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You are here: Home / Past Elections / Election 2016 / Open Thread: New Hampshire’s Primary Is Always A Shi… Surprise

Open Thread: New Hampshire’s Primary Is Always A Shi… Surprise

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Ed Kilgore, in NYMag, with a little history to enjoy while we wait for tonight’s results:

… Rubio managed to jettison some or all of his momentum in Saturday night’s debate ā€” but any sense of certainty in the punditocracy was probably illusory anyway. It’s important to remember that New Hampshire has a long and sometimes self-consciously perverse history of upsetting the conventional wisdom about what will happen in the primary.

The Granite State has a long tradition of thumbing its nose at the preferences of Iowa, its first-in-the-nation twin. The last time the New Hampshire Democrats voted for the same candidate in a competitive primary was in 2000 with Al Gore; you have to go back to 1992 to find a similarly harmonious early-state outcome for Republicans. But high-impact results in New Hampshire go all the way back to 1952, when voters there were first allowed to directly vote for candidates rather than just delegates. President Harry Truman’s ambitions for a second full term expired when he lost to crowd-pleasing Tennessee senator Estes Kefauver. (Truman’s successor Dwight D. Eisenhower, meanwhile, began his climb to the White House by beating “Mr. Republican” Robert Taft.)…

But it’s not really fair to assume that the entire voting population of New Hampshire is composed of cranks, knotheads, and cranky knotheads. Although that does seem to describe the specimens most likely to be interviewed by various media…

Reader Interactions

118Comments

  2. 2.

    Roger Moore

    But itā€™s not really fair to assume that the entire voting population of New Hampshire is composed of cranks, knotheads, and cranky knotheads.

    Just enough that you shouldn’t pay much attention to the election results.

  3. 3.

    Gin & Tonic

    But itā€™s not really fair to assume that the entire voting population of New Hampshire is composed of cranks, knotheads, and cranky knotheads.

    Come on, AL, you live next door. Why isn’t that fair? It’s accurate, so by definition it’s fair.

  4. 4.

    NotMax

    Memo to punditocracy:

    Complain when it’s predictable, complain when it’s unpredictable.

    Sheesh. Pick a meme fetish already.

  5. 5.

    HRA

    Good (whatever fits)! My husband comes into my woman cave to say Bill and Hilary are on TV complaining about being picked on.

    I am done with this election!

  7. 7.

    jl

    @HRA: Exile Bill until general election? Is there a way to do that? Too late to have him winter over at an Antarctic science station?

  8. 8.

    dedc79

    Iā€™ve been reworking my 10 worst states list (1=absolute worst) to account for all iā€™ve learned over the past few weeks. Iowa and New Hampshire now make the list:

    1) Texas
    2) South Carolina
    3) Missouri
    4) Nebraska
    5) Iowa
    6) Kansas
    7) New Hampshire
    8) Oklahoma
    9) Wyoming
    10) Alaska

    My only prior experience of New Hampshire was from spending a lot of time in Concord for work. Concord is actually a pretty great town. I just get the sense it isn’t very representative.

  9. 9.

    Applejinx

    You left out heroin addicts! :D

    Latest campaignblogging detail: we are STILL trying to dig out people who needed rides to the polls and take ’em. It’s a promise we made when they asked for help. We’re not going to stop until we’re completely done.

    Two vignettes:
    we’re ordered that, if unordered pizza shows up to our office, do NOT let the people in and say no thanks, we’re good. Apparently at some locations someone used that exploit to come in and then vandalize stuff, mess up data and so on. Easy when people are celebratory and feel it’s over. In Keene we’re still at work though it’s nearly six.
    by contrast, a Hillary campaign worker (don’t know who) came and congratulated us on the campaign we ran. Our team leader went after him (he’d left already) just to express gratitude for the sportsmanlike well-wishes. If they can all respond so graciously we can rebuild the ol’ big Democrat tent. That made me proud to be a registered Democrat, for all that I wish there was a ‘Socialist’ checkbox to tick :)

  11. 11.

    GregB

    I remember back in the 90’s my pal’s Dad said he liked Pat Buchanan and that “Hawkin’s guy”. Tom Harken.

    Talk about polar opposites.

  14. 14.

    Sherparick

    If this is what Rubio’s friends are saying about him, I can only imagine what the enemies say.

    http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/02/marco-rubio-running-panicker-chief

    “Though generally seen as cool-headed and quick on his feet, Rubio is known to friends, allies, and advisers for a kind of incurable anxiousnessā€”and an occasional propensity to panic in moments of crisis, both real and imagined.”

    Yep, just what we need after a President as cool and level headed as President Obama.

