Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Good lord, these people are nuts.

Imperialist aggressors must be defeated, or the whole world loses.

If you’re pissed about Biden’s speech, he was talking about you.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.

But frankly mr. cole, I’ll be happier when you get back to telling us to go fuck ourselves.

White supremacy is terrorism.

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

And we’re all out of bubblegum.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

We’ve had enough carrots to last a lifetime. break out the sticks.

Battle won, war still ongoing.

When your entire life is steeped in white supremacy, equality feels like discrimination.

Meanwhile over at truth Social, the former president is busy confessing to crimes.

We cannot abandon the truth and remain a free nation.

I didn’t have alien invasion on my 2023 BINGO card.

An almost top 10,000 blog!

Take your GOP plan out of the witness protection program.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

We still have time to mess this up!

You are here: Home / Open Threads / Excellent Links / Things I Wish I Had Written

Things I Wish I Had Written

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This may be my favorite sentence of 2016, and it’s about the Supreme Court affirmative action case, of all things:

Half-empty bottle of backwashed room temperature Aquafina Abigail Fisher finally (!) lost her years-long bid to have the Supreme Court recognize her hawkish and pandemic averageness as fucking special.

Read the whole thing. I’m in tears.

Reader Interactions

304Comments

  2. 2.

    Baud

    Antonio Salieri: [to Father Vogel] I will speak for you, Father. I speak for all mediocrities in the world. I am their champion. I am their patron saint.

  4. 4.

    Patricia Kayden

    Very surprised that the Supreme Court decided against Ms. Abigail. Now she knows she didn’t get into U of Texas because she’s mediocre and not because of Black folks.

  6. 6.

    nutella

    @Patricia Kayden:

    Now she everybody knows she didn’t get into U of Texas because she’s mediocre and not because of Black folks.

    She’s famous forever for whiny incompetence.

  13. 13.

    Kay

    I listened to the arguments in the U of M law school case a decade ago and thought the same thing: ” but why do you feel you were robbed?”

    Just objectively didn’t seem particularly unfair.

  15. 15.

    BillinGlendaleCA

    @Baud: I take these videos(and pics) with my selfie stick held over my head; it minimizes me in the pic and provides a really nice perspective(though I do get some strange looks, but that’s SOP).

  16. 16.

    lamh36

    Ok…sorry to go OT so quickly, but, I’m sitting here looking at jobs and I see a job in Hawaii. So I’m like…hey…let me check this out, looked at duties, looked at qualifications, and I was like…ok…

    So then something told me to check to see what the salary conversion in Hawaii for my current salary.

    Based on January ’16 figures…to maintain my current standard of living, I would need to make 2X MORE THAN I CURRENT DO NOW!!!!!

  18. 18.

    BillinGlendaleCA

    @raven: I think there were some close to the beach, I don’t go in the water around these parts(too yucky, too cold).

  19. 19.

    Splitting Image

    @Baud:

    Antonio Salieri: [to Father Vogel] I will speak for you, Father. I speak for all mediocrities in the world. I am their champion. I am their patron saint.

    You could make a very good argument that Fisher has more in common with Mozart than with Salieri, whose only sin was being a foreigner with a job that the elder Mozart thought should belong to a good German boy like his son.

  21. 21.

    hovercraft

    @lamh36:
    It’s crazy, every time house hunters is in Hawaii I’m like damn it’s expensive, and that’s just the housing. The only place houses are reasonable (relatively) is the Big Island. But it is beautiful.

  23. 23.

    piratedan

    @schrodinger’s cat: because thanks to the Bushies, our mid level state and national circuit courts have been polluted with folks sympathetic to the notion that white folks are being oppressed.

  24. 24.

    Cacti

    Salon’s getting in on the fun too:

    “Abigail Fisher’s Supreme Court Loss: A massive blow to mediocre white people coasting on their racial privilege.”

    Abigail Fisher, the plaintiff in the latest round of affirmative action cases heard before the Supreme Court, is the perfect villain in a liberal morality play about the evils of racism.

    Fisher’s case before the Supreme Court, in which she demanded that she be admitted to the University of Texas at Austin despite not having the grades to get in, confirmed every liberal suspicion about the opposition to affirmative action, namely that it’s not about “equality” at all, but about making sure white people are always first in line, ahead of all people of color, for job and education opportunities. That her lawyer, Edward Blum, has made a career out of creative litigation designed to keep people of color from getting jobs, schooling, and even political representation simply confirms it further.

    Link

  26. 26.

    raven

    @BillinGlendaleCA: That wave was pretty much a shore break and it would be tough to ride without breaking your neck. The water is 66, 8 degrees colder than it was in October when I was at Huntington.

  27. 27.

    Adam L Silverman

    @lamh36: The issue for you is, if this is a Federal job, what’s the GS rank with step. Then go and check the locality pay to see what you’d actually get. And you want to make sure they pay relocation too!

  28. 28.

    JMG

    So far, very early to be sure, looks like Britain is voting to leave EU. Never underestimate the hatred of crabby old white people frightened and angry they’re going to die soon. Trump will do way, way better than the polls show on Nov. 7th. PS: I am a 66-year old white person.

  30. 30.

    BillinGlendaleCA

    @raven: I’ve not been to the beach here in over 30 years, though madame and I do like beaches(Hawaii, Tahiti).

    ETA: I’ve figured out how to edit these videos so I may update them with enhanced and edited versions.

  31. 31.

    Anoniminous

    @JMG:

    ~550,000 votes have been counted out of ~32 million. Early innings yet.

    ETA: although “Professor John Curtice has told the BBC that turnout in London seems to be 2 or 3% lower than expected, based on figures in so far.” (guardian) which isn’t a good happening for Remain.

  34. 34.

    Kay

    @schrodinger’s cat:

    It just seems like Kaine is running “here I am with the CTE students! Here’s my statement on Dem unity!”

    I remember this:

    During Tuesday’s debate on the Senate’s immigration bill, Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) took to the floor and launched into an almost 13-minute speech in support of the bill crafted by the bipartisan “Gang of Eight.”
    That’s not the news. The fact that Kaine delivered it in Spanish is, because it’s the first time a senator has delivered a full speech on the floor of the Senate in a language other than English.

  35. 35.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @JMG:

    Lindsay Lohan Verified account
    ‏@lindsaylohan

    @Independent why? prove the UK will not trigger anger by allowing (sunderland) to lower the UK pound – THIS IMPACT WILL CONTROL ALL MARGINS

    Retweets
    499
    Likes
    308

    Speaking of Brexit.

  36. 36.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @JMG: PS: I am a 66-year-old white person who is morally certain you are full of shit on all counts. Consider yourself cordially invited to FOAD.

  39. 39.

    hovercraft

    @schrodinger’s cat:
    The fifth circuit is a nest of wingnuttery, it covers LA, TX, and Mississippi. Of it’s 17 judges 6 are W appointees, 4 St Reagan. The judge who is hearing the case is a wingnut who they shopped for. They made sure to file in Texas so that any appeal would go to the 5th, and then onto the supreme court where they had 5 votes. Opps Scalia is still dead.

  43. 43.

    BillinGlendaleCA

    @raven: Might get a tad wet.

    ETA: OT: My editing isn’t working right, back to the drawing board.

