Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

I was promised a recession.

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

Fuck the extremist election deniers. What’s money for if not for keeping them out of office?

I know this must be bad for Joe Biden, I just don’t know how.

Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

It’s easy to sit in safety and prescribe what other people should be doing.

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

Joe Lieberman disappointingly reemerged to remind us that he’s still alive.

Good lord, these people are nuts.

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

Republicans choose power over democracy, every day.

Just because you believe it, that doesn’t make it true.

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

Following reporting rules is only for the little people, apparently.

Why is it so hard for them to condemn hate?

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Five years going by

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There aren’t many people who foresaw the Trumpocalypse, but here’s Steve M. from April 2011:

But can’t you see him magisterially propelling himself into an Iowa state fair, or down a main street in small-town New Hampshire, in a motorcade of Escalades? And are we really sure that couldn’t work — winning the nomination, by being the macher, the mack, the big pimp?

[….]

The folks who moan that we’re on “the road to serfdom” — don’t they really want to be the serfs of rich guys like Trump?

I just don’t know. I’ve always heard that campaigning in the early states was an exercise in humility — the pigshit on your Gucci loafers at the Iowa state fair and all that. But is it different now on the right? Does the base want to prostrate itself before a plutocrat overlord, and not hold him to the same standards as mere mortals?

Reader Interactions

214Comments

  4. 4.

    chopper

    still wrapping my head around the idea that it’s gonna be fucking trump. honest to god.

  6. 6.

    gene108

    @chopper:

    still wrapping my head around the idea that it’s gonna be fucking trump. honest to god.

    I’m O.K. with Trump, as long as he can drag down ticket races for the Republicans.

    I’ve seen a few ads here and there, where people attack Republicans for standing with Trump. I hope he becomes terribly toxic for Republicans. It’d be great for us, if they had a Presidential candidate, whose presence at a down ticket candidate’s rally would hurt the down ticket candidate.

  9. 9.

    hellslittlestangel

    A picture from the upcoming Republican convention: five fat guys, shit-faced drunk, with T-R-U-M-P spelled out in red paint on their bare chests.

  12. 12.

    Tilda Swinton's Bald Cap

    Saw this mentioned over at LGF, but Trump will probably start getting CIA briefings.

  16. 16.

    BillinGlendaleCA

    @hellslittlestangel:

    A picture from the upcoming Republican convention: five fat guys, shit-faced drunk, with T-R-U-M-P spelled out in red painttattooed in red on their bare chests.

  19. 19.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Tilda Swinton’s Bald Cap: Its a tradition and a custom. However, it doesn’t necessarily have to happen. I would think that there is serious concern among the IC, let alone the White House, about his and his senior advisors ability to maintain classification. Mr. Manafort will not get a clearance unless Trump should become President, as he’s too closely tied to several foreign heads of state, including Putin, for anyone to allow him to see any of this material now.

  22. 22.

    hellslittlestangel

    @dollared: I hear he also promised to pay their wages, along with huuuuge bonuses, the day after election day.

  23. 23.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @hellslittlestangel:

    A picture from the upcoming Republican convention: five fat guys, shit-faced drunk, with T-R-U-M-P T-U-M-P-R spelled out in red paint on their bare chests.

  26. 26.

    dollared

    I think there’s still a path to glory for Cruz. Trump loses big, and Texas is going to need a post-secession president. And I’m sure there will be enough left over equipment to invade Cuba.

    Yeah, this is all gonna work out great.

  27. 27.

    Anoniminous

    @schrodinger’s cat:

    That “BS campaign” came from an 8 point polling deficit to win by 5.4 points.

    ETA: Clinton is a Pro. She isn’t a dew-drop wilting flower. The Sanders campaign isn’t “hurting her.”

  30. 30.

    JWR

    Just a note to say this: Remember ’79-’80. I truly could not wrap my head around The Ronald becoming our President. Here’s hoping The Klinton™ manages to crush The Donald.

  32. 32.

    enplaned

    Sanders is a 74 year old man on political Viagra. It’s lasted way more than four hours, he really ought to see a doctor, but it’s the best experience he’s had in 30 years, and he’s going to achieve satisfaction or die trying.

  35. 35.

    Anoniminous

    BTW, everybody remember that GOP faction fight we’ve been forecasting?

    This is what it looks like.

  36. 36.

    Adam L Silverman

    @efgoldman: Anything is possible. There are probably several counter-intel folks right now with very bad indigestion.

  39. 39.

    eemom

    There aren’t many people who foresaw the Trumpocalypse

    My husband did. Not in the lame-ass blathering fantasy style of a Steve M back in 2011 — but in March or April 2015, eedad saw Trump give a speech at the National Press Club and said, quite seriously, he’s gonna be the republican candidate. And I, just like everybody else in the world would have done at the time, including but not limited to every last cog in the emmessemm-industrial complex, laughed my ass off at him.

  41. 41.

    BR

    @Anoniminous:

    That “BS campaign” came from an 8 point polling deficit to win by 5.4 points.

    Eh, not really. Indiana polling was no good, and in Al Giordano’s projections he figured on a Sanders win based on demographics and other factors.

  43. 43.

    Jeffro

    I told my kids that once again (like in 2008) they were watching history in the making…just not the good kind this time. I told them that if you get beyond the personalities and see all of this as forces in motion, we’re watching the death throes of a major national party, about to put up a know-nothing misogynist racist blowhard reality TV star with no experience in any sort of government or any position of responsibility whatsoever as a candidate for president of the United States.

