While we’re discussing the #NeverTrump fantasy, which hinges on cool, calm action by right-thinking Republicans under the sober leadership of revered party elder Mitt Romney, let’s not forget the winner-take-all shituation faced by these late-to-the-party clowns. Florida (99 delegates), where Trump has a commanding lead over Rubio, and Ohio (66 delegates), where Kasich could eke out a victory but Trump is still ahead, are the winner-take-alls that fantasy league pundits are wanking about. But Illinois and Missouri also have big winner-take-all primaries on the same day, and look at the (admittedly thin) polling in Illinois:
Missouri hasn’t even been polled recently. So even if some miracle occurs and Rubio wins Florida (scoff), and Kasich wins Ohio, if Trump wins in Illinois and Missouri, he’s still comfortably in the lead.
The math just doesn’t work for #NeverTrump unless somehow the now-obvious fact that Trump’s penis is micro rather than macro is going to sway Republican voters.
Update: As shortstop pointed out in the comments, Illinois is winner-take-all for statewide delegates, and some others are elected by Congressional District. Missouri is winner-take-all if the winner gets more than 50%, otherwise it is like Illinois. Jesus, could this be any more complicated? In other news, David Brooks says it’s not too late to stop Trump, which is definitive evidence that it’s too late.
OzarkHillbilly
He will win MO with Cruz in 2nd. We like assholes in MO. Just look at our state legislature. It’s like East Kansas.
NonyNony
…
I just had a scary thought that we’re going to see pictures of Trump’s wang before this contest is over.
japa21
Latest poll I saw this morning in Illinois has Trump at 32%, Cruz at 22 and Rubio at 21.
Slight drop but it is going to take something disastrous to happen for Trump to lose.
Rubio is running ads bashing Trump, apparently not being smart enough to realize that for Trump supporters, second choice would be Cruz and third choice would be not voting.
feebog
I thought it was winner starting March 15, but apparently not in all states. For instance, California is winner take all by congressional district. The way the Republicans have set up their nomination process really is a hot mess. You can complain about super delegates all you like, but at least the Democrats have an understandable process. I would like to see Dems go to all primaries though, the numbers in some of these caucus states have been pitiful.
Major Major Major Major
Don’t want to read about Trump right now? Why not check out the newest chapter of One Fish, Two Fish, Blowfish, No Fish?
–M^4 -248
japa21
@OzarkHillbilly: Like East Kansas but, IIRC, they tend to look down their noses at Kansas, so even more likely they would go Trump and not vote Cruz like Kansas did.
dmsilev
And, of course, remember that right now the leading option to Donald Trump is …Ted Cruz.
I wonder whether we’ll get to see Reince Preibus break down and cry on national television. I hope so.
David Fud
@OzarkHillbilly: And here I thought West Kansas were where the true assholes were in that state.
Corner Stone
Calvin “The Artist Formerly Known As Megatron” Johnson has retired.
maye
Unless something happens today in Michigan, e.g., Cruz outperforms polls and either wins or loses in a photo finish.
And can I just ask: When will the rust belt stop playing the victim? Why are they still whining about jobs lost a generation ago? Isn’t it time to elect federal, state and local officials who will make an effort to bring NEW business and industry to their areas? Yes, it’s terrible that 20th century manufacturing went extinct. But what about technology, clean energy, and green innovative industry? Isn’t it long past time to actually find a way to FIX the economic plight of this region? How many more generations will put up with working at Walmart and nursing resentment toward history?
japa21
@feebog: Iowa will never go primary, because then they would lose first in nation status to New Hampshire which is required by state law to be first primary in the nation.
piratedan
just goes to show that I guess you really can run for President on a platform that mainly consists of spite.
raven
Pat Lang has banned all discussion of American politics!
piratedan
@maye: you might wish to add the areas of West Virginia, Eastern Kentucky, western Virginia and Pennsylvania asking the same thing…
Corner Stone
Watching the highlights and it is amazing how happy Matthew Stafford’s feet always are.
