Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

đŸŽ¶ Those boots were made for mockin’ đŸŽ”

I really should read my own blog.

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

Jack be nimble, jack be quick, hurry up and indict this prick.

Republicans choose power over democracy, every day.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

Let me file that under fuck it.

How can republicans represent us when they don’t trust women?

“The defense has a certain level of trust in defendant that the government does not.”

How any woman could possibly vote for this smug smarmy piece of misogynistic crap is beyond understanding.

Schmidt just says fuck it, opens a tea shop.

Every reporter and pundit should have to declare if they ever vacationed with a billionaire.

It could be worse. Vance could have said “post-menopausal sows.” Waiting for that audiotape to surface.

When we show up, we win.

GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

Balloon Juice, where there is always someone who will say you’re doing it wrong.

The current Supreme Court is a rogue court. Very dangerous.

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

The Supreme Court cannot be allowed to become the ultimate, unaccountable arbiter of everything.

There is one struggling party in US right now, and it’s not the Democrats.

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

Republicans got rid of McCarthy. Democrats chose not to save him.

Never forget that he train is barreling down on Trump, even as he dances on the tracks.

You are here: Home / Elections / Election 2016 / Late Night Open Thread: Martin O’Malley, Not A ‘Kingmaker’

Late Night Open Thread: Martin O’Malley, Not A ‘Kingmaker’

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CNN lays out the strategy behind “How Martin O’Malley Could Decide Who Wins Iowa”:

… While O’Malley’s core support is small, those backing him tend to be committed caucus-goers who understand the process, would never skip it and know how to cut deals, several Democratic strategists said.

And the Clinton and Sanders camps have each made a point of identifying O’Malley’s backers and persistently reaching out in an effort to become their second choice.

It’s in part an effort by Clinton to reverse a mistake of her 2008 campaign. Then-Illinois Sen. Barack Obama identified supporters of lower-polling candidates like Chris Dodd and Joe Biden and courted them heavily, while Clinton’s campaign purged other candidates’ supporters from its contact lists…

If the race is a nail-biter, the O’Malley voters could be particularly influential in precincts with odd numbers of delegates — 11, rather than 10, for example — because they could tip what looks like a tie into a one-delegate victory there.

“In a tight race, as someone starts getting the edge on that second choice pick, it could make all the difference in the world,” said Brad Anderson, a Democratic strategist who led Obama’s re-election effort in Iowa in 2012.

The Clinton campaign even has an app for volunteers to count the number of supporters for each candidate and send caucusers to O’Malley’s side if it keeps Sanders from winning an extra delegate…

So, you can’t say the HRClinton campaign didn’t learn anything from the Obama people! (Whether picking the potential leader of 310 million people should come down to 11 random Iowans is an argument for another day.) Buzzfeed describes the eleventh-dimensional chess maneuvers in more detail:

… A precinct captain, Jerome Lehtola, confirmed to BuzzFeed News that the campaign has trained precinct captains to release supporters to O’Malley if the move can make him “viable” without hurting Clinton. A Clinton aide said the campaign has trained more than 4,000 volunteer precinct captains to handle a host of different scenarios, including ones where caucus-goers are released to or recruited from another camp…

This kind of tactical maneuvering is an old Iowa pattern, part of what a former Iowa aide to John Kerry in 2004, Addisu Demissie, described as being part of the state’s “brilliantly, gloriously, esoterically small-d democratic” tradition. (Demissie describes the caucus math in excruciating detail in his piece.) The Clinton and Obama campaigns played similar tactical games in 2008, and a deal between Obama’s and Bill Richardson’s campaigns was controversial enough to be kept top secret at the time. At the time, outraged Clinton aides called reporters to denounce the deal. This time around, there is no indication that an agreement is involved…

The software, which Lehtola showed BuzzFeed News on his iPhone, allows them to enter the complete number of attendees at a given caucus, and then to divvy them up by candidate. The app shows how many supporters each candidate needs to reach their thresholds. Precinct captains can then calculate easily whether, say, Clinton can — without cost to her own delegate count — boost O’Malley to a viability. And they’ve been trained, Lehtola said, in that maneuver.

A senior Sanders caucus strategist, who also spoke on background, allowed that caucus rules allow for these kind of math games, but said the Sanders campaign has no similar plan. They have trained their volunteers to play it straight, the strategist said — try to get as many people to the caucus site as possible, and then try to recruit caucus goers from among the candidates not deemed to be viable…

But Politico, as per the tweet at the top, insists O’Malley will not go quietly:

… The former Maryland governor — in distant third place with between three and five percent of the vote here, according to recent polls — could, under quirky caucus rules, decide a too-close-to-call contest between Clinton and Sanders if he instructs his precinct captains to throw his support to either one of them.

