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You are here: Home / Politics / Politicans / Cruz-ifiction / Long Late Night Open Thread: The GOP Caucus in Nevada, Now in Process

Long Late Night Open Thread: The GOP Caucus in Nevada, Now in Process

by Anne Laurie|  February 23, 201611:36 pm| 217 Comments

This post is in: Cruz-ifiction, Election 2016, Hail to the Hairpiece, Open Threads, Republican Stupidity, Republicans in Disarray!, Assholes

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Just under 10 percent of Republicans have pre-registered, surpassing total caucus turnout (8%) in '12. 10% is new baseline for enthusiasm!

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) February 23, 2016

Trump's Las Vegas rally tonight is planning for 10,000 people. Four years ago just 33,000 voted in the NV GOP caucus. Do the math.

— AlGiordano (@AlGiordano) February 23, 2016

So an Obama conspiracy theorist, a race-profiling sheriff and a bloviating billionaire walk into a state and… https://t.co/SEVtr1s04i

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) February 23, 2016

(Deservedly) harsh things were said about the less-than-optimum Democratic caucus in Nevada, but it seems like the Repubs are determined wipe out all memories of last weekend through sheer force of inepiptitude/venality…

I don't know of any org less prepared to deal with unusually high turnout than NV GOP. Also, no org less equipped to deal w/low turnout.

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) February 24, 2016

11 names on the ballot, though only 6 still running. State party doesn't nix names since candidates pay. #NVcaucus pic.twitter.com/xmhgFUKJbA

— Julia L. Ritchey (@juliaritchey) February 24, 2016


Entrance polls MSNBC: Evangelicals 32 percent Very or somewhat conservative 83 percent.

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) February 24, 2016

Trump Crashed Glenn Beck Speech at Nevada Caucus Site https://t.co/F48cEGTI2c (VIDEO) pic.twitter.com/C8o0Ax3BVz

— Mediaite (@Mediaite) February 24, 2016

Man here says "it's a disaster." No one is checking in or checking IDs. They're handing out ballots willy nilly. Some guy voted trump twice

— Emily Cahn (@CahnEmily) February 24, 2016

Now an announcement that they ran out of ballots. They "weren't expecting a crowd this size." #Nevadacaucus

— Emily Cahn (@CahnEmily) February 24, 2016

Here's a screenshot of a photo from caucus-goer. Ballot collector wearing Trump cap and shirt: pic.twitter.com/7JaBljotv6

— Elaina Plott (@elainaplott) February 24, 2016

Trump has so totally taken over the Nevada GOP caucuses that the Rubio & Cruz camps have discovered the words "election fraud." Chomp, chomp

— AlGiordano (@AlGiordano) February 24, 2016

there is still an organized effort by Paul diehards here to get out the vote for Rand tonight https://t.co/kj79Zp39yG

— Rosie Gray (@RosieGray) February 23, 2016

Trump lawyer warns Nevada GOP of Cruz tactics https://t.co/A6cIztE9lX

— andrew kaczynski (@BuzzFeedAndrew) February 23, 2016

GOP official on caucus insanity, reports of double voting. pic.twitter.com/CY6ACvLssM

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) February 24, 2016

pic.twitter.com/xfgkG7hc4R

— Adam Weinstein (@AdamWeinstein) February 24, 2016

Caucusgoer at crowded site tells @rgj: “I’ll never do this again … Not an experience I’m interested in repeating.” https://t.co/dYHJZSLxe6

— USA TODAY 2016 (@usatoday2016) February 24, 2016

The funniest/saddest part was the organizer begging every person who voted to be a county delegate and all of them being like nah

— McKay Coppins (@mckaycoppins) February 24, 2016

Worth noting that all of this mess is happening in Las Vegas which is covering with reporters. Who knows what's going on in Elko . . .

— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) February 24, 2016

Word of warning: We're probably not going to know who wins the NV GOP caucuses until tomorrow morning – at earliest https://t.co/zvlA6Qaps3

— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) February 23, 2016

A glimpse into how they'll be tallying the Nevada results, per @WSJ pic.twitter.com/KmtGhTYSTf

— Sara Murray (@SaraMurray) February 21, 2016

If this is not grounds for a credentials fight, I don't know what is.

— Jay Cost (@JayCostTWS) February 24, 2016

The County Conventions are going to be a zoo. Again. https://t.co/IKzgEt6v5X

— Wyeth Ruthven (@wyethwire) February 24, 2016

If only Nevada GOP officials had been given some sign that Republican voter turnout might be unusually high this year.

— Drew Cline (@DrewHampshire) February 24, 2016

Given how late results are coming in, NV caucus chaos narrative will feature prominently in am newspaper coverage #deadlines

— Zeke Miller (@ZekeJMiller) February 24, 2016

By the way, let's not forget that a bill to switch to a primary died in a GOP-controlled Legislature. THIS is your NV GOP. #wematterfornow

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) February 23, 2016

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Reader Interactions

217Comments

  1. 1.

    Trentrunner

    February 23, 2016 at 11:41 pm

    I just realized I didn’t note when Fiorina bowed out. When did that happen? How did I miss those 60 seconds of schadenfreude?

    Not with a bang, but a whimper, apparently.

  2. 2.

    Cain

    February 23, 2016 at 11:41 pm

    I wish confusion on my enemies.

  3. 3.

    Anoniminous

    February 23, 2016 at 11:41 pm

    To repeat from the last thread.

    KKK showed up to support their guy, the Trump.

  4. 4.

    Suzanne

    February 23, 2016 at 11:44 pm

    @Cain: Well, success. Sounds like a shit show.

    I grow old, I grow old.

  5. 5.

    Anoniminous

    February 23, 2016 at 11:46 pm

    Sounds like a major Charlie Foxtrot.

  6. 6.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 23, 2016 at 11:47 pm

    @Suzanne: In the room the women come and go
    Talking of Michelangelo.

  7. 7.

    dr. bloor

    February 23, 2016 at 11:49 pm

    @srv:

    This is what freedom looks like.

    Next thing you know, they’ll be looting the Hard Rock Cafe museum and pulling down Wayne Newton’s statue.

  8. 8.

    Anoniminous

    February 23, 2016 at 11:50 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Alfred? Is that you?

  9. 9.

    Anne Laurie

    February 23, 2016 at 11:51 pm

    @Anoniminous: Saw that, but I’m not sure it won’t turn out to be anti-Trump ratfvckers/protestors — could be Dems, could be other Repubs. (Wouldn’t surprise me if they were disgruntled Rand supporters, like the guys in robot costumes following Rubio.) Same threads I saw Rep. Ford’s tweet had pro-Trump tweeters saying the hands holding those signs looked surprisingly dark for Klan supporters…

  10. 10.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 23, 2016 at 11:52 pm

    @Anoniminous: No! I am not Prince Hamlet, nor was meant to be.

  11. 11.

    PhoenixRising

    February 23, 2016 at 11:53 pm

    Okay, I’m going to bed, exit laughing.

    A troubling portion of NV GOP volunteers don’t know how to tally. Literally, grouping your hash marks into 5 so that you can quickly count by 5 and check your addition is apparently no longer taught in the 4th grade and they are going to make so many mistakes that Cruzers will never be able to stop talking about the theft of the election in Nevada.

    Popcorn. Mmm.

  12. 12.

    sinnedbackwards

    February 23, 2016 at 11:55 pm

    @Suzanne: Do I dare to eat a peach?

  13. 13.

    PaulW

    February 23, 2016 at 11:59 pm

    And to think, Jeb is missing all of this excitement.

  14. 14.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    February 24, 2016 at 12:01 am

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    I am not Prince Hamlet

    Got any proof, Rock?

  15. 15.

    MomSense

    February 24, 2016 at 12:01 am

    They just called it for der Trump.

  16. 16.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 24, 2016 at 12:01 am

    @PaulW: It’s past his preferred bedtime.

  17. 17.

    Nate Dawg

    February 24, 2016 at 12:01 am

    Trump won. Top of hour called. Wow.

  18. 18.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    February 24, 2016 at 12:02 am

    Damn, I was all excited to see Rubio in third, then I saw only 3% reporting.

  19. 19.

    Anoniminous

    February 24, 2016 at 12:02 am

    @Anne Laurie:

    Been enough reports the KKK is supporting Trump for me to find it believable.

  20. 20.

    PeakVT

    February 24, 2016 at 12:02 am

    But its always the Democrats who are in disarray, not Republicans, because alliteration = logic to our shitty media.

