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Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

FFS people, this was a good thing. take the win.

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White supremacy is terrorism.

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They are lying in pursuit of an agenda.

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Ah, the different things are different argument.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

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Michigan is a great lesson for Dems everywhere: when you have power…use it!

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You are here: Home / Past Elections / Election 2016 / Open Thread: John Ellis ‘Fredo’ Bush Did Not Have A Good Wednesday

Open Thread: John Ellis ‘Fredo’ Bush Did Not Have A Good Wednesday

by Anne Laurie|  October 29, 201510:56 am| 130 Comments

This post is in: Election 2016, JEB! = John Ellis Not-Bush 2016, Republican Stupidity

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Asked about his debate performance, Bush snapped: “It’s not a performance. I’m running for president of the United States."

— Michael Finnegan (@finneganLAT) October 29, 2015

So… Not so good? https://t.co/9lnTCLvYtM

— Bob Schooley (@Rschooley) October 29, 2015

Great moments in Jeb! rhetoric: “I don’t believe that America’s days are, you know, deeply going down.” #CNBCGOPDebate

— daveweigel (@daveweigel) October 29, 2015

This is why I’m running for president. #GOPDebate https://t.co/Nhw3OFX3e7

— Jeb Bush (@JebBush) October 28, 2015

Adam Gabbatt, at the Guardian –

Visually it’s beautiful. There’s a sunrise! Someone welding something. A jazzy shot in the window of a car’s rear view mirror.

Unfortunately for Jeb! the images don’t quite detract from what he is saying, which is … strange.

“There’s no way that Barack Obama or the progessive liberals in Washington can take away from the bigness of this place,” he says. He is referring to America.

I looked bigness up and apparently it’s a real word.

Anyway while Bush was governor of Florida “we turned the systems upside down that weren’t working”, so suck on that Donald Trump. Suck on that, gravity.

The video is worth watching for the euphoric backing track alone. Fetch the glow sticks! Enjoy the bigness!

That loud SNAP you heard in the first hour was the checkbooks of possible Jeb! donors closing. #CNBCGOPDebate

— daveweigel (@daveweigel) October 29, 2015

Jeb: "I, too, love fantastical sports. Like other humans, imaginary entertainment is something I engage in, enjoyment-wise." #GOPDebate

— John D. Brougher (@johnbrougher) October 29, 2015

Jeb Bush Inching Podium Closer To Center Of Stage During Commercial Breaks https://t.co/7qFl1d8aln #GOPDebate pic.twitter.com/Q7mdCmRHTb

— The Onion (@TheOnion) October 29, 2015

Bush campaign manager Danny Diaz tonight: “46% of New Hampshire voters decide in the last week.” Which is… not what you say if you won

— daveweigel (@daveweigel) October 29, 2015

Michael Steele (the RNC one, not Boehner/Bush one) says of Jeb post-debate: "You can stick a fork in it."

— Philip Rucker (@PhilipRucker) October 29, 2015

INBOX: Jeb Bush announces endorsement by Dan Quayle

— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) October 28, 2015

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Reader Interactions

130Comments

  1. 1.

    The Moar You Know

    October 29, 2015 at 11:06 am

    Again, I maintain the only reason he’s in this at all is to shut mom and dad up. He has the manner of a ten-year old boy being dragged out with mom to go shopping for clothes.

    He’ll end this pretty soon, I think. He can say “I tried” and go back to building ships in a bottle or bailing Columba out of Customs jail or whatever it is he does for fun.

  2. 2.

    japa21

    October 29, 2015 at 11:06 am

    Dan Quayle? Well that does it. Bush has my vote now. RtR was right, Bush is the laser beam coming down the track. Too bad he missed the “Bridge is out” sign.

  3. 3.

    Eric U.

    October 29, 2015 at 11:06 am

    I don’t see why rich donors would give to Trump. Although that’s how he had gone bankrupt so many times without personal bankruptcy

  4. 4.

    Jon Wiesman

    October 29, 2015 at 11:06 am

    Yesterday in Zandar’s Rubio thread I said I thought he was the strongest GOP candidate, and after last night, I believe it more than ever. He scares me because he can win. The media fawns all over him even though his policy proposals are no different than any other Republican. Yes, both Hillary and Bernie would shred him in a debate on substance, but he will look good and is an effective dodger and the voters have shown a tendency to prefer amiable, youngish, “comfortable-in-his-skin” dolts over technocrats.

    Rubio can win, and we shouldn’t take it lightly.

  5. 5.

    RSA

    October 29, 2015 at 11:07 am

    Everybody loves an underdog. But an overdog? Well…

  6. 6.

    Eric U.

    October 29, 2015 at 11:08 am

    @Jon Wiesman: any of these clowns can win, that’s what’s scary

  7. 7.

    bemused

    October 29, 2015 at 11:09 am

    Jebzzzz is too easy to fluster. It’s impossible and horrifying to imagine him as president meeting with Putin.

  8. 8.

    Ryan

    October 29, 2015 at 11:09 am

    “I, too, love fantastical sports. Like other humans, imaginary entertainment is something I engage in, enjoyment-wise.”

    You know who else was an avid fan of sport? Mittens!

    Did that Onion thing actually happen?

  9. 9.

    Amir Khalid

    October 29, 2015 at 11:11 am

    @Jon Wiesman:
    There is a difference between being the Republicans’ strongest candidate and their least weak one; if I understand you right, you seem to be describing Marco Rubio as the latter.

