That is about what I expected. UConn looks real good.
As for Wisconsin Sanders is +11 which will give him a decent net delegate gain BUT implies he is still running behind pace.
Open thread
+14
by David Anderson| 224 Comments
This post is in: Election 2016, Open Threads
Poopyman
Wow! So this is the new design, eh? It looks … familiar.
(Guess I’d better check back later.)
Alain the site fixer
Site update is in process. Sidebar done. Making some new pages. Then apply files. Then menus and sidebar tweak.
Enjoy.
May your favorite candidate do as well as you wish your most detested candidate would lose.
geg6
Damn, been monitoring TPM and they have no results yet. Where are you getting yours?
Alain the site fixer
@Poopyman: Check the sidebar bub. It looks different!
Richard Mayhew
@geg6: CNN on at the gym
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Schlemazel (parmesan rancor)
Saw +14 ans was worried JC had fallen off the wagon! Sorry, is it insensitive to joke about that? He knows we are all assholes anyway so he should expect it.
geg6
@Richard Mayhew:
Well, that explains it. CNN is only on in this house if Tony Bourdain is traveling somewhere I’m interested in or for the Tom Hanks pop docs about the 70s and 80s.
? Martin
Chuck Todd: Clinton trails Trump by 3, leads Trump by 4 in hypothetical head-to-heads.
Former is Mississippi, latter is Utah.
The DNC should be dumping money into helping get Trump the nomination.
Anoniminous
Any chance of getting rid of the annoying autoplay bandwidth eating annoyance?
NotMax
@Alain the site fixer
Whoopsie. Is this crowded mess supposed to be in the sidebar? (screenshot)
Noting that in Categories, Bernie still gets two listings, Hillary one. Also, having categories labeled Cooking and Recipes continues to seem redundant.
Amir Khalid
@Schlemazel (parmesan rancor):
I had the same fear.
Mike J
Clinton got 75% of black vote in WI.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Pyramid Grain Elevators.
NotMax
The @ sign in the Recent Comments list is unnecessary clutter (wasn’t there before this upgrade). All the more so because it is on its own line.
Baud
Called for Cruz.
Anoniminous
According to exit polls looks like Wisconsin is repeating the previous voter break-out. Clinton does well with women (won that demo by 13 points) and blacks 45+, Sanders does well with under 30 and Independents.
Baud
Called for Sanders.
Mike J
Women go 54-46 for Clinton. Sanders wins 71% of self-identified “independents'” in the Democratic primary.
dmsilev
@Baud: Both calls aren’t surprises. Big question, at least on the D side, will be the final margin.
Richard Mayhew
@Mike J: and after this the schedule is full of closed primaries
Baud
@dmsilev: I know. Winners and losers if states don’t really mean much on the D side.
Mike J
Amir Khalid
Why is that thing on the right defaulting to popular posts from as far back as three years ago? I use it to see at a glance what the most recent posts are, and that is what it should default to.
geg6
@Richard Mayhew:
Yup. No more of those people who have no right determining my party’s nominee skewing the results. I am completely against open primaries. You want to influence who my party leaders are, you better be an actual member of my party. Don’t like that? Tough shit. Start your own fucking party and do the hard work over decades to build it. Stay the fuck out of my house.
Baud
The mobile site just went kablooie on me.
Baud
test
Baud
Ugh. It now takes extra clicks to get to recent comments.
JPL
In order to access bj on chrome, I have to give my first born..
different-church-lady
Wow, update went fast!
dr. bloor
@geg6:
Here’s my spot:
Marc
Sour grapes are sour, aren’t they? Sanders did well, good on him. Good results for Dems in the exit polls overall.
TaMara (BHF)
So it would probably be a good idea if everyone held their comments on the upgrade until Alain is actually finished, so he doesn’t say FUCk IT and quit before he finishes.
Alain the site fixer
@Baud: It won’t. Still working out many small things. I have to copy many things manually and that’s an issue right now. having trouble accessing back end.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
I didn’t do any of the beta testing, so I’m not going to complain. ;-)
The font sizes seem to have shifted a bit, and the sidebar recentposts/comments looks a bit weird (squares supposed to have thumbnails or something), but it seems to be working.
Thanks Alain! Good luck on the remaining tweaks.
(Chrome on Win7 with ABP and Cleek’s pie filter)
Cheers,
Scott.
Baud
@Alain the site fixer: Thanks.
AkaDad
My man Trump doesn’t lose, Cruz obviously cheated. Anyway, I’m thinking about playing some Far Cry 3. The game is like real life where most of the enemies are brown and black.
burnspbesq
Tonight is the high-water mark for Sanders. And he didn’t come close to what he needed. Cover him with marmalade.
Baud
@burnspbesq: What’s the tally?
JPL
Chris Matthews just told me that if this a basketball game where the team with the most votes win, then it’s good news for Gore. (okay I made up for the last part)
scav
In the good old days, trolls had a little pride in their work and didn’t just dial it in with a few vapid, shopworn stereotypes.
Amir Khalid
@Alain the site fixer:
I do not like what you’ve done so far with this site update. Combining the recent posts/recent comments list was needless. It hinders people who like to see both lists separately.
You don’t need to excerpt the top of most recent comments: just list the commenter’s nym, the post headline, and the time stamp.
Why does the text in the main column now look so big?
dr. bloor
WaPo has 52-47 at the moment, although that’s with about half of Milwaukee counted (Hillary) and only 20% of Madison in (Bern). He’ll open it back up a bit, but burnsie is right.
Davebo
I guess it’s ok. I see the sidebar ad doesn’t render correctly in Firefox or Chrome but it does in Safari.
And I just loved the popup telling me I should call a toll free number to get help about disabling pop up blockers and the annoying “From Around The Web” sidebar showing upskirt and breast pics.
God I hope you’re making serious bank of this crap John.
The site renders worst by far in Chrome but hey, no one uses that anyway amirite?
PsiFighter37
Apparently Tailgunner Ted also wins. Media horserace continues to New York! Can’t wait for the circus to show up in the city.
Did anyone else read Bernie’s transcript with the Daily News and come away feeling like he’s maybe as empty a suit as Trump? For being a 25-year congressman, he has zero goddamn idea how things actually work. Must be nice living off government cheese.
