The S&P 500 has fallen more tonight than it has following any U.S. election in many decades.
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) June 24, 2016
What a week! Good thing it’s Friday, eh?
NYTimes: “Britain Votes to Leave E.U.; Cameron Says He Plans to Step Down”
Britain has voted to leave the European Union, a historic decision sure to reshape the nation’s place in the world, rattle the Continent and rock political establishments throughout the West.
Not long after the vote tally was completed, Prime Minister David Cameron, who led the campaign to remain in the bloc, appeared in front of No. 10 Downing Street to announce that he planned to step down by October, saying the country deserved a leader committed to carrying out the will of the people…
It was a remarkable victory for the country’s anti-Europe forces, which not long ago were considered to have little chance of prevailing.
Financial markets, which had been anticipating that Britain would vote to stay in, started plunging before the vote tally was complete, putting pressure on central banks and regulators to take steps to guard against a spread of the damage. Economists had predicted that a vote to leave the bloc could do substantial damage to the British economy…
Wow. This says volumes about #Brexit voters. HT @mikeclay pic.twitter.com/vDO1CX5Y3y
— Weh Yeoh (@wmyeoh) June 24, 2016
If only the Brits could have had the referendum they really wanted. pic.twitter.com/IYBVG3LCDE
— ian bremmer (@ianbremmer) June 24, 2016
Sounds vaguely familiar, dunnit?
So, weirdly, the more that the UK suffers from Brexit, the less appetizing Trump appears, even if it causes a US economic slowdown.
— Daniel Drezner (@dandrezner) June 24, 2016
This assumes Americans will connect #Brexit-like policies to Trump. Which, given the current moment, is probably too optimistic of me. #fin
— Daniel Drezner (@dandrezner) June 24, 2016
Brexit is Britain's Trump: A way to vent your rage against the status quo by taking big, unspecified risks. https://t.co/IS3MJQoTfB
— Josh Barro (@jbarro) June 23, 2016
Take a breath; the exit won’t happen overnight…
A reminder Brexit is non binding. Parliament must approve. MPs largely oppose. With £ in freefall, potentially not political suicide.
— Glenn Fleishman (@GlennF) June 24, 2016
Per the Guardian:
… Cameron has vowed if there is a Brexit vote he will trigger article 50, the part of the Lisbon treaty that sets in train a two-year process whereby a member state can notify the EU council of its decision to leave.
Constitutionally, the triggering of article 50 is a decision for him alone, not parliament, since it is a matter of the royal prerogative. At the same time, nothing can stop parliament passing a motion that seeks to instruct him not to trigger article 50.
Cameron’s statement that he would trigger article 50 was in part made to dramatise the irreversibility of Brexit. This starts a two-year negotiation with the EU that must end with the UK’s ejection, unless the union unanimously agrees to extend the negotiations at the two years’ end.
The UK then formally leaves once a deal – which requires the support of the UK and a “qualified majority” of the remaining 27 member states (specifically, 20 of them, comprising at least 65% of their population) is struck…
I've seen plenty of betting markets on the Brexit referendum outcome, but now would like to see some on the odds UK actually exits.
— Billmon (@billmon1) June 24, 2016
Major Major Major Major
eh, Europe had a good run.
rikyrah
Good Morning ?, Everyone ?
Major Major Major Major
Oh, and here’s my cat being adorably mopey about it. https://imgur.com/a/yOu4F
Baud
It’s like we’re daring people to vote for Trump.
Not gonna check the old 401(k) today.
Viva BrisVegas
Opposing Brexit is indeed political suicide. The PM is going. There is no way that Parliament will not follow through on the referendum. None at all.
What will be interesting is the negotiations with the EU, as Britain, sorry England, tries to negotiate its exit from the EU while maintaining as much market access as possible. They better bring some knee pads with them.
What they will end up with is the same old EU regulation so as to trade in Europe, but without any say over that regulation.
Aqualad08
I’m just glad it’s finally over…
Soooo, what’s for Brexit? Er, Breakfast… DAMN IT…
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
The outcome in the Brexit vote is very much in doubt.
We need to be patient and wait until ALL the provisional and absentee votes are counted in California before rushing to coronation.
Moreover, even when the vote is fully counted, it doesn’t include the Super Delegates who WILL NOT vote on Brexit until the end of July.
Those are the facts, people.
Botsplainer, Neoliberal Corporate Shill
Dear financial elites: you wrought this. Trickle down is a great phrase and could work if you actually do it. If you don’t, far left and far right will take great risks in a hellish combo and fuck your shit up.
Jeff Spender
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: There was voter suppression! People who were not properly registered did not get to vote!
This isn’t a democracy!
GregB
Turn those machines back on.
Did Cameron and his Torie tools do their best to disenfranchise minority voters like our wingnuts did over here?
Would be ironic.
Cat48
This was a really reckless action by the British, since the US has had a “special relationship” for decades with them. They just ignored us & all I get is a wrecked 401k. Sigh
RK
Survey is here.
MattF
Gawd. I was already holding my breath until November– Maybe I’ll just go into hibernation for an unspecified period of time. “Wake me when it’s over.”
magurakurin
@Baud: I just changed my buy orders for a lower strike price. Gonna be some decent bargains out there today. This is panic selling.
magurakurin
@Viva BrisVegas:
exactly.
Baud
@magurakurin: Probably right. Hard to believe that much of the value of our stock market is tied to Europe’s political structure.
OzarkHillbilly
@Botsplainer, Neoliberal Corporate Shill:
I have to say that “slightly reduced dividends” doesn’t really qualify as “fucking their shit up”.
magurakurin
@Cat48: Don’t worry about your 401k, any loses will be recovered in short order. Short term traders will be selling but anyone in the long term should just close their eyes for a week or two. Or add to your investment if you have the cash.
OzarkHillbilly
Ralph Stanley, RIP
Keith G
@rikyrah: Some might not agree.
