A friend in NY voted for one of the D candidates, but none of the pledged delegates, because she didn’t know who they were and didn’t realize the delegates elect the candidate. So what happens to this vote? What does it count towards?
@burnspbesq: I really really love Conforto. Moving him into the 3 slot was a smart move.
17.
Schlemazel (parmesan rancor)
Too bad Cleveland lost its NHL team. The Barons vs the (commie) Stars could then cover both sports and the primary!!
And in the spirit engendered by the days threads please let me be the first to say, no matter which team/candidate you support you are an asshole, now fuck off!
“Last night I watched the Warriors on my laptop, the Giants on my iPad, and the Sharks on my phone. We are living in the future.”
I was doing likewise, on different devices. Had hoped for better than one out of three.
19.
JPL
@burnspbesq: Amazing that they scored three times more, the second qtr. MA friends and I stayed in midtown ten days ago when the Celts were in town. Rode several times on the elevator with a few of them. My friend is 5’9″ and she was taller than Thomas. just sayin
20.
amk
Go Hillary. Go Sportz.
21.
Hal
@Ivan X: Same. I had no idea who these people were, but I thought it was interesting they were divided by male and female. I picked three women and then stopped realizing I didn’t know who they were. Bad me.
But this is a sports thread so how about a real sport? Figure skating! I watched the 30 for 30 ESPN documentary on the Tonya Harding/Nancy Harrigan affair on Netflix and it was really interesting. definitely worth the watch.
@LAO: Strongly agree. That middle of the order is now a minefield for opposing pitchers. So odd to see the Mets hit homers, been scarce the past few years.
@burnspbesq:
It’s Rafa Benitez. If anyone can keep them up in the EPL, he’s the man.
34.
jl
Glad to see Cole acknowledge on this miserable lefty blog that NBA exists.
But, a mistake in the post title. Warriors played last night. Nothing of consequence going on in NBA playoffs today.
35.
lamh36
@burnspbesq: Denzel has a way of doing what other cannot.
Hello…The Equalizer!
36.
The Other Chuck
I just finished a reminder item I had dicated to my phone. The reminder was, I am not kidding:
“Take out the trash what the fuck siri you are so fucking useless oh there it is now”
37.
Brachiator
@burnspbesq: Wasn’t Cabrera the name of the baddie in Magnificent Seven?
38.
Ivan X
@Hal:
The crazy thing is that I only had a vague idea that I was supposed to vote for the delegates because I read this dumb blog and others. How’s the casual voter supposed to understand this shit?
39.
dmsilev
@efgoldman: Movie samurai are like ninjas; their collective combat prowess is inversely proportional to their total number. One samurai: Untouchable badass. 1000 samurai: Cannon fodder.
Depends on what you consider the original. There are plenty of folks who think “Seven Samurai” is better.
Plus I think the Western is about to go through another revival thanks to “Django Unchained.” It’s unfortunate that Tarantino screwed up his own Western, but I think other people are going to be able to pick it up and run with it where he failed.
47.
WarMunchkin
Hi BJ, live from the HRC event in Times Square. Bill will be here.
I think “Django Unchained” revealed how much of the Western genre is devoted to romanticizing the Confederacy and the “Lost Cause.” That thread has never really gone away, and even got amplified a bit by the spaghetti westerns and similar (“The Outlaw Josey Wales,” I’m looking at you). I will be very interested to see who else can deconstruct the Western genre by bringing that valorizing of Confederates out into the light and examining it.
@burnspbesq: Agree that there are some things that one shouldn’t try to top. Ray Charles’ rendition of America the Beautiful and Brubeck’s Take Five spring readily to mind.
61.
A Ghost To Most
@burnspbesq:
Did you see the futbol thread upstairs?
62.
Elie
Just discovered the wonder of the song sparrow — which apparently sings in the evening too! Beautiful run of warbles with a little whistle at the end. Yes indeed — the best things in life are free or only cost the time to appreciate and wonder… Here is to outcomes and the future — but also to our continued solidarity to do what needs to be done — to literally save the republic this fall!!!! May we all be up the task and have the capacity for work that it might take. Let me put out my fist to you for your hand on top of mine — YAY Democrats!!!!!!
63.
dmsilev
@Brachiator: Wasn’t that the “remake” that was so close to the original that it sparked a lawsuit from Kurosawa against Leone?
@burnspbesq: In the hands of great filmmaker like Fuqua and Denzel, I would expect a pretty good film. Where you keep same premise, and reshape it with a different sensibility and take my a great actor….if any director and actor an do so, I’d def put my money on these two.
Fuqua and Denzel is always a good bet
ETA: Trailer hits tomorrow…I’ll try to post it when it does
67.
gex
@Hal: At least here in MN, the D delegates were supposed to be balanced by gender. Maybe that’s the case there too?
68.
Mike J
What could go wrong?
DENVER (AP) — A suburban Denver school district is arming its security staff with military-style semiautomatic rifles in case of a school shooting or other violent attack, a move that appears unprecedented even as more schools arm employees in response to mass violence elsewhere.
69.
dedc79
@burnspbesq: The 2016 Mets are starting to look more like the 2015 Mets (in a good way)
70.
Betty Cracker
Well, shit. I’d hoped Clinton had crushed Sanders so thoroughly that they’d announce HRC as the projected winner at 9:00 when the polls closed. No such luck.
71.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
The NY Times says the AP says Donnie won with 0% in.
@Elie: I have. Spoke with my dad at length last week, and I think I may have turned a corner of sorts. Last weekend was the first one I’ve spent alone without feeling depressed. Work in progress…
@WarMunchkin:
I just checked 538. They said the early exit polls had Clinton leading only by 4%, both a better performance than expected for Sanders, and a loss he can’t afford. We’ll see.
@AlGiordano AlGiordano Retweeted Margi MacMurdo-Readi
Class is in session. CNN has motive to keep people tuning in. Especially because the GOP race is so lopsided.
84.
LAO
Damn it!
85.
burnspbesq
Six scoreless innings for Verett. He did his job and then some.
86.
Davis X. Machina
@Mike J: I’m worrying about the inmates getting ahold of the guards’ weapons.
87.
patroclus
@Technocrat: The last polls showed a range between 6 and 17 points.
Some good news from NY exit polls. I hope true for the rest of the coutry.
Exit Poll Shows NY Dems Energized By Nomination Contest, GOP Divided
TPM blog
Two-thirds of Democratic voters say the contest between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has energized the party. But GOP voters hold the opposite view, saying their party has been divided…
…
Nearly 6 in 10 New York Republican voters say their party has been divided by the nomination process, while only 3 in 10 Democratic voters say the same about their party’s primaries. Only 4 in 10 GOP voters say they’ve been energized, exit polls show.
In the Democratic primary, about 7 in 10 supporters of each candidate said that they would definitely or probably vote for the other candidate if he or she became the party’s nominee. Voters are about evenly split on whether Clinton or Sanders is more inspiring.
Sorry to tell you, and any other Boston-area Juicers who were hoping for a get-together this weekend — well, obviously, the meetup can still happen, but without me. Long story short, I lost my footing/balance while going downstairs yesterday, did most of the flight bounce-bounce-bounce, landing on my tailbone, and am quite sore in the bum and lower back. Sore enough that I couldn’t face the 15-16 hours behind the wheel. I’m sure nothing is broken, but I’m pretty bruised and tender and have trouble sitting or staying in any one position for five minutes at a time. Yes, Advil; yes, Epsom salts bath; and yes, if there’s no improvement soon I’ll go to a doctor.
Disappointed about the cancelled (or at least postponed) trip, but there will surely be other opportunities. Wanted to make sure you knew in case you were holding the weekend.
107.
PsiFighter37
No idea what the exit poll numbers come out to, but Tad Devine is cheering on his bank account.
108.
Schlemazel (parmesan rancor)
@efgoldman:
I saw that & know I feel a lot safer now . . . they are 800 miles away.
@PsiFighter37: Sanders outspent Hillary on the air, and campaign consultants don’t get paid for opening field offices, or even winning. Just spending money on ads.
113.
lamh36
@daveweigel now7 seconds ago
So Cruz, the man the GOP is allegedly uniting around, may come out of NY with 0 delegate
What would qualify as a thumping? 10% certainly, but 4-6% is just a loss, I think. Assuming she can hold those margins. Brooklyn is surprisingly close.
@jl:
We are Democrats, we are not happy unless we are kicking the shit out of each other.
118.
Dr. McCoy
@amk: It can’t be that big a spread, CNN has it at 4 right now.
119.
dmsilev
@amk: Big dosh of votes just came in; NYT has it at 15% reporting, still 62-38. As a side note, that 38% represents roughly 4x as many votes as Trump has right now.
120.
patroclus
Clinton 61 Sanders 39 15%.
Now 62-38 again 21%. A lead of about 90,000, and growing.
@Dr. McCoy:
538 just noted that the numbers coming out of NYC so far are way out of line with the exit polls. We’ll just have to see. Maybe the Clinton areas came in first. It happens.
123.
eemom
The bernouts are gonna be screaming “disenfranchisement.” Mark ye well my words.
Besides the $65,000 Georgia paid, the school also picked up the tab for local ground transportation. The payment was due the day of the event. Ebonyson Management represented Ludacris.
There were other items listed including four greek strained yogurts (mixed flavors), 1 box of Trojan Magnum Condoms (excstasty), two bottles of Belvedere Vodka and a case of Nico Coconut Water.
126.
different-church-lady
@Frankensteinbeck: Well, either that or the exit polls are way out of line with the numbers coming out of NYC.
They’re playing eye of the tiger. Lots of energy and people doing the wave. Also, I didnt get in the drink line so I’m sober. No Hills Bill or Cheslea yet
129.