  21. 21.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    February 24, 2016 at 12:02 am

    @Trentrunner: They tried to keep her campaign alive to harvest what was left of her soul, but then just gave up. I think there’s video.

  22. 22.

    Anoniminous

    February 24, 2016 at 12:04 am

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    That is not it at all, that is not what I meant, at all.

  23. 23.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 24, 2016 at 12:04 am

    @Bill E Pilgrim: My dad is still alive (and married to my mom) and none of us has been to Denmark. My dad’s sister has, but I don’t think that is particularly germane.

  24. 24.

    Nate Dawg

    February 24, 2016 at 12:05 am

    So much for the 30% ceiling. I do love watching the establishment pundits fall on their faces.

  25. 25.

    Trentrunner

    February 24, 2016 at 12:05 am

    Won’t this be Trump’s first over-40% win?

    So where’s his ceiling exactly?

  26. 26.

    Anya

    February 24, 2016 at 12:06 am

    @Anoniminous: The KKK is the last thing we should worry about. Trump’s demagoguery & the way he mainstreamed racism is the danger we should worry about.

  27. 27.

    Tripod

    February 24, 2016 at 12:06 am

    Attending a GOP caucus is a lame fuck around – totally did not see that coming.

  28. 28.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    February 24, 2016 at 12:07 am

    @Omnes Omnibus: Oh I wasn’t actually asking. I was just using that as an excuse to write proof rock.

  29. 29.

    ChrisH

    February 24, 2016 at 12:07 am

    I’m coming around to the idea that if the Senate refuses to even hold hearings on Obama’s SCOTUS nominee, Obama, after two or three months should say “Okay, the Senate didn’t vote you down so you’re a Supreme Court Justice now”

    After all, the constitution says the Senate shall “Advise and Consent” to the President’s nominations and according to most Republican lawmakers, “She didn’t say no” totally counts.

  30. 30.

    West of the Cascades

    February 24, 2016 at 12:07 am

    @sinnedbackwards: I do not think that Trump will sing to me.

  31. 31.

    PhoenixRising

    February 24, 2016 at 12:08 am

    @Nate Dawg: But for the precedent set by Mussolini, this would be hilarious.

    I thought I was going to enjoy the GOP collapsing, but I’m finding it troubling instead.

    (I’m not so sure it’s funny anymore. Trump/Clinton in the fall means we are 1 nutball away from President Donald.)

  32. 32.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 24, 2016 at 12:08 am

    @Anoniminous: And would it have been worth it, after all.

  33. 33.

    Anoniminous

    February 24, 2016 at 12:08 am

    @Anya:

    Trump’s a clown. It’s the next guy who may not be a clown we have to worry about.

  34. 34.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 24, 2016 at 12:10 am

    @Bill E Pilgrim: I got it, but I didn’t have anything that worked within the canon so I improvised.

  35. 35.

    sinnedbackwards

    February 24, 2016 at 12:10 am

    When Trump wins AND it is discovered that a bunch of the electoral workers were openly wearing his paraphernalia, they will deserve all of it. Incompetence IS a double-edged banana.

    Plus also too Yertle. The signs are with us, work your butts off dudes! We CAN save this country.

  36. 36.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    February 24, 2016 at 12:10 am

    @Anya: “in the good old days, that guy would’ve been carried out on a stretcher”

    There’s some scary shit there. I’ve seen a couple of people say we’re whistling past the graveyard on Trump. I absolutely am. I hope Obama’s faith in the American electorate, or his own coalition, bears out.

  37. 37.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    February 24, 2016 at 12:12 am

    @Trentrunner:

    So where’s his ceiling exactly?

    Here

    From

  38. 38.

    Suzanne

    February 24, 2016 at 12:12 am

    So they called it for Trump.
    GOP One: They’ve gone to plaid.

  39. 39.

    Nate Dawg

    February 24, 2016 at 12:13 am

    Yes absolutely. Very disturbing. I don’t think he’s as likely to lose as Dems seem to think. But even still, the Fascist wing of the GOP is taking over. That’s scary shit.

  40. 40.

    sinnedbackwards

    February 24, 2016 at 12:13 am

    @West of the Cascades: Till media voices swamp us, and we drown.

  41. 41.

    amk

    February 24, 2016 at 12:14 am

    “Frustration’s not a plan. Being angry’s not a plan,”

    sayeth the water boy puppet robotio.

  42. 42.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 24, 2016 at 12:14 am

    @Bill E Pilgrim: “You got it backwards.”

  43. 43.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    February 24, 2016 at 12:14 am

    @Omnes Omnibus: Oh sorry. It seemed like such a sincere answer I felt bad for asking.

  44. 44.

    MomSense

    February 24, 2016 at 12:15 am

    Sweet constitution inspiring Jesus, but I do believe Republican nominee Trump is exactly the kind of nightmare scenario the founders had in mind when they created the electoral college.

  45. 45.

    Alex

    February 24, 2016 at 12:15 am

    So… Trump is driving the high GOP turnout, right?

    As in… Republicans are really excited to vote for Trump?

  46. 46.

    Suzanne

    February 24, 2016 at 12:17 am

    @sinnedbackwards: And in short, I was afraid.

  47. 47.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 24, 2016 at 12:17 am

    @Bill E Pilgrim: I hope this helps: Am I the only person who is aware of Taylor Swift’s latest album because of Ryan Adams?

  48. 48.

    dr. bloor

    February 24, 2016 at 12:20 am

    @ChrisH: And of course, the SCOTUS would go 4-4 on it when the Senate sued the prez.

  49. 49.

    Suzanne

    February 24, 2016 at 12:20 am

    @Omnes Omnibus: Have a girl child. You will get to hear all about the latest T. Swizzle releases.

  50. 50.

    Nate Dawg

    February 24, 2016 at 12:21 am

    @Omnes Omnibus: I don’t even know who Ryan Adams is, but can’t help but not know who Taylor Swift is. So you might be.

  51. 51.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    February 24, 2016 at 12:21 am

    @Suzanne:

    I shall wear my trousers rolled.

  52. 52.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    February 24, 2016 at 12:22 am

    @Omnes Omnibus: Uhm – okay I can’t tell you how many ways I’m lost with that particular question. It’s not you, it’s me. I’m aware of who the first name refers to, in a sort of can’t-help-it-sense, though not really with her music. The other, zip.

    Oh wait. I had a friend who liked someone named Brandy, did she do a song by him? Or is that someone else? Also how any of this fits — extraordinarily cleverly, I have no doubt — with the other things we’re discussing has gone whoosh right over my head.

    I’m like someone from another planet or century in some things, sorry.

  53. 53.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 24, 2016 at 12:22 am

    @Suzanne: I’ll give her credit for donating $250K to help Ke$ha’s legal case.

  54. 54.

    dr. bloor

    February 24, 2016 at 12:23 am

    @MomSense: Well, it could blow up in their faces because Trump lines up at the starting line for the general election about 80 EVs short of what he needs to win.

  55. 55.

    Suzanne

    February 24, 2016 at 12:23 am

    @SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel: I love that everyone on this here blog got the reference. It’s nice knowing smart, literate people, even if only through the series of toobz.

    Of course, then I quoted Spaceballs. Eliot and Spaceballs in the same thread.

    I will have you all know that this is how my mind works.

  56. 56.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    February 24, 2016 at 12:25 am

    @Omnes Omnibus: I’ve only heard Bad Blood, but I like it.

  57. 57.

    Suzanne

    February 24, 2016 at 12:25 am

    @Omnes Omnibus: I wish someone would donate $250K to my needs. Le sigh.

  58. 58.

    Suzanne

    February 24, 2016 at 12:27 am

    Jesus, what rock are some of y’all living under where T. Swift can’t find you?!

    I mean, I’m sort of jealous of that rock. She is on the radio constantly. Even more than Adele. Has been for at least three years. She is every-damn-where.

  59. 59.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 24, 2016 at 12:28 am

    @Bill E Pilgrim: Ryan Adams is an alt-country artist (with a short temper who used to lose his temper when concert-goers would call out for the Bryan Adams’ song “Summer of ’69” – so of course they would). He recently recorded Swift’s album “1989” song for song. Example: Swift, Adams.

  60. 60.

    Anoniminous

    February 24, 2016 at 12:29 am

    CNN has released an exit poll with a 10% MOE. We’re talking the reliability of using sheep’s livers and the flight of birds.

  61. 61.

    Amir Khalid

    February 24, 2016 at 12:30 am

    @Nate Dawg:
    I think he’s the guy who gets mistaken for the Summer of ’69 guy from Canada.

    ETA: Omnes beat me to it. I haz a sad.