Bobby Thomson
@David Fud: you’re not wrong. East Kansas has a long history of looking down on those slavers to the east. West Kansas is Texas without the inclusiveness and cosmopolitan nature (or brown people).
Mike J
@feebog:
NonyNony
@maye:
We do – over and over again. Look at the kinds of governors and representatives who get elected. Yeah there are the crazy Christians, but mostly the guys who get elected are promising jobs. The only problem is that their mechanism for getting jobs involves tax cuts and tax incentives for businesses in other states, killing unions and doing other things to make the state “more attractive” for “job creators”. Things that actually have a negative effect on the state and cause businesses to move out because infrastructure is falling apart and quality of life decreases.
From the economic side the biggest problem we have is that the “we’ll cut taxes and slash regulations to make our state more attractive for investors” point of view is one of those “common sense” sorts of ideas that are easy to sell to voters but that don’t work because economics is a lot more complex than that. A lot of voters have bought into the “Our Taxes Are Too High And That’s Why Businesses Leave The State” explanation when in fact it’s rarely actually true. But dislodging them from it won’t happen – no matter how much you cut taxes and slash regulations there are always still taxes and still regulations so it’s easy to believe that you just haven’t “gone far enough”.
“Common sense” is what tells us the Earth is flat and the sun revolves around the Earth. These days I’m wary of any politician who comes around selling “common sense” solutions to problems – they’re likely either idiots who can’t think any deeper than a children’s wading pool or they’re con artists looking to sell me some voodoo economics.
Michael Bersin
In 2012 Santorum won the Missouri beauty contest because (ahem) it’s an open primary and it’s rumored a significant number of Democrats pulled republican ballots to screw over Mitt. Santorum won with 52% of the vote statewide, also winning in every county. Santorum did get screwed in the delegate distribution, 7 to 12. Go figure.This ain’t 2012 – there’s an actual Democratic party primary contest so crossover voting ain’t gonna happen in any significant numbers. No recent polling, but right now I’d guess that Mitt Romney loses again.
OzarkHillbilly
@japa21: We definitely look down our noses at Kansas…. for the moment. The GOP is doing their best to make us just like Kansas, and if we elect a GOP gov we will be.
O. Felix Culpa
@raven: Perhaps I don’t get out enough, but who is Pat Lang?
Goblue72
@maye: They voted Democrat. Then Bill Clinton pushed NAFTA and gave all their jobs away. And then pushed Gramm-Leach-Bliley through and handed the economy over to the gamblers on Wall Street.
They gave Obama a chance and he walked away from card check his first week in office and pushed TPP until a grassroots backlash from activists in his own party stopped it.
This isn’t hard. Voters do pay attention. If you don’t like abortion, are uncomfortable with immigration, and want a factory job – you’ll vote for the team that at least gives you some of those things, instead of none.
Linda Featheringill
The people of the Rust Belt fell victim to World Capitalism, where all businesses are connected and workers are interchangable parts.
The people in that area could move, but to where? On an individual basis, Minneapolis would be an option but I don’t know how many job seekers that area can absorb. They shouldn’t move to Mexico because a large part of those jobs have already moved on to other and cheaper areas. They could move to the Phillipines I guess but if they aren’t already Muslim [and the right kind of Muslim] that wouldn’t be a good idea.
To quote Bob Sieger, “There ain’t nothing you can do.”
Edited.
BGinCHI
@maye: Because white people have gone fucking crazy.
Item: Rauner, Walker, Pence, Kasich, et al.
Linnaeus
@maye:
New industry and new jobs have been probably the paramount political issue in those states (or, at least the one that I grew up in) for years.
But the loss of those older industries has eroded the tax base of those states and also weakened the institutions that had been crucial for electing people who would improve the economic situation of those states. That’s a hard obstacle to overcome, and it’s not like they’re not trying.
Calouste
@feebog: Winner takes all by congressional district turns into winner takes all if the margin is large enough. Trump won by 10% in South Carolina (which was WTABCD) and got all 50 delegates. If he had won by 5%, he would have won 44 of them.
