.
New @ABC News/WaPo poll shows Hillary Clinton's largest lead among non-white voters yet https://t.co/TtwnZNe6xF pic.twitter.com/h1IwPBMdip
— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) June 29, 2016
Fox News Poll: @realDonaldTrump losing ground with: pic.twitter.com/MuRg8q1vT2
— FOX Business (@FoxBusiness) June 29, 2016
Holy cats. https://t.co/vleG7PRKRT
— Daniel Drezner (@dandrezner) June 29, 2016
Prediction market odds for 2016 via @PredictWise
– Hillary wins: 75% chance
– Dems retake Senate: 59% chance
– Dems retake House: 18% chance— Bill Deger (@muwxguy) June 29, 2016
Apart from that, what’s on the agenda for the day?
Just in: Obama and Clinton will hold their first campaign rally together on Tuesday. Charlotte, North Carolina.
— Gabriel Debenedetti (@gdebenedetti) June 29, 2016
Baud
Not bad for a she-devil.
Schlemazel Khan
I thought Jim Morin’s cartoon today was a great idea for Drumpf: HERE
rikyrah
Good Morning ?, Everyone ?
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: It’s because she’s a she-devil.
Schlemazel Khan
@BillinGlendaleCA:
I thought it was because the whole thing was rigged because they allow people darker than a paper bag to vote.
Punchy
And yet Bernie Sanders has neither quit nor thrown his support to Hillz. What an incredibly shitty d-bag he’s shown himself to be.
Imagine her lead if/when the BS crowd decides to back Las Clintonayes.
Procopius
Pfui. Show me the polls from October. Or at least September. That’ll be some information. This is hypotheticals all the way down.
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA: I read a story that donors are reluctant to give to Hillary right now because they are afraid that Trump won’t be the nominee and they don’t want their money to go to waste.
Baud
@Punchy: They already have. There are only a few stragglers left.
Cermet
AS I said a few weeks ago and continue to say, Hillary, short of self destructing, will win; the Senate will most likely change hands and the house will remain thug but weaker.
Chyron HR
HOW DARE HE??? SHE ISN’T THE NOMINEE YET!!!!!!
Isobel
I’m excited to see things going well. Here’s hoping we retake the House!
Punchy
@Cermet: Imagine the hyper-Lib SCOTUS nom HRC could get if this happ’d. Of course, the Senate would have to eliminate judicial fillys, because the Senate repubs would go that route for likely anyone she tapped.
Central Planning
I bet Hilary wins by YUGE margins and the Republicans will claim that was NOT a mandate
bystander
Moanin’ Joe is in a frenzy. Bill Clinton held up his plane yesterday to meet with Loretta Lynch. No report, however, that he was carrying a large sack with a big dollar sign on it.
Baud
@Chyron HR:
I realized recently that a President isn’t elected until the electors vote sometime in December. So by celebrating Obama’s wins on election night, we were perpetuating an oppressive and rigged system.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Fox News Polls — Presidential Race
May 17 — Clinton (42%)…..Trump (45%)
Jun 08 — Clinton (42%)…..Trump (39%)
Jun 28 — Clinton (44%)…..Trump (38%)
That’s a 9 point shift in 6 weeks.
9 points or as Andrea Mitchell would say, a tie.
OzarkHillbilly
I see Betty touched a nerve yesterday. I think I’ll pass on reading the comments.
Baud
@OzarkHillbilly: Fair enough. We never read yours.
Baud
@bystander: They do it in bitcoins these days.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
You can see how Susan Sarandon and Tim Robbins are so attracted to Trump’s vision.
Patricia Kayden
@OzarkHillbilly: The comments are good so far.
Cermet
@Punchy: Reid has clearly and on the record stated that if any SC nominee is filibustered by the thugs (assuming the Senate is taken by the Dems) then the nuclear option will be used – period.
By the way, Hillary can easily win without Florida but if Florida stays in her column, game over – the rump has blown his last gas relative to his chances for POTUS.
Patricia Kayden
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Even Fox News is running with skewed polls! Arghh!
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: Woke up on the wrong side of the bed this morning, eh?
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA:
Every morning. But I should have added a winky emoticon or emoji to the end of my comment.
OzarkHillbilly
@Baud: I never read my comments either.
gene108
@bystander:
No one else is reporting planes being held up.
This ain’t 1993, flight records can be looked up quickly and right-wing rumors don’t get the same mileage that they used to.
OzarkHillbilly
@Cermet: Reid won’t be there. That will be (most likely) Schumer’s call.
Schlemazel Khan
@Punchy:
No need for a filibuster, all it takes is for one senator to put a ‘hold’ on the nomination. It is a gentlemans club after all
Cermet
@OzarkHillbilly: Well that is strange, neither do I …that is, your comments … .
magurakurin
@Punchy:
no different. Bernie’s endorsement won’t do shit now. He missed his chance.
Cermet
@OzarkHillbilly: Oops, forgot and you are absolutely correct and I am wrong (does happen …) – I stand corrected even without reading your comment …
Baud
@Cermet: Who are you talking to?
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Wow.
I have only watched the show a handful of times, so I don’t follow the show’s dynamics. But after Trump’s racist meltdown over the judge in his fraud case I started watching for the priceless schadenfreude.
On Monday, there was a moment when they seemed to be intimate with each other in their communications. I thought to myself: “woah! This is way over the line. There is a big difference btwn 2 people working closely together and 2 people being intimate. Man, I hope her husband is not watching.”
Little did I know.
OzarkHillbilly
Watch this video of Satby’s house falling down a hill.
The Thin Black Duke
@magurakurin: Why do I have the feeling that when Hillary is elected President, Bernie’s gonna spend the next four years barking loudly and chewing at her ankles?
JMG
It’s my birthday today. Never you mind the number, I admit I’m old. But I’m driving to the Cape to play golf and eat seafood today, so politics will be blessedly in my rear view mirror. At least that way I know I’m standing with a vast majority of my fellow citizens.
