.
Jeb is looking more like an afterthought in FL, where Trump leads & Cruz & Rubio tie https://t.co/U4MrYV72aS pic.twitter.com/rQjpG2OfOj
— Marc Caputo (@MarcACaputo) December 22, 2015
While the mature thing would be to deplore the gross distortion of our national polity by the vast funds of special interests, I’ll admit it gives me pleasure to read that JEB! has been flushing his backers’ funds down such a gaping rathole. Per Mark Murray at NBC:
As the year comes to a close, ad spending so far in the 2016 election has topped $111 million, and a third of that amount has come from Jeb Bush and his allies, according to ad-tracking data from SMG Delta.
By comparison, $35 million had been spent on TV and radio ads at this same point in time in the 2012 presidential race – with Mitt Romney and his allies (at $8.5 million) and pro-Obama forces (at $7.4 million) being the biggest spenders by the end of 2011.
But in this current election cycle, Jeb Bush’s Super PAC, Right to Rise, is the No. 1 spender, having aired $37 million in TV ads, while the campaign has chipped in an additional $1 million.
Put it another way: Bush and his allies have spent more in ad money so far in the 2016 presidential race ($38 million) than all of the ad money at this point in the 2012 cycle ($35 million)…
And he still can’t climb back into the double digits!
Old scars force me to admit that, yes, it is not actually impossible that the “establishment GOP” will find some way to force Third Time’s No Charm to the top of the 2016 ticket. And gods know the most likely Repub replacements (Rubio, Cruz, DTrumpf) are individually and collectively unfit to run a small-town general store, much less a nation of 300 million. But I’m still enjoying the thought of how unpleasant Christmas dinner at the Kennebunk estate is liable to be this year.
***********
Speaking of seasonal festivities, what’s on the agenda for this hump-iest of Hump Days?
Baud
But I’m sure Jeb would run the nation’s finances well.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: I’m sure he learned how to run the nation’s finances from his dad and brother.
Baud
WaPo retracted their Cruz cartoon, which was the right thing to do.
Now if they would only retract everything ever written by George Will…
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA: To be fair, his dad did agree to raise taxes.
Another Holocene Human
@BillinGlendaleCA: Well he sure ran Florida’s finances: straight into the ground.
Mustang Bobby
@Another Holocene Human: And don’t get me started on charter schools. Basically they are a license to rip off the state and take money from the public schools. Grr.
Baud
Don’t let facts stand in the way of fear
Another Holocene Human
So this happened.
Sounds like HRC needs to hire Obama’s social media team (the people from ACA signups at least, they were great–GOPers didn’t “get” it, but their target audience did) but they probably won’t want the job.
Even the idea is condescending; there is no way to pull that off.
Baud
@Another Holocene Human: bad link.
Baud
Problem solved
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: He was pretty much forced to do so.
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA: being forced to do something is the ultimate sin in the privileged mind of the modern Republican voter.
JPL
The powers that be in the Grand Old Party are probably trying to convince others to drop out with promises of cabinet positions. I assumed that they’d back Bush and promise Rubio the VP position, but I really don’t know.
They need one person to poll higher than Trump or Cruz. Currently they are just splitting the moderate support.
@Baud: What he did is against the state law, but IOKIYR.
Kay
I don’t know why no one talks about this. It’s really pretty amazing:
Mustang Bobby
@Kay: I’m sure there’s a RWNJ who is saying it’s because all the Radical Homosexuals have turned all the teenage boys gay.
Baud
@Kay:
Who would talk about it? There is no political faction in this country that believes in progress without Revolution®. Cyncism and fatalism are the zeitgeist of our time.
Baud
I wonder who’ll be the first to register the Ni-CLANGs.
Satby
@Kay: they’ll say it’s because of abstinence education. Which it isn’t, but fact-free is the new way we roll in this country.
Betty Cracker
@Kay: Wow, that is amazing.