I am hoping that the stupidity that is the Brexit vote will have at least one decent outcome. It is undoubtedly true that globalism and reduction of trade barriers creates great opportunities for the societies participating in such movement. It is equally clear that parts of those societies suffer as this process continues.
My hope is that now more attention will be paid to those folks being hurt by this new era of capitalism. After the worldwide financial crisis (caused by American banking), the British government embarked on a policy of austerity. That policy of austerity helped to feed in the discontent which was a prime motor in the motivation to vote for Brexit.
The needs of the formerly well-compensated laboring classes need to be addressed and not ignored or worse mocked.
magurakurin
@Baud: It isn’t. But short term traders live and die by volatility.
Mustang Bobby
According to John Itsy on NPR, the fall of the stock futures is back to where it was a couple of weeks ago before they went through the roof in the run-up to the vote because they thought Remain would win.
And someone explain to me why MSNBC would carry live shots of Donald Trump arriving in Scotland, as if it really matters what that Hair Furor has to say about it?
Cat48
@magurakurin:
That sounds good. Thanks for the reassurance.
Baud
@Mustang Bobby: Because it’s MSNBTrump.
Keith G
@Mustang Bobby: Maybe because it is the most important international/economic news item of the week and Donald Trump is trying to be president?
GregB
@Mustang Bobby:
Because MSNBC is the official ball-cupping network for Donald Trump.
Baud
I’ve seen suggestions that the vote is partly the result of Cameron’s domestic opponents seeking to screw him over.
raven
@OzarkHillbilly: I’ll Fly Away
Singular
I have awoken to a world of piss and shit.
Scotland now out of the EU, with the next PM a fanatical right-wing loon who poses as a bumbling clown. If were you guys, I would be scared. You’re looking at the strength of worldwide fuck-the-establishment feeling, and the efficacy of blaming everything on migrants. President Trump might just be the cherry on top of the shitcake that is 2016.
Baud
@Singular: That’s why Trudeau lost badly in Canada.
Schlemazel Khan
@OzarkHillbilly:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xmRWj7gJEU
RIP the high lonesome
I knew I screwed up as soon as I hit return but, too late then. Need coffee
OzarkHillbilly
@Mustang Bobby: Simple: Train wrecks. No matter where the Donald goes, you know that sooner or later blood will flow. This time some of it is likely to be his.
Schlemazel Khan
@OzarkHillbilly:
RIP the high lonersome
opiejeanne
@Baud: Ok, that remark made me feel better.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
People just won’t admit racism exists.
I saw famed correspondents Christiane Amanpour and Christopher Dickey, both based in europe, state the campaign wasn’t on economics but fear and hatred of immigrants.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
It wouldn’t surprise me for this to be the beginning of the end of the UK.
What was I saying last night about the tears of the pensioners who won’t be able to live in their cheap Spanish retirement homes once reciprocity goes away?
Schlemazel Khan
@RK:
The only really surprising part is how large the percentages are. We knew is base was nuts I just didn’t know that was all he had or how deep the crazy went
OzarkHillbilly
@raven: O Death.
Keith G
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Racism (and its distant cousin otherism) always has and always will exist. Or as Avenue Q put it, “Everyone’s a little bit racist.” What happens during times of economic unrest is that those harboring the most unfettered racist notions feel permission to let them play out in the public square and others feel less motivated to confront them.
Singular
@Baud: Canadians are far more reasonable than our countrymen & women. Although they did elect Rob Ford…
Bruce K
Over in Greece, the stock markets are apparently nosediving again, there’s worry about what Brexit will do to tourism from the UK (tourism is kind of Greece’s lifeline), and the Golden Dawn party, the resident neo-Nazis, have offered congratulations to the Leave campaign.
And when I voiced an opinion about the mess on Twitter, I got a response that “if you losers had gotten 1% more of the vote, you wouldn’t be whining so much today”. As if I had any say at all in this charlie-foxtrot.
Bah humbug, and somebody’s cruising to get his head flattened by a dictionary today.
amk
It would be interesting to see the turnout percentage of yung’uns, who have to live this decision the most. A lesson to all young voters in all democracies.
Baud
If the young people and the business people overwhelmingly don’t want to leave the EU, I’m skeptical about whether the two year separation process actually comes to fruition.
Brachiator
@Viva BrisVegas:
But leaving the EU comes with a sting. From the Guardian:
There is talk about following the Norway option, participation in most EU rules without the ability to vote on EU policy, but would that really be acceptable?
rikyrah
@RK:
Not one iota surprises me
Baud
@Keith G:
I disagree. In times of economic unrest, people voted for FDR, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama. It’s when things start to improve that the racists really come out to capture a greater share of the gains. The Klan was much stronger in the Roaring 20s than the Depression era.
Baud
@Singular: I don’t know. Canada had Harper for the longest time.
Keith G
@Baud: An interesting discussion which would be fun to have. As I am now slipping on my shoes and trying to get down my last bit of coffee before leaving for work, we might want to have this some other time.
amk
@Keith G: The kenyan got elected during the 2008 melt down.
eta: baud beat me to it. fu, baud.
Botsplainer, Neoliberal Corporate Shill
@Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism:
It always comes down to old white people voting their prejudice over their economic interests and then being surprised at the results.
Maybe white olds should have their votes suppressed for the good of all…
Baud
One thing I never understood about the immigration issue in England. Even after they leave the EU, won’t they continue to have lax immigration laws with respect to Commonwealth countries?
opiejeanne
@Botsplainer, Neoliberal Corporate Shill: Hey now, you’d be suppressing the votes of at least half of the people here.
What’s kind of amusing and ironic is the number of British ex-pats in Spain voting to leave because they think there are too many foreigners in Britain.
Elizabelle
@Mustang Bobby:
Because they’re money whores. What do Hugh Hewitt or Andrea Greenspan have to say about it?
Baud
@Elizabelle: What’s the reaction in Barcelona, foreign correspondent Elizabelle?
sm*t cl*de
The English have expressed their pent-up frustration against years of right-wing austerity and economic inequality by ensuring a change to a more more right-wing, inquality-worshipping government.