Baud
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: I bet they wear Obama and Hillary masks during sex.
Baud
@JMG:
Happy birthday!
different-church-lady
@OzarkHillbilly:
Baud
Speaking of bitcoin
Senyordave
I feel like I should apologize on behalf of white males. My guess is that some of my brethren are still yearning for the days of yore, when simply being a white male gave you elevated status.
gindy51
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: When’s the wedding?
different-church-lady
@Patricia Kayden: Yeah, but I’m just getting started…
JMG
@Baud: Thanks for the good wishes, but your image of Joe and Mika is gonna be stuck in my head all the way down Route 3 this morning.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@Baud: Digya ever hear how a Koch Bros front group produced a video of 2 interns having sex, one dressed as a panda and 1 wearing a Hillary mask.
The not so invisible hand at work.
sherparick
@The Thin Black Duke: That won’t be such a bad thing if he chewing at her ankles about the minimum wage, public university/community college tuition support, keeping us out of Syria, spending on infrastructure, etc. However, in the end I expect he will find that he will have to chew Mitch McConnell’s, John Coryn, and other Senate Republicans a lot more.
Baud
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: I had somehow missed that news.
OzarkHillbilly
@JMG: Enjoy.
Patricia Kayden
@Senyordave:
Being a White male still elevates your status.
@JMG: Happy B’Day! Hope it’s lovely for you.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Canadians pressing up against windows to get a glimpse of Obummer (photo)
Cermet
@Baud: Generally, just myself, it seems but sometimes people who comment back to me.
I see you are losing (badly) to Hillary, by the way.
satby
@OzarkHillbilly: ROTFLMAO! Perfect start to my morning!
Mustang Bobby
Good morning. I am dealing with PIGBARF today. That’s short for Paradoxical Inverse Grant Benefit And Return Frustration. It’s that weird thing that happens when a tiny grant for a piddling amount of money takes up more time and energy than it is worth. Whee.
And it’s the last day of the fiscal year so everyone who let their grant funds get unspent will be trying desperately to get them encumbered before the end of the day. Double Whee.
Baud
@Cermet: I’ve conceded (unlike some people). I’m now in the process of regrouping and biding my time until Hillary is indicted for tearing the tags off the White House mattresses.
RedDirtGirl
@JMG: Happy Birthday! I just had one and I highly recommend them!
satby
@JMG: A very Happy Birthday to you!
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
The Beeb says Boris won’t run for Tory leader (and won’t be the next PM).
“No, I don’t want the poison chalice, give it to someone else!!”
Cheers,
Scott.
satby
@Baud: EEWWW!brain bleach, stat.
debbie
@bystander:
I know I’ll be in the minority here, but the news of this meeting this morning really ticks me off. I’m sure it was innocent, but here they go again, giving the Right more ammunition. What is it with Clintons and an inability to weigh consequences? (“I want a blow job. Right now.” “Carry two phones? They’re too heavy.”) This stupid meeting will knock the news of the nothingness of the Benghazi hearings off the stage.
Clinton has my vote, but I am not looking forward to the next 4 years being more aggravating than the last 8.
Cermet
@Baud: Oh, I forgot about (both) that law and your concession speech.
By the way, when she is, and you replace her, can I get a pardon? It appears I too am guilty of that crime (removing the labels off cushions.) But in my defense, I was a teen and rebellious; I couldn’t resist and besides, it was just one damn tag! Honest (well, maybe not.)
debbie
@Baud:
That’s illegal?!
Joel
I plugged this story last night. It hits close to home, as I know the professor involved (through professional acquaintance only, thankfully). I also know plenty of professors with similarly questionable behavior, although perhaps not as egregious.
“He Thinks He’s Untouchable”
BillinGlendaleCA
I think I’m going to make another attempt at visiting UCLA today. I also might stop by the Westwood Village Cemetery, there’s some interesting folk buried there.
satby
@debbie: says so right on the tag //
OzarkHillbilly
@satby: :-)
Patricia Kayden
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet: Boris is not that stupid. Anyone who becomes the Prime Minister is in for a hard time given what BREXIT has done to the British economy. Wonder who will fall on the sword and assume that position. Would have to be someone who doesn’t care how long he lasts as PM.
OzarkHillbilly
@debbie:
Why? Dems talk to other Dems all the time. What’s the big deal? That the GOP will try to make hay out of it? When have they ever not? At this point, nobody is listening.
Baud
@Cermet: You get a pardon. You get a pardon. Everybody gets a pardon!
Baud
@OzarkHillbilly: The current big story is about how Huma testified that the server had IT glitches. Whoopdedoo. I’m surprised they haven’t started playing ominous music in he background whenever they report on the Clintons.
Patricia Kayden
@Joel: Read that link. The whole story is horrific. Glad that he got caught though.
Patricia Kayden
@OzarkHillbilly: I agree with you, especially that all these Clinton “scandals” are duds (and kind of boring to boot). No one is interested in any “scandal” while the Orange Bigot is running for President. But I guess the media has to report on each “scandal” to appease Conservatives and appear fair.
rikyrah
@Baud:
Only 3 more weeks that they have to wait. But, Hillary’s campaign is still doing the work.
rikyrah
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
It is a Fox poll, people.
Fox
LOL
Cermet
@Baud: Thanks! You’ll get my vote then (but not as quid pro quo …don’t want you impeached. At least until I get my pardon.) Didn’t realize that the tag crime problem was so wide spread! Really, everyone has done it? And I thought I was just the only one (besides Hillary’s future crime of tag removal.)
rikyrah
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
I read the tweet about this yesterday. Blech.
OzarkHillbilly
@Baud: I’m surprised they haven’t passed a law that makes IT glitches retroactively illegal.
rikyrah
@JMG:
Happy Birthday ?
rikyrah
@debbie:
It is an unforced error. This is what gives us pause about the Clintons.
