Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Humiliatingly small and eclipsed by the derision of millions.

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

if you can’t see it, then you are useless in the fight to stop it.

“Perhaps I should have considered other options.” (head-desk)

She burned that motherfucker down, and I am so here for it. Thank you, Caroline Kennedy.

Cancel the cowardly Times and Post and set up an equivalent monthly donation to ProPublica.

Usually wrong but never in doubt

You cannot shame the shameless.

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

Nothing says ‘pro-life’ like letting children go hungry.

When they say they are pro-life, they do not mean yours.

There is no compromise when it comes to body autonomy. You either have it or you do not.

If ‘weird’ was the finish line, they ran through the tape and kept running.

Those who are easily outraged are easily manipulated.

Quote tweet friends, screenshot enemies.

They think we are photo bombing their nice little lives.

“Loving your country does not mean lying about its history.”

Fear or fury? The choice is ours.

Do we throw up our hands or do we roll up our sleeves? (hint, door #2)

Stand up, dammit!

Red lights blinking on democracy’s dashboard

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

You are here: Home / Elections / Election 2016 / Open Thread: O’Malley Is Out

Open Thread: O’Malley Is Out

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Per the Washington Post:

Former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley was set to announce the suspension of his presidential campaign on Monday night, following a dismal showing in the Iowa caucuses that effectively ended his long-simmering White House ambitions.

O’Malley, who had started laying the groundwork for a presidential bid following his 2010 reelection as governor, was lagging far behind former secretary of state Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. With nearly 70 percent of precincts reporting, O’Malley registered support from only 1 percent of voters…

It’s unclear what O’Malley’s next step will be. He is a lawyer by training, and has served as a visiting professor at the business school at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. O’Malley has said he has no interest in a Cabinet position in another Democratic administration.

Give the man this: He fought valiantly, and is getting out in time to avoid making a fool of himself. He’s young enough to try again in four years, or eight — and, of course, the fact that he “has no interest in a Cabinet position” doesn’t preclude him accepting one next January.

Reader Interactions

311Comments

  2. 2.

    PsiFighter37

    Cruz wins Iowa. I wonder what kind of insults Donald will unleash on the good people of Iowa.

  4. 4.

    The Dangerman

    ABC just did the breaking news thing (over Final Jeopardy, the fuckers) to call it for Cruz.

    I don’t think Trump could beat Hillary…

    …but Cruz could.

    Also, Hillary getting indicted and not dropping out could mean just about anyone could beat her.

  5. 5.

    PeakVT

    Hard to believe there is actual voting going on. I thought this campaign season was going to last forever. Of course, we are still NINE effing months away from the actual election…

  11. 11.

    The Dangerman

    @Roger Moore:

    They’re each about equally likely.

    I dunno; there’s an awful lot of smoke there (and the explanation that there was classification after the fact is seriously weak).

  12. 12.

    PsiFighter37

    Marco is out there sounding like a total tool and empty suit. This dude will do whatever anyone tells him to do without question. He’s a complete idiot.

  13. 13.

    JGabriel

    Carried over from previous thread:

    As we round into the closing stretch of the GOP dog race, Master Debater maintains the lead. Water Boy, in third place, is closing in on Would Sleep W/ Daughter. Doctor Grifter follows distantly, in fourth place, and That Dog Is Not The Federal Government’s Responsibility, Jr. trails behind in fifth place:

    27.7% Master Debater
    24.4% Would Sleep W/ Daughter
    23.0% Water Boy
    9.3% Doctor Grifter
    4.5% That Dog Is Not The Federal Govt’s Responsibility, Jr.

    85% reporting

  17. 17.

    mclaren

    Hillary Clinton will not be the Democratic nominee. Everyone knows Hillary has no chance of winning the general election.

  20. 20.

    PsiFighter37

    Marco telling me that the Founders were fighting for rights endowed to us by God. Shoot me now.

  21. 21.

    The Dangerman

    @Baud:

    Either you give into it or not.

    ….and I thought the initial reports about Bill and an intern were complete bullshit; silly me.

    Self inflicted wounds follow the Clintons around, too, along with the hater stuff.

  23. 23.

    JPL

    @Baud: Many, many years ago, I bailed someone out of jail.. The bail was 10,000 and the charge was someone saw him driving when he didn’t have a license. (GA laws are weird).. Anyway the bondsman, gave good advice. He said, they don’t like you here and you have to move it to the county court. The charges were dropped. I feel the same way about Hillary. The ones in power don’t like her.

  24. 24.

    JGabriel

    @Baud:

    I’m still in it!

    Debates should be a little better now with only two invited candidates speaking.

    Why would it be only two invited candidates? Now that O’Malley is out, shouldn’t you be getting an invite to participate?

  26. 26.

    amk

    earlier comment eated again.

    donald dreck tweet

    This election is a total sham and a travesty. We are not a democracy!

    LOL. what the fuck happened to making murka great again?

  29. 29.

    Baud

    @JGabriel: I should have been there all along. The Establishment wants to keep virtual candidates down. They suffer from a 20th Century mentality.

  32. 32.

    Mai.naem.mobile

    @The Dangerman: I would not be surprised if State is.holding onto the emails to have the howling from the GOP,then finally release them and have them turn out to be a nothingburger. I think O has a good idea of these emails and would have stuck a shiv in HRC if he thought she was going to get indicted. He knows he needs a Dem to follow to cement his achievements.

  33. 33.

    JGabriel

    @amk:

    donald dreck tweet

    This election is a total sham and a travesty. We are not a democracy!

    The autocrat/oligarch is just figuring that out now?

  34. 34.

    debbie

    @The Dangerman:

    In what world could Cruz beat Hillary? He will never win over the GOP establishment and his vision for an evangelical Christian nation will alienate almost everyone else.

  35. 35.

    lgerard

    OT

    It seems that the final four in the French Vanilla Revolution want Franklin Graham to come in and mediate

    I find that hilarious

  36. 36.

