Donald Trump lies a lot — so much that the individual falsehoods combine like lie-droplets to form a raging river of mendacity. Calling out every lie Trump tells would be a full-time job, and even people whose job it actually is — the Beltway press — aren’t up to the task.
In the morning thread comments, we briefly discussed a lie Trump told a couple of times yesterday: He claimed that BLM protests included a moment of silence for the cop killer. I’ll admit when I read that, it didn’t strike me as particularly ominous — Trump lies all the time, right? But I think Josh Marshall is right when he calls this a particularly pernicious lie. An excerpt:
Trump claimed that people – “somebody” – called for a moment of silence for mass killer Micah Johnson, the now deceased mass shooter who killed five police officers in Dallas on Thursday night. There is no evidence this ever happened. Searches of the web and social media showed no evidence. Even Trump’s campaign co-chair said today that he can’t come up with any evidence that it happened. As in the case of the celebrations over the fall of the twin towers, even to say there’s ‘no evidence’ understates the matter. This didn’t happen. Trump made it up.
The language is important: “When somebody called for a moment of silence to this maniac that shot the five police, you just see what’s going on. It’s a very, very sad situation.”
Then later at the Indiana rally: “The other night you had 11 cities potentially in a blow-up stage. Marches all over the United States—and tough marches. Anger. Hatred. Hatred! Started by a maniac! And some people ask for a moment of silence for him. For the killer!”
A would-be strong man, an authoritarian personality, isn’t just against disorder and violence. They need disorder and violence. That is their raison d’etre, it is the problem that they are purportedly there to solve. The point bears repeating: authoritarian figures require violence and disorder. Look at the language. “11 cities potentially in a blow up stage” .. “Anger. Hatred. Hatred! Started by a maniac!” … “And some people ask for a moment of silence for him. For the killer…”
We’re used to so much nonsense and so many combustible tirades from Trump that we become partly inured to them. We also don’t slow down and look at precisely what he’s saying. What he’s saying here is that millions of African-Americans are on the streets inspired by and protesting on behalf of a mass murderer of white cops… This is not simply false. It is the kind of wild racist incitement that puts whole societies in danger…
Trump’s entire campaign is built on the premise that the country is in the toilet and needs rescuing by…Trump. We certainly have problems, not least of which is a structurally racist justice system.
But crime rates are at historic lows. So what does a “law and order” candidate do if there’s not a real law and order problem — or at least not one of the type that he is proposing to address? Like a private sector firefighter who drums up business via arson, he lies to foment division, distrust and fear.
In the early days after the Dallas shooting, I wondered if someone had muzzled Trump. He didn’t immediately resort to fear-mongering and bigotry as he did after the Orlando shooting. He even acknowledged the pain of the families of Mr. Castile and Mr. Sterling. Looks like the muzzle is off.
Baud
The lizards just called. They want us to stop insulting them by suggesting that they have the same brains as Trump supporters.
JenJen
Really trying not to freak out over these increasingly disturbing Quinnipiac battleground state polls.
Baud
BTW, while I haven’t followed every news report, everything I’ve seen so far indicates that Hillary has been strong on this issue and has not cowered in fear of what the Village might say.
Baud
@JenJen: Hillary is doing better than Obama was at this time in 2012.
FlyingToaster
@JenJen: I’m beginning to think that Quinnipiac is the Rasmussen of 2016.
dmsilev
@JenJen: They’re pretty outlier-ish. For instance, NBC released a PA poll this afternoon showing Clinton up 6, which is a lot closer to the predominant range. Maybe Q is on to something, or maybe they’re using a bonkers ethnic weighting or something.
Schlemazel Khan
NO! ITS TRUE! The same Muslims Drumpf saw cheering on 9/11 held guns to people heads and forced a full minute of silence for the shooter in Dallas. He saw it with his own eyes so it must be true.
BR
I agree completely with Josh Marshall about Trump inciting violence.
But it’s not enough to just to say he made it up, which he did. I think we need more of the Dallas Morning News editorial, which needs to be seen by a million more people (and I hope everyone posts it everywhere). It really spoke to me and somehow broke through my cynicism. This picture in particular.
Maybe FDR’s quote is relevant — it’s fear that will compound itself. If we see that others can put aside their fear, we can put aside ours — it’s mutually reinforcing. And the media can choose to reinforce it or to dampen it.
Culture of Truth
But the NYT says Hillary Clinton is a hypocrite for criticizing Trump at a time when we need national unity.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
Dunno if this has been posted here yet, but here ya go anyway:
In March 2008, Trump Said “I Know [Hillary Clinton] and She’d Make a Good President”
Hehehe.
Cheers,
Scott.
satby
I’m pushing the “he’s a racist, you’re voting for a racist” at people who seem Drumpf curious. Even racists don’t want to be labelled as one; well except for hardcore skinheads.
MJS
@JenJen: When you feel like freaking out, take comfort in the fact that former Presidents Dukakis, McCain and Romney can provide great insight into how meaningful one pool this far out really is.
Aleta
If there exists a political IQ, the average would by definition be 100. Fear and anger cause tunnel vision and a rush for the quickest way out, or else for a tough guy to stand behind. Dangerous times despite good people everywhere.