Just ridiculous?
Bill E Pilgrim
Boris is not running for PM. Moose and Squirrel will be relieved.
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet: Beat me to it.
NotMax
@JMG
Have a happy seafood birthday.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
New cast of “Hamilton” announced (photo)
Bobby Thomson
@Punchy:
They already have.
Here’s some video of Bernie’s latest speech to his staff.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@Bill E Pilgrim: Booya! :-)
Cheers,
Scott.
Baud
Did I hear that there’s an opening for Baud! in the UK?
debbie
@rikyrah:
Exactly.
rikyrah
@debbie:
Oh , and this is the type of shyt that I and others have no intention of defending. So, get to it Hillary Stans.
Bill E Pilgrim
@bystander:
On first reading that made me picture Bill with a mask, like a Dennis Moore thing.
Stealing from the clueless and giving to the even more clueless..
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@Baud: Donnie might be some competition. He’s pretty good at breaking stuff and getting rich in the process.
“Vote Trump! He’ll bring back the Great Smog!! Crunchy air for everyone!!!”
How can you compete with that?!?
Cheers,
Scott.
Emma
@Baud: ok, no. That was tentacle hentai levels of bad taste. Some of us are having our breakfast!
Baud
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet: “If we make the UK uninhabitable, the immigrants will leave!”
Matt McIrvin
@debbie: The only people who regard association with Loretta Lynch as indicative of villainy are deep in the conservative epistemic bubble already. Nobody who isn’t either a right-wing conspiracy nut or a politics/government junkie even knows who she is. Arguably that is a sad state of affairs, but I don’t think this story is going to have legs.
NotMax
@Baud
Mika in the Bill mask, one presumes.
Safe word: whitewater.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@JMG: Hey, Happy Birthday!
OzarkHillbilly
@rikyrah: Enlighten me please. What was wrong with it?
hovercraft
@Schlemazel Khan:
I second that. Trump must go forth and stand up for his principles and lead by example.
Matt McIrvin
@Matt McIrvin: I stand corrected: evidently people in the Bernie-or-Bust epistemic bubble also regard meetings with Loretta Lynch as ipso facto indicative of villainy, on the basis of certain social-media conversations.
They are really becoming increasingly indistinguishable from conservative fever-swamp inhabitants.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@Baud: Why do you hate me? Us, actually, but …
Baud
@Matt McIrvin: I don’t understand. Should Obama not be campaigning with Hillary because she is “under investigation” (not really)?
satby
@Matt McIrvin: A lot of them probably already were fever swamp inhabitants.
NotMax
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
Because the Baudbros have deserted? (Okay, okay, Baudbro.)
:)
hovercraft
@Chyron HR:
Don’t worry I’m sure he’ll announce a joint rally with Bernie any day now, any minute now, any……….
Oh right he lost. No soup for you.
schrodinger's cat
OT IT help needed.
The battery of my almost 2 year old Moto G is not charging. Should I replace it?
Elizabelle
@JMG: Happy Birthday, pal. Golf and feast away!
Baud
@schrodinger’s cat: Depends on the cost. A new phone can be had for not much money these days.
schrodinger's cat
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:They did give me that vibe when I watched Morning Joe in the election season of 2008, for the first time. I did wonder whether they were sleeping with each other.
hovercraft
@Baud:
That is just sick and disgusting on every level.
2 points for slapping me fully awake.
Kay
@Matt McIrvin:
I agree but Bill Clinton is a pain in the neck. I was just thinking yesterday that he hadn’t done anything to attract attention to himself for the last couple of months so we were probably due for an outbreak.
hovercraft
@JMG:
Happy birthday, enjoy the beach.
schrodinger's cat
@Baud: The battery on Amazon is $28. I like to buy my phones outright so that’s at least $300 plus.
Barb2
This GOP manufactured hate of Obama and Clinton is an example of Fox news brainwashing or covert mind control used by cults to control the masses. (See the book “Snapping” current edition for more info.)
I almost fell for this during the Clinton Presidency, back when I watched TV. I realized that I had really negative feeling toward Hillary Clinton. No facts – just emotion. Why? Somehow my emotional memory had been filled with false memories. More research and I found the false narratives – the Sunday morning political shows. Different guests but same propaganda.
As we all now know the GOP started their hate campaign against Hillary 25 years ago. As referenced by Senator Warren on Monday. Those lies are ingrained and repeated as fact. Manufactured unfavorably rankings – lies. Most people have no idea that they are being manipulated.
Merely repeating Clinton’s -“unfavorable” ratings reinforces the lie.
Vox.Com wrote something about this.
Iowa Old Lady
@bystander: I’m half asleep reading this and thinking I didn’t know the Prez was a Loretta Lynn fan.
Baud
@schrodinger’s cat:
I thought some phones were cheaper than that, although I can’t speak to their quality. $28 seems worth it.
Chyron HR
@OzarkHillbilly:
What part of “SHYT SHYT STANS SHIT” do you not understan?!
OzarkHillbilly
@schrodinger’s cat: Nah. Just shoot the damn thing. With a bazooka.
Emma
Can I ask if there’s definite proof of this Bill thing or are we talking $400 haircut again?
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@Kay:
That’s a delightfully clever – and apt – description. Thanks.
schrodinger's cat
@Baud: I was going to replace my phone in fall. I have my eyes on either a motoX or a Samsung both retail for between $300 and $400, right now.
hovercraft
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet:
Aww, this is what happens when the dog catches the car. Latching onto xenophobia for political gain at the expense of your country is dangerous and might just come back to bite you in the ass. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.
satby
@rikyrah: Bill isn’t Hillary?
How was that?