But he won’t — unlike previous caucus also-rans…

When I asked him if he was encouraging his backers to stick with him for the duration of the caucus, he said, “Yes,” adding, “My message to them is to hold strong.”

… O’Malley, tired but defiant as he paused between events on Sunday, said “many” of his backers have told him, “I’m caucusing for you and if we are not viable, I’m going home
 This is a democratic process, people make their own free choices, but it’s my sense
 there’s not a whole lot of enthusiasm going into the second [round] for the other two.”…

Well, he is Irish* — we’ve got a long proud heritage of going down fighting while cutting off our own noses to spite our faces. And if either Clinton or Sanders is looking for a vice-presidential candidate, he’ll have the satisfaction of saying he didn’t lower himself to mere politicking kiss up to the other guy — for what that’s worth towards paying off his campaign debts.

* (I can say that, so am I)

Reader Interactions

49Comments

  3. 3.

    srv

    If I had to vote for a democrat and Webb or Liebermann were not available, I could go O’Malley*

    * (I can say that, so am I)

  4. 4.

    srv

    Clinton’s campaign raised $112 million in 2015, and top Democratic billionaire donor George Soros recently gave $6 million to her super PAC, according to new figures filed with the Federal Election Commission Sunday night.

    What was that about the Koch Bros again?

  12. 12.

    magurakurin

    The Sanders campaign is crying foul over long standing caucus tactics. Are they for real? Devine has to know about it, he’s been in Iowa before in other campaigns. Do they just think their supporters are so green that they can drum outrage over this for some advantage in fund raising or otherwise? Either way it’s not a good look.

  15. 15.

    magurakurin

    @BillinGlendaleCA:

    Could be. But Sanders hasn’t lost yet. I am quite sure he will though and I bet the books written after will reveal some interesting things that will secure Devine in the Mark Penn hall of fame. One thing is sure, Devine should keep himself off tv. He may well be some backroom mastermind, but when I saw him talking about the data theft he was stammering fuckwit. But I mean that in a nice way.

  16. 16.

    amk

    “(Whether picking the potential leader of 310 million people should come down to 11 random Iowans is an argument for another day.)”

    given their poor record of choosing the presidents, not worth the effort. it’s all about who drops out rather than who becomes the prezzie.

  18. 18.

    satby

    I’m going to try to avoid all news about this today. I’m just glad Iowa will be over soon. But I’m sure I would be homicidally sick of it if I lived in Iowa.

  19. 19.

    satby

    OT, since there was a question yesterday about me “painting baskets for Valentine’s Day”; the results are up in my store now. I think they came out pretty well.

  20. 20.

    magurakurin

    I just the 7pm news here in Japan. The lead over story was Iowa. They had a split screen picture and under Sanders they had written 瀟䌚䞻矩者, “socialist.” They didn’t bother to go into detail about what variety of socialist he was. The main focus was on Trump and his side show. They refer to him mostly as an entertainer. There have been a few entertainers here who have been in politics and even one pro wrestler who wore his mask to the Diet.

    I’ve also been watching Portuguese national television to try and learn Portuguese. They are really focusing on Trump, and not in a good way. Trump seems to be scaring the bejezus out of the whole world. As well he should.

  22. 22.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    Des Moines Register Poll (Ann Selzer) — Iowa — Jan 30th

    Democratic caucus goers:

    Feelings toward Barack Obama:

    Favorable………90%
    Unfavorable…… 9%
    ———————————————————————

    ‘If Bernie’s going to beat Clinton it’s bc people don’t want a 3rd Obama term.’ — Sanders strategist Tad Devine
    9:50 AM – 26 Oct 2015

    Please proceed, Senator

  25. 25.

    BillinGlendaleCA

    @magurakurin: We visited Japan about 20 years ago on our way to Korea, and took a city tour of Tokyo. At the Tokyo Tower the guide pointed to the Japanese Diet, my wife was confused and thought it referred to the Japanese eating habits or a trendy restaurant.

    ETA: ACK!! it was closer to 25 years ago, I old.

  29. 29.

    magurakurin

    @BillinGlendaleCA: We did that same route about ten years ago. We poked our heads in through the gate since everything was closed up the day we were there. Never saw anything but the outside of the building from the street. We saw the Tokyo Tower from nearby, but we didn’t actually go to it. Of course the big attraction now is the Tokyo Sky Tree a huge new tower they built just a few years back. I haven’t been to see it yet. We might go this year though. I only ever made one trip to Tokyo. We live near Osaka, so we tend to visit there or Kobe or Kyoto when we want to go to the big city.

  31. 31.

    BillinGlendaleCA

    @magurakurin: My wife’s mom was born and raised in Nara, though not Japanese but Korean. The wife’s always wanted to visit there, but alas…

  33. 33.