    Elizabelle

    Just tuned in to Nice Polite Republicans.

    Heard O’Malley was dropping out; have not heard another word about Democrats.

    Ted Cruz? Iowa, Iowa. May your GOP predictive magic continue.

  37. 37.

    Corner Stone

    This is going to be an awesome next few days. Where alllll the even the liberal media is going to tell us how Rubio’s third place in Iowa is fucking game changing ground shifting holy rollin’ pushin’ strollers proud clinging, guns God, Ghays, and oh yeah, Good For Ya!

  38. 38.

    The Dangerman

    @Baud:

    If you’re paying attention, you know that the lies about them far outnumber any self-inflicted wounds, as it will be with any Democrat.

    No doubt…

    …but self inflicted wounds are there. Having a private server, in and of itself, was a mistake (which I think she has admitted to previously).

  39. 39.

    I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet

    Dick Nixon doesn’t like Rubio’s speech:

    The maid, the bartender, the cook, the baker, the candlestick maker. Stick a boot in his mouth.

    rofl.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  43. 43.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @amk: uh oh… they may find they don’t like trump when he’s angry

    still a long long long way to go, of course

  45. 45.

    Anoniminous

    JEB! – something over $20 million total spent for under 5,000 votes.

    Ha-Ha

    His slide from odds on Front Runner to Who? is The story of the election, so far. In 50 years of politics I’ve never, ever, seen a national candidate blow himself up so thoroughly.

  46. 46.

    Baud

    @The Dangerman: Speeding is a mistake. But if you’re the Dem nominee, speeding represents a reckless disregard for public safety. Disqualified? The media will tell you “yes.” Your choice whether to go along.

  47. 47.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    From 538:

    Harry Enten ‏@ForecasterEnten 3m3 minutes ago

    A number of precincts out in Polk for Clinton (still haven’t reported). She’ll probably win this, but very close.

    12 retweets 9 likes

  48. 48.

    jl

    @Baud:

    ” I’m still in it! ”

    Baud! “We have ’til November to mess this up”! 2016!

    He is in it now just as much as he ever was!

  49. 49.

    lamh36

    Got up late today cause I was off from work…spent the majority of the day at the grocery store and running other errands.

    Then home bout 4pm to cook lunch for the week…totally forgot about the caucuses today.

    Anyhoo, meal #1…is a first time recipe for me… but it came out real good.
    Crawfish Ravioli.    ..made by me!!! Only thing I didn’t make myself was the stuffed ravioli…but give me time ??

    Second meal, much simpler…Shrimp and Okra File nothing special…just a simple craving.

  51. 51.

    Elizabelle

    Did John Kasich get any votes? He’s not even on the NYTimes front page roundup. They have Rand Paul and Ben Carson numbers up …

  54. 54.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    LOS ANGELES -— (Variety) Hillary Clinton to star as Snake Plissken in “Escape From Iowa”

  60. 60.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    ¿Jeb?’s concession speech is really bitter:

    I can handle things, I’m smart! Not like everyone says — like dumb! I’m smart! And I want respect!

  62. 62.

    El Caganer

    Wonder if The Donald can handle losing this one. For all his bluster, he’s got an awfully fragile ego.

  63. 63.

    JGabriel

    Holy shit:

    49.8% Clinton
    49.6% Sanders

    90% Reporting

    Did O’Malley’s supporters all switch to Sanders?

  64. 64.

    Anoniminous

    Will people knock it the $^@#%$! off with the %$^@#$%! emails. Already? It’s a nothing burger, non-story, GOP laced bullshit baloney sandwich drenched in horseshit sauce.

  71. 71.

    jl

    @NotMax:

    ” Rubio giving credit to Jesus Christ was actually offensive. ”

    Rubio came in third. But he is making a concession speech that sounds like a victory speech? Did he credit Jesus Christ for gifting him with his (expected) third place finish or for giving him a lesson in humility in placing below goons like Trump and Cruz?

    In other words, WTF does Rubio think he is doing?

  72. 72.

    Corner Stone

    @El Caganer: His after action speech was actually pretty normal, short and non-news making. IOW, his ego didn’t leap out and start swallowing babies from a roasting spit.

  73. 73.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    I would probably not have voted for him in a primary, only because it was clear from the outset that he didn’t have a prayer of winning the general — but I found O’Malley a very decent and thoughtful man throughout the past few months and in the debates. I hope he is a good surrogate for whomever the nominee is, and maybe gets a good cabinet post next January.

  75. 75.

    Anoniminous

    @JGabriel:

    Polk county is only reporting 82% (CNN figure) and that is the county for the capitol, Des Moines. I’d expect Clinton to do well there what with all the establishment party types living there.

  76. 76.

    Corner Stone

    @jl: Somebody told Rubio that deep pockets were going to be playing his third place as a narrative the media would willingly buy.

  77. 77.

    srv

    I think Bernie’s numbers show a lot of trump supporters feel it’s more important to stop the becrowning than put trump on top for this dinky state.

    There is a logic to that strategy.

  79. 79.

    Mandalay

    @NotMax:

    Rubio giving credit to Jesus Christ was actually offensive.

    Thank you Jesus for letting me come a poor and distant third!

  81. 81.

    Adam L Silverman

    @The Dangerman: Hillary is not getting indicted. There is not even a DOJ investigation into her. There are 22 emails, or parts of 22 emails, that have been classified after the fact as a result of Judicial Watch’s FOIA requests. This has happened recently; they were not classified when she either sent them or received them, nor was the material in them classified at that time. The ongoing leaks, and the breathless and incredulous media coverage, including the punditocracy’s coverage, are being fueled by three things: 1) Secretary Clinton is currently running for President and the GOP side of Capital Hill is deliberately leaking like a sieve and spinning the leaks; 2) there is a turf war between the Intel Community (IC) and the Department of State over who really gets to determine what is and isn’t classified (actually its the President, but the IC doesn’t actually believe that); and 3) this is a preemptive shot across Secretary Clinton’s bow by the IC, and especially its leadership, to put her on notice over who is really in charge should she be elected President.