Hildebrand
I really want the media to go after him for this one – every damn reporter should be asking him, ‘what evidence do you have of the moment of silence?’ Every day. Every interview. This one really pisses me off because it so much weapons-grade Alex Jones level bullshit.
Mai.naem.mobile
Trump is followimg Nixons strategy right down to the enemies list. Don’t forget Roger Stone, a Nixon guy, is advising him. Law and order is a Nixon meme.
Roger Moore
Everyone should understand that “law and order” is just a dog whistle for keeping uppity Others in line. That’s what it meant when Nixon used it, that’s what it’s meant when Republicans since him have used it, and that what it means when Trump uses it. It’s the same basic thing as him talking about how we have to fix this, that, or the other thing “or we won’t have a country left”. He means We won’t have a country left because They will be in control. It’s a rare instance of him using a dog whistle rather than a fog horn.
debbie
NPR (yes, yes, I know) had a really very good interview with the founders of BLM. Ari Shapiro’s a putz, but he let them each speak at length without interruption.
The audio’s not available just yet (it ran just an hour ago), but I really recommend listening to it once it’s been posted.
john fremont
@Schlemazel Khan: This. Also too, Hillary lied about sniper fire in Bosnia, so both sides do it!
BR
@satby:
Iowa Mom here had a great suggestion, which is to just say “I don’t want it on my conscience. Everyone needs to decide what fits their conscience and impacts others’ lives.” etc. Might work better on some folks.
BR
I still think the best way to counter fear is not by directly attacking its source, but by what I posted above — the Dallas Morning News editorial and things like it. And what Obama said.
Baud
@BR: I like that approach myself. It avoids the excuse that voting for Trump is somehow cool because it’s rebellious.
Omnes Omnibus
Based on the title, I was sure this was going to be a DougJ joint.
GregB
Has Trump chimed in on Theresa May curtsying before the Queen?
Very weak!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@JenJen: NBC and FoxNews both have polls out that show her much stronger than the Q. I think Fox polls have actually been pretty reliable as far as candidates go, when the wording can’t be played with as much.
geg6
@JenJen:
Meanwhile, the Marist poll shows Hilz up. I try not to get too excited about polls this early, but what I’ve seen so far this year is that Q polls are consistently over sampling Republicans. Which is a Rasmussen trick. So I’m treating them the same way as I do Rasmussen polls. Which is as a consistent outlier.
Betty Cracker
@Omnes Omnibus: Awesome song, though, isn’t it?
Omnes Omnibus
@Betty Cracker: Damn straight. I wasn’t criticizing or expressing disappointment.
Elizabelle
Who here thinks the convention might wrest the nomination away from Trump?
WaPost opinion piece (and I have no idea who; not wasting a click on this story):
(probably some soon to be former Republican Senators thinking that too.)
Any guesses on who this particular whinge-ass is?
JGabriel
Betty Cracker @ Top:
Trump tried to go the fear-mongering route in the immediate aftermath of Dallas, but couldn’t get the venue he wanted. From Josh Marshall:
Baud
@Elizabelle:
He did. In the primary. And lost badly.
@JGabriel:
I don’t get to say this often, but good for Bratton.
Felonius Monk
Sign soon to be seen on the Port-o-Johns at Trump rallies: “Take a Dump for Drumpf!”
JGabriel
@FlyingToaster:
Q-Pac has always had a mild to moderate R house bias, at least for the last several elections. I don’t think it’s politically motivated though, not in the way it clearly is in Rasmussen’s case. Q-Pac just tends to poll slightly more white people than some of the other pollsters – I think maybe they’re still relying on landlines, or have an outdated landline to cell phone ratio.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
TheHill: Poll – Trump has Zero Black Support in Ohio and Pennsylvania
He’s got MoeMentum! Bigly!
Cheers,
Scott.
Elizabelle
@Baud: Yeah, that’s what’s so amusing. Not like Kasich hasn’t been trying to step forward. They keep moving the spotlight: Look! Trump is doing … something.
And how mingey of the WaPost to make you click to find out what former Senator. Not gonna fall for that clickbait.
dr. bloor
@geg6:
The other thing is that polls are being pinched out be organizations so frequently that outliers are inevitable. The press will always run with whichever one guarantees the most eyeballs.
Although I have to say I don’t mind. I don’t want to see anyone get complacent. I want our side running to the voting booth this November like they’re being chased by Godzilla.
MomSense
@Elizabelle:
Who knows. I just hope that Cleveland gets through this event without anything terrible happening.
Keith G
@JenJen:
Grab a glass of pinot, find a comfy chair, and check out what 538 is reporting and relax a bit.
Want More? Check out Sam Wang’s electoral college map.
Nothing is certain and there is much work ahead, but we are in a good place heading in a good direction.
Technocrat
Josh Marshall has been killing it lately. His insights into Trumpism have been consistently illuminating.
ETA:
I’m guessing Ivanka left his phone unlocked.
starscream
White privilege is thinking “even if Trump wins, at least it’ll only be four years.”
SFAW
@Baud:
Any guy that can piss off/on Giuliani and Trump is A-OK in my book.