Brachiator
@Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism:
Very possible. There are calls for a second vote for Scottish independence.
amk
@Baud: Forget the CW, what about irish and scots in good ole england now?
Keith G
@amk: There were a lot of collaborating factors at play during that election cycle. Not the least of which were other candidates damaged by previous activities. This entire conversation is fraught with examples and counter examples which is why I think it would be a fun and interesting conversation to have.
Baud
@amk: It all went downhill after they let in the Normans.
JMG
Each country’s politics are different. Each election in each country is different. Referendums are the most different of all. Voting to leave or stay in the EU, which in reality has a very minor impact on the lives of most British citizens, is not equivalent to choosing a specific person to be a national leader. The consequences of the choice are harder to see, which makes it easier to use it to vent one’s spleen. The people of California didn’t know how Prop. 13 would affect the state’s economy and social structure when they voted for it. They were just mad about admittedly drastic property tax increases in many places.
Elizabelle
@Baud: One of my flatmates is a 21-year old Briton, studying international relations, and she reported her Facebook feed is full of her friends despairing the decision. They’re all shocked.
Generational divide, and she thinks it’s unfair to have such a major decision made by those who won’t have to live under it all that long (demographically speaking).
As for Barcelona proper: have not been out on the streets yet, but going out in a few and will report anything interesting. Mostly, I’d guess people here are glad to have a day off. Bank holiday here (Feast of St. Joan aka John the Baptist bday AND pretty much summer solstice fireworks parties last night).
FWIW, people here are horrified by Trump’s prominence. They can’t believe Americans could be so stupid …
Baud
In better news, Led Zeppelin won, found not to have stolen Stairway to Heaven.
Baud
@Elizabelle:
Technically we aren’t…yet.
Don’t Europeans understand that both sides are the same?
OzarkHillbilly
@Elizabelle:
They don’t meet many Republicans I guess.
sm*t cl*de
@Brachiator:
The Scots voted to remain within the United Kingdom on the understanding that they would thereby remain within the EU. Perfidious Albion has reneged on that part of the deal.
I was going to say “welched on the deal”, but I cannot face dealing with the Welsh Anti-Defamation crowd.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
there is economic anxiety, but there is separate unrelated cultural anxiety and resentment.
Did the south flip because of economic anxiety or because blacks got to eat at restaurants.
Did Mike Dukakis blow a 17 pt lead cuz of economics or because of willie horton ads.
In 1996, the economy was booming: did DOMA pass because of economics or because of hate.
sm*t cl*de
@Botsplainer, Neoliberal Corporate Shill:
old white people voting their prejudice over their economic interests and then
being surprised atfinding someone else to blame for the resultsFiqqzed.
Elizabelle
@Baud: Suspect a lot of Europeans are a lot sadder and wiser than Americans. I look at the older folks here and think “they lived under Franco, for years and years and years.” I would love to be able to speak in a more sophisticated manner (albeit, they would be speaking Catalan, many of them!)
One of my classmates is a Swedish executive. His father immigrated to Stockholm from Catalunian region of Spain, after spending a year or two unhappily forced into Franco’s armies, and was never able to vote until he was 56 years old. So grateful for the opportunity to do so, and my friend is an awesome and intelligent citizen. He mentioned he does not understand why we don’t pay a bit more in taxes to have better services, since there are so many of us. (We forget that one reason for Sweden’s high taxes is that there are just plain fewer taxpayers.)
Why not indeed, if our taxes actually went to infrastructure and education and the common good? (A lot do, some do not…)
Mustang Bobby
Quote of the Day from Winston Churchill:
ed_finnerty
@RK: 40% of hispanics and 30% of blacks believe that discrimination against white people is as big a problem as discrimination against non-whites. Sorry, must be flawed methodology.
PaulWartenberg2016
Well That About Wraps It Up For God.
Mai.naem.mobile
Jeezus, Trump is a moron. Does the fool realize that the Scots voted to stay? And then he goes on about the bestest golf course hes ever built in Scotland. Embarrassing! Joke Kernen on CNBC is going on about how this is about how the Brits don’t want Socialism. Jeezus Christ.
Elizabelle
Text of David Cameron’s speech on Brexit victory and his impending resignation.
PaulWartenberg2016
@Baud:
Funny thing, the band hates that song. They prefer “Kashmir”
Cermet
The UK takes a huge and permanent (!) hit against its GDP of over a 1%! Insane to hurt one’s economy (read jobs & Wages) just to essentially have the same relationship (currency control, border control – remain) with the EU but get only the added ability to say one isn’t in it. Talk about shooting one self in the foot.
The Thin Black Duke
Once again, stupid angry old white guys will cut off everybody else’s noses to spite their faces.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@Baud: yup.
when a liberal wins in canada or france or germany you never see the press say a world wide trend is underway. but if a reactionary wins they’re quick to project that result world wide, especially onto the US.
PaulWartenberg2016
@Baud:
Funny thing about racist voters: they never think long-term. Only in the moment of anger and suspicion and whatever it is the Murdoch-owned new sources tell them to think.
Which media outlets in the UK were for Leave? I’m willing to bet most of them were owned by Murdoch…
NorthLeft12
@Baud: Yes Harper won three elections, although the first two were minorities which kept his right wing agenda mostly in check. After his majority government showed what it could do [or not as was mostly the case], he got the boot.
Joel
@Baud: A lot of the volatility is speculation, especially in the currency markets.
Cat48
A defiant Bernie Sanders is urging his supporters to continue his fight against the Democratic establishment, as the Vermont senator continues his quest to overhaul the party he only recently began associating with.
Ignoring calls to formally suspend his campaign and back Hillary Clinton, Sanders is hoping to encourage a new wave of progressives to join Democrats’ ranks and cement his key proposals into the party’s platform.
Read the full story here
Interesting.