  10. 10.

    benw

    October 29, 2015 at 11:11 am

    I love the name Ellis (one of my sons is named Ellis) and I’m annoyed this schmuck has it. I’m petty like that.

  11. 11.

    Mike E

    October 29, 2015 at 11:13 am

    Leave ¡Jeb! alooooone!

  12. 12.

    gene108

    October 29, 2015 at 11:13 am

    @Eric U.:

    any of these clowns can win, that’s what’s scary

    I don’t blame the candidates.

    I blame the voters, who – in their ideal world – would like to have even greater levels of stupid and crazy, and feel the current crop of Republicans are tip toeing around telling the truth to power because of the liberal media and political correctness.

  13. 13.

    Tim C.

    October 29, 2015 at 11:15 am

    @Jon Wiesman: His weak spot is some very very shady stuff that went on when he was in local government in Florida. When even politico (warning link to there) says a Republican has some corruption issues, it’s real.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2015/03/marco-rubios-house-of-horrors-116075

    Long story boring, if he starts surging in the primary, there’s some real stuff the other players of the hunger games can use on him. Now if he makes it out of the primary, the media will pretend this real stuff = made up stuff about Benghazi! But I don’t think he’s as strong as I used to.

  14. 14.

    Tom

    October 29, 2015 at 11:16 am

    @Jon Wiesman: I’m not sure “comfortable in his skin” is a phrase I would apply to Marco Rubio.

  15. 15.

    Elizabelle

    October 29, 2015 at 11:17 am

    “There’s no way that Barack Obama or the progessive liberals in Washington can take away from the bigness of this place,” he says. He is referring to America.

    That’s what makes me so sick about the Bush family and Republican candidates.

    They truly are polarizing, and then they project and blame Obama and others, who are pretty forthright about being there to represent ALL their constituents/citizens.

  16. 16.

    M31

    October 29, 2015 at 11:19 am

    I love how the campaign season was specifically organized by the RNC to avoid the 2012-type shit show.

    I can’t wait until the 2020 plan to avoid the 2016-style shitshow.

    The 2020 shitshow is going to be amazing.

  17. 17.

    Elizabelle

    October 29, 2015 at 11:19 am

    @Jon Wiesman: Any Republican — any Republican — will get a lot of help from the media. Which is owned by big corporations and has more fealty to share price and tax considerations than honesty or accuracy.

    But can they truly drag a dreg of a candidate over the finish line? Maybe not. A lot of Americans are very wary about their economic standing and their families’ prospects. Are they going to hand their lives over to Republicans, who only look out for the very, very wealthy?

    I don’t think so.

  18. 18.

    Bruce K

    October 29, 2015 at 11:20 am

    That tweet about the Quayle endorsement was snark, right? Because I can’t think of anyone this side of Paul von Hindenburg whose endorsement would come closer to a death knell.

  19. 19.

    shell

    October 29, 2015 at 11:21 am

    I looked bigness up and apparently it’s a real word.

    Its a perfectly cromulant word!

  20. 20.

    low-tech cyclist

    October 29, 2015 at 11:22 am

    I do believe that Jeb’s chances are, you know, deeply going down.

  21. 21.

    Matt McIrvin

    October 29, 2015 at 11:23 am

    Climate change can take away from the bigness of Florida!

  22. 22.

    Elizabelle

    October 29, 2015 at 11:23 am

    @Tim C.: Interesting how Fiorina keeps throwing out the “corrupt administration” rhetoric — which is garbage. Pre-emptive, but there’s no there there, as with the Planned Parenthood videos.

    I look forward to what our comedian class will do with the candidates and their platforms and speeches, closer to the primaries. They’re more likely to keep us safe from harm and lies than our professional and overpaid MSM pundits and “journalists.”

  23. 23.

    debbie

    October 29, 2015 at 11:24 am

    The GOP’s ultimate meme: Cruz has an audiographic memory! That’s why he sounds so rehearsed! Yeah, that’s the ticket!

    Glenn Beck started pushing this yesterday as the real benefit of a Cruz presidency: His memory would make him an awesome presence at the negotiating table!

    smh

  24. 24.

    Matt McIrvin

    October 29, 2015 at 11:24 am

    @Elizabelle: Confident, brazen lying seems to be her thing. Unfortunately fact-checking these days has about a sixty-second turnaround.

  25. 25.

    debbie

    October 29, 2015 at 11:26 am

    @Elizabelle:

    I was too late at the last thread, but speaking of Carley:

    RWNJs are clamoring for a one-on-one debate between Carly and Hillary. They’re sure Carly will tear Hillary limb from limb and expose her as the lying liaress she is.

    I think otherwise. I’d bet the ranch that the first words out of Hillary’s mouth will be a litany of Carly’s own lies about Planned Parenthood, HP, her step-daughter, and on and on.

    I hope the stage lighting is exceptional. I know they’ll be there, but it will be tough discerning any tears on Carly’s sourpuss face.

    /cattiness

  26. 26.

    Yatsuno

    October 29, 2015 at 11:27 am

    I’m starting to warm the idea that Dr Ben Carson might just win the Republican primary. Which would be a DISASTER for the Republicans regardless of his Uncle Ruckus mumblings. He really has no clue what he’s talking about, and Hillary would make that clear. Doesn’t matter as he gets 45% out of the gate. It’s getting the margins that matter.

