McConnell, Priebus quiet as anti-Trump effort + floor fight debated by power brokers, wary of any comment leaking https://t.co/7Hwop19LqA
— Robert Costa (@costareports) December 10, 2015
Did someone say brokered convention? pic.twitter.com/rzAAVNgbTK
— Bob Schooley (@Rschooley) December 10, 2015
Aaaand the Libertarian viewpoint, from Mr. Megan McArgleBargle…
MT @costareports Breaking: National GOP leaders now preparing for a brokered convention… pic.twitter.com/vAnQvamI6n
— Peter Suderman (@petersuderman) December 10, 2015
…. because whatever happens among the wild things, he expects to come home to his comfy bed and find his supper waiting — still warm! (Between this & Cruz misunderstanding Green Eggs & Ham, maybe we should just keep Repubs away from the childens’ section entirely.)
Apart from that, Mrs. Lincoln, what’s on the agenda for the evening?
Make this beautiful possibility a reality.
I plan to find more ways to work versions of “prodigious” into conversation.
Oh please oh please…
I sure do hope they they are taking great pans to ensure that nice Mr. Trump will be treated ‘fairly’.
And the word always needs to be in quotes for both the RNC poobahs and Trump.
Iowa Old Lady
How would their primary voters react to that? They’re already mad at the people in power. I suspect they’d see this as someone robbing them of the right to choose the candidate, even though the rules allow it.
I’m not going to flap my wings and crow any victory songs. The democratic party is always in disarray. The nice man on the TV told me.
oh man, please let it be so.
Just received the first half of a fairly large order of goods from ImportFood.com.
This guy <—-happy camper
For those unfamiliar, it sells fresh/packaged Thai edibles and spices/sauces etc. Great quality, good shipping, reasonable prices. And since I can't get a lot of what I want nearby very easily, overall a net good for me. Don't work for them, etc, but have been happy thus far with their product/service.
Thai chilis, fresh Thai basil and hot basil, fresh lemongrass. Waiting on the second half for some pre-made sauces and other condiments.
Brokered convention means Trump will be going third party if he loses. The GOP power brokers are not so deluded that they think Trump will go quietly into the night, are they? And even if Trump is too late to register as an independent or can’t hijack a minor party that has ballot access, there will be a massive amount of write-ins by his fans.
Great. Now someone is going to propose that the Dems have a brokered convention so we can compete for ratings.
I have been offline all day, and apologize if it’s been discussed earlier in the day, but the WaPo article about the Trump supporters in a focus group with Luntz is pretty hilarious:
You mean like large frying pans upside the head? Or have they retreated to paella pans?
They can write?
Haven’t seen mistermix too much lately.
As I said before: Trump will run as an Independent if they even look like they are going to pull this bullshit.
Let’s face it. Trump is an opportunist megalomaniac, but he is not stupid when it comes to the native intelligence needed to fool a bunch of egotistical bullies.
They are not going to surprise him with this. They are only going to send him out on his own where he is happy to be.
And then they are fucked.
An armed GOP convention is a polite GOP convention. I’m assuming the GOP will allow firearms in their convention, of course.
I honestly would not be shocked if he goes third party well before that. Trump is bigger than the party fixers at this point. If/when they don’t bow their knee in supplication and kiss his yooge classy ring, he may tell them to go stuff.
Why not a border moat? Filled with alligators? Or Trump supporters?
@srv: Millennials are a deeply disillusioned and somewhat numb group at this point. I wouldn’t trust 50%+ to actually do any specific thing in any event.
@Germy: Murkowski managed to win a write in campaign, and that’s a lot harder to spell than Trump. Although she was running against a tea-partier.
An amusing bit from the article is that these supposedly politically wise power brokers wanted to look to 1976 as an example of how to handle a brokered convention. Which is clueless, since 1976 was a very close 2-person race and not at all like the free-for-all they’re likely to get this year if there’s no clear winner of the delegate race.
@Corner Stone: I agree (with you and with BGinCHI above). Trump will go indie if it looks like the GOP PTB are going to screw him over, and won’t wait until it actually happens. He’ll run the early to mid primaries though, that’s all free publicity.