  16. 16.

    Jim, Foolish LIteralist

    I wish there were some way to reliably count people like this

    Kathleen Ronayne ā€@ kronayne 4h4 hours ago
    Spoke to a voter who planned to vote Trump until he got to the polls and found out he’s a registered Dem. He chose Bernie.

    @ThresherK (GPad): and what’s unfair? what/who are they complaining about?

  17. 17.

    A Ghost To Most

    But itā€™s not really fair to assume that the entire voting population of New Hampshire is composed of cranks, knotheads, and cranky knotheads.

    Most of them live here.

  18. 18.

    NotMax

    Reminder of da rulez in NH.

    Republicans:

    20 of 23 of New Hampshire’s delegates to the Republican National Convention are bound to presidential contenders based on the results of the voting in today’s New Hampshire Primary.

    20 National Convention delegates are to be bound proportionally to presidential contenders based on the primary vote statewide.
    A 10% threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates.
    Allocate delegates based on the 20 Ɨ candidate’s vote Ć· total statewide vote. Round to the nearest whole number.
    Any delegate positions that remain open are awarded to the candidate with the highest statewide vote total.

    3 party leader delegates, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the New Hampshire’s Republican Party, will attend the convention as unpledged delegates by virtue of their position.

    Democrats (bold added):

    24 of 32 delegates to the Democratic National Convention are pledged to presidential contenders based on the results of the voting in today’s New Hampshire Presidential Primary. A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be pledged National Convention delegates at either the congressional district or statewide level.

    16 district delegates are to be pledged proportionally to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the State’s 2 congressional districts.
    In addition, 8 delegates are to be pledged to presidential contenders based on the primary vote statewide.
    5 at-large National Convention delegates
    3 Pledged PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials)

    Saturday 16 April 2016: Caucus / National Convention Delegation Meeting in Concord.

    National Convention Pledged PLEO and At-Large delegates are elected by a committee consisting of a quorum of district-level delegates.

    The remaining 8 National Convention delegates consist of

    8 Unpledged PLEO delegates:
    5 Democratic National Committee members.
    2 Members of Congress (1 Senator and 1 Representative).
    1 Governor.
    0 Distinguished Party Leaders.

    These 8 delegates and will go to the Democratic National Convention officially “Unpledged”.

    Also today are the R precinct meetings in OK to choose delegates to send to county conventions.

    Data from within here.

  21. 21.

    NotMax

    And this thread bigfooted – on an election day, no less – by a non-politics post.

    Common sense: a quaint concept.

  22. 22.

    Schlemazel (parmesan rancor)

    @dedc79:
    I am not sure what your criteria are but no way Iowa is worse than Kansas or Oklahoma by any standard I would use. While I don’t disagree that every state on your list is worthy of consideration your list is missing most of the exConfederacy and each of those is fighting with all its might to be the worst so should probably be on the list.

  30. 30.

    jl

    @Baud:

    ” Letā€™s go, New Hampshire! Vote Baud! or Die! ”

    I heard news that a Rubio NH chair attacked some protester who dressed up in a robot suit.

    Unless that protester was Baud! 2016! himself, I expect something better from you, or I will have to assume you are not taking the campaign seriously, at all.

  34. 34.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    CNN/WMUR ā€”- New Hampshire Poll ā€” Feb 4 thur 8

    Sandersā€¦ā€¦ā€¦61%
    Clintonā€¦ā€¦ā€¦..35%

    polls close at 7PM Eastern

    It’s gonna be a 25 pt blow out.

    The drama will be what hit did Ruboto take.

  35. 35.

    debbie

    What the hell is with David Brooks now saying he will miss Obama??? Where’s the apology that’s been due for the past 7 years?

  36. 36.

    JPL

    @Kay: haha.. Only because he is the least crazy on the repub side.

    NYTimes is saying half of the repubs support a non politico.. God help us all. There’s enough info that says Sanders wins on the dem side.

  41. 41.

    jl

    @Baud: All I know is that all some Rubio hack has to do is go apeshit on some protester. and makes the news on election day, and the Baud! 2016! has no flashier outrage to top it.

    Looks weak, IMHO.

    Edit: though I suppose if you are threatening to kill people who don’t vote for you, it might make the news. Depends on Trump’s next move, I guess.

  42. 42.

    debbie

    @JPL:

    That’s just it. Kasich isn’t the least crazy one. What lies beneath that veneer of bumbling old man would frighten even the steeliest.

  45. 45.

    JPL

    @debbie: Who do you think is the least crazy one? Certainly not the one who went to court to keep the dead woman alive by feeding tubes.