  27. 27.

    maya

    October 29, 2015 at 11:28 am

    Jeb$ should load up on the beans and cut one at the next d-bait. Who knows, the old white man’s party voters might find resonance.

  28. 28.

    Chris

    October 29, 2015 at 11:28 am

    @The Moar You Know:

    I believe that.

    There may also be an element of “but I’m the smart one! I’M the the smart one! And I was passed over!” sibling rivalry.

  29. 29.

    different-church-lady

    October 29, 2015 at 11:30 am

    You keep calling him Fredo — do you really think W’s gonna order Karl Rove to shoot him in a speedboat in Kennebunkport Harbor after Babs dies?

  30. 30.

    Paul in KY

    October 29, 2015 at 11:31 am

    @Tom: Rubio does seem to be good at Dubya’s debate tacticularity of shrugging off the distasteful facts with ‘when I was younger, I did some young stuff’ and then pivoting to ‘this gotcha politics is why we is not great anymore’ blather, blather (and doing it with a straight face & not tiring of doing it over & over & over).

  31. 31.

    Peale

    October 29, 2015 at 11:32 am

    I didn’t know that Obama was trying to make the country smaller. Jeb going for the Agenda 21 conspiracy vote or something?

  32. 32.

    jl

    October 29, 2015 at 11:32 am

    Yeah, there is a tiny to moderate chance any of these failed game show contestants can win. It’s like the chance of an asteroid hitting the earth or s super volcano eruption, any chance of it happening >> 0 requires serious attention.

    I’ll probably be banned for saying this, but I am thinking of registering GOP and starting a draft Romney campaign. Sometimes a really crummy insurance policy is more than the best you can hope for.

  33. 33.

    Paul in KY

    October 29, 2015 at 11:33 am

    @Bruce K: Alan Keyes?

  34. 34.

    Paul in KY

    October 29, 2015 at 11:34 am

    @Yatsuno: A black 7th day Adventist should do very well in the South.

  35. 35.

    Paul in KY

    October 29, 2015 at 11:35 am

    @different-church-lady: Not Rove, silly. They have goons for that sort of work. Karl would probably wet himself if ordered to actually murder someone.

  36. 36.

    The Moar You Know

    October 29, 2015 at 11:36 am

    I’m starting to warm the idea that Dr Ben Carson might just win the Republican primary.

    @Yatsuno: He won’t. He has an incurable melanin issue. Right now it’s all good, he’s their buddy. Their sidekick.

    Once the GOP voter realizes he might be their boss, that will be the end of his candidacy.

    You keep calling him Fredo — do you really think W’s gonna order Karl Rove to shoot him in a speedboat in Kennebunkport Harbor after Babs dies?

    @different-church-lady: OMG I could absolutely see that happening.

  37. 37.

    Omnes Omnibus

    October 29, 2015 at 11:37 am

    @Paul in KY: I am having trouble thinking of a state that Carson might win. I would expect that GOP voters would stay home in droves.

  38. 38.

    Poopyman

    October 29, 2015 at 11:37 am

    @jl: Save your effort. I’m sure the PTB are already figuring out how Mittens becomes the nominee. And I’m betting that it would be at the convention, or even after, because rules are for the little people.

  39. 39.

    Amir Khalid

    October 29, 2015 at 11:37 am

    @different-church-lady:
    George W is no Michael Corleone. On the other hand, one could see Bar finding it in herself to do such a thing.

  40. 40.

    Hoodie

    October 29, 2015 at 11:40 am

    Now that Jeb is cratering, there might be an interesting dynamic with Cruz, Rubio and Trump. Trump is still what the people want. He’s far more entertaining. Now, having surpassed Bush, Rubio has to take on Trump. Cruz doesn’t want Rubio to win that battle and will want to gang up on Rubio with Trump to retain the possibility of being Trump’s VP or, even better, inheriting Trump’s supporters if Trump falls. I still think Carson is going to end up Herman Cain’d, he’s just too crazy and something is going to come out.

  41. 41.

    Tripod

    October 29, 2015 at 11:40 am

    @The Moar You Know:

    JEB¡ interviewing with zombie Pat Roberston seems like something his elderly parents would suggest – rather than a heads up political operation in the here and now.

  42. 42.

    schrodinger's cat

    October 29, 2015 at 11:43 am

    @Amir Khalid: Actually I think the Corleone family had far more scruples than the Bush family. Even their scale of devastation is nowhere in the same league.

  43. 43.

    schrodinger's cat

    October 29, 2015 at 11:43 am

    So possessors of cable, who won the debate yesterday?

  44. 44.

    dmsilev

    October 29, 2015 at 11:45 am

    @schrodinger’s cat: Hillary.

  45. 45.

    benw

    October 29, 2015 at 11:45 am

    @schrodinger’s cat: God, freedom, America, and small flag lapel pins. And the Royals.

  46. 46.

    Amir Khalid

    October 29, 2015 at 11:46 am

    @schrodinger’s cat:
    Hillary. That’s the most popular answer.

  47. 47.

    Paul in KY

    October 29, 2015 at 11:47 am

    @Omnes Omnibus: He might barely win S. Carolina or Alabama or Mississippi, 51 – 49 over whomever we put up. Maybe TN also.

    Some of the voters might not realize he is black.

  48. 48.

    schrodinger's cat

    October 29, 2015 at 11:47 am

    @dmsilev: What if I restricted the top prize to the people present on stage? MSM bots are drooling over comb over Rubio.

