Anne Laurie’s last post should serve as a reminder: the general election is going to be shithouse rodent crazy.
Here’s my question: how much traction will the murder of Vince Foster, the Clinton’s drug-running activities at the Mena airport, and so on, get within the mainstream media?
I have one prediction and I guess it’s an obvious one: Don Lemon will ask someone from the Hillary campaign a direct question about Mena and/or Vince Foster on camera sometime between now and November.
Baud
Contrary to rumors, my father did not kidnap the Lindbergh baby.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Maybe Trump really is a Clinton sleeper cell sent to infiltrate and sabotage down ballot GOP.
Mike J
The Clintons™ smuggled drugs through a black hole, that escaped them and ate an airliner.
LAO
Not taking that bet. Don Lemon will definitely ask ALL of those questions.
kindness
Hillary, have you stopped beating your elderly mother yet?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Chuck Todd and Mark Halperin already feel left out of your prediction. Chuck will ask about cattle futures or the Rose Law firm records. Halperin will ask about Das Clenis
debbie
Anything anti-Clinton will get constant coverage in the media, even the allegedly “respected” outlets.
debbie
@Mike J:
No, those drugs were used to bring OBL back to life! Just ask Sy Hersh!
Joy
I think Lemon will have a seance and ask Vince directly who killed him.
eemom
omg — and Cruz IS, as we now know, Lucifer in the flesh! It’s all coming together. Except the man of wealth and taste part.
LAO
Earlier, in a different thread, I expressed my hope that the fear of Trump presidency may make the MSM less “evenhanded” and “both sides do it”. Nobody agreed. ☹️ But I’d still like to hope it’s possible.
smith
Repeat from a couple threads down: According to Wonkette, Trump has already started his oppo research for the GE. If he will go with Rafael Sr as an assassin, he will surely use Every.Damn.Conspiracists’.Wetdream against the Clintons. And clickbait mongers will eat it up.
Trump will go there. The media will follow — it would be irresponsible not to speculate.
Brachiator
I don’t know. How often was it mentioned during the primary run?
It better come up, dammit. The people have a right to know!!
Maybe we can also get in a fast TV movie.
And I betcha Hillary is still using that air strip to bring in illegal aliens, give them fake ID and then send them to vote.
BTW, the question is not who killed the Kennedys, but who did the Kennedys kill. The purveyors of slime are supposedly working on a Teddy Kennedy Chappaquiddick movie.
No statute of limitations on character assassination.
Origuy
The title of this post gave me a shiver. I was in sixth grade in 1968. Bobby Kennedy flew into the little airport outside Bloomington for the Indiana primary. Since our school was just down the road a few miles, they bused us over to see him land. A month later he was dead. The only time before or since that I saw a Presidential candidate in the flesh.
MomSense
@LAO:
I hope you’re right but it’s more likely the villagers will justify their eventual acquiescence to Trump. He’ll pick an old hand to be VP and the villagers will console themselves that his VP will be a moderating presence.
Doug!
@eemom:
Ha!
Major Major Major Major
What I want to know is, why would a highly-placed GOP ratvcking operative be spilling his secrets in the open to an almost-top-10,000 blog?
p.a.
That shit was a generation ago. Given American attention spans- GW Bush will be due for a “let’s reconsider the assumption he was a failure” reevaluation within the next 2 years- I think anyone trying to push that stuff will be considered an old crank.
Of course, this doesn’t preclude new lies. And Benghaaaazzziiiii…
LAO
The Guardian has already begun posting the returns. Isn’t too early?
debbie
@Origuy:
A couple years after your experience, I was unfortunate enough to see Nixon speak at the Statehouse for the 1970 Congressional elections (a class trip downtown). I was so angry at him about Vietnam, I forgot myself and jumped up and down, giving him the double finger. Unfortunately, I was wearing my school uniform, was instantly identified, and slapped with a detention by my school’s headmaster.
Michael Bersin
It’s a well known fact that during the Clinton Administration Area 51 was forced to use recovered alien technology to build a time machine so that Hillary could personally travel back to August 3, 1961 to catch a flight to Hawaii to file Obama’s fake birth certificate. Being too clever by half, Hillary apparently didn’t notice that the kerning on the fake birth certificate was all wrong, thereby disrupting the space/time continuum enough that Obama inadvertently won the nomination and election in 2008. Did I leave anything out?
Mike J
@LAO: The Times, too. I think northwest IN, near Chi, is still open.
Michael Bersin
@MomSense:
Yes, Dick Cheney it is.
debbie
@LAO:
The precincts in the counties on EDT closed at 6pm, but they should wait for all of them to close.
feebog
I’m wondering how long it will take for the speculation on who Bill Clinton is banging starts. Quite sure that Trump will go there as soon as the first Enquirer story breaks.
Major Major Major Major
@p.a.:
Dude, we’ve talking about Lee Harvey Oswald today.
Tracy Ratcliff
@LAO: Polls close at 6 pm EDT except for the few counties on Central time
Brachiator
@MomSense:
So this is what villager fairy tales must be like.
I would hope that Trump would at least pick a former Miss Universe for his VP.
eclare
@Mike J: Hahaha….
Mnemosyne
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I hope a motherfucker does ask about the Rose Law Firm, because Senator Al Franken has it covered. Turns out the “investigators” neglected to turn over a double-sided sheet of paper that had the “missing” information written on page 2.
JPL
It’s sound like Trump is going to win decisively. I never thought he would last a month and now I fear for our future.
just sayin
Major Major Major Major
@LAO: The Guardian has the best little cartoons.
Origuy
Most of Indiana is on EDT. Lake County near Chicago and a few of the counties at the southwestern tip are on Central.
Lake will be strong for Hillary. The campus counties Monroe, Tippecanoe, and Vigo should be Bernie’s stronghold. Not sure about Marion (Indy), but probably Clinton country. Large AA population plus a growing Latino community.
