Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

My right to basic bodily autonomy is not on the table. that’s the new deal.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

Republican speaker of the house Mike Johnson is the bland and smiling face of evil.

Human rights are not a matter of opinion!

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

Republicans don’t lie to be believed, they lie to be repeated.

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

So very ready.

Disappointing to see gov. newsom with his finger to the wind.

Today in our ongoing national embarrassment…

Their shamelessness is their super power.

’Where will you hide, Roberts, the laws all being flat?’

Republicans in disarray!

Books are my comfort food!

Is trump is trying to break black America over his knee? signs point to ‘yes’.

Impressively dumb. Congratulations.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

Rupert, come get your orange boy, you petrified old dinosaur turd.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

Motto for the House: Flip 5 and lose none.

Quote tweet friends, screenshot enemies.

With all due respect and assumptions of good faith, please fuck off into the sun.

You are here: Home / Elections / Election 2016 / GOP South Carolina Primary Results Open Thread

GOP South Carolina Primary Results Open Thread

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Current Google/AP topper, with 2% reporting, splits it 32/22/21.5 for Trump/Cruz/Rubio. Fight to claim second place (aka ‘best of losers’) is gonna be fierce, but then, per Nate Cohn, in the NYTimes, yesterday:

If the polls are right, Donald Trump will win South Carolina on Saturday by a double-digit margin.

That could earn him 100 percent of the state’s delegates.

That’s because the state awards its delegates on a winner-take-all basis by congressional district and statewide. So if Mr. Trump wins every congressional district and the statewide vote, he will win all of the state’s 50 delegates….

Reader Interactions

250Comments

  2. 2.

    Keith P.

    At least Rubio has a clear path to victory now – Donald Trump suddenly drops dead of a heart attack. Not bad odds on that, either, since I think most of us could guestimate The Donald’s triglyceride levels just by looking at his chin waddle and complexion.

  3. 3.

    Joel

    Just for the record, the final polling aggregate (using Pollster/Huffpo) for South Carolina was:

    Trump 33.9%
    Cruz 19.3%
    Rubio 15.9%
    Bush 9.7%
    Kasich 8.9%
    Carson 6.0%

    Looks like the polls were just right, with the 6.3% undecideds largely filtering into the Rubio camp.

  6. 6.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    BUT, BUT…… SIMON AND GARFUNKEL!?!/11!^*

    BUT, BUT…….. THE SIXTIES!.^1!1!

  7. 7.

    Corner Stone

    I know he’s a fabulist and all, but when did MSNBC hire Brian Williams to be a stand up comedian to MC these events?

  8. 8.

    Gimlet

    Twitter

    Nevada Democratic Party confirms turnout for Saturday’s caucuses was about 80,000, down from 117,600 in 2008.

  12. 12.

    PeakVT

    May the worst candidate win!

    And then lose somewhere else. ‘Cause a brokered Repuke convention would be a 47-ring circus.

  13. 13.

    jl

    @Corner Stone: I think MSNBC was announced some time ago as a kind of combo purgatory/rehab for Williams before he is purged of his fabulist sins and is allowed back on the big network shows.

  15. 15.

    Baud

    @Gimlet: Consistent with other states so far. Part of it may be that a lot of Dems just expect Hillary to win regardless of Sanders’ surge.

  16. 16.

    JMG

    It’s like Atrios wrote earlier this week For the media (and the political scientists) Rubio wins no matter where he finishes. Party decides, huh? There’s an even older political maxim: A loaded six gun beats any hand in the deck. Trump appears to own the revolver.

  18. 18.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Felonius Monk: Oh, feel the Twerpmentum.

    Ha!

    @JMG: Greg Sargent is having twitter conniptions over the way they’re being into Marco’s declarations of Third is First.

  19. 19.

    sloan

    How awesome is it that the “BUSH LIED, AMERICANS DIED” candidate just got 1/3 of South Carolina Republicans to line up and vote for him?

    Holy crap is that party in trouble.

  22. 22.

    Wrb

    I guess that tonight’s results mean we get a president Trump, the weakest dem wins and the strongest Republlican. Fasten seat belts for the Trump roller
    Uderby presidency. Thunderdome!!

  24. 24.

    Mary G

    Well looks like Jeb is toast. If Marco hangs onto second place, the Establishment will be all over Bush and Kasich to GTFO so they can fluff Rubio’s thinning hair.

  25. 25.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    “I think what we need, when I talk about a political revolution, is bringing millions and millions of people into the political process in a way that does not exist right now,” ~ Sanders

    Yup. The Revolution never came. There’s just not enough Simon and Garfunkle fans left

  27. 27.

    rikyrah

    Peanut has to watch a sports event on tv in order to complete one of her Girl Scout badges. So, I am explaining basketball to her. We are watching TCU vs Iowa State

  28. 28.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    O/T (except that we all, I imagine, feel this way) but remember that adorable little girl sobbing her heart out when she realized President Obama was going to leave office in a few months? Well, POTUS sent a delicious tweet to her grandmother, which just makes me adore him even more, if that were possible:

    Caprina, tell her to dry her tears, because I’m not going anywhere. Once I leave the White House, I’ll still be a citizen just like her. And when she grows up, she can get involved right alongside me. In the meantime, I’ll keep an eye out for her letter, and we’ll always get to celebrate our birthdays together!

