Paul Ryan shut down speculation that he might ride into Cleveland on a white steed and rescue the GOP from the Trumpenstein monster the party (including Ryan) created:
House Speaker Paul Ryan put to rest any lingering hopes that he would jump into the Republican presidential race on Tuesday, saying in a press conference at the Republican National Committee headquarters, “count me out.”
“Let me be clear: I do not want, nor will I accept the Republican nomination,” Ryan said. “I am not going to be our party’s nominee.”
“If no candidate has a majority on the first ballot, I believe that you should only choose from a person who has actually participated in the primary. Count me out,” he said.
Of course, the wannabe granny starver played coy about the House speakership too, yet there he is. This statement today sounds pretty definitive, though. And at least House Speaker is a real job with a nice office. Ryan probably realizes if the party shoe-horns him onto the ticket for November, he’ll go down in flames more spectacularly than his epic plunge as Romney’s wingman.
Speaking of Romney, will he be the next white knight? Or will the Republicans resign themselves to choosing between a white nationalist demagogue, a universally loathed fundamentalist shit-stain or a bland, mealy-mouthed jackass who only managed to carry his own state?
H/T: TPM
Trabb's Boy
Trump promised him VP
Iowa Old Lady
@Trabb’s Boy: You say that as if it were a good thing.
smintheus
There’s always the lunkhead college dropout, if you’re looking for somebody who didn’t actually participate in the primaries.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
all the Village chatter I’ve seen on this assumes that Trump and Cruz are going to put on Ryan ’16 buttons and get all Alphonse and Gaston showing Ryan up the steps to the podium in Cleveland. I figured Ryan was too smart to buy into it. He’s young enough to wait out the chaos and continue to build up inexhaustible reserves of Beltway admiration. I still think he’s lighter than a dry leaf, but maybe he’ll grow out of that
If Christie had been smart enough to sit this round out, and barring any indictments from the Bridge/Port Authority thing, he could have probably played them even better while getting rich on the sidelines.
Major Major Major Major
I think it’s gonna be Cruz. He’s stuffed all the state delegations with loyal ratfvckers who will flip on ballot 2.
dr. bloor
@Trabb’s Boy: Eh, you can be the dingleberry on the Top Guy’s ass only so many times before even your friends and allies realize you’re nothing but a dingleberry.
CONGRATULATIONS!
@Trabb’s Boy: Speaker of the House is the second most powerful position in US politics. Ryan isn’t stupid enough to drop that for four years of listening to Donald grunting next door in the Oval Office with his hired vagina of the day.
And whoever gets stuck with the presidency for the next four years is going to be in for a world of misery in which nothing gets done, knowing they’ll go down in history as the Carter of the 21st century. The only prize here – and it is worth it for this alone – is Supreme Court picks. That’s it. Ryan took a look at the big picture and decided, rightly, that his current gig is as good as it gets for him. For now. He’ll run again, but not this cycle and probably not next.
@Major Major Major Major: Nailed it. Exactly what Cruz has done. Trump has no idea how this works. Cruz does. If Trump doesn’t have a clear, overwhelming majority of delegates by convention time, and he won’t, he should just pack it in and watch the mayhem from his club in Florida.
Poopyman
I gots yer Preznit Ryan right here.
ETA: Needs moar corndog.
Mnemosyne
Please, is anyone surprised that Ryan is running away from the impending train wreck as fast as his CrossFit legs can carry him? He’s an asshole, but he’s not stupid.
I say it again: it’s going to be Alan Keyes. Bank on it, libs.
NotMax
On to the more important* question of convention fashion.
What will the well-dressed* Republican woman be wearing in Cleveland?
Past examples: #1 – #2
*Not meant to be a factual description.
:)
Mike in DC
I think Mitt will take himself off the table as well. Nobody wants to be a sacrificial nominee who will be reviled by the base and go down in flames in the general election.
Well, Kasich kinda does, I guess.
jl
@NotMax: Does Ike have a chance this time? He’d be pretty good. How is he playing it?
Iowa Old Lady
@Mnemosyne: Are you still waiting?
