Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Conservatism: there are some people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

Republican obstruction dressed up as bipartisanship. Again.

The cruelty is the point; the law be damned.

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

They love authoritarianism, but only when they get to be the authoritarians.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

I really should read my own blog.

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

Sitting here in limbo waiting for the dice to roll

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

When someone says they “love freedom”, rest assured they don’t mean yours.

T R E 4 5 O N

White supremacy is terrorism.

Let us savor the impending downfall of lawless scoundrels who richly deserve the trouble barreling their way.

My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

“Jesus paying for the sins of everyone is an insult to those who paid for their own sins.”

Bark louder, little dog.

Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.

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201Comments

  4. 4.

    LAO

    Tim — I’ve had two dobermans, let me ask you a question, does Max do the doberman lean? It was literally my favorite thing about both of my girls.

  6. 6.

    hovercraft

    Look at those beautiful eyes.
    Pretty Max, good doggy, now go get that bad man Doug ! He’s a bigfooter.

  9. 9.

    Tim F.

    @LAO: Max is actually pretty independent as dobermans go. He definitely leans sometimes, but mostly he finds a place where he can still see us and flops over with a sulky why-aren’t-you’paying-attention-to-me-RIGHT-NOW attitude.

  10. 10.

    NR

    So Hillary has lost her national lead over Trump. Hillary led by 6 points in this poll last month and now they’re both tied at 40. Independents have swung Trump’s way; he leads her by 12 with them. 67% of voters say Hillary is not honest and trustworthy compared to 62% who say that for Trump.

    Let that sink in: Hillary is losing to Donald Trump on the question of who is honest and trustworthy.

    And by the way, Hillary’s drop in the polls comes after a month where she spent $57 million and Trump spent $4 million.

    I remember back in January when people here were telling me that Hillary’s negatives were “baked in” and couldn’t possibly get any worse. Sure is funny to think about that now.

  15. 15.

    LAO

    @Tim F.: Very cute. Garbo (my rescue doberman) could not be in same room with me, without leaning on me — even if it was just her head on my foot. Her main issue, was that she had been starved and she never quite believed that there was going to be a next meal. It was actually pretty sad.

  19. 19.

    NR

    @Betty Cracker: “Bet me” is such a childish response to anything. It has no substance whatsoever.

    Do you care to address the facts of Hillary’s drop in the polls?

  20. 20.

    LAO

    @Betty Cracker: Isn’t it the most endearing thing! I had no idea dogs did that till my first doberman (none of my childhood dogs were leaners, I think they were all to busy trying to get away from us children).

  23. 23.

    OGLiberal

    Where I grew up in suburban NJ there was a widespread fear of Dobermans – like run home and lock the door if you saw one wandering the streets (the same was true of German Shepherds – people treated both like they were wild wolves). It’s probably because every auto shop lot has a “beware of dog” sign that featured a picture of a snarling Dobie. But every Dobie I’ve met personally (and German Shepherd – even those who despise other dogs) has been overwhelmingly sweet and friendly. Is Max in that category?

    Me? I have an Aussie. That breed is supposed to be wary of strangers – they should be, they’re supposed to keep bad stuff away from the herd/flock – but ours hates everybody (people – with other dogs she swings between nervous and passive) with an extreme passion. And our children are treated as unruly herd members who need to be yelled at loudly and often.

  24. 24.

    MomSense

    He’s so cute. I love those eyes.

    I ruined my dog’s life yesterday by getting one of those gentle leads. It’s fantastic. She did get a ton of treats for wearing it but she can’t pull her usual try to kill me tricks like running full speed down steep trails of wet pine needles. She was not at all happy about it.

  25. 25.

    Shell

    @LAO: Awwwwww.
    My pup is a Pitbull mix, and when she was younger, she didn’t do a lean, but would do a slow collapse till you were pinned to the chair and were helpless to do nothing but scritch her.

  28. 28.

    D58826

    @NR: A long time between now and November but thye numbers are of some concern. What is even more depressing is that Trump has an approval rating above that of a fire plug.

  32. 32.

    NR

    @D58826: Voters hate both candidates, but Trump may very well win the race to the bottom. This isn’t an election, it’s a dumpster fire behind a McDonald’s.

  35. 35.

    Betty Cracker

    @NR: I think it’s pretty goddamn childish (not to mention pointless and dickish) to run around shrieking doom and woe all the time. I’m asking you to put your money where your mouth is — one adult to another. You seem very confident in a Trump victory. Wouldn’t you want your favorite charity to get $100 of my money?

  36. 36.

    NR

    @eric: No. It’s possible they haven’t been released yet. The poll had a large sample, though. About 1,500.

  38. 38.

    Amir Khalid

    @NR:
    You should take May-July polling numbers with a big grain of salt; those are the least reliable numbers of the presidential election year. If I recall rightly, McCain led Obama in 2008 until after the conventions, and someone mentioned in these threads that in July 2012 Romney was outpolling Obama by a few points. That said, Donald’s glaring lack of funds and on-the-ground organisation is likely to lead to him underperforming his poll numbers. All is not lost.

  39. 39.

    Major Major Major Major

    @Betty Cracker: @NR: No it’s not, a willingness to bet indicates the courage of your convictions, and the fact that you won’t just gives more evidence that you’re a terrible concern troll.

    I’d go in on that bet. I won a not-inconsiderable amount of money betting idiots that the superdelegates would go with whoever won the most pledged delegates, during the primary.

    Speaking of all of this, time to install the troll filter on the work laptop.

  41. 41.

    D58826

    @NR: The sad thing is most of the Trump scandals are legit whereas most, if not all of the Clinton ‘scandals’ are either made up or blown widely out of proportion. The GOOPPERS are going to spend Monday night talking about Benghazi. It was a tragedy but stuff happens yet Hillary is personally responsible in the publics opinion. On the other hand W slept thru the run up to 9/11 and lied us into a war in Iraq but was reelected anyway.