    I’d like to think that team Clinton/Kaine, Obama, Biden, B.Clinton, Warren, and assorted others have got this. But just in case, I’m going to clear my schedule a bit (to help with GOTV) and hold off on the discretionary purchases a bit, the better to free up party and other needed donations. Let’s say through November?

  44. 44.

    Punchy

    @Anoniminous: So he’s mere steps from victory now, eh?

    Sanders did his thing, keeping HRC honest. Time to give it up and patch up the hard feelings. Although as a non-Dem, he may not, and become the biggest Judas since Nadar.

  46. 46.

    patroclus

    If the RedStaters and NeverTrumpers are serious, it would be very easy to defeat Trump. They don’t even have to do a national campaign – they would just need a Texas favorite son to run in Texas, who could pull enough votes to deny it to Trump. And, he would never win the Presidency without Texas no matter what all the other swing states did. Or, it wouldn’t have to be Texas although that’s the red state that has the most electoral votes. A Utah-based LDS candidate could do the same; maybe even a Florida-based or Ohio-based candidate. The third party’s national numbers wouldn’t be high, but 15% or so in Texas (or another big state) could do it. And now that the fascist has wrapped up a major party’s nomination so early, they’ve got plenty of time to do it. If they were serious about it. We’ll see.

  48. 48.

    Jeffro

    @Anoniminous: yes, and we need to remember that: a great deal of the GOP is not happy tonight…they may not vote for HRC, but if not, whether they write in a protest vote or stay home, it will only help us in November.

    The stars might lie, but the numbers never do, and right now the numbers say any Republican would be at a disadvantage. With Trump being that Republican, the effect is doubled.

    Stick to pocketbook and rights issues, HRC, and you’ll have it made.

  49. 49.

    Mnemosyne

    Morning: Hamilton gets a record 16 Tony nominations

    Evening: Cruz drops out of Republican primary.

    Today was a good day.

  51. 51.

    joes527

    Douthat:

    Look if you name your child “Reince Priebus” and he ends up as a functionary in an authoritarian regime you only have yourself to blame.

    Their tears are delicious

  52. 52.

    Mai.naem.mobile

    So who’s Trumpster going to pick for Veep? Paul Ryan? Kasich? Paul LePage? NM governator Suzanna Martinez? Chris Christie?Can’t see Nikki Haley taking it. Tim Scott?

  56. 56.

    Punchy

    @Mai.naem.mobile: He’s a celebrity. He aint picking a career polly; he’s going for another (albeit lesser) celeb. I’m thinking Dennis Miller or Bill O’Reilly…

  58. 58.

    cmorenc

    Immediately following Trump’s victory speech tonight, CNN wasted no time pivoting to horse-race coverage of the November election, with John King playing “what if” with his dynamic electoral college map board. King and Blitzer are going to be more insufferable than ever from now until the election in November.

  60. 60.

    catclub

    @JWR: 1980 economy was down 5% in GDP.
    Carter losing was utterly predictable based on that alone.

    Today’s economy: lots of people saying there might be a recession are wrong wrong wrong, at least for the next few years. The fed has learned a little, and what is has learned is: do not kill a recovery by raising interest rates too fast.

  64. 64.

    geg6

    @The Sheriff Endorses Baud 2016:

    This is how I’ve been seeing it. And it’s delicious. And Nancy Reagan passing in the middle of it and getting barely any notice due to the media’s laser focus on the short-fingered vulgarian is just icing on the cake. So glad I lived to see this humiliation in real time. Karma, she is a hadass bitch.

  65. 65.

    Mike J

    @lamh36: ‘

    Trump now vetting VP picks, two senior campaign sources tell me.

    He does know that doesn’t mean taking them to the vet for the old snip-snip, doesn’t he?

    Doesn’t he?

  67. 67.

    Haydnseek

    @efgoldman: He sure as hell was. He was governor of California when I was in high school, and his signature is on my college diploma. A friend of mine had his diploma molded into a clear acrylic toilet seat cover to display his eternal love for the gipper.

  71. 71.

    JWR

    @catclub:

    1980 economy was down 5% in GDP. Carter losing was utterly predictable based on that alone.

    Good point. Guess I was too focused on the monster I saw in Reagan, and hoping the rest of America would see it as well.

  73. 73.

    Punchy

    @catclub: I’d forgotten about The Nuge. Thats a dark horse fo shiz. Others include Curt Schilling or Ben Stein.

  76. 76.

    Anoniminous

    @Punchy:

    Why do you HillFans feel the need to put words in people’s mouths? When and where did I write “So he’s mere steps from victory now?” For that matter, when and where did I write Sanders was going to win the nomination?

    Grow the fuck up.

    @BR:

    Polling data is what it is.

  77. 77.

    Adam L Silverman

    @catclub: There used to be a program – not sure what its called now that Tom Clancy wrote about it in Red Storm Rising – where different versions of the same information were briefed to different people (elected and appointed officials) that needed to know the information. That way if there was a leak they’d be able to know where it came from based on how the information was worded.

  78. 78.

    The Sheriff Endorses Baud 2016

    @Anoniminous:

    Polling data is what it is.

    The pollsters were asleep at the wheel again if they didn’t recognize Indiana’s demographics were closer to Wisconsin than Ohio.

