I admit it. I’m only posting this so I can use that title.
Mitt Romney did his blind pig act today, speaking truth, up to a point, to the looming power that is breaking the china at what should have been the dancing-horse-rider’s-husband’s party:
“If we Republicans choose Donald Trump as our nominee, the prospects for a safe and prosperous future are greatly diminished,” Romney said in a nationally televised speech at the University of Utah…
“Dishonesty is Donald Trump’s hallmark. He claimed that he had spoken clearly and boldly against going into Iraq. Wrong. He spoke in favor of invading Iraq. He said he saw thousands of Muslims in New Jersey celebrating 9/11. Wrong. He saw no such thing. He imagined it…He’s not of the temperament of the kind of stable, thoughtful person we need as leader. His imagination must not be married to real power”
“Mr. Trump has changed his positions, not just over the years, but over the course of the campaign, and on the Ku Klux Klan, daily for three days in a row. We will only know if he’s the real deal or a phony if he releases his tax returns and his tape of the interview with the New York Times. I predict there are more bomb shells in his tax returns,” Romney said. “I predict he told The New York Times that his immigration talk is just that, talk.”
[via TPM]
R-Money being who he is, the reason he gave for the urgency in stopping Trump was not for The Donald’s sin of describing Republican views and gut-feelings accurately, but because it would ensure a Clinton presidency — and that family is, of course, simply too gauche, too nouveau for true representatives of better-established dishonest money to accept.
But thanks anyway, [former] Governor! Plenty of good stuff there for ads in the fall.
Or, as the man said: please proceed.
Image: James Ward, Ferrets, undated, before 1860.
Shantanu Saha
If you do a global search and replace of “Donald Trump” with “any Republican candidate”, then the speech is 100% accurate.
Patricia Kayden
I miss Elon White since I am sure he would have addressed Trump supporters physically assaulting a Black woman at one of his Hitler Fests.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-supporters-push-young-black-woman-protesters-thrown-out-of-kentucky-louisville-rally-a6906836.html
dedc79
The hardest part about running Hillary’s ad campaign (and particularly her attack ads) will be prioritizing, given that there’s way more material than can actually be used.
Mai.naem.mobile
Okay this is the only time I can see agreeing with Mittens. I genuinely don’t understand why people don’t see in Trumpster what I see – a nasty little spiteful adolescent boy. Trump’s enemies’ list would Nixon’s list look like a weekly grocery shopping list.
Kyle
I thought Mitt was quite effective (minus the Clinton lies) and was long overdue. My conclusion: None of the several dozen folks that ran for the GOP nomination had/have courage to give it.
sinnedbackwards
It is not possible to turn a retirement account into $250 million unless you are a thief. Even buying Congress to bless the process with a veneer of legality does not lessen the culpability.
The man is a thief, just like Drumpf. Let them fall out. It is a little informative.
Bostonian
That’s the point where I turned it off. Bastard interrupted my on point show about cocktails for this crap?
RMoney didn’t give Drumpf any reason to talk about policy differences. He spent the whole time running down his character and then said ‘now watch him run down my character.’ The tin man has no sense of irony, no ability to see what a hypocrite he is.
Sorry, dipstick. You can’t attack Drumpf for being a fraud and a liar. You have to pick a difference between you.
pluky
Not sure why the ferrets, but like them anyway.
jl
Is this the Establishment GOP plan? Just trash talk Trump, or tell the truth about Trump, or a careful selection of truths that will be most effectively scare, admit that there is no particular alternative, and vote for whatever Establishment goof has the best chance of beating him in your state?
Sounds like panic that will lead to maximum GOP mess. I like it.I’m sure Trump will be outraged at not being treated fairly (in politics, as if any fool ‘fairly’ happens any more often in politics than in Trump’s line of business).
So Trump will start making noises about the GOP pledge allegiance again. I like the Establishment GOP plan even better.
jl
Heard a local news interview with a GOP hack who admitted that the speech seemed disappointingly nasty and dispiriting, which I also like.
MattF
Mitt’s error is to suppose that Trump’s fans care about the fate of the Republican Party. Hint: they don’t.
Anoniminous
Somebody needed to double check the speech processing centers of RomBot 2016, they seem to be disconnected from his cognitive processing module.
Amir Khalid
I’m wondering how the Donald will react to all this unwarranted hostility. It’s high time he came up with new ways to describe jealous little losers.
jl
@MattF: They just need to peel off enough GOP primary voters on the fence so Trump can’t claim he has majority of delegates before the convention for a popular mandate as the nominee. Mitt made a big enough (and IMHO hypocritical) deal about the horrid Trump bigotry, that I thought it was not aimed at the racist wing of Trump’s core supporters.
Roger Moore
What do you have against ferrets that you would put them in a post about the GOP?
hueyplong
Did the Rom-bot have occasion to comment on the dimensions of Trump’s hands, or has that line of attack been dropped from the playbook?
Tom Levenson
@pluky: Because reasons, that’s why.
Betty Cracker
This primary season has been such a nonstop shit-show that it’s hard to focus on individual acts sometimes. But let this sink in: Last year’s GOP nominee gave a speech today calling this year’s Republican frontrunner a con man, bully and liar. That’s kind of a big fucking deal. I cannot WAIT for that debate tonight.
Repatriated
@jl: This is the GOP Establishment trying to provoke Mr. Trump into making good on his threat to run third-party, in order to save their own down-ticket races. Having him rage-quit the nomination contest might be less destructive than replacing him in a contested convention. It also lets them target him with less collateral damage to the Party branding.
mdblanche
Um, Mitt? You’re not wrong, but you do know you did most of the same crud you’re calling the guy whose endorsement you accepted out for doIng, right?
Still, if anyone should know about bombshells in tax returns, it’s Mitt. I still think he didn’t want us to know he has a portrait of himself that ages locked in his attic that he’s claiming depreciation on.
Anoniminous
@Betty Cracker:
It’ll be YOOOGE
Kay
@Mai.naem.mobile:
I don’t know why they don’t see that he’s amazingly self-centered. It’s mental illness level. He talks about 1. himself or 2. what people are saying about him or 3. what people are doing that shows how much they love/hate him
There is no end to his self-regard. He can talk about himself all day every day for a year. He just finished doing that. They say he “never talks about policy” and that’s true but he talks a lot! All of it is about Trump.
pamelabrown53
@Mai.naem.mobile:
That’s the beauty of it. The Mittster himself just handed us a gold mine in his own words if he and the rest of the repub. establishment are unsuccessful in their attempts to take Trump down
Bill
The Republican base is in open revolt against the Republican establishment, and the establishment decides a speech by the Republican who lost the last presidential election is just what they need to stem the tide.
This is tantamount to believing Marie Antoinette saying “let them eat cake” a bit louder would’ve saved the aristocracy from the guillotine.
hellslittlestangel
Tl;dw. Did Romney have anything to say about the character of all those people voting for Trump?
Bill Arnold
@pluky:
Echoing the puzzlement about ferrets and Republicans.
Can you imaging a Republican doing the weasel war dance?
(Youtube has more with that search string)
CONGRATULATIONS!
Shit RMoney takes Trump to task for being a “crony capitalist” and refusing to release his tax returns.
There must be some German word for a man who not only has no shame, but doesn’t even know what it is.
Chyron HR
The Hedge Fund Boys at Pimento University have failed me for the last time.
mdblanche
@Anoniminous: That’s a permanent hardware issue which can’t be fixed.
pamelabrown53
@hueyplong:
Hah! IMO, I think to perfect their Frankenstein they need to transplant Trump’s “dainty” hands to Rubio’s face. The result would be “Chucky”.
Baud
I can’t believe I’m going to miss tonight’s debate.
Amir Khalid
@Bill:
“Sire, the people are revolting.”
“You said it! They stink on ice.”
The revolt always takes the establishment by surprise, methinks.
Villago Delenda Est
Mittens and Drumpf have several things in common: they were born with lots of money, and they used that lots of money to become full fledged parasites on those who actually produce wealth through their labor.
Hoodie
@Repatriated: That’s probably close to the game plan. They’ll try to get Trump to leave in a huff, as you suggest, or try to damage him so badly he won’t be viable for the general. The smear campaign may be sufficient to deny him the nomination, as his supporters start to get cold feet at the prospect of a massive loss to Hillary. If that fails, they can back off and let him fail, and spool up Obstruction II, Clinton Bugaloo. They already know how to erase a disgraced member of the Politburo from the photos. These guys would have made great Stalinists.
Betty Cracker
@hellslittlestangel: Just that Trump was playing them for suckers.
hueyplong
@Bill:
Can we call Romney “L’Autrichienne” from now on? I’m prepared to deny that it’s misogynistic in intent, though [wink, wink] that’s what works with those people.
Villago Delenda Est
@mdblanche: It can be fixed. By a fully charged phaser bank.
Bill E Pilgrim
Republican Party, 1960s to 2015: The people of this country are the salt of the Earth, the little people, small business owners, outsiders to Washington, the farmers, the real Americans.
Republican Party, 2016: The peasants are revolting, stupid, gullible and conned people who don’t know what they’re doing. Brokered convention!
The Id of the party, fully visible at last.
CONGRATULATIONS!
@hellslittlestangel: Oddly enough that part was absent. I’m sure I just missed it, even though I watched the entire thing.
Villago Delenda Est
@hueyplong: Let them eat cake! (wait, that’s Anne’s line!)
pamelabrown53
@jl:
Here’s the problem with Romney’s dispirited speech: it’s more likely to help Cruz if it has any effect at all. Here’s to a chaotic free for all at their convention. It’s about time all of America is shown how they are unfit to govern.
Bill E Pilgrim
@Bill: Had she said it at all, of course.
Chyron HR
@Hoodie:
And if that doesn’t work, they’ll sic Margaret Dumont on him.
Archon
If the Republican Party is in the process of imploding the last 15 years of politics make much more sense to me.
bobbo
R-Money – why have I never seen that before? Genius
hellslittlestangel
@Betty Cracker: Ah, the “don’t be a fool” argument. Convinces ’em every time!
hueyplong
I’ve seen references to tumbrels on this site for years. Who’da guessed it would come to pass but that it would be their own fringe driving them?
I could totally see Trump renaming months and creating a national holiday on 14 Trumpidor, his birthday (hilariously, formerly, Arbor Day).
oldgold
The speech constituted political malpractice.
1] It will not convince those voting for Trump. Rather, it will confirm their belief that the GOP establishment does not listen to them and thinks they are stupid.
2] It will provide excellent campaign fodder for Hillary in the fall.
Punchy
Gotta a lot of shit built up in that pipeline of grifters….
scav
I’m somehow thinking of that period of experimentation where Galvani and Volta were sticking things into dead frogs to make them twitch. Nephew Giovani Aldini then tried to reanimate a corpse. Only, further somehow, I’m still getting more of a signal of coherent logical purpose from Team Twitching Frog than Team Twitching Elephant.
