NH won't support a candidate until they've met them twice
SC won't support a candidate until they've spread 2 rumors about them— Wyeth Ruthven (@wyethwire) February 20, 2016
With 0.5 percent of votes recorded, Donald Trump is projected to win South Carolina pic.twitter.com/Y6zJG1R4aH
— Washington Post (@washingtonpost) February 21, 2016
Current Google/AP topper, with 2% reporting, splits it 32/22/21.5 for Trump/Cruz/Rubio. Fight to claim second place (aka ‘best of losers’) is gonna be fierce, but then, per Nate Cohn, in the NYTimes, yesterday:
If the polls are right, Donald Trump will win South Carolina on Saturday by a double-digit margin.
That could earn him 100 percent of the state’s delegates.
That’s because the state awards its delegates on a winner-take-all basis by congressional district and statewide. So if Mr. Trump wins every congressional district and the statewide vote, he will win all of the state’s 50 delegates….
GOP Primary Turnout, 2012
White: 97.97%
Nonwhite: 2.03%— Wyeth Ruthven (@wyethwire) February 20, 2016
GOP Primary Turnout
2012: 603K
2008: 445K
2000: 573K— Wyeth Ruthven (@wyethwire) February 20, 2016
Lots of ink will be spilled on who beat expectations in SC, but person that comes in 3rd will prob get as many delegates as person in last:0
— Dan Pfeiffer (@danpfeiffer) February 19, 2016
PsiFighter37
Hahahahaha.
I hope Rubio finishes 4th.
Keith P.
At least Rubio has a clear path to victory now – Donald Trump suddenly drops dead of a heart attack. Not bad odds on that, either, since I think most of us could guestimate The Donald’s triglyceride levels just by looking at his chin waddle and complexion.
Joel
Just for the record, the final polling aggregate (using Pollster/Huffpo) for South Carolina was:
Trump 33.9%
Cruz 19.3%
Rubio 15.9%
Bush 9.7%
Kasich 8.9%
Carson 6.0%
Looks like the polls were just right, with the 6.3% undecideds largely filtering into the Rubio camp.
kc
I hope Jeb is last.
jl
I think BC does better Trump cartoons than the WaPo.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
BUT, BUT…… SIMON AND GARFUNKEL!?!/11!^*
BUT, BUT…….. THE SIXTIES!.^1!1!
Corner Stone
I know he’s a fabulist and all, but when did MSNBC hire Brian Williams to be a stand up comedian to MC these events?
Gimlet
Twitter
Nevada Democratic Party confirms turnout for Saturday’s caucuses was about 80,000, down from 117,600 in 2008.
kc
@kc:
Nvm, I mistyped my own email addy. Sorry.
Felonius Monk
@PsiFighter37:
Oh, feel the Twerpmentum.
hitchhiker
Every time I look at the R race I start laughing.
PeakVT
May the worst candidate win!
And then lose somewhere else. ‘Cause a brokered Repuke convention would be a 47-ring circus.
jl
@Corner Stone: I think MSNBC was announced some time ago as a kind of combo purgatory/rehab for Williams before he is purged of his fabulist sins and is allowed back on the big network shows.
debbie
@PeakVT:
Multiple votes with all that untapped anger? Showtime!
Baud
@Gimlet: Consistent with other states so far. Part of it may be that a lot of Dems just expect Hillary to win regardless of Sanders’ surge.
JMG
It’s like Atrios wrote earlier this week For the media (and the political scientists) Rubio wins no matter where he finishes. Party decides, huh? There’s an even older political maxim: A loaded six gun beats any hand in the deck. Trump appears to own the revolver.
debbie
@Baud:
I’ve read where the SC primary turnout was heavier than in the past. Driven by enthusiasm or fear?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Ha!
@JMG: Greg Sargent is having twitter conniptions over the way they’re being into Marco’s declarations of Third is First.
sloan
How awesome is it that the “BUSH LIED, AMERICANS DIED” candidate just got 1/3 of South Carolina Republicans to line up and vote for him?
Holy crap is that party in trouble.
rikyrah
Well well……Trump wins….
Hmmmmmm
Felonius Monk
@debbie:
More likely, indigestion. You can only digest so much bullshit.
Wrb
I guess that tonight’s results mean we get a president Trump, the weakest dem wins and the strongest Republlican. Fasten seat belts for the Trump roller
Uderby presidency. Thunderdome!!
sigaba
This ends well for no one.
Mary G
Well looks like Jeb is toast. If Marco hangs onto second place, the Establishment will be all over Bush and Kasich to GTFO so they can fluff Rubio’s thinning hair.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Yup. The Revolution never came. There’s just not enough Simon and Garfunkle fans left
Corner Stone
@sigaba: It ends well for the country.
rikyrah
Peanut has to watch a sports event on tv in order to complete one of her Girl Scout badges. So, I am explaining basketball to her. We are watching TCU vs Iowa State
SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel
O/T (except that we all, I imagine, feel this way) but remember that adorable little girl sobbing her heart out when she realized President Obama was going to leave office in a few months? Well, POTUS sent a delicious tweet to her grandmother, which just makes me adore him even more, if that were possible:
(H/T Digby)
Chyron HR
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
Simon and Garfunkel are the poetry of drugs and promiscuous sex. Honey, they’re ON DRUGS.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
BUT BUT…… FREE TACOS!!/1!?!/1
Corner Stone
@Wrb: Happily the hyperlink in your handle goes to http://delete
Good advice for all your stupid fucking comments.
