Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

To the privileged, equality seems like oppression.

Fear or fury? The choice is ours.

The revolution will be supervised.

Mediocre white men think RFK Jr’s pathetic midlife crisis is inspirational. The bar is set so low for them, it’s subterranean.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

Nothing says ‘pro-life’ like letting children go hungry.

Radicalized white males who support Trump are pitching a tent in the abyss.

Fight them, without becoming them!

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

Shut up, hissy kitty!

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

The arc of the moral universe does not bend itself. it is up to us to bend it.

Nothing worth doing is easy.

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

The lights are all blinking red.

“Facilitate” is an active verb, not a weasel word.

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

Let’s bury these fuckers at the polls 2 years from now.

After dobbs, women are no longer free.

Why is it so hard for them to condemn hate?

White supremacy is terrorism.

Conservatism: there are people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

They punch you in the face and then start crying because their fist hurts.

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

You are here: Home / Elections / Election 2016 / New Hampshire results open thread

New Hampshire results open thread

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Polls are closing in most of the Granite State now, and the rest will be closed in 36 more minutes.

So what are everyone’s expectations:

On the Dems, Sanders 58/Clinton 38/Other 4

On the Republicans: Trump 35, a Governor 19, and a 5 way tie for 3rd place between 7 and 10

What say ye

 

Update with Results at 9:00 PM EST

Sanders wins 58-40 with 25% in

The Republican clown car is getting more crowded:

Trump 35, Governor #1 16, 3 way tie for 3rd between 10 and 12 points, the second loudest asshole at 7% and then the freak show.

Reader Interactions

367Comments

  1. 1.

    Baud

    I say white people suck and I’ll do much better with an electorate that looks more like the Democratic Party.

  7. 7.

    PhoenixRising

    John Kasich, the moderate, sensible corrupt corporate shill breaks out of the pack tonight. They love his schtick in the Live Free or Die Trying state.

    Sanders will beat Hillary so badly that the coming 2 weeks should feature a heart-stopping amount of posturing from Bloomberg, the big money guy. Then the race moves West and South, and we’ll see.

  8. 8.

    guachi

    I think it looks best for Clinton if it’s Bernie with 50-something and Clinton with 40-something. There’s just something psychological, to me at least, when you get 60+ percent of the vote.

    I have no idea, really. I’ll say Sanders by 16, 58-42. And I’ll say Kasich comes in second. I base this on my mom saying he’s the least offensive Republican.

  9. 9.

    Linda Featheringill

    According to information by Torilahure on dkos [search for him], your percentages would give bernie 5 delegates and hillary 3.

  11. 11.

    lol chikinburd

    I mighta just sold the goddamn house.

    I’m in a bar while it’s being shown (or not) to someone who’d had to be warned that we’d accepted an offer. (Probably still worthwhile in case this offer falls through.) But if it doesn’t fall through, that’s one impossible task down, three or four impossible tasks to go.

  13. 13.

    singfoom

    Out of the ether I pull Sanders 68%, Clinton 30%, Other 2%.

    On the R side: Trump 27%, Rubio 27%, Cruz 27%, Kasich 10%

    iCarly gets 2 votes. I so hope she drops out now.

  14. 14.

    Linda Featheringill

    Has anyone heard about how heavy the turnout is? Other than Merrimack where the poll is totally overwhelmed.

  16. 16.

    Linda Featheringill

    @guachi:

    Kasich as governor of Ohio has proven himself to be a jerk, but he’s not crazy and he’s not stupid.

    [former Ohio resident here]

  17. 17.

    Wrb

    Hillary’s team really messed up by going ugly, I suspect. Angered young women, reminded Obama supporters who had forgiven her,ndue to her honorable service since-of when they loathed her ( the time of the inadequate black man, Kenya, the slander of reverend Wright, birthirism and other Hillary Camp creations). Worst was when the group of pundits I’d most respected (Krugman, Klein, Chiat etc. abandoned their principals to become newly-minted very serious people, spinning en-mass, denying the data, advancing fatuous arguments to support the candidate to whom they had formed an emotional attachment.

    They became those they ridiculed.

  18. 18.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    Decision Desk HQ’s exit poll shows Ruboto has cratered to a deep 4th place finish. Story is tight race btn Cruz (15.12%) and Kasich (14.94%) for 2nd place, with Trump winning by 20 pts

    Trump……………35.84%
    Cruz………………15.12%
    Kasich……………14.94%
    Ruboto………….10.72%
    ¿Jeb?…………….. 9.62%◄

    Bottom line: Ruboto is Toast.

    *
    *
    Decision Desk HQ’s exit poll says CNN/WMUR is right and Sanders will win neighboring state by 25 pts

  24. 24.

    guachi

    Well, a 25 point win isn’t good for Clinton and I’d say it’s great news for Sanders. Especially because, unlike the Republicans, Nevada goes before South Carolina.

    I think if it were reversed, a strong win in South Carolina would bleed over to the Nevada caucus and give her better news for longer. I’m not certain how Clinton avoids own goals until South Carolina.

  26. 26.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    CNN Exit Poll (Breaking News Alert):

    13% of voters are French Canadian
    26% of voters like French toast
    19% of voters blame Canada for Justin Beiber
    31% of voters think Canada is the 51st state
    21% of voters think Canada is a soft drink.

  28. 28.

    Linda Featheringill

    @NR:

    Torilahure says:

    New Hampshire has 24 DNC delegates. State party has opted for simple, 8-8-8 split between 2 congressional districts and statewide allocation.

    Yes, it’s confusing.

  29. 29.

    debbie

    @Linda Featheringill:

    Kasich is a criminal, if only for his education policies and his championing of charter schools:

    The Columbus Dispatch reports Superintendent Lonny Rivera’s figures in a Jan. 29 letter reflect that Ohio has 10 times as many failing charter schools and only about half as many high-performing ones as previously reported.

    Department of Education officials say Ohio has a total of 57 poor-performing charter schools, not just the six reported in the state’s grant application in July.

  30. 30.

    Aleta

    Coincidentally, had to listen to shipwreck songs for a job today. These seemed like partial soundtrack to NH:
    Let Her Go Down, Steeleye Span

    Rise Again (The Mary Ellen Carter), Stan Rogers

    And the laughing, drunken rats who left her to a sorry grave
    They won’t be laughing in another day
    And you, to whom adversity has dealt the final blow
    With smiling bastards lying to you everywhere you go
    Turn to, and put out all your strength of arm and heart and brain
    And like the Mary Ellen Carter, rise again
    Rise again, rise again; though your heart it be broken
    And life about to end
    No matter what you’ve lost, be it a home, a love, a friend
    Like the Mary Ellen Carter, rise again
    Rise again, rise again; though your heart it be broken
    And life about to end
    No matter what you’ve lost, be it a home, a love, a friend
    Like the Mary Ellen Carter, rise again

  32. 32.

    Elie

    I do hope that Bill is very careful and mostly does not campaign for Hillary. He just can’t do this well and he makes things worse. He does ok if he stays positive and speaks only of her strengths and avoids speaking of Bernie’s problems or issues. He was a master communicator while President but he just sucks helping his wife. She does need a good surrogate but I haven’t seen or heard one yet.

  33. 33.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    I’m kind of surprised. Nothing related to the race is trending on Twitter. Interest by the causal voter between last week and this week sharply down. I guess nothing is as interesting as opening night

  34. 34.

    Crusty Dem

    Trump 29/Kasich+Bush+Rubio 15 each/Cruz 13/Christie 5/Carly 4/ Carson 3.

    Sanders 56/Clinton 44.

    That’s this idiot’s best guess..

  35. 35.

    Mary G

    Bernie 59, Hillary 40, Trump 36, Kasich 19, Christie 14, Rubio 12, Bush 7, a few for Carson and like 0.5 for Carly.

    The people who live in Distill Notch said Kasich visited them all individually and that’s why he did so well there. I think that’ll carry over to the res of the state. He did more than 100 town halls.

  36. 36.

    beltane

    I had been seeing homemade Trump signs in NH since the summer. Republicans really want a candidate who will stand up on stage and yell “F*ck You!” to everyone who is not them.

  37. 37.

    Elie

    Hmmmm – just had a innocuous comment disappear when I hit Post Comment… Anyone having problems?

  38. 38.

    Kay

    @debbie:

    Superintendent Lonny Rivera’s

    I like him.