  49. 49.

    schrodinger's cat

    October 29, 2015 at 11:48 am

    @Amir Khalid: I can’t believe that you subjected yourself to the CNBC drek.

  50. 50.

    Chris

    October 29, 2015 at 11:48 am

    Please tell me my email alerts are just fucking with me and Paul Ryan did not just get elected Speaker of the House.

  51. 51.

    Patricia Kayden

    October 29, 2015 at 11:49 am

    That Onion tweet is spot on. It really looks as if JEB! is closer to Trump’s podium than he needs to be. LOL.

    @Hoodie: Looks like we’ll end up with Rubio as the standing candidate for the GOP then because Trump and Cruz seem too much like jokers. Trump is completely a joke and Cruz is too caustic. Rubio seems green to me and I can just imagine Secretary Clinton chewing him to bits during debates.

  52. 52.

    xian

    October 29, 2015 at 11:49 am

    @debbie: he wouldn’t need a telepromptr!

  53. 53.

    schrodinger's cat

    October 29, 2015 at 11:50 am

    @Chris: Yes Ryan is the “non-establishment” Speaker, than FC wants. He was the Vice-Presidential candidate, you don’t get more establishment than that. Somewhere in NoVa, Eric Cantor is crying alone.

  54. 54.

    Omnes Omnibus

    October 29, 2015 at 11:51 am

    @schrodinger’s cat: From the parts I watched, Kasich was the only one who seemed to be operating in a fact-based world. Of course, that does him no favors with the GOP base.

  55. 55.

    schrodinger's cat

    October 29, 2015 at 11:53 am

    @schrodinger’s cat: not “than” that.

  56. 56.

    Cacti

    October 29, 2015 at 11:54 am

    Even 538 is now saying that candidate Jeb is probably screwed.

    Excerpt:

    Bush’s “fundamentals” aren’t all that strong. He entered the debate with middling favorability ratings and polling at about 7 percent nationally. His endorsements have all but dried up: just two since Labor Day and none in the past three weeks, according to our endorsement tracker. His third-quarter fundraising totals were mediocre. This wasn’t a case like that of Hillary Clinton, who even at her worst moments was polling at 45 percent and had the overwhelming support of the Democratic establishment. … Bush is running a conventional campaign. It’s not as though he has all that much grassroots support: Only 3 percent of his fundraising has come from small donors. Instead, Bush needs the support of Republican elites — and favorable media coverage — to signify to reluctant Republican voters that he’s a viable nominee. And … before the debate, major Bush donors were fretting openly to reporters (not just swiping at Bush anonymously) that his campaign was in a potential “death spiral.”

  57. 57.

    Patricia Kayden

    October 29, 2015 at 11:54 am

    @Yatsuno: Nah. There is no way that a party which hates Black people’s guts is going to vote for Dr. Carson. No way. He’s just the Herman Cain for 2016 and nothing more. I wouldn’t be surprised if he drops out before the first primary. Unless he can magically change his race, his candidacy is d.o.a.

    Apparently, a woman got up at a Trump rally to say that Trump’s wife would bring class back into the First Lady. Another dig at Michelle Obama, of course, which makes no sense since she is one of the classiest women to ever grace the White House. But according to Republican racists, a Black woman like Michelle (educated, gorgeous, fit, sophisticated) has no class and looks like a gorilla. Sick of them.

  58. 58.

    trollhattan

    October 29, 2015 at 11:54 am

    How can a three-generation uber-connected shitheel like John Bush possibly claim “D.C. outsider” status? It’s like a mosquito claiming to be, “not like those other mosquitoes, no, I understand your problems and issues, unlike those bloodsuckers. I’m a different kind of mosquito.”

    Or maybe he’s an outsider due to different zipcode. “I measured and Florida is, like, a bazillion feet from D.C., so there.”

  59. 59.

    NotMax

    October 29, 2015 at 11:55 am

    @schrodinger’s cat

    Nobody “won.”

    However, Bush lost.

  60. 60.

    schrodinger's cat

    October 29, 2015 at 11:55 am

    @Omnes Omnibus: I would say it hurts him with the base. The base is base and its motto seems to be “the crazier the better”.

  61. 61.

    srv

    October 29, 2015 at 11:56 am

    There just must be something in the water in Kennebunkport. When W first ran for governor, he could actually keep a complete sentence in his head, which was frustrating to his opposition. Then he turned really stupid, which frustrated them even more.

    But Dumberer in Dumb & Dumber just isn’t going to be the draw this time.

    You kinda wonder what their family gatherings must be like, all of them speaking Bushgrammer.

    BLOWOUT:

    Donald Trump emerged the victor of Wednesday night’s third GOP presidential debate, according to flash polls of three websites’ users.
    …
    Drudge has Trump beating his closest competition during the event by approximately 32 points among its respondents. He earned 54 percent compared to 22 percent for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Drudge’s second place Republican contender.

    Time, meanwhile, has Trump besting the rest of the GOP’s 2016 presidential field by 26 points among its participants.

    And CNBC has Trump leading rest of the Republican pack by approximately 26 points over second place. He takes 46 percent, compared with 20 percent for Cruz.

  62. 62.

    Omnes Omnibus

    October 29, 2015 at 11:57 am

    @schrodinger’s cat: I thought I sort of mentioned that in my second sentence.

