Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Conservatism: there are some people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

Americans barely caring about Afghanistan is so last month.

A thin legal pretext to veneer over their personal religious and political desires

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

Consistently wrong since 2002

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

Nothing worth doing is easy.

And we’re all out of bubblegum.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

Everybody saw this coming.

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

Battle won, war still ongoing.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

Balloon Juice has never been a refuge for the linguistically delicate.

My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

We’ve had enough carrots to last a lifetime. break out the sticks.

Take hopelessness and turn it into resilience.

People are complicated. Love is not.

You are here: Home / Past Elections / Election 2016 / Jeb Bush Takes Ball, Goes Home

Jeb Bush Takes Ball, Goes Home

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Per NBC:

Jeb Bush Suspends 2016 Presidential Campaign
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, once considered the Republican Party’s most likely presidential nominee, is ending his campaign after a dismal showing in South Carolina’s primary.

“The people of Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina have spoken, and I really respect their decision, so tonight I am suspending my campaign,” he told backers in the Palmetto State…

His campaign had hoped that South Carolina, a state rich with veterans and traditional Republican voters, would give the former governor a much-needed boost after big losses in Iowa and New Hampshire. Both former president George W. Bush and former first lady Barbara Bush campaigned for Jeb Bush in the state.

The loss comes after an enormous investment of resources by Jeb Bush and his allies.

Together, they spent nearly $81 million in TV ads during the presidential election – with $76 million coming from the Right to Rise Super PAC – according to ad-spending data from SMG Delta…

.

Since this is Mr. Brinks Truck full of Right-to-Rise, scion of the Bush Crime Family, he’s the one candidate whose “suspension” might not actually be an ending. If it comes down to a brokered RNC convention — Reince and his guys frantically looking for a loophole that will let them declare Trump a non-person, while the Cruz and Rubio backers literally fist-fight in the hallways — I can see the Bush apparatus “graciously offering” to accept the burden of figurehead.

Of course, at the moment, the CW says that would be Paul Ryan‘s big chance, but how many College Repub ratfvcker divisions do the Ryan supporters command?

Reader Interactions

278Comments

  2. 2.

    PeakVT

    If only this was the true end of the Bush Crime Family. Sadly, another generation could still take up the banner and try to wreck the nation. We must be vigilant…

  3. 3.

    Trentrunner

    2000 Presidential race – Florida outcome

    Terri Schiavo

    So…no, I’m not sorry for this privileged twit getting his comeuppance. He got it. He got it three times, running over.

  4. 4.

    catclub

    Of course, at the moment, the CW says that would be Paul Ryan‘s big chance,

    I agree. Once three guys come into the convention with none having a majority of the delegates, all unable to close the deal, Paul Ryan saves the day. Media would be delirious with joy at the chance to fluff a brilliant policy wonk (not) and brilliant centrist politician.

    I hope Trump goes third party on em if it happens.

  7. 7.

    catclub

    Of course, at the moment, the CW says that would be Paul Ryan‘s big chance

    Would be nice if Romney contested with Ryan for it in the most messy way possible.

  9. 9.

    dmsilev

    @JPL: Apparently it’s too much to ask that Rubio actually win something before giving a victory speech.

    Again to remind people (though people here I’m sure remember), back in the halcyon days of …January, Rubio’s Cunning Plan was to finish 3rd in IA, 2nd in NH, and then win tonight. By his own campaign’s strategy, FAIL.

  13. 13.

    danielx

    @JPL:

    Methinks Rubio’s grasp on this whole victory concept is a trifle tenuous.

    Jeb? is out of it and IU is beating on Purdue like a redheaded stepchild, as an old saying has it. (No endorsement of actually beating on stepchildren, redheaded or otherwise, is intended or implied.)

    In any case, the world is looking pretty decent at the moment.

  14. 14.

    sharl

    Not surprised or particularly sad to see this, except that after Jeb’s withdrawal, I’m expecting major sectors of corporate media to double-down on their pimping of Rubio. I don’t think that will help Rubio much, but it just adds more chaff and sewage to the crap that’s already online. Save us, Zombie Jack Germond!

  15. 15.

    MomSense

    Oh man he is showing some wicked dry mouth. He just ran his tongue all along the front of his mouth in the most bizarre way. He must be using some weapons grade powder to control the shine.

  16. 16.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    Ironic, after being on life support for so long ¿Jeb? finally pulled the plug on his brain dead campaign.

  17. 17.

    Frankensteinbeck

    Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, once considered the Republican Party’s most likely presidential nominee

    Not by me. I spotted real early that the man could not walk past a banana peel without slipping on it, shitting his pants, and kicking himself in the mouth when he hit the floor. I have never seen such a bad campaigner. He made Perry and Newt look like statesmen.

  22. 22.

    Anoniminous

    @Ramalama:

    1912 when Taft got the nomination despite Teddy Roosevelt winning most of the primaries. A very different era and it doesn’t match up well with 2016.

  23. 23.

    MomSense

    In a debate I think Clinton can overwhelm him with her grasp of issues about which he only has 30 second memorized blurbs. The man has a depth of zero. I hope she demolishes him.

  26. 26.

    MomSense

    @JPL:

    It’s called flop sweat. He is unprepared and over his head and try as he might to pretend, his body knows it.

  27. 27.

    Mr Stagger Lee

    @Ramalama:I would dare say 1920 with the nomination and the presidency to Warren G. Harding, who by today’s standards make George Bush, JFK. Then there was the one in 1880 that gave the nod to James Garfield who had the bad uck of getting shot a few months after taking office.

  28. 28.

    PaulW

    The good news is, no more f-cking Bushies running to ruin the nation.

    The bad news is, another goddamn week of the media squeeing at Rubio like he’s a Fifth Beatle.

    /headdesk

  31. 31.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    Buh Bye GOP ‏@BuhByeGOP

    Ivanka is trending. Oh no, is Donald Trump talking about banging his daughter again?

  32. 32.

    Tissue Thin Pseudonym

    The Gophers beat Wisconsin 4-3 in overtime. By all sensible rules, they’d end the regular season tied as WCHA co-champions. Unfortunately, because of the stupid shootout rule and Bucky’s shootout win over North Dakota, while the Gophers lost theirs, the Badgers win the league by a point. The fun part is that, except for that difference, the two teams had exactly the same conference record. They were not only both 24-3-1, they had identical records against each team: they split with each other, went 2-1-1 against North Dakota, and 4-0 against everyone else.

    Meanwhile, Boston College played itself a creampuff schedule and will get the #1 NCAA seed, while Minnesota and Wisconsin will have to play in the semifinal for the third consecutive year. Of course, last year BC lost the semifinal against a weaker opponent, so go Quinnipiac. Or Clarkson. I wouldn’t mind a rematch of the 2014 final.

  33. 33.

    Renie

    I guess Rubio is going to be the establishment’s guy now. I’m sure Trump will aim his guns at Rubio. My concern is Bloomberg coming in to run 3rd party.

