“Republicans Should Worry About Losing the House” https://t.co/P2p3kq4cuS
— Charles C. W. Cooke (@charlescwcooke) June 17, 2016
And that’s “senior editor for National Review and a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute” Ramesh Ponnuru worrying in public:
… Republicans accept the conventional wisdom that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, and they know that her election would probably end their majority in the Senate. But in a year that has upended political expectations, they have clung to one comforting assumption: Their hold on the House is secure.
Their majority is protected by gerrymandering, the geographic distribution of Republican voters, the power of incumbency and its own sheer size. Republicans have 247 seats in the House, the most since 1931. Democrats would have to win 30 to take back the chamber. And that includes many seats in districts that usually go Republican in presidential contests. That sets the House apart from the Senate, where to keep their majority Republicans will have to hold seats in states that usually vote for Democratic presidential candidates.
But Clinton’s lead in the polls is widening to the point that Republicans need to set aside their complacency. Split-ticket voting has declined over the last generation. If Clinton wins big – because Republican voters stay home, or swing voters choose her party, or both – House Republicans will struggle to win re-election. Henry Olsen, the co-author of a recent book about the Republican party, tells me that an eight-point win would put Republicans in the danger zone…
One more reason to #BeWithHillary!
Apart from yet more sweet schadenfreude, what’s on the agenda for the day?
Hey Republicans, how's that dopey-angry thing workin' out for ya? https://t.co/I8yPIKqvuS
— Jonathan Chait (@jonathanchait) June 17, 2016
May it be so!
PS: Always love that pic of Palin. She looks like a vengeful porcupine. Truth in labeling.
That would be sweet, although I’d imagine we’d lose it again in 2018. 2020 is the big year since that’s the redistricting year.
@Elizabelle: Hey, expat. How’s it going?
I would love to see GOP power at the federal level completely swept away by an anti-Trump tsunami. It’s unlikely, but by dog it looks like Trump is doing everything he can to make it so. This TPM piece says the Trump campaign currently has a nationwide field staff of 30. Yep, in a country with 50 states, in a party that wrapped up its contest weeks ago, the winning campaign has 30 people in the field. Unbe-fucking-lievable.
Also too, here’s a NYT piece on Hillary supporters coming out of the closet now the primaries are over.
I knew we were coming to a breaking point one of these days, I knew it would be unpredictable, but I never thought it would involve Donald Trump…
@Baud: Going well, candidate Baud.
Moving from my homestay to a private apartment for a week; then maybe another week or two in Barcelona and then — maybe — another Spanish city or two. Strongly recommended to take a week of schooling in Madrid and maybe Valencia or Salamanca. However, am enchanted with Barcelona. It’s so beautiful and breezy.
Baud, you are up early on a Saturday, no?
@Baud: This is where Obama could be enormously helpful. I would hope Democrats might stay in (reduced) campaign mode and ensure their voters turn out for the midterms. Guilt them, if necessary. Look what a lost opportunity it was that Obama had to deal with GOP gains in offyear elections.
This has to stop.
@Elizabelle: I am up much too early. I’ll nap later. Or as you would call it, a siesta.
@Betty Cracker: Even if the GOP manages to replace Trump as its nominee, I don’t think non-GOP voters will forget that he was enthusiastically supported by the GOP base, and that GOP “elites” like that nice Paul Ryan endorsed him, however tepidly.
I hope 2016 is lost, lost for the GOP, but I never count out our craptacular media to gin up a horse race, no matter what nag the GOP coughs up.
@Betty Cracker: The NYT piece is insane.
@Elizabelle: Yes, I hope so. We can’t continue to go on like this. We could have prevented Trump by keeping Congress in 2010. The GOP won’t change until they are forced to learn their lesson.
@Elizabelle: You’re absolutely right. You know who’s just the man to keep folks fired up and engaged in politics even without the grand reality show drama of a presidential election? President Obama. In half a year, he’ll leave office as a relatively young man who is enormously popular and beloved among Democrats. He’ll also still be in DC awaiting his younger daughter’s graduation.
I’m sure PBO is contemplating many post-presidential causes. But I think it would be terrific if he chooses to advocate for voting rights and greater turnout. If we could move the needle on that just a little bit, it would make a world of difference at every level.
@Betty Cracker: And I’d wager good money that some of those 30 are in CA, NY and TX.
@Baud: 5:30am, that’s what I call bedtime.