Lex
He’s lying. You don’t blow off Budget Resolution Week as Speaker of the House if you’re not gunning for something bigger.
Served
Wait so if there isn’t a clear winner, we could have to Republican Pres/VP teams out campaigning at the same time? Don’t presumptive nominees usually announce running mates a week or two before the convention?
My other question is if they go with Ryan at the convention as a white knight, where will his campaign apparatus come from? I doubt any of the current campaigns’ staffs will be all to enthused about being usurped.
Trollhattan
I counted Ryan out the first time I heard him open his yap, but maybe that’s just me.
John
You know what I fear? That Trump’s new delegate wrangler will manage the win at the convention and then Trump will convince Bernie Sanders to join him as running mate on a “Screw the Insiders” ticket. Also, provides Trump with impeachment protection, as the Repubs will never actively work to put a self-proclaimed Socialist in the Oval Office.
Keith G
@Major Major Major Major: I would bet that you are correct on that. Cruz has done the legwork to have some institutional support within delegations going to the convention. If Trump does not have the minimum required and if they can survive the hand-to-hand combat that may occur, Cruz will come out with the nomination. That seems to me to be the most likely outcome although certainly not a guaranteed one.
Now, assuming that happens, does he offer the VP slot to Kasich?
Edit
@John: You fear that? Tell me, just where are you buying your weed?
dr. bloor
@jl: He’s laying low until he can seize control of the Republican BRAAAIIINStrust.
Trollhattan
Betty, come down into the comments and sprinkle us with green–it will seem like springtime with the trees leafing out. You could tell us what the boxers are up to.
Jeffro
Let Ryan come on in, that’ll go over well with Trump and Cruz and Kaisch and all their supporters…
I don’t see any realistic way the GOP doesn’t crack in two at this point.
Trollhattan
@dr. bloor:
Level of difficulty rank is between organizing the sock drawer and changing the awhl on the Eff-Two-Fiddy.
Poopyman
@John: What are you smoking? That must be some pretty bad shit.
Jeffro
@John: I’m sorry but this is one of the less well thought-out worries I’ve seen in some time. Sanders signing on to a Trump ticket under any circumstances? Step back and look at that for a second.
p.a.
@Trabb’s Boy: David Duke will be pissed…
eponymous coward
Ryan probably realizes if the party shoe-horns him onto the ticket for November, he’ll go down in flames more spectacularly than his epic plunge as Romney’s wingman.
This is the credited answer. There’s no reason why you don’t patiently wait until 2020 or (worst case) 2024 when the alternative is the eternal hate of the Trump and Cruz fans for screwing them out of their chance.
Trump and Cruz right now control enough more than 1237 delegates, so I think it’s highly probable the convention will adopt a rule, as Ryan suggests, that says “nobody who didn’t compete in the primary gets to be the nominee”, which is actually a smart thing to do. The GOP poobahs shutting it down for someone else who didn’t even bother to be in the primaries isn’t gonna end well for whoever decides to drink from that poisoned chalice.
Brachiator
Back in the day, Nixon was tanned, rested and ready.
Romneybot 2016 is charged, upgraded and lubricated.
You just know he is hot for another chance at running for the presidency.
Chris
Is it possible that Ryan is one of the few highly visible Republican politicians with the common sense to realize that running as a Republican candidate right now, with the party held captive by a fanatic, impossible-to-overcome voter base that’s increasingly falling out of step with the rest of the country, is a very bad gamble? And that he himself isn’t that great a candidate in the first place?
Or is my wishful thinking, desperately wanting to believe that there’s still a sentient Republican out there, giving him too much credit?
Trollhattan
@Jeffro:
My self-torture question: are the Republicans too incompetent to truly fuck up their party?
It’s the closest I come to a koan.
Turgidson
Meh, he can still take the nomination if the party publicly begs him at the convention.
