In Iowa, third place was the new first place. I suspect that in New Hampshire, “ahead of Fiorina and Carson” will be the new first place. My guess is that no matter what happens today, Rubio, Jeb, and Kasich will have “strong showings” in the eyes of pundits. We may be told that Rubio only says his canned lines over and over again because they bear repeating and that anyway, folks at the Applebee’s salad bar like to repeat themselves too.
My one hope here is that Kasich does well enough that we can get a good Bobo fluff piece about him. He may not be young and handsome enough for Bobo’s taste though.
Bill
I was amazed when I saw Kasich’s numbers in NH this morning. Where the hell did that come from?
NorthLeft12
Does it bother any of the RWNJs that Rubio’s canned outburst has almost nothing to do with the question he was asked or the topic being discussed?
I know this must have been talked to death over the weekend [ I missed most of it as I was at a bonspiel] but I don’t understand how anyone can support a guy who makes Dan Quayle look like an intellectual.
Iowa Old Lady
Will we have exit polls from NH early? Or do the reporters wait until the polls close?
Tracy Ratcliff
@Bill: Kasich’s plan from the beginning was “ignore Iowa, put all my money into New Hampshire.” With Rubio needing a software update, Kasich is the next “establishment” pick.
Chip Daniels
I saw this headline-
David Brooks: “I miss Obama”
and immediately thought of DougJ, wondering just who was trolling whom.
Jewish Steel
Let’s dispel with the notion that DougJ doesn’t know what he is doing.
Germy
Bette Midler tweeted this quote today (about the GOP candidates):
Brachiator
Stunningly irrelevant. Jeb! will hang on until South Carolina even if he does poorly in New Hampshire. Kasich must do at least moderately well. The only question is how Rubio does.
The pundits count far less than the money men. And they still don’t know which horse to back.
Germy
I love Rubio’s use of “dispel with” because everyone knows grammar has a liberal bias.
Ohio Mom
@Bill: Kasich has been putting a lot of effort into NH. He is not as stupid as he might first appear.
In my mind, he is the most dangerous of Republicans because he *does* fool people. He is not dumb, he is not affable, he is not moderate or reasonable. He could beat Hillary, and his presidency would be the third term of GW, at least domestically — I have no idea what he would do with foreign policy.
Let Bobo find his own column ideas, I don’t speculating about Kasich coming from behind for even a moment the least bit amusing.
Roger Moore
@Bill:
My impression is that he’s been concentrating incredibly heavily in New Hampshire with the goal of doing well enough there that he looks like a credible candidate and wins over the mantle of the winning establishment candidate. It seems like as good a strategy as Kasich is likely to find.
Chyron HR
@Germy:
Let’s dispel with this fiction that Bette Midler doesn’t know what she’s doing. She knows exactly what she’s doing (in my pants).
Shell
“And even if Sanders wins by only point, the narrative is so strong going in that the media will still push the Is Hillary washed up?”
dedc79
@NorthLeft12:
Short answer: No
Longer answer: Rubio goes into each debate with a handful of canned monologues. The monologue he kept repeating was for use whenever anyone questioned whether he had enough experience to be president.
The logic was something like: I am not like Obama. Obama hasn’t been a bad president b/c he had no prior governing experience. Obama has been a bad president because he wants to and has turned America into France.
Thoroughly Pizzled
@Germy: Rubio is comprised of talking points.
FlipYrWhig
@Shell: Even if Hillary Clinton WON the media would push “why was it so close? She won NH in 2008, why did she have so much trouble closing the deal this time? Is it because she’s so untrustworthy and unlikeable, or is there a new reason why everyone hates her? Our panel discussion after this break.”
cmorenc
@Bill:
Even if so, it’s unlikely to be repeated in South Carolina (next primary up) where Trump or Cruz or even Ben Carson is more to the liking of most of the GOP primary electorate. Likewise, Super-Tuesday is heavy with southern states that won’t likely be so friendly to Kasich as he might be in New Hampshire.
jl
@Shell: I heard the hack Dickerson commenting on national news last night trying to gin up BS over ‘trouble’ and ‘challenges’ to HRC campaign IF she does not win NH. Yeesh. Dickerson was like, ‘well, there would be no real issue there, but it’s the impression, and therefore I will yammer endlessly about the impression’.
