Another reason why whoever is declared the “winner” of tonight’s Democratic caucuses is as much a matter of spin as anything else: Iowa doesn’t report votes, but instead something called “state delegate equivalents.” It’s possible that more people caucused for Sanders tonight but that Clinton will win more state delegate equivalents because her vote was distributed more evenly. Then again, Clinton did lead in the Iowa entrance polls. Without an actual vote count from Iowa, we’ll never know.
I could not get excited about Iowa tonight. Could be because my facebook feed is full of so much Sanders fanaticism, I’ve grown weary of the whole thing by now. Yes, Virginia, there is such a thing as too much rah-rah. And the media coverage treats Iowa like it’s the BIG THING, when history has proven otherwise.
Anyway, here is a shiny new thread to talk about it all. I just finished shoveling 12″ of snow and am off to bed. Cheers!
UPDATE: I guess Carly went to bed before I did:
@CarlyFiorina no show at her party as @BernieSanders on the tv @WHOhd #iacaucus pic.twitter.com/hmi6wZK4Pw
— Roger Riley (@rogerriley) February 2, 2016
Mnemosyne
I was happy to see that Sanders did at least have enough of a ground game to make it a tie, but other than that, don’t really care. I know the Sandernistas find it impossible to believe, but I honestly don’t care one way or the other. I think either one of them could win the general.
Juju
It was 73 here today in eastern NC. It might snow Friday, but nothing I’d have to shovel. My back is in sympathy for you.
Omnes Omnibus
In 2008. the Obama looked at the delegate rules and determined how to get them. Given tonight’s apparent result, Clinton has chosen the same strategy. She should win tonight’s delegate count.
Keith G
It’s the primary process, Jake.
I think that it is fortunate that a way was found to get (apparently) a large number of energized new folks into the process. When the Sanders campaign powers down, most of them will move towards the Clinton campaign and hopefully Hillary can wrangle them into her campaign and get them involved.
There is much political conflict on the path ahead (post Labor Day and beyond) and addition will be a much more needed skill than division.
Kropadope
@Omnes Omnibus: Well it was effective and she has most of the people who administered the plan. Nonetheless, last I checked they were only separated by 3 delegates.
TaMara (BHF)
@Mnemosyne: And either one is light years better than anything on the other side. That’s why I want us to remain civil until a decision is reached. Unified in supporting anyone but the crazy across the aisle.
NotMax
Was waiting for the political hoo-ha to die down some in order to mention this.
It’s been several years since TCM brought it out of the vaults and who knows when it will come around again.
Thursday, February 4, 8:00 a.m. – The Green Goddess. For old movie/early talkie buffs. Stilted, dated, and hokey as can be. But every scene he shows up for, one cannot tear one’s eyes from George Arliss’ Oscar-nominated role. He brings an easy theatricality honed from decades on the stage, a style which was considered old-fashioned then but is more than Strasbergian in its modernity to today’s eyes. Too, his get-up later on in the fim (skirting a fuller spoiler here) is a fashion statement to da max.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Gop side: only 1 of 6 winners of Iowa have become president and that was Shrub who lost the popular vote and needed the supreme court to steal Florida.
Mary G
I am just tickled by how badly Jeb$ did. Rod Dreher said that the Bush family political dynasty died tonight on the Midwestern plains. Makes me feel a little better about the people in this country not all being idiots.
Mnemosyne
@NotMax:
You know what wildly successful stage role Arliss made into an early sound film?
Hey, I’ve barely mentioned it all day — I was saving it until you stopped by.
;-)
Omnes Omnibus
@Kropadope: Aside from your suggestion that it was rigged, Clinton is likely to come out of the caucus with more votes than Sanders.
Frankensteinbeck
@Kropadope:
Yes, but they’re delegates Sanders desperately needed. How does he win now? There’s no longer any reason to believe that Hillary’s big lead nationwide will change. Sanders wins NH, loses SC and Super Tuesday, and after that it’s a route. This was his shot at proving otherwise. So… Now what?
Splitting Image
The best result of the night is the end of Mike Huckabee’s political career. He can go back to helping his friends Josh Duggar and Justin Harris, and calling Caitlyn Jenner a danger to children.
Now then. About Rick Santorum….
NotMax
@Mnemosyne
Disraeli.
Omnes Omnibus
@Frankensteinbeck: No, damn it. A three delegate loss is a win.
Anoniminous
@Keith G:
That is excellent news. Under 30 turnout dropped 6% in 2012 from 2008. Need to get them folks back in the game.
JGabriel
TaMara @ Top:
I never get excited about the Iowa caucuses per se, but I always look forward to opening the election season here at Balloon-Juice with incessant mocking of the GOP caucus.
gwangung
@TaMara (BHF): Fuck, yes. To the nth degree.
Keith G
@Frankensteinbeck:
Sanders keeps doing what he is doing, helping the Democratic Party by forcefully addressing issues that have traditionally been in the Democratic wheel house for decades. He still has an important, helping role to play.
gwangung
@Anoniminous: Eh. Not sure that’s going to happen. They’re keyed into Sanders, and when he gets knocked out early (Not winning Iowa decisively almost guarantees that), they’ll lose interest and drift away.
Latino voters on the other hand, if Trump gets nominated…
Omnes Omnibus
@Keith G: Has anyone called for him to retire from the field?