SFAW
@starscream:
That ain’t “privilege,” it’s cranio-rectal insertion.
rikyrah
BLACK LIVES MATTER, EXPLAINED, FOR PEOPLE WHO STILL SOMEHOW DON’T FREAKIN GET IT
Damon Young, 7/13/16
What is Black Lives Matter?
Black Lives Matter is a social justice and activism movement founded by Alicia Garza, Patrisse Cullors, and Opal Tometi. It derives from the hashtag #BlackLivesMatter, created in 2013 in response to George Zimmerman’s acquittal in the death of Trayvon Martin.
It uses non-violent means — hashtag activism, protests, marches, die-ins, and intentional social disruptions — to both mobilize people interested in spreading their message and, most notably, to force people who are either apathetic about or antagonistic to it to pay attention.
And while the media has appointed several prominent people — the founding women, Deray McKesson, Johnetta Elzie, and Shaun King, to name a few — as “leaders,” there’s no concretized hierarchy or organizational structure.
Also, while the Black Lives Matter movement is relatively new, it has actually existed for decades. Centuries, even.
Trollhattan
@JenJen:
Always start here.
rikyrah
My Melanin-Deficient Readers Respond to Negotiate Terms of #BLAXIT
Awesomely Luvvie — July 12, 2016
Yesterday, I published a post on what Black folks will take with us if we decided to make our exit (BLAXIT) from the United States. It was jumped off by Ulysses Burley III at The Salt Collective and basically, we are taking EVERYTHING awesome. Because we created/invented/brought them.
My white readers realized that they will be left with emptiness, and their comments made me howl. Some negotiated, some hit their wall slide, and some insisted we bring them with us. My Asian and Latinx sisters replied too, because they will be on our side: because minority solidarity.
Here are some of the conversations, from my comments and my Awesomely Luvvie Facebook Page.
Melissa: Heavens, I think us white people are down to dried peas and smallpox.
Josh: I’m just a white dude but I will miss most of this too much. Can I come along if I promise to be cool?
Tesha: Josh, because you asked nicely (and because we might need some manual laborers in Onyxica), yes, you may join us. Just know your stay will be subject to periodic reviews and you’ll be rooming with Wayne Brady.
Lauren: You’re going to leave kitten heels aren’t you? Just for spite.
Luvvie: Hell yeah. We want this to hurt.
Carly: I like kitten heels. My beauties, I will barter with you. I am going to create the IBJLC, the International Black-Jewish Lady Coalition, it will make NAFTA look like a joke. Mmmm, you’re gonna want some of this pastrami on rye, Donna Karan knits and polio vaccines. I will trade you some Law for some Jazz. <3
Jessica: We gotta take the polio vaccine and any other medicinal breakthrough based of the use of HeLa cells. Just saying.
Cynthia: Welp. With that, white society has been annihilated.
Trollhattan
@Betty Cracker:
Have seen Mavis twice in the last couple years. The lady is a force of nature and a gen-you-wine link to history. I want to take her home and have her tell stories for the next five years.
Bill E Pilgrim
CNN has “Christie is Trump’s Gut; Trump kids want Pence” chryron in huge block letters on the screen during a segment on his VP pick.
It’s not even “the jokes write themselves” at this point, CNN is just giving up and writing jokes so you don’t have to bother.
Matt McIrvin
@FlyingToaster: Rasmussen is the Rasmussen of 2016. They’ve been putting out national polls showing Trump +4 for a while now.
Trollhattan
@Culture of Truth:
Same way it’s been eight years of Republican hands off Obama because he’s the president during a time of war. Remember that?
rikyrah
VAPolitical
@VAPolitical
Donald Trump wants to block release of his Trump University testimony via @FortuneMagazine
rikyrah
Katie Schoolov
@KatieSchoolov
VP Biden: for those who didn’t like me for pushing the automobile bailout, “go to hell, it worked.” @portofsandiego
Formerly disgruntled Clinton supporter
@srv: That Colbert segment was really stupid, out of character, and reeks of CBS executive intervention. Pretty disappointed in Stephen after seeing that yesterday.
Trollhattan
@rikyrah:
Didn’t think Handsome Joe had been saving any up after the last election, but evidently we now have NMFTG Joe Ver. 2.0. You go, Joe!
rikyrah
Gregory Korte @gregorykorte 5h5 hours ago Washington, DC
White House @PressSec Josh Earnest on Justice Ginsburg’s Trump comments: “She didn’t earn the nickname the notorious RBG for nothing.”
Emma
@rikyrah: Uncle Joe never had any fvcks to give.
Baud
@rikyrah:
Hahahaha.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Martin Longman (Booman):
azlib
@JenJen:
Read http://election.princeton.edu. One poll does not a trend make. We will have to wait to see if Quinnipiac is on to something or just has a bad likely voter screen. In any case Sam Wang has some really cool analysis and methodologies.
Mike J
screenshot of report
PsiFighter37
@Formerly disgruntled Clinton supporter: Colbert’s ratings are not so hot, so he’s invariably going to try to play to ‘both sides’.
In hindsight, leaving Comedy Central was a big mistake on his part. Great opportunity, but he’s too niche.
