@ProfJeffJarvis is the only thing that makes twitter worth reading for me.
Archives for April 2016
Once I can get my hands on a transcript I’ll do a longer and fuller treatment. My initial impression and key take away from Mr. Trump’s foreign policy remarks is that the Trump Doctrine is: America will be treated fairly. Essentially National Security and Foreign Policy Narcissism. It is all about us and being treated well, properly, fairly however Mr. Trump defines those things. More to follow later on.
At noon today Donald Trump is going to give a foreign policy speech. The reporting indicates that these are prepared remarks that he will present with the assistance of a teleprompter. It will be interesting to see how much nuance and polish his aides, and specifically whoever was tasked to assist him with preparing this speech, will have been able to apply to the off the cuff remarks he has been hammering in regards to foreign policy. The key items to look for, and to compare and contrast today’s remarks with how he usually presents them, are:
- The economic impacts of our foreign policy, specifically the defense components of maintaining an expeditionary force posture with significant overseas basing, exercise, and operational commitments. Mr. Trump has repeatedly asserted that our allies, partners, and clients have been taking advantage of us, they are costing us tremendous amounts of money, and that they will have to start paying up and beefing up their own defenses or they could find themselves without American military support.
- NATO. Mr. Trump has repeatedly asserted that NATO is obsolete, too expensive, and not doing much for the US but getting it into trouble. Interestingly enough this is very close to the position held by Vladimir Putin. It should be interesting to see how Mr. Trump presents this portion of his speech since hiring Mr. Manafort as his senior advisor. Mr. Manafort’s has ties to Vladimir Putin, originally via Victor Yanukovych, for the purposes of shaping opinion in regards to Russia’s actions in Crimea and the Donbass.
- Nuclear Weapons. Mr. Trump has repeatedly argued that nuclear weapons are a terrible threat and at the same time argued that if Japan and South Korea don’t open their wallets and start paying the US to secure them, then it would make sense for them to develop their own nuclear deterrent for dealing with North Korea.
- China. Mr. Trump has relentlessly and repeatedly hammered that China is killing us economically while saying he alone could do proper and profitable, Nation to Nation, business with China. It will be interesting to see and hear what, if any, actual strategy Mr. Trump has to accomplish this.
- Terrorism. Mr. Trump has repeatedly argued he is the only one who will get properly tough with terrorists, especially the Islamic State and its supporters. He has asserted that he would bring back water boarding and then transition to worse, would target the families of terrorists, and would knock the Islamic State out so fast. Here too it will be interesting to see what, if any, specifics are brought forward and how coherent they are or are not.
Here’s a link to the live feed, which I’m going to try to embed below. I’ll be back later tonight with an policy and strategy analysis of his remarks (and hopefully a link to the full transcript provided a transcript is released).
Building on Betty’s post this morning on how we need to build a leftward pendulum swing at all levels of government and society, I want to endorse and fundraise for promising candidate for Oakland County Commissioner in Michigan:
Charles Gaba is the guy behind ACASignups.net which is the go-to source for all enrollment information about the Exchanges and a very good clearinghouse for lots of other health wonkery.
He is running for County Commissioner in a suburban county in the Detroit metro area where the Presidential top-lines have the county as a lean Democratic area but the local government has a significant Republican presence. He is doing something about that and I want to help a colleague and a fellow wonk. So if you can spare a few bucks, help elect a wonky progressive to a county government board:
Here is Charles’ Act Blue link: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/gaba
Though I ultimately voted for Clinton in my primary, I was an early Sanders supporter and still subscribe to the theory that his candidacy moved the political conversation in the Democratic Party leftward. I think this is a good thing.
The pendulum of U.S. politics had swung way too far to the right, beginning with Reagan and continuing with Bush I. President Bill Clinton slowed it down, but Bush II accelerated it again. President Obama arrested the rightward motion and turned it back.
Now we need to build on that and achieve a period of liberal ascendency, and we need to expand it beyond the federal level to retake state governments. That’s too big a job for one person. That sort of sustained effort takes a party.
One concern I had about Sanders’ candidacy, and particularly the tone the senator took after being routed in New York, was that the young voters he was attracting were lightly affiliated with the Democrats. But there are heartening signs that this may not be the case.
Josh Marshall at TPM has more about the Harvard Institute of Politics poll (alluded to in Anne Laurie’s morning post here) that explored millennials’ political leanings in depth. Here are some of the findings:
— Among 18 to 29 year olds, Clinton beats Trump 61% to 25% to 14% undecided
— In spring of 2015, this age group wanted the Democratic Party to win the next presidential election by 15 points (55% to 40%); a year later, that spread has increased to 28 points (61% to 32%)
— For the first time in five years, the number of self-identified Democrats is higher than self-identified independents (Dem 40%-Indy 36%-GOP 22%)
Marshall points to other evidence in the polling data that suggests younger voters are becoming not only more liberal but more Democratic and concludes: “the primary process itself – as divisive as it has sometimes seemed – has deepened young voters’ identification with the Democratic Party.”
I don’t know about you, but for me, reading that is a tonic after a week of hearing comments that echoed the disastrous run-up to Nadergeddon 2000, e.g., “duopoly” and “there’s not a dime’s worth of difference,” etc.
The Democratic Party isn’t perfect, but it is the vehicle we have to effect change. Secretary Clinton, who will be our nominee, understands this better than most. That may make her the perfect woman for this particular time in history.
Here’s hoping Senator Sanders’ younger supporters won’t wait for Secretary Clinton to court them but rather will roll up their sleeves and take on the hard tasks of party building to create the political future they want to see. Because it takes a party.
ETA: J-TWO-O is keeping a running tally of Democratic Party primary and caucus vote totals. Secretary Clinton’s lead increased to more than three million last night.
Poll: Hillary Clinton's "millennial problem" disappears against Donald Trump – Vox https://t.co/PWVjjzToFT
— Will Rabbe (@WillRabbe) April 26, 2016
(click to embiggen text)
— Gabriel Debenedetti (@gdebenedetti) April 26, 2016
I was in the war room in the basement of the Pepsi Center in Denver in 08 when HRC walked through on her way to the stage for her speech…
— Greg Pinelo (@gregpinelo) April 26, 2016
Team Obama gave her a huge ovation, respect for an incredibly tough foe who then put party and country first & gave an incredible speech…
— Greg Pinelo (@gregpinelo) April 26, 2016
Now, a lot of us who were in that Obama war room in Denver are working our hearts out for her. She earned it that night and every day since.
— Greg Pinelo (@gregpinelo) April 26, 2016
So that’s the job for the next six months. But in the short term… what’s on the agenda for the day?
As I was listening to Trump
verbally blow himself deliver his victory speech tonight, I noticed Chris Christie once again had that pole-axed look that garnered so much ridicule when he wore it on Super Tuesday following his endorsement of Trump. Then it hit me: Cupcake Dog!
Cupcake Dog was a meme that originated from an episode of “It’s Me or the Dog” when the dog trainer lady managed to get an unruly Australian shepherd to stop his kitchen raids and demonstrated his reformation by holding a plate of cupcakes under his nose, with hilarious results.
I was going to do a “separated at birth”-style mashup, but when I went searching for images, I found a Kossak had beaten me to it:
The dog is a beautiful, noble creature whereas Christie is a loathsome prick, of course. But the look of pained, desperate aversion is identical. Open thread!