  47. 47.

    Kay

    @schrodinger’s cat:

    Boring is good v Trump. People will be begging for boring. Disruption is over-rated. Freedom’s just another word for nothing left to lose. I’m sure you’re aware of that ancient truth :)

  48. 48.

    JMG

    As the results trickle in, the out of EU vote in Britain gets better and better. I am not trying to be a concern troll here, but I could see the same thing happening in November. Hatred is a far more powerful force than tolerance, emotionally speaking, and in the privacy of the polling place, people are always at their worst.

  49. 49.

    VOR

    Roman Hruska, Senator from Nebraska, speaking about Supreme Court nominee G. Harrold Carswell in 1970: “So what if he is mediocre? There are a lot of mediocre judges and people and lawyers. They are entitled to a little representation, aren’t they? We can’t have all Brandeises, Cardozos, and Frankfurters and stuff like that there.”

  51. 51.

    Kay

    @JMG:

    It’s just that if you’re right and there’s a silent hateful majority who don’t show up in polls there isn’t anything anyone can do about it. Hillary Clinton isn’t going to start hating on immigrants. She won’t be taking any pages out of the Trump playbook. It just kind of goes nowhere.

  52. 52.

    Anoniminous

    In the early go, in overall vote, Leave is doing better and Remain worse than expected.

  53. 53.

    rikyrah

    If your opening sentence about Affirmative Action isn’t
    “White women are its largest beneficiary”
    Then I know that you are not interested in having a serious discussion.

    …………………………………………..

    White women benefit most from affirmative action — and are among its fiercest opponents
    Updated by Victoria M. Massie on June 23, 2016, 12:00 p.m. EST

    The University of Texas Austin was Abigail Fisher’s dream school. Fisher, from Sugar Land, Texas, a wealthy Houston suburb, earned a 3.59 GPA in high school and scored an 1180 on the SATs.

    Not bad, but not enough for the highly selective UT Austin in fall 2008; Fisher’s dreams were dashed when she was denied admission.

    In response, Fisher sued. Her argument? That applicants of color, whose racial backgrounds were included as a component of the university’s holistic review process, were less-qualified students and had displaced her.

    Students graduating in the top 10 percent of any Texas high school are granted an automatic spot at UT Austin. Other students are evaluated through a holistic review process including a race-blind review of essays and creating a personal achievement score based on leadership potential, honors and awards, work experience, and special circumstances that include socioeconomic considerations such as race.

    A few are accepted through provisional slots that include attending a summer program prior to the fall. One black student, four Latino students, and 42 white students with lower scores than Fisher were accepted under these terms. Also rejected were 168 African-American and Latino students with better scores than Fisher.

    ……………………………………………………

    A 1995 report by the California Senate Government Organization Committee found that white women held a majority of managerial jobs (57,250) compared with African Americans (10,500), Latinos (19,000), and Asian Americans (24,600) after the first two decades of affirmative action in the private sector. In 2015, a disproportionate representation of white women business owners set off concerns that New York state would not be able to bridge a racial gap among public contractors.

    A 1995 report by the Department of Labor found that 6 million women overall had advances at their job that would not have been possible without affirmative action. The percentage of women physicians tripled between 1970 and 2002, from 7.6 percent to 25.2 percent, and in 2009 women were receiving a majority of bachelor’s, master’s, and doctoral degrees, according to the American Association of University Women. To be clear, these numbers include women of all races; however, breaking down affirmative action beneficiaries by race and gender seems to be rare in reported data.

  56. 56.

    JPL

    @JMG: It’s not looking good and I feel that you are right. Gosh, Trump wants to weaken NATO and his campaign manager is a shill for Putin. This will not end well.

  57. 57.

    smith

    @JMG: I agree that there are parallels between Trumpism and Ukipism, but am not sure how predictive it might be for our situation. For one thing, all the polls over there said it looked like a very tight race, so it’s not surprising that small things could tip it either way. One interesting correspondence, I think, is that many of the people who vote to be immiserated by their government via Republicans or Tory/Ukip, when the immiseration comes, blame competition and services consumption by immigrants rather than the policies of those they elected.

  58. 58.

    Run, Lillian!

    @Kay:

    I don’t like Kaine, he is barely pro-choice and I am just done with that kind of democrat.

  59. 59.

    pseudonymous in nc

    It rained buckets in London today — utter travel chaos in places — while it was sunny in the crap towns where Leave will get lots of votes. On the one day where the raw numbers count.

    On such things history turns.

  63. 63.

    Technocrat

    @JMG:

    Agreed, but I suspect tolerance for Cranial Fox-Americans will be at an all-time low. Mean voters!

  64. 64.

    Hal

    Fuck her and the white horse she rode in on. Oh, and she also had the option of going to another UT school and then transferring if she met the grade requirements. So yeah, fuck her.

    In 2008, 47 such students were admitted who had lower grades or test scores than Fisher. Forty-two of them were white. Only five were people of color.

    Fisher and her lawyer Blum were not challenging the admission of the 42 white students.

    Instead, Fisher’s argument was narrowly that she should have been admitted instead of one of those students of color. It was the case that collapsed any distinction between opposing affirmative action and demanding that white people be given preference.

  65. 65.

    Kay

    @Run, Lillian!:

    I read that, that he’s a former pro-lifer. I’m torn on that because Marcy Kaptur is one of my faves and she’s Catholic and pro-life. It’s hard to just pitch them under the ‘ol bus if they’re good on other things, although I completely get that people tier issues and if that’s do or die w/you that’s understandable. They always vote w/Democrats so I’m not sure what “pro life” means if you’re a Democrat other than a personal belief.

  66. 66.

    rikyrah

    About the Supreme Court decision with regards to immigration:

    I hope that folks out there understand this.

    1. THIS is the reason that President Obama wanted Comprehensive Immigration Reform passed in Congress. He DOES NOT like to go the Executive Decision route. He would much rather prefer to it be settled IN LAW – not at the WHIMS of whomever occupies 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

    2. THIS is why you need a CONGRESS that will work. So, sniping at the President, or any other Democratic Member of Congress was a waste of time. The ones blocking Comprehensive Immigration Reform have ALWAYS been REPUBLICANS. Your protests and campouts should have been in Mitch McConnell’s and Orange Julius’ offices.

    3. Elections matter. For Congress and Senate – not just President.

    4. Do you see how directly impacted your life is BECAUSE OF THE SUPREME COURT?

    WHY it matters who gets to choose the judges on the Supreme Court.

    If you do not understand what the consequences of a President Trump – not only his existence, but who he would nominate to the Court…

    I’ve got nothing else…

    To me, it’s spelled out, plain as day.

    Folks need to be REGISTERED to vote.
    Folks need to get OUT to vote.
    Folks need to see the importance of voting for CONGRESS and SENATE.

  68. 68.

    Immanentize

    @schrodinger’s cat:

    Question: Why is the Supreme Court even taking up these cases that seem frivolous on the face of it.

    There is really a deep ratfucking behind this case. Longish explanation:

    When Fisher first went to the Supreme Court, it was a version of a right wing wet dream. Justice Kagan had to recuse herself because she had worked on the case when she was in the administration. So the pro-affirmative action folks were already a vote down and Kennedy has never voted in favor of affirmative action ….

