Evan Bayh to announce bid for Indiana Senate seat, replacing the current Democratic nominee https://t.co/o5PLgQdAEo pic.twitter.com/IfT4JH3X30
— Talking Points Memo (@TPM) July 11, 2016
This is intriguing especially as it moved a reach race into a toss-up race for Democrats.
With Bayh expected to get into #INSen, the Crystal Ball now has it as a Toss-up race. Here's our updated map: pic.twitter.com/H8sblu3rhI
— Geoffrey Skelley (@geoffreyvs) July 11, 2016
I was just looking at the 2018 Senate Map and it is not as fugly as I thought it had been. There are five red state Democratically held seats up (Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, and West Virginia) and a few swing state seats (Florida, Ohio, Virginia) that would be vulnerable in a lean Republican year. An unexpected seat in Indiana from 2016 would be a nice cushion.
Secondly, what do we know about Bayh — he is an opportunist, a weather vane, and conventional wisdom Very Serious Person. And those are his good qualities.
If he is willing to jump into a race that should be an uphill climb in a neutral environment, the opportunist as a concurrent indicator means things are looking good in November.
“Respect mah puuur-i-tah!”
It’s more like his PGA card to get exemptions to play on Sunday talkshows was about to expire.
Man, that comment just got iced.
Let’s see. PGA play talkshows expire
ETA, ok, no idea what got FYWP all up in a rumble. Oh well.
Evan Bayh, if you only knew him from his public pronouncements whenever actual policy is talked about, would seem like the absolute textbook example of a Midwestern Moderate Democrat (who is seemingly only a Democrat because the Republican Party has gone so off the rails they can’t personally take the label and wear it).
Even then, with the way the public itself is, you are gonna need Evan Bayhs if you want a legislative majority anytime in the near future.
Trump is such a horrible set speech giver. He is incredibly bad.
pseudonymous in nc
That the Dems have been apparently trying to recruit him behind the scenes for months is…. ugh. Is Indiana Dem politics that starved of talent that they can run somebody who promised to go home and teach, instead won the DC insider lottery, and is now coming out the other side of the revolving door?
would have been nice if he had just kept his seat, I’m sure he would have won reelection. It was annoying then, and annoying now
Oh, god, don’t scare me like that. I saw the post title and thought Hillary had picked her VP.
We need some trigger warnings around here.
All fear, all the time!
James E Powell
Is he still pushing entitlement reform and all the other Blue Dog bullshit?
I was actually pretty happy that he was no longer in office.
Dont know anything about him. Why is he so disliked?
“I am the law & order candidate!”
Yes, after promoting war crimes.
James E Powell
He’s Lieberman with about 50% less sanctimony.
@BlueDWarrior: Sigh. I remember that asshole. I really hate him. But you go to congress with the Senate and House that you can get, not the one you really want. He’s got a famous name, has already held the job, and has lots of money. I don’t think it makes sense to refuse him when just his taking the seat will help flip the Senate back to D hands. But what a jerk he was!
@James E Powell:
A blue dog democrat is better than a vicious jackel republican holding a senate seat. Does anyone think we benefitted by the replacement of e.g. David Pryor with Tom Cotton? Though I gotta admit, the examples of Joe Lieberman and Ben Nelson do give me some hesitation in my confidence about that.
@pseudonymous in nc:
No, the state has become an increasingly cesspoolic abortion of a state, housing racists, bible bangers, meth heads, and some Democrats. Nobody a nanometer to the left of Bayh would have a Bomb Pop’s chance in Phoenix to win in Indiana. I’m guessing by “talent” you mean more liberal/progressive, and while that’s certainly a great trait, it doesn’t mesh well with getting elected in Third World States like IN.
On the upside – a decade ago he would have been a VP shortlister. So…. there’s that.
I assume Barron Hill is heading for a spot in the Clinton Administration.
Indiana has been problematic for a long time. Indiana sundown towns come to mind.
@pseudonymous in nc:
Yes. Indiana’s Democratic party is in horrible shape. The Republicans basically control the entire state and have for years. They have nobody with statewide name recognition – the only reason that Joe Donnelly managed to win his Senate seat in 2012 is because the insane right decided that Richard Lugar was insufficiently right-wing and so primaried him with a person so crazy that 50% of the state had to vote for a Democrat. But only 50% of the state.
@James E Powell: The difference betweeen Bayh and Lieberman besides the priggish sanctimony is the state. We should and can and are doing better in Conneticutt. We can’t get expect a lot better in Indiana where the hope is 10% agreement or 65% agreement..
Ugh. His time has passed. Nobody wants the conciliatory, centrist dog food Bayh is selling. Even the Clintons are running away from the New Democrat legacy.
@BlueDWarrior: Agreed. My revulsion is that we will be treated to his tedious blather incessantly as his cowardice and treachery are treated as the admirable characteristics of a True Democrat.
Despite the fact Bayh is as blue doggie as they come, we need to win back the Senate. And not just by a bare majority. Bayh gives Dems a chance for a solid majority, which is extremely important. This race is going to rapidly move from toss-up to leans Dem. Bayh has state-wide name recognition, and most likely some pretty good favorable/unfavorable numbers to start.
A liberal majority on the Supreme Court is there for the taking.
Brogressivism is a hard cold reactionary lump hiding behind leftist window dressing.