Joyce H
@satby:
I have an idea that I’d like to see get some play, so pass it on. I’m calling it the Trump Speech Challenge. Anyone who says they’re going to vote for Trump, might vote for Trump, or will reluctantly vote for Trump because they’re really voting against Hillary – issue the Challenge.
Before they can cast a vote for Trump, they have to listen to an entire Trump rally speech, beginning to end. Not the scheduled ‘important’ ‘policy’ speeches that he reads off a teleprompter. The real unscripted stream-of-consciousness rally speech. It shouldn’t be hard, seems like they get televised live and uncut. The Trump or Trump-curious voter needs to watch and listen to an entire speech. The only reason they can cut it short and turn off the television is if they say to themselves with complete conviction, “I could never vote for that man.”
I think this would really work with a lot of the Trump-curious and those who say they are voting for ‘the nominee of my party’. I can’t watch more than a few minutes myself, but the man leaps from subject to subject like a jumping bean, he hits a point and repeats himself over and over, he does his childish imitations, he lies so blatantly that a viewer can catch it in the moment, he spews hatred, and the whole speech is about ME ME ME ME.
I think very few people can stand to watch an entire Trump rally speech and walk away from it without becoming convinced that the man lacks the temperament, the knowledge, and the decency to hold any public office, must less the Presidency. Not just that he’s probably not the best fit for the office, but that he would be uniquely dangerous in the office.
Try it with your friends and co-workers – issue the Challenge.
eclare
@Formerly disgruntled Clinton supporter: Agree, so disappointed because I loved him on the Report. He is now occasionally funny, but not witty, and often stupid enough to make you wince.
rikyrah
MediaiteVerified account
@Mediaite
Trump Says He Has No Intention of Pivoting to a More ‘Controlled, Presidential’ Mode
MomSense
@efgoldman:
NO!! I have a hunch the people who don’t get into the convention center may be even scarier than the delegates this year especially since all the open carry wahoos plan to be there.
rikyrah
Awesomely LuvvieVerified account
@Luvvie
I have been laughing at the video of Dubya getting his sway and smile on to the Battle Hymn for 4 hours. George jolly AF at a funeral.
Awesomely LuvvieVerified account
@Luvvie
And FLOTUS Shellie had that grip on Dubya and looked like she was thinking “Fix it, Jesus.” It is priceless. Dubya is a grown toddler.
Betty Cracker
@dr. bloor:
Damn straight!
debbie
@Elizabelle:
John Kasich would happily step up, only no one’s asked him to.
Shell
Hmmm, isnt that what they said about Dubya?
raven
rikyrah
NYPD cop secretly records supervisor pressuring him to racially profile black men
Here’s Audio of What Sounds Like an NYPD Captain Pressuring an Officer to Target Black Men
13 JUL 2016 AT 14:19 ET
Gawker has posted an audio recording provided to them by an NYPD officer that seems to be an exchange in which the officer is being pressured to profile black men.
The recording was made in August 2012 during a performance evaluation of New York transit officer Michael Birch. He was expecting a routine evaluation, but instead he told Gawker, “the conversation just turned completely weird to me. Because he’s basically telling me it’s OK to racially profile.”
In the recording, his supervising captain can be heard criticizing him for only stopping two black men out of 54 people.
“Two male blacks,” the man’s voice can be heard saying. “So you’re telling me you only saw two male blacks jump the turnstile?”
Birch is currently suing the department, claiming he has been retaliated against for being a whistleblower on an illegal quota system. While his original case was dismissed, he’s filed an appeal with a higher court, Gawker reports. The New York Daily News reported on the tape but didn’t publish it at the time. The Daily News says the supervisor in the tape is NYPD Capt. Constantin Tsachas.
Betty Cracker
@Joyce H: I like it!
rikyrah
Neil King ✔ @NKingofDC
Ohio white voters:
Trump, 43%
Clinton, 33%
Ohio black voters:
Trump, 0%
Clinton, 88%
— WSJ/NBC/Marist poll
1:41 PM – 13 Jul 2016
Baud
@raven:
Will be?
The Thin Black Duke
Here’s Samarai Frog of Electronic Cerebrectomy with a few words on Trump:
rikyrah
AP PoliticsVerified account@AP_Politics
BREAKING: Donald Trump seeks $10 million from former campaign aide, alleges breach of confidentiality agreement.
Baud
@rikyrah: Sometimes I wish we could give black voters the Medal of Honor.
Baud
@The Thin Black Duke:
I agree wholeheartedly. Fascist is as as fascist does.
MomSense
@rikyrah:
Hahahaha!
“Grown toddler”! I had the same thought when I saw the video.
rikyrah
Sam Jackson beginners guide to GoT
LMAO
Tazj
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Well, they have a narrative to push and bills to pay along with most of the media so they won’t be deterred. The NBC/Marist poll came out around 1pm but that wasn’t interesting enough news to them. There were also polls today from Colorodo showing Clinton with a nice lead.
Thank goodness for Joy Reid, Al Giordano, Eric Boehlert, Oliver Willis and their Twitter feeds. You get good information, and they keep nervous nelly Democrats like me sane.
