Jeb Lund, in the Guardian:
… Trump cannily recognizes that his extremism bedevils establishment Republicans. Publicly saying things a chunk of the conservative base yells at reruns of Cops is bad form. It mars the high-class brand…
More pointedly, Trump shrewdly shifted the discussion from his polls to his policy. On Monday, Monmouth University published a poll showing Trump falling behind Texas senator Ted Cruz in Iowa. What would be a temporary setback for most candidates challenges Trump’s core appeal: that he is the strongest, most luxurious candidate in the field. You can’t trail when you sell invincibility, especially when the equally shrewd Ted Cruz makes no secret of drafting behind you in hopes of picking up your followers and refuses to give you any material by attacking you.
So the horserace journalism goes: Trump again leapt to the right, leaving establishment Republicans well to his left and daring real conservatives Cruz and Marco Rubio to either compromise their identities and follow suit or risk staying put and looking like centrists. If political cleverness is the widest setting on your moral aperture, this is great.
The shrewd left doesn’t do much better. The argument you will hear is that shutting our borders to all Muslims only aids Isis by feeding into their narrative of an America at war with Islam itself and, by extension, all Muslims. They aren’t wrong. That’s a persuasive argument, but if that’s America’s default appeal, we all need to put on a chain mail suit, run through the rain and try to make babies with an electrical transformer. We’ve outlived our decency.
Sometimes it’s enough for an idea to merely be stupid, wretched, inhumane and, if we need a fourth for bridge, unconstitutional. Sometimes a refusal to be morally impoverished is reason enough. Sometimes, to paraphrase Groucho Marx, we can point to a meringued trash golem effervescing with sewage ideas like Donald Trump and say: “Whatever it is, I’m against it.”…
The best reason not to freak out about Trump is that he has no power, hasn't won a single vote as yet, and won't actually be president.
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) December 10, 2015
The best reason to freak out is 2/3 of GOP voters say they support his anti-Muslim hysteria. https://t.co/RmHFJGtBjH
— Bob Schooley (@Rschooley) December 10, 2015
redshirt
I’d seriously say even today having heard I’ll I’ve heard I’d rather have Trump as the nominee and possible President than any one of those other Republican monsters. They’re all part of the horrible machine that has taken over America and seeks all our destruction. Ted Cruz is a 100 times worse than Trump. Rubio is a patsy. Huckabee is a madman preacher.
At least Trump is also against that machine, at least in terms of marketing.
ThresherK (GPad)
The Guardian notwithstanding, is there any sign that the people who practice horse-race journalism are going to do a better job of it this time around? And what of the mainstreamers who give the horserace set their power by paying attention?
Mnemosyne (tablet)
I wish I was looking forward to tomorrow’s office party more, but I’m tired and cranky and it’s going to be a very busy day with lots of people wanting me to give them direction. Feh.
oldgold
Lund has it wrong. Establishment Republicans are not offended by the substance of Trump’s positions. Rather, they are troubled that he expresses them so baldly, as oposed to the winks and dog whistles they have long used, and thus has exposed their party for what it has devolved into.
Mnemosyne (tablet)
Also, I probably won’t get an answer to this until tomorrow, but if a person was old and unhip but had watched “The Wiz Live” and thought, That young man Ne-Yo seems to be a talented singer and I would like to hear more of his work, what album of his would one recommend starting with?
Amir Khalid
@oldgold:
That may indeed trouble them, but I think they are most concerned that he doesn’t owe them anything and is thus not beholden to them. A Republican president not under their control is something they Do Not Want.
Ruckus
@oldgold:
….thus has exposed their party for what it has devolved into.
Just a minor correction, it hasn’t devolved into anything. You are right about the rest, it’s been this way for over 90 yrs, abet a bit quieter about it.
Ruckus
@Amir Khalid:
This
The PTB in the republican party have always been used to buying anything they want. Including control. It upsets them greatly that their money is basically powerless. It upsets us that one of them finally decided to run himself and tell the others to fuck off.
