Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

“Jesus paying for the sins of everyone is an insult to those who paid for their own sins.”

It’s the corruption, stupid.

Let’s finish the job.

Schmidt just says fuck it, opens a tea shop.

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

Roe isn’t about choice, it’s about freedom.

They love authoritarianism, but only when they get to be the authoritarians.

A last alliance of elves and men. also pet photos.

The willow is too close to the house.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

Come on, media. you have one job. start doing it.

Sitting here in limbo waiting for the dice to roll

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

We are aware of all internet traditions.

Republicans are the party of chaos and catastrophe.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

Second rate reporter says what?

In my day, never was longer.

Hot air and ill-informed banter

This blog will pay for itself.

You are here: Home / Politics / domestic terrorists / Friday Morning Open Thread

Friday Morning Open Thread

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President Obama began his scheduled meeting with the Presidents of the European Council and the European Commission — running some fifteen minutes late, at about 5:15am EDT — with a quick update on what little is known at the moment about the snipers at the peaceful protest in Dallas. Summary as I understand it: Right now all we know for certain is that five police officers have been killed, three suspects are in custody and a fourth one dead. Gonna be a busy, horrible day in another week whose chieftest virtue is that it’s almost over.

Apart from trying to ride the chaos rather than letting it ride us, what’s on the agenda for the day?
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Reader Interactions

184Comments

  1. 1.

    Baud

    Went to bed shortly after this started. Woke up to far worse news than I expected. Damn.

  3. 3.

    Keith G

    This weekend is going to be a prime example of why it’s such a wonderful thing to be able to shut out most of the outside world with the ability to stream entertainment media. I foresee some bodacious binge-watching in my near future.

  7. 7.

    Cat48

    This was a horrible week for me and so many others. Bless all who died this week and their loved ones they left behind. This all feels very 1960’s

  8. 8.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    @Baud: You need to make that sleep thing unnecessary like Trump, I’m sure he can hook ya up.

  12. 12.

    Schlemazel Khan

    @Baud:
    I expect it won’t have a calming influence on our law enforcement personnel.

    I guess we all need more guns so we can be safer

  19. 19.

    Keith G

    Kevin Drum provides some light to push back against the darkness of this otherwise depressing morning:
    Hillary Clinton’s Poll Numbers Look Nearly Unbeatable

    So does Trump have a chance? Sure—though it’s slipping away. Voters are pretty non-thrilled with their choices this year, which means that turnout could make an even bigger difference than usual. But running a ground game requires lots of money and great organization, both of which Trump lacks. At this point, then, it looks like Trump’s only real chance is some kind of dramatic external event that suddenly turns voters his way. But I’m no longer sure what that could be. Serious economic problems are unlikely over the next 17 weeks, and terrorist attacks don’t seem to help him in the polls. So what is there?

  22. 22.

    Warren Terra

    @rikyrah: It’s maybe unworthy, but I’m really really hoping they’ll turn out to be NeoNazis. The political implications if they can be portrayed as representing the Muslim or Black communities could be really ugly.

  23. 23.

    Betty Cracker

    Went off the grid early last night, so I’m just now reading about what happened in Dallas last night. Holy shit, how horrible.

  26. 26.

    Mustang Bobby

    Waking up to hear the BBC talking about Dealey Plaza and Parkland Hospital gave me flashbacks to November 1963.

    And to be completely cynical, what’s the over/under on Fox News blaming it on Obama?

  27. 27.

    Baud

    @Warren Terra: It’s weird. They were obviously skilled and trained, but they must have hatched their plan at the last minute because they couldn’t have planned the protest in advance.

  29. 29.

    raven

    @Mustang Bobby:

    Joe Walsh: Former Illinois Congressman Says ‘Watch Out Obama’ Following Shooting of Dallas Officers
    “This is now war. Watch out Obama. Watch out black lives matter punks. Real America is coming after you,” Walsh said in a now-deleted tweet. He later tweeted that he “wasn’t calling for violence.”

  32. 32.

    Anne Laurie

    @Warren Terra:

    Do we know anything about the four suspects yet?

    Nope. The Dallas PD is doing, IMO, a great job of keeping the fires banked until there’s definite facts to report.

  35. 35.

    Keith G

    @Warren Terra: I am optimistic that this will not be a problem.