    That’s it. That’s what’s actually going on. Does any of this mean she’d make a good President? Or a bad one? Not in the least. Its all part of the wasteland of mirrors.

  82. 82.

    jl

    @JGabriel: I heard Sanders say in an interview, or maybe one of the forums, that he just lllluuuuvvves him some of that retail politics and GOTV organizing. Maybe Sanders has assembled a good team that can really turn them out, and he can export his Vermont GOTV operation to other states?

    On the other hand, the polls were very close and volatile, so something like this result is not very unexpected.

  83. 83.

    Cacti

    @srv:

    I think Bernie’s numbers show a lot of trump supporters feel it’s more important to stop the becrowning than put trump on top for this dinky state.

    There is a logic to that strategy.

    Whatever makes you feel better, cupcake.

    Trump’s loss was yuge and classy.

  86. 86.

    NotMax

    @JPL

    Currently, on the R Side (delegates being sent to county conventions):

    Cruz – 8
    Trump – 7
    Rubio – 6
    Carson – 3
    Paul, Bush, Fiorina – 1 each
    3 delegates are designated uncommitted per party rules.

  88. 88.

    Anoniminous

    @Baud:

    A small one. The big uni’s are in Johnson (Univ. of Iowa) and Story (Iowa State) counties. Both of which went for Sanders.

  90. 90.

    Helen

    @Corner Stone:

    Richard Nixon’s twitter feed is awesome. A few examples:

    “I can’t stand to listen to this little bastard”

    “The victory speech is a bad call”

    “I mean it. Rubio talking like this is politically stupid. He had opponents before but now they want to embarrass him. Hurt him.”

  98. 98.

    Davebo

    Does anyone really give a fuck about the Iowa caucuses other than the press and Iowa?

    Hopefully one day a president will tell them to go screw themselves and eliminate the 10% ethanol requirement in gasoline which is idiotic.

  99. 99.

    JGabriel

    @Anoniminous:

    Polk county is only reporting 82% (CNN figure) and that is the county for the capitol, Des Moines. I’d expect Clinton to do well there what with all the establishment party types living there.

    That sounds like a reasonable expectation.

  102. 102.

    Adam L Silverman

    @lgerard: Actually Cliven Bundy sent a registered letter to Harney County Sheriff Dave Ward, Oregon’s governor, and to the President telling them that he is now in charge of the Occupation, that it will continue, that there will be negotiations, and ordering all Federal and state law enforcement out of Harney County.

    There was no indication if he’s going to drag himself off his ranch and up to Oregon where he might be in danger of actually being arrested.

  103. 103.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Helen: that guy does contempt very well. I love it when goes after Christie

    and this

    Richard M. Nixon ‏@ dick_nixon 1h1 hour ago
    I’ve asked for years and still no one will tell me who S.E. Cupp is.

  108. 108.

    jl

    @Adam L Silverman:

    ” Its all part of the wasteland of mirrors. ”

    Is that the Salvador Dali version of the security classification hall of mirrors?

    BTW, the HRC camp claims that one of the public domain items that was classified Top Secret was a NYT article on drones. Been a long time since I had to put up with that stuff, but I’s guess that would a non-classified source corroborating a some classified source that is in same pool of access? Or something like that?

    That item jumped out at me, since I saw it right after a commenter mentioned reports that in the Pentagon Papers affair, whole stacks of material, NYT articles,l everything would get stamped Top Secret.

    Probably should set up a BJ paypal button to pay you to put up with the horror, but maybe a primer on the US security classification system would be useful?

  109. 109.

    Joel

    So, in summary, a [i]de facto[/i] tie for the Democrats and a very narrow victory for Cruz.

    Sounds about right.

  110. 110.

    I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet

    @Adam L Silverman: It would be delicious if he were to believe his own propaganda and wander up there and get arrested so he could join his sons in jail. Especially if nobody was hurt in the process.

    I expect he’ll stay on his ranch though.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  111. 111.

    Steve in the ATL

    @Davebo:

    Does anyone really give a fuck about the Iowa caucuses other than the press and Iowa?

    Hopefully one day a president will tell them to go screw themselves and eliminate the 10% ethanol requirement in gasoline which is idiotic.

    This is my favorite comment.

  112. 112.

    James E Powell

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Hillary is not getting indicted. There is not even a DOJ investigation into her.

    Apparently, you aren’t listening to the right talk radio stations. The FBI is itching to arrest her for a host of evil deeds, but the Kenyan Muslim Socialist is holding them back. It’s all connected with Benghazi, of course.

  113. 113.

    Anoniminous

    @SRW1:

    Agree, but it does go some way to show that money is a necessary part of winning an election it doesn’t necessarily buy an election. Which I find rather comforting.

  114. 114.

    Mandalay

    @Baud:

    Rubio won the billionaire lottery. He should be happy.

    Kind of. Except his sugar daddy (Paul Singer) is a strong supporter of gay rights.

    So the nasty homophobe constantly has to watch his mouth or he’ll kill the goose that lays his golden egg.

  115. 115.

    Adam L Silverman

    @JPL: Depending on the cut, either top to bottom or side to side. Also depends on how sharp the knife is. Can I interest you in an entire rib primal? Its corn fed…

  122. 122.

    lgerard

    @Adam L Silverman:

    That would be nice. Maybe he will drive his herd up there to graze and we can round them all up at the same time.

    It is funny how these nuts never seem to notice that no one pays any attention to all their orders, proclamations and writs despite all the effort they put into cutting and pasting them together.

  123. 123.