Technocrat
From 538:
There was a lot of blood spilled over how a few Republican voters could have a big sway in New York’s 15th congressional district in the overwhelmingly Democratic Bronx. Well, 8 percent of District 15 is now reporting. Trump is leading 14 to 8 over Cruz, with Kasich at just 4. Just to be clear — that’s actual number of votes, not percentages
The idea of Trump’s 168 Bronx supporters cracks me up.
I have some pretty good guesses on how exit polls get effed up.. You are trying to stop one out of every 10 New Yorkers trying to get away from their polling station, and ask who they voted for. Who is going to stop, and who is going to say eff you..
And now they’ve put the CNN feed on screen, huge cheers.
Probably the most applause CNN is going to get all year.
141.
Cacti
Bern losing all 5 boroughs. Staten Island is the only one within single digits.
142.
magurakurin
@Brachiator: You know, I always thought that Sergio Leone had credited Kurosawa in that film, but he never did. He insisted to the end that it was an original movie based on an old Italian story. Clearly, Fist Full of Dollars is Yojimbo. So, since he never gave credit, it should be called a rip off…as much as I love both movies. Now, The Last Man Standing…that is a remake that credits Kurosawa. But, The Magnificent Seven is my favorite movie all time…on most days.
143.
patroclus
@amk: Even Sanders is blowing Trump away. I hope we hear the same media blather about turnout that we’ve heard all Spring. The Dems came out!
144.
lamh36
Just happened to flip past MSNBC…
Is that Marla Maples daughter standing behind Trump? She looks like her mother
Yes, I honestly think I’d know if I were dealing with a cracked coccyx or splintered sacroiliac. But I’m not stupid, and I promise I’ll see one of those, how you call them? doctors, if I’m not feeling much better in a day or two. Promise.
I hope the exist polls are wrong. I want a Southern States’ type of thumping for Bernie and his obnoxious campaign. I want them destroyed.
I went from being a Berniac to leaning Hillary because of electibility but still liking Bernie into loathing him when he started with his “if only the black vote in the south was last” crap and then moved to wanting to destroy the democratic party. How can he do this crap when the neo-Confederate party wants to turn America into a dystopian theocracy? I guess he doesn’t care and that’s why I started loathing Bernie and his revolution.
148.
dmsilev
@Technocrat: Is that saying that the NY Asshole vote is disproportionately going to Clinton? She’s got it made then.
Even Sanders is blowing Trump away. I hope we hear the same media blather about turnout that we’ve heard all Spring. The Dems came out!
Sanders is down by 142k votes, but still has more votes than all 3 GOPers combined.
154.
different-church-lady
Yeah, this is just great: now if Sanders loses by anything more than 4% we get another couple of interminable weeks of the Black Night screaming about disenfranchisement.
@patroclus: GOP is nothing in New York. Working Families Party has more members.
157.
Ivan X
@jl:
The fact that San Franciscans refer to it as such is just one of many manfestations of its residents’ inflated sense of its actual significance.
158.
cbear
OT in the OT– Dunno how many of you have seen the trailer(s) for the upcoming Key & Peele movie “Keanu”, but they are hilarious–and Keanu the cat is beyond cute.
@Frankensteinbeck: No, I checked through Google. Nancy Kerrigan.
167.
jl
@Cacti: New York is a den of commies. I graciously and mercifully allow NYC to be referred to as ‘the City’.
However, The City, will still vote in the California primary. But, didn’t mean to be an SF Bay Area asshole. Sorry.
168.
patroclus
Clinton! 8:41 p.m. CDT.
169.
Tinare
Final score: “whiny, underperforming” Penguins 3 – Rangers 1
A) 538 says that if the exit polls turn out to be wildly wrong, that’s not weird, but actually common.
B) I cannot believe Kasich is going to take a single borough in New York after the ‘The Passover’ fiasco.
191.
Davis X. Machina
For a nation which wanted to revive a sluggish blood by running very fast and in any direction, Liberalism was clearly an inconvenient burden.
George Dangerfield, The Strange Death of Liberal England
Thank you, all, for good wishes and advice. Elie, yes, the surprise and instant loss of dignity — even though no one else was around to witness my humiliation — were the worst of it. I hate feeling so stupid. And clumsy. And old.
Good advice. And ice…. (though I don’t like ice for me but many do)
I tend to like an Epsom salts bath best — it relaxes and helps with the pain of any bruises..
214.
dmsilev
@Cacti: Well, NYC is in the deep south of NYS. Does that help any?
215.
Baud
@WarMunchkin: I’m staying up for the speech. Hope it’s soon.
216.
TheBuhJaysus
I’m looking for the trifecta of HRC, Blackhawks and Cubs wins.
217.
Amaranthine RBG
@Mnemosyne: Yes, it is a shame that Tarantino screwed up his western Django Unchained.
I really liked his musical, The Hateful Eight, though.
I will be very interested to see who else can deconstruct the Western genre by bringing that valorizing of Confederates out into the light and examining it.
There was some of that in the Wild Wild West movie, but that’s probably not what you’re looking for. I can’t think of anything in that movie that anyone would be looking for, except perhaps the niche “Kenneth Branagh chews scenery” fans.
221.
raven
@SiubhanDuinne: It’s been a year since I almost cut my finger off carrying a plate of chicken to the grill. Shit happens.
222.
Renie
can you believe this b.s. empire state bldg lit up red for trump victory
223.
BillinGlendaleCA
@jl: The rock or the community of Eagle Rock, Hey, what to you have against it’s neighbor to the west, a real city, Glendale.
tool anderson cooper – donald dreck got just 50 k votes so far. Even bs got 175 k
Ah, but if you look at percentages, Trump is running at 63% and Hillary only has 60%, so by pundit math the Democrats lost and this will be the year New York goes Republican.
231.
CaseyL
@SiubhanDuinne: Oh, ouch! It’s good that you’re pretty sure no bones are broken. But: Soft tissue injuries usually don’t make themselves known for a day or two after the incident, so stay careful and keep an eye on yourself.
232.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@SiubhanDuinne: Glad you’re Ok, but get checked out when you can.
Don’t be hard on yourself. Falling on stairs isn’t limited to the old. I missed the bottom basement step a few weeks ago and instantly was on my knees and forearms (and was lucky I didn’t crack my head). My step-mom’s 50-ish physician fell on her basement stairs a few months ago and died (nobody found her for a few days)…
NYTimes thinks things will improve for Sanders as the night goes on, but only to about an 11% difference. Worth keeping an eye on. But the ‘Sanders needed a big win, and instead got a big loss’ dynamic remains unchanged.
@patroclus:
I watched that on Samantha Bee. I think descriptions left out the worst part. He asked a bunch of ultra-orthodox rabbis if they knew who Joseph was, and then proceeded to explain to them who Joseph was as if they didn’t know.
234.
jl
@BillinGlendaleCA: Simi Valley is nice. Azusa and San Dimas are suburban jewels.
Edit: the community. I don’t think the rock looks much like an eagle anymore, IMHO.
235.
? Martin
I think it’s a perfect litmus test for the state of US politics that Republicans keep talking about eliminating Common Core in order to bring education locally, when Common Core, as its name suggests, was a plan by the states to get out from under the horror of NCLB. Common Core is the local solution (and not even adopted by every state) and half the country doesn’t even realize that.
The Epsom salts work real dandy on both 1) getting you to sleep cozy and 2) getting that bad sore thing better for a little while overnight. If you don’t have any in house, a warm bath with a little baking soda will also help (I keep a large container of Epsom salts in my bathroom cabinet. It works miracles for sore anything and I’ve even used it when I was in a stressful situation… its very relaxing (magnesium sulfate) Use at least a couple of cups in warm bath and soak till it starts to cool (15 – 20 min)…
238.
raven
@efgoldman: I spent that entire day taking down a deck with a sawzall, sledge, and a breaker bar. I tripped on the front steps going to the grill.
239.
BillinGlendaleCA
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet: I don’t even require stairs, but everytime I’ve gone hiking with the kid; I end up taking a spill.
240.
? Martin
Hmm. That’s a bigger gap in Clinton’s favor that I had expected. I wonder if the closed primary hurt Sanders more than we realized.
@Baud: Try C-SPAN – they’re covering the Clinton event in full and live.
243.
dmsilev
So I guess the next question will be how the delegate allocation shakes out. Since NY does one of these things where each Congressional district gets some delegates (allocated proportionally from the votes within the district) plus a bunch of statewides, I guess it’ll be late tonight or early tomorrow before that clarifies.
244.
geg6
Well, now I need a cigarette. Hilz and Pens take New York with no mercy!
245.
Mary G
@SiubhanDuinne: I hate when that happens! I’m glad it seems to be nothing serious, but sorry you’ve had to cancel your trip. Sending healing energy your way.
246.
WarMunchkin
@Baud: They announced “the former Mayor of New York” and everyone looked around panicked thinking it would be Bloomberg
247.
BillinGlendaleCA
@jl: Slimy Valley, really(I grew up in Thousand Oaks)? You can see the eagle really well when the sun is just at the right angle.
248.
Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class
Wondering if Bernie is contemplating his lonely future existence in exile on the Committee for Naming Dams and Berms…
249.
jl
@? Martin: No matter. Common Core was implemented during the Obama administration, and therefore is of the devil, and represents the sum of all evils.
There were a few other issues and projects with a similar fate, some of them initiated by the W admin. But, that doesn’t matter now.
@SiubhanDuinne: Well, if it’s any comfort, lovely and lithe 16 yo Qunoot did the same thing coming down the stairs last week. So it’s not an old thing, as Scott said. It’s a too preoccupied thing.
251.
dmsilev
@? Martin: Expect the gap to narrow. Most of NYC, where Clinton crushed Sanders, has already reported, but upstate is apparently friendlier territory for him and has a bigger fraction of the outstanding vote.
” You can see the eagle really well when the sun is just at the right angle. ”
Sure. When the sun is just at the right angle, the smog is just the right thickness, the harley’s have just the right roar, and adobo is wafting in the air.
264.
magurakurin
@Miss Bianca: seriously, that’s going to happen? Count me in.