I agree that the Republican nomination contest is a hot mess. There are barely two states that have the same rules, and some states’ rules aren’t even internally consistent (nothing new for Republicans there).
It’s going to be a drawn out process though. Trump can’t possibly get a majority until 4/26, and most likely the contest will last all the way until the last primaries on 6/7. Trump would need to win more than 76% of the remaining delegates to win before that time.
? Martin
The GOP is calling in the billionaires, completely missing the point of why Donald Trump is winning.
I doubt this internal reflection came from the party. I suspect it came from those tech billionaires telling the GOP how they are fucking up.
shortstop
Illinois is only WTA for statewide delegates. Otherwise, I’m with ya.
OzarkHillbilly
@Michael Bersin: I was thinking about crossing over but things are too unsettled yet on this side of the fence.
maye
@NonyNony: And in fact the most successful technology centers are located in places with the highest taxes and regulations.
Calouste
@Linda Featheringill: The vast majority of the Philippines are Catholic, you ignorant bigot.
mistermix
@shortstop: Thanks, updated the post. Too bad for Trump that they are not pure WTAs.
O. Felix Culpa
@Linda Featheringill: It’s not just Rustbelt jobs that are being affected anymore. White collar skills are being outsourced too: accounting, payroll, technical writing, basic legal stuff such as document review, IT support, etc. Not necessarily due to trade agreements, but definitely stemming from capital seeking lower costs, higher returns.
As Obama pointed out in a fairly recent town hall, the entire structure of employment in the U.S. is changing. Despite being bright, educated, and hard-working, my young adult children have much lesser prospects than I did at their age. I have yet to hear good (or even minimally adequate) solutions to this problem.
Calouste
@maye: Bringing new industry would require a federal investment, the states can’t do that on their own. And how much support do you think there is going to be for that from the right-to-get-fired states that stole a lot of the car industry from the Mid-West?
Even in Europe, where they pay more attention to these king of things, unemployment is still higher in areas where they closed the coal mines decades ago.
EconWatcher
I read that David Brooks column earlier today. As I understood it, he’s writing off the 2016 election as already lost to Hillary, and views the anti-Trump movement as a battle for the future soul of the Republican Party.
Sorry, David. That train left the station a while ago, too.
Linnaeus
@Calouste:
Yes, and states can only do so much when there are such powerful incentives to pit states against each other.
Amir Khalid
@Calouste:
The Muslim parts of the Phillippines are down south around Mindanao and Sulu, a relatively short sea journey from Borneo, but to my knowledge that’s not where its industrial base is.
quakerinabasement
“In the lead” won’t get you a cup of coffee at the convention. Fifty percent plus one or Katy bar the door.
joel hanes
@maye:
But what about technology, clean energy, and green innovative industry?
Those are human-capital industries, requiring an educated workforce.
If the rustbelt states invested heavily in subsidizing tuition at their state universities, particularly the engineering schools, and invested even more heavily in making those schools outstanding in the national rankings, in twenty years or so they’d have a shot at turning this around. But at the same time, they’d need to invest in making their core cities once again decent places to live, places that someone who has other choices might choose.
Republicans control these states, and Republicans currently don’t do public education, nor investment in the infrastructure of a liveable city, nor indeed any action by government to secure or increase the common good.
Further sinking predicted.
Iowa Old Lady
@joel hanes: The University of Michigan is highly ranked. I’m worried about Wisconsin gutting its higher ed.
ThresherK (GPad)
@Linnaeus: And it’s really difficult to out-hoor Texas on that front.
Karen
@? Martin: Some Dems were at this gathering as well. Don’t ask me why.
shortstop
@mistermix: It may end up being a distinction without much difference. Although there’s been a big push for Kasich in Cook County and the collar counties, Trump is likely to win most districts, especially downstate.
I can’t believe I just typed that matter-of-factly, like it’s normal life and not the American apocalypse.
Karen
I’ve read that Marco’s aides are trying to talk him into dropping out but if he can’t win his own home state then he should see the writing on the wall. He kind of screwed the pooch there. Ted Cruz opened some offices in Florida, I think Trump did as well.