    I know he’s only an “interim” until they find someone horrible, but you wonder how a normal person who has some actual experience and doesn’t hate public schools snuck in there :)

  39. 39.

    Rocky

    Jeb will finish surprisingly strong tonight. It will be a big story.

    Our ticket. Is. PUNCHED!

    On to South Carolina, and let’s win there!

  40. 40.

    Heliopause

    AP is listing everybody on the ballot. Last I checked Richard Witz is outpolling Fiorina, Carson, and Gilmore.

  43. 43.

    dr. bloor

    @PhoenixRising:

    Sanders will beat Hillary so badly that the coming 2 weeks should feature a heart-stopping amount of posturing from Bloomberg, the big money guy. Then the race moves West and South, and we’ll see.

    What we’ll mostly see is that most of the rest of the country looks at Michael Bloomberg and sees Alvy Singer.

  44. 44.

    JGabriel

    Richard Mayhew:

    On the Dems, Sanders 58/Clinton 38/Other 4

    I think it will be a win for Sanders, but much closer than most people expect – as it was in Iowa.

    49 Sanders
    46 Clinton
    05 Other

    Since I can’t think remotely like a Republican, I’m not even gonna try to guess how that one will turn out.

  46. 46.

    Elie

    What the heck! I just tried to comment again and it disappeared into somewhere… What is going on?

  50. 50.

    lamh36

    Barack Obama lost to HRC in ’08 in New Hampshire. Not by a “big” margin, but she did win. After the defeat, Barack Obama gave us what is now known as the “Yes We Can” speech

    Will we get the same thing tonight if HRC does lose to Bernie or vis versa? I know, I know, even in defeat, Obama managed to still “win the newscycle” from the actual winner from NH.

    Will either candidate be able to do the same tonight?

  53. 53.

    Schlemazel (parmesan rancor)

    @Rocky:
    Retchy? Is that you? Dude we missed you like we would miss a hemorrhoid! You been backing up Brinks trucks or what?

  54. 54.

    Steve in the ATL

    Lots of posters today whose names I have never seen before, and almost all of them are pimping Bernie. How curious….

  56. 56.

    Jim, Foolish LIteralist

    Not really OT

    Chris GeidnerVerified account
    ‏@ chrisgeidner
    Breaking: In 5-4 ruling, Supreme Court puts EPA carbon emission rule on hold during appeals process. #SCOTUS

  64. 64.

    Anoniminous

    @lamh36:

    As I said earlier today, I think the narrative is going to be Sanders won in NH because New England Liberals plus Dukkais Loser Stink.

    South Carolina will be the real test. It is out of Sanders zone, well into Clinton’s, and she needs to win it decisively.

  67. 67.

    lamh36

    @Baud: Too bad…even though Obama lost (yeah, not alot, but still a loss), that Yes We Can speech…completely overshadowed HRC’s win.

    A good “loser” speech can go a long way in tempering the “she’s a loser” cycle headlines

  68. 68.

    Davis X. Machina

    Tsongas, Dukakis, Muskie, all won NH. Dean’s the exception — but then, Kerry was from next door.

    It helps to be from next door.

  70. 70.

    Marc

    Congrats to the Sanders team for the win. I’m loving Marcobot in a race for fifth with Cruz. The Dems couldn’t have designed a better outcome on the Republican side if they wanted to. Nevada and SC next up on the line….

  71. 71.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Jim, Foolish LIteralist: Always nice when the Supremes rule in favor of the EPA in a previous case and order them to do something. Then the EPA does it, they’re sued again, and the same court puts what they ordered the EPA to do on hold until the litigation is complete. This is like you can’t get the job without experience, but you can’t get the experience until you get the job.

  78. 78.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    Trump………31.3%
    Kasich……..17.7%
    ¿Jeb?……….12.6%
    Cruz…………11.7%
    Ruboto…….10.5%
    Christie………7.8%
    Fiorina……….4.7%
    Carson………2.4%
    Other…………1.3%
    Gilmore……..0.0%

    8.6% Precincts Reporting

    22,469 Votes

    Obviously, Rubio is the BIG winner with his 5th place finish.

  80. 80.

    Linda Featheringill

    @Kay:

    Yep, I’m a Philadelphia Yankee now. :-)

    I had an elevated planter and it was WONDERFUL to not have to bend down to the ground.

  85. 85.

    Texas Dem

    Looks like Rubio might finish 4th or even 5th. Let’s see them spin that as a victory.

    On the plus side, it will be immensely enjoyable to watch the establishment types in both parties crap themselves over the next couple of weeks. The system got a good shakeup tonight.

  86. 86.

    The Sheriff's A Ni-

    @Marc: Kasich running away with second is the worst possible news for the Dems. He’s exactly the kind of ‘moderate’ that will obliterate Sanders and even give Clinton problems.

  88. 88.

    MazeDancer

    Steve Schmidt and Andrea Mitchell are both acting on MSNBC like that these expected results in NH are basically the end of the primary.

    Andrea Mitchell hates Hillary. Kneecaps her whenever possible.

    Schmidt spouted how “Barack Obama wrecked America”. And Trump voters want Trump to change that. (Yes, Steve Schmidt who chose Sarah Palin.)

  89. 89.

    guachi

    Kasich in second *would* be bad news for Democrats if he had any chance at the nomination, which I sincerely hope he doesn’t. Since he has no chance, it’s great news as it means it’s more likely we’ll get Trump.

    Yay!

  90. 90.

    JohnO

    Sure would appear Rubio’s epic fail of a spectacular and totally disqualifying (to me anyway) choke really hurt him. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.

    The Republican party has me so freaked out now my own personal Overton Window has shifted so much that I would take Kasich or Bush as POTUS and tell myself it could’ve been a lot worse.

  91. 91.

    Joel

    Would have rather seen a less decisive victory for Trump, but at least they are who we thought they were.

  93. 93.

    Texas Dem

    @The Sheriff’s A Ni-: New Hampshire was built for Kasich and his brand of politics. Let’s see him win in South Carolina, or anywhere else in the south for that matter. Then I’ll start to worry.

  94. 94.

    Marc

    @The Sheriff’s A Ni-: iI agree that Kasich is the biggest general election threat. At this point I don’t think he has a prayer of getting the nod, and in that case he just extends the chaos on their side.

  95. 95.

    WaterGirl

    @sparrow: Al Giordana suggested (before tonight) that a lot of libertarians are on the Bernie bus instead of the Paul bus. If that’s true, then the libertarians didn’t vote much in the republican primary, which would leave then underrepresented in the republican vote.

    I’m sure I worded that badly, did that make any sense?

  101. 101.

    ? Martin

    @The Sheriff’s A Ni-: Kasich can’t win the nomination – not without running far to the right of where he is.

    Let’s not read too much into what 2nd place means: Kasich 4,000 votes, Clinton 13,000 votes. Bit of a distinction there.

  102. 102.

    Kay

    @MazeDancer:

    Schmidt spouted how “Barack Obama wrecked America”.

    That is true, though, what he said. GOP voters here think Obama rolled Republicans again and again. They think Obama won every round. It’s understandable to me. They had these huge victories in the midterms and nothing really changed- Republicans haven’t repealed anything. They over-promised.

  103. 103.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    @David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:

    Gilmore……….0.0%

    I had a few minutes this afternoon of listening (audio only) to Joe ‘n’ Mika on MSNBC. One of them, or one of their guests, claimed to have heard a lot of buzz about Gilmore today. Made it sound as though he might end up as a close second to Trump.

    I guess not.

  105. 105.

    Texas Dem

    Wow. Rubes in fifth place and falling further behind fourth place Cruz. Time for a system reboot.

  106. 106.

    NickM

    @The Sheriff’s A Ni-: That might be so (although I think we should root for the moderate because this year is going to be harder than most expect and Dems may lose) but Republicans are now too crazy to turn out for Kasich. For example – look at the next two primaries – South Carolina and Nevada -I dont think he can win or even come in second in either.

  107. 107.

    Turgidson

    @The Sheriff’s A Ni-:

    Kasich has no resources anywhere else and is likely to get blown out in SC and then in the SEC Primary. It’s hard to see where he’ll have a strong performance after this other than maybe Nevada, but that’s a caucus state and his lack of organization will hinder him there too.

    I fear him by far the most as a general election candidate, but I don’t think the party base will let him anywhere near the nomination, even if he holds this strong 2nd.