Rashi
So CNN has a new poll with Trump at 39 and Cruz at 18. Yesterday another poll had Trump at 28 and Cruz at 24 which I asked about in another thread because those numbers seemed to conflict with other recent polls. Someone said Trump has always been at about 28 but that appears to be incorrect. I think CNN is saying that yesterday’s closer poll is an outlier. So what’s the reality of the reality of the polling here?
Kay
@Mustang Bobby:
It’s funny, because it was one of those “throw everything at it” issues so everyone can claim credit. My daughter and her friends have a whole comedy routine on how often they heard about it when they were in high school. She says this whole cadre of concerned adults were basically begging them- “please don’t get pregnant- tell us what you need- a lecture, after school programs, birth control, threats, magic incantations- anything- just ask!”
They got all of it- the abstinence people followed by the county health people followed by the “you’ll never go to college if you get pregnant” people. She says they would have brought in wizards next :)
Baud
Why doesn’t the GOP ever pay a price for their stances on these hot-button issues?
Ultraviolet Thunder
For the first time I’m actually worried about Trump. Up to now he’s been a joke and a buffoon. He still is, but after his speech in MI it’s apparent that he’ll say anything to anyone on the spur of the moment for approval. 35% tariff on imported automobiles, by executive order? That’s absurd. And if he’ll say anything then we have no idea what he’ll actually do. I prefer predictable evil to random mischief.
Iowa Old Lady
@Ultraviolet Thunder: Yeah, Trump fits in the Chaotic Evil category from D&D Or Chaotic Something.
Baud
@Kay:
The story just hit Vox.
Quick word search shows that they do not credit abstinence-only education.
Baud
@Iowa Old Lady: But who is the Dungeon Master?
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud:
That’s a poorly phrased sentence.
Phylllis
@Mustang Bobby: Actual conversation with a SC legislator re: charter schools:
“We need innovation.” Him.
“Why not allow public schools to innovate the way you’re allowing charters?” Me.
“Uh….” Him.
Translation–no money in it, but I can’t say that out loud.
JPL
@Baud: According to right wing repubs, the constitution only has one amendment and that’s the second. Oh there is another amendment that says one must say Merry Christmas.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: As Senator Franken used to say back when he was funny(OK, he still is); abstinence-only education works, until it doesn’t.
Rashi
@Ultraviolet Thunder: Trump becomes more worrisome because Clinton is both unliked and a terrible politician IMO. Clinton may indeed end up winning this election though. Bill that is.
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA: When one gets old and fat enough, it works fine.
Or so I’ve heard.
Rashi
@Baud: Why would Cotton or anyone else pay a price on that issue. Seems to me a majority of Americans are willing to lose some privacy for the promise of more security.
Matt McIrvin
@Rashi: Huffington Post’s poll aggregates are good to look at. There’s so much spread in these numbers that any single poll is pointless to look at in isolation, especially since there’s a natural media bias toward touting surprising outliers. By averaging them you can get a picture of the race.
Cruz is gaining and is solidly in second place. But Trump is gaining too. What’s really happening is that Ben Carson is losing the support he had several weeks ago, and they’re both picking up those voters. And everyone else is losing too, except possibly for Chris Christie down in the single digits (who is apparently going for broke campaigning in NH).
Kay
@BillinGlendaleCA:
The US vastly expanded access to health care for lower income children over 20 years thru Medicaid. I don’t know what role that played (and it will be hard to tease out factors because they really did hit teen pregnancy with everything) but one would think there would be some pay-off showing up at some point.
Baud
@Rashi: If that were true, why did Obama face so much heat with the NSA stuff?
Satby
@Rashi: Yeah, no. Lots of people like Hillary Clinton just fine, and the people who don’t tend to quote bilge put out by the VRWC to bolster their dislike. People who have met her in person normally say she’s warm and engaging. The unlikable comes from all the way back when she suggested as First Lady that there might be better things to ask of her than her favorite cookie recipes.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: This is true, I have personal experience.
Baud
@Satby:
MSNBC had a clip of her at a town hall talking to a girl with asthma. Hillary looked really good there.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Satby: Hillary’s likable enough.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: The American people want privacy AND security.
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA: And ponies!