  34. 34.

    JPL

    @MomSense: Who? At this point Trump is leading. I think Trump picks up the Carson and Cruz supporters. That puts him over 50 percent. Rubio will still claim victory so not sure what happens. The convention should be lots of fun.

  35. 35.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @MomSense:
    Clinton has proven, in an eleven hour trial by fire, that she can deal with insulting fact-free assholes without losing her cool. She is immune to Trump’s major debate tactic, and all signs suggest he will be unable to deal with the counterattacks. If Trump is operating on the bitch slap theory of politics, he is in for a bad time.

  36. 36.

    Chyron HR

    “America”
    Let us be losers
    We’ll back up our Brinks trucks together
    I’ve got some unlimited corporate cash here in my bag

  38. 38.

    Cacti

    @Frankensteinbeck:

    Clinton has proven, in an eleven hour trial by fire, that she can deal with insulting fact-free assholes without losing her cool. She is immune to Trump’s major debate tactic, and all signs suggest he will be unable to deal with the counterattacks. If Trump is operating on the bitch slap theory of politics, he is in for a bad time.

    In contrast, I think she’d have a very easy time getting under Trump’s skin just with sticking to the facts.

  39. 39.

    PaulW

    With South Carolina a “Winner-Take-All” state (mostly, there is something about certain delegates going by district), will Rubio even get ANY delegates worth talking about to equal the number Trump is leading with?

  41. 41.

    BR

    I would be ecstatic but for the fact that this country was dumb enough to elect Ronald Reagan. I don’t think President Trump is possible. At least I really really hope not

  42. 42.

    Ramalama

    @Mr Stagger Lee: You know, talking about the history of Republican brokered conventions would be so much more interesting and (cough) newsworthy by tv heads covering the primaries. How many bloody comments tonight on tv wanked on about how much they underestimated Trump? Answer: too manyzzZZZZ.

  44. 44.

    MomSense

    @JPL:

    Sorry, I was referring to Rubio. He will look ridiculous next to Clinton. I think Trump will try to bully her and when she keeps her cool (I suspect she is quite the alpha tamer) he will get nasty and it will backfire big time.

  48. 48.

    Wumpus

    1912? No, 1920. Warren G. Harding nominated on the 10th convention ballot, the deal reached in the legendary “smoked-filled room.”

  51. 51.

    Adam L Silverman

    @catclub: It won’t happen. All the real members of the base, as in not the establishment, think Speaker Ryan is a socialist plant because he went along with the budget agreement and spending outline that Speaker Boehner negotiated with President Obama. As strange as that seems to you and I, and perhaps many others reading here, should Speaker Ryan be brought in as the man to save the party from its self created primary outcome mess, there will be a tremendous revolt of the base.

  52. 52.

    MomSense

    @Frankensteinbeck:

    I agree. She does not get flustered and I’ve actually been impressed by her ability to not go for the cheap points but wait to have maximum impact. Her closing statement in the last debate was as strong a statement on progressivism as I’ve heard while also juxtaposing Sanders’ limitations.

  53. 53.

    Cheryl Rofer

    @Ramalama: Whatever strange result of the primaries may go into the Republican convention this summer, the convention won’t be brokered. That term refers to a time before the primaries. There have always been power brokers in the parties, and the Democrats have their superdelegates to fight over. But the primaries have taken away a lot of power from the brokers.

    I haven’t seen a good analysis of what happens at the Republican convention this summer. If Trump collects enough delegates in the primaries, I guess that makes him the nominee, but I am not versed in the procedural details. I keep wondering, though, who those power brokers actually are and why they’re not doing something now. I have not seen an explanation of that either, and I have asked a few people who might know about it on Twitter. No answers.

    My tentative conclusion is that nobody is in charge of the Republican Party.

  55. 55.

    hellslittlestangel

    @MomSense: He must be using some weapons grade powder to control the shine.

    Not to mention the weapons grade powder his brother-in-law is supplying that’s causing the drymouth in the first place.

  58. 58.

    lamh36

    Isn’t Nicole Wallace of the architects of the McCain campaign that infected us with that Grifter Palin? Why would any listen to her?

  59. 59.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    Biggest shock still is Sanders’s loss – considering he had the full backing of Susan Sarandon and Michael Moore.

  60. 60.

    lamh36

    this habit Rubio has of giving victory speeches when he did not in fact win…is funny as hell. I mean get strategy still funny

  61. 61.

    Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class

    Or will the unlimited corporate cash now wend its way to the candidate that hasn’t been shrieking about evil bankers?

    Could this be the signal of the potential closing of the corporate money spigot to rancid orgs like ALEC and the NRA? If the GOP and those orgs had to rely on goofy billionaires for support, things could change markedly.

    Maybe Obama is more transformative than progressives ever gave him credit for. Maybe the stage is set for major changes over the next decade.

  62. 62.

    amk

    a ‘brokered convention’? really?

    A couple inconvenient facts for anti-Trump Republicans: 1. Trump won moderate voters in NH 2. Trump is winning evangelical voters in SC.

  70. 70.

    JPL

    Cruz is giving his victory speech now. My gosh they sure do give trophies for the also-rans in this state and they continue to dis children’s participation trophies.

  71. 71.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    Hard to believe Cornell West didn’t tip the balance of power in Nevada.

  73. 73.

    Soylent Green

    Poor Jeb is dead
    Poor Jeb Bush is dead
    All gather round his coffin now and cry
    He had a heart of gold
    And he wasn’t very old
    Oh why did such a feller have to die?

    Poor Jeb is dead
    Poor Jeb Bush is dead
    He’s lookin’ oh so peaceful and serene (and serene)
    He’s all laid out to rest
    With his hands acrost his chest
    His fingernails have never been so clean

    [spoken]
    Then the preacher’d get up and he’d say
    “Folks, we are gathered here to mourn and groan over our brother Jeb Bush
    Who hung hisself up by a rope in the smokehouse”
    And then there’d be weepin’ an’ wailin’ — from some of those women —
    Then he’d say, “Jeb was the most misunderstood man in this territory
    People used to think he was a mean ugly fella and called him a dirty skunk
    and an ornery pig stealer

    [spoken]
    He loved the birds of the forest
    And the beasts of the fields
    He loved the mice and the vermin in the barn
    And he treated the rats like equals (which was right)
    He loved all the little children
    He loved everything and everybody in the world
    Only . . . only he never let on
    And nobody ever knowed it…

    Poor Jeb is dead
    A candle lights his head
    He’s lookin’ oh so purty and so nice
    He looks like he’s asleep
    It’s a shame that he won’t keep
    But it’s summer and we’re runnin’ out a’ ice

  75. 75.

    lamh36

    @BooMan23
    Unmentioned so far…Kasich had one stated objective in SC…knock Jeb out. Mission accomplished.

  76. 76.

    Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class

    @Frankensteinbeck:

    Consolidation of social gains, for starters. Perhaps a renewed commitment for expansion of voting rights and economic opportunity for people of color.