    So that’s how it went. The original case was overturned and sent back for further hearings on the question of U T’s rationale (maybe by a strict scrutiny standard) for maintaining a secondary (to the State-mandated 10% graduation rule) race- based system. This is so complicated and hard. But the lower court again found in favor of UT.

    But Fisher graduated from another school, LSU. She had mediocre grades and many many (white) students were in line ahead of her on the merits.

    The real FY was that she graduated from college and in any normal case, this would have been a moot case — the plaintiff no longer had a complaint as she had graduated from another fine school.

    But this was a VRWC case. So the Supreme Court voted to take the same case again — even though their own rules so of generally have decided the case was not woth considering (mootness). Be wise of Kagan — this was the perfect VRWC case because Kagan could not participate. Even if Kennedy jumped ship on the mootness question, the best that could be hoped for was a 4-4 split which would mean, really nothing. But as I mentioned, Kennedy had never before voted to support an affirmative action plan, so the worst case scenario (meaningless result) was odds on the least likely result. Everyone anticipated a 5-3 (Kagan recused) outcome.

    But then Scalia, J. died. Oopsie! And Kennedy did a solid. And therefore today’s amazing, unlikely, decision. Death has a sense of timing better than any comedian.

  69. 69.

    JanieM

    @efgoldman: She applied to UT in 2008. Unless she took a gap decade or two before applying to college, that makes her about 26 now.

  71. 71.

    Ella in New Mexico

    @Patricia Kayden:

    Very surprised that the Supreme Court decided against Ms. Abigail. Now she knows she didn’t get into U of Texas because she’s mediocre and not because of Black folks.

    Well, to be honest, a 3.59 GPA with lots of solid extracurriculars is not “mediocre” by most people’s standards. And while her test scores were not that great, more and more colleges and universities as good as or better than this one are using them less and less in admission decisions.

    In other years, this girl might have gotten in. It’s just that in 2008, UT Austin had 92% of it’s seats taken up by people who graduated in the top 10% of their class, leaving a handful of spaces available for people who didn’t have the magic numbers to get in. That’s UT Austin, that’s the way it does things. It’s actually a great way to encourage students from all backgrounds to apply, because it’s top 10% of each high school class, which means students from predominantly minority or poor areas of the state get a chance, too, and aren’t blocked by all the upper class white schools kids hogging up all the spots.

    And yeah, I feel for any 18 year-old who has worked hard in high school and was under either family or self-inflicted pressure to attend a specific, highly selective school–only to have his or her hopes dashed. At that time, for them, it’s devastating. Kids have attempted suicide for similar “failures”. What she needed was a family and support system that reminded her that her worth was NOT a reflection of what college she attended, and that in fact, life is full of unfair or inexplicable injustices and disappointments. They should have encouraged her to take UTA up on it’s offer to admit her in her sophomore year if she got a 3.2 at another state school

    Instead, I’m guessing the parent’s egos got mingled in her success and they were livid their darling child was turned down when so many “less deserving lessers” got in. The fact that she was essentially convinced into filing such a ridiculous lawsuit reflects how entitled and selfish and, yes, bigoted, her parents are, and they failed her.

    I find it hard to make fun of this young woman. I just feel sad for her wasted time and her missed opportunity to learn some really good lessons about living.

  72. 72.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @Kay:

    People will be begging for boring.

    You will be so bored, you’ll be sick of being bored, that I will tell you. If anyone in this country knows boring, I am that person. I am the most boring person ever, believe me.

  73. 73.

    Immanentize

    @JMG:

    I am not trying to be a concern troll here,

    Hahaha Ha ha. You are killing me you need a venue!

  75. 75.

    JMG

    Britain is voting to leave the EU. Those of you with portfolios, bad day tomorrow. I’d be very much in cash on Nov. 8. The revenge of white losers is going to be the theme of this political year.

  78. 78.

    rikyrah

    Say it with me, boys and girls

    G-R-I-F-T

    I don’t get why this is difficult. Man submits an expense report, and if there are 100 lines listed, 90 have HIS name on it, and you don’t get that this is one long grift?

    That bullshyt about him ‘ forgiving’ the loan he made to the campaign.

    I said it before -the donors weren’t giving shyt for him to repay himself.

    and, if you actually believe he ‘ forgave’ the loan…you deserve to lose whatever monies you give to that con man.

    ………………………………………………………

    What is Left Hand Enterprises and why did the Trump campaign pay it $730,000?
    June 23 at 2:30 PM

    One of the top vendors to Donald Trump’s campaign is a company that formed in Delaware at the end of April.

    On April 25, a new company called Left Hand Enterprises LLC was formed in Delaware, listing its address at an incorporation service provider in Wilmington.

    A few days later, the firm received two big payments totaling $503,133 from Donald Trump’s presidential campaign to print and send a major shipment of direct mail. The campaign cut another $227,504 check to Left Hand Enterprises on May 2, new campaign finance filings show.

    The rapid series of payments — $730,637 over five days — made Left Hand the 10th biggest vendor to the Trump campaign for the entire election cycle. But why it was hired, and what work it provided, remains a mystery even to some top Trump aides.

    The campaign’s use of the mysterious pop-up firm has surfaced at a time of financial tumult for the Trump operation, which began June low on funds and has come under scrutiny for making large reimbursements to his companies.

  79. 79.

    Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism

    @JMG: I think you need to step away for a while. You’re sounding very depressed.

  83. 83.

    JMG

    @Gin & Tonic: I’ve been here for years. Look, the day of election polls forecast an EU stay vote by a lot and it’s getting more obvious the opposite, based on nothing but white nationalist resentment, is happening. To deny that could, not will, but could, happen here is foolish in the extreme.

  85. 85.

    Emma

    @JMG: there are more than 28 million votes to be counted. Would you at least panic when we’re down to 10?

  87. 87.

    schrodinger's cat

    @JMG: Where is here? In the first sentence here, sounds like UK in the last one it sounds like you are referring to the United States. Have you achieved the impossible? Being in two places at the same time?

  91. 91.

    Mnemosyne

    @Ella in New Mexico:

    FWIW, there’s no way her parents weren’t behind this case. I just don’t see an 18-year-old pursuing this lawsuit on her own.

    But the lawyer’s choice to only challenge the admission of the students of color was particularly dickish and clearly pointed up the fact that it was all about white privilege.

  99. 99.

    Origuy

    From The Guardian:

    With 34 authorities declared:

    Leave 1,214,127 votes
    Remain 1,065,771
    Some 16.8 million votes will be needed overall to secure victory, so it is still very early. But leave will be cheered by that symbolic moment.

    There are 382 local authorities, so this is only a small sample. But the trend isn’t good for Remain; the places that were expected to go for Leave by a little bit are going for it by a lot.

  103. 103.

    lamh36

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Federal employees in Hawaii are currently entitled to receive a 12.25% Cost of Living Allowance (COLA) in addition to the base salary. This is subject to change.

    No relocation as written on job listing.

  107. 107.

    Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism

    @Origuy: And turnout is low in London because rain.