265.
? Martin
@dmsilev: Won’t narrow enough. From the perspective of Democrats, NYC is effectively the entire state. Its why the NY GOP is so fucking weird. They’re even more screwed up than the CA GOP, and that’s saying something.
I remember that, but can hardly believe it’s been that long!
Yeah, shit does indeed happen. My usual mantra is along the lines of “If this is the worst thing that ever happens to me, I’m a pretty lucky person.” It’s worked pretty well for me so far.
Wild Wild West is pretty much the poster child movie for producer interference. One of these days, I should see if I can track down a draft of the script that was written prior to Jon Peters deciding it needed to have a giant mechanical spider added to it.
@Technocrat: Not sure – I thought it was 291. The margin won’t be that large – maybe upwards of 17 or so but my guess is 11. The Dems’ rules just don’t allow for delegate sweeps. But I’ll freely admit it if I’m wrong. Hey – you’re the technocrat!
275.
? Martin
@lamh36: Looks really good. But holy crap, they’re going to start tossing Santa Claus roles to Vincent D’Onofrio.
276.
Renie
Now Empire State is blue for Hillary so makes it fair since they did it for tRump
Well — He’s been in a false situation in many states with open primaries (MI, WI) or with Caucuses favoring small groups. Over 30% of those voting in the Democratic primary in MI were Republicans or independents. In the WA state caucus, no requirement for being a democrat is necessary to participate — you just have to declare yourself as a Dem that day! Bernie has gotten an easy ride through territory he appropriated as a DINO “Democrat in name only”. I am truly glad it caught up with him. He got trounced in Florida also a Dems only primary.
@satby: good point. Can we stop talking about Bernie now? He’s a dead man walking. Unless he decided to run third party, he won’t be on the ballot in November. But it is looking more and more like Trump will. I’m gonna use my hateful powers against Trump from now on. Mistah Sanders — he dead.
280.
Mike J
@chopper: Right now that 20% is 200,0000 votes. Prepare to change from “2.4 million more people have voted for her” to “2.6 million more people have voted for her.” With the caveat that it’s still only 55% in. It could, in theory tighten up a bit. But Lord I hope not.
281.
SiubhanDuinne
@hedgehog mobile:
@CaseyL:
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet: Yikes, Scott!!
@Mary G:
@satby: That’s it, just not paying attention. I hope Qunoot suffered limited damage.
@geg6: I will indeed, thanks!
Everyone’s good wishes are much appreciated!
282.
Cacti
Am I the only one who finds it funny that the only place Kasich is winning is Manhattan?
Mr. Bernie promises to stay in the race and he will take his delegates to the convention to shape the Dem platform and HRC candidacy as much as he can. So there will be plenty for intra-party partisans to howl about over the next three months.
He asked a bunch of ultra-orthodox rabbis if they knew who Joseph was, and then proceeded to explain to them who Joseph was as if they didn’t know.
That was good, but I think he topped it with his remarks – outside a Jewish bakery, after having bought matzah – about how the blood of the Passover lamb is like the blood of Jesus, the Lamb of God.
You absolutely have that right and unless you factor in those little technical realities, you do not interpret results correctly. He has been living on borrowed time for a while. My guess is his funding, “laundered” from “foreign” contributors — reflect Koch/ratfck sources . also. That’s why Bernie can take fam on junket to the Vatican this week.
290.
Cacti
Clinton now up over 200,000 votes.
About 230,000 total voted in the Washington State caucuses.
She fell on her tuchus, but should probably see a doctor anyway just to make sure she didn’t do any major damage to anything else.
292.
patroclus
The percentage is narrowing – now 59-41, but the vote differential continues to grow (now 208,000). I’m expecting a barnburner from Hillz tonight (but I do miss Obama – “you know, they said this day would never come.”) This is the first night of this entire primary season that I’ve truly been excited and felt inspired!
Perfectly good form, I think, very much appreciated, and no mystery. I stepped wrong going downstairs in my apartment/townhouse yesterday and went sliding down a flight of stairs on my tail. That’s all. More ouchy than anything else. Thanks for your good wishes.
294.
magurakurin
@jl: fuck him. Ignore his ass. Trump is the enemy. Pretty sure Clinton’s response to any questions about Bernie are going to be variations on “Bernie who?”
@Ken:
I think assuming they don’t know about Joseph is worse, but the orthodox and ultra-orthodox are much more sensitive to classic smears like the blood libel than I. Goysplainin’ how they’re like Christianity is bad. Saying stuff that sounds kinda like the blood libel but isn’t is bad. Assuming they don’t know the basics of their own religion is beyond any attempt to claim honest mistake.
The Dems’ rules just don’t allow for delegate sweeps.
And that’s what makes Sander’s challenge so large. In a race to the finish scenario, the percentages in matter less than the percentages left. With ⅔ of the delegates already counted, that means Sanders needs to beat Clinton by roughly double the percentages she’s beaten him so far. He’s just running out of runway.
There’s a standard SAT problem that illustrates it well. Two cars are in a two lap race. Car 1 averages 60MPH for the two laps. Car 2 averages 30 MPH for the first lap, what does it need to average for the 2nd lap to win? The answer is that it can’t. If the lap is a mile, the first car finished the race in 2 minutes, the 2nd car took 2 minutes to do the first lap – it can’t possibly catch the first car.
When you look at it from the vantage point of averages of what’s already done, the math looks reasonable, but when you look at what’s left to complete, you realize that its much, much harder.
299.
SiubhanDuinne
Will not trace the train of thought that led me to this query, but have we ever had a Rude Limerick thread here at Balloon Juice Mansions?
Always best to be sure. My doctor was mad at me because I didn’t go see her after a minor bicycle accident left a major bruise where the handlebar hit my abdomen. Apparently I could have damaged my spleen without knowing it, though it still seems to be spleening along just fine.
ETA: I also wanted to demonstrate that I could use tuchus in a sentence despite being a goy.
The first international trip for Sanders comes just days before the New York state primary.
Sanders’s senior strategist Tad Devine said even if the senator came up short in New York, he would not regret the senator’s decision to take the trip.
“He is not going to give a political speech,” Devine said Thursday evening before CNN’s debate, “he is going to go and talk about an issue that he cares deeply about, which is a moral economy in the world, and dealing with the tremendous income and inequality not just in America but everywhere. Bernie is a tremendous admirer of Pope Francis…and he really appreciates the opportunity to speak about this on the world stage.”
Although Sanders and Pope Francis disagree on a number of social issues, Sanders often talks about his admiration of the pontiff, especially on issues of climate change, caring for the poor, and what the two men view as a growing idolatry of money in societies around the world.
The trip was organized and paid for by Sanders’ campaign.
If he didn’t give a political speech, why did his political campaign pay for it? How is talking about issues and the economy not political? Is Devine unable to see the contradictions in what he and the campaign are saying?
Bernie’s campaign people seemingly can’t tell a consistent story even when they’re not attacking Hillary as being Corrupt™ (without explicitly saying so, but too many of his supporters clearly see the intended message). They’re not doing Bernie any favors.
Cheers,
Scott.
(Who would be very nervous about trying to justify the Vatican trip under campaign finance rules if that were his job…)
About 230,000 total voted in the Washington State caucuses.
We ain’t done yet. Every time we pick delegates, we on the Hillary side gain a little bit more. County Convention May 1st, and maybe we can eek a couple more delegates out.
@SiubhanDuinne: There once was a girl from Anheuser
Who said that no man could surprise her
But Pabst took a chance
Found Schlitz in her pants
And now she is sadder, Busweiser
305.
NYCMT
In New York electoral micro-geography, my birth county (Sullivan) was screwed out of casino gambling by Donald Trump and Steve Wynn for thirty five years, until all of the Borscht Belt resorts died and left a residue of 20% unemployment and towns in a state of collapse. Tonight, seventy percent of the Republican electorate voted for Trump.
On the Dem side, Bernie took Mark Ruffalo country (aka the towns with no black people) by twenty point margins, and lost the town (Thompson) with substantial numbers of minority residents by the same amount.
The current NY Times estimate is 104-85, so a 19 delegate margin right now, but there are still a bunch of delegates that have not been allocated (58, if I count right). If this relative margin persists, Clinton will end up with 135 delegates and Sanders will have 112. If the absolute margin persists, Clinton will end up with 133 delegates and Sanders will end up with 114. The 538 delegate targets for tonight were 122 for Clinton and 125 for Sanders.
308.
magurakurin
@amk: for Bernie it ain’t…but probably pretty good value for Tad.
309.
patroclus
@randy khan: Cool – so I was wrong. It’ll be 19-23, not the 11 I guessed. That’s fine. The more the better. Now 214,000 margin 58-42. 74%. Hillary on track for one MILLLLION votes.
310.
magurakurin
@randy khan: and the killer is that 247 delegates are off the board. Sanders is done. He now can decide how he wants to lose, gracefully or ugly. It’s up to him.
More than who realized? Speak for yourself. I never doubted she’d hit a double digit win in NY.
I wasn’t sure about the size of the margin. We weren’t sure how big the open/closed effect would be.
312.
Miss Bianca
@SiubhanDuinne: Ha ha, because of course, she was a mouse! Who loved cats, in the original book. That’s hilarious! Take care of yourself – we can’t spare you!
313.
dmsilev
@patroclus: Current estimates I’m seeing (e.g. on 538’s liveblog) are for a final delegate margin in the 30-35 range. A very good night for Secretary Clinton.
You got that right, bro. I am heading for the Whatcom Co convention and I am bringing all my sharp elbows and attitude… I get the game NOW.. and I will make sure that things go in a fair direction (though the prospect of a day long CF of confusion and poor organization is not something that I look forward to). The arithmetic and interpretation of results at the caucuses left MUCH to be desired…
316.
patroclus
Very poignant to end with the Sandy Hook moment. She’s no Obama, but that was a pretty good speech. For the first time, the end is in sight!