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: No, unicorns.
Matt McIrvin
And for what it’s worth (not a great deal at this point, but you can at least get a sense of the current state of opinion), here’s the head-to-head on Clinton vs. Trump and Clinton vs. Cruz.
Clinton has always led both of them; her lead over Trump shrank to just a point or two at the end of the summer but is now growing, I think because the vaguely dissatisfied “send a message” centrists are actually starting to get offended by Trump, even as he gains primary standing. I think Cruz is still in the phase of gaining as people learn his name and treat him as a serious candidate; Clinton’s lead over him is shrinking.
Rashi
@Baud: The only heat I remember him facing was after Snowden because there was illegal activity going on if memory serves. And even given that, privacy just doesn’t seem to be a top concern of most people especially in the face of what they consider threats to their security. Privacy issues are of great concern to some but that appears to be a small minority.
MattF
@Rashi: It’s been mentioned before, but individual polls are unreliable these days. The primary problem is that the response rate is low– below 10 percent. The low response rate means that polls are biassed– anything that correlates with ‘answers the phone’ could have an impact on the results. This, in turn, means there have to be ‘corrections’– which is a touchy subject among pollsters. Aggregate polls are better, not just because the number of responders is higher, but also because all the corrections are averaged. It’s really a mess.
Baud
@Matt McIrvin:
Yeah, no one knows who Cruz is yet.
gene108
I hate Politifact
There’s a pie chart meme about how small Federal spending on Food Stamps is. Politifact calls it misleading because it seems to only highlight discretionary spending and ignores the mandatory spending, such as Social Security and Medicare.
For fucks sake, when Congress talks about cutting government spending it is known among those who know that they are talking about discretionary spending.
Now people, who rely on Politifact for accuracy think the pie chart is wrong and therefore the absurditity of cutting food stamps to balance the budget isn’t absurd or might be possible, because the pie chart isn’t 100% accurate.
I hate these fuckers.
Baud
@Rashi: I think your memory is faulty.
Rashi
@Matt McIrvin: Thanks for the link.
@Satby: She has very high negatives last I looked.
@MattF: Yeah, I heard some pollster saying that polls have always been designed for land lines which is now presenting a problem with all the exclusive cell use.
Matt McIrvin
@Baud: That head-to-head chart on HuffPo is actually a bit weird: if you click on “Create Your Own” and do what I think is simpler poll averaging, you find that in very recent polls Hillary’s lead over Cruz has shrunk to just two or three points, whereas their model shows a bigger lead. I’m not sure what the cause of the difference is there; it may be very recent motion.
(And some of the biggest leads for Hillary come from “Morning Consult” which I suspect is a pro-Trump propaganda outfit trying to knock Cruz’s numbers down, so I would discount those.)
The question is whether, as knowledge of Cruz increases, people come to like him or dislike him. I think Trump (who probably has as high name recognition as Hillary Clinton) went through a phase when a lot of people who were not strongly partisan were supporting him on vague “send a message/shake things up/it’ll be funny” grounds, but as he continues to say horrible shit they’re starting to abandon him even as his lead among the hardcore asshole crowd solidifies. I have a hard time believing that a majority of Americans could actually find Ted Cruz likeable, but they’ve surprised me before.
Baud
@Matt McIrvin: I have the same reaction to Cruz as you. Probably the most unlikable person in the race, even taking account of Trump.
Rashi
@Baud: Could be. I just don’t remember privacy being a serious problem for him outside the Snowden revelations.
I heard Mark Shields say that when Bush won the presidency everyone who worked in Austin headquarters, down to the gophers, were offered a job in Washington. Everyone that is but Ted Cruz.
Betty Cracker
@gene108: Yeah, Politifact sounds like a good idea because FSM knows we need an objective source of facts. But because the cowardly MSM compulsion to privilege balance over truth too often finds its way into Politifact rulings, it obscures the facts as often as it illuminates them.
FlipYrWhig
@Baud:
Agreed. I can’t imagine a less likeable white person.