It would be too late to get on the ballot if the Republican poobahs waited to broker Trump out of the R nomination until the convention, right?
Maybe they can offer him Ambassador to Taylor Swift?
Alain the site fixer
The look, missing comment numbers, etc. are known. I am awaiting support because the new theme isn’t performing as it should. Once it does, I will get things looking (and acting) like they were.
Sorry for this inconvenience, but once the settings issue is resolved,I will apply the last site edits. I fear that resolving the theme issue may require a new version of the theme which will require me to redo my comparisons between what the old files were and what the new ones are. I don’t want to waste my time making edits that I have to throw out and do again, if at all possible!.
G’night to all, I’m making some food and enjoying my kitties and my sweetie, and will be back on tomorrow morning to see what support says (I believe they’re in Europe/Middle East/Eastern Med, so they will hopefully get on things in the wee hours of our East coast morning).
A month ago was thinking they’d settle for Rubio after a Trump flameout but it’s far more distressing to see Cruz circling the Republican Party corpse like a vulture, looking for a soft, gooey landing spot. The more I hear him the worse he comes across, as if that were possible. Now I fear he’s been holding back.
Is the NFL game tonight supposed to be any good? And why do I always ask this question, when no one responds before I get off my ass and go Google it myself? Okay, seriously, this time I’m not going to look. Help me out, people. I had a tough day.
Mike in NC
@srv: Some of these chickenhawk millennials should maybe report to their nearest military recruiting office if they’re so hot for American boots on the ground in the Middle East.
Thanks for the pointer. Will check ’em out.
@Alain the site fixer: Thanks. Enjoy your evening.
I thought that’s how you were planning to get in all along.
@Steeplejack: It depends. Are you a Minn or AZ fan?
@Alain the site fixer:
Thanks for all your efforts.
Depends on the state, I think. I couldn’t find a convenient list, but the first State that came up on teh Google was Tennessee, where the August filing data is a month after the July convention, so he could get on that ballot.
Buried in New York?
Jesus Christ. At least now I know who is playing. Where? What’s the line? I am a fan of no particular team, just would prefer to see a competitive game.
@srv: So a majority of millennial OPPOSE building a border wall.
And a greater percentage of Millenials oppose a border was than the voter population of all ages as whole.
“Between this & Cruz misunderstanding Green Eggs & Ham, maybe we should just keep Repubs away from the childens’ section entirely.”
Oh god, yes!
When George Bush read a children’s book about goats, 3,000 Americans died.
@Steeplejack: Now you are on your own because I’m not going to watch. My suggestion is turn it on for ten minutes and then turn it off.
So the police in Essex (in the UK) have been running this awesome program “Only Cowards Carry”.
Here’s their Facebook page.
Of course, American gun-totin’ wingnuts are outraged, and have been coloring on the wall with poop.
@Corner Stone: Contrary to the mass media image of Millenials as uniformly white, upper middle class tattooed hipster working in tech in some big city, Millenials are a lot more diverse – not only racially, but socioeconomically.
The unemployment rate for Millenials has trends a couple of percentage points higher than the workforce as a whole. The UE was in the mid-5% range in early summer, it was in the mid-7% range for Millenials.
So, its not surprising if younger voters are feeling more disillusioned, financially stressed and worried.
On the other hand, they are less racist than their parents, so Trump’s appeal to that age group is pretty limited. Amongst Millenial Democrats, Bernie Sanders polls better than Clinton.
The kids are gonna be all right.
@Steeplejack: I, for one, am looking forward to it. I like AZ and think they play good team ball. Who knows how deep they would have run in last years playoffs with a healthy Palmer.
The line is like AZ, at home, laying 10.5.
I don’t think the Vikes are that bad an opponent so bookies must be thinking the Cards D is going to completely shut down Adrian Petes.
@BGinCHI: No, Dems are f’ed if chump runs on a third party ticket; a chump third party will most likely help the thugs hold power in the house/senate! Really, do you think a chump could beat Hillary running as a thug? No way, and turn out by Dems would kill the thug party if chump is running as a thug. Also, some moderate thugs will not show up knowing this.