TaMara (BHF)
@Mary G: I just updated the post with a photo of Carly NOT showing up for her
victoryparty. LOL. Grinding her and Bush under the heels of defeat definitely highlights of the evening.Kropadope
@Omnes Omnibus: How on Earth did I suggest it was rigged? Are you feeling OK?
trollhattan
@Keith G:
Hopefully getting youngins registered and involved, because whoever the Republicans run will be emptying mental asylums, gun clubs and Walmarts to get the vote out.
Frankensteinbeck
@Keith G:
I’m good with that, but I was referring to paths to victory. He doesn’t have any now.
@Kropadope: and @Omnes Omnibus:
I really did not read any nastiness there, Omnes. Kropadope has been pretty polite that I’ve seen.
Kropadope
@Frankensteinbeck:
Why not? He’s been pretty steadily chipping away at it and this virtual tie makes him look a competitive candidate. More people in more places are going to be paying more attention to the race soon as well. A lot of people didn’t take Obama seriously until he won Iowa. Bernie could still come out ahead here. Plus, I’m pretty confident he will have a lead in elected delegates once NH has voted.
hitchhiker
right now the D message to under-25s ought to be this:
If you don’t vote in Nov 2018, what happens in the next few months becomes meaningless. If your candidate wins next fall, GREAT. Make it mean something by voting in the midterms.
Keith G
@gwangung: There is reporting from various sources, one being Jennifer Jacobs (The Des Moines Register), who say that when asked most Sanders supporters they would support HRC should it come to that – as it will.
But, as I said above, a lot of that depends on the choices made by the Clinton campaign to facilitate the building of new connections.
Micheline
I am pissed that Rubio did very well in Iowa. He might have a real shot in winning the nomination. Given the mess that we see with the Democrats, he might also have a chance in winning the general.
gwangung
@Kropadope: In a state that plays almost entirely to his strengths? And all he could manage was a tie?
Still not connecting to minorities. And we’re going to states where Clinton has a lot of strength.
Jacel
So are there any reports on how many people participated statewide in the Democratic party’s caucuses? I’d be interested in hearing how many people were motivated to come compared to 2008, or compared to the Republican participation this year (under 200K).
Keith G
@Omnes Omnibus: Not that I know of. I think he is more useful as an active candidate, at least until NC.
Frankensteinbeck
@Kropadope:
I just checked. He got one big bump (the graph didn’t have a date) and otherwise it’s been steady, maybe slowly moving Clintonward. He’s not chipping away. A tie or close second in the state he was hyped to win and was one of his best chances makes him look less viable.
hitchhiker
@Kropadope:
Obama was within 5 pts nationally at the time of the IA caucus. Where is Sanders now? Shortly after IA, Obama won SC by a lot. Is Sanders going to do that? Is Sanders going to become heir to the AA vote, as Obama did?
This isn’t 2008.
Obama beat both Hillary and John Edwards by 8 points. Sanders just lost to Hillary by a fraction of a point. He’s not Obama. If he can build a national case for the policies we all love that carries him into office with the senate and a D majority in the house, he will have surpassed Barack Obama. Does anybody think that’s what happens next?
gwangung
@Keith G: Support? As in volunteering? Or even being sure to vote? Or just to agree with her stand on issues?
Though, to be sure, you are correct in saying it depends on Clinton’s handling of them; there has to be some extra special outreach to them.
Anoniminous
@gwangung:
That, in part, will depend on Sanders but more on Clinton. I can see it going either way.
Mnemosyne
@NotMax:
Now you’re just being stubborn.
Kropadope
@gwangung: He did come from an approximate light-year behind, however, and was up against probably the most powerful electoral organization in the U.S. There’s a lot of states to go and he’s secured his viability up until at least Super Tuesday.
Tripod
Hillary has racked up enough super delegates to give her an insurmountable lead. Obama played (plays) that game very well, and was able to pull them over in 2008. Bernie’s too cool for the party shtick zeroed him out before he even started.
Frankensteinbeck
@Micheline:
What mess? A few screaming loons online? If those meant anything, we’d have been toast in 2012. It’s been a very orderly, issues-centered primary. I’m pleased.
Anoniminous
@Mnemosyne:
Speaking of Hamilton, did you know there is a Broadway musical about him? I hear it is doing OK.
FlipYrWhig
What was the source of the “Clinton declaring victory” thing? It was all MSNBC could talk about. I started to suspect that Andrea Mitchell had over-interpreted some campaign flack saying “We think we pulled it out” and just went off to the races with it. Was it reported in any more widespread a way than via Mitchell?
Kropadope
@Frankensteinbeck:
I wouldn’t exactly say hyped to win . He had been behind in nearly all the polls of Iowa.
He wasn’t hyped to win Iowa, he needed a tie or better to sustain his viability. This result was just enough to help him stay a somewhat viable candidate.
? Martin
Credit to Sanders – I did not see him winning in Iowa. Best I can tell, he won by following Obama’s playbook. We’ll see if he can keep it up.
I like him but I need to see policies that are a bit more realistic. Free college? Someone explain to me how that works, how we meet that demand, how we get students in the kinds of professions that the nation needs. A proposal out of UC made a lot more sense as a national policy – US citizens/permanent residents would pay a fraction of their gross income back to the university they graduated from over 20 years or something, collected by the IRS. Say 5%, or something like that. Students still have skin in the game, but you now give universities a serious incentive to actually help students get into good disciplines, get placed, supported, and so on.
It would also blunt a little bit of the role of sports in higher ed as it mainly serves as a way to do this very thing out of your alumni.
Kropadope
@FlipYrWhig: CNN was doing the same thing. They decided that’s what she was going to do before she even got up to speak and, like good MSM tools, would not let the narrative drop when she the podium and did no such thing.