A good night for Clinton, indeed. And, yeah, losing this badly in the second-biggest state more or less puts the nail in the mathematical coffin for Sanders.
318.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Mnemosyne: The only injuries I’ve sustained hiking with the kid is a skinned knee(still have the scar) and some scrapped knuckles on our last hike.
319.
Cacti
So what’s the hold up with Nassau County?
About 30% of the outstanding precincts are from there.
ETA: Guess that answers that. 624 of 1203 now reporting.
320.
Miss Bianca
@Elie: Grrrr! You go! : ) Feeling a little embarrassed now that I slipped and fell on the panic button after the CO state convention…but our *county* level meetings had been so civil, by comparison. Take No Shit! No Fucks Will Be Given!
321.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@BillinGlendaleCA: I stumbled and fell a lot as a young kid, but eventually “grew out of it” or something. That basement tumble was my first in a long time and quite a shock because it happened so quickly. Be careful! :-)
The NY Times is now estimating Clinton will get around 140 delegates and Sanders around 108 (which adds up to 248, but it’s a model and a little fuzzy).
LOL! Thanks for the encouragement! The history here is of supreme disorganization that drives everyone wild. I expressed my “grrrr” from remembering a Bernie-ite who backed me down at the caucus — who ended up interpreting the numbers differently than I did. She was a mountain and I just had to psychologically deal with her image when I thought of this next event… I am hoping that won’t be the case but the Bernie-ites at the caucus would not take reason beyond what they wanted — a complete Bernie victory. A lot of my friends are Bernie-ites and I have had to keep it mostly to myself… including my husband (who has now more or less thrown in the towel)!
324.
Miss Bianca
@Elie: Ooh, your husband? Awwkward… And here I was feeling martyred just dealing with my Sandernista friends on FB! (Resisting the temptation to do a victory lap on social media. *very* bad form, right? Victory with Dignity, shall be our motto).
325.
Ken
@randy khan: Yep, looks like it’s all over except for the diehards explaining that winning New York doesn’t mean anything, because the Democrats will win that in the general election anyway.
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Ivan X
A friend in NY voted for one of the D candidates, but none of the pledged delegates, because she didn’t know who they were and didn’t realize the delegates elect the candidate. So what happens to this vote? What does it count towards?
Mnemosyne
Mixing sports and elections — so it’s the fistfights thread?
JPL
Wow, the Celtics scored seven point in the first quarter against the Hawks. It’s an amazing feat.
LAO
Short handed goal. Go Rangers!
burnspbesq
@JPL:
Possibly even more amazing: they got to halftime down only 15.
Ivan X
@LAO:
Indeed. Watching at the Knickerbocker on 9th St, wouldn’t want to be anywhere else on earth right now.
Darkrose
Last night I watched the Warriors on my laptop, the Giants on my iPad, and the Sharks on my phone. We are living in the future.
Eric S.
Go Cardinals!
Go Blackhawks!
Yeah, I know. It’s complicated.
catclub
I was expecting at least three sweeps in NBA west after the weekend.
OKC promptly let me down in that expectation. Or Dallas exceeded expectations.
Could still happen if LA Clippers can sweep.
LAO
@Ivan X: Nice. I’m at my local.
burnspbesq
Nothing like back-to-back series against Philly and Atlanta to jump-start the Mets offense.
lamh36
I’m gonna focus on the open thread tag…I dont ‘do sports and I’m over the primary fight…so…
Awww shit, I’m not one for Westerns, but Denzel might just make me go to the theatre to see this!
First Look: ‘Magnificent Seven’ Starring Denzel Washington, Chris Pratt http://variety.com/2016/film/news/magnificent-seven-denzel-washington-chris-pratt-photos-1201756594/ via @variety
catclub
@Mnemosyne: Needs that key addition – alcohol.
burnspbesq
@lamh36:
That’s a film that does not need to be remade, Denzel or no Denzel.
LAO
@lamh36: eh. Nothing beats Seven Samurai.
LAO
@burnspbesq: I really really love Conforto. Moving him into the 3 slot was a smart move.
Schlemazel (parmesan rancor)
Too bad Cleveland lost its NHL team. The Barons vs the (commie) Stars could then cover both sports and the primary!!
And in the spirit engendered by the days threads please let me be the first to say, no matter which team/candidate you support you are an asshole, now fuck off!
hueyplong
@Darkrose:
“Last night I watched the Warriors on my laptop, the Giants on my iPad, and the Sharks on my phone. We are living in the future.”
I was doing likewise, on different devices. Had hoped for better than one out of three.
JPL
@burnspbesq: Amazing that they scored three times more, the second qtr. MA friends and I stayed in midtown ten days ago when the Celts were in town. Rode several times on the elevator with a few of them. My friend is 5’9″ and she was taller than Thomas. just sayin
amk
Go Hillary. Go Sportz.
Hal
@Ivan X: Same. I had no idea who these people were, but I thought it was interesting they were divided by male and female. I picked three women and then stopped realizing I didn’t know who they were. Bad me.
But this is a sports thread so how about a real sport? Figure skating! I watched the 30 for 30 ESPN documentary on the Tonya Harding/Nancy Harrigan affair on Netflix and it was really interesting. definitely worth the watch.
burnspbesq
Newcastle drew with Man City?
Felonius Monk
@efgoldman:
Careful. Cole might wake up and piss on your shoes. ‘Cause you know, sometimes the truth hurts. :-)
burnspbesq
@LAO:
Cabrera has been a very pleasant surprise. I didn’t like that move when it happened. I may have been wrong.
burnspbesq
@efgoldman:
47 ronin.
JCT
@LAO: Strongly agree. That middle of the order is now a minefield for opposing pitchers. So odd to see the Mets hit homers, been scarce the past few years.
Ken
@amk: Go Hillary, go Cavs.
burnspbesq
@efgoldman:
200 motels
Mike J
Elijah Cummings cut a new radio ad for Hillary.
LAO
@burnspbesq: So far so good.
@JCT: I think the kid is the real deal. But I’ve been wrong more times than I’ve been right.
@efgoldman: now that’s funny.
jl
@efgoldman:
30 years
‘World’s oldest dog’ Maggie the Kelpie dies aged 30
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/world-s-oldest-dog-maggie-the-kelpie-dies-a6989786.html
Ivan X
@burnspbesq:
2,000 Maniacs
Amir Khalid
@burnspbesq:
It’s Rafa Benitez. If anyone can keep them up in the EPL, he’s the man.
jl
Glad to see Cole acknowledge on this miserable lefty blog that NBA exists.
But, a mistake in the post title. Warriors played last night. Nothing of consequence going on in NBA playoffs today.
lamh36
@burnspbesq: Denzel has a way of doing what other cannot.
Hello…The Equalizer!
The Other Chuck
I just finished a reminder item I had dicated to my phone. The reminder was, I am not kidding:
“Take out the trash what the fuck siri you are so fucking useless oh there it is now”
Brachiator
@burnspbesq: Wasn’t Cabrera the name of the baddie in Magnificent Seven?
Ivan X
@Hal:
The crazy thing is that I only had a vague idea that I was supposed to vote for the delegates because I read this dumb blog and others. How’s the casual voter supposed to understand this shit?
dmsilev
@efgoldman: Movie samurai are like ninjas; their collective combat prowess is inversely proportional to their total number. One samurai: Untouchable badass. 1000 samurai: Cannon fodder.
burnspbesq
@lamh36:
Having seen “Safe House,” I will readily admit that Denzel can turn a bad idea into a watchable movie. I just don’t see how you beat the original.
dedc79
@efgoldman: Pierre is the absolute worst.
catclub
@dmsilev: Yojimbo!
JPK
@Ivan X: One Million Years B.C.
hueyplong
@catclub:
Sanjuro.
A Ghost To Most
@efgoldman:
Damn, I wish I could take offense at that, but I have suffered through everyone of them for the last three decades
Mnemosyne
@burnspbesq:
Depends on what you consider the original. There are plenty of folks who think “Seven Samurai” is better.
Plus I think the Western is about to go through another revival thanks to “Django Unchained.” It’s unfortunate that Tarantino screwed up his own Western, but I think other people are going to be able to pick it up and run with it where he failed.
WarMunchkin
Hi BJ, live from the HRC event in Times Square. Bill will be here.
burnspbesq
End of 5, still 5-0. Verett is doing it again.
redshirt
@dmsilev: Heh. There’s an “official” name for this”: Conservation of Ninjutsu.
Mike J
@WarMunchkin: I’m feverishly woodshedding a joke about Bill and the ball drop.
LAO
@Mnemosyne:
Loved both. But Seven Samurai was, IMO, better.
LAO
@burnspbesq: But tell me you aren’t happy to have deGrom back.
Ivan X
@WarMunchkin:
That sounds awesome. I’m gonna watch on NY1, or the channel 93 traffic cam.
Brachiator
@catclub: Yojimbo was remade as A Fistful of Dollars.
Mike J
@Brachiator: They remade The Hidden Fortress, too.
burnspbesq
@LAO:
I am, absolutely.
redshirt
@Mike J: A little indy film named “Star Wars”?
Mnemosyne
And to amplify a bit before I leave work:
I think “Django Unchained” revealed how much of the Western genre is devoted to romanticizing the Confederacy and the “Lost Cause.” That thread has never really gone away, and even got amplified a bit by the spaghetti westerns and similar (“The Outlaw Josey Wales,” I’m looking at you). I will be very interested to see who else can deconstruct the Western genre by bringing that valorizing of Confederates out into the light and examining it.
geg6
@WarMunchkin:
Wish I was there!
Ben Cisco (onboard the Defiant)
@burnspbesq: Agree that there are some things that one shouldn’t try to top. Ray Charles’ rendition of America the Beautiful and Brubeck’s Take Five spring readily to mind.
A Ghost To Most
@burnspbesq:
Did you see the futbol thread upstairs?