    And there’s this quote from the leader of Plaid Cymru:

    “It’s looking as though those areas where there are greatest areas of deprivation and poverty, those areas which are receiving the most amount of money from EU funds are the areas where people are voting in the greatest number to leave.

    “I’m of the view it’s austerity that is at the root of the problem here. People want change and they’ve seen this as an opportunity to get the change they want.”

  108. 108.

    Omnes Omnibus

    If you are on twitter and not following Lindsay Lohan’s Brexit tweets, you r doing it rong.

  110. 110.

    JMG

    Labor party is anonymously telling BBC Leave will win. Dow futures already down nearly 3 percent. People always, always blame the Other for their own problems.

  111. 111.

    Ella in New Mexico

    @Immanentize:

    What’s the distance between pity and mockery?

    Given her age at the inception of her lawsuit and the scum behind it, I just don’t think she deserves the kind of disdain and anger and cruel Twitter hashtags that a rapist who got 6 months for his crime or a crook who jacked up the price of a cheap life-saving drug 750% gets.

    @Mnemosyne

    But the lawyer’s choice to only challenge the admission of the students of color was particularly dickish and clearly pointed up the fact that it was all about white privilege.

    So true, and the facts of the case just scream it, too.

  113. 113.

    Anoniminous

    huh …

    Guardian is saying “Professor Michael Thrasher, the Sky News number cruncher, says that as things stand it looks as if leave is heading for an 12-point lead.”

    this was … unexpected

  115. 115.

    Run, Lillian!

    @Kay:
    Voting is paramount but the language with which democrats discuss abortion is also very important. I don’t want to go back to the ’90s when so many politicians felt like they had to quasi-apologize and qualify their support for abortion rights all the time. Hillary’s recent speech to Planned Parenthood was an unapologetic full throated support of choice. She used the word abortion nine times. I want this kind of fearlessness.
    In a time where our right to choose is being eaten alive at the state level I want unqualified support from democrats for my right to make my own medical decisions. No more squeamish-ness.

  116. 116.

    Immanentize

    @Ella in New Mexico: so you go in for the binary? Some past empathy precludes all future judgment? What about today? What about her statements of deep white resentment and victimization?? Pity maybe. But only years past.

  117. 117.

    JMG

    It’s a complete rout. And the polls were completely wrong. People don’t have the guts to kick up. Kicking down, that they can do. Why anyone thinks that couldn’t happen here escapes me.

  122. 122.

    Anoniminous

    @Baud:

    I don’t believe Leave will win by that much. It would blow every single pre-day poll out of the water. But it does suggest the ~9% Undecideds going in broke heavy for Leave.

  124. 124.

    Splitting Image

    @rikyrah:

    About the Supreme Court decision with regards to immigration:

    I hope that folks out there understand this.

    1. THIS is the reason that President Obama wanted Comprehensive Immigration Reform passed in Congress. He DOES NOT like to go the Executive Decision route. He would much rather prefer to it be settled IN LAW – not at the WHIMS of whomever occupies 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

    2. THIS is why you need a CONGRESS that will work. So, sniping at the President, or any other Democratic Member of Congress was a waste of time. The ones blocking Comprehensive Immigration Reform have ALWAYS been REPUBLICANS. Your protests and campouts should have been in Mitch McConnell’s and Orange Julius’ offices.

    3. Elections matter. For Congress and Senate – not just President.

    4. Do you see how directly impacted your life is BECAUSE OF THE SUPREME COURT?

    WHY it matters who gets to choose the judges on the Supreme Court.

    If you do not understand what the consequences of a President Trump – not only his existence, but who he would nominate to the Court…

    I’ve got nothing else…

    To me, it’s spelled out, plain as day.

    Folks need to be REGISTERED to vote.
    Folks need to get OUT to vote.
    Folks need to see the importance of voting for CONGRESS and SENATE.

    Quoted for emphasis. I can’t add anything to this.

  125. 125.

    Technocrat

    @JMG:

    There’s a huge amount of daylight between “can’t” and “very probably won’t”.

    If you’re really in the more for GloomReality, you could worry about asteroid strikes. At least roaches would survive a Trump Presidency.

  126. 126.

    raven

    London will be key in the eventual outcome and the Remain camp needs a better than expected result on a better than expected turnout.”

  129. 129.

    Anoniminous

    @JMG:

    We don’t know why things are breaking this way. From the Guardian:

    Leanne Wood, the leader of Plaid Cymru … speaking at the count in Cardiff … told the Guardian: “It’s looking as though those areas where there are greatest areas of deprivation and poverty, those areas which are receiving the most amount of money from EU funds are the areas where people are voting in the greatest number to leave.

    “I’m of the view it’s austerity that is at the root of the problem here. People want change and they’ve seen this as an opportunity to get the change they want.”

    Many things going on and we won’t know for a while why they happened.

    ETA: and it’s by no means a Done Deal. Lots of votes yet to count.

  134. 134.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @JMG:

    Jeet Heer ‏@HeerJeet 58s58 seconds ago

    London calling to the faraway towns
    Now war is declared, and battle come down
    1 retweet 1 like

  136. 136.

    schrodinger's cat

    Even if Britain votes to leave the EU it says next to nothing about the Presidential race. Ignore the concern troll, he is just here to sow despair, because Ceiling Cat forbid, we have even one thread where we celebrate small victories.

  138. 138.

    JMG

    I will say this. Turnout in Britain’s election is a little less than 70 percent. If that was the case in the US, the Democrats would never lose an election. Win or lose, neither side there can blame apathy.

  139. 139.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Mnemosyne: It was Edward Blum. He’s very wealthy and runs a project to push conservative issues through the courts. He also pushed the district appropriation case Ewengvall v Abbot (or however you spell the first name).
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/supreme-court-rejects-conservative-bid-to-count-only-eligible-voters-for-districts/2016/04/04/67393e52-fa6f-11e5-9140-e61d062438bb_story.html
    He lost both his cases before the court this year.

  140. 140.

    magurakurin

    @Major Major Major Major: yeah, I don’t have any problem with that at all.

    And whoever Clinton picks is fine by me. It’s her decision and hers alone. I think every nominee deserves that…and she most certainly does. Tim Kaine seems like a very decent man.

  144. 144.

    Adam L Silverman

    @lamh36: send me the link from USAJOBs to my email and I’ll take a look. Sometimes its not apparent.

  151. 151.

    JPL

    @schrodinger’s cat: Not necessarily.. What it shows is those who feel harmed by immigration or the others, turn out to vote, even if it’s the first time. I think it shows that Trump needs to be taken down, and quickly.

  153. 153.

    Immanentize

    @raven: That Sir is what I needed. Also:

    Millions of people swarming like flies ’round Waterloo underground
    But Terry and Julie cross over the river where they feel safe and sound
    And they don’t, need no friends
    As long as they gaze on Waterloo Sunset, they are in paradise
    Waterloo sunset’s fine.

  157. 157.

    Anoniminous

    @rikyrah:

    I’m at the Guardian and Remain just took an overall lead after trailing 2,406,454 Remain to 2,353,452 for Leave.

    Now that we’re getting results outside of the northeast it seems Leave areas are going for Leave bigger than expected and Remain areas bigger than expected for Remain.

    But still early

  159. 159.