FlipYrWhig
@Tripod: I really wish Sanders would stop saying that everyone else is corrupt, bought and paid for, etc. Even if he believes it it seems like the kind of thing that makes people sour on the government and Democrats’ ability to make the government work.
mdblanche
Reposted from below: the Iowa caucus process explained.
amk
tundra twit toast today. dreck might demand his money back.
NotMax
@Mnemosyne
Heh. Just goofin’ with you.
;)
FlipYrWhig
@Kropadope: On MSNBC it was the talk of the studio even before the night’s speeches. Andrea Mitchell reported that the Clinton campaign was declaring victory, and they all sneered and harrumphed about how it’s not up to the campaign to do that, how risky it was, and so forth. I just wonder what the actual statement was. I have a hunch it was the usual confident campaign boilerplate. Maybe I’m wrong and it was something Team Hillary actually did.
FlipYrWhig
@amk: oh yeah, I forgot all about that! HA ha #MuntzLaugh
mike in dc
2 state delegate equivalent gap. 99% in. That’s basically a difference of 0.1%. I think we can call this a statistical tie.
NotMax
@FlipYrWig
Andrea Mitchell: Strong in that one the Kool-Aid is.
beltane
After Obama won the nomination in 2008 it was pretty much guaranteed that barring unforeseen circumstances, Hillary would be the next in line for the Democratic nomination. Because of this, I really haven’t been following the campaigns very closely and have yet to watch a debate. I’m always a dependable vote for any Democrat on a general election ballot so I’ve given myself permission to tune out politics in general and just show up to vote on election day.
FlipYrWhig
@NotMax: I know, that’s why I’m suspicious.
Kropadope
@FlipYrWhig:
What are “reasons no one should ever watch televised news,” Alex? I’ll take “Well, Duh” for 400.
@mike in dc: I wonder what O’Malley’s delegates will do when he ultimately releases them.
FlipYrWhig
G’night, John-boys and John-girls and John-persons!
Mnemosyne
@Anoniminous:
Whaaaa? Why the heck would someone make a musical about the Founding Fathers when we already have “1776”?
amk
ironic both the immigrants trumped trump, the ‘native born murkan’.
Redshift
@gwangung:
I think that will depend a lot on Sanders. The Dean campaign also people who were keyed into Dean more than to the general Democratic Party. Yet many Dean partisans went on to be very active in the Kerry campaign and local Democratic organizations (and still are), in large part because Howard Dean, when he ended the campaign, told us to go get involved.
Sanders can do the same if he chooses. The purity ponies may not come along, but most everyone else would, I think.
Mnemosyne
@NotMax:
Believe it or not, despite my efforts there are still some people who haven’t heard of it. We had dinner with G’s aunt the other night and got to blow her mind telling her about this new hip-hop musical. It still sounds like a bad “SNL” sketch when you first give the bare bones.
Sadly, though, I have to head off to sleep because I’m pretty sure I’m fighting off the nasty cold that’s going around my office. It will be a miracle if I avoid it, because the two people I work most closely with have both succumbed to it.
Oldgold
By my rough math, it looks like Jeb! spent approximately $3,000 per vote in Iowa.
amk
@mike in dc:
optics wise, it’ is a big day for sanders and sanderistas. both did well today.
Micheline
@Frankensteinbeck: Please go read what John Judis’s post at TPM.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/initial-reflections-a-better-night-for-republicans
Cacti
@Tripod:
The above is accurate.
The candidates didn’t start Iowa at 0-0-0. With Superdelegate counts, they started Clinton 384, Sanders 29, O’Malley 2.
Based on tonight’s preliminary results, it’s now Clinton 406, Sanders 50, O’Malley 2. In the race to 2,382 delegates needed for the nomination, Clinton has 17% of the needed total vs. 2.1% for Sanders.
Kropadope
@Cacti: Superdelegates aren’t committed and would be almost certain to reconsider if someone other than their original choice became a decisive leader in elected delegates.
Adam L Silverman
@NotMax: Someone made a movie about a 1970s salad dressing?
TheMightyTrowel
@Redshift: One of my younger cousins was a hard core Obama girl in 2007/8. It was her first election. she was primed. she was ‘maybe not gonna vote’ then fell in love with Obama. In 2009 she joined the MA young democrats. Then she changed her major to politics. then she decided to double major in politics and women’s studies. Then she started working for elizabeth warren. Right now she’s a hardcore Clinton fan. It’s been pretty fun to watch.
I always think of her when I hear people say ‘the youngs will pack their toys and go home’. some might, sure, but some will find their voice and be the next generation of the party like my cousin.
goblue72
@FlipYrWhig: The vast majority of Congresscritters ARE bought and paid for. That’s just reality. There’s nothing wrong with pointing this out. There’s a reason a majority of Americans are fed up with Congress and BOTH political parties.
Cacti
@Kropadope:
Unless Sanders starts to move the needle with minority voters in a way he hasn’t been able to thus far, I don’t see a scenario where this happens.
NotMax
@Adam L. Silverman
:)
Prescience is a virtue.
mclaren
“Forget it, Jeb, it’s Chinatown.”
jl
@Redshift:
” I think that will depend a lot on Sanders. ”
Sanders has said several times that he intends to take his campaign to the convention. So, unless his campaign implodes into humiliating defeats, I think he will do just that. He has said that waging his political revolution is as important as his nomination,so he clearly thinks of the two as separate goals Apparently if he cannot get the nomination, he intends to use support for his candidacy to recruit support for his revolution.
