Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

Come on, man.

He really is that stupid.

Nancy smash is sick of your bullshit.

You come for women, you’re gonna get your ass kicked.

We’ll be taking my thoughts and prayers to the ballot box.

The revolution will be supervised.

This really is a full service blog.

The GOP couldn’t organize an orgy in a whorehouse with a fist full of 50s.

rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius

The most dangerous place for a black man in America is in a white man’s imagination.

It’s all just conspiracy shit beamed down from the mothership.

Consistently wrong since 2002

Democrats have delivered the Square Deal, the New Deal, the Fair Deal, and now… the Big Joe Biden Deal.

It’s a doggy dog world.

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

Republican speaker of the house Mike Johnson: the bland and smiling face of evil.

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

Within six months Twitter will be fully self-driving.

Every one of the “Roberts Six” lied to get on the court.

Impressively dumb. Congratulations.

The poor and middle-class pay taxes, the rich pay accountants, the wealthy pay politicians.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

You are here: Home / Politics / Politicans / Cruz-ifiction / Long Late Night Open Thread: The GOP Caucus in Nevada, Now in Process

Long Late Night Open Thread: The GOP Caucus in Nevada, Now in Process

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(Deservedly) harsh things were said about the less-than-optimum Democratic caucus in Nevada, but it seems like the Repubs are determined wipe out all memories of last weekend through sheer force of inepiptitude/venality…


Reader Interactions

217Comments

  1. 1.

    Trentrunner

    I just realized I didn’t note when Fiorina bowed out. When did that happen? How did I miss those 60 seconds of schadenfreude?

    Not with a bang, but a whimper, apparently.

  9. 9.

    Anne Laurie

    @Anoniminous: Saw that, but I’m not sure it won’t turn out to be anti-Trump ratfvckers/protestors — could be Dems, could be other Repubs. (Wouldn’t surprise me if they were disgruntled Rand supporters, like the guys in robot costumes following Rubio.) Same threads I saw Rep. Ford’s tweet had pro-Trump tweeters saying the hands holding those signs looked surprisingly dark for Klan supporters…

  11. 11.

    PhoenixRising

    Okay, I’m going to bed, exit laughing.

    A troubling portion of NV GOP volunteers don’t know how to tally. Literally, grouping your hash marks into 5 so that you can quickly count by 5 and check your addition is apparently no longer taught in the 4th grade and they are going to make so many mistakes that Cruzers will never be able to stop talking about the theft of the election in Nevada.

    Popcorn. Mmm.

  20. 20.

    PeakVT

    But its always the Democrats who are in disarray, not Republicans, because alliteration = logic to our shitty media.

  23. 23.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Bill E Pilgrim: My dad is still alive (and married to my mom) and none of us has been to Denmark. My dad’s sister has, but I don’t think that is particularly germane.

  29. 29.

    ChrisH

    I’m coming around to the idea that if the Senate refuses to even hold hearings on Obama’s SCOTUS nominee, Obama, after two or three months should say “Okay, the Senate didn’t vote you down so you’re a Supreme Court Justice now”

    After all, the constitution says the Senate shall “Advise and Consent” to the President’s nominations and according to most Republican lawmakers, “She didn’t say no” totally counts.

  31. 31.

    PhoenixRising

    @Nate Dawg: But for the precedent set by Mussolini, this would be hilarious.

    I thought I was going to enjoy the GOP collapsing, but I’m finding it troubling instead.

    (I’m not so sure it’s funny anymore. Trump/Clinton in the fall means we are 1 nutball away from President Donald.)

  35. 35.

    sinnedbackwards

    When Trump wins AND it is discovered that a bunch of the electoral workers were openly wearing his paraphernalia, they will deserve all of it. Incompetence IS a double-edged banana.

    Plus also too Yertle. The signs are with us, work your butts off dudes! We CAN save this country.

  36. 36.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Anya: “in the good old days, that guy would’ve been carried out on a stretcher”

    There’s some scary shit there. I’ve seen a couple of people say we’re whistling past the graveyard on Trump. I absolutely am. I hope Obama’s faith in the American electorate, or his own coalition, bears out.

  39. 39.

    Nate Dawg

    Yes absolutely. Very disturbing. I don’t think he’s as likely to lose as Dems seem to think. But even still, the Fascist wing of the GOP is taking over. That’s scary shit.

  44. 44.

    MomSense

    Sweet constitution inspiring Jesus, but I do believe Republican nominee Trump is exactly the kind of nightmare scenario the founders had in mind when they created the electoral college.

  45. 45.

    Alex

    So… Trump is driving the high GOP turnout, right?

    As in… Republicans are really excited to vote for Trump?

  52. 52.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    @Omnes Omnibus: Uhm – okay I can’t tell you how many ways I’m lost with that particular question. It’s not you, it’s me. I’m aware of who the first name refers to, in a sort of can’t-help-it-sense, though not really with her music. The other, zip.

    Oh wait. I had a friend who liked someone named Brandy, did she do a song by him? Or is that someone else? Also how any of this fits — extraordinarily cleverly, I have no doubt — with the other things we’re discussing has gone whoosh right over my head.

    I’m like someone from another planet or century in some things, sorry.

  55. 55.

    Suzanne

    @SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel: I love that everyone on this here blog got the reference. It’s nice knowing smart, literate people, even if only through the series of toobz.

    Of course, then I quoted Spaceballs. Eliot and Spaceballs in the same thread.