Don’t fuck this up.
@BlueDWarrior: but won’t be lose some if not all of his past seniority? Or do you think that was part of the price for getting him into the race?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I’d say it’s Indiana, bedrock of the Copperheads, I believe, and re-birthplace of the 20th century Klan (again, IIRC).
again, I’d say it has more to do with Indiana voters than Indiana Dems. Given a choice between him and Strickland, or him and Kilpatrick, even him and Murphy (FL), I’d take him last, but he’d at least be a reliable vote for the USSC
Ella in New Mexico
My SIL is a Democratic County Chair in Indiana. She pretty much sums it up: “given how fucking Ugly-Republican Indiana has become, if he can pick up Dan Coates old seat I won’t kick him out of bed for eatin’ crackers.”
@Corner Stone: I heard a brief clip. Trump said he’s going to have a 24/7 VA complaints hotline in the White House staffed by “real people, not computers.” He just has no fucking idea how this shit works, does he?
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
It’s going to be a choice between him and Todd Young. That’s the real choice here – one more Democrat or one more Republican. He likely won’t be worse than Machin so there’s that.
@Betty Cracker: I gotta complaint!
@Betty Cracker: does he need to understand how things actually work? This reminds me of Perot’s instant on-line plebiscite. It sounds good to people who call their DMV or credit card company for help.
It also puts additional heat on Pence.
You can get Bayh in Indiana, or you can get nothing and keep the Senate in GOP hands. Dems need to stop being stupid and take what they can get.
Wasn’t today the day you were having the hernia consultation? Hope it went/is going/will go well for you!
(Edit: sorry, all, forgot this wasn’t an open thread.)
I’m not interested in going down the road the republicans have blazed. They squandered winnable Senate seats by nominating unelectable candidates. They’ve made Bennet’s reelection in Colorado more likely with the kook they coughed up. If Bayh can win, I’m good with it. He’ll vote with the party 80% of the time at the least. I indend to ignore him and hope he doesn’t cause too much trouble. I’d be real excited about Bayh if his family were Iowa political royalty rather than Indianna elite. I really want Grassley to pay for the stunt he’s pulled on the Garland nomination. Bayh will muck up some legislation and piss off liberal purists, but what Grassley is doing is a threat to the republic that could have long-term disastrous repercussions.
It could be worse. We could get Susan Bayh. I like her personally (she was two years behind me in law school), but she’s wicked smart and severely Republican.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
….also isn’t this what a “fifty state strategy” actually looks like? Warts and all? I would prefer someone who knew how to talk a moderate talk while selling better positions, and was the offspring of a (I believe?) beloved old political legend, but I would also prefer pizza that had all the health benefits of a broccoli and quinoa salad
If he wins I’ll take the win but hate the idea of another Blue Dog Democrat getting elected. Bayh sucked when he was there last time. I think he’ll be even more Joe Liebermann this time.
I’m glad that I’m not the only one with pursed lips reading that about Bayh.
He has the well-scrubbed look of an unprincipled opportunist.
And no opportunity to do so.
@James E Powell:
Unfortunately for him, if he is elected he will find a very different democratic caucus in the senate than the last one he served in. Many of his DLC initiatives will be DOA, so opportunist that he is he will have to adapt to this new reality and change his ways. He must know that if he is ever to get a vp or a presidential nod it will have to be as a very different type of democrat. That centrist bullshit may work in IN but it no longer flies with the national democratic base. The Bayh, Cuomo, Booker democrats with national aspirations need to make dramatic changes, to be embraced by the much more liberal democratic party that Obama and Pelosi have led.
The problem isn’t Bayh, the problem is the Senate, where these arrogant fucks like Bayh and Lieberman can freelance with impunity without negative repercussions from the party leaders. And that’s not going to change, the Senate’s been like that since 1789, with much-less-than-one-a-generation exceptions like LBJ.
(Interesting that for Rethugs, the problem children currently are in the House; Yertle is an effective Senate leader, but I guess leading a reactionary caucus in ‘NO!’ may be pretty easy.)
@Shell: Among other things, it was Bayh who trampled small children in order to be the first in front of a camera telling the President to back off the ACA within the first twelve nanoseconds after Scott Brown won the special election as senator from Massachussets.
Tilda Swinton's Bald Cap
Too bad Doghouse Riley isn’t around. It would be interesting to read what he would say about this and Mike Pence being possible GOP VP nom.
Adam L Silverman
@Immanentize: He’ll be the junior senator from IN. Just as Feingold will be should he be returned to office after leaving the Senate.
Wow, we never learn, do we?
The purity police are back again putting the emphasis in all the wrong places. It’s not Blue Dog Democrat. It’s Blue Dog Democrat. The choice in Indiana ranges from Tea Party to Conservative Republican. Getting *any* Democrat into the Senate is an unabashed victory. Stop thinking we have the luxury of holding out for the prefect occupant.
@CONGRATULATIONS!: Oh, we’ll vote for him, no worries, but we’ve had decades of experience with this guy, We are well within our rights and experiences to call him an asshole. He’s an opportunistic, sanctimonious asshole, but he’s not a crusading, god-bothering asshole like Todd Young so Bayh will get my vote come November.
This is, all too often, what politics is really like. When you get a candidate that you can whole-heartedly support and draw inspiration from, treasure the experience. Don’t expect it to become the norm.