    It seems quite likely that these criminals were interlopers, opportunists who swooped into a peaceful, community-mined event and high-jacked it for their own purposes. There is such high levels of motivation for the various Dallas communities to reach out to one another and prevent contagion.

    Now, there will be a lot of blather from the usual suspects across the nation, but that usually dissipates after the funerals.

  39. 39.

    Schlemazel Khan

    @?BillinGlendaleCA:
    I like the thumbs in the first picture, it reminds me of my grandfather who never took a roll of film without at least one thumb shot!

    Cool 360, thanks. Thought the close up shot of the falls made me realize I have a broken mind and should not live in a civilized society.

  45. 45.

    Mustang Bobby

    @Betty Cracker:

    Ugh, that asshole again.

    I hope you’re talking about Joe Walsh and not me.

    This is a huge story outside the U.S. The local public radio station carries the BBC overnight and they were pre-empting their usual stuff to follow Dallas live. They must think we’re mad.

  47. 47.

    Mustang Bobby

    @Baud: Today being “Collector Car Appreciation Day” (it’s a real thing), I drove my antique Pontiac with the Ontario plates. Kinda wish I was there now.

  50. 50.

    satby

    Horrible day. Have to stay off Facebook for sure.
    Is it so hard for people to carry the simultaneous thoughts that black folks shouldn’t be summarily executed and neither should police? That no one should be gunned down?

  51. 51.

    PaulWartenberg2016

    I went to bed just knowing there was some shooting at a Black Lives Matter rally. I woke up to five dead cops and reports of multiple snipers meaning a straight-up coordinated attack.

    This is sick and mad and so fucking wrong, and I know damn well that the assholes of the world – oh great, there’s the EVIL Joe Walsh tweeting violence towards Obama again – are going to play this for all the wrong reasons to stir up even more violent bullshit towards fellow Americans.

    Goddammit.

    If I may speak as someone who’s been horrified by the number of unjustified deaths of Blacks at the hands of police, I am not someone who’s been speaking out for violence like this. I WANT THE VIOLENCE TO STOP. I want this cycle of fear and mistrust to end. I don’t want bullies in uniforms, I want professionals who are actively engaged in serving and protecting lives regardless of skin color.

    This shooting is going to make that cycle of violence worse.

    All this proves is that there’s still a bunch of violent assholes in the world with every one of us caught in the crossfire. All this proves is that fuck it GUNS are still a very serious fucking problem in this country (other nations are covering this as a gun violence issue).

    WE ARE SUPPOSED TO BE BETTER THAN THIS. THIS WHOLE NATION IS SUPPOSED TO BE BETTER THAN THIS.

    /cries

  54. 54.

    Gimlet

    @Cat48: “NY post went with: CIVIL WAR”

    Not Civil War, more like the call to arms of John Brown’s raid on Harpers Ferry.

  55. 55.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Keith G: This is the kind of statement that really makes me nervous. There haven’t been any polls taken wholly after the events of the past few days. And as I noted recently, Trump (unlike McCain or Romney) actually gets an Electoral College advantage, because much of his relative weakness we see is in deep-red states that he will win anyway. Clinton’s actual margin over Trump, in the sense of the shift that would be necessary to flip the Electoral College, is only between three and four points nationally. That’s beatable.

    If events make it seem to nervous idiots as if we are slipping into some kind of race war, obviously that helps Trump. That could be the thing that does it for him.

  57. 57.

    Keith G

    @Gimlet:

    I hear the suspects will be placed on paid administrative leave while they investigate the incident.

    Though I imagine in your case you are just goofing, I don’t understand why some react negatively when that happens.

  58. 58.

    Barb2

    In 1995 four firefighters died in the Pang warehouse fire in Seattle. The cause was arson. Son of the owners wanted money.

    Anyway there was a massive turnout for the memorial procession, a long line of firefighters and EMT plus hundreds of fire trucks.

    Something like that in Dallas so that everyone can grieve and come together would be a positive event. All the Seattle tv stations carried the procession live. I watched on TV and my husband plus others from the district were part of the procession, along with a fire engine from the district.

    At the same time Congress needs to know that there is evil in this world, hiding their heads in the sand isn’t going to end the violence.

    It seems like we are at a cross roads, where important decisions must be made. Do nothing is a decision.

  60. 60.

    Brachiator

    @Keith G: In the light of current events, Drum looks especially stupid.