ThresherK
@rikyrah: Given the MofE, couldn’t Trump be actually in negative numbers with black voters in Ohio?
rikyrah
Neil King ✔ @NKingofDC
Pennsylvania white voters:
Trump, 40%
Clinton, 40%
Pennsylvania black voters:
Trump, 0%
Clinton, 91%
— WSJ/NBC/Marist poll
1:50 PM – 13 Jul 2016
rikyrah
ATLANTA – CBS46 producer fired over racist rants about Black Lives Matter on Facebook
July 13, 2016
FTVLive earlier today posted three Facebook rants by an Emmy-winning CBS46 photographer/producer Charles Beau Menefee in which he insulted the Black Lives Matter movement, calling them “unevolved, uncivilized turds” and wondering if the protesters could be boxed in and bombed.
In fact, he wished death upon members of the group at least twice.
Mark Pimental, general manager at CBS46, said Menefee has been fired, sending me a note informing the staff of his departure with his employee photo included.
hovercraft
Trump is losing, even with the Q poll today showing him up in Florida which I find hard to believe, and tied in Ohio, winning those two would still make him a loser. Hillary had the beltway media declare her a wounded candidate because of Comey last week and these polls are from after his presser. And still after we were told she would take a big hit, she’s still ahead. So Trump is going back to the tried and true NY playbook for republicans. Fox and the NY Post have spent years race baiting in New York every single day, and Trump has been playing right along side them the whole time, even when he was supposedly a democrat. From housing discrimination, to the Central Park five, he has been a racist. He now is trying to follow the Gulliani method of stoking racial hate and fear to get elected. When the villagers talk about America’s Mayor, we who know him best have always know him as New York’s racist mayor who we could never support. It’s no accident that Trump had a regular perch on Fox and Friends for years, they built him up because he went on the show to promote racist bullshit like the birther shit.
This nonsense about a moment of silence and the 9/11 celebration is to make white America believe that the rest of us hate this country, and only they love it, and they must vote for the gop to save it from those people taking it over and destroying it. And by destroying it they mean not punishing those people enough, property owning straight people (mostly men) are the the rightful owners of this country, and anyone who does not recognize this hates America.
His schtick is not working as well as he needs it to, so he’s dialing up the racist crap to bring more white people to his side. Hey white people you may not like me, but we need to stick together because those people want to kill first the cops and then they’re coming for us.
Kathleen
@BR: Thank you so much for sharing that. I shared on Facebook and Twitter.
eclare
@Baud: I think it was Samantha Bee who had a bit on this, that every white person terrified of Trump owes a POC a free meal for keeping them from doom.
rikyrah
Washington PostVerified account
@washingtonpost
Washington got rich during George W. Bush’s presidency. Not so much under Obama
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I can see where playing that character would’ve been exhausting, and from what I’ve read his kinda nerdy nice guy persona on the Late Show is much closer to his real self, but it does not make for great TV
Steve in the ATL
@efgoldman: I gave you a shoutout at the end of the Notorious RBG thread last night, but it was after all the cool kids had moved to a newer, shinier thread.
pacem appellant
I hate the “one job” meme, but I think it makes things simple for the tradional media. Trump has a very short list of “one job” tasks. Tax returns. Cite that. If the media cannot pound the candidate with those two questions from now until election day, they can hand in their 5th rail badges.
Kathleen
@Formerly disgruntled Clinton supporter: There’s not one funny line in that whole spiel. I really detest cliched, obvious, trite, lazy “satire”. A tad OT, but I think that’s one of the reasons Obama despises MoDo. Her zingers are predictable and obvious and her intellect is lazy. Disappointed in Steven. He’s too brilliant for that.
JPL
@rikyrah: Ben Swann has the evening and night news at the station. He does a segment called Reality Check. He believes in a lot of the conspiracy theories, which is why I turned them off. It’s not a surprise that one of the producers, went off the rails. btw, The producer was released from another station, and they hired extra security after he was let go for the local CBS.
BR
@Kathleen:
Great — I hope many folks do.
I’m not a huge star wars fan but there’s truth in it (probably lifted from Eastern philosophy) that you can’t fight against the dark side, because that makes it stronger. You have to draw others toward you, not fight, to strengthen the forces of good.
JPL
@rikyrah: Ben Swann is the local CBS reporter. He has a lot of baggage on his own, since there isn’t a conspiracy theory, he doesn’t believe.
Kathleen
@efgoldman: I can’t say this enough. I’m so glad Rethugs did not pick Cincinnati (which was also in contention).
Kathleen
@JPL: He was a local reporter on Fox affiliate. Smarmy little weasel. (With apologies to weasels everywhere).
ingrediorum
@rikyrah:
“Donald Trump wants to block release of his Trump University testimony via @FortuneMagazine”
Perhaps he should hold his hankie over it and stroke slower.
rikyrah
The Lovely Plains
@DaRiverZkind
#23Ways @Beyonce @Pharrell What Gets You Killed If You’re Black in America #BlackLivesMatter
Kathleen
@rikyrah: Mainslime Media Pundits: #blackvotesdontmatter
Kathleen
@BR: Yes. I think the editorial and the video prove the truth of that.