NotMax
Unusable and redundant extra scrollbar now appearing at right hand margin.
Clicking on this post’s title on front page does not go to comments, it goes to a wp-config page.
Ken
@? Martin:
What makes you think they aren’t? Or helping in other ways – the President’s remark last week, that Trump doesn’t understand foreign policy, undoubtedly helped him with the 27%.
RaflW
@Mike J: Ann Coulter is now a regular on MSNBC.
I knew things had gotten bad there, but this is utterly, entirely disqualifying. I am sad that Chris Hayes still works for them.
ETA: Had to change the quote to italics b/c I couldn’t stand seeing her vile name in that extra-large, uuuuuge font (site update fun!)
Kay
@Baud:
I went to a regional Dem dinner and they were all attacking Kasich.
This makes me think they know something :)
He has to drop out. I can’t take it any more.
BTW, the Sanders/Clinton people were nice to each other, at my table anyway.
dr. bloor
@RaflW: Eh, wait a few minutes, they’ll kick him to the curb as well if he doesn’t jump first.
jl
Sanders lead down to plus 5 now.
@PsiFighter37:
I think Sanders was correct that if you want to break up the big banks, the big banks should be ones who decide how to do it best. But disappointing that he didn’t seem to understand several different tax and regulatory mechanisms that would force the big banks to downsize themselves in the most efficient way.
But need to compare HRC’s answer if she is asked what the trigger would be for her to break them up, and how she thinks it could be done.
Baud
@Kay: Kasich was losing big in Wisconsin. They will choose Ryan over Kasich. I think you can relax.
“We secretly replaced these Democrats with normal people. . . . “
Baud
@Kay: My response to you was eated.
dr. bloor
@Kay: Eh. Kasich polls well nationally right now because the only thing that most people know about him is that he’s the one that doesn’t appear to be actively hallucinating or speaking in tongues during the R debates.
The Dems will get the rest of the country up to speed on Mr. Kasich, and right soon at that.
schrodinger's cat
@PsiFighter37: Bernie’s answers on the economy are atrocious, be it trade, banking or Wall Street. He is our Trump.
chris
Another primary?
(Testing)
Baud
@Kay:
I’ll try again. I think they will choose Ryan over Kasich. You can relax.
Baud
@Kay:
My response was eated again.
Betty Cracker
The Rays take the lead for the first time since Havana!
@PsiFighter37: That interview was a complete train wreck. Thought about putting up a thread on it, but I had a shit-show of a day…
dollared
All you Hillary supporters who think Bernie doesn’t understand Dodd Frank, please bear in mind that Obama entered office not understanding basic US Government finance and basic Keynesian macroeconomics. Every time he said that the government was like a household that has to balance his budget, Krugthulu would blow a gasket. And his neoliberal advisors helped cost us the 2010 midterms, and his team completely missed the state government disaster. Millions have suffered because of these amateur mistakes.
And Clinton has plenty of knowledge, she just applies it as a neoliberal, which set of policies has been disastrous for tens of millions of working Americans.
So I will vote for the nominee. But Bernie gets all my money until the platform is ironed out and Hillary comes out and says TPP is dead (not “I have grave misgivings.”).
Davebo
In fairness, I have often gone with the Captain Ron approach to testing.
If anything’s going to happen, it’s going to happen out there!
Mike J
Can’t get in in ffox, keeps redirecting to install page. Chrome seems to work.
dexwood
@Amir Khalid:
My 64 year old eyes were just thinking how nice the text reads.
Kay
@dr. bloor:
I’m just afraid they’re going to wake up in July and say “OMG”, Ted Cruz is horrible” (which they knew, but forgot) and Kasich will weasel his way in there.
Baud
@Kay:
I’ll try to respond again. They will choose Ryan over Kasich IMHO.
geg6
Looks sorta like Bernie may not reach the threshold he needs to keep this going much longer. NY is going to put him away. And the doxxing of super delegates did him no favors if I’m wrong. AFAIC, it’s over. But will still be an enthusiastic primary voter at the end of the month here in PA. If, for no other reason, I need to make the right choice to take on that piece of shit Toomey.
Davebo
@schrodinger’s cat:
What’s sad is that’s supposed to be his big issue. Yet he comes across as a guy with tons of criticism but absolutely no answers.
Anya
My comments were eaten.
How can anyone stand Ted Cruz talk? I am genuinely surprised that people can stand to listen to him more than 30 seconds.
Misterpuff
Cruz: Drumpf had a bad week since he told America what we GOPers want to do to those sluts that can’t keep their legs shut, oops I meant since we won Utah etc. Gilead is on the horizon…….
Baud
@Anya: I didn’t think there would be anyone who made me cringe more than W., but Trump and Cruz managed to pull it off.
J R in WV
@NotMax:
That’s not up to Alain or coders, that’s data that the front pagers can leave as is or mess up further.
Mike J
@Mike J: Browser restart fixed that., but weird extra scrollbar still there.
Rob
Casual lurker testing 1 2 3
The font looks bigger tonight
eta: testing the eta.
eta: Wow, Cruz is currently well ahead of Trump. I wasn’t expecting a margin that big.
Baud
These site format changes are crazy!
dollared
@schrodinger’s cat: And you’re a Democrat that supports Wall Street over Main Street, job exports and multinational job creators. How has that worked for the average American? Use median income statistics and life expectancy trends in your answer, please.
Misterpuff
Heidi Cruz looks good for a vampire squid.
Baud
@dollared: Stop being obnoxious, dude. We’d be so much better off if most Dems were like S.C.
Elie
Interesting insight on Mr. Trump’s campaign which has been speculated upon before…
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/donald-trump-campaign-staff-disarray-221557
ThresherK (GPad)
I can’t count the number of purposeful 30-40 foot passes UConn has made tonight.
ETA: Especially against the press or in the open floor.
dr. luba
No more weird blue outlines, so YAY!
SarahT
@Baud: Same here. But your campaign site’s working just fine.
Kay
@Baud:
I hope so. Ryan’s weaker. Marcy Kaptur was there and she reminded people that Kasich turned down 400 million in fed funding for OH infrastructure, which I had forgotten.