Ben
I don’t see Hillary beating Trump.
Trump could very well swep the Rust Belt, appealing to Reagan Democrats and white working class voters who feel abandoned by our party’s focus on racial and sexual politics.
White working class Americans are literally dying off and the best Hillary can offer them is gay marriage.
debbie
I heard more than a few pundits opining that Trump wouldn’t do well in SC because so many in the military lived there, which is why I was so surprised to hear him going off on 9/11. It doesn’t seem have hurt him. Maybe the military isn’t as reliably in the tank for the GOP as they used to be?
Ohio Mom
@sloan: How awesome? VERY.
I love seeing people grow and change.
biz5th
When does Ted Cruz start his 3rd party run?
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
PLEASE PROCEED, SENATOR
JPL
@biz5th: Hopefully soon.
jl
@biz5th: Cruz would never admit to a third party run. If he runs on his own, he’ll call his outfit the Original Conservative Authentic Republican Party, and claim the RNC is the impostor.
Ultraviolet Thunder
Trump’s progress is starting to concern me. His chaos and unpredictability is amusing when the stakes are small. But HRC has already had one stroke, and I really don’t want to see the fate of the country come down to her and The Donald in November.
Chyron HR
@Ben:
Can somebody let Jim Webb know his supporter got out of the yard again?
PeakVT
New troll, or old troll with new name?
No, no, I’m not talking about the primaries…
Baud
@Ben: No one can stop Trump. Just ask srv.
Suzanne
LMMFAO. I hate the Rubiobot almost as much as I hate Cruz, and I hate both of them waaaaay more than Trump.
This shit is just nonstop entertainment. Like Jackass. I get it’s even funnier when stoned.
Baud
@Ultraviolet Thunder: Which Republican would you prefer?
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@Chyron HR: Feelin’ Groovy! ?
dr. bloor
3-5-3, BYOTCHEZ!!! RUBIO WILL BE INAUGURATED TOMRROW, THANK YOU!
PsiFighter37
@Ultraviolet Thunder: He won’t win. In a general election, there is zero way that he can get away withour a ground game or any policy advisors whatsoever.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Tad Devine has now run 5 losing presidential campaigns (Mondale, Bob Kerrey, Gore, Kerry, Sanders).
It’s much too early to tell, but a pattern may be emerging.
divF
@Ultraviolet Thunder: Have you looked at photos of The Donald? He looks physically unwholesome and unwell. I’d be more worried about him dropping dead than I would Hillary.
Frankensteinbeck
@Wrb:
Almost by definition, if Hillary wins, she is a stronger candidate than Sanders. That is why I have never been too worried about Sanders’ electability. If he could win the nomination, he could compete in the general.
This model doesn’t hold up quite as well in a nomination split as many ways as the Republicans, but it does suggest the other Republican candidates are even less competent than Trump. Astonishing, but maybe not so much after you look at them.
JPL
@PsiFighter37: Trump is going to attract more whackos to the polls than ever before. The repubs think they can control him, so they will also vote.
jl
@dr. bloor: I was hoping for more turmoil among the lower tier establishment GOPers, keeping hope alive for big block in favor of a Rubio/Bush/Kasich something or other. Would keep Bloomberg’s contemplated vanity campaign looking stupid. But OK, let’s hope Rubio does well enough to keep an Establishment hope in the game. I want chaos and confusion in GOP primary for as long as possible. A little too much clarity in the GOP results today for my taste.
Heliopause
Third is a huge win for Rubio, unless he finishes 2nd, in which case 2nd is a huge win. But Jeb’s in the catbird seat at 4th. Gotta feel sorry for poor Trump.
Mike J
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been told that Gore ran the worst presidential campaign of all time. Primarily by people who felt he wan’t far enough left.
dr. bloor
@divF: Nonsense. Yams last forever when you keep them in an environment similar to one found in your typical root cellar.
Joel
Does South Carolina award delegates based on counties? If so, Rubio will net one, maybe two delegates. Trump gets the rest.
Iowa Old Lady
Boy, Rubio and Cruz are close.
Gvg
@Ultraviolet Thunder: there are no credible reports Hillary has had a stroke, just republican extremists making stuff up. They aren’t consistent in what they claim either. That’s not to say she isn’t older than I would like but it’s not all that bad. Rove Breitbart and NY Post aren’t my choice to believe and if it was true it would be big news.
Sanders won’t be VP though because of both of their ages. It will be some one youngish.
Frankensteinbeck
@JPL:
Trump is more unpopular than the other candidates with Latinos by a whopping 50 points. Yes, 50. Apparently the others are actually in positive territory. It’s not like Republicans had that many Latino voters, but dropping that support to AA levels while increasing minority organizing (which is happening) could be catastrophic for the GOP. He’ll do well with white male racists, but the GOP always does.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@divF: Hillary been shot seven times and she ain’t dead.
Does that mean anything to any one, huh?
Hillary ain’t meant to die. The only thing that can kill Hillary is Hillary.
I mean, Hillary was bit by a snake once at summer camp, and after hours of excruciating pain, the snake died.
Seebach
@Ultraviolet Thunder: People always say “It can happen here” and yet still deny Trump.