Botsplainer
Matt Bevin is exactly the person the RWNJs wanted. He just executive ordered a change to marriage licenses that will be near impossible to fulfill while issuing statutorially compliant licenses in order to placate Kim Davis (the order is full of whiny assed titty baby Talibornagain talking points). He undid Beshear’s order restoring voting rights to non-violent felons, and undid an order mandating a higher minimum wage for low level state employees.
*sigh*
PurpleGirl
Remember when Bristol Palin was going to be a spokesperson for abstinence-only education? Still makes me laugh. I think she needs to retake the class, seems she failed it the first time she took it.
Baud
@Botsplainer:
Hmm. I know it’s legal to deny felons voting rights, but I wouldn’t have thought it legal to take away voting rights that had been restored. I hope that gets challenged.
FlipYrWhig
@Rashi: I’m sure the story will never gain enough traction to make a difference, but to me one of the most telling Cruz anecdotes was the one about how when he went to Harvard Law he refused to study with students from “lesser Ivies.” That’s one of the more condescending things I’ve ever heard. If it had been Obama who said that at HLS, we’d all have heard about it regularly for his entire non-presidential life, because he’d never have gotten elected in the first place. The idea that non-college-educated people would ever flock to this guy’s banner is astounding.
Botsplainer
@Rashi:
Your memory is wrong. Dudebros were worried about the NSA knowing their porn habits and RWNJs were worried that their sedition would be acted on. It was the perfect storm.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@Baud: It’s on RawStory, for those who missed it.
I’m sure Ted is crying all the way to the bank about it. :-/
Cheers,
Scott.
(Who like’s Ann’s stuff, but rarely sees it because he doesn’t read the WaPo any more.)
Botsplainer
@Baud:
The ones who actually got certificates of restoration between Beshear’s order and now won’t be affected, but that number is vanishingly low. There was a paperwork backlog.
He bleated some wishes for legislative action, but his party has consistently blocked it in the state Senate.
Germy
Speaking of Bush, I saw this in the NewYorker:
Baud
@Germy: The really bad thing about Kerry losing is that W. got to replace Rehnquist with Roberts. (Bush also got to replace O’Connor, but I don’t think O’Connor would have resigned with Kerry in the White House). The silver lining is that I doubt Kerry would have had time to stop the financial meltdown, and he and all Democrats would have been blamed for it if he were the president for all eternity. And I don’t think the country would have forgiven Democrats as easily as they forgave Republicans in 2010.
Baud
@Botsplainer: Gotcha.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet: s /like’s/likes
(sheesh)
Cheers,
Scott.
debbie
@Baud:
Bevin was talking like he’d abolish gay marriage in Kentucky if he was elected governor. This seems like a prissy move on his part, assuming this is all he intends to do.
Baud
@debbie: Who knows? As long as liberals seem unhappy, his supporters will eat it up. I don’t think they care about specifics.
Matt McIrvin
@Germy: Damn, Kerry is still hanging out with that turd Mike Barnicle? Takes all kinds, I guess.
debbie
@Kay:
Planned Parenthood, with their high school programs, of course has played a large part in this decrease. Hopefully, the right to lifers will be magnanimous enough to acknowledge that.
Botsplainer
@debbie:
You should see the executive order. It was a paen to Heartland Family Values and authentic expressions of devotion to Sweet Baby Jesus, The Troops and saintly grandmas behind white picket fences earnestly kneeling in prayer.
MomSense
@Kay:
SCHIP helped me so much. Before the ACA when I couldn’t afford or get insurance, I could at least make sure two of my kids had medical, dental, and vision care.
Without physicals and insurance, students can’t participate in school sports which adds another layer of disappointment and isolation for kids.
debbie
@Baud:
Then his supporters are bigger idiots than I thought. I hope someone in Kentucky will call them out on this.
Matt McIrvin
The thing about claiming the 2004 election was rigged is that the results in Ohio were just not that far out of line with state-level polling from the final week. What made people smell something fishy was leaked early exit polling, but (contrary to popular belief) those polls are not as accurate, historically.