That commercial that runs on cable all the time makes it seem like having human customer service agent to talk to is a good thing for credit card companies, so it will work great for medical benefits/treatment, right?
If you don’t want blue dogs where necessary, then don’t complain about republicans. Because that’s your choice in many states and congressional districts. I remember the Howard Dean lovers who kept their mouths shut when he said he wanted the democrats to get the votes of guys driving pickups with confederate flags.
@Tripod: You make pretty good sense, for a guy with three legs.
You bet. And Obama ignored him.
The people who vote for him have “no fucking idea how this shit works” so this brain dead populism will go over YUGE with ’em.
James E Powell
@cmorenc: @Richard Mayhew:
I get that a blue dog is better than any Republican and I get that Indiana is an impossible state for anything much to the left of Evan Bayh. But I will still have a sad every Sunday that he appears on the Sunday shows to insist that the Democrats are wrong, are going too far, and are failing to take steps to avoid deficits & shortfalls 50 years from now.
But I suppose we don’t want Joe Manchin to be so lonely.
Yeah. Obama’s presidency has given me enough examples to realize how insisting on the most progressive candidate is not the universal good I would have thought. Living in Kentucky during that period certainly helped me understand how complicated that gets.
@John D: I think people around here are pretty clear on the concept. It’s only taken a whole lot of bitter experience to make me a fan of the “any Democrat is better than no Democrat” line of thinking. Do I love Michael Bennet as the Democratic Senator from CO? No. Would I crawl over the proverbial broken glass to vote for him over his (R) opponent? Oh hell yes – with my mercurochrome and bandaid box clutched between my teeth.
Am I wrong or has it been rather quiet on the Trump front? Maybe we need one of those accident placards “Its been three days without a bone-headed comment from the Orange One.”
Okay, I stand corrected:
“Donald Trump declared Monday in a wide-ranging speech on veterans reform that he was the “law and order candidate” in the 2016 race.”
I signed up for a text alert from Hillary when she makes the VP announcement. Hopefully it won’t come through at FOUR O’FUCKING CLOCK A.M. like Obama’s did in 2008, or that I’ll at least remember to put my phone on vibrate before bed.
In red states we must be willing to accept the likes of Bayh, Mancin, and the other blue dogs. But on the flip side we must fight like hell in the blue states to make sure we have as liberal a candidate as possible short of Dinnis Kucinich.
@John D: Thank you. Well said.
Cruising Bayh’s wiki entry: this is good:
This is not so good; WTG Bayh:
This was news to me:
As burnsesq notes, he’s got the Republican wife who is a professional board member; Bayh pretty much says there’s a Chinese wall in his house and they don’t talk about her corporate interests.
But: a lot of good stands on the issues, along with stands that many/some here won’t like.
Verdict: way better than any Republican Indiana voters would york up.
And how cool to have the Hoosier State represented by two Democrats. That would be interesting.
So you’re telling me there’s a chance.
@Ella in New Mexico:
very pragmatic of her. ..I understand.
@John Revolta: That’s just the nickname his ex’s gave him.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@Adam L Silverman:
Let’s be careful how we move energy, people; declarative sentences are powerful.
@CONGRATULATIONS!: I think most everybody here is realist enough to take Bayh in exchange for a Senate majority, but people don’t have to take him and like it.
I look forward to Dem control of the Senate with high hopes. I don’t look forward to people like Manchin and Bayh banding together to be the self-annointed gatekeepers that every piece of progressive legislation is trimmed and chopped and greased to squeeze past. Small blessings, at least this isn’t Lieberman we’re discussing.
@hovercraft: We had John Barrow, the last white democratic congressman in the south. No more.
The bigger majority we have the less we have to cater to Lieberman like a-holes. Also,Bayh wouldn’t vote for fillibustering a Dem USSC candidate.
Katy Tur was on previewing his speech, the campaign wanted to make sure that he didn’t botch Dallas the way he botched Orlando, hence the taped statement and the use of a teleprompter right now. She said the campaign felt that they had been successful by preventing any major foot in mouth utterances apart from a couple of tweets last night.
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana–all toss ups. Intriguing. What’s the play to maximize our chances across that range?
@martian: “Some” feel the same way about Hillary.
@Miss Bianca: Don’t forget to get your tentanus booster.
Bayh is one of those types of politicians who instinctively and relentlessly seeks to be in the middle of all issues regardless of whether or not the compromise he suggests makes any sense or is any way helpful to the problem that is being addressed. As far as I can tell, he doesn’t really have any policy positions at all. Anything major that is being proposed by Democrats, you can pretty much guarantee that he is going to stake a claim to some territory to the right of it. Its intensely annoying. He is the archetype of the No Labels candidate.
However, that sort is still infinitely superior to giving Republicans another guaranteed vote on any important issue.
The rooster crowed three times?
the Conster, la Citoyenne
So glad I live in Massachusetts. Also, the country and the world has changed since 2010. Republicans have all shown their ass and have dropped all pretense to acting in good faith – even Evan Bayh must have accepted that by now. Hillary will get no honeymoon so will need every advantage from day one (SCOTUS), but at least she’ll have the advantage of being handed the keys to a pretty sweet ride instead of a smoking crater.