    I will have you all know that this is how my mind works.

  58. 58.

    Suzanne

    Jesus, what rock are some of y’all living under where T. Swift can’t find you?!

    I mean, I’m sort of jealous of that rock. She is on the radio constantly. Even more than Adele. Has been for at least three years. She is every-damn-where.

  59. 59.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Bill E Pilgrim: Ryan Adams is an alt-country artist (with a short temper who used to lose his temper when concert-goers would call out for the Bryan Adams’ song “Summer of ’69” – so of course they would). He recently recorded Swift’s album “1989” song for song. Example: Swift, Adams.

  60. 60.

    Anoniminous

    CNN has released an exit poll with a 10% MOE. We’re talking the reliability of using sheep’s livers and the flight of birds.

  66. 66.

    Suzanne

    I’m getting to the point with this Trump thing that if it’s gonna happen, I might as well just lie back and enjoy it. I mean, it’s fucking batshit. I might as well be entertained as the apocalypse approaches.

  68. 68.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Suzanne: The station I mostly listen to won’t play Taylor Swift, but they’ll play Ryan Adams’ terrible covers of Taylor Swift. And they’ll play Adele, so there’s some kind of fine dividing line there.

    The stations my daughter demands to listen to in the car are about 50% Taylor Swift by weight.

  69. 69.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    @Suzanne: Just a cable cutter from before there were cables. Practically.
    I’m no slouch in consuming media, but it’s all online, which means I never heard or see anything without selecting it specifically.

    Also living out of the country for more than a decade until fairly recently probably contributed.

  70. 70.

    Suzanne

    @Amir Khalid: I love Ryan Adams, but Bryan Adams is way hotter. And “Summer of ’69” is a great fucking cheesy song and I will cut anyone who disagrees with me.

  72. 72.

    Anya

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: This shit scares me too. I always thought things we hear from his rallies and interviews and the rest of the GOP are stuff we left behind in the 60s. Now it’s all out in the open.

    I never care about bunch of assholes wearing bed sheets. They’re so 1865. These guys are not a thread to anyone by themselves. Instead they’re a shield people us to point out to unacceptable racism while Trump’s bigotry is becoming normal.

  73. 73.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Suzanne: If, as I expect, Clinton is the D nominee, she will laugh at him. It is the one thing he can’t stand. Watch the Nerd Prom where Obama eviscerated him. I expect that Clinton has already hired the writers from that speech.

  75. 75.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    @Omnes Omnibus: Ah. I’m saying ah mainly because you made me realize that Bryan Adams is who wrote the song that this singer Brandy did. This was a friend in France who used to play her songs when I came over, she was a big fan of anything American and of that style. Brandy is Snoop Dog’s sister.

  76. 76.

    Nate Dawg

    @oldgold: Yes, and I’ve already seen Trumpeters claiming this means he’ll win the Latino vote in the general. Let’s let them think that.

  77. 77.

    Suzanne

    @Omnes Omnibus: Graydon Carter says that Trump is STILL bitter about the “short-fingered vulgarian” comment. From thirty years ago.

    I almost have to admire someone who can hold on to a grudge that long.

  80. 80.

    Nate Dawg

    Really though, what do you do with a state where the people who live there don’t even know how to pronounce its name?

    Neva(h)da should be relegated to Super Tuesday and some other, less shitty, state should take its place.

  82. 82.

    hamletta

    @Omnes Omnibus: That’s what some GOP strategist, Steve something-or-other, was saying in a clip on MSNBC. “Why aren’t these guys getting to him? It’s so easy to get inside his head!”

  84. 84.

    Anya

    @Omnes Omnibus: I wish you’re right. I am so scared that idiots on the D side will vote for him when he triangulates on gun control, reproductive rights and he’s more dovish on foreign policy than HRC. And of course he’ll still have the MSM on his side.

  85. 85.

    Nate Dawg

    Drugde has a small, simple headline.

    “The Nominee”

    (Spoiler: It’s not a latino Republican candidate).

  87. 87.

    Suzanne

    @Omnes Omnibus: And I hope she does. I welcome some Molly Ivins-style verbal shivving from our Hillz.

    The barely mitigated passive-aggressive nastiness is one of the things I am looking forward to as I get old. It’s absolutely charming in women of a certain age.

  88. 88.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    Question for those of you who are more familiar with the lefty blogosphere than I am:

    Has BooMan always been such a bleak pessimist? I’ve been reading him pretty regularly for maybe a year or a little more. Recently he is such an Eeyore I can scarcely bear to read his posts. I know his brother died a few months ago, so I’m cutting him a lot of emotional slack, but I don’t think I can take the incessant doom-and-gloom much longer.

  89. 89.

    Tripod

    GOP’s generation Boomer is going out like a bunch of cry babies, and Trump is their shitty cover band version of the Gipper.

  91. 91.

    RaflW

    @oldgold: OTOH, I saw that about 5,000 or 6,000 Hispanics estimated to have attended the GOP caucus, and 16,000 the Dem one. So one should only take from that a certain frisson of self-hate among Republican Hispanics.

  94. 94.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Anya: This country elected a Black dude with a funny name and weird ears twice..

    Also, low info voters won’t vote for a laughingstock. Make him the joke that he actually is and he is toast.