And he has two more years in the Senate. He has an incentive to try to go back to work with a Democratic majority if he is not the nominee. in that case, he will figure out how to increase turnout with his primary candidacy.
If HRC runs against Rubio or (won’t happen, thank God) Kasich, we will need as much help as we can get from turnout. Sanders heading a political movement through the general election would help with that.
I hope those kinds of thought will be going through Sanders’ head if he doesn’t get the nomination.
Edit: the unfortunate, perhaps disastrous, alternative is that Sanders is really just a stubborn old coot and he sits around grousing and griping about shit if he can’t win. I guess we will find out what kind of guy this Sanders is, before the primaries are over.
Cacti
Did anyone else notice that Ted Cruz won Iowa with…
27.7% of the vote?
Kropadope
@Cacti:
While that’s true , he’s already in a much less dismal place than he had been previously with minority demographics. Most black people weren’t planning on voting for Obama until he won Iowa. Sanders did well today, so I expect more people to start giving him a first/second look. Nothing’s official until the votes come in.
Keith G
@Kropadope: Yeah, folks are forgetting that there was a Dem candidate in 2007 who lost super-delegate support as the campaign proceeded into 2008.
Who was that?
That said, lightning may strike twice, but I not sure one should bet the homestead on that happening.
mclaren
@Mnemosyne:
Against any of the fringe lunatics the Republicans are likely to nominate, a dead gopher would win the general. Seriously. We’re talking (a) a guy who thinks the Egyptian pyramids were granaries and who proposes bombing Mexican immigrants with cruise missiles, (b) a crank with a opossum on his head who wants to lower the minimum wage and claims Mexicans are rapists and drug dealers, (c) a “Canadian anchor baby” (according to Trump), (d) a guy whose best family pal was a major drug dealer and who may or may not have financed his early political campaigns with cocaine money, (e) who am I forgetting? An ape running around in the Rue Morgue kidnapping women? A mummy awakened by an ancient curse seeking out the reincarnation of his lost queen? A giant blob of protoplasm that eats people alive and grows without limit?
Kropadope
@Keith G: Oh, I’m not betting on it to happen. But if it were to happen, tonight has been a good start.
charon
@Kropadope:
Iowa is unusually favorable to Bernie, but the best he could do is a tie. He is not on track for any kind of pledged delegate majority, let alone a decisive lead of the elected delegates.
Bobby Thomson
@Micheline: Judis reminds me of the people who said Obama was dooooooomed in the 2008 general election because Clinton was consistently beating him with working class white voters. yeah, the media will fluff Rubio, but they always were going to do that, and I just can’t see Mr. Amnesty winning the nomination when most of his party is against him.
mclaren
@charon:
Hillary is not on track for any kind of pledged majority of delegates, as everyone realizes. The best she could do is make a brave showing and get a cabinet spot. Hillary Clinton will not be the Democratic nominee.
David *Rafael* Koch
BWHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHHA
Tuesday’s Front Page: Dead Clown Walking
jl
@mclaren:
” who am I forgetting? An ape running around in the Rue Morgue kidnapping women? A mummy awakened by an ancient curse seeking out the reincarnation of his lost queen? A giant blob of protoplasm that eats people alive and grows without limit? ”
Well, Ol’ Huck dropped out tonight.
But, nice that you remembered Christie.
And the cast is even freakier when you get down to the kiddie table debate.
AxelFoley
@Kropadope:
Sanders keeps talking shit about Obama and has people like Cornel West on his team. I can guarantee you, he won’t get the black vote.
Kropadope
@charon:
How so? Several people have already pointed out that caucus rules combined with the distribution of votes were a distinct disadvantage for Bernie in Iowa. They don’t report raw voter numbers and since Bernie’s voters were concentrated into fewer districts, his delegate count may not reflect how many people actually voted for him.
Cacti
@Kropadope:
It’s not impossible of course, but I think it’s going to be rather more difficult for Bernie to catch fire with black voters than it was for Obama for fairly obvious reasons.
As for Hispanic voters, I’d rate that one as tougher still, because Clinton won them handily in 2008, and didn’t do anything back then for which she’d need to mend fences with Hispanic voters in 2016.
Kropadope
@AxelFoley:
So, two things. You’re way overstating that, A, and B, am I to assume Bernie is not allowed any disagreements with Obama?
Cacti
@AxelFoley:
I’d guess that from the end of the NH primary through Super Tuesday, Bernie’s call to primary Obama in 2012, his friendship with Cornel West, and his endorsement of Bill Press’s book are going to get a lot more air time.
amk
wonder about the reax of muturtle, mcangry tonight.
David *Rafael* Koch
BWHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA (via Trix)
➡️ Loser.com redirects to Trump’s Wikipedia page.
Darkrose
@Mnemosyne: Feel better!
I’m trying to come up with a good Hamilton line for my next blog post. The problem is that I’m tired and a little hopped up on migraine meds, so I keep coming back to “I’m a general! Wheeee!”
Kropadope
@Cacti: Yet he didn’t primary Obama and, in fact, campaigned for his reelection. I don’t think he ever really wanted a competitive primary against Obama, he explained it at the time as thinking Obama needed a good push to the left.
Cacti
@Kropadope:
I’d say Axel’s pretty well acquainted with the general mood among African American Dems.
And considering Obama’s approval rating with black voters has never been lower than 84%, I’d say Bernie ought to tread carefully.
Making the fellow who called the POTUS a “Republican in blackface” as his minority outreach point man doesn’t strike me as treading carefully.
