Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

How can republicans represent us when they don’t trust women?

The most dangerous place for a black man in America is in a white man’s imagination.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

It could be worse. Vance could have said “post-menopausal sows.” Waiting for that audiotape to surface.

Washington Post’s Catch and Kill, not noticeably better than the Enquirer’s.

If you still can’t see these things even now, maybe politics isn’t your forte and you should stop writing about it.

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

Take hopelessness and turn it into resilience.

The choice is between normal and crazy.

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

If you are in line to indict donald trump, stay in line.

Republicans: slavery is when you own me. freedom is when I own you.

I’m sure you banged some questionable people yourself. We’re allowed to grow past that.

This blog will pay for itself.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

This isn’t Democrats spending madly. This is government catching up.

Roe isn’t about choice, it’s about freedom.

Republicans do not pay their debts.

Trump makes a mockery of the legal system and cowardly judges just sit back and let him.

Conservatism: there are people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

Oppose, oppose, oppose. Do not congratulate. This is not business as usual.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

One of our two political parties is a cult whose leader admires Vladimir Putin.

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Reader Interactions

209Comments

  3. 3.

    PsiFighter37

    Bernie could regain some positive media coverage if he pulls off Michigan. However, the delegate math still looks tough. It is mildly disheartening, though, to see that the votes for the last 2 competitive Democratic primaries are becoming so easy to predict based on demographics. On the other hand, I am glad that the Democratic choices (in the end) are reflective of a diverse coalition of voters.

  4. 4.

    raven

    @Baud:

    HARRY ENTEN 9:33 PM
    I’m looking on the Wayne County clerk’s website to try to get an idea of where the vote is being reported from in Wayne County. It seems, at least as of earlier this hour, that Detroit was at 0 percent. The nearly uniformly white areas of Grosse Pointe Shores and Plymouth were at 100 percent. In other words, the percentages coming out of Wayne County right now don’t really reflect how black areas are voting.

  8. 8.

    Anne Laurie

    Yeah, too soon to panic, Hillniacs —

    Detroit / Wayne county votes not yet being reported. That’s where the most African-American votes are.

  9. 9.

    dr. bloor

    @PsiFighter37:

    On the other hand, I am glad that the Democratic choices (in the end) are reflective of a diverse coalition of voters.

    That “coalition” thing is no small detail, and is going to take some work once the dust settles.

  10. 10.

    chopper

    @PsiFighter37:

    yeah, it looks like they’ll split michigans delegates pretty close to even while hilz is gonna walk away with most all of mississippi’s. her lead’s gonna widen after tonight.

  11. 11.

    scottinnj

    The only hope for America is that Daenerys Targaryen returns with her dragons and burns the whole thing down.

  14. 14.

    I Am Not Jon Snow

    Wow. The new season of House of Cards is amazing. The Trump character just won the Michigan primary, and now he’s giving this bizarre press conference where he’s hawking products; it’s like something you’d see on QVC. Trump steaks, water, wine. Incredible.

  15. 15.

    jl

    @Baud:

    ” Hillary is suffering from the John Cole anti-bump. ”

    We all need to bookmark that Cole HRC endorsement, so whatever happens, if it’s bad, we can blame Cole.

    Or was it a kinda-sorta semi-endorsement based on how he is feeling about it right now? Whatever, it was a crucial critical juncture.

  17. 17.

    Beatrice

    If Trump wins the nomination, do you think someone will eventually explain the concept of “a speech” to him?

  18. 18.

    Ultraviolet Thunder

    Interesting that most of Cruz’s MI counties are on the west coast. That’s the area that’s most deeply conservative/religious. Christian Reformed Church is big there and almost nowhere else.

  21. 21.

    TheBuhJaysus

    Trump press conference is fantasyland.
    He’s bleeding on about being the most conservative candidate. I should be unnerved, but it’s fascinating…

  24. 24.

    Mnemosyne

    You’re missing the conservatroll’s meltdown in Betty’s thread below. It’s something to behold. Trump’s press conference seems to be causing actual physical pain, and yet it’s all the fault of the liberal media.

    Stealing from chopper in that same thread, the troll’s tears are even sweeter than I thought they would be.

  27. 27.

    TheBuhJaysus

    @jl:

    I think it should be done in TrumpTweetStyle…

    Wee-little Marco. 4th place. #Loser!!!

  28. 28.

    dmsilev

    @TheBuhJaysus: But, but, our pet troll *promised* that the Hedge Fund Boys(tm) would destroy Trump and elevate Rubio. Could he, gasp, be wrong?

  29. 29.

    Kay

    @WarMunchkin:

    This is interesting:

    With 43% of precincts reporting, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton 63-36 in Dearborn, home of largest pop. of Arab Americans.

  31. 31.

    Hal

    @Beatrice:

    If Trump wins the nomination, do you think someone will eventually explain the concept of “a speech” to him?

    You mean vaguely complaining about John Oliver’s piece on him isn’t standard in a speech by a winner? I guess Trump forgot he’s not supposed to know who John Oliver even is.

  34. 34.

    PsiFighter37

    If Hillary doesn’t start racking it up in Wayne County, she’s going to lose the state.