  95. 95.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    @Suzanne:

    I read that Graydon Carter piece a few weeks ago. My favourite bit was the revelation that every time a picture of Trump is in a magazine, he tears out the page, circles his fingers with a gold Sharpie, scrawls “Long fingers!!” on the page, and sends it to Carter.

    LOL at the gold Sharpie.

  97. 97.

    MomSense

    @SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel:

    You know Davis x Machina’s purer than you always persona? Well the real thing took over the comments section a few years ago and it is tiring. Our man in Portland is a regular there and fits in. I read Boo every day but rarely comment now. He is also editing Washington Monthly.

  101. 101.

    pseudonymous in nc

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Make him the joke that he actually is and he is toast.

    Given how thin-skinned he is, and how obviously he has a glass jaw, it’s going to be funny to see him be uneasily embraced by the establishment GOP then slapped silly by the Dem nominee.

    He’s not as rich as he says he is, he’s a shitty businessman, and if his creditors called in their markers he’d be fucking panhandling before next Tuesday. He’s a WWE fiction who broke the fourth wall.

  102. 102.

    BR

    @SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel:

    Has BooMan always been such a bleak pessimist? I’ve been reading him pretty regularly for maybe a year or a little more. Recently he is such an Eeyore I can scarcely bear to read his posts. I know his brother died a few months ago, so I’m cutting him a lot of emotional slack, but I don’t think I can take the incessant doom-and-gloom much longer.

    Actually I don’t think he’s being pessimistic. I think he’s being realistic — his track record is pretty good in terms of calling things correctly. I’ve been reading him lately and find his take on things better than anyone else out there.

  103. 103.

    Anya

    @Omnes Omnibus: That black dude with a funny name was exteremly impressive, diciplined, very smart, inspirational and a great campaigner. Also, the country was demoralized from the W years. HRC is a terrible campaigner and her people are terrible. And the country is economically not in a dire situation.

    I agree with you that Trump is a clown but the media doesn’t treat him the way he deserves. And I am not sure Hillary is skilled enough to exploit that weakness.

  104. 104.

    cckids

    @Suzanne:

    She is every-damn-where.

    This. So, so much this.

    And all her songs are unendingly ear-wormy. They will stay with you for-fucking-ever.

  105. 105.

    Splitting Image

    @SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel:

    Has BooMan always been such a bleak pessimist? I’ve been reading him pretty regularly for maybe a year or a little more. Recently he is such an Eeyore I can scarcely bear to read his posts. I know his brother died a few months ago, so I’m cutting him a lot of emotional slack, but I don’t think I can take the incessant doom-and-gloom much longer.

    He was actually pretty optimistic about the Democrats’ chances in 2014. He was one of the only writers who thought turnout would be high enough to save the Senate. The pessimism is a recent development, possibly resulting from being as wrong as he was that cycle.

  106. 106.

    RaflW

    OT, but how is it that Ann Coulter hasn’t starved to death or had an anorexia-induced heart attack yet?

    (Not totally OT, since what made me think of it was seeing an RT of one of her typically ultra-nasty, racist garbage tweets about Rubio re: Nevada results).

  107. 107.

    piratedan

    find it enlightening that the party of so-called fiscal responsibility and personal accountability is about to nominate a man who has never run for public office in any capacity, has declared bankruptcy multiple times because he couldn’t make enough profit from running a casino(s) to be their standard-bearer. His main platform appears to be, build a wall between the US and Mexico and deport a bunch of illegals, if he can find them and “make America great again” simply by electing him. Somehow, someway, the US media will fluff this guy into taking those flaws and making them somehow palatable in comparison to whoever wins the Dem nomination. Then if they succeed in bringing off this abomination, they’ll sit back and watch the ratings roll in as this abomination unfolds

  108. 108.

    CaseyL

    Remember when people were saying Trump’s supporters went to his rallies but wouldn’t turn out to vote?

    Record-breaking turnout, and it’s all for him.

    The sheer enthusiasm for Trump is shocking.

    It’s wonderful to think of the GOP in panic mode, but more turnouts like this and I might join them.

  110. 110.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    I’ll leave with this two cents: If Donald Trump is the nominee, which is looking increasingly likely, the Republicans are going to be demolished in November, not just the Presidency but down-ticket also. Democrats could take the House back. That’s what the GOP is so openly freaking about.

    I wrote a comment yesterday or something comparing it to what happened in France in 2002, won’t go into all the details again but it was a similar scare, but what everyone who heard “OMG the extreme right wing candidate came in second” didn’t necessarily hear was that the right winger lost the election by worse than 80% to 20%.

    That sort of thing rallies people. The right winger got the right stirred up over there also, just like Trump does, but that’s not enough to win. And it’s possibly enough to lose 80/20, or 70/30. Even 60/40 could bring Congress with it.

  111. 111.

    cckids

    @oldgold:

    Trump won the Republican Hispanic vote in Nevada. SMFH.

    Well, according to Trump, he got 46% of the Hispanic vote.

    The Republican Hispanic vote.

    The has-time-for-caucusing Republican Hispanic vote.

    That could be a vanishingly small number.

  115. 115.

    BillinGlendaleCA

    In another edition of “small world”: I mentioned to the wife that there’s only one US District Judge who’s Korean-American(there’s also a judge on the ninth circuit that’s Korean-American), Judge Koh. She tells me she know this and her friend is the Judge’s aunt.

  116. 116.

    FlipYrWhig

    @MomSense: The Booman comment section is like a Bob Avakian rally. It skews preachy, smug, and self-contented, and it doesn’t seem to be shtick — it’s all painfully earnest.