I think there is also a white democratic congressman in TN who represents a majority black district, Cohen I think.
Also, too, I am still a cheerleader for a potential wave election. If that wave brings in an asshole who will nonetheless vote for Hillary’s Supreme Court nominees, I’m fine with that.
This is a perfect example of “Politics: the art of the possible.” Bayh is exactly what we need for Indiana — a blue-dog Democrat with a chance to win. Sure, I wish he were a Sherrod Brown clone … but actually I don’t, because he’d never get elected. When you put up a big tent, some of the residents are going to piss you off some of the time — or even a lot of the time. If you don’t put up a big tent, you and a few of your good buddies end up sleeping under a leaky tarp in the rain. That’s politics. Deal.
As I see it, numbers matter. LBJ had a lot of not-liberal Senators and congressmen in Congress, but because Dems held the chair seats, he could create an alliance of liberal Dems and Republicans and get civil rights bills passed and signed.
Bayh isn’t very liberal, but he will vote for judges and reasonable legislation. So he blatehrs on the not-well-watched Sunday shows? Those shows don’t mean very much any more, and I’m willing to trade that for stuiff that does mean something.
I’m going to give a hostage right here and y’all’n can kill it at your entire convenience, somewhere later on.
The Senate is not going to change hands.
Extra bonus hostage-sauce: some time after the R convention, the entire Party machine is going to throw every resource it has, of every kind, into holding the Senate, to the neglect of the Presidency and of the House. The message will be: “If the Democrat [sic] party magages to steal the White House again [sic], we’re going to make sure that not a single Judicial or Executive Branch appointment requiring Senate confirmation will be considered. Every nomination by an illegitimate [sic] President will be Dead. On. Arrival.” Only this; nothing else. No context. No “issues”. No God-versus-Satan. No capitalism-versus-socialism. No freedom-versus-tyranny. Nothing but this. And it will work.
Wave elections start with candidate recruitment. And not shivving candidates – cough – Sestak – to settle scores.
@divF: Pre-ordered. : )
@hovercraft: Also Lloyd Doggett in TX.
Cases like Evan Bayh make the argument that getting rid of earmarks was a reform that sounded good but actually made government more disfunctional. Asking people to take votes that will hurt them at home without providing something for his/her constituency. It’s guys like the ever sanctimonious John McCain, who called earmarks corrupt that really piss me off. Years ago my community got a much needed drug/alcohol rehab center via a Larry Craig earmark. The Horror! Those earmarks also connect communities to government in concrete ways. Getting rid of them was a bad idea.
@Bobby Thomson: Yeah, I don’t know how it’s going to go here in PA. I wasn’t a big Sestak fan, but I’d never even heard of McGinty until she entered the primary. Pennsylvanians may have the dubious pleasure of having Pat Toomey around for another six years.
Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class
That there is some fine metaphorical language.
Blue Dogs ain’t our big worry. All’s we need is some asskickin’ armtwister like LBJ to get ’em in line when we need ’em.
Reid’s out. Who’s that guy in 2017?
@Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class: “Barack Obama”
Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class
This, a thousand times this.
Turtle McConnell used to be VERY adept at delivering pork, and was not intolerable so long as he had some pork to give.
Does he have a chance?
@Frank Wilhoit: please to take your wet blanket and fetid shoes elsewhere. Thank you.
@Frank Wilhoit: Humbug back to you too!
Your alternative reality might come to pass if things were different, but I can’t see it happening.
The “sensible” GOP people are running away from the Convention and the Party. Surely if they were trying to think of ways to protect the Party or the Senate, they would try to build some national infrastructure for it, right? They know Trump is a disaster so they are saving themselves and not wanting anything to do with him and his party. I recognize you’re saying that too, but I don’t think they’ll be able to get voters excited about supporting Senate candidates when he’s such a drag on them and their fundraising.
Where are they going to get the money to run the ads to keep everyone riled up to vote Team R? The GOP brand is even more toxic than usual. Brownback’s glorious experiment has obviously failed in Kansas. Obama’s ratings keep slowly rising. Etc.
I think it’s much more likely than not that we’ll have a wave this year and that the Senate will flip pretty easily (especially with Indiana in play now). I want it to be big enough to flip the House too.
Yeah, as of July 11, Sam Wang has it 49/51 GOP, but Bayh’s getting in the race obviously hasn’t been polled yet. And those polls aren’t corrected for “house effects”, etc.
I like our chances, but we’ll see.
@dogwood: can they resurrect earmarks? If they make Washington less dysfunctional, they might be a bargain.
Earmark scolds deserve no more deference than deficit scolds, perhaps.
@Raven: Sure. There’s no blood oath of fealty needed before voting for Hilz, fortunately, so those votes are just as good as those of the most devoted Hilbot. I hope she exceeds the hopes of the doubters, but lockstep isn’t healthy for a political party anyway. Dissenting views are important. (I am still allowed to hate people like Bayh and Fuckface Lieberman, I don’t care)
@Mnemosyne: Heh, what was that nonsense in ’08 about who you wanted answering the 2am (3am?) phone call? Obama was going easy on you – if he can do 2, then you gotta do at least 4.
@dogwood: and now I can no longer remember whose brilliant idea it was to get rid of earmarks. Was that a Republican-driven “wer’e going to get rid of corruption! and incidentally make governance impossible!” sort of thing?