Elie
Just discovered the wonder of the song sparrow — which apparently sings in the evening too! Beautiful run of warbles with a little whistle at the end. Yes indeed — the best things in life are free or only cost the time to appreciate and wonder… Here is to outcomes and the future — but also to our continued solidarity to do what needs to be done — to literally save the republic this fall!!!! May we all be up the task and have the capacity for work that it might take. Let me put out my fist to you for your hand on top of mine — YAY Democrats!!!!!!
dmsilev
@Brachiator: Wasn’t that the “remake” that was so close to the original that it sparked a lawsuit from Kurosawa against Leone?
Elie
@Ben Cisco (onboard the Defiant):
Hey! Hope you are doing well and have some time to smell and appreciate some damned roses after some really tough times…
Schlemazel (parmesan rancor)
@efgoldman:
2001 A Space Oddity
lamh36
@burnspbesq: In the hands of great filmmaker like Fuqua and Denzel, I would expect a pretty good film. Where you keep same premise, and reshape it with a different sensibility and take my a great actor….if any director and actor an do so, I’d def put my money on these two.
Fuqua and Denzel is always a good bet
ETA: Trailer hits tomorrow…I’ll try to post it when it does
gex
@Hal: At least here in MN, the D delegates were supposed to be balanced by gender. Maybe that’s the case there too?
Mike J
What could go wrong?
dedc79
@burnspbesq: The 2016 Mets are starting to look more like the 2015 Mets (in a good way)
Betty Cracker
Well, shit. I’d hoped Clinton had crushed Sanders so thoroughly that they’d announce HRC as the projected winner at 9:00 when the polls closed. No such luck.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
The NY Times says the AP says Donnie won with 0% in.
Cheers,
Scott.
dmsilev
NY called for Trump.
Nothing yet on the (D) side.
WarMunchkin
@Betty Cracker: Probably an 8 point win.
patroclus
@WarMunchkin: CNN is saying the exit polls show a 4 point Clinton W.
Ben Cisco (onboard the Defiant)
@Elie: I have. Spoke with my dad at length last week, and I think I may have turned a corner of sorts. Last weekend was the first one I’ve spent alone without feeling depressed. Work in progress…
Frankensteinbeck
@WarMunchkin:
I just checked 538. They said the early exit polls had Clinton leading only by 4%, both a better performance than expected for Sanders, and a loss he can’t afford. We’ll see.
burnspbesq
1% in, 62-38 for Clinton.
raven
Tweety is raging about trains and skyscrapers.
BillinGlendaleCA
@WarMunchkin:
I will? Nobody told me, shit!
dmsilev
@raven: Tweety is always raging about something, and usually isn’t making any sense. Why should tonight be any different?
Tissue Thin Pseudonym
Wings come back to tie it at two.
Technocrat
@Frankensteinbeck:
4% would mean we can pretty much give up on polling this cycle. Maybe toss Runes, or try the I Ching?
lamh36
@Betty Cracker:
LAO
Damn it!
burnspbesq
Six scoreless innings for Verett. He did his job and then some.
Davis X. Machina
@Mike J: I’m worrying about the inmates getting ahold of the guards’ weapons.
patroclus
@Technocrat: The last polls showed a range between 6 and 17 points.
Elie
@Betty Cracker:
They can only do that for Trump given his opponent sucked so much worse, according to New Yorker Republicans anyway…
dmsilev
@BillinGlendaleCA: Get yourself on an airplane _now_.
jl
Some good news from NY exit polls. I hope true for the rest of the coutry.
Exit Poll Shows NY Dems Energized By Nomination Contest, GOP Divided
TPM blog
Two-thirds of Democratic voters say the contest between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has energized the party. But GOP voters hold the opposite view, saying their party has been divided…
…
Nearly 6 in 10 New York Republican voters say their party has been divided by the nomination process, while only 3 in 10 Democratic voters say the same about their party’s primaries. Only 4 in 10 GOP voters say they’ve been energized, exit polls show.
In the Democratic primary, about 7 in 10 supporters of each candidate said that they would definitely or probably vote for the other candidate if he or she became the party’s nominee. Voters are about evenly split on whether Clinton or Sanders is more inspiring.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/ny-primary-exit-polling-2016
BillinGlendaleCA
@dmsilev: But I have to walk the dogs, they’re giving me a ‘funny look’.
The Thin Black Duke
@Mnemosyne: How about “Posse”, which was directed by and starred Mario Van Peebles?
patroclus
Actual results so far: Clinton 62 Sanders 38; 2% in. Probably from NYC.
Technocrat
@patroclus:
Yeah. If 6 was the low end, 4 should be pretty unlikely assuming errors cancel out. There seems to be a consistent Clinton bias in the responses.
If 4% holds up, that is.
LAO
@burnspbesq: monstrous homerun by Duda.
lamh36
@Betty Cracker: E
Without seeing projections, and just based on my own gut…I’m going with HRC by 6, and the call to come at…930pm CST
burnspbesq
Two-run bomb for Duda. Now 8-0.
LAO
@burnspbesq: walker wanted in on the fun too.
dmsilev
@patroclus: According to the NY Times live map, we’ve got some results from NYC and now some from outside the city. 6% in.
burnspbesq
Oregon Live is reporting irregularities in the lists of eligible voters in parts of Brooklyn. Do. Not. Need. This.
Frankensteinbeck
@Technocrat:
538 thinks it’ll actually turn out to be 6%, but they said to put no money on anything.
PurpleGirl
@Hal: You mean Nancy Kerrigan.
different-church-lady
@Hal: Anything that requires judging to score is not a real sport.
[ducks]
Frankensteinbeck
@PurpleGirl:
You mean Sarah Kerrigan? The Queen of Blades?
Amir Khalid
It looks like Bernie’s in for a thumping in New York. And so is Ted Cruz, who’s fallen well behind Kasich.
SiubhanDuinne
@efgoldman:
Sorry to tell you, and any other Boston-area Juicers who were hoping for a get-together this weekend — well, obviously, the meetup can still happen, but without me. Long story short, I lost my footing/balance while going downstairs yesterday, did most of the flight bounce-bounce-bounce, landing on my tailbone, and am quite sore in the bum and lower back. Sore enough that I couldn’t face the 15-16 hours behind the wheel. I’m sure nothing is broken, but I’m pretty bruised and tender and have trouble sitting or staying in any one position for five minutes at a time. Yes, Advil; yes, Epsom salts bath; and yes, if there’s no improvement soon I’ll go to a doctor.
Disappointed about the cancelled (or at least postponed) trip, but there will surely be other opportunities. Wanted to make sure you knew in case you were holding the weekend.
PsiFighter37
No idea what the exit poll numbers come out to, but Tad Devine is cheering on his bank account.
Schlemazel (parmesan rancor)
@efgoldman:
I saw that & know I feel a lot safer now . . . they are 800 miles away.
amk
with 10% in, hillz 62-38.
Anya
@patroclus: Usually, the City reports last.
jl
I say Trump SMASH!
Mike J
@PsiFighter37: Sanders outspent Hillary on the air, and campaign consultants don’t get paid for opening field offices, or even winning. Just spending money on ads.
lamh36
Poor Teddy
Poopyman
@Mike J: I’m picturing Groundskeeper Willie with an AR-15.
Technocrat
@Amir Khalid:
What would qualify as a thumping? 10% certainly, but 4-6% is just a loss, I think. Assuming she can hold those margins. Brooklyn is surprisingly close.
jl
@Anya:
“Usually, t[sic]he City reports last”
San Francisco votes in the California primary.
Schlemazel (parmesan rancor)
@jl:
We are Democrats, we are not happy unless we are kicking the shit out of each other.
Dr. McCoy
@amk: It can’t be that big a spread, CNN has it at 4 right now.
dmsilev
@amk: Big dosh of votes just came in; NYT has it at 15% reporting, still 62-38. As a side note, that 38% represents roughly 4x as many votes as Trump has right now.
patroclus
Clinton 61 Sanders 39 15%.
Now 62-38 again 21%. A lead of about 90,000, and growing.
Poopyman
@Ben Cisco (onboard the Defiant): It will always be a work in progress. Glad you recognize it for what it is.
Peace to ya.
Frankensteinbeck
@Dr. McCoy:
538 just noted that the numbers coming out of NYC so far are way out of line with the exit polls. We’ll just have to see. Maybe the Clinton areas came in first. It happens.
eemom
The bernouts are gonna be screaming “disenfranchisement.” Mark ye well my words.
amk
@Dr. McCoy:
well, reality bites. did it occur to you that teann breathless reporting wants the horse race shite to go on so that they can ring in the $’s?
here is the actual count… unless of course, you believe in the “exit poll” fairy.
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/new-york?lo=ut_d1
raven
Details on what Georgia paid Ludacris to perform at G-Day
Besides the $65,000 Georgia paid, the school also picked up the tab for local ground transportation. The payment was due the day of the event. Ebonyson Management represented Ludacris.
There were other items listed including four greek strained yogurts (mixed flavors), 1 box of Trojan Magnum Condoms (excstasty), two bottles of Belvedere Vodka and a case of Nico Coconut Water.
different-church-lady
@Frankensteinbeck: Well, either that or the exit polls are way out of line with the numbers coming out of NYC.
Cacti
@patroclus:
Now 21%, still holding at 61-39.
WarMunchkin
They’re playing eye of the tiger. Lots of energy and people doing the wave. Also, I didnt get in the drink line so I’m sober. No Hills Bill or Cheslea yet
Technocrat
From 538:
The idea of Trump’s 168 Bronx supporters cracks me up.
Ben Cisco (onboard the Defiant)
@amk:
I thought I was the only one who called them that. Great minds!
different-church-lady
@WarMunchkin: ENTHUSIASM GAP!
WarMunchkin
And now they’ve put the CNN feed on screen, huge cheers.
patroclus
Clinton now more than 100,000 up. Still 61-39. 28%. But the proto-fascist is about to speak, so I’m gonna switch the TV to sports.