    Amir Khalid

    @schrodinger’s cat:
    I read the Grauniad’s liveblog and I don’t get it. The primary is over. Bernie’s quit pestering superdelegates to come over to him. He lost. Why is he talking like there’s still a race going on?

  163. 163.

    JMG

    Kudos to all song quoters here. Good job, gang. As more votes come in, it seems that the areas supposed to vote Leave did so more strongly than forecast, but so have the areas that voted Remain. So the question is, does Britain have hanging chads? ( I know they don’t. Paper ballots only).

  164. 164.

    amygdala

    @lamh36: I live in SF and have lived in NY, DC, and LA. Even if I didn’t have numerous relatives on most of the islands and serious rock fever, I’d never live there. Too expensive.

    Having said that, if you do it, they’ve gotta pay for your move. Shipping stuff there is crazy pricey.

  165. 165.

    Baud

    Given that Cameron has been PM while we’ve had Obama over here, I don’t know why anyone would believe that our two polities are intrinsically entangled.

  169. 169.

    Emma

    @Adam L Silverman: I think there is more to it than that. They are certainly upset about their conditions, but they seem to be angrier at people they think are getting what they shouldn’t, and they will cut off their noses to spite their faces. It’s the same thing that happened in Kentucky. People voted for the man who told them to their faces was going to ruin them because at least Jimmy Bob down the road wouldn’t get the disability check he didn’t deserve.

    I don’t know what can be done against rage and spite.

  170. 170.

    JPL

    @JMG: Earlier today I read that we wouldn’t know until breakfast time in London. I’m not going to stay up for that, but it does appear that Cameron made a mistake in calling for a vote. If for no other reason, than to divide the country.

  171. 171.

    Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism

    Turnouts have been stunning. We wouldn’t know what to do with an 80% turnout.

  172. 172.

    Adam L Silverman

    @schrodinger’s cat: I’m watching the Beeb’s coverage. Alex Salmon was hilarious! And their Welsh reporter had an accent so think he was positively unlistenable too.

  175. 175.

    amygdala

    So it’s London and Scotland versus the rest of the UK? Anyone know how Northern Ireland is expected to go?

  179. 179.

    JMG

    @schrodinger’s cat: If pessimism in response to the facts as known is concern trolling, so be it. If I was wrong, great, I’m happy about it. But to ignore data is much worse than expressing concern about it.

  182. 182.

    magurakurin

    @Baud: Looks more like
    England-London = Kansas of Europe. Pretty sure the Scotts will be able to credibly say…Don’t blame Scotland if the UK leaves and it all goes pear shaped.

  185. 185.

    Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism

    @JMG: Actually, it’s the “This means Trump will wiiiinnnn!” part of your posts that clinch the concern trolling.

    Ever consider changing your nym to Eeyore?

  186. 186.

    CaseyL

    Markets may tank no matter what happens. If there’s anything more fragile, afraid, and prone to destructive panic than an ammosexual, it’s the global financiers.

  188. 188.

    Immanentize

    @JMG: This one’s for you!

    Oh God save history
    God save your mad parade
    Oh Lord God have mercy
    All crimes are paid.

  191. 191.

    Adam L Silverman

    @JPL: And as Alex Salmon said earlier on the BBC: he should have followed the suggestion that all four parts of the United Kingdom had to all vote to leave for leave to pass. He didn’t think that would be necessary.

  192. 192.

    Anoniminous

    “Oxford came in powerfully for remain with a 71% vote – nearly 50,000 out of 70,000 in total.”

    Oxford was a Remain area. Which is following the pattern: Remain going bigger than predicted to say, Leave areas going bigger than predicted to get out.

    ETA: same old/same old

    “Wandsworth has voted for remain by a thumping 75-25 majority on a 72% turnout. There were 118,463 votes for remain and 39,421 for leave.”

    Wandsworth is a Remain area.

  194. 194.

    JMG

    As of now, there’s less than 10,000 votes separating the two sides out of 6.4 million counted. So I guess it will be close at that.

  197. 197.

    Emma

    I wonder what will happen when retired-mom-and-dad show up back home from because their health insurance is no longer reciprocal? Last time I looked there are a smidgen less than 300,000 Brits in Spain alone.

  198. 198.

    lamh36

    Gawd, it’s only 9pm here and I’m tired as hell. I may be going to bed wayy earlier than I have in a long while.

  199. 199.

    JMG

    Serious question for the group. Do they have recounts in British elections? They may need one.

  200. 200.

    Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism

    @Emma: I plan to enjoy the whining, since the pensioners probably voted themselves out of their nice cheap retirement nation.

  201. 201.

    magurakurin

    @amygdala: the article Adam posted is well worth a read. The English could truly be own their own here…for the first time ever.

  203. 203.

    Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism

    @JMG: From the pics I’m seeing on the Guardian liveblog, a recount should be a simple matter in most places. Just go through the ballots and confirm that they’re in the right stacks.

  206. 206.

    Anoniminous

    @JMG:

    From the BBC:

    The referendum rules do not provide for a national recount to be carried out in any circumstances.

    Any request for recounts of votes in the individual counting areas will be decided by the local counting officers.

  208. 208.

    Matt McIrvin

    @JMG: Even if Brexit wins, I think we wait for the final count to see how big a poll miss this is–the polling was really showing the whole thing tight enough that it could go either way.

    The American analogue wouldn’t be Trump, precisely–it’d be some much more canny politician playing Trump’s white-nationalist shtick… to a population significantly whiter than that of the United States. We already know that Trump will win white people; the question is just by how much, and how much non-whites will turn out.

  209. 209.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Anoniminous: This is true. But what are a few race riots between friends? If leave goes through the government falls. No matter what anyone says on the tele tonight. The next parliament and government will have the cover of being new of not being bound by the decision if they don’t want to be. And as mean and callous as it sounds, some race based violence from UKIP, BNP, and Leave supporters may just be the wake up shock that the rest of the English need to realize just what they’re dallying with.

  210. 210.

    Splitting Image

    I personally would like to see the Venn diagram of people voting to leave the EU because the EU Commission is unelected and people who support the English institutions of the monarchy and the House of Lords.

  211. 211.

    Adam L Silverman

    @magurakurin: Alex Salmon has made that point several times already. That had the Labour Party and the Remain Coalition run their campaign in England they way they did it in Scotland, they wouldn’t be looking at this possible result.

  212. 212.

    Anoniminous

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    It is widely expected Cameron will step down (or be pushed out) at the next Tory Party conference in October, if not before. The CW is Boris Johnson will be elected as Tory Leader and then as Prime Minister.

  213. 213.

    Adam L Silverman

    @JPL: I may have the beginning of the respiratory crud/infection going around, and now on the horse sized pills, and a bit out of it/muzzy headed this evening, but timing is everything!

  214. 214.

    rikyrah

    ABC NewsVerified account
    ‏@ABC
    Al Pacino, the Eagles, Mavis Staples, James Taylor among this year’s Kennedy Center honorees

  215. 215.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Emma: And they’re all drunk and very loudly pointing at their glasses and yelling at a waiter: “BEERO!!! BEERO!!!!” because they think that’s making an effort to order in Spanish.

  217. 217.

    BlueDWarrior

    @Anoniminous: So the question then becomes will Boris move with legislation to leave the EU even if that means putting the British union at risk?