  47. 47.

    jl

    @debbie: I hope for whatever outcome maximizes GOP chaos and confusion. I guess, that they all end up stuck tied in some frantic electoral mosh pit, covered in mud.

  53. 53.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    Next contests:

    Saturday, February 20: Nevada (D) South Carolina (R)

    Tuesday, February 23: Nevada caucus (R)

    Saturday, February 27 South Carolina (D)

    Super Tuesday March 1st: 12 contests

    South (7) Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia,

    North (3) Massachusetts, Minnesota, Vermont,

    West (2) American Samoa, Colorado

    It’s going to be a little slow until the end of the month when it really heats up.

  59. 59.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    @David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:

    FWIW, I voted today (early voting in Georgia). Glad to have it committed — a done deal. I was getting tired of going back and forth in my own mind, and I don’t much care to second-guess myself.

  61. 61.

    Schlemazel (parmesan rancor)

    @dedc79:
    True story. My brother and his wife moved to Kansas about qo years ago because they thought it would be more to their liking. About 20 years ago he was in a really bad car accident and suffered traumatic brain injury. After the accident he became a huge Rush Lamebrain fan and a total wingnut. I can trace a direct path as a straight line between those 3 events.

  63. 63.

    Schlemazel (parmesan rancor)

    @debbie:
    No, I want Kasich to finish second in NH. The best would be if the top three finishers came from a pool of 4-5 people. The danger is that as soon as there is one “not Trump” they will start winning regularly. The longer there are 3-4 ‘not Trumps’the better the odds of a brokered convention and a dumpster fire 3rd party run.

  68. 68.

    jl

    @Baud: Just remember that ‘down ticket’ doesn’t mean campaigns where all the candidates are passed out. Consider that a pro-tip.

  72. 72.

    dedc79

    @Schlemazel (parmesan rancor): I hear you. My first experience of Kansas (and second of Missouri) was driving a rental car from the KC airport to a business meeting. I couldn’t find a station on the AM dial that wasn’t a preacher telling me why i was going to hell or wing nut talk radio telling me why i’m the devil. Meanwhile, all the billboards along the road i was on seemed to be advertising sex toys and strip clubs.

  73. 73.

    geg6

    Not paying a bit of attention to NH, much as I paid no attention to Iowa. Neither contest has any meaning since neither state is in any way representative of the Democratic electorate. Meaningless theater meant to gin up cash for those lily white, population deficient states. I literally couldn’t care less. End of the month is when the rubber meets the road and I fully expect the PA primary in April to be a formality due to the fact that the nominee will have already been decided.

  74. 74.

    Miss Bianca

    @Baud:

    I was hoping you’d go for “Return of the Son of the Valley of the Planet of Baud,” but I’m told the focus group thinks that one’s too long…

  75. 75.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    @Baud:

    This was presidential candidates only (including O’Malley and Webb) — no down-ticket candidates today. Congressional primaries aren’t until May 24.

  76. 76.

    Davis X. Machina

    But itā€™s not really fair to assume that the entire voting population of New Hampshire is composed of cranks, knotheads, and cranky knotheads.

    IIRC, the truth of an assertion is an airtight affirmative defense against libel….

  79. 79.

    jl

    @geg6: Really? John Dickerson assured me over the news machine that media and CW fallout from both primaries is very important and will be challenge to the campaigns, especially HRC’s.

  80. 80.

    chopper

    @Jim, Foolish LIteralist:

    Kathleen Ronayne ā€@ kronayne 4h4 hours ago
    Spoke to a voter who planned to vote Trump until he got to the polls and found out heā€™s a registered Dem. He chose Bernie.

    oh FFS (pinches bridge of nose).

  83. 83.

    debbie

    @Baud:

    @JPL:

    I had to think about this for a while, but I would have to go with Christie. I don’t like him — he is from Jersey — but there’s none of this compassionate religionist claptrap or lockbox drivel or remnants of Reaganism that makes up Kasich.

  85. 85.

    singfoom

    @Schlemazel (parmesan rancor): As someone who endured his childhood in Kansas and then GTFO, this sounds all too accurate. The archetype of the senior citizen riding a hoverround holding a “Keep your government off my medicare” is the living breathing heart of Kansas.

    Even with Brownbacks destruction of the economy via tax cuts for the Kochs, people STILL re-elected him. Because gays are bad, mmkay?

    Kansas always makes me weep.

  87. 87.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    Decision Desk HQ’s exit poll shows Ruboto has cratered to a deep 4th place finish. Story is tight race btn Cruz (15.12%) and Kasich (14.94%) for 2nd place, with Trump winning by 20 pts

    Trump……………35.84%
    Cruz………………15.12%
    Kasich……………14.94%
    Ruboto………….10.72%
    ĀæJeb?…………….. 9.62%ā—„

    Bottom line: Ruboto is Toast.