    Mandalay

    @Davebo:

    Hopefully one day a president will tell them to go screw themselves and eliminate the 10% ethanol requirement in gasoline which is idiotic.

    TBF that is precisely the position of Ted Cruz. He wants to phase it out by 2022.

  127. 127.

    JGabriel

    @Baud: Yes. O’Malley’s still registering at 0.5% on both TPM and NYT, which is where I’ve been getting my numbers tonight.

  128. 128.

    Davebo

    Planning on doing some briskets and ribs later this week. Slow cooked on a 18,000 lb smoker made from a mud pump! It’s actually a really good smoker but it takes a lot of wood to heat it up. I think I’ll do some dancing chickens as well!

  129. 129.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Omnes Omnibus: Always nice to hit the lingo for those who know it. I’ve got several very good friends and former colleagues/folks I’ve served with at different assignment that are part of the civilian IC. They are good people, they take their jobs seriously, and they endeavor to do good work, and at their current ranks/billets, encourage it among the people working for them. But as an institution, or rather an institution of institutions, the civilian IC is in need of serious and long overdue reform. Military IC has its own problems, some of it contracted from the civilian IC – such as methodological messes and miasmas, but the civilian IC, as an institution of institutions, has become not only a self licking ice cream cone, but a self fulfilling/self perpetuating organization and bureaucracy.

  132. 132.

    Omnes Omnibus

    Welp. I was thinking Clinton 52-Sanders 48 and Rubio with a surprise win. So, I wasn’t really alt that spot on.

  133. 133.

    Anoniminous

    @NotMax:

    Hart did a self-destructo but as I recall he wasn’t the designated candidate of the most powerful political machine and backed by the most powerful money-boys within the Democratic Party.

    I mean it took real major skill of the stumble-buck variety for JEB! to blow it.

  136. 136.

    AxelFoley

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Yes, O’Malley was a TERRIBLE surrogate for President Obama in 2012. I remember him being asked if America was better off in 2012 than it was in 2008 and he couldn’t give an answer. I mean, fuck YES we were better off in 2012 than we were in Bush’s last year in office. We were losing jobs by the shitloads, the automobile industry was on life support, there was no ACA, etc., and this fool couldn’t give an answer.

    I knew he wasn’t ready for prime time right then. And to add to it, his shitty speech at the DNC that summer…well. This is a guy who’s been campaigning in Iowa since 2010 and this was the best he could do? Yeah, everyone knew he’d have to deal with the Clinton juggernaut, but she’s been beaten before (and even now, Bernie’s showing it’s possible again–even thought I hate him and his supporters).

    Bye, Martin. We hardly knew ye.

  137. 137.

    jl

    I guess the big mystery after tonight is what happened to Trump? My guess is some combination of
    goofballs support Trump, and getting them to do something with no immediate gratification is hard
    Trump GOTV organization no good
    People said they supported Trump in polls because it felt good, and they really turned out for someone else.

    I read Trump was holding rallies today, which is an odd thing to do when you should be GOTVing So, maybe Trump will learn himself how this political campaigning works in time for NH?

    I also saw a news story that Trump went to church and got confused, mixed up communion with passing the plate for tithing.

    Trump may be right, he really may have been gifted with the very special and unique mind.

  139. 139.

    Baud

    @jl: Trump has half-assed it through the whole primary and came in a close second in a state that isn’t one of his strongest. Hate to say it, but he should feel pretty good.

  148. 148.

    JGabriel

    @Anoniminous:

    JEB! – something over $20 million total spent for under 5,000 votes

    More than $4000 per vote. Would have been cheaper just to buy everyone a couple 55″ 4K LED Screens for their living rooms and bedrooms.

  150. 150.

    Adam L Silverman

    @jl: Bottom to top: I’ve seen reference to the claim by State that one of the things the IC Inspector General (IG) has now classified was an email with either an excerpt from the NY Times transcribed within it or the article attached to it. I’ve seen different explanations for this one. One was it wasn’t classified at the time the article was written, but that information is now (which is sort of silly as we can’t actually redact the NY Times online archive, nor go and roundup every copy that wasn’t recycled or thrown away). Another is that the article itself contained material that was classified at the time and its reporting constituted a leak. The third is that the material in the article by itself was not classified, but when combined with other material in that specific email, raised the classification for the material in the article and the other material in the email.

    We have this same issue with the material that Snowden leaked. There are plenty of current and former personnel named in what was leaked, but because of either active clearances, or the caveats that come with being read off of access, all of us are forbidden from accessing that material or reading news reports that include it. I had a colleague from State who was mentioned in one of the leaked cables by name. This colleague wasn’t actually involved with anything that the cable dealt with substantively, nor assigned to the country team where the cable originated. This colleague couldn’t actually look up what was being reported because it would be unauthorized access of classified information (need to know…). At the same time the colleague had to reassure several foreign officers, without actually being able to see the reporting, because we were working in a Joint, Interagency, Intergovernmental, and Multinational (JIIM) assignment.

    Wasteland of mirrors refers to the phrase within the IC of getting lost within the raw information. Basically everywhere one looks, all one sees is a reflection or a twisted one looking back. Operatives and analysts lost in the wasteland of mirrors are considered to be conceptually compromised and unable to process information accurately. It is related to the concept of mirroring, which is to ascribe to ones allies, partners, clients, and competitors the same motivations, drivers, beliefs, etc that one’s own society and country has. Both of them are really bad outcomes in different ways.

  151. 151.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @efgoldman: I’m smart! And I want respect!
    If only he could buy it.

    Bar would take it away from him, like the ball when he was six or the car when he was sixteen. Just so he would know she could.

  153. 153.

    JGabriel

    @Corner Stone:

    Steve King looks like he’s been multi-orgasmic behind Cruz for the last 10 minutes.

    That’s really very disturbing.

    I hope Ted Cruz made him use a condom.