    At this point, then, it looks like Trump’s only real chance is some kind of dramatic external event that suddenly turns voters his way. But I’m no longer sure what that could be.

    And the polls are interesting, but people need to stop treating them as definitive oracles.

    And yes Trump is in a weak position, but the recent stories about fund raising increasing for him indicates that Republicans are deciding that he is their man no matter what, including the obvious and unrepentant bigotry.

    ETA. Went to bed early and awoke unexpectedly early. I am just catching up on the horrible news from Dallas, compounding the other terrible events of the past weeks.

  61. 61.

    Betty Cracker

    @Matt McIrvin: I think Trump has had the “race war” vote solidly sewn up for months now. I am surprised he hasn’t tried to make hay of this shooting so far but am confident that he eventually will. Odds are good he’ll manage to step on his own dick in the process. I’m with Baud — complacency isn’t warranted, but neither is nervous nellyism.

  62. 62.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Baud: If people who might be in personal danger under a Trump administration want to leave the United States, and have any chance of doing so, now is the time to start making preparations.

  64. 64.

    Cermet

    Just as in Orlando this shooting in Dallas appears planed and executed by one or more people that had decided to kill a specific group. That these people who were killed were armed and trained to defend themselves shows how pathetic the nra’s narrative is for “if only there were good guys with guns”. These nra types are utter asswipes.

  65. 65.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    @Baud:

    Being nervous is a useless waste of energy.

    We’re Democrats, it’s what we do.

  66. 66.

    Hal

    The snipers used the protest for cover. One of the protesters was shot according to twitter. Are people assuming this was a shooting by protesters?

  68. 68.

    Keith G

    @Brachiator: The polling data concerning Mr Trump’s progress has been pretty much about on target since he announced. When TV land experts went wrong in their commentary about Truman’s potential, they were going with gut feelings about what they thought should happen and not what the data was reporting.

    Polling isn’t foolproof, but it can be very helpful when used in the proper way. Nothing is certain, but if I were forced to lay money on it I would take Drum’s analysis to yours any day.

  69. 69.

    Baud

    @Hal: I’m not. I can just as easily see this as the work of sovereign citizens as any other group of crazies.

  70. 70.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @Brachiator:

    but the recent stories about fund raising increasing for him

    Did you miss the stories about how campaign finance experts can’t make heads or tails of what the Trump campaign released? It was gobbldygoop. Intentionally so. They are hiding something, the only question is, what?

  71. 71.

    Gimlet

    @Keith G: ” I don’t understand why some react negatively when that happens. ”

    At the risk of a big burst of flames here, when the circumstances warrant I would like to see equal treatment under law.

    A murder suspect is a potential risk to the public. Zimmerman, for instance, got into road rage with another driver. The ordinary citizen is pulled out of a paying job, sent to jail, gets a lawyer and maybe gets out on bail.

    The body cameras “fell off” both cops, a video was available suggesting the shooting was not justified, in these circumstances the police should be treated as murder suspects.

  72. 72.

    JPL

    How tragic! They had released a picture of one of the suspect’s before I went to bed, but at that time the numbers were still low. Around three, my phone pinged, and at that time, it was ten officers, with five dead. The local CBS news at that time, said the protest itself was peaceful.

    Latest update, twelve officers and three civilians.

  73. 73.

    MomSense

    This feels different to me. I can’t think of a time in my life when things seemed so charged. I’m worried about the conventions this summer, especially Cleveland.

    That now deleted Joe Walsh tweet is really upsetting because I think that sentiment is shared widely.

  74. 74.

    debbie

    @raven:

    Probably nitpicking, but now seems more chaotic. 1968, at least in Ohio, was at the directive of the governor. Now, no one’s in charge.

    I cannot believe the citizens of Texas have no problem with seeing people walking around with tactical rifles in cammo bags. That is just insane.

  75. 75.

    Gimlet

    @Hal: “Are people assuming this was a shooting by protesters? ”

    Until forensic results, the protester could just as easily have been shot by a policeman.

  77. 77.

    Baud

    @JPL:

    They had released a picture of one of the suspect’s before I went to bed,

    There was one guy who ended up being innocent. Not sure if that’s the picture they released.

  78. 78.

    JPL

    @debbie: The picture that I saw last night was a bm with a goatee, camo pants and a long gun. Why not pretend to be with a group, because you can blend right in.

