First, via valued commenter Brachiator, here’s a photo and link to an article from Smithsonian about women leaving “I Voted” stickers on Susan B. Anthony’s gravestone:
Next, via valued commenter The Thin Black Duke, an excerpt from a pundit round-up at dKos that may at least partially explain the lack of visible excitement around Hillary Clinton’s candidacy while she nevertheless notched a double-digit win in California and won the Democratic Party primary:
I personally believe there’s a correlation between her [Clinton’s] largely female volunteer base (as of now), her unexpected voter turnout, and the fear so many women have of expressing themselves online, or on the street, or in the board room.
A lot of people on social media have wondered where all of Hillary’s votes came from, because there was no signage, no outpouring of love on Facebook. It shouldn’t surprise us that when we fail to listen to women’s voices well in the public sphere, we mis-calculate what women are actually thinking and doing in private. We didn’t know where Hillary’s votes were coming from because they didn’t feel it was safe for them to tell us in the first place.
Now, not all women like Hillary Clinton, of course, and some for perfectly good reasons. Then there are folks of both sexes who believe Clinton is a warmongering Wall Street strumpet. Others dread the prospect of a replay of Clintonian drama, as if a Hillary Clinton administration would be like being forced to re-watch Joan Collins vs. Linda Evans spats on “Dynasty” for four to eight years.
And others — including women — see the value in removing the two-and-a-quarter-plus centuries old “NO GIRLS ALLOWED” sign on the U.S. presidency but don’t think it’s that big a deal — it’ll happen eventually, right?
Or they just can’t get excited about this particular woman, who has been on our TVs since “Achy Breaky Heart” was a radio hit and doing the Macarena was a thing. I get all that, I really do.
But it’s a mistake to assume millions of us don’t have a special joy in our hearts and enthusiasm in our souls just because we aren’t sporting lawn signs and bumper stickers. Some of us just don’t want our windshields bashed in.
The other day my husband and I were out in the country looking at property, and we went down a steep dirt road (yes, we have hills in Florida in a few places, albeit smallish ones) to find an address. A couple of pickups were parked at a neighboring house, and for a second, I was surprised to see a Hillary sticker on one, but upon closer inspection, I found that it said “FOR PRISON” instead of “FOR PRESIDENT.” Another sticker said, “Life’s a Bitch. Don’t Vote for One.” [Zillow note: neighbors are assholes!]
Expressing an opinion — particularly a political one — while visibly female is not without risks. In my eight year or so blogging career, I’ve been doxxed, called foul names, shamed as a bad mother, had it suggested to me that I’m a lazy bitch who is a parasite on my husband, etc.
I’m not whining about it; I’ve raised a teenager, so I don’t scare easily, and if my self esteem depended on retaining the good opinion of every random asshole I encounter online, I’d find another hobby.
But my point is, this shit is real. And so is the excitement many of us feel about electing the first woman president, even if you don’t see it all over our Facebook feeds. I have a feeling that on November 9th, Susan B. Anthony’s grave will be covered in stickers.
Berial
It really sucks, that being on the right side of history, seems to go hand in hand, with being on the wrong side of a punch.
Elizabelle
WTG Betty, and Hillary, and the late S.B. Anthony.
I’m excited. It’s more wonderful to be powerful and hopeful than angry. We got that going for us.
NASJW
Yes, get ready for plenty of Clinton drama–starting with Trump’s anti-Clinton speech on Monday. He’s going to accuse Hillary of using the State Dept as her “personal hedge fund”, and especially hit her on shady connections to the Saudis and the Chinese (he could even connect the latter to the Chinagate fundraising scandal of the 1990s).
Elizabelle
@Berial: We’re stilettos, not punches.
Got to go. Catch you guys later.
hovercraft
Thi is another take on the women who brought us here.
While women are not always as vocal we are in many ways more powerful, we just go behind that curtain and vote.
JPL
Betty, Thank you for another excellent post.
Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class
@NASJW:
LULZ.
So now we’re back to Chinagate? That’s a faux “scandal” that’s actually old enough not only to vote, but to drink, as well.
joel hanes
This is why Clinton will win big in November.
Women WILL come out to vote for her, especially over the vile Donald.
There’s a hunger long denied and seldom voiced.
MomSense
@Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class:
All I want to know is what I have to do to get a night in the Lincoln bedroom.
karen marie
Thank you, Betty, for writing this. For many besides myself, many, if not all of the things you cite are applicable. I could write a long essay about the evolution of my now strong support for Clinton but my dog is squeezing her buttocks, so I will leave it at this: I am sick to death with men thinking they can get away with shit, and women rolling over to avoid conflict. No more.
schrodinger's cat
R-troll is back, now with a new handle.
schrodinger's cat
If not for WW I how long would have women’s suffrage taken?
hedgehog mobile
Thank you, Betty.
Kay (not the front-pager)
A lot of women were more moved than they expected at her clinching the nomination on Tue. Ana Navarro, a Republican spokesperson/pundit/talking head was one.
My husband’s client base is primarily rich, conservative, and mostly older women. He has been telling me for a year that Clinton has a lot of unspoken supporters among those women. They don’t mention it when their husbands or middle-aged sons are around, but they make it clear to him. I guess it’s sort of a reverse Bradley effect.
PS, I’m forthrightly thrilled.
Punchy
Related, I have some “quarters” covered in Sue Tony’s visage.
Major Major Major Major
The only people I know who post pro-Hillary stuff on Facebook (and we’re all fairly thoroughly harassed) are either large men or, the social media director for Toastmasters in the mountain west, whose sharp tongue you would not like to meet in a dark alley. I get messages from people thanking me for posting because they’re too annoyed, scared, or concerned about their careers (way to go, ‘progressive’ Bay Area) to be public about their support for her.
NonyNony
@NASJW: Oh man I hope so! Clinton has been fighting against meaningless scandals and conspiracies since Bill Clinton started running for governor of Arkansas. If there’s one thing she knows how to do it’s stand up to idiots hurling slurs at her about meaningless scandals. I wonder if Trump thinks her skin is as thin as his is?
I wonder if he’ll bring up the Mena Airport, Vince Foster, and Clinton’s supposed lesbian lover. The right wing is finally getting what they always wanted – a candidate who would take their conspiracy theories about the Clintons seriously instead of ignoring them!
Angela
Thank you, yes. Sharing.
NASJW
@Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class:
And that means Millennials aren’t aware of it and will be introduced to the ’90s scandals for the first time.
trollhattan
@NASJW:
Donny’s ability to sway opinions with his word salads and bellowed taco bowls is about nil. Nobody cares what he says at this point, outside his hyena pack.
eric
I dont think that is a gender issue, though there may be a gender component. I think that most people dont want to have to explain that they are going to vote for Hillary to people that will never, ever get it because they “believe in their guts” that the Clintons are [insert derogatory term here]. Plus, people dont want to deal with the virulence that they see in their FB feeds from supporters of other candidates of all stripes.
NASJW
@NonyNony:
He’s definetley going to bring up Whitewater. Again, Millennials haven’t heard of these scandals before. It’s new to them!
greennotGreen
Is Hillary my dream candidate? No, but my dream candidate wouldn’t win early 21st century America. But on Tuesday I will attend my first ever County Democratic Party meeting, and I will work my butt off to help turn this red(neck, as in rural) county blue this November. And I will bite my tongue the entire time to keep from saying to some people, “You think this country is screwed up so you want to put another white guy in the Oval Office! How about you give a woman a chance?”
What is the definition of insanity, again?
trollhattan
@NASJW:
Have you been napping? (p.s. We know who you are.)
carame
And not to offend anyone’s special feelings, but she’s been running against someone who turned “mansplaining” and “whitesplaining” from a meme into a campaign strategy. The excitement hasn’t been non-existent, but it has been largely dismissed as coming from people who don’t matter so eventually we started keeping it to ourselves and our fellow non-entities.
Major Major Major Major
@MomSense:
Ooh, no, you really don’t…
Redshift
I know I haven’t been as vocal during this primary as I have been during many others, because I was confident from the start that Hillary was going to win, and I just didn’t want to deal with arguments that (in the long run) wouldn’t matter. I can’t imagine how much stronger that impulse would have been if I was female.
However, I also think this is a tell:
I think there are a lot of people, particularly younger people, who saw a lot of people on social media being passionate for Bernie, and (understandably) don’t know a lot about how election campaigns actually work. That, combined with the fact that Obama could draw a capacity crowd anywhere he went in 2008 and 2012 and he won big, made it easier for people to believe that if you have big rallies and you don’t win, someone must be cheating. The big rallies were awesome and inspiring (just as Bernie’s are), but organizing and GOTV are what won those elections. No one should ever forget that.
MikeBoyScout
1) Fear is real.
2) There’s observably more reason to fear physical and emotional abuse this election than any I remember since 1968.
Anecdotally I’ve the privilege & pleasure to be in western PA to attend the Pens game tonight.
Was at the Denny’s in Cranberry in the wee hours (no direct flights) and a 27 year old patron was retelling how he’d been physically threatened by “skin heads” earlier in the evening because he had something nice to say about a black man.
Pennsyltucky and all but
The whackos are being incited. Tread carefully and not alone
Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class
@NonyNony:
I’m eager to see the deathcount stuff again.
Imagine all the breathless links to 1996 Geocities pages, bad fonts, red letters and flashing words. Its proof, I say, proof that milennials will be jonesing for, now that Bernie’s primed them for it.
LULZ
Mike R
@NonyNony: D. Trump does seem to take gossip very serious. He reminds me of some of the worst butt-heads from high school.
Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class
@NASJW:
And they’ll be laughing their asses off about it all.
gwangung
@Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class:
That’s gonna seal the deal with Asian Americans. That was straight up racist fear mongering by Republicans (which was never recognized as such)
CONGRATULATIONS!
My wife’s a teacher and gets threats – sometimes, yes, death threats, every year. Particularly around this time of year as the school year winds down. What little online presence her job requires is locked down HARD. Not that this stops the determined ones, just the amateurs.
We don’t put up yard signs, we don’t call attention to ourselves. Women who dare to express an opinion or work in public, as it turns out, have a lot to be justifiably scared of.
chopper
@NASJW:
hey, this guy’s back again. what fun.
Punchy
@NASJW: I’m sure that they’ll care about some “scandal” from 20 years ago. Uh huh. Have you met these people?
And yes, I’m feeding the troll. I apologize.
Chyron HR
@trollhattan:
@chopper:
You’re supposed to pretend he’s a different person, guys. Stop being mean. :^(
tinare
This is totally me. I will not put up a sign or a sticker because I am a single woman living and driving alone and I do not want to deal with harrassment. However, the minute I turned 18 I registered to vote. I have missed maybe one primary back when I was in college and forgot to get an absentee ballot on time. I am a faithful primary and mid-term year elector. I donate in order to support the candidates I believe in, because I have a bit of social anxiety, so phone-banking and door-knocking are not in my skill set. I have very strong opinions, but I do keep them to myself frequently. Especially around my wingnut relatives. They’re crazy, and I need to keep the peace.