? Martin
@oldgold: I don’t think that’s quite right. I still believe there is an existential fight taking place between the establishment GOP and the Tea Party. Even if he doesn’t win, Trump emboldens the Tea Partiers by showing that you can go for radical positions and not be damaged. The establishment is more interested in positions that can be won rather than those that can be survived.
So far the GOP establishment has taken a strategy of just letting the Tea Party blow the place up, and then stand back and show that it gets nothing done. Obamacare is no weaker. Immigration policies haven’t changed. Federal abortion rules no different. Imagine what would happen if you had Trump in the WH. What would the GOP get? They’d get these radical ideas that would only enable the Tea Party wing, and if they got passed, the GOP establishment will be killed off.
Don’t get caught up in what the establishment wants in terms of policy. Their first priority has been and always will be survival – getting re-elected, keeping committee and leadership assignments. President Romney or Bush maintain that status quo. President Clinton does as well. President Trump does not.
oldgold
@Ruckus:
The Republican Party before ‘successfully’ adopting a Southern Strategy was considerably different. From that point forward, it has devolved into the mess that now threatens the political integrity of our republic.
Redshift
But that isn’t the only argument you hear from “the left.” The primary argument I’ve heard is, in fact, that Trump’s bigotry goes against everything this country stands for. The fact that it’s also playing into the hands of Daesh is mentioned secondarily, but i haven’t heard anyone make it their only, or even primary, argument.
Mnemosyne (tablet)
@efgoldman:
Well, we *are* having a pretty good spread from Buca Di Beppo delivered tomorrow. How much I’ll be able to enjoy of it after getting the tables set up and decorated, track down the missing garbage cans, get the food organized, get the booze organized (it’s entertainment, we get to drink at the office), get people moved from the lunch table to the Yankee Swap area …
Parties are more fun when you don’t have to run the damn things and keep 22 cats all moving in the same direction.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@efgoldman: Saw an interesting (to me) factoid the other day that Pat Leahy is the only Democrat ever elected to the Senate from Vermont.
NotMax
Schooley’s tweet relies on a single snap poll. In fact, IIRC, the two-thirds number came from an instant online poll, and he should by now recognize that online polls are barely, if at all, credible and should never be cited as any kind of definitive single source.
Polls since then, using firmer methodology, show the percentage of Republicans supporting Trump’s anti-Muslim bigotry to be less than half (but not by a great amount), not two-thirds. Still too high a support percentage for any comfort, but getting much closer to the neighborhood of half the percentage Schooley cites.
What is equally disturbing is that almost a quarter of the Republicans in those later polls have no opinion.
Mnemosyne (tablet)
@efgoldman:
Our Yankee Swap is done with gifts provided by the department, so no one can get pissy at any particular person if they don’t like what they got. My friend’s sister’s company seems to play the game with very large bottles of vodka, so I guess at least everyone goes home with vodka?
The eternal problem with all Yankee Swap/Secret Santa type games is freeloaders. You always have at least one person who doesn’t want to play but put their name in the hat anyway and then they do it half-assed. I hate that person.
NotMax
@Mnemosyne
Must admit to having never encountered the term Yankee Swap before; had to look it up.
Eric U.
my wife’s office does the secret santa thing and then they all trade stuff. She usually does pretty well. I hate to shop, and I don’t want any more stuff in the house, so I would never participate
David Koch
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Vermont was really Republican. It’s voted against FDR 4 times. In 1936, FDR won 46 of 48 states, winning a whopping 61% of the vote, yet he lost Vermont by 13 points.
what turned it around was the white flight in the 60s and 70s. New Yorkers like Sanders, Howard Dean, Ben & Jerry, as well as metropolitan companies relocating back offices to vermont turned it blue.
The Republic of Stupity
Well shucks… more than the political integrity is at threat… the actual existence of the place is looking kind a shaky…
Mnemosyne (tablet)
@NotMax:
We had fun with it a couple of years ago, and we’ve accumulated enough swag to make it worthwhile.