  62. 62.

    BBA

    February 24, 2016 at 12:31 am

    Trump’s not a fascist! Fascists wear nicer uniforms.

  63. 63.

    Tripod

    February 24, 2016 at 12:32 am

    I’m a white male, age 18 to 49. Everyone listens to me — no matter how dumb my suggestions are.

  64. 64.

    MomSense

    February 24, 2016 at 12:32 am

    @dr. bloor:

    I’m just hoping that if he wins the popular vote, the electoral college will save us from ourselves.

  65. 65.

    Anne Laurie

    February 24, 2016 at 12:33 am

    @Trentrunner: Will no doubt be recycling this tomorrow…

    Who knew that the Republican Party was so undervalued it could be taken by "Eminent Domain?"

    — AlGiordano (@AlGiordano) February 24, 2016

  66. 66.

    Suzanne

    February 24, 2016 at 12:33 am

    I’m getting to the point with this Trump thing that if it’s gonna happen, I might as well just lie back and enjoy it. I mean, it’s fucking batshit. I might as well be entertained as the apocalypse approaches.

  67. 67.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 24, 2016 at 12:33 am

    @Amir Khalid: I started the conversation: I did have an advantage.

  68. 68.

    Matt McIrvin

    February 24, 2016 at 12:34 am

    @Suzanne: The station I mostly listen to won’t play Taylor Swift, but they’ll play Ryan Adams’ terrible covers of Taylor Swift. And they’ll play Adele, so there’s some kind of fine dividing line there.

    The stations my daughter demands to listen to in the car are about 50% Taylor Swift by weight.

  69. 69.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    February 24, 2016 at 12:34 am

    @Suzanne: Just a cable cutter from before there were cables. Practically.
    I’m no slouch in consuming media, but it’s all online, which means I never heard or see anything without selecting it specifically.

    Also living out of the country for more than a decade until fairly recently probably contributed.

  70. 70.

    Suzanne

    February 24, 2016 at 12:34 am

    @Amir Khalid: I love Ryan Adams, but Bryan Adams is way hotter. And “Summer of ’69” is a great fucking cheesy song and I will cut anyone who disagrees with me.

  71. 71.

    oldgold

    February 24, 2016 at 12:35 am

    Trump won the Republican Hispanic vote in Nevada. SMFH.

  72. 72.

    Anya

    February 24, 2016 at 12:35 am

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: This shit scares me too. I always thought things we hear from his rallies and interviews and the rest of the GOP are stuff we left behind in the 60s. Now it’s all out in the open.

    I never care about bunch of assholes wearing bed sheets. They’re so 1865. These guys are not a thread to anyone by themselves. Instead they’re a shield people us to point out to unacceptable racism while Trump’s bigotry is becoming normal.

  73. 73.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 24, 2016 at 12:37 am

    @Suzanne: If, as I expect, Clinton is the D nominee, she will laugh at him. It is the one thing he can’t stand. Watch the Nerd Prom where Obama eviscerated him. I expect that Clinton has already hired the writers from that speech.

  74. 74.

    Suzanne

    February 24, 2016 at 12:37 am

    @oldgold: I’m more interested to see who comes in second. I hate Rubio. I hate that sniveling little fuck. Hate hate hate.

  75. 75.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    February 24, 2016 at 12:38 am

    @Omnes Omnibus: Ah. I’m saying ah mainly because you made me realize that Bryan Adams is who wrote the song that this singer Brandy did. This was a friend in France who used to play her songs when I came over, she was a big fan of anything American and of that style. Brandy is Snoop Dog’s sister.

  76. 76.

    Nate Dawg

    February 24, 2016 at 12:38 am

    @oldgold: Yes, and I’ve already seen Trumpeters claiming this means he’ll win the Latino vote in the general. Let’s let them think that.

  77. 77.

    Suzanne

    February 24, 2016 at 12:39 am

    @Omnes Omnibus: Graydon Carter says that Trump is STILL bitter about the “short-fingered vulgarian” comment. From thirty years ago.

    I almost have to admire someone who can hold on to a grudge that long.

  78. 78.

    Anoniminous

    February 24, 2016 at 12:40 am

    @oldgold:

    That’s the poll with a 10% Margin of Error. Meaningless, IOW.

  79. 79.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    February 24, 2016 at 12:40 am

    @Bill E Pilgrim: Oh come on. I accidentaly bolded that whole section and now “you don’t have permission to edit”, yeesh. Ah well. Also, thanks for the info.

  80. 80.

    Nate Dawg

    February 24, 2016 at 12:41 am

    Really though, what do you do with a state where the people who live there don’t even know how to pronounce its name?

    Neva(h)da should be relegated to Super Tuesday and some other, less shitty, state should take its place.

  81. 81.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 24, 2016 at 12:41 am

    @Suzanne: Hills can kill him with that.

  82. 82.

    hamletta

    February 24, 2016 at 12:42 am

    @Omnes Omnibus: That’s what some GOP strategist, Steve something-or-other, was saying in a clip on MSNBC. “Why aren’t these guys getting to him? It’s so easy to get inside his head!”

  83. 83.

    Suzanne

    February 24, 2016 at 12:42 am

    @Nate Dawg: I prefer to call them “sTrumpets”.

  84. 84.

    Anya

    February 24, 2016 at 12:43 am

    @Omnes Omnibus: I wish you’re right. I am so scared that idiots on the D side will vote for him when he triangulates on gun control, reproductive rights and he’s more dovish on foreign policy than HRC. And of course he’ll still have the MSM on his side.

  85. 85.

    Nate Dawg

    February 24, 2016 at 12:43 am

    Drugde has a small, simple headline.

    “The Nominee”

    (Spoiler: It’s not a latino Republican candidate).

  86. 86.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 24, 2016 at 12:43 am

    @hamletta: None of them have a sense of humor.

  87. 87.

    Suzanne

    February 24, 2016 at 12:44 am

    @Omnes Omnibus: And I hope she does. I welcome some Molly Ivins-style verbal shivving from our Hillz.

    The barely mitigated passive-aggressive nastiness is one of the things I am looking forward to as I get old. It’s absolutely charming in women of a certain age.

  88. 88.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    February 24, 2016 at 12:46 am

    Question for those of you who are more familiar with the lefty blogosphere than I am:

    Has BooMan always been such a bleak pessimist? I’ve been reading him pretty regularly for maybe a year or a little more. Recently he is such an Eeyore I can scarcely bear to read his posts. I know his brother died a few months ago, so I’m cutting him a lot of emotional slack, but I don’t think I can take the incessant doom-and-gloom much longer.

  89. 89.

    Tripod

    February 24, 2016 at 12:47 am

    GOP’s generation Boomer is going out like a bunch of cry babies, and Trump is their shitty cover band version of the Gipper.

  90. 90.

    MomSense

    February 24, 2016 at 12:49 am

    @Suzanne:

    Just wait until your body starts going from 98.6 to inferno in under 3 seconds. All desire to mitigate is instantly cured.

  91. 91.

    RaflW

    February 24, 2016 at 12:49 am

    @oldgold: OTOH, I saw that about 5,000 or 6,000 Hispanics estimated to have attended the GOP caucus, and 16,000 the Dem one. So one should only take from that a certain frisson of self-hate among Republican Hispanics.

  92. 92.

    Anoniminous

    February 24, 2016 at 12:49 am

    @SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel:

    Been going there from the get-go. He’s gotten worse since he starting writing for Washington Monthly.

  93. 93.

    Anya

    February 24, 2016 at 12:49 am

    @SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel: I used to read his blog regularly but for some reason I drifted away from it. I never saw him as a pessimist. I actually enjoyed his blog. Generally, I hate “the sky is falling crowd” so I would’ve noticed if he was one of them.

  94. 94.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 24, 2016 at 12:50 am

    @Anya: This country elected a Black dude with a funny name and weird ears twice..

    Also, low info voters won’t vote for a laughingstock. Make him the joke that he actually is and he is toast.

  95. 95.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    February 24, 2016 at 12:51 am

    @Suzanne:

    I read that Graydon Carter piece a few weeks ago. My favourite bit was the revelation that every time a picture of Trump is in a magazine, he tears out the page, circles his fingers with a gold Sharpie, scrawls “Long fingers!!” on the page, and sends it to Carter.

    LOL at the gold Sharpie.

  96. 96.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    February 24, 2016 at 12:53 am

    @Suzanne:

    A flourish of sTrumpets.

  97. 97.