    (H/T Digby)

  32. 32.

    Ben

    I don’t see Hillary beating Trump.

    Trump could very well swep the Rust Belt, appealing to Reagan Democrats and white working class voters who feel abandoned by our party’s focus on racial and sexual politics.

    White working class Americans are literally dying off and the best Hillary can offer them is gay marriage.

  33. 33.

    debbie

    I heard more than a few pundits opining that Trump wouldn’t do well in SC because so many in the military lived there, which is why I was so surprised to hear him going off on 9/11. It doesn’t seem have hurt him. Maybe the military isn’t as reliably in the tank for the GOP as they used to be?

  36. 36.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    ‘If Bernie’s going to beat Clinton it’s bc people don’t want a 3rd Obama term.’ — Sanders’s campaign manager Tad Devine

    PLEASE PROCEED, SENATOR

  38. 38.

    jl

    @biz5th: Cruz would never admit to a third party run. If he runs on his own, he’ll call his outfit the Original Conservative Authentic Republican Party, and claim the RNC is the impostor.

  39. 39.

    Ultraviolet Thunder

    Trump’s progress is starting to concern me. His chaos and unpredictability is amusing when the stakes are small. But HRC has already had one stroke, and I really don’t want to see the fate of the country come down to her and The Donald in November.

  43. 43.

    Suzanne

    LMMFAO. I hate the Rubiobot almost as much as I hate Cruz, and I hate both of them waaaaay more than Trump.

    This shit is just nonstop entertainment. Like Jackass. I get it’s even funnier when stoned.

  48. 48.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    Tad Devine has now run 5 losing presidential campaigns (Mondale, Bob Kerrey, Gore, Kerry, Sanders).

    It’s much too early to tell, but a pattern may be emerging.

  50. 50.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @Wrb:
    Almost by definition, if Hillary wins, she is a stronger candidate than Sanders. That is why I have never been too worried about Sanders’ electability. If he could win the nomination, he could compete in the general.

    This model doesn’t hold up quite as well in a nomination split as many ways as the Republicans, but it does suggest the other Republican candidates are even less competent than Trump. Astonishing, but maybe not so much after you look at them.

  52. 52.

    jl

    @dr. bloor: I was hoping for more turmoil among the lower tier establishment GOPers, keeping hope alive for big block in favor of a Rubio/Bush/Kasich something or other. Would keep Bloomberg’s contemplated vanity campaign looking stupid. But OK, let’s hope Rubio does well enough to keep an Establishment hope in the game. I want chaos and confusion in GOP primary for as long as possible. A little too much clarity in the GOP results today for my taste.

  53. 53.

    Heliopause

    Third is a huge win for Rubio, unless he finishes 2nd, in which case 2nd is a huge win. But Jeb’s in the catbird seat at 4th. Gotta feel sorry for poor Trump.

  54. 54.

    Mike J

    @David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:

    Tad Devine has now run 5 losing presidential campaigns (Mondale, Bob Kerrey, Gore, Kerry, Sanders)

    I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been told that Gore ran the worst presidential campaign of all time. Primarily by people who felt he wan’t far enough left.

  58. 58.

    Gvg

    @Ultraviolet Thunder: there are no credible reports Hillary has had a stroke, just republican extremists making stuff up. They aren’t consistent in what they claim either. That’s not to say she isn’t older than I would like but it’s not all that bad. Rove Breitbart and NY Post aren’t my choice to believe and if it was true it would be big news.
    Sanders won’t be VP though because of both of their ages. It will be some one youngish.

  59. 59.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @JPL:
    Trump is more unpopular than the other candidates with Latinos by a whopping 50 points. Yes, 50. Apparently the others are actually in positive territory. It’s not like Republicans had that many Latino voters, but dropping that support to AA levels while increasing minority organizing (which is happening) could be catastrophic for the GOP. He’ll do well with white male racists, but the GOP always does.

  60. 60.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    @divF: Hillary been shot seven times and she ain’t dead.

    Does that mean anything to any one, huh?

    Hillary ain’t meant to die. The only thing that can kill Hillary is Hillary.

    I mean, Hillary was bit by a snake once at summer camp, and after hours of excruciating pain, the snake died.

  63. 63.

    tjm65

    @Gvg: the info I’ve heard is that she had a small subdural bleed, which is not a stroke. And yes I am a doctor, not only on tv….;-)

  64. 64.

    mike in dc

    Carson not dropping out, tells his supporter(s?) this is just the beginning(of the grift, presumably). Kasich staying in until Michigan, at least. The only drama of the night is the winner of Cruz/Rubio, and whether Jeb! finally drops out. But if he stays in, LOLZ. The RNC’s worst case scenario is a prolonged multi-way race through March or even April.

  67. 67.

    Ultraviolet Thunder

    @PsiFighter37:

    He won’t win. In a general election, there is zero way that he can get away withour a ground game or any policy advisors whatsoever.