NorthLeft12
@Baud:
I was surprised to find that there is not any advantage for fellow members of the Commonwealth wrt immigrating to Britain. My oldest daughter is working in England and the only break she got was because my Mother-in-law was born and raised in England. She was able to get a five year instead of a three year work visa.
She was not happy with the result and has reported increasing animosity towards immigrants. Virtually all immigrants. Not just the coloured or non-English speakers.
debbie
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
Boris Johnson is Trump with an accent, nothing more. I can’t imagine how leaving the Union on top of Cameron’s austerity will turn out well. It’s probably just a pipe dream to hope this will bring Labor back to power.
rikyrah
As the market plunged over 500 points this morning, Ferret Man said the Brexit vote was terrific.
So, Wall Street Donor…you STILL gonna open your checkbook to this clown?
NorthLeft12
@The Thin Black Duke: I have not heard if the vote was split along gender lines as well. I am suspecting that this was mostly an age related split, but that is just a gut feel based on my interactions with Brits when visiting the UK. The women were the equal of the men in their views of society and how to fix them.
Kay
A shit-load of people just don’t like Donald Trump and it isn’t just liberals. They think he’s rude and obnoxious and he never shuts up. The vast majority of people don’t actually behave as badly as he does, partly because they can’t. They wouldn’t keep their jobs or make any money at their small business or have any friends or get along with their neighbors. Most people can’t screw over people who do work for them because most people operate in the same place for years and years and they would get a bad reputation and that would matter to them and hurt their business.
some men like and admire people like Donald Trump. Most people think he’s an asshole.
The Thin Black Duke
@Cat48: Another stupid old angry white guy allegedly on “our” side who can’t deal with the reality that the majority of the voters didn’t want him and that he’s been beaten decisively by a woman. Fuck this clown.
OzarkHillbilly
@Elizabelle: My wife grew up under Franco. The inherent misogyny of that regime is hard to wrap one’s mind about. She has life long habits that are carryovers from those days that just kind of drive me a little nuts.
Joel
The question is, does the price of petrol and other basic goods jump up immediately? An 8-10% immediate increase is quite a bad sticker shock for people without the means to absorb it.
Iowa Old Lady
@RK: Those survey results show some ugly, ugly impulses.
Betty Cracker
Looks like this would be a good time to visit the Old Country since the pound has dropped like a rock. When I was in college in the mid-80s, I had a British friend who found himself financially embarrassed because the pound plunged against the dollar, and he was on a set monthly allowance that didn’t take exchange rates into account. Just read that this is the lowest the pound has been against the dollar since then. Wow.
@PaulWartenberg2016: They are right to prefer Kashmir.
Cat48
It’s been two weeks. Most people would have conceded by now. I didn’t ask him to make over my party. Grrr
Betty Cracker
@Kay: That’s why I’m confident Trump will lose, even if people don’t like Clinton and don’t fully grasp the Republicans’ role in fostering inequality of all types. He’s just too embarrassing to be president.
p.a.
As economist Lou Gorman said, “The sun will rise, the sun will set, and I’ll have lunch.”
Baud
@Cat48: Some people can quit cold turkey. Others need Chantix.
sherparick
@Viva BrisVegas: This really comes down to the Tory Party, the majority of whom support Brexit. Most of the remaining are apparatchiks who are primarily interested in the “Game of Thones” and “House of Cards” and “Blackadder” sense of possessing power. They will go along with Brexit because that his how Osborne and Goves and Johnson will try to get power.
What has happened, ironic as it is for Cameron and Osborne, is that for the last six years, under the Tory austerity regime, public services in the U.K. have been starved of funds, particularly the National Health Service, just as an aging Baby Boomer cohort is aging into increasing demand for those services. Ideologically, Cameron and Osborne would love to get rid of the NHS and go all Paul Ryan free market in health services, but that publicly is a real 3rd rail in English politics, so they have campaigned by stealth to reduce services and exploit health service providers (particularly nurses and young doctors). And when people complained about the decline of NHS services, Cameron and Osborne, and their friends in the tabloid press have blamed “immigrants” who are “bring infectious” diseases into the country. Well, Brexit allowed the voters to say, “we know how to solve the problem and fix the NHS – kick out the foreigners!.” This appears to be the biggest reason older Brits voted for “Leave.” For more see: https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/
Cameron is out, and Osborne probably will be maneuvering to replace him by saying that he was for Remain, there is no way Gove or Johnson would be able to get a good deal with Germans on exiting terms (Schauble, the German Finance Minister and High Priest of Austerity, has already said that the U.K. has to be punished for leaving so as to discourage other EU countries from thinking about it. This is more cutting off one nose to spite’s one face, but Schauble has already shown in Greece and the whole Euro crisis and reflexive willingness to amputate noses.)
Again, the “Leave” vote is the result of six years of austerity and 25 years of broken promises made by the elites about globalization. We humans have an instinct for tribalism, and when times get tough, we tend to retreat into your tribes. However, I am afraid that the primary lesson that the Lords of Finance and plutocrats take away from this vote and the Trump phenomena is that there is simply to much democracy.
http://www.cato-unbound.org/2009/04/13/peter-thiel/education-libertarian
rikyrah
@Botsplainer, Neoliberal Corporate Shill:
You tell no lies.
Baud
Bernie is on Joe of the Morning.
Kay
@rikyrah:
The golf course is a disaster and that’s not the best part. The best part is it’s the idiot son’s hobby-business. Trump is supposed to rescue the idiot son’s hobby-business with his awesome charisma.
These people are like a caricature of unearned admiration. It is based on nothing but bullshit. It’s appalling that they ran this scam as long as they did.
Peale
@Baud: yep. And they are not gonna give up the commonwealth.
rikyrah
@OzarkHillbilly:
How many Trump supporters travel outside the USA
Cat48
@Baud: Tell me what he says. I,don’t want to see him : )
gogol's wife
@OzarkHillbilly:
A great man.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Baud
@rikyrah: Including Hawaii?
@Cat48: I’ve already clicked.