    I wonder what have happened to the youth of this country. When Obama ran 8 years ago (and I was still in school), there was a lot of rational, inspirational hope. Sanders is running on a completely different energy, one that seems to emanate from the hopelessness / despair of young people. But it leads to things like fact/numbers-free support for free college. If any candidate had said they supported that in the last 5-10 years, they would have been called a liar or asked for hard evidence of how to even provide it.

  36. 36.

    Ready

    Megan McArdle said on Twitter that she’s never seen such a “display of desperate neediness” from a man until this Trump speech.

  39. 39.

    I Am Not Jon Snow

    Seriously, Trump needs to come up with a better insult for Ted Cruz. Lyin’ Ted doesn’t quite work. It’s not as good as “Little Marco” or “Low Energy Jeb.” Not up to his usual standards.

  40. 40.

    Jasmine Bleach

    @chopper:

    yeah, it looks like they’ll split michigans delegates pretty close to even while hilz is gonna walk away with most all of mississippi’s. her lead’s gonna widen after tonight.

    Yeah, but she was expected to walk away with this one. Today, and March 15. Then a lot is Bernie country.

    If he actually *wins* Michigan, when the average of polls had him down in Michigan by 18 points, that’s absolutely huge.

  41. 41.

    WarMunchkin

    @Kay: Brown guy here, and while I can’t speak for all of my skin tone, I’d wager her hawkish essential might have made an impact on at least one demo. Also, do you have an off-blog hotline where I can ask you about state level stuff?

    @PsiFighter37:
    Youth here (pronounced like yow). Jobs, we didn’t have them. One lost decade later, we mad at banks. SATSQ.

  45. 45.

    Anya

    @Ready: First time ever I’ve agreed with her.

    The whole thing was surreal, a tacky infomercial for Trump products. My grandmother looked at the t.v. and muttered: “unseemly”

  46. 46.

    PsiFighter37

    Gap just narrowed a bunch in Michigan – Wayne County now at 60% for Clinton. Imagine we are now getting AA precincts.

  47. 47.

    CaseyL

    Well, Wayne County results are finally coming in and Sanders’ lead is slipping.

    ETA: Psifighter37 must’ve hit refresh before I did.

  50. 50.

    Anya

    @SuzieC: For sure but they are hoping Bernie wins. I’ve noticed the same thing with my Somali cousins and their friends. They’re all feeling the burn because they see Hillary as AIPAC’s candidate.

  51. 51.

    Kay

    @WarMunchkin:

    Also, do you have an off-blog hotline where I can ask you about state level stuff?

    No, but you can email me at the BJ address. I check it infrequently but I’ll look for your email.

    kaywilliams25 at gmail.com

  53. 53.

    p.a.

    fact/numbers-free support for free college.

    It has to be conceived of before it can be attained. #gobigorgohome #wewantourownrealitytoo

  58. 58.

    Splitting Image

    It looks like the pattern we’ve seen before is repeating. Sanders is doing well enough to justify continuing his campaign, but not well enough to close the gap in delegates. If Sanders holds on to the lead he’s got in Michigan, Clinton still probably wins the night by getting more delegates from Mississippi.

    Tonight was probably the last shot the G.O.P. had at stopping Trump. They didn’t do it. None of the other candidates will have any momentum going into the winner-take-all states next week, and Trump will likely win most of them.

    Not a fan of Trump, but I’ll give him this: the man almost single-handedly ended the political careers of the G.O.P.’s entire “deep bench”. During 2009-10, it seemed like the TV bobbleheads were anointing a dozen different guys as slam-dunk Presidential candidates for 2016. Christie, Rubio, Kasich, Rand Paul and Scott Walker were all promoted as blue-chippers the day they got elected. Now they’re all has-beens. Cruz will be joining them shortly. I have to give Trump credit for that.

    I don’t see how he beats Clinton though. Trump had better enjoy basking in the glow of the convention, because I suspect it will be downhill for him from there.

  59. 59.

    Anoniminous

    @WarMunchkin:

    One lost decade later, we mad at banks.

    Good. Now need to get active in the local and state party and start voting in the off-year and non-presidential year elections if anything is going to change.

  60. 60.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @Splitting Image:

    Christie, Rubio, Kasich, Rand Paul and Scott Walker were all promoted as blue-chippers the day they got elected.

    Bear in mind, we’ve been laughing at these guys as pathetic for ages. It’s true, Trump is a phenomenon that is devastating traditional GOP power dynamics, but part of the mess is that the GOP’s ‘deep bench’ consists of losers who wouldn’t even be write-ins most years.

  62. 62.

    TheBuhJaysus

    @I Am Not Jon Snow:

    Actually, Trump keeps calling him “nasty.”

    That works pretty well.

    “The Nasty Guy says he’s the only one who can beat me.”

    That or Creepy Ted.

    People will think twice about voting for the Nasty Creep.

  63. 63.

    Anoniminous

    @p.a.:

    Yup, but they aren’t running in the Democratic Party primary in Michigan tonight, Clinton is.

  64. 64.

    chopper

    @Jasmine Bleach:

    in order for Bernie to make up for the delegate deficit he’d have to win pretty much every state after 3/15 by a pretty good margin. is that your prediction?

  65. 65.