Good Morning ?, Everyone ?
He has totally delegated it to the Republican party. Doing it on the cheap.
Goes back to the donor class not opening their checkbooks.
@BillinGlendaleCA: If your up all night, when do you find the time to hike and take pictures?
Like the TPM story notes, the Republican party has its own field organisation to put together and run, for the down-ticket elections. Trying to build and run both its own field org and Trump’s is only going to leave both groups under-resourced and under-performing. And, best of all, it lets Trump walk away from the disaster blaming the party.
@Baud: Sleep walking.
In the daytime. Duh.
@rikyrah: You’re right. And that’s gonna hurt the down-ticket Repubs since the party ground game usually focuses on the under-card while coordinating with the presidential candidate’s field team. I suspect there’s enough latent stupidity, racism, sexism, greed, xenophobia, etc., in the electorate to prevent a complete Republican rout, but wouldn’t that be sweet?
@Betty Cracker: Latent?
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Pretty fucking cool – Marine One landing at Half Dome (photo)
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
This cinches it – Warren is Veep
@Baud: Existing outside the 27% who manifestly display those qualities, I mean.
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: LOL. That’s pretty silly reasoning even by Kristol standards. Of all the things people have said about Clinton, no one questions her toughness.
@rikyrah: Trump has a very well-documented record of not paying bills. Who in the world would ever agree to work for him? There are 30 people on his national payroll, and they’re all idiots who have fallen for the grift.
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: I love it.
Catch you guys in a few hours. You have put up some very interesting posts.
@Betty Cracker: Wouldn’t it be hilarious if Trump ended up with 27% of the vote? Someone should get a Nobel Prize for the crazification factor.
@Baud: Seriously, I think there’s some non-trivial explanation for that 27%. I have a suspicion that there’s a ‘concentration’ below which the character of your information environment changes qualitatively.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
This is happening, people!
Leave the proud clingers alone!
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: I don’t think Warren killing people by touch is going to go over well in Peoria.
@Baud: I can take pics in the evening, like I did yesterday.
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Meh! BillinGlendaleCA ON Half Dome.
@Elizabelle: I’ve been to all three, Madrid, Valencia and Salamanca. Valencia is really beautiful and I would say an very underrated city. They speak a dialect of Catalan there similar to Barcelona. Salamanca is also very, very beautiful. Madrid is a big city, but the cafeteria/bars all over the city I really loved. You can go at anytime of day and get sandwiches, light meals, coffee or a drink. There is always people there and the bar tenders are very vocal and like to chat. The tv is always on and people are watching football or discussing the news and politics. You won’t go wrong with any of those picks, but Madrid has all the downsides of a big and bustling city. Salamanca is really quite small and Valencia is mid sized. If you are curious about eating paella at ground zero, then you should go to Valencia.
I hope I am able to visit Spain again one day. Right now thinking about going to Buenos Aires, though.
Warren seems quite excited about Hillary’s Campaign. I’ve never seen her act Ike this. I like it.
Coffee in the library. Testing
Elizabeth Warren is Rouge? Who knew?
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@BillinGlendaleCA: our own John Muir.
@magurakurin: Well, she is of native American descent.
@Elizabelle: Hi Elizabelle! Barcelona is such a great city, glad you’re enjoying it. Have you considered Seville? I wanted to go there but never got the chance.
Good morning everyone! How’s things?
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
Where did you get the photo of Marine One? Are journalists or Obama tweeting or are they on WH.com. You always have photos for the moment on hand.
@OzarkHillbilly: If she touches Bernie what mutant power does she get from him? Sourpus face? Professional Victim Whine…kinda like Banshee?
Rachel’s interview with the reformed gay Islamic extremist is worth seeing.
The reports a little while ago about Sanders flipping San Francisco…not true. It does look like he flipped Santa Cruz county though. Basically it looks like Bernie won “South Oregon” and “Rich White People California.” Something like 1.2 million ballots still left to be counted and Clinton still +10.
@Baud: I think it would be 2022 because the Census is in 2020 so the redistricting cannot happen until after the Census results are published. The Census is conducted in April, I think, and I can’t imagine redistricting happening in time for November elections, or in reality, summer/fall primaries.
Well, I’m off to peer through coastal vegetation to spy on birdies. Hoping to spot a Pied-Billed Grebe, Tricolored Heron and Red-Breasted Merganser today. Catch y’all later!