I think the rumors of Paul Ryan being a smart person have been greatly overstated, but he does seem to have a knack for political self-preservation and is able to trick the Beltway Media into taking him seriously no matter what he does. He’ll “reluctantly accept” the nomination if he thinks he has a decent chance of winning, but I highly doubt he’ll believe that, given how fractured the party would be after such a coup. He’d rather keep his 2020 options open, hoping to run against an unpopular incumbent (Hillary being Hillary, she’ll probably be at least somewhat unpopular even if she’s doing a great job), aided by a 3-terms-of-Democrats-fatigued electorate. And, FSM help us all, he would have a chance in that environment, especially given how hard the Village would try to boost him and drag down Hillary, two of their favorite pastimes.
I find the idea of the “GOP establishment” (which appears to be an imaginary concept to begin with) stealing the nomination from not one but two frontrunners who actually rounded up millions of votes and hundreds of delegates to be utterly preposterous. Even if they tried to do it, I think Trump and Tailgunner Ted would work together to block any such shenanigans.
And even if they somehow do succeed, the nominee will be faced with Trump turning over the playing board and walking off with both birds flipped, telling his voters to write him in or vote for LaRouche or whatever out of spite. Tailgunner Ted might have enough concern for his future prospects to play ball, but I’m not sure about that, and his voting army of theocratic morons probably won’t fall in line as supinely as usual.
They’re fucked no matter what. Either they nominate a candidate no one likes (Cruz) a candidate a few demented dolts, but no one else, like (Trump), or they force a nominee on the base by convention coup. In all outcomes, there are droves of really pissed off GOP voters who are tempted to go 3rd party or sit out. Which should mean President Hillary Clinton and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (I’d prefer someone else, but what can you do) come January.
NotMax
@Jeffro
Well, they could announce that Gore really won in 2000, so Dubya’s first term doesn’t count and therefore he’s eligible for another.
;)
Trollhattan
@Brachiator:
I can hear Romneybot 3.0 now. “Why shucks fellows, do you really think it would be a good idea for me to run again? Gosh, I don’t know chums, I’ll have to think about it, and ask Ann and the boys.” [Several seconds pass.] “Doggone it, I’ll do it!“
kindness
Considering I don’t believe anything out of Lyin’ Ryan’s mouth I have grave doubts that he would turn down the nomination if it was thrust upon him to ‘save’ the Republican Party.
NotMax
@Brachiator
Well, Boehner has the tanned thing down.
Just sayin’. ;)
p.a.
@NotMax: ??? For Rethugs, ‘W’ stands for “who? I’m not familiar with that, uh, politician? Politician you say?”
edit: I missed the ;) hiding down there!
Keith G
@Chris: Paul Ryan can do nothing, do not one thing at all, and next year be one of the most powerful humans in Washington DC, second in line to be president. Why in the hell would he get into this feces fest that is the Republican Presidential contest?
Bill
Trump is getting to 1237 before Cleveland.
All this talk of an “open convention” is just the masturbatory fantasies of columnists and talking heads.
smith
Given that Ryan has been very ostentatiously actin’ all presidential-like lately, and is known to have recently conferred with the big money men, I think he was up for it, but got cold feet. My guess is that the R establishment is resigned to going with either Trump or Cruz because even they can see the alternative is unacceptably bloody. I think we can consider this announcement the establishment’s concession speech.
Chris
@CONGRATULATIONS!:
And in that case, I really really really hope Trump has the courage – okay, the vanity, pettiness, and injured sense of entitlement – to run third party, or at least to encourage his voters to do a massive write-in campaign. It would be the perfect conclusion to his scorched-earth primary campaign against the entire rest of the Republican Party.
I fear he won’t.
Trollhattan
@Turgidson:
The lazy arm of the media (most of them) need Ryan to be a wonk and so have declared Ryan to be the Republican wonk. Pro tip, guys: anybody who reveres “Atlas Shrugged” to the point he has his staff read it is not, cannot ever be a wonk. The end.
Chris
@Keith G:
Good point.
p.a.
@Trollhattan: and later on: “gosh, you know they’re up to, what, 48, 49%?”
Archon
If Republican delegates are really on some “[email protected] these primary voters, here’s what were doing”, then they might as well give the nomination to Kasich. Ted Cruz is the personification of the idiom, “frying pan into the fire”.
Tim C.