  80. 80.

    Corner Stone

    @Adam L Silverman: I always thought that was soft. Who would pinpoint specific language that could be traced back.
    Len Deighton did the same thing in the Bernd Sampson series. Which I love.

  81. 81.

    Alain the site fixer

    Given his history and public persona evolution with/because of professional wrestling, does anyone else wonder if he’s going to be a classic baddie for Hillary to slay? It’s a weird new world we’re in, but I remain constantly suspicious of closely connected actors. Like that George H. W. Bush had dinner with John Hinckley’s parents the night before their son tried to assassinate President Reagan.

  82. 82.

    Anoniminous

    @schrodinger’s cat:

    Ah, I thought BS stood for something else.

    Of course he isn’t going to win. So What? That’s not the point of this campaign for me and many, many, other Bernie worker and supporters.

  85. 85.

    starscream

    I think he will definitely pick an experienced pol. My guess is Christie, unless he can find a woman to counter claims of misogyny (Palin? Nah…).

  86. 86.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Corner Stone: I don’t and have never been involved in anything remotely close to CI so your guess is as good as mine. They have their ways and I’m sure they’ll be appropriately proactive.

  88. 88.

    Corner Stone

    I predict there will be a near black hole implosion level of gravitational compaction in the Republican party due to sheer number and size of people jumping wholesale onboard the Trump candidacy.

  89. 89.

    The Other Chuck

    @Adam L Silverman: I’m sure what it was originally called is was in ancient Chinese or Sumerian, since it ain’t exactly a new tactic, but it’s not something you do regularly unless you suspect an outright mole. If all you do is fudge some details, it hardly matters if the core secret is getting told to the wrong people, and if you tell a completely different story, you sow confusion all the way around. Tom Clancy novels aren’t exactly pillars of verisimilitude.

    But knowing Trump will just make shit up anyway, maybe they will tell him whoppers. More likely the tradition of sharing ends.

  90. 90.

    Elie

    @The Sheriff Endorses Baud 2016:

    It was an open primary with crossovers. On the Republican side a smaller denominator pushes Trump over 50%. It will take a long time to figure out who stayed home and who votes. These are primaries — also — VERY small denominators. Don’t be fooled by comparisons to other years. Primaries reflect the smaller but more intense constituency of each party…. We draw a lot of conclusions from weak and unstable data. People in campaigns get facked out by these early results and then are unprepared for the real the real bloody beast lingering underneath. I am still not convinced Trump and his people really understand “ground game”. We will see.

  91. 91.

    Anoniminous

    @The Sheriff Endorses Baud 2016:

    It’s my understanding Indiana is closer to Kentucky and downstate Illinois than Wisconsin, neither nor there … really.

    The pollsters are having a problem globally, not just in the US, due to the under 35s going mobile only. Pollsters have a hard time making calls to mobiles which vitiates the “equal chance” provision, thus creating a bit of a Dewey-Defeats-Truman situation. Couple with the known difficulty of creating the polling screen for primaries and here we are.

  94. 94.

    Anya

    Imma need Bernie Sanders to stop this madness unless he wants to hand the election to the Carnival Barker. He’s on CNN (by phone) with Jake Tapper still talking like he’s campaign has a chance to win.

  96. 96.

    AkaDad

    After Hillary becomes the nominee and Bernie’s supporters board the Hill train, I predict her unfavorables will drop below 50%.

  99. 99.

    Lizzy L

    Chris Christie wants to be attorney general — that way he’ll actually get to do something. Besides, he likes his balls right where they currently are.

    How about — Newtie!

  100. 100.

    starscream

    @Anya: the same democratic establishment that raised money for him in 2006, on whose behalf he attended exclusive fundraisers for wealthy donors…I’ve gotten very tired of this old fraud’s bullshit.

  102. 102.

    Mai.naem.mobile

    Seriously I saw a snippet of a Trumpster interview this weekend where he said he needed to pick an experienced politician so he could get legislation passed. I am thinking he may go with a woman, a Florida Cuban Rep/pol or somebody like Jeff Sessions. It has to be somebody who’s willing to be a sacrificial lamb/grifter/old fart about to retire.

  103. 103.

    Amaranthine RBG

    @Lizzy L: Heh, on another site I visit that has a pretty high concentration of RWNJs people were all over Newt the other day. People kept using words like “gravitas” and talking about how he delivered balanced budgets ….

    You could be right.

  105. 105.

    pseudonymous in nc

    This is going to be a big fucking test of the political media’s capacity to call a turd a turd.

    And I suspect they’re going to fail.

  106. 106.

    Anya

    @starscream: He’s the ranking member of the Senate Budget Committee but somehow he’s an outsider. Who is considered an establishment if a two term senator is not part of the establishment?

    I wish Hillary campaigned in Indiana. She was so close without even campaigning.

  107. 107.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Amaranthine RBG: It won’t be Newt. As I wrote in the previous thread:

    I think Newt Gingrich thinks Trump is going to pick Newt Gingrich for VP. I don’t think it will happen. Each of them always think they’re the smartest person in the room at all times. That’s not going to be a good combo. And Gingrich’s well known negatives are far to well known and would too easily be turned into oppo advertising fodder.

  109. 109.

    Reggie Mantle

    I am LOL at the Hillaristas saying what Bernie needs to do after his victory in Indiana is to drop out.