  79. 79.

    AxelFoley

    @Matt McIrvin:

    @Baud: If people who might be in personal danger under a Trump administration want to leave the United States, and have any chance of doing so, now is the time to start making preparations.

    Fuck that. I ain’t going no where. This is my country, and I’ll be damned if I let some punkass racist fuckwit and his supporters run me and mine out.

  80. 80.

    debbie

    @Mustang Bobby:

    I wasn’t sleeping very well so I listened to the BBC most of the night. You could practically hear the reporters trying their hardest not to show their disbelief at the madness in America.

  82. 82.

    D58826

    My first thought when I heard the news was please let it be some angry white dudes. Of the three possibilities – black panther type, Daesh type or kkk/neonazi type- the third group will cause the least political fall out. Sad but true

    ‘You lie’ ex critter Joe Wilson has already posted a tweet threatening race war and threatening the life of the president. Time for a little secret service visit.

  83. 83.

    JPL

    @Baud: It was on the CBS channel. It’s difficult to tell the difference between a good guy with a long gun, and a bad guy with a long gun.

  84. 84.

    glory b

    @Mustang Bobby: Joe Scarborough has said this morning that this is only resolved by leadership and Obama isn’t doing the job.

    Chuckles Todd says that there has to be a speech, someone pointed out that Obama has already made 2 extended statements and there is the time difference between here and Poland.

    Scarborough then said that neither presidential candidate is up to this.

    Trump’s phone was clearly confiscated because a sympathetic statement to all families involved was the only thing from him.

    i’m mad at he cbs talking head female who said early this morning that Obama had to “temper” his earlier remarks in light of this incident. Like sympathy towards black families can’ just stand alone, there has to be a “yes, but” qualifier. Then again, at 5:00 a.m., the A team isn’t available.

    Waiting to hear whether or not the Secret Service have decided to pay the congressman a visit.

  85. 85.

    MomSense

    These asshole snipers could have just walked down the street with their long guns during the day to set themselves up. Can we finally admit that open carry is stupid and dangerous?

    And it certainly makes it easier to blend in with the crowd and escape if carrying a long gun and wearing camo is an ordinary thing.

    This gun obsession is destroying us.

  87. 87.

    JPL

    @glory b: If 9/11 happened under a democratic president, Joe would have called for immediate impeachment. Hell is too good a place for people like him.

  88. 88.

    Brachiator

    @Keith G:

    Polling isn’t foolproof, but it can be very helpful when used in the proper way. Nothing is certain, but if I were forced to lay money on it I would take Drum’s analysis to yours any day.

    I would take that bet,and you would lose your money. Unlike Drum, I actually work with numbers for a living. And I am pretty good at what I do.

    You are using polls for cheerleading. Understandable, but that is not analysis.

  89. 89.

    JPL

    @OzarkHillbilly: Thanks for the info. It’s difficult to tell the difference between a good guy with a long gun and a bad guy with a long gun.
    Because so few civilians were hit, I assume that the snipers were well trained.

  91. 91.

    D58826

    @JPL: Didn’t you get the memo. 9/11 did happen under a democratic president – Clinton was president for a day just so they could blamed it on him.

  92. 92.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Keith G:

    Polling isn’t foolproof, but it can be very helpful when used in the proper way. Nothing is certain, but if I were forced to lay money on it I would take Drum’s analysis to yours any day.

    I still think 538 and PEC both have it about right when they estimate somewhere in the neighborhood of 20% chance of a Trump win (PEC says 15%, 538 says 22%, but with the kind of estimates we’re talking about here, those numbers are the same). He’s probably not going to manage it, but it’s not out of the range of possibility by any means, and the chance may have just gone up a bit.

  93. 93.

    Betty Cracker

    @AxelFoley: That’s the spirit!

    @glory b: Walsh is an odious, deadbeat POS who should be dragged across a bed of broken light bulbs, dipped in acid, rolled in dog shit, stuffed into a cannon and fired into a toxic waste dump. Metaphorically, of course!

  94. 94.

    debbie

    @raven:

    And here’s his subsequent Tweet defending the deleted tweet. It doesn’t seem to have gone over well.

    ETA: Ooh, reading further, Walsh has been reported to the CIA and FBI!

  95. 95.