WATCH. THE. FUCK. OUT
BBA
@PsiFighter37: Doesn’t the RNC have an obligation to support their candidate?
tjm65
@Gvg: the info I’ve heard is that she had a small subdural bleed, which is not a stroke. And yes I am a doctor, not only on tv….;-)
mike in dc
Carson not dropping out, tells his supporter(s?) this is just the beginning(of the grift, presumably). Kasich staying in until Michigan, at least. The only drama of the night is the winner of Cruz/Rubio, and whether Jeb! finally drops out. But if he stays in, LOLZ. The RNC’s worst case scenario is a prolonged multi-way race through March or even April.
Joel
@Seebach: Cruz belongs with Trump in the “scary” column. The other fuckers are just avaricious.
dr. bloor
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: There’s a Chuck Norris joke here somewhere.
Ultraviolet Thunder
@PsiFighter37:
Organization is definitely Trump’s big drawback in a general election. He’s been powered by his own mouth so far but that’s not enough to get him to November. As for advisors, I doubt he would feel the lack, needing only his own perfect counsel and judgement. It would be amusing to see the GOP have to hold their noses and run behind him. Hilarious, actually. But random stuff happens. Ask Scalia’s survivors. I don’t want that man that close to the white house.
As for who I would prefer to Trump, just in case the GOP has a chance, that’s like asking which snake to pick out of the pit. I’d go for the least poisonous, which is probably Jeb! At least he knows how government actually works.
lamh36
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Wow.
Mike J
@Frankensteinbeck: (completely OT) Loaded PDTMPIASV onto my tablet this morning. Fun! I’m only 300 out of 500 pages, but I look forwards to finishing it tonight.
Heliopause
Kasich uncomfortably close to Jeb for 4th place. If Kasich passes him he’ll have to apologize and drop out if he has any honor at all.
Anne Laurie
@Joel:
By reports linked right in the post at the top here, SC is a ‘winner-take-all’ state. Right now, 40% of the votes are in, Trump gets all 38 delegates with his 34% of the vote.
Rubio & Cruz are fighting over second place, for bragging rights / momentum in future primaries. Neither of them get any delegates, way it looks now.
Frankensteinbeck
@Mike J:
Awww, thanks! It is fun. Quite Contrary is a great book, but it’s super dark, and I wanted to write something light and fluffy to get over it. Then Supervillain became my first hit and people begged for sequels.
jl
@Ultraviolet Thunder: Maybe a draft Ahnold movement? At least he is a competent electioneer compared to the other Establishment GOPers.
But then, by current standards, he is a commie just as much as HRC and Sanders.
Maybe the GOP will get that desperate? One can hope.
I guess the RNC bigwigs trying to bring Romney in is something too good to hope for.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
South Carolina Poll — NBC/WSJ/Marist — Feb. 15-17
Hillary……………..60%
Sanders…………32%
——————————————————————————————–
Super Tuesday – 4 days after South Carolina – March 1st
12 contests
South (7) Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia,
North (3) Massachusetts, Minnesota, Vermont,
West (1) Colorado
East (1) American Samoa
The
Revolutionend is nighThe Dangerman
@Seebach:
Indeed; I was convinced there wasn’t a chance in hell that Dubya could get elected (ignoring completely how he got there with the USSC). Trump is a clown but the Right will crawl over shards of glass to vote for him.
Elizabelle
Jeb! gonna Suspend!
Yee haw.
dr. bloor
Miss Lindsay appears to be morphing into Truman Capote.
Baud
@Elizabelle:
Sweet.
raven
Pitty Pat on with Jeb.
AMF asshole.
Corner Stone
WTF?
Highway Rob
Holy hell, Graham sounded like he was withdrawing from the race on Jeb!’s behalf.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@dr. bloor: plus dialog from old movie
Wrb
@Corner Stone damn, I actually rember you and your “stupid fucking comments” made during the Obamacare debate. You should be proud of being so memorable.
dr. bloor
Delivered like a man who can’t wait to get the fuck out.
raven
@Wrb: Hey motherfucker, lose yourself.
TallPete
@Frankensteinbeck:
By definition she is the stronger candidate in the Dem primary, but that certainly doesn’t translate to the general. My concern is her high negatives – over 50%. With a known candidate like HRC, this is a difficult # to move. Fortunately the (R)s are a clown car. Hopefully they elect Cruz – the least electable in the general.
jl
@Anne Laurie: I think half delegates awarded winner-take-all by Congressional District, and half winner-take-all by state. Can’t find an internet page with clear description right now though.
Edit: but I am sure not proportional by vote tally. So some loser GOPer has to win at least one district or Trump gets all the delegates. I think GOP has a few superdelegates though, but less than Dems.
Corner Stone
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Yeah. That was something.
Renie
JEB? IS OUT!!!
JPL
Jeb’s out..
Wrb
@raven: why so?
Joel
@Anne Laurie: It’s winner-take all, but awarded by congressional district in SC; I looked it up.
If Trump wins all the delegates, it’s because the districts are gerrymandered, which is hilarious because the ‘pubs did that to suppress Democratic voting power. Rubio is actually beating Trump in the Columbia county (where the capitol is located) but the congressional districts around there look like the old Massachusetts Bay borders.
raven
Bye bye douche, take WRB with you.