We have a new active Democrat. He’s a deputy sheriff who works at the courthouse. I see him almost every day. He didn’t just join, he’s giving 30 a month direct deposit to the county Party. I’m dying to know what caused him to switch Parties in such an enthusiastic way where he’s immediately donating and wearing suits to dinners but I was trying to act casual, like we’re popular and get new people every day :)
Misterpuff
MSNBC: Goper RW anti-Trump talk show host pins Common Core to Obama, but the school sh*t roots to W and NCLB.
RWNJs have short memories when a Pug does it!
JMG
So far, and it’s really premature, it looks like Sanders is going to win by between the 5-10 percent he was forecast to. A good result, but not a great one. It’s hard lines when you really can’t afford to even win small.
Cruz so far is doing better than he polled. And again, it’s too early to say for sure, but the total vote in both primaries is running about even, so independents may not have voted overwhelmingly in one party or the other.
Kasich finished third! By the Rubio Rule, that means he really won, right?
NotMax
@J R in WV
Nonsense. None of that clutter was showing before this upgrade. Someone made a call to put it there tonight.
Kay
@Misterpuff:
They are genuinely delusional about Common Core. There’s a way to object to it, but you would first have to know what it is, and they don’t.
dollared
@Baud: Why? Seriously? I think honestly trade is a definitional issue, after decades of observation and study. And finance? C’mon. These are real issues in a country where 150M people have seen their standard of living decline.
smith
If you can stand it: What Trump would look like without his fake tan.
Kropadope
@geg6:
The 60% of Massachusetts residents who are registered as “unenrolled,” vote in D primaries, then return to vote D in the general are probably real happy the party doesn’t take your awful fucking advice.
Anya
@dollared: Completely disagree with you. Obama understood “basic US Government finance and basic Keynesian macroeconomics” but he used that stupid anology for political reasons to fight against the stupid myth: Democrats are “tax and spend liberals”. There’s a difference between political framing and not understanding an issue. I have never felt Obama didn’t do his homework. Every news paper interviewed him on various issues and no one ever claimed he didn’t understand the issues. Liberals dissagreed with him on certain issues and conservatives used everything he said as proof to call him “the Senate’s most liberal.” Sanders comes off as clueless. He diagnoses every problem but he doesn’t offer any solutions or policy proposals to fix the problem.
dollared
BTW, tonight the first three times I went to my bookmark for the site it gave me the WP administrator portal.
Appears to be resolved.
dr. bloor
@JMG: Based on the map, uncounted votes should tilt pretty convincingly in Sanders’ favor from here on out (Milwaukee and environs are about 80% reported). Still won’t be the shellacking he needs, though.
chris
Test worked. Site looks good (Chrome, Linux Mint) Thanks, Alain.
Here are my guys, Steve the cat and Bert the wonderdog, reacting to the excitement.
http://thumbsnap.com/q0QJNvin
Baud
@dollared: I don’t care if you want to talk issues. You are obnoxious for telling other people (good people) what they stand for.
Technocrat
@Elie:
Wait, what?
Bwahaha.
I’m assuming they perp-walked the data guy out under, uh, adversarial circumstances.
ETA: I like the new blockquotes!
debbie
@Kay:
Don’t do that to yourself. Just know that he will drop out at some point and that many fingers will be pointing and laughing at him as he’s walking out the door.
Kropadope
@burnspbesq: High water mark? He won several states by wider margins.
? Martin
@Misterpuff:
Actually Common Core (as the name suggests) was a loose agreement among the states as an alternative to NCLB. It’s not a federal mandate, rather something the Feds have simply endorsed. It was initiated by the National Governors Association. 42 of 50 states have adopted the standard.
The Obama administration endorsed Common Core as way to opt out of NCLB, but it’s not a requirement.
So, the Republicans passed this federal education mandate that everyone hated, the Obama administration gave the states the flexibility to opt out of the law, which the states organized and did, they then backed the replacement for the mandate last December (which passed, and Obama signed) and the GOP is still banging on the lie. It’s amazing.
Linnaeus
@schrodinger’s cat:
Whatever flaws Sanders has, he is no Donald Trump. I think this equivalence is too glib.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Somebody explain to me again why Bernie supporters have to be wrapped in quilts and fed strawberry milk and cinnamon toast?
dollared
@Anya: I have read a great deal of Sanders work, and his policy statements, and I am satisfied that he would make a better president than HIllary more of the same.
As for Obama’s knowledge, I am only giving you one example. There were a large number of people who felt 1) he really screwed up the party by ignoring the vitality of the state organizations and 2) he did not understand Keynesian macroeconomics. Krugman’s far from the only one. Summers said the same thing, after his time (and the very fact that he hired Summers…..and retained Bernanke….)
FlipYrWhig
@dollared: For someone who takes big economic issues as the centerpiece of his campaign, Sanders should have something to say about them other than STUFF SUCKS AND I CAN UN-SUCK IT BY TRYING HARDER. But he doesn’t. He’s an empty droopy suit.
dr. bloor
@Kay: Where’s Kasich’s money coming from at this point? The Anybody but Trump contingent?
Chyron HR
How many primaries does Sanders have to win before his supporters begin obsequiously kowtowing for everyone else’s votes in the general election? That’s what the primary winners are supposed to do, right?
debbie
@dr. bloor:
Since he’s an ex-employee there, I’d bet it’s the Goldman Sachs money that Sanders insists Hillary took. ;)
FlipYrWhig
@dollared: Whereas Bernie Sanders knows that money is bad. He’s an impressive human being.
Anya
@Kay: Wouldn’t that damage them as a party? Cruz and Trump & their supporters are vindictive assholes. I don’t think they’ll go quietly. But I don’t actually think the party will unite behind Kasich at a contested convention. If it gets to a contested convention, I think it’s as close as guaranteed our nominee will win.
slag
Yay! Back button! That’s all I cared about.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@debbie: Lehmann Bros, I think, one of the ones that went belly up
ETA; I thought it was a brief stint, looks like he was there though the bitter end
Kasich joined Lehman’s investment banking division as managing director in 2001, working there until the firm’s collapse in September 2008 unleashed global panic and served as the catalyst for the financial crisis.
debbie
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Damn, I always confuse those two.