  80. 80.

    PaulW

    @BR:

    To be fair to Reagan, he did serve years as Governor of a state, so he had elected experience. He also had a congenial style and a positive mindset despite the conservative (and sometimes horrifying) world-view. Reagan’s tenure had its downsides – the beginning stages of shredding unions, codifying the modern Republican obsession with tax cuts and deregulation, the criminal shenanigans like Iran-Contra, etc. – but he also worked within government and actually presided over a period of genuine bipartisan activity. Reagan was able to shake his Cold War hard-line stance and started a series of weapons-reduction pacts with the Soviets and Gorbachev (something the modern neocons of today view with horror).

    Trump is a disaster. Rather than congeniality, he’s a bully with bluster and arrogance as his public style. Whatever ignorance Reagan had, Trump’s ignorance delves into a vicious and violent world-view. He is going to be partisan on all fronts, even to a Republican-led Congress if he gets one, and will likely alienate a majority of our own allies to where our foreign policy and foreign trade/finances will be curtailed to devastating effect against us.

  81. 81.

    BruceFromOhio

    @Adam L Silverman:

    As strange as that seems to you and I, and perhaps many others reading here, should Speaker Ryan be brought in as the man to save the party from its self created primary outcome mess, there will be a tremendous revolt of the base.

    Now this is interesting. ‘Tremendous revolt’ can have many facets. Perhaps you mean political, but when I read this I think ‘armed.’ How many fucking bird sanctuary stand-offs lie in our future?

  84. 84.

    catclub

    @BR: The economy contracted by 5% in GDP in 1980. Carter had no chance. That is not happening this year.

    Also, the Iranians ratted out the GOP for trying to stall the prisoner exchange until after the election.
    The prisoner exchange has taken place already. Obama ain’t Carter.

  90. 90.

    Adam L Silverman

    @PaulW: The most he can come away with is 3 if Charleston County dominates SC Congressional District 1. SC has 50 delegates. 26 go to the statewide winner (includes plurality). 3 are at large and go along with the 27 statewide ones (no, I don’t understand why they are separated out). 21 are tied to each Congressional district: 3 delegates for each of the 7 districts. Senator Rubio only had a plurality win in two counties. One of those, Richland, is divided between two different Congressional districts. The other, Charleston County, is part of District 1, which also includes the county to its immediate southwest. Because Richland is split between two different districts, and every other county in those districts went for Trump, Trump will get the Congressional district tethered delegates. I haven’t seen anyone explain it yet, but I don’t think Senator Rubio did well enough in Charleston County to carry District 1, as the other county in the district went for Trump.

  92. 92.

    BillinGlendaleCA

    @PaulW: The unions had begun shredding themselves in the 70’s, partly by forgetting who their friends were. IIRC the Teamsters endorsed Nixon in 72.

  93. 93.

    pseudonymous in nc

    UNLIMITED something something.

    Cruz sounds like a cross between Porky Pig and Elmer Fudd. He’s the butt of Bugs Bunny in a 1940s Warner Bros cartoon.

    And damn, the media are in the tank for manchild drythroat Rubio.

  96. 96.

    Anne Laurie

    @Anoniminous: And boy, did the 1912 division (not) go well for the Repubs!

    Who gets title to the ‘Bull Moose’ logo? Or, in these franker days, will they actually use “BS”?

    Suspect it will be more like the 1968 GOP convention, though — three warring campaigns, each claiming the “right” to refudiate a shellacking four years earlier.

    Of course, in that comparison, Ted Cruz probably plays the Nixon role. On the other hand, the chances of President Obama having to pull an LBJ are so small as to be difficult to estimate even using quantum math.

  99. 99.

    Cheryl Rofer

    @Adam L Silverman: Thanks!

    I’m not good at making sense of stuff like that at this time of night, so I’ll save it until tomorrow morning.

    Whatever the details of how many of which kind of delegates, I still don’t see the power brokers of yesteryear. You mentioned Paul Ryan, who should have some leverage as Speaker of the House. But there need to be others from the various regions to trade off votes, and that process is more limited than it once was. (Again, to be checked tomorrow morning.)

    You do make a good point, though. Any sort of negotiations would tend to lead to a more moderate/electable candidate, and the base hates anyone like that.

    @BruceFromOhio: How about a shootout on the convention floor?

  104. 104.

    Adam L Silverman

    @BruceFromOhio: In this I’m referring to political/electoral. As in everything I read or hear, including from people I actually know, seems to indicate that the base will not fall in line this time. Of course the plural of anecdote is not data, so…

  111. 111.

    catclub

    @BillinGlendaleCA: The Democratic party is highly united this year.
    Someone else posted polls showing both Clinton and Sanders are popular with the rest of the party.
    The unions (that are left) know who their enemies are – it ain’t George McGovern any more.

  113. 113.

    BBA

    @Adam L Silverman: Like the “superdelegates” in the Democratic party, the Republicans make members of the RNC automatic delegates to the convention. The RNC has 3 members per state, so that probably explains the 3 “at-large” delegates. I don’t know whether they’re pledged to the primary winner though.

    (There are many more Democratic superdelegates because the DNC has more members than the RNC, plus the Democrats make sitting governors and members of Congress automatic delegates while the Republicans don’t.)

  114. 114.

    Adam L Silverman

    @catclub: The Iranian leadership is not stupid and its not the same leadership as in 1979 nor 2003. The Iranians have their own interests and will, when its in their interests, cause no end of what we would think of as trouble in the pursuit of their objectives. But they also know, because they watch our tv broadcasts and read transcripts and other reporting, that the only chance they have to normalize relations with the west is if a Democrat is elected. For two presidential elections in a row every GOP candidate has fallen all over themselves to tell potential voters that if elected they will reduce Iran, one way or another. Even Secretary Clinton’s approach, which isn’t all hugs and kisses, is still open to diplomacy.

  115. 115.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    Fool me once, shame on … shame on you. Fool me… You can’t get fooled again!'”

  116. 116.

    Ultraviolet Thunder

    My hope for the GOP nominating process was that Cruz would decimate the opposition and be unassailable at the convention. Then he would be ruled ineligible to serve as President due to the circumstances of his birth, throwing the GOP into a complete panic.
    Not gonna happen but it was my private fantasy.

  117. 117.

    catclub

    @raven: How much money did they appropriate for the inevitable losing lawsuits? Is there a list of companies saying they will have to leave Georgia? Cancelled conventions?

  118. 118.

    JGabriel

    Anne [email protected] Top:

    Of course, at the moment, the CW says that would be Paul Ryan‘s big chance, but how many College Repub ratfvcker divisions do the Ryan supporters command?

    Probably not many. Ryan strikes me as less the Vengeful Ratfucker type and more the Entitled Whiner.