BillinGlendaleCA
@jl: “The City”, damn Bay Area assholes!
amk
fucking tool anderson cooper – if you look at ‘mr’ trump’s victory in ny, it’s extraordinary.
for fucks sake, with all your a$$ ki$$ing, donald dreck got just 50 k votes so far. Even bs got 175 k for fucks sake.
eta: lady godiva got 330k for fucks sake.
lollipopguild
@burnspbesq: 99 luftballoons.
Technocrat
Interesting comment from 538:
geg6
@amk:
Exactly. Don’t know why anyone pays attention to CNN. They’ve more than shown their
assescards this election season.BillinGlendaleCA
@patroclus:
Is that Hillary or ‘The Donald’?
dmsilev
@WarMunchkin:
Probably the most applause CNN is going to get all year.
Cacti
Bern losing all 5 boroughs. Staten Island is the only one within single digits.
magurakurin
@Brachiator: You know, I always thought that Sergio Leone had credited Kurosawa in that film, but he never did. He insisted to the end that it was an original movie based on an old Italian story. Clearly, Fist Full of Dollars is Yojimbo. So, since he never gave credit, it should be called a rip off…as much as I love both movies. Now, The Last Man Standing…that is a remake that credits Kurosawa. But, The Magnificent Seven is my favorite movie all time…on most days.
patroclus
@amk: Even Sanders is blowing Trump away. I hope we hear the same media blather about turnout that we’ve heard all Spring. The Dems came out!
lamh36
Just happened to flip past MSNBC…
Is that Marla Maples daughter standing behind Trump? She looks like her mother
Thanks goodness for her…
https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/722599558744813569
Amir Khalid
@Technocrat:
Well, her current lead of 61%-39% certainly looks like a thumping to me.
SiubhanDuinne
@efgoldman:
Yes, I honestly think I’d know if I were dealing with a cracked coccyx or splintered sacroiliac. But I’m not stupid, and I promise I’ll see one of those, how you call them? doctors, if I’m not feeling much better in a day or two. Promise.
Anya
I hope the exist polls are wrong. I want a Southern States’ type of thumping for Bernie and his obnoxious campaign. I want them destroyed.
I went from being a Berniac to leaning Hillary because of electibility but still liking Bernie into loathing him when he started with his “if only the black vote in the south was last” crap and then moved to wanting to destroy the democratic party. How can he do this crap when the neo-Confederate party wants to turn America into a dystopian theocracy? I guess he doesn’t care and that’s why I started loathing Bernie and his revolution.
dmsilev
@Technocrat: Is that saying that the NY Asshole vote is disproportionately going to Clinton? She’s got it made then.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Technocrat:
All of them, Katie.
patroclus
@BillinGlendaleCA: lol
jl
@Amir Khalid: From NYT live results maps, NYC has reported and less of upstate. I think will end up about same as polls predicted.
But, Trump SMASH!
guachi
Bet Bernie says Clinton’s win in NY doesn’t count because the votes came from *southern* New York.
Cacti
@patroclus:
Sanders is down by 142k votes, but still has more votes than all 3 GOPers combined.
different-church-lady
Yeah, this is just great: now if Sanders loses by anything more than 4% we get another couple of interminable weeks of the Black Night screaming about disenfranchisement.
Technocrat
@Amir Khalid:
Yes, yes it does. My bad. Pearls needed to be clutched, and I was the man for the job.
Anya
@patroclus: GOP is nothing in New York. Working Families Party has more members.
Ivan X
@jl:
The fact that San Franciscans refer to it as such is just one of many manfestations of its residents’ inflated sense of its actual significance.
cbear
OT in the OT– Dunno how many of you have seen the trailer(s) for the upcoming Key & Peele movie “Keanu”, but they are hilarious–and Keanu the cat is beyond cute.
Here’s the trailer…
Trigger warning: Features black people saying ni-Clang.
patroclus
Hey Cruz! I got your “New York values” right here! He’s at 14%.
Technocrat
NBC Called it.
Gin & Tonic
@Technocrat: According to an article I read last week, the 15th CD is both the poorest and the most Democratic in the country.
Chyron HR
@Cacti:
Well, that’s it, folks. The Democratic party had a good run, but Hillary’s destroyed it with her ambitions to be president. #BernBabyBern
raven
AMF Bernie.
LAO
@Cacti: We are a blue state.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Ivan X: Too wordy, I liked my approach better.
PurpleGirl
@Frankensteinbeck: No, I checked through Google. Nancy Kerrigan.
jl
@Cacti: New York is a den of commies. I graciously and mercifully allow NYC to be referred to as ‘the City’.
However, The City, will still vote in the California primary. But, didn’t mean to be an SF Bay Area asshole. Sorry.
patroclus
Clinton! 8:41 p.m. CDT.
Tinare
Final score: “whiny, underperforming” Penguins 3 – Rangers 1
Go Pens!
satby
@SiubhanDuinne: Sorry to hear that, but glad it wasn’t worse. Do take care of yourself and get better soon!
magurakurin
@dmsilev: you know, in my experience, New Yorkers are A LOT nicer than the folks in say…San Francisco.
Cacti
Congrats to New York on its new designation as northernmost deep south state.
dmsilev
@Technocrat: Via someone on dKos:
(David Wasserman on Twitter)
Percysowner
They’ve called it for Hillary. 60% to 40% and she has over 1800 pledged delegates.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Technocrat: OK, who had the money of 40 minutes?
dmsilev
@magurakurin: Hush, you. Why destroy a perfectly good stereotype with “facts”?
Dr. McCoy
@Anya: You might need a doctor for that.
lollipopguild
@Anya: Ditto.
Anya
@jl: What do you have against Manhattan exceptionalism?
BillinGlendaleCA
@jl:
You Bay Area folk just can’t help yourselves.
Elie
@SiubhanDuinne:
Sorry about your accident…. both the physical pain and the surprise of it. Get well quickly!
different-church-lady
@Percysowner: This is nonsense! Sanders is POISED!!!!!
Baud
@SiubhanDuinne:
Ugh. Take care of yourself.
Ivan X
@BillinGlendaleCA: Yeah, me too, now that you mention it
PurpleGirl
@SiubhanDuinne: I hope nothing is broken, make sure you take the Advil on schedule, every six hours. This way you won’t start feeling some pain.
Hope you feel better tomorrow.
raven
@Elie: If it wasn’t a surprise it wouldn’t be an accident.
amk
hiilz by twenty points. go hillz.
Baud
Congrats to Team Hillary.
patroclus
Clinton up 160,000 41% in 60-39. Sheraton crowd going wild!
Frankensteinbeck
A) 538 says that if the exit polls turn out to be wildly wrong, that’s not weird, but actually common.
B) I cannot believe Kasich is going to take a single borough in New York after the ‘The Passover’ fiasco.
Davis X. Machina
George Dangerfield, The Strange Death of Liberal England
BillinGlendaleCA
@Cacti: I thought that was Massachusetts.
Technocrat
@BillinGlendaleCA:
We’ve already had 2 TBoggs today. An Over/Under thread might have broken the site.
magurakurin
@dmsilev: Both are great cities. Tops in the world, and I’ve seen a few.
raven
@Chyron HR: Jesus how stupid can you get? You know someone who became president that didn’t have ambition?
CaseyL
@jl: 30 years old! What were they feeding him??
Elie
@raven:
True. But I tell you, I have had some surprises (accidents) that seemed more surprising than others.
patroclus
@Baud: Grace in defeat is a hallmark of a respectful, decent Presidential candidate. My sympathies to your campaign and all your supporters.
Davis X. Machina
@Chyron HR: And via a theft no less notorious than Ohio in 2004, too.
Surely the Republic is dead.
BillinGlendaleCA
@raven: Jerry Ford, he just wanted to be Speaker.
Cacti
@BillinGlendaleCA:
MA was a close win for Clinton.
Bernie told me she only wins big in the deep south. Ergo, New York is now in the deep south.
WarMunchkin
They announced and the crowd exploded like cray. Deafening.
Chyron HR
@raven:
Pat Paulsen?
patroclus
@Frankensteinbeck: How bout that Joseph! I love him!
Cacti
NYT has also called it for Clinton.
raven
@Elie: Well ok then.
amk
go closed primaries. no more ratfucking from rethug lites aka indies.
dmsilev
Right now, Ted Cruz is, per the Time’s live map, ahead in Ulster county. 7 votes for Ted, 4 for Trump, and 3 for Kasich.
SiubhanDuinne
@satby:
@Elie:
@Baud:
@PurpleGirl:
Thank you, all, for good wishes and advice. Elie, yes, the surprise and instant loss of dignity — even though no one else was around to witness my humiliation — were the worst of it. I hate feeling so stupid. And clumsy. And old.
jl
@BillinGlendaleCA: I like Eagle Rock.
different-church-lady
Those organic farmers are really letting Bernie down tonight.
redshirt
@Davis X. Machina:
Rodney Dangerfield, Caddyshack
Elie
@PurpleGirl:
Good advice. And ice…. (though I don’t like ice for me but many do)
I tend to like an Epsom salts bath best — it relaxes and helps with the pain of any bruises..
dmsilev
@Cacti: Well, NYC is in the deep south of NYS. Does that help any?
Baud
@WarMunchkin: I’m staying up for the speech. Hope it’s soon.
TheBuhJaysus
I’m looking for the trifecta of HRC, Blackhawks and Cubs wins.
Amaranthine RBG
@Mnemosyne: Yes, it is a shame that Tarantino screwed up his western Django Unchained.
I really liked his musical, The Hateful Eight, though.
jl
@Baud:
” Congrats to Team Hillary. ”
With Bernie out of the way, you are in position to steal a march on her.
patroclus
@dmsilev: As Lord Randolph once said: “Ulster will fight and Ulster will be right!”