    MomSense

    February 24, 2016 at 12:54 am

    @SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel:

    You know Davis x Machina’s purer than you always persona? Well the real thing took over the comments section a few years ago and it is tiring. Our man in Portland is a regular there and fits in. I read Boo every day but rarely comment now. He is also editing Washington Monthly.

  98. 98.

    BillinGlendaleCA

    February 24, 2016 at 12:54 am

    @Trentrunner:

    So where’s his ceiling exactly?

    25%. That’s what the media told me.

  99. 99.

    Amir Khalid

    February 24, 2016 at 12:54 am

    @SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel:
    A fanfare of sTrumpets?

  100. 100.

    Steeplejack

    February 24, 2016 at 12:55 am

    @dr. bloor:

    Okay, LOL. Good one.

  101. 101.

    pseudonymous in nc

    February 24, 2016 at 12:56 am

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Make him the joke that he actually is and he is toast.

    Given how thin-skinned he is, and how obviously he has a glass jaw, it’s going to be funny to see him be uneasily embraced by the establishment GOP then slapped silly by the Dem nominee.

    He’s not as rich as he says he is, he’s a shitty businessman, and if his creditors called in their markers he’d be fucking panhandling before next Tuesday. He’s a WWE fiction who broke the fourth wall.

  102. 102.

    BR

    February 24, 2016 at 12:56 am

    @SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel:

    Has BooMan always been such a bleak pessimist? I’ve been reading him pretty regularly for maybe a year or a little more. Recently he is such an Eeyore I can scarcely bear to read his posts. I know his brother died a few months ago, so I’m cutting him a lot of emotional slack, but I don’t think I can take the incessant doom-and-gloom much longer.

    Actually I don’t think he’s being pessimistic. I think he’s being realistic — his track record is pretty good in terms of calling things correctly. I’ve been reading him lately and find his take on things better than anyone else out there.

  103. 103.

    Anya

    February 24, 2016 at 12:56 am

    @Omnes Omnibus: That black dude with a funny name was exteremly impressive, diciplined, very smart, inspirational and a great campaigner. Also, the country was demoralized from the W years. HRC is a terrible campaigner and her people are terrible. And the country is economically not in a dire situation.

    I agree with you that Trump is a clown but the media doesn’t treat him the way he deserves. And I am not sure Hillary is skilled enough to exploit that weakness.

  104. 104.

    cckids

    February 24, 2016 at 12:56 am

    @Suzanne:

    She is every-damn-where.

    This. So, so much this.

    And all her songs are unendingly ear-wormy. They will stay with you for-fucking-ever.

  105. 105.

    Splitting Image

    February 24, 2016 at 12:59 am

    @SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel:

    Has BooMan always been such a bleak pessimist? I’ve been reading him pretty regularly for maybe a year or a little more. Recently he is such an Eeyore I can scarcely bear to read his posts. I know his brother died a few months ago, so I’m cutting him a lot of emotional slack, but I don’t think I can take the incessant doom-and-gloom much longer.

    He was actually pretty optimistic about the Democrats’ chances in 2014. He was one of the only writers who thought turnout would be high enough to save the Senate. The pessimism is a recent development, possibly resulting from being as wrong as he was that cycle.

  106. 106.

    RaflW

    February 24, 2016 at 1:00 am

    OT, but how is it that Ann Coulter hasn’t starved to death or had an anorexia-induced heart attack yet?

    (Not totally OT, since what made me think of it was seeing an RT of one of her typically ultra-nasty, racist garbage tweets about Rubio re: Nevada results).

  107. 107.

    piratedan

    February 24, 2016 at 1:00 am

    find it enlightening that the party of so-called fiscal responsibility and personal accountability is about to nominate a man who has never run for public office in any capacity, has declared bankruptcy multiple times because he couldn’t make enough profit from running a casino(s) to be their standard-bearer. His main platform appears to be, build a wall between the US and Mexico and deport a bunch of illegals, if he can find them and “make America great again” simply by electing him. Somehow, someway, the US media will fluff this guy into taking those flaws and making them somehow palatable in comparison to whoever wins the Dem nomination. Then if they succeed in bringing off this abomination, they’ll sit back and watch the ratings roll in as this abomination unfolds

  108. 108.

    CaseyL

    February 24, 2016 at 1:00 am

    Remember when people were saying Trump’s supporters went to his rallies but wouldn’t turn out to vote?

    Record-breaking turnout, and it’s all for him.

    The sheer enthusiasm for Trump is shocking.

    It’s wonderful to think of the GOP in panic mode, but more turnouts like this and I might join them.

  109. 109.

    BillinGlendaleCA

    February 24, 2016 at 1:01 am

    @Suzanne: I’ve heard the name, she sings right?

    (Remember, I live in a cave.)

  110. 110.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    February 24, 2016 at 1:01 am

    I’ll leave with this two cents: If Donald Trump is the nominee, which is looking increasingly likely, the Republicans are going to be demolished in November, not just the Presidency but down-ticket also. Democrats could take the House back. That’s what the GOP is so openly freaking about.

    I wrote a comment yesterday or something comparing it to what happened in France in 2002, won’t go into all the details again but it was a similar scare, but what everyone who heard “OMG the extreme right wing candidate came in second” didn’t necessarily hear was that the right winger lost the election by worse than 80% to 20%.

    That sort of thing rallies people. The right winger got the right stirred up over there also, just like Trump does, but that’s not enough to win. And it’s possibly enough to lose 80/20, or 70/30. Even 60/40 could bring Congress with it.

  111. 111.

    cckids

    February 24, 2016 at 1:01 am

    @oldgold:

    Trump won the Republican Hispanic vote in Nevada. SMFH.

    Well, according to Trump, he got 46% of the Hispanic vote.

    The Republican Hispanic vote.

    The has-time-for-caucusing Republican Hispanic vote.

    That could be a vanishingly small number.

  112. 112.

    piratedan

    February 24, 2016 at 1:01 am

    bleeping bleepity bleep, moderation zone

  113. 113.

    Anya

    February 24, 2016 at 1:03 am

    <a href="

    @jonfavs @nickconfessore there's obviously been a trade, mostly on TV, of laying off his dishonesty and bigotry on exchange for access.— Ben Smith (@BuzzFeedBen) February 22, 2016

    “>

  114. 114.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    February 24, 2016 at 1:03 am

    I blame Moe Greene

  115. 115.

    BillinGlendaleCA

    February 24, 2016 at 1:04 am

    In another edition of “small world”: I mentioned to the wife that there’s only one US District Judge who’s Korean-American(there’s also a judge on the ninth circuit that’s Korean-American), Judge Koh. She tells me she know this and her friend is the Judge’s aunt.

  116. 116.

    FlipYrWhig

    February 24, 2016 at 1:06 am

    @MomSense: The Booman comment section is like a Bob Avakian rally. It skews preachy, smug, and self-contented, and it doesn’t seem to be shtick — it’s all painfully earnest.

  117. 117.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 24, 2016 at 1:06 am

    @Anya:

    HRC is a terrible campaigner and her people are terrible.

    Well, if that is your view, then panic away. I am actually getting tired of pointing out that HRC’s campaign seems to be the one that is modeling itself closest to the 2008 Obama campaign.

    She fought a tough fight with the best politician since FDR. She was able to stand toe to toe with Obama. She can’t beat someone from the clown car? Come the fuck on.

  118. 118.

    gwangung

    February 24, 2016 at 1:06 am

    That sort of thing rallies people.

    Like….Latinos?

    Good chance that this sleeping giant will awaken,,,and you bet you’re bippy African Americans will out against Trump. I think another one or two China jibes will get the Asian American electorate going.

    Whites ARE the largest ethnic group in this country….but POCs have some muscle now, too. And if there’s one candidate who’d unite POCs, it’d be Trump…..

    The Republican electorate looks grim to us liberals….but we’re not without resources of our own.

  119. 119.

    cckids

    February 24, 2016 at 1:06 am

    @Suzanne: I might agree if the grudge was for something, you know, real. But doing it because Carter quoted someone else printing the “short fingered” thing? He (Carter) said that 1-2 times a year Trump will STILL send him a photo of himself with his hand circled, asserting that they are “normal sized”.

    That’s beyond grudge territory into being a psychotic douchecanoe.

  120. 120.

    piratedan

    February 24, 2016 at 1:06 am

    ty o mystery moderator who released my comment…

  121. 121.

    Adam L Silverman

    February 24, 2016 at 1:08 am

    @Trentrunner: 40% of 12% or whatever sadly low number is the turnout percentage of the citizenry was, is a very, very low ceiling.