    Organization is definitely Trump’s big drawback in a general election. He’s been powered by his own mouth so far but that’s not enough to get him to November. As for advisors, I doubt he would feel the lack, needing only his own perfect counsel and judgement. It would be amusing to see the GOP have to hold their noses and run behind him. Hilarious, actually. But random stuff happens. Ask Scalia’s survivors. I don’t want that man that close to the white house.
    As for who I would prefer to Trump, just in case the GOP has a chance, that’s like asking which snake to pick out of the pit. I’d go for the least poisonous, which is probably Jeb! At least he knows how government actually works.

  71. 71.

    Heliopause

    Kasich uncomfortably close to Jeb for 4th place. If Kasich passes him he’ll have to apologize and drop out if he has any honor at all.

  72. 72.

    Anne Laurie

    @Joel:

    Does South Carolina award delegates based on counties?

    By reports linked right in the post at the top here, SC is a ‘winner-take-all’ state. Right now, 40% of the votes are in, Trump gets all 38 delegates with his 34% of the vote.

    Rubio & Cruz are fighting over second place, for bragging rights / momentum in future primaries. Neither of them get any delegates, way it looks now.

  73. 73.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @Mike J:
    Awww, thanks! It is fun. Quite Contrary is a great book, but it’s super dark, and I wanted to write something light and fluffy to get over it. Then Supervillain became my first hit and people begged for sequels.

  74. 74.

    jl

    @Ultraviolet Thunder: Maybe a draft Ahnold movement? At least he is a competent electioneer compared to the other Establishment GOPers.

    But then, by current standards, he is a commie just as much as HRC and Sanders.

    Maybe the GOP will get that desperate? One can hope.
    I guess the RNC bigwigs trying to bring Romney in is something too good to hope for.

  75. 75.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    South Carolina Poll — NBC/WSJ/Marist — Feb. 15-17

    Hillary……………..60%
    Sanders…………32%

    ——————————————————————————————–
    Super Tuesday – 4 days after South Carolina – March 1st

    12 contests

    South (7) Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia,

    North (3) Massachusetts, Minnesota, Vermont,

    West (1) Colorado

    East (1) American Samoa

    The Revolution end is nigh

  76. 76.

    The Dangerman

    @Seebach:

    WATCH. THE. FUCK. OUT

    Indeed; I was convinced there wasn’t a chance in hell that Dubya could get elected (ignoring completely how he got there with the USSC). Trump is a clown but the Right will crawl over shards of glass to vote for him.

  87. 87.

    TallPete

    @Frankensteinbeck:

    Almost by definition, if Hillary wins, she is a stronger candidate than Sanders.

    By definition she is the stronger candidate in the Dem primary, but that certainly doesn’t translate to the general. My concern is her high negatives – over 50%. With a known candidate like HRC, this is a difficult # to move. Fortunately the (R)s are a clown car. Hopefully they elect Cruz – the least electable in the general.

  88. 88.

    jl

    @Anne Laurie: I think half delegates awarded winner-take-all by Congressional District, and half winner-take-all by state. Can’t find an internet page with clear description right now though.

    Edit: but I am sure not proportional by vote tally. So some loser GOPer has to win at least one district or Trump gets all the delegates. I think GOP has a few superdelegates though, but less than Dems.

  93. 93.

    Joel

    @Anne Laurie: It’s winner-take all, but awarded by congressional district in SC; I looked it up.

    If Trump wins all the delegates, it’s because the districts are gerrymandered, which is hilarious because the ‘pubs did that to suppress Democratic voting power. Rubio is actually beating Trump in the Columbia county (where the capitol is located) but the congressional districts around there look like the old Massachusetts Bay borders.

  97. 97.

    Steve in the ATL

    @TallPete: As has been said here many times before, the GOP has been sliming Hillary for 25 years. Her negatives can’t get much worse. If it ends up being Bernie, just wait and see what they do to him. Won’t be pretty, and he has a hell of lot less to run on than Hillary does.

  102. 102.

    JMG

    Matthews just finished a spiel in which he ranted on about how Rubio’s youth would be a big problem for Hillary in the general election, as he’s a shoo-in for the nomination now! It’s beyond satire. They’ll be writing his inaugural address if he ever actually wins a primary

  104. 104.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    Bye-bye, Jeb. I would say “We hardly knew you,” but, alas for you, we knew you all too well.

  105. 105.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    #ObamaAndKids has been trending on Twitter all day (Photos are toooo cute)

    ——————————————————————–.

    Gallup Presidential Approval Ratings:

    Barack Obama (Feb 20, 2016)

    Approve………….50%
    Disapprove…….46%

    George W. Bush (Feb 20, 2008)

    Approve………….31%
    Disapprove…….65%

  108. 108.

    Elie

    Hey, but my guess is that the Bushes aint gonna forget ol Donald anytime soon. Hope he has a reliable food taster…. He not only dissed Jeb, but Dubya and Moma Bush. Nope. They aint about to forget nothin….

  109. 109.