Immanentize
@Kay (not the front-pager): This was my experience in Texas — a lot of older women have a huge amount of wealth in part because they outlived their jerky husbands…. These women are very conservative in the church, family and checkbook sense — but they are not the flippin’ idiot racist misogynists that the conservative men can be. The women I had the pleasure of getting to know were very strong in their opinions but very accepting of almost everyone around them. More “good fences make good neighbors” types than the “I want to possess your womb” sort. Although there were some of those too, but those women were not generally as wealthy or connected. For example, I have no doubt that Kay Bailey Hutchinson will vote for Hillary, regardless what she tells the press (although no one, it seems, has asked).
Now, I also got to know some exceptional liberals like Sissy Farenthold and Ann Richards as well. Texas is an odd place.
Miss Bianca
I actually have both those articles in my queue to read right now, Betty C.
My actual meat-space name presents as male. On most other public sites I use it, or some variation of it, because I learned, to my pain if not my surprise, that I was less likely to be harrassed for my opinions – or, more likely to have my opinions taken seriously and at face value – if others thought I was male.
I lurked here for a long, long time to get the tenor of the place before commenting – and choosing a nym that presented female. And regardless of presentation I have gone off FB almost entirely because I didn’t want to get in political “debates” that seemed to expose the unexamined sexism – and reflexive anti-Clintonism – of people I know and love.
trollhattan
@schrodinger’s cat:
Yup. Always…okay, occasionally interesting to see what’s being pushed on the a.m. conference call. Flopsweat anybody?
“Let’s party like it’s 1992.”
NonyNony
@trollhattan: I didn’t realize who they or I wouldn’t have responded to them. I figured they were someone rightfully mocking the idea that Trump would think bringing up these “scandals” would have anyone say anything other that “WTF is this crazy person going on about”? Hell in the 90s that was the reaction of most of the population at the time – “WTF are these crazy people going on about”?
It’s hilarious! I’ve got my fingers crossed that he’ll go full-on David Icke and link the Clintons to the Reptoid Conspiracy.
Major Major Major Major
@Chyron HR: Yeah, it obviously went to the trouble of changing IP addresses and everything! The least you could do is give it the time of day.
Hoodie
I suspect this analysis is pretty accurate. I didn’t start out as a big fan, but watching the crap Hillary has to put up with reminds me of my mom and the 40 years of crap she took from prima donna male surgeons who weren’t half as smart or disciplined as her but had the luck of being men who grew up in an era when smart women from working class backgrounds were directed to nursing school and not medical school. I can imagine a lot of women like that are pulling the lever for HRC and will tear up when she takes the oath of office.
Cacti
No less a liberal stalwart than Sen. Barbara Boxer was called “b**ch” and “c**t” by male supporters of the purportedly progressive campaign.
Then the following day, a spokes-bro goes on TV to tell her she “had no right to feel threatened”.
Yeah, shit is definitely real, and even powerful women aren’t immune.
trollhattan
@Chyron HR:
Aw maaannnn. No fair!
trollhattan
@Cacti:
A watershed moment for me. Unforgivable.
Miss Bianca
@greennotGreen: Good for you! : )
Fair Economist
I am really stoked about Hillary, and the more I see and read the more stoked I get. There’s nobody who works harder, nobody who knows policy better, and her issues page is a joy to read, especially when you consider it’s written by/for somebody who can get it done. But the speech on Tuesday might be the topper. She was warm, welcoming, grateful, and inspiring. Not much of a policy wonk in that speech, but I’ve read her issues page and I know it’s still upstairs.
We are really lucky to have her.
Major Major Major Major
@Hoodie: My mom has a New Yorker cartoon in her office. It’s some men in a boardroom with one woman, and one of the guys is saying “What a fantastic idea, Ms. soandso. Perhaps a man would like to suggest it?”
pseudonymous in nc
Ah, Right to Shite is going to be changing nyms and getting blocked from now till November.
If El Trumpador wants to run with the “personal enrichment” line — pro-jec-tion there — then please proceed, asshole. Seriously, if Hillary’s in cahoots with all the Wall Street bankers and financiers — the ones who won’t touch Drumpf with a shitty stick any more — then surely they’ve already dished the dirt on his dodgy finances?
trollhattan
@NonyNony:
In your defense, the posts were scrubbed of the usual Random CAPITALIZATION and emphasis.
ETA as if by magic.
hovercraft
At no point during the primary did I feel that electing a woman was the most important part of my support for Hillary. But as I watched her come out Tuesday night I felt the same way I felt 8 years ago when the Obama family came out onto that stage in Grant Park. It meant something to see a woman out there on that stage as our nominee. And more and more I find myself resenting the fact that I’m supposed to qualify my support by saying she is not the perfect candidate. Did we have to justify our support for any of the men we have supported for all of our voting lives. I have never voted for a perfect candidate because there is no such thing. I am proud to have voted for Hillary and I don’t have to justify it to anyone.
Matt McIrvin
@Chyron HR: It’s a brilliant disguise, using a nym that doesn’t begin with R.
MattF
@NASJW: Oops. Dropped the kimono.
ETA: And you deleted the bold font too late. I saw it.
Hugely
Men will vote for her too – I actually think a good portion of NE Repub types of males might do so
I dunno im supposed to be a trump voter (read: pasty white MAM) – im with her not because she is a she but because she is smart, competent, experienced and reflects my values. This isnt exciting stuff IMO. Those aforementioned reasons are also why I voted for Obama – any excitement I feel towards him is cause he is so smart – there was an interview he gave to Matt Lauer in the first 2 or 3 months in 1st term where he didnt give frat boy fuck up answers but very genuine impromptu answers to decent questions. I almost cried.
To me the fact that he is AA and she has XX chromosomes are just nice bonuses and not in historic sense.
Hillary will help a larger portion of US pop and and our position in world and those republican fucks should not be put near the levers of power. I cant get excited about that – so maybe theres the enthusiasm gap…
anyway theres some personal anecdotes that might explain the gap
smith
Women are silenced not only by threats of violence but also by public shaming. Hillary has been subject to a massive campaign of public shaming writ large for more than 25 years. Yet she soldiers on, putting herself out there and getting things done. She’s more than ready for the VRWC to fire up the old scandal machine, and in doing so she will provide a powerful role model for women and girls everywhere. Is it too much to hope that four to eight years of Mama in charge will actually have an impact on the current social intimidation that keeps women silent?
louc
Remember, even in Mississippi, a referendum on fetal personhood was defeated. And it probably was defeated by the same women who keep their mouths shut around vociferous pro-life jawing and who probably lied to pollsters about their positions (didn’t want their spouses/boyfriends to know their views?). Or for once carved out time to get to the voting booth. It would be really interesting to see the gender breakdown on that ballot.
I like to think the same kind of quiet revolt is going on for Hillary.
pseudonymous in nc
Tangentially, this is why I’m not an unequivocal supporter of vote-by-mail. There are lots of women who can vote for Hillary in the privacy of the ballot booth but might not be able to do so if they were casting their ballots at home.
Immanentize
I wonder if the huge problems Republicans have had with child abuse, serial divorce, end of life intrusions, sexual assault scandals (Hastert, Gingrich and Trump, Bush, Ken Starr and Trump and almost all the GOP respectively) will put a whole new twist on the narratives of the 90’s. Not for the media, but for the campaigns and the voters? It seems like everyone of those topics is a very ripe opportunity to remind voters of who Trump — and the rest of the nasty GOP — really is.
Cacti
@smith:
The GOP despised her for being the first career woman to occupy the role of First Lady.
She was shamed for being a successful professional, FFS.
hovercraft
@trollhattan:
You spoke too soon, it’s baaack in all it’s repetitive glory.
Fair Economist
I love the idea that the man who wants to give the bomb to the country of the 9/11 attackers is planning to “hit” Hillary on her supposed Saudi connections.
hovercraft
@MattF:
Hey I saw that too.
Elie
Amen! ( I am late to the thread but wholeheartedly agree with your sentiments).
Went to a “meet and greet” meeting last night for new Precinct Coordinators in Whatcom County WA. There is still a roil from the unhappy Bernie supporters. The first caucus way back went to Bernie (even though the later Primary reversed that, supporting your thesis that Hillary supporters keep it to themselves more). There was a gaggle of us Hillary supporters who whispered together like conspirators —. Yes, there are huge undercurrents of misogyny woven into this election. I think we will learn to stand up to it with stronger and stronger determination — and pride as time goes on……
Miss Bianca
@hovercraft: You know what was kind of sad, tho’? Clicking on to that link, reading the article, and then seeing a big red blinky box on the left saying “LIVE – Bernie Sanders meets with Obama at the White House!”
Jeezus chicken-fried Christ, as Ms Cracker might say – can’t we just get AWAY from this guy stepping on HRC?
NonyNony
And Betty, I think you’re 100% correct. I know a lot of women – young and old – who are very excited about Clinton’s candidacy but have not been vocal about it. One kind of obnoxious example is a young college student I know who has been a “secret” Clinton supporter and who was torn up because she felt like she couldn’t tell her Sanders-supporting boyfriend that she was going to vote for Clinton because it would just cause a fight. That was one of my “aha!” moments when I realized that Clinton’s support was a lot deeper than it might seem.
I think this goes to explaining why she did so well in primaries – open and closed – and not so well in caucuses. In a caucus you have to get in other people’s faces and be very public about your support. You have to open yourself up to a lot of potential abuse. In a primary you just vote and nobody knows who you voted for. It makes it a lot easier to participate if you’re a person who tries to avoid conflict rather than engage in it.
MomSense
@Major Major Major Major:
Heh.
Pretty soon we are going to have to figure out what to call Bill as FLOTUS won’t do. My kids are hoping for SCROTUS.
trollhattan
@pseudonymous in nc:
I find the mail ballot in balance is wonderful inoculation against Rovian dirty tricks on election eve and the proverbial October Surprises. It’s also why the AP had no impact on the Tuesday California ballot.
Curious how all-mail states fare.
Major Major Major Major
Ohhh, it’s short for Not A Social Justice Warrior.
I swear I’m going to slap whoever must have linked here from r/mensrights lo those many years ago.
marilynD Southern Oregon
I really get it now. Last Sunday, I did something really awful without realizing what I was doing. I was not fully understanding the concept of doxxing or how you commit it. I live pretty quietly in small(er) town S Oregon. I have a 73 year BernieBro sister, a loud and proud feminist 32 year old DIL, a son and daughter that are as well. We keep peace in the family by not discussing politics because we all love one another. A slight verbal scuffle took place a couple weeks ago when we celebrated my mother’s birthday, and my son stepped in and shut it down quickly. I am thankful to have this on topic opportunity to personally and publicly apologize to John for messing up his wonderful blog. Thank you John for all you do.
aimai
@eric: I think there’s a huge gender issue, which might not be obvious to a guy, because women just receive tons more harrassment than men do, online and in person. Its so invisible and so pervasive that you might not know it. But people who have experienced random strangers ordering them to smile more, catcalling, or otherwise feeling free to walk right into their personal space and challenge them are going to be a little leery of anything that will draw even more attention to them.
gene108
@schrodinger’s cat:
If not for WW1 a lot of things around the world would have taken longer. We’re still feeling its after effects in some parts of the world, such as the Middle East map.
India’s full support of the British emboldened India to ask for self-rule and when that was rejected a full blown independence movement was started.
Ho Chi Minh was at Versailles asking for U.S. support for Vietnamese independence, which the U.S. ignored. He later decided to become a communist and started a decades long military struggle for Vietnamese independence, first against the French, then the Japanese and back to the French.
trollhattan
@hovercraft:
Ten wet noodle lashes for me. :-(
Immanentize
@Major Major Major Major: My guess is it might have been old Cole followers who were still aggrieved?