@magurakurin: You’d think if it really were the Bernslide!!! that his supporters were gassing on about that it would be under +10 by now.
@yellowdog: But it is the 2020 Congress that will make up the map used in 2022 and beyond.
@Jeff Spender: Delusion.
Warren was at the Clinton HQ today pumping up the troops. Bernie needs to think about jumping on the train cause it’s pulling out of the station. If he waits much longer he’s gonna standing by the side of the tracks with his dick in his hand.
@OzarkHillbilly: I thought redistricting is done by states. How can anyone draw the map without the data?
@magurakurin: By my rough math, he’d need about 2/3 of the remaining ballots to win the state.
@raven: I liked the ‘Little Hands” commercial she showed at the end of her show.
@yellowdog: It’s done by the states. But it will be done in 2021. That’s why the 2020 elections are so important.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@Cat48: I have about 12 sources from wire services like reuters to major dallies like NYT to crowd sourcing like instagram, as well as local press when I’m looking for a specific story (when Obama was in Vietnam the best coverage came from indigenous sites), plus there are some historical sites like Corbis, and I also like to read trashy british tabloids (that’s where I get the ridiculous pics of revolutionary susan sarandon gallivanting around europe in her private jet).
The above photo came from Pete Souza.
Here’s another from yesterday: Obama with a little girl at Carlsbad Caverns
@magurakurin: I thought he’d won Santa Cruz on election day. What I’d heard on another thread is he flipped CA-13, the only surprise would be that he didn’t win that election night(Berkeley and Oakland).
@Baud: and probably quite a bit more since some of the votes yet counted are for the Republicans and some of the provisional ballots will be disallowed as not valid.
but he’ll still have his grainy podcast from the basement…
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@magurakurin: @BillinGlendaleCA: he did win santa cruz country on election night. The only reason I know that is because I was puzzled that he lost marin, but won SC.
@BillinGlendaleCA: That is a surprise. You would think that would be a stronghold for him.
@BillinGlendaleCA: It looks like you are right about that. San Luis Obisbo and Santa Barbra look like ones he flipped. The SOS site is breaking it out by county, so I suppose the claim about flipping Congressional Districts might still be true. Not that any of it matters.
Bernie needs to get on the Train…and quick
@magurakurin: I think delegates are awarded by CD, so that’s why that matters.
@BillinGlendaleCA: The City and County of San Francisco is CA-12, represented by Nancy Smash.
You are correct. I should have said ‘state legislatures’. I took Baud’s statement as ‘2020 being the year we need a wave election.’
I was reading too broadly. Not enuf sleep last night.
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
Thanks, I always appreciate them.
@magurakurin: San Luis Obisbo has Cal Poly SLO and Santa Barbara has UCSB; so they’d be fertile areas for Bernie.
@OzarkHillbilly: That’s what I meant. Not that the redistricting would be done in that year.
only in the minds of someone in the midst of a Dengue Fever dream or your local neighborhood BernBro.
@Baud: You mean I read between the lines correctly? My wife says I never do that.
What suntan lotion looks like in Ultraviolet.
Iowa Old Lady
@Elizabelle: I just skimmed the thread below, and I don’t know whether to wish the Rs succeed in finding their Trexit or not.
Good piece on Trump’s spokesperson. I didn’t know she started with Ted Cruz’s campaign. They fired her and she ended up with Trump:
@Iowa Old Lady: I say no, simply because then we’d have to engage in a pointless debate about whether to do the same on the Dem side.
Gerrymandered House districts could end up being the GOP’s undoing this year. When you spread your voters thinly to get bare majorities in a large number of districts you make those districts vulnerable to wave elections. If GOP turnout is low, a lot of 51/49 and 52/48 districts that the GOP arranged could end up 49/51 or worse.
From this vantage point it’s impossible to know because no polling has been done but they could be in trouble. Trouble of their own making.
At this point, the only GOP White Knight candidate I fear is Romney. Would this have a special appeal to him as a consequence if the “White Horse Prophesy?” https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Horse_Prophecy
The reaction of Trump and his supporters would be Must See political theatre.
@Ultraviolet Thunder: I would like to think the libertarian ticket could bleed off a lot of gop support in the house –conservatives go in, vote L party for president, and leave the rest of the ballot blank in disgust.
This is probably just wishful thinking, though.