FlipYrWhig
@Chyron HR: HES GOING TO NEED THOSE VOTES FOR THE GENERAL AND HE HAS TO EARN THEM
dollared
@FlipYrWhig: And how does Hillary Clinton promise to make fundamental changes to rebalance our economy and raise the standard of living of the 150+ million who have been screwed? Oh, that’s right, she’s the choice to competently run things in the same direction they have been going. And Clinton supporters have the gall to say that Sanders supporters are “comfortable.”
Sanders is quite clear on some simple and fundamental changes – single payer health care, financial transactions tax, reinstating Glass Steagall. These would cause positive change for the lower 2/3 of Americans. There is no confusion around these. And if you don’t believe they’ll ever happen, then its upon you and the fellow Clinton supporters to explain how we can rebalance our society without these changes.
dr. bloor
@Anya: I would guess the party machine guys will make their best guess as to which option is likely to do the least amount of damage to down-ticket races. The way the primary season is shaking out, getting the WH back would be a pleasant surprise for them, and they know it as well as anyone.
Kropadope
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
We don’t. For me, when I come home from work and I’m reading the comments and looking for interesting links, it gets really frustrating reading dozens and dozens of generally unprovoked insults directed toward Bernie and his supporters.
dollared
@FlipYrWhig: Thanks for your earnest, good faith, sophisticated analysis. Clearly I should outsource my thinking about what I want for the future of my country to you. And I should support your candidate because —she likes money?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
re-read this thread, then your own “If I can’t have Bernie, let the world burn” post from yesterday
Linnaeus
@dollared:
Sanders’s problem, though, is that he has not provided much detail about how he would do these things. Of course, political campaigns aren’t policy seminars, so I’m not expecting a dissertation, but a little more from his campaign would help.
Then there’s the issue of having enough support in Congress to do these things, which he very likely will not have.
dr. bloor
@dollared:
In an interview with an editorial board, it is incumbent on Sanders to explain how he can make those things happen when he enters office with a Republican Senate and House in place, no executive experience beyond the mayoral level, and precious few allies in the party he’s been caucusing with for the past twenty-five years.
You don’t go into a meeting with an editorial board assuming you can use your stump speech, particularly one you should expect will be hostile to your agenda. I don’t think he’s as bad on the issues and details as the transcript suggests, but he fucked up.
dollared
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Hmmmmm….thank you for your thoughtful contribution. At least Anya attempted to actually address the historical facts.
divF
@dollared:
Bingo – we have a winner ! Hillary is the one to continue to improve matters in this country the way Obama has for the last 7+ years.
The burden of proof is on Bernie to show he has a plan that will (1) change things faster (2) without causing economic chaos. We’ll accept you as a proxy. Please show all your work.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I realize this might be confusing for a Sanders supporter, but feelings aren’t facts, nor votes in a general election, nor legislation.
dollared
So, apparently you wouldn’t have voted for FDR. Because you would have rejected him because the Congress would not pass his agenda and the Supreme Court would block it.
You want a better country than the one we have, you have to work for a Democratic Congress. It’s the only way ANYBODY (yes, even Super Smart Clinton) is going to implement any change.
RaflW
@Linnaeus: I agree the comparison is too glib. But the issues of stagnant wages and feelings of being left behind economically, as well as being ignored by party elites on each side, are at least quite related. There are a lot of very anxious voters who are not buying the establishment answers on either side.
I hope the Democratic machine is paying more attention to the unease and disaffection, even if we’re not at the level of wheels off careering down a 200 foot ravine like the GOP.
Betty Cracker
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I knew he worked there but didn’t realize he was still there when Lehmann went down! Damn, was that ever brought up during a GOP debate?
FlyingToaster
For Alain — Site update phenomenal; as it’s gone on, the weirdnesses keep going away.
I, like many, have a weird-ass gutter/pipe next to my right-hand scroll bar.
The ora.tv Flash thing is still there, on the right between “follow” and “archives”. I’ve blocked it as usual, since it slows down damn near everything for me. It’s in source, so I suspect it’s a piece of theme, or legacy from who knows where. But if John isn’t being paid for it, you should get rid of it forthwith.
The ads are no longer cropped. Looks MUCH better.
Mac, El Capitan, Firefox 45 and Chrome 49.
Well done, sir!
PhoenixRising
@Linnaeus: More specifically, he gave a disastrous interview in which he responded to that question, and the ones near it, with bizarrely uninformed talking points.
I can expect more from a Democratic candidate, and I do. It’s not, contra the above, my problem or HRC’s burden to explain that flying ponies *don’t* typiclaly crap $100s when the right person shouts at them repetitively, it’s Bernie Sanders’ burden to distinguish his policy proposals from flying ponies crapping $100s.
Dan
@dollared:
you know, the comparison to FDR is rich indeed, since FDR in his time was excoriated by the left of the day all the time for not going far or fast enough.
also FDR had huge majorities in Congress, so.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
We’ll see
ETA: can you make predictions about a future that won’t take place? Cause I suspect it would make Rob Portman or Kelly Ayotte very happy to be able to tie their opponents to Bernie Sanders.
Kropadope
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: The phenomenon I described was part, though not all, of the reason for my ranting yesterday. You can go back months and you’ll find that many, if not most, of the threads are littered with rando attacks, particularly on Bernie’s supporters. This holds true on many threads that weren’t even discussing the primary.
I don’t know why I’m bothering explaining it to you, though. You’re one of the ones leading the charge in making this a hostile environment. You expect people to be insulted and not return the favor, you’re dreaming.
divF
@dollared:
FDR had a Democratic Congress.
Hillary is working and raising funds to elect Democrats.
Bernie is doing neither of those things.
You’ll have to do better than that.
