The Iowa results on the Democratic side perfectly reflected my own fence-sitting sentiments — basically a tie with a slight lean toward Hillary Clinton. Maybe the primaries will still be important by the time I get to vote on the Ides of March!
Trump’s loser speech was as short as his stubby, vulgarian fingers since he had no polling leads to brag about. He didn’t call Iowans stupid, but you knew he wanted to; instead, he opted for phony graciousness. That stripped away the alpha primate façade. It was like watching the biblical Samson shave his head onstage.
Team Lil’ Marco needs to Apollo-13 a solution for the candidate’s terrible thirst — maybe an under-the-jawline port connected via translucent tubing to an under-the-jacket CamelBak hydration system. All during his third-place “victory” speech, he was rolling his lips like a llama working up an epic loogie. Never have I seen someone so very thirsty and yet so prohibited from taking a sip.
Looks like Team Lil’ Marco took my advice and shit-canned the advisor who told the candidate to lose the children’s storybook-reader voice and dial up the anger. The words that emerged from the Sahara of Rubio’s parched pie hole signified that the phony optimism is back, along with the ersatz children’s fairy tale style of beginning sentences with the word “for.”
Cruz sounded like the psycho he is. To paraphrase someone in a previous thread, the boring psycho beat the somewhat interesting one. I like that Hillary Clinton stepped on his victory speech. Nice touch, Team Clinton.
And finally, can we take a moment to dance on Jeb Bush’s political grave? Not just that — can we bury the Bush Dynasty and drive a stake through its fat black heart at last? Here’s hoping Jeb’s odious super PAC aims its squid cloud of money-propelled butt-hurt squarely at Rubio and takes him out so we can start with a clean slate unbesmirched by that wretched family’s malign influence.
Richard is absolutely right to caution against extrapolating from the Iowa results, but Bush couldn’t even buy 3%. That motherfucker is toast, and it’s a great day in America. Thanks for that, Iowa, if nothing else.
Open thread!
PS: Today’s Chicago meetup info right here.
boatboy_srq
I can’t help wondering which candidate will result in the greater GOTea meltdown: Cruz or Trump. I’m actually kinda hoping Cruz gets the nod and Trump runs 3rd party – although if that happens, the each side of the fault line can blame the other for being insufficiently
righteousconservativeAmericancrazyelectable.boatboy_srq
Added plus: something tells me that HEB?’s repeated [ab]use of the Shaivo references didn’t help nearly as much as his handlers thought it would.
Lord Baldrick
The Facts:
1) Clinton won last night. Coin flips and superdelegates matter most.
2) Sanders is EVIL INCARNATE. His candidacy is a SHITSTORM.
3) This used to be a pretty good website.
SFAW
@boatboy_srq:
As do I (and probably most of us here). But I’m guessing the closest we’ll come to that is Trump threatening to do it, in order to shake down the Kochs or the RNC (or both).
Grifters’R’Us – it’s what he (and Rethugs in general) does/(do)
Ultraviolet Thunder
It’ll be interesting how Trump handles his underdog status. His whole brand is based on his image as Alpha Male Winner.
You’re the loser now, Donald. What will you do?
SFAW
@Ultraviolet Thunder:
Dean Chambers is on the job. He’ll unskew things, proving that The Donald actually won by 10 percent.
contract3d
“Ted Cruz Deals Blow to Donald Trump” – am I the only one who initially read that as a drug reference?
schrodinger's cat
Jeb Bush did worse than Cray Cray Carson, that is just sad.
OzarkHillbilly
@Lord Baldrick:
Then go a w a y.
boatboy_srq
@SFAW: If that happens, the one problem is that Conservatistism won’t have to face facts for another four years: 2017-20 will be all about how [Reichwing candidate X] sabotaged the True Conservative and let the Dems steal the [s]election again. If it’s just one of them, then there’s no getting around the loss, but if both run then there won’t be anything but fingerpointing – and more ALEC dollars in the ’20 cycle.
CarolDuhart2
Jeb’s loss is well deserved. His SOS and other vote-suppression methods that lead to the stealing of the vote in 2000 cost lives. Iraq, Katrina, those who offed themselves due to the 2008 financial meltdown. He cheated to make his brother President probably under the understanding that someday he would have a turn. And his brother’s term was so disasterous that no Bush will ever win anything ever outside of Texas.
So this total meltdown is more satisfying than watching Trump take second. Trump will bounce back. Bush is done.
boatboy_srq
@schrodinger’s cat: Doesn’t that imply that the GOTea [s]electorate is too cray-cray even for more Shrubbery?
OzarkHillbilly
@contract3d: i saw some sexual innuendo.
boatboy_srq
@contract3d: You may be, but now you mention it…
Bobby Thomson
@Lord Baldrick: who are you again?
Eric U.
@OzarkHillbilly: I haven’t installed the new pie filter yet, but if insufferable people keep showing up showing their butthurt, I might have to get around to it
japa21
Actually, despite all the talk otherwise, I think Trump did well last night. A lot of the talk prior to last night was that Trump drew a lot of angry people, but also people who didn’t have a history of voting and there were a lot of predictions that the actual vote total would fall well below his polling.
I think he came within about 3% of his last polling numbers which tells me he does get voters out. This is specially interesting considering that his ground game was considered to be very weak.
Cruz not only had the same general enthusiasm from his base supporters (specially the religious right) but also had a strong ground game so I am not surprised at all that he won. That will not be the case in NH,at least not in terms of final result.
Rubio was the surprise last night, not in coming in 3rd, but in the overall total. For Iowa, at least, he became the establishment candidate. NH will be a real test for him. I don’t expect him to crack the top 4 there.
The key on the GOP side is if and when either Trump or Cruz drops out (which won’t be soon in either case) who the followers of the drop out will go to. I can’t see them going to Rubio.
On the Dem side, I give a lot of credit to Sanders for his showing. He should win NH easily. The big test for him will be Super Tuesday.
dogwood
@Lord Baldrick:
Well after reading what Bernie supporters had to say about old white people in Iowa last night, I shudder to think what they’ll say about AA’s when South Carolina comes around.
OzarkHillbilly
@boatboy_srq:
oh ye of little faith. Never underestimate the power of denial.
Amir Khalid
@Ultraviolet Thunder:
My guess (and hope) is that the Donald will train all his guns on Ted and fire for maximum damage, or whatever the artilleryman’s term is. (Dang, where’s Omnes when I need him?)
SFAW
@boatboy_srq:
I think you’re overly optimistic (so to speak) re: whether they face facts regarding Conservatism. They made a fair amount of noise about rethinking their strategy and tactics after the 2012 loss, and that “come to Jeebus” moment lasted for what? Three months? Maybe six, but no more than that.
Until they start getting booted out in the states – unlikely to happen in the South and probably Midwest — they’ll keep doing what they can to prevent anyone not like them from voting or getting anything done.
boatboy_srq
@OzarkHillbilly: True. But it will be harder to point fingers amongst their own if there’s no splintering of the Reichwing vote and they still lose. If there are two Reichwingers in the general, each’s camp can call out the other for dividing the vote. Plus the conviction that they are the True Real Ahmurrrcan Majority™ will be harder to sustain than if there was some Deceiver™ misleading the Faithful™ and costing them the [s]election.
p.a.
@boatboy_srq: They’re mouth breathing assholes, but they can taste the sour failure emanating from the Bush brand.
Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class
Thanks for the plug for the CamelBak, Betty – I love mine. I laughed while envisioning Mario wearing one all the time.
Maybe even give him a helmet and kneepads, too.
schrodinger's cat
@Amir Khalid: Hi there, Malaysian slaver, how is paw? When is the surgery scheduled. My hind fractured paw is healing very very slowly. Not a great start to the new year.
ETA: In the thread below Kropadope is giving me lessons in English grammar.
Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class
@Ultraviolet Thunder:
File bankruptcy,
boatboy_srq
@SFAW: I’m not suggesting there will be an actual “come to Jeebus” moment for them if only Cruz or Trump runs. I’m suggesting that it won’t happen at all if both run.
Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class
@contract3d:
I read it different, and was just happy that Ted finally came out of the closet. Dude gives off a real “I love men mien”.
No reflection on Trump. In Aryan world, manly men can receive, I understand.
boatboy_srq
@p.a.: and that’s worse than the toxic kimchee Carson is peddling? Whodathunk.
boatboy_srq
@Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class: eew. Eew. EEW.
JPL
Carson is going after Cruz’s dirty tricks. I wonder how many Carson voters, went to the Cruz camps because they were informed, Carson was dropping out. The Cruz camp is denying the allegations, but that’s difficult to do when there is a paper trail.
Amir Khalid
I suspect Rubio’s dry mouth is from nerves rather than dehydration. Which is odd in a man who’s been speaking in public as long as he has.
bystander
I’m taking a break from doing my quickstep stepdance on Jebula’s political grave (and hoping this is the end of the Bushies) to comment.
If by “Samson” we are not referring to a Victor Mature type and more of a Victor Moore type, then yes.
Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class
@Bobby Thomson:
The future Baldrick from the Blackadder Christmas Carol special.
Germy
@Lord Baldrick:
@mtaibbi Matt Taibbi Retweeted David Beard
At least a coin flip is probably more fair than Bush v. Gore.
OzarkHillbilly
@boatboy_srq: Oh they’ll just blame Obama.
Betty Cracker
@Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class: The Florida hiker’s friend, the CamelBak. You don’t have to stop and fish out a water bottle, giving the mosquitoes, snakes and gators time to catch up.
Keith G
In as much as there can be quite a bit of carping about Iowa, even this year shows that there is a bit of value in what goes on. Media performance is less important in Iowa which means real time interaction with the public is more necessary. That in turn adds greater opportunity for serendipity. It has been instructive.
I do not know what lessons the Hillary Campaign takes from this, but I hope that two lessons are that she needs to continue to improve her “retail” political skills and that ideologically speaking, she must be on the offensive. She must not use a prevent defensive strategy, but aggressively compete for voters who have shown an interest in Sanders ideas and passion.
Felonius Monk
@schrodinger’s cat:
True, but Jim Gilmore did worse than Other.
MattF
There’s a real need now for someone to point out (and keep pointing out) that ‘lil Marco is no moderate. His disgusting personal habits are amusing, but irrelevant– just consider the various disgusting people who have already been elected President.
Germy
@contract3d:
I did as well, but Ted would sell baby powder and corn starch cut with a bit of powdered dishwasher detergent.
MattF
@Felonius Monk: I noticed that. What’s Gilmore in it for, anyhow?
schrodinger's cat
@Keith G: Hillary needs to incorporate Sanders message about income inequality and some of his fire.
@Felonius Monk: But he wasn’t the putative front runner like Jebbie was.
Felonius Monk
@Amir Khalid:
But not odd for a man who has a lot to hide and is afraid he will be exposed at any moment.
Grumpy Code Monkey
I just realized that I would much rather have Trump as the GOP nominee than Cruz. If the unthinkable were to happen, I’d rather have President Trump than President Cruz.
There. I said it. Yes, it’d be a disaster worthy of an Irwin Allen movie, but it would still be less bad than Cruz. And he’d be a guaranteed one-termer (not enough money in it).
I don’t doubt that McConnell would want to fuck over Cruz as much as humanly possible, but where their interests align (such as with repealing the PPACA) I’d expect they’d cooperate fully.
Realize that if we do elect either Clinton or Sanders, we are not flipping the House and are likely to not flip the Senate; we’d be facing at least two years of shutdowns and brinksmanship and impeachment proceedings. Supreme Court justices? Good luck getting the Senate to approve any of ’em. Hell, good luck getting any Cabinet members approved.
The only question is whether the House would be even more dysfunctional than they are now. Which drives them crazier – a Negro or a Clinton in charge?
Kropadope
@Felonius Monk: The poll reporting I saw had Santorum in last place. Or did Gilmore not even register enough votes to be reported on?
Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class
@boatboy_srq:
Rule 34, man. Somebody would watch it. Probably a deep and disturbed somebody, but somebody would.
Wag
@contract3d:
Or male prostitution.
Germy
I can’t help but see Rubio’s defensiveness about his sweating and water consumption as a clue to his reptilian alien true identity.
When he’s off camera and away from the crowds he sleeps in a full immersion tank. For breakfast, aides toss raw fish and fish guts into the tank.
Under the hot lights of a TV appearance, he sweats profusely, takes frequent gulps of water, and rejects the concept of man-made climate change. “it’s only… natural for sea levels to rise. It’s something good, not something to be combatted… or feared…” If aides fail to bring a fresh water bottle, he panics and his tongue darts hungrily from side to side.
He wins the GOP nomination and beats HRC easily in the general. Then, on the day he is sworn in, he pulls off his “human” mask and reveals his true face: The Creature From The Black Lagoon.
cokane
The Bush dynasty is far from dead. You’re going to see those second generation kiddos at some point.
Germy
“Other” beat the shit out of Gilmore.
JMG
Those of us old enough to remember 2008 (which let’s face it, much of a significant Sanders bloc doesn’t really, they could’ve been as young as 10) remember that the doom chorus of that February, part Beltway blowhard, part the Democrats who spend their lives in a state of fearful fretting was that a long-drawn out primary would weaken both Obama and Clinton and leave either unable to unite the party.
All campaigns have nothing but problems all day every day until election day. Offhand, I’d rather have Hillary and Bernie’s problems than the set on the other side.
Roger Moore
@Amir Khalid:
Fire for effect.
JPL
Betty, This deserves to be posted on the front page. Barbie and her sisters Since it’s been posted on reddit awhile ago, it might not have the shock value to our loyal followers.
Felonius Monk
@Amir Khalid:
Fire for Effect, I believe. Hopefully, Omnes will clarify or confirm.
schrodinger's cat
@Grumpy Code Monkey: Is the sky always overcast where you live?
Amir Khalid
@schrodinger’s cat:
Still attached. I have that follow-up appointment on the 11th, right after CNY, and then surgery most likely sometime after.
Kropadope’s been trying to teach you grammar? Tsk, tsk. And you’re right, “If Bernie wins the nomination” is a big if, and after the Iowa caucus result, which didn’t help him as much as he needed it to, it has only become a bigger if; Hillary has now gained a delegate on him.
FlipYrWhig
@cokane: That’s the 4th generation, no? Prescott, GHWB, GWB-Jeb-Neil-Marvin, George P.-Jenna-NotJenna-etc.
OzarkHillbilly
@Grumpy Code Monkey:
I’m not so sure about that. As President he would have to put it in a blind trust and he is sure to make alot more money that way.
BC in Illinois
But, if I remember correctly:
Did someone get bored?
Grumpy Code Monkey
Let’s wait until after Stupor Tuesday for that. I’m expecting shenanigans on the part of someone (RtR, the RNC, someone) to steal votes for Jeb.
And he still has money to spend; let’s let him spend it all. Let’s see how expensive a single vote can get.
MattF
@Grumpy Code Monkey: The political class has noticed that Cruz will turn on you if he thinks it’s in his interest to do so, and he will do so without any sign of remorse. That said, I suspect, fwiw, that Cruz has realized that calling McConnell a liar on the Senate floor was a mistake– although it’s unclear if he understands exactly why it was a mistake. In any case, the best Cruz can expect from McConnell is to be ignored.