  42. 42.

    Shell

    Voters hate both candidates

    Actually I quite like Hillary and know a lot of other people who do. Her unlikability is something the Media is invested in .

  43. 43.

    scav

    @D58826: Fireplug?! You are generous. Pissoire pothole more like, meaning a temporary relief to certain constipated men, but tediously noxious to anyone else and likely to complicate forward movement.

  45. 45.

    eric

    @NR: well, i looked for the Qunnipiac ones and could not find those either. Sample size means nothing. Two things matter (understanding that National polls mean less than state polls): (1) distribution among various identifiable voting groups, such that, for example, a 52-48 Male-Female split is NOT indicative of the real voting populace; and (2) are the splits within those groups generally consistent with what we know, such that, for example a 65-35 Latino split is NOT indicative of the real voting populace. In sum, to assess those factors and reasonably discuss the poll, you must have the cross tabs.

  46. 46.

    Miss Bianca

    @NR: In other words…”no, I’m not going to put up *and* I’m not going to shut up.” Dweeb.

  49. 49.

    Technocrat

    @NR:

    “Bet me” is such a childish response to anything. It has no substance whatsoever.

    Don’t be absurd. Asking people to take a financial stake in their stated beliefs is a well-regarded method of validating the degree of those beliefs. It’s why serious prediction markets use real money.

  54. 54.

    hovercraft

    Remain calm @ NR not withstanding.
    A loaded post from Greg Sargent.

    THE MORNING PLUM:

    It’s another poll freakout day, apparently: The new New York Times/CBS poll finds that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are now tied among registered voters nationally, at 40-40, with the email story taking an obvious toll on Clinton’s numbers. The key findings:

    Mrs. Clinton’s six-percentage-point lead over the presumptive Republican nominee, Donald J. Trump, in a CBS News poll last month has evaporated. The two candidates are now tied in a general election matchup, the new poll indicates, with each receiving the support of 40 percent of voters….

    Just 28 percent of voters said they had a positive view of Mrs. Clinton, compared with 33 percent last month. Asked if her email practices were illegal, 46 percent of voters said yes, compared with 23 percent who said using a private server was improper but not illegal. Twenty-four percent said she did nothing wrong.

    Those are awful numbers. But as even some conservatives (who oppose Trump) quickly pointed out on twitter, the real story here is that even if Clinton is sinking, Trump is not rising. As John Podhoretz noted, the Times poll confirms that “Hillary is deflating,” but “Trump isn’t gaining.” Or as conservative Iowa radio host Steve Deace put it, Clinton is dropping because of the FBI findings, but Trump’s numbers are “still dreadful as always.” As polling analyst Will Jordan noted, until Trump breaks out of the high 30s and (extremely) low 40s, there’s no clear grounds for Dems to panic.

    I’ve drawn up a chart to make the point, using Huffpollster’s national polling averages.

    Beyond the fact that Clinton still holds a lead after getting hit by sustained awful coverage, note that Trump has not hit 43 percent since last winter, and has not hit 42 percent since the spring. He remains at around 40 percent right now. Meanwhile, Clinton has fluctuated, hitting highs of 48 percent and 47 percent several times. She’s sliding now, but as Deace noted, that may reflect current negative information about her now bombarding voters. It could reverse again, just as it has in the past.

    This basic difference isn’t just evident in the national polls. Mark Murray and the First Read Crew took a hard look at the multiple state polls released yesterday (which also prompted a freak-out), and concluded that while Trump is closing the gap, there is also this crucial point:

    These polls — which mostly show Clinton either ahead or tied in these battlegrounds — were all taken during or after Clinton’s roughest week of the general election, with FBI Director James Comey’s rebuke over her emails. So you could view these battleground numbers as a floor for Clinton, while Trump is still unable to break 40% in many of these states.

    This core dynamic is central to how Democrats view this race. They have undertaken a concerted effort to drive up Trump’s negatives with the explicit goal of preventing him from expanding his appeal. That’s why the pro-Clinton Super PAC, Priorities USA, has been pumping many millions of dollars of ads into the battleground states, ads that use Trump’s own words and antics to sow deep doubts about his temperament and fitness to be president.

    The goal is to prevent Trump, whose campaign is all about winning blue collar whites in the industrial Midwest, from making inroads among college educated whites, which would limit the potential of Trump’s strategy of courting white backlash. (This may also drive up turnout and Clinton’s vote share among nonwhite voters, which would make the white-backlash strategy even tougher to pull off.) Polls suggest Trump may end up being the first GOP nominee in decades to lose among college educated whites — see Ron Brownstein’s terrific analysis on this point — and Democrats are targeting suburban and Republican women in particular to try to make this happen.

    As Paul Begala, a senior adviser to Priorities USA, put it to me in an interview: “Trump wants to build a wall. I want to build a ceiling.”

    Now, it is of course very possible that Trump will begin to rise, or that Clinton will continue falling. Things could change once Team Trump starts spending big on ads and Team Clinton’s ad barrage no longer goes unanswered. But the point is that, even if it is true that Clinton is sliding, there is still no evidence that Trump can expand his appeal in the manner he needs to. And that’s why senior Democratic pollsters are not terribly alarmed and believe we can’t really have a clear sense of where this race is going until the conventions have passed. We will learn whether Trump really can consolidate moderate Republicans who may be struggling to come to terms with him, and grow.

    Meanwhile, the efforts to keep that ceiling firmly affixed in place are continuing today, with a new Clinton ad campaign.

  55. 55.