  108. 108.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    @MazeDancer:

    Schmidt spouted how “Barack Obama wrecked America”

    Lowering unemployment to 4.9%, rescuing the auto industry, and withdrawing 96% of G.I.s from two Middle East quagmires really wrecked America.

  109. 109.

    ? Martin

    @WaterGirl:

    Al Giordana suggested (before tonight) that a lot of libertarians are on the Bernie bus instead of the Paul bus.

    Wait, what? Libertarians are backing the socialist – the least libertarian candidate in the field? I take it ‘libertarian’ has now been reduced to ‘wanna smoke pot’.

  110. 110.

    NotMax

    Vermin Supreme currently at 0.12%, thus #5.

    Feel the Vermentum! :)

    On the R side, “Write-in” currently in 9th slot. 3rd on D side. (No breakout of those names yet.)

  111. 111.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    @MazeDancer:

    Andrea Mitchell hates Hillary. Kneecaps her whenever possible.

    QFT. It’s kind of scary how blatant it is.

  115. 115.

    oldgold

    @MazeDancer:

    Yes, Mitchell, Schmidt and Maddow are poor analysts. The thing that has hurt MSNBC from the get go is a serious lack of on air talent.

  116. 116.

    NickM

    @JohnO: Trump is the asshole I want us to run against. He is too unconventional and nutty for even our degraded electorate. Plus if he wins the Republican Party will explode.

  117. 117.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    @Joel: no, no, no. read more carefully that was 2008 results. I posted it as a guideline for tonight.

  119. 119.

    Baud

    @? Martin:

    Yes, but now we’re all under increased scrutiny when we murder black people.

    Something you want to get off your chest, Martin?

  120. 120.

    The Dangerman

    @The Sheriff’s A Ni-:

    He’s exactly the kind of ‘moderate’ that will obliterate Sanders and even give Clinton problems.

    Sanders is flat unelectable; too many more unforced errors from Clinton and she could join him. Hillary may be the best candidate but she’s a terrible politician.

  121. 121.

    Tom Q

    The importance of Kasich’s showing is not the strength of his own candidacy — he has very little support except in a state like this, of which there are few — but the fact that he keeps the GOP passing-for-moderate lane massively crowded. Based on their showings tonight, there’s no reason for Bush/Kasich/Christie to drop out, certainly not in favor of Rubio, who might finish behind all of them.

    The “moderate” GOP vote has for eight months now shown only a consistent 30-40%, compared to Trump/Cruz/Carson’s 60-70%; the only chance that wing had was for one guy to knock all the rest out and take on Trump/Cruz the way Romney got to take on Santorum/Gingrich. For a few days, there was a glimmer of establishment hope Rubio could pull that off. Sure doesn’t look like it anymore.

  123. 123.

    mclaren

    My expectation is that Jeb Bush will collapse into a subatomic particle and become undetectable even to the most sensitive scintillation counters.

  124. 124.

    Kay

    @Turgidson:

    Kasich has no resources anywhere else

    He has access to resources though, if they start to think he can win. Rupert Murdoch was his biggest cheerleader in the governor’s race. I hope everyone is right that GOP voters can’t abide the Medicaid expansion.

  125. 125.

    Turgidson

    I really thought Hillary would close the gap more than it looks like she did. She’ll have to suffer through another wave of “she’s doomed” coverage for sure.

  128. 128.

    mclaren

    @NotMax:

    Vermin Supreme currently at 0.12%, thus #5.

    The guy who wears a boot on his head. So, the serious candidate among Republicans.

  129. 129.

    lamh36

    Didn’t someone once say Barack Obama can’t win South Carolina in ’08? How’d that work out for them?

    Of course this time, Bernie likely can’t count on a surge of AA voters…but it also means that the HRC campaign can’t afford to alienate the SC AA electorate by “courting” the white of SC as they did in ’08.

    Here’s hoping the HRC camp doesn’t go into SC the same way they did before…but hey, isn’t THAT what Axelrod’s critic was all about, that foiks in the morning thread was piling on Axelrod about?

  130. 130.

    Emerald

    @Kay:

    GOP voters here think Obama rolled Republicans again and again. They think Obama won every round.

    He did. First reality-based comment I’ve ever heard from GOPers.

  131. 131.

    Cacti

    @Anoniminous:

    South Carolina will be the real test. It is out of Sanders zone, well into Clinton’s, and she needs to win it decisively.

    Aren’t the Nevada Caucuses next, then the SC primary?

  132. 132.

    JPL

    Holy crap.. so CNN is saying that Jeb could have a good night by coming in third. It’s always the third place guy with them. wtf

  133. 133.

    Bobby Thomson

    @Turgidson: I didn’t, she will, and it’s irrelevant. As long as she keeps her cool at least as well as Donald Trump, the worst is over.

  134. 134.

    Nate Dawg

    Hillary needs to reign in her surrogates. Her campaign is tone deaf. People don’t trust her, and don’t trust the establishment. Telling them they need to vote for her because WOMEN is just so out of touch with reality.

  135. 135.

    mclaren

    @Turgidson:

    I really thought Hillary would close the gap more than it looks like she did.

    Hillary will not be the Democratic nominee. Are you starting to realize it now?

  138. 138.

    JGabriel

    @The Sheriff’s A Ni-:

    Kasich running away with second is the worst possible news for the Dems. He’s exactly the kind of ‘moderate’ that will obliterate Sanders and even give Clinton problems.

    Which is exactly why Kasich’s campaign will founder once it hits the old Confederacy and the more conservative Western states (i.e. Wyoming, Idaho, Arizona, et. al.).

    So, no cause for fear. Not yet, anyway.

  139. 139.

    JohnO

    @NickM:

    Yeah, me too. I know a lot of conservatives who won’t vote for him under any circumstances, or so they say.

    Also, weirdly, if he were to somehow win (can’t see it but bear with me) he’s one of the least scary of the bunch to me in practical terms. Nobody knows how he’ll do the job, and he’ll certainly destroy our international reputation because he so naturally embodies everything every other country despises in us, but I don’t think he’ll nominate Roe destroying or gay marriage overturning SCOTUS justices, for example. Just a hunch.

    Plus, the GOP heads exploding would be very entertaining just as you suggest.

  140. 140.

    Kay

    @Tom Q:

    The “moderate” GOP vote has for eight months now shown only a consistent 30-40%, compared to Trump/Cruz/Carson’s 60-70%; the only chance that wing had was for one guy to knock all the rest out and take on Trump/Cruz the way Romney got to take on Santorum/Gingrich. For a few days, there was a glimmer of establishment hope Rubio could pull that off. Sure doesn’t look like it anymore.

    I know it goes against human nature and these are insanely competitive people but wouldn’t you think they’d see that, get together, and have two drop out? It is obviously making it impossible to knock out Trump.

  141. 141.

    Bobby Thomson

    @lamh36:

    Didn’t someone once say Barack Obama can’t win South Carolina in ’08?

    No. No one said that. In fact Kos predicted Obama would win it before he even announced.

    Here’s hoping the HRC camp doesn’t go into SC the same way they did before…but hey, isn’t THAT what Axelrod’s critic was all about, that foiks in the morning thread was piling on Axelrod about?

    No, it wasn’t. It had nothing to do with her strategy in South Carolina and a lot to do with promoting David Axelrod.

  142. 142.

    Rocky

    @Gin & Tonic:

    That was a sock puppet spoof of me. I’m “all in” for Jeb.

    We can keep this party going to the convention if necessary.

    BTW, big rally in South Carolina next week with none other than Bush 43!

    The ticket is punched baby! And Rubio is toast.

  143. 143.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    Trump………33.6%

    Kasich……..16.2%

    Cruz…………12.1%

    ¿Jeb?……….11.7%

    Ruboto…….10.4%

    Christie………7.8%

    Fiorina……….4.4%

    Carson………2.4%

    Other…………1.1%

    Gilmore……..0.0%

    10.6% Precincts Reporting

    34,908 Votes

  145. 145.

    Matt McIrvin

    @? Martin:

    Wait, what? Libertarians are backing the socialist – the least libertarian candidate in the field? I take it ‘libertarian’ has now been reduced to ‘wanna smoke pot’.

    I think it’s more “hates Hillary Clinton”.

  146. 146.

    BillinGlendaleCA

    @Baud: Jeez, so negative.

    ETA: I take it you’ve seen some exit polling out of New Hampshire and the Baud! vote wasn’t what you expected.

  150. 150.