Roger Moore
@CONGRATULATIONS!:
There’s a classic Yiddish word for Romney complaining about Trump not releasing his taxes.
Peale
@Chyron HR: Which would be fine, as Ms. Dumont is one of the under-utilized resources we have. But if she comes back from the dead, I’d rather she be put to better use, say, as the next door neighbor on Big Bang Theory or naybe a love-interest for Tyrion Lannister on Game of Thrones.
Repatriated
@Chyron HR: LOL
The other thing is they might think/realize that it’s too late to beat him within their nomination process, so their only remaining option is to make him leave in a fit of pique.
Ella in New Mexico
@CONGRATULATIONS!:
Arschloch?
Heuchler?
Verzweifelt?
mdblanche
@Villago Delenda Est: Or perhaps a job for Kirk and Mudd.
chopper
@Amir Khalid:
it should be easy. he has the best words of anybody.
dedc79
Rich Lowry appears to be about a third of the way to recognizing Cleek’s Law:
? Martin
@CONGRATULATIONS!:
Uh:
1. Has a grandiose sense of self-importance (e.g., exaggerates achievements and talents, expects to be recognized as superior without commensurate achievements).
2. Is preoccupied with fantasies of unlimited success, power, brilliance, beauty, or ideal love.
3. Believes that he or she is “special” and unique and can only be understood by, or should associate with, other special or high-status people (or institutions).
4. Requires excessive admiration.
5. Has a sense of entitlement, i.e., unreasonable expectations of especially favorable treatment or automatic compliance with his or her expectations.
6. Is inter-personally exploitative, i.e., takes advantage of others to achieve his or her own ends.
7. Lacks empathy: is unwilling to recognize or identify with the feelings and needs of others.
8. Is often envious of others or believes that others are envious of him or her.
9. Shows arrogant, haughty behaviors or attitudes.
chopper
@Betty Cracker:
i can only hope that the crazy fail train keeps chuggin’ along all the way to the convention.
Jim, Foolish LIteralist
Drumpft? Rumfelt? ETA: WP autocorrected the ‘f’ to ‘st’, and then ‘p’. Who’s running that thing?
ETA: @? Martin: Good god. It’s like it was written just for him
pamelabrown53
@Roger Moore:
!!!!! How RICH was that?! Romney exhorting Trump to release his tax returns?!
I’m certain the yiddish word you’re seeking is not “mensch”.
Ella in New Mexico
Seriously, is anyone else starting to suspect that Trump’s entire candidacy has been one, long, carefully planned work of performance art?
And that at the point of his inevitability, he’s gonna give a speech where he holds up a giant mirror and says “Take a look at yourselves. No matter what I said, no matter how ugly and divisive and impossible my statements were, you cheered me on. This is who the Republican Party is–you people. You total and complete suckers for ugly. You should be ashamed of yourselves. Go Democrats!!!”
A gal can dream…
Feudalism Now!
I don’t think this speech will help wash the loser stink off of Mittens. He seems to be wallowing in it, like a Mormon Eeyore.
Iowa Old Lady
I don’t understand how they think wresting the nomination from Trump will solve all their problems. He’s not going to go quietly.
chopper
@pamelabrown53:
it is some serious chutzpah. or choot-spah if you want to pronounce it the republican way.
Mai.naem.mobile
@hueyplong: I can see a scene where Trump is sitting back in the Oval Office with the NSA advisor in the office along with the IRS head with the SoS on the speaker phone. The NSA guy is urgently talking about a brief titled “ISIS determined to bomb Ft.Hood” and the SoS is talking NK bombing SK while Trump is revising a list of people that he wants the IRS head to audit. He’s adding the boy who didn’t invite him to his 10th birthday party, the teacher who gave his daughter a ‘B’ in Math and the airline worker who gave his son the wrong first class seat when he was going on his trip to Botswana to kill a lion and a rhino.
sigaba
I’m sure someone’s asked this recently but: Peak wingnut?
chopper
@Ella in New Mexico:
if i still lived in new york i’d take a trip up to andy kaufman’s grave to look for clues.
Mai.naem.mobile
@pamelabrown53: You don’t need a Yiddish word for Republican hypocrisy. The word is just Republican.
Jim, Foolish LIteralist
@Iowa Old Lady: They can’t love me enough to force Trump outside the tent so he can piss into it from now till Election Day. But if anyone can lead them to that point, it’s Reince, Romney, Rubio and Rafael Jr.
@Ella in New Mexico: I like the Trump as Max Bialystok theory, no matter how hard he tries to drive them away so he can go back to Mar-A-Lago and play with his collection of (I don’t know what, but something weird and creepy), they keep coming back.
beltane
@Iowa Old Lady: If Trump goes, he will take the majority of Republican voters with him.
If Trump suffered from Alzheimers and was more obedient about regurgitating pre-approved talking points, Romney would be angling for the VP spot.
Peale
@Iowa Old Lady: Well, he is the kind of guy who whispers at 100 decibels. His hair also squeaks when he walks. Quiet isn’t his thing.
Miss Bianca
@pluky:
I see Tom provided an explanation. I thought maybe they were supposed to stand in for weasels?
Love the image anyway. And the link. Any day with more ferret content is a good day, whatever the context!
ETA: Not only do those ferrets have better hair than DTrump, I’d trust them to run the country better, too.
chopper
@sigaba:
there is no peak. the deeper it gets, the more new and interesting forms of wingnut start manifesting themselves. it’s part of the quantum theory of wingnut.
Marc
Priceless:
https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/705459124771954689/photo/1
Chris Christie denies that Donald Trump was holding him hostage!
Jeffro
@dedc79: by accident my you-know-what…
Origuy
@Roger Moore:
Chutzpah?
eldorado
robespierre 2016
geg6
@Punchy:
Ben Stein has already come out for either Hillary or Bernie (he says he really doesn’t care which) over Trump. Ben Fucking Stein. I LOLed for real.
Bob In Portland
The problem for Democrats, from Down With Tyranny:
So it’s not the amount of voters, it’s the percentages?
beltane
@Marc: But was he made an offer he couldn’t refuse? New Jersey uber alles!
Bob In Portland
@geg6: Jimmy Kimmel’s godfather.
Miss Bianca
@Ella in New Mexico:
You mean, you really think Trump might be capable of a “have you no shame” moment, even if the Trumpenproletariat aren’t? You’re right…a gal *can* dream… : )
@eldorado:
Add Danton to that ticket, and now you’re talkin’…
srv
Cruz, Rubio, Romney and Trump.
Only one of those is a natural-born citizen.
Jim, Foolish LIteralist
But the whole birther thing, that was A- okay with Willard.
Willard, some time in 2012: “Nobody every asked to see MY birth certificate! ha ha ha.”
Willard, some time in 2012: “The President doesn’t understand what it means to be an American” That wasn’t even an attempt at a joke.
SiubhanDuinne
@Marc:
Oh dear. That’s just sad.
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
Methinks the Republican party is discovering, 50 years after the Democrats discovered it, why having the dixiecrats in your party sucks.
O. Felix Culpa
@? Martin: Could it be…SATAN???
geg6
@SiubhanDuinne:
Nah, not sad. Hilarious. The biggest school yard bully finally finds someone who’s an even bigger bully who makes first bully look like the loser coward he truly always was.
dedc79
@Jeffro: Yeah, that’s why I said Lowry’s a third of the way there. To get all the way there he’d have to recognize that: (1) Trump knew exactly what he’s doing and (2) Lowry himself is one of those “conservatives” who isn’t actually attached to conservative policies.
MattF
@geg6: The Clinton and Sanders camps should disavow that, right away. No foolin’.
Marc
@SiubhanDuinne:
Christie: “No, I wasn’t being held hostage, no, I wasn’t sitting up there thinking ‘oh my god, what have I done.'”
Is the Onion now unnecessary?
sigaba
New Hampshire Vets for Trump co-chair indicted for conspiracy in the Bundy Ranch standoff.
chopper
@beltane:
fits in pretty well with being on stage next to Mein Drumpf.
BretH
First impression was that of Grandpa telling the youngsters to watch out for that crazy Rock music. I’m sure it made sense to his audience but everyone else is laughing at them all.
Aleta
Watching Trump give a speech now, and it’s quite defensive, rambling between Romney and the usual bits, disorganized. He seems upset…. Wonder how much self-destruction he will be carrying into the debate tonight.
“I ruined my carpet. And nobody helped me out. Hey maybe Mitt can.”
Says he will blame Maine if he loses, because he came out of his way to talk there today.
elftx
The first thing the Trumpster did was post a link to RMoney singing his praises when Trumpster endorsed him on the book of faces.
Trump’s fanbase has been tearing up Romneys FB page ever since the speech…I just do not see how this changes anything for them when it reinforces everything Trump has told them
hueyplong
Christie denied being held hostage, but a sharp-eyed observer noted that he was blinking in Morse Code, and the message was TRUMP CUT OFF MY TESTI…
At that point the video itself was cut off. We don’t know whether the unfinished portion was “testicles” or “testimony hush money fund.”
Amir Khalid
I was browsing a copy of The Economist in a newsstand today. The lead editorial said of the Donald: “He must be stopped.”
trollhattan
@sigaba:
Oh, boy, that makes me want to take a nice, long swim in Lake Schadenfreude! It’s the refreshingest.
trollhattan
@Amir Khalid:
Jeez, one would have thought he’d be right up Economist Alley.
The Dangerman
@jl:
Seems to me the EGOP plan is to pray for a “1968 scenario”, where Nixon came damn close to losing the election to Humphrey by having it tossed to the House of Representatives because of Wallace.
In other words, hope a 3rd party (Bloomberg, Cruz, whomever) prevents Trump or Clinton (OK, mainly Clinton, as Trump has no chance) from getting to 270 and the House Elects …. fuck if I could guess at this point. Maybe Paul Ryan.
Marc
@hueyplong: Yes, denying that you’re a hostage is just what a hostage has to say.
Jim, Foolish LIteralist
Bob In Portland
A little more from Down With Tyranny!:
Debbie Wasserman Schultz may very well kill the Democratic Party. As the author says, Obama without the new voters he brought into the campaign in 2008 is Kerry 2004. Hillary, without new voters, is also Kerry. Who draws new voters to the Democratic Party?
Brachiator
I was away from the Internets and all broadcast and digital media yesterday afternoon and this morning, and had no idea that Mittens Romney had made an early delivery of the GOP Keynote address.
Sweet Moses! A man who inherited money and position from his daddy is knocking another man who inherited money and position from his daddy? I thought that the American Dream, GOP style, was to make a pile of loot and then deliver it to your offspring intact, unencumbered by and “death taxes.”