  117. 117.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Anya:

    HRC is a terrible campaigner and her people are terrible.

    Well, if that is your view, then panic away. I am actually getting tired of pointing out that HRC’s campaign seems to be the one that is modeling itself closest to the 2008 Obama campaign.

    She fought a tough fight with the best politician since FDR. She was able to stand toe to toe with Obama. She can’t beat someone from the clown car? Come the fuck on.

  118. 118.

    gwangung

    That sort of thing rallies people.

    Like….Latinos?

    Good chance that this sleeping giant will awaken,,,and you bet you’re bippy African Americans will out against Trump. I think another one or two China jibes will get the Asian American electorate going.

    Whites ARE the largest ethnic group in this country….but POCs have some muscle now, too. And if there’s one candidate who’d unite POCs, it’d be Trump…..

    The Republican electorate looks grim to us liberals….but we’re not without resources of our own.

  119. 119.

    cckids

    @Suzanne: I might agree if the grudge was for something, you know, real. But doing it because Carter quoted someone else printing the “short fingered” thing? He (Carter) said that 1-2 times a year Trump will STILL send him a photo of himself with his hand circled, asserting that they are “normal sized”.

    That’s beyond grudge territory into being a psychotic douchecanoe.

  122. 122.

    gwangung

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    I am actually getting tired of pointing out that HRC’s campaign seems to be the one that is modeling itself closest to the 2008 Obama campaign.

    So, what other evidence is there that she’s a terrible campaigner (as opposed to merely competent)? Don’t point to 2012 now….that’s hardly over yet.

  126. 126.

    pseudonymous in nc

    @CaseyL:

    Record-breaking turnout, and it’s all for him.

    Wayne Newton took the night off, I assume.

    If Trump represents the dead-cat bounce of white American fuck-em-all bigotry, combined with some weird masochistic desire among white liberals to stay at home and not put in the hours they did for Obama in ’08 and ’12, then perhaps there’s nothing to be done about it other than to check your eligibility for Canadian residency and put your money in Chinese stocks.

  129. 129.

    Anya

    I am not clean on this but I’ve read on the twitter machine thst only 8% of the Nevada caucus-goers were hispanic. I think this is the first good news of the day.

  130. 130.

    Mike J

    @Suzanne:

    And “Summer of ’69” is a great fucking cheesy song and I will cut anyone who disagrees with me.

    I worked at a top40 station when that horrible Robin Hood song came out. I would be happy to never hear it again.

    There were other songs I played just as much, if not more, but that one stands out for its awfulness and it seemed like it came up up at least twice a shift.

  131. 131.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    @Amir Khalid:

    Here’s an ancient joke on the subject: Four scholars at Oxford were making their way down the street, and happened to see a group of ladies of the evening. “What’s this?” said the first. “A jam of tarts?” “Nay,” said the second, “an essay of Trollope’s.” “Rather, a flourish of strumpets,” advanced the third. “No, gentlemen,” concluded the last. “Here we have an anthology of pros.”

    (From WorldWideWords.org)

  133. 133.

    pseudonymous in nc

    It is possible to think that Hillary has certain Martha Coakley characteristics, that her inner circle has certain toxic characteristics, that the way she fought the ’08 rear-guard was not great, that There Is Drama.

    But, there are lots of Obama campaign people who are now unreserved Hillary campaign people. There are lots of Obama campaign people who may have reservations about Hillary but are not going to let El Trumpador triumph on account of them sitting on their hands.

  137. 137.

    Thoroughly Pizzled

    @Anya: Maybe a few white people, but I’d expect blacks and Hispanics to turn out in multitudes to stop Trump.

  138. 138.

    sukabi

    @Bill E Pilgrim: yes, her legs were kicking on the table, while the electorate were yelling hold her down, we’ve got to harvest her brainzzz… campaign aborted successfully.

  142. 142.

    Anya

    I always notice here that people get angry and snippy whenever you voice an opinion different from theirs? Sometimes, you can be in a bad place when you consume so much negative media. That’s where I am at right now, so I am going to take my cautiously pesimistic opinion out of here before I get more condescending replies.

  143. 143.

    Fair Economist

    @MomSense:

    You know Davis x Machina’s purer than you always persona? Well the real thing took over the comments [at the Booman Tribune] section a few years ago and it is tirin

    I think Davis x Machina’s purity pony parody was invented to mock the real thing over at Booman. It’s always been kind of that way though. Back in the mid-00’s it was one of numerous refugee blogs for those who were banned from DKos for being too liberal (weird concept, given that the DKos comments are mobbed with BernieBros but there was a time when pragmatists ruled at DKos, albeit always with a lot of dissent). Almost all the other refugee blogs are dead now.

  150. 150.

    Fair Economist

    @amk: Nevada is strictly proportional for the GoP, unlike South Carolina where the “proportional” delegate rules turned out to be winner-take-all.

  154. 154.

    Anya

    @Omnes Omnibus: It’s not your fault that I am in such a depressing mood about our election, media and the voters. Having said that, sometimes, it’s better to reason with people than treating them like an annoyance.

  155. 155.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Suzanne: You can buy them in three packs at the grocery store. I have one, it came with a silver and a bronze one. I needed the silver one for a project.

  156. 156.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Thoroughly Pizzled:

    Maybe a few white people, but I’d expect blacks and Hispanics to turn out in multitudes to stop Trump.