NR
@gwangung:
You guys were predicting a decisive win for Hillary tonight, so excuse me if your analysis doesn’t really carry much weight right now.
NR
@Tripod: If Sanders wins the pledged delegate majority and the superdelegates overturn that result and give the nomination to Hillary, it will tear the Democratic party apart and hand the White House to the Republicans on a silver platter. Hopefully they won’t be stupid enough to do that…. But we are talking about Democratic politicians here, so who knows.
David *Rafael* Koch
@NR: nonsense. For the last six months I’ve been predicting a Sanders victory – ever since he took the lead in NH in August.
That he lost tonight is stunning upset.
#YasQueen
Kropadope
@David *Rafael* Koch: He barely lost and may actually wind up with more delegates, depending on how O’Malley’s delegates decide to reallocate themselves.
And “stunning,” for real?
Darkrose
@Cacti: It also doesn’t help that the frequent response of Sanders supporters when someone brings up their candidate’s occasionally tin-eared response to issues of race and gender, the immediate reaction is to scream “What about Hilary?!?!” and then to condescend mightily.
In the mid-aughts, I spend way too much time arguing with allegedly progressive straight white men who wanted to convince me that class, not race, was the real issue, and that once economic inequality was solved, racism, sexism, and homophobia would magically vanish because reasons. This primary season feels very similar.
charon
@Kropadope:
Bernie’s strength is white people and liberals. Democrats in Iowa are more liberal than most states not named Vermont or Oregon or Massachusetts, and are mostly white.
So, not doing better than a tie in Iowa is a bad sign for Bernie.
gwangung
@Kropadope:
Not gonna be black folks, not with Cornel West as outreach to the black community. And you NEED black votes to win the Democratic nomination AND the presidency.
@NR:
WHo you calling “we” bub? More wishful thinking and selective hearing, I think.
Kropadope
@charon: Yeah, and the primary race is completely static, so that has no chance of changing.
Amir Khalid
So the breakdown of Republican candidates is now:
The DSEs have been dropping out because they had serious performance goals they realised they weren’t going to meet. Only five DSEs left, and of those only one candidacy is not actually moribund yet. People doing better than Jeb in this cycle have quit, but I have a sneaking suspicion that someone’s pride (not necessarily his own) will keep him in this — officially, at least — for what will seem to him a painful and needlessly prolonged duration.
The Democratic race:
Officially down to a two-horse race, and after only one primary-season event.
bin Lurkin'
Hillary and Bill seem overjoyed at their glorious victory…
Or not..
NR
@David *Rafael* Koch: Do you get dizzy when you spin like that?
Cacti
@Darkrose:
It’s not especially surprising that the dominant social group would latch onto to a theory that relieves said group of primary responsibility for structural and institutional inequality. But class reductionist arguments are the same load of bollocks they’ve always been.
That Sanders thinks Cornel West is going to win him a lot of black voters in the Obama era, shows how out to lunch he is on majority sentiment in the black community. I’m surprised he hasn’t enlisted Tavis Smiley as another surrogate. ;-)
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@NR: your tears of unfathomable sadness are delicious. Yum! Yum! Yum!
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@David *Rafael* Koch: Hillary lost 70% of the vote in 2008. This state was tailor made for Sanders (43% of caucus goers openly identify as Socialists).
He led CNN’s Iowa poll by 8 points just 11 days ago.
Darkrose
@Kropadope:
There was a very specific reason for that, though: a lot of us simply didn’t believe the black guy with the funny name could attract enough white voters to actually win.
And while everyone was focusing on Iowa, Hillary took time out last week to meet with nearly 50 black ministers in Philadelphia. So far, Bernie’s main black campaign surrogate has been the guy who said in June that “Obama has become the first “niggerized president””. That’s really not going to win black voters over.
shortribs
@charon: Agree. Bernie needed to squeak out an actual win because mild momentum now (I think NH will be a wash for both candidates) is lost come SC and NV both of which he needs. That said, it might be enough for him to stick around through the end of super tuesday which is good, maybe he’ll get enough delegates that Clinton will have to give him some say when Dems put their general election platform together. I do want Hillary to win but I’m hoping Bernie stays in just long enough to influence the direction she takes in her presidency and if he can stay on message (which he’s lost sight of lately in my view) he’ll get all those young folk to get and stay involved in politics which is the real reason for his running.
Cacti
On the topic of the GOPers, as fun as it is to poke fun at Trump’s second place finish…
Considering that his entire campaign began from the ground up within the last year, his second place finish suggests to me that he has the ear of a substantial portion of the GOPer electorate.
Kropadope
@Darkrose: I don’t think most voters are paying a whole lot of attention to what Cornel West may have said a couple years ago as opposed to what Bernie is saying now.
Kropadope
@Cacti:
Sorry, I thought that might make a nice addition.
NR
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Actually those are tears of laughter at how silly you are.
Cacti
@Darkrose:
I wonder how many African American BJers saying “black people don’t like all the nasty insults Cornel West has made toward President Obama” it will take for Sanders supporters to believe it.
NR
@Cacti: I think the biggest story with Trump is not that he lost, but that he vastly underperformed his polling.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Verdict is unanimous. They even copied my work.
allium
@Adam L Silverman: Actually, the salad dressing dates back to the 1920s, when it was created at the Palace Hotel in San Francisco to honor the then-popular play of the same name.
Cacti
@NR:
Maybe. Caucuses are harder to poll than primaries. I think NH will give a better view of his actual level of support among the rank and file. The demographics of NH matter a lot less for the GOP primary, as they’re the overwhelmingly white party as is.