Rashi
@FlipYrWhig: Everyone will know about that if he gets the nomination which I don’t think he will. Did you know he stopped listening to Rock and started listening to Country because after 9/11 Rock just didn’t speak to him anymore?
Baud
@debbie: Nah. They’re not idiots. They understand the importance of voting.
debbie
@Matt McIrvin:
Having had to stand in line for 1.5 hours (when in previous presidential elections it was no more than 5-10 minutes) and having heard reports that there was only one voting machine in the precinct that served Ohio State even as many machines stood idle in wealthier, whiter precincts in Columbus, I know that exit polls had zero impact on my opinion of the 2004 election.
Amir Khalid
OT, but what’s happened to Richard’s post upstairs? There is no post headline, no byline, no time stamp, and no comment box at the bottom.
Germy
@Baud:
Excellent point. The Villagers would have seen to this, I believe.
Germy
from der wikipedia:
Kay
@MomSense:
The people I encounter were kind of amazing about it “as long as the kids are covered we’re okay”
It was nice to hear, because that was a big battle as you know- Bush went so far as to veto one of the expansions.
FlipYrWhig
@Germy: For the same reason, if 9/11 had happened on Gore’s watch we’d probably not see a Democrat elected president for the ensuing 40 years.
Germy
@FlipYrWhig:
I agree. But I wonder if I’m naive to think Gore would have taken warnings seriously and heightened airline security? I suppose the attacks were inevitable, Gore or Bush…
Kay
@debbie:
The problem with that for me is Ohio manages election basics at the county level. I don’t doubt the Sec of State made it difficult for liberal counties or precincts to get machines, but every Bd of Elections has equal numbers of R and D reps. They should have been screaming bloody murder 2 weeks out and if that didn’t work there’s a court in every county and plenty of motions to file. They actually designate a common pleas judge as the emergency go-to for election-related motions until the polls close. Worse came to worse in this county (we only have two common pleas judges) one could knock on his door and get an order to do or not do something re: polling place access. What were the Democrats on the Bd of Elections in those counties doing for the 9 month lead-up to the election? They can demand machines.
It’s not like it was a big surprise. They plan Presidential elections months and months out and they have piles of stats from the last one. They know how many machines they need.
PurpleGirl
@debbie: Are you kidding — right to lifers acknowledge that Planned Parenthood programs helped reduce the number of teen pregnancies. Planned Parenthood is evil to them. PP stands for a woman’s right to her own moral agency. They believe in Vatican Roulette — any and all sex outside of marriage must be allowed to end in punishment (pregnancy) for the woman involved.
MomSense
@Kay:
People are trying to make the best of bad situations. Parents who are struggling financially worry a lot about how it will affect their children. Financial stress is insidious because it permeates every aspect of your life. Kids aren’t dumb. They look around and know the score.
rikyrah
Good Morning, Everyone :)
Bartholomew
Thank you yet AGAIN Ms. Laurie for updating us on what Republicans are doing. Your talents here are wasted, you could be a regular MSM reporter.
Bernie Sanders slams Federal Reserve in NYT op-ed
Elizabelle
@MomSense:
Did not realize that about SCHIP. Wish it were more widely known; might make a lot of people question their opposition to kids getting insurance.
Thank dog and our lithe duck president for ACA.
Kay
@debbie:
The Ohio “election protection” apparatus (it’s volunteers but the lawyer-leader is paid thru the Party) do evaluations on each county prior to election day now. The access and public info request is part of the state code on elections so they use that process. There’s a state lead and a county lead. The state lead sends out questions to be answered in writing by the election official- how many machines, handicapped access, emergency planning (power outage o weather) and the county lead collects that info from the bd of elections staff. It serves two purposes- it’s oversight and it would also come into play of there were litigation post-election. That’s what they did after 2004.
There will be a close Presidential race in Ohio and there will be litigation. It’s just a matter of “when”.
EconWatcher
@Germy:
The Swift Boat attack on Kerry was indeed disgraceful. But Kerry doesn’t sound very presidential (or even very adult) blaming Shrum for his loss.