  110. 110.

    Amaranthine RBG

    @Adam L Silverman: Who’s your wild ass guess?

    I don’t have an individual in mind, but I am guessing that he will go with a woman or minority because he really does think that voters are that stupid.

    Going for an established politician would almost be a tacit admission that he doesn’t know what the fuck he’s doing so he needs someone to help steer the ship and I don’t think he could countenance that.

  111. 111.

    Schlemazel Khan

    Republicans are now going to have top answer, do you love your party more than your country?
    If it really is elephant uber alles then they’ll vote for Donald DumpsterFire
    If they truly love their country they will vote for Clinton
    If they can’t make up what is left of their mind they can stay home on election day

  112. 112.

    M. Bouffant

    Not to lessen Steve M.’s prescience, but even he couldn’t predictimagine the racism, bigotry, xenophobia ad nauseum, let alone the inconsistency & incoherence that Trump would spew.

  115. 115.

    Elie

    @Anya:

    Yeah, if he had won here, she would have finished him off. Now he has oxygen for at least a little while…

    Guam, WVA, Ky, and Oregon from May 7 – 17th. All closed or semi closed primaries (Guam is a caucus)… Bernie has done best with caucus or open primaries where indies and republicans can vote. My guess is that all open primaries will attract ratfuckers more than even since the Republican choise has been sewn up. Hillary has been campaigning hard in WVA.

    Shit, I wish this was over…

  116. 116.

    Anya

    So, when will Trump start receiving national security briefings? I still can’t believe this is our reality!

  118. 118.

    Elie

    @Mike J:

    Wow — Oh so sorry I missed part B of your comment. My goodness ! So early in the year for this! Wow! Its like all we know and believe is up in flames these days!

  121. 121.

    NotMax

    @Anya

    After he’s officially become a nominee, not a candidate, at the convention. Same time frame as always.

  122. 122.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Amaranthine RBG: I made a smartassed guess in the previous thread: Megyn Kelly. But honestly I really don’t know. Among governors there’s only a couple that seem to be willing to openly support him: Christie and Scott for instance. I think Christie is unlikely to get it. I don’t see Scott doing much for Trump. He’s just strange. Florida’s AG, if she was still the same weight she was five or six years ago, would seem like someone he’d pick. But given that she’s, like most of us, put on weight as she’s aged, I don’t think she fits the image he expects women to project. Even more so when they’re one of “his women”. Honestly I really don’t know. And I think whoever he picks is going to elicit one of two reactions: 1) that makes sense or 2) no one saw that coming.

  125. 125.

    Amaranthine RBG

    @efgoldman: I’d say that the difference is maybe that the Shrub knew in his heart that he fell short, even when compared to his father, whereas Trump knows deep down in his soul that he DESERVES to be President.

  126. 126.

    JWR

    @Schlemazel Khan:

    If it really is elephant uber alles then they’ll vote for Donald DumpsterFire … If they truly love their country they will vote for Clinton

    Speaking from personal experience, (some family members), it’s the former. They truly hate and fear HRC. Why? Talk radio; FOX, etc. In other words, Reich wing propaganda.

  128. 128.

    FlyingToaster

    @NotMax: Senator Centerfold couldn’t get a bill passed to rename the Nonantum post office. Plus he’s in with the Romney people, who (at least used to) hate Trump.

    Plus I don’t think Lil’ Scotty wants to get beat by another girl.

  129. 129.

    NotMax

    @Anya

    it goes back a ways but, IIRC, within living memory. In the 21st century security atmosphere, it is de rigueur.

  130. 130.

    CarolDuhart2

    Ben Carson. No ambitions for political office and none to lose. Will not outshine Trump. Would be content to do traditional VP stuff like attending funerals and standing supportively next to the Trump. Wife less attractive than Melania, no temptation there. Will say what he’s told to say.

  131. 131.

    The Other Chuck

    @srv:

    John Cole, your FP account at RedState probably still works

    They probably not only nuked his account but made sure to erase every last trace of him from the archives and all the backups.

  133. 133.

    trollhattan

    @Mai.naem.mobile:
    Is Charo alive? I’d pay to watch that. In case not, I’m pushing Ashley Swearengin. She’s the Donald’s type and I calculate her hands-on political experience to be roughly infinity times his.

  135. 135.

    Adam L Silverman

    @NotMax: That’s a possibility. I still think he’ll try to find a woman, just not sure who would 1) want to be on that ticket (other than Palin) and 2) he would think meets his standards – as in his belief about what “his women” should look like and act like (be very subservient). While a lot of the Republican elected officials in Congress aren’t unattractive, none of them scream supermodel. I can’t imagine it would be Governor Haley or Martinez. Maybe first term Utah GOP Congresswoman Mia Love? That would give him a three for: very attractive, African American of Afro-Caribbean descent, and exceedingly conservative. The last two having an amplifying effect on each other. However, given her social and religious views, I’m not sure she’d want to be associated with him, but you never know.

    ETA: her parents, who fled the Tonton Macoute took advantage of the program that allowed green card holders from the western hemisphere to become citizens if they had a child born in the US. So while the family’s story is inspiring, Trump’s supporters would likely call her an anchor baby.

  136. 136.

    Dog Dawg Damn

    We are literally moving back to a blue state. Can’t handle this insanity. I hope to Dawg that Trump is in a demographic cul-de-sac, as they say, but if he manages to snatch this, I want to be shielded from the fallout, if possible.