Cat48
@dmsilev:
Norm Ornstein said the Q polls were too white. He wrote an Opinion piece for the New York Times. He feels POC are not polled correctly.
Redshift
Don’t get worked up about single polls. Single polls are only useful for clickbait and wishful thinking. I know it can be hard, but try to only pay attention to the aggregates. Sam Wang is the best, imho.
gene108
@JenJen:
I am not sure about FL polls, but every once in awhile there’s a PA poll showing Trump beating Clinton. Those polls usually end up being outliers.
Given that Trump will probably has a floor of 45% of the vote from people, who will never vote for a Democrat, Hillary’s leads in some states, though steady are not huge.
Battleground states are not called battleground states because they are a lock for one candidate or the other.
Matt McIrvin
@efgoldman:
A bunch of pollsters do that. Most of them adjust their sample according to some model to make sure the ethnic breakdown, etc. matches some reasonable model of the electorate. If I recall correctly, Quinnipiac doesn’t.
Fair Economist
@rikyrah:
Once again, Trump needs money!
rikyrah
Abby D. PhillipVerified account
@abbydphillip
Must watch: @SenatorTimScott talks about being profiled, accused of impersonating a Senator by capitol police:
liberal
@Schlemazel Khan: Actually, there _was_ cheering on 9/11. By a bunch of Israelis connected with their spy service, watching the towers come down from NJ.
burnspbesq
@MomSense:
Cleveland deserves to be burned to the ground for harboring the evil Jonathan Adler.
/kidding a little, but not entirely
Humdog
I have found more luck labeling Trump a con man than a racist. It seems some Trump curious will find a way to deny his and their own racism as not really being racist. But when you say, “I know you are too smart to fall for a bigoted con man,” they want to show they are too smart to be fooled. Examples of Trump steaks and leaving investors and T University students losing money getting conned into believing him has invariably led them to say they would not fall for such a con. yMMV
Pogonip
@Baud: Oh, stop pandering to the Reptilian-American vote.
Omnes Omnibus
@liberal: Link?
Cat48
@Culture of Truth:
The Nyt needs to read that article about how racist trump is. It goes on forever & is in their paper today.
gene108
@GregB:
She should have bowed like a real man! How effeminate!
Matt McIrvin
@Redshift: Sam Wang’s aggregate EV count just jinked way down because there was a cluster of four polls that just came out showing Trump ahead in Florida, enough to dominate his median calculations. Two of them were polls from Republican organizations, and the others were Quinnipiac and Morning Consult, a pollster that’s been fairly pro-Trump all year. But Sam’s methodology is that he doesn’t make any explicit adjustments for that stuff; he trusts median calculations to take care of weird outliers. Which is probably a fine way to do it on the whole; it just means that there are times that you’ll see a big swing from some polls of a certain tendency all coming out at once.
I think the right thing is to wait and see. Convention time is coming up soon and the Democratic convention comes second this year. If the Republican convention isn’t too disastrous, Trump may well be ahead nationally before the D convention begins, but Bernie’s endorsement of Hillary clears the way for that being a relatively effective show.
Pogonip
@rikyrah: Hee.
Do they still make polio vaccine? I can’t remember if my son, born in 1979, had it or not. I (1959) had the sugar cube.
FlyingToaster
@efgoldman: They have a very weird likely voter model (based on midterms rather than presidential elections). And July polls are notorious for being outliers, especially if you’re only calling landlines. Too many people are on vacation, others are outside playing with the kids/grandkids. So the only people who answer your poll at dinner time are a)older b)whiter and c) more afraid than the actual likely voter.
It’s really hard to properly weight your poll when you call 600 people and 509 of them are white and over the age of 55.
hovercraft
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet:
That’s unpossible the blacks and the Hispanics love him.
MomSense
@burnspbesq:
He must be awful. I suppose I should be glad I have no idea who he is.
Corner Stone
@liberal: That’s pretty rough. You have anything to go along with that assertion?
Matt McIrvin
@rikyrah: 0%? I bet I could double that!
JMG
Quinnipiac does both cell and landline calls. For whatever reason, including that they could be right, they are forecasting a slightly more white electorate in 2016 than in 2012. That is the source of their Republican lean, and of their Bernie lean in primary polling.
FlyingToaster
@Pogonip: It’s been a shot for decades. My daughter (born 2007) got the full set: Polio, Diptheria/Pertussis/Tetanus, Measels/Mumps/Rubella, Varicella, Pneumococcal, Hib, etc.
CDC.gov has downloadable charts of kid and adult vaccines.
Corner Stone
@Cat48:
Hmmm. Seems awfully similar to something I said earlier today.
liberal
@ThresherK: I thought there was a hilarious Onion article saying stuff like that about AA support for Bush, but I can’t find it.
TS
@Technocrat:
Shame his website continues to have 90%+ trump articles. Trump doesn’t need campaign staff – he has 100% the political media to run his campaign free of charge.
Current front page items
Trump seeks $10m from fired aide
GOP Rep – Obama reaped what he sowed in Dallas shooting
Hannity reportedly flew Gingrich out to meet Trump on his private plane
Trump claims he’s seen calls for moment of silence for Dallas Shooter
Carson’s longtime business manager accused of sexual harrassment
House Freedom Caucus attempts fo force vote to impeach irs head
Romney camp ….