  63. 63.

    schrodinger's cat

    October 29, 2015 at 11:57 am

    @Patricia Kayden: They wouldn’t know what class was if it bit them in the ass. Michelle has more class in her toe-nail than any of these Trump supporters have in their entire being.

  64. 64.

    schrodinger's cat

    October 29, 2015 at 11:57 am

    @Omnes Omnibus: So you did. I was agreeing with you.

  65. 65.

    amk

    October 29, 2015 at 11:58 am

    @schrodinger’s cat: whiny temper

  66. 66.

    Gin & Tonic

    October 29, 2015 at 11:58 am

    @Elizabelle: I still maintain that Letterman’s “You want me to call you a cab, John?” was McCain’s death knell.

  67. 67.

    Patricia Kayden

    October 29, 2015 at 11:58 am

    @Jon Wiesman: If Dems sit out the election, then yes any Republican can win. Hopefully Dems understand how important this election is — especially for those of us who are minorities and/or female. Rubio is just as rightwing crazy as any other Republican running and his presidency would be disastrous. He abandoned immigration reform to appease White Republican extremists so I don’t know if he would even get the Latino vote.

  68. 68.

    Omnes Omnibus

    October 29, 2015 at 11:58 am

    @schrodinger’s cat: Got it.

  69. 69.

    the Conster

    October 29, 2015 at 12:00 pm

    @Patricia Kayden:

    Trump’s wife posed nude or did a crotch shot or something, so that’s what that fucktard meant by being classy. Everything a wingnut says, the opposite is true. They really do completely occupy upside down world.

  70. 70.

    Woodrow/asim

    October 29, 2015 at 12:01 pm

    @The Moar You Know: I’d not count out GOP voters w/Carson. As an African-American who’s lived in SC most of my life, there’s Tim Scott and Nikki Haley as two pieces of evidence.

    Racism, esp. down here, isn’t so much about “hating” black people, as it really is about keeping us in our place. We can be given power if we promise to not just avoid rocking the boat, but to help ensure no one else does, either. They can even give a little — Scott said some on-point things about racism once, as I recall, and Haley, of course, basically said “confederate flag needs to come down.”

    This crap is a bit more nuanced that “GOPers won’t vote Black/Asian/etc.”, and it’s important we keep that in mind.

  71. 71.

    MazeDancer

    October 29, 2015 at 12:02 pm

    Joe Scar does not like Rubio. Maybe it’s a Florida thing? Jealousy thing? Chris Christie worship? Don’t know.

    This AM, while crediting “Marco”, as they call him, with a good night, Joe said, out loud, Marco lied. That word – “lied”. Apparently Marco lied about his personal finances, and the moderator did have the facts straight. And some other things I can’t recall. But Marco lies was the topline.

    Joe credited Marco’s good showing with how bad the other candidates – except for Christie and Cruz – were. And how poorly Jeb did in coming back after the Rubio response to absentee record/job shirking.

    Joe’s anti-Marco thing is semi-interesting. The Christie love is not. Neither he, nor fawning Mika, or the other GOP sychophants mentioned Christie’s legal problems as part of why he has no appeal.

  72. 72.

    Marc

    October 29, 2015 at 12:03 pm

    @Amir Khalid: No, Dubya is clearly the Sonny of that little clan.

  73. 73.

    SatanicPanic

    October 29, 2015 at 12:05 pm

    I’m calling it right now- Rubio will be exposed as exactly a big of a joke candidate as Christie, Kasich, Walker, Jeb!, and anyone else we can come up with in the last 10 years. Rubio is a loser and has no chance at winning the general. I doubt he’ll even beat Trump for the nomination.

  74. 74.

    Calouste

    October 29, 2015 at 12:05 pm

    @schrodinger’s cat: The bookies are giving shorter odds on Rubio, Carson, Cruz, and Christie, and longer odds on everyone else.

  75. 75.

    Frankensteinbeck

    October 29, 2015 at 12:10 pm

    @Yatsuno:
    He won’t. In this insane primary, Carson is the only character I completely discount. Trump has jumbled things so badly that even Jeb:( might have a shot. Carson has none. @Paul in KY said it, but it deserves repeating for emphasis. Carson’s supporters are specifically the people who want you to know they’re not racists, they just don’t want their kids going to school with blacks. They will love him right up until they think he has any chance of becoming the nominee, and then they will abandon him en masse. They can love a black sidekick, but never a black boss.

  76. 76.

    Marc

    October 29, 2015 at 12:11 pm

    @Paul in KY:

    A black 7th day Adventist should do very well in the South.

    He’d do very well in the states the GOP is a lock to win, which is basically all of the South except for Florida, Virginia, and maybe North Carolina.

    Remember, even the craziest, least qualified candidate – and Ben Carson is certainly that – starts with 45% of the vote.

  77. 77.

    Tripod

    October 29, 2015 at 12:13 pm

    @Cacti:

    He’s running to the GOP electorate and interests of 20-25 years ago.

    The Dixiecons have taken over.

  78. 78.

    Archon

    October 29, 2015 at 12:13 pm

    @Elizabelle:

    Supply-side tax policy being pushed by all the Republican candidates is indefensible at this point, not even the corporate media will try to defend it. They will give a hearing to other aspects of Republicans fiscal policy (like regulation) and definitely pretend like the Republicans have a coherent foreign policy alternative to Obama.

  79. 79.