    Even if there are angry white open-carry guys parading around near the polling place? I expect some of that.

  157. 157.

    gwangung

    @Anya: Honestly, it is time to be determined. It is not a slam dunk election…for EITHER side.

    Just remember, there are resources for the Dem side of the equation (about a third of the country). And what needs to be done there is to fight voter suppression (maybe, borrow techniques from the black churches for the Latino and Asian American churches)….

  161. 161.

    GregB

    Trump says “we’re gonna grab, grab, grab….”

    Hopefully he doesn’t begin with the Sudetenland

  162. 162.

    piratedan

    @GregB: well, @GregB: British Columbia was originally part of our natural expansion plan that would allow us to connect Alaska with the rest of the country, as it should be….

  163. 163.

    Aleta

    This might sound jokey but I half believe that if Trump could bring himself to run with Schwarzenegger, he might win. Unless H could run with Clooney …because the star power thing is working.

  164. 164.

    Adam L Silverman

    @efgoldman: Sort of. The procedure is that the caucus ballots would be tallied, then that tally would be recorded on the outside of a large envelope in which the caucus ballots were enclosed and then sealed. A picture would be taken of the outside of the envelope with the recorded tally and texted to the appropriate electoral official for recording and what was written on the outside of the envelope in the texted picture was to be treated as the official tally.

    So not instagram, but they might as well have just used that.

  165. 165.

    BillinGlendaleCA

    @Aleta: The Governator is not eligible to run for President or Vice President being that isn’t a Natural Born citizen.

  166. 166.

    Nate Dawg

    Donald Trump is up to 47%.

    He’s can go toe-to-toe with every other candidate–combined.

    Next week will be a true sweep in the South (minus Texas).

    This is an Obama wave landslide for the GOP, and it may sweep Hillary under.

  167. 167.

    Nate Dawg

    Trump said during his speech:

    “We won among non-college educated people. I love non-college educated people. We are the most hard-working. The most loyal.”

    Chilling.

    As I said a few months ago (not that anyone but me remembers), Trump is going to attack Hillary from the left on Free Trade, Wall Street, Lobbying, and the whole Sanders shtick.

    He will make a play for Bernie voters, and get plenty of them.

  169. 169.

    Aleta

    @BillinGlendaleCA: Oh, for some reason was thinking that was just President. But of course. Well, he’d have to get Condi then. In truth it’s hard to see who he would be able to handle running with who would be willing to put up with him. A former Miss America? (Not serious)

  171. 171.

    Brachiator

    @piratedan: The people who vote for Trump know all this and don’t care. And which media is fluffing Trump? Has Trump received endorsements from any conservative newspaper? Fox News alternately runs from him and embraces him. Trump has dumped on the WSJ and the National Review, and still keeps winning votes. The “media” could run anti Trump stories 24/7 and I doubt that it would make any difference. The people would not magically wake up and disown him.

    Right now I’m not seeing that there is much insight into the rise of Trump, or how to stop him. The GOP is afraid of him, but what can they do if he keeps racking up victories? They better pray that Baby Rubio can win some victories and put some distance between himself and the Terrible Cruz. When are the Texas and Florida primaries? If Trump wins these, watch the GOP wet their pants big-time.

  172. 172.

    FlipYrWhig

    @Nate Dawg: Donald Trump winning non college educated REPUBLICANS means diddly shit about non college educated DEMOCRATS. He’s an obvious clown and bullshit artist. He’s not running “from the left” on anything. Settle down.

  173. 173.

    FlipYrWhig

    I still don’t see how Trump is any different from Palin. Brag, whip up idiots with idiocy, get free media, say nothing.

  174. 174.

    Amir Khalid

    @Nate Dawg:
    Donald Trump has well-known and exploitable vulnerabilities. People are aware of his vulgar manners, his bigotry, his lack of intellectual depth and his ignorance about how to govern. Those who will listen can be made aware of these shortcomings. There is hope to be found in these facts.

  175. 175.

    NotMax

    11 names on the ballot, though only 6 still running.

    In reality, 12 names on the ballot, though only 5 still running.

    Math is hard.

    Or the cocktails are strong.

  176. 176.

    Calouste

    The latest results indicate that Kasich, moderate John Kasich, is coming in fifth in a four-way race.

    And by the way, so much for the stories that Trump didn’t have a ground game in Nevada and would fail.

  177. 177.

    Ruckus

    @FlipYrWhig:
    Not defending tDump in any way but he’s not saying nothing. He’s also not saying anything a rational person wants to hear but what he is saying is exactly what a portion of the right side of the aisle wants to hear. They’ve been primed for it for a while and as many others have said before the shit is coming home to roost. They were holding their noses and voting for Romney or the last guy, the drunk you sit next to in a dark bar sipping piss water. That’s why they are supportive, someone is talking their language. I don’t think he has much crossover appeal but the nose holders in the Greasy Old Poop party will vote for him. I’m anticipating about the same level as they did for Romney.

    Of course I’m wrong far more often than right so……..

  179. 179.

    Nate Dawg

    @FlipYrWhig: He has already attacked Clinton from the left, and will continue to do so. He is harnessing anti-Globalization and anti-Free Trade sentiment.

    There are not enough Democrats to win the election. We need moderates. He is attacking our candidate from her left.

    Keep plugging your fingers in your ears, but this is another “change wave”, and we don’t have a change candidate. We are essentially putting up Romney against Obama and hoping for the sensible outcome.