@El Caganer: she came in fourth out of four candidates for the gubernatorial nomination two years ago. She’s an awful candidate and the president and the DSCC made a big mistake putting their weight and serious money behind her in the senatorial primary.
If McCain loses Arizona, Bayh will become the new Mr. Sunday morning.
@Mnemosyne: I was crazy for Obama, but I was pretty cranky about that text message at 4am!
This. Remember, the goal is more and better Democrats. In this case, the current office holder is a Republican, so we should be focused primarily on the “more” part of “more and better” and try to get the guy with a (D) after his name elected. Worry about replacing the Blue Dogs (i.e. the “better” part) in places where there’s a reasonable chance of electing a Democrat who isn’t a Blue Dog.
@WaterGirl: He had to wait for Joe to pull up the driveway….
If that were actually true, it would move the Sunday Morning shows substantially to the left. Even with Bayh in the guest seat.
(I don’t think it’s true – I think they’d find some other Republican to fill that seat. Because DC is wired for Republicans.)
@Face: I was a history/government major and I remember even then (a very long time ago) that Indiana was designated by many observers as the most Southern politically of a geographically not Southern state. I seem to recollect too that the KKK was quite strong there in its resurgence years in the 1920’s.
Iowa Old Lady
Iowa’s R governor today said that Iowa Rs trying to dump Trump should cut it out because the move might somehow hurt Iowa’s first in the nation caucus status, which, he said, was his main concern. Hey, good of the country be damned.
@eric: I was cranky, but still drove to Springfield IL that day so see Obama and Uncle Joe onstage together along with their wonderful wives! It was so hot that people were dropping like flies, passing out on the ground.
@Roger Moore: Here is his latest available score, for anyone who wants to decide for themselves. Whether or not he is just ‘more’ or represents ‘better’ is very much a debatable point.
O/T: I realize its just a Monday in America — but a reported shooting in a courthouse in Michigan. details are sparse.
Well, actually, I think money is coming from the Kochs and other usual Republican donors who are not opening up their checkbooks for Trump. Unlike the rank and file, they’re pretty rational actors and they’d have no problem diverting money to down ticket races where they have a much better chance.
That’s why Ds can’t let up or be complacent. Republicans can very well snatch Senatorial victories out of this—but, by the same token, Democrats have a chance.
Where “law and order” should be understood to mean “keeping Those People in line”. That must be a teleprompter speech, or he wouldn’t use a dog whistle like that.
Looking at that map, it is a bit depressing that after the Bush administration and then 6 years of Republican wankery in control of the House, there is still so much of the country that is willing to just reflexively vote for the Republican candidate.
That’s politics, I guess. I should read some Mencken for solace.
@hovercraft: I don’t know how cutting entitlements is a winning strategy for anyone. There is a tiny group that likes it, mostly people that pour billions into republican campaigns to save themselves a few hundred million in taxes.
@LAO: Shit. I had to click on it just to be sure that it wasn’t a courthouse in my brother’s county! : (
@Ella in New Mexico: I’ve voted for Oregon Blue Dog Kurt Schrader every time because Oregon outside of Portland and the college towns is very red. It’s like the longer the R’s lose the crazier they get. Schrader mostly just talks Blue Dog. We have his vote when we need it.
@Miss Bianca: I should of been more specific. Sorry.
Which is exactly why the crazy caucus wanted to get rid of them. They want a disfunctional Congress.
Bayh is a pain in the ass and will constantly be yammering about the “deficit” and controlling entitlements. Yet he will be far more progressive than any possible Republican from Indiana. Also, he will vote for moderate and moderate liberal Supreme Court appointments and most executive appointments, something no Republican will do under current political realities. So great news!
Honestly, with the House Republican at least until 2020, there is not going to be any legislation. We will be lucky to keep the Government running without a debt ceiling crisis. (Even offering Republicans a cut in the corporate rate and lower individual rates in return for a carbon tax, a free community college/2 year of 4 year school, and 200 billion a year for 8 years infrastructure, energy R&D, basic science R&D, and Health Research program above the sequester base line budget will likely find no takers) because 1) they hope to keep the economy sucky so they can win in 2020 2) their base (e.g. Limbaugh, Coulter, Ingraham, and the rest talk radio brigade and their followers) would not forgive the Republican leaders if they made any kind of deal with the Hilarybeast, the evil libruls, and all those “Muslim” minority groups.
@LAO: Nah, I would have clicked on it anyway. Because, Michigan. You can take the girl out of the Mitten State, but…
Seriously, WTF with this country. I figured courthouses were the one place these days where you *couldn’t* just whip out your piece and start shooting. : (
@Raven: Bet you’re also aware that the Repubs kept moving the goalposts on him, i.e. changing the boundaries of his district so that he kept having to move to remain a legal resident of same. They finally succeeded in 2014. He was able to eke out victories in 2010 and 2012 when at least one other Blue Dog Dem (mine), lost his seat to a lesser Republican.
They’ve since gerrymandered my district so that my minority-majority Democratic enclase was split to insure that the GOP’er will have no viable Dem opposition in the general. Although he was running scared of a an even more conservative opponent in his May primary. She tempted to label him as “establishment”. So he was, if establishment means voting everytime with a NO and in lockstep with the GOP leadership.