Kropadope
@JMG:
All news it bad news unless you’re John McCain.
Betty Cracker
@Grumpy Code Monkey: I’d choose the hemlock of Trump over the strychnine of Cruz too. Either would be a disaster, obvs, but Cruz is a narcissistic true believer in a scary millenarian vision foretold by the Prophet Margaret Atwood in “A Handmaid’s Tale.” Trump is merely a narcissist.
OzarkHillbilly
@Germy: Reptiles don’t sweat. They look for shade and pant.
Germy
Here’s my question: If the Jeb Machine fails again, will the money just go away (like the candidate) or will he spend what’s left digging up every last bit of dirt on Rubio… out of spite?
It sort of pisses me off, when I turn on CBS, ABC and NBC broadcast TV and see them all treating Rubio like a winner because he came in (gasp!) third.
As much as I despise the CrimeFamily, I’d love to see JEB aim his artillery at Marco.
Kropadope
@schrodinger’s cat:
No, actually I was giving lessons on discerning the relevant point in a comment and responding to that, as opposed to beating a strawman. Clearly the lesson didn’t take.
Felonius Monk
@MattF:
Who knows? Maybe his wife just wants him out of the house.
Gimlet
So how did those polls showing Trump not margin of error, but overwhelmingly ahead get it so wrong?
cokane
@FlipYrWhig: No, there’s no political future for W’s daughters. It’s the 2nd generation mexican americans, Jeb’s sons, who you will see one day. One already has a statewide office in Texas
Matt McIrvin
@JMG: The raw intranecine hatred that shows up on our side during these primary campaigns always spooks me. In ’08 it dissipated pretty thoroughly.
Felonius Monk
@schrodinger’s cat: True that.
Cacti
@dogwood:
Bernie has done a great job energizing white youngs.
But if that wasn’t enough to win him Iowa, I’d say that’s a big ass problem for states less white than Iowa (i.e. most of the country).
Paul in KY
I think ole JEB……soldiers on. He has to do all he can to tell mommy dearest he tried his bestest. Also, being out on the trail being humiliated is better (IMO) than facing her.
MattF
@Germy: I guess the money mostly ‘belongs’ to the R2R Super-PAC… I don’t know if the Brinks Trucks can be put into reverse.
Matt McIrvin
@Gimlet: Iowa is a caucus, which means that differential turnout phenomena are magnified even over what you get in a primary. They’re really hard to call. Evidently Trump’s people were less motivated to turn out.
Germy
@MattF: I’d ask balloon-juice commenter “Right To Rise” but he seems to have disappeared.
Paul in KY
@Lord Baldrick: I had a Republican friend at work today ask if Hillary had used a 2 headed coin. Said she won 6 coin flips in a row, calling ‘heads’ on each one.
I have no idea if there is any truth to this (the winning the 6 flips, all on heads).
Grumpy Code Monkey
@schrodinger’s cat: See that silver lining over there? There’s a big black cloud behind it.
Look, I’m just being realistic. We’re not going to win back the House this time around. We’re most likely not going to win the Senate. House Republicans have promised to bring impeachment proceedings against HRC for Benghazi, emails, Vince Fucking Foster, you name it, the instant she is sworn in (our only saving grace is that the current crop of House Republicans would be too incompetent to draft articles of impeachment). The Senate isn’t going to be any more accomodating wrt to Cabinet and Supreme Court appointments than it was towards Obama.
The best possible outcome is two more years of the last two years. Just want to make sure we understand that. We should be focused on flipping Congress. WH matters, but Congress matters more.
OzarkHillbilly
@Betty Cracker: Over at the Daily Show, they’ve chosen Bone Cancer.
Germy
@Grumpy Code Monkey:
Agree
Felonius Monk
@Kropadope:
I think that was the case. The list I saw had Gilmore with 0% at the bottom below Santorum 1%.
Matt McIrvin
@Betty Cracker:
But he’s one who is willing to walk into territory that is normally taboo and actively rile up violent white supremacists. That’s what really scares me, the appeal to actual literal neo-Nazis.
Cruz is the logical extreme expression of the post-Reagan conservative movement as we know it. Trump is actually something else again.
MattF
@Felonius Monk: I suspect that ‘Other’ was a euphemism for ‘couldn’t figure out how to vote in the caucus system’.
Paul in KY
@Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class: I use one at most Fests I go to. Good to have that water right there, so you don’t have to give up a primo spot to go buy a bottle.
raven
Anyone that would run is a narcissist.
SFAW
@Germy:
And we don’t even have Rowdy Roddy to save us, alas.
Tim C.
@JMG: Ohmygod yes. Seriously, I know there’s some bad blood between the Sanders and Clinton campaigns and supporters, but compared to 2008 it’s like a giggly pillow fight between tweenagers.
Ultraviolet Thunder
@Felonius Monk:
Gilmore for Rounding Error 2016.
Highly qualified!
MattF
@Matt McIrvin: Cruz is a Texas Republican. Just go look at the platform of the Texas R party– and it’s been that way for a long time.
bin Lurkin'
@Lord Baldrick:
A resounding Heh indeed to that one, this blog used to be pro Obama and anti Clinton, I mean The War Journals of Hillary Clinton first saw the light of LCD screens here.
Clinton had all the name recognition… got stuck in a tie.
Clinton began with a 55% lead over Sanders… got stuck in a tie.
Clinton controlled all the traditional revenue streams which provided too much money to challenge… got stuck in a tie.
Clinton had the best senior staff money could buy…got stuck in a tie.
Clinton controlled the party infrastructure… got stuck in a tie.
Clinton had the big media endorsements…got stuck in a tie.
Clinton had the pundit’s belief she’d dominate… got stuck in a tie.
Clinton dominated all dem coverage by cable news…got stuck in a tie
Clinton mastered at least 5 American dialects/speech patterns…got stuck in a tie
Clinton adopted the popular parts of her opponents messages…got stuck in a tie.
Clinton spent most of a decade planning a decisive win in Iowa…got stuck in a tie.
Clinton spent a life-time earning the best resume, ever…got stuck in a tie.
Clinton dominated the coin-tosses… got stuck in a tie.
DCF
@Amir Khalid:
I believe the phrase is ‘Fire for Effect’….
Amir Khalid
@Felonius Monk:
I wasn’t even aware that Gilmore had been doing any campaigning. Or indeed anything else that presidential candidates do.
Sherparick
Steve M at No More Mister Nice Blog and Josh Marshall at TPM have articles on how Rubio’s performance has restored the morale of the Republican Establishment and their lackeys in the Village Media. Now Rubio is anything but “moderate” from his war monging in the Middle East against Iran and invading Syria and reinvading Iraq to anti-environmental pro-Global burning policies, to his economic policies skewed to the rich. He is the President Grover Norquist and the Koch Brothers dream of who will sign the laws that repeal every progressive, liberal, reform law from the Sherman Anti-Trust Act of 1890 to the Affordable Care Act. But because of his Cuban name and youth, he will be contrasted with Hilary, who remains a candidate with perhaps fatal flaws and tendency to surround herself in bubble of sympathizers. http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/initial-reflections-a-better-night-for-republicans
OzarkHillbilly
@raven: Tends to be a job requirement.
Paul in KY
@Felonius Monk: I think it is:
Fire for maximum effect.
Betty Cracker
@raven: I think that’s the truth. We’re merely quibbling over degree, I guess, and who can plausibly fake humility.
Sherparick
@Germy: Yep, at least for domestic law and Fiscal policy. Foreign affairs, Supreme Court, and executive branch appointments the Presidency matters the most. As long s Grover Norquist, Rush Limbaugh, and the Koch brothers are calling the Republican Party’s tune, the Democrats will have to hold the Presidency.
Iowa Old Lady
@MattF: I was trying to figure out what “other” might mean but I don’t know enough about the details on the R side to have any clue. On the D side, when people go to their corners, you can go to an “uncommitted” area, so maybe it’s like that. Also at mine, you could caucus for Willie Wilson, whoever that is, though no one did. Maybe there was someone like him on the R side.
MattF
@Betty Cracker: I think fake humility is relatively easy– it’s fake sincerity that raises philosophical issues.
schrodinger's cat
I think, Abominable Snow Kitteh, makes a better nominee than either Cruz or Rubio.
Punchy
@bin Lurkin’: Last time I checked, it wasn’t a tie. Clinton won. I’m sure Sanders can get the nomination by piling up seconds, right?
Paul in KY
@MattF: You know, back in the day, the Earl of Warwick & Margaret of Anjou actually reconciled in the holy cause of getting rid of Edward IV. If those 2 can bury the hatchet, then Teddy boy & the Senitortise can patch up things enough to work together (if that slimy shit becomes Pres).
Betty Cracker
@bin Lurkin’: Clinton has obnoxious partisans who comment here. Sanders has obnoxious partisans who comment here. The front-pagers are about evenly split, near as I can tell. Most people are keeping it civil and have vowed to vote for whichever Democrat wins. Doesn’t seem like a recipe for keening butt-hurt, and yet…
Just Some Fuckhead
@Keith G:
I dunno if that’s in the cards based on her post-caucus speech. There was a perfect time to reiterate her campaign launch theme of not taking the nomination for granted and working for every vote. Instead, she did the assumed close after a fairly disastrous Iowa campaign where she gave up a 50 point polling lead to end in a dead tie. Along the way, as her inevitability gave way to ambiguity, her attacks – and those launched by her supporters – became increasingly more desperate until it was clear she and they have no strategy that doesn’t involve her being the inevitable candidate and if you think she has to earn the nomination, fuck you.
bin Lurkin'
Oops, I forgot one..
Clinton is the wife of a still popular former Democratic President…got stuck in a tie.
dogwood
@cokane:
Yup. The Bushes are no more dead than the Republican Party is dead. Wishful thinking on our side.
OzarkHillbilly
@Betty Cracker: Baud is pretty good at faking humility.
Felonius Monk
@Amir Khalid: Gilmore has been pretty much a non-entity. I thought he had dropped out, but then he was enabled for the last kiddie-table debate, so I guess he’s still in it, but certainly doesn’t appear viable.
BTW, I hope everything goes well for you with the pinky. I have an occasional gout flare-up in my toe, so I know it’s not fun. This gettin’ old kinda sucks, but it does beat the alternative.
Germy
I would vote for my cat to keep Cruz or Rubio out of the White House.
My cat has promised to treat mice fairly. My cat has promised fleas will have a prominent voice in her administration. My cat has promised not to wake me up 3:00 a.m. to play.
Good enough for me.
Amir Khalid
@bin Lurkin’:
Some reality for you:
Bernie needed a big win in one of his strongest states, against a rival with a 20-point national lead … got stuck in a tie. If Bernie can’t score a win in Iowa, where else is he going to make up ground against Hillary?
Kropadope
@Punchy: Hillary barely eked out a win with all the advantages in the world. The next contest will be way more decisive and not in her favor.
DCF
@bin Lurkin’:
Bernie Arrives in New Hampshire to Crowd of Cheering Supporters **VIDEO**
Watch from 0:00 => 1:28 and 2:40 => 7:15
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017326061
Anya
My dad thinks if we end up with Clinton facing Rubio, it’ll be similar to Lazio and Clinton’s race. He says Rubio is too smarmy and that smarminess is hard to contain. Also, the lawless republican primary is not helping.
schrodinger's cat
@Germy: What are her positions on catnip and tuna?
Randy P
@bin Lurkin’: I’m just gonna add “… in Iowa” to all of those and shrug.
Germy
The Onion:
Archon
As far as I can tell the Sanders nomination plan is.
1) Do well in Iowa
2) Do well in New Hampshire
3) ?????
4) Political revolution sweeps Bernie into the Dem nomination and White House
Underpaid Propagandist
Can’t look at any of ’em yet, especially the Republic ones, but I wonder if that silly weekly religion-changer from Florida is on some heavy meds?—they do tend to dry the racist, oligarch-humping palate.
Just Some Fuckhead, Tone Police
@Amir Khalid: I don’t understand the logic that Iowa is Bernie’s state when he started 50 points down to Clinton.
Germy
@schrodinger’s cat: She gave more than one speech to the tuna and catnip lobby. We suspect she is in favor of them.
I don’t trust her. She gave speeches to a flea PAC as well as the makers of Frontline and Revolution For Cats. She hasn’t responded to my requests for clarification.
Hurling Dervish
I think Jeb’s brother already came up with the Camelbak solution.
http://m.theregister.co.uk/2004/10/12/bush_wireless_coaching/
dogwood
@Kropadope:
That’s true, but there will be primaries after NH. Hillary has plenty of weaknesses as a candidate, but Bernie has weaknesses too.
Betty Cracker
@dogwood: The Bush Dynasty is not pinin’! It’s passed on! This dynasty is no more! It has ceased to be! It’s expired and gone to meet its maker! It’s a stiff! Bereft of life, it rests in peace! If Right to Rise hadn’t nailed it to the perch, it’d be pushing up the daisies! Its metabolic processes are now ‘istory! It’s off the twig! It’s kicked the bucket, it’s shuffled off its mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin’ choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-DYNASTY!!
Kropadope
@Archon: That number three is the same as the number three for every underdog candidate for president. Use exposure from strong performances in early states as a basis for additional exposure, fund raising, and hopefully drawing more support in the later races.
BL
I wondered how Trump would react to losing and the fact he is spending his own money to lose.
His latest tweet is starting to address that point.
I can’t see him to continue to be willing to spend his own money unless he is winning. So the question becomes, can he fundraise?
bin Lurkin'
@Betty Cracker:I haven’t told anyone to DIAF yet.
As I said in an earlier thread, I’m amazed at the number of virulent pro Clinton posters in 2016 who have been outed as equally virulent anti Clinton posters in 2008. This is happening on a much more active site than this one but it’s become regular feature there and I’m fairly sure the phenomenon is widespread.
This site was virulently anti Clinton and Pro Obama in 2008. It’s really eye opening to watch the transformation, the same rhetoric that was once used to trash Hillary is now being employed against Sanders often by the same people.
Felonius Monk
@Betty Cracker:
Betty, if it was all peace and tranquility here, would anybody show up and wouldn’t it be kind of boring? IMO, a certain level of tension and controversy is the lifeblood of this endeavor.
Frankensteinbeck
@Just Some Fuckhead, Tone Police:
Because in all the others, he stayed 20 points behind with no sign of budging.
Kropadope
@dogwood: Oh, I don’t doubt it. I am very cognizant of Bernie’s problems. I just don’t think it’s fair to treat the Iowa results as Bernie’s epitaph. He’s viable until at least Super Tuesday. Let’s see if he can build on his current position.
OzarkHillbilly
@Betty Cracker: Nice channeling of John Cleese.
SFAW
@Betty Cracker:
Betty –
Why bother? I’m a-guessin’ that he’s the latest incarnation of Rethug-pretending-he’s-a-Bern-bot troll “Thoughtful Today.” Lotta stylistic similarity.
Germy
MANCHESTER, N.H. — Hours before the end of the Iowa caucuses on Monday night, three Republican candidates had already assembled in New Hampshire to rally their supporters. Anticipating disappointment in Iowa, the group — made up of current and former governors — has chosen to make a stand here instead.