On ZEGS:
CASCA: I can as well be hanged as tell the manner of it. It was mere foolery. I did not mark it. I saw Mark Antony offer him a crown (yet ’twas not a crown neither, ’twas one of these coronets) and, as I told you, he put it by once—but, for all that, to my thinking, he would fain have had it.
Bill
If the Republicans are going to hand the nomination to a Speaker Of The House, they really should go with Hastert. That would be the perfect cherry on top of this Republican primary sundae.
Germy
@Trollhattan:
Can Roger Ailes make a candidate so heavy that even he himself can’t lift it?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Trollhattan: I imagine for Willard the dream is to be not just President, but the Trump-Slayer, riding in on that White Horse. And the terror is being remembered not just as the two-time loser, but the loser whose political corpse got walked over by Trump. What would Tripp-Trapp-Trag’s chances be then?
ET
@CONGRATULATIONS!: I doubt Trump’s ego or his pride will let him just sit on the sidelines after it has gone this far. Also, his personality is a bit comparable to a 5 year old’s who will cry and stop and take his toys (and other if he can) home if he is denied.
I think the granny starver is smart enough to know he is young enough to have a much longer career in politics. Getting involved anymore than he absolutely has in the presidential election is not good for his long-term prospects. He wants to be the last man standing and the grown up when this all shakes out. Getting on the ballot in any way and being too affiliated with any one candidate and hot mess of this cycle is poison. Early in Obama’s term and even though Romney he may have seen this election cycle as a good chance but he watch the news and I can’t help but think he has decided he is young enough to bide his time.
smith
@Bill: Don’t forget Newt’s also waiting in the wings.
Princess
It’s going to be Trump/Cruz. Bank on it, libs.
Hoodie
Ryan has the most secure sinecure in GOP land right now, as the GOP majority in the House is firmly cemented in by gerrymandering. He knows what a fustercluck it is being speaker with the yahoos in his own caucus, so he probably can imagine the nightmare of being a candidate emerging from a brokered convention full of disaffected Trump and Cruz supporters. My guess is that the establishment types like Ryan are now secretly hoping for a Trump/Cruz flameout, and will lay low in hope of reasserting control after the dumpster fire burns out.
Bill
@smith: Denny’s natural running mate.
dogwood
I don’t think he was ever considering taking the nomination. I assumed the “sorry to the poors” comments and the pseudo-presidential campaign ad we’re pr for the party. An attempt to get someone other than Trump or Cruz speaking formally for the party. He is the most powerful elected Republican, so it makes sense for the party to try to get him out there. Despite his policies being as bad as Trump and Cruz, he does seem to adhere to minimum standards of civilized behavior.
Keith G
@Bill: I think you should be given a yellow card for word choice.
Germy
@Bill:
And Hastert’s VP can be the mysterious dude who crank-called him that day on C-SPAN.
Betty Cracker
@Hoodie:
That would be the smart move.
Calouste
@John:
Susan Sarandon’s dream ticket. Illiterate/Innumerate 2016!
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@John: Oooh. That’s an evil thought.
Fortunately, I don’t think it could possibly work out that way:
1) Trump has called Bernie a “communist”. He won’t pick him.
2) The GOP won’t throw anyone with an (R) behind their name out the window unless there is absolutely no alternative. They agreed to Nixon being pushed out, but never would have agreed to forcing Reagan or W to resign.
3) Bernie would never agree to it anyway. Trump’s a (self-proclaimed, anyway) Billionaire™ for crying out loud – it would destroy Bernie’s brand for all time.
But who would Trump pick for impeachment protection? Hmm… Someone stupid could be thought of as easily manipulated, so they might view that as a good thing. Someone smart? A smart Republican? Is there such a thing these days? ;-) Maybe there isn’t anyone, so he’d rely on #2 above.
I still think Trump would want to pick a woman out of some sort of high-powered industry job, but someone like that is usually smart enough not to cut their throat like that. So, he’d probably end up picking a candidate like Perot did – a retired “hero” from the military that he could control. Maybe Ann Dunwoody, but that assumes that she could tolerate Trump’s politics….
We’ll see.
Cheers,
Scott.
jl
@dr. bloor: Opening for Baud! 2016! at GOP convention, then.