    Jasmine Bleach

    @Technocrat:

    Michigan is down to 0.5%

    What a squeaker

    Where are you looking? New York Times has him up by 2.0% with 51% reporting.

  67. 67.

    Ultraviolet Thunder

    @Jasmine Bleach:

    Where are you looking? New York Times has him up by 2.0% with 51% reporting.

    That was brief. Then a bunch of Wayne County precincts came in for Bernie and it was +2%.

  68. 68.

    Betty Cracker

    Good speech by Hillz — “love and kindness instead of bluster and bigotry.”

    Wow, Bernie is doing so well in Michigan! Even if HRC squeaks out a win, Bernie has to be pleased with his showing.

  70. 70.

    PaulWartenberg2016

    Dear Democrats across America:

    I know this is a horse race of sorts, you want “your candidate” to win out and smite all enemies, but try to recognize you’re still a party of hope and sanity. When this is all done, you’ve got to unite as one party to stop the sh-tstorm of a Trump candidacy. THE FATE OF THE ENTIRE PLANET DEPENDS ON IT AND I AM NOT JOKING.

  72. 72.

    Llelldorin

    I have to say that I’m not even slightly sad that the close, exciting race is on our side of things. It’s keeping the media tonight from just sinking into Trumpgasm, leaving us with something on the order of, “oh, and Clinton won too, of course.”

  74. 74.

    Anoniminous

    AP has:

    Bernie Sanders 50.3% 307,106
    Hillary Clinton 47.9% 296,176

    or a ~11,000 vote difference, which is nothing with only 53% reporting

  76. 76.

    Anya

    Hillary is not getting a high AA vote like in the south. I think that’s helping Sanders and not the mythical Reagan Democrats.

  77. 77.

    Jasmine Bleach

    Yeah, a about 15 minutes ago, about 130 precincts came in from Wayne Co (Detroit, basically), and whereas the first 320 or so precincts had Sanders down by 5% in that county, with those 130, suddenly he was down 30%. Another 40 or so have come in since then and Sanders has risen. Half the county has now reported with 499 precincts (of 999) in.

    A lot will depend on how many of those remaining 500 are in the “Bernie losing by 30%” category.

  78. 78.

    Mnemosyne

    @Betty Cracker:

    Personally, I’d be perfectly happy if Bernie keeps chugging along until at least June, as long as the partisans can keep their shit together and not freak out about conspiracies ruining their candidate. I think it’s good for Democrats to demonstrate in front of the whole country that we have two full-grown adults running who actually understand stuff like policy and how the government works.

    What some of the more hysterical Bernistas don’t seem to understand is that if Bernie can stay close for a while longer, he can negotiate stuff like the party platform or appointees he’d like to see even if he doesn’t win. Hillary getting more delegates does not automatically mean that Bernie has no influence on how the general election goes … assuming he’s willing to play the game, of course.

  79. 79.

    LAC

    Jesus Christ, when am I going to see more folks of color and gender on fucking MSNBC? Rachel maddow and Eugene Robinson is not cutting it.

  80. 80.

    Betty Cracker

    Bernie’s hanging onto that lead with 71% in — damn, he might pull this upset off!

  81. 81.

    jl

    @Mnemosyne: Sanders better damn well keep his word stay in until California and run a real campaign. Otherwise the GOPers here will dominate our June primary, and CA GOPers are just as nuts as GOPers in other places in the country.

  82. 82.

    Jasmine Bleach

    Still a lot of Detroit left to come in, but about 700 precincts left in Bernie-friendly areas in the southern part of the state.

    might come down to population more than anything else.

  83. 83.

    jl

    @Betty Cracker: The Sanders campaign is a very long shot. Sanders says reminds his fans of that on a regular basis. So, over next month he can get OH and WI. Maybe he can pull of an MI upset in NC? Otherwise he has to chip away at HRC’s lead in close losses and hope to sway some super delegates.

  84. 84.

    Anoniminous

    @Mnemosyne:

    Bernie has been in politics since the 1960s. He’s been a mayor, a Congressional Representative, and a Senator. I think it is safe to say he knows how to play the game. This primary shows he knows how to motivate people.

    The combination could be deadly to the GOP this year.

  86. 86.

    Jasmine Bleach

    31 more Wayne Co. precincts in, and Bernie is only increasing his lead overall.

  90. 90.

    jl

    @Anoniminous:

    ” The combination could be deadly to the GOP this year. ”

    The Fox HRC/Sanders townhall started out as a scheme to put on a Sanders/Trump debate. Bernie was ready to go, but Trump backed out. I like Sanders slightly more than HRC, but I think she is a better debater.

    So, I enjoyed reading that news.

  91. 91.

    Betty Cracker

    Maddow deserves a lot of credit for covering the bullshit “emergency manager” takeover in Michigan and the resulting mess in Flint.

    Ugh — Andrea Mitchell! Go away!

  92. 92.