BBA
What was so bad about smoke-filled rooms, besides the poor ventilation?
lamh36
CNN reporting Jeb is suspending his campaign
Steve in the ATL
@TallPete: As has been said here many times before, the GOP has been sliming Hillary for 25 years. Her negatives can’t get much worse. If it ends up being Bernie, just wait and see what they do to him. Won’t be pretty, and he has a hell of lot less to run on than Hillary does.
BillinGlendaleCA
@jl:
He has the Ted Cruz problem.
Matt McIrvin
David Kurtz on TPM: “Did Trump Finally Move Us Past Sept. 11?”
I don’t know, David, maybe ask a Muslim immigrant and get back to me?
Corner Stone
@Wrb: I’m sure you really, truly, have something to say. Oh, wait. No, you don’t.
MomSense
JEB?! Is out!! Ha!
JMG
Matthews just finished a spiel in which he ranted on about how Rubio’s youth would be a big problem for Hillary in the general election, as he’s a shoo-in for the nomination now! It’s beyond satire. They’ll be writing his inaugural address if he ever actually wins a primary
sharl
@Renie: Momma Babs is gonna kick his ass.
SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel
Bye-bye, Jeb. I would say “We hardly knew you,” but, alas for you, we knew you all too well.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
#ObamaAndKids has been trending on Twitter all day (Photos are toooo cute)
——————————————————————–.
Gallup Presidential Approval Ratings:
Barack Obama (Feb 20, 2016)
Approve………….50%
Disapprove…….46%
George W. Bush (Feb 20, 2008)
Approve………….31%
Disapprove…….65%
Frankensteinbeck
@lamh36:
As the first on the ‘Jeb:( is too incompetent to win’ train, I will now perform the booty booty dance.
dr. bloor
@lamh36: Remarkably fast for them.
Elie
Hey, but my guess is that the Bushes aint gonna forget ol Donald anytime soon. Hope he has a reliable food taster…. He not only dissed Jeb, but Dubya and Moma Bush. Nope. They aint about to forget nothin….
NotMax
So how did dragging your odious brother in to SC help? Methinks we have our answer.
Brink’s haz a sad.
Chyron HR
@lamh36:
A thousand different feelings; a plethora of chills all over his body.
Highway Rob
Somewhere a convoy of Brinks! Trucks! drives on into the night, on a poorly lit highway, heading towards… oblivion.
Wrb
@raven: about what are you agitated?
mike in dc
Jeb says “peace out”! I guess it’s just Jeb. now(full stop). Kasich in through at least one Super Tuesday, maybe the second. Carson to continue ripping off supporters and padding the bank accounts of his “fundraisers”. Rubio and Cruz in a deathmatch for second.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@lamh36: I saw that! No more ?JEB? really?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Elizabelle: day-yum… taking Walker’s “get out for the good of the party” advice this late?
I started McKay Coppins book on the GOP primary field– and put it down an haven’t been compelled to pick it up again– but the weird thing in those first chapters is Jeb Bush being portrayed as a brass-balled heavy weight. The portrayal of Marco as an anxious, big-appetite-bad-teeth wannabe is much easier to believe.
I hope Barbara is all marble, cold and hard and unforgiving, like Vanessa Redgrave in that movie about the freaky Dupont and the wrestler
Corner Stone
Jeb’s wife looks scared to death.
Highway Rob
@NotMax: Damn. Missed it by seconds.
Corner Stone
“Working you” ??
jl
@BillinGlendaleCA:
” He had the Ted Cruz problem. ”
I am hoping the GOP gets really and truly desperate.
The idea of Romney in the wings was not a joke, though. What happened to the ‘draft Romney’ rumors? (Edit: were they rumors, or just a joke on the blogs?)
dmsilev
@lamh36:
Will we notice any difference?
Elizabelle
As a fellow human, I am glad Jeb! is dropping out. He was just in there getting beaten up. Was not (OK, that) fun to watch.
He caught a bit when he announced he was dropping the race.
As for clearing the slate for Rubio: they’re going to have to stuff weights in Marco’s pockets. He is so flyaway.
Have to laugh at “mainstream” [aka wired for Republicans] media, acting all surprised about Trump’s success and not believing it’s happening. Fox News Nation. You embraced Fox every chance you got; would not call them out; went with the “he said, she said.” Live with it, suckers.
And pretending that Trump is so out there. How ridiculous of the MSM. Trump’s merely the most entertaining of a crop of horrible people running for the GOP nomination, and in many ways, the most authentic. Aside from Kasich, not one of them is decent or even in an earth orbit. They’re shallow and mean.
dr. bloor
@Corner Stone: Well, he did say he was going to sleep with her tonight.
Corner Stone
@Highway Rob: I’ll be happy to give them my address if it helps.
Catatonia
Trump hates the Bushes and asswipe Jeb and his schavio nonsense are well and truly deep sided.. I,m going to miss Trump,s invective against this moralizing nullity.
jl
No! Jeb! No! Don;’t do it. Please! Don’t go!!
PeakVT
Jebya! would have been smashed by Clinton in November. Kinda sad I won’t actually see that happen now…
Jim, Foolish Literalist
How do you say, “The Gorgon will be hungry” in Spanish?
Frankensteinbeck
@Elie:
I don’t know about assassination, but Jeb has impressed me as a vengeful person who seethes with fury at being questioned by a commoner. I’m not sure he’s competent enough to make real trouble, but if the rest of his family is anything like him, yeah, they are already plotting punishment for Donald’s insolence.