    Aimai

    @MomSense: im assuming these shooters were white and ex military otherwise their pictures would have been released already. And they would not have been able to pick off just police.

  97. 97.

    Mustang Bobby

    @JPL: I know it sounds like tin foil hat stuff, but if they were dressed in camo and carrying high-capacity magazines, I wonder if it could be Bundy-type “sovereign citizens” trying to provoke a race war. Rank speculation.

  101. 101.

    MomSense

    @Aimai:

    I have no idea. Last night they said the suspect was a black man but I don’t know if that was referring to the guy who has now been cleared.
    My initial reaction was that it was anarchists or neo nazis trying to start a race war but I always worry about anarchists crashing peaceful protests to try and incite violence and chaos.

  103. 103.

    I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet

    @Brachiator: I believe Kevin also made the point (or perhaps it was Sam Wang at the PEC) that the vast majority of voters have already made up their minds, and that of those who haven’t, only about 50% would even consider Trump. If that’s true, then based on history, even the “small” lead Hillary has in preference voting is enough to give her a resounding Electoral College victory. And if things break her way even a little, then she could end up with a wave that is enough to flip the House.

    IOW, it would take something really big and unexpected for Trump to win. Which is kinda what Kevin was saying, as I read it.

    FWIW.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  104. 104.

    Gimlet

    Why would the State Department reopen an investigation into Hillary’s emails when they could have used the FBI’s findings to just let it drop?

    Especially in an Obama administration, in an election year.

  105. 105.

    Brachiator

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    Did you miss the stories about how campaign finance experts can’t make heads or tails of what the Trump campaign released? It was gobbldygoop. Intentionally so.

    I had been avoiding most US political news, trying to understand the implications of the UK BREXIT vote.

    I got a sense that Trump has been playing fast and loose with the facts concerning his campaign. But the LA Times and others reported this.

    Donald Trump’s accelerated fundraising in June pulled in more than $26 million, his campaign announced Wednesday, marking a rebound from the presumptive GOP nominee’s anemic haul the previous month.

    Trump raised an additional $25 million jointly with the Republican National Committee. The real estate mogul contributed $3.8 million himself.

    Aren’t these numbers, especially the RNC amount, subject to verification? Also, this was still less than the 68 million reported by the Democrats for the same period.

  106. 106.

    Immanentize

    Hello all. Early to work this morning and now I am catching up. I am so numb I dunno what. Sad. Frazzled. Angry. Helpless.

    I was thinking before I read this thread that this is how my parents must have felt in the late 60’s. Maybe it wasn’t so chaotic, but every day there was either protesters beaten or an assassination– MLK then Bobby and the conventions (crazy ’68).

    And the daily body counts from Vietnam. I think then might have been on the whole overall more pain over a long period.

    I know they worried about us kids every day.

  107. 107.

    LAO

    @debbie: I always knew Walsh was a POS, but his timeline and undeleted tweets are disgusting. I’m sorry I looked.

  108. 108.

    JPL

    This is from CNN
    Rawlings said he could not disclose the race of the dead suspect. He confirmed that the female suspect is a “light skinned African American”
    Rawlings is mayor.

  112. 112.

    Immanentize

    And just to add — the friggin death penalty in Texas didn’t do anything to deter these (or any other) murders.

  113. 113.

    debbie

    @raven:

    Well, more than one (also Daley —> Chicago), but okay. To me, though, 1968 was more of a generational thing. Now, it’s multiple things, like race, economy, etc.

  114. 114.

    D58826

    Morning JNoe is talking about how this looked like a well planned by well trained individuals. How they created a kill zone and moved from one area of concealment to another. Just off the top of my head sounds like someone with some kind of military training. If Joe is right sounds a bit more sophisticed than a bunch of gang bangers

  116. 116.

    Keith G

    @Gimlet: If my memory of what I fleetingly heard yesterday is correct, the state department will be focusing on whether or not certain employees behaved in a way which would cause them to lose their clearance level.

    I would imagine that is an investigation that involves entirely different process than what has already occurred.

  117. 117.

    I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet

    @Gimlet: State suspended their investigation because the FBI asked them to. With the FBI and DOJ finishing, it makes sense to wrap theirs up too. I’m sure it’s just formalities. They’ve already changed their procedures – anything more would be overkill.

