Unquestionably this nugget.
[…] By Halloween the only way you still hear about Trump is if he takes his National Front fan base and runs third party.
I guess that in the future everyone gets to be Dick Morris for fifteen minutes. Aside from Dick Morris of course, who has to be Dick Morris all the time. And Bill Kristol.
Do you have any least greatest hits of 2015 that you want to share? I could use some company.
Yeah, well, you certainly weren’t alone in thinking/hoping that Trump would implode. Those aggregates are amazing; between Trump, Cruz, and Carson, something like 2/3s of the GOP primary electorate should be locked up for their own safety.
I’m sticking with Rubio, even though Cruz is ascendant.
I remember being pretty sure it would be Walker.
The wrong was strong in this post of mine last October, which confidently predicted that Trump was toast and that it would be a Hillz vs Rubio showdown. I have since gone out of the GOP primary results prediction business.
ETA: Oh, and before I was wrong about Trump and overly confident in Rubio’s prospects, I was wrong about the inevitability of Jeb. Good thing I took that shingle down!
I was one of the ones following CP Pierce saying not to sleep on Walker. Sleep would have worked just fine.
Cruz’s orc-like line rushes up to follow Sauron’s Trump!
@Kropadope: Same here.
It’s impossible to predict what the stupid and mean will do. I don’t even recognize the world they are describing.
You mean you’re _not_ secretly RtR? I am somehow saddened to learn this.
The problem is that we were all expecting Trump to say something, or multiple somethings that would trigger his downward trajectory. He has. What we underestimated was the Republican base appetite for racism, sexism and anger. Oh sure, there are Republicans who will not vote for him, or at least say that now, but it seems that once a certain segment of the base tears into the red meat, they become insatiable.
Except for the country club Republicans, the National Front and Cruz’s/Carson’s Theocrats are the Republican Party.
@dmsilev: Has Villago put up the pitchfork? Not that I’m around enuff to notice, but the tumbrel futures spiked recently and I had to ask.
I don’t remember making any predictions, but I’m sure I was wrong about something.
Scalzi has a very funny post up about Santa’s Reindeer Wrangler. He reveals the inside scoop about Donnar and Blitzen.
@feebog: I expect the most amazing part of this is that Trump’s support is being under counted in the polls since some people who are going to vote for him are embarrassed to say so over the telephone.
It really isn’t. It’s just that it’s hard sometimes for the rest of us to get ourselves into a sufficiently stupid and mean state of mind to understand them properly.
Iowa Old Lady
I was sure Trump would get bored and move on, and Bush would be the nominee.
Is there still a “stuff not fixed from the redesign” thread? On this iPad, the links to subsequent pages of posts beyond the front page just takes me to a reload of page 1.
I thought Walker would be the nominee. I figured he had the amiable, but mean streak that would run it for Republicans.
Being in the reality-based community, I don’t have to deal with such errors.
@delosgatos: Yes — under the “About Balloon Juice” tab above, you’ll find a “Site Maintenance” thread.
Well, I predicted that the internet would be the CB radio of the 90s.
ETA: and I’m pretty sure if I’d been around in the 1940s that I’d have ridiculed the idea that anyone would want a television set in their home.
@sherparick: I’m always a little suspicious of these “social desirability bias” claims; it’s one of the things that people routinely pull out to insist that their candidate is doing better than the polls. A lot of pundits thought Obama was going to seriously underperform the polling in 2008 because of shy racists (the “Bradley Effect”), and he didn’t. I think bigots are getting bolder about their choices than they used to be.
Those “Morning Consult” people recently released a claim that everyone else is undercounting Trump because they haven’t properly accounted for social desirability bias. I think that is why their poll numbers are usually high outliers for Trump: they’re doing some kind of pro-Trump unskewing thing. I guess we’ll see if it is correct.
@srv: Reality-based community… is that what you people call socialism?