  88. 88.

    Baud

    @NotMax:
    @jl:

    Maybe the title to my autobiography should be a transliteration of the sound that dial up modems used to make.

    I’ll have to look that up.

  89. 89.

    Brandon

    @Schlemazel (parmesan rancor): Yes, that is exactly the favored strategy. To maintain the R primary chaos up through the primaries, convention and general. Problem is, it will probably be a 3 man race after Super Tuesday: Trump, Not Trump and Cruz. I include Cruz because there is no way he is going to drop out.

  91. 91.

    geg6

    @jl:

    Well, as far as I can tell, there isn’t a single thing that could happen that wouldn’t be a challenge for Hillary. Bernie could drop out tomorrow, the Republicans could nominate Ted Cruz, Cruz could pick Louis Gohmert for VP and she could go into election night with polling at 95% and her campaign would still be portrayed by John Dickerson and his ilk as being on the edge of disaster.

  93. 93.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    Decision Desk HQā€™s exit poll says CNN/WMUR is right and Sanders will win neighboring state by 25 pts

  94. 94.

    Gimlet

    @Baud:

    There have been times in the days of open primaries I crossed over and voted for the opposing candidate I thought easier to beat.

  95. 95.

    D58826

    What’s at stake in 2016. SCOTUS by the usual 5-4 has voted to put Obama’s air pollution rules on hold until the case works its way thru the courts. Now if any one thinks that once the case roaches SCOTUS for a final ruling that it will go any other way then how it was decided today 5-4 conservative win, then I have a couple of unicorns to sell you.

  97. 97.

    debbie

    @Baud:

    Also, I like the idea that Christie can be shot down with a single word: Bridge. His fighting back against that only proves he in fact is a bully. And this country’s had enough of those.

  99. 99.

    singfoom

    @D58826: Wait, how much do you want for the unicorns? Are they all the same color? Can they talk? I can’t pass up this opportunity!

  102. 102.

    jl

    @geg6: If the entire organized GOP disappeared into a void of self-refuting derp, and an opposition to the Democrats had to organize itself from scratch, I am sure it would a problem for Democrats. Overconfidence, maybe?

  103. 103.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    @jl: Dickerson is correct in the sense that Hillary hating media will pound her for the next 19 days until SC.

    On August 12, 2015 (six months ago) I wrote:

    Welp, looks like Hillary is toast. Now winning New Hampshire wonā€™t make you president. McCain, Gary Hart, Pat Buchanan, Ed Muskie, Paul Tsongas, Hillary Clinton all won NH and failed to win the nomination. But, between the time of NH and SC there will be an unimaginable feeding frenzy.

    Now, that said, the outcome of NH doesn’t affect following outcomes of SC or Super Tuesday.

  108. 108.

    jl

    @NotMax: Thanks… I guess. if not a scripted robot, maybe Rubio is a mentally failing crabby grandpa in an aging young man suit?

  109. 109.

    Elie

    @geg6:

    I totally hear that and it drives me crazy…

    The latest insults have to do with her “inability” to appeal to young women… I mean, this is before! a vote has been cast in NH and after a caucus in Iowa where results are not translatable to one person one vote but “she lost the youth vote”…

    I think she has mostly handled it with poise and I have really liked her performance during the debates, but the bias against her and for Bernie by the media is disgusting. I’m trying to stay cool…

  110. 110.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    I’m kind of surprised. Nothing related to the race is trending on Twitter. Interest by the causal voter btwn last week and this week sharply down.

  111. 111.

    Schlemazel (parmesan rancor)

    @D58826:
    We can hope for a couple of strokes, heart attacks or tertiary syphilis to take Alito, Thomas and/or Scalia.

  113. 113.

    Schlemazel (parmesan rancor)

    @jl:
    no problem at all – Democrats are perfectly happy attacking each other & do it all the time.

  114. 114.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    @Steve in the ATL:

    Yeah, technically Duluth but close enough to Johns Creek. Right now, there’s only one place to early-vote in Gwinnett County on weekdays, and that’s the county election office in Lawrnceville. There are several satellite locations open on weekends. Check ga.sos.gov for your best location. And yes, it was super easy and fast.

  117. 117.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    Looking at a CNN Breaking News headline: “Clinton To Concede To Sanders.” Okay, fine, we all pretty much assumed Bernie would take New Hampshire handily, but is “concede” the right term here?

    (On reflection, I guess technically it is, but I’m put off by anythiing quite so final this early in the primary campaign.)

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