OzarkHillbilly
@Kay: It’s only because he escaped.
satby
@schrodinger’s cat: then why wouldn’t you replace it now, unless you have to pay some penalty with your carrier.
schrodinger's cat
@OzarkHillbilly: I am a bit apprehensive of opening the phone and fiddling around with microscopic screws.
Baud
@schrodinger’s cat: I assumed you had a removable battery. If not, I would try to open the phone.
schrodinger's cat
@Baud: I think the battery is removable, I have never opened this phone, though.
schrodinger's cat
Right now , it works when I connect it directly to my laptop.
Agorabum
50% of white people for Trump? What the heck? Although I wonder what the numbers look like with the south taken out (no offense to the good ones, yall).
To the minorities – you saved us from palin. You saved us from Romney. And it looks like you’ll save us from Trump. Thanks!
Kay
@Barb2:
People really aren’t rational. We had a series of judicial candidates come talk to the local Dem Party- they want the central committee to vote to endorse them. One of them was just a really stand out candidate- not politically but substantively. The group rejected him and chose the one they “liked”. I was “but WHY do you like him?” “We just do”
Okey doke. He should definitely be a judge then. You want to have a beer with him.
Phylllis
@Mustang Bobby: I have 36 invoices to sign off on at the office. I feel your pain.
OzarkHillbilly
@schrodinger’s cat: So am I, that’s why I would just shoot the damn thing in toto.
Baud
@Kay:
Story of my career.
satby
@Baud: Too bad we’re not deciding votes anywhere, because we luv Baud.
Baud
@satby: Aw, thanks. Hanging out on a top-10K blog may not be career enhancing, but I wouldn’t trade it for all the “likes” in the world.
NotMax
@schrodinger’s cat
it’s possible that it is the charger that has gone kablooey.
Betty Cracker
I don’t understand the problem with Bill Clinton chatting with Loretta Lynch at an airport. BC can be a loose cannon, so I understand the reflexive flinchiness to an extent. But if a former president and AG end up at the same airport at the same time, they aren’t allowed to speak to each other because some wingnut might freak out? Do we really want to let the lunatic fringe’s capacity for imagining conspiracies govern ex- and current officials’ behavior? What am I missing?
OzarkHillbilly
@Baud: Same here except nobody likes me. Hell, I don’t like me.
ET
I know a lot of people here aren’t fans of Andrew Sullivan but he does have a way with words and his observations on Trump are interesting.
Baud
@OzarkHillbilly: Same here. I am the qualified but disliked person in that story, not the other guy.
ETA: Metaphorically speaking, of course. I wasn’t literally that guy.
Baud
@Betty Cracker: Oh wow. Is that the story? I assumed it was actually a meeting of some sort.
rikyrah
@Kay:
I hear you, Kay.
rikyrah
@Kay:
This makes me sad. Turning down excellent candidates.
OzarkHillbilly
@Baud: Qualified? I have to be qualified? Damn, I just can’t win.
Emma
@Betty Cracker: Supposedly he “held up the plane” to talk to her. It seems there have never been plane delays for regular reasons in the history of American commercial aviation.
Of course, those of us to remember the $400 haircut and the… what the hell was it that Hillary held up?… are a little leery of believing it. And I am getting pissed at people I really respect for AGAIN immediately buying into Republican spin.
schrodinger's cat
@NotMax: I have tried two different chargers, plus the battery doesn’t retain the charge.
Kay
@Baud:
I’m shameless so after failing to persuade them on substantive grounds I went to Plan B -“he has a new baby!”
If he had given me baby pictures I would have passed them around.
The Ancient Randonneur
@Betty Cracker:
Any current or former public official with the surname Clinton requires additional scrutiny. How else are going to get the readership. It has worked for them for more the a quarter century. Why stop now. Careate a little smoke and the haters will be convinced a fire exists somewhere.
hovercraft
@Patricia Kayden:
The scandal stories will only work on those already inclined to hat ‘the Clintons’ and on the media who always believe that this time will be the one when one of these scandals turns out to be real. I mean a server with glitches, next thing you’ll be telling me that water is wet. Who knew?
Immanentize
Morning all. Just a few notes:
Happy birthday! JMG and belated Reddirtgirl
The Cape is great this time of year — except the Sagamore Bridge.
Baud, I would still write you in because I am a Baud for Bank kinds voter– if the future of the Iniverse didn’t depend on a Hill victory…. Sorry, Man.
And today, visiting in sweltering Texas, I am off with my son to the Art Car Museum and the Orange House and maybe the Beer Can House in Houston just to get a bit of Americana under my belt. Any other crazy places we should visit nin or near Houston?
OzarkHillbilly
@Emma:
IIRC, a liquor store.
Barb2
Trump – text book example of Narcissistic personality.
Republicans running for office, he thinks they should be banned from running for office if they don’t endorese his mighty wonderfulness. According to Talking Points Memo. I guess he thinks he is King Trump.
So – has he returned to the manic phase? He does seem to cycle between manic and almost “normal”. My theory is that he is both Narcissistic and bipolar. Or just a version of dementia?
The long winded word salads that no one can understand is typical of the manic phase of people who suffer from bipolar disorder. My sister is bipolar plus schizophrenic – her manic ramblings were similar to the stuff coming out of Trump’s mouth. He has no mind/mouth filter.
Yes – it is proper and correct to discuss Trump’s mental health. If we don’t recognize Narcissistic Personalities Then we will be harmed at some point by a grifter Narcissistic personality.
gene108
@Matt McIrvin:
When I first saw the name I thought of Loretta Lynn, the country singer.
hovercraft
@Baud:
There are several openings in the shadow government that might suit you as you get the lay of the land, before you take over as the PM in September.
hovercraft
@Matt McIrvin:
There is believed to be a significant overlap between the Bernie or Bust brigade and the Ron Paul for ever crowd.