  122. 122.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    @MomSense: The only downside is Lynch may have to recuse herself from the immigration law suit because her DOJ is currently defending them. If she does, the case may come out 4 to 4 in the Supreme Court, leaving in place the lower court ruling banning the stop deportation order.

    I’ll leave it to the big guy – he’s busy weighing all the angles. (Photo)

  123. 123.

    BillinGlendaleCA

    @catclub: My point was that the unions did much of the shredding on their own; sure St. Ronnie put a few nails in the coffin, but the body was already in the coffin.

  126. 126.

    Mandalay

    @Adam L Silverman:

    the only chance they have to normalize relations with the west is if a Democrat is elected.

    I disagree with that. The only chance they have to normalize relations with the United States is probably with a Democrat, but a lot of the rest of the west has already embraced Iran, especially since a lot of ka-ching is involved.

    The promises of Republican candidates to “rip up the agreement with Iran on day one in the Oval Office” is meaningless bluster. European corporations would love for that to happen.

  128. 128.

    JPL

    @raven: I mentioned that earlier. The bill will allow anyone to discriminate and hopefully the house will kill it. Deal might kill it because he seems to understand the damage it could do to the state.

  130. 130.

    BR

    I think we are looking at something similar to the 1952 Republican Convention. Rubio is Eisenhower(God forgive me for writing this), and Trump is Taft. Except this time Taft-Trump wins

  132. 132.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    @Soylent Green:

    Reposted from October 27, 2015 (hence a few out-of-date references):

    Pore Jeb is dead,
    Pore Jeb Bush is dead,
    He’s lookin’ oh so peaceful and serene.
    He’s such a loser chump,
    Trailing Rubio and Trump,
    Kasich, Carson, Cruz, and Carly Fiorine.

    Pore Jeb is done.
    He said he would run
    Because he bears his family’s famous name.
    It turns out he is toast,
    ‘Cause he thought that he could coast
    And win the nomination by acclaim.

    (Then they’ll get up, all them Foxy Foxes and CNN types, to pay tribute to Jeb. And all them Villagers will be moanin’ and weepin’ because they thought Jeb was the Promised One. Only it turned out he ain’t, and he jes’ cain’t get the poll nummers he needs, not the money he craves, even though everyone in his fam’ly tried their durndest to turn things around fer ‘im.)

    This is the end.
    Jeb had to attend
    A conference with Poppy, Bar and bro.
    He looks like he’s asleep,
    It’s a shame that he won’t keep,
    But it’s autumn and we’re runnin’ out of dough.

    Pore Jeb is dead,
    Quinnipiac said
    (And every other poll that you can cite).
    If he’d give a few more fucks
    He would see those big BRINKS. TRUCKS.
    Dumpin’ money on his doorstep overnight.

    Pore ¡Jeb!
    Pore ¿Jeb?

  133. 133.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Mandalay: I think you’re mostly correct that I overwrote (overwrought?) my reply. I’m thinking in the NATO sense. Part of normalization will require a huge adjustment in NATO posture, and we dominate NATO, which will in turn influence the EU.

  135. 135.

    Chris

    God. I am really going to miss Jeb Bush. Watching Donald Trump take his lunch money again and again has been the highlight of the campaign.

  137. 137.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    Last Sunday, Bill Kristol predicted Trump would lose SC because of his 9/11-WMD attacks on Dubya.

    Which means Kristol’s wrong-way barometer is still perfect.

  138. 138.

    Mandalay

    @pseudonymous in nc:

    the media are in the tank for manchild drythroat Rubio

    When he was giving his speech he kept running his tongue under his upper front teeth, presumably because his mouth was really dry but he was terrified of being caught swigging a bottle of water on camera.

    I still can’t shake the impression that he’s close to shitting his pants from fear every time he speaks in public.

  139. 139.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Pretty sure she is, at least the last I heard, which was less than a week ago (I think her Playboy interview). Anyhow, wasn’t it Joe ‘n’ Mika who really drew Nicole Wallace into the MSNBC fold? I feel as though Raven has been mentioning her as a guest on MJ forever.

  140. 140.

    mclaren

    @Ramalama:

    When was the last brokered Republican convention, if there ever was one? Anyone know?

    1948. Thomas E. Dewey was the last Republican nominee to emerge from a brokered convention. Adlai Stevenson in 1952 was the last Democratic nominee from a brokered convention.

    As I’ve pointed out several times, brokered conventions stopped after the 1950s. The most recent convention of any kind where a nominee did not emerge immediately on the first ballot was the 1976 Republican convention, but Gerald Ford was able to fend off Ronald Reagan’s internal challenge. Basically, both parties have changed their rules (including provisions like superdelegates) so as to eliminate the possibility of a brokered convention even if a candidate arrives at the nominating convention without a clear majority of delegates.

  141. 141.

    BruceFromOhio

    @Adam L Silverman: Fall in line to or with … what? The Repub candidate that takes the flag at the end of the klown kar kavalcade parade of fail? Sorry to seem bristly, seeking to be clear.

    I’m very concerned at the number of citizens who follow misguided sources of information and bear arms, and insist on bearing arms, emboldened by rantings of idiots (Ted Nugent, anyone) and experiencing the end of a lifestyle.

    Many are obviously trained and educated and pose no threat to anyone: my concern is not with them. But golly there are some unhappy people in this country, and it’s eerie to think how easy it would be for things to be worse than they already are with respect to idiots with guns having another axe to grind. Doesn’t take much for the armed few to destabilize the peace for many.

  142. 142.

    I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet

    @BBA: Maybe, but the push for him won’t be as strong as the push for JEB was this time. The GOP knows they can’t win without Florida. They still seem to be thinking that their best chance for taking Florida is having JEB or Marco on the ticket. That’s why JEB was pushed so long after it was clear that he was hopeless (he was hopeless on his book tour for crying out loud – he never should have declared for President). Rubio is a lightweight and has positions as reactionary as any of the other eleventy seven Teabaggers running, so he has no compelling advantage except that he’s from Florida.

    Rubio also apparently has lots and lots of things in his background and history that will raise eyebrows nationally. He’s an exceptionally weak candidate who is good at memorizing 15 second sound bites.

    It’ll be interesting to see if The Establishment™ eventually decides that Rubio is too damaged, Cruz is hated by far too many people, and decides to go with Donald in a Hail-Mary – “Hey, it won’t be that bad. Maybe he can beat Hillary after all! We better get on the bandwagon before we get left behind!” Or maybe they’ll just decide that the Presidency is hopeless and decides to save their money for down-ballot races (to continue the All Obstruction All The Time policy).

    We’ll see.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  144. 144.

    Princess

    The GOP convention will not be contested. If (when) Trump is leading, he will be the nominee. Because if they don’t make him the nominee, he’ll run third party. This is a done deal.

  146. 146.

    lamh36

    Now that Jeb is out, watch Trump set his sites on Rubio. Trump is gonna have Rubio crying like a baby. Marco ain’t ready for Trump.