  155. 155.

    jl

    @Adam L Silverman: That is my recollection too. Civilian security was truly a hall of mirrors, or more accurately, and ever more rapidly expanding maze of mirrors, and you were right in the middle.

    Maybe, since some of the military intelligence would actually be used by real people to make real decisions in some real planning scenarios, they kept the rules for being able to actually use the information tractable.

    IIRC correctly, the military intelligence was very specialized. And some agencies would have outstanding estimates in some areas, but horrible useless ones in other. But all classified, so it was all very sensitive and if a whisper leaked out, the world would blow up.

    Are there any clearances that are so sensitive the clearance itself is classified? I forget. Some of the names were cosmically cool and only a dimwittedly dull nerd would not want to flash them around.

  156. 156.

    Adam L Silverman

    @jl: I actually wrote one on classification last week and then deleted it. Nothing I wrote was, itself classified, but I wasn’t sure it was appropriate for me to publish it given what I do. Let me think a bit more on this and consult some folks to make sure I’m aware of all the electrified boundaries.

  158. 158.

    Anoniminous

    @Scott Alloway:

    So was I. Something inside of me was crushed in ’68 and I’ve never gotten it back. Worked the precinct for Humphrey – a good man, trapped by circumstances – but nobody’s heart seemed to be in it.

  162. 162.

    Adam L Silverman

    @I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet: I expect that as soon as he actually ever leaves his property, and does so in a way that they can arrest him without starting a shootout, that the FBI will arrest him. I think the real problem with him is he’s basically stayed on his ranch for almost two years, and when he’s gone out he’s not ventured far and he always has a few heavily armed militia types with him. To a certain extent he’s placed himself under house arrest.

  163. 163.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    Ted Cruz: “I am not tired…”

    CNN “We are cutting away to Hillary Clinton.”

  168. 168.

    Adam L Silverman

    @James E Powell: I don’t listen to talk radio. With the exception of Car Talk repeats, even NPR gives me the hives. The only other thing decent on public radio is the weekly opera. And more and more I just listen the music on my iPhone in the car. For long trips its books on audio file.

  169. 169.

    jl

    @Adam L Silverman:

    ” Wasteland of mirrors refers to the phrase within the IC of getting lost within the raw information. ”

    Thanks for info on the lingo. I was never actually in the IC, but worked as a statistician for a contractor doing analysis and also a policy shop. So, I guess I viewed the IC world from its outer edge.

  170. 170.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    @Baud: nobody has called it, other then @DecisionDesk. But 538 says outstanding precincts yet to report favor Hillary. I imagine her statisticians have made same determination

  174. 174.

    Belafon

    I saw it pointed out that, if he wanted, O’Malley still has two days to register to run for the Senate seat.

  175. 175.

    randy khan

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Actually Cliven Bundy sent a registered letter to Harney County Sheriff Dave Ward, Oregon’s governor, and to the President telling them that he is now in charge of the Occupation, that it will continue, that there will be negotiations, and ordering all Federal and state law enforcement out of Harney County.

    Wait! He used the U.S. Postal Service? Doesn’t he know that’s part of the federal government?

  178. 178.

    Elizabelle

    Bernie had a good showing. Proud of him for turning his supporters out.

    I would have been a Hillary voter, but am rooting for Bernie and his ideas too.

    Did Santorum get any votes? How did those in the kiddy table category of votes do?

    Do you think iCarly will drop out soon?

  180. 180.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Davebo: Actually based on the delegate math from Iowa that should be President Ron Paul elected in 2012. Remember there were three different winners last time. Romney based on the announcement on the night of the caucuses, Santorum about two weeks later when everything was actually tallied, and Ron Paul several months later when everyone realized he’d gamed the delegate system. And that’s not even counting the fact that no one can still answer what happened to the returns from eight precincts that went missing and where never found.

  188. 188.

    Elizabelle

    @Baud: No TV in the house these days; was listening on the radio.

    First three words out of Cruz’s mouth: the word “unctuous” came to mind. Oilier than a mackerel or a salmon.

    And I tire of Marco Rubio, who does not even turn up much for his day job, assailing Obama as such a disastrous president.

  191. 191.

    Heliopause

    So I guess tonight’s big takeaway is that the pollsters, including St. Ann of Selzer, got some splainin’ to do.

  199. 199.

    Adam L Silverman

    @jl: I’m eligible to be cleared about as far up as most people can go that aren’t running an Intel agency. By eligible I mean I can be read on if I need to be, but because all I’m doing is consulting work right now I don’t, so I’m not. My understanding, and I went through the read on/ndoctrination just last year as I was read on for part of 2015 and I remember the following from the read on/indoctrination, is that having the clearance and discussing it is not itself classified. All of my business cards and my signature blocks on my unclassified work emails always include my secret and top secret email addresses. As did almost everyone else I know. And the fact that this could be made public is specifically addressed in the read on/indoctrination. I’m sure there’s something so compartmentalized that it can’t be referenced, but that’s way at the spire on top of the pinnacle above the top floor of the highest level clearances commonly awarded. What you can’t do, if I’m recalling correctly, is identify what special access programs you’re read on to. You can recognize that you have a TS/SCI with SAP read on, but not identify what the SAP is.

  200. 200.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Olivia Nuzzi ‏@ Olivianuzzi 14m14 minutes ago
    Crowd at the Sanders party is chanting “YOU ARE A LIAR” at Hillary on TV

  206. 206.

    Bobby Thomson

    @Heliopause: she had one Clinton +2 poll and another Clinton +3 poll, and the final result is likely to be Clinton +1. That’s pretty damn good for a primary poll.

  207. 207.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    @Baud: I wouldn’t go that far. I’m sure polish people are as trustworthy as anyone else.

  209. 209.

    amk

    at the end of months of millions wasted, shouting, yelling and 24×7 hateful rhetoric, the delegate split between top 3 kkklowns is just 8-7-6. jeez.