And I think that Tom Levenson is right on the RMoney when he notes that the Clinton’s biggest sin is not that they are dishonest, ruthless, and unscrupulous (which they are. Come on people), but that they are not the right sort of people, too backwater and gauche to be able to hang with Real American Oligarchs.
The only thing that Mittens left out was to declare that he meant to include the bulk of Trump supporters in his dismissal of the 47 percent who just don’t matter in the Republican vision of America.
Needless to say, I predict that Trump’s poll numbers will increase after this insane performance by Romney.
NR
This definitely falls into the category of “too little, too late.”
If Trump wins Florida and Ohio, he is the nominee. Even if he doesn’t, he still has a very good chance. A lot of the Republican primaries coming up are winner-take-all or winner-take-most. And Trump is going to be favored in a lot of them. Arizona, for example, awards 58 winner-take-all delegates, and based on the Nevada results and the racist nature of the Arizona GOP, that’s going to be Trump country.
Unless the Republicans change the rules to steal the nomination from him, Trump is going to take it. And there’s no way the Republicans will take that risk. It’s going to be Trump, and he’ll have the party behind him.
Sande in St Louis
I am still trying to wrap my head around the fact that the leading candidate for the presidency of one of the two viable political parties in the U.S. is openly advocating for a lawless presidency, and a whole bunch of folks are okay with that.
I give Romney credit for his timid attempt to halt this atrocity – too many are doing nothing.
Bob In Portland
@The Dangerman: The numbers don’t match your inevitability scenario. Based on voter turnout, Trump clobbers Clinton.
gene108
I hope down ticket Dems can tie Republicans to Trump and drag them down.
One thing the GOP and their media outlets have been very good at is demonizing prominent national Democratic figures, such that stating “Democrat A, votes along with Nancy Pelosi and her San Francisco agenda 99% of the time” is an effective attack ad in many places.
Bob In Portland
And this:
The Wasserman Way!
WarMunchkin
@Bob In Portland: I assume you’re talking about 1968 demographics. I mean, I’m scared of a silent majority scenario, too, but that’s much harder to pull off today because Trump is offset by a minority surge, probably.
Kay
Kasich comes in below Cruz. So Kasich is the Ohio and (also sort of) New England-ish candidate?
They just don’t know anything about their voters. At all.
p.a.
2 great
maps
GregB
@sigaba: His wife was in the news last week after saying the Pope was the Anti-Christ. She’s an elected state representative.
Jim, Foolish LIteralist
OT: I guess there is a tumbler account with letters to PBO. My aged fingers managed not to type scare quotes around Tumbler
The Dangerman
@Bob In Portland:
Nonsense, but that wasn’t the point of my argument; the Establishment wants NEITHER Trump or Clinton. The only way to do that is to go nuclear (unless they think they can get a 3rd Party to win outright, which, God help me Ross Perot, is impossible, I think).
ETA: I suppose the Establishment could try for a brokered convention, but if Trump is over the number and it’s taken from him, it all gets burned to the ground.
ETA2: Not saying that’s a bad thing.
Miss Bianca
@Bob In Portland:
Uhh…you’re basing this assertion on what evidence, precisely? Relative turnout of Rs and Ds at the primaries and caucuses? Because I don’t think those numbers translate one-for-one into what the turnout vote in the general election would be.
Jeffro
All I can say to my friends across the aisle is if you’re that worried for the republic there is one way to ensure that trump never attains the presidency… Just one vote, one time this November .
No fuss, no muss, and then you can go right back to being the lovable right wingers we know you to be
p.a.
@Jim, Foolish LIteralist: He’s everyone’s Crazy Uncle!
trollhattan
@Bob In Portland:
Finally figured it out: you’re srv on lithium.
hueyplong
@Bob In Portland:
I might be willing to bet a small amount of money that African American voters who yawn at a Hillary-Bernie contest will show up to vote against Donald Trump in the super-heated atmosphere of this fall, with Pres Obama telling the country it’s do-or-die time.
Enhanced Voting Techinques
@Mai.naem.mobile:
They do, and that’s why they like him because Trump is saying what they are to scared to say. It’s 14 year olds all the way down.
D58826
As much fun as it is watching the GOP cannibalize itself and it certainly has been good for the sale of popcorn there is a serious side to all of this. This campaign is going to leave serious scars on the body politic. An ugly side of America has been moved from the margin to front and center on the public stage. If Trump wins, whatever other damage he does, there is no way he can satisfy the expectations of the angry white working class. $40.00/hour plus bennies jobs in the steel mill are not coming back. The result will be even more angry people. If the GOP figures out a way to stop trump, then the trump supports will bail on the party. A democratic victory will leave the splintered GOP even more angry than it already is.
beltane
@Kay: Kasich ran some lovely, upbeat and heartwarming ads in NH/VT. He could have fooled a lot of people in a general election. The Republican base will have none of that upbeat heartwarming stuff.
Jim, Foolish LIteralist
@hueyplong: I’ll be curious to see how, and who effectively, Obama effectively puts himself on the ballot this fall.
JMG
@Bob In Portland: If Sanders was the answer to turnout problems, he’d be winning now. Primaries and general elections are different. Republicans are worried that the voters who AREN’T voting Trump in their primaries, a majority, will stay home or vote for Hillary in November.
Sande in St Louis
@Jeffro: This cannot be what we are counting on! Please tell me some adults influence have a better plan.
Ella in New Mexico
So, in some far off corner of my house, the youngest kid left CNN or MSNBC on and went to class and I’ve been hearing Trump speaking to a crowd in Maine for the past 30 minutes or so while I’m paying bills and working on my computer budget.
And he keeps repeating himself, over and over, (“he’s a choke artist he’s a choke artist Chyyyyna”) going on and on with that now trademarked monologue of narcissism he does. But really– It’s actually pretty boring. I’d be looking for the door by now if I were there even if I WAS a supporter– I can’t imagine that all those in the audience are still enraptured with this whole schtick of “ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME”.
It’s like he’s having a mandatory staff meeting with all his sycophantic senior management staff who are forced to sit there and smile and nod while he rambles on and on about how big his fricking dick is.
All I keep asking myself is “Who the FUCK is he talking to?”
Jim, Foolish LIteralist
I wonder if anywhere, across this greet wide land, from the mountains to the prairies, there is anyone, anywhere, saying, God I wish Mitt Romney had run again!
They would probably say “Gosh” or “Golly”, and I’m including people named Romney.
Steve in the ATL
@hueyplong:
Now that is the kind of stuff that keeps people coming back to Balloon Juice! No way a kos poster would come up with that.
Peale
@D58826: True. But what are we supposed to do about it? Arm ourselves? Change our positions so that we attract those voters? Say, “We’re against the banks because they’re too big and too powerful” and add “plus they’re run by Jews! in New York City!” to our wish list?
Davis X. Machina
@JMG:
Remember it’s the US. The Saudi Arabia of false consciousness — world’s biggest producer and world’s largest reserves
chopper
@hueyplong:
right. dem turnout isn’t really all that great right now primarily because most democrats like both candidates. democrats are down with clinton, which means bernie isn’t bringing out tons and tons of voters to stop her. that’s why his ‘revolution’ isn’t going anywhere right now.
on the gooper side it’s different; every guy on stage’s supporters hate all the other guys on stage with him with a passion. and drumpf’s followers are the loudest and dumbest about it.
Bob In Portland
@WarMunchkin: No, I’m not talking about 1968 demographics at all (look at the linked articles). I’m comparing 2016 so far to 2004 and 2008. So far the Democratic voter turnout is more like 2004.
For example, as much as Clinton dominated South Carolina, black voters were down 40% from 2008. DOWN FORTY PERCENT. Not that any Democrat was ever going to win SC anyway, but there are lots of states where the Republicans win by Dems staying home. Hillary’s best demographic are people over 65 making over a hundred thousand a year. How does she excite and bring out the young voters attracted to Sanders? Well, here at Balloon Juice the recruiting tool of choice seems to be denigrating, namecalling, racebaiting and otherwise insulting Sanders supporters. Also, telling them that the race is already over. How’s that working?
Why aren’t Democrats excited about Hillary, and what guarantees are there that they’ll show up in November? There are hints that this might end up being a Trump blowout.
hueyplong
@Jim, Foolish LIteralist:
Gore supposedly told Clinton to stay away in 2000. I’d like to think Clinton/Bernie wouldn’t repeat that mistake. The idea isn’t to win over Republicans (who might have alternatives of their own if we’re lucky), it’s to turn out all the Democrats.
Ella in New Mexico
@Miss Bianca:
Given his track record of absurdity and line crossing, I think he’s capable of just about anything at this point.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he walked on stage one day dressed in a giant foam pickle costume. Or better yet, a yam. ;-)
Roger Moore
@p.a.:
County-based maps are nice, but they distort the truth a lot because they make empty space look as important as densely populated areas.
SiubhanDuinne
@geg6:
I meant “sad” in that Christie even felt the need to address the “hostage” meme. A bigger* man would have ignored it altogether.
*(Rhetorical-metaphorical)
Sad_Dem
Could Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich be fed into a Star Trek transporter and turned into one candidate (with goatee) to stop Trump?
Surely they have something like that at that UN Agenda 51 place.
Sande in St Louis
@Ella in New Mexico: Okay, that made me laugh, but I am going to be fairly uncomfortable if Trump ends up getting elected, and all I can say I did to stop him is laugh at him.
I so wish I thought folks were fighting this threat with more than stunned humor. Myself included.
SiubhanDuinne
@Marc:
SAVE THE ONION!!
THE ONION FOREVER!!
MAKE THE ONION GREAT AGAIN!!!
Anoniminous
@NR:
Kasich should win Ohio. He’s the sitting governor for heaven’s sake, although he is trailing Trump in a Quinnipiac poll from early Feb. So … who knows?
@Bob In Portland:
Presidential primary voter turnout has only a limited determining factor wrt the general election. Especially in this election where we are off the map and into BizarroLand.
boatboy_srq
@Mai.naem.mobile: The GOTea hasn’t put anyone who isn’t nasty, spiteful and of questionable maturity on the ballot since 1996 – and Dole escapes the mantle simply for his comparative maturity. The distinction is that the others aren’t brave/unaware enough to wear the spite and meanspiritedness in public, where Trump carries those as badges of honor. Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, Walker… all the rest are just as mean, petty, vicious and ugly – but they hide all that behind the dual dogwhistles of patriotism and “faith”, which shields them from attack by the Establishment (who, after all, designed, and condone, the dogwhistles in the first place). If Luther is BHO’s “anger translator,” then Trump is the tantrum translator for the entire GOTea.