Ken
@Mnemosyne:
There was some of that in the Wild Wild West movie, but that’s probably not what you’re looking for. I can’t think of anything in that movie that anyone would be looking for, except perhaps the niche “Kenneth Branagh chews scenery” fans.
raven
@SiubhanDuinne: It’s been a year since I almost cut my finger off carrying a plate of chicken to the grill. Shit happens.
Renie
can you believe this b.s. empire state bldg lit up red for trump victory
BillinGlendaleCA
@jl: The rock or the community of Eagle Rock, Hey, what to you have against it’s neighbor to the west, a real city, Glendale.
raven
@efgoldman: Well there ya go then.
hedgehog mobile
Congrats Hillz!
satby
@Renie: UGH!!
hedgehog mobile
@SiubhanDuinne: Oof! Take care of you.
geg6
@Tinare:
Heh!
patroclus
Clinton up by 180,000 60-40 47% in. This seems to qualify for a “thumping.”
Ken
@amk:
Ah, but if you look at percentages, Trump is running at 63% and Hillary only has 60%, so by pundit math the Democrats lost and this will be the year New York goes Republican.
CaseyL
@SiubhanDuinne: Oh, ouch! It’s good that you’re pretty sure no bones are broken. But: Soft tissue injuries usually don’t make themselves known for a day or two after the incident, so stay careful and keep an eye on yourself.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@SiubhanDuinne: Glad you’re Ok, but get checked out when you can.
Don’t be hard on yourself. Falling on stairs isn’t limited to the old. I missed the bottom basement step a few weeks ago and instantly was on my knees and forearms (and was lucky I didn’t crack my head). My step-mom’s 50-ish physician fell on her basement stairs a few months ago and died (nobody found her for a few days)…
Stairs can get anyone. Be careful everyone!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Frankensteinbeck
NYTimes thinks things will improve for Sanders as the night goes on, but only to about an 11% difference. Worth keeping an eye on. But the ‘Sanders needed a big win, and instead got a big loss’ dynamic remains unchanged.
@efgoldman: and @raven:
I also took it for snark.
@patroclus:
I watched that on Samantha Bee. I think descriptions left out the worst part. He asked a bunch of ultra-orthodox rabbis if they knew who Joseph was, and then proceeded to explain to them who Joseph was as if they didn’t know.
jl
@BillinGlendaleCA: Simi Valley is nice. Azusa and San Dimas are suburban jewels.
Edit: the community. I don’t think the rock looks much like an eagle anymore, IMHO.
? Martin
I think it’s a perfect litmus test for the state of US politics that Republicans keep talking about eliminating Common Core in order to bring education locally, when Common Core, as its name suggests, was a plan by the states to get out from under the horror of NCLB. Common Core is the local solution (and not even adopted by every state) and half the country doesn’t even realize that.
Baud
I’ve come to detest MSNBC.
Elie
@SiubhanDuinne:
I HEAR you girlfriend. I am right with you…
The Epsom salts work real dandy on both 1) getting you to sleep cozy and 2) getting that bad sore thing better for a little while overnight. If you don’t have any in house, a warm bath with a little baking soda will also help (I keep a large container of Epsom salts in my bathroom cabinet. It works miracles for sore anything and I’ve even used it when I was in a stressful situation… its very relaxing (magnesium sulfate) Use at least a couple of cups in warm bath and soak till it starts to cool (15 – 20 min)…
raven
@efgoldman: I spent that entire day taking down a deck with a sawzall, sledge, and a breaker bar. I tripped on the front steps going to the grill.
BillinGlendaleCA
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet: I don’t even require stairs, but everytime I’ve gone hiking with the kid; I end up taking a spill.
? Martin
Hmm. That’s a bigger gap in Clinton’s favor that I had expected. I wonder if the closed primary hurt Sanders more than we realized.
raven
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet: That’s what got me.
patroclus
@Baud: Try C-SPAN – they’re covering the Clinton event in full and live.
dmsilev
So I guess the next question will be how the delegate allocation shakes out. Since NY does one of these things where each Congressional district gets some delegates (allocated proportionally from the votes within the district) plus a bunch of statewides, I guess it’ll be late tonight or early tomorrow before that clarifies.
geg6
Well, now I need a cigarette. Hilz and Pens take New York with no mercy!
Mary G
@SiubhanDuinne: I hate when that happens! I’m glad it seems to be nothing serious, but sorry you’ve had to cancel your trip. Sending healing energy your way.
WarMunchkin
@Baud: They announced “the former Mayor of New York” and everyone looked around panicked thinking it would be Bloomberg
BillinGlendaleCA
@jl: Slimy Valley, really(I grew up in Thousand Oaks)? You can see the eagle really well when the sun is just at the right angle.
Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class
Wondering if Bernie is contemplating his lonely future existence in exile on the Committee for Naming Dams and Berms…
jl
@? Martin: No matter. Common Core was implemented during the Obama administration, and therefore is of the devil, and represents the sum of all evils.
There were a few other issues and projects with a similar fate, some of them initiated by the W admin. But, that doesn’t matter now.
satby
@SiubhanDuinne: Well, if it’s any comfort, lovely and lithe 16 yo Qunoot did the same thing coming down the stairs last week. So it’s not an old thing, as Scott said. It’s a too preoccupied thing.
dmsilev
@? Martin: Expect the gap to narrow. Most of NYC, where Clinton crushed Sanders, has already reported, but upstate is apparently friendlier territory for him and has a bigger fraction of the outstanding vote.
patroclus
@dmsilev: Something like Clinton 151 Sanders 140.
Baud
@patroclus: Thanks. Will try that.
Mnemosyne
@Amaranthine RBG:
Protip: if you don’t understand something, you can refrain from commenting rather than making yourself look like an idiot.
Miss Bianca
@lamh36: OMG, *seriously*? Re-make of “Magnificent Seven” with Denzel Washington? I think I just drooled in my mouth a little…
Baud
@patroclus: Damn. All this over 10 delegates.
geg6
@SiubhanDuinne:
Damn, girl! Take it easy and get well!
PurpleGirl
@cbear: Saw an ad for it this evening. Wanna see the cats.
BillinGlendaleCA
@? Martin: I really think Bernie does much better in open primaries. I’m pretty sure there’s some rodent fornication going on.
magurakurin
@? Martin: or maybe his supporters calling her a whore and throwing money at her hurt him more than “we” realized.
patroclus
@Baud: It might be 12 or 13.
Technocrat
@patroclus:
Doesn’t NY have 295? It would be something like 151-84, I think.
jl
@BillinGlendaleCA:
” You can see the eagle really well when the sun is just at the right angle. ”
Sure. When the sun is just at the right angle, the smog is just the right thickness, the harley’s have just the right roar, and adobo is wafting in the air.
magurakurin
@Miss Bianca: seriously, that’s going to happen? Count me in.
? Martin
@dmsilev: Won’t narrow enough. From the perspective of Democrats, NYC is effectively the entire state. Its why the NY GOP is so fucking weird. They’re even more screwed up than the CA GOP, and that’s saying something.
SiubhanDuinne
@raven:
I remember that, but can hardly believe it’s been that long!
Yeah, shit does indeed happen. My usual mantra is along the lines of “If this is the worst thing that ever happens to me, I’m a pretty lucky person.” It’s worked pretty well for me so far.
Mnemosyne
@Ken:
Wild Wild West is pretty much the poster child movie for producer interference. One of these days, I should see if I can track down a draft of the script that was written prior to Jon Peters deciding it needed to have a giant mechanical spider added to it.
satby
@BillinGlendaleCA: @magurakurin: pretty sure it’s both.
How come all my comments have weird margins??!
different-church-lady
@Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class: FEEL THE BERM.
chopper
dang, over 50% is in and clinton’s up by 20. this is looking like a blowout.
dmsilev
@patroclus: Found at least one delegate estimator here; their model currently is bouncing around a bit but is roughly showing Clinton +30.
BillinGlendaleCA
@jl:
That’s the default in Eagle Rock.
Miss Bianca
@WarMunchkin: How’s it going out there?
patroclus
@Technocrat: Not sure – I thought it was 291. The margin won’t be that large – maybe upwards of 17 or so but my guess is 11. The Dems’ rules just don’t allow for delegate sweeps. But I’ll freely admit it if I’m wrong. Hey – you’re the technocrat!
? Martin
@lamh36: Looks really good. But holy crap, they’re going to start tossing Santa Claus roles to Vincent D’Onofrio.
Renie
Now Empire State is blue for Hillary so makes it fair since they did it for tRump
Elie
@? Martin:
Well — He’s been in a false situation in many states with open primaries (MI, WI) or with Caucuses favoring small groups. Over 30% of those voting in the Democratic primary in MI were Republicans or independents. In the WA state caucus, no requirement for being a democrat is necessary to participate — you just have to declare yourself as a Dem that day! Bernie has gotten an easy ride through territory he appropriated as a DINO “Democrat in name only”. I am truly glad it caught up with him. He got trounced in Florida also a Dems only primary.
Miss Bianca
@lamh36: yay! Trailer! Love your movie updates!
@SiubhanDuinne: Ouch! Be well!
magurakurin
@satby: good point. Can we stop talking about Bernie now? He’s a dead man walking. Unless he decided to run third party, he won’t be on the ballot in November. But it is looking more and more like Trump will. I’m gonna use my hateful powers against Trump from now on. Mistah Sanders — he dead.
Mike J
@chopper: Right now that 20% is 200,0000 votes. Prepare to change from “2.4 million more people have voted for her” to “2.6 million more people have voted for her.” With the caveat that it’s still only 55% in. It could, in theory tighten up a bit. But Lord I hope not.
SiubhanDuinne
@hedgehog mobile:
@CaseyL:
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet: Yikes, Scott!!
@Mary G:
@satby: That’s it, just not paying attention. I hope Qunoot suffered limited damage.
@geg6: I will indeed, thanks!
Everyone’s good wishes are much appreciated!