  220. 220.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: If its leave, I don’t see how the current government stands. I also don’t see how, if they come in at say 51-49 or even 52-48, that Parliament, whether this one or a future one, doesn’t just slow walk it and ultimately disregard the vote. As one of Labour’s Shadow Minister’s just said on the Beeb: “we didn’t want the referendum, but the Conservatives won the election, so…” If Labour takes over, or even a Labour and someone else coalition, they will just ignore the decision.

  222. 222.

    Mnemosyne

    @Matt McIrvin:

    We already know that Trump will win white people; the question is just by how much, and how much non-whites will turn out.

    This. As I have pointed out multiple times, Romney got a majority of both white men (62 percent) and white women (54 percent) in 2012 and he still lost badly, because you can no longer win the presidency solely with the white vote.

  227. 227.

    Anoniminous

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Unless Remain or Leave wins with a resounding and over-whelming majority (highly unlikely) the UK is for a bit of political chaos no matter which side wins the vote. Both Labour and Tories are going to go through an intensification of the already existing intra-party fighting. Cameron is almost certainly toast no matter what the outcome. If Boris Johnson becomes the Leader of the Tory Party as CW says he will … well … things o’er the pond will get “interesting.”

    If Leave wins Scotland will have another Independence referendum of their own.

    And there’s still the minor matter of Britain’s actual exit from the EU, should Leave win, and the negotiations for its exit, and who – exactly – is going to be on the negotiating team, and who decides, and who heads the negotiating team, and who – exactly – the UK negotiating will negotiate with, and who decides & etc. etc.

    ASSUMING the UK does, actually, Leave. It is only “advisory” after all.

    A massive Charlie Foxtrot will ensue no matter who “wins” tonight.

  228. 228.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Emma: Did you read it in the sound of Sergeant Major in the British Gurkhas? Its better if you do!

  229. 229.

    Fair Economist

    Here’s a forecast based on reports so far from a political researcher at the University of East Anglia:

    Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0%

    Not a typo. Zero percent.

    He provides links to another academic, who also predicts an overwhelming Leave win, and to JPMorgan, which is currently forecasting a narrow Leave win.

  232. 232.

    Adam L Silverman

    @JPL: No. The referendum can’t actually bind Parliament. If there’s a vote for leave the process is going to have to be worked out. I believe that’s covered under Article 51 of the EU agreement or somesuch. They can slow walk the process. And as I expect, if the government falls, the next Parliament has the ability to just ignore the whole thing.

  233. 233.

    Anoniminous

    @BlueDWarrior:

    According to my Brit friends, Boris is a slightly saner version of Trump. For instance, he started off his career making-up lies about the EU as a journalist. If Leaves win he’ll go ahead and do it IMO and let the Scottish chips fall where they may.

  234. 234.

    magurakurin

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Audience members clapped and chanted “Bernie” when he walked on stage. About half gave Sanders a standing ovation.

    “You’ve gotten used to that,” Colbert said. “Sounds awfully good,” Sanders replied.

    He’s drunk on the applause.

    And this report probably makes it sound better than it actually was when he returned to the Senate.

    Bernie want’s me to keep my sense of outrage? Okay, I will, outrage directed at him.

    Bernie comes back to the Senate with a police escort and sirens wailing. Gets in a tussle with Kristen Gillibrand and announces he wants Patty Murray’s position as head of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions committee. Why in the fuck, exactly, should Patty Murray, a solid, solid liberal in the Senate, have to give her position to Sanders? So, do we now know that Carly Simon wrote “You’re so Vain” for Bernie?
    And now the next big step for the revolution, Bernie is off to campaign for a California state senate candidate. Complete with Secret Service escort, of course. Yeah, like, there aren’t any other more important elections about to happen than a California State Senate seat.
    And with 40% of the revolution now voting for Trump or Johnson, yeah, I’m just not seeing what Bernie is bringing to the table here.

  236. 236.

    different-church-lady

    @Adam L Silverman: And every Thursday night there’s a bloody cabaret in the bar featuring some tiny emaciated dago with nine-inch hips and some big fat bloated tart with her hair brylcreemed down and a big arse presenting Flamenco for Foreigners. And then some adenoidal typists from Birmingham with diarrhoea and flabby white legs and hairy bandy-legged wop waiters called Manuel, and then, once a week there’s an excursion to the local Roman ruins where you can buy cherryade and melted ice cream and bleedin’ Watney’s Red Barrel, and one night they take you to a local restaurant with local colour and colouring and they show you there and you sit next to a party of people from Rhyl who keeps singing ‘Torremolinos, Torremolinos’ and complaining about the food – ‘Oh! It’s so greasy isn’t it?’ and then you get cornered by some drunken greengrocer from Luton with an Instamatic and Dr Scholl sandals and last Tuesday’s ‘Daily Express’ and he drones on and on and on about how Mr. Smith should be running this country and how many languages Enoch Powell can speak and then he throws up all over the Cuba Libres…

  237. 237.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Anoniminous: Yep to everything. I don’t think Salmon will push the Scottish Independence vote right away. He’s too shrewd for that – he’s going to wait and see what happens, especially as petroleum prices don’t provide an independent Scotland with as much security as they would have a few years ago. What this shows is what everyone outside the Tories who supported him already know: Cameron is dumb as a stump and a terrible strategist and tactician. He should never have done this as a way to try to paper over his parties differences were.

  238. 238.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Baud: If Brexit, then Scottish independence is in play again. I also wonder, given N.I.’s Stay vote, if Brexit would generate any movement for Irish unification. .

  240. 240.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @magurakurin: And now the next big step for the revolution, Bernie is off to campaign for a California state senate candidate.

    The gap between his rhetoric and actual efforts on behalf of actual “change” would be laughable if so many people didn’t take him as seriously as he takes himself.

  241. 241.

    Anoniminous

    “Remain now has over 1 million votes in Scotland. With just 8 results to go …”

    Scotland IndyRef 2 in … 10 … 9 … 8 …

  242. 242.

    JMG

    It’s Article 50 of the EU constitution. But don’t forget the other side of the equation. The sentiment in Germany, France and Spain, three of the four biggest countries in the EU is. “you voted out, you’re out. Don’t let the door hit your ass. Bye now.” They will inflict as much pain as possible. I’m sure German and French banks will be seeking to get the big US firms to relocate from London if Leave wins, and that’s just one example.

  243. 243.

    Adam L Silverman

    @schrodinger’s cat: I have two kukris. Supposedly I have three, but Brigadier T. never managed to get it to me (he was so apologetic, he didn’t bring enough from Nepal, not realizing he’d have more than one supervisor, but promised to send one back to me). I have one from Brigadier P. and one from Brigadier H. And a great honor it was to receive them from those fine gentlemen! Three of my favorite people. Absolutely lovely folks as are their families.

  244. 244.

    Fair Economist

    @mdblanche: Yeah, the models are all showing Leave wins now. You have to be skeptical to some extent because obviously there’s no way to verify a model on a once-off referendum, but it’s certainly strong evidence.