Mittens is tres malhereux because the short-fingered vulgarian is stomping all over what Mittens tries to present as GOP politesse. Every single GOTea candidate this cycle has said similarly abhorrent things (although Cruz – and Carson, when he could put a coherent thought together – led that pack), and every one has advocated for equally nasty policies. You’ll notice that, since those things were couched in the accepted phrasing, none of them were called out for that. The problem is simultaneously that The Donald is destroying the entire Southern Strategy toolset; and that being Not The Right Sort, he’s using the old Saxon terms for things instead of the haute societe Norman ones.
Barbara
@D58826: I have been thinking about this as well. One of the fundamental things that separates the U.S. from European countries like England and Sweden, which also have essentially two parties, one liberal, and one conservative, is that in those countries both parties accept certain social benefit parameters, like universal health care, as a given, and argue only around the edges. In the U.S., the only similar policy I can think of is foreign policy, where both parties tend towards hawkish and argue about the right balance. Looking at a lot of people who are Trump supporters, or not, but who have been marginalized by the economy, I have often thought that it’s incredible that the Republican Party literally has nothing positive for them — just the negative message of telling them who to blame for their misery and the possibility that if we give wealthy people enough tax breaks, they might throw out enough crumbs to keep them from starving. A party that can’t even get behind Food Stamps is a party of winner takes all and enforced misery for everyone else. It’s appalling. Anywho, it does seem to me some really brave person who is not Donald Trump needs to stand up and say, look, universal health care is not evil. We already have Medicare and Social Security. Let’s stop arguing about whether it’s good and start talking about how to make it work so we can start arguing about the other things that matter, like [whatever else.] I have no idea how that can happen after all the gerrymandering that has taken place. But until it does, we are in a state of stalemate.
hueyplong
@Bob In Portland:
I’d say the Clinton strategy is working ok so far. Sanders appears to be behind.
It’s fairly safe to say that Republicans, who are fairly openly soiling themselves in public right now, do not share Bob in Portland’s view that the Democrats are in for a beating this fall. But then, they don’t have the math, I mean, the numbers, as Bob does.
sigaba
@GregB: They sound nice.
Bob In Portland
@JMG: Then a bleak November for Dems. Because, as the articles I linked to point out, in areas where Hillary is “strong” the voting numbers are low.
Winning South Carolina blacks by a huge majority takes on another meaning when 40% of the black voters who voted for Obama in 2008 stay home. “Bernie can’t win, why bother finding out about him. Hillary is gonna win. Meh.”
Obviously, Balloon Juice has lots of Clinton supporters. Why are Democratic voters staying away from the polls?
NR
@Miss Bianca: Look at the latest CNN poll. The number of Republicans who say they would never vote for Trump is dropping like a rock.
Roger Moore
@hueyplong:
Having seen an honest to goodness Trump pinata being left proudly out on display for months, I have little doubt that Hispanic/Latino turnout is going to set new record highs if Trump is on the ballot.
dexwood
@chopper:
Are you sure he’s really there?
http://www.emptymirrorbooks.com/features/literature/is-andy-kaufman-still-alive-the-evidence.html
Bob In Portland
@hueyplong: We’re all reading tea leaves and making projections. So you feel pretty good that Hillary will dominate Trump this Fall? Great. You don’t need the people who stay home to win, right?
Mr. Twister
@Bob In Portland: Your proposed solution is what then ?
Steve in the ATL
@Ella in New Mexico:
Scheisskopf?
Sande in St Louis
@D58826: Thank you, for so clearly stating this. Seconded.
boatboy_srq
@Anoniminous:
Isn’t he polling second? Isn’t that why he demanded a [breaks into Zoe Wanamaker’s Madame Hooch voice] “nice clean primary” not so very long ago?
FlipYrWhig
@Bob In Portland:
Thought you’d slide that one by us, dintcha? In case of data conflicting with the narrative, blame the domination of the “institutional Democratic Party.” Does Team Bernie have any cards to play other than HILLARY BULLIED THE VOTERS THAT WERE RIGHTFULLY OURS?
NR
@JMG:
Look at the recent national polling. The number of Republicans who say they won’t vote for Trump is half what it was three months ago. And he isn’t even the nominee yet.
The Republicans will fall in line, and Hillary will drive huge Republican turnout.
Sande in St Louis
@Mr. Twister: We better stop laughing and get off our butts and start getting out the vote and we should have started last year. This whole situation feels dire.
quakerinabasement
Here’s another Trump lie: He claimed that his own investigators had traveled to Hawaii and uncovered shocking facts about Barack Obama’s birth. Which he forgot to make public. And then decided he didn’t want to talk about anymore.
Why wouldn’t Romney bring that up?
Mr. Twister
@Sande in St Louis: I think plenty of folks here have said that repeatedly.
NR
@Roger Moore:
Which will run up our popular margin but won’t help us much in the electoral college. The Hispanic vote is mostly concentrated in non-competitive states.
Villago Delenda Est
@Mr. Twister: Call in our savior, Vlad Putin, and set things right!
Bob In Portland
@NR:
And that goes for independents and democrats too.
People are tired of Washington politics. Who is more of a change, Trump or Clinton?
FlipYrWhig
@NR: But the prospect of a Donald Trump presidency will be met with a big “meh” among Democrats?
Anoniminous
@boatboy_srq:
I wrote Kasich was running second in the last Quinnipiac poll. Which AFAIK was the last time Ohio was polled.
Bob In Portland
@Mr. Twister: Vote for change. Radical change. Or watch people stay home.
trollhattan
@Steve in the ATL:
Heh. That’s “Herr Reichsmarschall Scheißkopf” to you, Buster!
bemused
@Iowa Old Lady:
The rabid Trump supporters definitely wouldn’t go quietly. Chris Hayes and Michael Steele discussed the idea that the GOP would try to change rules at nomination to push Trump out. Steele said all hell would break loose and there would be Armageddon on the floor.
Andrey
@Bob In Portland: Guarantees? There are no guarantees. So GOTV.
Bob In Portland
@Villago Delenda Est: You need to talk with Omnes Omnibus. He doesn’t like people talking about Russia around here.
By the way, have you seen Kerry’s absolute proof about MH 17 yet?
chopper
@Bob In Portland:
believing that it’s a foregone conclusion that the candidate you like and support will win the primary and the nom has a habit of depressing turnout on primary day. generally people see their primary as a means to go out and make a point and a difference. if you don’t think you have much of a point or a difference to make because your candidate has it locked up you’re more likely to stay home.
now, there are some cohorts in our population that feel the same way on election day and also tend to stay home. black voters are not one of them.
Applejinx
@Aleta: This was a valued rug. Am I wrong?
(this is our concern, dude)
Brachiator
@Bob In Portland:
This is a meaningless counterfactual. It’s like saying, “If Obama wasn’t Obama, he wouldn’t be Obama.”
Totally different dynamics at play. The question is whether Hillary can keep and expand on the Obama electorate, and how she deals with voters who currently love Bernie Sanders.
We also don’t know whether Trump will actually end up the nominee or, if he does, whether he will be able to continue to build on his enthusiastic base or attract white Democrats, especially white males.
Using Kerry as a reference point is neither meaningful nor useful.
Chyron HR
@FlipYrWhig:
You don’t understand, every single American lives their lives in a state of constant boiling rage at Hillary “killthatfuckingbitchwhorecunt” Clinton. It must be true, because otherwise NR might start to wonder if there’s something seriously wrong with his brain.
Villago Delenda Est
@Bob In Portland: Ah, the glory of the “Nach Hitler, Uns” mentality for all to see.
FlipYrWhig
@Bob In Portland: “People are tired of Washington politics” is something cheap and lazy that the media came up with to explain why they were bored of boring Bush and boring Clinton, and then the Trump people liked it, and then the Sanders people said ME TOO IT EXPLAINS US LOOK HOW MANY.
Tim C.
@Roger Moore: This. The “new voter” thing will cut both ways. Also, I get a lot of people hate Hillary, but the Venn diagram between them and those that hate Obama is pretty close to a circle. I expect it to go like the PUMA thing did about eight years ago, a lot of noise and fury followed by a recognition of the realities of the situation.
D58826
@Jim, Foolish LIteralist: We can always hope that the right wing conspiracy theory that Obama is going to cancel the election comes true.
FlipYrWhig
@Bob In Portland: EVERYBODY LIKES RADICAL CHANGE JUST THINK BACK TO THE HEALTHCARE DEBATE
gex
@Anoniminous: Forget it Jake, it’s Chinatown. Bernie both is unable to bring in the numbers to dominate Clinton in the primaries AND he’s going to draw a flood of people as has never been seen before to the GE because…revolution.
So what if Clinton won 1.3 million more votes on Super Tuesday than Sanders. And that both Cruz and Trump also got more votes than Sanders on Tuesday. It is self evident that Bernie will clobber Trump in November if all us stupid Democrats would just shut up and get out of the way.
Seriously, Bernie is in prime position to start a religion right now it seems.
Cacti
@Bob In Portland:
Bob-O, is there any subject you can’t turn into a whine about the US insulting the honor of noble Russia?
Mr. Twister
@FlipYrWhig: Exactly, and it explains the racism away on the Republican side. Remember Tom Brokaw just couldn’t explain Trump’s appeal on Super Tuesday.
Peale
@FlipYrWhig: No No No! you got that wrong! everybody hated their insurance company and if the change were more radical, young voters would have totally come to the polls in 2010 to save the democratic majority!
trollhattan
@FlipYrWhig:
And the only way to make it not “Washington politics” is to move the capital. I have some thoughts about a piece of New Jersey beach property….
Mike J
@FlipYrWhig: When people say they’re tired of Washington politics, what they mean is they’re tired of the other side of the aisle stopping them from getting everything they want. Republicans have decided that if they can’t have everything, nobody gets anything.
D58826
OT but on twitter that two more Bundy sons have been arrested. Makes it a good day
O. Felix Culpa
@Ella in New Mexico: All I keep asking myself is “Who the FUCK is he talking to?”
Easy: His Royal Drumpfself. SATSQ.
Barbara
@NR: You mean like Colorado, Nevada, Florida, and Virginia? Yeah, it should make no difference whatsoever.
Cacti
@gex:
But Bernie won the right kind of people, if you know what I mean (wink, wink, nudge, nudge).
Steve in the ATL
@Chyron HR:
Change “every single American” to “most of Steve in the ATL’s neighbors” and that would be accurate. I’m going to be very mad if I don’t see heads explode when she wins.
Germy
What happened to the contract all the GOP candidates signed? “I promise to support whoever the GOP nominee is.”
“I am Elmer J. Fudd. Millionaire. I own a mansion and a yacht.”
“Again!”
“I am,,,”
Jim, Foolish LIteralist
@FlipYrWhig: Well, I am tired of Washington politics. Especially the as-usual kind.
And boy, am I tired of winter. In a few months, it will, in fact, be hot enough for me.
