Just a quick comment on a recent Vox article:
But in a head-to-head matchup among Republican voters, Trump beats Rubio 57-43. That suggests that Trump’s ceiling, at least among Republicans, is far above his current 25 to 30 percent, and he may well benefit as weaker candidates drop out.
This actually makes sense given the current polling that we have seen in the Republican race. For most of the year, if you add up the combined polled support of Trump, Carson and Fiorina plus attribute some proportion of Ted Cruz’s vote as extraordinarily anti-Republican establishment vote, this faction is the dominant faction within the Republican primary electorate. The sum of Trump, Carson, Fiorina often is over 50% and usually closer to 60%. The favored Establishment candidates (Bush, Walker, Kasich, Christie, Rubio) have either dropped out, or combined can poll less then a quarter of the Republican primary electorate.
Primaries often see large swings as the differences between candidates are not stark. However it is easier for a person to switch support to a candidate who is running in the same cluster as the candidate that the person is switching support from, than for support to go to a candidate in a distant cluster. The anti-establishment lane in the GOP primary is bigger than the establishment, and one of the candidates can’t be pushed aside due to a lack of funds.
So when the question and answer space collapses to only a single establishment and a single non-establishment choice, people gravitate towards their closest option from their current preferred option. That means Trump is picking up all of his current support and the vast majority of the supporters of the other anti-establishment candidates while Rubio consolidates everyone else. And one faction right now is much bigger than the other.
goblue72
Count me amongst those who have long been thinking that when the primaries actually start, Trump will flame out. If, however, that does not happen, I will gladly eat my “Feel the Bern!” hat.
Because Clinton will castrate Trump on live television and glue them to that nest he calls a hairdo.
dmsilev
At least at the moment, all of the support Carson is losing seems to be going mainly to Cruz.
Also, it’s Fiorina.
azlib
I guess it comes down to how accurate the polls are with respect to who actually votes in the primaries. I too thought the Trump phenomena was a joke and it would eventually run it course. Now I am not so sure. The doomsday Republican scenario would be Trump gets something like 40+ percent of the delegates and then decides to run as an independent. In a 3 way presidential race, the popular vote could be split something like 45/40/15 which would be a rerun of 1992 with the Dem on top.
catclub
@dmsilev: I think jokes about Trump seeing Arabs celebrating in Jersey City on 9/11 should mention that the evidence is on the same tape the Fiorina watched that shows abortionists dismembering babies. Carson notes that the newsreel announcer was saying ‘Oh, the humanity’.
MattF
Another way of modeling it is that there’s a ceiling on the ‘establishment’ candidate group, i.e., Rubio, Jeb!, and maybe Christie. And, I guess, Kasich. All the R voters who bought the proposition that McCain/Romney would easily beat you-know-who, and now think they’ve been had, twice.
Another Holocene Human
It just occurred to me that when Trump talks about being able to “feel” when a terrorist attack is coming, in other words, he believes he has supernatural abilities, doesn’t that put him right in the definition of Narcissistic Personality Disorder? I know, I know, DSM wars and all that, but assuming NPD is a thing, believing you have special powers is one of the characteristics of NPD, isn’t it? (It’s also seen with some other, more benign personality disorders.)
He is pretty much walking, talking narcissism 24/7 (the lying, the bullying, the obsession with status) but it’s nice to have another piece of confirmation.
Another Holocene Human
Or that mainstream GOP candidates are taking their news from the RW puke funnel.
They woke up surprised one morning to find that a fascist candidate was leading the GOP primary polls for president.
We read about Father Callahan in history class in public school. Seems like our journos learned nothing.
Germy
@Another Holocene Human:
It’s exciting for them because it makes a good story. And they’re all rich enough not to care if he wins, or if Cruz wins, or even Christie. Their wealth insulates them from any negative consequences of a GOP takeover.
goblue72
@Another Holocene Human: If you read about Father Callahan in history class, you went to a pretty bad public school if they are teaching Stephan King novels as history.
Now, as far as Father Conklin goes – the media learned what they needed to – that Conklin at his peak got good ratings.
Cacti
Trump’s been feeding rhetorical chateaubriand steak to the crazies for months now.
They’re not going to settle for the establishment alternative after 8-years of a black man sleeping in the President’s bed.
They’re going to have their wild man candidate who lets his freak flag fly, and the RNC be damned.