Iowa Old Lady
I can’t get over how crazy this election has become. Trump has taken things to a new place, and it’s not a good one.
redshirt
Lemon?
How about Sanders?
LAO
@Major Major Major Major: agreed!
To the rest of you, I’m surprised. I always thought, the media was required to wait until all the polls close. Learn something new everyday.
Mike J
@Origuy: Demographic breakdown of Indiana, by county.
http://www.benchmarkpolitics.com/2016/04/indiana-county-benchmark-guide-clinton.html
The Sheriff Endorses Baud 2016
Meanwhile, Trump University goes on trial this fall. How will the Village balance rehashing their Greatest Hits Of The Nineties with breathless coverage of Trumpscandal?
Cacti
Bill Clinton back on the general election stage will give Maureen Dowd a reason to live again.
In case anyone forgot, lady got a Pulitzer for a year’s worth of “political commentary” about Bubba’s wang.
Mike J
@LAO:
As soon as the state reports them, the media can. Blame Indiana.
PsiFighter37
Although it’s been hilarious at times, I still can’t believe that there are enough morons on the other side of the aisle that are going to be sufficient enough to select Trump as the nominee. If there was any sense or righteousness in the world, this would be a repeat of what Chirac did to Le Pen in 2002 (81-19 thrashing in the second round of the French presidential election).
Of course, all the GOP cares about it power – not dignity – so he’s guaranteed at least 40% of the vote going in. Disturbing as hell.
Redshift
@eemom:
We know he’s not the Antichrist, though. The Antichrist is supposed to be very charming.
Rolling Along
#TakeItToTheHouse, three way split the HOR and Ryan’s Choice in 2016!
“ON DEMAND” FUNDING wI’ll make it happen along with a propaganda arm with the likes of Glen Beck, Mark Levin, and National Review! Also Red State!
#TakeItToTheHojse begins tonight! Ted Cruz and his political future is no longer of any concern to us.
Trump? Hillary?
None of the Above!
#TakeItToTheHouse
redshirt
@Iowa Old Lady: If we’re all going to hell, might as well enjoy the ride.
Tilda Swinton's Bald Cap
Nana’s gonna just stand there and laugh at Trump’s ridiculous oppo research, then she’s going to unleash a whuppin’ on his ass so hard he’ll have to stand the rest of his miserable life.
LAO
@Mike J: sure. I don’t care who I blame, as long as I can blame someone. ?
Anoniminous
Trump is crushing Cruz in the absentees and exit polls. Indiana will probably be called for Trump as soon as the polls close.
Cacti
@srv:
And here we see an instance of zero daylight between Trump fascist/BernieBro commentary.
eclare
@Mnemosyne: I wish, not hope, a MF would…
scav
I somehow imagine Trump wanting to organize a televised phone-in reality-contest comparing first spouses and selling the idea to FAUX to raise a little cash. There will, of course, be a swimsuit round.
Mnemosyne
@Brachiator:
How about former Miss America and Fox News anchor Gretchen Carlson?
cmorenc
Let’s thank our lucky stars that a faux-“moderate” like Kasich isn’t the presumptive GOP nominee – someone who could run a seemingly relatively “clean” campaign (from the standpoint of the MSM’s myopic perspective) and leave the dirty character-assassination sliming to outside PACs, with assist from the media itself – see, e.g. Bush the younger in 2000. Had even Rubio (who won his Senate seat as a gung-ho Tea Partier) won the GOP nomination, the MSM would have similarly mostly given him a pass as a “moderate”, despite massive reality to the contrary, while similarly giving an assist to the character-assassinating sliming by outside PACs.
With Trump (or Cruz) the media at least are forced to realize and acknowledge the offensive flaws of Trump and hard-core extremism of Cruz, else see their own credibility drop from merely distrustful to Weekly World News levels of incredulity with most of the public. Even Faux News seems to be stumbling and confused as to how to spin the campaign in a positive way for the GOP, and are having a hard time settling on any effective narrative against Clinton except throwing spaghetti against the wall and hoping something sticks.
Gin & Tonic
@Rolling Along:
Will it learn how to spell?
redshirt
@scav: Think YUUUGER: Why not an Apprentice style reality show to pick Trump’s VP?
Ian
@srv:
You’r confused about the president and his(her) powers. Again. Believe it our not the president can’t just have somebody arrested. It. Just. Does. Not. Work. That. Way.
scav
@redshirt: how else to chose his whole cabinet? I’m sure all inheritance taxes could be abolished on the profits alone! Especially if there are always swimsuit contests for certain posts. (This his visible bodyguards, for example).
peach flavored shampoo
@PsiFighter37: Their side wont be voting for Trump, they’ll be voting purely to adhere to Cleeks Law. Thats all they care about. Whomever the Dems oppose, they must make certain to support.
Anoniminous
@cmorenc:
Most of the Hillary slime-balling is stuff from 1992 and before. For anyone under 35 that’s like bringing up the FDR Packing the Supreme Court Scandal.
Nobody cares.
Mnemosyne
@Gin & Tonic:
C’mon, you know he’s drunk posting.
redshirt
@Anoniminous: BENGHAZI! EMAILS! MONEY LAUNDERING!!!!
Mike in NC
The media will be playing the Greatest Hit(job)s of the 1990s around the clock, because that’s just how they roll, and they’ll be mostly in the tank for reality TV personality Drumpf.
Anoniminous
@Ian:
You mean Obama isn’t the God Emperor of
DuneAmerica?Well.
Damn.
(I wonder if Trump knows that.)
WarMunchkin
@MomSense: Part of the reason I want a four term Democratic double double is that it guarantees neutered career paths for Republican-leaning political professionals. By they time they get the WH back, a lot of their people should be rendered irrelevant to the political process, and the prevailing experts should be Democratic leaning. That could give us a powerful advantage for subsequent decades, and no VP pick will ever be well-known enough to be acceptable, as long as we do right by the country.