  210. 210.

    Fair Economist

    I would bet that Bernie actually won the popular vote, based on the likelihood that his voters were more concentrated than Hillary’s. But we’ll probably never know because it’s not tallied.

    Interestingly, although the state delegate equivalents, which is being treated as the popular vote, is tied, Hillary notched up a clear win in delegate (28 to 21 with 3 still out). This inverts the pattern from 2008 where Hillary tended to do worse on delegates than in votes and ended up with a majority of total votes yet a minority of delegates.

  211. 211.

    Adam L Silverman

    @jl: No worries. Its also the name of a really good JAG episode.

    While the funding for my work for the first four or five years I was doing cultural ops for the Army, either on the generating/Professional Military Education (PME) or the operational side, was paid for out of Army Intel funding lines, I’m not a trained intelligence officer. I know what they do, know, by and large, how they do it, but the best way to do the kind of work I do is to utilize open sources – primary, secondary, and tertiary – and to keep the work unclassified for ease of distribution and dissemination as much as possible.

  212. 212.

    Anoniminous

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    That’s often the case. People tend to look at the front runner first and if they decide to support someone else they won’t revisit that decision and move to the next not-Front Runner.

  213. 213.

    Baud

    @Fair Economist:

    The Booman post referenced above says these were the 2008 totals

    Barack Obama: 940 delegates, 37.6% of the total, earned 16 delegates to the convention.
    John Edwards: 744 delegates, 29.7% of the total, earned 14 delegates to the convention.
    Hillary Rodham Clinton: 737 delegates, 29.4% of the total, earned 15 delegates to the convention.

  218. 218.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Fair Economist:

    Hillary notched up a clear win in delegate (28 to 21 with 3 still out). This inverts the pattern from 2008 where Hillary tended to do worse on delegates than in votes and ended up with a majority of total votes yet a minority of delegates.

    This was the Obama method in ’08. Learn the rules. Use them to win.

  219. 219.

    Anoniminous

    @Fair Economist:

    Unless they’ve changed the procedure, the national delegate count is a projection based on the local caucus results. What used to be, and I think still is*, is people tonight selected delegates from their precinct to the county convention, who select delegates to their regional convention, who select delegates to the state convention, who select delegates to the national delegates.

    * and am too damn lazy to look up

  222. 222.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Cheryl Rofer: Must have been very long, because they’re still using the materials from the early 80s and they make it clear that acknowledging it is okay as that is not classified. I got an email from an Army Intel officer last week that included his secret and ts emails in his signature block.

  223. 223.

    jl

    @Adam L Silverman: I very slyly and cleverly worked in references to some of my more obscure clearances in the comments. Maybe they don’t even exist any more, I dunno, it’s been something like twenty years.

    I guess if messed up, you will have to track me down and

  227. 227.

    Bobby Thomson

    @Fair Economist: apparently the 28 she currently has includes 6 of the 8 Iowa super delegates. But she’s pretty close to getting 23 of the 44 elected delegates, and I bet you dollars to doughnuts she lost the raw vote count. I get the sense that her staff know what they are doing this time around.

  229. 229.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    From 538:

    I want to point out that Clinton continues to hold a 0.4 percentage point lead — and which county has the most votes out? It’s still Polk. Sanders hasn’t led statewide this entire night, and the state delegate equivalent percentage difference between the two really hasn’t shifted in a while.

  230. 230.

    Brad

    LOL rich people. They just bet a few hundred million of pocket change on JEB! and he got like 43 votes. It's like reverse powerball for them

  231. 231.

    Tripod

    Uh… that percentage is delegates to the state convention, NOT percentage of voters. The exit numbers had Clinton by 2-3 points, but those preferences got washed through the caucus procedure, and here we are.

    She’s currently +3 on the Iowa delegate count.

  233. 233.

    Adam L Silverman

    @jl: I caught them. As my ASO used to say: “if you’re not living right on the edge, you’re not really living”.

  234. 234.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    The only way Hillary doesn’t win this is if she doesn’t hand it off to Beast Mode on the goal line.

  235. 235.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
    If Sanders can’t get a clear win – even a tiny one – in Iowa, you can kiss him goodbye. I have no animus against him, but he’s trailing badly everywhere else, and needed ‘momentum’ (and lots of it) to change voter opinions. Without Iowa, he doesn’t have even a come-from-behind victory.

  236. 236.

    JGabriel

    For the record, Jim Gilmore’s official vote total, with 98% (1661 of 1682) of precincts reporting, has nearly doubled from the previously reported 7 votes all the way up to 12 votes.

    Second from the bottom is Other, with 117 votes, and third from the bottom is Man on Dog, with 1,777 votes — which is undoubtedly a disappointingly soft performance for Man on Dog given his Iowa win in 2012.

  238. 238.

    NotMax

    @Anonimous

    Yes. On the R side, county conventions in March, district conventions in April, state convention in late May.

    Historically, because delegates to the other conventions are expected to pay their own way, there are no-shows at each step as well.

    @Omnes Omnibus

    Technically, those 3 not out but rather pre-designated as uncommitted by party rules.

  239. 239.

    Eric U.

    when I was a 1st Lieutenant, someone handed me a list of documents about jet engines and said to classify them. A contractor had already given all the documents on the list to a country that was part of the former Soviet bloc. I called some Colonel up and asked him how I was supposed to do it, and he blew up at me so I just marked them all secret and walked away. Nobody ever said anything to me, and the contractor is still doing fine, so I figure that leak didn’t hurt anyone.

  241. 241.

    Corner Stone

    God, why won’t Chuckles Todd stop talking? Or, absent that, why won’t someone shove a package of tube socks down his fucking throat?

  243. 243.

    Anoniminous

    @Frankensteinbeck:

    Polling has Clinton losing NH, winning SC, and with a majority of clear wins on Super Tuesday.