@Guachi: What distinguished Walker from the rest of the GOP field was that he actually wanted to be president – you can tell because he left at the point that staying in would have damaged a potential 2020 run. I think we were all surprised at how that ended up not being an advantage, but a massive detriment to securing the nomination.
Yep, I was definitely in the one-eye-closed, finger-along-the-nose “you heard it here first” Walker camp. I was confidently talking all manner of shite about how Jeb! might do okay in New Hampshire, but come South Carolina he was toast because the base couldn’t stand him, and the Money would have to find another halfway competent governor to replace him. Enter Walker, who would clean up on Super Tuesday.
Might be some Dominionists for Trump who dislike him but think he can get the pot to boil over and speed up creation of the “New Order”.
@feebog: Trump’s performance in head-to-head polls vs. Hillary Clinton actually has gone down in the past few months. But he keeps going up in the Republican primary standings.
I think there’s a hardcore asshole contingent who love every horrible thing he says, but the vaguely dissatisfied people who just like the idea of a wacky outsider shaking things up are starting to have second thoughts. If we’re lucky his ceiling is less than a plurality of the electorate.
Who knew early that Trump would defy the 2012 also-ran model of fringe GOP wannabes? But I remember reading a while ago a Digby post (and others) talking about how Trump represented what the GOP base wanted. Then it started to seem likely he was a favorite, and now I think it highly likely he will be the nominee. Also amazing was just how bad Bush has been, and Rubio only looks good on paper. He also has weak skills. Trump has actually been pretty savvy about his brand and promoting it. The second best campaigner has been Cruz, but I dont see him passing Trump. And I think he is willing to play a long game similar to Reagan in 1976, so will finish second and bank the street cred he has built up. Heck, he is probably happy to see it go to Trump and have him lose, and become the de facto pick in 2020.
Carson fits the 2012 flame-out stereotype that everyone also expected from Trump.
My first boss in the library I was working at in early to mid-80s said computers were just a passing fancy and that any time we spent learning to use them was wasted. Didn’t work out that way, although some days I wish she had been right …
Well, I’ll own up to my genius prediction…I said the GOP would flirt with the cray-cray and settle down with Kasich. I am happy to be wrong, because Kasich was the one who scared me. He would probably take Ohio, and could convincingly pull off the “moderate” thing, when he’s as batshit as the rest of them.
Me? I was big on Harold Stassen making a real Cinderella story, out of nowhere run.
On the plus side, he’s still not that far behind Jeb?!?, so there’s hope. Be kinda cool if he out-polls Jeb?!?
It’s very hard for me to choose one from the many available bad predictions I’ve made this year.
However, in many cases I’m happy I was wrong, Trump being one exception.
WATTS (CBSLA.com) — Community activist Sweet Alice Harris is known for her generous heart for children from low-income families in Los Angeles.
In her annual Christmas toy drive last week, she gave away more than 400 bicycles.
On Tuesday, she expanded her Christmas cheer to seniors at AltaMed, a non-profit health center in Watts, in the first toy drive of its kind – the Sweet Alice Senior Citizen Santa Toy Giveaway.
About 200 seniors enjoyed a holiday meal and received toys so they can give them away to their grandchildren or other young loved ones in their lives.
“Let the grandmothers do something. And this was AltaMed’s idea,” said Sweet Alice.
“Sweet Alice will never turn down an opportunity to help more people in her community,” said Michelle Burton of AltaMed.
@Matt McIrvin: His novelty wears off with even most Trump-curious people, but the crowd who passionately loves reckless belligerence could constitute enough GOP core voters to solidly cement him in the GOP lead. It increasingly looks like a worst-case chickens coming home to roost scenario for those assholes.
Then again I should probably learn something about making predictions about Trump.
@Dmbeaster: Could you find that Digby post? I am not at all surprised that she got it right earlier than most.
Just One More Canuck
@elmo: you were certainly right about the base hating Jeb – along with everyone else
You heard it here – chump will not be the thug nominee and I will throw that pesky rabbit into that brier patch, rather than eat him, just to teach him a lesson … . So, Walker for …wait …oh; wrong on that front too … .