CaseyL
This is amazing: the GOP frontrunner, second and third, all know absolutely nothing about how to govern, and care even less. Nada. Zilch.
I don’t care for Kasich, and JEB is slime, but as Governors they at least know a little bit about how things work.
Gonna be an interesting election.
Elizabelle
Watching CNN. Dana Bash slobbering over Jeb! Saying he was class personified, the whole campaign. Not just as he left the race. (Paraphrasing; not sure just what she said, but it was knob polishing.)
Trump up now. Oh boy.
Villago Delenda Est
RtR has been MIA for some time now. Just no way to spin oblivion away.
lamh36
Bye Jeb
Corner Stone
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Ask Ted Cruz.
Highway Rob
You can’t spell Triumph the Insult Comic Dog without T-r-u-m-p.
Baud
@lamh36: LOL.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Objective journalist, one time designated WaPo correspondent on ‘women’s issues’, current colleague of Ron Fournier
Anne Laurie
@jl:
“People” (professional campaign workers looking for gigs & the horse-race media that listens to them) say that if it comes to a brokered convention, Paul Ryan will step up to save the Party. It’s why he took Boehner’s job, because it would make him the Obvious Choice!!!
My personal suspicion is that this is only slightly less likely than a winning Bloomberg third-party run, but on the other hand, I’ve given up trying to predict how Repubs will react to anything. These people are nihilists, Donny!
Elizabelle
Do you think some of Trump’s appeal is how attractive his family is? Ivanka is always more prominently featured than Melania (and is heavily pregnant). They look supportive and rich and successful.
Trump joking about the baby being due any moment.
NR
@TallPete: Yep. We know Hillary’s ceiling, and it is perilously low for a presidential candidate. We don’t know her floor.
Chyron HR
Haw-haw!
Mike J
@Corner Stone:
She klnows what Babs does to losers.
Corner Stone
I’m going to vote for Trump just due to the fact of so many freakin’ hotties he has on stage with him.
Mingobat f/k/a Karen in GA
Let’s take Jeb to court to stop him pulling the plug.
Matt McIrvin
Slooowwww and steady, slooooowwwww and steady! He’s biding his time, to jump back in the race at just the right moment!
Surreal American
@lamh36:
So where’s the resident Jeb? troll to comment on this?
NotMax
Dropped the hammer has.
Dead toast walking.
Corner Stone
Melania speaking…not so much.
Elizabelle
Melania gets to speak. That’s a first, in my limited viewing. Now Ivanka. She is polished and comfortable and on message.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Remember when it looked like Santorum was gonna fatally wound Willard, and all the smart Republicans were praying for Jeb to come and save the day? Good times.
TallPete
@Steve in the ATL: maybe so, but I’m not convinced of that. There are plenty of liberal minded voters (and most independents) that do not like HRC. Most voters don’t know much about Sanders, and he doesn’t have allot of skeletons in the closet.
Corner Stone
Why does every person on the Trump stage repeat the same adjective when speaking?
dr. bloor
I look forward to a gold plated White House, along with nymphs with hooters
This isn’t a victory speech, it’s a Bar Mitzvah toast with Crazy Uncle Abe emceeing.
Ohio Mom
@Elizabelle: Please, Kasich is NOT decent, he *is* shallow and mean. He would be the third term of GW.
sharl
Ultraviolet Thunder
One factor that’s not getting much play during the primaries: the economy. A lot of work has gone into analyzing past elections and how the state (and more importantly the trend) of the economy correlates to the success of the incumbent party. Generally, if the economy is in decline in the last 6 months of the year, it’s worse for the incumbent party. People ‘s state of mind appears to be influenced more by the sign of the first derivative than the level. Rising or level is OK for incumbents. If the economy is unstable or declining, incumbents do worse.
Nobody can predict the economy with any accuracy, but the long leading signs of a decline in 2016 are for the most part absent. This is good news for HRC and bad news for insurgent candidates.
Mike J
@sharl:
Throatwarbler Mangrove.
Chyron HR
@NR:
The best shilling Tad Devine can buy, ladies and gentlemen.
msdc
This is no comment on today’s results in Nevada, but good lord, who is the idiot who designed the caucus format?
“Hey, you know how primaries give people all day to vote and then report the results in a couple hours? Let’s do the exact fucking opposite of that.”
Corner Stone
I love this fucking guy!
Renie
@sharl: I would have loved to have heard that phone call! LOL
Maybe we will now get a better troll here.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@Mingobat f/k/a Karen in GA: FTW
PeakVT
Rubotico up to 2nd! Feel the Marcomentum!
MomSense
@Surreal American:
I hope he didn’t get run over by a Brinks truck.
Elizabelle
@Ohio Mom: Totes agree with you on Kasich. Not a fan, but the others are so shallow and awful, he comes across better in comparison with the shabbiest and least qualified GOP field I have ever seen.
TaMara (BHF)
Holy crap. They really are going to nominate Trump.
Meanwhile at Balloon-Juice another Hil vs Bern thread devolves into Lord of the Flies (I’m only guessing as the comment count is at 350+ and I bailed at about 100).
I believe John could just rerun a few of his 2008 posts on keeping the eye on the prize – anyone but one of the Republican scary clowns.
catclub
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Those Obama and Kids pictures are fabulous.