  122. 122.

    gwangung

    February 24, 2016 at 1:09 am

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    I am actually getting tired of pointing out that HRC’s campaign seems to be the one that is modeling itself closest to the 2008 Obama campaign.

    So, what other evidence is there that she’s a terrible campaigner (as opposed to merely competent)? Don’t point to 2012 now….that’s hardly over yet.

  123. 123.

    FlipYrWhig

    February 24, 2016 at 1:09 am

    @BillinGlendaleCA: I think the Kohs are like the First Family of Korean America. I worked for someone who knew the matriarch.

  124. 124.

    hilts

    February 24, 2016 at 1:10 am

    Bedwetting lowlife Glenn Beck is giving the warm up speech for Ted Cruz.

  125. 125.

    BillinGlendaleCA

    February 24, 2016 at 1:10 am

    @Omnes Omnibus: She’ll also raise questions of the Dumpster’s competence in running ANYTHING. (Bankruptcies, failed casinos… )

  126. 126.

    pseudonymous in nc

    February 24, 2016 at 1:10 am

    @CaseyL:

    Record-breaking turnout, and it’s all for him.

    Wayne Newton took the night off, I assume.

    If Trump represents the dead-cat bounce of white American fuck-em-all bigotry, combined with some weird masochistic desire among white liberals to stay at home and not put in the hours they did for Obama in ’08 and ’12, then perhaps there’s nothing to be done about it other than to check your eligibility for Canadian residency and put your money in Chinese stocks.

  127. 127.

    Adam L Silverman

    February 24, 2016 at 1:10 am

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: He’s now gone on to say that he could kill someone in cold blood and still lead the GOP primary field:
    http://www.rawstory.com/2016/02/trump-doubles-down-i-could-murder-someone-in-cold-blood-and-still-lead-the-gop-candidate-field/

  128. 128.

    Fair Economist

    February 24, 2016 at 1:11 am

    @SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel: Booman is traditionally rather optimistic

  129. 129.

    Anya

    February 24, 2016 at 1:12 am

    I am not clean on this but I’ve read on the twitter machine thst only 8% of the Nevada caucus-goers were hispanic. I think this is the first good news of the day.

  130. 130.

    Mike J

    February 24, 2016 at 1:13 am

    @Suzanne:

    And “Summer of ’69” is a great fucking cheesy song and I will cut anyone who disagrees with me.

    I worked at a top40 station when that horrible Robin Hood song came out. I would be happy to never hear it again.

    There were other songs I played just as much, if not more, but that one stands out for its awfulness and it seemed like it came up up at least twice a shift.

  131. 131.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    February 24, 2016 at 1:13 am

    @Amir Khalid:

    Here’s an ancient joke on the subject: Four scholars at Oxford were making their way down the street, and happened to see a group of ladies of the evening. “What’s this?” said the first. “A jam of tarts?” “Nay,” said the second, “an essay of Trollope’s.” “Rather, a flourish of strumpets,” advanced the third. “No, gentlemen,” concluded the last. “Here we have an anthology of pros.”

    (From WorldWideWords.org)

  132. 132.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 24, 2016 at 1:15 am

    @SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel: Well played.

  133. 133.

    pseudonymous in nc

    February 24, 2016 at 1:15 am

    It is possible to think that Hillary has certain Martha Coakley characteristics, that her inner circle has certain toxic characteristics, that the way she fought the ’08 rear-guard was not great, that There Is Drama.

    But, there are lots of Obama campaign people who are now unreserved Hillary campaign people. There are lots of Obama campaign people who may have reservations about Hillary but are not going to let El Trumpador triumph on account of them sitting on their hands.

  134. 134.

    Adam L Silverman

    February 24, 2016 at 1:16 am

    @Alex: They were expecting 40,000 people to turn out for the caucuses. That’s not a lot of turnout.

  135. 135.

    Suzanne

    February 24, 2016 at 1:16 am

    @SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel: That was my favorite detail, too. Like, you have to search for those. I wonder who is his gold Sharpie carrier.

    I’m into pens, but not really Sharpies. I’m more a gel pen girl.

  136. 136.

    BillinGlendaleCA

    February 24, 2016 at 1:17 am

    @piratedan: You wrote casino, that’s a bad word.

  137. 137.

    Thoroughly Pizzled

    February 24, 2016 at 1:18 am

    @Anya: Maybe a few white people, but I’d expect blacks and Hispanics to turn out in multitudes to stop Trump.

  138. 138.

    sukabi

    February 24, 2016 at 1:18 am

    @Bill E Pilgrim: yes, her legs were kicking on the table, while the electorate were yelling hold her down, we’ve got to harvest her brainzzz… campaign aborted successfully.

  139. 139.

    Adam L Silverman

    February 24, 2016 at 1:19 am

    @Anoniminous: This is what happens when you’re turning out a ridiculously small portion of the electorate.

  140. 140.

    Suzanne

    February 24, 2016 at 1:19 am

    @SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel: no, sTrumpets are like crows. Ergo: a murder of sTrumpets.

  141. 141.

    Amir Khalid

    February 24, 2016 at 1:20 am

    @SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel:
    Ah. I think the “fanfare of strumpets” must be from somewhere else.

  142. 142.

    Anya

    February 24, 2016 at 1:20 am

    I always notice here that people get angry and snippy whenever you voice an opinion different from theirs? Sometimes, you can be in a bad place when you consume so much negative media. That’s where I am at right now, so I am going to take my cautiously pesimistic opinion out of here before I get more condescending replies.

  143. 143.

    Fair Economist

    February 24, 2016 at 1:20 am

    @MomSense:

    You know Davis x Machina’s purer than you always persona? Well the real thing took over the comments [at the Booman Tribune] section a few years ago and it is tirin

    I think Davis x Machina’s purity pony parody was invented to mock the real thing over at Booman. It’s always been kind of that way though. Back in the mid-00’s it was one of numerous refugee blogs for those who were banned from DKos for being too liberal (weird concept, given that the DKos comments are mobbed with BernieBros but there was a time when pragmatists ruled at DKos, albeit always with a lot of dissent). Almost all the other refugee blogs are dead now.

  144. 144.

    BillinGlendaleCA

    February 24, 2016 at 1:20 am

    @piratedan: The secret to using bad words is to type part of the word, put a bold or italic code in there and then the rest.

  145. 145.

    amk

    February 24, 2016 at 1:22 am

    Is NV winner takes it all for the goppers?

  146. 146.

    Suzanne

    February 24, 2016 at 1:22 am

    @Mike J: The Robin Hood song is shit. “Summer of 69” is awesome.

  147. 147.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 24, 2016 at 1:22 am

    @Anya: Did I offend?

  148. 148.

    Anya

    February 24, 2016 at 1:22 am

    @Thoroughly Pizzled: That’s our hope.

  149. 149.

    piratedan

    February 24, 2016 at 1:22 am

    @BillinGlendaleCA: next time, I’ll just split the tens….. but ty, I had forgotten that word made WP go evil

  150. 150.

    Fair Economist

    February 24, 2016 at 1:23 am

    @amk: Nevada is strictly proportional for the GoP, unlike South Carolina where the “proportional” delegate rules turned out to be winner-take-all.

  151. 151.

    piratedan

    February 24, 2016 at 1:25 am

    @BillinGlendaleCA: ty Bill, I had forgotten it was one of the Carlin/WP verboten list

  152. 152.

    amk

    February 24, 2016 at 1:27 am

    @Fair Economist:

    Thanks. Looks like dreck will walk way with 15 out of 30 dels.

  153. 153.

    Adam L Silverman

    February 24, 2016 at 1:27 am

    @piratedan: you’re welcome

  154. 154.

    Anya

    February 24, 2016 at 1:27 am

    @Omnes Omnibus: It’s not your fault that I am in such a depressing mood about our election, media and the voters. Having said that, sometimes, it’s better to reason with people than treating them like an annoyance.

  155. 155.

    Adam L Silverman

    February 24, 2016 at 1:29 am

    @Suzanne: You can buy them in three packs at the grocery store. I have one, it came with a silver and a bronze one. I needed the silver one for a project.

  156. 156.

    Matt McIrvin

    February 24, 2016 at 1:30 am

    @Thoroughly Pizzled:

    Maybe a few white people, but I’d expect blacks and Hispanics to turn out in multitudes to stop Trump.

    Even if there are angry white open-carry guys parading around near the polling place? I expect some of that.

  157. 157.

    gwangung

    February 24, 2016 at 1:33 am

    @Anya: Honestly, it is time to be determined. It is not a slam dunk election…for EITHER side.