There has been no actual voting yet. That’s the thing I keep telling myself to make me feel good as an American.
I wonder who the Republican establishment thinks is more electable, Cruz or Trump? I don’t see how either wins a general but short of some black swan event that implodes the Presidents poll numbers I don’t see how this country goes from Obama to an uncharismatic, unapologetic right-winger like Ted Cruz.
Victory lap time for me, then. I’ve been consistent that too much bigotry will never implode Trump. Also very long-winded about it. Brevity is hard when you’re a writer.
My greatest victory is being the first proponent of the ‘anybody but Jeb:(‘ theory here on BJ.
I called it for Jeb all along, but hedged a little bit and said if not Jeb then certainly Walker!
I’ve found the same thing. What I do when I get behind is to use http://www.balloon-juice.com/yyyy/mm/dd to look at previous (and current) day’s posts. The paging in this case seems to work. So for example, I’m currently looking at https://balloon-juice.com/2015/12/23/
@Dmbeaster: 2012 was different in that, while the clown show kept tossing up one front-runner after another, Mitt Romney was always there in a strong second place. None of the establishment guys have been managing that this time; it’s always been Trump.
The other model people sometimes cite is 2008: while he was an establishment/pundit favorite, John McCain was down in the single digits until the beginning of the year, then he suddenly emerged as the last man standing when everyone else flamed out. John Kerry did basically the same thing on the Democratic side in 2004. But in both of those cases, nobody was as dominant as Trump has been through most of 2015.
Yglesias has made this point as well. The VSP consensus (cutting SS and medicare, War) is really not very popular,
and someone could take advantage of that.
I completely missed Cruz’s evangelical base. Other people missed it too… but that’s no excuse– when you’re wrong, you’re wrong.
The Other Chuck
Stupidity is this country’s most abundant renewable resource.
@srv: In the reality based world, every person is wrong from time to time. We can’t help it.
So in order to stay reality based, we reflect on when we were wrong, try to understand why, and attempt to fix those errors.
As a computer programmer, I have my face shoved in my mistakes quite often. If the site goes down, I better figure out why and make the patch ASAP. And any programmer who claims to never have that sort of thing happen is a damned liar.
The key point is that all the 2012 front-runners-of-the week had completely orthodox GOP ideas. Cut taxes on rich people (9-9-9), Oppose Obama. Trump has a lot of unorthodox, for Republicans, ideas.
I think Clinton should bring up that Trump dropped out in 2012. Was he afraid of running against a black man?
Scared of being a loser?
They were all dog whistles. The base doesn’t need to go for ‘I get a warm feeling from this policy that hurts minorities more than it hurts me’ when they have a presidential candidate loudly declaring Mexicans to be rapists and murderers, suggesting Muslims should be put in camps, and throwing around misogynistic insults.
Well Tom, at least you realize and admit you are wrong. Nate Silver is still living in an alternate reality where Trump having roughly the same percentage in the polls as the next three candidates combined about 6 weeks out from the first caucus somehow means that he has less of a chance to win than the others.
@catclub: Trump never ran in 2012. He kind of toyed with the idea, but nothing was ever formal.
Hillary will get inaugurated wearing a T-shirt that says “Donald Trump 2016: Schlonged by My Clit”
Both answers here.
I’m with Tim F. at top: I thought that once Trump dissed the Madonna of Fox News, it would be over for him. Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong…
The Sheriff's A Ni-
Trump has no party endorsements, no religious endorsements, no chamber of commerce endorsements, and is too busy selling hats and books to work on GOTV efforts, but hey look at those mid-December poll numbers!
Trump becomes a non-entity the moment Iowa is called for Ted Cruz. Then the real fun begins. (For a varying definition of fun.)
@Tom Levenson: Trump rode to prominence with huge coverage by Fox, but later, it has been CNN that have covered him as though he was the only one in the race. I wonder what Roger Ailes thinks about that.