    Out of the 2 Dem candidates, I honestly think HRC would beat any of the GOP candidates. She’d absolutely eat Rubio for lunch.

  153. 153.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    I love this guy

    Richard M. Nixon ‏@ dick_nixon 1h1 hour ago
    Hate Mrs. Clinton all you like, but do you remember what she did to Gowdy? Well, do you think Rubio is smarter than Gowdy?

    @I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet: Rubio is a lightweight and has positions as reactionary as any of the other eleventy seven Teabaggers running, so he has no compelling advantage except that he’s from Florida.

    A handful of people have been trying to get the VSPs to pay attention to the fact that Rubio is calling for the elimination of taxes on dividends and capital gains as part of his $11 trillion dollar debt plan. I think “tax-free unearned income” might resonate

  154. 154.

    Adam L Silverman

    @BruceFromOhio: I have no idea. Usually the expression is that Republicans, specifically the base, ultimately fall in line with whoever the nominee is. My impressions are that there is a good possibility that won’t happen this time. Donald Trump has already announced he’ll run third party if he doesn’t feel he’s treated properly. So I would think that his supporters would follow him out the door so to speak.

    As for violence, I have no idea. There is a lot of talk of another Great Rebellion, now d/b/a as the Civil War, eventually coming. I don’t really see that likely. We saw how little actual, practical support turned out in Oregon in JAN and FEB. While the folks in the so called patriot movement, as well as the overlapping other subcultures on the extreme right, are angry and well armed, they all seem to be bullies and cowards. They’re happy to establish ambush positions or act out as lone wolf terrorists or in the occasional small group, but organizing and fighting an actual continent wide rebellion for control of the country or to divide it? I don’t think they have it in them. Even the military veterans and retirees in these movements can afford to play tough because they have retirements and/or other veteran’s benefits. If those go away they’re in trouble. A lot of these guys have serious health issues related to/left over from their service. A breakdown in American society that they’ve fomented for the purposes of rebellion isn’t going to go into pause every time they need to go get a scrip filled at the VA.

  155. 155.

    BBA

    @amk:

    After fighting with the Pope.

    Ya know, it’s high time the evangelicals got back to their anti-Catholic roots. Except they’ll still hate on abortion and contraception, because suck it libtards.

  156. 156.

    Mike J

    Alison-der Hamilton ‏@VaGentlenerd 1h1 hour ago
    I wonder what my old political science professors even teach now. Do they just walk in and show Beyond Thunderdome, “end of lesson”?

  157. 157.

    mclaren

    @BR:

    I think we are looking at something similar to the 1952 Republican Convention. Rubio is Eisenhower(God forgive me for writing this), and Trump is Taft. Except this time Taft-Trump wins.

    This is utterly preposterous.

    Consider the differences: Dwight Eisenhower was a major war hero, of the stature of George Washington in popularity. Marco Rubio? Don’t make me laugh.

    Taft was an expert long-time pol with an immense career behind him. Donald Trump? A complete outsider with no real ties to the Republican party at all.

    In 1952, the Cold War raged and America found itself embroiled in a major land war against Communist North Korea. In 2016, there is no cold war, America is not in danger from anyone or anything, and our overseas bombing campaigns (such as they are) barely rise to the levels of occuptions — they’re certainly not major land wars, or anything remotely similar.

    In 1952, TV was in its infancy and not a major factor in the political race. Radio and print dominated. In 2016, social media like Facebook and YouTube dominate, with TV and print and radio falling far behind in importance. (As proof, just consider the 100 million dollars Jeb Bush pissed away on TV and radio and print advertising without moving his popularity by so much as a percentage point in the pools.)

    The world of 1952 was bipolar, split between a USSR that posed an existential threat to America with its nuclear weapons and bombers and ICBMs, and the U.S., which at that time still occupied much of Western Europe as well as Japan with military troops. In 1952 America enjoyed the zenith of its economic prosperity, and the U.S. economy accounted for 50% of the GDP of the entire planet.

    By contrast, the world of 2016 is multipolar, with no significant threat to America from any other country — and certainly no existential threat to us from anyone, anywhere. In 2016 the American economic is in severe decline, with our GDP accounting for no more than 16.14% of the world economy. Note that in 2016, China now accounts for a slightly bigger share of the world economy, at 16.32%.

    Sorry, your analogy is simply daft.

    There is absolutely no similarity between the politics of 1952 or the world of 1952, and the politics and the world situation in 2016. It’s like comparing a cyclotron with a pudding.

  158. 158.

    ThresherK

    Jeb is the one candidate whose “suspension” might not actually be an ending.

    Just a reminder in the “to the manner born” sweepstakes: Charles I, the last Emperor of Austria, and the guy holding the bag at the end of WWI, “renounced participation” in state affairs, but did not actually abdicate his throne.

  160. 160.

    Mandalay

    @BruceFromOhio: Did you see Marshall’s important follow up to that article? TLDR version => It is only the mortality rate for middle aged white women that is rising, and it’s falling for men.

    I don’t mean to dump on Marshall since both of his articles are really worth reading, but I am wary of journalists drawing conclusions from social data when they freely admit that they do not understand the methodologies used to generate the graphs.

  165. 165.

    mclaren

    @BruceFromOhio:

    I’m very concerned at the number of citizens who follow misguided sources of information and bear arms, and insist on bearing arms, emboldened by rantings of idiots (Ted Nugent, anyone) and experiencing the end of a lifestyle.

    Don’t be.

    America, for all its fractious rumblings, remains far more united that, say, a country like Turkey or Russia, or the European Union.

    The United States derives tremendous advantages from its unified culture — and here’s where the real differences show up. We all speak the same language. Not so with other countries where separatist regions (like the Basque portion of Spain, or Quebec in Canada) have an entirely separate culture and language. For all the talk about Southern culture, the differences with the rest of America are so minor that only an Americano would really notice them. Southerners speak the same language, have the same kinds of jobs, view the same TV shows and movies, drive the same cars, eat at the same fast food chain restaurants, to to the same kinds of K-12 schools and shop at the same big box stores as the rest of America.

    The deep red states get enormous amounts of money out of belonging to the U.S. They get large net cash inflows from the federal government as a perk of belonging to our federal union. All the deep southern states would find themselves awash in red ink if they were to secede from the United States, and they know it. This is why, despite all the bluster, even the most fanatical deep southern states are winding up accepting the ACA and extending medicare one by one. It just costs them too much money if they don’t.

    There’s also the incredible advantage of having no cross-border tariffs from one state to another, and enjoying the fabulous perk of being able to use the world’s reserve currency, American dollars, in trading with other states internally within the U.S. The EU has some of this — no cross-border tariffs — but they don’t have the other part of it, the big benefit of a reserve currency. Also, the U.S. has an excellent central banking system that cushions money flows and deficits between our individual states. This makes the United States the envy of the world economically, because we get much of the advantage of having wildly disparate economic regions (Montana with mining, Texas with oil, California with hi-tech industries, the Pacific Northwest with lumber, the East Coast with education and banking) without the disadvantages of separate currencies and separate internal borders with high tariffs and customs problems.