Former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey and Gov. John Kasich of Ohio have long viewed New Hampshire, a politically unpredictable state with an influential bloc of moderate Republicans and independent voters, as more hospitable terrain than Iowa.
SFAW
@Betty Cracker:
Doesn’t even have beautiful plumage.
Germy
Donald Trump has led every poll in New Hampshire for months, often by huge margins. So far, the three governors, along with Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas, have all been clustered closely together in the polls, far behind Trump. That may change quickly over the next week, as the impact of the Iowa caucuses ripples through New Hampshire. With Cruz’s Iowa victory and Rubio’s unexpectedly strong finish, both candidates now have a new opening to sell themselves to New Hampshire voters, and perhaps even to threaten Trump’s commanding advantage.
Germy
On the Democratic side, the split decision in Iowa seems unlikely to scramble the New Hampshire race. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont has led in opinion polls by varying margins, and his populist message has attracted vast crowds in a state where he was already a familiar figure.
But Hillary Clinton has entered New Hampshire as an underdog before and emerged victorious. She has a deep political organization in New Hampshire, where she mounted a political comeback in 2008 after Barack Obama defeated her in Iowa.
Clinton’s backers here believe there is a chance she can close the gap with Sanders over the last week.
(NY Times)
catclub
@japa21: Rubio:
Wow. That would be a big drop off for him. 3-5-9 is a much lees effective road to victory than the 3-2-1
that he has proposed.
The election in NH is likely to help Cruz. He has rounded up the super conservative vote to himself. And the circular firing squad of ‘respectable Republicans’ will be aimed at Rubio. As long as they all stay in, that helps Trump and Cruz. Last time, the far-far right did not congeal early to stop Romney. This time they are already pretty much congealed. That steady 27-30% of the GOP could win a lot of primaries if the rest of the field is divided.
Gin & Tonic
@Felonius Monk: Plus all the clicks help fund Cole’s mustard habit.
Chyron HR
@bin Lurkin’:
And in an amazing coincidence, the same “Give us our nomination or we’ll burn your party down” rhetoric that was once used by Hillary’s supporters is now being employed by Sanders’s supporters. GO FIGURE!
p.a.
@Grumpy Code Monkey:
It’s all personality conflict, not policy differences. Give ’em power and watch the shit roll down. Frodo & Sam were hiding from 2 arguing orcs in Mordor. Sam wished that antagonism would spread. Frodo realised it was SOP, but if the hobbits were spotted, argument over, hobbits cooked.
It’s in their nature.
Iowa Old Lady
After BL mentioned Trump’s tweets, I went and looked. Thought you might enjoy his excuse making:
Kropadope
@Frankensteinbeck: That’s not exactly true. Sanders has gained on Clinton by 14 point in one of her strongest states. He still has a long way to go, but the election isn’t for 25 days. A lot can happen before then.
MattF
@Betty Cracker: Since you’ve raised the subject of parrots… Allow me to link to this quite amazing NYT Magazine article.
shortstop
Funny–we were calling it the Caucasianus last night. Those are the whitest rooms I’ve ever seen.
Glad I’m not the only one who’s not too distracted by the Trump and Cruz circuses to luxuriate over every painful, humiliating moment that befalls the House of Bush. I’m actually hoping Bush hangs in now after NH–he hates Rubio enough to do it, and anything that complicates Rubio’s rise is a good thing.
catclub
@bin Lurkin’: name? links?
OTOH: Anti-Clintonites were winners in 2008, will they now be pro-Clinton and be winners in 2016?
trollhattan
@Kropadope:
Which reminds me, the narcissus are beginning to bloom around the neighborhood. No groundhog, however.
Felonius Monk
@Gin & Tonic:
I’m convinced he only posts pictures of Steve and the pups when he needs to reinvigorate the Mustard Fund.
Germy
When I found out Cruz won, my reaction was similar to this Downton Abbey clip:
http://www.vulture.com/2016/01/downton-abbey-recap-there-will-be-blood.html
bin Lurkin'
In my mind the biggest difference between Sanders and Obama is that if Sanders gets elected he won’t immediately fold his people organization and tell them the show’s over and he’s got it now.
I’d think with all the military stratgerists there are here someone would have pointed out by now the advantages of a simultaneous political pincer movement from above and below. Pressure and rhetoric from the bully pulpit combined with organizing and pressure from below.
I don’t pretend to believe that economic equality will eliminate bigotry, homophobia, transphobia, racism and so on but somehow I don’t think it’s going to hurt and might just help.
FlipYrWhig
@bin Lurkin’:
Maybe there aren’t that many different ways to say “I think your candidate sucks and his|her ideas are stupid.”
FlipYrWhig
@bin Lurkin’: And the un-folded Sanders people organization will do… what exactly?
D58826
With all due respect to the ‘primaries ain’t the general’ warnings HRC has to be able to widen her appeal a bit. Maybe Bernie does appeal to the future (odd for a guy 74 years old but) and HRC seems trapped in the past (i.e. 1990’s) but if the progressives/millennials/Bernie fans stay home in November the GOP will win. Maybe HRC represents the 1990’s but the GOP represents the 1890’s. I think it was on VOX the other day comparing election turn out in 2008/2010/2012/2014. If the D’s had turned out in 2010/2014 like they did in 2008/2012, then Nancy would still be speaker, Harry Majority leader and many of the worst GOP governors would be private citizens.
Lets not let the desire for the perfect candidate undermine a perfectly acceptable one. If the GOP wants to go down the rabbit hole of Rino hunting there is no need for the D’s to start looking for Dino’s.
catclub
@Felonius Monk:
At least, we think so. But do we really know?
Steeplejack (phone)
@Sherparick:
From that article:
WTF? How does one conclude that the guy who finished third is the real threat?
VFX Lurker
@Just Some Fuckhead:
From my perspective, Hillary’s campaign is not taking any vote for granted. Hillary privately met with fifty black ministers last week. On a smaller scale, she was “the only candidate that reached out to discuss issues affecting members of the IATSE,” thus winning IATSE’s endorsement last month.
She’s working hard to connect with other leaders and their voters.
shortstop
@catclub: The devil we know…?
That’s enough out of atheist me. I’m not as funny as I wish I were.
dogwood
@Kropadope:
I hope he doesn’t air the “America” ad in SC.
OzarkHillbilly
@catclub: If you want, you can check it out and get back to us. ;-)
catclub
@Chyron HR:
Relevant!
shortstop
@Steeplejack (phone): For the same reason that “Clinton beat Obama in (for example) the New York primary; therefore Obama would lose New York in the general” made no sense. The comment you quoted isn’t about who’s going to win the Republican nomination; it’s about who would be the biggest threat to the Dems if he did.
ETA: Just saw Richard’s post below, where he elaborates on the same point.
dedc79
@Betty Cracker: I think most of the front pagers, even the ones with strong allegiances, have been very civil. Can’t say the same about some of the commenters. And even as someone who is leaning Hillary, I feel like at BJ, it’s the Hillary supporters who have been far more prone to dismiss or attribute bad motives to Sanders and his supporters than the reverse. I’ve seen the exact opposite at other forums, so there doesn’t seem much point in generalizing about Hillary supporters or Sanders supporters overall.
And, in the end, internal discussion/argument isn’t a bad thing as long as no bridges are burned.
Kropadope
@Steeplejack (phone):
Well, after his strongest-among-establishment-candidates performance last night, he’s gonna have the RNC serious money crowd lining up behind him. If Rubio manages to get the nomination, he’s certainly way more appealing for the general election than Cruz. I know that bar is set somewhere down near the core of the earth, but still…
John D.
@bin Lurkin’: You know, in 2008 I was anti-Clinton post-Super Tuesday. In 2016 I’m trending anti-Sanders post-Iowa.
Both for the same reason — their fucking supporters.
The contempt issuing from the 2008 raft of Clinton supporters for “the fortunate black man” and those of us who were thinking about voting for him was a massive turnoff. I’m getting a similar sensation from Sanders’ supporters this go around. The “You’d be standing with us if you weren’t a fucking idiot” undertone to their every pronouncement is really starting to grate.
I’m pulling the lever for whoever has a (D) after their name in November. I’m happy with either candidate in the general. But right now, I want every fucking Sanders supporter in my various social media to just shut up or crack a civics textbook. I’m really tired of having to think “Um, government doesn’t work that way.” dozens of times a day.
Cacti
@FlipYrWhig:
Was wondering the same.
BS has about zero history of party building during 25-years in Washington.
catclub
@Steeplejack (phone): I think no matter who the GOP candidate is, it will take a total effort still to win. Kind of the LBJ philosophy that you make sure to do everything in your power to push your side.
pamelabrown53
@Betty Cracker:
What a killer comment, Betty! However there is no guarantee that the zombie doesn’t run strong in the Bush dynasty.
As far as the democrats, I’d be more of a fence-sitter who leans Hillary than just a leans Hillary if I had any indication that Bernie had the chops and wherewithal ($) to fight against the repubs. if he’s our nominee.
Bernie supporters in Iowa: you did a great job.
Betty Cracker
@Steeplejack (phone): Because he’s relatively young and handsome in the way that sends tingles up the withered flanks of Beltway pundits, who hate that old bag Hillary Clinton, I guess. I do wonder about how someone with Rubio’s retro Cold War-neocon worldview and hard right fundamentalist domestic agenda is supposed to excite the youngs…
gene108
@Grumpy Code Monkey:
The President sets an agenda for the nation. Conservatives have spent millions, maybe even billions, of dollars to reset the agenda in their favor from what President Obama would define it to be.
There’s a lot of power in the Presidency, which cannot come from just controlling Congress.
For example, from 2007-2009, the Democrats controlled Congress, but Bush, Jr. still got what he wanted with regards to Iraq funding.
bin Lurkin'
Hillary Clinton, naive young woman from flyover country, was tricked by the vast, cool intellect and legendary rhetorical legerdemain of C+ Augustus into voting for and urging others to vote for arguably the worst foreign policy disaster in American history.
That’s the charitable interpretation, remember a majority of elected Democrats in Congress voted against the IWR, what did they know that the wife of a former President didn’t?
D58826
@Lord Baldrick:
different-church-lady
@Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class:
Cruz would.
Kropadope
@John D.:
Oh, my Zod, that’s terrible. Can you please point me to one such post? I’m having trouble finding it between all the posts by Clinton supporters explicitly calling Sanders supporters idiots, naifs, unrealistic purity ponies, et cetera, et cetera…
Matt McIrvin
@Steeplejack (phone): Delegate-wise, Rubio actually tied with Trump for second, and he greatly outperformed expectations, which is everything in these stories. The idea is that outperforming expectations creates “momentum”. I’ve never been sure if momentum actually exists, but Rubio did have a late surge in the Iowa polls that evidently carried through.
Rubio is still also the Republican who does best in hypothetical general-election polling against Hillary Clinton.
shortstop
@Kropadope: Tweety actually made a prescient point last night. After the third baseman revived me with cold water and a firm but loving shake, I reflected on the fact that, right now, at least, Rubio seems to be something of a white screen reflecting the beliefs people want to project onto him.
That will change, of course, when he starts getting more attention and has to defend his positions minus his long, memorized scripts. But even forced to take a less nebulous shape, he’s never going to have the sharply defined, loaded-with-negatives personae of Trump and Cruz. He would lose in the general, but it’d be a harder slog than it would be with Cruz or Trump.
shortstop
@catclub: Yes. 45-47 percent of voters will back the Republican candidate no matter what.
Kropadope
@D58826:
I think what we should learn from this is that they’re going to run the same playbook no matter who the candidate is, so we shouldn’t worry about they’re going to do and instead just vote for the candidate we perceive to be the most effective and with the best judgment. For me, that’s Bernie Sanders, but YMMV.
Matt McIrvin
@Betty Cracker: I’ve definitely seen some stories about Rubio rallies full of retirees who gush about Rubio’s youth appeal, and speculate that maybe he could teach the youngsters a thing or two about work ethic on the side. He’s grandpa’s idea of a man who ought to appeal to the young people.
It’s funny that the guy who actually appeals to the young people looks like grandpa.
Just Some Fuckhead
@John D.:
Trust me, the contempt is mutual. Every one of you hot house flowers wilting at some random online comment make it pretty clear why Democrats are at a disadvantage every election. You are whiners and weaklings.
Randy P
@MattF: Read that in the dead-tree edition. I’ve never been much of a bird person but it gave me a new appreciation for all the species mentioned in the article.
Heliopause
Rubio finished with about the same percentage as Romney did in both 2008 and 2012. This will give GOPCentral the hope that the smarmy little prick can win. I guess that’s conceivable if every establishment vote coalesces around him and Trump and Cruz continue splitting the psychotic vote.
bin Lurkin'
I think of this like political tectonic plates, the plates move and every now and then the interface slips and you have an earthquake. The longer between slips the more violent the earthquake since more pressure has built.
I’m not the best at smooth political rhetoric as should be glaringly evident to all by now, I think were are past the point though where smooth political rhetoric can completely camouflage the stress in the political fault lines.
Kropadope
@shortstop:
I don’t expect “run-of-the-mill Republican” to play that poorly in the media. I don’t understand why exactly, but there you have it.
Speaking of long scripts, did you see Ted Cruz’s speech last night? Good lord, he was talking forever and a day before they cut to Hillary. Hillary then finished her entire speech and Ted was still going as long as I could tolerate it.
D58826
@Kropadope: True but ‘socialism’ is to use a baseball term such a hanging curve. Let’s not make it any easier for them than we have to.
Cacti
@Just Some Fuckhead:
Waving a “Feel the Bern” sign around doesn’t actually make you a revolutionary, tough guy. ;-)
Roger Moore
@Just Some Fuckhead, Tone Police:
Bernie started out way down to Clinton everywhere because she had good name recognition. Once his name got out there, she lost that advantage, and he rose to about the level you can expect him to rise to. But Iowa is demographically a good state for Bernie because he’s much stronger with whites than he is with minorities. If he wants to win the nomination, he’ll need to pile up delegates in the whitest states like Iowa, because he’s going to do very poorly in minority (and delegate) heavy states like New York, Illinois, and California.
CONGRATULATIONS!
@Betty Cracker: Trump’s business interests require a functional and relatively prosperous middle class to make him money.
Cruz…all he needs are some banksters to pay his wife’s salary and he’s good.
Trump any day.
SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel
@raven:
@OzarkHillbilly:
@Betty Cracker:
I think there’s a big difference between having a healthy ego, which nearly all politicians do, and being a true narcissist. This is from the Mayo Clinic’s page on the disorder. As awful as many of the GOP candidates are, there’s really only one for whom virtually every one of these points is the case (and conversely, I can’t tick any of these for, say, Obama):
Gin & Tonic
@bin Lurkin’:
That’s a phrase I generally see used by people whose understanding of US history doesn’t extend to before the Clinton administration.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Cacti: I’m not waving a “Feel the Bern” sign around, douchebag. What gave you that wrong impression?
Paul in KY
@schrodinger’s cat: My cat’s position on catnip in generally splayed out in it.