  137. 137.

    CarolDuhart2

    @sdhays: He probably woutd rather have low energy now. He thinks he has enough for them both, and probably prefers something nonthreating more than he needs a firebrand who could outshine him on the stump.

    Either Carson or some retired pol who would probably share most of Trump’s opinions and has nothing to lose. A reitred pol would feel free to say and defend him because if Trump loses, he (and it will be a he) will just go back to retirement with a nice set of stories for the speech circuit.

  138. 138.

    Wapiti

    @Anya: Perhaps she wants Sanders to remain on her flank, for a while, if only to prevent the Donald from running to her left. I assume at this point that she knows what she’s doing. She certainly can demonstrate that she isn’t worried about getting the nomination and can turn her attention to the general. Any effort the campaign spends against Sen Sanders is lost effort in a month.

  140. 140.

    trollhattan

    Hey y’all, National Review is having a moment.

    As of tonight, we might know whether Donald Trump will be the Republican presidential candidate. And barring unforeseeable events, it is certain that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee. Those are two reasons (of many, unfortunately) why — other than the first years of the Civil War, when the survival of the United States as one country was in jeopardy — there was never a darker time in American history.

    “Never a darker time.” Never? Dunno about you but that sounds serious.
    H/T LGM

  141. 141.

    Adam L Silverman

    @NotMax: Its customary and traditional. Its not in any statute or regulation. But its been going on as long as I can remember.

  142. 142.

    trollhattan

    @Wapiti:
    If the Donald actually decided to “run to her left” then I’m buying rapture insurance. Mahew, hook a brother up.

  144. 144.

    ? Martin

    Don’t assume the GOP disarray will last. For decades they’ve been building castles from shit – coalitions that have no policy alignment whatsoever. Cleeks Law is well internalized within the GOP:

    Emma Green: What do you actually mean by conservative?

    Joshua Dunn: Whoever thinks they’re conservative.

    Jon Shields: American conservatism is kind of a coalition against liberalism that includes different camps. One of our colleagues put it well: American conservatives are united by two self-evident truths—Nancy Pelosi and Barbara Boxer.

    Conservatives are held together by a common enemy, so they don’t always share common philosophical foundations or similar policy ambitions. We thought about conservatism in a big-tent way that would include libertarians and cultural conservatives and fusionists and foreign-policy hawks—a broad range.

    These guys will yell and scream for a week and then figure out that they hate Hillary and Trump will be the conservative candidate Reagan could only dream of.

    That doesn’t mean Trump will win, but it means that they’ll get their shit together, throw a billion dollars at Trump’s campaign, go after Hillary like we’ve never even dreamt of and then flame out when some key battleground state gets called the moment the polls close. The GOP will do their analysis, decide that latinos and women are key to the party’s future, and then nominate Cruz in 2020 and lose to Hillary again.

  146. 146.

    amk

    If there is any retired military wingnut around, especially the pox news kind, bet he would be the carnival barker’s veep pick. The emmessem will swoon over that p(r)ick’s ‘foreign policy’ chops.

  149. 149.

    The Dangerman

    It’ll be Palin. Saves a few dollars; she was already vetted by McCain.

    ;-)

  151. 151.

    Adam L Silverman

    @amk: As I wrote in the comments in the last thread:

    Most won’t want to be involved. Retired general officers/flag officers largely go out of their way to remain apolitical (officially) so they can continue to provide advice and counsel. There will be a lot of peer pressure among that group to keep something like this from happening. Is it possible? Sure. Probably? I’m not so sure.

    I’ll add, before someone brings it up, that picking someone from below the general officer/flag officer ranks would be a huge risk. There are many, many more retired colonels/captains, lieutenant colonels/commanders. Its not that they’re a dime a dozen, but its unlikely that one of them would be helpful. That leaves one that has garnered some notoriety, like Congressman West. I’m not sure that would work well. From everything I understand he has a very dominant personality and a very rigid and inflexible set of morals and values.

  152. 152.

    NotMax

    @efgoldman

    Yes and yes. So many more examples from which to choose, from the British burning the White House to the Cuban Missile Crisis.

  153. 153.

    catclub

    @? Martin:

    throw a billion dollars at Trump’s campaign

    I am not sure that part is happening. I think the Koch brothers have said they will concentrate on downticket races.

  154. 154.

    CarolDuhart2

    @? Martin: Before the Republicans made sure to nominate someone who at least was superficially acceptable. Reagan: two term Governor of California and trained spokesperson. GHWB, fairly extensive resume and VP: Gorge W Bush, two-term Governor of Texas. Enough not to scare Suburbanites themselves: the dirty tricks and nastiness were outsourced to people only loosely connected to the campaign allowing for plausible deniability. Trump has neither the resume or attitude to reassure suburbanites that he knows how to govern at all.

  155. 155.

    catclub

    Can I just note that Doug! ‘s nym probably needs updating now.

    Is there a giant combover emoji?

  156. 156.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Omnes Omnibus: My limits are self imposed because I don’t know who will win or who they’ll appoint. This is why even when I did my analysis of Trump’s foreign policy speech I kept it professional and explained that I thought, from a campaigning standpoint, as opposed to a policy standpoint, it was genius. Its also why I’m not going to advocate for a specific candidate or recommend anyone vote for anyone. And when, whoever the Democratic nominee is, gives their big foreign policy speech, its going to get the same treatment as Mr. Trump’s got.