    Also: please remember 1980. Reagan was a joke that was going to be squashed by Carter. Look how that turned out.

  180. 180.

    Nate Dawg

    @Amir Khalid: Sure, but….

    Let’s assume the following: hard-core Dems line up with Dem nominee. Hard-core Republicans line up with Republican nominee.

    Battle will be fought over moderates.

    Trump is *killing* among moderates: 56% of MODERATE REPUBLICANS voted for him. He won New Hampshire (a liberal Republican electorate).

    His positions on gay marriage, abortion, and other “hot button” social issues are rather moderate.

    His economic positions are a mix of economic populism (from the left), isolationism (left and right), and tax-cut goodness (right and left). These are winning positions.

    He has a clear message–something Hillary does not have.

  182. 182.

    NR

    You all are seriously underestimating Trump. He said it tonight: I love the uneducated. His campaign is all about appealing to non college-educated whites. And like it or not, that could be enough to get him in the White House.

    Head over to Nate Silver’s Swing-O-Matic. I increased turnout among non college-educated whites to 70%, and gave Trump 70% of their votes, 8% better than Romney did in 2012. I also increased (as a backlash against Trump) Hispanic turnout by 10% and gave the Dems 80% of their votes, and increased Asian/Other by 10% and gave the Dems 75% of their votes. I left the black vote and the college-educated white vote the same.

    The final numbers were:

    College-educated whites: 56%R, 44%D, 77% turnout
    Non college-educated whites: 70%R, 30%D, 70% turnout
    Blacks: 93%D, 7%R, 66% turnout
    Hispanic/Latino: 80%D, 20%R, 58% turnout
    Asian/Other: 75%D, 25%R, 59% turnout

    The result? The Dems win the popular vote 49.6% to 48.7%. But the kicker is, the Dems only win 274 electoral votes in that scenario, and those just barely. OH (R+4), IA (R+4), NH (R+3) WI (R+2), and PA (R+0.1) all flip. The Dems barely hold on to FL (D+2), MI (D+2), VA (D+1.8), and CO (D+2). The tipping point state? MN, at D+0.4. In that scenario, Trump would certainly contest the state and probably win it, and thus the presidency. Trump’s message on trade and immigration, and his focus on non college-educated whites, could put the entire Midwest except Illinois in danger.

    Now it’s certainly possible that the Dems could increase their vote share among college-educated whites. But it’s also possible that black turnout could drop since Obama won’t be on the ticket. The Dems can still win, but it’s far from the slam-dunk sure thing a lot of you seem to think it is. We underestimate Trump at our peril.

  183. 183.

    David M

    Let’s assume the following: hard-core Dems line up with Dem nominee. Hard-core Republicans line up with Republican nominee.

    Battle will be fought over moderates.

    Trump is *killing* among moderates: 56% of MODERATE REPUBLICANS voted for him. He won New Hampshire (a liberal Republican electorate).

    There’s potentially a pretty severe logic failure here. Republicans that vote in primaries aren’t in the group of “moderates” the general election candidates will be fighting over.

  184. 184.

    Sophist

    @Anne Laurie:

    Same threads I saw Rep. Ford’s tweet had pro-Trump tweeters saying the hands holding those signs looked surprisingly dark for Klan supporters…

    Rhett just forgot to wash his hands after the cross-burning…

  185. 185.

    Calouste

    @Nate Dawg: Well, if Sanders becomes the Democratic nominee, I’m 100% certain that if you leave voters the choice between two candidates who run away from the current president, they will pick the candidate that runs away the fastest. Far better to make it a pro vs anti Obama election, because in a mildly anti vs heavily anti election, heavily anti is going to win every single time.

  186. 186.

    Sophist

    @Nate Dawg:

    Trump is *killing* among moderates: 56% of MODERATE REPUBLICANS voted for him.

    “Moderates” and “Moderate Republicans” are not the same thing.

  188. 188.

    Seebach

    @Nate Dawg: Trump is absolutely dangerous. Can you really expect Americans to do the reasonable thing and not elect a reality TV star?

    Democrats have no reason to be smug and think this isn’t a huge danger. It’s a big, big danger.

  189. 189.

    gwangung

    @NR:

    The Dems can still win, but it’s far from the slam-dunk sure thing a lot of you seem to think it is.

    THis is pretty true. But this is going to depend on GOTV, particularly among POCs. Not sure if you can move the needle that much among Asians (Trump has only beaten up Asians once or twice), but African Americans do remember Trump’s origins as a discriminator against black tenants, and they’re not going to miss the racial animus from his supports….and any Latino backlash is going to be way over 10% increase (they seriously underperform, but they’re going to be seriously motivated by Trump).

  190. 190.

    Nate Dawg

    @NR: NR explained why I said what I said earlier.

    538’s swing-o-matic requires moving the non-educated white share by a mere 7% points to swing the election.

    Drive up turnout for them, and it can offset losses among college-educated whites. Drive down black turn-out, and we’re even more fucked.

    That said, the Democratic BASE is Latino’s and African-Americans. Look at 538. We should be placing ALL our eggs in those baskets.

    Not nominating Sanders is a good start to that end.

  191. 191.

    Nate Dawg

    @Sophist: Nevada caucuses are fairly open, and they had large number of new “pre-registrations.” I am assuming that the amazingly large share of self-identified “moderates” at the Republican caucus include a fairly big chunk of actual real moderates.