Joel
There is no fucking way I’m going to dance on the Bush’s grave. When the zombies pop out of that fucker there’s no way I want to be around.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Roger Moore: So what makes Iowa a Bernie state is the casual racism of Balloon Juice denizens. Got it.
Cacti
@Just Some Fuckhead:
Your online tough guy bravado, bro. ;-)
Sanders “revolutionaries” sure talk a good game.
Paul in KY
@Archon: Is Number 3 ‘steal underwear’?
Alex.S
@bin Lurkin’:
That didn’t happen. Obama worked hard to set up OFA and keep it active. Post-2012 it was reformed into a specific political pressure group to help advance his agenda.
It’s kind of insulting to Obama and his supporters to make this argument.
Joel
As for the primary name-calling, it’s all nonsense. Someone should dig back to 2008 for some vintage posts and/or comments so that we can all have a hearty laugh about it.
Paul in KY
@Germy: The checks cleared…
petesh
@OzarkHillbilly:
Great point! We would have here a natural experiment, and I fear that super-master-genius Donald might not be happy with the results; he’d just insist that he woulda done super-more-betterer.
different-church-lady
@bin Lurkin’:
So maybe drop the attempt at it and go for tempered statements based on honest intent instead?
catclub
@Kropadope: I also think that getting 23-24% in Iowa was above expectations for him, which is the key measure.
Joel
@bin Lurkin’: Yep, that didn’t happen.
What *did* happen is the other side got very organized against a specific item on Obama’s agenda. And they were very effective at mobilizing voters in the midterms. No amount of OFA activity was going to curb it, although some better media messaging *may* have helped. At the end of the day, you have to realize what we’re up against. The other guys are playing to win, too.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Cacti: Only a few days ago, you accused me of being a hipster. Now I’m a tough guy. Maybe stereotyping isn’t your thing?
Bobby Thomson
@bin Lurkin’: whatevs, dude. See you in Nevada.
OzarkHillbilly
@SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel: Just like with autism being on a spectrum, I see varying degrees of all those in each candidate (probably the lowest in Bernie) and Christie, Cruz, and Trump all max out.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
nonsense, he’s all deluded good intentions, drunk on the cheers and chants of college students and people who think Balloon Juice represents the right wing of US politics
Gimlet
Surely someone recorded a Sanders “yell” at the post-caucus celebration celebration last night that can be used by the networks to disqualify him.
Kropadope
@D58826:
Well, politics isn’t baseball and since we know their most likely play, we should probably use that to our advantage.
Betty Cracker
@Roger Moore: It seems to be an article of faith around here that Sanders can’t do well with minorities. I don’t buy it. My admittedly white-lady speculation is that minorities, having more at stake when we’re on the nasty business end of a Republican administration, tend to be more cautious about long shots because they have a unique understanding of just how high the stakes are and are more risk-averse. If Sanders builds momentum and proves he can win, possibly they’ll give him more of a hearing.
dogwood
@Roger Moore
I don’t think Bernie’s appeal in Iowa has anything to do with the fact that the voters are white. If their choice had been between Sanders and Obama, I doubt it would have even been close.
Bobby Thomson
@Kropadope: I bet he’ll win Vermont and Massachusetts, too. That’ll out him well ahead of O’Malley.
Paul in KY
@bin Lurkin’: That they wouldn’t be running for President in the near future & that she would.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@OzarkHillbilly: the man who thinks his mere presence in politics is going to create a social-democratic revolution in ten months is the least narcissistic in the field?
Kropadope
@Joel:
There’s not much you can do in the face of 24/7 ISIS EBOLA ISIS OBAMASAFAILURE ANDDIDIMENTIONEBOLA.
dedc79
Cacti is Exhibit A in how not to have a productive and respectful discussion about the Dem candidates.
Broad generalizations (check). Assuming bad/evil motives of those who disagree (check). Insults rather than engages (check). And so on…
If memory serves, I could probably just leave the “…about the Dem candidates” part out and it would still be true.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Gimlet:
He did have one weird yell.
Paul in KY
@CONGRATULATIONS!: Hadn’t thought of that. Problem (IMO) would be if won & then all that POWER went to his head & he started going Mussolini on us.
Cacti
@Just Some Fuckhead:
With each keystroke, you strike a blow against the oligarchy, comrade.
Hasta la victoria, siempre! Viva la revolucion!
dedc79
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: His mere presence has changed the conversation already – he’s certainly getting a lot more attention than he was as a Senator. And it’s not like he hasn’t put in his time.
Again, I’m leaning Hillary, but I’m glad Sanders is around, pushing his issues.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@John D.:
AMEN to all that. If there’s one thing that’s been exposed thanks to twitter, it’s the deeply uninformed nature of supporters of candidates on both sides of the ledger. I have already been in countless back and forths with Sanders supporters who paid no attention to what and how the ACA was passed, along with other progressive laws, who hang on to all the canards about Obama’s secret deals with big Pharma, how he’s been such a disappointment because he didn’t “fight hard”, that he had a Dem majority and wasted such an amazing opportunity to be like FDR etc. etc. The Bernie supporters push me further and further towards Hillary, and I can’t even believe I’m saying that, because all the bros who weren’t paying attention then, now all have bropinions.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: also, this. Sanders is running as the underpants gnome.
Bobby Thomson
@Archon: step 3 is “convert Clinton voters by telling them they are corporatist shills and need to join a revolution. Also, too, post-game trash talk is very attractive. I am not a crackpot.”
BL
@dogwood:
This site on NBC News provides a breakdown of the demographics of the Iowa voters. It shows a substantial difference in preference based on race.
Paul in KY
@Betty Cracker: I’m sure that almost every Black person who votes in general would vote for Bernie over Trump or Darth Creepo or whomever. The problem seems to be that right now, barring his being a not-Republican, he doesn’t seem to be good at getting them excited about his candidacy.
Black commenters here, please chime in & correct me, if necessary.
BL
Trying again to leave link
It shows in comment box but didn’t show in comment.
shortstop
@Matt McIrvin: Rubio, sexy 40-something cubano who will leave youngs and Latinos swooning in his wake!
Brought to you by the same people who thought Sarah Palin would peel millions of female votes away from Obama.
BL
So having trouble getting comment to show link (using the link button in the comment box).
For those who want to look at the demographics of the Iowa voters, NBC News has a very detailed breakout.
add
politics/2016-election/primaries/IA
to www dot nbcnews dot com /
I found it very interesting.
Alex.S
@Betty Cracker: The weird assumption a lot of white Democrats like to make is that minority groups that vote for the Democratic party are just as liberal as they are.
They’re not — they tend to be more conservative than white Democratic voters. This is because they partially became Democrats because the Republican party strongly rejects minorities.
They’re probably going to give Sanders more of a hearing — but he hasn’t tuned his message to minorities in a better way than Hillary has and his basic argument will be on the left edge of the Democratic party.
D58826
@Kropadope: If Bernie is the nominee I will have no problem voting for him. I just remember President ‘I will give each citizen a 1000.00 check’ McGovern and President ‘I will raise your taxes’ Mondale and how well all of that turned out. I just think a self proclaimed socialist who has already promised to raise taxes on the middle class is just a bridge to far for enough voters that 2016 could be a repeat of 1972/1984.
schrodinger's cat
@Germy: Never trusting a kitteh, is a good policy. They are diabolic and get away with it on the basis of their looks.
MattF
@Betty Cracker: You’re suggesting there’s a group of voters who are behaving rationally.
Darkrose
@schrodinger’s cat: Cats are evil and bad and wrong. But they’re also damned cute, the little furry monsters.
/cats at the foot of the bed snore
See? Who’s a good kitteh? You are!
OzarkHillbilly
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Heh. You have a point there. But I was looking at the whole list that SD posted and on a # of them, I feel he scores on the lower side. Namely, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12. YMMV and these are just impressions from someone who has not yet paid a whole lot of attention to him. My opinion will change.
John D.
@Kropadope: No, I can’t, as it’s on my social media, as I said, and I don’t give public access to that. Sorry.
You’ll note that I said nothing of Clinton’s supporters, good or bad. Clinton and her supporters have nothing to do with the point I was making about why I am trending anti-Sanders, so I didn’t discuss them. I’m not a supporter of either candidate in the primary. I donate neither money nor time. So this is not a Clinton supporter calling you naive. This is just me doing so, if you think for a second that Bernie Sanders can re-enact Glass-Steagal more effectively from the Presidency than from the Senate.
If you don’t want to be considered politically naive, demonstrate a passing familiarity with how government works. Or elections for that matter. Iowa was not a “tie”. Iowa was a loss for Sanders.
Clinton has 362 superdelegates already in her camp, Sanders has 8. Clinton gained 22 more delegates last night, to Sanders’ 21. She will likely gain another when the last precinct reports, and then the 4 remaining uncommitted IA superdelegates at the national convention (she has 3 DNC members and IA Rep Dave Loebsack in her camp already) . Sanders has to win, and win big, in the most liberal Democratic strongholds. He will win NH handily (where he is up 15), and his supporters will claim momentum, and then he will get destroyed in NV, where Clinton is up 20, and then he will get destroyed in SC, where Clinton is up 30. Sure, I could be wrong, but there has been no indication *at all* that any of what I just said is even slightly likely to be incorrect.
Sanders needs to not eke out small victories. He needs to win and win big. That’s the math. The superdelegates mean he is starting in a massive hole, and he need to overcome that. Losing ground in Iowa is not the way to do that.
Eric
The Bush clan is prepping a 4th Generation shitheel to foist on us as we speak. Lil Prescott will be upon us sooner than we imagine. ¿Jeb? is not the final word from these criminals, unfortunately.
Cacti
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
In the late night threads, two of our African American posters were talking about how problematic Cornel West’s personal attacks on Obama were going to be for Bernie among black voters. Only to have it repeatedly brosplained to them why that isn’t the case.
It was painful.
dogwood
@BL:
That wasn’t my point. Minorities were 9% of voters, and they favored Clinton. The other 91% were white and pretty evenly split. That might say something about minority voters in Iowa, but it doesn’t suggest that either Bernie or Hillary had any specific advantage with white voters in Iowa.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Paul in KY:
The country doesn’t know Sanders. This includes people of color. The country knows Clinton. This includes people of color. Don’t get caught up in the race bullshit being peddled by the Balloon Juice trolls. Obama was in the same place this time in 2008. The country didn’t know him. This included people of color. Obama surrogates did some pretty nasty shit to the Clintons to peel off her African-American support. The Sanders campaign won’t do that. They’ll have (relatively) high profile surrogates making the positive case for him. It may or may not work.
Kropadope
@John D.:
That’s the thing, though. You’re spreading conventional wisdom narratives that are just false. I’m under no illusions that Sanders will have an easy time pushing his agenda through Congress, but neither will Hillary. And, frankly, I think Sanders has done a better job with his time in elected office moving the ball in small ways, which is an important skill for a President who can expect to have a hostile Congress for at least four years.
gene108
@bin Lurkin’:
To be fair to Congress, Bush, Jr. did not say DECLARE WAR ON IRAQ! EDIT: I WILL INVADE TOMORROW!!!
He said, if he was given a big stick – the authorization to use force, as he saw fit – he would get Saddam to let inspectors back in. Nowhere did he state his primary goal was to invade Iraq and execute regime change.
Bush, Jr.’s dick waving actually worked.
In October 2002, Saddam let inspectors back in.
If the Neo-cons left it at that they’d have had a big policy win. Unfortunately they did not and decided to invade, even though their stated policy objective had been achieved.
I personally did not support the vote for use of force, but that is because I loathed Bush & Co as vile scumbags, but of course many people did not share my opinion and my opinion was temporarily put on hold between October 2002 and March 2003, when the inspectors were doing their jobs.
So in short, I do not hold Congress in contempt, as much as I hold Bush, Jr. liable for lying to Congress.
But of course liberals will never let the Clintons live down anything and will never give them credit for anything positive they achieve.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Cacti:
My twitter TL of President Obama supporters started out being neutral about Sanders/Clinton, with no real preference, like I… was, until the Sanders supporters started white mansplainin’ everything. It’s gamergate all over again. My white women friends who are Bernfeelers are just the same way – no idea what it takes to govern. I have run out of ways to explain that our Constitution provides a bulwark against two undesirable outcomes – dictatorships and revolutions, and that PBO received zero support from Republicans on anything, yet look what he managed to accomplish by his alliance with the Democrats. Because you know, he’s a Democrat. Maybe it’s because I’m an old, but I hate the word revolution. I’ve read a lot of history, and I’ve lived long enough to know that anyone who talks about a revolution doesn’t think that they’re going to get hurt.
gwangung
@Just Some Fuckhead: I think you speak as an outsider to the communities of color; there are a couple statements that aren’t really knowledgeable.
Calouste
@BL: Doing some quick math on those numbers, Clinton actually won the vote (but not the delegates) by a fairly comfortable margin of 49-45.
Just Some Fuckhead
@gwangung: If you have an argument to make, gwangung, make it. I’m not a mind reader like Cacti. If you’d like to also include your credentials that allow you to speak for all communities of color, and decide who else cannot, that would be useful too.
Kropadope
@Cacti: Oh, man, look at this Clinton-bro brosplaining how Cornel West will single-handedly bring down the Sanders campaign because everyone pays attention to and takes heed of the advice of Cornel Fucking West. Watch him brosplain all over the rest of the thread how Sanders supporters are all assholes who put down everyone who disagrees with them and just generally be a white male asshole.
Cacti
@Kropadope:
One wonders how many black Democrats can tell you that Cornel West will be a problem for Bernie before you start to believe them.
John D.
@Kropadope: SIGH.
Please explain how the “conventional wisdom narratives … are just false”.
Presidents. Do. Not. Make. Laws. Bernie’s *current* job does. If he thinks reinstating Glass-Steagal is the most important thing to do, he is better situated right now to make that happen.
If you are referring to my last sentence in that quote, I explained — in fairly decent detail — the math behind why Iowa is a loss for Sanders. This is not hard.
On the morning of 2/1/2016, Clinton had 362 delegates pledged to her, Sanders had 8. Clinton led by 354 delegates.
On the morning of 2/2/2016, Clinton had 384 delegates pledged to her, Sanders had 29. Clinton led by 355 delegates.
That is a net loss for Sanders of 1 delegate. It’s also a removal of 43 delegates from the pool that he has to pull them from.
Not a tie. A loss. There is no “conventional wisdom” involved at all, just math.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Kropadope: Why did St Bernard the Never Negative ask West to campaign with him?
gwangung
@Just Some Fuckhead: You first. You made the claim. For starters, please explain Cornel West.
Bobby Thomson
@John D.: correct. Speaking of 2008, I’m reminded of how many people couldn’t seem to count delegates back then. If anything, it seems even worse now. Chuck Todd and Nate Silver made their bones back then focusing on numbers and now they’re chasing CW and clicks.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Kropadope:
Cacti is explaining that if one wants to understand what an actual AA person thinks the significance of using Cornel West to rep for Bernie in non-white primaries, one should listen to what they have to say. Cacti is not the bro you’re looking for.
Kropadope
@John D.: The false conventional wisdom narrative is that Bernie Sanders supporters don’t understand the role of Congress in the lawmaking process. I pointed out, in the very comment you are responding to, that both Clinton and Sanders will need to work with Congress and both will have a tough time. I think Bernie is better equipped to handle that.