    In this case we’re all just speculating about potential VP choices. And we’re going to be doing the same thing on the Democratic side soon enough. This isn’t picking sides or winners or advocating, its just guesstimating. And since I’m not in a Title 5, Title 10, term appointment, Intergovernmental Personnel Appointment, or even a regular contract position right now – I’m just a consultant – I’m not violating the Hatch Act or any employer guidelines.

    I also don’t think I’m anywhere near the line, let alone hanging way over it.

  157. 157.

    gwangung

    @catclub:

    I am not sure that part is happening. I think the Koch brothers have said they will concentrate on downticket races.

    Which, frankly, is far more dangerous to us.

  160. 160.

    BBA

    I think the Trump campaign has reached the stage where we need to look to Third Amendment solutions.

    No, that’s not a typo.

  161. 161.

    sdhays

    @CarolDuhart2: I don’t know… I kind of feel like Trump’s a “double-down” kind of guy. I just don’t see sleepy Carson fitting the brand. Carson has also been a poor surrogate; I think Trump will demand someone who can stay on-script (whatever it happens to be that day) always, always kiss and defend the ring.

    I could see Gingrich, possibly, and I don’t see Trump worrying about Newt’s “negatives” since he clearly isn’t that worried about his own. I think Trump would respect Newt’s supreme confidence in himself, despite being a moron and an embarrassment to his party. I don’t think Christie performed well-enough after endorsing Trump to earn the VP slot. And I see the argument for Trump trying to scrounge up a woman to run with, but how many high-ranking Republican women (there aren’t that many) would be willing to run on his ticket?

    I think Trump finds someone like Trump, someone who’s persona is an asshole, and probably male. Bill O’Reilly’s an interesting thought, although I think Bill is waaay too comfortable in his cushy Fox job to drop it to do actual work like campaigning. It’s got to be someone that Trump feels he can “legitimately” call “great” and “fabulous”.

    Funnily enough, I think if Carly hadn’t gotten into the dust-up with Trump during the primary so he ignored her instead of calling her ugly and disgusting, I think she very possibly would have had a shot at being his VP candidate. I think Trump would appreciate her anti-Hillary shtick, and she’s every bit the asshole Trump is.

  163. 163.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Adam L Silverman: Cool. I just didn’t want you to overstep your limits in the excitement of the moment. I was an army officer and I am a lawyer. The combination means i don’t what “my people” to wander into trouble.

  164. 164.

    trollhattan

    @efgoldman:
    Ooops, used a bad word.

    Possibly the weirdest twenty minutes in television, Palin’s Trump endorsement. His po[r]ker face is good, but not that good.

    At the very least I demand she go on the stump for him. Hours of delicious video. She should bring Duffel.

  165. 165.

    seaboogie

    @Betty Cracker: I think we’ll soon be needing a picture of your chickens, on their roosts to illustrate the current GOP situation. Maybe one of your drawn images, with some Trump hair on them. You’ll have better ideas than I do at the moment.

  166. 166.

    Adam L Silverman

    @amk: It is a very interesting community of professionals. And the general officer/flag officer subset is its own unique culture. They pride themselves on being apolitical – not that they’re not good politicians, they have to be, but rather that they’re apartisan in terms of political affiliation. And while there are a couple that have taken some clearly partisan positions since retirement, even the ones that have accepted political appointments in a Republican or Democratic administration have still managed to try to stay out of the electoral politics side of things. These men and women who are almost all products of the All Volunteer Force (there are a few that are from previous generations that are still around, but they’re largely too old to be picked as a running mate) have a very different understanding than their predecessors. You aren’t going to find too many General Haig’s among the current cohorts – whether retired or currently serving.

  169. 169.

    starscream

    Rightly or wrongly, Nader’s legacy is “the guy who gave us Dubya.” I hope Bernie understands that being a douche at the convention risks making his legacy even worse.

  170. 170.

    ? Martin

    @sdhays:

    I think Trump finds someone like Trump, someone who’s persona is an asshole, and probably male. Bill O’Reilly’s an interesting thought, although I think Bill is waaay too comfortable in his cushy Fox job to drop it to do actual work like campaigning. It’s got to be someone that Trump feels he can “legitimately” call “great” and “fabulous”.

    Trump campaigned on being the alpha – that’s the entirety of his platform. He’s not going to have another alpha on the ticket.

  171. 171.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Omnes Omnibus: I understand and appreciate it.

    Believe me I’ve written comments, I’ve even drafted a post or two, and then hit delete rather than post because I thought I was too close to the line.

    Even if I was in one of those positions it would depend on what the PAO and/or my company’s rules were. When I was at the Army War College we were encouraged to write for public consumption on topics within our expertise. I always made sure that 1) I had the disclaimer after every post and 2) a copy was sent to the PAO so there would be no surprises. She told me I didn’t need to do the latter as she trusted me, which I appreciated, but I always wanted to make sure there wouldn’t be surprises.

  172. 172.

    The Dangerman

    Ya know, Palin makes a lot of sense in a way; she has no political future so she doesn’t lose anything by hopping on a sure loser. At least she gets her name in the bright lights one last time (see Fiorina, Carly).