Germy
@Another Holocene Human:
I think all Captains Of Industry create a mythology for themselves; that they have a sixth sense that guides them through business deals and investing. They see it as a combination of extreme intelligence as well as some extra… factor … that separates them from the rest of us (the help). They would never admit to themselves their success is based on luck, or a rigged game, or inherited wealth/opportunity.
In their minds, they’re superheroes.
MattF
@goblue72: You probably mean Father Coughlin.
Betty Cracker
ETA: Never mind!
goblue72
@Germy: Or psychopaths.
Germy
Off topic, I just read Frank Gifford’s brain was donated to science. They’re saying he had CTE.
goblue72
@MattF: Yes. Thank you. I read BJ on my phone. Barely able to comment in English sounding complete sentences on the thing.
Germy
@goblue72: well that trait helps them, but I’ve encountered quite a few in lower-middle management as well as the factory floor.
Jeffro
Richard, your post + dmsilev’s post (2) make me wonder, what happens when there’s a 3-way tie between Rubio, Cruz, and Trump?
Establishment, Religious Right, and Pure Anger/Racist wings of the party…if they run neck-and-neck through the primaries, I guess we get to the convention and then it’s a pure game of chicken: “You be my VP…no, YOU be MY VP!…etc”
I think we get to Trump/Cruz that way but heck who knows?
goblue72
@Germy: Is that disease you get from spending too much time listening to Kathie Lee?
Germy
I still wouldn’t be surprised if they fell away one by one (like an Agatha Christie novel) and Jeb was left standing. I’m probably the only person left here who still believes that…
Brendan in Charlotte
@Germy: Trump’s sixth sense apparently tells him when to file for bankruptcy
Richard Mayhew
@Jeffro: Are those factions too different from each other?
My thought in that scenario is a grind it out primary where Cruz drops first due to lack of funds as it could be a billion dollar primary for Trump and Rubio (plus supporting Super Pacs) and then a VP offering.
Germy
@Brendan in Charlotte: Trump’s sixth sense apparently tells him when to file for bankruptcy
Tingles all over… “Call my lawyer!”
cmorenc
I’d be a lot more entertained by the prospect of Trump making it to the general and getting soundly defeated by near-landslide margins, if only I was 100% sure he would lose instead of only 99%. The fact that there are this many angry, crazy far-right people in this country determined to yank the country radically in their direction is frightening, as is the portion of low-information voters who are dissatisfied, but not ideologically passionate and want a daddy figure who will fix stuff. And if they succeed in winning the Presidency, it will be the radical glibertarians vs the radical fascists (both secular and religious) struggling for control of that revolutionary radical course.
feebog
At this point, with the Iowa Caucus just over 60 days away, we should be looking at who has put together some semblance of an organization on the ground. I have seen almost no media coverage (what a surprise) on this aspect of the nominating process. What does Trump’s ground game look like at this stage, and what are the plans for the next 60 to 90 days? Also absolutely no coverage on what states will be proportional and what states will be winner take all.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Jeffro: If that comes to pass, ‘The Donald’ should get a food taster.
BillinGlendaleCA
@feebog: It’s ‘winner take all’ after March 15th.
catclub
@Jeffro:
Everybody says there is no way there will be a brokered convention, since it has been so long.
In the case of Rubio, Cruz and Trump each holding about 1/3 of the Delegates?: I predict the GOP picks Rubio and Trump goes third party.
I also remember writing a good long time ago that Cruz is dangerous and being told he has zero chance.
I might go search for those posts.
MattF
@BillinGlendaleCA: And a Dolchstoß-proof vest.
Lihtox
@Germy: I would be a *little* surprised if that happened, but not very.
Jeffro
@Richard Mayhew: I’m pretty sure Cruz has very significant super PAC funding plus a couple sugar daddies. Rubio might also (that one sports magnate comes to mind, and – literally – sugar interests) but Cruz will certainly have the funds.
I think as Carson fades somewhat, Cruz benefits most directly. As all the other establishment Rs fade, Rubio benefits. It really does look like it might come down to a 3-way tie or near-tie.
feebog
@Richard Mayhew:
Cruz is second only to Jeb! in the money race. He has very carefully hoarded it while Walker and Jeb! have burned through it. As some of the evangelical favorites like Santorum and Huckabee drop out, Cruz will pick up more support. He is well positioned at this point. Scares the crap out of me that this guy could ever have a chance to be POTUS.