Elie
@Fair Economist:
He aint gonna do shit but the same name calling and throwing a bunch of fantastical lies about her or her husband. They will be ready for him.
Meanwhile, back at the Republican ok corral, dude is running out of money and not getting much love from Republican leadership. Seems to me he is fighting a two front war and according to Politico, hasn’t even filled many of his essential campaign jobs, which of course allows big mistakes to keep being made…
hovercraft
@louc:
Exactly, something that the otherwise useless Tweety said comes to mind, his father was a staunch republican who assumed that his wife was too. But starting with Kennedy she just quietly went into the voting booth and cancelled his vote out. There will be millions of these women in November. Instead of the Bradley effect, lets call it the Trump effect.
Amir Khalid
@Fair Economist:
A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, and the Donald has a yooge and classy mind.
Iowa Old Lady
@pseudonymous in nc: Trump hasn’t exactly presented as a balanced, fact-respecting candidate, thank goodness. People who aren’t already behind him aren’t going to believe an increasing amount of what he says.
slag
Agreed all around on this post. There’s a component to racism, sexism, other-ism that members of the “default” class may just never get. Even if they themselves have been bullied or othered in their lives. If they could just take the worst, most ostracized, times of their lives and live them again as a minority person–a black woman, for instance–they might get it a little bit. But even then, they wouldn’t have the lifetime buildup of othering with which to contend.
Since reading novels has been demonstrated to improve empathy, I wonder if virtual reality could take it to the next level. It’s an interesting challenge, for sure.
Miss Bianca
@marilynD Southern Oregon: s’awright. You knew not what you did. “Go forth, and sin no more”. : )
Elie
@aimai:
…And a fair amount of the intimidation that women receive is right a home with the hubbie or boyfriend. Oh, not necessarily abuse, but an attitude of presumed entitled domination with snarky asides about women who boss them around….
Eric U.
@hovercraft: have you ever tried to stop a Brinks truck from backing up? Especially one full of cash? INVINCIBLE!
Amir Khalid
Bernie’s giving a post-meeting statement from the White House right now.
Kathleen
What I think is telling is that some broadcast “reporter” or “journalist” (I respect reporting from the print media much more than I do network TV, cable or radio – looking at you, National RePublicAn Radio) could have analyzed voting patterns by demographics and provided a more realistic picture of how key the votes from women and African Americans were in PBO’s 2008 and 2012 victories. Then they might have said, “Gee, I think I heard somewhere that Hillary is courting the same voters. Maybe I could do some ‘research’ and see how successful she’s been and ‘report’ on how important those voters are and how successful she seems to be in getting their support to provide an alternative to the ‘Hillary enthusiasm gap’ stories our competitors are touting. Also, why are women reluctant to express their support?”
So what do we get when she’s declared the presumptive nominee? Recycled “enthusiasm gap” stories. How is Bernie Sanders “feeling” and how will she help him “feel” better. And how will she help those passionate young people who loved Bernie but want her to die feel better? And how can she talk about income equality and wear expensive clothes or jewelry? And isn’t it great how Bernie ran such a great campaign and “Pulled Her To The Left”? Oh, yeah, we forgot. She’s the first woman to be nominated for President by a major political party but darn, why does she have to be a Democrat.
Thank you, Betty, for this heartfelt post. If I were a bigger person I’d be more focused on her achievement instead of ranting about her treatment in the media. So thanks for helping me get to the point where adults who have the discipline to keep their eye on the prize (PBO, Hillary, Nancy Pelosi but not me so much) because there are issues bigger than their need for public emotional satisfaction and gotcha’s.
eric
@aimai: I dont disagree, But i have seen it from women sanders supports to women hillary supports and conservative women to me as well. i think that threat component is clearly gender based. I am suggesting that the silence has as much do with people not wanting to deal with the irrational Clinton hate. I dont want to minimize the threat to women, I just want people to be aware that i think that silence runs across gender lines
Genghis
I get it – having a woman President is a long unfilled emotional and historical need. Whether this is the right woman, or if this is right for the country is beside the point.
“Then there are folks of both sexes who believe Clinton is a warmongering Wall Street strumpet.” http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/06/09/anarchists-for-donald-trump-let-the-empire-burn.html
I’m not saying I’m voting for Trump, but we really have no idea how ineffective he will be. That’s an appealing thought. Arnold the Governator and Jesse Ventura come to mind. I have a very good idea how effective HRC will be. It’s her policies and who she is beholden to that concern me.
Attack of the BJ Hilbots in 3, 2, 1… filled with *creative* name calling, but no direct address of the concerns raised. Such as, what’s a liberal (or an independent) to do? What is to prevent HRC from pivoting to the right? How best to clean up the Democratic Party establishment, which gave more than the appearance of fixing the primaries?
I’m fine with HRC’s support of women’s issues. Let equality reign. I’m also fine with her support of gun control, but I am doubtful there will any meaningful success. Up to me, gun laws would be similar to the UK or Australia, so I support efforts to get guns under control. But – it won’t happen in my lifetime. Hope I’m wrong about this.
$12 minimum wage increase by 2020? Please. Not even close. Incrementalism is fine in most circumstances, but time has been held back artificially by the right wing for 30 years. This is no time for incremental change.
None of you want to talk about emails without saying Republicans did it so it’s ok. The details don’t bear that claim out. Anyone here believe this was done for reasons other than circumventing the Freedom of Information Act? Anyone here believe the server wasn’t hacked? Anyone here have a problem with her refusal to come clean about it for months? And how about those $peeche$ for Wall $treet? Isn’t it obvious what the tone and content were? Doesn’t the influence of all the money she was paid concern you?
http://www.thompsontimeline.com/The_Clinton_Email_Scandal_Timeline Fwiw, the author claims to be a liberal.
So go ahead. Vote for the woman. Even this one. It’s defensible, even admirable from historical and emotional perspectives. Can any of you who claim to be liberals defend voting for HRC based on her likely policy goals? Yes, Trump is scary. But so is HRC.
Best…H
Starfish
I am going to vote for her, but I think that the Clintons are overly cutesy in trying to outsmart their political enemies. I am not super enthusiastic about her because I don’t think it is a great accomplishment for a woman to gain political office after her husband has held the same office. And in the past women have gained political office that have opened doors for no one else.
But I am some shade of first generation American, and I am very enthusiastically not going to go build Donald Trump’s metaphorical wall.
piratedan
@Redshift: and I have to say… push back can be a touchy thing… I’ve pushed back where I thought I could make a decent coherent argument but an awful lot of the Dem disdain and Hillary hate comes from those irritating memes nurtured by our media…
I hear things like… scandal, untrustworthy surrounding Clinton, yet when I ask about actual wrong doing, I get cited 25 years plus of derogatory coverage in the media and when I press for a single item of wrong doing… I get bupkis but no conversions. As for Dems, hell, we probably have 30% of the country that actually thinks that they’re still in charge of this do nothing Congress.
As for women, considering the issues that so many have online from simple misogyny and sexism (bad enough) to swatting (which I am surprised doesn’t get more attention) I can completely understand why the support is silent but present.
Nicole
Some years back I did a play with several New York actors, and got along well with all of them until the night I got into a political argument with two of them, over whether incarcerated felons should be allowed to vote (I am of the belief that yes, they should, and polling stations can be set up inside prisons on Election Day). I thought it was all a lively political discussion, but those two actors stopped talking to me for the rest of the run of the play. I was pretty torn up about it until my husband pointed out they probably were upset about a woman going toe-to-toe with them in a political argument.
The day John Edwards dropped out of the primary (the show was during the winter of ’08), one of them said to the other actors in the dressing room that night, “So, who are we voting for? The c*nt or the n*gg*r?” One of the other actors (a lovely guy I’m still friends with) asked them to tone down the language and got absolutely screamed at by one of them for “ruining everything.”
And these guys, I’m sure, considered themselves good New York City liberals. I have no doubt they voted for Obama in November of that year. But racism and sexism transcend political boundaries, even if one side is much more open about their prejudices than the other.
I haven’t talked about how genuinely excited I am about Hillary to anyone except my husband (who is also), and my female friends. It’s just too exhausting to get lectured and/or shouted down by XYs, who get reaaallly upset if you even suggest gender enculturation is maybe playing a part in their very strong emotional reaction to her. It’s annoying enough on blogs; in person it’s really aggravating.
Whatever. She’s stood up to 20+ years of GOP smear attacks and she’s still standing. Take a good look, desiccated corpse of Margaret Thatcher, because this is what a REAL iron lady looks like. And she’s on our team, not yours. Ha. Count me among those who thought the first woman president was going to have to be a Republican, and who is so, so glad to be wrong.
Betty Cracker
@marilynD Southern Oregon: I’ve got a similar agreement with my wingnut father. We haven’t discussed politics in 20-plus years.
@Major Major Major Major: I see lots of speculation about paid trolls, and 999 times out of a 1,000, it’s probably bullshit, but that troll might be the real thing. He always has a set of talking points that he stays on relentlessly, and lately he’s been pimping that book in all-caps and bold font — as soon as I saw that, I knew it was the RtR troll for sure. I kinda hope he’s a paid troll, tbh; it’s too sad to think someone would do that voluntarily for so many years.
greennotGreen
@NonyNony: I have an admission to make, and it should apply to the college student’s boyfriend, to everyone who encounters a person of a different opinion.
A couple of guys were doing some work for me in my house. One has done jobs for me for years, and I count him as a friend. His daughter was getting ready to “graduate” from 4th grade, so she told her mother before the graduation ceremony, “Now, Mama, I want you to wear makeup.” We laughed, but then I said to her father, “Does she expect you to wear makeup, too?” The the other guy said, “The government…” and I interrupted. “The government? The government doesn’t have anything to do with whether women wear makeup!”
I really regret that. I regret not hearing how he was going to tie the government into the issue of women’s makeup. Similarly, when we sometimes shut down what appears on the surface to be questionable reasoning, we don’t understand the kernel of those arguments, so, if we need to counter them, we won’t know how to do it effectively.
Miss Bianca
@Genghis:
Oh, FFS. If you can seriously put these two names together as *equally* “scary”, all I can say is…”nice privilege you got there, bud. Be a shame if anything were to happen to it”.
Actually, no. No, it wouldn’t be a shame at all. Let’s bring on the scary HRC regime!
Fair Economist
@Elie: Speaking of not filling campaign jobs, he seems not to have hired any researchers. His criticisms of Hillary seem to come from late-night conservative talk radio. Of course, he probably thinks he already knows everything, so what does he need researchers for? The contrast with Hillary is striking, because as smart and witty as she is, she’s got a host of researchers and surrogates backing her up. It takes a village to become president, too, it seems (but it does not take a Village!)
Kathleen
@carame: This, this, oh, and this, this, this. Beautifully stated.
slag
@Genghis:
Oh yes. Clearly you “get” it.
rikyrah
Obamacare’s Success in Protecting our Finances
It wasn’t the primary goal, but it’s a big help nonetheless.
by Nancy LeTourneau
June 9, 2016 2:41 PM
One of the critiques we often heard both during and after passage of Obamacare was that health care reform shouldn’t have been the priority while the country was climbing out of the Great Recession. That misses the point that the stimulus package had just been passed and even Democrats were not likely to have backed doing more until it had been fully implemented.