Trollhattan
@Princess:
Heh, I’d actually pay extra to watch that in 3-D.
Trump and Cruz couldn’t so much as agree on pizza toppings, much less run as candidates on the same ticket. Plus, since Trump already hoovered up all the morons and the god-botherers will stay home rather than vote for him, what would Cruz bring to the table–stump speeches by his lunatic dad?
Calouste
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet:
Sanders is 74. All time is not as long as long as you might think.
Germy
@Calouste: Look at Jimmy Carter.
piratedan
I’m sure that in the time of crisis, the party may have to turn its pleading gaze to Jeb!, who will be caught unawares due to being busy reading My Pet Goat to a bunch of federal prisoners…..
MattF
And the Politico anonymous source who estimated Ryan’s probability of being the nominee at 54%? I guess someone just pissed in his Wheaties. Ryan is being smart.
Turgidson
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet:
I have a hunch Trump would try to get Condi Rice to be his VP. And even though my opinion of Condi Rice is about as low as is humanly possible, I think she’d politely decline that offer – not wanting to run with a racist douchebag who makes Condi’s former boss look like Abe Lincoln.
Trump would definitely look into finding a respectable ex-military figure to be his running mate too. Like if the GOP had its own version of Wes Clark or something. Petraeus could have been that guy, but he decided to have classified pillow talk with his mistress and all that went out the window.
Princess
@Trollhattan: He’ll bring his delegates and his voters. With Trump’s 40% and Cruz’s 30% they’ll do okay and actually hold on to more of the down ballot than either would alone. Cruz will be Trump’s Cheney (I mean, if they could get elected which they won’t be). What Trump and Cruz have in common are a) lots of delegates and b) knowledge that the rest of the party elite hates them and is out to destroy them. Only by sticking together will either come out a winner. Cruz is going to to badly in the next primaries. And Cruz and Trump, relatively speaking have not attacked each other in any kind of permanently damaging way (Okay, except for the bit about their wives, but neither one thinks wives are all that important. And Trump did sort of apologize, which was telling.). It is the only outcome that makes sense for them and for the party. Of course, these are the people who’d choose anthrax and tire rims, so making sense is not their strong suit.
rikyrah
The check must not have been large enough for Ryan.
Turgidson
@Trollhattan:
I think the motivation behind Cruz as VP would be precisely that – to give the God-botherers motivation to hold their noses and vote for Trump. I don’t think that ticket would have a chance in hell, but there’s at least some logic that it would stand the best chance to unify the GOP’s braindead base.
NR
@Jeffro: Don’t you read the comments here? Bernie Sanders is evil incarnate, a racist, a sexist, and a right-winger. Of course he’ll join a ticket with Trump. That was probably his plan all along, after spending the last 40 years of his life pretending to be a progressive so that he would be in position to attack Hillary from the left in 2016 and throw the election to the Republicans by single-handedly making over half the country dislike her and two-thirds think that she isn’t honest or trustworthy.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@Calouste: Yeahbut, Bernie’s brand is intended to survive Bernie.
He (and many on the left) think that there are huge masses of people out there who are liberals but just don’t know it. A few speeches, pointing out the “reality” of politics, and they’ll jump aboard the bandwagon. They agree with him on some/many/most issues that Bernie campaigns on, therefore they’ll vote for him. If he only gets out there and reminds them of his positions, he can’t lose. It’s obvious, right? If he does lose, well, that just means the timing was wrong – he’s laid the foundation for someone to follow him.
That line of thinking has some appeal, and polls have shown that people really do like a lot of left-of-center positions and policies, but (as Frank’s WTMWK? book showed) people vote on much more than a few policy positions. As much as we would like it not to be the case, liberals are a minority in the USA. The only way to move things in a more liberal direction is via incremental steps with a team that includes some people that we don’t really like on many/some/most issues.
If Bernie destroys his brand, it would make it even harder for liberals in the future than it is right now. He’s an ideas guy (he’s not an implementation guy – that’s for sure!). He wants the ideas to live on long after he and Hillary have left the scene.
Cheers,
Scott.