    Tracy Ratcliff

    @NR: The Reuters/Ipsos poll from Tuesday had Sec. Clinton’s lead increasing from 10% to 13%, with 1500 subjects. Average that with the NYTimes/CBS poll and you get a 7.5 percent lead, the same lead the polling averages have had since March

  57. 57.

    Amir Khalid

    @Iowa Old Lady:
    There’s that thing about Hillary: she’s vastly more popular in office, because she knows what she’s doing and she gets to show it, than as a candidate making promises about what she’ll do.

  60. 60.

    OGLiberal

    Jeez…almost every comment I make on this blog is about politics and goes through no problem – profanity and all. I respond to this one and all I talk about is dogs with no profanity and it’s in moderation. What’s up with that?

  61. 61.

    Technocrat

    @Iowa Old Lady:

    She’s been voted the Most Admired Woman in the world for most of last 20 years.

    Gallup’s most admired man and woman poll

    The high mark for most appearances at number 1, the most admired woman in the world, belongs to Hillary Rodham Clinton who served as the 67th United States Secretary of State from 2009 to 2013, United States Senator representing New York from 2001 to 2009, First Lady of the United States during the presidency of Bill Clinton from 1993 to 2001, and First Lady of Arkansas from 1983 to 1992. She has ranked number 1 for 20 of the past 23 years (1993–2015).

    I’d argue it’s likely that she is the most admired woman in the world, but she is hated and feared by her political foes. Polls during political contests would reflect this.

    If she’s not the most admired woman in the world, Gallup has been wrong 20/23rds of the time.

  62. 62.

    WaterGirl

    @Amir Khalid: @Iowa Old Lady: Hillary really needs to stop with the robo calls where she’s literally shouting and screeching at me: “In my first 100 days…”

    That’s what I hear in the time it takes me to hang up the phone. When caller ID says “Washington, DC” I know not to pick up the phone, but sometimes the calls aren’t identified as such, and I’ve probably answered half a dozen times over 2 months.

    Reasons it makes me so cranky: #1 they should have a system that lets them know how long people stay on before they hang up. If she only gets 5 words out before they are gone, they should really stop calling. #2 If someone has hung up on her shrieking before, why do they repeated call back? Shrieking gets more appealing with repetition? #3 They should figure out that it’s 2016 and the whole “keep calling until you catch them at home” thing no longer applies because there’s this thing called caller ID.

    Seriously, the shrieking at me again yesterday put me back at least 3 months in my ability to tolerate Hillary Clinton. She is not helping herself. It’s one more unforced error.

  64. 64.

    Iowa Old Lady

    @Technocrat: It’s an interesting difference, and some political scientist probably has an explanation. Or maybe not, since she’s a unique figure given her history and role as the first female nominee by a major party.

  66. 66.

    CONGRATULATIONS!

    I ruined my dog’s life yesterday by getting one of those gentle leads. It’s fantastic. She did get a ton of treats for wearing it but she can’t pull her usual try to kill me tricks like running full speed down steep trails of wet pine needles. She was not at all happy about it.

    @MomSense: I didn’t like the idea nor the fact that the dogs obviously hated them, but I’m required to use them (I raise Guide Dogs). Well, let me tell you what, it’s the difference between my Golden choking himself to death every time he sees something distracting, which is about ten times per second, or behaving like a normal dog and not strangling himself. So Halti/Gentle Leader is now in full use in this raiser’s household, and my little guy is just going to have to get used to it. He HATES it. Too bad.

  67. 67.

    JMG

    @WaterGirl: All robocalls do for any candidate is piss off their supporters who get the calls. I don’t know why anyone does it. My friends in DC must wonder why I don’t pick up their calls, but when caller ID shows 202 area code, I ignore it.

  68. 68.

    Bobby Thomson

    The chicken littles need to explain how Trump can win when:

    He’s getting zero percent – not a typo – of the black vote.

    He’s losing the catholic vote.

    He’s, if not losing the Mormon vote, not exactly nailing it down.

    He’s losing the college educated vote, the first time a Republican did since Adlai Stevenson.

    He’s getting 40% at best of the female vote.

    Clinton is getting 70+% of the Latin vote, as opposed to 2004, when Junior got a majority of it.

    If all those tends hold and turnout just reaches 2004 levels, he’s cooked. So tell me how he improves his standing with any of those groups? Especially with Gingrich?

  70. 70.

    hovercraft

    @eric:
    Click over to tp politica usa to see the charts

    The new Quinnipiac polls show Trump leading Clinton 43%-41% in Pennsylvania, 42%-39% in Florida, and tied with Clinton 41%-41% in Ohio. These numbers do not match national polling, which has shown no movement towards Trump, so what’s going on here?

    To understand why Quinnipiac’s polls are always more favorable to Trump, it is important to look at the assumptions that Quinnipiac makes about the composition of the 2016 electorate. Each Quinnipiac University poll assumes that white voter turnout will go up, African-American turnout will stay the same, and Hispanic turnout will drop.

    The chart below shows white voter turnout in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania in 2012 versus Quinnipiac’s 2016 projections:

    quinnipiac-white-voters

    If Quinnipiac’s white voter turnout was adjusted to actual voter turnout levels, Clinton would lead by 3 points in Pennsylvania, 5 points in Ohio, and be tied in Florida.

    However, the oversampling of white voters is only half of the problem. Quinnipiac’s polling also underrepresents minorities.

    Quinnipiac University is polling an electorate that is extremely favorable to Donald Trump. Any Republican is going to win a presidential election if white turnout increases and minority turnout drops. The reality of turnout statistics is that the opposite has been happening. White turnout has been decreasing while non-white turnout is growing rapidly.

    Quinnipiac is projecting an electorate that is nothing like who are likely to vote in November.