But the critique also misses a point about Obamacare’s impact on our financial challenges. We know that before it passed, healthcare expenses were the leading cause of individual bankruptcies. In addition, the rise in costs were leading to healthcare expenses soaking up unsustainable portions of both state and federal budgets. That is why this statement from members of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York contains some truth.
I don’t necessarily agree that protecting our finances was the primary purpose of the law. Ensuring that people had access to health care supersedes all other goals. But it is important to acknowledge that the main reason that was becoming more and more difficult was financial.
The Feds included that statement as a part of their report demonstrating yet another way Obamacare is succeeding.
.
Chyron HR
@Genghis:
Go to random Democratic blogs and whine for 11 months straight.
Don’t give up, you’re almost halfway there!
hovercraft
@Miss Bianca:
Now now missy, the male ego is a fragile thing and has to treated with kid gloves. 8 years ago everyone was yelling at Clinton to drop out and shut up because she lost, she was standing in the way of history. Now it’s don’t crow too much you have be sensitive, he has all those supporters who need to have a voice. I mean Jesus H Christ Chuck Todd was demanding that Bernie should have veto power as to who her VP will be. Women should get over it because apparently we are not passionate, Bernie and his supporters are allowed to throw a tantrum because they are the future of the party.Or maybe not so much.
ThresherK (GPad)
@Immanentize: Reminds me of Hank Hill’s mom, actually.
Was it so many years ago I could think of the Hank Hills as being more than a rounding error in number?
bookdragon
Yeah. I read that and it hit me as very true. My mom supports HRC but can’t say it out loud where she lives because of the blowback she’d get.
Even here in the relatively liberal Northeast I find myself reluctant to put up yrad signs (as I did for Obama) or speak up. Not because I am afraid for myself – I’ve been studying martial arts since I was 12 and have a nice collection of swords and throwing knives as well. If I were single and on my own, it would be ‘come at me bro, I’d like an excuse to mangle someone like you’. But I have children, one going into jr high and one in HS, and those years are bad enough without extra harrassment from BernieBro types. (I may rethink once he steps down. Neither kid is shy about voicing that Trump is awful).
rikyrah
I fall into this category.
Kathleen
@Miss Bianca:I feel the same way about Facebook. I rarely go on Facebook and will not post any political views and I don’t want to read what a high percentage of my “friends” post about politics (lovely people with in my view terrible political views).
That’s why I like Twitter, where I feel more comfortable in expressing political views because I can seek out strangers who are aligned with my views. And since I’m a nobody, I don’t think very many people actually pay attention to my tweets anyway so I feel it easier to express.
Amir Khalid
No acknowledgement from Bernie that Hillary has already won the primary. On the other hand, Bernie ended his statement by saying he looked forward to meeting with Secretary Clinton “in the very near future” to see how they could work together to defeat Donald Trump. Sounds like a good sign, doesn’t it?
SiubhanDuinne
@marilynD Southern Oregon:
You didn’t mess up John’s wonderful blog. You simply messed up (out of ignorance, not malice); when you were corrected you immediately and fully retracted and apologized, and you made it clear you won’t do that again. That makes you a bigger person than many who comment here, and an asset to this blog. I hope you’ll stick around and participate fully.
Jeffro
@NonyNony:
That’s when it started for me, that’s for sure…a relatively slow burn though the 90s, followed by full-on bonfires in Dec 1998, Nov 2000, Oct 2001, Feb 2003, Nov 2004, and blazing pretty steadily since.
dedc79
I would virtually never link to Politico, but this is worth a read:
scav
@Chyron HR: “pretend he’s a different person”? Nah, it’s the spotlight he wants — the interwebs are his little pond he’s imagining he’s a big fish in. Confuses them with the bulk of reality.
bemused
@Betty Cracker:
I think most of the trolls are extremely needy for attention. Quite sad.
Cacti
@Amir Khalid:
Slowly, slowly, he’s being talked down from the ledge.
Major Major Major Major
@Betty Cracker: I do agree with you re: the possibility of paid, just because its level of coordination with the wingnut churn cycle is uncanny. It’s why I haven’t blocked it.
artem1s
I think we are going to see a lot of people finally coming out in full support in the coming days. It hit me around the time of the Ohio primary how much Hillary supporters were being bullied into withholding public support and comments. Every.single.post. on Hillary I read on a ‘progressive’, snarky blog bracketed and apologized for having the audacity of writing something positive about her. It was infuriating but I kept silent because even there I was called an asshole for merely pointing out the increasingly difficult math problem faced by the opposition. I have to say I am frankly relieved that I can finally let loose and I am finding lots and lots of women on social media who are doing the same. I’m sure in the coming days, the bullying to silence the cackling of the hens will start up again and a lot of her supporters will go silent again. But they won’t forget that feeling. They’ll hold on to it for November. and January. It’s coming and all the Drumpfs can’t stop it now.
smith
@rikyrah: There’s also another somewhat more hidden financial benefit to Obamacare that has probably been masked by the effects of the Great Recession: It’s now much easier for people to strike out on their own, by starting a business for example, than previously, when many people had to stay in jobs they hated just to preserve their health insurance. I’m not sure we have yet seen the real impact of this, since the job market was so shaky for so long, but the potential is still there.
Fair Economist
@Betty Cracker: I think *that* troll does it for fun. It’s too transparent, and it changes horses too readily. It supported, what, 5 different sides during the course of the Republican campaign? I can’t believe they *all* had troll-funding departments with such active HR departments. And if it’s looking for social interaction – well, I believe it could be pretty lonely in meatspace and it certainly gets plenty of social interaction here!
The troll-who-must-not-be-named is, I think, actually paid. But not this one.
Booman has had a libertarian sort-of-troll since whenever. I’m pretty sure it does it for the fun too, although it does have consistent positions, is often genuinely entertaining, and can have a meaningful discussion. Some people just enjoy this kind of thing.
Miss Bianca
@hovercraft: Heh heh. I truly hope that author is right. I was so happy looking around the crowd around HRC during her acceptance speech and saying, “*that’s* the America I want to live in” – women and POC out, loud, and proud, working to make that phrase “with liberty and justice FOR ALL” a reality.
NonyNony
@Betty Cracker:
Nobody is paying him to troll here. Nobody would spend any money for someone to troll Balloon-juice. What would the point be? Paid trolls are sent off to newspaper comment sections and YouTube and other places where there is high visibility, and even there I would assume that most of those trolls would actually be some College Republican dumbasses who do it as part of their College Republican membership and not because they’re getting paid to do it.
The trolls we get around here do it for the lulz. I suspect that this guy really enjoys it that people think he’s being paid to troll here. He likes to pretend that he’s operating on behalf of a political campaign to feed into that too. Don’t buy it – he’s just trying to make people mad and get them to respond to him (that’s why I said if I’d known who he was I wouldn’t have responded in the first place – I’ve made a vow this year to stop feeding trolls. We’ll see how long it lasts…)
Immanentize
@ThresherK (GPad): Made me smile — thanks.
Betty Cracker
@Genghis:
Vote for HRC so that the racist, sexist demagogue Trump doesn’t get to lard the Supreme Court with Heritage Foundation hacks for a generation. These are not difficult choices.
slag
There is an important distinction to be made here. The same women who are quietly supporting Hillary were probably breaking their backs to ensure Sarah Palin never came close the Oval Office eight years ago. So, it’s not just any woman that matters. It’s a woman who can, to some degree, credibly represent the interest of women on high priority issues.
Be honest…If a Sarah Palin had made it this far (shudder), no way on earth would you be putting up that yard sign, but for a totally different reason. And you’d be totally right.
MomSense
@Immanentize:
Let’s hope they aren’t listeners of A Prairie Home Companion.
Fair Economist
@Amir Khalid:
Yes. It must be hard to get that close to the brass ring and not get it. He’s not coming around as fast as Hillary did in 2008, but it’s a tall order to expect him to match Hillary’s self-control and discipline because she’s unmatched in that department.
ThresherK (GPad)
@Nicole: Keith Knight had a cartoon from 0o with a verbatim pollster’s quote from autumn of that year. I think the respondent was in WV, and they told the pollster “We’re voting for the ******”.
I am on the run, can’t look it up now, perhaps it is in Salon’s archives. But it was a weird moment to see in a drawing, as it contained two thoughts I don’t put together.
Fair Economist
@Miss Bianca:
Wasn’t that great? I gotta start saying the Pledge that way. Maybe we can turn that into a pro-Hillary ritual at all the numerous events where we recite the Pledge.
Major Major Major Major
@ThresherK (GPad): I remember that. Assuming it happened, the part that really made it weird for me was that the person (in my recollection a canvasser) asked the wife, and the wife asked the husband who “we’re” voting for, and the husband told her that.
ThresherK (GPad)
@Immanentize: My BiL was raised innWorcester and then worked in Amherst before a long career a UT Austin. He says the depiction of a TX suburb and its populace in that show is pretty spot-on. As a history prof, I trust his word.
slag
@dedc79:
This is, broadly, quite accurate. And I hope will make up for whatever lack of enthusiasm people have for Clinton.
grrljock
@Nicole:
*slow golf clap* Well done!
Mnemosyne
Honestly, I think I have a bit of the same feeling African-American voters had about Obama in 2008 — I’m afraid that misogyny in this country is so powerful that people will vote for an unqualified asshole like Trump rather than put a woman in charge. I’m hoping this feeling will diminish as the campaign goes on so I can feel properly excited.
trollhattan
@NonyNony:
There’s a different possibly, which is low-level party employees filling their spare time. I it find more probable than “Hey, you, how’s a dime a post sound?”
dmsilev
@Amir Khalid: But there was also this:
Earth to Bernie: It doesn’t matter whether you lost CA by 12 points, lost by 2 points, or even eked out a tiny win (the latter is very unlikely, but is possible). You still lost the primary.
MomSense
@ThresherK (GPad):
I got that response in phone calls. Some in Maine but also PA.
pseudonymous in nc
@Genghis:
Well, we know that State’s server was hacked, because that’s what happens when you have massive procurement contracts in goverment.
Remind us of how many Supreme Court justices they nominated.
An ‘ineffective’ Trump presidency effectively empowers Paul Ryan, the Freedumb Caucus, and Yertle McTurtle, and potentially locks in the ideological balance of SCOTUS for a decade or so.
What’s a liberal to do, indeed?
gwangung
I think that should be “white males” for “people”; black people as a whole did a lot better under the previous Clinton administration than they did under the Bushes, both economically and justice-wise. They have good reason to think they’ll do at least as well under another Clinton presidency.
trollhattan
@shomi:
California? It’s stuck at the 12% spread and uncounted mail ballots won’t change that more than a tenth or two. Nothing to wait for.
marilynD Southern Oregon
@Miss Bianca: @SiubhanDuinne: @Miss Bianca: Thank you both for your kind words. I had a lengthy thank you written, but since I live in a rural area, and very close to a lot of diverse things to do (Ashland OR), we don’t seem to be worthy enough to have cell towers that work well, so my computer got sticky, and my comment got eaten. Have a great day!
slag
@Immanentize:
Nah. Everybody knows all that stuff can really be blamed on gay marriage. A weapon so powerful it destroys from the future!