Tenar Darell
So, the NYT finally ran an editorial saying that the Republican Party has been married to race-baiting and religious bigotry for a long time. (I say married because they started courting in the 1960’s. I think I’d date the marriage to Reagan in the 1970’s, once those pikers, Goldwater & Nixon failed in such very different ways, but I’m open to being persuaded otherwise).
Anyway, I wonder if the NYT Public Editor is going to point out how our failed media experiment, by both siding each step along the way to now. Maybe I should check the comments on the editorial to see if this is being suggested or should I relax & have some herbal tea?
David Koch
Notice how Ross Douthat has moved from Trump “wont get the nomination” to Trump “won’t actually be president.”
Even they are finally admitting Trump will win the nomination.
David Koch
National Poll — CBS/NY Times — Dec 4 thur 8
Trump………………..35
Cruz…………………..16
Carson……………….13
Rubio…………………..9
¿Jeb ?………………….3◄
$33 million dollars in commercials and ¿Jeb ? is in the toilet. All the water carrying by the establishment media and little marco is still in single digits.
Amir Khalid
@David Koch:
Given that Douthat’s record on predictions is just like that of William Kristol, his predecessor in that NYT columnist spot, I fear that Douthat will be wrong as usual.
David Koch
@Amir Khalid: Fear not – Kristol just predicted Trump will lose Iowa, which means he’ll win in a landslide
Cermet
@David Koch: Even a broken clock is correct twice a day; so don’t worry, these ass wipes – Kristol & Douthat – getting something right – out of hundreds of wrong statements mis-speaking and getting something right was bound to happen. Chump will lose.
Matt McIrvin
@efgoldman: I always thought antipathy and conflict was the point of those things. People think it’s fun to watch other people get screwed.
gratuitous
I don’t mean to be churlish to whoever Jeb Lund of the Guardian is, but does he have any familiarity whatsoever with the political scene in the United States over the last 35 years? Yes, a Republican proposal can be “stupid, wretched, inhumane and … unconstitutional,” but if Lund thinks its sufficient to point that out to kill the proposal, he’s hopelessly naive.
So, yes, the “shrewd Left” (whatever Lund means by that) is compelled to point out some of the real world, actual results that ensue from a public airing of Trump’s “ban all the Muslims” scheme. Because a significant portion of the American public won’t grasp the point on their own, and they have to be led, like the reluctant horse of the old adage, right up to the water trough. Lund admits the persuasiveness of the shrewd Left’s argument, but apparently feels it’s beneath the American people to have to put it forward. It’s not.
Paul in KY
@Mnemosyne (tablet): Wish I got to drink while I was programming. Might have some more novel solutions to the problems I’m working on.
Paul in KY
@efgoldman: Bernie is technically a Democrat now, but was not when last re-elected to Senate.
Paul in KY
@Tenar Darell: I’d go back to 68 & Nixon’s win. That was when the Southern Strategy was unleashed.
Chris
@Tenar Darell:
Would it be fair to say they’ve been “courting” since the late 1870s (Tilden-Hayes compromise, which basically amounted to “conservative Republicans will leave Southern Democrats alone to rebuild the pre-war order in their part of the country and rule it as they see fit, in exchange for which the Southern Democrats will leave them the White House and by extension the rest of the country”), but that it’s not until the 1960s/70s that it really became a “marriage” (rather than simply a convenient understanding between two separate political factions, Southern conservative whites became an integral part of the Republican coalition and electoral strategy)?
Paul in KY
@Chris: Good point, Chris.
chopper
i’m not freaking out over trump. i’m freaking out over his policies. the conservative base has spoken and that’s what they really want.