Iowa Old Lady
@Anoniminous: I agree they don’t care about the specifics but all that stuff is in the air constantly, and after a while, they believe that with all that smoke, there must be fire. She’s corrupt. She’s criminal. Whatever.
Mandalay
@Brachiator:
Oh please. I hope the film shows in great detail what a gutless evil piece of shit Kennedy was that night:
No amount of “good deeds” in Congress will ever make up for what that he did. Fuck him.
Ian
@Cacti:
I always viewed the committee giving her the award as a way of giving its finger to the entire media class of the year. Basically a -if you’re all doing this shit, we give the award to the worst one-
Baud
Trump called instantly.
Anoniminous
@redshirt:
I don’t mind that stuff but the fact SHE PUTS KETCHUP ON HER CHILI DOGS!!! means I’ll be voting for someone else.
PsiFighter37
Trump projected to win. Anyone think Tailgunner Ted gets pressured to drop out?
debbie
@Rolling Along:
Don’t count on Beck. He’s fasting for
ChristCruz. He may not have the strength.Villago Delenda Est
@srv: Ah, the rich fantasy life of the Drumpfenproletariat.
Baud
Even white evangelicals know to call it a “hoop.”
Anoniminous
@Iowa Old Lady:
Not quite. Quite.
“Buying” propaganda is like buying any other product. There’s a limit to the number of people who will buy it and there’s a Sell-By date. Once you’ve reached the former and passed the latter there’s no additional effect. Plus the GOP’s Might Wurlitzer of Disinformation© only reaches the people they’ve already convinced. We care and know about this because we’re political junkies. Most of the kids are off listening to Prince retrospectives.
shomi
Why don’t you go to Applebees and ask people what they think of these 15 year old Clinton zombie lies and get back to use. Clearly YOU are the one obsessed about those 2 things and are in your own little world on that.
Baud
I’m disappointed that the GOP convention won’t be brokered.
Anoniminous
So much for the #NotTrump movement.
Anoniminous
@Baud:
So am I. I was looking forward to shoot-outs at the Cleveland corral.
Rolling Along
Tonight is not the end.
It is a new beginning!
#TakeItToTheHouse
If Trump doesn’t want us taking that strategy, he needs to do a few things like acting more presidential and starting a real campaign (especially fundraising and giving up the self funding nonsense).
If he won’t play ball we will #TakeItToTheHouse
A Ghost To Most
@Rolling Along:
Why would we ever doubt you? You’ve never been
wrongcorrect before.Cretin. You should use Reptile as your next nym; it suits you.
Baud
Why has God forsaken Cruz?
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@Baud: Well, the Dem convention will be contested.
In other news, the Carolina Panthers plan to contest the results of the Super Bowl.
Villago Delenda Est
@A Ghost To Most: Oh, now I get it. It’s Bill Kristol’s sockpuppet!
Baud
@srv:
She’ll have to get behind the rest of us leaving to country.
Villago Delenda Est
@Baud: Because even He has limits on how much derp He can put up with.
Rolling Along
@A Ghost To Most:
Trump needs a real fund raising and party building organization. He needs professionalism. If he finally admits he needs you fundraiser some cash, hire the pros, and endorse a more orthodox GOP economic policy we might move towards him.
Otherwise #TakeItToTheHouse
Cacti
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
Sanders could contest the nomination at the convention. But after he lost on the first vote, then what?
Mike J
Political sophistication at Reddit: (usernames removed)
Anoniminous
Why the HELL do the RWNJs get all the good drugs?
I remember when it was the other way ’round.
*sniff*whimper*whine*
Mnemosyne
@Rolling Along:
I’m laughing that you think that Ryan will be able to keep his caucus in line and get them to vote for Cruz. Half of them have already endorsed Trump.
Though it would be delicious if it got thrown to the House and the last remaining Republicans with two brain cells to rub together joined up with the Democrats and voted in Hillary. You’d only need 30 turncoat Republicans.
Cacti
@srv:
Is Ed going to make the country whiter?
JPL
@Rolling Along: Don’t worry, the repubs will all start to back him. They might fool themselves into thinking they can control him, but they will back him.
we are fucked…
D58826
Keep hoping we will wake up and Trump will just be the same bad piece of potato that generated Marley’;s ghost. However Erik son of Erik just announce that with Trumps win tonight, Hillary will be the next President.
cokane
dunno if Trump will revive the Vince Foster type conspiracy shit. He’s so unpredictable, really no idea what his attack on Clinton will be. I’m sure we can bet he’ll call her old and/or ugly at some point. But beyond that, it’s a guessing game.
Rolling Along
Trump is establishing a Super PAC! At least a move in the right direction, the pros are coming in! Let’s see where this goes…
Bob In Portland
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/trump_41_clinton_39
Mike in NC
Tweety sez it’s time for Lucifer Cruz and iCarly to disappear in a cloud of smoke.
Baud
@Mike in NC: From the planet.
Cacti
@Bob In Portland:
Well if Rasmussen says so, it must be true.
Villago Delenda Est
@Bob In Portland: Rasmussen. It is to laugh.
Villago Delenda Est
@Mike in NC: No smoke. I want to see the charred bodies where the lightning struck.
D58826
@Mandalay: And FDR had a mistress and Mrs. Wilson ran the government for a year while Woodrow recovered from a stroke. And both Washington and Jefferson sleep with their slave women How far back in history are we planning on going in this election?
PsiFighter37
It’s time for Priorities USA and any liberal super PACs to start dumping their load non-stop on Donald Trump. And we need a huge GOTV drive to get minorities (particularly Latinos) registered.
Now that we’re getting to the general election, it’s going to stop being humorous and start getting furious. There’s no way Trump can be allowed to win.
singfoom
@Bob In Portland: Neoliberal villagers sticking their heads in the sand! Refusing to believe in the areas of your expertise! THE GALL!
NR
@PsiFighter37: Considering the Democrats are going to nominate the only candidate in the country who could possibly lose to him, we’ve got our work cut out for us.