    Despite their whining, southern states enjoy some big perks as part of the federal union. Most of America’s top soldiers come from the deep south. Many of our best writers emerge from the south. There are enough advantages to being part of the south and part of a united federal union that we’re nowhere near another civil war. There simply isn’t anything in it for the red states — as opposed to the situation in 1860, where a very real and valuable economic resource, slavery, was under threat, and the southern states had a great deal to lose if they stayed in the union.

    All the loose talk from fat-ass militia clowns waddling around in the boonies with their AR-15s is just that — talk. These people represent no threat to the political union of the unites states at all.

  166. 166.

    JPL

    @lamh36: Well they both gave victory speeches, so it probably doesn’t matter. They are champions of the world, or at least the world as they see it.

  170. 170.

    James E Powell

    So it’s looking like Rubio in 2nd – A stunning comeback victory according to Chris Matthews.

    Do we expect Trump to go all Chris Christie on Rubio?

  172. 172.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    John Cole @ Johngcole
    Wait- Carson dropped out, too? Even him failing is boring.

    E vero?

    ETA: flipped over to MSNBC to see if Carson was indeed out in time to hear Brian Willaims tell me I shouldn’t make the great error of dismissing Jeb Bush as a “lesser candidate”. His chief qualifications being Terri Schiavo and the sad but understandable delusion that his father is a great man, and the unforgivable nonsense that his brother was a great president.

  176. 176.

    Cheryl Rofer

    @Adam L Silverman: I would add that the Bundys seem to have been central in such organization as there was of the militias. That seems to be the view of the feds, with the two indictments. One of the things I figured they were doing during the time everyone was being impatient about action was tracing connections and developing the basis for indictments to take the whole network down.

    As you noted, even they had a hard time getting those brave patriots to muster, although there were reports of far more strange armed people in Burns than the citizens of Burns were comfortable with.

    Today the feds indicated that there will be more indictments of more people. It will be interesting to see who they are.

    I don’t expect more wildlife refuge takeovers or anything related any time soon, although Ted Cruz has an ad out telling the good people of Nevada that he will make sure they get their land back from the evil federal government.

  177. 177.

    mclaren

    @lamh36:

    Now that Jeb is out…

    But is Jeb out?

    Or is he merely offscreen, like Darth Vader in that tie fighter flying off into space at the end of the first Star Wars movie?

    Jeb has suspended his campaign, but hasn’t officially ended it.

    If Donald Trump doesn’t win enough delegates to get the nomination on the first ballot, could Jeb reach out with his black-gloved hand and force-choke the other nominees, intoning, “I find your lack of faith disturbing”…?

  179. 179.

    PsiFighter37

    Jeb! dropping out is an unmitigated win for the robotic Cuban. I still think the fake hairpiece will win the nomination.

  180. 180.

    Mary G

    So happy to see Jeb’s humiliation , especially after Trump’s denunciation of GWB in the last debate.

  181. 181.

    mclaren

    @James E Powell:

    Do we expect Trump to go all Chris Christie on Rubio?

    If Trump is smart, he does a deal and offers Rubio the vice presidency, then cruises all the way to landslide defeat in November.

    Rubio…the candidate whose family buddy was Miami’s biggest cocaine dealer, and who might or might not have financed Rubio’s early political campaigns… Trump, a thuggish billionaire who made his money by bulldozing working people out of their homes to erect monuments to conspicuous consumption occupied by effete rich people.

    Boy, that’s a dream ticket for Hillary or Bernie to run against.

  182. 182.

    PeakVT

    @mclaren: The usual purpose of “suspending” a campaign is to keep it alive in a legal/regulatory sense so it can continue to collect donations and pay off any outstanding bills and debts, which most failed campaigns have in abundance.

    Also, too, the “please clap” line showed that the force is very, very weak with Jebya.

  184. 184.

    sigaba

    @mclaren:

    This is why, despite all the bluster, even the most fanatical deep southern states are winding up accepting the ACA and extending medicare one by one. It just costs them too much money if they don’t.

    There’s this story from Guns of August where a British infantry lieutenant is taking the train to Dover, and a pinstriped banker sitting next to him assures him there won’t be a war, and if there is it can’t last a few weeks. The European countries were all too economically connected, you see.

    There’s nothing people seem to hate more than the idea that they need their enemy for his money. In Germany by 1918 they were eating their own shoes just to spite the people who told them Germany needed international trade in order to survive. Economics never trumps nationalism (if you’ll forgive the homonym).

    See also: Rhett Butler and his knowledge of cannon factories. Cannon are of no interest to a gentleman.

  185. 185.

    sharl

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Less than three hours ago, McKay Coppins tweeted that Carson was telling his supporters he is still in.

    Others are saying that he is running out of money – surprised that didn’t happen earlier, given the grifters he brought on as advisers – but if Carson is actually pissed at Cruz for the sleazy stunts pulled in Iowa, Carson may be extra determined to stick it out a bit longer. If so…yaaaaaaay!

  186. 186.

    lamh36

    So 2nd or 3rd don’t matter…looks like Trumps wins all delegates, so net negative for the rest

    @LACaldwellDC 42s43 seconds ago
    Wow. NBC News allocates all 50 South Carolina delegates to Donald Trump.

  187. 187.

    Mandalay

    @mclaren:

    In 2016 the American economic is in severe decline, with our GDP accounting for no more than 16.14% of the world economy. Note that in 2016, China now accounts for a slightly bigger share of the world economy, at 16.32%.

    There are plenty of ways to make the case that the American economy is or is not in decline. But the data you cited is irrelevant and meaningless for such an argument.

  192. 192.

    cmorenc

    @Renie:

    I guess Rubio is going to be the establishment’s guy now. I’m sure Trump will aim his guns at Rubio. My concern is Bloomberg coming in to run 3rd party.

    The other necessary condition Bloomberg cited to his potential candidacy, other than Trump winning the GOP nomination, was if Sanders was the Dem nominee instead of Clinton. While the possibility of Sanders winning the dem nomination is still viable, the probabilities that Clinton will ultimately prevail went up today with her 5-point victory in the Nevada caucuses coupled with her near-certain comfortable win in South Carolina next week. Bernie’s hardly out of it after today, but his prospects were taken down a clear notch today.

    Even if Clinton does appear the strong favorite after super-Tuesday, there’s always the contingency of Bloomberg’s immense ego goading him to save the country for moderate centrism as its business-oriented messiah, and running 3p anyway. But that’s less likely the stronger Clinton emerges from super-Tuesday.

  193. 193.

    BillinGlendaleCA

    @mclaren: Ford was nominated on the first ballot, though it wasn’t clear who the nominee was going to be until the convention started in KC. There was a bit of delegate horse trading in the first few days of the convention. St. Ronnie choosing a VP ahead of time was really the clincher.