    Scotian

    I think there is a very simple explanation for why the media polls appeared so wrong. As I understand it the polls were polling likely Dem voters, and she was winning Dem voters according to the exit polls CNN mentioned early on (and only the once as far as I’ve noticed) by 12 points, which would be well in range to what the media polls were calling it as. The question I keep wondering though is how many of those independents were truly Bernie supporters and how many were those wanting to defeat Clinton now so their GOP candidate has a chance in the fall given how crazy things are on that side of the street. I think Michigan will be down to the wire, and whomever wins will be by a handful of percentage points whichever one it is, and at this point I would have to say Sanders seems to be the more probable. However, Sanders also dumped a LOT of resources into this State to get this result, and I have to wonder how much he can replicate this going forward.

  95. 95.

    pseudonymous in nc

    @I Am Not Jon Snow:

    Seriously, Trump needs to come up with a better insult for Ted Cruz.

    Teddy Munster. Teddy Canada. Teddy Bore. All of these are © me so if El Trumpador uses them please alert my lawyers. I grant Baud an unlimited license.

  97. 97.

    Anoniminous

    @LAC:

    When hell freezes over.

    The corporate shits won’t do it. We need our own mass media and news organizations.

    (Anoniminous +3 and starting to sing Chumbawamba)

  98. 98.

    Bob In Portland

    @jl: What usually causes candidates to drop out is that the donors stop financing, you’ve got to lay off lots of staff, you can’t run big ad blocs. With all the money Sanders is getting from the little folks he can pretty much stay in the race as long as he wants. And since the West Coast is leaning left I expect him to hang in there.

  101. 101.

    PsiFighter37

    Bernie leads by 25,000 votes. Seems like a relatively big number to overcome.

    Still mystified in what people see in a guy who has been in government for 35+ years and done nothing notable and has no depth / understanding on foreign policy.

  102. 102.

    Eolirin

    Bernie isn’t going to win Michigan by enough to matter, if he even wins. It’s essentially tied, so it’s going to basically be a wash delegate wise. Mississippi was a massive loss for Sanders, so tonight is a straight win for Hillary.

    Bernie can’t actually win by outperforming expectations but still failing to net delegates. This just drags the nomination out, it doesn’t provide a path to victory.

  103. 103.

    hueyplong

    @Scotian:

    Even if Bernie did have to go all asymmetrical in Michigan, you’ve got to say it was a good move.

    And I’m not well suited to complain about crossover voters, having just done it myself to vote against Trump in NC.

  104. 104.

    Betty Cracker

    @jl: Yeah, I don’t think he’ll win the nomination. But he’s keeping it interesting!

  106. 106.

    jl

    @pseudonymous in nc: I like Teddy Canada. The Canadian Cruz sounds good to me too.

    Except Canada might be so pissed if we keep identifying Cruz with them that they might declare war and invade.

  107. 107.

    PsiFighter37

    @Scotian: He has the money. My sense is that when there are not multiple primaries occurring, his campaign can focus their firepower enough to start making up their deficits.

    However, they were unable to do so on Super Tuesday, and they fell behind by too much. Basically, they are following the Obama playbook circa 2008, but they fell in a big hole there (whereas Obama basically tied on Super Tuesday). Without any minority support, Sanders’ wins will be narrower than Obama’s blowouts in February 2008, and he is getting wiped out in the majority-minority states that went for Obama in 2008.

  108. 108.

    Kay

    @Bob In Portland:

    What may be more important is he’s showing Democrats they can run without big donors. He has raised an amazing amount of money.

    (Other than labor unions, which are his big donors the last time I checked)

  111. 111.

    different-church-lady

    @Redshift:

    I’m pretty sure the Dems don’t do winner take all.

    Hell, sometimes Dems don’t do winner take anything.

  112. 112.

    Mnemosyne

    @jl:

    CA GOPers are just as nuts as GOPers in other places in the country.

    I’ve gotta disagree with you a bit — I think our CA GOPers are even nuttier than in other places. They just don’t get as much press since they’re out of power. The sanest Republican they were able to put up against Jerry Brown was firing off an automatic rifle in his campaign commercials, FFS. He was the least crazy one!

  114. 114.

    Anoniminous

    @jl:

    Clinton and Sanders are different styles of debaters. As I wrote … last week? … go to Brooklyn NY on any Sunday and you’ll find older Jewish men debating Torah “Sanders-style.” Clinton is more NorthEast Woman’s College and that is NOT a put-down.

    Either one would rip Trump into itsy-bitsy little pieces which is why the cowardly son-of-a-bitch ran away.

  116. 116.

    PsiFighter37

    I will say that the one thing the Sanders supporters stubbornly like to ignore is the math. Pretty much a slightly more virulent, non-reality-based version of the Clinton supporters in 2008.

    That said, the media will surely abet a Bernie comeback story if he pulls out Michigan, even if by a slim margin.

  117. 117.

    magurakurin

    @PaulWartenberg2016: Amen to that. If Sanders pulls out a miracle, I’ll be backing him 1000 percent. I’m pulling for Clinton, but in the end the only thing that matters is that either Sanders or Clinton become president. Everything else is just bullshit debate points.

    Fuck that noise about voting third party, staying home or any other bullshit. Vote for the winner of the primary. full. stop.

  118. 118.

    jl

    @Baud: HRC claims she has discovered the wonder of small donors. If she is interested in really exploring that route, she might be able to find out.

  121. 121.

    Kay

    @Baud:

    Yeah, he has. He seems to have plenty of money. I see plenty of ads.