LAO
Anyone check in at redstate? I’m assuming the entire site is on suicide watch.
Mnemosyne
@Bob In Portland:
Republican pollster says what?
Though this part was pleasingly self-delusional:
Anyone who thinks that 25 percent of under-40 voters who “like another candidate for now” (aka Sanders) are going to swing to Trump instead of Hillary needs to put the crack pipe down.
Oh, and 48 percent of white voters going to Trump equals a historic landslide for Hillary, because Romney topped 60 percent of white men and 54 percent of white women in 2012.
Gimlet
We really shouldn’t bother ourselves about rehashing old Clinton scandals until it happens. Besides the election will probably be fought in the battleground states…unless
War is coming! Republicans noted how the Wall Street crisis influenced the 2008 election. A big event that plays to Republicans is on tap for October.
Mike J
@NR: And yet 3 million more people would rather have her than your guy. Sad!
NR
@Mike J: Sad for America when Trump wins, yes.
PsiFighter37
I hope Clinton wins IN tonight. The last thing I want to hear is the idiotic braying of Sanders supporters saying he’s got momentum after netting at best single digits in delegate counts.
Mike J
Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende 24 minutes ago
The Republican Party, at least for now, is now the Front National.
Cacti
@Mike J:
Our only hope to beat Trump is the candidate who’s gotten fewer votes than Trump.
#BernieMath
Baud
@Cacti:
That’s what I’ve been saying.
Gimlet
Voting in both primaries will close at 6pm ET in 80 of Indiana’s 92 counties and at 7pm ET in the remaining counties. (Indiana is bifurcated into two different time zones)
Villago Delenda Est
@Gimlet: How are the Rethugs going to pull off a war when the Commander-in-Chief is a Dem?
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@PsiFighter37:
Sanders spent $2 mill on ads in IN – Hillary – zero. He’s going to run out of money very soon.
Anoniminous
@Mnemosyne:
And a high probability of a Democratic Party take-over of the Senate and House.
Cacti
@Mnemosyne:
As I mentioned in the earlier thread, the Harvard poll found that when other candidates aren’t an option, Clinton leads Trump 61-25 among millennials.
singfoom
@NR:
Keep Berning it up, NR. Nothing wrong with supporting your guy. That said, there’s only 1 poll so far that shows HRC losing to Trump, linked by BiP above.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html shows her beating Trump pretty much every time.
So you might want to consider that.
Cheers
Gimlet
@Baud:
And if the difference were a zillion from the southern tier states it wouldn’t matter. The election is decided by electoral votes not simple voter majority.
Mike J
@singfoom: And Rasmussen is a joke.
Baud
@Gimlet:
I’m talking about myself. I’ve got the fewest votes of them all.
Mnemosyne
@NR:
More people have voted for Clinton than have voted for the three Republicans combined. If you add in Bernie’s voters, the gap between votes cast for Democrats and votes cast for Republicans is even wider.
But if Bernie’s voters want to shoot themselves in the foot and move en masse to vote for Trump, I can’t stop them.
PsiFighter37
@Anoniminous: I think the House is too far gerrymandered for Democrats to win.
The only way it will be in contention is if Trump does something that disqualifies himself in the eyes of the looniest of the wingers out there – and that’s his base. Given he’s done that and gotten away with it multiple times so far, I’m not holding my breath.
@the Conster, la Citoyenne: I’m not on the email list, but I guarantee you that there’s already been a blast sent out asking for more cash. Tad Devine probably sleeps in a mattress filled with Benjamins.
Gimlet
@Villago Delenda Est:
I don’t know. Russia could be the factor. Israel -Iran could be. A terrorist attack. Lots of possibilities, but I would look for an October “surprise”.
Anoniminous
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
Wouldn’t bet on that. Sanders has had notable success in raising funds and his funding pool is nowhere near tapped out or at the limit.
Gimlet
@Baud:
Bummer that Teddy got to Fiorina first.
singfoom
@Mike J: Indeed, Rasmussen is a joke. I wish FiveThirtyEight would start a tracker for the general contest, but I suppose they won’t do that until the nominees have been chosen.
What shocks me about the polling is the (in my opinion) LOW number of people they ask. 1000 Likely Voters seems to be the norm. Extrapolating from 1000 => entire population of likely voters seems bad to me.
I’m sure a statistician will do a driveby comment about how I’m a fucking idiot for the above. LIES DAMN LIES AND STATISTICS I TELL YOU!
Chris
Belated response to OP:
Who the fuck is Vince Foster?
ThresherK
@Bob In Portland: You lost me at Rasmussen. Not even gonna bother with the link.
Trollhattan
@Mnemosyne:
I would instead advise much moar crack pipe time. Partway there, why stop now? Something we can all agree Hodor! can attain.
Mnemosyne
@Gimlet:
Look at both 2008 and 2012. Obama lost the South and still handily won the Electoral College.
Southerners hate to hear this, but they’ve made themselves irrelevant in presidential elections by sticking so strongly with the Republicans.
Trollhattan
@Gimlet:
Trapdoor was Baud’s. Just sayin’.
A Ghost To Most
@singfoom:
Nothing to consider; NR has doing nothing more than whinging at this point.
Gimlet
@Mnemosyne:
Obama is not running.
Marc
@PsiFighter37: The way that gerrymandering works is that you rack up comfortable margins in a bunch of districts and have your opponents rack up huge margins in a few. If there is a true wave the Republicans lose tons and tons of seats – the trick is getting the wave high enough to cross the sea wall.
The Indiana results are an example of why the Clinton team will be working with the Sanders folks: he obviously has a strong constituency in the party, even though it isn’t a majority. I find it remarkable, and gratifying, that someone like him can do so well in a mainstream primary. The left is definitely revitalized, especially among the young.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Anoniminous:
He’s been spending more than any other candidate, and his fundraising is down 50% from last month. The gravy train is pulling into the station.