    Since their polling is built on flawed assumptions that are not going to happen on Election Day, no one should take Quinnipiac’s pro-Republican polls seriously. Quinnipiac University’s polling is deeply flawed and a perfect example of why the media and voters should not treat all polls as credible.

    Bottom line we need to get out the minority and womens’ vote to crush him like the roach that he is.

  71. 71.

    chopper

    @Amir Khalid:

    You should take May-July polling numbers with a big grain of salt; those are the least reliable numbers of the presidential election year.

    it’s like you’re asking homer simpson to shut up about flanders already.

  74. 74.

    CONGRATULATIONS!

    Hillary really needs to stop with the robo calls where she’s literally shouting and screeching at me: “In my first 100 days…”

    @WaterGirl: She does have a voice made for still photography. Unbearable to listen to. I love what she’s saying, just can’t bear to actually listen. Much prefer to read. She’s obviously spent some time with a voice coach but there’s only so much you can do when the raw material is lacking.

  76. 76.

    Major Major Major Major

    @WaterGirl: I’d imagine that the robocalls aren’t for you.

    In 2008, we used them as part of GOTV as part of the “bug the everloving crap out of you until the SoS shows you’ve voted” campaign. I’m not sure what they’d be for now, but it’s probably some similar thinking.

    @Iowa Old Lady: Studies show that women, particularly those in a position of authority, get viewed considerably less favorably as soon as they start asking for something.

  77. 77.

    gogol's wife

    @WaterGirl:

    I’m much more positive about her than you are, but I agree that the robocalls are a ridiculous tactic. I don’t even know where to go to tell them to stop. I do not recall Obama doing this. He would have actual people calling, yes, but not robocalls.

  79. 79.

    trollhattan

    And another thing!

    The final California primary Field poll (considered the most reliable in this commie paradise) had Hilz and Bernie in a dead heat, a great prediction of her 8-point win.

  80. 80.

    gogol's wife

    I wish people would not engage the troll. He’s obviously just trying to depress us and distract us from discussing how we have to

    CRUSH TRUMP

    Watching polls obsessively is keeping you from DOING SOMETHING TO CRUSH TRUMP. Do something, anything. Send money, volunteer, talk to your friends. It was depressing at a party last night to hear a 20-something son of a friend say, “Yeah, Obama said we’d have racial harmony and free healthcare, and 8 years later, what do we have?” I couldn’t believe the ignorance. And this is someone whose father moved heaven and earth to move his family to the U.S. I wish I’d really engaged with him, but it was time to go home, and it didn’t seem worth it. But I think I need to be more vocal from now until November.

  81. 81.

    WaterGirl

    @JMG: Agree. This one seems worse, though, because she’s yelling at me. No more 202 calls for me, either. I guess if the caller is a friend, they will leave a voicemail.

  84. 84.

    J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford

    I don’t understand how 6% of people thinks less of her after not being indicted. “I was going to vote for Hillary Clinton until I found out there was no evidence of intentional wrong-doing and that should would not be indicted.”

  85. 85.

    hovercraft

    This headline from the GOS made me giggle:

    Donald Trump’s GOP convention is a high school play about an evil queen and her sex-crazed partner

  86. 86.

    MattF

    @JMG: Thanks to Caller ID, I don’t answer the phone any more. If you want to talk to me, identify yourself and leave a message.

  87. 87.

    gogol's wife

    @J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford:

    They don’t pay attention to the actual words being said. They hear “e-mail scandal, scandal, scandal.” If you asked one of them what exactly she did with her e-mail, they would not be able to answer you.

  88. 88.

    hovercraft

    Here is some more encouraging news, but they are still July polls which don’t mean much.

    CO-Sen: Monmouth: Michael Bennet (D-inc): 48, Darryl Glenn (R): 35 (Clinton 48-35)

    IA-Sen: Marist: Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 52, Patty Judge (D): 42 (Clinton 42-39)

    OH-Sen: Marist: Rob Portman (R-inc): 44, Ted Strickland (D): 44 (39-39 tie)

    PA-Sen: Marist: Katie McGinty (D): 47, Pat Toomey (R-inc): 44 (Clinton 45-36)

    WI-Sen: Marquette: Russ Feingold (D): 49, Ron Johnson (R-inc): 44 (Clinton 45-41)

  89. 89.

    gogol's wife

    @MattF:

    I’m not a big fan of Pierce, but I co-sign every word of that one. Righteous. I hope AL frontpages it!

  91. 91.

    WaterGirl

    @Iowa Old Lady: I’m not exactly sure how to parse that sentence, but maybe you’re saying that all campaigns are annoying? This seems worse to me. There I am happily cooking my dinner and I pick up the phone and suddenly someone is yelling at me. I find that particularly unpleasant, not just annoying.

    Adult children of alcoholics are especially disturbed by yelling and loud noises, so maybe that’s part of it. Or maybe it’s just that there’s not a single “yeller” in my life and I’m just not used to it. But it bothers me.

  92. 92.

    FlipYrWhig

    I get the impression the Angsty Knucklehead Brigade (Lance, NR, et al) thinks that Bernie Sanders would be flourishing under these conditions. IMHO after Orlando and Dallas headlines would be blaring about how in a dangerous world voters want the reassurance of an ass-kicking no-nonsense strongman like Donald Trump, and Team Bernie Sanders would have been a leaky rowboat trailing by double digits.

    And also IMHO, if Trump were in such a strong position, opportunistic Republicans wouldn’t be making such a point of staying as far away from him as possible.

  93. 93.

    Brachiator

    The only thing as meaningless as NR’s rambling about current national polls was last night’s Rachel Maddow Show. She went into the history of VP candidates, showing a TV political ad making fun of Spiro Agnew in 1968, and clips of an inadequate child looking Dan Quayle in 1981, before blasting possible Trump VP candidate Mike Pence.