    NotMax

    So how did dragging your odious brother in to SC help? Methinks we have our answer.

    Brink’s haz a sad.

  110. 110.

    Chyron HR

    @lamh36:

    Carson just now: “This is just the beginning.” OF WHAT?

    A thousand different feelings; a plethora of chills all over his body.

  111. 111.

    Highway Rob

    Somewhere a convoy of Brinks! Trucks! drives on into the night, on a poorly lit highway, heading towards… oblivion.

  113. 113.

    mike in dc

    Jeb says “peace out”! I guess it’s just Jeb. now(full stop). Kasich in through at least one Super Tuesday, maybe the second. Carson to continue ripping off supporters and padding the bank accounts of his “fundraisers”. Rubio and Cruz in a deathmatch for second.

  115. 115.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Elizabelle: day-yum… taking Walker’s “get out for the good of the party” advice this late?

    I started McKay Coppins book on the GOP primary field– and put it down an haven’t been compelled to pick it up again– but the weird thing in those first chapters is Jeb Bush being portrayed as a brass-balled heavy weight. The portrayal of Marco as an anxious, big-appetite-bad-teeth wannabe is much easier to believe.

    I hope Barbara is all marble, cold and hard and unforgiving, like Vanessa Redgrave in that movie about the freaky Dupont and the wrestler

  119. 119.

    jl

    @BillinGlendaleCA:

    ” He had the Ted Cruz problem. ”

    I am hoping the GOP gets really and truly desperate.

    The idea of Romney in the wings was not a joke, though. What happened to the ‘draft Romney’ rumors? (Edit: were they rumors, or just a joke on the blogs?)

  121. 121.

    Elizabelle

    As a fellow human, I am glad Jeb! is dropping out. He was just in there getting beaten up. Was not (OK, that) fun to watch.

    He caught a bit when he announced he was dropping the race.

    As for clearing the slate for Rubio: they’re going to have to stuff weights in Marco’s pockets. He is so flyaway.

    Have to laugh at “mainstream” [aka wired for Republicans] media, acting all surprised about Trump’s success and not believing it’s happening. Fox News Nation. You embraced Fox every chance you got; would not call them out; went with the “he said, she said.” Live with it, suckers.

    And pretending that Trump is so out there. How ridiculous of the MSM. Trump’s merely the most entertaining of a crop of horrible people running for the GOP nomination, and in many ways, the most authentic. Aside from Kasich, not one of them is decent or even in an earth orbit. They’re shallow and mean.

  124. 124.

    Catatonia

    Trump hates the Bushes and asswipe Jeb and his schavio nonsense are well and truly deep sided.. I,m going to miss Trump,s invective against this moralizing nullity.

  126. 126.

    PeakVT

    Jebya! would have been smashed by Clinton in November. Kinda sad I won’t actually see that happen now…

  128. 128.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @Elie:
    I don’t know about assassination, but Jeb has impressed me as a vengeful person who seethes with fury at being questioned by a commoner. I’m not sure he’s competent enough to make real trouble, but if the rest of his family is anything like him, yeah, they are already plotting punishment for Donald’s insolence.

  129. 129.

    CaseyL

    This is amazing: the GOP frontrunner, second and third, all know absolutely nothing about how to govern, and care even less. Nada. Zilch.

    I don’t care for Kasich, and JEB is slime, but as Governors they at least know a little bit about how things work.

    Gonna be an interesting election.

  130. 130.

    Elizabelle

    Watching CNN. Dana Bash slobbering over Jeb! Saying he was class personified, the whole campaign. Not just as he left the race. (Paraphrasing; not sure just what she said, but it was knob polishing.)

    Trump up now. Oh boy.

  136. 136.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Objective journalist, one time designated WaPo correspondent on ‘women’s issues’, current colleague of Ron Fournier

    Melinda Henneberger ‏@ MelindaDC 4m4 minutes ago
    Doing the right thing for his party, @ JebBush leaves with “I love you all, God bless you.”

  137. 137.

    Anne Laurie

    @jl:

    I guess the RNC bigwigs trying to bring Romney in is something too good to hope for.

    “People” (professional campaign workers looking for gigs & the horse-race media that listens to them) say that if it comes to a brokered convention, Paul Ryan will step up to save the Party. It’s why he took Boehner’s job, because it would make him the Obvious Choice!!!

    My personal suspicion is that this is only slightly less likely than a winning Bloomberg third-party run, but on the other hand, I’ve given up trying to predict how Repubs will react to anything. These people are nihilists, Donny!

  138. 138.

    Elizabelle

    Do you think some of Trump’s appeal is how attractive his family is? Ivanka is always more prominently featured than Melania (and is heavily pregnant). They look supportive and rich and successful.

    Trump joking about the baby being due any moment.

  142. 142.

    Corner Stone

    I’m going to vote for Trump just due to the fact of so many freakin’ hotties he has on stage with him.

  144. 144.

    Matt McIrvin

    Slooowwww and steady, slooooowwwww and steady! He’s biding his time, to jump back in the race at just the right moment!

  148. 148.