    Amir Khalid

    October 29, 2015 at 12:14 pm

    @schrodinger’s cat:
    No, just the Guardian liveblog.

  80. 80.

    benw

    October 29, 2015 at 12:17 pm

    @Patricia Kayden: Michelle is rad.

  81. 81.

    Paul in KY

    October 29, 2015 at 12:19 pm

    @Woodrow/asim: I do think he would win S. Carolina. Unless John Calhoun comes back & runs as a Democrat, we’re not winning that nuthouse.

  82. 82.

    schrodinger's cat

    October 29, 2015 at 12:20 pm

    @Marc: You don’t know that. Last time around the crazy candidate was in the VP slot. If the top candidate is the crazy one, you might see GOP’s share going lower than 45%.

  83. 83.

    catclub

    October 29, 2015 at 12:21 pm

    @Paul in KY:

    not tiring of doing it over & over & over)

    Definition of a politician and the stump speech.

  84. 84.

    Paul in KY

    October 29, 2015 at 12:22 pm

    @Marc: Hope it gets put to the test.

  85. 85.

    Mnemosyne (iPhone)

    October 29, 2015 at 12:22 pm

    @different-church-lady:

    A girl can dream, can’t she?

  86. 86.

    cmorenc

    October 29, 2015 at 12:22 pm

    @Jon Wiesman:

    The media fawns all over him even though his policy proposals are no different than any other Republican. Yes, both Hillary and Bernie would shred him in a debate on substance, but he will look good and is an effective dodger and the voters have shown a tendency to prefer amiable, youngish, “comfortable-in-his-skin” dolts over technocrats.

    Prediction: in politics, the MSM praises a politician so they can lift them up in order to tear them down later. He will not indefinitely continue getting the kind of media free pass he gets now while the media is tongue-washing him. If nothing else, they will eventually refocus on the question of how Rubio can be a prudent, good manager of government finances when he’s a bit spotty with how well he’s done with his personal finances. Fortunately, because we’re in primary season rather than general election season, for now the democrats can let the media do the work for them when the media decides the horse race needs a bit of harshing Rubio up to keep things interesting.

  87. 87.

    Another Holocene Human

    October 29, 2015 at 12:24 pm

    @Patricia Kayden: They have hate goggles. They hate so much they shitted up a thread on another blog where they were talking about a gorgeous reno of a room in the WH and the haters were all “How could Moochelle ruin that wonderful [mustard yellow mid century Colonial Revival] decorating by Jackie O, a real first lady DERP HATE DERP.”

    They missed the part where it had been redone between the 60s and now, I think by a Republican, in a predictably bland way.

    And mustard yellow Colonial Revival is the “just shoot me now” of interiors anyway, imo.

    Fucking haters.

  88. 88.

    Paul in KY

    October 29, 2015 at 12:24 pm

    @catclub: It worked for the smirking chimp, I don’t want it to work for Rudyio.

  89. 89.

    JPL

    October 29, 2015 at 12:25 pm

    @Marc: True. The South will be carried by whoever is the nominee because they want to see a change in the Supreme Court. The gay marriage ruling has the rabid ones, up in arms.

  90. 90.

    raven

    October 29, 2015 at 12:25 pm

    I love this shit, Facts and False Doctrines of the Seventh Day Adventist Church

  91. 91.

    catclub

    October 29, 2015 at 12:26 pm

    @Paul in KY: There were a good many Democratic voters in LA and MS who could not get themselves to vote for Obama. I bet there are actually a good number of GOP voters who will be the same way with a black GOP candidate. It would be an interesting idea to test.

  92. 92.

    Marc

    October 29, 2015 at 12:27 pm

    @schrodinger’s cat: That strikes me as a terrible, terrible strategy to stake a presidential election on.

    It’s fun to point and laugh at the crazies now, but remember that one of these crazies will have a nontrivial shot at being our next president.

  93. 93.

    catclub

    October 29, 2015 at 12:27 pm

    @Paul in KY: Being relentlessly on message, in spite of how stupid it makes you look to a small group of voters who pay attention, is still an asset with all the rest.

  94. 94.

    catclub

    October 29, 2015 at 12:30 pm

    @cmorenc:

    the question of how Rubio can be a prudent, good manager of government finances when he’s a bit spotty with how well he’s done with his personal finances.

    This is an advantage Bush has over Sarah Palin – being part of the inherited aristocracy of the US. Only people who grew up with no money get these questions.

  95. 95.

    schrodinger's cat

    October 29, 2015 at 12:32 pm

    @Marc: I am questioning the conventional wisdom, not saying that the potential Dem nominee should take anything for granted, no matter who is the Republican nominee.

  96. 96.

    catclub

    October 29, 2015 at 12:35 pm

    @Paul in KY:

    tacticularity

    I will not misunderestimate your ability to contrafibulate.

  97. 97.

    Paul in KY

    October 29, 2015 at 12:38 pm

    @catclub: No shit.

  98. 98.

    Bobby Thomson

    October 29, 2015 at 12:38 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: Iowa? And I’ve seen him leading in OK and TX. I’d be shocked if it happened, too, but he does have a lot of evangelical support.

  99. 99.

    Elie

    October 29, 2015 at 12:38 pm

    @Paul in KY:

    The Seven Day Adventists are not supportive of his stands against Muslims and his divisive tone. They have made those statements several times. Carson represents Carson but he is very weak sauce that will get more and more apparent as he gets more exposure.