Elizabelle
Trump calling Obama a “political hack.” Stay classy, Donald.
Pledging to repeal Obamacare, and do something better and cheaper. Uh huh.
TallPete
@NR: here’s the polling on Clinton approval/dis. Polls change, and voters will hold their nose if needed..
Elizabelle
@TaMara (BHF): The Lord of the Flies shit is why I pretty much lurk now.
Saw this in 2008, and it was awful then. Why can’t Democrats get along? It’s appalling.
Corner Stone
@TaMara (BHF):
Sorry but Cole was irrational for almost all of the 2007-08 D primaries. He gets no love here for his inability to separate out his programmed hatred of all things Hillary.
IOW, he was waaaaayyyy down the list of reasoned voices.
catclub
@Ultraviolet Thunder: This. The fact that the GOP candidates are not saying with any conviction that the economy is down the tubes is great news.
Hillary has already rehearsed the lines : ” the last time the GOP had the presidency they ran the economy into the shitter. Don’t give them a chance to do it again. ” (it works best if Bush is the GOP nominee, but that ain’t happening.)
Timurid
REKT.
PeakVT
By how much does Rubotico need to over-perform tonight before the press preemptively declares him President? 10%? 8%?
Corner Stone
Trump is an excellent carnival barker.
JPL
Trump sounds as though he is a crazy maniac off his meds. Even though he has always been egotistical and narcissistic, he seemed to make sense in the olden days. Maybe my memory is failing me, but the guy on stage is nuts.
dr. bloor
Mrs. Dr. Bloor checking out the real estate rental market in Toronto.
beth
So Trump’s going to put our most successful, top businessmen in charge of getting our jobs back from China. Aren’t they the greedy bastards who sent the jobs there in the first place? Trump talks like China snuck into the country, put a gun to Apple’s head and forced them to make IPhones in China.
Mai.naem.mobile
I desperately need some help here. I’m beginning to feel sorry for Jebbeh!
qwerty42
@Ohio Mom:
Yeah. He is way on the right. He still seems the most “normal” one they have.
The Sheriff Endorses Baud 2016
“Haaaaa! The elephant is dead!” Bye, iJeb! and good riddance.
JPL
@beth: Didn’t Trump have his clothing line made in China?
Baud
@Mai.naem.mobile: Try putting yourself in a vegetative state.
Corner Stone
@beth:
I thought that was hilarious. “Who am I going to put in charge of trade deals? The guys who fucked you for the last 20 years! YEAH! FUCK YEAH!”
divF
@catclub: My favorite is the one of Obama holding the newborn twins, one in each arm. His look of profound concentration is so real and human.
BillinGlendaleCA
?jeb??
Corner Stone
@dr. bloor: I hope y’all have major coin. Because both Vancouver and T-dot is smoking hot for real estate.
Heliopause
Rubio just crushing it right now. Think of it this way; if you scored 22% at the roulette wheel that’s a win, right? Rubio wins.
And don’t go to sleep on Jeb. Suspending is the right strategic move.
Frankensteinbeck
@Mai.naem.mobile:
Go find the video of him snapping at a reporter for daring to question him. That will soothe any sympathies you might ever have for the man. What an entitled, mean-spirited shit he is.
catclub
@divF: I like the one of the kid having a tantrum on the Oval Office floor.
Catatonia
@Elizabelle:
I thought the same thing. His daughter looks reAdy to step into the putative FLOTUS-in-waiting role. Trumpenfuhrer!s poor wife just looked as if she,d rather be walking the dog or taking the Bentley in for the 50k checkup.
Ultraviolet Thunder
@JPL:
One thing Trump does really sets off my alarm bells: he keeps saying ‘believe me’ and ‘take my word for it’. In my experience dealing with highly untrustworthy people, they all say that. Take it on my word and nothing more. It tells me that person is a lying fraud, and I can never trust someone who makes that appeal.
I mean, we know he’s sleazy and dishonest, but this rhetorical crutch of his is why I FEEL that way about him.
Adam L Silverman
@Joel: @Anne Laurie: Its a modified winner take all. There are 50 delegates at stake. The overall statewide winner, and plurality counts, gets 26 of those. There are 3 automatic allocations. The remaining 21 are allocated to the winner of each Congressional district. It is entirely possible/plausible that Trump will take all of them. According to the interactive map Senator Rubio is leading in two counties, that’s counties, not Congressional districts, and one county has not reported any results yet. Depending on how large the two counties that Senator Rubio is leading are in relation to the overall Congressional district he’s in, it is possible that he could be awarded 6 delegates. Minus Greenwood County, which is the one that hasn’t reported any returns yet, Donald Trump has won/is projected to win every county but Richland and Charleston Counties. There are two counties in District 1: Charleston and the one to its immediate southwest. Richland County is divided into two Congressional districts: Districts 6 and 2. Both have multiple counties within the district. Greenwood is part of District 3, which is also a large, multi-county district. Based on the Congressional district map I’d be surprised if Donald Trump doesn’t walk away with all 50 delegates.
Anoniminous
I’ve been sitting here laughing my ass off for a good 15 minutes. Trump wins SC, Cruz comes in third, the Boy DipShit comes in second and tops the Corporate/Establishment Wing poll, and JEB! is out. The GOP is imploding in a cloud of derp.