And what about our local sports ball franchise(s)! They need to fire that coach, but I do love our star performer(s)! And (can’t) wait until next year.
And traffic! Don’t get me started on traffic.
JMG
On the Internet and in the media, loud wins. In elections, not always.
Mike J
@D58826: Fucked around got a triple double.
boatboy_srq
@D58826: Add to that that Business and the GOTea have collaborated to move a substantial proportion of the population segment most likely to be p!ssed off into Southern states (ostensibly seeking jobs and/or affordable retirement). If Trump loses, or if (FSM forbid) he wins and fails to produce, CW2 is a distinct possibility since his segment of the electorate won’t be interested in anything either the Dems or the GOTea Establishment can provide.
Can I get my popcorn in a to-go bag? I want to stay and watch, but I have to catch a flight in November.
Steve in the ATL
@D58826:
I’ve heard that one a few times, but from the same people who have not yet admitted that Jade Helm was, in fact, just a military training exercise
Nate Dawg
So the Berniebros are out and about passing around a useless petition to have Bill Clinton arrested and thrown in jail for his visits to polling places in Massachusetts Tuesday.
They are so divorced from reality, they think they can actually tweet storm their way to an election victory.
Bob In Portland
@Andrey: I asked what guarantees are the people who stay home in the primaries going to show up in November.
You said, “There are no guarantees.”
So I guess we agree, although around here you need a machete to cut through the snark here. Get ready for President Trump, folks.
Cacti
@Nate Dawg:
#ArrestBillClinton
I made hashtag. I can has revolution too?
boatboy_srq
@sigaba: Quelle surprise.
Mike in NC
Maybe there’s a subtle plan to bring down Trump at tonight’s “debate”, like locking him out of the building and cutting the cord to his microphone.
Barbara
@Bob In Portland: What are you, John the Baptist? “Prepare ye the way of the Lord . . .”
chopper
@Nate Dawg:
a petition to have bill clinton arrested. that’s just precious.
beltane
Well, Sarah Palin, the person the newly moderate establishment Republicans thought fit to serve as President, offers her opinion of Mitt Romney.
Bobby Thomson
@Bob In Portland: Obama would have won by three points in 2008 with Kerry’s share of the white vote.
Germy
@Mike in NC: I’m curious how Trump will behave tonight. He’ll have all the other candidates ganging up on him, and he’ll have one of the moderators after him. Will he play it cool and presidential, or will he snarl and bite?
scav
@Roger Moore: All maps distort something – what is usually missing are the intelligent map readers that know not to assume the area on that sort of choropleth map translate simply into votes. Those are dandy tidy geographic patterns to get one thinking there. Would like to play further and get some additional data on rural / urban patterns and after that start pulling in historical voting patterns.
Bob In Portland
@Nate Dawg: Yes, Nate, let’s bash those “BernieBros” again. The guy broke the law. He’s not going to get punished. You just proved those “BernieBros” right again. As it was, the Republicans came out in yuuuuuuge numbers in Massachusetts. GO TEAM GO.
Iowa Old Lady
@Germy: I’m hoping Kelly has a video lined up for him, like she did for Rubio and Cruz in the debate Trump skipped.
hueyplong
@Bob In Portland:
You’re reading tea leaves, too.
I’m happy to acknowledge that if the Democrats actually have their vote total for the presidential election cut nearly in half (40%) this fall, it will forever be remembered that Bob in Portland foresaw it on March 3, 2016 and declared it to be so to a bunch of blinder-wearing fools at Balloon Juice.
And we’ll note how stupid the Republicans were to try to stand in the way of their own landslide victory.
Bob In Portland
@Bobby Thomson: Okay, then. Nothing to worry about. You folks can spend all day punching hippies because you don’t need their votes. (That was snark)
Germy
I’m seeing all these articles about how Ailes/Fox will no longer be doing the Rubio thing. But I thought their schtick was “fair and balanced”?? Nobody even made a peep about that. Shows how transparent that slogan is. I mean, I expect balloon-juicers to not be surprised, but didn’t anybody in the MSM find that announcement a bit peculiar, considering the FairAndBalanced act Fox has been putting on all these years?
Brachiator
@NR:
Illinois, Ohio, Florida have significant Latino populations.
In 2012, Obama won Ohio over Romney, 50 to 48 percent. But here is where it gets fun. The white male vote was 36 to 62 percent Obama v Romney. The white female vote was 46 to 53 percent Obama v Romney. The Black vote was 96 percent to Obama. The Latino vote was 54 to 42 percent Obama v Romney. The overall Latino vote was small here, 4 percent, but could impact a tight contest.
Latino voters, by the way, are about 12 percent of the Illinois electorate. Florida has a significant number of non Cuban Latinos.
And as I have been cautioning, gender is the big wild card here for white, and some Latino voters. White women shifting to Clinton would bring another election result that would shock the world, as much as the vote that gave us Obama.
ETA: Data source, NBC 2012 exit polls
Cacti
@Bob In Portland:
Just because people want to punch you, it doesn’t mean you’re a hippie, Bob-O.
Applejinx
@Nate Dawg: That’s pretty childish, thinking you can arrest Bill Clinton. This is a post-rules world. Some people haven’t figured that out yet.
Germy
@Iowa Old Lady: I didn’t see that. She had a video at the debate?
Also, while I was reading comments, I heard a blast of new age music. So auto-play ads are a thing here now? Must remember to mute my laptop before visiting…
lollipopguild
@pluky: Romney=ferret. Calling Romney a ferret is an insult to ferrets.
p.a.
@Sande in St Louis:
“If the president does it it’s not illegal.”
Cacti
@Applejinx:
Maybe you can organize a “citizens grand jury” to indict the former POTUS.
Cliven and Ammon Bundy aren’t going anywhere for a while. Maybe you could hit them up for pointers.
Calouste
@Ella in New Mexico:
For a whole lot of people, I’d estimate about 27%, its all about “ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME”.
Applejinx
@Germy: He is the projection, the embodiment, of a crapload of angry embattled people with loads of real and imagined grievances.
Snarl and bite it is, preferably with seriously mean humor. Might be some good quips coming out of this. You can get a lot of mileage out of saying unsayable true things in a funny way, and it’s a fertile field for contempt and mockery.
I’d be really surprised if he does worse at this point. There’s no reason for him to.
chopper
@Applejinx:
guys, the alleged crime here carries something like a $25 dollar fine. asking that anyone be tossed in the pokey over it is fucking ludicrous.
Applejinx
@Cacti: I see you haven’t figured it out either ;)
Anoniminous
@Brachiator:
That’s good to know. If the Dem nominee can keep either Ohio or Florida it becomes almost impossible for the GOP candidate to win; if we keep both there’s no path for them to victory.
NR
Move along, move along, nothing to see here, everyone loves Hillary and will turn out for her in November.
So since 2016 and 2020 are a lock for us, who do you guys like for 2024? Chelsea should be able to run by then, shouldn’t she?
Bob In Portland
@hueyplong: I need to find out why the neocons here need to twist my words in order to make a point. Maybe your point won’t stand by itself? Better punch a hippie. That’ll turn things around. (that was snark, please don’t punch a hippie)
I never said that the Democratic voter turnout WILL BE DOWN forty percent in November. I quoted someone who said that voter turnout for blacks in South Carolina WAS down forty percent. Not a prediction at all. It’s otherwise known as WHAT HAPPENED. You know, a past event that was recorded.
Now maybe you think that large segments of the population that vote Democratic staying home in primaries is just swell because you think they’ll come out in November. Great. Be happy. The game is won!
On the other hand, in past elections when voters don’t show up at the primaries it is generally not a good sign for the general election.
There was a survey that had Clinton beating Trump by one percent, and that was before Trump’s latest surge. No problem. Everything’s fine. Onward to victory!
Betty Cracker
@Germy: I suspect it’s that stray autoplay ad that Alain got rid of during the first fix and is now having to re-get rid of during Fix the Second. It annoys the shit out of me too. Recently switched browsers and don’t have all my extensions lined up yet.
scav
And, as another somehow pleasing tidbit getting lost in the shuffle of today, Oscar Pistorius denied right to appeal against murder conviction.
Bob In Portland
@Anoniminous: Because of that huge groundswell of support for Clinton. Yeah, everything’s fine, that’s the ticket.
p.a.
@Brachiator:
Wonder if she’ll do marginally better among whites than O? Not even to the point of being electorally helpful, I’m just wondering if some % of racist Dems will return to the fold to approach Gore/Kerry territory.
Timurid
@Amir Khalid:
Sounds like a job for 007…
gene108
@Brachiator:
What powers of the Presidency did Bill Clinton abuse?
All the “scandals” thrown at him were about everything other than his execution of the office of the President, which he did in a very above board manner.
What abuses of power has Hillary demonstrated as a Senator from New York and/or as Secretary of State.
They cashed in big time on their celebrity, which is unseemly to many, and Bill’s cheated on his wife, but they have been honest in office, as far as I can tell.
Bob In Portland
@Cacti: No, the Clintons are too big to fail and too big to indict. That’s why Hillary is going to win in November. Hip hip hooray.
NR
@Brachiator: However all this is assuming that our share of the white vote won’t decline even further. I think there’s a real danger that it will. If Trump hits 70% with non college-educated whites, and boosts their turnout, the minority vote won’t save us unless we can make up the difference with college-educated whites.
Brachiator
@Cacti:
A significant portion of the Berniebot lunatic fringe seem to fear and hate the Obama coalition, which was a multi-racial group of Democrats working together. Instead they want to retreat to a vision of white activists setting the agenda, with nonwhite folk (and women) complacently following behind.
SiubhanDuinne
@bemused:
And that would be a bad thing why?
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Bob In Portland:
Has it ever occurred to you hippies that you get punched for a reason?
@Brachiator
And this is the reason.
gene108
@NR:
Obama and Hillary had an epic primary contest in 2008, the likes of which have rarely, if ever, been seen in American politics.
This got voters very fired up, because either way they would make history, with whoever the nominee was going to be.
It’s hard to capture that magic again.
El Caganer
So those ungrateful folks who comprise the GOP Great Unwashed have eighty-sixed Lord Mitten’s improving lecture.
Chyron HR
@NR:
Guess all those fake pictures of Sanders marching at Selma and “MLK would be a
RepublicanBerniebro if he were alive today” memes are doing the trick.inventor
@Bob In Portland:
Help us Obi Wan Bernobi, you’re our only hope!
Iowa Old Lady
@Germy: She put together clips of Cruz and Rubio contradicting past positions and asked them to clarify. I assume she had a similar set of clips ready for Trump and I’m keeping my fingers crossed she shows them.
Germy
@Betty Cracker: Thank you. And I want to tell you your writing is some of my favorite front page stuff. You have a serious talent for writing insightful and hilarious stuff.