Fair Economist
@rikyrah:
Normally Fox is pretty good with its polling. I guess they don’t want to lie about something they can get caught for so quantitatively. BUT, this poll looks skewed to Trump to me. Compared to 2012 results, Hillary’s margin is about 10% better with whited, 15% better with Hispanics and 10% worse with blacks, which should produce an improvement of her overall margin by about 8%. But it’s actually up by only 3% (4% in 2012, 7% in the poll). Obama +8%, which is supported by the subgroups, would be the landslide we’re looking for.
Edit – they might be using 2014 weightings, which would probably generate about this result, while providing Fox plausible deniability.
Kay
@Barb2:
I think Trump is a textbook example of “privilege”. He never suffered any consequences for what he says and does. Never. His whole life. He takes the risk, other people get hurt. That’s a real luxury. Very few people get away with that.
The Ancient Randonneur
@Kay:
And sometimes he didn’t even take a personal risk in when the wellbeing of others was at stake. Via the NY Times:
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
I read an article the other day that basically said that Democratic donors are sitting on the sidelines right now, because their biggest fear is that Hillary’s advertising blitz will tank Trump’s poll numbers so badly that the Republicans will have no choice but to nominate someone else at the convention. If that’s your worst problem you’re not doing too bad.
These polls are proof, if anything, that white supremacists should be called white inferiorists – whites are the only demographic the majority of which supports Trump. If that’s not proof that we’re intellectually inferior I don’t know what is.
Speaking of cranky old white guys, these polls are diminishing Bernie’s leverage by the minute. He should have struck while the iron was hot in mid-May. At this point Hillary doesn’t need his endorsement, she’ll win in a walk anyway.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
Hmm haven’t both Obama and Hilary shown they don’t have even the slightest concern over who might be paling around with a terrorist when the Hellfire missile hits? Only in Conservatard land will that play for Trump.
Kay
One of my husband’s brothers was a Trumpster. He’s a commercial painting contractor in Los Angeles. He works hard and he’s been really successful. His entire crew is Latino, including the second in command (second after him- he’s the Prez). He just emailed me to tell me he’s voting for Johnson “the libertarian candidate”.
I’m kind of curious why he switched but I’m not sure it matters. His wife is a great person and her family has been involved in California Dem politics for generations. I asked her once how she could bear her Right wing husband and she told me “Chris doesn’t vote” – sly smile :)
ruemara
@debbie: yes, you are in the minority. As if you can even confirm there was a meeting for you to be so upset about.
@rikyrah: you don’t have to be a Stan to wonder what hell you both are so upset about.
Immanentize
@What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?: The reason I don’t buy this report is that there really is no reason in this scenario to sit on the sidelines. Hillary and the DNC cannot coordinate until after the official nomination, so money now is different than money after the nomination. It is perhaps true that some, who are maxed in the primary, are waiting for the general fundraising season. But why would one not donate if hey feared a bigger threat down the road? I think I would go all in now? I really don’t get the logic of the “donors are on the sidelines” ‘reporting.’
schrodinger's cat
@ruemara: If I remember correctly, Debbie was Bernie curious not that long a ago, that could explain her dim view of Hillary.
MomSense
@rikyrah:
Good morning!
TaMara (HFG)
That top poll makes me extra sad to be Caucasian today. But maybe being female balances things out a bit.
schrodinger's cat
@satby: The phone I want will become available a month from now. I need something ASAP, since I have no landline.
Immanentize
@Kay: Totally agree. One of the great privileges of privilege is that hurtful behavior rarely comes back to bite the hurter. Look at that Professor/Researcher at U.Dub as prime example for today….
Ruckus
@The Thin Black Duke:
He’s going to try to gum her ankles. He will be as effective as he’s always been.
hovercraft
@Immanentize:
On top of that donors know that it’s important to win back the senate, and her joint fundraising fund is part of the strategy to do so. Not buying it either, unless it’s a plant to scare more people in to donating.
MomSense
@Mustang Bobby:
I always feel like I’m working way too hard for what amounts to pocket change.
Baud
@Ruckus:
Wait, are we talking about Joe and Mika again?
Fair Economist
@Betty Cracker: They’re desperate for anything negative to say about Clinton. Nice Polite Republicans spent time this morning on how one of the most famously sociable and talkative Presidents ever stopped to chat with a cabinet officer. Horrors! But the truth is, it’s the best slime they’ve got, weak as it is. Viewed honestly, Hillary is very good.
satby
@OzarkHillbilly: I do!
Ruckus
@sherparick:
But he won’t be gumming about those issues. He’ll be going on about single payer as the end all, be all. His audience will be 4 white guys who think he’ll have a chance to win the nomination, in July 2017, because no one ever explained losing to them.
Davebo
@Immanentize:
I’d probably skip the Orange House but the Art Car museum is fun! Swing by the Menil and Rothko Chapel if you get the chance.
rikyrah
How the GOP plans to steal the election
Ruckus
@Baud:
No.
We are talking about an old fart who has passed his sell by date about 2 decades ago.
Kay
I love 5th graders. Not taking any bullshit “charity” from Trump:
Imagine if the adults had called him on some of this stuff at any time over his entire life.
Tom Levenson
@Mustang Bobby: that is the acronym I’ve been looking for all these years. My thanks.
yellowdog
@The Thin Black Duke: Two years. He is up for reelection in 2018 and he already has at least one person ready to challenge him. Who ever goes up against Sanders (primary if he is still a Dem or general as a Dem running against Sander (I) will have a LOT of backing.
MomSense
@bystander:
Joe’s just jealous that he isn’t the one in the big plane keeping everyone else waiting. He covets the oval office and all the trappings that go with it.
I bet his face took on a particularly envious shade of green while he complained about it.
Barb2
Fixing phones and tables.
First you need to be a fix it person. This can be done. Check YouTube videos for the same model phone or tablet. This is about battery replacement – the damn things aren’t rated for more than 500 recharges. Phones and tablets are designed to be non repairable. But this does stop those of us who hate to spend hundred of $ for a new phone. I researched YouTube and forums on repairing phones, sent links to spousal unit – see other handy guys are taking apart Kindles.