Baud
“Let me be clear: I do want, and will accept the Democratic nomination,” Baud! said. “I am going to be our party’s nominee.”
John
@Keith G: I fear weed. jk.
Nah, I doubt Bernie would take the offer, but pride and a sense of betrayal have led to unthinkable things in the past. I do expect that if Trump comes out of the convention with the nomination and ANY acceptable (to the wingnuts) running mate, he can expect a House investigation into his business dealings with organized crime within six months of inauguration, followed rapidly by impeachment proceedings. The question then is whether Senate Dems will force the Republicans to play it as it lies or will allow them the mulligan.
dlm
He doesn’t want the presidency because he would have to work weekends.
Baud
@dlm:
Wait, what?!?
Ked
I really was expecting Trump/Cruz, right up until they started bashing each others’ wife. There are some lines you can’t step backwards over on this level. When I first read the post above, I spent about five seconds thinking that Sanders would make a frightening amount of sense… but that would mean that Sanders would have to address the Rethuglican convention. Yeah, I can’t imagine that turning out well. Or at all. Though it would be entertaining.
I can see where the military-guy trope makes sense, but I really expect something that is perceived as tacking back towards Republican establishment sensibilities while also being someone Trump feels is completely under his control. Which is why I expect Trump/Christie.
Cruz will choose someone utterly horrific that I’ve never encountered before.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud: that was one of his excuses (and conditions) about the Speaker’s job, he didn’t want to be flying around fund-raising on weekends because he has young children
Rand Careaga
@NR:
Geez, give it a rest.
Lurking Canadian
@Tim C.: Did this, in Ryan, seem ambitious? Yet, Romney told you Ryan was ambitious. And Romney is an honourable man!
J R in WV
I heard Congressman Ryan tell us he would not accept the Presidency live on my Sat Radio while running errands.
But, Betty C.! You believed him? Why? He’s never told the truth before!
starscream
100% setting himself up for 2020 or 2024.
Jeffro
@Trollhattan:
Well, I think it’s excellent.
And unfortunately the answer is yes: they’re so screwed up they can’t realize that their only salvation might be…MIGHT be…in leaving Trump the smoking shell of the old GOP
Jeffro
@NotMax:
Why not, right? In the right-wing mind, Reagan caused the Clinton boom years, Clinton (or maybe Gore, or possibly even Obama) was president on 9/11 but only for a day, because effective 9/12 W kept us all safe.
Oh and the economy crashed on Obama’s watch back in 2007-2008, while the past 7 straight years of job growth and 5 years of lower health-care costs are strictly due to the GOP holding the line on the “stimulus”
It’s a marvel, trying to keep up with Republican chronology…
Jeffro
@NR:
Wait, why would I do that?
yeah, yeah, I get yer drift…can we all get back to the next page of the “kicking the Republicans’ a$$ playbook”, please?
TriassicSands
First, let me clarify that I don’t think Kasich is a moderate or should be elected to any office whatsoever.
That said, I do want to point out that failing to get votes in a Republican primary these days does not automatically mean the candidate is bad. It could mean the candidate is a sane person with rational ideas about government. Or, at least it could if there were anyone like that in the Modern Republican Party.
I think that if no candidate gets a majority on the first ballot in Cleveland, the Republicans should turn to either Pat McGrory or Phil Bryant to head the ticket.
TriassicSands
On second thought, if either McGrory or Bryant won’t accept the nomination, the GOP should turn to Sam Brownback. He can bring his Kansas economic miracle to the whole country.
david10
@Chris: Trump may win the nom. but Cruz will write the platform-and it will be hateful. The fantasy wish list of every wingnut.
Grumpy Code Monkey
I think Ryan realizes that there be literal blood on the floor if the GOP picks a candidate who didn’t campaign in the primary. The best case scenario for the GOP right now is for Cruz the nominee, take another dive on the Presidency, and hold on to both the House and Senate (this is also the most likely scenario IMO; basically, a repeat of the last four years).
Best case scenario for the rest of us is for Trump to be the nominee and to tank so badly that it flips the Senate in the process. Not holding my breath for that one, though.