    Democrats in Congress are already looking at how he did it. There was a story in Politico. They say they hate fundraising. They spend something like a quarter of their time on it, making calls. It would make a huge difference if they didn’t have to depend on big donors.

  124. 124.

    Anoniminous

    @Baud:

    Proportional. Democratic Party has a godawful delegate allocation formula that passes normal human understanding. To wit:

    Bonus delegates are awarded to

    Jurisdictions holding their First Determining Step (start their delegate allocation process) later in the cycle and
    Neighboring jurisdictions who concurrently begin their process, a.k.a. clustering.

    The bonus is awarded as a percentage of the pledged delegate base allocation in additional district and at-large delegates. The bonus does NOT apply to unpledged delegates.

    The Presidential nomination cycle is divided into several stages:

    The pre-window begins with Iowa (no earlier than 1 February 2016 [Rule 11A]), New Hampshire (no earlier than 9 February 2016 [Rule 11A]), Nevada (no earlier than 20 February 2016 [Rule 11A]), and South Carolina (no earlier than 27 February 2016 [Rule 11A]).
    Stage I begins on 1 March 2016 [Rule 11A.] and runs through 31 March [Call Article C.1.]. No “late start” bonuses are associated with these dates.
    Stage II runs from 1 through 30 April 2016 [Call Article C.1.]. States beginning their process during this period receive a 10% bonus to the base allocation split between the district and at-large delegates [Call Article C.2.a.].
    Stage III runs from 1 May through 14 June 2016 [Call Article C.1.]. States beginning their process during this period receive a 20% bonus to the base allocation split between the district and at-large delegates [Call Article C.2.a.].
    Beginning on the 4th Tuesday in March, Tuesday 22 March 2016 [Call Article C.2.c.], a 15% bonus to the base delegate allocation is awarded when clusters of 3 or more neighboring states begin on the same date. For jurisdictions with electoral votes, Puerto Rico, and Democrats Abroad, the bonus is applied as district and At-large delegates. For American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the Virgin Islands the bonus is applied as At-Large delegates since these jurisdictions have no district delegates. [Article I.C.2.b.i]
    Maine is considered a neighboring state of Vermont and Massachusetts. [Reg 5.1.A Article I.C.2.b]
    Alaska and Hawaii are considered neighboring states of Washington and Oregon. [Reg 5.1.B Article I.C.2.b]
    American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands are considered neighboring states of each other. [Reg 5.1.C Article I.C.2.b]

    The bonus is computed as (Base × percentage) then rounded to the nearest whole number.

    Example: If a state has 10 Base Votes and receives a Stage 3 bonus (20%) and a Cluster bonus (15%), the state would receive a 35% bonus– 4 additional delegate votes.

    District and At-Large Bonus = round(10 base votes × 0.35)
    = round(3.5)
    = 4

    Splitting bonus delegates between the District and At-Large categories.

    The Bonus for At-Large Delegate Votes = Bonus × 0.25. Fractions 0.5 and above are rounded to the next highest integer. Should the rounding result in 0, set the Bonus for At-Large Delegate Votes to 1.
    The bonus for District Delegate Votes = Bonus – Bonus for At-Large Delegate Votes. Hence, the rounding favors the statewide At-Large allocation.
    There may be exceptions to the above– in 2008, South Dakota’s bonus delegate was awarded as a District rather than an At-Large delegate. In 2012, Kentucky’s 10 bonus delegates were awarded as 8 District and 2 At-Large rather than 7 District and 3 At-Large. Rhode Island’s 6 bonus delegates were awarded as 5 District and 1 At-Large rather than 4 District and 2 At-Large. Oregon’s 10 bonus delegates are awarded as 8 District and 2 At-Large rather than 7 District and 3 At-Large.

    [Reference: 2012 Call for the Democratic National Convention: I. C. 2.]
    Rule 20.C.1. – Sanctions

    If a jurisdiction begins their delegate selection process before the “window”, that jurisdiction’s pledged delegate allocation is reduced by 50% and their unpledged delegates are not allowed to vote at the National Convention.

    If a candidate campaigns in violation of the “window” that candidate may receive neither pledged delegates nor delegate votes from the state where the violation occurred.

    Text of Rule 20.C.1.

    a. Violation of timing: In the event the Delegate Selection Plan of a state party provides or permits a meeting, caucus, convention or primary which constitutes the first determining stage in the presidential nominating process to be held prior to or after the dates for the state as provided in Rule 11 of these rules, or in the event a state holds such a meeting, caucus, convention or primary prior to or after such dates, the number of pledged delegates elected in each category allocated to the state pursuant to the Call for the National Convention shall be reduced by fifty (50%) percent, and the number of alternates shall also be reduced by fifty (50%) percent. In addition, none of the members of the Democratic National Committee and no other unpledged delegate allocated pursuant to Rule 9.A. from that state shall be permitted to vote as members of the state’s delegation. In determining the actual number of delegates or alternates by which the state’s delegation is to be reduced, any fraction below .5 shall be rounded down to the nearest whole number, and any fraction of .5 or greater shall be rounded up to the next nearest whole number.
    b. A presidential candidate who campaigns in a state where the state party is in violation of the timing provisions of these rules, or where a primary or caucus is set by a state’s government on a date that violates the timing provisions of these rules, may not receive pledged delegates or delegate votes from that state. Candidates may, however, campaign in such a state after the primary or caucus that violates these rules. “Campaigning” for purposes of this section includes, but is not limited to, purchasing print, internet, or electronic advertising that reaches a significant 1 percentage of the voters in the aforementioned state; hiring campaign workers; opening an office; making public appearances; holding news conferences; coordinating volunteer activities; sending mail, other than fundraising requests that are also sent to potential donors in other states; using paid or volunteer phones or automated calls to contact voters; sending emails or establishing a website specific to that state; holding events to which Democratic voters are invited; attending events sponsored by state or local Democratic organizations; or paying for campaign materials to be used in such a state. The Rules and Bylaws Committee will determine whether candidate activities are covered by this section.