Elizabelle
@OzarkHillbilly: Would love to hear more about that.
@PaulWartenberg2016: Yeah, Kashmir for the win. “Stairway” has been played to death, although it’s good to hear every now and then. A lot of Zeppelin stands up well.
When schrodinger’s cat put up that Viking kitties video, turns out a lot of the lyrics of “The Immigrant Song” were a bit different from what I thought… threshing oar, indeed.
rikyrah
@Cat48:
I am so tired of him. Folks here been telling us to be patient and understanding with Bernie.
Uh huh
Iowa Old Lady
@Baud: Sanders just seems irrelevant. The world is moving on, and he’s still shouting from the edges.
Van Buren
@RK: It’s eerily similar to Know-Nothings polling c. 1848
Baud
@Van Buren: Great username/comment combo.
Peale
The great thing about living through 08 is that not matter how much the Dow plunges today, I can safely say “meh. Kids these days. They don’t know what a real meltdown of an economy looks like. Back in my day, we had panics and made them stick.”
rikyrah
@Elizabelle:
Seems like Cameron played himself by calling for this vote.
Baud
@Iowa Old Lady: Credit Clinton for running a sound campaign so far.
rikyrah
@Kay:
Tell that truth Kay.
OzarkHillbilly
@rikyrah: My back of the hand math says 2. Total.
Elizabelle
@rikyrah: Yep. Being a fly on the wall at 10 Downing this morning would have been muy interesting too.
Sloane Ranger
@Baud: No. Immigration laws have been seriously tightened up over the last few years as the Govt tries to reach their net immigration target. They couldn’t prevent EU citizens coming so they made it really hard for everyone else.
There was an Asian guy being interviewed by the Beeb this morning saying a lot of people in his community voted Leave in the expectation that immigration rules for citizens of Commonwealth countries would be relaxed so there was someone to do the low pay low status jobs Brits don’t want to do once the EU people go.
Cat48
@rikyrah:
I know he’s old and needs time some say. He’s on his way to CA, per the Hill. I guess he’s just going to stay in till the convention.
rikyrah
@Kay:
Been reading about that disaster. I think it perfectly encapsulates who he is.
Baud
@NorthLeft12: Thanks.
Punchy
It’s OK that England is broken. The Oracle of Brady told me there’s a New England out there, and they’re very Patriotic.
Gin & Tonic
@debbie: I read on Twitter that Brexit is old people who miss a past that’s gone forever voting for a future that the young don’t want but will be stuck with.
TIlda Swinton's Bald Cap
@Cat48: Like I said, if Trump wins and burns it down, Bernie will have provided the gasoline, fuck him.
Dork
I read it takes 2 years to leave the EU. After 2 years of a declining pound and financial devestation, I’m guessing they’ll find a way to back out of this decision.
Sloane Ranger
@NorthLeft12: Yeah. We hate all foreigners but we hate those speaking English or a version thereof slightly less.
debbie
@Gin & Tonic:
Wish the Queen had spoken up. Steady on, my good subjects.
Cat48
@TIlda Swinton’s Bald Cap:
That sounds about right. They’re behavior is similar at times. Oh well, the Convention is in July. Maybe after everyone votes Hillary, he’ll get the message :(.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: I turned Morning Joe(sans Joe of the Morning & Mika), the old man yelling at clouds is dead to me.
Kay
Put this in the ever-expanding file for “sounds too good to be true so probably isn’t”:
Someone brought me a window-washing “sharing economy” type deal the other day. They’re going to be “independent contractors” for a company that washes windows for supermarket- type stores. I have no earthly idea what they will make an hour after expenses but it’s an awful lot of risk for 15 bucks an hour. They would literally be better off in a factory.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
So the EU started 23 years ago. I’m reading people early on were skeptical it could ever work. All these countries have different languages, different cultures, different currencies, different resources. How can you combine them under a single federation, border, and currency.
Imagine trying to accomplish that in North America. People would freak out if we attempted to get rid of the dollar and adopt the
euroamero. There would be a certain percentage of people from the US and Mexico who would move to Canada to take advantage of free medical – even Canadians would resent their system was being crowded out by newbies.Technocrat
It’s weird how some people are trying to tie Brexit into a unifying narrative about populist anger against the elites. Yet when you actually look at what’s happened:
In the Democratic primary, this cycle’s “change” candidate not only lost, but did worse than the last cycle’s;
In the Republican primary, they picked a straight up embodiment of crony capitalism. Like, literally a corrupt billionaire;
In the UK, young people voted for the status quo.
Elizabelle
@rikyrah: @rikyrah:
There may not be that many (proportionally), but when they do, they take cruise ships.
Some of the crap I heard. Oy vey.
Cermet
@debbie: Glad she did not; the UK queen has no relevancy to any real world issue. Wish President Obama had not said anything about their vote – really not something we should officially comment on. That said, the Scott’s are truly the only people/government in the World that has every right to comment on tRump.
Betty Cracker
@Punchy: Saw a piece this week about Trump’s plans for the convention, which supposedly feature Brady in a starring role endorsing his good buddy Trump. I don’t blame Brady; he’s a talented athlete but does not seem particularly bright otherwise. Getting mad at him would be like getting angry at a puppy for pissing on the rug. But doesn’t the man have an agent to steer him away from PR disasters?
rikyrah
@debbie:
Could she have spoken up? Is there precedent for it?
debbie
@Betty Cracker:
With any luck, he’ll address an empty, or at least deflated, football.
Cermet
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Europe isn’t the US; also, when I was in Europe most young people both loved the system and were thriving within it. Most spoke a minimum of two languages (right there is the biggest joke about the US) and traveled all over their newly formed union. What fucking down side? Smarter, more talented youth that both culturally and intellectually superior over past generations. We should get so lucky that North America (and for that matter, South America) could form a single union. The world would be a far better place if the rest of the America’s could put a powerful check on our imperialism.
debbie
@rikyrah:
Probably not, but she generated a lot of goodwill with her 90th birthday observance.
satby
I replied to a comment in the last thread, reposting here because it’s more on topic: @opiejeanne: This is the week my mom’s mutual fund is being liquidated to disperse to us (or early next week), so this is a looming catastrophe for me.