Trump Aide ….
RNC Chair, Trump’s White, Male VP frontrunners are diverse
School Board takes transgender bathroom case to high court
Wacky fight over Virgin Is GOP delegates …
Experts say Ginsburg walks a fine line with criticism of Trump
Must be nothing new on emails – only time Hillary gets a mention
Mike J
@JMG:
538 says they have a 0.7% R lean, but overall an A-. Even the best pollsters have outliers though.
liberal
@Kathleen: that’s one of the reasons the entire fucking biosphere hates MoDo.
Mike J
@efgoldman: I mentioned it late Monday/Early Tuesday hoping a front pager would pick it up.
Baud
@efgoldman: The BJ Party, of course!
Betty Cracker
@liberal: Wow. So you’re one of those. Good to know!
Baud
@efgoldman:
Quinnipiac says I’m leading in several swing states.
liberal
@Omnes Omnibus, @Corner Stone:
It’s an old story. AFAICT it’s true.
Google eg
9/11 israeli art students
I’m certainly no truther, and certainly don’t think Israel “did it.”
Most nefarious possibility is they LIHOP.
David ?▶️Hillary/Harley Quinn 2016▶️? Koch
the most accurate pollster in the past 20 years also happens to be the pollster who gets the least attention — Pew Polling.
In 2000 they projected Gore & Nader receiving a 51% of the vote, they received 51% of the vote.
In 2004 they projected a 3 pt Bush win, it was a 3 pt win.
In 2008 they projected a 6 pt Obama win, it was a 7 pt win.
In 2012 they projected a 3pt Obama win, it was a 4 pt win.
They’re pretty fucking good. Last week they released their first general election poll and it had Hillz winning by 9 pts.
I’d focus on Pew given their track history.
hovercraft
@Baud:
umm is the double entendre a feature or a bug ?
BR
@David ?▶️Hillary/Harley Quinn 2016▶️? Koch:
538 doesn’t rate them quite as highly…
different-church-lady
Once again we need to remember Harry Frankfurt’s insight into the difference bewteen lying and bullshitting: a liar has regard for the truth and attempts to hide or distort it. A bullshitter, on the other hand, has no regard for the truth at all and will say anything at all, no matter what relationship it has to the truth, as long as he/she thinks the listener will be impressed.
By this definition, Trump is not a liar — he’s merely a bullshitter.
Frankensteinbeck
@efgoldman:
And Baud will give that double entendre to you good and hard.
different-church-lady
@Matt McIrvin:
Polling aggregates were the better mousetrap. The mice will eventually catch up.
Schlemazel Khan
@liberal:
My guess is the folks in Tehran were excited because they knew they could manipulate the idiots in DC to eliminate their nearest rival. Not sure about the other
JPL
@David ?▶️Hillary/Harley Quinn 2016▶️? Koch: As an election nears, they change their polling sample. They might get it right the last week…
Eric U.
@David ?▶️Hillary/Harley Quinn 2016▶️? Koch:
they get no attention because they are so accurate. Baked into the system. Can’t concern troll with the truth
different-church-lady
@rikyrah:
Josh Earnest? If only Dickens were alive to enjoy that.
Schlemazel Khan
@Corner Stone:
I just saw something this morning about a record number of new Hispanic registrations. I get why someone might suppose lower AA numbers than 08 & 12 (although even that is a bit dicey given Drumpf) but POC? I expect the percentage will be larger not smaller
different-church-lady
@MomSense:
What could be more terrible than nominating Trump?
J R in WV
@Pogonip:
I had Salk injection vaccine in the mid-50s and then Sabin sugar-cube vaccines in the late 50s. My family sponsored Salk vaccinations at their shop, free for every employee, every family member. Pretty sure it didn’t cost the business much, if anything.
And the family wasn’t going to take any chances, we had all the vaccinations you could get, and if that doubled up, no problems.
Just a few weeks ago I got 3 new vaccinations, well 2 new and a booster. I got the new pneumonia prevnar-13 shot, the shingles vaccination, and a booster for diptheria, whooping cough and tetanus. My doctor says I’m caught up for now.
Omnes Omnibus
@liberal: Everything that search turned up seems pretty sketchy to me.
Corner Stone
@liberal: I’m not a big fan of Googling vague search terms to find straight dope on someone else’s, honestly, sketchy as fuck assertions.
Not saying you’re a truther but if you want to say something like that existed as fact then that’s on you.
ETA, Ok, the “sketchy” term was weirdly independent of Omnes’ comment.
David ?▶️Hillary/Harley Quinn 2016▶️? Koch
Not so.
@JPL: In June of 2012 they had Obama winning by 4 pts. He won in November by 4 pts. (link)
In June of 2008 they had Obama winning by 8 pts. He won in November by 7 pts. (link)
In June of 2004 they had Bush winning by 4 pts. He won in November by 3 pts. (link)
Omnes Omnibus
@Corner Stone: Yeah, that was a bit weird.
