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You are here: Home / Anderson On Health Insurance / Good news everybody

Good news everybody

by David Anderson|  December 22, 20155:39 pm| 15 Comments

This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance, The Failed Obama Administration (Only Took Two Weeks)

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From the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services regarding Healthcare.gov enrollment for policies that go live on 1/1/16:

Through the deadline for January 1, 2016 coverage, almost 6 million people signed up for health coverage through HealthCare.gov, compared to last year when about 3.4 million had signed up by the first enrollment deadline. Of the nearly 6 million total consumers already enrolled for 2016 coverage, 2.4 million are new consumers, compared to 1.8 million new consumers in the same period for OE2

Enrollment growth is happening fast, 33% more new buyers than old buyers.  And 60% more total policies.

More importantly, on first glance the risk pool is getting better:

. By the end of the first deadline this year (December 17), there were about 2.1 million HealthCare.gov consumers under 35 years old, compared to about 1.1 million before the first deadline last year. Those under 35 composed 35% of HealthCare.gov consumers by the end of the first deadline this year, compared to 33% before the deadline last year for January 1 coverage….

those under 35 composed 41% of new HealthCare.gov consumers by the end of the first deadline this year (December 17), compared to 38% before the deadline last year (December 15).

The risk pool is getting younger which means, on average, it is getting cheaper to cover.  More importantly, it is getting younger through growth of younger new buyers instead of attrition from older, previous previous period policy holders.

My one big question is which band are these younger buyers go into?  If they are going into Bronze because they can get very low post-subsidy plans to avoid the mandate penalty, they don’t help the aggregate program health all that much.  If they are going into Silver at near proportional rates, they’ll make the biggest risk pool a whole lot healthier.  We’ll find that out when we see the ASPE report.

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Reader Interactions

15Comments

  1. 1.

    Baud

    December 22, 2015 at 5:41 pm

    But is 33% unemployment really worth it?

    Oh wait …

  2. 2.

    WaterGirl

    December 22, 2015 at 5:49 pm

    @Baud: Good evening, Mr. President.

    (Will I still have to call you that if we are not in a public place or in front of other people?)

  3. 3.

    WaterGirl

    December 22, 2015 at 5:50 pm

    Sorry, Richard, I should have posted on topic first. That really is good news. I will look forward to hearing from you after we know whether the youngsters went with bronze or silver.

  4. 4.

    jl

    December 22, 2015 at 5:53 pm

    Thanks for these informative updates. Please keep us informed when we know where the new enrollees filled their plates at the metal buffet.

    Edit: forgot to say that I’ve been going over the Dem debates on health care, and I have to say, am disappointed that neither Clinton nor Sanders (IMHO) has very much to say about what should be next steps for ACA, either to make it better (Clinton) or to move to single payer (Sanders). I’d like to read your ideas.

    Edit2: and your ideas may have impact, being posted on the Cracker/Mayhew/Silverman cranky mommy arts-n-crafts/healthcare/national security blog and recipe hub, an all service blog neither Dem candidate can ignore.

    Edit3: and I forgot soccer-dad ref forum. Sorry.

  5. 5.

    Baud

    December 22, 2015 at 5:58 pm

    @WaterGirl:

    You raise a good point. As America’s first virtual president, I’ll have to figure out how to have private chats with advisors. Balloon Juice is unsecure, notwithstanding the new HTTPS protocol.

  6. 6.

    Marc

    December 22, 2015 at 5:59 pm

    @jl: Edit4: Pet News and Pics.

  7. 7.

    jl

    December 22, 2015 at 6:00 pm

    And, hey, Cole, if you are bored and decide to read your own blog, what happened to the climate science front poster idea? I mean, as long as the site techocybersonics are being turbocharged, why not add a little more content?

  8. 8.

    jl

    December 22, 2015 at 6:02 pm

    @Baud:

    ” But is 33% unemployment really worth it? ”

    With Baud as our president, YES IT IS! Magical things will happen after rigorous market discipline is imposed and the rot is purged.

    P.S.: I didn’t know you were running for GOP nomination. I guess I misunderstood.

  9. 9.

    Micheal J.

    December 22, 2015 at 6:09 pm

    Bronze vs. Silver probably depends on whether they have a job or not, yes?

  10. 10.

    Richard Mayhew

    December 22, 2015 at 6:23 pm

    @jl: yeah, this place has an interesting span of discussion that would give a marketing professional several migraines

  11. 11.

    RaflW

    December 22, 2015 at 6:53 pm

    So in other words, Ross Doubtthat was full of shit when he wrote his anti-ACA, handwringing about low enrollment column the other day.

    Quelle surprise.

  12. 12.

    azlib

    December 22, 2015 at 7:00 pm

    So much for Douthat’s death spiral column in the NYT on Sunday. Conservatives really do not like people to have health insurance.

  13. 13.

    jl

    December 22, 2015 at 7:02 pm

    @RaflW: Ha ha. If only Douthat read the Mayhew/Cole healthcare/lunatic rant/pet pic blog and gardening hub regularly, he would have saved himself. Ah… the humanity!

  14. 14.

    ChesapeakeBlue

    December 22, 2015 at 7:36 pm

    Be cautious here. These are just statistics for purchasing through healthcare.gov. All states except for Vermont and DC allow for sale of individual insurance plans off-exchange. Some of these folks were insured off-exchange and are now deciding to use the exchange for shopping. That is a good thing, but it doesn’t change the overall price of coverage. Off-exchange and on-exchange plans are basically the same, sold for the same prices, and use the same risk pool. So, you really need to know how many of these folks are new to the insurance market, not just the exchange.

  15. 15.

    Richard Mayhew

    December 22, 2015 at 8:04 pm

    @ChesapeakeBlue: Qgreed with that caveat of on and off-exchange purchases. I know that the off-exchange market in my region is older than typical on exchange and better off (otherwise they would be on-exchange to get a subsidy).

    If there is an increased # of younger adults getting policies on exchange, they probably are not cannibalizing off-exchange. More likely they are moving from either uninsured, group, other governmental programs to individual market policies.

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