? Martin
@maye:
The problem is that the short and long term incentives are at odds with each other. States/cities keep promising lower taxes and other development credits to get jobs, but that’s not really what successful businesses with good jobs are looking for. If your solution is cost cutting, then it’s only going to be attractive to companies/jobs that are non-value-add – cost centers where cost cutting is the point, and that will apply to wages and therefore to skills as well.
California has a high standard of living and relatively high taxes but still attracts a lot of big companies. The value proposition was ‘we have the best higher education in the country, we have the most talented workers’. Now, that’s been undermined in a fit of anti-tax backlash, but it still largely holds true. The reason why companies relocate to CA isn’t to save on taxes, but to find workers and a culture that will allow them to grow their business, places where workers want to live so they will be retained, and where the most talented workers can be found. That requires a lot of investment by states, which isn’t happening, frankly, anywhere.
Companies don’t grow by cost cutting. They cost cut when they are failing and cost cutting is a sign of decline. Rather than undermine their own tax bases with tax giveaways, states and cities should be investing in education and quality of life. It takes a long time, but you can focus on a specific area and work out.
Brachiator
The news this morning was all about how an anti-Trump SuperPAC is flooding Florida with ads about how Trump is a bad man who uses dirty words.
Some political consultants are cashing in big time on these GOP suckers.
? Martin
@Karen: Most of those tech billionaires are pretty liberal – being the one politician in the room who isn’t looking at the gay CEO as the downfall of US civilization probably pays off eventually.
raven
@O. Felix Culpa: Sic Semper Tyrannis blogmaster.
shortstop
@Brachiator: And those donors will get about as much ROI as the people handing over forklifts full of cash to Rove in 2012 did.
SiubhanDuinne
@Calouste:
It’s quite possible to point out a factual error without using personal invective.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Oh, Democrats. This is one of the reasons we can’t have nice things
Second verse, same as the first. Misguided, post-partisan high-mindedness.
Brachiator
@? Martin:
This used to be the case, but increasingly is not true of California anymore, with the exception of the Northern California tech industry and some parts of the entertainment industry.
In January 2016, nonfarm payroll lost 1,500 jobs. The largest gains were in educational and health services, leisure and hospitality and information. The losers were professional and business services, financial activities and other services.
Rents continue to climb and workers have trouble finding jobs near where they work, or where they used to work.
Calouste
@SiubhanDuinne: You don’t think this is bigoted: “I guess but if they aren’t already Muslim [and the right kind of Muslim] that wouldn’t be a good idea” ?
Besides of course saying that about a country where only about 5% of the population is Muslim, which is about the same as Switzerland.
O. Felix Culpa
@raven: Thanks. :)
shortstop
PEOPLE! One L, two Ps (not counting the first letter)!
The Concerned Filipinos/as of America thank you.
Ileyres
What’s the deal with Kasich, anyway? Allegedly, OH’s a lock for him, but so far he’s tanked in the border states (TN and KY).
cokane
you’re confusing brooks with kristol. trump is definitely the front runner, but i definitely think it’s looking hard to see him winning enough delegates pre convention to have the thing outright. i don’t know if that counts as stopping him. shit, even Cruz is going to be a godawful general election candidate. let the clowns burn the circus to the ground.
SiubhanDuinne
@Calouste:
I found that a little puzzling, with perhaps just a touch of ironic intent — and I’ve already said I agree with you about the factual error (I’m guessing she may have been thinking “Indonesia” even as her fingers typed “Philippines,” but of course I cannot know) — but my point is that name-calling is probably not the most effective way of making a correction or asking for clarification.
Stan
@maye: Visit Pittsburgh PA and you will see exactly what you’re talking about. And their population is growing again.
Sad_Dem
@BGinCHI:
That’s what is going on here.
Elie
@maye:
THIS. Excellent comment
chopper
@shortstop:
when i first read this i thought you were trying to tell us how to spell “people”.
Elie
@? Martin:
In response to Maye’s comment — I think this is right on… Now to convince our states and even the two parties that this must be done….