    Also, I’m still not convinced that, deep down, Trump wants to be President; Obama was close to the truth the other night, it was all about getting Trump’s name in the bright lights for a while. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him do something that will surely blow up his candidacy (after he gets the nomination, I mean; gotta keep the name up in those lights). Maybe he’ll whip it out and wave it at Clinton during a debate.

  173. 173.

    The Other Chuck

    @trollhattan: Dark time will be if Trump gets elected, but of course these craven right-wing lickspittles can’t say that out loud. Whereas from my bench, watching the country put down the GOP like a rabid dog will actually give me some hope.

  174. 174.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Adam L Silverman: I just like the analysis that you provide. I don’t always agree with you, but you are interesting and informative. I wanted to make sure you were being careful. My inner CGO is answered.

  176. 176.

    ? Martin

    @The Dangerman:

    Ya know, Palin makes a lot of sense in a way; she has no political future so she doesn’t lose anything by hopping on a sure loser. At least she gets her name in the bright lights one last time (see Fiorina, Carly).

    He won’t pick her. He thinks she’s an idiot. He’s knows how to read people pretty well. He’ll lie about what he thinks of them, but I think he’s actually very good at sizing people up.

  178. 178.

    MikeBoyScout

    One needs to play the hand one’s dealt.

    Let’s rejoice in the Trump nomination and use its weaknesses to take not only the Senate, but the House.

    Yes.We.Can.

  179. 179.

    starscream

    Trump might not want to be president, but that emotion is outweighed by his ego. He’s not going to give up.

    Fwiw, email from Hillary tonight suggests she’s not underestimating him.

  181. 181.

    NotMax

    @starscream

    Can’t we put that to bed at last? Every rigorous, reputable study (and there have been several) has shown that Nader pulled votes roughly equally from both major parties. And he can claim neither credit nor blame for the infamous butterfly ballot.

  182. 182.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Omnes Omnibus: Thanks and I don’t expect anyone to agree with me on everything. Basically I try to apply the same guidelines I followed when I was on my term appointment at the Army War College. The difference now is I don’t have to provide the disclaimer.

  183. 183.

    Adam L Silverman

    @efgoldman: I understand. There are always stories that could be told. Sometimes they do get told. Whether or not they should be told here is the question.

  184. 184.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @efgoldman: It is completely reasonable. When I worked for the WI GAB, there were conversations here that I stayed out of. And there are conversations held there that I will never talk about here.

  185. 185.

    Adam L Silverman

    @efgoldman: Its not just that, its, as I mentioned in a comment above, the difference between those who are of the All Volunteer Force versus those that predated the All Volunteer Force. Very, very different dynamics.

  186. 186.

    Botsplainer

    @schrodinger’s cat:

    Yes, he is. The cynical, evil, selfish old fuck has a number of millennials believing that Clinton is “evil and corrupt” (to quote my otherwise bright 21 year old who went to a Bernie speech tonight. She has announced her intention to prefer that Trump win and “burn the world” rather than vote for the corrupt status quo with Hillary.

  187. 187.

    The Dangerman

    @? Martin:

    He thinks she’s an idiot.

    No doubt true, but so what from his perspective? It would be a pick that would certainly get some attention and that’s all the Donald is about is getting attention. If he could pick Kate Upton and have her debate in a bikini, he might consider it (she’s what, mid 20’s, so not eligible).

  192. 192.

    Marcion

    @sdhays:
    Donald Trump/Rick Scott 2016

    Tell me you can’t see it. Trump needs Florida and Scott is a fellow supervillain.

  193. 193.

    starscream

    @Botsplainer: just point her to the moment in the debate when St. Bernard was asked to name a single instance of corruption and couldn’t (although answering questions about positions he’s staked out just might not be a strength of his).

  194. 194.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @amk: Please use sentences. Also, look up, for example, Jack Reed.

    ETA: Off to bed. I’ll look in in the morning.

  195. 195.

    Mike J

    @efgoldman: There are plenty of people out there that think that graduating with debt equivalent to what a car costs is the worst thing possible. Probably because they weren’t alive to see mental ill people literally dumped on the streets in the Reagan years. Or they figure that sort of stuff will all happen to somebody else.

  196. 196.

    Adam L Silverman

    @amk: And none of them are retired generals or admirals. A not quite through his first term Senator who separated from the Army as a captain isn’t going to provide anything major. Congressman West – served one term, couldn’t get reelected, also isn’t going to provide anything to the ticket. And given that he’s a very dominant personality, I don’t think that’s what Trump is looking for.

  197. 197.

    Origuy

    Reposting from the last thread:
    I think it’ll be Jim Webb. Retired military, Congress experience, gives the ticket the patina of “bi-partisan”.

  198. 198.

    shortribs

    @The Dangerman:

    Also, I’m still not convinced that, deep down, Trump wants to be President;

    Agree. That’s why I think he’ll choose a mainstream moderate Republican (think Paul Ryan but not him) to make nice with his only path to win (his supporters won’t care, he’s a one man world-fixin’-machine) and since he’s into gimmicks, he’ll announce he’s only going to seek one-term because he’ll be able to fix everything in four years *if Republicans keep the Senate*.

  199. 199.

    Brachiator

    @Adam L Silverman: Apparently Trump gave an interview to the UK Daily Mail where he spoke in favor of Israel expanding settlements. He also spoke favorably of Netanyahu. And then said that he could be fair to both sides and negotiate a deal.