    Again, I also laid out policy positions that appeal to moderates.

    I think the hand-waving, ear-plugging about Trump’s appeal to moderates is dangerous. Obama won moderates. We need to win them again.

    I welcome the full-brunt of the Clinton smear machine being aimed right at the combover itself.

    Bernie isn’t cut out for this job, but I do think Hillary can take the orangutan down. That said, she needs to cover her LEFT FLANK.

  192. 192.

    NR

    @gwangung: Thing is, boosting Hispanic turnout doesn’t do much. Check out the 538 website. It runs up the Dems popular margin, but has very little effect on the electoral vote. All it accomplishes is to get PA back. That’s important for sure, but leaves the Dems sitting at only 294 EVs. Even if they vote 90% Dem it doesn’t change much. Put Hispanics at 80% Dem and boost black turnout by 10% (probably impossible with Obama not running), and the electoral vote still doesn’t change.

    If Trump runs up the score among non college-educated whites, it’s big trouble for the Dems. The problem is that so much of the minority vote is concentrated in non-competitive states. I think there are probably only about 25-30% of non college-educated whites who will vote Dem no matter what. Obama won 36% of them in 2012, but that was because he successfully portrayed Romney as out of touch (with a lot of help from Romney). To beat Trump, I think the Dems will have to portray him not as embarrassing or crazy, but as a Romney-style fraud. That would probably make a lot of non college-educated whites stay home. But it’s easier said than done.

  193. 193.

    NR

    @Nate Dawg:

    That said, the Democratic BASE is Latino’s and African-Americans. Look at 538. We should be placing ALL our eggs in those baskets.

    Mess with the sliders at the 538 site, and you’ll see that the best we can manage with that strategy is a narrow victory.

    We either have to prevent Trump from running up the score with non college-educated whites, or win a bigger share of the college-educated white vote. If we can’t do either of those things, the best-case scenario for us is that the election sits on a razor’s edge in a couple of states.

  194. 194.

    Nate Dawg

    @NR: The problem with Hillary portraying Trump as a fraud is the shoe doesn’t quite fit.

    They are both enormously wealthy, elites. That much is true. Trump is like the working-man’s billionaire. He didn’t go to Yale (just Wharton). He didn’t become a Senator. He just won. He can barely string together a sentence with more than three words. But that’s appealing.

    He is who *they* would be if *they* were successful, whereas she is is an authority figure they disdain for her smarmy condescension.

    Trump will make hay out of Goldman Sachs and getting 300,000 (or whatever) for giving a speech. He made his money in construction! That’s honest work! Not giving speeches to billionaires and taking bribes.

    He’s gonna go full bore on Hillary, and she’s actually quite vulnerable to this attack among non-college-educated whites.

    Don’t forget the know-nothing George Bush winning. Remember how everyone wanted to have beers with him and not the technocrat Al Gore. It’s going to be that dynamic all over again.

  195. 195.

    Nate Dawg

    @NR: Damn, you’re right.

    Well, back to the original point: she better start protecting her left flank, because he’s gonna swift boat her on NAFTA and free-trade and CHI-nah.

    (Does anyone else hate the way he says “China”? I make fun of it with my husband in conversation.)

  196. 196.

    Aleta

    What has Trump said about prescription drug costs? That’s going to matter despite opinions about repealing the ACA. And I think HRC (with Bill C and O campaigning) can convince more voters that Trump will mess up health care. That’s one area where people can be convinced to fear change. His racism will inspire turnout to oppose him, again helped by O and Bill campaigning. I think the fear of losing ground against racism will bring out a strong D vote. He’s not appealing to women, and there may be a backlash against the increasing loss of reproductive rights. THE NRA is still a very tough, but opposition is getting more inspired. Republicans have depended on very strong organization to win close votes in key states, but Trump has been pretty mean to everyone so far. He’s not a team player, so I wonder if he’ll get enough R loyalty state to state. It’s still so easy to incite sexism and trigger HRC’s vulnerabilities, though, so I’m worried as well. If Bloomberg was serious about entering, then that’s another bucket of fish.

  197. 197.

    superpredators4hillary

    @Nate Dawg:

    Not nominating Sanders is a good start to that end.

    That’s where you lost me.

    “She lies so much. Everything she says is a lie. I’ve never seen someone who lies so much in my life. Let me tell you three lies she’s told. She made up a story about how she was ducking sniper fire! There was no sniper fire. She made it up! How do you forget a thing like that? She said she was named after Sir Edmund Hillary, the guy who climbed Mount Everest. He hadn’t even climbed it when she was born! Total lie! She lied about the emails, of course, as we all know, and is probably going to be indicted. You know she said there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq! It was a lie! Thousands of American soldiers are dead because of her. Not only does she lie, her lies kill people. That’s four lies, I said I’d give you three. You can’t even count them. You want to go on PolitiFact, see how many lies she has? It takes you an hour to read them all! In fact, they ask her, she doesn’t even say she hasn’t lied. They asked her straight up, she says she usually tries to tell the truth! Ooooh, she tries! Come on! This is a person, every single word out of her mouth is a lie. Nobody trusts her. Check the polls, nobody trusts her. Yuge liar.”

    LINK

  198. 198.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    @NR: Any thoughts on why working class whites favor Trump’s naked nativism instead of Sanders’s economic populism?

  199. 199.