@efgoldman: A river that catches fire.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
“all I know is what’s on the internet”
-Donald Trump
Corner Stone
@Omnes Omnibus: I’ve been watching a lot of Spartacus episodes on Starz Encore.
Omnes Omnibus
@efgoldman: I just think it merits its own category.
@Corner Stone: I don’t have that channel in my cable package.
Schlemazel Khan
@efgoldman:
I assume I got the shot early in life I don’t recall. I do recall when the oral vaccine came out though. They were giving out doses at a local community center, the line to get in was literally around the block. I was pretty young but I know this was a huge deal for my folks & everyone in that line was either a kid or a parent with kids and the talk was all about what a miracle this was. It wasn’t until later when I learned what a horror polio had been and the panic it cause every summer when there was an outbreak when that memory really made sense.
different-church-lady
@Corner Stone: True story: a few years ago I was working the Starz booth at the Cable Show (a convention and trade show), babysitting their big video wall running promo loops from their shows.
The cast of Sparticus was coming in for a photo op, and they asked me to pause the loop on a good still from the Sparticus promo for them to stand in front of. After some effort I managed to find a frame that did not involve CGI blood — a “hero shot” of Sparticus striding down a battle road. We put it up, but after a few minutes I started looking at it more carefully, especially the dead warriors by the side of the path, and noticed… “Wait, are those… entrails sticking out of that guy?”
redshirt
@different-church-lady: Wow! Give me more Spartacus dirt. I loved that show.
different-church-lady
@redshirt: Well, I don’t know anything about it, other than what I gleaned from watching the promo loops over and over and over again: lots of blood and gore and insinuations of nudity. I really should have gone into CGI blood — they seem to need quite a bit of it.
redshirt
@different-church-lady: Oh, there’s more than insinuations of nudity. There’s a lot of nudity,
Do you recall what season of Spartacus the cast was from? I ask because they had to replace the lead after season one due to him dying.
Villago Delenda Est
I haven’t read the thread, just got back from dinner, but I would like to point out that deliberately creating chaos in order to offer order and “security” is a plot point from a comic book movie. Captain America: The Winter Soldier in particular.
different-church-lady
@redshirt: I’m pretty sure it was after that, because I remember people talking about it. It was 2012.
gwangung
@Schlemazel Khan:
Actually, given trends since the 1990s. AA numbers have been going up every election cycle since then. Any analysis that ignores the longer term trend is worthless in my estimation. (Not to mention the growth in other ethnic groups is substantial enough to affect voting margins)
Villago Delenda Est
@burnspbesq: They need to pay for Johnny Football, too.
Omnes Omnibus
@efgoldman: I saw pics of an iron lung in a science text book in elementary school. By the time I was born, 1964, the disease was a thing of the past.
MCA1
@Trollhattan: Worth noting VP’s aren’t term limited?
Omnes Omnibus
@MCA1: I want young blood as VEEP.
cckids
@Matt McIrvin:
Will be an interesting comparison. In 2012, the difference in professionalism and, I guess “showmanship”, for lack of a better word, was stark. The Democrats were just so much better at getting their message across. Hopefully this year, that will be the case again.
Omnes Omnibus
@shomi:
Quantify.
Omnes Omnibus
@efgoldman: That is a cookie.
burnspbesq
@MomSense:
Ultra-consevative, bordering on Randian, professor at Case Western Reserve Law. Did most of the heavy lifting in developing the arguments that were used in the Obamacare case. Willing to see millions die in pursuit of an utterly ahistorical theory of the original meaning of the Commerce Clause.
When i rule the world, he will be drawn and quartered on primetime teevee.
Ruckus
@efgoldman:
I remember standing in line at a bank after normal hours for the sugar cube when it first came out. I was 3 or 4 yrs old. I went to school for 12 yrs with a girl with polio and had 2 friends in elementary school whose moms had it. Both of them had iron lungs in their houses and their moms spend a lot of time in them. And yes the line for the sugar cubes was long and made up of entire families.
Plantsmantx
You didn’t read about their scramble to determine and manage what his response would be?
http://www.startribune.com/after-outbreaks-of-violence-donald-trump-strains-to-project-leadership/386376641/
sm*t cl*de
@Omnes Omnibus:
The blood-transfusion / life-extension thing may require more than one donor to extend the president’s life.
Rasputin's Evil Twin
@starscream: Isn’t that what people thought with “Dub-ya”? And look at how well that turned out.
Uncle Cosmo
@efgoldman:
And lots of moms&dads were just as fast with their John/Joan Hancock. Every parent ca. 1955 was utterly terrified of polio. Crutches, braces, iron lungs fer chrissake! And the President of the USA they remembered so well (anyone with a kid in elementary school at the time would have been a teenager when FDR died) a prime sufferer. The March of Dimes!
Suddenly a vaccine! Suddenly one shot per child & parents need never fear again! The wonder is that no one was trampled to death in the rush to sign their kids up!
(FTR, one of my dearest friends contracted polio just before the Salk vaccine became available, most likely during a summer in Calcutta where his British father was posted as agent for a steamship line, & now struggles with the increasingly debilitating effects of post-polio syndrome. Try telling him, or me, about the alleged hazards of vaccines. I get a mite exercised at the very thought.)