I’m being advised to just mail in the keys to my tree-enhanced house (yep, it’s still on there and now the ceiling is cracking, collapse is possible) and look for somewhere else to live. That money was going to be a larger than average down payment so that my credit history would be less of a barrier.
I really had enough on my plate without shit going on in Britain affecting me.
Iowa Old Lady
@satby: I just replied to you on the other thread too. I’m so sorry.
Betty Cracker
@satby: Gyad, that sucks! Is there no way to delay the liquidation for a couple of weeks or so?
Emma
@debbie: The Queen does not speak up in these matters in public. I am guessing that after his (mandatory) visit to Buckingham Palace Cameron will have to change his underwear. The Monarch’s right is to advice her government and to tell the PM off in private.
And can we please stop with the dire predictions of imminent death? There is so much in play right now that we won’t know what happens until it happens.
Jeff Spender
Apparently Bernie has finally said he’ll vote for Clinton.
raven
@Emma: You’re not from around here are you?
Baud
@satby: Ugh. That really sucks.
Emma
@raven: Yeah, it hit me after I hit the “post comment” button.
raven
@Emma: :)
OzarkHillbilly
@Elizabelle:
But of course, that way they don’t have to mix with those people.
Iowa Old Lady
@Jeff Spender: Is it wrong that my first reaction is “who cares?”
Cat48
@Iowa Old Lady:
Ok, I cared. It’s important to me that he endorses & concedes. So that’s a baby step on the way :)
raven
Dr Ralph Stanley
I am a Man of Constant Sorrow
Baud
@Iowa Old Lady: Nee thread on Bernie up. You can continue to not care there. ;-)
D58826
@Botsplainer, Neoliberal Corporate Shill:
I was going to say the same think with the added comment that for the leave folks it is still cutting off your nose to spite your face. At the end of this process the elites will still be fabulously wealthy and the angry protest voters will be even poorer.
And on this side of the pond and speaking of protest votes, Bernie has said
1. he will not concede
2. he will not endorse Hillary
3. he’ll still mount a platform fight at the convention
4. he will campaign for down ballot candidates who pass the purity test
5. he has made no commitment to campaign for Hillary but will vote for her in November.
Item 5 seems to be his definition of doing everything he can to defeat Trump.
sherparick
As Simon Wren Lewis writes on his blog Mainly Macro, the problems people in the Boomer generation were experiencing in the National Health Insurance, and the way the Cameron-Osborne-Tory Press-Sky News blamed these problems on “immigrants crowding” and and the EU rules was the prime motivator for the “Leave” vote. See https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2016/06/why-do-people-want-less-eu-immigration.html
For an example, from the Guardian.
“…Claringbold, who is disabled, said that she voted Leave because of pressures on the NHS.”
“I’ve waited eight months for an appointment at Colchester hospital. Other countries are fine outside Europe, we’ll be fine too.” http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/24/eu-referendum-brexit-live-europe-leave-remain-britain
satby
@Betty Cracker: I emailed my sister to contact the banker, but I suspect if the papers all were in that the sell order is automated. There’s really strict rules around trade timing after a buy/sell order is registered.
The only hope is they didn’t get all the paperwork in yet, my sister’s was lagging.
I try to stay positive, because I have my health, but it’s getting close to the point that that’s all I will have. Just feeling down about it all.
Fucking insurance company has to approve a tree removal estimate, and those have gone from about $500 initially up to $2k now, because the roof has destabilized. I passed up on the Farmers market today because I have to order a pod and start packing, with no clear idea of where to go. Looked at a place yesterday that was a joke, but stuff in my price range comes minus mechanical sometimes. This Brexit vote is like icing on a shit cake.
Kay
Overtime rule is popular. 67% for. Democrats need to talk about it with people who understand it what it means- hourly workers.
This is the perfect grass roots issue- they need to go under elite commentary. Have the young’uns pull out their phones and go thru their wage statement with them. Show them. They’ll get it.
Anon
The rot is spreading, racist xenophobes throughout Europe are getting on the exit train hoping to be swept into power.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36615879
Gin & Tonic
@raven: We’re all gonna die.
satby
@D58826: Just more proof he is and always was an asshole.
My dating history finally was useful for letting me detect it early this time.
Iowa Old Lady
@Cat48: Don’t get me wrong. I’m glad. I know that while he seems irrelevant to me, it may make a difference to his voters.
jonas
It’s clear now that this was really just a scheme to get Boris Johnson into 10 Downing St. Well played, sir. But I was thinking that maybe there would be enough ambivalence/gridlock in Parliament to slow walk a final Brexit to the point where it ended up being more of a renegotiation than a full withdrawal, but it now appears that the other EU members are basically telling the UK it’s out.
I guess this really was it.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
So a no binding referendum for a highs risk policy that popular with the one foot in the grave crowd. I am sure the British politicians will rush this threw.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Gin & Tonic: That’s an uplifting thought.
sigaba
@OzarkHillbilly: Death didn’t spare him over for another year?
Cacti
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon calls for new independence referendum .
Sinn Fein intensifies calls for a reunification vote Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
Quite the political legacy Cameron is going to leave behind.
MomSense
@rikyrah:
Yup, he decided he needed the UK version of tea partiers to win an election and now they have taken the country off the cliff.
sigaba
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/europe-plunged-crisis-britain-votes-leave-eu-european-union
Keith G
David Cameron is a typically behaving elitist who I have never cared for. I am enjoying the fact that despite having been asked by Boris Johnson to stay as Prime Minister, Cameron has essentially said, “Look Boris (you disingenuous little wanker) this baby is yours now. Good luck. I’m out.”
sigaba
Meanwhile dog catches car:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/boris-johnson-no-need-haste-eu-exit-negotiations
Emma
@sigaba: Yes. Now that the EU is saying “move fast,” and the Scots, Irish, and the Spanish government are moving in, it’s time to proceed cautiously. Enjoy your headaches, wankers.