On the other hand, with chump as a third party all those excited chump supporters will see a dem and thug candidate for congress and vote thug. Many thug moderates will show up to help those same congress critters. So what if chump draws off votes for Cruz/Bush/who-ever; they would have lost anyway but then, the dems, instead of maybe winning back the senate, lose it.
@Mary G: confirmation bias, how the @@@@ does it work?
Gin & Tonic
@Fair Economist: By my count, there are 14 states which have an filing deadline for independent candidates that is before or within 3-4 days of the conclusion of, the Republican convention. This includes some swing or large EV states like Texas, Illinois, Michigan, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia. Waiting until the conclusion of the convention would leave Il Donaldo in an untenable position for an independent candidacy.
Serious question: Anyone know what the margin will be for Trump if he runs as an independent?
And by ‘margin’ I mean $ not votes.
That will be big factor. I assume, done right and under our current campaign finance laws, a guy could do pretty good running in the general election, even if the campaign is a total loser.
I was planning on backroom deals, not a nasty floor fight in front of the whole country.
My supporters can get a little … boisterous.
Don’t know the line but if Minn plays remotely like they did Sunday it should be Ariz by roughly 35-6.
So David Brooks has a new book out, apparently, and in it he admits that he:
@srv: LOL; Harvard pukes do want the low class mid-west corn fed loser’s to go to the Middle East and fight a war to protect their own too precious to be shot hides. Big fucking deal.
@Gin & Tonic: If running an independent campaign nets out OK for Trump, I think he will be very efficient and quick at sniffing out unfair treatment that either has happened or is in the works. He certainly has been pro-active about that so far.
@Cermet: There is simply no way a Trump third party run hurts the D’s. He is Perot on PEDs. If/when that happens, they should name his party the Titanic as it will sink any R candidate.
I don’t know who I’ll miss more, POTUS or FLOTUS.
Here’s Michelle Obama Spitting Some Bars On Continued Education
@Cermet: That assumes that the Trump ticket will only have the President and VP line, and there won’t be anyone running lower down the ticket. I think that Trump will want to take revenge on the GOP if they scorn him and that he will find some dupes to run lower down the ticket and take out some GOP senators, governors, reps etc. There have been enough tea party candidates in recent years that have been able to knock out more mainstream GOPers, why wouldn’t they throw their hat in the ring with Trump? And don’t say he isn’t able do that. Trump’s business has more than 20,000 employees, the man must have some organizational skills.
@Corner Stone: I think it’s impossible to say at this point. If GOPers who vote for Trump as an independent are pissed at GOP for being mean and unfair to him, and if GOPer Congressional candidates have to distance themselves from Trump to get RNC money, Trump could damage GOP in Congress as a third party candidate.
But I think you are right that will probably help Dems more than hurt.
And… I mean a cast-iron frying pan.
Cermet is talking about a Trump 3rd party run hurting Democratic Senate/House races, not the presidency. Under the theory that Trump will increase voter turnout for conservatives and those guys will vote Republican.
I am skeptical. I don’t think Trump will increase voter turnout – except maybe for the Dems. The place I saw this first was over at Washington Monthly, and the whole idea has a bit of the “please Republicans – don’t throw us into the briar patch by forcing Trump to run as an independent” whiff about it.
@Steeplejack: It might be good, both teams are above average, with Arizona being the better team IMO. Since they’re playing in Arizona, it might be a blowout, but who knows, Minnesota might make a game of it.
@NonyNony: I can see how a dust-up that leads to their hero leaving the GOP ticket would depress morale among the reactionaries and teabaggers more than among the Dems.
Interesting times. America hasn’t had a brokered convention from either political party since 1952, when Democrats took 3 ballots to nominate Adlai Stevenson.
So I’m going out on a limb and predicting that we won’t have a brokered convention this year. After Tuesday, when Carson and Trump fade away, Jeb will most like swift-boat and ratfvck his remaining opponents into oblivion and wind up as the nominee by default. The Republican base doesn’t like Jeb, but if he’s the only candidate left standing they’ll have no choice but to support him.
Incidentally, we had a similar situation in 2012 with Mitt Romney. The Republican base despised Romney, but since he was the only guy left standing by the time the convention rolled around, they had to support him or resign themselves to a Democratic president.