@Ultraviolet Thunder: I don’t think there are very many districts that are that tight. Most GOP gerrymandering is done to pack as many Dems as possible in the fewest possible districts with the intent that the remaining Dems can be apportioned on say a 40-45% per GOP district basis, making them relatively safe GOP districts.
ETA: Dems given the chance will do the same.
STL and environs have 3 congressional districts. Before 2010 2 were Dem, 1 was GOP. The post 2010 GOP state lege crammed as many Dems as possible into the 1st district, split the remaining Dems in the other 2 at 40-45%. The 1st district critter, Cong. Clay, was quite happy with that. The 3rd district critter, Cong Carnahan was not happy at all, but Clay was much more powerful in the state party and they backed him to avoid a fight in the Lege that would gain them nothing.
Strongly differential turnout could make a big difference. Dem women and minorities turning out strongly and a lot of loosely attached nominal GOP voters staying home out of disgust. It’s a possibility but impossible to see at this point.
Michigan’s GOP Gov Snyder just did away with straight ticket voting in an obvious attempt to harm the Dems’ chances in down-ticket races. Dems turn out strongly in Presidential election years but are not as strongly motivated as Republicans to vote the whole ballot. Unfortunately it will probably work.
I am SO jealous of your sojourn! Is the language learning going well?
If Trump’s tossed aside, the 13,000,000+ who voted for him will not be happy. Can the GOP risk even half of them staying home?
Will there be any discussion on this blog about Hillary’s actual policies that she is running on? Or is that not exciting for you guys? I get it that the mainstream media is policy deficient, but this blog is supposedly better than that. Yet, very little discussion on what Hillary is going to do once in office. Why are you guys so excited for her, other than cult of personality? Because no one is really talking about her platform, except to say how more realistic, (aka, not that progressive) than Sanders but what is the realism?
Gin & Tonic
@Elizabelle: Coming in way late, but we loved Sevilla as well.
Gin & Tonic
@Partisan Cheese: Is someone preventing you from starting such a discussion?
@Ultraviolet Thunder: It will definitely hurt them, hence Snyder’s actions in an attempt to minimize the damage to the state GOP. Enuf to make a difference in the House? Color me skeptical.
Gin & Tonic
Don’t think, go.
This one? I’ve watched it a few times. Still cracks me up.
I came across this one last night. Who better than Ralph Kramden to call Trump a Ba-Labber Mouth?
@Partisan Cheese: We’ve been talking about them all along, sorry if none those conversations were convenient for you. Which policy position do you want to talk about?
Good morning all! I am.visiting my mother in Upsrare New York today. It’s beautiful here today.
As for redistricting in 2020 — didn’t the Democrats launch some.super PAC to.focus on 2020 state legislative races and Secretary of State elections? Wifi does not exist here or I would fire up the computer and.ask Ms. Internet myself.
One other thing — lots of Trump.bumpers around here. Most unsurprisingly, I saw a guy on 88 “rolling coal” with a “Make America Great” sticker.
I listened to a great discussion of climate change on MPR yesterday called Doubt, Deception and Defiance done by Climate One. It’s almost an hour long and well worthing listening to. The oil and energy companies fomenting public doubt about man contributing to climate change while taking it seriously themselves. The same groups hired to create doubt about tobacco harmful effects also hired by the oil companies to do the same with climate change. Scientists hired and paid well to create doubt, one at Smithsonian which agreed to a non-disclosure agreement. Two state attorney generals investigating. So much more and much I have been reading about but it was good to hear it on MPR.
I see what you did there, Baud.??????
TOD has pictures of Marine One landing in Yosemite. I love the visual. ?
Everyone here in California 49 was surprised. Darrell Issa only got 51.5% to 45% for the Democrat, who is a retired Marine officer with a gun policy that of course we who know how to use them responsibly have a 2nd Amendment right to own guns. Everyone else has to qualify every year. Perfect for our conservative military population, who think Trump would be a terrible Commander in Chief.
I’m happy Hillary gave her big speech in San Diego.
Issa usually wins 60-40. It’s a long shot, and he has a ton of money, but if there is a big wave in November, we might be able to get get him out.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
I thought he already was, but just hasn’t figured it out yet.
@efgoldman: Rub it in, whydoncha?
Most of Hillary’s policies are standard Dem stuff, so it comes down to do we prefer Dem policies to GOP policies, or not? And most of us here obviously prefer the Dem policies.
But let me talk about two of Hillary’s specific policy proposals: (1) Fed composition, and (2) Alzheimer’s research.