Darkrose
@Kropadope: Um, he said that in June. And while I don’t pretend to have my fingers on the pulse of more than one member of the black electorate, I feel like Jamil Smith and other black pundits and commentators do, and what they’re seeing tracks with the numbers: the overwheling majority of black voters aren’t feeling the Bern. And instead of listening to why, Sanders supporters are patting us on the head and telling us if we just listen, it’ll be obvious why we should vote for Bernie.
NR
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Remember when the NYT was relevant? Yeah, me either.
See you in New Hampshire.
Kropadope
@Cacti:
I wonder how many Clinton supporters are blithely taking the AA vote for granted.
Amir Khalid
@Kropadope:
Cornell West has been saying that about Obama for a lot longer than a couple of years. And if I were a wagering man, I’d wager that a lot more African-Americans listen to their ministers (see Darkrose #108) than to Cornell West.
ETA: I think we can conclude that Hillary takes the African-American vote very seriously indeed.
Kropadope
@Darkrose:
That’s not what’s happening and that false trope is super condescending.
David *Rafael* Koch
#Feel the Burn
tooo soon?
seaboogie
@mclaren:
So how is the weather, over Delphi way?
Kropadope
@Amir Khalid: It’s not exactly like Bernie has Cornel West front and center in his campaign. One doesn’t choose his or her own supporters. It’s not exactly like Hillary and her well-known supporters have gone entirely without overblown criticisms of Obama. Hillary also has a history of explicit racist appeals to voters.
Cacti
@Amir Khalid:
That’s another reason where comparing Bernie to Obama in 2008 falls flat. The black church has been that community’s greatest engine for civic and political engagement for more than century. Obama had deep ties to the black church when he started his Presidential run. Bernie has none, because he comes from a state where it was never necessary to cultivate them.
Darkrose
@Kropadope: It’s happened to me. It’s happened to Ta-Nehisi Coates. When multiple black people have told you that “black people don’t appreciate Cornel West” and your reply is, “I don’t think they care about that,” I don’t think I’m the one being condescending here.
David *Rafael* Koch
@Kropadope: one does not choose his own supporters, but one chooses who to campaign with.
Turn the question around. If Hillary was campaigning with someone who trashed Senator Sanders with vile epithets it would be a firestorm. Rightfully so.
Cacti
@Darkrose:
Lest anyone think it’s just on BJ that Cornel West is problem for Bernie, Jonathan Capehart wrote an editorial for the WaPo on 01/22 entitled: “How Cornel West Hurts Bernie Sanders”.
His very first sentence read:
Kropadope
@Darkrose: No, you misrepresenting what I’m saying and linking it to a trope designed to thoughtlessly dismisss a broad swathe of people is condescending.
For example, here you completely misrepresent my argument. I didn’t’ say “I don’t think they care about that” or anything remotely to that effect. I said that that West’s comments aren’t necessarily well-known, that the campaign isn’t exactly putting West front and center, West isn’t Sanders, and that Obama’s supporters can support someone who criticizes Obama. None of those things are “I don’t think they care about that.”
Darkrose
Good piece by Jamil Smith on why Sanders isn’t clicking with many black voters:
AxelFoley
@Kropadope:
Oh, so it’s become “Look, Hillary did it, too!” That makes it OK?
And Bernie has had that gap-toothed bastard front and center. The fucker was just rallying with him a day ago. Bernie might not be able to choose his supporters, but he does choose who he wants to campaign for him.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
From 538:
Writing on the wall. #Preview of South #BlackLivesMatter
AxelFoley
@Darkrose:
This. All this.
But, as constantly happens, I expect this to fall on deaf ears from the Bernie stans.
Cacti
@AxelFoley:
I remember when West said of Obama:
Now he’s out stumping for Sanders…an upper middle-class Jewish man who considers himself very smart, very savvy, and very effective in getting what he wants.
Darkrose
@Kropadope: Multiple people have pointed out that West’s comments are, in fact, an issue, but all you’ve been doing is arguing why they’re not. We’re saying “This is why black voters aren’t in love with Bernie,” and you’re responding, “No, that’s not really a big issue.” I’m waiting for Sanders supporters to respond, “Huh, okay. I can see where that might be a problem,” instead of saying things that invalidate my experience and those of other black folks.
Kropadope
@AxelFoley: Judging from the promotional material the campaign puts out, West barely registers. They’re way more inclined to highlight Killer Mike as far as celebrity AA support. Granted, I didn’t know who he was prior to the election, but he comports himself and is a advocate than West.
He could continue to point out his history of successes while in office. The simple fact of the matter is, while Hillary runs on experience and the ability to weild the levers of power, Sanders has been a more consistenly effective legislator who haseen more consistently on the right side of the issues.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Only 1 more precinct left now. It’s in Polk County, where Clinton leads 53.3-46.
AxelFoley
@Cacti:
I remember that. Ain’t that some shit?
Darkrose
@Kropadope:
Did you read the whole piece? Especially this bit:
If you genuinely want to know why black voters are leery of Sanders, this is a good place to start.
Kropadope
@Darkrose: No, that’s not what I’m saying and e you persist in asserting that after I politely explained that I wasn’t saying that and summarized my actual argument, I’m just going to have to consider you a liar.
I gotta say I’m impressed though. This is the longest Clinton supporters have managed to avoid resorting to some combination of lies, bullying, and condescending on an election thread in a long time.