@The Sheriff’s A Ni-: Trump has had paid staff in all the early states for months. Some people just choose to ignore that or assume the opposite. Sherman didn’t carry a lot of food but he marched through the Carolinas and Georgia just fine.
I’ve been mocking Nate Silver and the Trump is doooooooomed crowd for months. My blind spot was in thinking Cruz was so unlikable that even his being an asshole to Democrats couldn’t save him.
@Bobby Thomson: Somebody had to be the Christianist candidate. It was Mike Huckabee in 2008 and Rick Santorum in 2012, but they have loser stink now. I thought it would be Carson, but he had a rapid rise and fall like the 2012 clown-show candidates. And Trump will get some of them, but he doesn’t really speak their language. That leaves Cruz to be the religious right’s guy going into the actual primaries.
The Sheriff's A Ni-
@Bobby Thomson: Where’s the endorsements? Staff is all well and good, but are they knocking door to door or simply setting the stage for the next big rally? Do they know how to caucus? Cruz is already gathering up the churches, he’s got at least minimal party support, and he’s already challenging Trump’s polls in Iowa. I’ll stake my lunch on Cruz winning there, and with that he blows apart Trump’s aura of invincibility.
You should give yourself partial credit. The only thing you got wrong was the third party run. Whocoodanode the GOP base is the National Front?
Cruz will take Iowa, and Trump will take New Hampshire by a big margin.
The interesting thing is that Trump still has a wide lead in South Carolina, and in most of the other Southern states where I’ve seen primary polling. Cruz is gaining in these states and I imagine he hopes he can take them on the strength of winning Iowa. But he’ll have to move quickly.
The Sheriff's A Ni-
Actually, I was wrong. Cruz is already ahead by four points in Iowa – and rising.
The Sheriff's A Ni-
@Matt McIrvin: There’s eight days of ‘Cruz ascendant, Trump in free fall’ between Iowa and New Hampshire, not to mention the narrative if Cruz is leading hyyyyyuuuuge going into Iowa. Let’s not forget Howard Dean.
@Tim F.: heres is one from august 8th
I declared, with no small amount of confidence, that it’d be Bush/Walker. Then, unbowed, I changed my prediction to Walker/Rubio. Today, my Kristol-esque record* intact, I call Cruz/God Only Knows.**
* Though I did say, in 1973 or 1974, that Reagan would one day be President.
** Because god only knows what kind of masochistic, lickspittle loon would sign on to run with that guy.
Paul in KY
Still ridin the JEB….train!
Also, some of Trump’s support ain’t only Republicans. Both parties have promised little and delivered even less, preferring to squabble than to govern. And then politicians and journalists expect people either not to notice or to meekly shut up and go along with the program. But payback is not pretty.
And yes, it is absolutely the case that the Republicans have been the worst offenders, but when people who are tired of being kicked around kick back, they are not particular about which butt is getting the boot.
We still don’t know how much of this will translate into primary votes for Trump. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
And the main point was that the RR was split among multiple candidates for long periods in 2008 and 2012, and they never decided on just one. I did note this, that Cruz was going to lock them up this year. The mainstream(?!) candidates are the ones that are not getting a single decision from their backers this time.
@The Sheriff’s A Ni-: Iowa has a pretty bad record on picking the ultimate GOP nominee over the last two cycles. The Iowa Caucuses are basically meaningless at this point. The rest of the country looks at the winner and says: “Well there’s the hard right a-hole I won’t be voting for.”
Not enough to bother with. Trump’s bumps come when he spews bigotry. He jumped from nobody to the lead with ‘Mexicans are rapists and murderers.’ Yeah, a few people who have voted Democrat and like protest votes will go to him, but their numbers are so low they won’t even be visible in the general.
Like many others I predicted the GOP would flirt with every clown in the car, before settling on their “Daddy” candidate. I assumed it would be Jeb!