Cacti
Am I the only one who finds it funny that the only place Kasich is winning is Manhattan?
geg6
@? Martin:
More than who realized? Speak for yourself. I never doubted she’d hit a double digit win in NY.
jl
@magurakurin:
” Mistah Sanders – he dead. ”
Mr. Bernie promises to stay in the race and he will take his delegates to the convention to shape the Dem platform and HRC candidacy as much as he can. So there will be plenty for intra-party partisans to howl about over the next three months.
Ken
@Frankensteinbeck:
That was good, but I think he topped it with his remarks – outside a Jewish bakery, after having bought matzah – about how the blood of the Passover lamb is like the blood of Jesus, the Lamb of God.
Gin & Tonic
@dmsilev:
Yeah, with 58% in, HRC is all the way down to 59.2.
SiubhanDuinne
@Miss Bianca:
Thanks, Miss B! (My late aunt had a cat named Miss Bianca, so I always picture you as languidly feline.)
jl
@SiubhanDuinne: Is it good form to wish you well if I don’t know what it’s about? A health scare of some kind, right? In any case, glad you are OK.
Elie
@BillinGlendaleCA:
You absolutely have that right and unless you factor in those little technical realities, you do not interpret results correctly. He has been living on borrowed time for a while. My guess is his funding, “laundered” from “foreign” contributors — reflect Koch/ratfck sources . also. That’s why Bernie can take fam on junket to the Vatican this week.
Cacti
Clinton now up over 200,000 votes.
About 230,000 total voted in the Washington State caucuses.
Mnemosyne
@jl:
She fell on her tuchus, but should probably see a doctor anyway just to make sure she didn’t do any major damage to anything else.
patroclus
The percentage is narrowing – now 59-41, but the vote differential continues to grow (now 208,000). I’m expecting a barnburner from Hillz tonight (but I do miss Obama – “you know, they said this day would never come.”) This is the first night of this entire primary season that I’ve truly been excited and felt inspired!
SiubhanDuinne
@jl:
Perfectly good form, I think, very much appreciated, and no mystery. I stepped wrong going downstairs in my apartment/townhouse yesterday and went sliding down a flight of stairs on my tail. That’s all. More ouchy than anything else. Thanks for your good wishes.
magurakurin
@jl: fuck him. Ignore his ass. Trump is the enemy. Pretty sure Clinton’s response to any questions about Bernie are going to be variations on “Bernie who?”
SiubhanDuinne
@Mnemosyne:
By “anything else,” I assume you mean “my pride.” Because it was badly damaged.
Gin & Tonic
@Cacti: Yeah, but those are black votes, you know?
Anyway, the NY Times has a very useful infographic about the NYC vote by neighborhood. All of Bernie’s top-scoring neighborhoods are white.
Frankensteinbeck
@Ken:
I think assuming they don’t know about Joseph is worse, but the orthodox and ultra-orthodox are much more sensitive to classic smears like the blood libel than I. Goysplainin’ how they’re like Christianity is bad. Saying stuff that sounds kinda like the blood libel but isn’t is bad. Assuming they don’t know the basics of their own religion is beyond any attempt to claim honest mistake.
? Martin
@patroclus:
And that’s what makes Sander’s challenge so large. In a race to the finish scenario, the percentages in matter less than the percentages left. With ⅔ of the delegates already counted, that means Sanders needs to beat Clinton by roughly double the percentages she’s beaten him so far. He’s just running out of runway.
There’s a standard SAT problem that illustrates it well. Two cars are in a two lap race. Car 1 averages 60MPH for the two laps. Car 2 averages 30 MPH for the first lap, what does it need to average for the 2nd lap to win? The answer is that it can’t. If the lap is a mile, the first car finished the race in 2 minutes, the 2nd car took 2 minutes to do the first lap – it can’t possibly catch the first car.
When you look at it from the vantage point of averages of what’s already done, the math looks reasonable, but when you look at what’s left to complete, you realize that its much, much harder.
SiubhanDuinne
Will not trace the train of thought that led me to this query, but have we ever had a Rude Limerick thread here at Balloon Juice Mansions?
Cacti
@Gin & Tonic:
No love for Bernie from the old neighborhood.
Losing Brooklyn by 19 points.
Mnemosyne
@SiubhanDuinne:
Always best to be sure. My doctor was mad at me because I didn’t go see her after a minor bicycle accident left a major bruise where the handlebar hit my abdomen. Apparently I could have damaged my spleen without knowing it, though it still seems to be spleening along just fine.
ETA: I also wanted to demonstrate that I could use tuchus in a sentence despite being a goy.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@Elie: ABC News:
If he didn’t give a political speech, why did his political campaign pay for it? How is talking about issues and the economy not political? Is Devine unable to see the contradictions in what he and the campaign are saying?
Bernie’s campaign people seemingly can’t tell a consistent story even when they’re not attacking Hillary as being Corrupt™ (without explicitly saying so, but too many of his supporters clearly see the intended message). They’re not doing Bernie any favors.
Cheers,
Scott.
(Who would be very nervous about trying to justify the Vatican trip under campaign finance rules if that were his job…)
Mike J
@Cacti:
We ain’t done yet. Every time we pick delegates, we on the Hillary side gain a little bit more. County Convention May 1st, and maybe we can eek a couple more delegates out.
Major Major Major Major
@SiubhanDuinne: There once was a girl from Anheuser
Who said that no man could surprise her
But Pabst took a chance
Found Schlitz in her pants
And now she is sadder, Busweiser
NYCMT
In New York electoral micro-geography, my birth county (Sullivan) was screwed out of casino gambling by Donald Trump and Steve Wynn for thirty five years, until all of the Borscht Belt resorts died and left a residue of 20% unemployment and towns in a state of collapse. Tonight, seventy percent of the Republican electorate voted for Trump.
On the Dem side, Bernie took Mark Ruffalo country (aka the towns with no black people) by twenty point margins, and lost the town (Thompson) with substantial numbers of minority residents by the same amount.
Go Catskills!
amk
bang for bucks, it ain’t, for bs.
randy khan
@patroclus:
The current NY Times estimate is 104-85, so a 19 delegate margin right now, but there are still a bunch of delegates that have not been allocated (58, if I count right). If this relative margin persists, Clinton will end up with 135 delegates and Sanders will have 112. If the absolute margin persists, Clinton will end up with 133 delegates and Sanders will end up with 114. The 538 delegate targets for tonight were 122 for Clinton and 125 for Sanders.
magurakurin
@amk: for Bernie it ain’t…but probably pretty good value for Tad.
patroclus
@randy khan: Cool – so I was wrong. It’ll be 19-23, not the 11 I guessed. That’s fine. The more the better. Now 214,000 margin 58-42. 74%. Hillary on track for one MILLLLION votes.
magurakurin
@randy khan: and the killer is that 247 delegates are off the board. Sanders is done. He now can decide how he wants to lose, gracefully or ugly. It’s up to him.
? Martin
@geg6:
I wasn’t sure about the size of the margin. We weren’t sure how big the open/closed effect would be.
Miss Bianca
@SiubhanDuinne: Ha ha, because of course, she was a mouse! Who loved cats, in the original book. That’s hilarious! Take care of yourself – we can’t spare you!
dmsilev
@patroclus: Current estimates I’m seeing (e.g. on 538’s liveblog) are for a final delegate margin in the 30-35 range. A very good night for Secretary Clinton.
Miss Bianca
@patroclus: @magurakurin: I am smiling.
Elie
@Mike J:
You got that right, bro. I am heading for the Whatcom Co convention and I am bringing all my sharp elbows and attitude… I get the game NOW.. and I will make sure that things go in a fair direction (though the prospect of a day long CF of confusion and poor organization is not something that I look forward to). The arithmetic and interpretation of results at the caucuses left MUCH to be desired…
patroclus
Very poignant to end with the Sandy Hook moment. She’s no Obama, but that was a pretty good speech. For the first time, the end is in sight!
randy khan
@patroclus: @dmsilev: @magurakurin:
A good night for Clinton, indeed. And, yeah, losing this badly in the second-biggest state more or less puts the nail in the mathematical coffin for Sanders.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Mnemosyne: The only injuries I’ve sustained hiking with the kid is a skinned knee(still have the scar) and some scrapped knuckles on our last hike.
Cacti
So what’s the hold up with Nassau County?
About 30% of the outstanding precincts are from there.
ETA: Guess that answers that. 624 of 1203 now reporting.
Miss Bianca
@Elie: Grrrr! You go! : ) Feeling a little embarrassed now that I slipped and fell on the panic button after the CO state convention…but our *county* level meetings had been so civil, by comparison. Take No Shit! No Fucks Will Be Given!
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@BillinGlendaleCA: I stumbled and fell a lot as a young kid, but eventually “grew out of it” or something. That basement tumble was my first in a long time and quite a shock because it happened so quickly. Be careful! :-)
Cheers,
Scott.
randy khan
The NY Times is now estimating Clinton will get around 140 delegates and Sanders around 108 (which adds up to 248, but it’s a model and a little fuzzy).
Elie
@Miss Bianca:
LOL! Thanks for the encouragement! The history here is of supreme disorganization that drives everyone wild. I expressed my “grrrr” from remembering a Bernie-ite who backed me down at the caucus — who ended up interpreting the numbers differently than I did. She was a mountain and I just had to psychologically deal with her image when I thought of this next event… I am hoping that won’t be the case but the Bernie-ites at the caucus would not take reason beyond what they wanted — a complete Bernie victory. A lot of my friends are Bernie-ites and I have had to keep it mostly to myself… including my husband (who has now more or less thrown in the towel)!
Miss Bianca
@Elie: Ooh, your husband? Awwkward… And here I was feeling martyred just dealing with my Sandernista friends on FB! (Resisting the temptation to do a victory lap on social media. *very* bad form, right? Victory with Dignity, shall be our motto).
Ken
@randy khan: Yep, looks like it’s all over except for the diehards explaining that winning New York doesn’t mean anything, because the Democrats will win that in the general election anyway.