1) Fed composition: if I understand correctly the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest rates, has 7 Presidential appointees, including the chair, and the 12 regional bank presidents, who are bankers chosen by their peers. (Only 5 of the 12 regional presidents vote at any time, on a rotating basis, but all 12 participate in the meetings.) So the Fed operates a bit overmuch from a banker’s worldview, and too little from a perspective that would take the fortunes of everyday Americans into account.
Hillary wants to make the FOMC fully Presidentially appointed.
2) Alzheimer’s disease. Right now, our nursing homes are operating pretty much at capacity – and they’re filled with dementia patients who were born in the 1920s and 1930s. In 15 years, the first baby boomers will turn 85. If they experience Alzheimer’s and other forms of dementia in the same proportion as their predecessors, America’s nursing homes will be overwhelmed beyond belief, because there are so many more Baby Boomers than there are people born between 1930 and 1945. So either we put serious money now into Alzheimer’s research – and that means just a few billion a year, but currently it’s more like in the hundreds of millions, which isn’t nearly enough to pursue all the promising lines of research – or we spend tens or hundreds of billions in 15 years to build and staff new nursing homes for all the Baby Boom dementia patients.
Hillary is the only major political figure I know of who is pushing a major increase in Alzheimer’s research.
There’s two for you, anyway.
Trump supporters, don’t worry. There will be a legion of KKK and American Nazi Party volunteers turning out to campaign for your nominee in n the fall. Just think about White Power rallies for Trump in every major city in October. That’ll drive turnout!
@efgoldman: corrected a few posts down.
@low-tech cyclist: I think you were supposed to talk about which Central American governments she’d overthrow.
I see Smarmy Hillary just threw Debbie Wasserman-Schutlz under the bus. What a surprise! She would throw her own grandmother over the side if she thought it would do herself any good.
i haz moderation?
@low-tech cyclist: I don’t think PC is really interested in a policy discussion. They appear to just want to take cheap shots asserting their moral superiority.
Balloon-Juice walks into a bar.
Bartender asks “What’ll you have?”
Balloon-Juice replies “Your comment is awaiting moderation.”
@SteveinSC: still looking for the right word in trumps thesaurus of childish bullying? I dont think “smarmy” is the killer app of insults.
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: The photo of Marine One at Half Dome is all kinds of awesome. And certainly beats the other way of getting there. Haven’t done it, but have heard enough to know it’s not for me.
@SteveinSC: you Clinton assumed control of the DNC’s campaign apparatus just like every other nominee since..forever?
whatever, chief. Do you get a free bowl of soup with this spittle and bile? Oh, but it looks good on you though.
Gin & Tonic
@efgoldman: If you look at it from that perspective…
@germy: Obligatory mood music.
@SteveinSC: you should worry more about your idol”s cratering campaign, trumpista.
@Gin & Tonic:
@SteveinSC: Christ on a crutch. Do you ever try, for once, to be right? Hillary’s people are moving in to co-ordinate the election, which is what every other Democratic candidate has done:
This is from CNN, that of course has to do its best to make it some sort of slam on Wasserman Shultz. I know, I know the Village is trying to construct a narrative of Hillary the bitch, but we don’t have to.
Grumpy Code Monkey
It is day 2 of the Texas State Democratic Convention. Yesterday was all the caucusing, and my fears about the Berners has been mostly unjustified. They’re still bitching about superdelegates, but that’s about the extent of it.
The general session was enthusiastic without being excessively rowdy. I heard several times that this was the largest state convention yet, although I think that’s because we did away with the two-step.
Joaquin and Julian Castro were featured speakers in the general session, and there’s a strong “Julian for VP” movement. Joaquin: “My grandmother was not a rapist or a murderer.”
Sheila Jackson Lee asked, “Are you part of the membership, or part of the movement?”
There was a sense of optimism about this year; Texas isn’t in any danger of turning Blue, but there’s a definite feeling that we will make gains this year.
Great line at the West Texas Caucus – “you are not the only Democrat in your county.” West Texas counties are setting up their own support structure for Democratic office seekers.
Lots of credit to Bernie for bringing a lot of new blood into the party (and politics in general).
“First female President” is the carrot. Trump is the stick. GOTV, dammit.
@germy: God, reading that article makes me wonder how far up their own asses Republicans can crawl before they see daylight again. Seriously, Tom Cotton thinks at this point if they just stop talking about Immigration, they’ll get 40% of the Hispanic vote again?