    Aleta

    @NR: Your scenario has the electoral college very close; can you explain where the differences are between your estimates vs the electoral votes in 2012 that went overwhelmingly to Obama?

  204. 204.

    satby

    Superpredators has commented before. I think the point was the link, which implied Nate Dawg might have written the linked article? I’m guessing

  205. 205.

    Applejinx

    @Nate Dawg: This. Don’t make me vote in favor of war with Iran and in favor of the TPP. If Trump runs to the left of Clinton on Wall Street, hawkishness and TPP, especially if she lets him do that and doubles down/triangulates, it will be extremely horrible attempting to vote for her. I’d feel like a traitor, appeasing some of my friends at Balloon Juice but knowingly assenting to policy I think is ruinous.

    She CAN’T let him run to the left of her.

  206. 206.

    Applejinx

    @David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: If you don’t study macroeconomics (which is a heck of a weird and tricky thing) then you’re going by what people in the media say: tax cuts make wealth and things are great, business is booming.

    If you believe that, then anyone pushing for trade deals is probably taking that money and spending it overseas/outsourcing, and anybody saying they’ll be protectionist and make US jobs is your friend. The more simply put, the better. In that light, Trump can register as an economic populist simply because he’s casting aspersions on current trade deals. The wall idea is also symbolic. Rather than open borders, it’s like he’s saying he will block anybody coming to ‘take jobs’. It’s not really relevant where the wall is, it’s the idea of building a wall and keeping the people out, keeping foreigners out, as if that would defend American workers.

    In fact Trump always gets stuff made in Mexico etc: if you want ‘made in USA’, Bernie tends to do that partly because he’s too stubborn to admit that globalization has made that a severe economic handicap. Everybody else including Trump bows to the reality of the situation, Bernie would rather lose than be a huge liar.

    But Trump can position himself as another economic populist using symbols like the wall, and the only reason it works is that all establishment candidates are committed to neocon/neoliberal globalization and will not turn against the policies that are, in fact, wiping out the lower and middle classes.

    And that is why working class whites are drawn to Trump and want to believe he is also offering economic populism. He makes suitable noises, they’re basically lies, but he is still running to the left of everybody who isn’t a protest vote and that shouldn’t be dismissed lightly. He can’t be allowed to run to the left on this, it’s political dynamite.

  207. 207.

    Joel

    People need to stop talking about Trump’s ceiling. It’s not going to happen.

    Let’s talk about how we beat this motherfucker.

  209. 209.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    @NotMax:

    11 names on the ballot, though only 6 still running.

    In reality, 12 names on the ballot, though only 5 still running.

    In real reality, 11 names on the ballot, though only 5 still running. Take another look at the photo and count again.

  212. 212.

    NotMax

    @SiubhanDuinne

    What picture?

    Trump, Donald John, Sr.
    Rubio, Marco A. 17,940
    Cruz, Rafael Edward “Ted”
    Carson, Benjamin Solomon “Ben”, Sr.
    Kasich, John Richard
    Paul, Randal H. “Rand”
    Bush, John Ellis “Jeb”
    Christie, Christopher James “Chris”
    Fiorina, Carleton Sneed “Carly”
    Huckabee, Michael Dale “Mike”
    Santorum, Richard John “Rick”
    Gilmore, James Stuart “Jim”, III

    No matter how one shuffles the list, it still comes to 12.

  213. 213.

    NobodySpecial

    @NR:

    Thing is, boosting Hispanic turnout doesn’t do much. Check out the 538 website. It runs up the Dems popular margin, but has very little effect on the electoral vote. All it accomplishes is to get PA back. That’s important for sure, but leaves the Dems sitting at only 294 EVs. Even if they vote 90% Dem it doesn’t change much. Put Hispanics at 80% Dem and boost black turnout by 10% (probably impossible with Obama not running), and the electoral vote still doesn’t change.

    1) 294 is a win. Just saying.

    2) I went there, changed nothing else, and boosted non-college degree white turnout to 100%, at the same ratio.

    Guess what? It doesn’t move the needle enough to give the GOP the White House. And you know something REALLY funny? Non-college white votes have decreased as a share of the electorate from 64% in 1980 to 55% in 2012. And you’re seriously peddling the idea that Trump is going to get a bigger share of that demographic to turn out than Ronald Reagan did?

    I’ve read better bullshit, but it usually costs around $8.99 at Barnes and Noble.

  215. 215.

    Steeplejack

    @NotMax:

    What gex said. You probably can’t see the photograph that appears just above Julia L. Ritchey’s tweet because, if I remember correctly, you block a lot of bits and pieces on this site.

  216. 216.

    Grace

    @superpredators4hillary: Honestly, if you read one of his rants about Ted Cruz and his lying, all of this sounds perfectly in line with what he’d pull with Hillary. And unfortunately, it wouldn’t be hard at all for him to sell this since there is more than a kernel of basis for it.

  217. 217.

    NR

    @NobodySpecial: On the other hand, if Trump gets 70% of the non college-educated white vote even with them turning out at just 57% like 2012, he wins with 282 EVS if nothing else changes. Even if you boost Hispanic turnout to crazy high levels Trump still wins unless they swing more D. Which they might do, but again, this is all assuming non college-educated whites turn out at 2012 levels. Looking at the Republican primary turnout so far, I don’t think that’s a good bet.

    And this isn’t even getting into the likelihood that black turnout is likely to drop since Obama won’t be running.

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