    Just remember, there are resources for the Dem side of the equation (about a third of the country). And what needs to be done there is to fight voter suppression (maybe, borrow techniques from the black churches for the Latino and Asian American churches)….

  158. 158.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 24, 2016 at 1:33 am

    @Anya: You know what? You are a nice person. I’ll just go to bed rather than respond.

  159. 159.

    BillinGlendaleCA

    February 24, 2016 at 1:35 am

    @Matt McIrvin: One of the feeds from a caucus on TRMS, it looked like a guy was packing in the background.

  160. 160.

    gwangung

    February 24, 2016 at 1:35 am

    @Matt McIrvin: You think the institutional memory of the NAACP and the black community has been lost?

  161. 161.

    GregB

    February 24, 2016 at 1:37 am

    Trump says “we’re gonna grab, grab, grab….”

    Hopefully he doesn’t begin with the Sudetenland

  162. 162.

    piratedan

    February 24, 2016 at 1:41 am

    @GregB: well, @GregB: British Columbia was originally part of our natural expansion plan that would allow us to connect Alaska with the rest of the country, as it should be….

  163. 163.

    Aleta

    February 24, 2016 at 1:43 am

    This might sound jokey but I half believe that if Trump could bring himself to run with Schwarzenegger, he might win. Unless H could run with Clooney …because the star power thing is working.

  164. 164.

    Adam L Silverman

    February 24, 2016 at 1:46 am

    @efgoldman: Sort of. The procedure is that the caucus ballots would be tallied, then that tally would be recorded on the outside of a large envelope in which the caucus ballots were enclosed and then sealed. A picture would be taken of the outside of the envelope with the recorded tally and texted to the appropriate electoral official for recording and what was written on the outside of the envelope in the texted picture was to be treated as the official tally.

    So not instagram, but they might as well have just used that.

  165. 165.

    BillinGlendaleCA

    February 24, 2016 at 1:47 am

    @Aleta: The Governator is not eligible to run for President or Vice President being that isn’t a Natural Born citizen.

  166. 166.

    Nate Dawg

    February 24, 2016 at 1:50 am

    Donald Trump is up to 47%.

    He’s can go toe-to-toe with every other candidate–combined.

    Next week will be a true sweep in the South (minus Texas).

    This is an Obama wave landslide for the GOP, and it may sweep Hillary under.

  167. 167.

    Nate Dawg

    February 24, 2016 at 1:53 am

    Trump said during his speech:

    “We won among non-college educated people. I love non-college educated people. We are the most hard-working. The most loyal.”

    Chilling.

    As I said a few months ago (not that anyone but me remembers), Trump is going to attack Hillary from the left on Free Trade, Wall Street, Lobbying, and the whole Sanders shtick.

    He will make a play for Bernie voters, and get plenty of them.

  168. 168.

    sinnedbackwards

    February 24, 2016 at 1:54 am

    @PhoenixRising: Life is about taking risks.

  169. 169.

    Aleta

    February 24, 2016 at 1:58 am

    @BillinGlendaleCA: Oh, for some reason was thinking that was just President. But of course. Well, he’d have to get Condi then. In truth it’s hard to see who he would be able to handle running with who would be willing to put up with him. A former Miss America? (Not serious)

  170. 170.

    ruemara

    February 24, 2016 at 2:00 am

    @Anya: Do you know her people are former Obama people? I’m just curious how her people are “terrible”.

  171. 171.

    Brachiator

    February 24, 2016 at 2:13 am

    @piratedan: The people who vote for Trump know all this and don’t care. And which media is fluffing Trump? Has Trump received endorsements from any conservative newspaper? Fox News alternately runs from him and embraces him. Trump has dumped on the WSJ and the National Review, and still keeps winning votes. The “media” could run anti Trump stories 24/7 and I doubt that it would make any difference. The people would not magically wake up and disown him.

    Right now I’m not seeing that there is much insight into the rise of Trump, or how to stop him. The GOP is afraid of him, but what can they do if he keeps racking up victories? They better pray that Baby Rubio can win some victories and put some distance between himself and the Terrible Cruz. When are the Texas and Florida primaries? If Trump wins these, watch the GOP wet their pants big-time.

  172. 172.

    FlipYrWhig

    February 24, 2016 at 2:14 am

    @Nate Dawg: Donald Trump winning non college educated REPUBLICANS means diddly shit about non college educated DEMOCRATS. He’s an obvious clown and bullshit artist. He’s not running “from the left” on anything. Settle down.

  173. 173.

    FlipYrWhig

    February 24, 2016 at 2:16 am

    I still don’t see how Trump is any different from Palin. Brag, whip up idiots with idiocy, get free media, say nothing.

  174. 174.

    Amir Khalid

    February 24, 2016 at 2:19 am

    @Nate Dawg:
    Donald Trump has well-known and exploitable vulnerabilities. People are aware of his vulgar manners, his bigotry, his lack of intellectual depth and his ignorance about how to govern. Those who will listen can be made aware of these shortcomings. There is hope to be found in these facts.

  175. 175.

    NotMax

    February 24, 2016 at 2:26 am

    11 names on the ballot, though only 6 still running.

    In reality, 12 names on the ballot, though only 5 still running.

    Math is hard.

    Or the cocktails are strong.

  176. 176.

    Calouste

    February 24, 2016 at 2:26 am

    The latest results indicate that Kasich, moderate John Kasich, is coming in fifth in a four-way race.

    And by the way, so much for the stories that Trump didn’t have a ground game in Nevada and would fail.

  177. 177.

    Ruckus

    February 24, 2016 at 2:27 am

    @FlipYrWhig:
    Not defending tDump in any way but he’s not saying nothing. He’s also not saying anything a rational person wants to hear but what he is saying is exactly what a portion of the right side of the aisle wants to hear. They’ve been primed for it for a while and as many others have said before the shit is coming home to roost. They were holding their noses and voting for Romney or the last guy, the drunk you sit next to in a dark bar sipping piss water. That’s why they are supportive, someone is talking their language. I don’t think he has much crossover appeal but the nose holders in the Greasy Old Poop party will vote for him. I’m anticipating about the same level as they did for Romney.

    Of course I’m wrong far more often than right so……..

  178. 178.

    NotMax

    February 24, 2016 at 2:32 am

    @Calouste

    Considering Kasich campaigned in Nevada less than Baud did, that’ ain’t a bad showing.

  179. 179.

    Nate Dawg

    February 24, 2016 at 2:41 am

    @FlipYrWhig: He has already attacked Clinton from the left, and will continue to do so. He is harnessing anti-Globalization and anti-Free Trade sentiment.

    There are not enough Democrats to win the election. We need moderates. He is attacking our candidate from her left.

    Keep plugging your fingers in your ears, but this is another “change wave”, and we don’t have a change candidate. We are essentially putting up Romney against Obama and hoping for the sensible outcome.

    Also: please remember 1980. Reagan was a joke that was going to be squashed by Carter. Look how that turned out.

  180. 180.

    Nate Dawg

    February 24, 2016 at 2:44 am

    @Amir Khalid: Sure, but….

    Let’s assume the following: hard-core Dems line up with Dem nominee. Hard-core Republicans line up with Republican nominee.

    Battle will be fought over moderates.

    Trump is *killing* among moderates: 56% of MODERATE REPUBLICANS voted for him. He won New Hampshire (a liberal Republican electorate).

    His positions on gay marriage, abortion, and other “hot button” social issues are rather moderate.

    His economic positions are a mix of economic populism (from the left), isolationism (left and right), and tax-cut goodness (right and left). These are winning positions.

    He has a clear message–something Hillary does not have.

  181. 181.

    opiejeanne

    February 24, 2016 at 2:51 am

    @Matt McIrvin: Thank God we vote by mail here.

  182. 182.

    NR

    February 24, 2016 at 2:57 am

    You all are seriously underestimating Trump. He said it tonight: I love the uneducated. His campaign is all about appealing to non college-educated whites. And like it or not, that could be enough to get him in the White House.

    Head over to Nate Silver’s Swing-O-Matic. I increased turnout among non college-educated whites to 70%, and gave Trump 70% of their votes, 8% better than Romney did in 2012. I also increased (as a backlash against Trump) Hispanic turnout by 10% and gave the Dems 80% of their votes, and increased Asian/Other by 10% and gave the Dems 75% of their votes. I left the black vote and the college-educated white vote the same.