Has it occurred to anyone that the Democratic and Republican parties seem to have switched places over the last 50 years?
Once upon a time, the Democratic party was the party of war and social control. Now the Republican party is the party of war and social control.
Once upon a time, Republicans were the disciplined party that prided themselves on being based in reality. Now, the Republicans are a disorganized group of competing interests mired in a fantasyland of idealism — just like the Democrats used to be, while the Democratic party is now the disciplined reality-based party.
@Baud: go with the floor flight. You can count on Nolan “Knuckles” Peale to have your back
@NonyNony: I understood the argument, just disagree with it in its entirety. Any D Senate or House race is only helped by a top line Trump third party line on the ballot.
Trump doesn’t fire up the ballot vote splitter, he fires up the voters who are angry with the establishment and R PTB.
Heh indeed-y…if you click over to their Facebook wall and scroll down a bit, they are trying to bring awareness to knife crimes. Guns technically do not enter into the picture.
@Gin & Tonic: The last primaries are June 7, about 6 weeks before the convention. It will be clear then what the situation is (and it might be a lot earlier), and that should be enough time for Trump to file third party. And the clue of course will be whether Trump will get the endorsements of candidates that have bowed out and other high-ranking Republicans, or not.
GOP is freaking because they put in the 20% rule thinking it would have JEB! waltzing to the nomination. Now all the Establishment/Corporate Wing candidates are sucking air and a media savvy blowhard is romping to the nomination.
are networks obligated to put Steve King on TV?
You get the nickname because you have a soul food restaurant selling pig knuckles, or because your workout shorts are too small?
@Peale: You got it, Knuckles. We’re going to make the 1968 convention look like 2008 convention.
@NonyNony: Hope you are right! In this, I want to be wrong, wrong, wrong!
I’m still waiting for Trump to win a single primary vote.
@Cermet: As little control as we have on our own side, we have none on what the other side does. Que sera sera.
To paraphrase the Pete Seeger song:
“Waist deep in the Big Crazy
And the big fool says to push on.
Waist deep in the Big Crazy
And the big fool says to push on.
Waist deep! Neck deep! Soon even a
Tall man’ll be over his head, we’re
Waist deep in the Big Crazy!
And the big fool says to push on!”
@Steeplejack: I think it might be pretty good; I’m recording it.
It’s a big deal to Seahawks fans, maybe to fans of other teams. I’m in a fantasy football league and while I don’t have a player from either team, my opponent this week has a couple of players, so I’ll take a look.
Republicans love their Congress people. And the GOP is not giving up their majorities. Trump wouldn’t damage the GOP. He might encourage more Tea Party and extremists to run and consolidate the wingnut grip on the Republican Party.
I’m so pleased there are circumstances where there is a use for an arrogant blowhard in love with their own ego.
@WereBear: Other than on Balloon Juice.
@Calouste: According to Ballotpedia, all of the states except Texas and South Dakota have filing deadlines for independents between June 30 and the first week in September.
SD is insignificant, but Texas is a big one. It has a deadline in early May, and a sore loser law that applies to presidential candidates.
I suspect the bigwigs in the Republican Party leaked this on purpose. If Trump goes indie it’s probably better to force his hand now and have 10 months to mitigate the damage, then to have Trump go independent in March or April after people have already casts votes for him.
@Brachiator: That’s a good point. Trump is supposedly dumping lot of money into a ground game in the primary states, and has attracted organizational talent from other GOPers.
But he has never run a campaign before. If Trump doesn’t do well on building a good GOTV organization, he will not convert all of his polling numbers into wins. And as soon as the primaries and caucuses begin, the delegate count will dominate the news just as the polls do now.
So, Trump as a legitimate threat is a big unknown right now, except for big poll numbers. That is something we all should keep in mind.
Ah, the brokered convention! The quadrennial wet dream of the political junkie class. I’ll go on record right here and now that there will be no brokered convention for either the Democrats or the Republicans in 2016. I’m even willing to put up a $10 donation to Balloon Juice on the proposition. Any takers?