Now, I actually think the smart money is on Trump getting the nomination. If Jeb! had his numbers at this stage in the game all the pundits, and most of us, would be saying the race was over.
@The Sheriff’s A Ni-: Cruz isn’t John Kerry, and the field isn’t as bunched up as it was for Dems in 2004. Cruz CAN’T win New Hampshire, that gives Trump a second wind, and SC and NV become very important setups for Super Tuesday. Rubio allegedly has a field organization in NV and may be playing expectations/rope-a-dope. Very risky after what happened to Rudy. Unless someone in the establishment lane really breaks out in NH this looks like a Trump-Cruz race. And Cruz is just not likable and is hardly more predictable than Trump.
@Matt McIrvin: this.
Mike in NC
After 24 hours in transit from Europe, we got home late last night to begin the return to reality. Looks like as with Peak Wingnut, there can be no Peak Trump. Trump has cranked the crazy up to 11 and the media are hoping he can dial it to 12 and beyond.
@The Sheriff’s A Ni-: The thing is, the guy who is only the religious right’s guy usually doesn’t get the nomination. Reagan and GWB both had a lot of religious-right appeal but built a coalition with the money establishment. Cruz actually is a professional politician and he has a lot of rich backers, but he’s more specialized. I suppose the hope is that he can draw money conservatives into an anti-Trump coalition.
Gin & Tonic
Late in this thread, probably won’t be read, but a warning from Maria Alekhina of P*ssy Riot, who knows a thing or two about Putin: people thought he was a joke, like they now think about Trump. Beware.
Yeah, I had my bets on Walker and Bush early on. Assumed that big money + establishment backing would steamroll the reactionary wing like they did in 2012. Right now, it’s looking more and more like it’s going to be a Cruz-Trump showdown, with both running on a platform that consists purely of Being an Enormous Asshole. I think Cruz plans on really doubling down on the evangelical vote, but to peel enough of them away from Trump (the ones who have a painting in their living room of Jesus cleaning an AR-15 rifle), he’s going to have to take positions on socio-cultural issues that would put him well to the right of the Ayatollah. I can’t see a GOP candidate who advocates for the stoning of unwed mothers and outlawing yoga because of its demonic roots really being very effective in the general. But, as I said, I’ve been wrong before…
@Gin & Tonic: I know Trump is not a joke. On the other hand, a stream of moderates who dog whistle will never pull the curtain back on what the R’s have become.
And that has to surface for the boil to break.
Scalzi at his best, thanks for the link!
@Bill Arnold: Also:
That was the moment I started thinking he was the frontrunner for real. Like most observers, I thought he stepped in it by getting into a slap fight with Megyn Kelly (dream girl of Y-chromosome wingnut dolts everywhere) – at least thought he’d get taken down a peg if not fall apart. Nope! What other GOP politician has gone out of his way to pick a fight with the FoxNews bigwigs and not only survived, but decisively won the confrontation? At that point it was pretty clear that Trump was bigger than the party or its “establishment” (if one exists anymore).
I predicted Scott Walker would be the GOP nominee; of course, he was the first one to drop out of the race.
The Sheriff's A Ni-
@Bill: @Matt McIrvin: @Matt McIrvin: A little late since I had to do Christmas things, so I didn’t get a chance to explain better.
For starters, the party hates Cruz as well so he’s not winning either. What Cruz winning Iowa does do, however, is make Trump look weak enough to put New Hampshire in play for Rubio, Christie, Kasich, whoever. New Hampshire could wind up a three/four/five-way fustercluck. In any case, Trump’s inevitability armor goes into the sewer, ‘electability’ becomes the establishment buzzword du jour, and the GOP races onward to Super Tuesday with no clear frontrunner. Come July and you have a convention where the ‘most electable’ candidate who barely scraped out of a three-way with Cruz and Trump wins via superdelegates.
Throw in the Indians making the World Series and we could have the most exciting summer ever here in Cleveland.
Back in January, I thought Cruz would take the nomination. I haven’t wavered from that since.