Nicole
@ThresherK (GPad): I remember hearing that at an anecdote in a story told about a pollster in PA, too (I live in NYC now, but I grew up in the Alabama section of Pennsylvania). I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened more than once.
rikyrah
@Genghis:
REALLY?
Seriously?
trollhattan
@dmsilev:
Wow, he really said that? He’s either delusional or cruelly dishonest.
hovercraft
EJ Dionne on Hillary.
trollhattan
@rikyrah:
RW troll playbook, chapter and verse. New nym, old lunchmeat.
Immanentize
@Mnemosyne: Yes that feeling was very real. I remember a Boondocks comic in which Huey was asked, “What’s the first thing you would do if you became President?” and he said, “After, ‘Get assasinated?'”
Major Major Major Major
@trollhattan: Just because the results are mathematically uninteresting doesn’t mean the campaign won’t wait. His supporters are not known for their numeracy and tend to respond poorly to not counting every vote.
rikyrah
@dedc79:
thanks for that. I saw it in a tweet, and wanted to post it.
I have said before….
Those who run around talking about ‘no difference between Trump and HRC’ ……puleeze.
Trump has said what he would do the Mexicans.
He’s told you what he would do to the Muslims.
He’s accused a sitting judge of being incompetent because of his ethnicity.
That women who have abortions should be punished.
But, I’M not supposed to take the man at his word.
Being non-White..
I.DO.NOT.HAVE.THE.LUXURY
of NOT taking Trump at his word.
hovercraft
@ThresherK (GPad):
That was in PA and it was Nate Silver’s blogmate/ photographer who told the story back at his original blog.
slag
@gwangung: Fair enough. But let’s be honest. We still have a problem with minority turnout at the polls. If we didn’t have that problem, historically, our political sphere would be quite different.
gwangung
@rikyrah: Hell yeah. To the max.
catclub
@NonyNony: It is too bad that no one looks at twenty years of motivated investigations and zero indictments,
and concludes – nothing there.
trollhattan
@Major Major Major Major:
He’d have a point, if a minor one, in a close winner take all state but this is grasping at straw free air.
Kathleen
@hovercraft: Thank you for providing link to an excellent article. It’s so refreshing to see someone who actually examines the validity of conventional wisdom and media tropes. I’m glad Vox gave him a voice. I pretty much agree with what he said.
hovercraft
@Mnemosyne:
It doesn’t dissipate but you begin to see more and more signs that it really may happen and that when you tell your kids that they can be anything they want to be it just might be true. But until it happens you won’t truly believe. ( I’m a black woman, so back to back pins and needles).
hedgehog mobile
@rikyrah: Yes. Thank you.
Miss Bianca
@slag: “A weapon so powerful it destroys from the future!”
There have been many Internet-winning cracks of late around here, but I’d like to nominate this one FTW.
@rikyrah: This. times 11-ty million. I am so sick of having to point out to the Caucasian doofuses of my acquaintance that things might be all right for THEM if Trump gets elected, but it’s most emphatically NOT going to be all right for a substantial portion of this country’s population.
NonyNony
@trollhattan: I suspect that this is mostly so that he can make an argument about the size of his support. It’s clear at this point that he finally knows he’s lost – I wonder if the campaign had just assumed that “liberal California” would be closer than it turned out to be? (Making the mistake that so many of the rest of the country makes about the state that sent us both Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan – it’s more liberal, but it isn’t THAT much more liberal).
Fair Economist
@hovercraft:
In layman’s language “She works her ass off to help everybody.”
I can live with that in a President.
hovercraft
@trollhattan:
It’s called moving the goal posts, after DC it will be some new rational to stay in.
dedc79
@rikyrah:
I’ve been hearing this quite a bit [ETA: but uniformly from white men], particularly in the past few weeks, and from people I never would’ve expected. It’s hard to take the claim seriously, but it looks like we may have to.
dmsilev
@Major Major Major Major: California law allows until the end of the month to complete the certified count. Are we really supposed to wait that long just to settle whether Hillary’s final pledged delegate margin is 385 vs 387?
Immanentize
@NonyNony: Same with Massachusetts. Some very liberal things — with a Republican Governor
Immanentize
@dmsilev: Every day is another day when someone can send in $27.00!
ETA — if that is what Sanders is saying about the “final count in California,” that is just so friggin’ sad!
Gelfling545
@Kathleen: Today, deciding to take the bull by the horns and thereby avoid the manure, I notified my FB friends that I would be enthusiastically supporting HRC and that if it troubled any of them that this was their fair warning to hide my posts.
catclub
@Genghis:
Yes.
The Notorious R.B.G.: 83 years old
Anthony Kennedy: 79 years old
Stephen Breyer: 77 years old
Not so hard.
cckids
@rikyrah:
Amen.
On FB this morning, regarding the dead-enders; I saw “The grocery store was out of my favorite beer, so I’m going to drink bleach”. That’s exactly how I feel.
Major Major Major Major
@dmsilev: There were other things on the ballot, you know. CA does a lot of propositions in the spring.
Chyron HR
“You’ll see,” they said, “Obama will meet with Bernie and get him to accept reality when everybody else in the Democratic party tried and failed!”
DON’T WORRY GUYS I’M SURE LUCY WON’T PULL THE FOOTBALL AWAY AFTER SHE LOSES IN DC!
Snarkworth, short-fingered Bulgarian
@MomSense: SCROTUS?! Have mercy!
hovercraft
@slag:
In 2012 the highest turnout was black women, and I believe a couple of states, I think NC African American turnout was higher than whites. This was partly responsible for the push to enact new voter restrictions after the Shelby decision. Now latino voter participation is a whole different conversation as well as midterm participation But Trump is doing everything in his power to change that.
gwangung
@slag: I think we have more problem with minority vote suppression (particularly since minority voting rates have been steadily rising over the past few Presidential election and I think has passed white participation in the past couple). And mid term elections are a problem, though I do tend to recall it’s more focussed on the poorer segments of the minority electorate.
Major Major Major Major
@shomi: The Times called it yesterday.
hovercraft
@Immanentize:
The fact that he still hasn’t released May fundraising numbers probably means he’s in debt, so he needs it.
Ninedragonspot
@shomi: http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/president/party/democratic/
maurinsky
I was not too enthusiastic about Clinton when the primary started, but Sanders’ campaign left me cold – no real, feasible policies. I understand the desire for massive change to happen fast, but our democratic republic was not designed for massive change to happen fast. It is deliberately designed to be slow and incremental. The only time things have changed quickly was in response to disaster – World War or Depression.
I am legitimately excited about her now.
dedc79
@Genghis:
I’ll take your entirely unserious question and treat it seriously. For starters, I’ll take the person who believes in and wants to do something about climate change. I would think you’d admit that’s kind of a big deal.
I’ll take the person who doesn’t villify ethnic and religious minorities over the one who has made it his M.O.
I’ll take the person who will let the DOJ civil rights division protect civil rights, the EPA protect the environment, the Department of Energy innovate on clean energy, the Department of Interior to expand National Parks/Forests/Wilderness Areas, the Department of Education to protect public education, the SEC to do its job, the IRS to do its job, the Consumer Fraud Protection Bureau to protect against consumer fraud, and so on
sdhays
I’m actually cautiously optimistic on the Clinton-drama front. This campaign has been run much, much better than the last one, and I think Hillary and her entourage has clearly learned something from President Obama in that regard (and I know President Obama learned something from the way the Clinton’s were treated that helped set that path). Bill seems genuinely old enough that he’s not chasing tail anymore and if he can keep his piehole under control, I think that with the new media landscape, it won’t be like the 90’s.
They’re not going to achieve “no drama Obama” levels, but it’s a very high bar.
Ninedragonspot
Secret footage of Sanders’ Plan B to catch up in the California primary…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqD0pqDOAtk
Omnes Omnibus
@Genghis:
Yep.
Miss Bianca
@Chyron HR: I’m afraid I’m with you on this one.
NonyNony
@Genghis:
This is just stupid.
Here’s a link to the policies that she’s running on. Her stance on Climate Change by itself makes her a better and less “scary” candidate than Donald Trump. And that’s one issue. Issue after issue on that list are things that any liberal should be proud to stand behind.
You’re either incredibly misinformed on what Clinton actually stands for (likely because you haven’t paid attention) or you are a troll. There is a case to be made that Clinton is too hawkish for our own good, but that’s because she buys into the post-WWII foreign policy consensus on how the US should operate, not because she’s got some radical ideas on foreign policy. Trump meanwhile is more hawkish than Clinton and also rejects the post-WWII consensus in an aggressive and hawkish manner. He’s far “scarier” than Clinton is in that arena by any measure.
There is absolutely nothing in her policies that would make me upset about supporting Hillary Clinton. There are a few things that I’d change, but then that’s been true of Obama as well and will be true of ANY president that we have because none of them are me and so therefore none of them are perfect :)
Major Major Major Major
@Ninedragonspot: OT: I ‘love’ it when writers do exposition like that.
My favorite was from the X-Files.
Kathleen
@Gelfling545: Good for you! This campaign is helping me to see how much I hold back and how deferential I am to others’ feelings when it comes to expressing my political or social beliefs. How I proceed next not yet determined. Thanks for the thought fodder!
hovercraft
From 1937 to Hillary how attitudes have changed
Click through for the answer.
We’ll get there eventually.
D58826
@Genghis:
Fortunately when they fell flat on their faces they didn’t accidentally land on the nuclear football and start WWIII.
Elie
@Chyron HR:
The Democratic leadership including Obama is allowing him to slow down and back away from the cliff edge where he put himself — and his followers. They are being respectful and calm but the pressure is there. I am sure that swaddled in some very nice language was both carrots and the little tip of a stick sticking out just a little bit.
In human psychology, once some one is revved up, its kind of hard to go to neutral quickly. You have to give folks some space to cool down while helping them achieve what is desired: de-escalation.
Bernie has some work to do with his supporters and I can tell you from my own experience with them here locally in WA, there is still work to do. It was horrible that he has kept them wound up for so long and I have no idea what the plan is to get his supporters to back away from the cliff edge. Some have already but at my PCO meeting last night, there are still a bunch who are angry and even delusional — screaming about the Democrats conspiring with AP to suppress voters in CA!
dogwood
@Major Major Major Major:
Bernie’s bargaining position is not going to be stronger after the DC primary. If the Sanders voters wanted to maximize their influence they should have encouraged him to drop out before last Tues. In ’08 the Obama campaign predicted with close to 100% accuracy their chances in the 50+ contests. They knew they’d clean up in Feb, and early March, and if that didn’t lead to her suspending her campaign, they’d just have to slog through the last two months knowing they’d lose those contests but work to make the delegate allocation close. The end of the primary season this year just didn’t present any opportunity for Bernie to win much, and DC is not Sanders territory at all. Sometimes you just have to be realistic and bow out when you are actually in a stronger position.
hovercraft
@NonyNony:
But Bernie said she is just a corporate stooge. Ralph Nader said she’s just as bad as the republicans.
Stella
@shomi: In California mail ballots postmarked by midnight on election day and received within three days are valid ballots. Ballots received by tomorrow will still be counted, so we won’t know the final count until COB tomorrow.
I mailed my ballot back on the same day that I received it!
slag
@NonyNony: Agreed agreed. The hawkishness is the biggest concern for me, and it’s one definitely worth pressing — all the time. But there is absolutely no policy area in which Trump is even remotely acceptable. Especially hawkishness.