Kay
@dr. bloor:
This is Kasich donors. Boich is coal, but most of his funding is large individual contributions (people who give the max) and 50% of it is raised in Ohio. It makes sense for better off people in Ohio to support him even if he doesn’t have a chance, so that doesn’t surprise me. That is also actually his base- higher income people in Ohio.
dr. bloor
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
*Golf clap*
Hill Dweller
@dollared: Obama’s first piece of legislation after being sworn in was the stimulus, which undermines that bullshit about his lack of Keynesian macroeconomics. The Republicans filibustered the stimulus, but the Dems didn’t have 60 votes. Consequently, Senators like Snowe, Collins, Nelson, etc had outsized influence shaping it(making it less stimulative). The Republicans continued effectively hammering Obama for the deficit, which killed any chance of more stimulus save small things like extended unemployment insurance and temporary payroll tax cuts. Furthermore, i’m not sure why you want to have a compare and contrast of Sanders’ and Obama’s respect knowledge on policy. It’s doesn’t help your guy in the least.
dollared
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: There were a number of economists and journalists with access to the president who asserted Obama was very weak on macroeconomics, and made suboptimal decisions.
I guess you really are the foolish literalist. And someone with no manners.
Anne Laurie
@PsiFighter37:
They didn’t catch Bernie at his best, that’s for sure. Not a big fan, but I think he was more tired/stressed than natively stupid — running for President is hard work & Sanders doesn’t have the experience pacing himself that Clinton does.
Also — and this may be just my own prejudice — despite Sanders’ ‘born in Brooklyn’ routine, I get the feeling that he is not well liked by NYC people. He handled his One Big Issue really badly (“I’ll break up Wall Street?” “How?” “…. I told you — I’ll break up Wall Street!”), given how much NYC depends on Wall Street as an industry. It was like going to the LA Times and telling them he’d break up the studios (“How?” “By breaking them up!”) because they were destroying America’s global image and allowing retread garbage to push out worthy new independent products. Even if his interlocutors agree with him, (a) he better have a proposal to replace all that lost income, and (b) he’s an outsider, who cares what he thinks?!?
Linnaeus
@RaflW:
Trump’s message, though, is alloyed with racial resentment, which is something that we definitely don’t see from Sanders. What Trump proposes to do economically, furthermore, is not that much different from what his fellow Republicans aim to do.
Kay
@Betty Cracker:
He says it would be like blaming a car dealer for a collapse of an auto company. He just had a little storefront Lehman office, hung out his shingle, advised “folks” on prudent investing, like that.
He’s full of shit but this is his story and it works. The one and only reason they hired him is he was a former congressman.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@dollared: I guess if you really have no concept of how legislation gets passed in this country, if you are emotionally invested in ignoring it, it makes sense to support Bernie.
and that wasn’t me, it was the dog
Dan
@dollared:
also, this very blog has featured some of Hillary’s plans for expanding health insurance access, some of which could be done administratively without Congressional approval. Which tells me that HRC’s already thinking about how she can push things forward even if we don’t have a Dem Congress.
and as mentioned, there’s one presidential candidate that’s been fundraising for Dem candidates and the DNC this election, and it’s not Bernie.
RaflW
@dollared: I believe many of the changes you list are possible, and can happen. I do not believe they will come about in the next 3-5 years. Just not gonna happen. The structural challenges in budging the US House predicate organizing a downballot campaign over multiple cycles. Bernie has so far shown no interest that I’m aware of (but would welcome news of such).
dollared
@divF: He did not when he was running. It was a Republican Congress before the election. And you didn’t answer about the Supreme Court, which was a known issue at that time.
As for the downticket, that is a manufactured issue with no value. Bernie is not going to work to elect Blue Dogs, because THEY DON’T WANT HIM NEAR THEM. So the Hillsters just made this issue up out of whole cloth. In bad faith, because they are good at that.
geg6
@Kropadope:
You know what? I don’t really give a shit what they think. They aren’t my family. If they refuse to use my name, they aren’t a part of the family and don’t get a say so in family matters. Tuck them and fuck anyone who doesn’t like it. Including your vaunted and completely not ready for prime time St. Bernie.
gwangung
@dollared: What ignorant hogwash.
It’s obvious you have nothing.
Villago Delenda Est
@dollared: Yeah, but while Obama only had part of a term as a Senator behind him, Bernie’s been in the Congress game for decades.
There’s no excuse for him not being wonky about these things that are so important to him. Jedi mind tricks might work on the Drumpfenproletariat and the Berniebros, but they’re not working on me, and up until now, I’ve been leaning Bern. But while he knows where he wants to go, he doesn’t know how to get there. This disturbs me a great deal.
dollared
@Hill Dweller: I don’t disagree with your analysis of the Congressional situation. However, the stimulus discussion was one of the first areas that economists started questioning his understanding. Then all his framing errors, which betrayed weak understanding of Keynesian fundamental, and which conceded the discussion to Republican memes. He’s a really smart guy, but he played “the truth lies in between” on a lot of macroeconomic issues where he should have known better.
And nobody on this thread has disagreed with me about his failures in party management.
RaflW
@dollared:
Yup. And way too much of what I’m seeing right now from the more liberal end of my friend group amounts to “fuck Hillary, I’m staying home if Bernie isn’t the nominee.” Which will give us what congress in 2017?
I hope to hell and back that Democrats do indeed coalesce and think strategically after the nominating fight is over. I am very worried that is being torn up right now.
Steeplejack
@Kay:
LOL.
dollared
@gwangung: Thanks for your insightful, fact fill, well argued points.
dr. bloor
@dollared:
Aside from being wrong about the nature of down ticket races, you suck at modeling “manners.”
? Martin
@Anne Laurie:
He’s never answered that question. I’ll give a free answer: The problem that ‘too big to fail’ was trying to identify was that the FDIC and other insurers never planned to have the kind of cash in reserve that would be needed to bail out the biggest bank because it assumed that regional consumer banking and not multinational investment+consumer banking was the goal. So pass a law that says that FDIC must have enough cash in reserve to bail out the largest financial institution should it fail.
Right now that’s about $1.5T. So, the law would raise the insurance premium rate until it raises $1.5T. If the banks dislike tying up that much capital (as they should, it’s an inordinate amount) then they should voluntarily break themselves up until that that amount is small enough that they are willing to fund. Pretty simple concept.
Sanders ideas aren’t bad in terms of their desired outcomes, but there needs to be a road from here to there that can at least be imagined. He doesn’t even provide that in far too many cases. I cannot think of a Clinton position that does not have a roadmap charted out. Some of those positions could afford to be grander, but they are at least imaginable.
geg6
@dollared:
So much historical ignorance in one short comment. This is why I can’t bear Bernistas.