@Grumpy Code Monkey:
And I hope they stick around for midterm elections
@Peale: I couldn’t believe Issa being called “combative” while he hops a fence to avoid a reporter…
Iowa Old Lady
Re gerrymandering, if the Ds manage to peel off white women, gerrymandering is much less useful. You can’t gerrymander women.
They didn’t do delicate gerrymanders like that. 55/45 was more typical, although 6 years on there’s been some decay. The district that will determine the House are not necessarily in the usual swing states. 6 of the most 40 flippable districts are in New York, 3 more in California, and 11 more are in assorted other “blue” states like Michigan and Washington. Ohio and North Carolina, 2 of the super-gerrymandered states, don’t have any. The other 20 are in swing states, but of course all of those will be safely Democratic in anything like the strong win we’ll need.
IOW, control of the House will hinge on mostly non-gerrymandered Republican districts in Democratic states.
Iowa Old Lady
@Fair Economist: My House district (IA-1) should go Democratic again this year. It was D all the time I lived here until 2014, when some of my neighbors lost their minds and elected a Freedom Caucus member along with Joni Ernst.
@Ultraviolet Thunder: Damn right and that’s why this matters.
We should flip the House AND Senate. And do it with a coalition that clearly represents all the voters who got involved in the primary.
But, but Reince tweeted the he and Trump were going on their happy-happy donor tour in Texas and that “Rs will win in Nov!” S0…case closed.
@Betty Cracker: It would certainly be ironic if the ‘he who shall not be mentioned’, i.e Obama, by the Bernie camp, actually pushed many of the Bernie goals across the finish line.
@low-tech cyclist: Great info. Of course, the intended recipient of your reply is unlikely to see it since he or she seems to parachute in to gnaw sour grapes before disapparating in a cloud of foul-smelling vapor. But I appreciate it!
Okay, I am sick to death of the ‘Your comment is awaiting moderation’. nonsense and not having a clue why my harmless post is so radioactive. Can we please get rid of this?
@Betty Cracker: That the same one that always pops in saying, “but whaaat about polllicy?” and every week we direct it to her web site, and then it pops up again with the same complaint that nobody will let it in on the deep dark secret of what policies Hillary is running on?
A lot can happen in 2 years.
Eh, there are too many mountains to climb here. Even if we got the House (not happening), we wouldn’t be able to break a Republican filibuster. The fundamentals of legislating haven’t changed, so we’d have to figure out a way to deliver without legislative achievement. And there’s also no guarantee that the redistricting process in 2020 will favor us. Likely, but not guaranteed – anything could happen between now and 2020, and if the country swings Republican that year, we’d need an alternative strategy.
@Mike J: Ignorance is curable, stupidity is not.
Shakespeare and Schadenfreude…my Lord it just sings, doesn’t it? Shakespeare in the Park! Love’s Labour’s Lost opened last night, went really well, King Lear tonight, and that should be great. Really proud of the level of talent and commitment I’m finding in the actors in this little tiny town – let that be a lesson to me about being a big-city theater snob. I just wish theater weren’t such a time suck – I have two close to full-time jobs when the rehearsal schedule really goes crunch, and only one of them am I getting paid for…
Villago Delenda Est
Yes. Yes it will. And Hillary’s crushing of Drumpf will be even more crushing.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
at Bernista conference, Bernie! is a neoliberal sell-out
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Pfft. Chow is the neoliberal. I would put the banks under the ownership of a better nation than the U.S.
@shomi: So, if the Dems win the House this year, you would rather have them worrying about how to keep it in 2018 than have them make the most of it while they had it? Sounds like a recipe to lose it again in 2018.
ot but Hillary is a grandma again. Chelsea had a little boy
Villago Delenda Est
Villago Delenda Est
@D58826: Good for Chelsea! Now stop making like a Duggar!
@D58826: Will her political machinations never end?
@Villago Delenda Est: I thought that was a libertarian paradise.
J R in WV
A gross distortion of what really happened. A new position was filled by a new appointee, while Ms Wasserman-Shultz remains chair of the DNC.
The new position is more like a Chief of Operations for the 2016 election campaign, while DWS is the Chairman of the Board. Two diff positions, and it happens every 4 years, like clockwork.
If it happens every election, it isn’t “throwing under the bus” now, is it??
Or am I feeding a new troll??
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Oh, noes! That Pres. Obama has got even the Youngs doing the Terrorist Fist Bump! What will White America do now??