    I also think that Rubio might be the flavor of the month but will not hold up under scrutiny — will come across weak and indecisive.

    Also, Trump is going to try to hurt anyone that gets too far ahead of him… that will definitely help, I think.

  100. 100.

    Bobby Thomson

    October 29, 2015 at 12:41 pm

    @Paul in KY: oh, we’re talking about the general? I think he’d do better than expected, but I also think it’s academic.

  101. 101.

    Omnes Omnibus

    October 29, 2015 at 12:42 pm

    @Bobby Thomson: The fact that he is leading in the GOP polls in Iowa does not by any means indicate that he has a shot at Iowa in the general election. Same with OK and TX.

  102. 102.

    Bobby Thomson

    October 29, 2015 at 12:47 pm

    @Cacti: Nate has started to pooh pooh any primary polls, saying they are all meaningless – except when they support his point. More than a little irony, given that he’s doing it to prop up his argument that Trump has a less than 5% chance at the nomination. So, leading in endorsements used to be everything because Trump has none, but now the clear endorsement leader is doomed over a one off debate interaction.

    His analysis of the Republican primaries just seems nakedly result-driven this year. YMMV.

  103. 103.

    cmorenc

    October 29, 2015 at 12:48 pm

    @catclub:

    . I bet there are actually a good number of GOP voters who will be the same way with a black GOP candidate. It would be an interesting idea to test.

    If so, their likely response will be to take a pass on turning out, or else vote for a fringe third-party candidate rather than vote for whomever the Democratic nominee is. To the considerable extent to which such voters live in deep-red southern states, their sitting out the Presidential vote won’t come remotely close to making any difference in their state’s electoral college vote. It is, however possible that even a relative handful of them, like even 5% of the GOP base sit out the Presidential vote in a razor-close swing state like Florida, that could make all the difference in the world.

  104. 104.

    Mnemosyne (iPhone)

    October 29, 2015 at 12:52 pm

    @Woodrow/asim:

    Good point. Remember, a big part of the point with the 27 percent thing that John Rogers wrote about is that race was *removed* from the equation because Obama and Keyes are both black and ran head to head. So that 27 percent will probably stand rock-solid even if Carson is the nominee.

  105. 105.

    Bobby Thomson

    October 29, 2015 at 12:53 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: your question didn’t appear to be so limited. But I think he actually would win at least 200 electoral votes. At a minimum. I also think it’s a thought experiment because Republicans don’t want to be forced to vote for a black man.

  106. 106.

    Jeffro

    October 29, 2015 at 12:56 pm

    @Marc:

    It’s fun to point and laugh at the crazies now, but remember that one of these crazies will have a nontrivial shot at being our next president.

    It will still be fun to point and laugh even when they settle on just one nominee and things. Get. REAL.

    I have to admit, I’m actually looking forward to Hillary (ok, ok, OR Bernie) taking any one of these clowns to the woodshed on live TV, not once but a few times. Sure I would prefer it be one of the easier, nuttier ones to beat…but the choice between the two parties could not be clearer.

  107. 107.

    Paul in KY

    October 29, 2015 at 12:56 pm

    @raven: Interesting. Thanks for the link.

  108. 108.

    Paul in KY

    October 29, 2015 at 12:59 pm

    @Elie: As Raven shows in the link, people who are active in Baptist, Pentecostal & other ‘evangelical’ sects of Protestantism think of 7th Day Adventists being about like Mormons.

  109. 109.

    Cervantes

    October 29, 2015 at 1:01 pm

    @Matt McIrvin:

    !

  110. 110.

    Paul in KY

    October 29, 2015 at 1:02 pm

    @cmorenc: Hillary would whup Carson in Florida. Would be razor thin (IMO) in Louisiana & Arkansas & maybe Georgia.

    Edit: Georgia would probably go GOP & not be razor-thin.

  111. 111.

    Jeffro

    October 29, 2015 at 1:02 pm

    This is classic: you see, the problem with the GOP debates is the format, people

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/ben-carson-rnc-cnbc-debate-complaints

    What would the good doctor prefer? That each candidate get a straight half hour of airtime from a fawning FOX reporter per Iowa poll point??

    I’m telling you, Hillary (ok, ok, OR Bernie) is going to give one unlucky klown the noogie of a lifetime once the primaries are over.

  112. 112.

    Cervantes

    October 29, 2015 at 1:06 pm

    @schrodinger’s cat:

    So possessors of cable, who won the debate yesterday?

    If you did not pay to watch it, then you’re among the winners.

  113. 113.

    Cervantes

    October 29, 2015 at 1:10 pm

    @schrodinger’s cat:

    Somewhere in NoVa, Eric Cantor is crying alone.

    All the way to the bank.

  114. 114.

    Matt McIrvin

    October 29, 2015 at 1:18 pm

    @Jeffro: A Trump v. Clinton one-on-one debate would be really historically uncharted waters. I imagine that if Trump just went flat-out misogynist on her he’d get the college bro vote, at least.

  115. 115.

    catclub

    October 29, 2015 at 1:19 pm

    @cmorenc:

    like even 5% of the GOP base sit out the Presidential vote in a razor-close swing state like Florida, that could make all the difference in the world.

    Interesting number. 11% of white voters voted for Obama in 2012/2008 in Mississippi. If 16-17% of them do, Obama wins Mississippi. How well does Clinton do if she gets that 5% more white voters? Can she get the same percentage and turnout
    of all the other Obama voters?