Jim, Foolish Literalist
To paraphrase SNL’s Mitt Romney last week, we don’t announce we’re going to bully a candidate we can’t even name yet, we wait till the candidate is nominated then pretend we’re motivated by pure outrage!
Linnaeus
@Elie:
Thing is, these states also have long time commitments that they have to find ways to fulfill if they want to improve quality of life, and that makes for some very hard choices.
So your hypothetical progressive state legislator gets into office and the first thing she does is author a bill for greater subsidies for the state university. Great, but then her more moderate colleague, whose vote she needs, says, “I’m all for this, but my constituents won’t abide a tax increase. Can we cut something from this disability aid program?” Or he gets a call from a voter who says, “Hey, me and my neighbors all turned out for you last November, but the plant just closed and we’re out of work.” Not a great situation to be in, especially if you don’t have the resources that you once did.
Joel
@maye: that’s basically what happened in Pittsburgh. The air is a lot cleaner, too.
Brachiator
@raven:
Who’s Pat Lang?
Tripod
@Joel:
The good old days were a Stygian nightmare.
Brachiator
@O. Felix Culpa:
Also, technology makes it easier to scale down, eliminate, or transfer these jobs.
Joel
@? Martin: California also has the best climate in the country. Or at least did. Ohio will never have something comparable.
Joel
@Brachiator: the taxes aren’t the problem in California — the property values are. Cities like Los Angeles and especially San Fransisco need to build up and they needed to do this decades ago.
feebog
@Calouste:
Which would actually make California relevant for once. I am rooting for lil’ Marco to squeak out a win in Florida and for Kaisch to win Ohio. That will make it more likely that Trump falls short of the magic 1237 and we get a blood in the streets contested convention.
Eric S.
I had some thoughts of crossing over to do some rodent fornicating in the Illinois GOP primary then I reminded myself that I need a Democratic ballot to vote against Anita Alvarez.
shortstop
@Eric S.: Yeah, don’t give up your vote when we have work of our own to do.
Eric S.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
That sounds like Cornyn trying to scare away any potential nominee. Without a nominee the Senate doesn’t have to justify their refusal to do their job during election season. I admit it is probably a suicide mission to be the nominee but I have to think there are qualified people willing.
jonas
@NonyNony: If low taxes and lax regulation were the keys to attracting business, then Louisiana would be booming. Instead, that stuff happens in place like San Jose, Portland, Seattle, New York City, and Minneapolis — and to a lesser extent in progressive enclaves in red states like San Antonio, Salt Lake City, and Raleigh-Durham. You need a combination of an educated workforce (and an educational system that educated people want to send their kids to), progressive culture, good infrastructure, access to markets/industry networks, and lastly a favorable business environment (taxes, incentives, etc.).
What we see instead in a lot of Rust Belt states is a race for the bottom where states and municipalities all clamor to eliminate taxes for businesses, postpone or forego any substantial infrastructure and educational investment, and leave the few remaining homeowners with the task of financing everything with property taxes.
daverave
@Corner Stone:
So were Manning’s, at least for the last 7 years or so, IMHO.
geg6
@Joel:
Exactly. If more Rust Belt cities did what we did over the last twenty or so painful years, they’d be seeing the same payoff and growth we’re seeing here in Pittsburgh. Masloff and Murphy don’t get enough credit for how they steered the city through bad times and set it up for today’s success. Two strong Democrats, by the way.
Yutsano
@chopper: Yeah that took me a second too. And shame on me for not noticing the other typos.
SuzieC
@geg6:
Strong Democrats in my Rust Belt city as well (Columbus), which is bustling and thriving.
Rand Careaga
@Joel:
I’m typing this from downtown San Francisco, where I’ve worked for almost forty years, and I can assure you that a considerable amount of “building up” has gone on here during that time, and continues to do so. I rather miss the more modest skyline the city had when I first started spending time here in the early seventies.
No One You Know
@Calouste: I think it’s more about assuming positive intent. Especially of a long-time poster without a track record for what you’re accusing.