You ignored my argument completely and continued arguing against strawman Bernie supporter who thinks the President can do whatever he wants” AKA no one.
And I never said Bernie won the caucuses. He lost, albeit very narrowly. He’s behind by two elected delegates, that’s not a lot.
Mnemosyne
@VFX Lurker:
It’s not really a surprise that Hillary and Bernie would run neck-and-neck in majority white Iowa. However, the Democratic Party is very close to being a majority minority party at this point (if we’re not already there), so any candidate who doesn’t actively court the African-American, Latino, and Asian-American vote is going to be dead in the water.
In both 2008 and 2012, a majority of white voters cast their ballots for the Republican. Hopefully Bernie’s outreach to the rest of the Democratic Party is stronger than his online supporters would indicate.
ruemara
@bin Lurkin’: That. Never. Happened. As a working member of OFA during the healthcare fight, the fucking polar opposite happened and I was fighting the same demographic of now Bernie fans who wanted to kill the bill while hauling my ass out to county fairs and farmer’s market to explain the bill to people. Jesus, can you guys get rid of the zombie lies for once?
schrodinger's cat
@Just Some Fuckhead: So to know Bernie is to love him? Well, I have followed him on immigration related issues since Dubya’s attempt at comprehensive immigration reform went up in flames. Based on this issue alone I am not ready to worship at the Shrine of St. Bedhead Bernard as the great savior of all that is liberal and good.
Kropadope
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: He’s had West up for a couple speeches. Cornel West isn’t exactly the centerpiece of the Sanders campaign.
Why do people who don’t support Sanders want to make everything about Sanders’s supporters and his age and the socialist label and about everything except actual issues facing the U.S. government?
dogwood
@Kropadope:
You’re right. Cornell West isn’t going to single-handedly doom Bernie’s campaign, but he’s not helpful either. Maybe West costs him some votes, but he certainly wouldn’t lose any votes by dropping him. That would make me more trusting of Bernie’s political instincts, which will be important if he wins the nomination.
Just Some Fuckhead
@gwangung: I never mentioned Cornel West. I don’t follow him and I don’t feel like he’s my obligation to defend.
Gwangung, you are failing at this whole argument thing again. This is a recurring issue for you.
Kropadope
@ruemara:
What Bernie supporters were fighting to kill the bill? Not me. Certainly not Bernie himself.
Amir Khalid
@Kropadope:
You seem to be trying very hard to prove this about yourself.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Kropadope: I think the use of West as a surrogate indicates really bad judgment and someone who lives in an ideological bubble> that’s not a good sign for someone whose entire campaign is based on a complete rewriting of American politics in twelves months. YMMV.
As to issues, also central to the Sanders fantasy is if we just explain that those tax hikes will promote the greater good and even save tax-payers money in the long run, they will vote to pay more taxes. Again, unhealthy ideological bubble.
Kropadope
@Amir Khalid: No, I choose very specific people who are certainly being assholes. I don’t get in a fight with everyone who disagrees with me on things, but I will certainly people who are misrepresenting my arguments.
Mnemosyne
@Kropadope:
You realize that ruemara is talking about the (current) Bernie supporters she knows IRL and not you, right? You may want to dial it back a little when people try to tell you about things they’ve personally experienced offline.
sparrow
@Roger Moore: Actually, California is one of Bernie’s better states. Last time I checked, 538 had him at a ~40% chance of winning.
OzarkHillbilly
@Kropadope: Ruemara is talking about all the Public! Option! trolls who were actively speaking against the ACA, so many of whom are now diehard Bernie supporters.
Just Some Fuckhead
@schrodinger’s cat:
I think you betray your argument before you make it based on your choice of language here. Suffice it to say that I don’t love Sanders. I think his message that the system is rigged will resonate with many people because we all know it is based on the last 30 years of the rich getting richer and the rest of us getting further behind. Whether or not that message will resonate with voters who have known the system is rigged way, way longer than 30 years remains to be seen.
Kropadope
@Mnemosyne:
Let’s review the record.
A demographic isn’t “people you know IRL” and what makes her so certain that these purity ponies who wanted to kill the bill are current Sanders supporters. Sanders supported the bill, supposedly even helped craft some of it. Isn’t Sanders a huge traitor to the emoprog demographic that ruemara described?
Mnemosyne
@Kropadope:
Also, to extend what ruemara is talking about: there is a pretty common group of liberals here in the Golden State that I will call NIMBY Liberals. They shop at Whole Foods, they adopt a vegan diet, and they like having a diverse group of friends as long as those diverse friends don’t start to think they’re actually equals.
And god help you if the state needs a little of their tax money to do anything that might benefit poor people — “Not In My Back Yard!” They like the idea of helping poor people, as long as their little Noah and Sophia don’t actually have to encounter any.
A lot of people I already knew as NIMBY Liberals IRL are now Bernie enthusiasts. Hence my skepticism.
dogwood
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Bernie has said that he believed black people voted for Obama because he was black. That’s pretty much a right-wing meme. Bernie’s no right-winger, but perhaps when it comes to AAs, his views are fairly unsophisticated.
Kropadope
@OzarkHillbilly: All I asked was “who?” If such people exist, there should be examples. I would like at least a couple, please.
ETA: And unless there’s reason to believe this demographic is a statistically significant group of Bernie supporters, a poll for example, I think we can safely assume that the baseline Sanders supporter supports the ACA.
Paul in KY
@Just Some Fuckhead: Having Dr. Cornel West as your ‘black outreach’ person seems to be a tad tone-deaf, IMO.
Mnemosyne
@Kropadope:
So none of the people you know IRL fit into any demographic? They’re all special snowflakes who are completely unique and can’t be labeled?
Paul in KY
@gene108: Anybody with any sense knew they were itchin & scheming & planning & hopin & cheatin to invade Iraq.
I knew it (check out my posts at Steve Gilliard’s old blog & Salon/Greenwald), all under my handle ‘Paul in KY’. If I knew it, why didn’t they?!
My take: They were weenies who wanted to get on the ‘popular’ side of a ‘military’ issue & casualties in a war-that-ever-should-have-been be damned.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Paul in KY: Your concern has been noted.
LanceThruster
How will allegations of Clinton cheating be covered here?
http://usuncut.com/politics/busted-iowa-precinct-captain-revealed-as-paid-out-of-state-staffer-for-clinton-campaign/
ruemara
Jesus. Minorities can hear Sanders! We’ve heard! And what we’ve heard on average is “you need jobs to solve racism” and it’s not going over well. Its so goddamn depressing that the presumption is that minorities don’t listen. Ignorance is not the problem. We hear, we say “how, because we watched Obama, what will you do different and if you want our vote, why are you going after Trump voters”? We hear his campaign detail a strategy to bring disaffected whites back to his voting block to circumvent the need for strong minority support and it doesn’t go over well. Toss in the tone deaf, slow responses from the campaign on issues of social &reproductive justice, his vote for the crime bill, and relative lack of strong legislative success as a senator, plus Cornell fucking West and yeah, you don’t get much of the Obama coalition. Make no mistake, we vote for our lives while some seem to vote like it’s for a new boyfriend. We’ll show up, even though Bernie’s promises seem pretty empty since he has no down ticket plans. All we want is to at least hold on to social gains then. But it’s not that we haven’t heard Bernie. It’s that fucking minorities are goddamn disappointed with Democrats, hate Republicans and have found that liberals find our agency in making up our minds about their myth made real is irritating. We’re fine to have around, as long as we shut up nut do what our betters think is right. It’s not everyone, some people get it, but far too many can’t even address that we can think that a promise with no way to deliver is nothing and we’re not voting for a best friend, we just want a viable candidate that has some level of savvy to get even a quarter of the progress Obama did with this nut rich Congress.
schrodinger's cat
@Just Some Fuckhead:
I agree with Bernie on this, but I don’t think his plans to address this issue are viable.
Implicit in this argument is that when people find out about Bernie they will like him. I just pointed out that in my case at least it was not true.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@LanceThruster: with all the consideration the evidence deserves
Mnemosyne
@Kropadope:
And you are going to give us all links to your personal Facebook feed and real name when, exactly?
You’re demanding that other people give up their anonymity to satisfy your curiousity even though they could potentially lose their jobs and/or friends to satisfy you.
John D.
@Kropadope: The last FIVE YEARS have shown us that there is no “working with Congress”. Obama tried, repeatedly, and the smarmy fucker that won Iowa’s Republican primary last night shut the government down in response.
Warning, long bricktext incoming. This is Sanders signature issue from his site.
How? Every bit of that is legislative. Explain how he accomplishes this short of Green Lanterning it into existence.
Again, how? Also purely legislative.
NAFTA, CAFTA, and PNTR are actual laws. Congress would need to pass legislation to eliminate of supersede them.
Jesus Christ. The Paycheck Fairness Act is currently in the Senate. It cannot be signed into law.
I love the jobs program idea. Where is the $5.5 billion coming from?
More Green Laterning. How is this to be accomplished and funded?
The cap is part of the US Code, and therefore requires legislation to remove.
I agree fully. Once again, requires legislation from a body that is currently trying over and over and over and over to rip out even tiny strides in that direction.
Both of these require legislation and funding.
This is the FIRST time he’s put something out that he can DO. He can fight for the EFCA. That is within the power of the President. Also a goal I support wholeheartedly.
His signature issue, and a good one, and worded in such a way that he can accomplish it by speechifying on the subject.
2 out of 13 points in his signature issue are things he can do.
None of them have a concrete plan to do them. “Work with Congress” is semantically null. The only way any of this passes Congress is if the House and Senate are under Democratic control. Short of a meteor, the House is not flipping this cycle. So, what is Sanders’ plan to help the downticket races and at least get the Senate?
As I said earlier, I will happily vote for Sanders in the general, but taking his healthcare plan as an example (as it is the most fully-fleshed out plan on his site), he plans to pay for it primarily via tax increases. How, exactly, does this pass Congress? The party in control of both houses right now holds the belief that our taxes right now are too damned high. They hold it with the same fervor that religions believe in their deity. So how do you convince the Teahadists to pass a massive tax increase? “Work with Congress” won’t cut it. How do you pass your signature issue when it involves convincing the majority party to ignore THEIR signature issue?
That’s why I believe you are politically naive.
LanceThruster
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
It seems that many of the allegations are on par with the Cruz/Carson shenanigans.
https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/comments/43sq2a/i_was_caucusing_in_ames_district_13_the_organizer/
Just Some Fuckhead
@schrodinger’s cat:
Again, wrong. Some will, some won’t. But it will certainly be more than the support he’d get from people who don’t even know him.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@ruemara:
POC: #Sandra Bland had a college education, a job, and a loving family.
Bernfeelers: Down with Goldman Sachs!
different-church-lady
@ruemara:
QFT, nominated for comment of the year (early running).
Kropadope
@Paul in KY: Cornel West isn’t Bernie’s black outreach person. If anyone is filling that role, it’s Killer Mike, though Bernie has been known to give BLM organizers prime speaking time at campaign events also.
@Mnemosyne: So, I am seeing a couple of the classical examples of false argumentation, they are somewhat intertwined so let me unpack this.
Of course they do, but that’s not the point I was making. That covers the strawman aspect.
What I was saying is that we have no idea whether these people who wanted to kill the bill in 2009/10 currently support Sanders. And even if they do, you can’t extrapolate from a small, unrepresentative sample of people to the millions of people who support Bernie Sanders, that would be the second logical fallacy.
ruemara
@Kropadope: Bernie Sanders was a reluctant supporter as it didn’t go far enough. But he was a reliable vote. There are many of his die hard fans at places like DKOS who felt that it was a bill that should die if we didn’t have single payer. If you have never seen a purity pony on these Internet’s, congratulations, but I had to learn a hell of a lot on Congressional procedures to talk to the local very liberals & the local undecided voters to help them understand how you don’t EO health laws and that the votes in the House & Senate were not there. And it still comes up from Bernie fans now that Obama caved on single payer. Its so tiresome.
Bobby Thomson
@LanceThruster: pointing and laughing until you can identify a rule that was broken.
chopper
@Kropadope:
if bernie was promising incrementalism then his senate history would make him a really great candidate.
OzarkHillbilly
@Kropadope: I don’t want to get sarcastic with you, I really don’t, but now you are just begging for it. So I am going to bow out and leave you with your blinders.
Kropadope
@Mnemosyne:
I did nothing of the sort. If an entire “demographic” is afflicted with this curious problem of hating the ACA, but liking Sanders, there should be someone, somewhere doing that in public. If not, perhaps you could link to another Balloon Juice commenter?
different-church-lady
@John D.: Seems like the Democratic nomination is coming down to a guy who promises grand things he won’t be able to achieve against a woman who promises moderate things she won’t be able to achieve.
chopper
@John D.:
with “political revolution”, all things are possible.
Mnemosyne
@ruemara:
As you yourself have seen, I’m a pretty dopey, sheltered, middle-aged, middle-class white lady. And yet I have managed to figure out that if people different from myself tell me that their experience is different than mine, I need to listen to them.
And at this point, many times I’ll end up saying, “Holy shit, you’re right! I never thought of it that way. I may not totally agree, but now I understand your perspective.”
ruemara
Also Cornell West is stumping with Sanders, he is supposed to be part of the outreach. I had a Bernista send me Nina Turner’s statement on backing Sanders, because black people follow blacks, i guess whatevs. Sanders gets to campaign with a guy who goes by the name Killer Mike, how’s that for some shit. Trust me, the diehard, voting in a larger block for democrats black vote notices. Some like Sanders because they are near Green. I identify as Green, but I like to win. Most are siding with Clinton because, pragmatism. And some do love her, go figure.
Kropadope
@ruemara:
Oh, I have. I was here during the ACA fights, consistently arguing that the ACA was an imperfect bill that nevertheless was a monumental improvement on the status quo and it was very important the bill should pass.
I just find it amazing that all those people who wanted to kill the bill in 2009 proclaimed their intent support Bernie Sanders in 2016, especially since it was about 6 years before he announced he was running.
different-church-lady
@ruemara:
Well, all we have to do is keep shouting at them that nobody loves her and they’ll stop loving her, I recon.
Just Some Fuckhead
@ruemara:
43 percent of nonvoters are Hispanic, African American, or other racial and ethnic minorities.
Mnemosyne
@Kropadope:
No, what you’re saying is that, when ruemara tells you that she personally knows people in real life who wanted to kill the bill and that those same people now support Sanders, you think she’s lying.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@different-church-lady: supreme fuckin court
roberts/alito is the best thing that ever happened to the billionaire class, to borrow a phrase from somebody. I’d like to keep it that way
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@different-church-lady:
This is my Bernfeeler husband’s reason to vote for Bernie. My argument is PBO got zero support from Republicans, and look what he accomplished, because 1. He’s PBO, and 2. He’s a Democrat with support from one of the only two organizational forces that can mobilize votes in Congress. Sanders is more likeable than Ted Cruz, but his success, like Cruz’s, is because he’s deliberately distanced himself from the sausage makers. Gadflies play an important role, but they should never be hired to run a superpower. I see Bernie more as Secretary of the Treasury.