    Practically, I’ll bet she has the nomination virtually sewn-up by the end of March. Sanders is excellent at retail politics, which Iowa and NH favor, but he doesn’t have the political organization needed to run a national campaign and in all 50 states.

  244. 244.

    Keith G

    @Anoniminous: You are correct.

    Delegate totals mentioned tonight are essentially estimates of what the final delegate count is once the state conventions have met and done their things.

  245. 245.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    Vote that hasn’t reported: Des Moines & Cedar Rapids (Hillary strongholds)

  247. 247.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Eric U.: I had a colleague at Temple University – a historian so old that when he started he was actually doing current events. Anyhow, during WW II he was an intel officer in Europe. He used to tell the story that one day he tried to get something out of one of the classified file cabinets that was rarely accessed, but couldn’t get the top drawer open. When he finally got the drawer open he pulled out what had been jamming the file cabinet closed: a German language textbook. That’s right, during WW II we classified the German language and, as far as anyone knows, we’ve never declassified it.

  249. 249.

    NotMax

    @Anonimous

    The difference this year being that the R delegates each step of the way are required to not change their votes on the first ballot, unlike their status when Ron Paul slipped in and took the brass ring.

  251. 251.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    @Anoniminous: Super Tuesday is March 1st. 11 states — 3 in north, 7 in south, 1 in west.

    She wins 9 of 11. Sanders wins Vermont and perhaps Minnesota.

  252. 252.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @Omnes Omnibus:
    He needed both. He needed to be a ‘winner’. He needed results good enough to shake up settled minds, because nationally things have been steady in the ‘Hillary wins by a fat margin’ category. If he loses Iowa, he doesn’t have that. It was his only chance at shaking things up.

    EDIT – Let me be clear, he needed this ‘winner’ reputation just to have an underdog’s chance. Without Iowa and NH both, it’s over.

  253. 253.

    Heliopause

    @Bobby Thomson:

    Mostly talking GOP. Polls were way off on Trump and Rubio. On the Dem side the poll averages were Clinton +3 or 4,which isn’t bad, but some individual polls had big Clinton wins

  254. 254.

    LanceThruster

    @NotMax:

    Irwin Corey was actually quite astute though most people missed that. Saw him dress down a pro-Vietnam war actor on Carson one time where the guy didn’t even know how thoroughly he was being mocked.

  255. 255.

    Anoniminous

    @NotMax & @Keith G: :

    Good. They’ve been doing it that way since the 1840s & I like that way of doing things. It’s a real trip to know what you, as an individual, are doing matters.

  256. 256.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    I don’t think it’ll matter in the long run, but the President is right for the time between NH and SC

    Richard M. Nixon ‏@ dick_nixon 2m2 minutes ago
    The press. The press. It is about the press. Sanders will win New Hampshire, and then the press will do his work for him.

    @Bobby Thomson: I wonder if it could cause some blowback

  259. 259.

    Heliopause

    I’m on the left coast and going to bed. I hope the Dems are still too close to call when I get up in the morn.

  263. 263.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Adam L Silverman: My full discharge came in 1996. Good luck.

    @Frankensteinbeck: He can argue IA and he will win NH. For media purposes he is viable. Electorally, I don’t think he ever had a chance. **For Sanders supporters, I will willingly eat digital crow if I am wrong. If you care about that, bookmark this and remind me later.**

  264. 264.

    Mai.naem.mobile

    Anybody know how many people showed up for the Dems.vs. the Reps. I think I heard the Reps were above 150K probably below 200K.

  266. 266.

    Emerald

    @Frankensteinbeck: Agree. He’s promising a revolution that will sweep the establishment (and the Republicans) out of office. Well, Iowa is one of his best states. Where’s the sweep? If he can’t sweep here, he can’t do it nationally.

    Having said that, however, give the guy credit for apparently achieving a tie. That is a better than expected outcome for him and it’s got to make the Clinton camp step up their game. Plus, lots of very nice people love Sanders (my sis is one). They’re not all Bros. I’m happy to see them get some joy out of this, as I’m sure they will.

  267. 267.

    Bobby Thomson

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: the press won’t report on it because it doesn’t fit the narrative. Sanders won’t push it because it makes his people look like losers and assholes. Clinton won’t push it because it’s people calling her a liar. It will be bulletin board material below the radar for a few months and then people will gradually forget it ever happened.

  271. 271.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @Omnes Omnibus:
    The media thought Romney was going to win. People heard he was zooming up and going to take Iowa and New Hampshire. There was going to be a revolution. If he doesn’t get Iowa, that bubble pops, and it was all he had. He probably never did have a chance, but the only argument you could have made for him included winning both IA and NH.

    EDIT – @Emerald:

    Plus, lots of very nice people love Sanders (my sis is one). They’re not all Bros. I’m happy to see them get some joy out of this, as I’m sure they will.

    I agree. I think he picked up the obnoxious Naderites and the ratfuckers, and they are obnoxious as Hell, but they are NOT representative of his voters and it’s embarrassing and annoying that they pretend to be.

  272. 272.

    Anoniminous

    Trump’s 44,837 second place votes would have been a total wipe-out in 2014, Santorum and Romney got ~29,000 apiece. There has been 184,318 total votes so far on the GOP side. That is ~60,000 more than in 2014.

    Something to keep an eye on. If the GOP are fired-up this election could be more of a struggle than I anticipated.

  273. 273.

    WarMunchkin

    Well, this has been a fantastic night for Democrats. I like seeing two decent-in-their-own-ways and flawed-in-their-own-ways people basically be honored by our electorate.

  276. 276.

    JGabriel

    @Mai.naem.mobile:

    Anybody know how many people showed up for the Dems.vs. the Reps. I think I heard the Reps were above 150K probably below 200K.

    I don’t know the numbers, but I suspect the Republic party had a higher turnout this time around than the Dems. NYT is speculating that a much larger number of voters than anticipated showed up to vote against Trump.