Check the videos – most likely someone is sharing how to replace batteries. You will need a good set of micro tools – Amazon has a selection. There are several places selling replacement batteries – telling us that reviving phones and tablets is possible.
The hard part is opening the case.
If you have an old phone practice getting the thing open.
I didn’t gut my Kindle – the spousal unit did. He got a good set of micro tools. It worked until the battery gave out again – it is now waiting for another battery transplant. My lap tops are also awaiting repairs. I’m using a back up/back up Samsung Tablet. Next back up is a Samsung camera/wifi enabled.
The Samsung camera has a easily removable battery. So there is no excuse for planned obsolescence of smart phones and tablets. Also handy spousal units are keepers.
Check with your neighbors for references – teenagers – budding Engineers or kids who love to take things apart. You might be lucky to have a whiz kid in your neighborhood!
Probably way more information than anyone wants. But geee it was so great to beat the planned obsolescence gang.
There ought to be a law…..
satby
@schrodinger’s cat: battery then. $28 is cheap compared to the other alternatives.
hovercraft
I’m not sure if this is funny or frightening.
Via TPM
An ISIS web forum discussing the pro and more pros of a President Drump.
germy
Re: Scandals.
I visit balloon-juice and LGM and a few other places, and I read the most outrageous scandals about Trump. The latest I suppose is the requests for donations from UK politicians (!?). I also (out of habit and because we don’t have cable TV) watch the nightly TV news. ABC and CBS mostly. Also my local TV news that feeds into the national stuff. And I rarely see the Trump scandals reported.
If Hillary sneezes, they’ll do their sneezegate reporting. There’s also the subliminal stuff that makes me sound insane if I mention it, but I will anyway: ABC’s story on the final findings of Trey Gowdy’s committee. “What did they learn about who was at fault?” the announcer intones over a photo of Hillary. So if you’re an average viewer, you’re left with the impression “She did something wrong.” The way they word their news pieces and their use of visuals. It’s subliminal propaganda.
If I didn’t read this blog and a few others, I wouldn’t know about all the bullshit happening with Trump’s campaign. Instead I’d be left with the impression “Well, he’s a plain-speaking businessman with some maybe controversial ideas who wants to shake up the establishment, while Hillary is an ambitious, career politician with some shady dealings in her past.
I can’t wait to vote. I’m hoping for a landslide so the network news can’t call it a “squeaker” and delegitimatize her administration. And I’d love to see Yertle stripped of any power to obstruct.
Betty Cracker
@Kay: One of my uncles was Trump-curious early in the election season but has also moved on to Johnson. He voted for Obama in 2008 and some third-party crank in 2012. He would never vote for Hillary in a million years (Fox News viewer), but I am heartened that he abandoned his original position on Trump, i.e., “he doesn’t really mean all that racist crap he’s saying — it’s just an opening bid in a negotiation,” and will now harmlessly throw away his vote.
germy
@hovercraft: Another ringing endorsement!
MomSense
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q):
Hey I promise I will email AL to get you my email and to provide some pupdates. GAH but work has been exhausting and my backyard deck way too inviting. Even my neighbors are taken in and keep stopping by to sip wine and visit. It has been quite lovely actually.
Chyron HR
@Ruckus:
Apparently SOMEBODY doesn’t understand how Presidential elections work. After the so-called “general election” in November comes the “contested electoral college”. We don’t KNOW who the President is until December, so Bernie won’t be conceding even if Hillary is the presumptive president-elect.
About a month later we’ll have a “contested inauguration”, so even if the Democratic Establishment Elites corrupt the electors’ ballots, Bernie won’t be conceding because he could still be sworn into office in January 2017.
A year after that comes the “contested state of the union address”…
different-church-lady
@Cermet:
Not badly — Baud is losing brilliantly!
rikyrah
………………
I and others have said it. NO WAY he forgave those loans. and, the GOP Donor Class knows it, because THEY KNOW HIM. And, they will NOT be opening their checkbooks to this con man. They are not the rubes that show up at his rallies.
Kay
Today’s Trump campaign lie:
Trump himself told this lie yesterday. Then just to make sure he Tweeted it again.
germy
@Betty Cracker: I watched Samantha Bee’s segment on the libertarian convention. I also watched her one-one-one interview with Johnson.
I’m not entirely sure he isn’t a comedian. The other libertarian candidates at the convention were all weird in their own ways (and the young dude was scary; not the guy who banged on the lectern, the other young dude in the suit who was trying to ooze charisma, but came across instead as quietly psychotic). But Johnson was like Doodles Weaver or Ish Kabible. Or a lost Ritz Brother.
Immanentize
@Davebo: Thanks!! The Rothko Chapel is one of my favorite places ever. My wife is from Houston and we used to go there on dates about 20 years ago…. Some thought that odd.
But getting my 15 year old son to spend any moments in contemplation is a struggle.
rikyrah
@Kay:
That is fabulous, Kay.
germy
@different-church-lady: Baud is merely positioning himself for a cabinet position in the new administration. Cultural attache?
lollipopguild
@Baud: My Eyes!!!!!!!!!
Kay
@Betty Cracker:
Your uncle sounds more engaged than my husband’s brother. He doesn’t have a clue why he “supports” these people. He likes “winners” so he probably figured out Trump is a likely loser.
I have two Right wing brothers in law. The other one is a banker. He loved Mitt Romney. My mother in law is a Democrat and she deliberately seats me next to them because she is an instigator. :)
rikyrah
@Kay:
Now, I don’t know the ins and outs of campaign finance.
Accepting federal funds doesn’t begin until you are the official nominee, right?
I’ve said it, and will stand by it.
He’s never forgiven those loans.