Mnemosyne
@Gimlet:
I cannot picture a single foreign policy crisis where Trump would look better than Hillary. It would be McCain’s reaction to the financial meltdown times 1,000.
Baud
@Gimlet: But Trump is.
Anoniminous
@PsiFighter37:
Oddly, the fact those CDs are so gerrymandered makes it more likely to switch in an outlier – outside the statistical norms – election.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Mnemosyne:
Obama is determined to hand over a clean operation. Anything that happens between now and then will be handled with Hillary involved or in mind, emphasizing a smooth transition.
Trollhattan
@Mnemosyne:
Trump would be all “I would build the yoogest, classiest golf course and get the Chinese–lovely people, all of them–to pay for it.” And then blow it by having John Daily design it.
Mnemosyne
@Gimlet:
Exactly. A white woman is going to do a lot better in the South than a black man ever could.
Tell me which three states that went to Obama in 2012 are going to go to Trump in 2016. Obama got 332 electoral votes — 270 is the minimum. Tell me what combination of states leads the Democrats to lose 62 electoral votes.
Major Major Major Major
@Mnemosyne: Mexican terrorists, in cahoots with Iran and Goldman Sachs, nuke California. Done deal. #takeittothehorse
Gimlet
@Mnemosyne:
If the Pubbies can get a lot of mileage out of a nothingburger like Beghazi, they could lay it at Obama’s feet and his policy decisions
Wait first to see if there is one and what it is, but that’s what I think the strategy will be. Bring on angry John Bolton, various conservative world leaders and the game is afoot.
Jeffro
@Mnemosyne: yup…truth…
Mike J
@singfoom: 1500 will give you a MOE of 2.5% with a confidence level of 95%.
Anoniminous
@Mnemosyne:
Exactly what I keep banging on about. Nobody can point to an 2012 Obama state and come up with a (cocaine free) scenario that has the slightest chance of flipping to Trump. Not even Virginia.
Gimlet
@Mnemosyne:
Gad, I don’t have the picture clear at this point. To begin with NC, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan all have Republican Governors and S of S election overseers. I don’t think they are the sure thing they once were.
dedc79
I know Sanders has no path to the nomination regardless, but a strong Clinton showing in Indiana sure would’ve been nice on the day Trump effectively locked up the GOP nomination. Instead, expect lots of “Hillary still can’t pull away from Sanders” stories tomorrow.
MomSense
@Gimlet:
So now that Trump is the nominee who will he choose for VP? He could pick someone like Portman who might reassure the business types but he wouldn’t help with foreign policy chops. Waltz and a bunch of others have taken themselves out of the picture by publicly savaging Trump’s foreign policy speech. Bolton has a mustache that rivals Trump’s hair but I’m not sure he is all that reassuring.
Amir Khalid
@Anoniminous:
Then why is he laying off staff in states that have completed their primaries/caucuses? Won’t he need those people to do the GOTV and messaging outreach and whatnot if he’s the nominee?
dedc79
@Anoniminous: My one worry is Voter ID. There are something like a dozen states where new voter ID laws will be effective this election.
Gimlet
@MomSense:
No idea. The news i see doesn’t say much about his inner circle. Hope it’s not Rudy.
debbie
@Gimlet:
This is very true in Ohio. The Secretary of State, Jon Husted, is very busy trying to disenfranchise as many (minority) voters as he can.
He’s got the same kind of boyish, golly gee good looks of a Paul Ryan, and I think he fancies himself the future of the GOP nationally. But deep down, he’s a monster.
Jeffro
@Mnemosyne: that is a really excellent point …
I know it’s a weird election folks but I think HRC’s got this… And remember Obama, Biden, and plenty of other top Dems are going to be campaigning hard for her. And with more enthusiasm than we are going to see on the other side that’s for sure
OGLiberal
@Bob In Portland: One of these kids is not like the other….
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html
Anoniminous
@Amir Khalid:
In short: no. It’s standard procedure and then re-hire during the general election cycle.
Mike J
Sanders road to victory after a narrow IN win, from 538:
Guam Sanders +43
West Virginia Sanders +52
Kentucky Sanders +35
Oregon Sanders +57
Virgin Islands Sanders +43
Puerto Rico Sanders +17
California Sanders +31
Montana Sanders +62
New Jersey Sanders +13
New Mexico Sanders +18
South Dakota Sanders +40
North Dakota Sanders +67
DC tie
Tonight takes 83 delegates off the table and doesn’t appear to close the gap at all.
Gvg
@Anoniminous: not only do the under35’s not remember the old Clinton “scandals”, the over 35’s mostly didn’t care at the time. Bill’s popularity rose during the stupid GOP attacks on him. They made so many baseless attacks on him that I did not believe the real scandal until the semen was Dan identified-yuck. And I am still mad that those prudes made me hear all about it. I am kind of a prude myself but I believe in minding my own business. I really didn’t want the whole wide world hearing about it either. I have known they were lying gossip mangers ever since.
Amir Khalid
RealClearPolitics lists 83 delegates (of whom 9 are supers) in Indiana. Bernie’s current 3.2% lead is good for him to gain, what, one or two pledged delegates?
Mnemosyne
@Gimlet:
I’m looking at Wikipedia. NC went to Romney in 2012, so it’s already red. WI, MI and OH bring you 44 EV, so you’re still 18 short.
debbie
@Amir Khalid:
I think Sanders is focusing more on the platform and positions of the Democrats than on actually running in the general election. He’s gotten enough votes, he really ought to be able to have a say.
Mike J
@Anoniminous: I’ve never seen that.
MomSense
@Gimlet:
Oh dear. Rudy. ((Shudder)))
The Dangerman
Vince Foster? Vince FUCKING Foster? Dude, that’s just the start of it; let your imagination run free, son. The shit that will be hitting the airwaves between now and November will be EPIC and it sure as hell won’t stop with Vince Foster. As evidence, consider today, Trump tried to tie the Elder Cruz to the Kennedy assassination. The KENNEDY ASSASSINATION. Based on the National Enquirer and they based their report on basically zip.