Paul in KY
@Just Some Fuckhead: Thank you, sir.
Kropadope
@Mnemosyne:
What she is doing is trying to link two groups of people together, without providing any evidence or reason to believe these are the same group of people. She’s spreading prejudicial stereotypes and it’s not fair.
schrodinger's cat
Bernie Sanders position on skilled immigration is ridiculous. He wants to get rid of guest worker visas. He wants everyone who wants to work here to have a green card before they come here.
Anyone who has dealt with the INS or USCIS and had the joy of applying for GC either for themselves or their spouse or employee will realize how oblivious these positions are to the ground realities.
I would like to be taller too but just wishing it is not going to make it come true.
different-church-lady
@Kropadope:
Please… please… PLEASE tell me I didn’t just read that….
Paul in KY
@Kropadope: Understand he’s not in the official role (if there is an official role like that). However, given Dr. West’s repeated uncomplimentary remarks about President Obama, it seems to me that if you wanted to make yourself attractive to Black citizens as a voting option, being seen with him is not the way (IMO) to go about it.
Keith G
@Paul in KY:
For more anecdotal data?
@Cacti:
Bring the data. Point us to people, preferably opinion leaders, who can tell us.
FWIW, I have vast understanding that one might be driven to reach for a remote every time West and/or Smiley appear on a screen. What I do not now is what the specific function assigned to West is, how he is carrying it out, and what impact that has on all or part of the intended audience.
Well, I know how you feel about it….
Mnemosyne
@Kropadope:
Oh dear. You seem to be showing signs of Conservative Temporal Disorder, where you have trouble understanding that time has passed between two events.
Let’s try this again: ruemara is saying that the people she knows IRL who wanted to kill the bill are now the most vocal Sanders supporters she knows IRL. That doesn’t mean that they were vocal Sanders supporters in 2009. That means that the same people have been members of both groups at different points in time.
If this is still confusing to you, you may wish to lay down with a cold cloth on your head until the feeling passes.
Paul in KY
@different-church-lady: Good one!!
John D.
@Kropadope: Congratulations.
You are taking someone else’s personal experiences and handwaving them away as “unfair”.
Your ego is astounding.
Mnemosyne
@different-church-lady:
Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?
goblue72
@John D.: What is magical Hillary’s plan to get any of her proposals through Congress? She have some special magic beans that makes her proposals more “realistic”?
Of course she doesn’t. Which makes your remarks just complete false dichotomy bullshit.
Because all either of them has available to them as President faced with a GOP Congress is executive orders and foreign affairs. And I sure as shit would be prefer a President Sanders than Clinton with her itchy trigger finger. She’s gone on record multiple times that her problem with Obama’s foreign policy is that it wasn’t hawkish enough.
Kropadope
@Mnemosyne:
No, that’s not what she said at all. She hasn’t even said it since you started making that argument. These were people she encountered while working for OFA. Generally I don’t consider people I interact with while phonebanking or canvassing as people I know in real life. These were supposed liberals who didn’t support the ACA and she just declared them a demographic and asserted they’re all supporting Bernie, but I don’t really see any reason to believe that. She just made an unfair assumption.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@goblue72: again, Dummy– she’s not promising, and counting on, a “Revolution”. You and “Bernie” are.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@John D.:
Hand waving away is what the Bernfeelers do, to everything – to the rules of lawmaking, the filibuster rules, the need for down ticket campaigning, the need to flip the Senate (made harder with Bernie gone), the experiences of people of color, the frustration about gender inequality, and first and foremost, to all of PBO’s accomplishments. There’s so much hand waving away going on right now, it’s creating its own weather pattern.
Kropadope
@Paul in KY:
Shorter Paul: Black voters are a monolith and no Obama supporters can tolerate someone being critical of Obama.
Kropadope
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
No, the only handwaving I see is from all the Clinton supporters who can’t see that most Bernie’s supporters don’t fit that description at all and that they are perpetuating a false MSM caricature of Sanders because it suits them.
feebog
@John D.:
This. For those not looking beyond New Hampshire, Bernie is looking good. But neither Iowa or New Hampshire are particularly reflective of the Democratic electorate in general. Let’s see how Bernie does in a state where the minority turnout is crucial.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
So you’re a screechy, self-righteous outlier? Reassuring, if true.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Kropadope:
The hand waving thing? That thing you just did to dismiss everything I just said, based on THE EXPERIENCES I HAVE JUST RECOUNTED TO YOU???? Like I said, I’m way way less a Hillary supporter and more fed up to here with Bernie’s supporters. But, feel free to hand wave away that, too.
chopper
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
hey now. clearly, a few sprinkles of fairy dust makes bernie’s ‘single payer and free college paid for by tax hikes on everyone!’ just as realistic as hillary’s ‘incremental change’.
and bernie can totes deliver all that stuff based on his long senate history of…small, incremental change.
John D.
Aaaand, off to the pie filter for Kropadope.
Nate Dawg
@Mnemosyne: seriously. It’s not a hard concept.
Boiling it down: the purists who would have us with no ACA at the moment are the same group supporting Sanders
The purity trolls will cut off their noses to spite their faces. I’m pragmatic, and Sanders would lose in the general. If he were to win, he would be less well positioned than Clinton to get things done.
Will Clinton get free university? No, but neither will Sanders so that is absolutely inconsequential.
schrodinger's cat
@Kropadope: I have brought up a specific issue, Bernie’s restrictionist stance on immigration. You have studiously avoided saying a word about it.
Paul in KY
@Keith G: It’s all anecdotal, Keith! That’s what blogs are for!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: D’OH! apologies to Krodakope- I misread and thought I was responding to GoBlue
Keith G
@John D.: Well that’s gonna leave a mark.
Cacti
@ruemara:
Under the Sanders revolution, Trayvon Martin could have had an even bigger bag of Skittles in his pocket.
Nate Dawg
Watching Hillary on MSNBC go straight to the heart of this argument: we don’t need a revolutionary. We need a practical path to create incremental change, as has always been done in this country.
I wouldn’t be surprised if pragmatism sold well in NH and Sanders love fest their stopped on Election Day
Paul in KY
@Kropadope: As an ‘Obama supporter’, I’ve been critical of him, at times. It’s all in here. However, I think if you put my ‘criticisms’ up alongside Dr. West’s ‘criticisms’, you would see that one’s is definitely more, shall we say, ‘hostile’ than the others.
I will let you surmise who’s is more.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Nate Dawg: I think if people see video of the children chanting “You’re a liar” at the Bernie Bro rally gets some play, it may turn some people off.
schrodinger's cat
@Nate Dawg: Even if we argue for a moment that radical change would be good, how does Sanders plan to bring that about is a mystery to me.
Mnemosyne
@Kropadope:
Let’s take a look at Ruemara’s actual words from the first comment you objected to, #251:
So ruemara was out there talking to people face-to-face during the PPACA fight (hint: you can’t go to a county fair or farmer’s market by phone) and she is telling you about the people she spoke to and what they told her.
What were you doing during the PPACA fight other than commenting on blogs? How many farmers market tables did you sit at passing out literature?
Sorry, but I find stories from someone who did the actual work more believable than the guy who pooh-poohs the very idea of doing the work. Which, not surprisingly, is the exact attitude that turns me off from Sanders’ supporters.
Keith G
@Paul in KY: As long as that is acknowledged and not presented as universal truth.
Paul in KY
@Cacti: Man, that was a burn…
goblue72
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Again, bullshit. Clinton has a platform and is promising certain policy proposals. Somehow, Sanders puts forth policy goals and its a lot of hand waving one how its impossible because Congress. Clinton puts forth policy proposals to enact if elected, and its crickets.
Which, at the end of the day, shows how the anti-Sanders crowd here is just as foam at the mouth as they claim Sanders supporters are.
And if she isn’t promising anything, then WTF is she running for?
You can’t have it both ways, jack.
Kropadope
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: So, the fact that I say that he needs a better Congress to work with and that we need to get voters out to vote such people in at all levels and that the President can’t do things alone and that Obama has been very successful, all counter the Conster’s description, doesn’t register and people keep asserting things like that I believe he can just magically do he wants and, more generally, so do basically all Bernie supporters.
This constant misrepresentation is severely frustrating, so forgive me if I feel like I should defend myself on this.
gene108
@goblue72:
The same way Barack Obama has managed to get a few things passed, since 2011, I’d assume.
Some tweaks here and there, when the Congress needs to negotiate with the President, in order to get budget and appropriation bills signed into law.
Kropadope
@Mnemosyne:
I was volunteering for Deval Patrick’s reelection campaign at the time.
Paul in KY
@Keith G: Let me state once more for the record that everything I type is ‘my opinion’. Nothing more, nothing less.
I am sorry if you thought I was ‘word of Godding’ it back up there somewhere.
Kropadope
@Mnemosyne:
I promise you, none of them told her they intended to vote for Bernie Sanders as, again, it was 6 freaking years before he declared his candidacy.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Kropadope:
I truly don’t understand what the Bernfeelers’ understanding is to be the point of Sanders’ candidacy if not to run against the last 8 years. If you’re going to do that, you need to disparage PBO’s accomplishments, and get all your supporters to agree with you. When you use the Democratic platform to run against a Democratic president who has a 90% favorability rating with Democrats, you’re going to find out some uncomfortable truths about politics, and reality.
Mnemosyne
@Keith G:
Well, you could try reading black media every once in a while. The Root is usually a good place to start.
Paul in KY
@goblue72: Her policy proposals are not as forward leaning as Sen. Sanders. People have recently seen some of this incrementalist stuff being done (by Pres. Obama & Pres. Clinton).
Sen. Sander’s policy scope has probably not been seen (enacted) since Pres. Johnson (IMO).
I sure would like to see Sen. Sander’s legislative dreams become reality.
Keith G
@Mnemosyne: So….Rumera was working farmers market tables talking to people who were supporting Sanders? When?
I want to get the time lines down so I can understand the specific relevance.
Kropadope
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
Well, since I was a vehement supporter of Obama in 08 and recognize Bernie as my least worst option now, I’ll just suggest you truncate your statement, the first four words adequately describe your perspective.
ETA: I would also like to note that while Bernie has some criticisms of Obama, he has said time and time again that he is broadly supportive of the majority of Obama’s agenda. He’s also out there saying that getting his agenda passed won’t be easy, consistent participation is important, electing good people to office is important. It’s funny, it’s like a few people are hard-wired not to recognize any of that.
Mnemosyne
@Kropadope:
Again, let’s look at her actual words and not the words you made up in your head:
I can even diagram it for you, but your temporal disorder will probably still lead you to claim she made an argument the rest of us can clearly see she never did.
Mwangangi
@ruemara: QFMFT!
Co-signed Former California Obama campaign and Former Sonoma County Democratic staffer.
It’s like the Sanders campaign is an inattentive entity at best about Black concerns, then his staffers and mouthpieces clumsily translate that inattentiveness into, at best, indifference; at worst a mild hostility THEN his online ‘street team’ translates that into patronization at best or actual hostility at worst.
Why the fuck would I support that until the only alternative was a Republic in the White House with a Supreme Court where a poor turn in health threatens to forcibly retire any chance at a sane majority?
Keith G
@Mnemosyne: I do visit Black media, but thank you for being very much your passive-aggressive self.
You rock!!
dogwood
@Keith G:
When you work events like farmers’ markets in your own community, it’s likely that you actually know some of the people you interact with. Not a stretch to assume that you might see and interact with many of the same people 6 years later.
Mnemosyne
@Keith G:
Here, let’s give this a try:
2009: Ruemara talks to people who want to “kill the bill” because PPACA is not single payer
2015: Ruemara talks to the same people, who say they support Bernie
Maybe I need to draw a Venn diagram of “People who told Ruemara they wanted to kill PPACA” and “People who told Ruemara they support Bernie.” Even that might be confusing, though, since the overlap between the two seems to be quite large where she is.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Kropadope:
Bernie is better than his supporters, I will acknowledge that. Like I keep saying, his supporters have all gone up my ass sideways. This thread is another data point.
FlipYrWhig
@Kropadope: I would kind of like both candidates to offer up a fallback position that answers what they would do if we presume JUST FOR THE SAKE OF ARGUMENT that Congress is controlled by the other party. The problem is that I don’t think either one would say anything meaningful or worth assessing.
Certainly IF we had a groundswell of liberals and youth and people of color, American politics would be leaps and bounds better than it is now. Bernie Sanders is doing more than I would have expected him to do to show that there are people who want to get excited about that prospect. (With Obama ’08, there was a natural fit: young guy, cool friends, inspiring language; with Bernie ’16, we’ve got an old cranky guy who’s not tied into a lot of political or media networks and who harangues his audience, and yet it somehow it works.) But this is a huge and heavy lift, basically creating a lively and committed counterweight to the evangelicals and nativists on the right.
BUT I don’t like the “corrupt institutions” angle because I think it runs the risk of burying the deal-making and centrist part of the Democratic Party that we also sort of need for a decisive majority, the Schumers and Reids and McCaskills. And I don’t think the reason why the country doesn’t have nice things is that millionaires, billionaires, Wall Street and corporations manipulated impressionable people into disbelieving in them. You don’t have to bribe a racist into acting racist. He kind of likes doing it on his own.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Kropadope:
Oh no you dint! Oh no you dint!
catclub
@Paul in KY:
Me too. But LBJ had huge legislative majorities. Sanders or Clinton will at best have a divided Congress.
Kropadope
@Mnemosyne: Look at the quote you excerpted. The people she met working for OFA weren’t her close personal friends. She can talk to her friends about politics any time.
So let’s examine the two possibilities of how she arrived at that conclusion:
1. She took down detailed notes and contact information for everyone she met through OFA campaign events, then followed up with them six years later about their stance on the primary.
2. She met some anti-ACA people in 2009 she didn’t like and now assumes with no evidence that these people are Bernie supporters.
I don’t know for sure, but #2 certainly looks like the more plausible scenario.
Mnemosyne
@Keith G:
You’re welcome! Love ya!
Kropadope
@Just Some Fuckhead: Umm, yes I did.
Bobby Thomson
@Kropadope: you seem nice.
Joel
@Just Some Fuckhead: let’s keep ’em non voting, amirite?
Mnemosyne
@Kropadope:
So, just to be clear, you worked on the Patrick campaign and then dropped all political involvement? Since then, you have not attended a single other community event, Democratic Party event, community meeting, farmers market, etc? You have not passed literature out at any other community event since then? Or is Massachussetts the kind of place where people commonly get involved only once and never show up to another party event ever again?
Davis X. Machina
Vanguard party, or mass party.
This isn’t a new argument…
Matt McIrvin
@shortstop: Rubio really does do the best of all the Republicans in general-election head-to-head polls, though. He’s within just two or three points of Clinton or Sanders, generally. It may be because he’s still something of a blank slate for projection.
LanceThruster
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-t-I7ixUAEww/UVWFjdLos_I/AAAAAAAAU7g/0yDJ_hSIfl8/s1600/i+claudius+livia.jpg
Just Some Fuckhead
@Joel: I understand the 57% of white nonvoters. I mean, we’re talking about people who view the voting franchise as an exercise in picking a boyfriend.