The decision this year is perhaps the biggest no-brainer you can get in an election. If any liberal is having trouble with it, I remain convinced that their fealty to principle is simply weaker than their fealty to crazy.
Major Major Major Major
@dogwood:
I see you’ve identified another flaw in the Sanders campaign.
Kathleen
@hovercraft: OT side note but proud to say that Nellie Tayloe Ross appointed my great grandfather to be Commisioner of Labor and Statistics in Wyoming. I have a copy of the condolences telegram she sent my great grandmother when he died. I didn’t realize that she was elected after her husband died (I thought she had been appointed to serve the rest of his term). She lost a re-election bid but went on to serve as Director of the US Mint from 1933 to 1953.
evodevo
@Cacti: They still do that – look at all the abuse Michelle has had to put up with while in the White House – she’s a strong, intelligent professional woman who had her own career, and rightwingers heads exploded. The fact that it is the 21st century doesn’t even phase them and their hate.
piratedan
for those of you that need to find new ways to express our fear of trumpism..
http://theoatmeal.com/comics/fireworks
AlanM
@Snarkworth, short-fingered Bulgarian: Senior Consort Resident of the United States, it must, it has to be.
mr_gravity
@smith: In 2008 I heard my GF’s son (conservative, military) ask his mom if she voted for the “right guy”. I was speechless. If I’d ever had the temerity to question my mom’s vote I would have been spitting out teeth.
Elie
@dogwood:
Bernie is in an emotional, not fully rational state. He’ll wind down but it will take some time and has nothing to do with the facts on the ground or any situational reality but more his emotional investment in the way deeper ambition/vision than probably he even knew. Actually, its to me a further support that he is emotionally unsuitable for the presidency — he is dogged even in the face of hard facts and that is never good for a president with enormous powers. While many of us spoke of voting for whoever ended up the Democratic nominee, I have to tell you, I would be extremely anxious voting for Bernie. He is not altogether together….All the Bernie supporters who talk about Hillary’s hawkishness seem unphased by this guy’s psychology which to me is worse.
NonyNony
@slag: Eh – l can see people who believe that casting a ballot for someone who will do anything they consider wrong to be an unpardonable sin and so they refuse to do it. But those folks really need to stop participating in representative democracy – nobody you vote for is going to do the right thing 100% of the time and they’re going to make mistakes. Sometimes big ones where people die. If you take personal responsibility for the mistakes made by people you vote for, you are never going to be able to do anything but make feeble protest votes for candidates who have no chance of getting elected and you should probably just stop. Perhaps it’s the fact that I’m an ex-Catholic, but I can see the justification for casting a ballot for Jill Stein if you believe that your vote enables someone to do one bad thing even if it’s potentially stopping someone else from doing a thousand more horrible things. I think it’s screwy, but then that’s why I’m an ex-Catholic.
But the idea that Trump might not be so bad compared to Clinton? Like I said, that’s either outright ignorance on an astounding level or trolling. There is no excuse for a liberal to vote for Trump or to advocate for voting for Trump. If you are looking at Clinton and Trump and thinking that Trump is going to be better, then you aren’t a liberal. Go join the GOP and just embrace your Dark Side and get it over with.
D58826
Early reports from the WH meeting
1. he will continue campaign thru the DC primary
2. will work to prevent trump from being elected
3. will meet with Clinton in the near future
4. will monitor the calif. vote count because it is a lot closer than it looks.
I think thre is still a lot of work to be done to get him off the cliff
Trollhattan
@NonyNony:
I’d love a post mortem of late California polling showing a toss-up. There was something deeply wrong with either the methodology or the analysis. They should fix that.
NonyNony
@AlanM: I actually wish that David Broder had lived long enough to be forced to call Bill the “First Gentleman” through his gritted teeth.
Cacti
@evodevo:
I think they’re still looking for the “whitey tape”.
LAC
@slag: how big of him to “get it”. Ahhh… Mansplaining. Makes it easier for us gals to focus on hair curling and nail filing.
Ninedragonspot
@Major Major Major Major: I agree. Elegant screenwriting, powerfully delivered.
D58826
And Obama has endorsed Hillary to the surprise of no one, except maybe Bernie
BruceFromOhio
@hovercraft: THIS THIS THIS THIS THIS holy shit THIS times eighty-nine jillion. I am driving this like I stole it.
@tinare: My eldest daughter gave essentially the same recollection to me last night on nearly the same topic. She lacks your history, but is on the same path. Fortunately we have a safe space in our home where she need not stay silent. Still kills me that in 2016 America you both have to live like this, and I’d like to change that.
eclare
@Miss Bianca: Middle age white lady here, and it is very hard not to take it personally when privileged people talk about voting third party. In FL! I get my health care through the ACA, and I want to ask them if they would be happy for me not to have health insurance, as supposedly I am their friend, but I don’t. That conversation will circle the drain very quickly. Not to mention all of the other people who value their health insurance, voting rights, criminal justice, environmental regulations, and a grocery cart full of other stuff. Baffles me. And to a t, they think they are “enlightened”.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@rikyrah:
Every non-white non-male is right there with you, rikyrah. I just simply find it impossible to comprehend not understanding how much privileged entitlement it takes to be so dismissive of the stakes involved for everyone not white and male.
BillinGlendaleCA
@gwangung: I’m old enough to remember when Asian Americans were a relatively reliable Republican vote.
starscream
Massive change can happen quickly if a single party controls all branches of government. If the Democrats had had a solid, filibuster-proof Senate majority in 2009-10, we’d probably have cap and trade, immigration reform, a public option, and more infrastructure spending right now. Unfortunately, we’re nowhere near it. No amount of hounding Mitch McConnell is going to change that.
catclub
slightly off topic. TPM has a post pointing out that the GOP website has no mention of Donald Trump, which is a little cowardly. It has mentions of Hillary Clinton but not the Donald.
Then I went to the DNC website. Hillary is even more of a non-person at the DNC website, but there is an entire heading for Donald Trump.
A search on HIllary or Clinton finds two items – one is a year old on her announcement she is running. The other is from February.
gwangung
@BillinGlendaleCA: Yup. And Republicans pissed it all away…kinda like they do with everything the past 20 years. And they keep whining “It’s not our fault!”
Amir Khalid
@D58826:
California was closer than it looks? What makes Bernie think so?
Miss Bianca
@hovercraft: I heart hovercraft. : )
@Kathleen: DEEPLY cool!
Kay (not the front-pager)
@Immanentize: This is exactly the case with most of his older women clients. Strong, smart women who outlived their asshole husbands and know how to make their money work. They know their own minds, but they are careful who they share the output of those sharp minds with.
Cool!
D58826
@Amir Khalid: The pink unicorn vote is slow in coming in
Snarkworth, short-fingered Bulgarian
@Major Major Major Major: This literary contrivance is referred to in the trade as “As You Know, Bob…”
Trollhattan
@sdhays:
Agree very much. She probably needed, or at least certainly benefited from running a campaign all the way through the primary process and then being at the helm of State. I’ve come to admire her ability to not merely learn from experience but to become a better person for it. I just get grumpier and more cynical.
LAC
@Ninedragonspot: so this Sanders plan that was also secretly taped is over now? Because it was pretty sound.
https://youtu.be/DZg9evqG9e0
dogwood
@D58826:
I don’t know about that. That list isn’t much of anything. As I said earlier, competing in DC strengthens Hillary and weakens him, so it looks like he’s taking some meaningless concessions and declaring victory. He can do whatever pleases him; he and his voters are free agents. I’m confident Obama, Clinton, Reid, Pelosi and the rest of the despised “establishment” will never say a bad word about him. But after next week the train is leaving the station and he can hop on or go his own way.
Miss Bianca
@eclare: White privilege is something we have to fight in our friends and family, if we can – and always, always, in ourselves. Dismantling the racism that was baked into me thru’ my upbringing and my society has been a humbling and at times painful experience, and I don’t know if the damage can ever be fully undone. All I can do is say to myself, “listen, learn, fight it in myself, and fight its effects for others.”
Kathleen
@Trollhattan: But playing with polling data that follows your script that white guy upstart is giving Hillary fits and stay tuned for the breathless horse racey coverage is so much more compatible with the mainslime media business model.
CONGRATULATIONS!
@D58826: The bolded is how you know someone’s mind is stuck in the “small state” mentality. We’ve got almost 40 million people living in CA. At best he might add a tenth of a percentage point to his total, whereas the same vote differential in his home state would probably swing the state.
I’m at the point where I’m still angry at the guy – he’s fucking up the process and he can’t even give any explanation as to why he’s doing so – but I’m also starting to feel real sorry for him as well. He’s not thinking straight, he lost hard and bad at the end, his wife is facing serious legal issues that aren’t going away, he’s not going to get much of what he asks for, and he knows he’s probably going to get primaried successfully by somebody next cycle since his weaknesses have been exposed for all to see.
NonyNony
@catclub: I suspect that this is because Sanders has not yet conceded, and so the primary race is not technically over yet and Debbie Wasserman-Schulz is trying to do whatever she can to minimize the attacks from Sanders supporters being heaped on her personally. Putting up a big “Congratulations Hillary Clinton” or going in-depth on the pro-Clinton message would only cause more attacks to head the DNC’s way and she’s really probably trying to do her best to not actively provoke them at this point.
I assume that as soon as Sanders concedes (or the convention happens, I guess) the website will go full-on into pro-Clinton mode as well as anti-Trump mode.
Nate Combs
@Major Major Major Major: Most of my facebook friends bombard me with Bernie propaganda all day, so I’ve been silent for the most part. Still, I’m a WM that voted primary for Clinton, and I know my wife did as well.
Major Major Major Major
@Snarkworth, short-fingered Bulgarian: Ahh, didn’t know the ‘official’ name, thanks. In college we just called it “pulling an X-Files.”
“You know, you really pull an X-Files on page two of this story.”
dogwood
@catclub:
Do you really think the DNC wants the rath of the Sanders voters to come down on them before Bernie quits?
Roberta in MN
@dedc79: I have to disagree a bit with this premise. Most of Bernie’s supporters were independents and had a fit when they couldn’t vote in closed primaries without registering as Democratic voters. Bernie himself has never changed his affiliation from Socialist to Democratic. I have no sympathies for him and his loss. I have heard the same stuff out of him for the last 20 years and him being in congress that long and not accomplished anything says a lot about him. As for Hillary, she was not my first choice but she has earned my vote and I will work to elect her and not Barnum & Baily barker. I think of the Supreme Court, and down ticket Dems that need our support to change the trajectory of this nation. God Bless you all. 1st time posting here.
Mnemosyne
@catclub:
On the DNC side, I don’t think they can (or probably should) make her prominent until Bernie concedes.
Trollhattan
@Amir Khalid:
If I were to bet, I’ll bet the margin increases after counting the remaining mail ballots, not closes.
After poking around for day-after percentages for the CA 2008 primary, the day-after totals on Feb 6 were 52% to 42% Clinton over Obama. The final certified tally is Clinton: 51.5% Obama: 43.2%. I think it’s reasonable to conclude this year’s results will remain stubbornly as is.
Chyron HR
@Elie:
Oh, i see, I see, poor Bernie just needs a little more time to wrap his brain around the fact that he’s not going to be President.