@dogwood: You’re right about earmarks. Pork barrel politics damn sure had its drawbacks, but we’ve seen the alternative, and it is worse. But how do we fix it?
It was a favorite bugaboo of John McCain, I know he spent hours on the senate floor reading line by line what he said were wasteful earmarks. He was the highest profile anti-earmark crusader, but it became a thing for the gop. When they ran in 2010 banning/ getting rid of earmarks was one of the things they promised the base along with repealing Obamacare. So that’s at least one promise kept.
@dww44: Of course. His ex is my doggie ophthalmologist!
Who are you kidding, in or out he will be on Sunday Talk every week to tell the nation how much better he would have handled the latest terror attack. Or how he would have handled that meeting with Putin or whomever. He will be the leader of the new shadow government.
It ain’t the sixties anymore. The Tipp Oneill “All politics is local” is increasingly irrelevant. Politics has been nationalized and political parties are less powerful. Candidates are more like independent contractors relying less on party support to get elected. And with the cost of elections at obscene levels the parties don’t have the money to make a difference like they used to. There isn’t going to be some badass majority leader who can take us back to LBJ. Reid can hold the caucus together fairly well because the Blue Dog types aren’t crazy. McConnel is a savvy operator like Reid, and he’s not a wimp, but he can’t make Ted Cruz and his cohorts do a damn thing. There’s nothing McConnell can do to Cruz to make him worry about reelection.
The Koch’s have said that the 800 somewhat million that they’ve raised will be spent on retaining the senate and other downballot races.
Because there is a large group of voters who understand “entitlements” to mean “free money for n*****s”. It all goes back to Davis X. Machina’s comment about roasting sparrows on curtain rods.
I said we needed earmarks a couple of weeks ago.
Probably the purity pony’s will have a fit. Can’t be helped. I feel pretty sad to be suggesting it. I was one of those who got really exasperated for decades before they got rid of them. As I recall the circumstances were a lot of fed up voters in both parties after a run of smelly scandals not all that related to earmarks but we needed to do something.
Congress hasn’t functioned right since. I’ll just have to put up with the spending i think is stupid in the news. The threat of default over tantrums is much worse and might not always be a threat. We will have to explain to the youngs as it does not make intuitive sense. Just experience sense.
Anybody know how the rule gets changed? Do we just need 51 senate votes or 2/3’s? What about the house? Do both have to change their rules? I don’t actually recall how it went down.
Because there is a large segment of the population that understands “entitlements” to mean “free money for ni***rs”, and they’re more than happy to hurt themselves if it means hurting Those People even worse.
@Miss Bianca: Well, with the report of two bailiffs and the shooter dead, I’d lay odds on somebody trying to blast their way in. I’d also bet it’s related to a divorce or domestic violence case, ’cause America.
If birches bore fruit, would say that Evan disproves the adage that the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.
@Poopyman: According to a news report — it was an incarcerated defendant. He grabbed a gun from a court bailiff as he was being escorted into the pens, and then proceeded to shoot both of the bailiffs.
Even more ridiculous, I think those people don’t realized that (1) they also benefit from entitlements and therefore (2) don’t realize they are hurting themselves as well.
Botsplainer, Neoliberal Corporatist Shill
I just saw that, and am seething – I can’t tell you the number of times that I’ve seen old or out of shape or dumb bailiffs slacking at courtroom deputy duties with their sidearms hanging out wide. This is what comes of treating courtroom deputy positions as sinecures for older, retired cops.
As I just told somebody, if I ever wanted to kill somebody in a courthouse, I wouldn’t have to smuggle in my own, I’d just use one of theirs.
Annoying CNN is annoying:
I left CNN’s link there at the end because, really CNN? Oh, the article continues, and you can hit the link and read it, but that’d be two minutes of your life you’ll never get back.
ETA: OK, I’ll add the details at the bottom, proving how thorough the poll is:
There are blue dogs and there are FUCKING BLUE DOGS.
Evan is a blue dog. What’s not to like? Most everything actually.
But he isn’t a FUCKING BLUE DOG. You have to ask, could it be a lot worse? If the answer is absolutely then he’s better. Not good, not who you might like, but better.
@Poopyman: What a stupid question!!!! How many of this blog think Raven should have surgery? How many on this blog think LAO should win the appeal when it reaches the Federal Appeals CT?
I think the well is poisoned in terms of earmarks. Voters from both parties wanted them gone. But it should be possible to find a way to facilitate some local spending if there’s a will among the elected representatives of both parties. As I said there’s the fact that politics is nationalized that further complicates things as well. The minute Bayh announced, the Internet and social media are lit up with liberals who live nowhere near Indianna expressing their outrage. Earmarks might not help blue dogs who bring home the bacon anymore. People are polarized and take their cues from talk show hosts, cable news, and bloggers. I don’t mean to sound overly negative because I’m really not. Things change, and people adapt. What isn’t going to happen is some return to the the glory days of LBJ.
<blockquote>Before making a similar case himself, Trump opened his remarks Monday by offering his full backing to law enforcement in the wake of the Dallas shooting that killed five police officers.
He lamented the "ongoing catastrophe of crime" in inner cities and argued police officers face similar "harassment" of the nature U.S. soldiers returning from the Vietnam War faced.
This draft dodging motherfucker. . .