    Elizabelle

    Melania gets to speak. That’s a first, in my limited viewing. Now Ivanka. She is polished and comfortable and on message.

  149. 149.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Remember when it looked like Santorum was gonna fatally wound Willard, and all the smart Republicans were praying for Jeb to come and save the day? Good times.

  150. 150.

    TallPete

    @Steve in the ATL: maybe so, but I’m not convinced of that. There are plenty of liberal minded voters (and most independents) that do not like HRC. Most voters don’t know much about Sanders, and he doesn’t have allot of skeletons in the closet.

  155. 155.

    Ultraviolet Thunder

    One factor that’s not getting much play during the primaries: the economy. A lot of work has gone into analyzing past elections and how the state (and more importantly the trend) of the economy correlates to the success of the incumbent party. Generally, if the economy is in decline in the last 6 months of the year, it’s worse for the incumbent party. People ‘s state of mind appears to be influenced more by the sign of the first derivative than the level. Rising or level is OK for incumbents. If the economy is unstable or declining, incumbents do worse.
    Nobody can predict the economy with any accuracy, but the long leading signs of a decline in 2016 are for the most part absent. This is good news for HRC and bad news for insurgent candidates.

  157. 157.

    Chyron HR

    @NR:

    Sure, Dumbocraps like Hitlery, but what about real Americans?

    The best shilling Tad Devine can buy, ladies and gentlemen.

  158. 158.

    msdc

    This is no comment on today’s results in Nevada, but good lord, who is the idiot who designed the caucus format?

    “Hey, you know how primaries give people all day to vote and then report the results in a couple hours? Let’s do the exact fucking opposite of that.”

  164. 164.

    Elizabelle

    @Ohio Mom: Totes agree with you on Kasich. Not a fan, but the others are so shallow and awful, he comes across better in comparison with the shabbiest and least qualified GOP field I have ever seen.

  165. 165.

    TaMara (BHF)

    Holy crap. They really are going to nominate Trump.

    Meanwhile at Balloon-Juice another Hil vs Bern thread devolves into Lord of the Flies (I’m only guessing as the comment count is at 350+ and I bailed at about 100).

    I believe John could just rerun a few of his 2008 posts on keeping the eye on the prize – anyone but one of the Republican scary clowns.

  167. 167.

    Elizabelle

    Trump calling Obama a “political hack.” Stay classy, Donald.

    Pledging to repeal Obamacare, and do something better and cheaper. Uh huh.

  169. 169.

    Elizabelle

    @TaMara (BHF): The Lord of the Flies shit is why I pretty much lurk now.

    Saw this in 2008, and it was awful then. Why can’t Democrats get along? It’s appalling.

  170. 170.

    Corner Stone

    @TaMara (BHF):

    I believe John could just rerun a few of his 2008 posts on keeping the eye on the prize – anyone but one of the Republican scary clowns.

    Sorry but Cole was irrational for almost all of the 2007-08 D primaries. He gets no love here for his inability to separate out his programmed hatred of all things Hillary.
    IOW, he was waaaaayyyy down the list of reasoned voices.

  171. 171.

    catclub

    @Ultraviolet Thunder: This. The fact that the GOP candidates are not saying with any conviction that the economy is down the tubes is great news.

    Hillary has already rehearsed the lines : ” the last time the GOP had the presidency they ran the economy into the shitter. Don’t give them a chance to do it again. ” (it works best if Bush is the GOP nominee, but that ain’t happening.)

  173. 173.

    PeakVT

    By how much does Rubotico need to over-perform tonight before the press preemptively declares him President? 10%? 8%?

  175. 175.

    JPL

    Trump sounds as though he is a crazy maniac off his meds. Even though he has always been egotistical and narcissistic, he seemed to make sense in the olden days. Maybe my memory is failing me, but the guy on stage is nuts.

  177. 177.

    beth

    So Trump’s going to put our most successful, top businessmen in charge of getting our jobs back from China. Aren’t they the greedy bastards who sent the jobs there in the first place? Trump talks like China snuck into the country, put a gun to Apple’s head and forced them to make IPhones in China.

  179. 179.

    qwerty42

    @Ohio Mom:

    Please, Kasich is NOT decent, he *is* shallow and mean. He would be the third term of GW.

    Yeah. He is way on the right. He still seems the most “normal” one they have.

  183. 183.

    Corner Stone

    @beth:

    So Trump’s going to put our most successful, top businessmen in charge of getting our jobs back from China. Aren’t they the greedy bastards who sent the jobs there in the first place?

    I thought that was hilarious. “Who am I going to put in charge of trade deals? The guys who fucked you for the last 20 years! YEAH! FUCK YEAH!”

  184. 184.

    divF

    @catclub: My favorite is the one of Obama holding the newborn twins, one in each arm. His look of profound concentration is so real and human.

  187. 187.

    Heliopause

    Rubio just crushing it right now. Think of it this way; if you scored 22% at the roulette wheel that’s a win, right? Rubio wins.

    And don’t go to sleep on Jeb. Suspending is the right strategic move.

  190. 190.