    She was very well regarded at State. They know they’ll have to work with her again in January. They’re not going to do stupid political things, but will carefully wrap it up.

    That’s how I see it anyway.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  118. 118.

    FlipYrWhig

    @Gimlet:

    Why would the State Department reopen an investigation into Hillary’s emails

    I think they’re reopening an investigation of how the department handles classified information, which IMHO is reasonable, seeing as that was what Comey just publicly chided them for.

  121. 121.

    Tilda Swinton's Bald Cap

    @Gimlet: This was an ongoing investigation that was suspended until the FBI had finished theirs. It’s not new, even though the breathless headlines give a different impression.

  123. 123.

    Barb2

    @Baud:
    Some of the “news” reports are still using the photo of an innocent guy. He did carry a rifle no bullets in the march that’s were he was when the shots were fired.

    Here is his story.

  125. 125.

    Gimlet

    @FlipYrWhig: “how the department handles classified information”

    Perhaps the focus should be on how the information is classified to begin with.

  126. 126.

    D58826

    They are asking if they can rule out terrorism. Seems like domestic terrorism at the least.

  129. 129.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @Brachiator: That is roughly in line with what they had at TPM, tho who got what where and how is definitely open to interpretation. It will be made clear on July 20 when the next FEC filing is due.

  130. 130.

    Patricia Kayden

    @Baud: It’s just awful. The snipers don’t give a damn about police brutality. All this does is hurt BLM and others who protest injustice.

    Shooting police officers is not justified. Period.

  131. 131.

    raven

    The exFBI dude just disagreed with Joe “He was no great tactical operator”.

  132. 132.

    debbie

    @raven:

    Well, sure, but it feels to me like 1968 was a revolt against the establishment (including race), while now, it seems more a conservative revolt against anything that isn’t what they believe (ie, political correctness). But this is probably a distinction that doesn’t matter, in the larger scheme of things.

    Just found out my niece, who goes to SMU, was very close to the shooting. She didn’t text her parents she was ok until 2am. Kids!

  133. 133.

    Gimlet

    After the Republican convention I’m waiting to see Trump return to Philadelphia Mississippi to start his election bid with the politically uncorrect speech Reagan hinted at.

  136. 136.

    bystander

    @Mustang Bobby: Pete Sessions was on Moanin’ Joe and complained that Obama was in Poland. Probably loafing on our tax dollars again.

    I hate repubs. Disgusting.

  137. 137.

    Technocrat

    @JPL:

    Shit. What the hell did they think they were going to accomplish by this? How could someone misread a moment so badly?

    I still want to believe this is a false flag thing. I don’t believe it, but I want to.

    I hope the KKK sends them “thank you” cards in jail.

  139. 139.

    raven

    @bystander: And I was surprised that, up until then, his remarks were pretty even handed. He didn’t really attach any meaning to Obama being out of the country, he just said it.

  141. 141.

    JPL

    @Baud: One dead, the female and two others that they arrested at a traffic stop.
    At this point, we don’t know for sure, that the female was involved.

  143. 143.

    Emma

    @Patricia Kayden: BLM was not involved. The protest was peaceful. I understand American racists are going to frame it that way but let’s not do it ourselves, yeah?

  145. 145.

    Brachiator

    @I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet:

    If that’s true, then based on history, even the “small” lead Hillary has in preference voting is enough to give her a resounding Electoral College victory.

    The actual PEW report indicates that current voter opinion varies from history in some important ways, notably how the honesty of both candidates is viewed. And I found this little nugget to be very interesting.

    Nearly three-quarters of voters younger than 30 (74%) say they have given quite a lot of thought to the election, which is higher than at this point in 2012 (59%). But only about a quarter of young people (23%) are satisfied with their choices for president. At this point in both 2012 and 2008, more than twice as many voters younger than 30 said they were satisfied with their candidate choices (60% in 2012, 68% in 2008).

    Again, Clinton is doing well and Trump has to play catch-up big time. Still, polling is not fortune telling.

  147. 147.

    Mustang Bobby

    @bystander:

    Pete Sessions was on Moanin’ Joe and complained that Obama was in Poland.

    Because the secret gay Kenyan Muslim wanted to be out of the country when the hit came, right?

    President Obama has many talents, but predicting the future is probably not one of them, and even if it is, would he tell Pete Sessions?

  148. 148.