    Bobby Thomson

    @Kay: But who drops out? Carson and Fiorina are irrelevant because no one is voting for them any more. Maybe Christie, but I think Langone will back him as long as he wants to run, and he might see opportunities on Super Tuesday in a crowded field. Kasich, Bush, and Rubio each respond with plausible arguments for why they should stay in the mix.

  153. 153.

    Rocky

    Bernie is a joke…good luck in running o make America like Denmark. Your party is off the deep end.

    Jeb would wipe the floor with Sanders. He even honeymooned in the Soviet Union!

  155. 155.

    JGabriel

    @JPL:

    Holy crap.. so CNN is saying that Jeb could have a good night by coming in third.

    Same here, and I’m leaning Sanders.

    They really expect Trump and Cruz to implode before the end of the primary season. I suppose one of them might, but both is unlikely.

  156. 156.

    Rocky

    @Mary G:

    Yup yup. Jeb is in it to win it! We can take this thing to the convention, in fact, that’s the best option for us. Nobody knows how to put the screws on people and dig up skeletons like the Bush Family…

  157. 157.

    WaterGirl

    @? Martin: Okay, maybe I didn’t recall the whole picture. Here’s one paragraph of several on the topic:

    In 2012 Texas Congressman Ron Paul came in second in the Granite State
    February 8, 2016
    Republican primary with 56,000 votes, almost 23 percent. Four years prior, Paul had garnered only 18,000 votes.
    His son, Rand, dropped out of the presidential contest this week after a poor showing in Iowa, and was polling in the low single digits in New Hampshire. One of the reasons he could not gain traction was because a great deal of his father’s 2012 vote – and even some of his 2008 vote – had already lined up behind either Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders. Ted Cruz has made a serious play at what few voters Rand Paul had and will pick up a good chunk of that small universe, but that’s worth maybe two additional percentage points to Cruz overall.

    Here is another:

    The “liberty voters” who supported Ron Paul but who are pro-choice on abortion, for marijuana legalization and other left libertarian positions were a big part of the senior Paul’s vote four years ago. They’re gaga for Bernie now. And the right-to-property obsessed libertarians on the right had largely lined up with Trump even before Rand Paul left the race.

  160. 160.

    Turgidson

    @Kay:

    Sure, but it still takes time to build a campaign infrastructure. Some massive checks into his Super PAC would fund some advertising and such, but I doubt that would be a game changer in upcoming states.

    I think Kasich’s finish here will serve the purpose of keeping all the “establishment” guys in the race other than maybe (currently 6th place) Big Chicken (who can congratulate himself for his hatchet job on Rubio. Thanks big guy!!), and they’ll split the vote for a while longer and let Trump and Cruz pull away from them.

    But we’ll see. If the establishment and its media enablers can unify behind Kasich in the next couple days, he might have a chance. But given how pathetic that gang has been so far, I don’t think they’ll be able to organize themselves quickly enough to push Kasich out to the front in other states.

  162. 162.

    Eric S.

    @WaterGirl: I followed that line of thought. It doesn’t compute I’m my brain Paul supporters would break for Bernie though. To be clear in not saying it is necessarily wrong I just don’t get it.

  163. 163.

    lamh36

    @Bobby Thomson: it had to do with the HRC campaign needing to shake off the old guard way they seem to be running this campaign.

    But hey…HRC camp should go ahead and do as they have been doing…instead of listening to IDK someone who successfully ran a presidential campaign in THIS decade, not 20 years ago…the HRC camp with into ’08 the same way they seem to be going into this 2016…in 8 years… they haven’t updated shit.

    But whatever…keep on keeping on…Bernie Sanders camp as much as I’m not a fan…is at least running a campaign more in tuned to current conditions…than HRC.

    This isn’t ’08…the historic nature of HRC as President aint’ gonna be enough to get her thru primaries.

    Especially since I suspect alot of folks are thinking HRC’s got this…so they are just waiting for November. For all their dudebros aggravating behaviour, the Sanderites are at least excited about Bernie and are going out during primaries to vote for him.

  165. 165.

    NotMax

    @Rocky

    big rally in South Carolina next week with none other than Bush 43!

    Which automatically leapfrogs that patch of ground to the top of the list of superfund toxic waste disaster sites.

    What a maroon.

  167. 167.

    Tom Q

    @Kay: It would have been equally possible four years ago for conservatives to boost “one of their own” by uniting around either Gingrich or Santorum; they said they hated Romney, and he won several key primaries only because the far-right vote was split. As you say, it’s against human nature, asking someone as ego-driven as a politician to say “I’ll be the one to take the bullet”, whatever the cause.

  168. 168.

    JGabriel

    @Rocky:

    He even honeymooned in the Soviet Union!

    That’s a crock of shit. Sanders went with a delegation of 10 others to visit Burlington’s Russian sister-city. The fact that he brought his new wife with him doesn’t make it a honeymoon. It was a business trip.

  171. 171.

    Jim, Foolish LIteralist

    Looks like my good cheer is gonna have to come from Marco finishing 4th or worst.

    I honestly can’t remember: Is Rand Paul still running?

  172. 172.

    Bobby Thomson

    @lamh36:

    This isn’t ’08…the historic nature of HRC as President aint’ gonna be enough to get her thru primaries.

    True, but her dominating lead in states outside of New England will.

  173. 173.

    Calouste

    @JohnO: I’ve been wondering if Cruz might go third party if Trump wins the primaries. It’s not like they like him in the GOP anyway.

  174. 174.

    Hal

    @MazeDancer: Steve Schmidt

    Schmidt has been insufferable for the past year or so. I guess now that it’s election season he can let his freak flag fly and really let loose. Andrea Mitchell meanwhile will smarm her way through to super Tuesday with her superficial analysis. Is it November yet?

  175. 175.

    Texas Dem

    Any chance Clinton’s poor showing tonight encourages someone else to jump in to the race? Is that even possible now?

  176. 176.

    lamh36

    @Bobby Thomson: Bullshit. now as today…the HRC camp figures SC would be their firewall. But the missteps of both HRC and Bill led to discomfort and pissed off alot of AA voters who they NEEDED to come out in SC to have any chance against Obama.

    So no, no one was “literally” saying that, but you can best believe the implied commentary and surrogate talk said exactly that.

  180. 180.

    Kay

    @Bobby Thomson:

    Christie and Bush drop out if they want Rubio or Kasich to win. Christie has no justification for continuing. He’s not going to “break out” in the south or west. Bush can at least plausibly argue he should continue to South Carolina.

  181. 181.

    I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet

    @oldgold: I had to turn away from MSNBC. Tweety and Mrs. Greenspan on Hayes time slot. No thanks.

    I’m listening to the WMUR people on C-SPAN and watching the numbers crawl by. Much better for my sanity.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  182. 182.

    Nate Dawg

    As much as I’m “optimistic” that HRC will find a more favorable electorate in coming states, it cannot be denied that the blowout for Sanders shows a deep, deep problem with her candidacy.

    I am not optimistic about her chances in a general, although I’m not optimistic about Bernie’s either.

    Really wishing she hadn’t cleared the field. That was a stupid decision.

  183. 183.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    @Schlemazel (parmesan rancor):

    The only recent double open NH primary was in 2000.

    Democratic 154,639
    Republican 238,206

    In the last cycle (2012)

    Republican only 248,475

    In 2004

    Democratic only 219,787

  184. 184.

    Rocky

    @JGabriel:

    “Honeymooned in the Societ Union” will be all anyone remembers when the SuperPAC ads are up on the air…perception is reality.

    “Honeymooned in the USSR” will be in 2016 like “Al Gore invented the Internet” was in 2000.

  185. 185.

    guachi

    Doesn’t really matter. Republicans will say “honeymooned in the Soviet Union” and that’ll be good enough for most voters.

  186. 186.

    JohnO

    @Calouste: Can’t see it. Ted is cold and calculating and is in it for the long haul. A third party run would forever kill him and his own ambition. I don’t think he’d do it. He’ll learn and mutate.

  189. 189.

    Eric S.

    @NickM: I wish the GOP would implode but it won’t. Sure, it won’t win many presidential elections but it holds far too much power at the state level and has an out sized structural advantage in congressional elections. It will take many cycles of high Democratic turn out in of cycle and state elections to change that.

  191. 191.

    Nate Dawg

    Clinton’s vote share is slipping. If it goes below 40 (and stays there), it’s going to be really bad news.