No, Vince Foster is Vanilla; Trump and his crew are going to serve up the rockiest of Rocky Roads. Buckle up.
ETA: Or, what Smith said, better than me, in 13. It’s going to be a wild fucking ride.
Anoniminous
@dedc79:
Exactly why we need active state and local party organizations to make sure our people have what they need to vote.
Amir Khalid
@Mike J:
Ah. That’s the info I was looking for. Thanks.
Zinsky
I hate to say that I predicted it, but I knew with Hillary in the race, it would inevitably drift back to all the bogus “scandals” that Mellon-Scaife, Floyd Brown, Joseph Farah, et al. cooked up in the 1990s. Can Paula Jones be far away? (Or was she paid a large sum of money to STFU and go away?). They are getting the band back together! [Good God, I wish they would hurry up and legalize pot, so I can stay stoned the whole rest of the campaign!]
debbie
@MomSense:
Portman won’t be caught dead with Trump, and I doubt Trump would even want him.
Mnemosyne
@dedc79:
Voter ID is a very rational worry. I think there needs to be a big push to get everyone their ID well ahead of the election.
aimai
I really hope that somehow they can keep poor Monica Lewinsky out of this. That woman has just tried to go out and live her life as a private citizen. It is going to be horribly unfair to her for Trump and his minions to drag her into this.
Davis X. Machina
@Brachiator: Nah. It won’t be an elder-statesman type.
The Trump ticket, whoever the VP pick is, will be strictly a Zap Brannigan/Kif job
Mike J
@Amir Khalid:
I think it’s 83 pledged + 9 super, but I could be wrong.
Gimlet
@Mnemosyne:
You said name three, I shot from the hip and gave you a few. I’d have to carefully size up the remainder that are not deep blue or red.
Anoniminous
@Mike J:
I’ve never seen it. Experiences differ but … what state are you in? My experience is Iowa, California, Washington, and here in NM. In each case the campaign brought in people who went on to the next assignment, hired top talent (or highly connected) locals, kept a few of those, and let everyone else go.
Amir Khalid
@debbie:
As of now, while the primaries are still going on, Bernie’s said he’s still in it to win it.
chopper
@Zinsky:
great, can’t wait for the 90’s to come back. I’ll go looking for second hand flannel this week. ugh.
LAC
@Villago Delenda Est: just when you think srv is the dumbest drunk on the web, bob from Portland comes slurring on by to cut and paste us into a boredom induced coma. Rasmussen? The VHS of polls? ??????
Mike J
@Anoniminous: I worked at the Little Rock office on one campaign and the DC office on two others. Nver in a field office though.
Linnaeus
@aimai:
I’m normally not one for TED talks, but Monica Lewinsky gave a pretty compelling one.
Marc
@Amir Khalid: he’s not going to win. He does have enough support that Clinton will want to bring his enthusiastic voters on board. This will most likely come in the form of some platform items and, mostly, not tacking to the right for the general. Which is why I’m happy that he’s doing OK right now.
Amir Khalid
@Mike J:
I think you’re right. Pledged delegates, then supers in brackets.
Anoniminous
@Gvg:
I got really tired of Clinton and his inability to (1) shut his mouth and (2) keep his pants zipped.
MomSense
@debbie:
I didn’t think Huntsman would endorse either but there is seemingly no indignity too great when it comes to party loyalty.
Gvg
I knew they were going to go crazy with the old Clinton scandals but you know I didn’t realize they were going to also make up crazy stuff about Cruz and trump, plus trump evidently believes stuff like that. Zodiac and jfk…… I guess they haven’t actually just made up stuff on trump yet but he is gullible. We need to say so because that is really discrediting even with a lot of low info voters. Stories that were complete bullshit are being believed by some. Just made up for fun or profit but being treated as real by some. I guess this is how the Clinton fake scandals happened.
Anoniminous
@Mike J:
So you were the Hired Gun coming in to Hicksville to teach us yokels how to run a campaign!
:-)
I always worked field.
smith
@Mnemosyne:
I decided this season to channel a good portion of my political donation money to groups like Vote Riders, figuring if people can get registered, Hillary (and Trump!) will ensure they’re motivated to get out and vote.
Shana
@Anoniminous: No way Virginia goes R this time. The population centers are Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. I don’t know HR very well, but I live in NoVA and have been a D. precinct captain in an R precinct in Fairfax County for the last 10 years. NoVA is FULL of federal workers in various strata as well as well educated government contractors and a s**t-ton of lawyers. This part of the state went Rubio in the primary. They may be Rs but they’re not stupid. They’ll take a long look at both Trump and Clinton, take a deep breath and vote for Hillary.
debbie
@Amir Khalid:
Of course he says that, but despite what some would have you believe, he can do the math. Check out a season of The West Wing and see just how often a politician says one thing to achieve something else.
FEMA Camp Counselor
@LAC: srv is at least fairly clearly putting on an act to get a rise out of people. Bob’s smug insufferable nature and inflated entitlement are entirely genuine.
Mike J
@Amir Khalid: Seven of the nine supers are already on board with Hillary, two uncommitted, so the haul from IN will be Sanders 42, Clinton 48, Uncommitted 2, and that’s with a Bernie win.
debbie
@MomSense:
Huntsman was a real sellout for sure.
Mnemosyne
@Gimlet:
You can size them up, but I can sum it up in three words: Nah. Gah. Happen.
Theft will be attempted, but the way you overcome theft is (1) preparing for it (making sure folks have their IDs, etc) and (2) getting more of our voters to the polls than their voters so theft is impossible. Run up the score.
Baud
@debbie: That shocked me too.