    Matt McIrvin

    @I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet:

    I believe Kevin also made the point (or perhaps it was Sam Wang at the PEC) that the vast majority of voters have already made up their minds, and that of those who haven’t, only about 50% would even consider Trump. If that’s true, then based on history, even the “small” lead Hillary has in preference voting is enough to give her a resounding Electoral College victory.

    There’s the possibility that the undecideds will break against her because of the liberal-leaning ones voting for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein instead (or staying home). There are more undecideds this year than at this point the last couple of cycles, and it’s probably because neither major-party candidate is well-regarded.

    On the bright side, it looks as if Bernie Sanders is genuinely going to endorse Clinton very soon, which should help get the liberal undecideds who wouldn’t say they supported Clinton because they were still hanging on the possibility of a Sanders nomination.

  152. 152.

    rikyrah

    @MomSense:
    That was my first thought. If not for open carry, in other states, the sight of someone with a rifle would be cause to alert authorities. Not so in Texas, with the utter insanity of someone being able to walk down the street with a rifle and nobody could say shyt.

  155. 155.

    Gimlet

    @Matt McIrvin:

    the vast majority of voters have already made up their minds, and that of those who haven’t, only about 50% would even consider Trump.

    My take on it is that Team Red and Team Blue will vote for their nominee, even if that nominee is a turnip. The remainder are not paying close attention and weakly invested in a candidate up til election day and will go with their sentiment at the time.

    News events, investigations, political ads, etc. generally leave an impression of one of the candidates but not factual details for these “Independents”.

  158. 158.

    Bill

    We hear all the time from gun advocates that guns are necessary to fight against an oppressive government. Dallas is what that looks like. People who feel oppressed by the government killing representatives of the government.

    In the real world “second amendment remedies” means people with grievances killing cops.

  160. 160.

    Technocrat

    Police chief on GMA:

    “The suspect said he was upset at recent police shootings. The suspect said he wanted to kill white people. The suspect said he wanted to kill white police”. Jesus Christ.

    It felt like the officer reading the statement didn’t even want to say the words.

  162. 162.

    MomSense

    @rikyrah:

    I’m a practical person so open carry has never made any sense to me. Oh rikyrah, I’m so worried about how this will escalate.

  163. 163.

    Immanentize

    @debbie: The white stuff going on in the late sixties might have been more generational, but the race stuff had been percolating for generations. What people mostly got on the news (and in our history books) was the white middle class upheaval narrative. Compare Jackson State and Kent State.

    I am very worried now about reaction moves from folks like the former rep above.

  165. 165.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @Gimlet: Maybe because their investigation has a different aim? Not “is there enough evidence of wrongdoing to take to a grand jury for indictment of someone” but “how did this set of questionable decisions come to be made & how can we adjust our systems & procedures to prevent this sort of thing in the future”–?

    (ETA: I see Keith G & Scott & FlipYrWig got their first at ##118-20. Sorry 4 redundancy. Also for repetition.)

    But of course you’re still “hoping against hope, like a breakfast sausage on the platter” that Eeebil Hillary will get dragged down so that Saint BS can be nominated, you asshole.

  166. 166.

    Gimlet

    @Uncle Cosmo:

    But of course you’re still “hoping against hope, like a breakfast sausage on the platter” that Eeebil Hillary will get dragged down so that Saint BS can be nominated, you asshole.

    Get help.

  167. 167.

    Technocrat

    @D58826:

    I work with a bunch of uber conservatives, in an neighborhood with multiple Trump signs visible. I am honestly thinking of taking a “fuck it” day today.

  168. 168.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Technocrat:

    Shit. What the hell did they think they were going to accomplish by this? How could someone misread a moment so badly?

    Historically, the people who perform public mass shootings in the US generally don’t have a keen grasp of grand strategy.

  169. 169.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @D58826:

    ‘You lie’ ex critter Joe Wilson has already posted a tweet threatening race war and threatening the life of the president. Time for a little secret service visit.

    Is this a separate tweet, or are you perhaps conflating Rep. Joe Wilson of SC (in Congress since 2001, still there) with ex-Rep. Joe Walsh of IL (one-term only, deadbeat dad, and all-round horrible human being)? They are both odious, but it was Walsh who posted the tweet(s) blaming and threatening the President. AFAIK, Wilson has been — for once in his life — a bit more circumspect.