Fair Economist
@jonas:
That’s moot. England has to call for Article 50; the other EU states can’t make it. The current Parliament is overwhelmingly Remain and will never vote to Brexit. Cameron obviously knew this and the referendum was, essentially, fake. Once he’s gone the next Tory leader will have to consider the politics of calling another election to try to get a pro-Brexit Parliament. Most likely, they won’t – why risk a majority for that?
Delaying his exit to October is a last move by Cameron to sabotage a Brexit campaign as by the time any leader could even try to act on the referendum it’ll be stale and less compelling.
My prediction is that the next PM will call a Brexit vote, which will fail, and then they’ll say “well, I tried, and we have to wait for the next Parliament (4 years away). The UK now has a law making calling new elections rather difficult and the new PM will undoubtedly find it undemocratic or something to change that.
tybee
@magurakurin:
yup. but i think i’ll see what happens early next week before i spend my shekels.
Ronnie Pudding
This may have been mentioned above, but those are some impressive life expectancy numbers.
EZSmirkzz
@Fair Economist: The current reaction to a non-binding referendum is just more positive re-enforcement of representative democracy. I too doubt Parliament will pass the measures necessary for an exit. The Commons may be politically astute enough to leave it to the Lords for the purpose of stripping the Lords of what little power remains in that house, and if so I’m sure the Brits will lap it up just as they did the referendum.
What I think is being overlooked in all of this is the conservatives continued assault on institutions and programs put in place during the depression, to prevent depressions, and after WWII to prevent world wide wars, for some nebulous freedom and liberty from the abstract tyranny of the state, all the while ignoring the very real threats to their liberty and freedoms with the war on terror, which they seem to support whole heartedly as the duty of the state.
Apparently most investors are conservatives, because the sharpies are taking them for a fucking ride today.
sigaba
@Emma: The problem for Johnson is he really doesn’t have any room to negotiate, they can’t go the EU and say “maybe we will and maybe we won’t.” Not credibly, anyway, his only option would be to threaten to ignore the referendum.
Bobby Thomson
I hate British Nazis.
sigaba
@EZSmirkzz:
The War on Terror, wherever it is fought, is, prior to any actual concern about terrorism, a war on foreigners and immigrants. Terrorists who are white or merely natives are always exempted.
Chris
@Baud:
Agree… kind of. I’m not sure there’s really any causality in either direction. But I do think that trying to explain the rise of far right parties with economic causes is reductive and off the mark. Having been watching the slow rise of the FN in France for basically all of my politically aware life, I don’t see much correlation.
@EZSmirkzz:
In this particular case, I think it’s more of a “fuck you” to internationalism than to state institutions.
Emma
@sigaba: Yep. Either way he’s going to be at the receiving end of some flavor of buyer’s remorse. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.
Brachiator
@Fair Economist:
So you are saying that Cameron deliberately sacrificed his own career, can engineer the selection of a compliant new PM and leave the people with a do nothing, obstructionist Parliament that does not reflect the current will of the people, all as part of a scheme to allow a vote on a fake referendum.
What could possibly go wrong with a plan like that.
Anoniminous
@Fair Economist:
It’s not up to the Brits anymore. They voted to leave and elections have consequences:
Top EU leader: we want Britain out as soon as possible:
nominus
@Fair Economist: That’s what I’ve been curious about and haven’t found the answer to: Parliament is pro-Remain, but what does Cameron’s resignation mean? Does it dissolve Parliament and call for new elections, or does the party simply vote for a new PM?
.,..and they thought Cameron having intercourse with a pig was the worst thing he could do….
Calouste
@sigaba: The reaction of the EU was basically STFU & GTFO. Boris the clown probably though that he would have a negotiating position. Turns out he doesn’t.
Calouste
@nominus: The part simply votes for a new PM at their party congress in the fall, and if the Queen doesn’t puke all over Boris the clown when she meets he, he’ll be it.
Although considering Tory history, serious infighting is not out of the question.
Calouste
@Brachiator: Cameron gambled with his own career in 2014/5, when he promised the referendum with the purpose of shoring up his right flank against UKIP. That go him a majority in Parliament. So he got the Golden Fiddle, and yesterday the Devil came to claim his side of the bargain.
Lizzy L
grumble grumble Brexit grumble grumble stock market grumble Trump grumble Sanders grumble fuck this shit I need another cup of coffee.
I’m not even going to look at my meager investments: I need ’em, but I don’t need ’em now today, and as was pointed out upthread the current drop is short term, albeit scary. That’s my political hope as well: I’m hoping Trump too is scary and short term.
PaulWartenberg2016
@Calouste:
Boris does not seem like the kind of savvy dealmaker that Tories habitually back as their party leaders.
The only reason he’s on the list is that he was the most vocal proponent of the Leave campaign, which is something not a lot of Tories backed.
I know the Crown is not supposed to interfere in the “day-to-day” operations of Parliament itself – in theory The Queen has power but in practice if she imposes anything it would cause an even greater government crisis – but this is the one time I think QE2 needs to make some behind-the-scenes maneuvers.
PaulWartenberg2016
I just confirmed that the Murdoch-owned paper The Sun in the UK backed the Leave movement.
So yeah, it’s not Trump that’s the problem with the world, it’s f-cking Rupert.
nominus
@Calouste: My first read of Boris is that he’s a snake posing as a clown, he reminds me a lot of Cantor and Cruz – they pretend to be simple and folksy and not at all sophistimacated, but they’re really opportunistic weasels. I’m wondering if the shitstorm fallout might shake up Parliament a bit. I imagine the Queen is going to have lovely conversation with Cameron and Johnson now.
Of course, the EU is already moving, so damage control within the UK might be moot at this point. I guess a lot of English forgot that the EU kinda prevented the rest of Europe from acting on old grudges, which it was designed to do.