  116. 116.

    Matt McIrvin

    October 29, 2015 at 1:21 pm

    @Cervantes: I figure sometime in the 22nd century, Walt Disney World will be an artificial island with seawalls.

  117. 117.

    Elizabelle

    October 29, 2015 at 1:28 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: Yeah, that was classic.

    And the not knowing how many houses. And Palin. And suspending his campaign.

    Thinking back on all of that, and McCain still got a lot of votes. Jeebus.

  118. 118.

    gex

    October 29, 2015 at 1:28 pm

    @Woodrow/asim: Just wanted to appreciate this comment. Racism is never as cartoonish as we like to talk about it. It is very adaptable and sneaky and it affects the entire culture, not just non-blacks.

    ETA: This is why couching things in terms of privilege instead of hate or bias isn’t particularly helping. It’s the privilege they’re after.

  119. 119.

    Captain C

    October 29, 2015 at 1:40 pm

    @The Moar You Know: I wouldn’t be surprised in that scenario if it was Barb, herself, who either gave the orders or maybe even pulled the trigger.

    Also, to me, both Neil and Jeb seem like Fredo to me; I don’t think there’s a Michael in the Bush family (I can see Shrubya as Santino: gregarious, impulsive, put in charge when he clearly shouldn’t be/have been, and gets a lot of people killed).

  120. 120.

    Cervantes

    October 29, 2015 at 1:44 pm

    @Matt McIrvin:

    Well, they’ve got the “artificial island” part mastered already.

  121. 121.

    Matt McIrvin

    October 29, 2015 at 1:46 pm

    @Woodrow/asim: That’s what I’ve kind of figured too.

    I imagine they could rationalize a black President who is Ben Carson by figuring he’d be doing the bidding of the right people. Stereotypes work by stories; below the Klan level, there’s this large area on the bigotry spectrum in which people will be OK with individuals of the hated group doing any job you like, as long as they don’t do anything that reinforces a familiar story.

    It’s why, for decades, people said that the first black President would have to be a Republican, maybe Colin Powell. Instead we got Barack Obama, a Democrat with an African name that makes them think about Sixties black radicals, and who, for all his meet-them-halfway impulses, is openly liberal and calls racism racism. Most of the things he is and does tweaks one of their stories about the perfidy of black people, and it drives them around the bend. Carson, meanwhile, plays against that as hard as he can.

  122. 122.

    Captain C

    October 29, 2015 at 1:46 pm

    @The Moar You Know: I could actually see Barb, herself, as giving the orders in that scenario. I can almost see her pulling the trigger, but that might get icky stuff on her dress and besides, that kind of stuff is for the help to do.

    Also, I kind of see both Neil and Jeb as being Fredo, or at least Fredo-like. And I can definitely see Shrubya as Sonny; gregarious, impulsive, completely unqualified for leadership, and getting lots of people killed.

  123. 123.

    Captain C

    October 29, 2015 at 1:48 pm

    @Amir Khalid: And Amir beats me to it at #39.

  124. 124.

    jayjaybear

    October 29, 2015 at 1:52 pm

    @different-church-lady: Nah. That’s Bar’s call. Livia Soprano was a piker next to Bar.

  125. 125.

    dogwood

    October 29, 2015 at 2:03 pm

    ill be glad when Jeb is gone because every discussion of the the Bush family devolves into a extended Maureen Dowd column.

  126. 126.

    Uncle Cosmo

    October 29, 2015 at 3:07 pm

    @Woodrow/asim:

    Racism, esp. down here, isn’t so much about “hating” black people, as it really is about keeping us in our place. We can be given power if we promise to not just avoid rocking the boat, but to help ensure no one else does, either.

    This white geezer recalls a joke making the rounds of my lily-white public school in a blue-collar DINO ‘burb of Bawlmer something over 50 years back:

    Q: How do you keep the n*****rs out of the country club?
    A: Let just one of them in.

    One that, implicitly, would do yeoman work keeping the rest out. An overcredentialed imbecile like Carson would do quite nicely for those so inclined.

    (NB Hard to understand why working-class kids would be concerned about a country club’s membership…then again, there actually is a country club a couple of miles east of where I grew up. One college summer I delivered mail on the other side of the street from it. FTR I just perused the website & faces of color were in short supply–a couple of kids in the tennis section & one in the Membership tab on the main page.)

  127. 127.

    yet another jeff

    October 29, 2015 at 5:27 pm

    @Matt McIrvin:
    She was very good in Sales…

  128. 128.

    sloan

    October 29, 2015 at 7:39 pm

    Thing I don’t understand about Rubio is I keep reading that he has skeletons in his closet from Florida, hasn’t been vetted etc.

    And who better than Jeb! to ratfvck Rubio? I keep waiting for it and it keeps on not happening.

    When the hell is Jeb’s super pac going to release the Kraken and go for broke on Rubio? Why hold back?

    Marco really hasn’t faced any tough questions except why he’s shitty with his personal finances or why he bought a boat. Other than that he’s had a free pass.

  129. 129.

    Bitter Scribe

    October 29, 2015 at 9:36 pm

    I thought that Dan Quayle endorsement had to be a joke, but I looked it up and…

    Lizard. Shit.

  130. 130.

    JosieJ

    October 30, 2015 at 12:45 pm

    @Bruce K:

    Dick Cheney?

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