Bill Arnold
@Another Holocene Human:
Somebody here has called it “ingrown ego”.
cmorenc
@feebog:
That’s because neither of these factors are yet as useful to furthering an easily understood horse-race narrative as they will in the last few days before the respective caucuses and primaries. And the media wants a dramatic story without more complication that people who aren’t political junkies will likely sustain enough interest to pay attention. The media wants attention first, a story second, and only third true substantive information.
MattF
@feebog: Also, Cruz plays televangelist to the masses but plays Harvard lawyer to the money men. It’s a classic con; you convince the people with money that they’re in on the game.
catclub
@BillinGlendaleCA: That is not necessarily the case:
This is from the GOP website:
I did not look into how the State GOP parties have decided to do it ( and if they can change it if they don’t like the looks of things).
Calouste
Looking through that poll, it also has Cruz beating Rubio 55-45, and Trump beating Cruz 57-43. All three beat Carson, although Rubio only 51-49. They didn’t bother polling against Bush, because he is at 6% at the moment.
The mainline:
Trump 36 Rubio 14 Cruz 12 Carson 10 Bush 6 vanity & grifting campaigns 4 or less
Mike J
@Another Holocene Human:
Father Coughlin had huge ratings. They learned plenty.
craigie
@Germy:
This. Absolutely this.
jl
@feebog: The state polls are more meaningful for the relevant states as the caucus and primary dates approach, but I agree the real test is who can turn polling numbers into votes. From what I read, Cruz and Trump both concentrated on building real GOTV organizations for the early primary states, and their campaigns have generated enough enthusiasm and confidence that they can attract organization talent.
There is a website, that I keep telling myself I will bookmark, but never do, that gives the staffing details of each campaign in each state, so that will give some information.
Germy
@Calouste:
Leonard Zelig: [in a hypnotic trance] My brother beat me. My sister beat my brother. My father beat my sister and my brother and me. My mother beat my father and my sister and me and my brother. The neighbors beat our family. The people down the block beat the neighbors and our family.
Calouste
@feebog: That misses the fact that Trump self-finances, and has said that he is willing to put $ 1 billion in the race. Whether he does that is a different matter, and I doubt he has anywhere near that amount in liquid assets anyway. But he doesn’t have to spend much money on fundraising, which takes a serious bite out of the money actually being raised.
Mike J
trollhattan
@Mike J:
I’ll take “meta” for a thousand, Alex.
Germy
@Mike J: I wish all that stuff got uploaded someplace off-site, where they couldn’t touch it.
Elie
I have hope that while Trump dominates the national polls and IA and NH polls, that this all has to be worked out primary by primary. See this article I found on 538 a month or so back. Had some thoughts about why winning that nomination might not be as slam dunk for Trump. At the time, Carson was still a factor and he is shrinking some since then. Rubio is hanging on, maybe increasing some but not yet a threat to Trump.
Quitting is a problem for Trump — he will not allow himself to be defeated and I don’t seem him ever backing out or he would have done so, so I am not sure how this is going to end. My guess is that there is going to be buckets of blood on the GOP walls at some point…. Buckets.
feebog
@catclub:
Yeah, as I read it on Wiki and also at the Green Papers, there really is no way of knowing at this point what states will be proportional and which will be winner take all. Assuming that all the states before March 14 remain proportional, that comes to about half the delegates. It’s also important to remember that red states get significant numbers of “bonus” delegates, which upsizes their influence. A state like Alabama gets as many delegates as say Illinois, because of the bonus delegates. I think this weights towards the more conservative delegates, like Cruz and certainly works against Jeb!.
Calouste
@Elie:
That’s the only thing he has to do. Bill Clinton is the only candidate to have won the nomination despite not winning either of IA or NH, but he was up against to local candidates in both of them. The free publicity/bandwagonjumping a candidate gets from winning those early two states is as good as decisive.
FDRLincoln
I still have contacts in Iowa, where I grew up, and they say that Cruz has a VERY strong organization on the ground there, better than Trump, and is closely linked with the local fundie churches that often drive GOP caucus turnout. There is no enthusiasm at all for Bush or Kasich, while Carson is fading with his supporters going to Cruz.
Cruz will win the Iowa caucuses, with Trump a close second, Rubio a distant third.