Tom65
This is why I’ve had a crush on you since our Rumproast days, you little minx. Now make me a sandwich, extra cilantro.
Kropadope
@Mnemosyne:
When did I say that?
FlipYrWhig
@Davis X. Machina: Indeed.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Bobby Thomson:
Why would anyone have problems with the Bernfeelers, I wonder? hahaha no I don’t.
glory b
@Just Some Fuckhead: ??? What racism? The fact that BS might have to work for a few minority voters? That we won’t automatically go for him against the Clintons who have given our needs some consideration? A guy who hasn’t explained those votes in favor of the gun lobby, just decided to flip flop on it (yeah I said it)?
Hint: Lots of African Americans think guns are a much bigger, more immediate concern than the banks. Instead of Berniesplaining why we’re wrong, how about actually giving some details about your come-to-Jesus moment when you changed your mind AND address our concerns about how maybe there is racism out there that won’t be fixed through the economy.
And tell your guys to stop trashing T-N Coates and stop calling Elon James White the n word.
WereBear
Here’s the part I don’t understand. Last fall, under pressure from groups who are disproportionately imprisoned on flimsy pretexts, Clinton agreed to stop taking money from privatized prison corporations.
Okay, it’s a good thing that, when called out on it, she stopped. But why was she taking that money in the first place? Why would a staunch Democrat who promises to help people out on these issues start out happy to take that money?
She has to be told this?
Which group is she planning to ditch?
Just Some Fuckhead
@glory b:
How will it be fixed under Clinton?
Cacti
@glory b:
Not to mention the minor detail of the non-existence of anti-white racism in the United States of America ca. 2016.
dogwood
@Joel:
Good one! That was an offensive statement. Poor people don’t vote, and that includes poor whites. While Latinos under-perform white voters of similar socioeconomic class, blacks actually out-perform their white socioeconomic counterparts. The least likely voter in America is a young, uneducated poor white male. The most likely voter is an educated black female.
Paul in KY
@catclub: Being in the minority or being tied with a bunch of nutwads who act like your mildest proposal is a death pact from Lucifer himself & have some parliamentary savvy is bad for passing an aggressively progressive agenda (IMO).
Peale
@WereBear:
Money you get from a donor is money that isn’t being donated to people running against you. I don’t understand why this is such a difficult concept.
Brandon
@WereBear: That is a good point. Did she return any of the money though? Probably not.
I think for the Clinton’s the real issue is that they seem okay basically taking money from everyone. Remember the Chinese national bundler scandal? While I think it’s clear they didn’t know those were foreign donations, they don’t really seem to care enough to know or not know. The donor list to the Clinton Foundation and Clinton Global Initiative is also a laundry list of repressive regimes for another example.
The real question then is, what is this money really buying? Clearly at some level people may get something, whether it is a being pictured on stage next to Bill, a night in the Lincoln bedroom or a pardon for Marc Rich. But beyond that, would this mean policy favors for this industry? And from that what should we interpret should happen looking at her huge volume of Wall Street donations? Should we expect financial reforms to be repealed?
The New York Review of Books has an excellent article on the Clinton money machine that is head spinning. I’m ambivalent about this primary, but it is hard to read stuff like that and not scratch your head and be a little concerned about what happens if/when she does win. How many favors do they owe for all the money they’ve received?
http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2016/01/30/clinton-system-donor-machine-2016-election/
D58826
@Kropadope:
While it should go without saying that the Pesident has to work with Congress to get laws passed, I don’t think Bernie will have any better luck than Hillary. I opted for Obama in 2008 in part because I thought he would bring less baggage to the office than a Clinton and therefore would be able to work with the GOP more. Obviously that was not the case. What I underestimated then, and it has only gotten worse since, is that the GOP will not accept any democratic president. If Christ came back and was elected as a democrat the GOP would convert en mass to VOODOO. They simply will block anything that a democratic president proposes because they do not accept the legitimacy of the election.
WereBear
News stories stated she gave it to charity.
Then why were people upset about her taking it and pressured her into stopping?
glory b
@Betty Cracker: Making Cornel West his black BFF proved that he’s kind of hopelessly (but maybe not irredeemably so) tone deaf on race.
We loooooove us some Obama, and usually might give a mild critique of him at best. Bernie picked one of the few African Americans in public life that is a full-throated Obama trasher to represent him in the African American community. Almost any random black person would have been a better choice.
Not only does West trash Obama, much of it seems to be personal. He has also gotten into some nasty public spats with other African American Obama supporters who have their own constituencies, like Melissa Harris Perry and Eric Dyson.
Again, why would you choose West for this important position? Why would anyone?If it was that important, even a little research would have told you he’s not the one.
Also, the pick of Symone Sanders as his African American outreach coordinator. She seems to have her heart in the right place, but she’s a 24 year old (IIRC) activist. for something like this, pick someone with more experience, a Donna Brazile type. Most African American voters are going to be 30 plus year olds who go to church and have jobs and aren’t likely to be pulled away from the person they’ve already decided to go with. Nina Turner, minority whip in Ohio, would have been a much better chioce. Black people appreciate the enthusiam of the young, but a more mature experienced politician would have been a more thoughtful choice.
FlipYrWhig
@Brandon: Oh Jesus Christ. And maybe the donors were from Iran!
Brandon
@WereBear: I am surprised and I think it shows a deft touch to not keep the money. Good for her. But your question is still important, why take the money in the first place? My guess is that they figured “why not”, until it became a political liability.
shortstop
@Matt McIrvin: I know he’s the strongest of the GOP bunch (although national polls are meaningless).I don’t want us to have to run against him. I’m just saying he won’t be bringing in youngs or Latinos in the huge numbers old white Republicans think he will. More likely he’ll pull in white, middle-aged, conservadem men who don’t want to vote for Clinton.
Kay
@Roger Moore:
Which has nothing to do with why Hillary Clinton had so much trouble beating Bernie Sanders in Iowa. Unless you’re telling me that Clinton’s popularity with AA voters somehow makes her less likely to win in a state where there are few AA voters.
It explains why Hillary Clinton will beat Bernie Sanders in South Carolina and perhaps a general election. It does not explain why Bernie Sanders almost beat Hillary Clinton in Iowa.
D58826
@Brandon: And the folks who win the Adelson/Koch primary will be any more ‘independent’. In a perverse sort of way accepting contributions from multiple special interests might be better than accepting it from just one or two. If Adelson is your major contributor then he owns you. If you are getting contributions from the oil industry and green energy sources at least there is a bit of having to please both. Cynical I know
In the end we are never going to get big mnoney and big campaign donors out of the system.,
Brandon
@FlipYrWhig: You are quick to be witty. But back in 1996 it was probably the only real Clinton scandal (aside from Marc Rich and some scandalous policy decisions). You may want to read up on it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_United_States_campaign_finance_controversy
FlipYrWhig
@Brandon: My guess is that they figured, “More money never hurts,” and they put the money in the bank without thinking twice about it. For instance, see this Michael Moore stunt: Political Prankster Checks on Candidates, Sept. 21, 1996.
FlipYrWhig
@Brandon: Yes, and it was stupid then. I remember “Buddhist temple” and “no controlling legal authority” being used to cudgel Al Gore too.
Just Some Fuckhead
@D58826: The question is not who, Clinton or Sanders, could get Republicans to pass progressive legislation, because neither will be able to do that absent – dare I say it – a revolution. The question is which candidate would be more likely to go along with Republicans on things Republicans want, like a pipeline or a free trade deal (or welfare reform, or a bankruptcy bill or war here or there.) I think we may have some evidence for this already.
Brandon
@FlipYrWhig: I think your analysis is correct, which is why I wrote.
geg6
@Kropadope:
So again I ask, what, exactly, is Bernie doing to get those good people elected? Is he hitting the trail with them? Is he raising money for and with them? Is he endorsing any of them?
What is he doing? And how will he do it in a district like mine in a purplish state that will vote either wingnut or center-left, but never left or far left? Who can the revolution bring here?
dogwood
@glory b:
I’m white and the West thing baffles. Not all of the President’s voters and donors are minorities. My white democratic friends love Obama.
goblue72
@Paul in KY: Obama has enacted very very little LEGISLATIVELY since 2010. The bulk of the incrementalist changes he has accomplished since 2010 has been via executive action and the administrative rule-making process – neither of which depend on Congress.
Budget-wise, its been modest give and take in the context of needing to pass an actual budget – which give-and-take, I would expect to occur under a Pres. Sanders. He has, to no one’s surprise to anyone actually paying attention, managed to successfully attach progressive amendments to bills during his time in the Senate, despite being in the minority. Its not like he doesn’t know how to work with Republicans. He’s actually done so in the past.
He actually knows WTF he’s doing.
And here he was doing the same pragmatic thing earlier in his career while still in the House. Ultimately, its a depressing outcome – like everything else during the Bush years – but it shows he’s not all talk.
Maybe its a consequence of this blog having started as a war hawk right-wing blog, but its funny – everybody complains about how we need more progressive stuff – and then when an actual lefty gets on the ballot and generates some momentum, everybody runs for the hills screaming about needing to be “realistic”. The totebags have never been clutched so hard.
ruemara
@Kropadope: my hat is off for saying that I’m the real biased person. As another liberal better once told me, I will stop making things racial, since thou art tired of it. Good day.
schrodinger's cat
@glory b: Bernie Sanders seems to think if he just uses the words humane and fair elebenty times in his website when he talks about immigration, the system will transform itself to become humane and fair.
WereBear
If the Clinton campaign took money from sources who wanted to shut down Planned Parenthood, I would question her sincerity about supporting women’s issues.
Why doesn’t accepting money from private prison corporations not carry the same stigma?
Why did she have to be told this?
Brandon
@FlipYrWhig: I am not sure what field you work in, but in my area we conduct reputational and integrity due diligence on all our clients. The idea of just accepting huge sums from questionable people, no questions asked, is very odd. You basically either don’t want to know or don’t really care. So no, it was not a “stupid” scandal, like say “who murdered Vince Foster” or the WH travel office. This one was real, which is probably why not many people paid attention. However, it is also true that the Clintons and DNC were only at fault in so far that they took a see no evil, hear no evil approach to donations.
Just Some Fuckhead
@goblue72:
I think it’s mostly the Balloon Juice dynamic of enforcing Obama fealty to the exclusion of everything else. Remember when Rahm Emanuel was so awesome because he was Obama’s former chief of staff and best buddy and so we couldn’t say a cross word about Rahm without risking the wrath of the Obots? Notice no one talks about Rahm here now. He’s been flushed down the memory hole, an inconvenient proof the “fucking retarded” liberals are right about everything.
Brandon
@WereBear: I just had a bad thought. I wonder if the “charity” she gave those donations to was the Clinton Foundation?
goblue72
@Just Some Fuckhead: Yes, but Hillary Clinton is secretly more liberal than any of those past examples, when she was secretly hiding her secret uber-liberalism. She’d totally not sign one more American working class destroying trade deal. And really totally not ok a pipeline project.
/snark
As you note, the GOP is going to absolutely be obstructionist no matter what. Very little will get passed, even if Jesus Christ was President. The one thing that Congress DOES eventually have to pass is a budget. They can muddle through with CR’s for awhile, but eventually, it comes to a head and budget has to be passed. We KNOW that the GOP will approach every budget like a zero-sum, down to the wire, absolutist negotiation – because they do it every time. Their budget proposals will be extreme. In business negotiations, when your opponent approaches every negotiation as a zero-sum, give-nothing-ask-for-everything scenario, the optimal response to that kind of negotiating partner is to adopt the same. Its annoying, frustrating and painful as every nickel gets argued over – but its the only option set where you walk away without giving up more than you got. And in that scenario, I’d rather have a President who is more likely to offer up as an opening bid, material cuts to the Pentagon budget. Hillary ain’t going to do it – Sanders could very well do so. (Its actually in his official platform under his foreign policy section)
WereBear
@Brandon: And that she didn’t, after all, return it to sender.
goblue72
@schrodinger’s cat: That’s not what he’s saying. Unless you are so far down your own arsehole that you see “Berniebros” all the way down.
Archon
I like Bernie’s judgment and voting record much more then I do Hillary Clinton’s. For me though, the Republican barbarians are at the gates promising no mercy and I need a leader who has what it takes to win, we don’t need an idealist. Now if I believe Bernie is more electable then Clinton I will happily vote for him in the primaries, right now I don’t.
gene108
@Kropadope:
The BIG DIFFERENCE between the Clinton agenda and the Sanders agenda is Hillary is not staking her campaign on re-fighting two of the toughest legislative accomplishments of the Obama Administration: (1) Healthcare reform and (2) financial regulatory reform.
And his appeal is that he’ll stick a shiv in the side of corporate America, rip up the big banks, wipe out private healthcare insurance industry and enter us into a Scandinavian style utopia.
Even if Democrats controlled Congress, I do not see how President Sanders could build a coalition of Democrats that would want to touch those issues again.
les
@Just Some Fuckhead:
An excellent example of how to influence people and secure advantage. How to convince someone you’re not an asshole, indeed.
Kay
@goblue72:
I;m having trouble getting over how to me Sanders just screams “Senator” though. I don’t think it applies to Clinton or Obama because neither was a Senator long and they never really adopted the thing.
I don’t know- I think John Kasich won’t be President because to me he screams “member of the House”.
WereBear
@gene108: But what is Clinton saying she will do? I don’t hear anything but that she’ll “fight” for liberal ideals, and I had high hopes when she brought up the Flint situation in one of the debates.
But since then, nothing. It’s starting to get me upset. I wanted some ball-kicking and name-naming. I wanted her to act like her opponents are the Republicans. She should be running them through a shredder and then setting the shreds on fire. Heaven knows she has enough ammo.
My concerns are starting to translate into disappointment.
gene108
@Brandon:
Why was Obama so chummy with Rezko? I mean Rezko bought the Big O some land in an adjacent lot so the Obama’s could build their dream home.
Clearly Obama lack integrity….(rolls eyes)…
Alex.S
The reason people are criticizing Bernie’s theory of change (political revolution!) is that he has promised repeatedly that it will happen by virtue of him being elected.
Patricia Kayden
@John D.: “I’m pulling the lever for whoever has a (D) after their name in November. I’m happy with either candidate in the general.”
That’s the sensible way to look at things. Either Sanders or Clinton would be better than anyone on the other side so I’m not sure why some of their respective supporters are getting so emotional and crazy.
In 2008, most Democratic voters were able to put aside their hurt feelings when their candidate of choice lost so I hope the same will happen this year. Otherwise we’ll be genuflecting to President Trump or Cruz.
schrodinger's cat
@goblue72: I have never once said anything about Bernie bros. You are the one who is using name calling as an argument.
This is how Senator Sanders wants to enact his ideas for immigration reform.
Wishing for change is the first step for enacting change, that can’t be your entire plan of action.
gene108
@WereBear:
From her website, some of the same stuff as Sanders, such as affordable college tuition costs, infrastructure spending, raising the minimum wage, etc.
That’d be hard enough to do, without having to re-fight financial reform and healthcare reform.