Brachiator
@NR:
It is early and your speculation more reflects your fear than reality. And again, one wild card is how white women vote. You cannot, I repeat, cannot look at the white vote independent of gender. Also, as I noted in an earlier post, white women consistently voted for Obama in higher numbers than white men in 2012 (with some exceptions in the deep South).
It’s nonwhite vote, not minority vote. And yeah, a strong nonwhite turnout may save your ass. It will give you a cushion in the South, for example.
Bob In Portland
@gene108:
http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2016/01/30/clinton-system-donor-machine-2016-election/
Granted, they are too big to indict, and no one in the halls of power want to indict them. But that Qatar arms deal, doesn’t that at least get you a little queasy?
Clinton as SOS signed off on a deal that sent weapons to Qatar. Qatar isn’t in any wars right now, but it’s like Americans, they want to keep a few guns around just in case bad guys try to break into your house/country.
In return Qatar sends a nice fat donation to the Clinton Foundation. Undoubtedly that money was to be used helping women around the globe or something.
Then Qatar’s arms show up with ISIS in Iraq/Syria and in Libya. Shucks, now we have to arm the good rebels to beat the bad rebels, except that the good rebels’ weapons end up with ISIS. So we better create a no-fly zone. Why? Because ISIS has an air force?
Gene, how fucking stupid are you?
Cacti
@inventor:
He can’t turn out enough voters to win the primary, but would win the general because…
Magic revolution fairy dust!
JPL
Most democrats don’t care about the primary, because both candidates are acceptable. The low turnout might mean something, but there’s also a chance it doesn’t.
jl
@inventor: BiP has the November 2016 voter turnout numbers already? That is quite a trick and I want to see them. He needs to put them up asap.
Germy
@Iowa Old Lady: Oh God, she’ll have a Trump reel? Not sure if he can survive that. He’s said and done just about everything a person can do in front of a camera, short of man-on-ferret porn. She’s probably in the editing room right now, grinning and wiping the drool off her chin while barking orders at her assistant for more orange.
Baud
@inventor:
No. There is another.
Bob In Portland
@Brachiator: College educated whites who are under 60 are rushing out to vote for Hillary. Women under a certain age aren’t voting for Hillary.
But it’s okay. We’ll all sing kumbayah and show up at the polls in November.
jl
@JPL: I was thinking about that. I didn’t see any evidence of a relationship between primary and general election turnout in the panicked links in the BJ comments. But I admit I only skimmed them.
Iowa Old Lady
@Germy: Fingers crossed!
NR
@Chyron HR:
Well I guess Hillary is super popular, so we have nothing to worry about!
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Cacti:
I guess it never really occurs to white men that they’re the problem here – they make up the majority of Republican voters. if they voted for their own economic interest instead of for their right to retain their special place in the privilege hierarchy, we would be able to have some nice socialist things. Maybe you all need to go to work on each other, because anyone else just gets dismissed as being an insufficiently pure hippie puncher.
Betty Cracker
@Germy: Kind of you to say so! Thanks!
Cacti
@Bob In Portland:
The only demographic won nationally by Sanders on 3/1 was white males.
Nice revolution you got there, Bob-O.
trollhattan
@the Conster, la Citoyenne: Hey now, don’t go mixing up BiP/srv with hippies; hippies have uses!
Steve in the ATL
@the Conster, la Citoyenne: #notallwhitemen
NR
I like how everyone here is taking the black and Hispanic vote for granted in November, but somehow, Berniebros are the racist ones. Right.
John D.
What the hell does primary turnout have to do with anything?
@Bob In Portland:
Three things of critical importance:
1) You are using the 2008 primaries as a benchmark, which at 30.2% of the eligible voting pool was just under the record of 30.9% from 1972.
2) In 2008, Dems had 19.3% turnout and the GOP had 10.8%. So the GOP has far more room to expand turnout than the Dems do.
3) Primary turnout and general election turnout are not correlated. Read that again. It’s very, very important.
1972: The year with the highest turnout in the primaries? Largest General Election decline since WW2.
Stop misusing statistics. All data taken from here. Look at the chart on page 3.
hueyplong
@Bob In Portland:
It’s from Wikipedia, so maybe a little salt with it, but anyway, talking about the NH Democratic primary in 2012, it says, “The total votes cast were more than 30 percent fewer than in 1996, the last time that a Democratic president ran for re-election without significant opposition.”
As you posted, “No problem. Everything’s fine. Onward to victory!” Based on the right wing meltdown of the last 4 years, I think Obama ended up winning the general.
So, yes, I guess I kind of think you’re concern tolling. I really hope thinking that doesn’t constitute “hippie-punching,” which suddenly seems like a very broad term that basically translates to “failing to become deeply alarmed after reading your posts.”
If your point is simply that Democrats really need to concentrate on turnout this fall, I agree. But I would have thought that without the serial histrionics.
Cacti
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
A revolution of the most coddled, insulated demographic group in U.S. politics.
No wonder it’s failing.
FlipYrWhig
@gex:
That only happened because the Institutional Democratic Party rigged the game! And ignorant Negroes fell for it! #feelTheBern
Bob In Portland
@inventor: Punch a hippie. That always works.
SiubhanDuinne
@Germy:
Are we 100% certain of that?
Chyron HR
@NR:
You’re going to kill yourself if Hillary wins the general, right? I mean, it’s not that I want you to die or wish that hardship on your friends and loved ones (if any), but surely even someone as pathetic as you would feel an unbearable sense of shame at being so very, very wrong in such a very, very loud manner for so very, very long. Right?
Bobby Thomson
@hueyplong: it actually works better with Drumpf, who is said to keep Austrian speeches on his bedside table.
Gravenstone
@Bob In Portland: I can’t defend my position or refute your charge, so I’ll just whine. Gotcha.
trollhattan
@NR:
Assumes facts not in evidence.
jl
@Baud:
Ithink “Obi Wan Baudobi” sounds pretty lame though. Sorry.
Brachiator
@gene108:
Funny, I never wrote that Bill Clinton (or Hillary) abused the powers of their office.
However, some of the allegations that Bill Clinton used state troopers and other government employees still linger and may have involved an abuse of office. I think that lying about sex is a constitutional right, but Clinton also encouraged others to do so, which got his horny ass caught in a honey trap and the impeachment BS.
Travelgate just seemed like tacky high handed crap that unnecessarily ruffled feathers even if what the Clintons did was not absolutely illegal.
However, the bottom line is that the vast majority of this stuff was trivial compared to what other presidents, and especially Dubya and his crony fools got into. And a great deal of this stuff was on Bill and not Hillary.
NR
@Chyron HR: Show me where I said Hillary was certain to lose in November. Otherwise, you’re just babbling nonsense.
inventor
@NR:
So…….berniesplaining yet again how John Lewis is a no-good liar and how Sanders led the Civil Rights Movement will assure turnout?
randy khan
@NR:
Just for kicks, here are the turnout numbers from 2004 to date for the Democratic Presidential primary in Virginia:
2004: 400,278
2008: 986,203
2012: none held
2016: 782,895
So, a lot more voters than when Kerry was nominated, but fewer than 2008. Probably not a lot you can draw from that.
Chyron HR
@NR:
Well, you certainly exposed someone babbling nonsense around here. Well done.
Bob In Portland
@Bobby Thomson:
So now you are talking about whites only? Why?
Obama got 69,298,000 votes in 2008. Kerry got 58,895,000 votes in 2008. That suggests that when you have lots of voters you win. When people stay home you lose. Not rocket science.
Brachiator
@NR:
I’m not taking the black and Latino vote for granted, and yes, somehow the Berniebros are stepping into racism.
Bob In Portland
@Chyron HR: Your link does not match your quote. I’m sure it was an oversight on your part.
jl
@John D.: Thanks for link.
Too many factors will have important effect on primary turnout that may increase or decrease turnout in general for a party One important one is interaction of degree of division in national party (pretty big for GOP now) and number of contested state primaries (pretty big right now, though that may change after March 15). That could produce high primary state turnout for GOP but depress general election turnout if the divisions are not patched up.
HRC has been assumed a shoe-in, and either HRC or Sanders would probably be about the same and acceptable to most Dem voters. Except on issue of HRC being historic first woman president, but not sure how much that matters given high probability that she will be nominee.
Bob In Portland
@Brachiator: Explain the racism. It’s racism that black voter turnout was down 40% this year, and it’s the fault of Bernie Bros?
You must not have had your share of hippies punched today.
Miss Bianca
@NR:
Are you trying to say that this means there’s going to be a YOOOOGE turnout in the general election for Trump? ‘Taint necessarily so. Still don’t think there’s sufficient evidence for saying that a Trump victory over Clinton is a foregone conclusion in November.
Bobby Thomson
@Bob In Portland: if radical change is a motivator, it should motivate people in the primaries. And if it doesn’t, it isn’t. QED
Brachiator
@Bob In Portland:
We did just that in 2008 and 2012. Where were you?
Bob In Portland
@FlipYrWhig: That’s confidence! Fuck them hippies. Fuck Democrats under 50. And stay off my lawn. That spot is reserved for my Hillary sign.
Betty Cracker
Hippies are the new Putin.
Monala
@NR: But what if Lationos put Texas (32% of pop) or Arizona (25%) in play? That would be pretty significant. Those two states have the largest Latino populations except for California and New Mexico.
Bob In Portland
@Brachiator: But we didn’t do it in 2004. Was Kerry as exciting as Obama? Is Hillary bringing in new voters?
John D.
@jl: The general rule of thumb is “the more contested the primary, the higher the turnout”.
For all the heat and noise being generated online, the Democratic primary is far less contested than the Republican one. So many people want to draw conclusions from the turnout numbers that are unsupported by any historical data.
muddy
The ferrets disturb me. Why are they taking such odd postures? It looks like he maimed them in order to make them hold still for drawing.
I don’t even know if I’m using metaphor at this point.
chopper
@Bob In Portland:
switch to decaf.
muddy
@John D.: If it weren’t contested, Democrats would get no press at all, and the Republicans would be concentrating on attacking Hillary Clinton more and sooner.
trollhattan
@Bob In Portland:
Perhaps you’ve heard of them, they’re called “women.”
Ella in New Mexico
@Brachiator:
Disgruntled former Baud supporter
@Bob In Portland: Your concern is noted. And anyone who disagrees with your dire assessment clearly is an elderly DLC hippie-puncher.
This is tiring, and I’m not sure I want to ask, but what’s your point anyway?
Bob In Portland
@Cacti: If you keep bringing up Putin, you don’t want me to talk about it. I’ve only responded when people cast Soviet aspersions at me. Should I just ignore you? Yeah, I probably should.
Mnemosyne
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
We had a whole thread about that last night. (Some) white dudes were sulking. I enjoyed myself very much.