Mike J
@Anoniminous: I just did software, not politics.
aimai
I just watched another inspirational Hillary video (I know I know pathetic!) and after crying all the way through it I predict that they have found the way to neutralize the various attacks on her from the 90’s. I think that they will get out waaaay in front of them by having her do a series of interviews where she tackles them head on, as well as publication of parody attacks (or even just the front page of National Enquirer style images) such as “Hillary Clinton eats live baby” etc…
The thing is she doesn’t have to persuade any of Trumps voters to choose her. She just has to turn out Democratic voters. And they are motivated to listen to her and believe her when she says “these were always lies. The republicans lie about me, and they lied about Obama and they will always lie about everything.” So I think that Trump is going to dig everything up but I don’t think its going to matter much because the people who want to vote for the Democrat are going to see these attacks as just all the more reason to vote for her to push back against the Republicans and the Koch brothers adn the vast right wing conspiracy.
Mnemosyne
@smith:
Yes! That’s the org I was thinking of. Thanks for reminding me to set some extra $$$ aside for them.
Anoniminous
@Shana:
That was my assessment, nice to get confirmation.
sunny raines
one of the advantages of Clinton over Sanders is that Hillary has the ‘not that again’, ‘are you serious’, ‘been there, done that’ responses – all true and believable. Bernie would not have had that ability and could easily have gotten bottled up chasing his tail, damping out right wing inanities carried and promulgated by the corporate media.
Anoniminous
Guardian reporting:
Amir Khalid
@Mike J:
Ouch.
Gimlet
@Mnemosyne:
If voters have the widespread dislike of Hillary that polls show and can elect obviously dysfunctional politicians running in places like Texas, then Trump’s a viable candidate just like Dubya was. It is not done by reason or merit.
Baud
@Anoniminous: Whoa.
Mnemosyne
@aimai:
If Hillary can keep the Obama coalition together (and I think she can) and add a few white women who voted R last time, it’s gonna be a bloodbath.
Mike J
@Amir Khalid: It does make more sense to just call it S 42, C 41. Silly to count supers at all since they will vote for whoever has the most pledged.
Anoniminous
@Mike J:
My profession for 30 years. JOB SECURITY!!!!
I do office management, logistics, staffing, and other back office stuff.
Mike J
Marc
@Mike J: I continue to believe that the supers will linecup behind the pledged delegate winner, like in all of the previous cycles. This still means Clinton of course, barring some equivalent of a meteor strike in the next month.
burnspbesq
@Mike J:
At this point, all Sanders victories are Pyrrhic.
Mnemosyne
@Gimlet:
I honestly think the “widespread Hillary hate” is due to a contentious primary election, not a genuine deep-seated hatred that Trump will be able to exploit. As many others have pointed out, she tops the lists of most admired women year after year … until she runs for office.
Add in the fact that white women voters despise Trump, and I honestly don’t see how he wins.
The Sheriff Endorses Baud 2016
@Gimlet: Neither was Reagan in 1988.
aimai
@Gimlet: Trumps viable–no one says he isn’t. But he gets a sliver of the same voters that the Republicans always get. He has a floor below which he won’t fall, but I think there is also an obvious ceiling over which he won’t rise.
eclare
@Mnemosyne: Hey, we are still here, and we vote. Don’t take the Sanders attitude.
ETA: dividing voters is never a good idea
LAO
Twitter is reporting, Cruz is out of the race.
aimai
@Mnemosyne: MMMM…bloodbath. That sounds wonderful.
JPL
@Mnemosyne: I donated to Obama and I received one invite for Hillary when she was in town. It was actually tempting also since it was only 500.00 to 2100. Bad timing though.
debbie
Listening to Fiorina introduce Cruz is like listening to the creepy aunt who won’t stop licking her finger to scrub the smudges on your face while telling you to stand up straight and say thank you.
Mike J
Before today:
Clinton leads Sanders in pledged delegates by 289, 364 short of majority
1016 delegates left
After today:
Clinton leads Sanders in pledged delegates by 288, 323 short of majority
933 delegates left
rikyrah
Look at those states with a sizable Latino population. Trump has a single digit approval rating will Latinos. Show me how he makes that up with White voters.
And it is not a benign dislike of Trump -they despise him.
debbie
@Mnemosyne:
Are you talking about Sanders’s supporters or conservatives?
Gimlet
@rikyrah:
They stay home and Hilary doesn’t get them either.
Mnemosyne
@eclare:
Sorry, I meant that now that Republicans feel they can count on the Southern states voting for them no matter what, both parties tend to ignore them.
If you want to try and turn your state blue this year, we’ll be happy to help. The more, the merrier!
Anoniminous
@rikyrah:
Latinos are going crazy registering to vote and becoming citizens so they can vote … both so they can vote against Trump. The idiot has managed to open the door to losing Arizona and Texas and shut the door to winning Florida.
Anoniminous
Cruz is dropping out!?!
The Sheriff Endorses Baud 2016
@Gimlet: “Hey Pablo, you going to go vote for Hillary Clinton today?’
“No, she just doesn’t inspire me and have you heard about all those scandals? I am just going to stay home and let the guy who called us rapists and murderers win. Sure, we’ll be treated as fourth-class citizens and probably deported even with our citizenship papers, but, y’know, I gotta feel inspired.”
Mnemosyne
@debbie:
I think Sanders supporters are going to swing to Hillary by a big margin once it’s all settled. We may be having a family squabble right now, but it’ll get sorted out well before November.
I dare to dream that a few conservatives are going to hold their noses and cross over to vote for Hillary, especially women. Even our most annoying troll (UNLIMITED CORPORATE CASH!) has said he’d rather vote for Hillary than Trump.
The Sheriff Endorses Baud 2016
@Anoniminous: The writing was on the hyuuuuuuuge and classy wall. Now to see if Kasich calls it quits tonight as well.
debbie
@Anoniminous:
Wow, YES!
eclare
@Mnemosyne: I try and hope every chance I get, I’m not an “only the prez” voter…unfortunately don’t see that happening. Holy…Cruz dropping out!
redshirt
@LAO: Jesus wept.