    Sometimes Maddow can be laser smart. Other times, like last night, she is too smug and facetious for her own good, seeming to miss her own point and turning a segment into a political shaggy dog story.

    Agnew, Quayle, Pence might all be lame or in the case of Agnew, found to be crooked. But the larger point, which could have been made in 5 minutes, is that often the VP choice is totally irrelevant to voters, and attack ads against VP choices, whether witty, snarky or hard hitting, are often a waste of time and money. Also, the debate performance of VP candidates is quickly forgotten. Nobody gives a shit if voters have strong feelings for the presidential candidate.

    I think that Palin hurt McCain. But after people made their judgment about Palin’s lack of ability, subsequent attacks or defenses added little. Trump supposedly is going to make his grand announcement tomorrow, and I think that his devoted supporters will not care one way or another. They love Trump. The rest is commentary.

  94. 94.

    FlipYrWhig

    @gogol’s wife:

    They don’t pay attention to the actual words being said. They hear “e-mail scandal, scandal, scandal.” If you asked one of them what exactly she did with her e-mail, they would not be able to answer you.

    I’m not sure the majority of _reporters who had reported on the email ‘scandal’_ would be able to tell you exactly what she did with her email.

  95. 95.

    WaterGirl

    @hovercraft:

    Bottom line we need to get out the minority and womens’ vote to crush him like the roach that he is.

    I can get behind that! Also, thanks for highlighting that information.

  97. 97.

    Iowa Old Lady

    @WaterGirl: Yes, that’s what I meant. I’m not getting any robocalls, so I haven’t heard her volume or tone, but sadly, her voice can be abrasive, and it sound like this would drive me crazy.

  99. 99.

    FlipYrWhig

    @J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford:

    I don’t understand how 6% of people thinks less of her after not being indicted.

    I think it’s “Well, I’m still going to vote for her, but this episode seems vaguely dirty for reasons I can’t quite explain.”

  100. 100.

    WaterGirl

    @Major Major Major Major: Studies show that women, particularly those in a position of authority, get viewed considerably less favorably as soon as they start asking for something.

    That’s very interesting!

  102. 102.

    FlipYrWhig

    @Major Major Major Major: Often Maddow seems to enjoy herself too much when she’s basically wasting time. I think she goes too far into Jon Stewart territory, like, “Haha, isn’t this some crazy shit?” And Stewart does earnestness plus exasperation as a shtick. Maddow is supposed to be covering the news. When there was that original confrontation between Stewart and Maddow on her show, where she said she and he did similar things and he reacted kind of badly to it, in the heat of the moment I thought he was being a dick. But in retrospect I think he was more right than wrong.

  107. 107.

    NR

    @Technocrat: This isn’t about my beliefs, this is about what the data shows. And saying “bet me” doesn’t engage with the data at all. Which is why it’s a childish response.

    Hillary has lost ground to Trump after a month in which she outspent him by $50 million. This is not my belief; this is data. People here can put their heads in the sand all they like, it won’t change that.

    But hey, Bernie Sanders is a commie or something, so that means Hillary isn’t a horrible candidate I guess.

  108. 108.

    I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet

    @WaterGirl: We never answer the phone unless we recognize the number these days. If people want to leave a message, fine. If not, their loss. We never give over the phone, either – it’s too easy to get scammed.

    We’ve never gotten a Hillary call – knock wood! :-) Lucky you!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  109. 109.

    Origuy

    Google Street View has given the world a look at your neighborhood. That is, unless you live in the remote Faroe Islands. Google hasn’t sent one of their cars there yet. A resident there got tired of being left out and attached a camera to the back of one of the 80,000 sheep living on the islands. SheepView360.

  112. 112.

    NR

    @Shell: Polls have consistently shown that the public intensely dislikes Hillary. You and your friends might like her, but that puts you in a pretty small minority.

  113. 113.

    Anoniminous

    Oh, I am heartily tired of hearing about what Trump is going to do. Some of you always seem to think he is suddenly going to turn a double somersault, and land in our rear and on both of our flanks at the same time. Go back and try to think what we are going to do ourselves, instead of what Trump is going to do.

    With apologies to General U. S. Grant

  115. 115.

    gwangung

    @NR:

    This isn’t about my beliefs, this is about what the data shows.

    As a person who was trained in data analysis and had years of graduate study on the methodology, it’s definitely about your beliefs.

  118. 118.

    Bobby Thomson

    @NR: you don’t really think that, though. That’s what the data show conclusively.

    ETA: every post implicitly is about the poster’s beliefs. If it isn’t, it’s a straight up troll.

  119. 119.

    Elizabelle

    Mike Pence?

    Srsly? Guy in trouble with his own re-election, and Indiana might get two Democratic US Senators?

    Why not Newtie? Does he get Secretary of State?

  120. 120.

    Major Major Major Major

    @WaterGirl:

    One Harvard study found that “when participants saw female politicians as power-seeking, they also saw them as having less communality (i.e., being unsupportive and uncaring), while this was not true for their perceptions of power-seeking male politicians.” Power-seeking men were seen as strong and competent. Power-seeking women were greeted by both sexes with “moral outrage.”
    Thus, the single worst thing a female politician can do to herself is to look for a job in politics. We can accept women in power, but not women’s desire for more of it.

    The Price of Power: Power Seeking and Backlash Against Female Politicians

    When participants saw male politicians as power-seeking, they also saw them as having greater agency (i.e., being more assertive, stronger, and tougher) and greater competence, while this was not true for their perceptions of power-seeking female politicians.
    When participants saw female politicians as power-seeking, they also saw them as having less communality (i.e., being unsupportive and uncaring), while this was not true for their perceptions of power-seeking male politicians.
    When female politicians were described as power-seeking, participants experienced feelings of moral outrage (i.e., contempt, anger, and/or disgust) towards them.
    Participant gender had no impact on any of the study outcomes – that is, women were just as likely as men to have negative reactions to power-seeking female politicians.