Calouste
@PeakVT: 0.1%
sharl
@Mike J: Heh. Someone replied to that Ralston tweet to ask, ‘isn’t that a correct pronunciation after all, since ‘Nevada’ is a Spanish word/term?’ Wikipedia says yes (Nevada = “snow-covered”). So Trump’s just correcting a linguistic cultural appropriation of sorts.
See?!? The Donald isn’t racist after all!!
SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel
Just watched a few minutes of Trump before *click*, but it occurred to me during that brief time that I have never seen him look happy. His facial expressions are either inchoate rage, demented off-the-wall crazy, or smirky smugness. I’m not sure I’ve ever, EVER, seen a genuine smile on his face (i.e., one that reaches the eyes as opposed to merely turning up the corners of the mouth). Ronald Reagan, give him his due, really did communicate optimism and cheerfulness. Trump communicates fear and anger and privilege. Totally apart from his appalling policy positions, is this really what the American voter wants for the next four years? Really?
Corner Stone
@Catatonia: The crowd hated his wife Melania’s accent and short speech. Hated it.
Brinks Truck Driver
@lamh36:
Where will I go? What will I do?
Anoniminous
@Adam L Silverman:
And that’s good for another peal of laughs. They rigged the game to propel JEB! to an early win and it’s Donald who is capitalizing on it.
JPL
Rubio is once again giving his I almost won speech. Congratulations will be forthcoming, I’m sure.
Corner Stone
Rubio should have just stepped in there in that awkward pause and said, “Please clap”.
Highway Rob
Listening to Rubio’s crowd shouting “Marco! Marco!,” did anyone else think “Polo!”?
Adam L Silverman
@jl: Here’s the rules:
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/10/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_14.html
lgerard
Remember when the winner of the 2012 South Carolina Republican primary said that it was obvious that he was going to be the nominee of the party?
Whatever happened to that guy?
Corner Stone
Ugh. Reagan.
The Thin Black Duke
@Frankensteinbeck: And don’t ever forget what that prick did to Terry Schiavo’s husband.
Matt McIrvin
@Ultraviolet Thunder:
Really? Lots of scary stuff going on overseas, I thought, and the latest iteration of the tech bubble is deflating. If we’re lucky the crash will wait until after the election and just hobble the administration of whoever gets elected.
Corner Stone
Rubio is just fucking awful on the stump.
Anne Laurie
Fresh new laugh-at-JEB post up top, for the
lulzrecord.Highway Rob
Marco, you already look like a kid wearing his dad’s suit. Referring to yourself as one of the “children of the Reagan revolution” isn’t helping.
dmsilev
@Brinks Truck Driver: Have you considered backing up?
Mike J
@sharl:
Had he been at a Bernie rally they would have shouted, “English only!” at him.
kc
@Ultraviolet Thunder:
It’s worrisome that the only 2 Dems in contention are … not young.
Mandalay
“Twenty first century…”
“Ronald Reagan…”
“Greatest military in the world…”
“Son of a bartender…”
Jesus Christ.
dr. bloor
@Corner Stone: Most of them hadn’t realized he married a furriner, but once they see stuff like this, they’ll be back in the fold.
dr. bloor
Poor Marco is dying for a Tic-Tac.
Mai.naem.mobile
@Baud: @Frankensteinbeck: okay I’m all over the sympathy for Boosh thing. You all may clap at Jeb! dropping out.
Corner Stone
@dr. bloor: Holy shit. I just voted.
Mandalay
Rubio is talking about himself in the third person. That’s always a cast iron guarantee that the speaker is an asshole.
Adam L Silverman
@Anoniminous: The entire SC primary system, and where it sits in the GOP primary process, was created by Lee Atwater and another SC political giant as a firewall for the establishment GOP against an insurgent. Its original beneficiary was President Bush 41. People never learn: eventually the monstrous creation always gets loose and goes on a rampage against its creator and everyone else.
Baud
@dr. bloor: She must be adopted.
Ultraviolet Thunder
Comment eated by FYWP. Test.
PaulW
Jeb? is suspending his campaign, so THAT particular nightmare scenario – another GODDAMN BUSH in the White House – is over.
However, Trump is still winning comparable to his polling numbers, which means he’s on pace to dominate most of the state primaries. And he’s this much closer to being a legitimate nominee for the Presidency in one of the scariest nightmares we could ever have in our nation’s history.
But none of that is going to compare to the utter annoyance we’re going to get now that Rubio is “winning” in Second Place. He’s “winning” without actually leading or getting the delegates needed to really really win, and the goddamn media is going to parade him around like the Second Coming of Reagan, all because he’s in SECOND PLACE. /headdesk
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@Mike J: Heh!
Adam L Silverman
@lgerard: He’s got a video about the dangers of electromagnetic pulses he’d like to sell you.
Anne Laurie
@Elizabelle:
It’s our tradition!
Don’t know if you’ve ever read any Finley Peter Dunne, but his Mr. Dooley books should be available electronically. The Democrats were just as fecklessly disorganized back in the first Gilded Age, but we still managed to break the plutocrats’ hold… temporarily. We’ll do it again, this time.
(Republicanism is like shingles — once the virus is in your system, it never completely goes away!)