FDRLincoln
And for what it is worth (very little), my guess is that the nomination goes to Cruz with Rubio as VP pick. Trump runs third party. Hillary wins.
jl
@FDRLincoln:
Seems that GOP command central has decided to unleash the ‘F’ word on Trump:
In a Desperate Bid to Take Down Donald Trump, Republicans Are Unleashing the F-Word
http://news.yahoo.com/desperate-bid-down-donald-trump-205714102.html
People in our current soft-fascist GOP have resorted to calling each other fascist. I guess that is progress of a sort. Ironically, something with some deeper truth emerges from that mountain of BS.
Will Trump think that is fair? Is something so unfair and ugly like that, a coordinated smear campaign against him part of the no third party deal he signed? The world breathlessly awaits His Judgment.
Elie
@Calouste:
My understanding is that the rules for the Republican primaries weight the states differently but who knows.
The uuge problem for the GOP is that they have no candidate that can go toe to toe with Trump. Not. One. We saw Bush try and he was shitty at it. No one else has the confidence. Rubio tweaked him here and there, but really didn’t do much. The problem is that anyone who wants to win the GOP nomination who is not Trump, has to have the cojones and the political and messaging savvy to take him on, directly and without fear/hesitation. No one else in the GOP can win unless that happens. Hillary better get herself ready for how to do this, because she will have to fight like hell for the forces of light if this guy is the GOP nominee. By that time, he will brook no defeat and will do anything — anything to win. She had better want it just as bad and feel the force inside to get it done.
Tyro
My prediction is that Cruz will turn out to have a very good ground game in Iowa that will outdo the more seat-of-their-pants campaigns of Carson and Trump.
Thoughtful Today
erm…
There are very “stark” differences between the primary candidates in both parties.
There’s certainly an attempt to _blur_ those stark differences and there’s certainly many who aren’t paying attention that won’t _recognize_ those stark differences, but they’re their and easily recognizable to anyone who takes the time to look at the various candidates positions and life-histories.
Those ‘blurring’ the differences have a … stark … agenda.
Geoduck
@Germy: I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Jeb ends up with the nomination.
goblue72
@FDRLincoln: Winning the Iowa caucus could easily not matter. Since the GOP establishment lost control of its nominating process in favor of Fox News WWE Xtrava(BEN)GANZHI! – the Iowa caucus has not be predictive.
In 2012, Rick Santorum tied with Romney. Santorum.
In 2008, Mike Huckabee won Iowa. John McCain came in FOURTH.
NH has been more predictive lately, but not entirely.
I would agree that losing BOTH would be a problem for The Onion. His ego might not handle it well.
I could easily see T-RUMP winning NH and Cruz winning Iowa. Then its on to South Carolina, where those two (plus Rubio) duke it out without much clarity. Then on to Nevada where dollars to donuts, Trump winds up winning.
Then its March 1st, and the real primary season actually starts.
dmsilev
@Geoduck: At this point, I’d be shocked if !Jeb manages to pull out a win. He and his team just aren’t very good at the whole campaigning thing.
jl
@Geoduck: That would be nice and not most scary outcome. I guess could happen if Jeb? has enough money and can retain enough country club GOP support to stick out the humiliation for several months. He is this cycle’s Romney who lurks away at a steady base of second tier support while other more loonish and outrageous candidates rocket up, explode and flame out.
But, he would do that with something like 5 to 7 percent support. So how would the numbers work? He’d have to be the product of brokered convention, which would be even better: a candidate no one likes much and a product of a back room deal.
I guess, this election, with the GOP in its current debased condition, anything can happen.
Elie
@Geoduck:
Frankly, at this point, if the GOP base can find enough sanity to somehow support that outcome, I would be surprised. Seems like they are light years from anyone saying anything even remotely reasonable or consensus oriented. Rikyrah earlier on another thread talked about remembering the hutus and tutsis and the elements and power of unfiltered hate once it spills out over weakened societal barriers. Charles Pierce has talked about this… Trump is stoking the engine of this campaign with that and his poll numbers continue to rise, not shrink. The beast is out of the cave and roaming the landscape and its a fearsome thing… Previously, even the Republicans at their worst only alluded to the beast. Trump is glorifying and worshiping it — using its power without shame or hesitation. The longer it takes to have someone confront this effectively, the stronger he and this become each day. Terse, strongly worded editorials in the paper aint gonna stop this train.
EthylEster
@Another Holocene Human: do you mean Carles Coughlin, The Father of Hate Radio?