NR
@inventor: Which never happened, but the fact that you guys are lying about it is pretty sad.
John D.
@muddy:
They have never stopped attacking her since 1992. That is a plain statement of fact, not hyperbole.
Bob In Portland
@Disgruntled former Baud supporter: What’s my point in responding? What’s my point in writing something? What’s your point? Why do you post comments?
If you challenge my post, I’ll respond. Pretty simple.
Brachiator
@Bob In Portland:
Why are you wasting time jawboning over early primary voting? And no, I don’t blame Bernie Bros.
I’m old enough to have known real hippies, who were largely a bunch of useless strungout @ssholes chasing young girls. I give less than a rat’s ass about hippies. I do, however, respect people who were committed activists and more in the 50s and 60s.
And politics and elections is where you fulfill activism.
NR
@Chyron HR: So in other words, you can’t show where I said that Hillary is certain to lose in November.
Thanks for admitting you’re full of shit.
Mnemosyne
My favorite Trump-related Facebook meme of the day:
Mr. Twister
@Ella in New Mexico: I see what you did there. The question is are they going to all vote for Hillary ? I am betting not all of them.
Bob In Portland
@the Conster, la Citoyenne: So clear cut. All white men are the problem. Look, I’ve seen pictures of Balloon Juice get togethers and so far all the faces are old and white. Are all BJers white women?
Yes, nothing like calling people racists to pull in voters. Even better than hippie-punching. I can see the line of new voters all the way from my window.
Disgruntled former Baud supporter
@Bob In Portland: So there’s no point to all your concern, then?
muddy
@John D.: I realize that. What I mean is that they would all be after her like it was the general already. She would be running against 6 opponents all through the spring. Right now it’s being reported as she against Bernie.
I think it’s as well for it to go on contested as long as possible, and let people see which part is decent and civilized to one another. I expect Hillary will win the primary and that’s great. I just think it’s good that Bernie is in the mix as well.
NR
@Monala: We would need something like 80% Hispanic turnout, with them voting 80% D, to flip Arizona. That’s extremely unlikely to happen, to put it charitably. And that’s assuming we get the same share of the white vote we did in 2012 and that black turnout stays the same, two assumptions that look very shaky right now.
And even that wouldn’t be enough to flip Texas.
Bob In Portland
@chopper: Take your meds. There we go. We can reduce discourse to name-calling, Chopper. Are you, like Cacti, a homophobe too?
Callisto
@Bob In Portland:
A bit simplistic, but it does indeed get the job done.
Miss Bianca
@Ella in New Mexico:
Now, I would almost pay to see Trump in a pickle costume. Or a yam.
Trump 2016: “I yam what I yam”.
Bob In Portland
@trollhattan: I went to the Bernie Sanders rally here in Portland and there were plenty of women. And most of them were actually under 65.
So what are the figures for over-65 women registering to vote for the first time? Must be astounding.
Brachiator
@Ella in New Mexico:
You and I know different people. And note that I did not say “all” or even a majority of Sanders supporters.
BTW, on my way home last Saturday, I ran into a group of Sanders supporters (wearing blue t shirts) coming from some event. They were all young women, no Bernie Bros. They were cool people, enthusiastic, having fun.
Also, btw, what’s the deal with some Bernie supporters jumping all up in Elizabeth Warren’s shit over her failure to endorse Sanders?
Bob In Portland
@Callisto: Isn’t John Cole a white man?
Callisto
@Bob In Portland:
So says the guy who writes things upthread like “Gene, how fucking stupid are you?” That’s more than a bit rich.
Applejinx
@Ella in New Mexico: It’s not really about reality testing.
For months now, the Hillary people have been of the opinion that the way to beat Bernie is to paint him as a sexist, racist, monster. The truth doesn’t matter, it’s politics.
And they’re very on-message and know exactly what they’re doing, which is to fill anyplace they can with the narrative that Bernie, and his people, are racist sexist monsters.
It doesn’t matter that Bernie, confused, ceded the stage to BLM activists, while Hillary more recently had an activist physically removed from one of her events without hesitation. None of that matters.
The narrative is clear and they’re sticking to it. Anyone for Bernie is a racist, even when they’re not. They extrapolate and make up stuff to serve the narrative. They’ve learned well from previous opposition and don’t intend to be beaten again. Unfortunately, they’ve learned from people like Karl Rove.
You have to make some allowances for this. It might or might not be a winning strategy, depending on how sheerly obnoxious it is. Points for effort?
Also, Bob? Remember you have to play by Obama rules. If we win, then we can hire an anger translator :)
Callisto
@Bob In Portland:
I’m sure John has some pretty harsh words for his fellows. You could always e-mail him and ask, I hear he loves that.
Disgruntled former Baud supporter
@Bob In Portland: And we should assume that someone who attended a Sanders rally during the primaries will stay home rather than vote for Clinton in November?
Bob In Portland
@Disgruntled former Baud supporter: As much point as everyone else who posts here. Certainly more than Cacti and his homophobic drool. Do you support his homophobic crap? If you do, then don’t say anything about his eruptions.
Oh, that’s right. You don’t.
I guess you only try to shut up people who disagree with you. Wonderful.
Matt McIrvin
@Ella in New Mexico: IRL, the Bernie fans I know are Obama voters. Online, I know some who refused to vote in 2012 or supported Jill Stein.
D58826
@gene108: Ken Starr spent 100 million dollars and all he came up with was a blue dress and a blowjob. The Clinton’s may be the most dishonest people to have every walked the earth but given the non-stop investigations since 1992 no one has proven anything. So they either are the most corrupt AND smartest people ever to have lived or maybe the smoke that every one talks about while looking for the fire, is simply some people with a smoke generator. I doubt that any politician could withstand that much scrutiny and come out sweeky clean.
Bob In Portland
@Disgruntled former Baud supporter: Some will or will vote for Jill Stein. Clinton and Sanders aren’t interchangeable. Considering that Clinton is getting lower turnouts than Obama in 2008, you can certainly do the math.
Did you know on the trustworthiness/likeability scale that Clinton scores a negative 58%? That’ll rally people to the polls.
FlipYrWhig
@Brachiator:
I dunno, does it indicate perhaps that the campaign draws heavily from deranged zealots anxiously awaiting the next dolchstosse from The Establishment because it makes them feel marginally alive and meaningful?
Bob In Portland
@D58826: The Clinton Foundation and the Clinton Global Initiative weren’t founded until after Bill left office. Follow the money.
Brachiator
@Bob In Portland:
You seem to really want to live in 2004 and pretend that 2008 and 2012 never happened. This is a waste of time.
And 2016 is not a return to 2004.
Bob In Portland
@FlipYrWhig: Certainly one of the main drivers for the angry right.
Disgruntled former Baud supporter
@Matt McIrvin: Sounds about right – makes you wonder why “virtual” Bernie supporters online are more likely to be virulently anti-Hillar and generally anti-Democrat than the ones you meet in real life. Couldn’t have anything to do with rat fvking, now could it?
Bob In Portland
@Brachiator: The turnout numbers are. Please stop presuming what decade I want to return to. It suggests that your arguments are weak. Address them head on.
Rasputin's Evil Twin
@CONGRATULATIONS!:
Yes, it’s Drumpf
John D.
Here’s what the Primary and General turnouts look like since 1972 (1968 included to provide 1972 change percentage).
Year Pri% Chg Gen% Chg
1968 19.2 (0) 61.9 (0)
1972 30.9 (11.7) 56.6 (-5.3)
1976 29.6 (-1.3) 55.1 (-1.5)
1980 26.0 (-3.6) 54.7 (-0.4)
1984 23.9 (-2.1) 56.0 (1.3)
1988 25.5 (1.6) 53.1 (-2.9)
1992 21.7 (-3.8) 58.1 (5.0)
1996 17.5 (4.2) 51.5 (-6.6)
2000 19.0 (2.5) 54.3 (2.8)
2004 17.2 (-2.8) 60.9 (6.6)
2008 30.2 (13) 61.6 (0.7)
2012 15.9 (-14.3) 58 (-3.6)
Mea culpa. I was wrong.
Primary and General election turnout are correlated. NEGATIVELY. r=-0.196
So, hopefully this will put to rest the notion that these two turnouts track each other. They are more likely to move in opposite directions.
D58826
@Bob In Portland: The assertion that the Clinton’s are the most corrupt people to have every lived has been knocking around in the national media and right wing world since 1992.
Until someone does follow the money and files criminal charges it is still just a guy behind the curtain with a smoke generator.
Bill Arnold
@Germy:
The old autoplay ad a few weeks ago (blocked it) shows as “ora.tv” in my NoScript (for firefox) list of perma-blocked sites.
(NoScript is kinda finicky unless you’re into that sort of thing. I like the control, and let most scripts associated with balloon-juice through. )
Bob In Portland
@Callisto: Oh gee, am I the first person to use the “f-word” here directed at another poster? Callisto, I’ll support you. Everytime an obscenity comes out of any poster I promise to back you up.
Or are you just being hypocritical? Yeah, it seems to me that you’re hypocritical. But I guess since Clinton has wrapped up the victory in November you’ve got to fill your time. Please, go punch a hippie. You’ll feel better and bring out lots of women over 65 to vote for the first time in a general election. Yeah, that’s the ticket.
Miss Bianca
@John D.:
Oh, you brave, silly man! *Why* are you bringing *facts* to a slanging match? ; )
Thanks, tho’ – that is interesting information.
Brachiator
@NR:
Arizona would be tough to win, even with an 80 percent Latino turnout.
As it is, in 2012, Latinos voted for Obama 74 to 25 percent vs Romney. Unfortunately whites were 74 percent of the electorate, and voted 66 percent to 32 percent Romney over Obama. Black voters made up only 4 percent of the electorate, so a strong or weak turnout may not make much of a difference either way.
65 percent of white women, and 67 percent of white men in Arizona voted for Romney.
This would be a very tough nut for the Democrats to crack.
John D.
@Miss Bianca: I’m a math geek and really, really, really hate innumeracy. Unsupported handwaves drive me batty. So I went digging for the data (and was surprised myself!)
Bob In Portland
@D58826:
And who said that “the Clinton’s are the most corrupt people”? Not me. The first clue is that I usually don’t use a possessive for a plural.
But there are many indications that Clintons are influenced by all those rich people’s money. (And a lot of them are white men too!!!!) I must just be too pure to vote for Hillary. But you’re not, so go ahead. Maybe you can get some skim.
Brachiator
@John D.:
good stuff. Thanks.
Lance Badger
@Kay: Trump is the poster boy for and the epitome of Narcissism.
D58826
@Bob In Portland: Rich people are a lot of things but generally they are not stupid. They give money to politicans to buy influence. If that is HRC’s worst sin, then the golden wings are alrteady on order for when she passes those pearly gates.