One way or another – from the rubes, or from public financing – he’s going to get back that $45 million he ‘loaned’ the campaign.
lollipopguild
@NotMax: You are one sick puppy.
Barb2
Well damn – you mean we can’t believe a thing Trump says? Like when he announced he is forgiving is own loan to his campaign.
Geee whiz I almost believed.
His followers believe.
Gin & Tonic
@rikyrah: Trump’s entire working life has been based on spending other people’s money. He’s not about to change now.
Immanentize
@schrodinger’s cat: @Barb2: This is so right on. The whole maker movement includes the credo — “If you can’t open/fix it, you don’t own it.”
My son was actually doing iphone battery replacements as a small side-job in the 8th grade! Find a geeky kid near you, buy the part, and they will whip it out in no time for 10 bucks.
But it is fun to do yourself, I just replaced the screen of my laptop after I crushed it somehow. It cost me $45 instead of $160. But you do need some micro tools….
Barb2
I love Samantha Bee – she’s running circles around da Boyz of late night comedy.
different-church-lady
@schrodinger’s cat: The guy who was in charge of facilities at my school had a sign in his office: “IF IT JAMS, FORCE IT. IF IT BREAKS, IT NEEDED FIXING ANYWAY.”
It made me kind of fearless when it came to opening cases.
hovercraft
@germy:
He told us that he would improve Americas image around the world. He is a true strong leader, ready to lead America into a bright new future. What can Obama do? Only get standing ovations from those namby pamby Canadians, pah!
Terry chay
@sherparick: right now he is carping about bailing out Puerto Rico and GMO labeling… So no, he is not going to add anything to the debate other than something for Republicans to laugh at.
Immanentize
@different-church-lady: Another version of that is:
MomSense
@Immanentize:
Otherwise known as “cat toys” in the schrodinger’s cat household.
different-church-lady
@Immanentize:
I know what you mean: hardly any room to spread out your towel on that thing, never mind a beach chair or umbrella.
hovercraft
@rikyrah:
I’ sure the big gop donors are aware of the limits on matching funds, and know that even if he had forgiven the loans (which I doubt he did) he would find a way to repay himself. Grifters know grifters.
From the FEC
Donald never pays, he always gets paid. He is a con man.
rikyrah
Active shooter at Andrews AFB?
Barb2
If you happen to break the glass while taking case apart. No worry there are lots of online sources for replacement screens/glass. Also YouTube has how to videos.
Biggest complaint in repair forums was broken screens/glass.
different-church-lady
@schrodinger’s cat: Oh come now, I’m sure you can get by without making phone calls for a month.
Betty Cracker
@rikyrah: Sounds like folks just misinterpreted a drill. Whew!
Miss Bianca
@Baud: You’re on fire with the snark this morning, Would-Be President Baud!
@Mustang Bobby: I feel your pain. God, I am so stealing PIGBARF, acronym and concept alike, cuz ain’t it the truth!
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Immanentize: Just what I read…it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s correct. I think there is some concern that Trump will implode before or at the convention and that will mean the GOP will nominate someone approaching a “generic Republican” who no one will know anything about but who might be able to stay on message and with Hillary’s high unlikeable numbers might be able to at least make the election close. My guess is no matter who they pick class will tell in the end and the guy will say something stupid or unpopular and Hillary will win anyway, but winning close is worse than the looming blowout we’re working with right now.
different-church-lady
@shomi:
They kept telling us over and over and over they were never interested in politics until Bernie, which is why Bernie is such a good thing.
But then they also tell us it’s impossible for a democrat to win the presidency without their support, despite the evidence of the last two presidential elections, which according to their own account, occurred without their involvement.
Miss Bianca
@Patricia Kayden: Wouldn’t it be something if no one touched it and they had to beg Cameron to come back? Now *that* would be choice – “drink, drink this poison chalice, mofo! You prepared it!”
catclub
@debbie:
Dick Cheney goes hunting with Antonin Scalia while a case is under SC review. Crickets.
You talk about ammunition. The Clinton rules mean that if he had not talked with her, that would have been worse.
schrodinger's cat
@different-church-lady: I could go without making phone calls for longer but texting and reading Balloon Juice on the go are the two things I couldn’t do without.
Doug R
@Baud: I’ve seen a few new unlocked Android phones at Costco from $99 to $199. I bought a battery from a battery store, it cost about $30. You have to consider if it’s for an older model, it could have been sitting on a shelf for about two years as well.
burnspbesq
@OzarkHillbilly:
You don’t see how bad the optics are? Really? Spouse of a person under FBI investigation hobnobs with the Attorney General? Don’t. Even if you’ve been best buds since kindergarten. Just don’t f’in do it.
different-church-lady
@schrodinger’s cat: Well, it’s your life, you can waste it however you want.
catclub
@NotMax:
That would just excite them more.
Safe word: No indictment.
hovercraft
Warren is getting geared up for the final Harry Potter battle against evil.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@MomSense: This is going to sound quite weird – I think I meant to ask OhioMom! Are you in Maine, or am I hopelessly confused? Note that the two are not mutually exclusive.
Either way – we want pupdates!!
hovercraft
@hovercraft:
I removed the naked link to get out of moderation.
different-church-lady
@catclub: Right. The whole point of a safe-word is that it has to be something that somebody wouldn’t say in the natural course of the role play.
Or so I’ve heard.
hovercraft
For all the handringers who are worried about democratic complacency fear not the definitive poll is in Drump is leading Clinton by 4 points.
Gin & Tonic
I’m reading that Mike Ditka turned down the offer to speak at the Republican convention.
Seriously, how are they going to fill the time? I read a piece recently where the reporter asked almost everyone who had a speaking slot at the 2012 convention, and most won’t even be in attendance at the 2016 convention, having other pressing business elsewhere.
Shell
Don’t forget the good old classic, Crazy Glue!
Did Cole ever share any pics of Steves matted fur or new hair style?