  171. 171.

    I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet

    @raven: That struck me as well.

    No tear gas? No flash grenades? Blow the guy up when negotiations break down?

    I know it’s early and it’s just snippets, but man… :-(

    It’s a nightmare, and it’s hard to see it getting better before it gets worse. :-(

    I don’t want to hear Trump’s statement on this, but I suspect it’ll be all over the news shortly (an MSNBC in particular…).

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  172. 172.

    gene108

    @Matt McIrvin:

    in the sense of the shift that would be necessary to flip the Electoral College, is only between three and four points nationally. That’s beatable.

    That is the generic electoral college scenario we have been in since 2000. Democrats have a bit of an advantage, but Republicans need to flip ~ 3% of the vote and they can can eke out a win like Bush, Jr did in 2004.

    Trump is not the candidate to do this.

  176. 176.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Immanentize: There were basically two things going on in the late Sixties: racial conflict was coming to a head, as white people reacted to the Civil Rights Movement and black people became frustrated that they were still getting murdered; and the Vietnam War draft was setting young people (which included middle-class whites) against everyone else, which brought all kinds of associated psychosis and weirdness out into the light.

    And maybe a third thing, I guess: there was the very beginning of whatever factor X caused general crime to explode for 25 years, whether it was lead-poisoned babies reaching young adulthood or something less discretely physical.

    The economy wasn’t doing badly at all–that was later.

  179. 179.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @raven: Well played, putting that on the record for those Juicers who didn’t live through those times. Also FTR:

    At the time of those riots, the Governor of MD was a relative non-entity, an up-to-then moderate Republican & Nelson Rockefeller fanboi who’d been elected in 1966 when sane Democrats split between centrist & liberal candidates in their primary & allowed a race-demogoguing gadfly to snatch the party’s gubernatorial nomination.

    The Guv called the leaders of Baltimore’s AA community to meet with him–& shocked the entire state by ripping them a (collective) new arsehole, accusing them of not doing enough to stop the violence.

    Which brought him national attention & eventually a place on the Republican ticket–& the nation suffered Spiro Agnew as VP until his penny-ante graft from his days in MD caught up with him & led to his resignation in October 1973.

    Again, just FTR.

  181. 181.

    Immanentize

    @raven: OK, maybe not the best economic times for you? OK, maybe not the best times in any sense?

    ETA My Dad was making 28,000 a year which we all considered wealth. We moved from a little two bedroom house (there were five of us) to a place that had a bedroom for every kid (I was the youngest of three boys). That split-level cost 36,000 My mother still lives there.

  182. 182.

    J R in WV

    @JPL: The black guy with the short goatee has been exonerated, he handed his long gun off to a DPD Corporal within a few minutes of the shooting starting, while it was ongoing. Turned himself in later, was later released I think. His brother was one of the event organizers, brother had him give up the gun, got a card from the cop to get it back after things settled back down.

  183. 183.

    I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet

    @Cermet: Kudos! ;-)

    For completeness, here’s Sam Wang (possibly a repeat of something you said/posted):

    With many voters undecided, we would expect both Clinton and Trump to be currently underperforming. That is the case: In 22 Obama states, Clinton’s lead is smaller by 1.9 ± 5.6% (average ± SD). In 14 Romney states, Trump’s lead is smaller by 9.3 ± 5.8%. The difference between these numbers is different from random expectations (two-sample t-test, p=0.0001).

    Electorally speaking, Donald Trump is Romney Lite. His weakness is spread across many states, most notably Utah and Kansas, states that voted for Ted Cruz in the primaries. If Trump does not bring voters in the deep-red states home, there could be unexpected wins for Clinton. If all states within 5% went Democratic, the electoral total would be Clinton 381 EV, Trump 157 EV. This is the downside risk for Republicans.

    More at the link.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  184. 184.

    J R in WV

    @raven: I made $90/month as a seaman apprentice (E-2), which I was my whole hitch. I didn’t feel like studying a book for a test to see if I was qualified to do the stuff I did every day, including fire-fighter and bosun’s mate. And then I rejoined the real world after doing me best to ignore the mil-spec world as much as possible.

    Back then there were “locker clubs” where you could keep civvies to change into, as you weren’t allowed to keep them aboard ship. I think those went away, but maybe I just got married and had an apartment to keep that real world stuff in after that.

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