Nate Dawg
@Bob In Portland: It’s not clear he actually broke the law. Not everyone who breaks every law is arrested. It isn’t even desirable that this is the case.
Lovely to see leftist activists turn all Law and Order on Bill Fucking Clinton.
Callisto
@Bob In Portland:
2008 was an actual contest. People come out and vote in the primaries when it’s a real contest.
Don’t get me wrong, Democrats aren’t going to come out and vote for Clinton the way they came out to vote for Obama. Sanders wouldn’t be better in that regard – he’s no Obama either. Nobody is. Obama is a once-in-a-lifetime politician.
However, I’d posit that a great many more Democrats are going to come out to vote against Trump/Whatever Moron He Picks than came out to vote against McCain/Palin. Palin’s sheer idiocy drove a lot of Democrats to the polls and Trump is like 10 times the dangerous schmuck she is.
The thing you have to understand is that black folk vote consistently and consistently for the Democrat based on the understanding that POC fare the worst under Republican administrations and policies. This is true irrespective of who is on the Democratic side of the ticket. The fact that Trump is an out-and-out racist jerk will bump the numbers up even more. The guy couldn’t even bring himself to repudiate the KKK for crying out loud.
Low primary numbers reflecting no real strong preference among two good Democratic candidates (or the belief that one has it all locked up anyways so why bother) doesn’t translate to staying home on election day when a notably racist Republican is on the ticket.
Callisto
@Bob In Portland:
No, but if you’re going to insult people like that you have little standing to complain about other people’s “personal attacks”. If you can’t take the heat, etc. etc.
Jeffro
@Sande in St Louis: no it’s not what we are counting on of course…just thought I would throw it out there to these despairing, supposedly helpless, hand-wringing ninnies on the right. They could take this guy out anytime they want
Nate Dawg
@Nate Dawg: You know, you Bernie people could do something actually useful. You could organize to change the Democratic primary so future years aren’t so stacked against insurgent candidates. There are a number of reforms that could make that happen. Grab your delegates Bernie, and sic them on the DNC.
I’m guessing you don’t want to do that because it actually might accomplish something.
You’d rather whine and moan about how every election is stolen from Bernie than doing anything meaningful, is that it?
Jeffro
@Callisto: seconded, all of it
Bill Arnold
@gene108:
The Republicans have 20 years of hatefully curated anti-Clinton negativity and conspiracy theory to draw upon.
On the other hand, the flensing knives haven’t been brought out yet, to remove some of Trump’s unwarranted popularity, and his skin is thin. (I genuinely hope for his sake that he’s up to it.)
After this election cycle (and even during it), the hard job will be repairing the breaks in civil society.
D58826
@Bill Arnold: And once they finish with Trump they will turn their attention to Bernie if he is the nominee. It’s who they are. And I don’t mean that as a knock on Bernie so save your outrage. Bernie’s favorables are higher because no one has been attacking him at the national level until the current primary season.
Bob In Portland
@Nate Dawg: I’ll send a letter to Schultz.
Bob In Portland
@Callisto: So you were quiet about personal attacks against me for what reason? Is it because you’re a hypocrite?
Bob In Portland
@Callisto: Then you have nothing to worry about. The Democratic Party has never been healthier. Onward to victory.
Bob In Portland
@Callisto: And apparently, some heat bothers you more than other heat. And apparently Cacti’s homophobic rages suit you just fine. Or you’re a hypocrite.
Bill
@Bob In Portland:
Whether the Democratic nominee brings in “new” voters depends largely on who the Republican nominee is. If it’s Trump – which is very likely – the Democrat will bring in new voters. Both “Independents” (whatever that label means these days) and moderate Republicans. Arguably Hillary has a better shot of bringing in that later group than Bernie does.
But if your argument for Bernie hinges on “he’ll bring in new voters,” you need to explain why he’s failed to bring in new voters in any primary so far. There’s nothing magical about the general as opposed to the primaries.
And I say all this as a guy with a Bernie sign on his lawn.
Bob In Portland
@D58826: I am an atheist.
Bill Arnold
@John D.:
Thanks! (More of this (numbers and facts) please.)
D58826
@Bob In Portland: well good for you.
randy khan
@Bob In Portland:
I haven’t seen a lot of enthusiasm polls, and at this point I think they’re probably kind of suspect, but the one that I noticed recently found that a higher percentage of the caucus-goers in Nevada would be enthusiastic about Clinton than about Sanders. It was something like 85% to 65%, which was significant to me because it meant that a pretty significant majority of Sanders voters also were enthusiastic about Clinton.
Take it for what it’s worth, which as I noted, may not be much.
Wyatt Derp
Mitt Romney complaining about someone who lies, switches his positions when convenient, and won’t release his tax returns. My irony meter just exploded!
Cacti
@Bob In Portland:
Que?
Nate Dawg
@Bob In Portland: about what I thought. Trolls gonna troll.
AnotherBruce
@Cacti: Apparently Bob is having a ragefit and throwing poo. Someone must have hurt his feelings.
Miss Bianca
@John D.:
Not a math geek, but I deeply appreciate it when anyone takes the trouble to dig up facts and figures rather than merely blowing smoke out of their nether orifices.
Callisto
@Bob In Portland:
I’m sorry that pointing out your clear double standard gets your knickers in such a twist. If you wish to avoid this in the future, your options are either to stop dishing it out or start taking it.
Bob In Portland
@D58826:
http://www.salon.com/2016/03/03/this_is_why_bernies_the_democratic_front_runner_justice_department_probe_of_hillary_inches_closer_to_ending_clintons_campaign/
Although I personally think she’s too big to indict.
Callisto
@Bob In Portland:
This sounds like bog-standard projection. Typical of the holier-than-thou type when you point out his or her own double standard; they aim to shift the negative quality onto the person pointing it out in order to support their own denial.
I’ve said nothing about personal attacks per se. This is the internet, after all, it happens. I have, however, pointed out that you yourself made such attacks above (and it’s not like Gene was even replying to you, much less insulting you). Pointing out a person’s double standard does not require that I condemn the ‘standard’ in question.
Bob In Portland
@Callisto: Well, as geg6 puts it:
That’s okay to say to me, right Callisto? Remember, our discussion started with you calling me out for using the f-word. But are “sucking wad” and “total douche” okay? If it’s not obscenities, perhaps you were offended that I called someone “stupid”.
Okay, I get it. You’re a hypocrite and it’s basic to BJers to attack people with different views than yours. Kick kick punch punch. You old white women are a tough bunch. Oh wait. If I say “white women” that would be misogynistic. But blaming “white men” is just fine.
Callisto
@Bob In Portland:
If you’re going to insult others first, then yes, other people get to insult you. Unless you think that you should be able to attack others while remaining somehow untouchable.
What makes you think I’m white?
Mike G
RomneyTron3000’s irony circuits must be malfunctioning.
This is the sleaze who refused to release his tax returns, then grudgingly submitted heavily-edited returns for the two previous years only and told us the rest of it was none of our business.
And who somehow got $100 million into a tax-exempt IRA account.
John D.
@Bob In Portland: I attacked you not for differing views, but for strident ignorance in saying:
That is a deeply stupid statement on multiple levels. You then shifted the goalposts to The Democrats that have been elected President won by winning the north and west., which, while not completely true, is at least somewhat defensible.
You are sloppy with your definitions and your arguments. You conflate primary voters with general election voters. handwave away inconvenient facts, and hope nobody notices the sleight of hand.
I’m relatively sure that everyone following this thread has noticed your complete lack of response to my data regarding your claim in comment 227:
So, no, I don’t think it is a personal attack to note that you are a disingenuous debater. Or moron. I view both categories identically.
sigaba
@John D.: it makes sense that there would be a negative correlation- high primary attendance indicates that the decision is contentious and unlikely to produce a satisfying outcome.
People aren’t kookoo to vote in the Democratic primary because they’re sanguine about both options and would happily vote for them. The Republicans have crazy turnout but they’re split 50/50 with each group openly threatening to stay home if their guy doesn’t win.
John D.
@sigaba: Exactly. Which is why it drives me crazy to see people just spouting numbers regarding this primary season vs. 2008, devoid of context and understanding. 2008 is not a useful baseline, with the second highest primary turnout and highest general turnout since 1972. The Democratic primary in 2008 was *highly* contentious, with almost twice the turnout of the GOP primaries. 2016’s primary season is inverted from 2008. The GOP is hotly contested, so loads of voters are coming out, while the bulk of the Democratic voters feel like either candidate is worthy of being President.
It’s also not useful to see the constant “the youths aren’t turning out for Hillary!”/”minorities aren’t turning out for Bernie!” comments. A primary is a ranking of PREFERENCE. Usually, almost every primary voter will vote for the candidate that represents their party, even if the candidate they preferred did not win. Polling so far indicates this will hold true on the Dem side. The GOP is screwy this year, and will likely have a bunch of voters sit out or cross over, though the election is far away and they may yet change their minds. So the youths and the minorities that voted in the (D) primary will likely vote for the eventual Dem candidate.
chopper
@sigaba:
exactly what i and several others have been saying. but oh the sky is falling!
Bob In Portland
@John D.: On the two latest favorability polls Clinton is -21 and -15. Sanders is +15 and +9.
But numbers mean nothing.
The Golux
@Aleta:
That rug really tied the room together, did it not?
Bob In Portland
@Callisto: I wasn’t first. You’re a hypocrite. It’s okay to admit that you only get upset when, say, a Sanders supporter uses insults. You’ve demonstrated yourself perfectly.
So what should I draw from this? That Callisto is dishonest. So fine, I’ll remember that the next time you comment here.
By the way, I never saw you at civil rights demonstrations. Yeah, you fit right in with the Hillary camp.
Bob In Portland
@Cacti: Sorry, it was geg6 homophobic rant.
John D.
@Bob In Portland: You keep throwing out numbers devoid of context. Why do favorability numbers matter? I mean, I get that Sanders is viewed more favorably than Clinton. So? Clinton has a 50% lead in pledged delegates, and yet Sanders is viewed much more favorably. Hmm. Perhaps that number is a poor indicator of electoral performance.
John D.
@Bob In Portland: Weird, it ate my comment.
So, if favorability numbers are important — and by that I mean they are a useful predictor of electoral success — how does Clinton have a 50% lead in pledged delegates over Sanders with much worse favorability numbers?
Callisto
@Bob In Portland:
This makes literally no sense at all. I never got upset at you calling Gene “fucking stupid” upthread (again, Gene wasn’t even talking to you, much less insulting), rather I only pointed out your double standard in then getting your knickers in a twist over people insulting you.
This is a seriously inane thing to say to a black woman, especially an older one. I think you need to step away from the keyboard for a bit.