  192. 192.

    FlyingToaster

    @Texas Dem: That Me’fa’ boy Bloomberg; the indie filing deadlines run between April and August.

    *Me’fa’ = Medford, Massachusetts, where Bloomberg was born.

  194. 194.

    Chyron HR

    @Rocky:

    I’m “all in” for Jeb.

    Just like you were “all in” for Pawlenty and “all in” for Romney.

    There comes a time in a man’s life when he needs to step back and ask himself, “Has a gypsy put a curse on me?”

  195. 195.

    Heliopause

    Most important question of the night: if Sanders wins by 20+ what gender-neutral metaphors can we use to describe it?

  196. 196.

    Nate Dawg

    @Baud: Fair enough. I think DWS and the Clintonites have colluded to a) winnow the field and b) schedule debates in such a way as to make it difficult for anyone to mount an insurgency.

    I could be wrong about that, but I doubt it.

  199. 199.

    MazeDancer

    @Mary G:

    Ben Carson’s got to be out now, right? His total is awful.

    No, he didn’t play in NH. Skipped it. Didn’t campaign there. Went to SC. So NH “doesn’t count” in his game.

  201. 201.

    Rocky

    “Honeymooned in the USSR”…”Vermont Hippie”…”New England elitist”…”thinks Denmark, not America, is exceptional”…”bigger taxes, bigger spending”…the ads write themselves. By the time Madison Avenue is done with Bernie he will be a laughable cartoon character.

  203. 203.

    Germy

    Holy shit! Watching John McCain on Finding Your Roots with Henry Louis Gates.

    Henry just told McCain he’s related to George Washington.

    Second cousin seven times removed, or something…

  204. 204.

    David *Rafael* Koch

    @Nate Dawg: I predicted this six months ago.

    What does Estes Kefauver, Ed Muskie, Gary Hart, Paul Tsongas, and Hillary Clinton have in common – answer they all won NH and lost the nomination.

    Take it from Nate Silver who also predicted this dynamic 7 months ago

  205. 205.

    JGabriel

    @Rocky:

    “Honeymooned in the USSR” will be in 2016 like “Al Gore invented the Internet” was in 2000.

    Or it’ll be like Obama Damns America or Obama Hangs Out with Terrorists were in 2008: ineffective. Some things are just too ridiculous for the majority of Americans to buy, though I’ll admit you can get a pretty hefty conservative minority to believe anything they already want to believe.

  206. 206.

    The Dangerman

    @Texas Dem:

    …someone else to jump in to the race? Is that even possible now?

    That would be great but, unless Hillary implodes, it’s too late.

  208. 208.

    WaterGirl

    @lamh36: I think the Clintons showed their true nature in SC in 2008, and it was not pretty. Once someone has shown you who they are, it’s hard to un-see it. I lost respect for both of them. Clinton is like the anti-Obama in terms of calm, stability, good nature, good humor, temperament, and street smarts.

    It’s a sad day to have to choose between Hillary Clinton who does not have the temperament to be president and Bernie Sanders, who I really doubt can win in the general election. I really have no idea how to vote in the primary, and the thought that one of the republicans could actually win is beyond discouraging.

  209. 209.

    Nate Dawg

    @Baud: “It doesn’t matter.” Of course it does. You can take any individual action and justify it, but taken together, the totality of actions have given us the smallest Democratic field in modern history. We have 1) Establishment Giant versus 2) Non-Democrat Socialist and 3) Vanity project No-name.

    It’s not good for the party, and it infuriates me, because we have no other option but to line up behind her. This is why everyone is so mad about the “women should vote for me because women” line. It’s the gall to force the coronation, and Bernie is actually calling it out. That resonates for a reason.

  210. 210.

    NotMax

    When it gets down to brass tacks, what business does any Republican have associating with any place or thing whose name starts with New?

  211. 211.

    sparrow

    @Joel: Don’t want to be *that* berniebot, but could the higher turnout be correlated with Bernie voters coming out?

    One thing that has me concerned, should Hillary win (I still think this likely), is Bernie is turning out people that Hillary can’t. I’m not saying this is wise on their part (quite the contrary), but it is a political reality. I seriously hope that he is not turning off voters to Hillary that would have voted for her if he had never entered.

  212. 212.

    Schlemazel (parmesan rancor)

    @JGabriel:
    True, but you can see where the attack is coming from & how it would be used to convince morons like r2rRotty that Bernie is a commie pinko red evil-doer. Of course it does not matter which Dem wins, this sort of bullshit will be spun into the filth that damaged brains take as gold.

  213. 213.

    Jim, Foolish LIteralist

    @Texas Dem: I don’t know about filing deadlines, but I guess the super delegate system might make it possible. Who would “someone else” be?

  214. 214.

    Anoniminous

    Whatever happened to the UNLIMITED! BRINKS!! TRUCKS!!! stuffed with all that CORPORATE!!!! CASH!!!!!

    The Golden Hits of yesteryear, so sad when they are forgotten.

  215. 215.

    Nate Dawg

    @WaterGirl: Exactly this. Clinton is doing her damn best to help us remember how awful she was in 2008. We *wanted* to forget but bringing out Albright from the crypt and having her tell us women who don’t vote for her should burn in hell is just beyond the pale.

    Onion had this right: “Don’t Fuck This Up For Me, America” <— That's the message

    BTW, Bernie wins "cares about me" versus Clinton by 9:1 margin. Also honest and trustworthy by 9:1 margin. Can that be good? Maybe, just maybe, the electorate is *right* about those things.

  216. 216.

    WaterGirl

    @Mary G: I had only heard about Carson at the debate earlier this week (not hearing his name being called). I saw it today when I watched The Nightly Show from last night – holy shit, that was just awful – him just standing there after candidate after candidate went past him to go on stage.

  218. 218.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Rocky: That’s our RtR, crowing about the supremacy of lies.

    I hope Donald Trump puts you in the gas chamber first, so I have a few seconds to laugh.

  220. 220.

    Jim, Foolish LIteralist

    @Nate Dawg: @WaterGirl: Exactly this. Clinton is doing her damn best to help us remember how awful she was in 2008. We *wanted* to forget but bringing out Albright from the crypt and having her tell us women who don’t vote for her should burn in hell is just beyond the pale.

    Seriously? one thing someone else said is “doing her damn best to help us remember how awful she was in 2008”?

  221. 221.

    WaterGirl

    @Baud: That is a true statement. However… her actions in not declaring officially until very late had the very predictable effect of clearing the field.

    Do you not think she knew exactly what she was doing and what the likely outcome would be?

  222. 222.

    Baud

    @Nate Dawg: Then he’ll win the nomination. Why is everyone freaking out that Clinton might lose? It’s not like we won’t be running anybody.

  225. 225.

    Schlemazel (parmesan rancor)

    @Germy:
    Saw that, sort of ruined my faith in humanity. I was less surprised that his ancestor fought for slavery with the butcher of Fort Pillow and that he deserted only to be captured by Union forces.

  226. 226.

    Baud

    @WaterGirl: I’m saying she has zero responsibility to help another candidate win. Other candidates have to step up, like Bernie and I have.

  227. 227.

    The Sheriff's A Ni-

    @Baud: Because anyone besides Trump uses Sanders as a punching bag come November. And if the GOP does nominate Trump, then we get Bloomberg and he uses Sanders as a punching bag.

  228. 228.

    Nate Dawg

    @Baud: I see your point, but there is plenty of blame to go around. It’s not an either/or.

    If Joe Biden were in the race, I’d be phone banking for him right now.

  229. 229.

    JGabriel

    @Schlemazel (parmesan rancor):

    Of course it does not matter which Dem wins, this sort of bullshit will be spun into the filth that damaged brains take as gold.

    Exactly, that’s my point. Whoever the Democratic nominee is, the GOP will sling bile and bullshit at them like water over Niagara Falls.

  232. 232.

    hueyplong

    Those of us who are not still teenagers remember the GOP talking points about Bill Clinton in the Soviet Union. It’s difficult for us to stifle the yawn at Rocky’s earnest attempt at trolling.

    On the positive side, just two more times and he’ll have Rubio’d that point.

  234. 234.

    John D.

    @Nate Dawg:

    …it cannot be denied that the blowout for Sanders shows a deep, deep problem with her candidacy.

    Sure it can be denied. I’ll go ahead and deny it right here.