Chris
@Paul in KY:
One of the more interesting things I find when reading U.S. history is just how far back the link between Southern Democrats and conservative Republicans goes. People usually credit it to the sixties and civil rights. It’s a lot older than that. The Conservative Coalition (against the New Deal) was in 1937. The Tilden-Hayes Compromise was in 1877. Between the two, in the Gilded Age, local elites in the South and out-of-state, usually Northern-based business interests often seem to get along splendidly when it comes to enforcing an unequal, hierarchical, autocratic Southern social order that benefits them both.
Don’t know as much about pre-Civil War history, but I wouldn’t be surprised if those ties were alive and well even then.
...now I try to be amused
@oldgold:
Furthermore, the GOP establishment might have a hard time stuffing the genie back into the bottle. Trump’s supporters love the fact that he threw away the dog whistle. They’re like junkies who shot up the really good shit for the first time. I doubt they’ll ever be satisfied with a mealy-mouthed dog-whistler again.
Chris
@Paul in KY:
Yes. That’s it exactly.
It makes me both less and more worried about the Trump phenomenon, at the same time. Less in the sense that Trump is really not different from the Republican mainstream, so it’s not like he represents some new and unique evil for us to be terrified of. More, because that means the phenomenon will outlast him, whenever his destruction finally comes.
Ruckus
@efgoldman:
Didn’t say all conservatives were this way but they have been about the same things. Yes some were much more sensible. But the conservative response to the depression, the opposition to FDR, Joe McCarthy, and yes his own party turned against him, but not at first. I for sure will admit that they are crazier today and much more publicly open about their racism but decades ago there were still lynchings, and people still gathered to openly complain about minorities and when I was a kid the word nigger rolled off the lips of most white people pretty easily. My grandmother lived in south central LA, I worked there for 28 yrs, and there I was a minority. And yet the not all the people who lived there treated me with contempt for being white. Can’t say the same about the small white town I lived in. We moved when I was 10 and my mother made the statement that we weren’t going to live on the wrong side of the tracks. The rich conservatives still worried far more about getting richer than about the cities and country they lived in……….. Without the media that we have today it wasn’t as noticeable, unless you looked or were being crapped upon. And even most liberals were somewhat conservative. I believe that the media has not changed the attitudes but the fact that not everyone sees the same world. And that’s with the crappy media that we have. We wonder on this blog why the media seems so conservative. They always have been.
Bobby Thomson
The line is “No! I AM your father!”
Paul in KY
@Chris: I vacillate between who would be worse, Trump or Cruz. I think Cruz, but he’s a ‘regular’ politician & if he was president, he might figure out/decide that a lot of what he talks about in campaign really can’t be done (Democratically).
Trump, he might get in & figure out novel ways of implementing the worst of his agenda.
a different chris
@gratuitous: Exactly what I came here to post. The ‘but it’s the right thing to do!’ argument doesn’t work on people who think shooting up doctor’s offices, or letting the cops kill an ethnic once in a while to blow off steam, is ‘the right thing to do’.
Tenar Darell
@Chris: @Paul in KY: Sorry I missed this. I should have checked back this AM. In case you all are still checking here….
You’re both correct that it can reasonably be argued the interconnections go back a long ways. The fortunes in rum made in N.E. (and foundations of insurance and banking up North) were from sugar cane grown in the Caribbean. (Basically the triangle trade from Africa immortalized in 1776 the musical). Cotton grown in the South enabled the growth of the North’s industrial mills.
Lincoln was right, slavery was American (not simply regional), even when individual States abolished it, the commercial connections were deep and persistent. These connections remained after the Civil War, as with, for example, Northern companies using Southern prison farm labor.
jl
Language in Lund’s column is overwrought and the argument a little hard to follow.
I am not sure who he means by ‘shrewd left’. What prominent Democrat is making the very correct and very important national security argument against the Trump Muslim Exclusion Policy at the expense of the very correct and very important Constitutional argument and moral arguments?
I don’t see Sanders or HRC or Obama doing that? Who does he mean by ‘shrewd left’?
Sloegin
Billmon tweeted this link the other day; equal parts hilarious and cringeworthy — trump soundbites substituted for Darth Vader dialog.