The goals of both Clinton and Sanders are pretty much the same. The means to reach the goal are different.
dogwood
@goblue72:
It’s good to hear these arguments for Sanders. He doesn’t seem to be selling himself as a pragmatist, though. He seems to be running as the answer to a failed administration. As a red stater, I’ve essentially been governed by the tea party since the Reagan revolution. It’s awful. For voters like me, the Obama presidency has been a godsend. But I do understand that Bernie doesn’t need my vote at any level to win the presidency. Neither does Clinton.
les
@Kropadope:
All well and good. But the man is promising revolution, not small ball.
Amir Khalid
@WereBear:
This is not really how the politics behind the legislative process works, is it?
les
@Kropadope:
Ah, dude, your man Sanders apparently takes the advice of Cornel West. If you’re trying to prove Sanders’ supporters ain’t stupid, this is a fail.
dogwood
@WereBear:
Bernie’s not running against republicans. He’s running against a system where he sees democrats like Clinton and Obama as much a part of the problem as republicans.
Bobby Thomson
@Kay: Bernie almost won in Iowa because it has one of the hugest concentrations of liberals of any state in the country, as a percentage of Democratic voters, and he promises end results to the left of Clinton. Full stop. It’s not complicated. Basically, Democrats in Iowa have different ordered policy preferences than Democrats in other states. If you think single payer is one of the top three priorities of the next government, Bernie’s your guy. If you care about civil rights and other such things, it’s not that Bernie’s against you per se, he just has different priorities. And if you’re used to a long history of being told to wait, well, fuck that guy. Similarly, moderate Democrats are going to care a lot more about judges and less glamorous issues.
The candidate who better represents the party as a whole is likely to win. And the party as a whole includes a lot of people (or their spouses, like Sherrod) whose livelihoods are condemned as evil by Bernie and his supporters every day. That narrow focus of his is tailor made for a small, disproportionately liberal, disproportionately white state. Not so much with the broader Democratic coalition.
Bobby Thomson
@les: JSF excels at outreach.
DCF
@dogwood:
Two Words That Explain What Happened in Iowa Last Night
At least on the Democratic side. You already know what they are.
http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/news/a41740/income-inequality-political-power/
The costs of inequality: When a fair shake isn’t
Harvard researchers, scholars identify stubborn tenets of America’s built-in inequity, offer answers
http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2016/02/the-costs-of-inequality-when-a-fair-shake-isnt/
WereBear
@Amir Khalid: I’m talking about running. Campaigning is one thing, getting stuff passed is another.
Everybody has their reasons for what they are doing, and of course I’m a loyal Democratic voter and donator. I’m not getting pouty if my candidate doesn’t make it through the primary. That is what primaries are for; seeing what the candidates do and say and perform.
I think I am upset, on some level, that President Obama was groundbreaking AND such an incredible candidate, President, and person. I wanted the First Woman President (as history will record) to be amazing, too.
And Clinton has racked up a lot of titles, but not a lot of accomplishments. Her website says so; important speeches here and carrying our policies there, but where is the legislation she crafted and tried to get passed and worked to make a difference for women, which is what someone might consider a natural issue for her?
I’m not seeing it. And that’s what I want.
Just Some Fuckhead
@les:
I’m not trying to convince anyone to vote for Bernie Sanders. I’m just here representing me. If people are basing their vote on something an anonymous commenter says online, I can’t imagine the voting franchise is very important to them, eg. “voting for our lives”.
And, let’s cut the bullshit, if there was any merit to the rude supporters argument, Balloon Juice would singlehandedly be torpedoing the Clinton campaign.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Bobby Thomson:
We all agree that money in politics deforms policy against the 99% – we all get it. We all see it and feel it. But when money in politics is your highest and/or only priority, like drones or surveillance is for the Paulistas, I know that the person I’m dealing with is a liberal white straight probably youngish male, who will not be the first up against the wall in a revolution.
JosieJ (not Josie)
@ruemara: Great comment. Too bad people are so busy talking past it, engaging in nitpicky parsing of how you phrased it, patronizingly saying “oh, you’ll like Sanders once you get to know him”, or condescendingly saying “let me explain to you in small words why you should like Sanders.”
I’m still keeping my powder dry: too often, Black folk are the first ones shot in a revolution!
Nate Dawg
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:This this this.
For the Sandernista’s in California, New England, et . al., please remember there are many people in this country, many of us in Red States, and the only thing holding us back from the hordes of awful policies is a federal government, and in particular, the President.
Since Berniebro’s readily admit he won’t be able to actually get anything done, my question is, why throw the dice on the possibility of having a return to Bush era policies? What’s the freaking upside?
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Nate Dawg:
My skin in the game is I have 2 daughters of child bearing age, both married to black men. Two of them are school teachers, and all 4 could use more money. Even if they had a lot more money because of Bernie, let’s just say, their priorities would still not align with the Bernfeelers, and having bros yelling at me or them that they’re doin’ it wrong goes up my ass sideways.
FlipYrWhig
@goblue72: I tried to bring this up before: those kinds of stories in the Taibbi piece are about how Bernie Sanders attaches his priorities to things other people want to get passed. I want to see it in reverse: what happens when Bernie Sanders has something he wants to get passed, where he needs support from assorted weasels and lickspittles to get it done. I’m glad to see it in the VA piece. It’s to his credit.
FlipYrWhig
@Nate Dawg: The upside is the possibility of a bully pulpit loudly making the case for the liberalism that the Congress isn’t providing, which makes people want to rally for a Congress that does provide it. I don’t particularly believe in the efficacy of such a thing, but others have a different view.
Kay
@Bobby Thomson:
I think it was a weak showing for Clinton in any Democratic electorate. I think a Democratic candidate with 100% name recognition, 100% of the institutional support, nearly every labor union and plenty of money should be able to do more than eke out a win against a 74 year old Senator from Vermont who isn’t especially charismatic and started 50 points back, especially in a state and race where she has run before.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@FlipYrWhig:
Right, because the press will definitely cover Sanders’ bully pulpit speeches when they didn’t cover Obama’s. If I hear one more time how Obama didn’t “fight” or use the bully pulpit, I’m going to spit. I keep pointing people to whitehouse.gov to show how many speeches Obama has given. How many have they seen on TV?
Brachiator
@dogwood:
So, why is he running as a Democrat? And why should any Democrat vote for him?
glory b
@Kropadope: Obama and Hillary have campaigned and fundraised for other elected officials.
Last year Hill and Bill raised 18 million fo rother candidates.
Bernie, as mentioned above, has kept himself away from the sausage makers.
He’s been pure but now wants them to give him their support.
Hillary has worked to change the makeup of the House and Senate. Bernie has never campaigned or fundraised for or donated to, anyone but Bernie.
different-church-lady
@WereBear:
I suppose this is a kind of progress: we waited until Obama got elected to be disappointed in him.
different-church-lady
@dogwood: So, it’s kind of like a hostile takeover.
different-church-lady
@Just Some Fuckhead:
And doing it brilliantly, I might add.
Bobby Thomson
@Kay: are you really using the 50-point talking point based on polling from before he even announced? We didn’t just fall off the turnip truck. Look, your guy lost. Pissing all over Clinton and her supporters won’t change that.
FlipYrWhig
@glory b: I think he thinks the whole fundraising process is rotten and he doesn’t want to participate. Which maybe you can pull off in Vermont. I don’t think you can pull it off in New York, which what Hillary Clinton was trying to do when she was gathering in checks from people who worked on Wall Street and such. IOW, it’s easy to keep your hands unsullied by shady donors when you don’t have big media markets or well-heeled opponents. He’s been doing well under different circumstances this time, but it feels a bit like unilateral disarmament to me, and simplistic to boot: all money from rich people and people who work for rich businesses is dirty, only $25 increments from Joe Shmoe is virtuous.
glory b
@Just Some Fuckhead: A la my mother: If Hillary jumps out the window will Bernie follow?
He’s the one claiming he’ll be at the vanguard of a revolution, how about he explain this part?
WereBear
@different-church-lady: I haven’t been disappointed in President Obama. I think he’s done marvelous things, and even his mistakes are ones he admits himself.
Kay
@Bobby Thomson:
I just think it’s funny how Iowa has been turned into this extreme Leftist encampment that no Democratic save a socialist can win without a grinding turn out battle.
That must have happened sometime between 2008 and 2016? It wasn’t true in 2004.
Joel
@Kay: I think the game has changed. Look at the relative success of Trump, who until very recently was someone who had no national organization or endorsements to speak of. His prominence would have been unimaginable ten years ago.
Now if only we on the left side of the ledger can make *local* elections gain this kind of widespread attention, we might actually create some lasting change.
Joel
@different-church-lady: I see what you did there!
John D.
@Kay: Iowa is quite liberal among its Democratic voters.
Cook’s Political Report breaks it down.
Kay
@Joel:
I don’t know if it has or not but since noted Leftist insurgent John Kerry won Iowa I don’t know that I’m ready to label them extraordinary outliers.
I think the “cares about people like us” question matters for Democrats. I think she should pay attention to that in a cycle like this one. She doesn’t have to be a raving populist. She has to get thru to them that she recognizes and will address economic insecurity because it’s facts but it’s also a feeling.
I actually think she would be good at this. I think her general theme of “security” could be used like that. For some reason that baffles me she uses it only in “national security”.
DCF
@FlipYrWhig:
When, pray tell, has HRC even tried to do non-corporate-based financing of her campaign?
This pattern of behavior reflects the original causation behind the email/server mess…btw, I put no stock in the story and believe it to be a nothingburger…she does ill-considered things like this because it is the ‘easier’ path (one phone or two? Really? You don’t have a horde of institutional (State Department) assistants who can help you with that ‘encumbrance’?)
Sanders, by all reports, is doing remarkably well with his campaign finances: a 74 year-old, Jewish, Democratic Socialist from Vermont without the institutional/establishment support and name recognition of his opponent. HRC made a choice to accept the binding contributions for her campaign. No one forced her to do so, but it was the path of least resistance….
Would she, as President, accept a ‘Grand Bargain’ with regard to Social Security as President Obama was reported willing to do? I suspect she would…and I have utter confidence that Sanders would reject such a notion out-of-hand, and instead seek to expand and reinforce the program….
Bobby Thomson
@Kay: in 2004 I don’t think 42% were describing themselves as soshulist. Instead they were drooling over the dreamy war hero. But you know, that was 12 years ago. People die and move, and did.
Kay
@John D.:
Which is why Clinton won NH in ’08? Or not? That was something other than the extreme outlier liberalism?
At the time I believe I heard it was their flinty contrarian nature.
Kay
@Bobby Thomson:
I just read the NYTimes piece and they were anti-war but rejected Dean and supported Kerry even though he voted for the war. They also rejected Gephardt, who was the populist, in favor of establishment Kerry.
I’ll vote for the nominee. I may also vote for Clinton in the Ohio primary (although I think she’ll do well here w/or w/out my vote) but I still think she shouda done better in Iowa. I thought 5 points was underestimating her support. I thought she’d beat him by closer to 7.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Kay:
It was that or because they finally saw the real Hillary.
Just Some Fuckhead
@glory b: You have nothing because there is nothing.
Kay
@Just Some Fuckhead:
I think the crying was sincere.
I’ll be disappointed in the Bernistas if they keep on contesting results. It makes them sound whiny. He did great, they did a great job organizing, move on.
LanceThruster
http://cbsnews.com.co/dnc-involved-joint-investigation-clinton-coin-toss-2/
Just Some Fuckhead
@Kay:
I don’t question her reaction was real. The spin her campaign put on it in an effort to win New Hampshire was pretty ridiculous.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Kay:
I completely agree with the caveat that even if he had a legitimate complaint, the Clinton jackals are going to spin it in the worst possible light. Best to compete and move on. Let the supporters clamor for redress. (see below)
Just Some Fuckhead
@LanceThruster:
different-church-lady
@Just Some Fuckhead: Well, time to suspend Tom Brady for another four games.
Just Some Fuckhead
@different-church-lady: I knew you’d have some pithy, unfunny comment at the ready! You do not disappoint.
different-church-lady
@Just Some Fuckhead: Yeesh… what a grouch.
The Sheriff's A Ni-
@Kay: In 2004, left of John Kerry gathered 49% of the vote to Kerry’s 38%. The problem was ‘left of John Kerry’ was split between Edwards and Dean.
Just Some Fuckhead
@different-church-lady: How long did you think you could keep poking the bear? I don’t mind you being a shitbag freelancer for the lulz, just leave me out of it, okay?
different-church-lady
@Just Some Fuckhead: Is this some kind of private chat room where you’re the moderator or something?
Just Some Fuckhead
@different-church-lady: Yes.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
damn, another near-Tbogg falls short
John D.
@Kay: I’m trying to figure out your point.
The link I provided has the methodology they used to make that claim, with links to the study that provided the data. 2016 is not 2008 is not 2000, so your comment about Clinton in NH in 2008 is a red herring. They base their claim on the percentage of self-identified liberals in the democratic primary electorate of each state.
So, if you have an issue with it, take it up with Cook, NBC, and the people who tell pollsters that they are liberal and voting in the Democratic primaries.
mclaren
The way the Bush crime family operates, I wouldn’t past it past ’em for the Rubios and Trumps and Cruz’s to suddenly start keeling over and plotzing face-down from mysterious cerebral haemorrhages and unexpected embolic infarcts. Pappy Bush’s batrachotoxin is undoubtedly still in its sealed vial, fresh from the CIA vault he removed it from back when he left the Agency for greener pastures.
There’s a reason why the goddamn freeway exit from U.S. 75 leading to the Langley Virginia campus of the Central Intelligence Agency is known as the George H. W. Bush Turnpike…
John M. Burt
Either the lake is going to turn over and we will have a Democratic Congress in January, in which case either Sander or Clinton will Do Big Things (only I like Sanders’ list better), or a Democratic President is going to be stonewalled by a Republican Congress, and not much will get done.
Sanders strikes me as being more likely to inspire a Congressional upheaval that could hasten the former party of Lincoln to its long-overdue rest.
Paul in KY
@goblue72: IMO, given the current composition in Senate/House, I would think Pres. Sanders could expect the same obstructionism. Especially if/when he proposes legislation that makes Pres. Obama’s proposals seem like they came straight from Chamber of Commerce.
Paul in KY
@Just Some Fuckhead: Fuckhead, what response do you think the House Republicans would have to a bill that provides free college tuition to all, paid for by various tax increases (I assume)?
Paul in KY
@dogwood: Too bad Pres. McGovern has passed on, he could give him some pointers.
Paul in KY
@the Conster, la Citoyenne: So there was nothing at all Pres. Obama could ever do/have done to get a speech on TV. Dubya used to lie about what he was going to talk about to get on TV. Say some momentous thing was going to be announced & then it was not that, but what he wanted to get out.
He was lying to TV people, so that’s all fair game (IMO).
Paul in KY
@FlipYrWhig: The problem is that the politician (a Democratic one) has to be able to take their money & then not do any of what those people wanted them to do. The problem being that they don’t do that in many instances.
Sen. Dirkson, many years ago, said that was the mark of a true statesman.
Paul in KY
@mclaren: There’s only so many of them that can keel over before it gets really suspicious.