    Catatonia

    @Elizabelle:
    I thought the same thing. His daughter looks reAdy to step into the putative FLOTUS-in-waiting role. Trumpenfuhrer!s poor wife just looked as if she,d rather be walking the dog or taking the Bentley in for the 50k checkup.

  191. 191.

    Ultraviolet Thunder

    @JPL:

    Trump sounds as though he is a crazy maniac off his meds. Even though he has always been egotistical and narcissistic, he seemed to make sense in the olden days. Maybe my memory is failing me, but the guy on stage is nuts.

    One thing Trump does really sets off my alarm bells: he keeps saying ‘believe me’ and ‘take my word for it’. In my experience dealing with highly untrustworthy people, they all say that. Take it on my word and nothing more. It tells me that person is a lying fraud, and I can never trust someone who makes that appeal.
    I mean, we know he’s sleazy and dishonest, but this rhetorical crutch of his is why I FEEL that way about him.

  192. 192.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Joel: @Anne Laurie: Its a modified winner take all. There are 50 delegates at stake. The overall statewide winner, and plurality counts, gets 26 of those. There are 3 automatic allocations. The remaining 21 are allocated to the winner of each Congressional district. It is entirely possible/plausible that Trump will take all of them. According to the interactive map Senator Rubio is leading in two counties, that’s counties, not Congressional districts, and one county has not reported any results yet. Depending on how large the two counties that Senator Rubio is leading are in relation to the overall Congressional district he’s in, it is possible that he could be awarded 6 delegates. Minus Greenwood County, which is the one that hasn’t reported any returns yet, Donald Trump has won/is projected to win every county but Richland and Charleston Counties. There are two counties in District 1: Charleston and the one to its immediate southwest. Richland County is divided into two Congressional districts: Districts 6 and 2. Both have multiple counties within the district. Greenwood is part of District 3, which is also a large, multi-county district. Based on the Congressional district map I’d be surprised if Donald Trump doesn’t walk away with all 50 delegates.

  193. 193.

    Anoniminous

    I’ve been sitting here laughing my ass off for a good 15 minutes. Trump wins SC, Cruz comes in third, the Boy DipShit comes in second and tops the Corporate/Establishment Wing poll, and JEB! is out. The GOP is imploding in a cloud of derp.

  195. 195.

    sharl

    @Mike J: Heh. Someone replied to that Ralston tweet to ask, ‘isn’t that a correct pronunciation after all, since ‘Nevada’ is a Spanish word/term?’ Wikipedia says yes (Nevada = “snow-covered”). So Trump’s just correcting a linguistic cultural appropriation of sorts.

    See?!? The Donald isn’t racist after all!!

  196. 196.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    Just watched a few minutes of Trump before *click*, but it occurred to me during that brief time that I have never seen him look happy. His facial expressions are either inchoate rage, demented off-the-wall crazy, or smirky smugness. I’m not sure I’ve ever, EVER, seen a genuine smile on his face (i.e., one that reaches the eyes as opposed to merely turning up the corners of the mouth). Ronald Reagan, give him his due, really did communicate optimism and cheerfulness. Trump communicates fear and anger and privilege. Totally apart from his appalling policy positions, is this really what the American voter wants for the next four years? Really?

  200. 200.

    JPL

    Rubio is once again giving his I almost won speech. Congratulations will be forthcoming, I’m sure.

  202. 202.

    Highway Rob

    Listening to Rubio’s crowd shouting “Marco! Marco!,” did anyone else think “Polo!”?

  203. 203.

    Adam L Silverman

    @jl: Here’s the rules:
    frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/10/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_14.html

    SOUTH CAROLINA

    Election type: primary
    Date: February 20
    Number of delegates: 50 [26 at-large, 21 congressional district, 3 automatic]
    Allocation method: winner-take-most/winner-take-all by congressional district
    Threshold to qualify for delegates: n/a
    2012: winner-take-most/winner-take-all by congressional district

    —
    South Carolina is unique among its carve-out state brethren. Sure, the presidential primary in the Palmetto state is First in the South, but the South Carolina primary represents the lone exception to the proportional delegate allocation that the other three states — Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada — use. Actually, that distinction means South Carolina is the only non-proportional state (at least by the Republican National Committee’s standards) before March 15 opens the post-proportionlity period of the 2016 presidential primary calendar.

    The other three carve-out states utilize an allocation system that proportionally allocates their respective shares of delegates based on the statewide result of the primary/caucus. South Carolina, on the other hand, is a state where the distinction between at-large and congressional district delegates matters. The key here is that in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, the statewide vote affects a pool of delegates that includes at-large, congressional district and sometimes automatic delegates. In South Carolina the pool is separated. The statewide vote dictates who wins the 29 at-large and automatic delegates, and the results in the state’s seven congressional districts directs the allocation of each district’s respective three delegates.

    If a candidate wins the statewide vote, that candidate claims all 29 delegates. If a candidate receives a plurality in one of the seven congressional districts, that candidate is awarded all three delegates from that district.