SiubhanDuinne
@Germy:
I did not know he had died.
jl
What is a sad and scary commentary on the GOP and its reliable voting base is that thei issues that have really driven the most excitement and public discussion are bigoted, racist, xenophobic phantoms that are entirely or 99.9 percent imaginary: Black Lives Matter as the vanguard, or symbol, of the African-American aggression against Whites and law and order, hordes of Hispanic undocumented immigrants taking over the US, Syrian refugees (and how US Muslim community as a whole) being a major terrorist threats to the US, and Deash being an existential threat to the US.
But, if the GOP cultivates bigoted, racist and xenophobic fantasies as its main motivational tool for decades, that is were they will end up sooner or later. Looks like sooner or later is now.
dmsilev
@Thoughtful Today: So, I gather you’re supporting Iron Man for President?
SiubhanDuinne
@Germy:
Jeb or Mitt. I’m still not counting the latter out.
jl
@Elie: ” Terse, strongly worded editorials in the paper aint gonna stop this train. ”
Certainly won’t stop it in the GOP primary, if Trump was competent enough to build a GOTV organization that he said he was funding earlier this year.
I think most voters are sane enough to stop it in the general election, barring something unexpected that will knock people out of their senses around election time. So even the risk of something like that happening is frightening, if Trump or Cruz get the nomination.
goblue72
@Elie: The GOP base aren’t insane. They are angry. Angry white people that are angry that they don’t have exclusive access to the top of the pecking order.
They won’t be happy until one of their own is in the White House.
SiubhanDuinne
@Mike J:
I cannot tell you how much I loved this piece of information when I heard it earlier today.
Jeffro
@dmsilev: I’m with Team Cap (including Black Panther!)
H/t CIVIL WAR trailer which came out yesterday
Elie
@jl:
Its their personal fears being mapped over by this evil (yes evil — something I do not use lightly) man. He is a narcissist who is feeling his power and using it. He is further fueled by seeing that no one can stop him — or has – yet. No one seems to have the drive to stop him and the base are weak, scared people and he is singing to them in a voice of their deep psychological need. You know jl, this has happened many many times in human social psychology. We just thought that here in the US, we had the you know, stable institutions to protect us… forgetting that its the people from which all hope and despair springs. The people is our only real strength, source of power or SAFETY for anything . Right now it looks like everyone in legitimate power is unable or incapable of calling this out and willing to truly lay it out there…
SiubhanDuinne
@FDRLincoln:
¿Isn’t that a little . . . blatant?
Elie
@goblue72:
Each one individually is angry. But their force as a group and the energy they motivate can have outsized impacts. Not to belabor, but all those hatchet murderers in Liberia went back to being regular citizens after the war/s, right. Were they crazy? Are they crazy now? How about the Khmer Rouge? What does it take to cross the line and what prevents the line from being crossed? I don’t think we absolutely know the triggers…
I don’t want to be a scare monger, but the longer this thing goes on with Trump — the more intense his language and exhortations become — as a black person — the hair on the back of my neck is starting to stand up a bit. You don’t survive as a black person here without having a good sense for danger when white people are rumbling…. I am paying close attention.
Archon
@jl:
Short of an unexpected event, yes I think a SLIM majority of voters in a high turnout election will consider the GOP a party gone mad and vote accordingly
Thoughtful Today
! dmsilev:
Bernie is the best candidate based on issues, policies and character. There are stark differences between him and Hillary (militarism, death penalty, trade, labor, health, justice, education, environment, climate, equality, privacy…)
But if you’re asking which Marvel Comics character would be my preferred President, Captain America beats Tony Stark (aka Iron Man), again, based on issues, policies and character.
Obviously.
The Sheriff's A Ni-*bong*
I’ll leave this link to 538’s endorsement tracker first. Very very few in the GOP Inner Party like Ted Cruz. And absolutely nobody there likes Donald Trump. Granted, the endorsements aren’t flying like they are to Hillary Clinton, but its still looking like Bush and Rubio’s game to lose at this point.
“But the polls” you ask, well, there’s this other article from 538 as well: Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls.80% of the voters haven’t made up their mind yet. Or haven’t had a volunteer knock on their door reminding them Rep. McChuckles needs their vote for Jeb Bush on election day. If November polls translated to January, we’d have history books mentioning President Dean and President Giuliani.
Don’t panic.