  194. 194.

    Jeffro

    @sharl: I can see Carson limping along a la Gilmore until Super Tuesday, no matter what the cash situation is…but beyond that, he’ll have to face up to reality and recognize that the bills are mounting up and the voters haven’t responded.

    So let’s have it, GOP! Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Kaisch (also likely to drop out post-Super Tuesday) A nice, fratricidal three-way race from March through the convention. Couldn’t have asked for more.

    (Well ok, there’s one more thing to ask for: DON’T put Cruz on the ticket, no matter the political expediency…the man is dangerous to the Republic)

  197. 197.

    amk

    Funny to see how people are using the past to predict the future while the future is happening right in front of their disbelieving eyes.

  198. 198.

    PaulW

    Lacking Jeb to struggle all the way to Cleveland, the likelihood of a straight-up brokered convention just isn’t there. If the RNC is thinking of stopping Trump, it’s going to involve some insane shenanigans with the delegates at the GOP convention.

    Are they honestly going to be content with a Trump candidacy come June 2016?

  199. 199.

    Zinsky

    My wife said she felt sorry for Jeb! I said it was karma for helping his imbecile brother steal the election from President Gore. Fuck the whole Bush clan! Can you imagine how much better this world would be, if this fucked up bunch had never existed?

  200. 200.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Cheryl Rofer: Eric Parker, the sniper from the bridge and Jerry Delemus. Parker’s brother has been on FB and twitter making preemptive threats and it appears they’re Christian Identity. Delemus was on twitter talking about the FBI conspiracy behind them asking for a meeting with him. So that’s two. Delemus’s brother is also likely, and, perhaps, his wife. Though I think she’ll be a bit of a reach.

    And one of the keys to trying to map a network is to keep the pieces in place until you can identify the nodes, the connections, directionality, levels of influence, etc. The problem is always the temptation to take out key pieces of the network too soon.

  201. 201.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    @Baud:

    Just listened to Rubio’s speech. I liked when he said that Nikki Haley’s immigrant family had felt “the string of prejudice.” LOL. Drymouth’s a bitch.

  203. 203.

    Adam L Silverman

    @PaulW: Rubio won two counties, not two or even three Districts. Of those counties one is divided into two large districts. Trump won every other county in those two districts. So no votes there for Senator Rubio. In the other county he won, Charleston, it is part of a two party district: District 1. Trump won the other county. I’ve not seen it reported who won the district, but if Senator Rubio did, the most he can come away with is 3 delegates.

  206. 206.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    What if Hillary is the Devil??

    There was a tie in one Nevada precinct. To break the tie, instead of flipping a coin, they drew cards from a p0ker deck. The high card wins. Sanders drew a 6 card. Hillary drew a freaking Ace! An Ace!♣️

    The Force is strong in this one.

  207. 207.

    Cheryl Rofer

    @Adam L Silverman:

    And one of the keys to trying to map a network is to keep the pieces in place until you can identify the nodes, the connections, directionality, levels of influence, etc. The problem is always the temptation to take out key pieces of the network too soon.

    Agree. Which is one of the reasons we may be seeing indictments continuing for a while.

  210. 210.

    a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)

    @Adam L Silverman: Will Robert Parker’s noise (heard of but I’ve not seen yet) lead to an earlier arrest of Erik Parker? I’d want to watch Erik’s communications for a fair lengthy period were I investigating.

    I anticipate superceding and lengthier indictments for all current arrestees, with the possible exception of Cliver. I expect you’ll cover such topics in your next Bundy, et al. post

  211. 211.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    @debbie: Nelson Rockefeller (1964) John Connelly (1980), Malcolm Forbes Jr (1996) Rudy Giulianni (2008) Mittens (2012) proved having the most money can’t buy you love

  212. 212.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    I also too think there might be something to this

    ‏@ HeerJeet
    @ BenjySarlin I said this back in August. This is like the Producers. Trump wants to fail but these damn voters keep putting him on top.

    I would enjoy this campaign more if the role of Trump were played by Zero Mostel

  215. 215.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    Hah. At the end:

    “I look forward to working you to make that dream come true”

    No swallowed word, just “working you”, clear as a bell.

    Ain’t going to be working anyone politically again, my friend. Buh bye.

  219. 219.

    Mike in NC

    The SC primary is all over, yet these GOP fuckwits like Right to Rise PAC are still running robot attack TV ads. Burn that money, morons.

  220. 220.

    Ruckus

    @BillinGlendaleCA:
    Meg destroyed the theory, not just proved it might be wrong. But we’re still in the “We don’t believe our lying eyes” stage right now. And ¿jeb? has no idea that his eyes are lying, what with the family behind him.

    ETA I’m still wondering who it was who was able to convince him to drop out. It couldn’t be Babs, or his idiot brother. Had to be one of the money men who finally figured out he was wasting an awful lot of it.

  221. 221.

    Brachiator

    RE: I can see the Bush apparatus “graciously offering” to accept the burden of figurehead.

    Interesting speculation, but not going to happen. At this point, the worst case scenarios for both parties is the rise of the outsider candidates, Trump and Sanders. Unfortunately, neither party can afford to alienate the activist core of voters and so must let this thing play out naturally.

    I was away from all media shortly after results started rolling in, so I did not know that Jeb had rolled up his ! and gone home. I suppose that a hint that the Establishment was going to dump him ASAP came when the governor of South Carolina enthusiastically endorsed Baby Rubio. This also reinforces the idea that the Establishment is unlikely to come back later and seek Jeb out as a compromise candidate.

    Jeb needs a rest. Maybe at a West Texas ranch. He should be sure to take a pillow.

    What? Too soon?

    ETA: What happened to the bold italic quote thingies?

  222. 222.

    Splitting Image

    Well, that ends my streak of successfully predicting the Republican nominee dating back to 1988. Thanks a heap, Jeb. Riddance good to rubbish bad, though. You only had to look at his foreign policy advisors to see that he was the worst candidate of them all.

    Looking ahead, I think that Carson and Kasich are both irrelevant at this point, although Ohio-Guy may see some speculation as a VP candidate. So I guess the “establishment vote” has no choice but to coalesce around Rubio.

    This means we’re looking at a three way race between Trump, Cruz, and Rubio. Trump is unreliable; Cruz is odious; and Rubio is a featherweight. I’m not sure why people are so dismissive of Hillary Clinton’s chances. I have trouble seeing how she’ll lose to any of them. Trump is very likely to bluster along all summer talking about how great he would be in a crisis, then do a John McCain and have nothing to say when a real crisis comes along. A 4-4 Supreme Court may present a lot of opportunities for this to happen.

    No idea who will end up the winner, but I guess the TV bobbleheads will pimp for Rubio and Kasich on a Florida/Ohio ticket. The Republicans need both states.

  224. 224.

    Mike in NC

    We visit Florida at least once a year to visit friends, so I hope to someday be able to piss on JEBzzz grave.