  121. 121.

    Brachiator

    @Major Major Major Major:

    That Maddow program sounds entertaining, educational, and relevant. What’s the issue?

    Maddow buried the lead. She showed a clip of Quayle bumbling after being introduced and a clip of Quayle being schooled in the VP debate, presumably so that her audience could wallow in their smug remembrance of Quayle’s ineptitude.

    But in the 1980 presidential election, Bush kicked Mike Dukakis’ ass. So, how would the time wasted showing Quayle be educational or relevant? As for entertaining, it was barely that.

    Similarly, she went into a big wind up about a 19 second TV commercial with an unseen character laughing at the idea that Nixon had picked Agnew. And then went on about how Agnew was a bum who was later shown to be a crook. None of this had a damn thing to do with the fact that the commercial had absolutely no impact on the 1968 election and obviously didn’t help Hubert Humphrey win.

    But Maddow sure was happy to show this bit of history to us, and to talk about how the unseen character’s laugh clearly indicated that he was nauseated over the idea that anyone would vote for a bum like Agnew. Cause you know, Agnew was a dope. Who got elected along with Tricky Dick.

    And none of this slog through history tells us a damn thing about Trump’s selection of a VP. Or political strategy. Or political TV commercials. Or anything.

  124. 124.

    Shana

    @trollhattan: Sheesh. What a d*ck. “You’re on my driveway”? It’s a public road, with lines painted on it and everything. What kind of idiot thinks that’s a valid argument? And what did he think they were doing that was wrong? Mystifying.

  125. 125.

    burnspbesq

    There are more things in heaven and on earth, dear NR, than are dreamt of in your data.

    Or, alternatively,

    Ah blow mah nose at yew, you silly NR and all your so-called daaaaaaaaaata.

  126. 126.

    Miss Bianca

    @NR: Polls have consistently showed that she is the most admired woman in the world. Wow, if she’s as bad as “polls” say, how much everyone must hate literally EVERY OTHER WOMAN IN THE WORLD.

  128. 128.

    hovercraft

    @burnspbesq:
    So is Roll Call, so it might be true. That must have been some breakfast spread he fed them yesterday. If true then the kids won out as they wanted Pence, while Drumpster wanted Christie. So Mr. Excitement it is.

  130. 130.

    NR

    @gwangung: Hillary has lost ground to Trump in the polls after a month where she outspent him massively. That is an objective thing that happened. Belief doesn’t enter into it.

  131. 131.

    hovercraft

    @MattF:
    Hey Matt can you get my comment out of moderations, it’s been in there for about an hour, I think it should be ready by now. Thanks.

  134. 134.

    hovercraft

    @Elizabelle:
    And if it’s him he has to drop out of the governors race by tomorrow afternoon per Indiana law. Which apparently would make many Indiana republicans very happy.

  137. 137.

    NR

    @Miss Bianca:

    Polls have consistently showed that she is the most admired woman in the world.

    Have you actually bothered to look at that “most admired woman” poll you keep trumpeting?

    Hillary got exactly 13% of the vote in it. So yes, for 13% of the people, she is the most admired woman in the world. Meanwhile, 60% dislike her.

  138. 138.

    Dork

    @Punchy: Maybe he can give Trump Pence-sylvania? The whole pick makes me Pence-ive. Time to Pence-il him in as the Veep, I suppose.

  139. 139.

    Schlemazel Khan

    @srv:
    Adams is so full of shit hud eyes are brown. He is a glibitarian asshole with strong fascist leanings. He hates Democrats in general and HRC in particular. It is safe to ignore the weinnie

  140. 140.

    Miss Bianca

    @NR: Yes, I have, NimRod. And, you know, if you and other Berniebots had put half – one-quarter – as much energy into GOTV efforts as you do into pouring “doom and gloom from the tomb!!!” on top of everything related to HRC, we could *all* be treated to the spectacle of Bernie Sanders polling 20 points behind Trump now. Just sayin’.

  141. 141.

    Betty Cracker

    @NR: Plenty of people in this thread and the previous one you defaced with your relentless chicken little-ism are engaging you on “the data,” which is about as useful as engaging a banana slug in a discussion about theoretical physics. My task was to call your bluff and expose you for the worthless concern troll that you are. Mission accomplished.

  142. 142.

    hovercraft

    @MattF:
    Sorry I was trying to multi task read your name as TimF.
    EDIT And yes I know apart from the F no similarity.

  143. 143.

    gwangung

    @NR:

    Hillary has lost ground to Trump in the polls after a month where she outspent him massively. That is an objective thing that happened. Belief doesn’t enter into it.

    You’re making correlation into causation and rejecting alternative hypotheses, hypotheses are supported by history.

    TOTALLY about belief. As I said, you don’t know jack about data.

  147. 147.

    hovercraft

    @Betty Cracker:

    says:

    July 14, 2016 at 12:41 pm

    Miss Betty can you get my comment out of moderations, it’s been in there for about an hour, I think it should be ready by now. Thanks.

  148. 148.

    burnspbesq

    @NR:

    Fine. It happened. What you haven’t even attempted to explain is why anyone should care.

  150. 150.

    Chyron HR

    @NR:

    Have you considered the hypothetical possibility that not everybody answering these polls considers “dislike” or “unfavorable” to be synonyms for “I spend every day fantasizing about killing the bitch who stole the nomination from Bernie”?

  151. 151.

    Technocrat

    @NR:

    This isn’t about my beliefs, this is about what the data shows. And saying “bet me” doesn’t engage with the data at all. Which is why it’s a childish response.