Amir Khalid
@Elie:
As long as Trump is not yet ruled out of winning the presidency, I think you are right to be fearful. He’s been saying racist things from the outset, but now he can repeat lies already debunked, and still be a hero to his adoring fans. He can’t be shamed, he will not be refuted, he’s a rabble-rouser and a master of the playground taunt like nobody else in this game.
Hillary would run rings around the Donald in a policy debate between nominees, if she doesn’t let him fluster her. So might Bernie, but I fear he could be more vulnerable than Hillary on that score. But if Donald lost a debate, it might not hurt his support; I fear his fans would only resent his opponent all the more for making their guy look bad.
Calouste
@The Sheriff’s A Ni-*bong*: Giuliani never lead in Iowa or New Hampshire. Trump does.
And that 80% of the voters say that they don’t make up their mind until a month before the primary doesn’t mean that they actually vote differently on the day from what they were thinking a month before. Silver has build his career on predicting the results from the polls from a long way out, and now the polls suddenly don’t mean anything? The man is in need of clickbait.
Amir Khalid
@Calouste:
Isn’t it a truism in American politics that most people who claim to be independent really aren’t, and that many who claim to be undecided actually have decided, but just don’t want to declare it?
cokane
I thought Trump would have crested awhile ago, but on and on he goes. Paris attack only helps him, really. Says alot about the state of mind of the American Right — nothing good though.
There is some reason to still be skeptical that Trump can maintain. Past front runners at this stage often flamed out into nothing. But two things are oddly different here. Trump isn’t a one-month front runner. He’s been the frontrunner for what, 4-5 months now? Second, he is drawing large crowds. Not Obama 2008 crowds, but way more than I remember happening for Giuliani for example.
So I don’t think he’s going away. Is FSM really such a kind being to award us the gift of Donald fucking Trump taking the stage at the RNC as their nominee?
The Sheriff's A Ni-*bong*
@Calouste: Polls in November have never meant anything, and Silver knows that.
But, hey, if you want to disagree with Nate Silver and live in an irrational fear of a Trumpreich, be my guest. I’ll be over here, more concerned of a potential Clinton vs Rubio matchup.
Amir Khalid
@The Sheriff’s A Ni-*bong*:
A Trump Reich in America is truly something to fear. His progress in the presidential campaign is uncharted political territory, and no one knows how it will end. As long as events have not ruled the Trump Reich out, that fear isn’t quite irrational, and should drive people to work against it coming to pass.
Bobby Thomson
@Calouste: Vox has an interview today that does a good job of summarizing why Silver is oversimplifying things.
And Rubio as the real frontrunner? That’s just funny.
redshirt
@Jeffro:
I’m Team Cap too, but I think Black Panther is on Stark’s side.
rikyrah
@goblue72:
I am trying to see who would knock Trump out.
rikyrah
@Elie:
I am not afraid, but folks need to shout out as loudly as they are, and not allow folks to poo poo them into silence.
Elie
@Amir Khalid:
Thank you for your earlier comment and this….. You and I read (and others), read between the lines of events and our knowledge of or experience with the human soul. We can’t always count on formal institutions to protect us. There are signs when there is slippage and risk. It is important to note these — not over react but not ignore either.
I like not taking stuff for granted. I like keeping my one eye open when I sleep in certain times. I hold to me my community here and elsewhere…
Elie
@rikyrah:
I hear that. I am a little afraid, to tell you the truth. Not specifically of the brownshirt thing directly— but more of those who will not call it out, will not stand up and you don’t know how they leave you vulnerable when they cut their deals for their own safety. Way too many examples of that to take for granted that most of us will do what needs to be done. People (all of us), have brain bleach that allows us to ignore and wash out our failings —our times when we looked the other way when they came for our brother or sister. I always say, be ready first. Be ready second and Be ready third. One eye….
redshirt
@Elie: I’m a bit afraid of the Brown Shirts, to be honest, because they are already among us. The heavily armed “Oathkeepers” who showed up in Ferguson are an example. They’re just waiting to be organized, to be given an official purpose (like the “Minutemen” think theirs is to guard the border). Heaven help us if someone in power does.
Elie
@redshirt:
Our best safety is with each other. I am still hopeful that there are enough of us who will keep up the safety of the whole. That is why, for example, people stop at red lights. There is no one there to make you stop, but the community knows its in everyone’s interest to do so. While there are always those who run lights, most of us respect and observe the conventions.
Trump is evil, but he is old and his health is probably less than A plus. He is under a fair amount of pressure. He absolutely must hope that God is not just in a timely way…