  230. 230.

    different-church-lady

    The good news is there is no chance another Bush will be president.

    The bad news is there’s still a chance someone infinitely worse will be.

  231. 231.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    @Brachiator:

    What happened to the bold italic quote thingies?

    I have the thingies just fine. However, I wasn’t able to do the usual select/copy/paste with your sentence for the blockquote, and had to type it. By hand. On the keyboard. With my fingers.

    God. Life is SO FUCKING HARD sometimes.

  232. 232.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    So Hillary won 6 out of 6 coin tosses in Iowa.

    Today she pulls an Ace of the deck to break a tie in Nevada.

    This would make a great paranormal episode of The X-Files.

  233. 233.

    different-church-lady

    @Cacti:

    In contrast, I think she’d have a very easy time getting under Trump’s skin just with sticking to the facts by laughing at him.

  236. 236.

    Ruckus

    @Splitting Image:
    As we well know the repubs will vote to beat any dem, just like we will do to beat any repub. Turnout is the key. For both sides. Whichever does that best will win. My hope is that many of the repub voters are so turned off by their choice of tDump or little teddy that they stay home.

    The repubs have been waging war against anything liberal since Regan. We’ve had a few victories, I hope we keep that going, along with flipping the senate.

  237. 237.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @different-church-lady: this time…

    there are already two more generations out there, and the one who already holds a statewide TX office (I think?) now has a daddy to avenge. This does not bode well….

  240. 240.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    Big Week, Next Week:

    Saturday: South Carolina primary

    Sunday: Academy Awards with gorgeous gowns. (photo)

    Tuesday: Freaking Super Tuesday

    And perhaps a SCOTUS nomination.

  242. 242.

    Adam L Silverman

    @efgoldman: The people that could most likely won’t. They won’t be able to bring themselves to break their oaths. The ideological entrepreneurs trying to motivate folks likely won’t either. Cliven Bundy didn’t want to fight, he wanted others to do so for him. His sons and Finicum didn’t want to abrogate their grazing arrangements, they wanted others to do it. Though in his defense, Finicum claimed he’d actually done this. Blaine Cooper didn’t stand his ground at the refuge, he slunk away through the wilderness area when everyone was focused on the newly erected cordon by the FBI. Stewart Rhodes from the Oathkeepers never left home. And on and on and on. There’s a lot of big talk, there’s not a lot of big action. And what action there is, the big talkers all immediately deny responsibility and hide behind the 1st Amendment.

  243. 243.

    sharl

    Just took an unscientific (statistically insignificant) look at some of the tweets that were returned from a Twitter search on “Carson drop out”, and there are clearly some rattled and irked social conservatives out there, haha. A number of them are Cruz supporters, each one’s contempt presumably nourishing the ego of the Gifted Hands™ man, in light of that sordid business in Iowa with the dirty tricks done by Cruz operatives.

    The retired neurosurgeon’s invented autobiographical anecdotes (along with those helpfully created by others) weren’t enough in the end, but at least he’ll have these final days tormenting Cruz as a consolation prize.

    One or two in that small sampling were more of the anybody-but-Trump camp, religious folks who are skeptical that Trump is the yuuugest, best Christian there has ever been.
    __ __ __ __

    On another note, I don’t know what to make of this – Fox trying to set him up, or Fox coming to terms with his ballot successes?

    Jason Seher @jhseher

    Hannity announces he’ll have @realDonaldTrump for the full hour on Monday night, with a studio audience

    10:05 PM – 20 Feb 2016

    ..
    FYI/FWIW, Seher is a writer for Jake Tapper’s CNN show.

  244. 244.

    a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)

    @Adam L Silverman: I suspect it might require specialized CBT, and it’s a bit awkward to try to schedule a session on a day I’m there to teach. It also really confuses the folks at the front desk, who aren’t paid well enough to manage that kind of ambiguity.

    My habit is partly a professional (crim law) interest. And perhaps a bit of pathology as well.

  251. 251.

    Adam L Silverman

    @a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q): To answer your question more seriously: I think they have been tracking Parker, and likely his brother as well, since the Bunkerville standoff in 2014. The issue, as always, is going to be can they bring him or them in in a way that doesn’t get out of control. My guess is that both Parker brothers have known they are on borrowed time since Cliven Bundy was indicted and several others were rounded up for the events in 2014.

  265. 265.

    sharl

    @debbie: Thanks! I did not know that, only that Trump and Murdoch have butted heads on social media on a number of occasions. I assumed (clearly incorrectly) that the anti-Trump stance would apply throughout most of the Fox network, especially given Trump’s contentious situation with Megyn Kelly (sp?).

    I don’t know where Trump stands with Murdoch or Ailes, but even if those guys don’t like Trump, it’s probably good corporate politics to hedge their bets and let Hannity and maybe one or two other Fox folks continue to play nice with The Donald, just to keep the door open.

  266. 266.

    mclaren

    @amk:

    Funny to see how people are using the past to predict the future while the future is happening right in front of their disbelieving eyes.

    Pro tip: if something in happening in front of your eyes, it is by definition the present and not the future.

  268. 268.

    mclaren

    @BillinGlendaleCA:

    The good news is there is no chance another Bush will be president.
    I wouldn’t be too sure about that, there’s always “Bush, the Next Generation”.

    Yes, Jenna will surely make an awesome presidential candidate.

  272. 272.

    Anne Laurie

    @Adam L Silverman:

    I think they have been tracking Parker, and likely his brother as well, since the Bunkerville standoff in 2014.

    I haven’t been paying enough attention. When the first batch was arrested, I noticed on the tweetstreams/media that Parker was the only one with (a) actual military training & (b) not much easy-to-google social media presence. I wondered if he might be the FBI plant “everyone” was talking about — but I guess it makes more sense that he’s just more serious/sophisticated about not sharing his business with the whole eavesdropping world!

  273. 273.

    Anne Laurie

    @mclaren:

    Jenna will surely make an awesome presidential candidate.

    The Bushes, like other royalists, don’t include females in the dynastic reckoning except as brood mares to be traded with other “well born” families. But Jeb’s kid George P. — one of the “little brown ones” per Grandpapa — already has his uncle’s old job as Texas land commissioner, so they’ll be back!

  278. 278.

    What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?

    @BR: I wouldn’t be too worried about the Donald. Trump is dismally unpopular with everyone outside the Republican base. That includes independents, with whom his net favorability rating is way negative. He looks reasonably popular in a GOP primary – where the people being polled are likely GOP voters – but in the general my guess is he’s going to tank hard. The Democratic candidate will get all Democratic votes and most of the independents. There’s no way a Republican candidate can win a majority if that happens.

    I actually think this year’s Republican convention could be a blue haired version of the 1968 Democratic convention with factions fighting in the seats, and my only hope is they’re not packing, but that’s a slim hope amongst the Republican electorate. On the other hand, a gun battle on the convention floor would doom the Republican party for decades, if not permanently, which would do the country good.

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