Speaking of how time changes everything… Netroots Nation 2016 (St. Louis, MO) starts today:
The big picture: We amplify progressive voices by providing an online and in-person campus for exchanging ideas and learning how to be more effective in using technology to influence the public debate. Through our annual convention and other events, we strengthen the community, inspire action and serve as an incubator for ideas that challenge the status quo and ultimately affect change in the public sphere.
The big event: The 11th annual gathering of the Netroots will be held July 14–17 in St. Louis, MO. Netroots Nation 2016 will include 90 panels, 45 training sessions, inspiring keynotes, film screenings and other engaging sessions designed to educate, stimulate and inspire the nation’s next generation of progressive leaders.
Each year, thousands of bloggers, newsmakers, social justice advocates, labor and organizational leaders, grassroots organizers and online activists come together to make new connections, hone their organizing skills, share best practices and build stronger relationships with others working on the issues they care most about. And each year, some of the brightest minds in progressive politics come to Netroots Nation to speak with—and hear from—our community…
Anybody here going to attend over the weekend?
When it comes to political conventions… I know some of you don’t have the best opinion of Twitter, but 140-character bursts of info as it happens seems quite well suited for this particular chore:
Twitter is going to livestream the Republican and Democratic National Conventions right here https://t.co/Mz0YtNBZvX
— WIRED (@WIRED) July 11, 2016
Meanwhile, Chaos Lord Trump continues to drive the permanent GOP establishment before him…
At GOP convention, "it’ll be like a hostage video of people forced on stage.” https://t.co/0wYUzbcgav
— Ed O'Keefe (@edatpost) July 13, 2016
Trump: You really shouldn't nominate me.
RNC: That's just Trump being Trump.
— Noah Rothman (@NoahCRothman) July 13, 2016
Kushner, Christie, Carson … Trump is a fucking dignity vampire.
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) July 13, 2016
Trump has only taken the dignity of people who offered it up willingly, plus Jeb Bush. https://t.co/sfFjsqrlNo
— Josh Barro (@jbarro) July 13, 2016
Schlemazel Khan
I yield to no one in my loathing of all things Family Bush but I do admit I came as close to feeling sorry for on this winter. What Drumpf did to JEB? was humiliating, I felt like I was on the school yard watching a bully beat a handicapped kid and nobody would raise a finger to stop him. It was enjoyable at first I admit as the whole family deserves some abuse but after a bit it became painful to watch.
Baud
I was going to watch the RNC, but then they released their speaker’s list. I don’t think I can handle the bile. Might opt for YouTube videos of puppies and kittens playing instead.
Randy P
Feeling a little grumpy as today is the last full day of vacation before we fly back across the Atlantic tomorrow.
Plus I’ve learned that my return to work is going to be extra special as Philly’s commuter system SEPTA discovered structural flaws in almost all their cars. The “improved” schedule announced in the referenced article means that I will have to rise at 4 am to go to work for the remainder of the summer.
(In the regular schedule I get up at 4:30, but still…)
satby
Good morning! Where’s rikyrah, I seldom beat her to the thread ?
I just realized it’s Thursday, in the heat of earlier in the week I seem to have misplaced a day. Ugh.
rikyrah
Good Morning ?, Everyone ?
Baud
Re: Netroots Nation, they don’t seem to be advertising any big shots speaking this election year. Not good.
Baud
@rikyrah: Hey you.
PsiFighter37
@Baud: Not surprising. Not to be an asshole, but the netroots has lost a lot of its influence over the course of the Obama administration. It’s a naturally oppositional force, not one that lends itself to supporting the party in power.
Also, I read that Armstrong Williams is getting sued for groping a male aide. Pass the popcorn, please!
Eric S.
I’ve never watched the conventions other than a few key speeches in certain years. I’ve never found them particularly interesting. Over the past 10 or so years, and especially the last 7, the GOP has become so hate filled and so incoherent I can’t watch them on TV at all. I just have to read summaries to know what they are up to.
Baud
@PsiFighter37:
Nah. That’s a choice. Oddly, they advertise that they had big shots appear in past years.
Botsplainer, Neoliberal Corporatist Shill
I’m thinking that White Christian America has earned and in fact deserves Donald Trump as its champion. He is the perfect exemplar of the brand – ignorant, brash, full of unearned swagger, reckless, racist, misogynist, greedy, a con and a big fake as to the intentions that he assures everyone to be good.
And yes, if he wins, America deserves what it gets, good and hard. The white olds, who support him in big numbers and view their prejudices as more important than their economic policies lives (whose circumstances will diminish). Youth, who either won’t turn out or who will have been seduced by the piper’s tune of progressive purity. Progressive purists who intentionally dampen enthusiasm and turnout in favor of utopia. Independents who can’t bother to make the effort to vote. Minorities who don’t show up out of habit. They all deserve it.
The blame also falls on us for not making every effort to get people to the polls!
My pledge, should Trump win, is to go all-in on granny starving, as Medicare and SS for those 55 and younger will be first on the block. The oldsters should experience the same market miracles as the rest of us. Also, those military moochers should have to have a stake in their own healthcare, so no more comprehensive benefits from either the VA or DOD. By God, there is surely some company that will step into the gap to offer health insurance for active duty military…
rikyrah
@Baud:
I think Twitter will be your friend during the Convention.
rikyrah
@satby:
Morning ?
p.a.