  128. 128.

    Eolirin

    @chopper: More money isn’t going to change the dynamics of the primary race at this point. It’ll let him stay in longer. Shrug.

  129. 129.

    sacrablue

    Do we know if a bunch of Dems thought Hillary was so far ahead in the polls that they crossed over to vote for Kasich?

  132. 132.

    Betty Cracker

    Bernie’s speech was somewhat subdued considering. Maybe the FL humidity is getting to him.

  133. 133.

    Eolirin

    @sacrablue: I think 538 said 7% of GOP primary voters were Dems? But some of that may be those Reagan Dems turning out for Trump, so it’s hard to say.

  134. 134.

    magurakurin

    They might as well call it for Sanders. He is going to win this in Michigan. The campaign continues. But for the day, he will come out further behind in delegates. Going be rough going for tv viewers in Ohio this week. Lots of ads coming your way.

  139. 139.

    jl

    @Kay: Looks like Sanders is giving his non-victory speech after they caught him wandering out of a men’s room at a freeway rest-stop.

    PEOPLE’S REVOLUTION! To the barricades, comrades.

    Well, people complain about victory statements that are too long, and Bernie delivers an antidote.

    If that odd little statement was because Sanders is on a campaign bus roaring off to Ohio, that is what he should be doing.

  140. 140.

    Anya

    WTF is wrong with Sanders voters who are telling the pollsters they can’t trust Clinton. Someone explain to me like I am a 12-year old, why isn’t Hillary trustworthy? What did she lie about? Where did this come from?

  142. 142.

    Kay

    @Betty Cracker:

    I get a kick out of how he looks the same no matter the backdrop. Put him in a straw hat with a palm tree behind him, whatever, he’d look the same.

  144. 144.

    Kay

    @jl:

    I think he’s in Florida. I have no idea what the Bernie plan is. You would think Ohio would be stronger for him, but they seem to follow their own course, the Bernsters.

  145. 145.

    Anya

    Kay, how do you think Hillary will do in Ohio? If she did this poorly in Michigan, I am seriously worried about her Ohio chances.

  146. 146.

    magurakurin

    What about the 16,000 people who voted for “other” in Michigan? Who the fuck did they vote for O’Malley?

  149. 149.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Anya: Scaife’s operation started spreading the news that Hillary Clinton is a lying, probably criminal person, in some cases, before they were born. They’ve been hearing it for their entire lives as part of the background of general political discussion.

  150. 150.

    Eolirin

    Is Ohio an open primary? Sanders would have lost Michigan quite badly without independents by the looks of it.

  151. 151.

    Anoniminous

    @jl:

    Sanders has been clear. His “revolution” is getting the American people active in US politics at the grassroots, state, and national level. Looking at Voter Participation rates over the last 10 years in all elections that is a goal I think any reasonable person would support.

  152. 152.

    magurakurin

    I see on another chart, it is uncommitted. Maybe you can vote uncommitted in Michigan?

  153. 153.

    Ultraviolet Thunder

    1200 precincts to go in MI and 1/4 of them are in Wayne cty.
    I’m about shot and ready to sack out. It’ll be there in the am. But I expect Bernie to win.

  156. 156.

    Ultraviolet Thunder

    @magurakurin:
    Uncommitted is on the MI Dem ballot.
    I do not know the consequences of that are, except the delegate is not bound to a candidate.

  160. 160.

    NotMax

    @magurakurin

    The bulk of those votes (14k+) went to the line labeled Uncommitted.. O’Malley: 1721 – Rocky De La Fuente: 643.

    Numbers from votes reported thus far. Source

  161. 161.

    Anya

    To me the bright spot of this primary is 67%-33% of Dearborn – largest city of Muslim Arab Americans voted for a Jewish American.

    ETA – I am getting a lot of texts and iMessages from my friends and cousins.

  162. 162.

    Anoniminous

    @PsiFighter37:

    What was he supposed to do about it? He didn’t have a national presence. Had you heard about him before this year? Clinton has been nationally known for over 25 years. What did she do about it?

  164. 164.

    Ampersand

    @Anya:

    For me, it’s more about not trusting her judgment, as opposed to thinking that she lied. I don’t trust her on foreign policy issues (her hawkishness) or corporate issues (she’s way too friendly with big corporations). In no way, shape, or form does she represent me on those issues, and those are two of my four big issues.