    Iowa Old Lady

    @David *Rafael* Koch: Her father is a professional acquaintance/friend of mine. I remember when she dropped out of college to act. He was much less hysterical than I would have been.

  35. 35.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @David *Rafael* Koch:
    Now, that is a good gown. Enough unexpected skin to tease, but tasteful and dignified with actually a lot of coverage. Mix of classical and modern in the wide skirt that actually works instead of looking goofy. Plus, the color scheme suits her.

  36. 36.

    japa21

    My predictions for tonight:

    Dems: Clinton wins fairly easily. I think they are prepared to get their people to the caucuses despite weather conditions whereas I am not sure Sanders is. Plus, Sanders biggest support will come in the college towns where not as many delegates are up for grabs.

    Rep: Cruz will win in a squeaker. Trump’s supporters are loud mouths, but I don’t see them braving poor weather to go to the caucuses. They’ll just get on their snowmobiles and go bar hopping instead.

  37. 37.

    Amir Khalid

    The conventional wisdom seems to be that Bernie must win both Iowa and New Hampshire, which are among the states where he is strongest, to keep his challenge to Hillary going. If that’s right, what are his throw-in-the-towel criteria?

  38. 38.

    El Caganer

    O’Malley won’t settle – he’s determined to have his one-way ticket to palookaville get punched,

  39. 39.

    Bobby Thomson

    @magurakurin: they aren’t wrong about the greenness of their supporters. They also planted a story about caucus precinct chiefs being from out of state in which Sanders’ staff admitted it’s completely legal and happens every time, but suggested that Iowans might take offense. These guys are bush league bozos.

  42. 42.

    Miss Bianca

    I’m sorry…the words “Martin O’Malley” and “kingmaker” in the same sentence, I…I just…well, he said he wasn’t one, and I for one believe him.

  43. 43.

    FlipYrWhig

    @Bobby Thomson: One of the meta-narratives of the Sanders campaign is that The Man is pulling out all the stops to try to thwart their mighty strength. The most impressive example of this was how the story about the Sanders campaign messing around in the voter list file became, for them, an example of how the DNC and DWS had it in for them. It’s underhanded (and corporate and establishment-y) to run against Bernie Sanders by “organizing people to vote for a different candidate” and “capitalizing on his missteps” and “pointing out the effects of his policy suggestions.” SMFH.

  44. 44.

    dogwood

    @Bobby Thomson:
    No doubt a lot of Sanders people feel about him the way people like me feel about Obama. And no doubt Sanders can draw a crowd as well. But crowds and enthusiasm aside, what got Obama elected really boils down to discipline and professionalism. Volunteers and hired organizers who knew how to do their jobs and translate enthusiasm into votes. We’ll see if Bernie’s people are up to the task soon enough.

  45. 45.

    different-church-lady

    @magurakurin:

    The Sanders campaign is crying foul over long standing caucus tactics.

    They like to cry foul over six things before breakfast.

  47. 47.

    Amir Khalid

    @charon:
    I don’t pretend to understand the “superdelegate” thing (do they wear red capes and fly, or something?) but it does seem Bernie would need thumping wins over Hillary in his best states (Vermont, Iowa and New Hamster) to stand a chance of catching up to her in delegates.

  48. 48.

    hitchhiker

    O’Malley knows that Hillary is going to be the nominee. His smart play is to not look like he tried to help her (would alienate the Berners forever) and definitely not look like he tried to help Bernie (would alienate the Democratic power-brokers).

    In other words, he wants a future of some kind in elected politics. He’d be stupid to pull a John Edwards in the hope that a magically elected Bernie would reward him later.

  49. 49.

    Zip Code Lookup

    He’ll make either candidate a good cabinet or vp choice – had we not had two very good options for more-establishment and more-independent he would have had a chance (at least of coming in 2nd) – and he added a necessary 3rd voice to the debates that 1) eased even lower the already low “attack” theme 2) showed how much more solidified the democratic platform is when Clinton & Sanders don’t agree by partially agreeing with them both or by explaining the difference between the two 3) got to say things about the GOP that were attacks (“that immigrant bashing carnival barker” without the other candidates getting their hands dirty and provoking additional GOP attacks.

    From MD. I already knew he wasn’t a sleazy person, but have my issues with what he did to black communities in Baltimore re: crime and even moreso that he did not return and mend fences or do real work when the city was being maligned by national media as ‘burning to the ground in riots’. If someone evolves on hard policing to community-based law enforcement and things like decriminalizing pot, then I want them to return to the scene of their previous results and help defend those communities that they marginalized. I relinquished my issues with him touting education (because the quality is very very dependent on neighborhood) because new MD leadership has been chipping away at education funding and important birth through five initiatives including a pathway to eventual statewide pre-k, as well as childcare and school nutrition grant money and regulations, and I will grant that O’Malley had a lot to do with those initiatives.

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