    Other than a brief period around Thanksgiving, polling showed her losing badly to Sanders in NH. Now that we see the results, she lost badly to Sanders in NH. Should she be shocked? Should I?

    If she loses in NV and SC, THEN she has a deep, deep problem with her candidacy. If she beats Sanders in NV and SC, then HE has a problem. Which do you think is more likely?

    This whole “narrative” bullshit is — as always — bullshit. Much like national polling in a race decided by the electoral college, it is meaningless. Sanders *has* to win big in NH to start eating into Clinton’s delegate lead. I hope he continues to pull her left on the issues, but all the polling that keeps coming out state-by-state showing Clinton +20 or more in the primaries makes me think he does not have a viable path to the nomination barring a meltdown by her campaign.

    In any case, it is far too early to stick a fork in either one of them.

  237. 237.

    sparrow

    @David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: My mistake — I was responding to Joel, who I think also mistook your comment for the projections for 2016. So, hmm. Lower turnout bad.

    Could it be a chunk of people who are equally amenable to Hillary or Bernie? Wishful thinking?

  239. 239.

    Tom Q

    I know the press coverage is doing plenty to push this panic-over-Clinton, but people here really need to sober up. Nate Silver is reporting that the NH exit polls say 64% of Dems would be happy with Clinton as the nominee, even while they’re in the process of decisively voting for her opponent. (Bernie gets 78%, not all that different considering how he’s blowing her away.)

    It’s seems to be considered rude to mention, but Sanders getting to start the face-offs in IA/NH is like Clinton getting to kick off in WV/GA — the discussion would be entirely different in that scenario. Come back after March 1st and see if Clinton still looks like a fatally flawed candidate.

  240. 240.

    Peale

    @Nate Dawg: yep. That said, 2010 and 2014 really wiped out most Democratic Party governors who would now be running as successful two term governors.

  242. 242.

    NotMax

    @hueyplong

    And a quarter century since the Soviet Union disintegrated. For a lot of the electorate, USSR is ancient, dusty history or else might be thought to refer to a model of Lexus.

  243. 243.

    Renie

    @Mary G: me too, hopefully when all results are in he will drop down lower. but don’t worry he will never win. did you see the video of him at the NH rotary club today? hysterically funny!!!

  244. 244.

    Nate Dawg

    @John D.: Oh I think HRC will dominate from here on out. I’m more concerned about the demographic data about where each is drawing their support.

    She won New Hampshire in 2008 against Barack Obama, a much better campaigner than Sanders, and a truly exciting candidate (in a way that we hadn’t seen in a generation.) That night was very close, though. They came away with same number of delegates.

    This is a blowout. An absolute route. She is losing the young vote by 80%+ margins. She’s almost down to less than 40%.

    Please tell me how this is “good”. It’s not. It’s demonstrating what many of us have always claimed about her–she’s awful at this. But of course she’ll still win because she pushed every other viable establishment candidate out. So she will win. That’s the frustration many are feeling.

  245. 245.

    WaterGirl

    @Baud: I know it’s stupid, but I am (halfway) seriously considering a write-in for you on primary day. I truly do not know what to do, and it’s not because I don’t know which candidate I prefer. It’s because I don’t think either of them would make a very good president, each for very different reasons. Clinton for temperament and foreign policy and Bernie because I suspect he’s clueless on foreign policy.

    Edit: I shudder to think that one of the republicans could win in the general, which is what makes this such a high stress high stakes situation.

  246. 246.

    I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet

    @Tom Q: Walker already “took a bullet” and said others should join him, but nobody did.

    As long as they have enough money, why shouldn’t they keep running? Maybe another meteor will take out some of the competition? Hey, it’s not impossible!!11

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  247. 247.

    Mandalay

    @Nate Dawg:

    Clinton’s vote share is slipping.

    The (allegedly gushing) GS transcripts will really dog her now. She will surely get slammed for their content if she releases them, but if she doesn’t they will become a festering sore.

    She’s really fortunate that Bernie’s not an asshole. A lesser opponent would have thrust the stiletto in her back by now.

  248. 248.

    Heliopause

    Is it me or are the results kind of slow? You’d think New Hampshire of all places would have this figured out by now. “Live free or die.” How about, report election results faster than a Dominoes delivery or die.

  249. 249.

    lamh36

    I WILL BE VOTING IN NOVEMBER FOR WHOEVER THE NOMINEE IS FOR THE DEMS!
    (all caps since you can’t seem to say anything critical or not enthusiastic enough for some folks).

    Anyhoo, a bit of behind the scenes from Obama ’08 speech writers…

    Jon Favreau ‏@jonfavs 2h2 hours ago

    In ’08, this was the time @davidaxelrod asked to see the NH concession speech.

    To which @rhodes44 and I replied, “What concession speech?”
    ===

    …since @POTUS asked us to write the speech as if it’d be a long road ahead no matter what, we realized it worked as a concession too…

    …we changed the opening line to “Congratulations, @HillaryClinton!” and kept the rest as is #yeswecan

  251. 251.

    JPL

    @WaterGirl: Actually I agree with you.. In GA we can vote in either primary. In the past because of local elections, I have voted republican in order to insure a weaker candidate. It made me feel dirty, though so not sure I could do it again. (plus you get on a call list, ick)

  254. 254.

    Cacti

    @John D.:

    Sure it can be denied. I’ll go ahead and deny it right here.

    Other than a brief period around Thanksgiving, polling showed her losing badly to Sanders in NH. Now that we see the results, she lost badly to Sanders in NH. Should she be shocked? Should I?

    If she loses in NV and SC, THEN she has a deep, deep problem with her candidacy. If she beats Sanders in NV and SC, then HE has a problem. Which do you think is more likely?

    Co-sign all of the above.

    New Hampshire is about as far removed socially and culturally from Nevada and South Carolina as it possibly could be, while still being part of the same country. If he gets rolled in both of those, New Hampshire looks like a hiccup heading into Super Tuesday.

    ETA: Sanders also tends to perform much better with Indies in open primary states than he does with registered Dems. 13 states are closed primary or caucus, including huge delegate prizes like NY, PA, and FL.

  256. 256.

    lamh36

    @WaterGirl:

    “If you bastards want a fight, you damn well will get one,” Bill Clinton shouted into the phone. – Bill Clinton to Rep Clyburn in 2008

    SC ’08 was NOT the Clintons at their best…period.

  258. 258.

    Renie

    firm believer hillary will win it all. it was never expected she would win NH. since the 1990s the media have been talking against her and bill so there is no surprise at what they are saying today. the only negative is that so many people believe what the media has been saying without checking the facts themselves

    but she will win it all

    so say we all

  259. 259.

    Nate Dawg

    @raven: No. I’m “for” her, in that I’m going to vote for her against whatever sludge the Republicans put up.

    Am I “for” her? No, I’m not. I’m also not going to slam her with Republican talking points. Fact remains though that this is troubling to anyone with both eyes open. This is how a general election loss looks from February. FYI.

  261. 261.

    WaterGirl

    @Nate Dawg: There are skills and a temperament that make you a good president. There are skills and temperament that make you a good candidate/campaigner. One can argue about whether Clinton would make a good president.

    It would be hard for me to argue that she is a good candidate/campaigner, but there may be hundreds of people on BJ would disagree with me on that.

  262. 262.

    Jim, Foolish LIteralist

    The (allegedly gushing) GS transcripts will really dog her now.

    I wonder what percentage of SC or NV voting Dems would even know what this means

  264. 264.

    magurakurin

    @Baud: Exactly. On one level it just doesn’t matter because we are all going to vote for whoever wins. Both have pluses and minuses. But the result tonight shows that polls are fairly reflective of votes. Unless there is a big shift in the polling in the Super Tuesday states in the next week or so, Sanders is still toast. So, hoping Clinton can get her shit together and win the general is probably the go to worry point for the time being.

  265. 265.

    John D.

    @Nate Dawg:

    This is a blowout. An absolute route. She is losing the young vote by 80%+ margins. She’s almost down to less than 40%.

    A) It’s “rout”. Route is a path. Rout is domination.

    B) She is losing the youth vote to another Democratic candidate. You are taking entirely incorrect lessons from a primary vote. The vast majority of everyone voting today will vote for the eventual Dem nominee in November. This has happened in pretty much every election ever. Should I freak out that Bernie is losing the minority vote by huge margins to Clinton?

    (Hint: No.)

    C) The polling had her in the 41-43 range with a 4% MOE. So… 40% is pretty much where the polling said she was likely gonna be.