    She’s not betting you that the data is wrong. She’s betting that Clinton will win. There’s a difference between the two – this particular poll could be accurate and Clinton could still win.

    Hillary has lost ground to Trump after a month in which she outspent him by $50 million. This is not my belief; this is data. People here can put their heads in the sand all they like, it won’t change that

    It’s also true that the size of her GOTV operation is multiples of his. That’s data. In both the 538 and PEC electoral maps she crushes him by 70+ EV. That’s data. The underlying demographics of the race vastly favor Clinton, and will likely continue to. That’s also data.

    Its all data. Interpretation of the data is where it intersects belief.

    ETA: @gwangung: said it more accurately.

  152. 152.

    Elizabelle

    OK.

    So NR = Nasty Ratfucker.

    We should not engage. Do they go away, after a while, if they don’t get a rise, these Hillary-deranged troll commenters?

    Alternatively, maybe put NR Nasty Ratfucker on a 30-minute delay? Would take some of the pleasure away, and teach patience?

  153. 153.

    JPL

    @hovercraft: I just streamed 24/7 and put on local abc news, all of them led with Pence. In other words Trump once again, wins the news cycle. Why raise money, when the media will run your ads for free.

  154. 154.

    hedgehog the occasional commenter

    Those eyes! That face! Of course I’ll give you all the toys and food, puppeh….

  155. 155.

    Mike J

    @pamelabrown53:

    How do you install a “troll filter”? I really don’t need to continuously read a diarrhea mouth like NR spewing doom and gloom and panic.

    Step 1: On firefox,first install the greasemonkey extension. Greasemonkey allows you to run scripts on a per site basis. You’ll probably need to restart your browser after installing it. I don’t recall what is needed under chrome (I think you may need tampermonkey) or safari.

    Step 2: Get a filter, either Chuck’s troll-b-gone, or Cleek’s filter(I would link,but link count will put me moderation). Chuck’s will block not only the troll, but all responses to him.

    Step 3: Read balloon-juice.
    With chuck’s filter, the word “block:” will appear next to the timestamp on a comment. click it, and that person will be clocked. To unblock, click “unblock” on one of their blocked comments.

  156. 156.

    Elizabelle

    @JPL: Winning the news cycle. With Mike Pence.

    Bit like winning the news cycle for shooting a hole in your own boat.

  157. 157.

    Chyron HR

    You can tell Clinton’s going to lose, because every single post today has someone camped there to post “Surrender Dorothy Hillary” every five minutes.

  158. 158.

    Brachiator

    @Major Major Major Major:

    Thus, the single worst thing a female politician can do to herself is to look for a job in politics. We can accept women in power, but not women’s desire for more of it.

    Apparently early in her career, Theresa May wanted to be the first woman prime minister. She was ambitious and not afraid to express her desire to become a leader. She had to settle for becoming the second woman prime minister, and today the UK papers are all acknowledging her quiet power as she calls ministers to Number 10 Downing Street to assemble her new cabinet. A few ministers who thought they were keeping their jobs have been surprised to find that they have been sacked, loyalists have been rewarded, and a few old opponents now find themselves out in the cold.

    Government watchers not only accept May’s power, but are enjoying watching her wield it. The Guardian live blogged various ministers walking to doom or reward.

    I look forward to American pundits having to deal with a Hillary Clinton administration.

  159. 159.

    Elizabelle

    @Chyron HR: Yup. 155 or so comments, and “NR” appears with 54 matches. (Some, regrettably, us engaging with it.)

    Working overtime.

  160. 160.

    NR

    @Technocrat:

    In both the 538 and PEC electoral maps she crushes him by 70+ EV. That’s data.

    That data is mostly based on old polls. As newer polls are factored in, Trump’s chances go up. Even in 538’s model, Trump has gained almost 10% in a week.

  161. 161.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    I’ll just include what I wrote earlier:

    Trump-Pence?

    Has a very Dickensian ring to it, somehow.

    “Jacob, do collect before that child dies. Eight shillings and trumppence. Or we’ll be faced with drawn curtains and complaints about the cost of burial and never see the money we’re owed.”

    Fitting, really.

  163. 163.

    Schlemazel Khan

    Sometimes I wish I could have an alternative universe where I could have Bernie win the primary just so I could compare what these inflamed assholes would post about how Drumpf was beating Bernie and how America hates him so much and how even Scott Adams knows the after Dallas (the event or the 80s tv show) people are running away to Drumpf. That would be fun to see.

  165. 165.

    NR

    @gwangung: That’s rich considering that people here flatly refuse to consider a hypothesis that looks increasingly likely these days: that Hillary’s email scandal did significant damage to her as a candidate. Instead, people here just say “Hillary’s email scandal doesn’t matter and won’t matter because fuck you, that’s why.”

  166. 166.

    Gravenstone

    @NR: Hey fuck for brains, a post just for you

    Pulled out the highlighted aggregate data:

    Pennsylvania: Clinton +3.2
    Florida: Trump +0.2
    Ohio: Clinton +1.3
    Colorado: Clinton +7.0
    Iowa: Clinton +4.3
    Virginia: Clinton +4.0
    North Carolina: Clinton +0.7
    Georgia: Trump +4.2
    New Hampshire: Clinton +2.7

    Take your Chicken Little bullshit and shove it up your ass.

  170. 170.

    JPL

    @Elizabelle: It might tamper down the rules committee, anyone but Trump group. If they think it’s Pence, they might withdraw their objection.

  171. 171.

    scav

    Well, not all aggrieved men have public roads they claim as their own personal driveways. Some have data points that they insist can only point to certain inevitable conclusions, ignoring all other possible influences because data occur in a vacuum and do not have to be weighed in light of other data or metadata or well, anything.