Kropadope
@geg6: So, you don’t want independents voting for Dem candidates? I kind of already figured that, but it’s nice to hear you say it explicitly.
Kay
@Anya:
I think Trump will damage them more as a Party. Cruz won’t, but he’ll lose. I just don’t believe they’re ready to lose. I think they’ll try to win.
Betty Cracker
Wow, Trump issued a sore loser statement for the ages tonight!
PhoenixRising
@? Martin: Thank you for clearly explaining what TBTF actually means, and how the risks can be shifted onto those who are making the profits–using tools we have/can locate.
Please consider volunteering for Bernie and explaining it to him, in the event that he wins NY, PA and MD.
RaflW
@Linnaeus: Again, I agree. The candidates are 1,000s of miles apart on the issues. Clearly Bernie isn’t using stressed people to implement policies that will screw them, as Trump would.
But the voter fear, anger, resentments around economic issues (not their bad racial/immigrant blame/’analyses’) are pretty closely aligned. That’s what is very interesting to me and suggest a bigger realignment ahead that we may not even grasp yet. We just have to keep the GOP from getting any more power in the short term, I worry that the realignment would tilt very fascist if they do.
The Sheriff Endorses Baud 2016
Sanders wins rural whites, loses inner city minorities. More at 11.
Technocrat
@Betty Cracker:
Seriously. That was amazing. You have to read it carefully to find the “concession” part.
PhoenixRising
@Betty Cracker:
Trump issued a sore loser statement for the ages tonight
It sounded like my wife’s 9yo nephew arguing about why he shouldn’t be grounded. It was whiny, laden with falsehoods and misused ‘whomever’. IOW…Trump.
The Sheriff Endorses Baud 2016
@RaflW:
Oh, I’m grasping it every time I hear a Sanders supporter spout off about ‘identity politics’ and dismissing African-American voters.
Hill Dweller
@dollared: When did framing become “lack of knowledge”? Keep in mind, we had a trillion+ dollar deficit for a few years. Republicans were hammering Obama for it. He had to at least publicly feign concern for it.
pseudonymous in nc
@Anya:
He sounds like a mashup of every Looney Tunes villain.
Cacti
@dollared:
Changes can be simple, or they can be fundamental. They are rarely both.
Otherwise, the Sanders campaign wouldn’t be having such a difficult time explaining how we get from A to B.
“Revolution” isn’t an answer. It’s an applause line.
Kropadope
@The Sheriff Endorses Baud 2016: Disagreeing with the choice made by a majority of a particular minority is the same as dismissing their votes now?
geg6
@Kropadope:
Not in my party’s nominating contest. Should I make you executor of my will just because you want a say so in the matter even though I don’t know you and you have never contributed to my family life and refuse to call yourself by my family name?
RaflW
@dollared:
The US House blocking everything the next Democratic president (Bernie or Hillary) would want to do for Americans, that is a “manufactured issue”? Buhbye, troll.
Kropadope
@Anya:
Beyond that, consider the fact that he seldom stops talking before 30 minutes have elapsed.
Kropadope
@geg6: Democrats aren’t a family and they would be exactly nowhere without the support of independents.
Technocrat
Wow. Free Republic is hi-larious right now. Someone posted a GIF that said:
“Is Cruz your choice for President in 2016? It’s a Vote for George Soros!”.
Ted is too much of a leftist for these guys. I can’t even snark that.
RaflW
@Cacti:
+1
pseudonymous in nc
@dollared:
Well, it’s a pity that the gerrymandered House and the lopsided Senate make all of those things nigh-on impossible, and President Bernie can’t shit them out like unicorn poop. It’s also a pity that large chunks of the American electorate — including lots of the lower 2/3 — regularly vote to fuck themselves over in order to ensure Those People get fucked over even more.
Incrementally. By stopping big regressions and shoring shit up. By clawing back control of states, which is something that Bernie of Vermonty Vermont does not seem to give a fuck about. It’s not as glamorous as close-your-eyes-and-wish-very-hard revolutionary rhetoric, but so be it.
dollared
@geg6: Really. Perhaps you’d actually like to explain specifically where I have the facts wrong?
Kropadope
@pseudonymous in nc:
Hillary will likely have the same problem and the same solution, tempered goals and administrative moves. But Bernie’s smaller goals don’t count because reasons.
pseudonymous in nc
@dollared:
oh, I first saw that tactic on the internet in… 1994, was it?
I bet that was before you were born.
mike in dc
Sanders up almost 13 right now. That’s pretty close to the +15 target he had to hit tonight. Still, to survive the month he has to beat Clinton in NY and win at least a couple states on the 26th. If he can, then she can’t close him out until June, and he still has a (very remote) chance to pull it out with a big win in CA.
dollared
@pseudonymous in nc: That’s it? you don’t think it can be done in the next two years so we shouldn’t try ever? And you want to lather me in patronizing insults because I recognize that successful political movements set aspirational goals and then work for years or decades to achieve them? Learn some manners.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Kropadope: Hillary Clinton can win a general election. Bernie Sanders cannot.
Kropadope
@dollared:
That’s pretty much the entire ethos here these days.
dollared
@pseudonymous in nc: Yes I learned to ask the other side to be specific when I negotiated my first purchase of a going business. In 1984. So you’re patronizing and an idiot?
Kropadope
@Jim, Foolish Illiterate: I see no real reason to believe that. The available evidence, General Election polling, while obviously not determinative still implies the exact opposite.
dollared
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: That isn’t what the head to head polls say. Facts….
dollared
@Kropadope: Battered Progressive Syndrome.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@dollared: Today’s polls won’t decide November elections. I don’t think the Republicans will treat Bernie with the same kid gloves Clinton and other Dems feel they have to now. Nor will the general electorate will be indifferent to foreign policy.
Linnaeus
@RaflW:
Possibly. I do think that the Sanders phenomenon is something that Democrats ought not dismiss, even if they don’t care for Sanders himself. There’s a shift going on in the party and it would behoove Democrats to make sure that they understand it.