Who picked Shrum? Who decided to follow his idiotic advice not to hit back against slander?
debbie
@Kay:
This is good to know. I don’t know who was in charge of the Dems back in 2004, but I know the party — at state and county levels — is more aggressive now. A good thing.
debbie
@PurpleGirl:
Yes, it shows that their “stated” purpose is contrary to the actual purpose.
Despite the warm weather here, there have been fewer demonstrators outside the PP clinic near me (one yesterday as opposed to 10-15 along both sides of the street a couple weeks ago). I suppose it could be due to the holidays, but maybe it’s due to the Ohio AG’s statement that he wouldn’t pursue PP’s disposal of fetal remains after insisting he would. Maybe the wind’s been taken out of their sails.
Kay
@MomSense:
We really saw it during the financial crash because almost everyone was affected. We had really extreme emotional displays in the law office – you could tell people were just wound up and at their breaking point. We had 16% unemployment and the foreclosures (I think) had this really profound effect, where people thought the world was just ending because it’s visible- the local paper prints the notices and it was page after page after page. I would get so upset driving thru neighborhoods because they pile belongings up at the curb and there were always childrens’ toys- they’re so brightly colored.
I hold a grudge about the finance sector because of this experience. I will never forget it. They did nothing to mitigate the effects of their own recklessness and they fought every single thing anyone else tried to do, all the while whining about how they were being demonized.
rikyrah
PHUCK.OUTTA.HERE.
Nothing but posturing.
I simply don’t believe that they actually sought an indictment. This was all for show.
I wouldn’t meet with that muthaphucka either.
………………………….
Sandra Bland’s family rejects prosecutor’s offer to meet about probe into jail death
A day after a grand jury decided against indicting anyone in the jail death of Sandra Bland, a special prosecutor denied accusations of a cover-up from family of the Naperville woman and said he was “begging to meet with them” to discuss the investigation.
But the family said the prosecutor’s appeal has come too late.
“The family does not believe him or anything he says,” said Cannon Lambert, an attorney representing the family. “You would think that before they announced the grand jury findings, they would have reached out to the Bland family. The family expected the disappointing news because of the way things were postured.”
Bland died July 13 in the Waller County Jail near Houston, three days after she was arrested during a traffic stop that turned confrontational. She was found hanging from a plastic trash bag, and her death was ruled a suicide. Family members have questioned the arresting officers actions and have said they don’t believe Bland killed herself.
Darrell Jordan, one of five special prosecutors overseeing the case, said a grand jury met on three occasions — for 11 hours on Monday — before announcing that no felony crimes were committed by the sheriff’s office or jailers in the treatment of Bland.
……………………
Jordan said he would like to meet with family members and “answer every question they have.”
“I’m begging to meet with them,” he said by phone Tuesday. “Their attorney has my personal cellphone number. Anytime the family is ready to talk, we can. Early morning, midnight, please call me.”
But Lambert said the family is not “confident” it would be told the truth. And he said having the grand jury continue meeting was just a stalling tactic.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-sandra-bland-texas-grand-jury-20151222-story.html
Elizabelle
@Kay: Yeah. The finance sector was auditioning for tumbrels. For sure.
MomSense
@Kay:
I definitely share your loathing of the financial sector. I can still hear Mort Zuckerman telling the Morning Joe crew in 2012 that business leaders and Wall St were so angry that President Obama doesn’t know anything about business and is so bad on the economy. I wanted to punch him. Apparently these business geniuses forgot that they needed us to bail them out after their business acumen crashed yet world economy and they were only back on top because we fucking saved them to avoid more human misery. The arrogance is breathtaking.
Paul in KY
@Germy: Sen. Kerry screwed Kerry, IMO. You overrule the dumbass when he’s being a dumbass. The buck stops at Kerry for not hitting back.
Paul in KY
@Germy: I’m confident Pres. Gore would have responded forcefully & competently, had the attacks occurred on his watch.