Probably best to look at pro-wresting PR and coverage to understand coverage of the primaries. And, to be honest, probably with good reason for the GOP contest, since it all bullshit and fakery anyway.
Keith P
“And then there was Marco Four-Times, who got that nickname because he said everything four times.”
Anoniminous
Kasich coming in second over the Incredibly Life-like Animatronic RuB2io ChatBot would be nothing but fun.
I’d laugh.
Out Loud, even.
For days
Doug!
@Keith P:
Now go get your fucking shine box.
Kathleen
@Roger Moore: 31 Town Hall appearances since Feb 1 and I think the total may be close to 100. I saw a clip of him this morning leaving an event and his message was we have to be kind. He’s “branding” himself for a “nice niche” demo of Republican voters obviously. Meanwhile I wonder how many of our Ohio tax dollars are paying for his security detail (Ohio Public Radio had a blurb about State Highway Patrol security for him, though they didn’t state who was paying).
jl
@Ohio Mom: I agree that Kasich would be dangerous in general, and I see in Krugman NYT blog today, some of his nutty macroeconomic ideas that would be disastrous (that I was not previously aware of).
Kasich comes off as more moderate (and in some ways he is). He has more experience than other GOPers, and has to lie less than Jeb, or Jindal, or Walker, or Christie to make it look non-disastrous and non-incompetent and non-disgusting, and less than Cruz or Rubio or Santorum to make it seem less empty.
Probably enough sane GOPer primary voters in NH for them to go for one of saner GOP presidential contestants who does not come off as a complete toxic failure or pathetic goof.
catclub
@dedc79:
The more important question is: Does it bother the media that Rubio does this? And the answer is: they will ignore it as long as they can.
Waldo
@Anoniminous: I guess that would make Kasich the latest establishment favorite. I don’t see him faring any better than Jeb or Marco, but hey, maybe 3rd time’s the charm.
Splitting Image
@NorthLeft12:
All of the Republican candidates make Dan Quayle look like an intellectual.
Seriously, go back and watch the scene from 1988 where he compares himself to JFK and Bentsen hands him his ass. Compared to the current bunch of idiots, Quayle is actually quite articulate. The standards have dropped precipitously in the meantime.
catclub
@Keith P: five times. Marco Pantelali!
MattF
There’s a new word out about Marco– he tends to panic under pressure. Um… not a desirable Presidential personality trait. A google search for ‘rubio panic’ generates this Buzzfeed link.
jl
@catclub: Rubio is a GOper so if the media feels that they have to criticize in order to not look like complete idiots, they will find a positive subtext to sooth the viewer’s the brain stem to produce positive thoughts and feelings, even if subliminal and inchoate.
catclub
@Anoniminous: Kasich coming in second will encourage all the other governors to keep at it. If Kasich can come in second, then by gosh, they can too.
Result: nobody quits, Trump and Cruz continue as 1-2 for a while longer.
catclub
@Splitting Image:
Lead poisoning news is not just for Kevin drum.
jl
@catclub: Christie will do what Christie will do at the time and place of Christie’s choosing. I guess that is his way of sneakily ramping up his Trumphood from a different angle.
VOR
@Kathleen: It almost certainly is the State of Ohio paying for his security detail. It is possible his campaign is re-imbursing the State of Ohio.
Back around 2000, Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura went on a national book tour and had Minnesota State Police bodyguards for the tour. IIRC his publishing company eventually re-imbursed the state, at least partially.
Anoniminous
@Waldo: @catclub:
Anything to keep the GOP Klown Kar and Floating Faction Fight running is great for us. An ever-changing second place finisher just about ensures it.
Bill
@Ohio Mom:
Agreed. I described him as a more presentable version of my own terrible governor – Walker. Policy wise, the two are twins.