Kropadope
@Jim, Foolish Illiterate:
Oh, is that what you call misrepresenting his platform, record, and statements?
dollared
@RaflW: The manufactured issue is that Bernie has not committed to campaign for downticket candidates if he’s not the nominee. And it’s totally manufactured because if Bernie is not the nominee, no Dem will want him to campaign for them, and most cowardly Dems in purple districts will beg him to leave the country during the General.
RaflW
@dollared:
Remember, when you point a finger at someone, there are three more pointing back at you.
FlipYrWhig
@dollared:
Maybe the candidate whose entire pitch for how to change politics is that he needs a lot of like-minded politicians to work with him to shake things up should have an inkling about how to get a lot of like-minded politicians to work with him to shake things up. Maybe, let’s see, cultivate some candidates who aren’t Blue Dog Democrats to be the foot soldiers in his army? No, wait, I forgot, all money that isn’t in Bernie’s coffers is corrupt.
PhoenixRising
Could we possibly all act like adults who know things?
A Jewish atheist who was an unwed parent of a child who was eligible for public benefits while living with his hippie mom, who is now married to a woman whose previous marriage ended when they met, who says he’s a socialist and wants to raise your taxes to offset the expenses of nationalizing 1/6 of our economy (health care)…cannot win a national election. It’s not even arguable. Would that it were otherwise, but it is not otherwise.
I get the temptation to delude ourselves, but grownups need to use the available information. The Republican party has been telling us who they are since 1964, and it’s time to believe them.
Now that we have that out of the way…what is the most productive thing for Sanders to do with this, his moment in the sun? Attack the ethics and honesty and character of the more-progressive of the possible nominees for President and her party, because despite the policy record they are all sellouts and corporate shills because they took money from rich people? Or something that moves his stated goals ahead?
He has to choose, and this is all about character. His.
Elie
@Linnaeus:
Let us not forget that that “phenomenon” was allowed to bloom because Hillary was hands off and factored a unified party over destroying her opponent early on. She did not attack and really has not, allowing him and his — campaign a green light to damage her with impunity — all while the MSM wanting the horserace and hating Hillary, help him along? He is a perfect voodoo doll for the Repubs who look at all his negatives (and there are many including too old), and pray he is the Democratic nominee. I don’t like Bernie but I would hold my nose and vote for him if he is the nominee. He is a fake.
Elie
@dollared:
Where are those effing tax returns? I think that is a good question don’t you? Nah nah, no fair blaming the wifey for why he doesn’t have anything out there with details… Tax returns — Mr holier than thou, mr clean, hate the rich….
Kropadope
@Elie:
With help like this, who needs hinderances?
FlipYrWhig
@PhoenixRising: We already know his character: preachy, uninformed, and dickish.
RaflW
@Kropadope: I don’t think the polls have really shown what you say, or what Jim says. Either Sanders and Clinton have a good shot, in no small part because the GOP is a disaster’s disaster.
But if the level of poo flinging around here is any indication, the next few weeks could be a stunning exercise in trashing our two candidates and narrowing the national head-to-head margins. I may have to stay away from these environs for a while.
dollared
@RaflW: Read the thread. Count the insults. Note that the two times I said something rude, I was responding to an insult. And yes, the downticket thing is a manufactured issue, raised in bad faith, based on a totally unrealistic scenario of a Dem candidate in a purple state asking Bernie, the beaten primary candidate, to come campaign for him or her in the general. It will never happen, because the downticket candidate would never.request Bernie’s help.
Elie
@RaflW:
I hear you but its not a bad thing to show up and slow down the reactions from time to time. I hear you though… even as I have gotten more radicalized….
Elie
I like the new block quotes !!
RaflW
@Linnaeus: And, I agree, again. I said it differently @156 above, but I do want the Democratic party to legitimately incorporate a good bit of what Sanders is talking about.
To that end, I am pretty damn pissed that Obama endorsed DWS for re-election. He should have stayed out of that. She is not someone who is the least bit interested in the sort of progressivism that I think can revitalize the Democratic party.
dollared
@Elie: Agreed, he needs to fix that. And Senator Clinton needs to release her speeches.
Kropadope
@FlipYrWhig:
Taken to talking about yourself in third person personal pronouns, have you?
Elie
I have to say what really radicalized me was my caucus experience. Before that I was cool and analytical… Now I am — less so….
Made a great strawberry pie today…. THATS important. Trying to get my norm back…
Elie
@dollared:
Not quite the same thing but nice try —- :-)
Linnaeus
@Elie:
I don’t think we can take this as a given. Clinton had (and still has) significant advantages going into the primaries: long standing relationships within the party and with its major interest groups, political experience, high name recognition, etc. that she has been leveraging all along (as she should be doing). My guess is that Clinton didn’t really know what to expect from Sanders, her early stance toward him didn’t quite have the effect she hoped it would have had, and she has adjusted accordingly.
pseudonymous in nc
@dollared:
Grow the fuck up. Institutional politics is the art of the possible. If you want a fucking revolution, then start building some fucking barricades and filling up petrol bombs.
Kropadope
@pseudonymous in nc:
Little known facts (at least on Balloon-Juice), revolutions do not need to be violent and are not instantaneous.
dollared
@pseudonymous in nc: Thanks for your keen analytical insights and fantastic historical perspective. For example I had not known that FDR and Reagan manned barricades and threw petrol bombs
pseudonymous in nc
@dollared:
This is utter bullshit. The basic point is that Bernie has amassed a fucking huge campaign warchest for a supposed radical democratic socialist, and has kept it all to his fucking self. This is not a surprise, because there has never been any indication that Bernie thinks beyond his own little privileged pasty-white Vermont fiefdom, and everybody outside that pasty-white Vermont fiefdom is meant to sign up for his party as opposed to him joining the Democrats.
(For what it’s worth, I have plenty of problems with Hillary Clinton, but as an actual democratic socialist from elsewhere, I cannot abide the hectoring, sanctimonious, self-satisfied purity party of the Democracy Now! strain of the American left.)
RaflW
@dollared: First of all, downticket help is not just stumping for candidates. There is fundraising for candidates and the party. Sharing voter and donor lists. And I don’t share your sense that all Dems would shun Bernie as a surrogate after the nom contest is over. That depends a lot on how he and Clinton (and their supporters) have and will comport themselves in the campaign, and what longer term vision particular candidates have.