They probably wouldn’t have, as Pres. Gore would have been all over those many red flags/warnings of something big to happen. However, if it had gone down, Pres. Gore would have whupped Bin Laden & his band of thugs & also ensured Saudi Arabia was held accountable for their support of that POS.
gene108
@Baud:
Democrats don’t have billionaire sugar daddies willing to pour millions into rebranding the Republican Party as the TEA Party.
Without the super rich tilting the scales, things would be a lot more balanced.
I don’t think its a coincidence that post-Citizen’s United the Party with the most billionaire sugar daddies to through money around on its behalf – the Republicans – has become resurgent.
Redshift
@Germy:
No, they weren’t, and we should never concede that point. The attempt may have been inevitable by that point, but it’s success absolutely wasn’t.
If you read the report of the 9/11 commission, which was prohibited from assigning blame, the unavoidable conclusion is not just that the Bush Administration failed to stop the attacks, it’s that they didn’t even try. They were a bunch of arrogant assholes who had already decided what was important to focus on, and they weren’t going to listen to so-called experts.
It’s possible a Gore Administration wouldn’t have been able to stop them (though I think it’s reasonably likely they could have.) What is undeniable is that they would have listened to career officials and done their best to try.
Enhanced Voting Techinques
@Matt McIrvin:
I recall everyone on the left, me inclided, were guilty of poll unscewing in 2004. Go look back at look at the polls and it was clear Bush was going to win by the margin he did.
As for why – Jimmy Carter pointed out Bush was a war time president and that automatically gives a president a boost in the polls. If you want the real reason for our awsome Iraq adventure.
Matt McIrvin
@debbie: Ken Blackwell was obviously doing everything he could to put his thumb on the scale. The question is whether that was enough to flip the state from D to R. Mark Blumenthal did some analyses after the fact that concluded that it wasn’t, though I think the pro case is still arguable.
Greg Palast was probably the most energetic proponent of the case that Ohio was stolen. But Greg Palast is always the most energetic proponent of the case that every Republican win is stolen, or (if it hasn’t happened yet) will be stolen. He does some good investigative reporting and often uncovers real abuses, but he always has to make the most maximal case he can that every single caged or provisional vote or invalidated registration would have been a vote for a Democrat, and I think it damages his credibility.
Villago Delenda Est
@Kay: The MSM does not care. News like that does not attract eyeballs; in fact, it probably hurts their ratings, particularly among the forced birth crowd.
Betty Cracker
@Enhanced Voting Techinques: People are generally reluctant to change horsemen mid-apocalypse. It’s stupid, but there we are.
Matt McIrvin
@Enhanced Voting Techinques: In 2004, online state-poll aggregation was in its infancy. Nate Silver wasn’t doing it yet. Andrew S. Tanenbaum was doing it at electoral-vote.com, and I think RealClearPolitics might have already been doing it (a right-wing site, but I think their poll aggregation is good and honest, though their selection of polls to track might be a little more Republican than the others).
Sam Wang started that year, but even he had a pro-Kerry “unskewing” adjustment he put in to account for his belief that undecideds break strongly for the challenger at the last minute.
To his great credit, in the days leading up to the election, Wang publicly released both his un-adjusted and adjusted results. The un-adjusted results on the eve of the election turned out to be absolutely dead on (just like they were in 2008 and 2012), and he posted a somewhat contrite correction and never made that kind of adjustment again. Tanenbaum’s aggregation pretty much converged on the actual results in the last week too.
(However, Sam Wang was also one of the people jumping the gun on the decline of Trump around the end of this summer! That was on the basis of eyeballing fluctuations in HuffPo’s aggregator, which turned out to be short-lived.)
Villago Delenda Est
@debbie: Never. The sluts must be punished. MUST.
MomSense
@rikyrah:
I wouldn’t talk to him either. The prosecuters are not serious about justice for Sandra Bland. The begging , just like the grand jury as conducted, is all for show.
chopper
@Phylllis:
Man, he isn’t well-trained in the talking points. You’re supposed to blame the union.
debbie
@Matt McIrvin:
Add in the things they can’t quantify — like how many discouraged voters gave up and went home (again, OSU students with better things to do) — and I still think the answer would be yes.