ETA: Never mind, I forgot that Omnes opened with lying.
seaboogie
I think that the greatest mistake white pols can make is to assume that black voters are a monolith, and have a unified frame of reference, and it is paternalistic to treat this cohort thusly. Anybody who loves the sound of his own voice (hellooo, Cornel West) more than actively working on what is constructive for his community is immediately suspect. Narcissistic bloviating knows no race, nor political party.
And maybe I am being paternalistic in saying this, melanin-challenged as I am, but maybe whites don’t have a total lock on being vainglorious assholes…in some weird way, this could be measured as progress.
Cacti
@Darkrose:
As problematic as West is for Bernie as a surrogate for black voters, I think that may end up being less trouble overall than when most Hispanic voters in the western states find out that Bernie voted to support the Minutemen.
Darkrose
@Kropadope: How exactly am I “bullying” you? And how are you not arguing that West’s comments don’t matter when you said, “I don’t think most voters are paying a whole lot of attention to what Cornel West may have said a couple years ago as opposed to what Bernie is saying now.”
Kropadope
@Darkrose:
Huh, funny, that doesn’t look like a quote to me. In fact, it looks like that same false trope that you were using against me and since I explained twice that I wasn’t saying what you claimed I was, now you’re turning it on Bernie.
Liar, liar…
He raises these issues in speeches and debates and other campaign events all the time and has been fighting for these things for decades. Now excuse me while I locate a fire extinguisher for your pants.
Kropadope
@Darkrose: No, you’re lying. Omnes is the one most prone to bullying behavior.
Darkrose
@Kropadope: What the actual fuck? I linked you to the source, which was Jamil Smith’s article here. If you want to call me a liar, fine, but calling me a liar because I quoted someone else is just fucking stupid.
Darkrose
@Cacti: Do you have a link for the Minutemen thing? That surprises me, unless it was more of an offshoot of Sanders’ being in favor of gun rights.
amk
@Darkrose:
you are arguing with a passive aggressive asshole. no percentage in it.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Amir Khalid: Ya left out Baud.
Cacti
@Darkrose:
From the Latin Times back in December.
Kropadope
@Darkrose:
-West’s comments don’t matter
-I don’t think most voters are paying a whole lot of attention to what Cornel West may have said a couple years ago as opposed to what Bernie is saying now
You may notice, these statements aren’t equivalent. My statement suggests the comments aren’t well known. Your statement is that they don’t matter. The statements can matter without being broadly known by voters. See the difference?
NR
@Cacti: Which, of course, he didn’t do.
NR
@Cacti: So your argument that Sanders “supported the Minutemen” is that he voted to prevent the US government from handing information on American citizens over to foreign governments.
That’s pretty fucking weaksauce.
Cacti
@NR:
Sanders voted “aye” on the following Amendment to Homeland Security Appropriations bill:
Link to the Congressional Record.
Then-Congressman Sanders joined the Republican majority in voting for the above amendment. No amount of handwaving can erase that fact.
NR
@Cacti: No “handwaving” needed. Why should the US government be handing information on American citizens over to foreign governments? If the US government has that information, the US government can police its own citizens.
To try to spin this into saying that Sanders somehow supports the Minutemen is really pathetic.
Kropadope
@Darkrose:
Right, and your source wasn’t actually quoting Sanders. You may notice the lack of quotation marks around the “just wait until they get to know me” bit, while Smith does use quotation marks when he puts in an actual quote.
Smith is trying to do the same thing in the linketicle that you’re doing here, pass off a false trope with wide media circulation. He doesn’t use Sandersn words because that’s not the argument Sanders is making and that wasn’t the only part of the article where Smith tried to pull this off.
Amir Khalid
@BillinGlendaleCA:
My apologies to the candidate. The corrected list:
The Democratic race:
Cacti
@NR:
Voting to give cover to the activities of a group designated as a hate group by the Southern Poverty Law Center isn’t what I’d call weaksauce.
Three Minutemen were convicted of murder in Arizona for their assassination of a Mexican-American citizen and his 9-year old daughter, and the attempted murder of his wife, based on the (false) belief that he was a narco-trafficker because Mexican.
Amir Khalid
@Kropadope:
Omnes is no bully.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@Cacti: His record repeatedly voting against immigration reform will be devastating.
He likes to talk about his father being a polish immigrant coming to here for the american dream. Yet he votes against latinos having the same opportunity.
Kropadope
@Amir Khalid: Omnes makes deliberately provocative, false statements to try to get a rise out of me literally every time I am in a thread with him. He is deliberately trying to create a hostile environment here. Omnes is a bully.
NR
@Cacti: Sanders didn’t want the US government to share information about American citizens with a foreign government that can’t even keep its own celebrity detainees in jail. The fact that you would try to claim this means he supports the Minutemen is incredibly dishonest.
Is this what we have to look forward to in the weeks ahead, as the Clinton campaign grows increasingly desperate?
Darkrose
@Kropadope: I’m still not seeing the huge distinction here, but I will concede that you did, in fact, say that voters aren’t paying attention to what West may have said years ago. However, as noted, the comment I mentioned was from six months ago, and as several people have noted, black voters remember what West has said. Quoting Smith again:
So I’m arguing that your assertion that “I don’t think most voters are paying a whole lot of attention to what Cornel West may have said a couple years ago” is incorrect when it comes to black voters, and that this is indicative of a perception problem between Sanders and the majority of the black electorate.
Cacti
@NR:
Good luck with that explanation.
I guess you could say there was no way of knowing that they’d turn out to be a pack of anti-Hispanic bigots and thugs, but all of the warning signs surely seemed to be there.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
BREAKING
(NPR) – 4:06 AM EST — Hillary wins Iowa.