    BTW, the Guardian detailed results map has an awesome map that lets you make some sense of the laundry list of names. It’s one of these area-by-vote maps. You can see immediately that London and Scotland are strongly Remain and the rest of the country is *mostly* Leave. One fact that may be affecting the models’ predictions is that Scotland is already mostly in.

  246. 246.

    Anoniminous

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Agree.

    According to friends in the UK, Cameron didn’t have a choice. It was either promise and run a referendum or face a backbench revolt.

  248. 248.

    Patricia Kayden

    @Ella in New Mexico: Had Ms. Abigail won her case, a whole lot of Black students would have been irreparably damaged for generations to come. Don’t give a dang about any mockery going her way. She deserves it for filing such a ridiculous case. Basically she was saying F you to the Black students who she feels got her spot at U of Texas. Her entitlement complex was massive.

  249. 249.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Fair Economist: Somebody at Murdoch’s Sky TV was predicting a 12-point margin for Leave on the basis of very early reports, which I suspect was one of the things making JMG sad. Because that would be a truly gigantic polling miss–the late HuffPo was maybe Remain +0.5, and if you then assume by the crudest possible analogy that US presidential election polls are off by twelve and a half points in Hillary’s direction, everything’s coming up Trump.

    I’m not sure where that 12-point prediction was coming from, though–so far Leave is leading by about one and a half points, though it may be that more of the vote that’s still out is from pro-Leave rural areas.

  251. 251.

    Fair Economist

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    If Brexit, then Scottish independence is in play again. I also wonder, given N.I.’s Stay vote, if Brexit would generate any movement for Irish unification.

    I’ve seen a lot of speculation in the British press today to exactly that effect. Some Remain campaigners are now accusing the pro-Scottish-Independence but pro-Remain SNP of sandbagging in hopes of just that result (as an independent Scotland could stay EU and they’d get everything they want). As usual, victory has many parent and failure is an orphan.

  254. 254.

    Anoniminous

    @amk:

    Nope. If the UK votes to Leave the EU Scotland will have another Independence referendum. The only question is the date and that will be when the SNP leadership and activists think they can win it.

    From SCOT goes POP (a SNP supporter site):

    There may yet be a joker in the pack tonight, as there was in the 1997 Welsh devolution referendum when the BBC briefly forecast No as the winners, only for Carmarthenshire to completely buck the national trend and carry Yes over the line with an overwhelming vote. But at the moment, Leave appear to be the more likely winners. We heard strong indications from Brian Taylor earlier (at a point when it still looked like Remain would coast to victory) that in the event of a vote to withdraw, Nicola Sturgeon would at least very quickly demand that Westminster gives Scotland the power to hold an early referendum if it so chooses.

    I don’t know about the rest of you, but I hope there’s no backtracking on that plan – I think that’s absolutely what’s got to happen. Voters were told in 2014 that if they voted No, they were voting to remain EU citizens. They duly voted No. Today, Scotland voted by a more than ‘decisive’ margin (to use the approved BBC word for anything north of 54%) to remain EU citizens. We must now be allowed to remain EU citizens. If that doesn’t happen, it would be a democratic outrage – it’s as simple as that.

  256. 256.

    Fair Economist

    @Matt McIrvin:

    I’m not sure where that 12-point prediction was coming from, though–so far Leave is leading by about one and a half points, though it may be that more of the vote that’s still out is from pro-Leave rural areas.

    That guy is the *other* academic who is linked to from my link above. The details are in his model, which doesn’t seem to be published. To my casual eye, it seems implausible. The swings I’ve seen seem to be roughly in the neighborhood of the Remain advantage in the last poll, which would make me guess the JP Morgan prediction for a narrow Leave win is best. But obviously the academics have Vastly more info and knowledge than I do – I’m just looking at “surprise estimates” on the newspaper sites.

  257. 257.

    Anoniminous

    @Adam L Silverman:

    They just had an election in May 2015 and anyway they’ve changed their rules and the PM just can’t do that whenever he feels like it anymore.

  258. 258.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Omnes Omnibus: Maybe this is my own prejudices toward my ancestors speaking, but I’m guessing Northern Ireland’s Unionists are going to be an overwhelming Leave vote.

  259. 259.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Anoniminous: All they have to do is change the Parliamentary Election Law, which would just take a majority vote. So yes, but it could be done.

  262. 262.

    Jeffro

    @Ella in New Mexico:

    I just feel sad for her wasted time and her missed opportunity to learn some really good lessons about living.

    Like…learn to move on after life’s little (or big) disappointments? Hopefully she’s got a good grasp of that one now.

    It’s crazy. It doesn’t matter where you go to college, as long as a) you go, b) go with some sort of purpose or goal in mind, and even then, c) keep moving.

  263. 263.

    James E Powell

    @Immanentize:

    Preserving the old ways from being abused
    Protecting the new ways for me and for you
    What more can we do
    God save the Village Green.

  264. 264.

    Fair Economist

    @Adam L Silverman:

    And yet Scotland is going to vote majority for remain. Almost 2/3 remain to 1/3 leave.

    Yeah, good point. I think “failure is an orphan” may have more to do with attempts to blame the SNP than actual performance. Amusingly, at the beginning I saw several tweets and opinion pieces that Corbyn would pay a political price for pushing Remain and should have been more neutral. But *now* he’s being criticized for being too “bloodless” in his support for Remain.

  266. 266.

    JMG

    @schrodinger’s cat: I agree with this sentiment. And US and UK politics are very different, as was proved in 1992 when Tory John Major won his election but Democrat Bill Clinton won his a few months later. But it should be considered that white voters here will go far more strongly for Trump than they did for Romney. Of course, Trump’s misogyny is a factor a referendum doesn’t have.
    But this election does show that prejudice will lead people to screw themselves over, not that this was unknown before.

  267. 267.

    mdblanche

    The pound is down 8% now, exceeding its biggest one day loss during the financial crisis.

  269. 269.

    different-church-lady

    @JMG:

    And US and UK politics are very different

    It’s weird. It’s almost as if they were separate countries.

  270. 270.

    Miss Bianca

    @lamh36: I could go for a BJ meet-up in Hawaii – ‘course, I would need a couple years to save up for it…poor NotMax! ; )

  271. 271.

    Adam L Silverman

    The Tory MP on the Beeb right now has got the upper class, Oxbridge condescending thing down pat. The Labour Shadow Foreign Secretary keeps explaining reality to him, but the Tory MP has drunk the kool-aid.

  272. 272.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @schrodinger’s cat: Among other things, it would set a very bad precedent for an organization (in its various prior forms) that was designed to decrease the chances of war in Europe. As Cheryl Rofer described it, and I paraphrase: European history – war, war, war, war, war, war, arguing about bananas.

  273. 273.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Mnemosyne:

    This. As I have pointed out multiple times, Romney got a majority of both white men (62 percent) and white women (54 percent) in 2012 and he still lost badly, because you can no longer win the presidency solely with the white vote.

    Well, you could, but only by winning whites with extraordinary, unprecedented-in-modern-history, supra-Nixon-’72 margins. And it’s hard to imagine how Trump could do that, especially given the size of his gender gap.