Ultraviolet Thunder
@Matt McIrvin:
Unemployment, inflation, wage growth are all really solid. These are the things that affect people’s overall sense of economic well being, and inform their attitude toward incumbent parties. Yes, offshore factors could affect us eventually but these things take time to percolate through to our fundamentals. And Europe and Asia have been a drag on us to some extent all along, as their recovery from the 2008 recession has been slower than ours.
catclub
@Matt McIrvin:
Go check out the guy at Calculated Risk. He will calm your nerves. Search for “Bill McBride recession call”
Things are not great. but unemployment at 5% and holding is far better that 8% and rising.
House prices had been falling for two years from the peak in 2006. Now house prices are slowly rising.
Adam L Silverman
@kc: I wouldn’t freak to badly. As I’ve written here before I expect that one of the Castro brothers (Julian and Joaquin) will be a strong contender to join the ticket should Secretary Clinton get the nomination. I’d expect Senator Sanders to also pick someone younger. There is some good, younger elected talent out there but it doesn’t get a lot of coverage because the GOP controls both chambers of Congress and so many state executives and legislatures. You’ve got Congresswoman Duckworth, there’s several other younger, elected Democratic officials at the Congressional and state levels who are also vets of Iraq and Afghanistan. Just because they aren’t getting a lot of press doesn’t mean they’re not there.
Adam L Silverman
@dr. bloor: And that’s one of the tamer sets of pictures.
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: That’s his wife!
Ruckus
@Ohio Mom:
@qwerty42:
This. A thousand times this.
Have said it before, Kasich is a hard right republican. Very hard, very right. He talks a good, closer to center game but he is absolutely no better than any of the rest of them. Not by any measure. He somewhat reminds me of W.F. Buckley, who could talk like an intellectual about how all the things he liked on the right were just and proper. It was all bullshit, none of it was just or proper. But he spun it with big words and pomposity. Kasich is no Buckley for sure but people think he’s got some reality to him but he doesn’t, he’s all bullshit.
Baud
@Adam L Silverman:
I should have been richer.
sharl
@Mike J: I saw that. A number of Bernie folks are skeptical, and claiming it was GOP (or even pro-Hillary) ratfvckers, but they haven’t provided any evidence to support their skepticism. I replied to one guy saying I’ve seen plenty of self-described economic liberals who spew racist shit, so I’m not surprised.
Mike J
@Baud: I wish I was a little bit taller, I wish I was a baller, I wish I had a girl who looked good, I would call her, I wish I had a rabbit in a hat with a bat, And a six four Impala
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: It does show a repeated pattern that some jobs, specifically having to sleep with Donald Trump, will only be done by foreigners and immigrants.
Baud
@Adam L Silverman: I’m suddenly happy we didn’t let in more Syrian refugees. They have suffered enough.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@Ruckus: Kasich’s behavior during his interview with the editorial board with FitzGerald shows that he believes he’s entitled to be a jerk. He acted like a wannabe petty tyrant who has no respect for anyone who opposes him. He’s dangerous.
I’m sorry that Ohio has had to put up with him so long. He’s done a lot of damage and would be a disaster as President.
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: There is a possibility, I don’t know how good of one, that we will, in 2017, have the first First Lady to ever pose nude and have the pictures widely distributed on the Internet. It really is a brave new world.
Ruckus
@Ultraviolet Thunder:
It tells me that person is a lying fraud, and I can never trust someone who makes that appeal.
Sounds exactly like a used car salesman. “Trust me, this 12 yr old car only has 25 thousand on it, was owned by a little old lady who took lavish care of it. What’s that? Of course it still has a rental car sticker in the window but trust me.”
Baud
@Adam L Silverman: Scott Brown was a trailblazer.
Ruckus
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet:
By comparison to the current crop, GWB didn’t sound all that bad. We know better of course. Delivery is not that same as delivered product.
Just One More Canuck
@dr. bloor: we’d love to have you
Mandalay
@Adam L Silverman:
I thought it was an open secret that Julian Castro already has the job if he wants it.
But he’s almost too good a choice. You want your VP candidate to boost your vote, but you don’t want voters wishing that the VP candidate was running for president instead.
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: If you’re discussing Mrs. Brown in a black bikini in a very bizarre music video from the 1980s, its not even close.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLvwc3W_KwM
If you’re discussing his own pictorial history, I’m not sure it really applies as Mrs. Brown isn’t running for president.
Adam L Silverman
@Mandalay: You go into the general election with the candidate you have…
catatonia
@Corner Stone:
Melania -> close to “melanin” -> charter member of the CSA. So that all makes sense.
The Lodger
@jl: Original Conservative Republican Authoritarian Party, perhaps?
mclaren
@Adam L Silverman:
Silverman, if you start talking about known unknowns and unknown unknowns, you’re done.
mclaren
@beth:
Bingo.
This is why Trump will be toast if he gets the nomination. Hillary or Bernie will eat this stupid egomaniacal untrustworthy bastard alive.
They’ll just rattle off the long long long list of undocumented immigrants working for below minimum wage at Trump’s hotels and tell the audience, “Sure, that’s what Donald Trump plans to do about restricting immigration.” Then they’ll recite the laundry list of companies offshoring American jobs and explain “Now Donald wants to put the people running these companies in charge of getting our jobs back. That’s like a policeman putting the burglar who smashed the jewelry store window in charge of getting the loot back.”
And then all they’ll have to do is play a few clips of Trump ranting, and ask “Do you really want this guy’s finger on the nuclear button?”
Game over.
Landslide win for the Democrats.