  173. 173.

    Tilda Swinton's Bald Cap

    @Cacti: Never seen it, not once, and I look at almost every post, whether I comment or not. It might as well be a Republican shill, if not it’s a useful idiot for Republicans.

  174. 174.

    Technocrat

    @NR:

    All true. But he’s currently getting crushed in both models. It seems your objection is that we’re not forecasting what the forecast would be if the trends continue.

    But why assume the trends will continue? If she went from +6 to tied, she can certainly go from tied to +6. You’re not wrong about the data, but you are down in the noise, claiming significance.

    When both 538 and Sam show Trump wins, I promise to worry.

  176. 176.

    Tilda Swinton's Bald Cap

    @NR: Stop lying.

    Sam Wang today:

    Snapshot – Clinton 310 EV, Orangutan 228 EV
    Meta Margin – Clinton +2.96
    Clinton win probability – random drift 65%, Bayesian 80%

  177. 177.

    I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet

    @Brachiator: Rachel should either have a 30 min show, or she should spend much more time interviewing people and do much less of the 20-minute-wind-up-with-old-grainy-video-clips-introduction-to-a-topic-that-you-already-agree-with-me-about shtick that she does every night (unless she’s changed – we haven’t watched in months).

    She’s a great talent, but she’s unbearable (for me) to watch with the format her show has.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  178. 178.

    trollhattan

    @Shana:
    The burbs and sticks are full of guys just like him. One commenter says he’s a “commercial pilot’ which, if true, means he could lose his job to the relief of sane people everywhere. The anti-Hillary bumper sticker is icing on the cake.

  181. 181.

    I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet

    @Elizabelle: I read somewhere in the last few days that Pence has poor prospects for re-election in Indiana, so hitching himself to Trump is about his only hope for staying relevant in politics. Trump wins? Great for him. Trump loses? It won’t be Pence’s fault, but he’ll have more status and chits to call in for his next campaign.

    I’m not sure (heh) that tying himself to a boat-anchor like Trump makes a whole lotta sense, but maybe it does in Teabagger land where up is down and evil is good.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  182. 182.

    sherparick

    @NR: I am all in with Charles Pierce on anyone voting for Trump or supporting him passively by either staying home or voting for a 3rd party candidate.

    “….Damn all the people who will vote for him, and damn any progressives who sit this one out because Hillary Rodham Clinton is wrong on this issue or that one. Damn all the people who are suggesting they do that. And damn all members of the media who treat this dangerous fluke of a campaign as being in any way business as usual. Any support for He, Trump is, at this point, an act of moral cowardice. Anyone who supports him, or runs with him, or enables his victory, or even speaks well of him, is a traitor to the American idea….” http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/news/a46695/donald-trump-candidacy-american-democracy/

  183. 183.

    Brachiator

    @Schlemazel Khan:

    Barzini is dead. So is Philip Tataglia. Moe Green stracci Cuneo. Today I settled all family business.

    Exactly what Theresa May said when asked about Michael Gove.

  184. 184.

    Brachiator

    @I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet:

    Rachel should either have a 30 min show, or she should spend much more time interviewing people

    This might help. Sometimes she’s on fire, but too often she seems so interested in having fun with her staff and enjoying her own brilliance that she doesn’t deliver a show that is worth watching.

  185. 185.

    ruckus

    NR sounds like a Scientologist. Data is a big deal with them, all decisions are based upon data. Doesn’t have to be good data, doesn’t have to be the right data, the data just has to be presented properly and it’s accepted.

  193. 193.

    Shell

    Just saw that theres gonna be an “Absolutely Fabulous” movie. There are some things to live for.

  194. 194.

    Matt McIrvin

    @OGLiberal: Dog breeds that get a reputation for viciousness end up being raised and abused by vicious people who are seeking to create vicious dogs, so they end up vicious and the cycle continues for a while. The specific breed that gets the treatment varies from decade to decade. In the 19th century, it was the bloodhound, if you can believe it.

  195. 195.

    Barb2

    @MattF:
    Everyday I get a call on my cell phone – phone number not give and unknown caller. There is no way to know who is calling. I do not answer calls with absolutely no information.

    Is this happening to anyone else. From MattF’s comment I think you are getting unknown caller and no phone # listed.

    PITA

  196. 196.

    Barb2

    Love the doggie photo. I had a Dobie years ago. She though she was a poodle and thus a lap dog.

    This dog breed gets a bad reputation, when it’s the owners who fuck up.

    My current Chihuahua is the nasty one – he thinks he rules the world. My first Chi loved every one. Individual Differences within the breeds.

    More dog, cat, parrot, pig, Hedge Hof, Ferot photos please.

    Heard – Hot Hot Hot by Arrow from Montserrat – in Trader Joe’s yesterday. That is a very long song. Some folks couldn’t help themselves, they were dancing to the Hot Hot Hot beat. Arrow’s song holds up after all these years. I like little moments that can overpower the stich of Trump.

  199. 199.

    satby

    @WaterGirl: I use that technique for all calls that caller id doesn’t show is a friend. Anyone who knows me will least least a brief “trying your cell” message. If I don’t recognize the number and they don’t leave a message, I just delete it.
    I never ever deal with telemarketers, robocalls, or anything else as a result. It’s a beautiful system.

  200. 200.

    hedgehog the occasional commenter

    @Barb2: Yes. I don’t answer calls from numbers I don’t recognize. If they won’t leave a message they are not worth my time.

  201. 201.

    NJDave

    I think folks should check out “NoMoRoBo.com”. You have to set your phone to ring at your home and at Nomorobo, which they show you how to do. When it rings at NoMoRoBo, it runs the number through a blacklist and hangs up if there’s a match. So you only answer your phone if it rings 2x. It’s worked really well in our experience.

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