177k turnout, 2nd highest behind 2008 per Iowa Dem Party
Hands Sanders surprise stunning defeat.
#YasQueen!
NR
@Cacti: The US government can police its own citizens. Not wanting the government to share information on American citizens with a foreign government that is incredibly corrupt even up to the highest levels, does not mean someone supports a racist hate group.
Like I said, this line of attack is pathetic.
David *Rafael* Koch
https://twitter.com/DomenicoNPR/status/694446666011770884
Amir Khalid
@Kropadope:
One could read that as implying that Hillary had the means and the motive to rig the Iowa caucus. You could have phrased it better.
Cacti
@NR:
I don’t think an impassioned defense of giving cover to anti-Hispanic hate groups is likely to make that particular demographic “Feel the Bern”.
Just a hunch. ;-)
Amir Khalid
@Kropadope:
One could read that as implying that Hillary had the means to rig the Iowa caucus. If that wasn’t your intent, you could have phrased it better.
Kropadope
@Amir Khalid: One could read it that way if they were a flagrantly dishonest asshole. There is not one component of that sentence that suggests that Hillary did anything illegal or unethical. I said that her campaign is staffed by people who successfully administered a proven, effective plan. That was a goddamn compliment if anything.
ETA: And this isn’t the first time. This has been a pattern with Omnes.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Cacti
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
Let the conspiracy theorizing begin!
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
So Sanders was unable to match Obama’s turnout of 241,000
Senator with 32 years of elected office, the darling of MSNBC, who had the full backing of the vaunted blogosphere couldn’t match skinny black guy with funny mooslim name, that nobody had ever heard of.
#FeelTheBurn
Amir Khalid
@Kropadope:
Your own pattern — accusations of lying and bullying against people who disagree with you — is no better.
Applejinx
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Got to hand it to her.
Through mobilizing the full force of the Clinton machine, all media outlets, turning out old people, manipulating the party machinery and working her ass off, Hillary Clinton has squeaked out a win in the traditionally Socialist state of Iowa.
We should ALL be suitably impressed.
Now all that remains is for her to discourage young people, as that’s the obvious threat to her nomination. She must put forth enough of a showing in NH that her performance discourages young people, so they’ll stay home and not get involved in politics. Probably her best angle there is a sort of retread-Reagan ‘Morning in America’ thing, and hope that people don’t remember what happened after that.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@Applejinx: yeah, “all media outlets” really love Hillary. How delusional is that statement.
For all your complaints, somehow an unknown black guy manged to beat her in Iowa by double digits. If he could do it, then so should have Sanders. He didn’t.
Amir Khalid
@Applejinx:
So this is the new Bernista line, is it: Hilary disenfranchising young Democratic voters? How would she even try to do that?
AxelFoley
Bernie stans are SHOOK.
satby
@Applejinx: OMIGD, because you personally don’t like Hillary Clinton it’s a huge conspiracy to disenfranchise young people.
Or you know, Sanders came close but didn’t close the deal. And hasn’t been closing the deal with a lot of people. But please keep the right wing BS out of it.
Bobby Thomson
@NR: “handing information on American citizens over to foreign governments”? Really? You mean like passports? Or Interpol?
Cry me a fucking white privileged river. Lotsa luck selling that to anyone not drinking the Flavor Aid.
Paul in KY
@TheMightyTrowel: Glad your cousin is doing what she’s doing. Sounds like a very smart young person.
Paul in KY
@mclaren: I think the mummy guy would do very well on the Republican side. Glad he’s not running this millennium.
Paul in KY
@Cacti: Using a person for minority outreach who has been (on the record) very uncomplimentary and peevish towards President Obama doesn’t seem like a sound tactical decision (to me).
Paul in KY
@Darkrose: I will say that when that magical time comes that all ‘regular’ people have a decent income & have no money problems, they all oughta be in a generally better mood.
Paul in KY
@Darkrose: I don’t think it’s really ‘realistically deliver’. It’s more about appreciating Pres. Obama & the problems he has had to deal with & the things he’s gotten done, in spite of unprecedented obstructionism/petulance from the GOP.
Paul in KY
@Darkrose: Supposedly this anti-Obama stuff from Dr. West goes back to him not getting a primo seat at 2nd inauguration.
Paul in KY
@NR: Some of these groups might be considered ‘terrorist organizations’ by the government of Mexico, or Canada or someone else who has the responsibility of looking out for their own citizens/interests.
We sure like info from other governments on their internal organized groups that spout anti-American rhetoric.
Paul in KY
@NR: The act was not written for Mexico, solely. It prohibits that info for any foreign government (including Great Britain, Canada, France, etc.)
mapaghimagsik
@Mnemosyne:
I’m right there with you. I think each candidate has a lot to offer the other in terms of strategy and appeal. Not only because it better prepares them for the general, but because it makes both of them candidates I’m excited voting for.
Shana
@Mnemosyne: Speaking of which, I’m seeing Hamilton April 2nd and 1776 April 3rd. Should be a fun weekend.
Bob In Portland
@hitchhiker: Seems to me that the reason why Dems lose the midterms is because Democratic presidents break their promises made during the presidential year. Plus, in the last decade there are lots of Republican lite candidates, which most recently could be laid at the feet of Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
The Democratic Party isn’t owed anyone’s vote. If you want to get votes, give the people candidates.
St. A
@Kropadope: Dead thread , but guy, you aren’t listening to what they’re saying.