But I saw nothing before this morning to indicate his “all eggs in the New Hampshire basket” strategy was paying dividends. All the numbers I had seen indicated he might be the next clown out of the car.
Also, who are these voters that are influenced to vote for someone based on the candidate blitzing their state with ads and appearances? It’s so easy to find out a candidate’s policy positions these days, how on earth does sharing a pancake breakfast with the would be President make any difference at all?
A Ghost To Most
Be careful what you wish for, Doug. I might just happen, and to me, Kasich is the most dangerous because he sounds the most reasonable. He is not reasonable, he just looks that way to low-info voters,
D58826
I keep reading articles about how Bernie will start the revolution toward a new and better America. Well fine if it happens. Everyone agrees that there is no way in H**** that Bernie will get his program passed in a first term. Ah but maybe in his second when he is pushing 80. Of course that assumes the revolution results in wholesale changes starting at the state level so that a more progressive friendly Congress can be elected in 2022..
Several articles have suggested that the revolution will force political change like the labor movement did in the 1930’s and the civil rights movement in the 1960’s. In other words the changes have to come from outside the system and not inside it. There may be some truth to that but I’m not sure the labor movement feels real successful these days. While we are not exacting back to Jim Crow the civil rights movement certainly is on the defensive on many issues, such as voter-id..
The losers in the 1930s and the 1960s didn’t go away they just bidded their time until the political winds changed in their favor. Sure you can argue that they built an infrastructure to help that process along but they always had a well to do base with access to the levers of power even when they were on the outside looking in. Big business didn’t fade away as a result of the new deal. Even when 30% of the workforce was unionize they could not stop the passage of the Taft-Hartley act which laid the ground work for right to work laws. Unions never cracked the south. The left never has had that built in advantage.
Now I don’t think Hillary is going to be any more successful getting her agenda past then Bernie will. Even Obama has had to struggle over the simplest things, like keeping the lights on. I look at the 2016 election as a defensive battle., Given the current make up of the Congress we are one vote away on SCOTUS from rolling back the 20th century. And what SCOTUS doesn’t destroy a GOP president will. Even so called ‘moderate’ Bush will gut planned parenthood, access to contraceptive, abortion, voting rights,medicare, medicaid, social security and Obamacare. We have seen this movie. Just look at Michigan, Wisconsin, Kansas, etc.
Now Bernie can use the same veto pen that Hillary can as President Sanders can fight the same defensive battle but that assumes there is a President Sanders. I just don’t seen a groundswell for a socialist president. Socialism has never been particularly successful in the US. Sure we have social security but don’t tell people it is socialism. It will kill them. Remember all those anti-Obamacare tea partiers in 2010 putting around on their scooters paid for by the non-government/non socialist medicare. Heck even Ike could only get the interstate highway system passed by calling it the national defense highway act.
If Bernie loses big in November he won’t have laid the ground work for a future revolution he will have opened the door to rolling back 120 years of progressive legislation. It will be a short fast trip back to 1870.
sjw
@Keith P:
Marco Quadrubio.
Waldo
@sjw: Rubio’s Cubed
Anoniminous
@D58826:
Going in we’ve got a very good chance of re-taking the Senate. It is too early to write-off flipping the House since the extreme gerrymandering based on 2010 census is definitely going wonky on the GOP. A lot depends on local conditions.
jl
@Anoniminous: I don’t think we need to change the House. Need to defeat enough House GOPers in the general to get it close, and put a scare into more moderate GOPers, by forcing them them to think about having to win the general as well as the their own primaries.
Edit: that result won’t make passing substantive major legislation much easier, but will make their plan of complete obstruction and legislative sabotage more difficult.