Yeah, it is.
We get that majority, and we can wholesale ignore a couple of circuits in this country, because all be well once they punch up their hideous cases to the Supreme Court.
@JPL: What the hell are you talking about?
Yep. He replaced Harold Ford, Jr,, and has done a far better job in representing that district than Ford ever did.
Yeah, more is better than less, but pray he’s not your swing vote in a divided Senate.
@dogwood: it ain’t the sixties anymore
WHY DO PEOPLE KEEP TELLING ME THAT
BLM does a better background check than the goddammed gun nuts!
Dallas Cop-Killer Micah Johnson Was Blacklisted by Black-Power Groups as ‘Unstable’
I’m not a native Michigander, but I’ve spent a goodly chunk of my life there. And, like you, the “where, exactly?” was the first thing I wanted to know.
Isn’t Berrien County fairly close to where Satby lives?
It sure as shit isn’t Schumer or Durbin. The biggest reason I don’t want to see Warren as Veep is that I think she’s the best option as Majority Leader.
Can someone ask Drump what the hell he means when he keeps saying that if x does not stop we will no longer have a country. Are the protests going to cause a collapse of the federal government ? Is illegal immigration going to lead to a revolt led by immigrants, who overthrow the government and divvy up the country ? We have challenges for sure, but none of them are an existential threat to the country. And while they’re asking Drump they may as well ask Tweety the same question.
@pseudonymous in nc:
Is Indiana that starved….etc.
showed the comment to my nephew who has been living in IN for 5 years now working at a university there. His answer is “Yes, of course it is.”
I remember him comparing the move there from NY to time travel into the past..
The random sample is a feature not a bug, if properly weighted it would show 50/50 split, which would not support the narrative that this is the most important non indictment ever and it’s devastating for her campaign, therefore we must talk about it everyday.
@SiubhanDuinne: Satby lives in the westen part of the state, yes? Berrien County is far SW.
@raven: The point I was trying to make is that a question about Hillary being indicted is stupid, because we don’t know all the information. Plus, I’m not a lawyer, or a doctor. lol
I think the well is poisoned for “earmarks”. That said, the basic idea- that members of Congress actually know their districts’ needs and should spell out how some money should be spent there, rather than leaving it up to executive agencies- makes a lot of sense. Because of that, I think you could probably bring back something very similar by re-branding and making just enough changes in the details that you could reasonably claim that you weren’t doing the same old thing.
Now that is someone I would not support if he ran for his old seat, he was in a majority black district and was a rabid blue dog. Yes I know he was supposedly positioning himself for a statewide run, but since his loss to Corker his commentary on morning hoe has been nothing but blue dog DLC bullshit.
The only positive thing I can say about him is at least he didn’t switch parties like that fool from Alabama.
@hovercraft: He means that white, christians won’t have political supremacy. White christians are ‘the country’, ‘real americans’, etc. It’s just a very diluted presentation of white nationalism.
@dww44: I have lived in Indiana for the past 30 years and I have been saying, for at least the last 20, that Indiana is a southern state in every aspect EXCEPT geography.
Obviously, what he means is that if that stuff doesn’t stop then we (wink, wink) won’t have a country anymore; instead they (wink, wink) will have taken it. I agree that he needs to be asked about this so he has to admit that’s what he means, but the people he’s trying to reach know that without requiring clarification.
@John D: This. I live right over the border in MI and get the political commercials during elections, and crazy shite that would lock someone out of the running in a normal state is SOP for the Republican party there. Democratic Senate, eyes on the prize.
It’s pretty obvious and crystal clear to me.
The alternative is a strongly conservative Republican. Period. Evan Bayh is BY FAR the most liberal Senator you are gonna get from IN for the forseeable future.
Everyone wants their history to be boiled down to bumper sticker slogans. “We lost 2010 because we didn’t GOTV!”. Partially. Partially it was because we explicitly ran against members of our own party — 28 of our losses came from Blue Dogs; 22 losses, 4 retirees, 2 ran for Senate and lost — with lots and lots and lots of soundbites helpfully provided by the progressive wing because the Blue Dogs weren’t liberal enough for their tastes.
That, BTW, was 28 GOP and Tea Party freshman helpfully provided as an Own Goal by our side. Go team!
And then in 2014, we got to do it all over again, with another 7 seats gone over to the GOP from the Blue Dogs.
Thirty-five. That’s how many went over. For those keeping score at home, that’s the difference between a 247-188 GOP House and a 223-212 Dem one. Stop demanding purity. Start electing Democrats./
@rikyrah: Well, the whole package is very clear, no question. I was just referring to that statement, which I’ve heard from other politicians.
I am a Cubs fan, born and bred. If we work our asses off for a wave election but still lose, I’m used to it, but I’d rather say we tried. Wouldn’t you?
This is a video everyone should watch, from the hospital presser in Dallas.
Agree with you both, but I want them to force him to say it.
@JPL: Well, the MD said to have it and I said “ok, right after football season”!
@raven: Is there any danger in waiting?
Please be careful when out there shoveling gravel.
@JPL: There’s always danger I guess. I was diagnosed over a year ago and I’ve done lots of heavy lifting and such. The “research” seems to indicate that an asymptomatic person should have the surgery to head off complications down the road but I have stuff to do right now!