    A statewide win means that the resulting allocation of delegates is weighted in favor of the winner. Said candidate would not only claim over half of the available delegates (29 out of 50), but would also be well-positioned on the congressional district level as well. Winning statewide tends to but does not necessarily mean doing well in the congressional district vote. While Newt Gingrich won South Carolina in 2012, he lost one congressional district and its two delegates to Mitt Romney. Similarly, John McCain won South Carolina in 2008, but split the then six congressional district with Mike Huckabee, yielding the former Arkansas governor 6 delegates.

    In both cases, the winner left the South Carolina primary with at least a three to one delegate advantage over the next closest competitor. And in Gingrich’s case, it was more than 10:1.

    The South Carolina Republican allocation method, then, is built to advantage the winner more than a strictly proportional method of allocation, but less than a strictly winner-take-all scheme. It should be noted however, if a candidate wins statewide and in each of the seven congressional districts, then South Carolina essentially becomes a winner-take-all state.

    —
    One additional area where there is some observed variation between states concerns how and how long delegates are bound to particular candidates at the national convention. The South Carolina Republican version of this has the delegates voting for the statewide winner or the winner of the congressional district on the first ballot only. If that candidate/those candidates is/are not nominated then those delegates are bound to the second or third place finisher statewide or at the congressional district level. If none of those three are nominated, then the delegates are unbound.

    Presumably, the system works the same way for candidates who may have won South Carolina delegates, but who subsequently withdraw from the race. Those candidates are less likely — obviously — to have their name placed in nomination at the convention in Cleveland. But should a winning candidate withdraw, then their delegates are then bound to the second place finisher. If that candidate drops out, then the delegates go to the third top vote-getter. In both cases, that delegate transference is dependent upon the candidate ultimately being nominated. If not, then those delegates will be unbound free agents.

  204. 204.

    lgerard

    Remember when the winner of the 2012 South Carolina Republican primary said that it was obvious that he was going to be the nominee of the party?

    Whatever happened to that guy?

  207. 207.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Ultraviolet Thunder:

    Nobody can predict the economy with any accuracy, but the long leading signs of a decline in 2016 are for the most part absent.

    Really? Lots of scary stuff going on overseas, I thought, and the latest iteration of the tech bubble is deflating. If we’re lucky the crash will wait until after the election and just hobble the administration of whoever gets elected.

  210. 210.

    Highway Rob

    Marco, you already look like a kid wearing his dad’s suit. Referring to yourself as one of the “children of the Reagan revolution” isn’t helping.

  212. 212.

    Mike J

    @sharl:

    So Trump’s just correcting a linguistic cultural appropriation of sorts.

    Had he been at a Bernie rally they would have shouted, “English only!” at him.

  214. 214.

    Mandalay

    “Twenty first century…”
    “Ronald Reagan…”
    “Greatest military in the world…”
    “Son of a bartender…”

    Jesus Christ.

  219. 219.

    Mandalay

    Rubio is talking about himself in the third person. That’s always a cast iron guarantee that the speaker is an asshole.

  220. 220.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Anoniminous: The entire SC primary system, and where it sits in the GOP primary process, was created by Lee Atwater and another SC political giant as a firewall for the establishment GOP against an insurgent. Its original beneficiary was President Bush 41. People never learn: eventually the monstrous creation always gets loose and goes on a rampage against its creator and everyone else.

  223. 223.

    PaulW

    Jeb? is suspending his campaign, so THAT particular nightmare scenario – another GODDAMN BUSH in the White House – is over.

    However, Trump is still winning comparable to his polling numbers, which means he’s on pace to dominate most of the state primaries. And he’s this much closer to being a legitimate nominee for the Presidency in one of the scariest nightmares we could ever have in our nation’s history.

    But none of that is going to compare to the utter annoyance we’re going to get now that Rubio is “winning” in Second Place. He’s “winning” without actually leading or getting the delegates needed to really really win, and the goddamn media is going to parade him around like the Second Coming of Reagan, all because he’s in SECOND PLACE. /headdesk

  226. 226.

    Anne Laurie

    @Elizabelle:

    Why can’t Democrats get along? It’s appalling.

    It’s our tradition!

    Don’t know if you’ve ever read any Finley Peter Dunne, but his Mr. Dooley books should be available electronically. The Democrats were just as fecklessly disorganized back in the first Gilded Age, but we still managed to break the plutocrats’ hold… temporarily. We’ll do it again, this time.

    (Republicanism is like shingles — once the virus is in your system, it never completely goes away!)

  227. 227.

    Ultraviolet Thunder

    @Matt McIrvin:
    Unemployment, inflation, wage growth are all really solid. These are the things that affect people’s overall sense of economic well being, and inform their attitude toward incumbent parties. Yes, offshore factors could affect us eventually but these things take time to percolate through to our fundamentals. And Europe and Asia have been a drag on us to some extent all along, as their recovery from the 2008 recession has been slower than ours.

  228. 228.

    catclub

    @Matt McIrvin:

    Really? Lots of scary stuff going on overseas, I thought, and the latest iteration of the tech bubble is deflating.