PaulWartenberg2016
@shomi:
it’s more than just the stock markets.
the value of the British Pound – still separate from the Euro – has taken a huge hit and IS adversely affecting a lot of other things, including the US trade deficit (making it worse).
international banking and finance regulations are going to get more confusing.
overall financial instability prevents businesses from long-term planning and growth. Jobs will take a hit.
the stock market may recover, but there are no guarantees it will be by next week.
and everything else in the economy – local, national, global – is gonna suck.
Calouste
@PaulWartenberg2016: There’s been talk of Boris the clown as Cameron’s appointed successor probably since before Cameron became PM.
Brachiator
@Calouste:
Apparently so.
But I also wonder if the recent expression of Scottish nationalism spurred an English counter reaction, especially on the part of older Brits.
In any event, do you think that Boris has a serious chance of becoming the new PM?
And is it just me, or is there something Trump like about his … hair?
Origuy
@RK:
Those number you are giving are for Trump voters. The numbers are different for the general public, of course. Should have made that clear.
Calouste
@Brachiator: The bookies have Boris the clown as the odds-on favorite (4/5, next is May at 3/1) to become the next Tory leader, and I’m not going to bet against them.
There’s a lot Boris the clown and Adolf Trump have in common: bad hair, American citizenship, habitual lying, shooting their mouth off, infidelity.
Nick Clegg described Johnson as “Donald Trump with a thesaurus”.
Gelfling545
@rikyrah: Read this in several places this morning: he intends to vote for Clinton & work to defeat Trump.
rikyrah
@Kay:
yep.
You point out the obvious, Kay.
rikyrah
@MomSense:
and, I know folks pointed this out long before now, but were poo-pooed.
rikyrah
@Brachiator:
.
Actually, he was being too cute by half and got burnt.
DissidentFish
Considering the age break down of the vote: By the time britain actually leaves, the vote would go the other way. Because it way lost young people, and old people — who will be dead in 2 years — voted to leave.
Speaking as a born-in-the-Kennedy administration person, we oldies are a piece of f*ckin’ work.
The Fat Kate Middleton
@satby: God. I am so sorry this is happening to you.
sigaba
@DissidentFish: You boomers, always trying to get dad to love you.
BruceFromOhio
@shomi: Was just hunting through drawers, under furniture, HELOCS to raid, shit I’ll go panhandling later for change to pick up as many shares as possible of all my faves. Got caught illiquid after paying off some low-hanging debt, and that was poor judgement: I didn’t think people we’re gonna lose their fucking shit over a stupid vote that won’t have take effect for 2 years.
Buyers market.
Grumpy Code Monkey
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
It’s not just racism, although that is undeniably a component. The bigger problem is jobs; people are losing jobs to immigrants (legal and otherwise), and jobs are being shipped overseas as fast as possible. It’s not just low-end jobs, either; remember that Disney World was going to fire their entire IT staff and replace them all with H1B workers, just because the H1B workers are cheaper. A good chunk of my company’s software development is performed either overseas or by H1B workers here. Shit, I do not doubt that they’d lay me off to hire an H1B replacement on cost basis alone if they could get away with it.
The Fair Trade caucus presentation at the TX Dem State Convention took aim squarely at the TPP precisely because it facilitates sending jobs overseas without protecting either American or overseas workers.
Just because “they took our jerbs” is a meme doesn’t mean it isn’t true.
Here’s your nightmare scenario – a large contingent of people who are going to vote for Trump because they’re seeing the effects of illegal immigration on their daily lives and livelihood, but won’t tell anybody that they’re supporting Trump (pollsters or otherwise) because they’ll just be labeled “racist shitheads” and have their legitimate concerns ignored completely. So that huge lead we thought we had going into the election? Turns out, not so huge. Maybe even not a lead.
It’s not time to panic, but Hills needs to address this. American workers need to know that comprehensive immigration reform isn’t going to wipe out their jobs. Even racist shitheads deserve that much.
Keith G
@BruceFromOhio:
That’s a nice challenge to be confronted with. It’s not that I am unsympathetic to commenters above who are vexed by a depreciated portfolio, but so many Americans hunt for spare change just to keep the lights on, or worse, hoping they can find the extra bucks necessary to avoid eviction.
Keith G
@Grumpy Code Monkey: Thank you for addressing this from a position of the way your industry works. Folks tend to use the word ‘privilege’ as it applies solely to race or gender. There is a large amount of privilege relating to job and he conomic status.
redshirt
@Betty Cracker:
This better not be true, by gum! I am a huge Patriots fan and have defended Brady throughout this deflategate nonsense, but if he speaks at the Repub convention on behalf of Trump, I’m done.
Again though, I can’t believe this is true. He may be no genius, but Brady appears to understand how PR works, and officially aligning yourself with a man so hated by so many is very bad PR.
sinnedbackwards
They will wake up in twenty years and discover London is like Montreal and England like Quebec.
They will be the biggest frogs in their own pond but Frankfurt will be the financial capital of Europe, Scotland will independently be in the EU, and London will be a cheaper place for us to visit. Not so bad…. for us.
Cacti
@sinnedbackwards:
And David Cameron will be remembered to history as the Prime Minister who set in motion the dissolution of 300 years of union between England and Scotland.
Leto
@satby: As others have said, I’m sorry this is happening to you. Indeed, a horrible fucking shit sandwich. Hope things start to turn your way, and soon.
ET
To any millennial out there in the US that don’t vote because they don’t think their vote will matter – pay attention to the BREXIT vote. Millennials overwhelming voted to stay but BECAUSE NOT ENOUGH OF THEM WENT TO VOTE the boomers who voted overwhelming for leaving won because THEY ACTUALLY GOT UP OFF THEIR ASSES AND VOTED.
This could happen in the US in November.
glory b
@Kay: Late eo the party, but I’ve got to say that you aren’t an independent contractor just because the business owner says you are.
catclub
@Baud:
this