When will he finally be ready to admit that Clinton is the nominee? November?
Maybe December?
NonyNony
@Trollhattan:
I’m wondering if the way the polls were conducted accidentally eliminated people who had already voted via mail-in ballots. It isn’t like the poor polls were the usual Rassmussen and Fox News claptrap – YouGov and Marist and other reputable polling outfits missed the mark widely in the last week.
But only in the last week – if you discount those polls and look at the polling averages, then the average lines up pretty well with the final results. Suggesting to me that perhaps the first question was along the lines of “are you planning on voting in the Democratic primary election on Tuesday June 7th” and mail-in voters responded “no” because they’d already voted and weren’t going to a polling station. The number of polls that failed makes that doubtful, but there really does seem to be some weird discrepancy going on there.
Ninedragonspot
@LAC: actual footage, secretly taped, of the Sander campaign HQ on Tuesday night.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8gmXTu3gHg&sns=em
Trollhattan
@Roberta in MN:
“Most” of Bernie’s supporters are independents? Do you have a cite?
Every state’s rules are different. In California, DTS (decline to state) voters have the opportunity to vote in every party’s primary except the Republicans, without changing parties. They make it really easy to do so by sending the request card well ahead of the election.
Gelfling545
@Elie: I’ve had doubts about Sanders’ temperament myself. He doesn’t seem to handle things not going his way too well. I can’t imagine how he’d deal with what President Obama has been handed for the last 8 years.
aimai
@Cacti: Friday or he should get pushed…of the ledge.
Trollhattan
@NonyNony:
Wish I knew more about them. IIUC it’s become harder to poll a good sample due to the shift to cell from landline phones, but that’s not a new hurdle. The Field Poll is considered California’s “gold standard” and had Clinton 2 points ahead on June 2. The heck?
Major Major Major Major
@Trollhattan: Clinton had a huge lead in early ballots and the election day vote was a slight Clinton lean. Field was accurate, it just wasn’t a complete picture.
dogwood
@Elie:
I am exactly where you are and have been for a long time. I made a rational case here many months ago for why I didn’t think Bernie was temperamentally suited for the Oval Office and I was really attacked. I didn’t say a single negative thing about him or his platform. The idea that anyone you agree with politically would make a good president seems absurd to me. i
rikyrah
@Stella:
3 days?
In Illinois, they get 14 days
Major Major Major Major
@Trollhattan: @Major Major Major Major: Or not. I just read the methodology and it’s unclear how they counted people who had already voted. They had Hillary with a huge lead among early ballots and said that early ballots would make up 2/3 of the votes and that Sanders and Clinton were tied among those who hadn’t voted yet… so… not sure how that works. Maybe I’m not reading it right.
Miss Bianca
@Ninedragonspot: @LAC: You people are KILLING me over here.
rikyrah
@Roberta in MN:
welcome to BJ posting :)
LAC
@Ninedragonspot: ?
Bernie’s charm offensive with Hilary:
https://youtu.be/ljWRwEOjB5U
different-church-lady
@Genghis: Shorter Genghis: “Even though I don’t outright hate her, I’m still inclined to repeat a lot of horseshit about her.”
Matt McIrvin
@catclub: Antonin Scalia: dead
KithKanan
@Major Major Major Major: Not this year. The only ballot prop was an uncontested measure amending the constitution to allow suspension of legislators without pay after a 2/3 vote of their chamber. Total nothingburger.
Major Major Major Major
@Matt McIrvin: Obama’s greatest accomplishment.
Matt McIrvin
@shomi: California was an unexpectedly huge win for Clinton–contrary to a lot of late polls. What made the difference seems to have been a truly gigantic lead in early mail-in votes, many probably posted before the narrowing of the last week or two. Sanders was, I think, roughly at parity in the day-of-election voting.
different-church-lady
@Matt McIrvin: Before we go bandying about this theory, should we not know what percentage early mail-in ballots were of the overall total ballots cast? Because 12% seems like a hell of a big gap to be bridged by mail-in ballots alone.
Major Major Major Major
@KithKanan: I was thinking of local stuff. We had a bunch of stuff in SF. Of course. And the primary for state senate was really tight, a couple(?) thousand votes tight. Not that it matters much with the jungle primary, but Jane Kim really wanted bragging rights.
@different-church-lady: The Field poll had 2/3 of the ballots cast early or by mail.
Ninedragonspot
@LAC: Meanwhile, high up in the Vermont mountains, the revolutionary vanguard continues its discussions…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJ7CZJs2LA4&sns=em
Mighty M.
@Cacti: completely agree! I’ve also taken an under-the-radar-screen approach this year, because, frankly, I’ve been intimidated by the implicit violence of our opponents. Does that mean I’m not donating to and voting for Hillary? Hell no!
MaryRC
@Starfish:
Aaaanndd there it is. What we’ve been talking about. How about “I don’t think it is a great accomplishment for a man to gain political office after his wife has held the same office.”? Would you say that? She is running for the office of the Presidency. But it’s not an accomplishment because, hey, guys have already done it.
dogwood
@Mighty M.:
Volume and aggression are not the same as passion and commitment.
Matt McIrvin
@NonyNony:
I have seen people say this who are basically single-issue voters on foreign policy non-intervention. The idea is that Trump will be too incompetent to actually do much global damage, he has some isolationist sympathies anyway, and the chaos he’ll cause domestically will keep the US from being able to invade anyone, whereas Clinton is a competent warmonger who will build a persuasive case to lead the country into terrible imperial wars. They’re basically hoping for a Trump win as a way to bring down the American empire.
Personally, I don’t buy it. George W. Bush’s incompetence made him more dangerous overseas, not less. The Republicans and the Trump campaign are generally signaling that he wants some conservative Grand Viziers to actually drive policy, and those guys are as likely to be old Bush-admin neocons as anything; Trump at one point floated the possibility of an appointment for John Bolton. And, like Hillary Clinton, he only opposed the Iraq invasion after the fact; unlike Hillary Clinton, he brazenly lies that he did before.
different-church-lady
@Major Major Major Major: Are you saying that in California 2/3rds of the overall voters are not voters who walk into a polling place on election day? (If so, that’s a real eye-opener for me.)
satby
@MomSense: I did too, once, phonebanking in Indiana. I wasn’t sure I should believe them at the time, but the area did go for Obama in 2008.
Major Major Major Major
@different-church-lady: Hmm, you know, maybe I’m misreading it, though that would make for an even more eye-popping figure.
I presume that “this year’s presidential primary” refers to California.
Annie
@ Genghis:
1. I will vote for Hillary but I would have voted for any Democrat because voting doesn’t just select the President, it also selects the group of people a President will choose from when they make appointments, from the Cabinet, and the Supreme Court, on to the Assistant Secretaries of departments who actually do the work. I don’t want those jobs filled by Republicans and that’s who Donald Trump would appoint. Compare Justices Breyer and Ginsburg, appointed by Bill Clinton, to Alito and Roberts, appointed by Bush II, if you want an example.
2. Can you direct me to evidence that “the Democratic Party establishment . . . which gave more than the appearance of fixing the primaries”?
Trollhattan
@different-church-lady:
If the historical trend holds, roughly 70% of California ballots will have been by mail. Last primary was in the high 60s and the trend has gone up continuously since they made vote-by-mail requests permanent, on request.
different-church-lady
@Trollhattan: OK, so count me behind the times. I had no idea more mail votes were cast than in-person in California.
So, the results the spreadsheet I just built (yeah, I’m a geek) show that if you assume 70% of overall votes are mail in, then in order for there to be an election day walk-in 50/50 split, Clinton would need to win the mail-in by 58/41. Seems implausible.
Raven Onthill
This. I think this is a excellent feminist observation and will be tweeting it and linking it on my blog, when I get some time to do so.
Trollhattan
FWIW, the Field Poll questions:
Interesting in light of the poll’s 10% miss versus the actuals.
The Lodger
@Major Major Major Major: Don’t we all?
EllenH
@Matt McIrvin: FWIW Benchmark Politics predicted it on the nose based on demographics. They didn’t back off even when the most recent polls showed it a 2 point race.
dogwood
@Annie:
There would be significantly fewer dead-ender purists every election cycle if they didn’t get so much attention.
Matt McIrvin
@different-church-lady:
Just from watching the results come in, I got the impression that the early returns were even more lopsided than that–more like 65/35 for Clinton. Then they narrowed somewhat.
Cheap Jim, formerly Cheap Jim
@schrodinger’s cat: Well, the Swiss were neutral in 1914, and they didn’t let women vote in federal elections until 1971. One canton, a kind of alpine South Carolina, held out for local votes until the courts forced them in 1990.
So, taking the Swiss as a point of comparison, probably 30 years from now.
Nelle
I’m in a university town and I skipped the caucus last winter. I saw the treatment of the Hillary supporters in 2008 (when I was last in the States) and thought, no, I don’t need that. I’m quiet about my support of her – I get met with “She’s a liar” “Where there is smoke, there is fire” etc. Even from my son, which is a major disappointment, though he says he will sadly vote for her. I can’t tell the difference between Sander supporter’s criticism and Republican criticism. But I will be going to my first Democratic county meeting this coming weekend.
Matt McIrvin
@EllenH: There were polls a week or two out that showed that gap. I noticed that there was a huge split by polling method: the Internet and some automated-phone polls showed Clinton way ahead, and traditional live-landline polls showed it almost tied up. Then the numbers from the Internet polls started converging just in the last couple of days, but of course a lot of voting had already happened by then.
Anecdotally, I recall seeing some reports of enthusiastic young Sanders supporters who weren’t registered to vote, and/or either weren’t planning to vote or had no idea how to do it.
dogwood
Just got a text from my sister. The President just released an endorsement video for Hillary and they’ll be campaigning together in Wisconsid next Wed.
Trollhattan
@Matt McIrvin:
Yup, it was striking. There are many thousands of ballots yet to be counted, so today’s SoS tally can be compared against the final. If there’s no significant movement, that effectively means Clinton and Sanders had the same proportions of walk-in and mail ballots. That’s precisely what occurred in 2008.
LurkerExtraordinaire
I have been following this blog for a few months now because this blog, along with Lawyers, Guns, and Money, has been a bastion of sanity. Some of you might not believe it, but it’s true- there are other political blogs that I used to frequent that were taken over by BernieBros. (no, I don’t think all Bernie supporters are all bad). I saw more misogyny there than the time I spent in the military. It infuriates me.
But this post- this post right here brought me out of hiding, and I will tell you why. Because, for me, it doesn’t matter if I show outward support for Hillary. I’m a “blue no matter who” kinda gal. I grew up during the 90s. I was a college freshman around the time of the Lewinsky scandal, and I didn’t care then, and I don’t care now. I had no problem with Hillary then, and I don’t now- even with her Iraq vote (a place where I had the “pleasure” of spending time in- twice). She acknowledges that vote was a mistake, and that is more than you will EVER get out of a Republican. Hell, the only reason Trump thinks the Iraq War was a mistake was because we didn’t leave the place a huge sheet of glass. I never was and am not down with that kind of attitude. I am also not down with his attitude toward women in the military- how we deserved to be raped because we chose to join a profession dominated by men. No one deserves to be raped, period. His attitude towards women in general disgusts me. Top that off with his disdain for Mexicans (half-Latina here, married to a man of Mexican descent), and that asshole has his three strikes with me.