@NotMax: And dragging 50lb fish up from 300 ft!!!
1,000 Flouncing Lurkers (was fidelioscabinet)
@hovercraft: Steve Cohen took over the Memphis-area district when Harold Ford JR. decided to try and run for the Senate. As far as I can tell, he kept the Ford constituent-service apparatus in place, and as long as he continues to be attentive to the needs of his constituents, he’s likely to continue to represent them.
And speaking of triangulating triangulators, while Harold JR. is not the man his father was, I would still rather have him in the Senate than Bob Corker, even with the baggage his Uncle John must always represent. Just as Evan Bayh is an improvement over any available Republican…
Do I wish Jim Cooper was a little less of a Blue Dog? Would I rather have him than another soulless tool like Marsha Blackburn or Scott Dejarlais? Yes to both.
@raven: Well saying just be careful, is not gonna work. Why not football season? You aren’t doing heavy lifting that time of year. You are cooking!
@burnspbesq: She’d be great, if the Old Boys Network would have it.
Liz and Nancy Smash!!
@JPL: I appreciate the input. It’s a done deal.
@John D: nah, the purity ponies don’t have that much power. The blue dogs were always vulnerable because they were in marginal districts.
It’s good because it’s a good sign. They think they’re going to win Indiana.
@hovercraft: Yep, he’s mine. TN 9th, Memphis.
His opponent is ALSO a former lobbyist.
@JPL: Me. I think I should win. LOL.
@efgoldman: I like winning.
That has its own pleasures.
pseudonymous in nc
@martian: Bayh is definitely thinking of his chance to be the voice of bullshit bipartisanship on the Sunday shows, especially if McCain gets the boot.
If he’s the best candidate the state Dems can come up with, then it’ll have to do.
If he runs and wins, come January 2021 he’ll need to make it very fucking clear whether he’s going to run again or go back to the revolving door, writing another o tempora o mores about the partisan uncouthness of the Senate.
And yes, it’s a sign that the Obama ’08 states that Romney won in ’12 may be back in play. Would be nice if the DSCC were kicking Richard Burr around a bit right now, but statewide campaigns in NC are always weird.
@John D: Your narrative is as full of shit as a Christmas goose.
Go back and look at the exit polling: We didn’t get slaughtered in 2010 and lost in 2014 because ‘purity ponies’ stayed home. We got slaughtered because the youngs and the marginals stayed home. Every. Fucking. Midterm. It happens.
You ask ‘Why?’ when I say don’t let an Evan Bayh be your swing vote? Because that’s how you got ACA chopped half to death by the likes of Holy Joe and Max Baucus. The damage done by every single Blue Dog to the ACA far outstrips anything that was done by people asking for the public option. And it will happen again, whether it’s making sure that every piece of legislation is ‘safe’ for a Blue Dog or making sure that some Supreme Court nominee is ‘acceptable’ for a guy who is likely gone after this term or certain to be murdered in the off-wave election next time around – it’s not worth it when there are better Democrats in other races in safer areas who need help much more than Evan Bayh.
pseudonymous in nc
No, that’s revisionist history. The problem in 2010 was that the Dem campaign apparatus didn’t provide a compelling reason for voters to show up. As Atrios has said again and again, midterms in particular need to have a “this is what Dems are for” even if it’s mostly “Republicans will do terrible things instead.” Instead, everybody was running their own campaign strategy and all it created was a cacophany against the Teabaggers’ unified crazy voice.
And the Blue Dogs were the ones running against their own party, saying “well, we voted against this thing and that thing and the other Dem thing”, and voters in their states and districts thought, “might as well just vote for a Republican”.
@pseudonymous in nc: Nah, it’s demographics. Since the two parties have now become somewhat ideologically homogeneous, Democrats should always hold a consistent advantage among younger voters and lower income voters (often overlapping groups). And Republicans will hold an advantage with the opposite demographics.
This is going to be a challenge EVERY midterm until the ideological framework of the two parties changes. Dems need to recognize this. Turnout is going to be a struggle every midterm.
@gwangung: The Koch outfits spent a bundle on the previous cycle, but didn’t have much to show for it at the national level. If you believe this, they may spend a lot less this time:
I think we’ve all seen and heard more kinder-gentler Koch ads on TV and radio these days – it used to be “Koch, who?” when it came to business and their TV ads were very, very rare. They must be feeling pressure.
OpenSecrets’ story doesn’t sound like the Kochs are going to be giving buckets of money to Senate candidates, either:
These aren’t huge amounts of money, except maybe in Strickland’s case. Motivated voters and GOTV can overcome TV ads.
But we’ll see.
@James E Powell: Practically, the time for ‘oh noes deficits and shortfalls, cut services and moar austerity’ is the historical period we are heading OUT of. So he might just look like a complete bozo, should he try to push that agenda. It’s increasingly VERY hated, and for damn good reason.
@Frank Wilhoit: They will be scared of what Hillary Clinton can do to them and their careers. They will cave.
All that ‘OMG ruthless Vince Foster eeeee!’ cuts both ways. If they believe any of it they’ll have the fear. And good, so they should.
@Elizabelle: This. I’m warming to earmarks. Sounds like one of those things easily demonized if you have no fucking idea how government works. Also: hey! It’s weird posting after a week away, you forget which threads are totally utterly dead ex-threads! :D