@Baud: I’m sure he is already being groomed to follow in Chelsea’s footsteps to the Oval Office.
@Kropadope: Yep the democrats have to decide wither to chew gum or walk Disney is going to put up signs warning about the gators. Can we add a rolling tag line about not feeding the trolls.
@Grumpy Code Monkey: Yay! Thanks for the report!
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: It was only a matter of time, wasn’t it, before even Bernie wasn’t Bernie enough for certain Bernfeelers? Splitter!
@D58826: I don’t think the walking/chewing gum analogy is as apt as this little guy.
Spoink’s heartbeat is powered by its bouncing. If it stops, it dies. Democratic voters need to be engaged and want to see results. If Democrats win the house in ’16, they need something to show the voters in ’18 if they want to keep it. Worrying about 2018 now is pointless when we have our own day-to-day issues to attend to.
If they take care of business during their term, 2018 should be an easier lift. It’s not that I don’t think they can walk and chew gum at the same time it’s that if they plan on continuing to chew gum, they need to keep walking.
No One You Know
@germy: Don’t you get that after the fourth boilermaker automatically?
Is there any more humiliating title in journalism than ‘senior editor at National Review’? Other than being useful for getting on the grifting gravy train.
@daves09: Contributing Editor at Breitbart.com
Hopefully to the voting booth in 2018
Hasn’t he been doing that for some time now?
Clinton’s policies have been discussed here many times. Better still most of us can read and have already done that with her policies. And even if we hadn’t, she’s the nominee and her competition is drumpf, whose policy, as best as I can tell is hate is great, kill everything. So even if her policies were not great, and they are pretty good, balanced, workable, she is still the best of the lot by that proverbial country mile. Make that 100 proverbial country miles.
So what is it that you wanted to discuss?
the gerrymandering thing can work against the republicans. Voting models used to redo strict are very advanced. Since even midterm elections go majority for democrats the models in states that gained districts needed to put democratic voters who don’t vote in safe republican districts, those are overwhelmingly demographics like Hispanics. When you have a presidential candidate who says Mexicans are rapists, you fundamentally mess with the assumptions behind the models.
Hey, I don’t mind calling someone’s bluff. And it gives me a chance to talk about Hillary’s support for Alzheimer’s, which besides being personally important to me, really is going to be a major public health problem if we don’t find a way to delay the onset of dementia, or reduce its effects, slow down its advance, or something. Because we’re going to have all these old people whose brains have deteriorated past the point where they can take care of themselves, but who might live another 5-10 years, and WTF are we going to do with them? It’s a tidal wave slowly headed our way.
Villago Delenda Est
@low-tech cyclist: There are plenty of slow tidal waves heading toward us, and we’re doing a fantastic job of not slowly walking out of the way of them, because it would depress quarterly fiscal statements by microscopic percentages.
Yeah, well, he does have some experience in that area.
The Other Chuck
Without 60 seats, we don’t have the Senate. The nuclear option needs to come out.
Overthrowing Central American governments is so 1980s. Now our neocons and neolibs get to play Risk with the Middle East, where they have even less of a clue of how to fix anything.
Getting back to the thread topic, since Super Tuesday when it became clear that Trump was going to be hard for any other Republican to beat, I’ve never understood why anyone didn’t think the House was in play.
Sure, gerrymandering and all that, but in 2008, Obama won 53-46 and the result was 257 Dems in the House. With Trump as the GOP nominee, a 53-46 win has seemed more like the worst case for Dems than the best case. And you can’t tell me gerrymandering has put 40 seats out of reach in the event of a win by 7% or more.
Another way of looking at it is in terms of Cook PVI. In 2008, the Dems cleaned up big-time all the way up to R+4, and even took a decent proportion of seats in the R+5 to R+7 range. Theoretically, the same thing should happen in a 7-point win now as it did then, just with perhaps fewer seats in those ranges.
And here’s the deal: if the Dems take every Dem-leaning seat, every even seat, and every R+1 and R+2 seat, they regain the House in 2016. Since that’s unlikely, we can rephrase it: the Dems just need to win as many seats with Cook PVI of R+3 or of greater difficulty as they do of R+2 or lesser difficulty.
That should be quite do-able, unless DWS and the DNC wrote this off a year ago, failed to recruit decent candidates for 2016, and didn’t adapt to the prospect of an anti-Trump landslide.