    Go check out the guy at Calculated Risk. He will calm your nerves. Search for “Bill McBride recession call”
    Things are not great. but unemployment at 5% and holding is far better that 8% and rising.
    House prices had been falling for two years from the peak in 2006. Now house prices are slowly rising.

  229. 229.

    Adam L Silverman

    @kc: I wouldn’t freak to badly. As I’ve written here before I expect that one of the Castro brothers (Julian and Joaquin) will be a strong contender to join the ticket should Secretary Clinton get the nomination. I’d expect Senator Sanders to also pick someone younger. There is some good, younger elected talent out there but it doesn’t get a lot of coverage because the GOP controls both chambers of Congress and so many state executives and legislatures. You’ve got Congresswoman Duckworth, there’s several other younger, elected Democratic officials at the Congressional and state levels who are also vets of Iraq and Afghanistan. Just because they aren’t getting a lot of press doesn’t mean they’re not there.

  232. 232.

    Ruckus

    @Ohio Mom:
    @qwerty42:
    This. A thousand times this.
    Have said it before, Kasich is a hard right republican. Very hard, very right. He talks a good, closer to center game but he is absolutely no better than any of the rest of them. Not by any measure. He somewhat reminds me of W.F. Buckley, who could talk like an intellectual about how all the things he liked on the right were just and proper. It was all bullshit, none of it was just or proper. But he spun it with big words and pomposity. Kasich is no Buckley for sure but people think he’s got some reality to him but he doesn’t, he’s all bullshit.

  234. 234.

    sharl

    @Mike J: I saw that. A number of Bernie folks are skeptical, and claiming it was GOP (or even pro-Hillary) ratfvckers, but they haven’t provided any evidence to support their skepticism. I replied to one guy saying I’ve seen plenty of self-described economic liberals who spew racist shit, so I’m not surprised.

    AlGiordano ‏@AlGiordano 4 hours ago

    Train. Your. Troops. Senator.

    Lorie Cavin ‏@LorieCavin 4 hours ago

    @AlGiordano 1st round of Camp Obama was in August, 2007 in STL MO. Great training made the difference. I never left OFA.

  235. 235.

    Mike J

    @Baud: I wish I was a little bit taller, I wish I was a baller, I wish I had a girl who looked good, I would call her, I wish I had a rabbit in a hat with a bat, And a six four Impala

  236. 236.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Baud: It does show a repeated pattern that some jobs, specifically having to sleep with Donald Trump, will only be done by foreigners and immigrants.

  238. 238.

    I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet

    @Ruckus: Kasich’s behavior during his interview with the editorial board with FitzGerald shows that he believes he’s entitled to be a jerk. He acted like a wannabe petty tyrant who has no respect for anyone who opposes him. He’s dangerous.

    I’m sorry that Ohio has had to put up with him so long. He’s done a lot of damage and would be a disaster as President.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  239. 239.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Baud: There is a possibility, I don’t know how good of one, that we will, in 2017, have the first First Lady to ever pose nude and have the pictures widely distributed on the Internet. It really is a brave new world.

  240. 240.

    Ruckus

    @Ultraviolet Thunder:
    It tells me that person is a lying fraud, and I can never trust someone who makes that appeal.

    Sounds exactly like a used car salesman. “Trust me, this 12 yr old car only has 25 thousand on it, was owned by a little old lady who took lavish care of it. What’s that? Of course it still has a rental car sticker in the window but trust me.”

  244. 244.

    Mandalay

    @Adam L Silverman:

    As I’ve written here before I expect that one of the Castro brothers (Julian and Joaquin) will be a strong contender to join the ticket should Secretary Clinton get the nomination.

    I thought it was an open secret that Julian Castro already has the job if he wants it.

    But he’s almost too good a choice. You want your VP candidate to boost your vote, but you don’t want voters wishing that the VP candidate was running for president instead.

  245. 245.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Baud: If you’re discussing Mrs. Brown in a black bikini in a very bizarre music video from the 1980s, its not even close.
    youtube.com/watch?v=QLvwc3W_KwM

    If you’re discussing his own pictorial history, I’m not sure it really applies as Mrs. Brown isn’t running for president.

  250. 250.

    mclaren

    @beth:

    So Trump’s going to put our most successful, top businessmen in charge of getting our jobs back from China. Aren’t they the greedy bastards who sent the jobs there in the first place? Trump talks like China snuck into the country, put a gun to Apple’s head and forced them to make IPhones in China.

    Bingo.

    This is why Trump will be toast if he gets the nomination. Hillary or Bernie will eat this stupid egomaniacal untrustworthy bastard alive.

    They’ll just rattle off the long long long list of undocumented immigrants working for below minimum wage at Trump’s hotels and tell the audience, “Sure, that’s what Donald Trump plans to do about restricting immigration.” Then they’ll recite the laundry list of companies offshoring American jobs and explain “Now Donald wants to put the people running these companies in charge of getting our jobs back. That’s like a policeman putting the burglar who smashed the jewelry store window in charge of getting the loot back.”
    And then all they’ll have to do is play a few clips of Trump ranting, and ask “Do you really want this guy’s finger on the nuclear button?”

    Game over.

    Landslide win for the Democrats.

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