    That said, I’m sure that Hillary will win the nomination in the end, and I’ll shrug and vote for her.

    I see that Hillary has gotten a little closer in Michigan…

  165. 165.

    Mnemosyne

    @Anya:

    In the other thread, someone said that Bernie has been getting a much higher percentage of the African-American vote than he has in other states — I think the number was 33 percent?

    If African-American Michiganders put Bernie over the top after all of the posturing from Berniebros about how Bernie doesn’t need those votes, I don’t think I’ll stop laughing at them until November.

  167. 167.

    Kay

    @Anya:

    I think she’s really strong in Ohio, but you’re right, it’s not a great sign. If there’s a lot of anger over trade I would rather have them go to Sanders than go to Trump, but she will have to worry about that if she’s the nominee and Trump is the opponent. NAFTA has become almost a proxy for everything that’s wrong with the economy. It’s gone beyond “NAFTA, the actual deal”. It means “lower wages and economic insecurity and we were lied to”.

    My local newspaper printed a map of Ohio counties this week. It showed the decline in average income since 1999. Where I live they are actually down (median) 7k a year in wages. That’s a lot of money for people who make 35-40k. Of course it’s a median, so it’s not straight “40k – 7k” but they have lost ground every year since 1999. The anxiety is real. It”s based on real loss.

  168. 168.

    NotMax

    What none of the major media seem to cover is that there are 85 delegates allocated to the winner of each MI congressional district.

    As of this moment in time, Clinton is ahead in only 3 of the 14 CDs.

  169. 169.

    Scotian

    @hueyplong:

    I agree it was a good move, and I’m not actually making a complaint regarding crossover voting, just wondering how much of a factor it might be playing in this win, nothing more. As Baud noted already this will clearly further fuel his fundraising machine (not that it seemed in any immediate danger of drying up as it was though), but there is also the question as to whether the resources he used up for this was too little too late given the massive Clinton pledged delegate lead and the fact this is all proportional division of delegates in all States on the Dem side. Watching from up here in NS Sanders seems to have gained a serious second wind, but this was another one of those States with a 2/3rds white Dem vote, so the question I have is whether in the modern Democratic demographics whether a candidate can win with that high a reliance on that white vote as the primary base, the youth as the next, and only minorities as the least. Even here it seems Sanders still didn’t win Black youths 18-35, albeit lost only by a couple of points, and that is the closest apparently in all the States so far Primarywise on the Dem side where the black vote is concerned.

    I’m not taking anything away from the Sanders team managing to make an important win here, whatever the final score ends up this was significant for him, no question. That said though, he needs to start racking up wins with wider margins in delegate rich States from now on before he really can start reversing her delegate lead in pledged delegates as far as I can tell from the math. This shows he still has that chance, but how much of one, even with this win…that really is the question in my view.

  170. 170.

    Anoniminous

    @Ampersand:

    Hillary is almost certain to be our nominee. But there are local, state, and Congressional races where a strong “Bernie” turnout can make the difference, especially in the primary when the nominee are chosen. We can make a difference if we don’t get discouraged and turn-off to the process.

  171. 171.

    PsiFighter37

    @Anoniminous: He could have.

    Bernie Sanders as an independent politician is almost as self-centered as ‘Connecticut for Lieberman’ was.

  173. 173.

    Mnemosyne

    @Scotian:

    As I said above, a strong loss brings its own amount of power. Clinton didn’t get the Secretary of State job accidentally. She negotiated for it in exchange for her strong support of Obama in the 2008 general election.

    Bernistas who are freaking out about his probable loss don’t understand there’s a bigger picture that Sanders will be able to influence.

  175. 175.

    Marc

    @Mnemosyne: Yup, a stronger than expected showing among minority voters for Sanders is a reason to attack…Sanders supporters. Up is down and all that.

  176. 176.

    Elie

    @Mnemosyne:

    Bernistas who are freaking out about his probable loss don’t understand there’s a bigger picture that Sanders will be able to influence.

    Yes

  177. 177.

    Eolirin

    @Mnemosyne: I was under the impression that Obama had to actively court her for that position and that she wasn’t initially interested.

  178. 178.

    Mnemosyne

    @Marc:

    Not every Sanders supporter is a Berniebro, but if the shoe fits, wear it.

    Such a blunder, sometimes it makes me wonder why I even bring the thunder.

  179. 179.

    Eolirin

    @Marc: A stronger than expected showing of minority voters proving to be necessary for a Sanders win is absolutely a reason to go after that (likely very small but very annoying) subset of Sanders supporters who are dismissive of the importance of minority voters.

  180. 180.

    Heliopause

    Kind of hard to overstate this. RCP final poll average was Clinton + 21.4, Huffpost was Clinton + 18.3. One poll as recent as Sunday had Clinton + 37. This is about as big a polling fubar as I can remember, and also makes the Dem race a lot more interesting.

  181. 181.

    Mnemosyne

    @Eolirin:

    That’s kind of my point — there were negotiations to get Hillary to support Obama, and she was able to get concessions from him. Bernie’s platform will not be crushed even if Hillary wins the delegates, because she wants his voters to vote for her. Unless Bernie is an idiot — and I don’t think he is — he’s going to negotiate some concessions from her, and the longer he hangs on, the more concessions he can get. Quid pro quo.