  266. 266.

    The Dangerman

    @Nate Dawg:

    It’s demonstrating what many of us have always claimed about her–she’s awful at this.

    A problem for her is she’s following in the footsteps of two of the very best Democratic politicians ever; hubby Bill had his faults (did he ever!) but he was a great politician. Obama is off the charts in how good he is at this stuff.

    She is not, unfortunately.

  267. 267.

    Mandalay

    @Nate Dawg:

    It’s demonstrating what many of us have always claimed about her–she’s awful at this.

    That’s just not true. She’s a steady and solid campaigner, and I would happily match her against any of the Republicans. Just because she wasn’t as good as Obama doesn’t make her “awful”. If Obama hadn’t come along she probably would have been our president for the past seven years.

  268. 268.

    Iowa Old Lady

    Voting for Obama spoiled me. Until then, I’d spent a lot of years voting for people I wasn’t excited about but figured were better than their opponents. Most of them lost too.

  270. 270.

    Mr. Twister

    @Mandalay: You mean the Politico story, that’s anonymously sourced ? The same Politico that most people who comment and FP on this blog routinely revile ? Was it OK for Obama to take Wall Street money in 2008 and 2012 ? Wall Street ain’t the problem, Republicans are the problem.

  273. 273.

    Heliopause

    You think it’s bad for Rubio? How about Christie? He kicked Rubio’s ass seven ways from Sunday all over national TV and he still might finish behind him. Like if Cassius Clay finished behind Sonny Liston in a popularity contest.

  274. 274.

    Anoniminous

    @Cacti:

    Nevada is Reno, Las Vegas, and a bunch of hicks living on government cow subsidies, not exactly a slice of Americana. South Carolina, however, is getting there and certainly more representative of the Democratic Party Coalition.

  279. 279.

    SFAW

    I am a little amazed –although maybe I wouldn’t be, were I following things more closely — that Hillary’s losing with women, 55 to 45. I guess her friends (Steinem, et al.) really helped her kick butt.

    Maybe, to help shore up her cred (do people still use that word) with the AA voters in SC, she can sign up Stacey Dash to stump for her there. Or Freeman Gosden.

    Did she bring back Mark Penn, and no one heard about it?

  280. 280.

    Peale

    @Davis X. Machina: carter/Kennedy 1980. But Kennedy did well for an insurgent against an incumbent. But otherwise, yeah.

    Went with Kerry over Dean. They must have spent all night flipping coins.

  281. 281.

    Tom Q

    @Mandalay: I’d argue her showing in 2008 demonstrated how good a campaigner she is. When Obama beat her in Iowa, and then ran off that string starting with the Potomac primaries, I thought she’d show herself to have a glass jaw, and go down with a whimper. The fact that she stayed with it and made it as much of a race as she did (people don’t seem to remember how many votes got, how close the final tally was), against as great a candidate as Obama, makes me much more optimistic for her this time around.

  282. 282.

    Cacti

    @Anoniminous:

    Nevada is Reno, Las Vegas, and a bunch of hicks living on government cow subsidies, not exactly a slice of Americana. South Carolina, however, is getting there and certainly more representative of the Democratic Party Coalition.

    Nevada is also 27% ethnic Hispanic/Latino.

  283. 283.

    JohnO

    Man, I haven’t dipped my toe in a thread for a long time, and I’m wondering if I got out the game because I do enough hand-wringing on my own without having to read everyone else’s freaking. LOL

    LONG way to go, on both sides, there’s really no reason to sweat anything yet no matter what. This is one weird year and as unpredictable as I can ever remember. (I’m 57 soon.)

    Just too soon to draw any real conclusions about anything other than the activist bases on either side are all fired up.

  284. 284.

    Cacti

    @SFAW:

    Maybe, to help shore up her cred (do people still use that word) with the AA voters in SC, she can sign up Stacey Dash to stump for her there. Or Freeman Gosden.

    Or maybe Cornel West?

  285. 285.

    WaterGirl

    @JPL: I voted in the republican primary once – in order to vote against Daddy Bush, who I feared most.

    He won the nomination and the election in spite of my vote, but at least the republicans have spent decades wasting their time and money on phone calls to me at requests for contributions by mail. :-)

  286. 286.

    NotMax

    Currently, George Pataki has 15 votes, edging out Graham (with 12) and Jindal (with 11).

    (Not made up numbers.)

  287. 287.

    MomSense

    @lamh36:

    It was a creed written in the founding documents that declared the destiny of a nation.

    Yes we can!

    I still think I know it by heart.

  291. 291.

    Iowa Old Lady

    OT but relevant to the tone the Rs have brought to this election: A friend of mine spent this evening reassuring her crying 9 year old son, adopted from Korea, that he won’t be sent back if Trump wins.

  292. 292.

    Mandalay

    @Mr. Twister:

    Wall Street ain’t the problem

    Correct. The problem is not Wall Street, nor is it Politiico, nor is it their anonymous sources.

    The problem is a candidate who brags that she is tough on Wall Street while taking their money, refusing to release the transcripts of her speeches, and claiming that she was never thinking about running for president while she was giving those speeches.

    Even if you are gullible enough to fall for that claptrap, how do think that story smells to the average voter?

  293. 293.

    Elie

    @Baud:

    I think that there might be a secret fear that while Bernie can perhaps unseat Hillary, that he won’t have the chops to do the deed in the general. That is MY fear. OK Bernie, if you destroy Hillary can we count on your rainbows and unicorns to defeat Trump? I have deep deep fear of Trump winning and I really could give a shit to some extent about the fine points of left wing unicorn ideology. I will never forgive the left progressives if they coronate a unicorn candidate like Mondale/Dukakis who are all brave new world in the primaries but then he looks like an old Jeremiah in the general. Its early. I am very concerned about Hillary’s strength and her political savvy…She has to “feel it”. Not seeing that fully yet. I remain unconvinced that Bernie has the sauce either…

  295. 295.

    NotMax

    @SFAW

    Word on the street is that Penn still has (and uses) ready access to her ear, albeit in an “unofficial” capacity.

  296. 296.

    Jim, Foolish LIteralist

    @Mandalay: refusing to release the transcripts of her speeches,

    Good lord. did the idea of the transcripts of her speeches ever occur to you before Chuck Todd brought it up last week?

  298. 298.

    Cacti

    @SFAW:

    Yeah, him too. I was thinking maybe Cosby, too?

    I was snarking. Bernie already has Cornel West as a surrogate for black outreach.

  300. 300.

    WaterGirl

    @raven: With Barack Obama, I was SO excited and was working my ass off to get him elected, there was no time to worry. Plus, I believed from early 2007 that Barack Obama would win the nomination and the election.

    I don’t have the heart to work or donate to either candidate this time around, so I have plenty of time to worry.

    Thanks for the reminder :: deep breaths ::

  301. 301.

    p.a.

    Is Nevada a Dem primary or caucus?
    Even if Hillary has some upcoming stumbles, has she locked up enough superdelegates (as the presumptive nominee) to require Bernie to win big a lot to actually have a chance?
    80% under 30 vote!! As Bernie loses will they be disaffected and sit out the general? Will Bernie be able to energize them, if need be, for Hillary? Will Hillary be able to do it herself?

  303. 303.

    Mr. Twister

    @Mandalay: Sorry but Politico is a problem and so are anonymous sources. I just want to know why this is such a problem for her and not other candidates who’ve taken the money.

  304. 304.

    SFAW

    @Mandalay:

    Maybe I’m naive, but what do her speech transcripts have to do with anything of value? Or is the expectation (somewhere) that she had a Mittens-47-Percenters moment every single time? Unless she said (A) “If you MOTUs keep your collective mouths shut, I’ll make sure Dodd-Frank (etc.) gets eviscerated beyond your wettest of wet dreams” or (B) “I plan to declare martial law after I’m inaugurated,” then what’s the issue?

  306. 306.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    @Mandalay:there’s no need to attack the voters of Iowa or the voters of the other 47 states that will vote for Clinton

  310. 310.

    Jim, Foolish LIteralist

    @Mandalay: objection, non-responsive. You brought up the very specific matter of the transcripts. You don’t want to acknowledge you’re feeding on crumbs from Chuck Todd’s goatee?

  311. 311.

    SFAW

    @NotMax:

    Word on the street is that Penn still has (and uses) ready access to her ear, albeit in an “unofficial” capacity.