I’m not an idiot, of course I don’t think Blue Dog Dems (the few that remain) want Bernie to show up at their donor parties. But Keith Ellison comes to mind right away as a House member who could effectively do movement building, fundraising and volunteer recruitment with Bernie’s help, whether he’s the nominee or not. I think there could be other members of the House Progressive Caucus who could as well.
The question that is top of my mind these days is, do Sanders supporters want incremental progressive change in support of mevement goals, or only this so-called revolution? For those who I think crave the latter, it just isn’t realistic.
It is passionate, it’s real for them in terms of feeling the feels, but I’m one who believes that politics is the art of the possible. That may disqualify me in the eyes of various purity ponies. So be it.
I’ve watched the Obama years unfold, and while there have been times that I’ve been very frustrated, and often impatient, I think the overall thrust of his years has shown that even against an incredibly forceful onslaught of negativity from the GOP, incremental progress in some powerful ways has happened.
I don’t have illusions that Clinton will be as good as Obama. But she is, in my estimation, the candidate most likely to preserve, continue, and build on the Obama legacy.
The time for the sorts of changes Sanders supporters want can — and should! — come. But the groundwork and movement building to realize such change just hasn’t happened yet. Maybe the downballot argument is in some ways not the right argument after all. But the Sanders campaign appears to me to have the trappings of a personality-motivated flash, not a real progressive movement. We need the latter.
Kropadope
@RaflW:
Not mutually exclusive. Again, I don’t see the word “immediate” appear anywhere in the definition of Revolution.
Splitting Image
@? Martin:
This is the best explanation of “Too Big to Fail” and what should be done about it that I have heard. Thanks.
Your last paragraph reminds me that I should re-read Friedrich Engels’ book “Socialism: Utopian and Scientific”, in which he makes some similar points. It seems that he and Karl attracted a lot of the idealists in his day who dreamed of a fill-in-the-blankist utopia, but who didn’t respect the work of mapping out how to get from A to B.
RaflW
@Kropadope: We aren’t talking about dictionaries, we’re talking about the Sanders campaign and their ‘revolution’ media/campaign strategy.
Which is all it is.
There is no movement building apparent behind it. So excuse me if I think it’s B.S.
chopper
@dollared:
just gonna quote this to have it sitting out there. that’s just…Yeesh.
dollared
@chopper: That’s what.it is.
pseudonymous in nc
@dollared: Perhaps you’d actually like to explain specifically where everybody talking about the downticket has their facts wrong?
Kropadope
@dollared: It’s a real issue. That people don’t seem to think this is a concern for Hillary is kind of weird, though.
dollared
@pseudonymous in nc: I’ve explained why the campaigning thing is wrong. As for the joint fundraising thing, 1) many, many Democrats would not want his money and 2) Bernie is in a tough spot because the Party is trying so hard to fuck him. – the debates, withholding lists, caucus rules applications, etc. etc, etc. He really should not share information with the Party. So how would it work? And if he gives his crown jewels away, what leverage does he keep to ensure that the Party doesn’t fuck him again?
Finally, I’m curious. Does OFA do heavy lifting and fundraising for Democrats, share all its lists, etc? I remember hearing lots of complaints about Obama going out on his own.
dollared
@Splitting Image: To be clear, Martin is cogently explaining the TBTF mechanism that was kluged together because we didn’t have the political will to reinstate Glass Steagall. If you reinstate Glass Steagall you don’t have the exposure of investment banking to commercial banking, and so you don’t need this really huge reserve mechanism. So Bernie would do away with the kluge and the complexity, and the potential for lax enforcement of a complex system, which is exactly what happened the last time……
burnspbesq
@Baud:
Per Bloomberg, 1,743 – 1,056.
Takes 2,383 to win. There are 1,966 left.
1,327/1,966 = 67.5%
burnspbesq
@dollared:
Given the NYDN interview, it appears that you understand this far better than he does.
Damien
@burnspbesq: Fair and accurate burn.
As for helping downticket, who is saying a goddamn thing about Bernie having to JUST help the DNC Dems? Throw money to primary challengers, throw money to progressive candidates that he’d like to see run; hell, spend 6 million on DWS’s primary opponent as part of building the masonry of the revolution.
Or don’t, that’s fine, but myself and other Democrats who push for the party are gonna feel just as good about calling your “revolution” a Potemkin uprising.
Matt McIrvin
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
By the Nominate My Guy Or I’ll Shoot This Country theory of electability. That commenter last night explained it all.
Marc
@Elie: As someone who is sympathetic to Clinton and leans Sanders, I’d have to say that the Clinton partisans here and their incredibly hostile treatment of Sanders and his supporters has really, really antagonized me. Like most Dems, I like both; Sanders is just closer to my politics and my values. We’ve been told over and over again to work within the party, which is what Sanders is doing. Treating his supporters like republicans isn’t just politically stupid. This is an actual community; people have been commenting here for years. Slagging them because of the issue of the week is destructive as hell. It may not matter at the polls, but the 2008 primaries caused a lot of online communities to go nuts and broke them up.
And, yea, my wife gets annoyed by fanatical friends on Facebook who support Bernie. It’s real. There’s always a few. Copying them isn’t an answer.
pseudonymous in nc
@dollared:
Oh, you’ve asked them? That has the whiff of an after-the fact rationale.
That’s weak sauce. As Damien said, this isn’t about the Party — not least because there is no Party to the degree that Bernistas seem to believe, ruled by the wicked queen of south Florida — and there are city and county and state-level races where Sanders supporters ought to be reciprocated down-ballot. There’s money that can be spent on dealing with voter ID shit.
The prevailing message from the campaign is still ‘come join my party’, and that’s not something the Dems can afford to do this year, because you don’t change the complexion of state legislatures and governors’ offices with a concept.
Uncle Cosmo
@Villago Delenda Est:
IOW, Moses. He was born to star in that role, leading the DemSocialites out of junk-bondage toward a Promised Land he’ll only glimpse. All he had to do was provide a persuasive critique of the current arrangements & carefully, patiently build a downticket bench…
But he wants to be Pharaoh instead, & the best/worst outcome of that quixotic quest will leave his motley army in the middle of the isthmus when the Redstate Sea comes crashing back in on them.