D58826
@Anoniminous: That’s fine for the 2016 cycle but the 2018 senate map is tilted a deep red. I realize that even in the minority the democrats in the Senate can use the filibuster to slow things sown. But if the world didn’t end when Harry changed the rules it won’t end if Mitch does to get his way. Even if they don’t change the filibuster rules the GOP majority in the senate just starves the various agencies for funds in the budget cycle and uses reconciliation to get it past the democrats. That is assuming they don’t have the needed 60 votes. If Bernie loses big he could do a reverse 1964 landslide that gave LBJ large majorities in both houses. In a nutshell it is a lot easier to destroy things than it is to build them. Even if they just repeal Obamacare, how long did it take to get a national level health care plan passed. Teddy R. talked about it in the early part of the 20th century.
And remember in spite of epic mismanagement only one right wing governor lost in 2014. Even though he is gone the new governor of Penna. can’t get a budget past and the schools districts are slowly going broke. Now of course the ever helpful bankers are more than willing to lend the schools money, at a nice interest rate of course. They are not willing to lean on the GOP to pass a budget. They don’t want to lose that 60 million dollars in interest and fees.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
Howdy Doug! – you got any ideas for Tim F’s question below? I sure as hell don’t, as it’s not my field. I bet I’m not alone expecting to see more of you as the long national nightmare gets fully underway… I’m not a Jack White fan, but it’s always nice to see you.
Ten years ago I might have seen you dancing in a different light. I’d have seen everything differently ten years ago.
Frankensteinbeck
Kasich is going nowhere. He’s said too many counter-orthodox things. It doesn’t matter what the establishment thinks, like Huntsman, the base won’t vote for him. Rubio is down now, but if Jeb becomes the front runner for even five seconds he will use that time to stick his foot in his mouth and Rubio will be back.
Of course, they’re all also-rans at the moment. Their jockeying is moot if Cruz and Trump keep all the votes.
@jl:
A lot depends on Ryan. There were no shortage of tolerable bills, especially non-insane budgets, that could have passed the House if Boehner had even let them come up for a vote. Boehner was the best friend the Tea Party ever had, abusing his power in unprecedented ways to let them create gridlock. They spit in his face for it. So… we’ll see what Ryan does. If he even goes easy on the so-called ‘Hastert Rule’ that nobody has used before Boehner, the House will be a problem but not the absolute gridlock machine it is now.
D58826
@Frankensteinbeck: Freedom Caucus still has enough votes to dethrone Ryan so he will have to step very carefully. There are already rumblings on the right that he is a sell out. If the GOP controls both ends of Penna. avenue I’m not sure how much maneuvering room he will have. The GOP base smells blood and they have been lied to by the establishment for to long. They want their agenda past. period.
Doug!
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q):
I’ll take a look at Tim F’s question!
CORRECTION: I’d have to see a picture or an equation to answer Tim’s question. My guess is that there’s lots of online software that can answer it if he can describe the region more clearly.
MCA1
@Bill: Ha! Silly rabbit. As if a large percentage of primary voters make their decision based on a nuanced understanding of the candidates’ respective policies and positions, as opposed to being flattered that this guy or that “liked” them enough to come kiss babies and eat a lot of apple pie.
schrodinger's cat
@Doug!: That’s what I said, he needs to post a figure or a sketch of his problem.
Turgidson
Bobo is already on the case. In today’s Bobo column of Obama-fluffing-at-the-expense-of-Hillary both-siderist monkey guano, Bobo opines that Rubio’s debate faceplant was charming because it made him seem like a normal person. No really, that’s what he said.
jl
@Turgidson: All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
jl
@Turgidson: I tried to submit a comment on what that might look like from a film of a famous Stephen King novel, but WP apparently got scared, blinked and ate it up.
Hurling Dervish
I just voted. For Hillary. But there was a long, long list of candidates, among them someone named Vermin Supreme. Not sure how Ted Cruz snuck into the Democratic ballot.
jl
@Doug!: Enough information to calculate the circumscribed cylinder?
Grumpy Code Monkey
Depends on how good Kasich would look in a flight suit.
D58826
sigh OT. federal judge is demanding to know why State hasn’t released the last 7k of Hillary’s e=mails. I guess a blizzard and the fact that the various gov’t agencies have better more importabt things to do besides coming up with ways to embarrass HRC is a little for him hard to grasp.
Doug!
@jl:
Yes.