Gimlet
@The Sheriff Endorses Baud 2016:
Did you factor in apathy, voter suppression with out of the way polling places, voter ID challenges and outright intimidation?
Mnemosyne
@Anoniminous:
It’s the Prop 187 mistake that California Republicans made — if you piss Latinos off, they will decide to participate after all. And they’ll keep doing it until there’s only a rump of your party left.
debbie
@Mnemosyne:
I think you’re right about Bernie’s supporters, but I sadly fear you overestimate conservative women.
I Am Not Jon Snow
Being reported that Ted Cruz to suspend his campaign. It’s over (at least on the GOP side).
FEMA Camp Counselor
@Anoniminous:
I admit, that’s a pretty good bit of wordplay.
hueyplong
Much as I wanted Cruz to stay in and make sure the GOP sought a second amendment solution to its problems in Cleveland, by the time that a-hole got to the part about how he’s quitting, I was really happy to have him do so. Let Cruz talk for 5 more minutes and I’d take almost any human-like figure over him.
redshirt
@Gimlet: Don’t forget about bad weather. It might rain all day, everywhere.
The Sheriff Endorses Baud 2016
@Gimlet: No, because I am confident in my candidate and my party and my nation.
She’s going to win. She’s going to win big. And you’ll get eight more years of being oh so very concerned, which is all you want in the first place.
Omnes Omnibus
@Gimlet: Yep, it’s hopeless. Let’s all just give up now.
LAO
@redshirt: lol. ?
Gimlet
@Omnes Omnibus:
Putting words in my mouth.
I don’t know the outcome, I’m just trying to temper the optimism. That’s why they hold the election. Lots of things change between now and then. Don’t want us to bet the ranch on Romney winning over Obama the way the Republicans did.
redshirt
@LAO: Once again, America is not ready for a true Christian Conservative.
Pray Lord we never are!
Mnemosyne
@debbie:
We only need a couple of percentage points our way to make the Donald very, very sad. I’m not counting on it, but it would be the difference between an Obama-style landslide and a massacre.
I’m hoping for the massacre. :-)
Mnemosyne
@Gimlet:
I’m planning to work my ass off to get the result I want. Are you?
If not, STFU and get out of my way. We have an election to win.
M. Bouffant
“Kennedies”? Really? Not even spell check would do that.
Kathleen
@debbie: This. A Thousand Times This.
Kathleen
@Origuy: I saw him at my school, University of Portland, when he was running in the Oregon primary. A group of students pleaded with him to make an unscheduled stop at the school and he came. Being a McCarthy supporter (yeah, I know but I had been living in Minnesota) I sat on my hands as the students in the cafeteria cheered. Hey, I was a stupid kid.
NR
@Mnemosyne: From 538:
Absolutely nothing to worry about here, though. Nope. Not at all.
Kathleen
@p.a.: “And Benghaaaazzziiiii”
This will be Chuckles The Todd’s beat.
Kathleen
@Baud: Not sure God “sakened” him in the first place.
Mike J
@NR: The only thing Sanders did was take 83 delegates off the board. Check #222.
Mnemosyne
@NR:
As far as beating Trump? Fuck, no. Even if you claim you’re totally going to diss Hillary and vote for Trump instead, I wouldn’t believe you, because even our long-term conservative troll UNLIMITED CORPORATE CASH! can’t bring himself to claim that.
If you really think that the majority of Bernie’s voters are going to do a 180 and vote for Trump, then fuck them and fuck you.
NR
@Mnemosyne: I’ve said I’m voting for Hillary.
But you are vastly underestimating how weak a candidate Hillary is. I think there’s a good chance the Republican party will be more united than the Democratic party by the end of the summer.
Elie
@NR:
Do the math right — two different denominators. The Republican denominator is smaller (read: fewer republicans). Easier to get bigger percentages… You know that, right? Your numbers are not comparable but nice try.
Mnemosyne
@NR:
Wevs, dude. You can cower at home while the rest of us do the work to fucking crush Trump in November. I don’t have time anymore to explain to you how many different ways you’re wrong.
Elie
@NR:
I don’t believe you for a minute. Nice try for a sophisticated counter though — “I am voting for Hillary But….” Awww I wish we could see the look on your little face when she humiliates your guy… Nothing worse than your mama spankin you in front of your friends. How long do you think it will take for him to get over it?
Mnemosyne
@Elie:
As has been documented multiple places, more people have voted for Hillary in this primary season than have voted for Trump, Cruz and Rubio combined. Add in the Bernie voters, and the numbers are even more overwhelming.
I was done listening to cowardly white dudes in 2012.
NR
@Mnemosyne:
I have no idea where you’re getting this. Trump+Cruz+Rubio is about 20 million votes. Hillary has 12 million. She’s just barely ahead of Trump. And now that the Republican race is basically over, he might very well pass her before the primaries end.
NR
@Elie:
Shrug.
That’s your problem, not mine.
Heliopause
None. There’s no reason to bother with this stuff because there is an active investigation into the e-mail server and they can insinuate anything they want from that one (unless something concrete comes out, in which case they can go with that). You’re a couple decades behind the times, Doug.
Mnemosyne
@NR:
Here’s a fun map for you to play with. Preview of a few surprises:
Hillary got almost 100K more votes than Trump in Louisiana.
She got more votes than he did in Georgia.
She got more votes than he did in South Carolina.
Now, am I expecting Hillary to win those states? Almost certainly not. But to claim that Trump is overwhelmingly popular and will sweep the election even in states Obama won because Reasons is patently stupid.
But, again, if you want to cower in the corner instead of doing the work necessary to defeat Trump, be my guest.
NR
@Mnemosyne: Are you at least going to admit you were wrong about Hillary getting more votes than Trump, Cruz, and Rubio combined?
Librarian
.
LAC
@NR: who gives a fuck about Cruz and Rubio? Maybe you should ask what president Romney thinks about that shit. Oh wait….