Matt McIrvin
@shomi:
Are polls meaningless or not?
Matt McIrvin
@hovercraft: Rasmussen gotta Rasmussen! Brings back old times.
Shana
@Cermet: Sorry if this has already been said, but Reid won’t be there in January. He’s retiring.
MomSense
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q):
I am in Maine but I actually have family in Ohio so I can always pass the info along.
Immanentize
@Gin & Tonic: I vote that Trump runs a Jerry Lewis style telethon for the time allotted to the convention….
“Look at we’re walking….”
ETA. I still get queazy thinking both about the parade of children and hooped up Jerry Lewis from my childhood TV. REALLY. it would suit Trump’s schtick perfectly.
Matt McIrvin
@Immanentize: He could sing “You’ll Never Walk Alone” for the big finish.
Calouste
The main news out of that ABC poll is not that Clinton has her largest lead with non-whites so far, it’s that Trump lost a 22 point lead with men in a single month.
J R in WV
@Immanentize:
Our donation is monthly, so every month that money will hit Hillary’s campaign checkbook. Is that holding back>? No. That’s making a larger donation affordable. That’s holding back a little to make senatorial donations later, after the convention.
ETA: News about mind reading isn’t real!!
J R in WV
I’m having trouble connecting to B-J to comment and edit my comment… just FYI.
Tripod
@Betty Cracker:
Nominated by President Bill Clinton to serve as the U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of New York.
ODS is so 1998.
Mike in DC
I foresee Clinton getting 80 to 85 % of the nonwhite vote, with nonwhite voters making up 30 to 33% of the electorate. That adds up to 24 to 28% of the total popular vote. So, Trump would have to get 44 to 45% of the popular vote out of the white voter demographic, which equates to 44/70 to 45/67, around 63 to 67% of the white vote, just to get to 50% of the popular vote. This seems like a big challenge.
Tripod
Also,
If I ever see the Big Dog at an airport, polling place or McDonalds, fuckin-a-right I’m going to shake his hand.
Uncle Cosmo
@Matt McIrvin: The (un)original pushmi-pullyu pollster, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Rethuglican Party. Probably playing games with his turnout model to twist the results into what his corporate masters want fed to the public. Speaking as a former research statistician, the mofo ought to be washed up by now–in the sense of being found in pieces on a Brazilian beach.
Grumpy Code Monkey
@Baud:
That makes zero sense; whether or not Trump is the Republican nominee, Hillary is the Democratic nominee (or will be soon enough). We’re not going to change nominees if the Republicans change theirs. Now, if you’re talking about Republican donors who don’t want to see Trump anywhere near the button and are willing to give to Hills to keep that from happening, okay, but Democratic donors need to get their shit together.
As far as The Big Cheeto itself, there’s not a lot the GOP can do at this point; they could change the rules at the convention and unbind all the delegates, but that would likely lead to blood on the floor. Beyond that, the only option left is a little digitalis in a taco bowl before the convention, but that carries some risk.
SiubhanDuinne
@schrodinger’s cat:
Since it’s only a month, maybe just get a burner phone until the model you want is available?
Kay
@burnspbesq:
True, but Lynch shares some responsibility too. She’s been a prosecutor a long time. She knows how nuts the political scene is. Just decline to engage with Mr. Chatty Face. We all know he can’t stop talking.
Kathleen
@Emma: What I heard on NPR is that they were both in the terminal and chatted. Outrage was not over hold up but certainty that deals were struck regarding email investigation.
Emma
@Kathleen: And of course we good democrats have pissed ourselves over “optics.” Bah. Nothing either Hillary of Bill have ever done or will do ever passes the Clinton Optics Rules. I wish we had the balls to defend ours the way Republicans defend theirs.
catclub
@Emma: This. You said it better than I did.
J R in WV
@Kay: There is no FBI investigation. It’s over, and nothing happened, and no one was accused of anything more than poor decision making. If stories I have heard about federal email rules are anything like accurate, it wasn’t even poor decision making. If you wanted your emails delivered the same day you wrote them, you needed a non-federal email system.
If you were in charge of agricultural loan programs, a leisurely email system is one thing. If you are in charge of foreign relations with various wars and conflicts around the world, that isn’t a real option.
ETA fix typo
Matt McIrvin
@Uncle Cosmo: I am actually also suspicious of those Ballotpedia battleground-state polls; those massively pro-Hillary numbers are just way out of line with most other state polls, the Pennsylvania one particularly. In general any single SHOCK POLL result is worth provisionally discounting until you see confirmation that some movement happened in a lot of other results.
Aimai
@Emma: this 100 per cent. Stop already with the permanent defensive crouch, democrats. The republicans are running a guy who is literally a criminal, fraudster, who threatened a federal judge. And a former president who has not committed ANY crime can’t speak to the attorney general? Come on!
Applejinx
@Emma: Be careful what you wish for: I got your back ;)
I’m literally not making this up: I bet his ‘casual social conversation’ was indeed designed as a little reminder not to go against the Clintons, and worked, too. It’s just another way of saying ‘we’re keeping an eye on you! We can stop planes and all sorts of stuff, so choose wisely!’
And I want it that way.
Why?
Because if Hillary (and/or Bill) Clinton can’t shut off a pissant little ethics investigation with political clout and ruthless domination of the supposed watchdogs, I don’t want her as President.
I switched to her without once believing she was some benevolent liberal who always did right: she and Bill are the ultimate power-fixers, otherwise how did they get where they are, in a totally corrupt Washington run for decades by Republican scum? They beat the Repugs at their own game and they’re the only ones who can get legislation through, alter our society in desirable ways, bail us all out. It’s rude to be fussy about how it’s done.
I don’t care if they’re crooked, I want results.
Aimai
@Applejinx: stop you loon. Just stop. We dont want your vote. You are infallibly wring even when you are trying to be right.