    The final numbers were:

    College-educated whites: 56%R, 44%D, 77% turnout
    Non college-educated whites: 70%R, 30%D, 70% turnout
    Blacks: 93%D, 7%R, 66% turnout
    Hispanic/Latino: 80%D, 20%R, 58% turnout
    Asian/Other: 75%D, 25%R, 59% turnout

    The result? The Dems win the popular vote 49.6% to 48.7%. But the kicker is, the Dems only win 274 electoral votes in that scenario, and those just barely. OH (R+4), IA (R+4), NH (R+3) WI (R+2), and PA (R+0.1) all flip. The Dems barely hold on to FL (D+2), MI (D+2), VA (D+1.8), and CO (D+2). The tipping point state? MN, at D+0.4. In that scenario, Trump would certainly contest the state and probably win it, and thus the presidency. Trump’s message on trade and immigration, and his focus on non college-educated whites, could put the entire Midwest except Illinois in danger.

    Now it’s certainly possible that the Dems could increase their vote share among college-educated whites. But it’s also possible that black turnout could drop since Obama won’t be on the ticket. The Dems can still win, but it’s far from the slam-dunk sure thing a lot of you seem to think it is. We underestimate Trump at our peril.

  183. 183.

    David M

    February 24, 2016 at 2:58 am

    Let’s assume the following: hard-core Dems line up with Dem nominee. Hard-core Republicans line up with Republican nominee.

    Battle will be fought over moderates.

    Trump is *killing* among moderates: 56% of MODERATE REPUBLICANS voted for him. He won New Hampshire (a liberal Republican electorate).

    There’s potentially a pretty severe logic failure here. Republicans that vote in primaries aren’t in the group of “moderates” the general election candidates will be fighting over.

  184. 184.

    Sophist

    February 24, 2016 at 2:59 am

    @Anne Laurie:

    Same threads I saw Rep. Ford’s tweet had pro-Trump tweeters saying the hands holding those signs looked surprisingly dark for Klan supporters…

    Rhett just forgot to wash his hands after the cross-burning…

  185. 185.

    Calouste

    February 24, 2016 at 2:59 am

    @Nate Dawg: Well, if Sanders becomes the Democratic nominee, I’m 100% certain that if you leave voters the choice between two candidates who run away from the current president, they will pick the candidate that runs away the fastest. Far better to make it a pro vs anti Obama election, because in a mildly anti vs heavily anti election, heavily anti is going to win every single time.

  186. 186.

    Sophist

    February 24, 2016 at 3:02 am

    @Nate Dawg:

    Trump is *killing* among moderates: 56% of MODERATE REPUBLICANS voted for him.

    “Moderates” and “Moderate Republicans” are not the same thing.

  187. 187.

    Calouste

    February 24, 2016 at 3:05 am

    Cruz has just moved into second place, 16 votes ahead of Rubio.

  188. 188.

    Seebach

    February 24, 2016 at 3:15 am

    @Nate Dawg: Trump is absolutely dangerous. Can you really expect Americans to do the reasonable thing and not elect a reality TV star?

    Democrats have no reason to be smug and think this isn’t a huge danger. It’s a big, big danger.

  189. 189.

    gwangung

    February 24, 2016 at 3:22 am

    @NR:

    The Dems can still win, but it’s far from the slam-dunk sure thing a lot of you seem to think it is.

    THis is pretty true. But this is going to depend on GOTV, particularly among POCs. Not sure if you can move the needle that much among Asians (Trump has only beaten up Asians once or twice), but African Americans do remember Trump’s origins as a discriminator against black tenants, and they’re not going to miss the racial animus from his supports….and any Latino backlash is going to be way over 10% increase (they seriously underperform, but they’re going to be seriously motivated by Trump).

  190. 190.

    Nate Dawg

    February 24, 2016 at 3:33 am

    @NR: NR explained why I said what I said earlier.

    538’s swing-o-matic requires moving the non-educated white share by a mere 7% points to swing the election.

    Drive up turnout for them, and it can offset losses among college-educated whites. Drive down black turn-out, and we’re even more fucked.

    That said, the Democratic BASE is Latino’s and African-Americans. Look at 538. We should be placing ALL our eggs in those baskets.

    Not nominating Sanders is a good start to that end.

  191. 191.

    Nate Dawg

    February 24, 2016 at 3:36 am

    @Sophist: Nevada caucuses are fairly open, and they had large number of new “pre-registrations.” I am assuming that the amazingly large share of self-identified “moderates” at the Republican caucus include a fairly big chunk of actual real moderates.

    Again, I also laid out policy positions that appeal to moderates.

    I think the hand-waving, ear-plugging about Trump’s appeal to moderates is dangerous. Obama won moderates. We need to win them again.

    I welcome the full-brunt of the Clinton smear machine being aimed right at the combover itself.

    Bernie isn’t cut out for this job, but I do think Hillary can take the orangutan down. That said, she needs to cover her LEFT FLANK.

  192. 192.

    NR

    February 24, 2016 at 3:41 am

    @gwangung: Thing is, boosting Hispanic turnout doesn’t do much. Check out the 538 website. It runs up the Dems popular margin, but has very little effect on the electoral vote. All it accomplishes is to get PA back. That’s important for sure, but leaves the Dems sitting at only 294 EVs. Even if they vote 90% Dem it doesn’t change much. Put Hispanics at 80% Dem and boost black turnout by 10% (probably impossible with Obama not running), and the electoral vote still doesn’t change.

    If Trump runs up the score among non college-educated whites, it’s big trouble for the Dems. The problem is that so much of the minority vote is concentrated in non-competitive states. I think there are probably only about 25-30% of non college-educated whites who will vote Dem no matter what. Obama won 36% of them in 2012, but that was because he successfully portrayed Romney as out of touch (with a lot of help from Romney). To beat Trump, I think the Dems will have to portray him not as embarrassing or crazy, but as a Romney-style fraud. That would probably make a lot of non college-educated whites stay home. But it’s easier said than done.

  193. 193.

    NR

    February 24, 2016 at 3:47 am

    @Nate Dawg:

    That said, the Democratic BASE is Latino’s and African-Americans. Look at 538. We should be placing ALL our eggs in those baskets.

    Mess with the sliders at the 538 site, and you’ll see that the best we can manage with that strategy is a narrow victory.

    We either have to prevent Trump from running up the score with non college-educated whites, or win a bigger share of the college-educated white vote. If we can’t do either of those things, the best-case scenario for us is that the election sits on a razor’s edge in a couple of states.

  194. 194.

    Nate Dawg

    February 24, 2016 at 3:47 am

    @NR: The problem with Hillary portraying Trump as a fraud is the shoe doesn’t quite fit.

    They are both enormously wealthy, elites. That much is true. Trump is like the working-man’s billionaire. He didn’t go to Yale (just Wharton). He didn’t become a Senator. He just won. He can barely string together a sentence with more than three words. But that’s appealing.

    He is who *they* would be if *they* were successful, whereas she is is an authority figure they disdain for her smarmy condescension.

    Trump will make hay out of Goldman Sachs and getting 300,000 (or whatever) for giving a speech. He made his money in construction! That’s honest work! Not giving speeches to billionaires and taking bribes.

    He’s gonna go full bore on Hillary, and she’s actually quite vulnerable to this attack among non-college-educated whites.

    Don’t forget the know-nothing George Bush winning. Remember how everyone wanted to have beers with him and not the technocrat Al Gore. It’s going to be that dynamic all over again.

  195. 195.

    Nate Dawg

    February 24, 2016 at 3:50 am

    @NR: Damn, you’re right.

    Well, back to the original point: she better start protecting her left flank, because he’s gonna swift boat her on NAFTA and free-trade and CHI-nah.

    (Does anyone else hate the way he says “China”? I make fun of it with my husband in conversation.)

  196. 196.

    Aleta

    February 24, 2016 at 3:59 am

    What has Trump said about prescription drug costs? That’s going to matter despite opinions about repealing the ACA. And I think HRC (with Bill C and O campaigning) can convince more voters that Trump will mess up health care. That’s one area where people can be convinced to fear change. His racism will inspire turnout to oppose him, again helped by O and Bill campaigning. I think the fear of losing ground against racism will bring out a strong D vote. He’s not appealing to women, and there may be a backlash against the increasing loss of reproductive rights. THE NRA is still a very tough, but opposition is getting more inspired. Republicans have depended on very strong organization to win close votes in key states, but Trump has been pretty mean to everyone so far. He’s not a team player, so I wonder if he’ll get enough R loyalty state to state. It’s still so easy to incite sexism and trigger HRC’s vulnerabilities, though, so I’m worried as well. If Bloomberg was serious about entering, then that’s another bucket of fish.

  197. 197.

    superpredators4hillary

    February 24, 2016 at 4:08 am

    @Nate Dawg:

    Not nominating Sanders is a good start to that end.