  183. 183.

    Anoniminous

    @Kay:

    The US job market is exposed to wage rate arbitrage by the transnationals. People in China, Cambodia, and etc. are overjoyed to get a job paying $15,000 a year, starvation wages in the US. No dumb ass “Jobs and Retraining Bill” is going to replace a Union factory job paying $45k a year because those jobs no longer exist. Anywhere. The mass employment for production production for mass consumption era is over.

  184. 184.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Anoniminous: But there are local, state, and Congressional races where a strong “Bernie” turnout can make the difference,

    If he stops harping on the notion that the whole party, especially Hillary Clinton, are corrupt. And I really wish the old crank would stop harping on the speeches.

    @Anoniminous: Had you heard about him before this year?

    Yes. In fact, I knew who he was when was calling for a primary challenge to Obama in 2011.

    Clinton has been nationally known for over 25 years. What did she do about it?

    People here have said she’s raised $18 million dollars for downstate races. I don’t know the source of that figure but it seems plausible. She and Bubba campaigned (in vain, it turned out) for Mark Pryor, Allison Grimes. Bubba famously gave a well-received speech for Obama in 2012.

  185. 185.

    Linnaeus

    Been working all day and into the evening, so this is the first real look I’ve had at the primaries today.

    Michigan is definitely a surprise, given Clinton’s lead in the polls prior to today. I wonder if there was any effect from Michigan having an open primary?

    I need to call my dad tomorrow and ask if he voted. Last time I talked to him, he said he hadn’t planned on voting in the primary, but that he also liked Sanders. He’s a lifelong Democratic voter, though, so he’ll be voting for Hillary Clinton in November.

  186. 186.

    Cacti

    @Linnaeus:

    FiveThirtyEight said independents went about 70-30 Sanders, so the preliminary answer is yes.

    How many voted in the Dem primary remains to be seen.

  191. 191.

    Eolirin

    Assuming the exit polling was accurate, then given that self identifying Dems were 57% for Hillary, a lot. Though a good number of those self identifying independents may very well have been registered democrats, so actual party affiliation is harder to say.

  194. 194.

    Bob In Portland

    The NY Times lede:

    Senator Bernie Sanders scored an upset win in the Michigan Democratic primary, according to the Associated Press, threatening to prolong a Democratic campaign that Hillary Clinton appeared to have all but locked up last week.

    At least they mentioned Sanders’ name.

  195. 195.

    Calliope Jane

    Mood swings? Well, I could explain it better, but I’d need charts, and graphs, and an easel. ;)

  200. 200.

    NotMax

    @Thoroughly Pizzled

    Slightly different per party.

    R: Any Michigan Republican is eligible to participate in the primary. A registered voter declares her or his party designation by selecting a Republican ballot at the polls. The voter’s choice becomes public information.

    D: Participation in Michigan’s delegate selection process is open to all voters who wish to participate as Democrats. In order to vote, a voter is required to indicate in writing which political party’s ballot he or she wishes to use.

  201. 201.

    Oldgold

    10 signs for spotting a sociopath
    #1) Sociopaths are charming
    #2) Sociopaths are more spontaneous and intense than other people
    #3) Sociopaths are incapable of feeling shame, guilt or remorse
    #4) Sociopaths invent outrageous lies about their
    #5) Sociopaths seek to dominate others and “win” at all costs
    #6) Sociopaths tend to be highly intelligent
    #7) Sociopaths are incapable of love
    #8) Sociopaths speak poetically
    #9) Sociopaths never apologize
    #10) Sociopaths literally believe that what they say becomes truth merely because they said it

  203. 203.

    Eolirin

    @Mike in DC: Only if polling is just as off as Michigan’s was, for almost every state. Otherwise he’s going to be in a completely impossible to get out of delegate hole afterwards. Losing Florida, Ohio and Illinois by double digit margins would be unrecoverable.

  204. 204.

    Anoniminous

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    (Sorry for the tardy response. Real life intervened.(

    Not being stupid, and while it doesn’t bother me, I ‘get’ people, good people, honest people, don’t like Sanders’ approach, narrative, and message.

    But. Seriously. Saying a weird Jewish self-declared Socialist — during and directly after the Cold War — junior Congressman from Vermont has the same national standing and influence as the President and First Lady? When he can barely get TV time (look up the statistics) as a national contender for the Presidency?

  205. 205.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Anoniminous:

    We can make a difference if we don’t get discouraged and turn-off to the process.

    How.. I mean.. Why? I mean. Who the fuck who cares about this country will stay home because someone wasn’t polite enough?

  207. 207.

    Applejinx

    @Mnemosyne: This. And you know if Bernie wins and Hillary continues to be as strong and effective as she IS and has been, then Hillary and her people get to dictate HOW things are done. Bernie is symbolic of a platform, and it’s a strong and distinct platform in need of implementation details.

    The message is mighty specific. It sure ain’t personality, the ol’ dude’s a cranky codger who offends people. It’s the broad strokes of policy that people are voting for, not the man. Even ‘trustworthiness’ metrics translate to ‘will try to do what he says he will’, which gets back to policy again. It’s a mandate for a more liberal vision and repudiation of neoliberalism.

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