    Interesting throw down of a foreign policy challenge. I don’t think that Trump’s VP pick will be anyone with strong GOP Establishment credentials. Trump doesn’t need that and it would only dilute his outsider image. And I expect to see the GOP very quickly line up behind Trump. And I expect Trump and the GOP to start sending signals to foreign governments that they no longer need to pay attention to anything coming from the Obama Administration.

    Things will start to get ugly very fast.

  200. 200.

    Amir Khalid

    @The Dangerman:
    Oh? The Donald may need to vet everything that’s happened with the Palins since 2008. And there’s been quite a lot of that.

  201. 201.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Brachiator: During the debates when he basically reduced the Israeli-Palestinian dispute to a real estate/property acquisition issue he was actually on to something. At its heart this is a good chunk of it. And I don’t say that to diminish just how damaging its been.

    Its going to be an interesting remainder to the year.

    And on that note I’m off to bed. And doggie bellies!

  202. 202.

    trollhattan

    @efgoldman:
    I referenced a game of chance involving playing cards and chips of a kind I also cannot name. a.k.a. Tuesday at WP.

  203. 203.

    ? Martin

    @The Dangerman:

    No doubt true, but so what from his perspective? It would be a pick that would certainly get some attention and that’s all the Donald is about is getting attention. If he could pick Kate Upton and have her debate in a bikini, he might consider it (she’s what, mid 20’s, so not eligible).

    He thinks she’s an embarrassment when she campaigns. That reflects on him. So, it’s not that he thinks she had bad policy ideas, just that she presents as an idiot, and that won’t stand.

  205. 205.

    sharl

    On this here dead thread, out of curiosity just posting an emoji-rich tweet here, to see how many of those emojis display in the same way they do on twitter. (Source is a Hoosier ex-pat and kinda-sorta Bernie fan.)

    BLESS YOU MY BEAUTIFUL HOOSIERS YOU KNOW WHAT’S WHAT ❤️?❤️????????????

    ETA: Ah, the emojis made it, shape, colors and all! That was only certain after hitting “Post Comment”; before that they were all b&w, and some rendered differently in the draft version as well (e.g., the basketball emojis looked very different)

  206. 206.

    PJ

    @Mike J: Educational debt equivalent to what a car costs? What unicorn-dream world are you living in? As an example, tuition, room, and board for instate students at the University of California costs almost $34K/yr. Times 4, that’s almost $140,000 for undergrad. Hopefully most students will be able to bring that down with financial aid, scholarships, and work-study, but many will only make a small dent in it.

  207. 207.

    Mike J

    @PJ:

    Educational debt equivalent to what a car costs? What unicorn-dream world are you living in?

    Average college loan debt on graduation is $28,950. That’s roughly what a car costs.

  209. 209.

    Goblue72

    @Botsplainer: oh look, the senile Boomer brigade is mad they aren’t the center of attention anymore. Get used to it gramps, you’re yesterday’s news.

    Enjoy the Clinton campaign – it’s your generational swan song. And remakes are never as much fun as the original.

  210. 210.

    Anne Laurie

    @Anya:

    Is this a new thing or did nominees always receive national security briefings

    I remember reading that Eisenhower instituted the policy, because the National Security people had been seriously shocked at how little VP Truman knew about what FDR was up to when Harry suddenly inherited the Oval Office. The narrative was that Ike couldn’t just share the hot secrets with potential replacement JFK, because Nixon & his supporters would have been (understandably) outraged… but he could, For the Good of the Republic, make sure both potential candidates wouldn’t make wild promises during their campaigns — or worse, find out after the fact exactly how dangerous their hoped-for promotion would be.

  212. 212.

    Anne Laurie

    @Origuy:

    I think it’ll be Jim Webb. Retired military, Congress experience, gives the ticket the patina of “bi-partisan”.

    Don’t think it’ll happen, mostly because Webb despises all his fellow early-Boomers who evaded the draft during Vietnam.

    And frankly, that’s why I think Trump wouldn’t ask Webb, either — at the bottom of what passes for Donald’s soul, he’s aware that instead of doing the MANLY thing back then, he let daddy’s money and a medical letter declaring him ‘unfit to serve’ get him off easy.

    There was a subset of early-Boomer men, back in the day, who admitted in print that they resented Al Gore because he actually went to Vietnam — as a reporter, not a grunt, but he didn’t slide out one of the many exits available to him. He sacked up and supported his old man’s career (as well as his own future prospects), but a lot of soft-handed upper-middle-class guys whose youthful bios were full of “of course I *would* have, except” squirming, felt that he’d done it to show them up as slackers.

    Don’t have the google-fu or the energy to dig up cites, but I can remember Very Serious People explaining that Bubba Clinton should’ve known better than to offer him the undercard because Gore’s record would only highlight Bill’s draft-dodger status. (Some of those same aging resentful ex-draft-resisters are among the worst of the BernieBros, still doing their best to punish You Know Who for “getting away with” everything his detractors threw at him.)

    And when commentors here wondered if picking Joe Biden wouldn’t highlight Obama’s “youthful inexperience, I remember arguing that anyone who believed that wouldn’t have voted for Obama under any circumstances — it was an argument from resentment.

  214. 214.

    Bill Arnold

    @eemom:
    OK, so your husband has “predictive value” (as is said in tech). (That’s high praise!)
    Does he have any predictions for the general election that can be shared here?

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