    That’s where you lost me.

    “She lies so much. Everything she says is a lie. I’ve never seen someone who lies so much in my life. Let me tell you three lies she’s told. She made up a story about how she was ducking sniper fire! There was no sniper fire. She made it up! How do you forget a thing like that? She said she was named after Sir Edmund Hillary, the guy who climbed Mount Everest. He hadn’t even climbed it when she was born! Total lie! She lied about the emails, of course, as we all know, and is probably going to be indicted. You know she said there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq! It was a lie! Thousands of American soldiers are dead because of her. Not only does she lie, her lies kill people. That’s four lies, I said I’d give you three. You can’t even count them. You want to go on PolitiFact, see how many lies she has? It takes you an hour to read them all! In fact, they ask her, she doesn’t even say she hasn’t lied. They asked her straight up, she says she usually tries to tell the truth! Ooooh, she tries! Come on! This is a person, every single word out of her mouth is a lie. Nobody trusts her. Check the polls, nobody trusts her. Yuge liar.”

    LINK

  198. 198.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    February 24, 2016 at 4:24 am

    @NR: Any thoughts on why working class whites favor Trump’s naked nativism instead of Sanders’s economic populism?

  199. 199.

    Aleta

    February 24, 2016 at 4:24 am

    @NR: Your scenario has the electoral college very close; can you explain where the differences are between your estimates vs the electoral votes in 2012 that went overwhelmingly to Obama?

  200. 200.

    BillinGlendaleCA

    February 24, 2016 at 4:30 am

    @Amir Khalid: Or as my step-daughter says: “He’s a clown”.

  201. 201.

    Kathleen

    February 24, 2016 at 4:39 am

    @SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel: I don’t think he’s always been a doom and gloomer, but I stopped reading him about a month ago. Plus many of his commenters get on my last nerve.

  202. 202.

    Major Major Major Major

    February 24, 2016 at 5:26 am

    @superpredators4hillary: Not recognizing the nym. Help me out: new troll, or bad memory?

  203. 203.

    Major Major Major Major

    February 24, 2016 at 5:31 am

    @superpredators4hillary: Just checked the archives. New troll! Yay! Unless I’m mistaken, in which case you’re just annoying. If that’s true: welcome aboard!

  204. 204.

    satby

    February 24, 2016 at 6:42 am

    Superpredators has commented before. I think the point was the link, which implied Nate Dawg might have written the linked article? I’m guessing

  205. 205.

    Applejinx

    February 24, 2016 at 6:49 am

    @Nate Dawg: This. Don’t make me vote in favor of war with Iran and in favor of the TPP. If Trump runs to the left of Clinton on Wall Street, hawkishness and TPP, especially if she lets him do that and doubles down/triangulates, it will be extremely horrible attempting to vote for her. I’d feel like a traitor, appeasing some of my friends at Balloon Juice but knowingly assenting to policy I think is ruinous.

    She CAN’T let him run to the left of her.

  206. 206.

    Applejinx

    February 24, 2016 at 7:03 am

    @David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: If you don’t study macroeconomics (which is a heck of a weird and tricky thing) then you’re going by what people in the media say: tax cuts make wealth and things are great, business is booming.

    If you believe that, then anyone pushing for trade deals is probably taking that money and spending it overseas/outsourcing, and anybody saying they’ll be protectionist and make US jobs is your friend. The more simply put, the better. In that light, Trump can register as an economic populist simply because he’s casting aspersions on current trade deals. The wall idea is also symbolic. Rather than open borders, it’s like he’s saying he will block anybody coming to ‘take jobs’. It’s not really relevant where the wall is, it’s the idea of building a wall and keeping the people out, keeping foreigners out, as if that would defend American workers.

    In fact Trump always gets stuff made in Mexico etc: if you want ‘made in USA’, Bernie tends to do that partly because he’s too stubborn to admit that globalization has made that a severe economic handicap. Everybody else including Trump bows to the reality of the situation, Bernie would rather lose than be a huge liar.

    But Trump can position himself as another economic populist using symbols like the wall, and the only reason it works is that all establishment candidates are committed to neocon/neoliberal globalization and will not turn against the policies that are, in fact, wiping out the lower and middle classes.

    And that is why working class whites are drawn to Trump and want to believe he is also offering economic populism. He makes suitable noises, they’re basically lies, but he is still running to the left of everybody who isn’t a protest vote and that shouldn’t be dismissed lightly. He can’t be allowed to run to the left on this, it’s political dynamite.

  207. 207.

    Joel

    February 24, 2016 at 7:06 am

    People need to stop talking about Trump’s ceiling. It’s not going to happen.

    Let’s talk about how we beat this motherfucker.

  208. 208.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    February 24, 2016 at 9:24 am

    @BillinGlendaleCA:

    That used to work for me, and then it didn’t any more. So, test:

    socialism
    Cory Booker
    penis
    shoes

  209. 209.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    February 24, 2016 at 9:35 am

    @NotMax:

    11 names on the ballot, though only 6 still running.

    In reality, 12 names on the ballot, though only 5 still running.

    In real reality, 11 names on the ballot, though only 5 still running. Take another look at the photo and count again.

  210. 210.

    cokane

    February 24, 2016 at 9:46 am

    Damn. It’s really going to be Trump. Haha, this is too awesome.

  211. 211.

    No One You Know

    February 24, 2016 at 11:20 am

    @sinnedbackwards: I have heard the waves calling, each to each.

  212. 212.

    NotMax

    February 24, 2016 at 11:44 am

    @SiubhanDuinne

    What picture?

    Trump, Donald John, Sr.
    Rubio, Marco A. 17,940
    Cruz, Rafael Edward “Ted”
    Carson, Benjamin Solomon “Ben”, Sr.
    Kasich, John Richard
    Paul, Randal H. “Rand”
    Bush, John Ellis “Jeb”
    Christie, Christopher James “Chris”
    Fiorina, Carleton Sneed “Carly”
    Huckabee, Michael Dale “Mike”
    Santorum, Richard John “Rick”
    Gilmore, James Stuart “Jim”, III

    No matter how one shuffles the list, it still comes to 12.

  213. 213.

    NobodySpecial

    February 24, 2016 at 12:05 pm

    @NR:

    Thing is, boosting Hispanic turnout doesn’t do much. Check out the 538 website. It runs up the Dems popular margin, but has very little effect on the electoral vote. All it accomplishes is to get PA back. That’s important for sure, but leaves the Dems sitting at only 294 EVs. Even if they vote 90% Dem it doesn’t change much. Put Hispanics at 80% Dem and boost black turnout by 10% (probably impossible with Obama not running), and the electoral vote still doesn’t change.

    1) 294 is a win. Just saying.

    2) I went there, changed nothing else, and boosted non-college degree white turnout to 100%, at the same ratio.

    Guess what? It doesn’t move the needle enough to give the GOP the White House. And you know something REALLY funny? Non-college white votes have decreased as a share of the electorate from 64% in 1980 to 55% in 2012. And you’re seriously peddling the idea that Trump is going to get a bigger share of that demographic to turn out than Ronald Reagan did?

    I’ve read better bullshit, but it usually costs around $8.99 at Barnes and Noble.

  214. 214.

    gex

    February 24, 2016 at 12:14 pm

    @NotMax: What picture? The picture in this post that shows the actual ballot people were given last night. It lists 11.

  215. 215.

    Steeplejack

    February 24, 2016 at 12:21 pm

    @NotMax:

    What gex said. You probably can’t see the photograph that appears just above Julia L. Ritchey’s tweet because, if I remember correctly, you block a lot of bits and pieces on this site.

  216. 216.

    Grace

    February 24, 2016 at 12:36 pm

    @superpredators4hillary: Honestly, if you read one of his rants about Ted Cruz and his lying, all of this sounds perfectly in line with what he’d pull with Hillary. And unfortunately, it wouldn’t be hard at all for him to sell this since there is more than a kernel of basis for it.

  217. 217.

    NR

    February 24, 2016 at 2:53 pm

    @NobodySpecial: On the other hand, if Trump gets 70% of the non college-educated white vote even with them turning out at just 57% like 2012, he wins with 282 EVS if nothing else changes. Even if you boost Hispanic turnout to crazy high levels Trump still wins unless they swing more D. Which they might do, but again, this is all assuming non college-educated whites turn out at 2012 levels. Looking at the Republican primary turnout so far, I don’t think that’s a good bet.

    And this isn’t even getting into the likelihood that black turnout is likely to drop since Obama won’t be running.

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