    You’re depressin’ the shit outta me.

    Maybe she can sign up Shrummy, too? Holy Christ.

  312. 312.

    Nate Dawg

    @Mr. Twister: Because Sanders has made the Wall Street class a central campaign issue, and it is resonating with voters.

    They have been buying our politicians–Dem and Repub–for a good while. Someone is pointing out, and nearly everyone is pissed off about it. So, it’s an issue. It’s not some “conspiracy”.

    This is what I hate about the Clintons. It’s always someone else’s fault.

  315. 315.

    Nate Dawg

    Also, Trump runs on the *same* idea as Sanders. “I’m not bought and paid for.”

    Hillary *is* bought and paid for.

    This is an big fucking deal, and you guys can put your heads in the sand about it, but it’s resonating with voters in a big, big way.

  316. 316.

    Jinchi

    Yet another Clinton surrogate, in an interview with NPR, dismisses young voters as naive and overly idealistic fools responsible citizens who don’t understand what it takes to get anything accomplished in our democracy. They need a serious intervention with this group. This is becoming pathological

  319. 319.

    Jim, Foolish LIteralist

    @Nate Dawg: my head is in the sand to the extent that I still think, even with her Wall St baggage, Hillary Clinton is a better GE candidate than Sanders.

  320. 320.

    Nate Dawg

    Just heard Bernie say he’s going to New York, not to have a billionaire fundraiser…instead, he’s having one right now, with normal people. This is a powerful message.

    Hillary could use a sister souljah moment against the fat cats she runs with.

  321. 321.

    p.a.

    Looking to the general, the Rethugs have been smearing the Clintons since the 1990’s; except for the true-believer cognoscenti 27%, isn’t it just white noise for everyone else? Not a cost-effective use of rescources, unless you think younger newer voters might be susceptible perhaps?

  327. 327.

    Nate Dawg

    @Baud: No wonder you lost so bad tonight. You have no political sensibility. :-p

    She’s vulnerable to an attack from the populist left in a general election, and Trump will bring it, if he gets there (doubt that still but maybe).

    She has time to position herself, sister souljah moment, etc. It can be done.

  330. 330.

    Nate Dawg

    @p.a.: The completely antipathy of millenials toward Hillary Clinton is a very bad harbinger for her general election prospects. Thankfully, the Republicans are so odious, they probably won’t be able to capitalize on that.

    I’m not a Hillbot, and I don’t think my infrequent, frequent commenting here actually matters at all, so I’m just calling it like I see it.

  333. 333.

    Nate Dawg

    @Davis X. Machina:

    @p.a.:
    80% under 30 vote!!
    80% of 15%…

    Bernie Sanders Wins Every Demographic Group

    Senator Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton among nearly every demographic group in the Democratic New Hampshire primary, according to exit polls.

    He carried majorities of both men and women. He won among those with and without college degrees. He won among gun owners and non-gun owners. He beat Mrs. Clinton among previous primary voters and those participating for the first time. And he ran ahead among both moderates and liberals.

    Even so, there were a few silver linings for Mrs. Clinton. While Mr. Sanders bested her among all age groups younger than 45, the two candidates polled evenly among voters aged 45 to 64. And Mrs. Clinton won the support of voters 65 and older. And, though Mrs. Clinton lost nearly every income group, she did carry voters in families earning over $200,000 per year.

    ^^This is good news for Hillary Clinton!

  334. 334.

    Kay

    @Baud:

    Her speech was good. Less like a list, more like a theme. She’s added “security” to “opportunity”, too.

  336. 336.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    Maybe she’ll change her name to Hillary Sanders to confuse the yooots.

  337. 337.

    WaterGirl

    @Baud: As my dad used to say, you hit the nail on the head with that one.

    I thought for a minute that we would be able to resolve the whole election thing here on BJ tonight, but I guess I was wrong. Time for me to go watch some TV and snuggle with my guys.

  338. 338.

    Nate Dawg

    @SFAW: Pretty sure Hillary won among voters who know what “nitro pills” are, but I’m not one of them, so I dunno.

  342. 342.

    Mandalay

    @SFAW:

    Maybe I’m naive, but what do her speech transcripts have to do with anything of value?

    Clinton has long argued that she is an enemy of Wall Street misbehavior, with scant supporting evidence, while she has happily taken a lot of money from them, and now claims that she had no intention of running for president while taking their money. And she is (so far) unwilling to reveal what she said in those speeches to GS, who have just been forced into a $5 billion settlement for selling dodgy mortgages.

    However much you may believe in her integrity and honesty, you would have to be willfully blind to not see that situation as a credibility problem for undecided voters.

  344. 344.

    SFAW

    @Nate Dawg:

    Pretty sure Hillary won among voters who know what “nitro pills” are, but I’m not one of them, so I dunno.

    Actual humor notwithstanding …

    Only someone who actually knows what they are could make a comment like that.

    J’accuse!!!!!

  347. 347.

    Nate Dawg

    @Omnes Omnibus: “was expected?” Not by me. I was expecting Hillary to come a hell of a lot closer than 39%. Woof.

    Was thinking a 54/46 could make a Comeback Gal storyline. This isn’t a great night for the campaign, but it doesn’t spell doom of course. There’s literally no one else to win the nomination, so it’ll be her. “Yay.”

    EDIT: 38.2% OUCH.

  350. 350.

    SFAW

    @Nate Dawg:

    Was thinking a 54/46 could make a Comeback Gal storyline.

    And I was thinking the Jets would beat the Pats in Super Bowl 50, with Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing the winning Hail Mary to Keyshawn (or David Tyree) as time ran out.

  356. 356.

    chopper

    @Chyron HR:

    There comes a time in a man’s life when he needs to step back and ask himself, “Has a gypsy put a curse on me?”

    perfect. just perfect.

  359. 359.

    David *Rafael* Koch

    @Mandalay: U realize guilt by association is what the wingnuts do.

    Obama speaks to mooslims! He must be with Al Qaeda!

    Obama pals around with Bill Ayers! He must be a terrorist!

    Obama hung out with someone who said “goddamn america!” He doesn’t love Merica!

    Obama wants to talk to Iran! He must be a holocaust denier like Ahmadinejad!

    Obama shook Castro’s hand! He wasn’t raised like U or me!

    Obama said Hillary was likeable enough! He’s a sexist!

    Clinton speaks to bankers! She must be a banker!

  360. 360.

    SFAW

    @cokane:

    I’ve seen the polls they report. I have a reasonably good idea of the accuracy and histories of those polls. And for a significant number of them to have reported, over the last N weeks, that Sanders was up by 10 percent, and for a few others showing a 20-point drop for Sanders’s lead in a 2-3 day stretch, puts them in Rasmussen territory. I mean, I like UMass Lowell as an institution of higher learning, especially their MechEng program, but I don’t go to them for polling data. I also don’t go to Gallup. You might consider doing so, however.

    Although, I guess in fairness to them, RCP is considering hiring Dean Chambers to give some credibility and intellectual heft to their process.

    Oh, you thought I was just a HillBot, with a knee-jerk reaction, instead of actually looking at shit before commenting? Sorry to disappoint. [Not a HillBot, unhappy with her Wall Street affinities, but have no problem voting for her if she wins the nom.]

  361. 361.

    SFAW

    @cokane:
    And, for what it’s worth: the only reason I have reported RCP numbers in the past — and then, only for the Rethug candidates — is because Rocky the Racist (a/k/a RtR) hung his hat on RCP’s numbers allegedly showing that Jeb?!? was crushing the field. Of course, Rocky the Racist completely misread the data being presented, but that’s to be expected.

  363. 363.

    Tom65

    There’s some serious ostrich impersonations going on here. Clinton lost every demographic except one: white people over 65 who make over $200K/yr. That’s it.

  364. 364.

    Bobby Thomson

    @Kay: why does Bush drop out? He just finished ahead of Rubio and he still has money. He has a good shot at third in SC and people telling him Trump has to fade because reasons.

  365. 365.

    SFAW

    @Tom65:

    Clinton lost every demographic except one: white people over 65 who make over $200K/yr.

    So that means she has all the Juicers locked up. Well, a majority of y’all, I guess.

  366. 366.

    Miss Bianca

    @Aleta:

    Wow, what kind of job is that, where you have to listen to folkie shipwreck songs?

    I re-named one of our cars the Mary Ellen Carter after a spectacular crash and resurrection…

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