    Trump could still win if he gets some boost from unpredictable events, in part because Hispanics don’t hate him quite as much as you might expect–he’ll probably get about a crazification-factor of them, like Romney. But I don’t see some shy-Trumpster effect wiping out his deficit if he’s as behind in November as he is now. People theorized about the Bradley Effect endlessly with Obama vs. McCain and Obama vs. Romney and it didn’t happen–the national polls actually had a modest bias toward Romney in ’12, and the aggregated state polling was dead on both times. I think there are enough checks that we’re probably not going to have an enormous surprise unless it’s super-close.

  275. 275.

    Miss Bianca

    @Kay: Wait, Kaine’s Twitter feed says that Ralph Stanley just died?? Could this be true?

    I know, I know…way to miss the point…

  276. 276.

    Adam L Silverman

    @amk: Are they still allow to propose legislation and vote on it in Parliament? Then they could if they needed to. But I take your meaning about the politics of it and the difficulties.

  277. 277.

    Splitting Image

    @schrodinger’s cat:

    What does it matter anyway in the larger scheme of things, what Britain does. Its no longer the most important country in Europe, forget the world.

    Wait’ll UKIP wins the next election and votes to return Canada, India, and Australia to colonial status. You’ll see who’s the most important country in the world.

  280. 280.

    JMG

    If you’ve ever wanted to visit Britain, see the sights in London, play a little golf in Scotland, well, the prices will never be cheaper than they’ll be tomorrow morning. Brexit.dot Yeah!

  282. 282.

    I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet

    @Major Major Major Major: Kaine is a good guy.

    Ed Kilgore at NY Mag:

    On second thought, is he? An article this week in The Hill calls abortion policy Kaine’s one big “weakness.” Like many observant Catholic Democrats over the years, Kaine’s mantra on reproductive rights is that while he’s “personally opposed” to abortion, he’s largely inclined to keep the law out of women’s reproductive decisions. Yes, he’s favored parental-notification laws, but has carefully insisted on ensuring young women in danger of parental pressure to carry a pregnancy to term will have a judicial workaround. Yes, he’s favored bans on so-called “partial-birth abortions,” but only with exceptions where the health of the mother is at risk, which separates him from the entire anti-abortion movement, which uniformly hates health exceptions. He has a 100 percent rating of his votes in the Senate from Planned Parenthood. His policy positions on abortion may not be ideal to reproductive-rights advocates, but they are acceptable, particularly if the top spot on the ticket is occupied by an old friend like Hillary Clinton.

    […]

    Could Kaine’s stance actually become a strength if the ticket spans those adopting the traditional formula along with those embracing the rapidly emerging positive attitude toward abortion itself?

    That’s not an easy question for Democrats to answer. It may be worth noting that Kaine has shown some exceptional skill in dealing with hot-button issues involving his religion in the past. During the 2005 gubernatorial election in Virginia, Kaine’s Republican opponent, Jerry [no relation!] Kilgore, made the Democrat’s faith-based opposition to the death penalty a central feature of his whole campaign. Kaine turned it around by arguing that the same faith that led him to oppose the death penalty would keep him from breaking his oath to faithfully enforce Virginia law, even if it involved executions. By most accounts, Kaine won that argument, and did so without abandoning or refusing to talk about his own convictions.

    Kaine was a fairly liberal governor (by some measures) in a fairly conservative state (by some measures) and did well.

    He takes his faith seriously, but he doesn’t impose it on anyone else.

    I think he takes seriously the old adage “If you don’t like abortions, don’t have one.” IOW, he can separate his private beliefs from the conviction that others must have the liberty to make their own decisions.

    Cheers,
    Scott.
    (Who doesn’t think Hillary will pick him, myself.)

  284. 284.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet: the only bad thing I’ve heard about Kaine is his endorsement from Mark Warner (which I don’t blame Kaine or Clinton for). But I really hope she doesn’t pick a boring white guy. And I am a boring white guy.

  286. 286.

    Miss Bianca

    @Amir Khalid:

    I read the Grauniad’s liveblog and I don’t get it. The primary is over. Bernie’s quit pestering superdelegates to come over to him. He lost. Why is he talking like there’s still a race going on?

    Oh, I don’t know…could it be…DELUSION?

  287. 287.

    Miss Bianca

    @raven: If you’re going to quote Richard Thompson on top of the Kinks I an going to be blowing you air kisses all night! What about this one, for that particular correspondent:

    Those hard luck stories are all I ever get from you
    Hard luck stories, they’re going to drive me out of my mind…

  289. 289.

    SRW1

    @Adam L Silverman:

    The Tory MP on the Beeb right now has got the upper class, Oxbridge condescending thing down pat.

    Mr Jacob Rees-Mogg is the son of the late William Rees-Mogg, also known as Baron Rees-Mogg of Hinton Blewett. Of course young Jacob is a toff.

  292. 292.

    I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet

    @Anoniminous: My (possibly faulty) recollection is that some big-wig at the EU was saying an independent Scotland would have a tough time gaining EU membership. I don’t recall the reasoning (I’m sure part of it was to discourage an independence vote), but I wouldn’t think that the EU would be chomping at the bit to get involved in the possible breakup of the UK. It seems foolish to me for Scotland to think that they’d nearly automatically get EU membership after declaring independence.

    Things don’t move quickly with the EU in the best of circumstances…

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  293. 293.

    SRW1

    @SRW1:

    And to follow up on Mr Rees-Mogg’s toff status, there is this hilarious part of his Wikipedia entry:

    At the 1997 general election, Rees-Mogg was the Tory candidate for the solidly Labour seat of Central Fife and attracted ridicule after canvassing a largely working-class neighbourhood with his nanny; on election night he came third, gaining 9% of the votes cast, slightly fewer than half of the votes won by the previous Conservative candidate in 1992. However, rumours that he had gone around the constituency in a Bentley were described as “scurrilous” − he insisted it had been a Mercedes.

  295. 295.

    Matt McIrvin

    Northern Ireland goes for Remain, though not overwhelmingly. That kind of surprised me.

    And that brings it back down to Leave +2, after a few hours when it was wider. This is clearly not going to be the rout that some of the early projections were stating–Leave is probably going to win, but it’ll be a close vote. Not the gigantic polling miss people were speculating about earlier.

  298. 298.

    I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet

    @efgoldman: Also too, Trump only won 44.9% of the GOP primary vote. He only won a majority of the delegates because of their “winner take all” system. Why anyone thinks that he’s going to have larger numbers than Rmoney (52.1% of the GOP primary vote) in the General, when he couldn’t even win a majority of his own party’s voters, is beyond me.

    Cheers,
    Scott.
    (“Math, how does it work?”)

  299. 299.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @Matt McIrvin: Just on the basis of the old tribal grudges I’d have expected Ulster to plump heavily for Leave. One wonders what will happen when the EU transfer payments literally “go south.” Because, unlike the Scots, the Six Counties have a direct & obvious path back into the EU (dare we call it The Point of NI Return?)–if the politicos in Dublin are astute enough to hammer out a viable federative arrangement that would tempt them into the Irish Republic. A 32-county Ireland…one can dream.

    Add to that the extant Hibernian agitation for independence & a few years from now we could be talking about the Untied Kingdom.

  304. 304.

    Tehanu

    @Paul in KY:

    Ever listened to any Salieri? I’m very fond of his music. He was really quite good — he just wasn’t as good as Mozart.

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