The millennials are probably all the more disillusioned because you have stripped them of one of their n’s.
Thanks for the cold, hard facts.
I need something to take my mind off the SQL sawdust-sawing in the previous thread.
@gratuitous: I take your bet. Seriously.
I think I’ll lose but what the hell. Steve may need the extra kitty food.
Edit: seek me out right after the GOP convention. Give or take a few days so I can come our from under cover, or to walk out of the deep woods, look around, and check that everything is still safe.
I’m sure he means that tongue in cheek.
Okay, this is my final attempt to get you to see this: Taraji P. Henson and James Corden read for the part of Cookie on Empire.
Glad they’re getting ready to fight, because they’ll be the ones doing it.
He knows he’s pathetically shallow but continues writing the same old? Won’t or can’t stop? Maybe there is a support group for that.
Snarki, child of Loki
Needs to be an “open carry” convention.
Thin the herd.
@Mike in NC: It would only take less than 10% (or less) to sign up
to make a huge impact. And there might well be 10% who are that crazy.
Good news everybody!
Ramadi soon to fall to Iraqi Forces SHOULD be on cable all the time. Funny that it is not.
us might offer helicopter gunships.
@Redshift: i can imagine LOTS of fringe left wing parties willing to give their ballot slot to Trump.
Suppose Trump gets on the ballot that way, but has to use different parties in different states.
Would that be allowed? Does the sore loser law apply if you run under a different party that already has ballot access?
@Steeplejack: I saw it last night actually.
Loved it of course…Taraji P Henson is just awesome. Even if Empire is not at it’s best this season, Taraji as Cookie IS The Empire
Cuba claims will be complicated:
She is great. I love how she completely unloaded on Corden. Good writing, whoever did it.
Pah. Tough talk from poseurs who know that Obama is not sending us into that briar patch, no way, no how.
But if your boy Trump or one of these other assholes win, and start ramping up for a war? Watch that number plummet.
@Steeplejack: yes…she really IS the whole show, she even ups Terrance Howard’s game and I can’t stand T Howard.
I watched it more than once and LMAO each time.
When she told him “everyone can’t walk these streets, that’s why they made sidewalks…Stay in yo lane…” LOL. That’s actually a line from the show and she gave it even better than she did on the show…lol
@srv: you also know what CCC style project would put folks back to work, and be useful?
Perhaps rebuilding broken bridges, pothole riddled streets, and any number of other things that improve the actual places US citizens live and work.
Do you know how many park bathrooms around San Francisco were built in some New Deal work program? Lots. And every time I found a bathroom in a park when I had two kids in tow, I thanked FDR for his foresight.
You’d have to look at the laws, but I’d think not. Otherwise you couldn’t try for multiple party nominations. It would seem odd if some Tea Partier running for both American Independent and Republican got kicked off the AI ballot for losing the Republican primary.
Breaking news: Oklahoma cop found guilty on most counts for raping black women he figured would never report what he did to them. http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/ex-oklahoma-city-cop-daniel-holtzclaw-found-guilty-rapes-n478151
He wasn’t found guilty on all counts. it’s likely the jury quibbled on some of the charges that had little forensic or documented evidence. The guy is still facing 283 years in prison.
The Twitter is afire with tweets about this. It’s just breaking, so there’s a question if the national media picks up on it.
If Trump were to run a 3rd party campaign as an independent, I have no doubt that the Villagers would rise as one in indignation that Bernie wasn’t doing the same, in the name of “balance.”
@jl: Booked it. I’ll post to you at Balloon Juice on July 17 or later.
@forked tongue: Sure, but what the media isn’t talking about is that Bernie’s got a very good chance of winning the Dem primary. I’m going out today to work for him, and I suggest anybody else who supports Bernie go and do likewise.
It’s Balloon Juice that shamed me into going and physically working in an Obama field office, and I discovered I liked it. I did it twice and we won, after Obama was already the nominee. This time the real election’s the primary due to Trump and Republican meltdown. If the MSM aren’t talking about the Dem primary it’s because Bernie won’t need to run as an independent. We have the people, and people vote (pundits vote too, but they’re outnumbered when they’re MSM hacks pushing an agenda)