  278. 278.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    @JGabriel: Theres going to be a yuuuuuuuuuuuge anti-Trump vote in November, especially by latinos, mooslims, & blacks

  280. 280.

    NotMax

    The real loser tonight?

    Gov. Terry “Vote for anyone except Cruz” Branstad, whose political clout and acumen took a beating.

  283. 283.

    Redshift

    @Emerald: Both Clinton and Sanders have better than 80% approval among Democrats, so, yeah, a lot of people who are not assholes like him.

    I understand that elections are about drawing contrasts, but I hope supporters of both campaigns figure out that in an electorate where most of the people you’re trying to appeal to like your opponent (even if they’re not committed to either candidate), trying to paint him/her as the Antichrist is probably not going to be effective.

  284. 284.

    Keith G

    @Frankensteinbeck:

    and the status quo is ‘He’s doomed.

    No matter the outcome of tonight, Sanders has done his job and done it amazingly well. In the end, President-elect Clinton will need to write him a glowing thank you letter.

    Last Autumn, the story was that the Democratic race might be so boring that participation could suffer. The race that Bernie has been running put the lie to that. Assuming things play out as it appear they will, Sanders will hand off to Clinton a sizable collection of energized voters – a number of whom HRC may not have been able to energize on her own. Of course it is up to her to keep them active and get them integrated.

    Jennifer Jacobs (Chief politics reporter at The Des Moines Register) is among the reporters I have read who say that most Sanders supporters they have asked would move on to support Hillary should their candidate not be successful.

  285. 285.

    Anoniminous

    @Frankensteinbeck:

    and why the pointless name calling & bickering & gratuitous insults piss me off. Work and be dedicated and fight for your candidate – absolutely – but at the end of the day we HAVE GOT to come together to kick elephant ass.

  287. 287.

    Ruckus

    @Adam L Silverman:
    Now it’s been over 4 decades but I had a TS/need to know in the navy. No one ever said I couldn’t tell anyone that. Was told that I couldn’t disclose anything that fell under any classification to anyone that wasn’t classified that level or higher and if they were need to know, I wouldn’t be the one to make that determination.

  290. 290.

    seaboogie

    @Adam L Silverman: You are one of my “elevator” people – the ones I wouldn’t mind being stuck in an elevator with.

    I imagine that the conversation would be quite interesting for quite a long while, before it would just go over my head, and I would be all “Dude, do you think you could get us out of here?” And you’d be all “Yeah, sure…” and MacGuyver it with martial arts moves and a pocket knife you were carrying.

  291. 291.

    Matt McIrvin

    Betting markets (which, as we all know, are measures of conventional wisdom more than anything else) seem to have flipped massively to predicting that Marco Rubio will get the nomination on the basis of tonight’s results. A strong third place is apparently enough.

  292. 292.

    FlipYrWhig

    @Matt McIrvin: His speech was obviously a victory speech, and he almost as obviously was getting wicked dry mouth but knew he couldn’t reach for water and it was driving him crazy.

  295. 295.

    Arclite

    and, of course, the fact that he “has no interest in a Cabinet position” doesn’t preclude him accepting one next January.

    Or a VP slot in May.

  296. 296.

    Corner Stone

    @seaboogie: Who the hell picks lists of people they would not mind being stuck in an elevator with? That sounds like the absolute worst venue to be jammed into with a stranger or semi-stranger.
    Is one of your other lists including people who you desire to be in a phone booth or rolled up rug with?

  298. 298.

    Kropadope

    @Corner Stone: I would say he seems like the logical choice for either candidate. He’s from a different region of the country with a different background in office and much younger than either Sanders or Clinton.

  299. 299.

    Adam L Silverman

    @NotMax: As much as I don’t want to work in the Pentagon, that’s one office I’d love to get a billet in. I’ve never actually seen them advertise a position though…

  300. 300.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Ruckus: Yep, that’s how its always been explained to me. So we’re either going to be cell mates together at Leavenworth or we’re in the clear.

  303. 303.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Juju: I’m a tic tac and those soft peppermint/candy cane mints kind of guy. If I’ve got my briefcase, then yes I’d have floss.

  307. 307.

    seaboogie

    @Corner Stone:

    Who the hell picks lists of people they would not mind being stuck in an elevator with?

    Someone who has been stuck in an elevator with someone. Happily for me, it was a really cool crusty old woman from my apartment building, and I had just gone to the bathroom before I got on, so I was able to be chill about the whole experience. It’s not exactly like lightning striking – it really could happen. For me, it did.

  309. 309.

    sukabi

    @The Dangerman: if you thought that you weren’t paying attention AT ALL. By the time it was Monica’s turn at bat there had already been several verified dalliances. I wasn’t paying attention to politics then, but you couldn’t avoid the press reports.

  310. 310.

    henqiguai

    @seaboogie (#297):

    …and MacGuyver it with martial arts moves and a pocket knife you were carrying.

    No, aikido doesn’t work against elevator machinery; a recalcitrant and bullying elevator *operator*, on the other hand….

  311. 311.

    mclaren

    Give the man this: He fought valiantly, and is getting out in time to avoid making a fool of himself. He’s young enough to try again in four years, or eight — and, of course, the fact that he “has no interest in a Cabinet position” doesn’t preclude him accepting one next January.

    Nope, knowing Hillary, she’ll be doing the old Bill Clinton/Barack Obama triangulation bullshit, so she’ll jam her cabinet chock full of hard core movement conservatives to show how “balanced” she is. As her policies drift farther and farther right until they become indistinguishable with Dubya’s, the Beltway press will praise her for her “balance” and “fairness.” Meanwhile, the middle class will collapse until cities burn with massive riots and endless unwinnable foreign wars will trash our economy and crush us with an uncontrollable deficit to the point where Americans beg for a military coup to fix the mess.

    Good times.

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