Hillary Clinton is a smart, capable, hardworking woman who has put up with a lot of shit for a long time- like most women have. I absolutely trust her judgment, and know that even if I disagree with her on some issues, at least I know I could have a rational conversation with her. And just like women around the world, I don’t have to show any excitement about anything in order to do what is right. What I NEED to do, is go into that voting booth in November, with my four year old daughter in tow, and cast a ballot for the female candidate- the BEST candidate, and explain to my daughter why it’s the right thing to do, and how when she grows up she can literally be anything she wants to be, and truly mean it.
P.S. Hello to everyone.
SoupCatcher
@Trollhattan: Was just skimming the 15-Day Report of Registration (warning, pdf link). Nice to see a 600k pick-up in registered Democratic voters from 2012. Republicans continue to shed.
J R in WV
@different-church-lady:
Two different BJ commenters who areCA voters have told us that Clinton had a “huge” lead in early voting, which in my book is going to easily create a big win even if day-of-election voting is close to even.
Early voting was anywhere from 66% to 70% of the vote according to information in this thread. I’m not going to take time to wander around 538 looking for exact numbers, since they’re still counting. I’ll take the word of folks from CA.
Trollhattan
@SoupCatcher:
Boing, wow! Nice to see, indeed. Donny, he’s a unifier.
Trollhattan
@LurkerExtraordinaire:
Hello, welcome, great post!
I had my daughter help fill out my primary ballot and Tuesday night while we were watching returns she asked if she can help again in November. You bet, sweetie!
Annie
@KithKanan: @KithKanan: maybe on the statewide ballot, but here in San Francisco we had several propositions on the city ballot.
But I’ve voted in every single election since I registered in 1973 so I would have shown up anyway
Carl W
@slag:
There’s an interesting natural experiment going on right now in the (online multiplayer) video game Rust. For a long time, everybody was represented in-game as a bald white guy; but recently, everybody was assigned a (random, unchangeable) gender and race. This made lots of people upset, and other people happy, and I haven’t read anything about it since it happened.
But it would be great if somebody would go interview a bunch of players after a few months and see if playing as a gender/race other than their own had an effect.
PatrickG
@rikyrah:
I don’t think some people in my circles really “get” what you just said, despite protestations that no, no, they really do, and that was way more eloquent than anything I’ve tried. So… May I quote that comment on social media? If so, would you prefer attribution or no attribution? Should any particular animal pictures be included (I mean, this IS Balloon Juice).
boatboy_srq
Those bumper stickers are all over. NoVA is covered with them (and with Gadsden-flag license plates and other Teahadi trash).
boatboy_srq
It says quite a lot that the US – supposedly a champion of human rights, bastion of freedom and beacon of equality – is so racist/sexist/anti-Otherist that outcomes like this election cycle are so remarkable, both in the relative tardiness of a woman candidate for leadership and the silence surrounding this candidate’s support. The nation is falling behind on the cultural evolution scale as much as on the economic equality / equality of opportunity one.
Brachiator
@hovercraft:
There’s no such thing as the Bradley effect. This is an urban myth based on a misunderstanding of what actually happened in that California election.
However, I take your larger point. And I remember in 2008, some public records of political donations indicated that a number of prominent Republican women had donated to Hillary Clinton’s campaign. I think that they wanted to be part of history, had Clinton won the nomination back then.
Today, the conventional wisdom is that Republicans despise the Clintons (and Democrats) so much that they would never vote for her, and that this includes Republican women. I don’t think this is true. I hope it’s not true. I would love for pundits and campaign strategists to be shocked by a strong turnout for Clinton.
different-church-lady
@J R in WV: I’m not doubting the percentage of mail-in, nor that there was a large lead in mail-in. I’m under the impression that we’re discussing why the huge gap between polling and results. I don’t think mail-in vs. walk-in can account for that. I would imagine polling organizations would be smart enough to say, “If you already voted by mail, who did you vote for?”
In order for us to believe that the “toss-up” in the polls was accurate, we have to believe there was a roughly 10% shift in polled voters sentiments AFTER 60-70% of them had cast their ballots by mail. I do not find that plausible. I think it’s more likely there was a failure in polling methodology.
Miss Bianca
@LurkerExtraordinaire: Hello! Thank you for ‘coming out’!
Trollhattan
@different-church-lady: Yup, see the Field Poll questions <a href="@Trollhattan: “>upthread They seem like the correct ones, question remains why didn’t they get accurate results? Bad sample?
Grumpy Code Monkey
To me, this is a sign I was raised by human beings – it is literally inconceivable to me that a woman, any woman, should have to fear for her life or safety if she dares to express a political opinion (or any opinion at all).
Just like it is literally inconceivable to consider forcing myself on an unconscious woman, or to take gender into account when computing a paycheck, etc.
Maybe it’s because I was surrounded by women growing up, maybe it’s because I fall into the iNTp category, I don’t know. But I simply cannot put myself into the kind of mindset that sees women as things to be abused or ignored.
Anyone who knows my politics would probably be surprised at me supporting Hillary over Bernie; my political views hew much closer to his than hers (per the Political Compass, I fall just inside the libertarian-left quadrant, Bernie’s further left straddling the libertarian/authoritarian line, and Hills is pretty much in the middle of the authoritarian/right quadrant). And I am not thrilled with the dynastic aspects should she win (Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Clinton). I’m against term limits in principle, but I wouldn’t mind something that prevents immediate family members from succeeding a President, at least within a certain time frame.
But I’m not a fucking idiot, either. Bernie doesn’t have the temperament or the skill to manage one of the largest bureaucracies on the planet. Hills does, in spades, which is why, in this election, she’s clearly the best candidate on any side (although I’m a little surprised we didn’t have a spate of younger candidates; the party has not done a stellar job of building the bench over the last 8 years).
I want this election to be LBJ ’64, Reagan ’84. I want Trump (and by extension the rest of the GOP) to get spanked all the way into the next decade. I want this win to be so ugly, so one-sided, so soul-crushingly complete that all the media hacks (Tapper, Blitzer, Brooks, the Moustache) who are openly rooting for Trump will be shamed into quitting.
Of course, I still want my drama at the GOP convention. I still want Palin to get blackout drunk and find a live mic. But I’ll gladly give that up for a definitive victory in November.
Brachiator
@Matt McIrvin:
I don’t know. Even mail-in California voters had plenty of time to think about Bernie and what he might mean to them. Maybe there will be some deeper analysis on this in the days ahead. There’s even been some recent stories about uncounted ballots, although I don’t know that these are enough to make a significant difference in the primary outcome.
Old Broad In California
I’m a HRC supporter in California and I was worried about the primary because of the abundance of Bernie bumper stickers (and dearth of signs of support for Hillary) I was seeing. But when I saw the convincing vote for Hillary, I realized that there were a lot of quiet supporters like me who didn’t want to deal with vitriol from the true believers of St. Bernie.
I absolutely think that women are subtly discouraged from voicing a political opinion which differs from the opinions expressed by the loudest men.
And by the way I am really enjoying reading the intelligent and thoughtful commentary here. Thank you.
Miss Bianca
@Brachiator: Is it wrong that I find myself hoping a recount would just *broaden* the gap between Clinton and Sanders? I think I’m just so tired of the “we wuz robbed!” rhetoric.
EllenH
@different-church-lady: I’ve also read (538 I think) that the polls don’t accurately capture the hispanic/latino voters. That why the folks making predictions based on demographics (i.e. Al Giordano and Benchmark politics) were much more accurate.
different-church-lady
@Old Broad In California:
It seemed to me very early that Sanders supporters over-estimated the value of enthusiasm. But your comment is (I think) the third today talking about how people kept their Clinton support quiet because they didn’t feel like engaging in conflict. Is it possible that the first group over-estimated so badly that it actually had a negative impact on his campaign?
EllenH
Count me among the women who were reluctant to share my support for Hillary on FB. So many friends and family members were pretty strident Bernie supporters, I just didn’t want to engage–although I didn’t encounter any vitriol from them. It just felt uncomfortable to be on opposite sides when we are usually so united. That said, today I can relate to both the FB post excerpted above and this more audacious post from Wonkette–My Vagina Voted Yesterday and it was Fantastic.
Jack the Second
Re: recounts, is California winner-take-all, or is this just grubbing for another 1-3-7 delegates like in Kentucky?
Carl W
@Jack the Second:
All Democratic primaries (and caucuses) are (at least approximately) proportional. I suppose you could consider the stakes a little higher than in Kentucky, because California has so many more delegates; but yes, it would be grubbing for a trivial, unimportant result.
Applejinx
@tinare: I’m a 48 year old white male, six foot tall and (fairly) muscular, and it’s me too.
Why? Because I’m poor, and while I don’t believe anyone is going to physically attack me when I’m big and male and white, my car is a little old Subaru with more than 200,000 miles on it. My house is solid enough but the paint’s peeling because I can’t afford to paint it.
Maniacs from the right OR left, if they attacked my stuff and not me, would do huge damage to me. I’d be screwed if my tires were slashed, I’d have big hardship if someone spraypainted ugly things on my house: rich people can have things fixed, but the margin on which I live is too slim to stand much vandalism, so especially now that I am supporting Hillary I am a quiet little mouse about it. I respond to certain Facebook posts when there’s something I can say that’s hard to fault me for. I don’t put identifying marks on my car or tiny-ass lawn-scrap because frankly I don’t feel safe doing so.
Felt the same way back last fall when I was helping to get Bernie to where he is now. I didn’t put a Bernie sticker on my car, I just drove it to Keene to work for the man. I did not do that with the expectation that I’d have to lay low to avoid getting fragged by my own side :P
Expect many, many voters coming out of the woodwork to vote for Hillary, and I completely understand why they’d not be talking about it.
On the other hand, it could flip. If everyone on my street suddenly popped up with a Hillary sign, I would be incredibly quick to join them. That might be worth considering very late in the game: right before the election, suddenly the world explodes with public Hillary support.
But right now, hold your fire. I don’t want people hurt by homegrown terrorism from either wing.
Old Broad In California
@different-church-lady: Yes, I think Bernie supporters equated lots of enthusiastic people at rallies, lots of Bernie bumper stickers, and lots of Facebook posts with sure victory. They assumed everyone felt like they did and were probably shocked that they lost California.
HRC, on the other hand, had an organization here. I got at least 3 phone-bank calls for Hillary on Election Day, none for Bernie.
TopClimber
@AlanM: I think we have to lose the OTUS thing and go with USMALE. You know BIll will love it, not least because of Elvis.
mohagan
@different-church-lady: I live in a rural N CA county (Mendocino) and about 10 years ago was converted automatically (by the county) into being a permanent mail-in ballot voter. I remember when they were “absentee” ballots and you had to have a damn good reason to get one (physically disabled and unable to get to a polling place etc.). Then the county realized it was a lot cheaper to process a bunch of mail-in ballots and I haven’t seen the inside of a polling place since. For states which are not interested primarily in suppressing voting this looks like the wave of the future. OR is completely mail-in ballots now, for instance. I look at the huge lines in FL in horror. I first became aware of the huge differences in how states administered voting during the 2000 election and the butterfly ballot in FL. My first thought when I heard about it was why hadn’t those confused folks studied their sample ballots and then finally realized FL didn’t send out sample ballots.
rikyrah
@Cacti:
You are correct about the origin of their rage.