@Schlemazel Khan: Couldn’t have happened to a better band of kleptocrats. Too bad Trump wasn’t active in 2000. He might have derailed the Shrub.
debbie
@Baud:
I think the highlights on the evening news should tell me all I need to know about the RNC.
Just One More Canuck
from the tweets
“Trump has only taken the dignity of people who offered it up willingly, plus Jeb Bush”
reminds me of the lines from O Brother Where Art Thou;
Delmar: Oh son, for that you sold your everlasting soul?
Tommy: Well, I wasn’t usin’ it.
Punchy
Whats the purpose of Netroots? Is that the DKos version of CPAC?
p.a.
Save the electricity. To experience the Republican convention, especially since it’s July, find a garbage truck doing pickups, the hotter the day the better, and drive behind it for a while. Or to save gasoline also, find a seafood restaurant dumpster on a 90 deg. day and set up a lawn chair.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: I used to watch both conventions, then I quit drinking.
Barb2
Back in the 80s Washington State GOP was taken over by the religious right. Nut case end of time religious right. The real Republicans left the GOP and some joined the Democratic party. This take over happened in the caucuses – the new leadership bragged about how easy the take over was. This take over was reported in the two leading newspapers.
The Religious right take over happened in many other states. The GOP of our parents and grandparents has been dead for 3 decades, not all Republicans were aware of the death of their party – they continue to vote the big R – being used by corporate and right-wing religious extremist.
I think the Republican National Convention sounds like it will be an Irish Wake, filled with drunks and con men. Trump is what the GOP has become.
Baud
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I can easily watch the DNC. The worst you’ll see is something corny.
Botsplainer, Neoliberal Corporatist Shill
One more thing – he’s a red tie wearer. At some point decades ago, some consultant said that red ties with dark suits connote power. As a result, every old white asshole at some point gravitates to the red tie once they read that bit of “information”. I used to work for one of them for about 18 months – it was a nightmare.
My money is on him showing up in a red fucking tie.
Baud
@Botsplainer, Neoliberal Corporatist Shill: Now I’m going to be watching for the red tie every time I see him.
tybee
@Botsplainer, Neoliberal Corporatist Shill:
i recall when there was a “yellow power tie” that seemed to be part of the C-level uniform back in the day
Patricia Kayden
From the polls being highlighted on NBC and ABC, it appears that Trump and Clinton are tied in national polls.. That is scary as hell. I really hope Secretary Clinton gets a big bounce out of the Democratic Convention and then starts taking off in the polls.
@Botsplainer, Neoliberal Corporatist Shill: The problem with your theory is that if Trump wins, many of us who didn’t vote for him will get it hard and good. Under Bush, many innocent people (who didn’t vote for him) got caught up in his foolishness.
debbie
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
I used to like watching the floor votes, back when they meant something.
Botsplainer, Neoliberal Corporatist Shill
@Baud:
Google “Donald Trump Red Tie” image search.
Kay
@Punchy:
Basically. It’s bloggers and various paid organzers (they work for liberal orgs and labor groups) and then “issue people” – volunteer activists who are trying to promote issues rather than candidates. That’s the division, really, the difference between a political campaign or campaigns and “affordable health care” or “criminal justice reform” or “voting rights”- issues. Issue promotion is a longer-term project. It lasts longer than one President or cycle and it’s much more granular- specific. On voting rights, for example, a campaign might say “Hillary Clinton will protect voting rights” and a voting rights discussion at a Kos panel would be “here’s the lawyer who brought the 2008 Ohio case that upheld early vote”.
Botsplainer, Neoliberal Corporatist Shill
@Patricia Kayden:
It means we didn’t work hard enough.
Eric U.
I just hope Cleveland is smart enough to dress their cops in as much protective gear as they can. Good use for that surplus military gear
Baud
@Botsplainer, Neoliberal Corporatist Shill: I’m scared to.
rikyrah
@Patricia Kayden:
This is where I say: 270 to win.
It is not a national poll, but polls in about 10 states that matter.
But, we still have to work on GOTV.
Iowa Old Lady
I don’t think I’ve ever actually watched a convention, just clips of high (or low)lights.
The idea of a Benghazi night just makes me tired. The whole list of speakers does.
Patricia Kayden
@rikyrah: @Botsplainer, Neoliberal Corporatist Shill: Yep, we have to work extra hard this year to make sure everyone who can vote, gets to vote because this world cannot afford the craziness of a Trump Presidency.
Betty Cracker
@Botsplainer, Neoliberal Corporatist Shill: What about the million or so Iraqis who died after GWB decided to take his Oedipal drama global? Did they deserve it? How about the poverty-stricken children in the US whose suffering and privations increased under a Republican administration? They had it coming?
Elizabelle
The Mustache of Understanding has had a come to Jeebus moment that still evades his colleague David “Bobo” Brooks. (dmsilev and a few other Juicers have touched on this column already in earlier threads.)
Most interesting about Friedman’s column: it’s a swipe at what the Republican party has become. He calls them out. He does not leave them wiggle room, should the nomination be wrestled away from Trump at the convention, and his fellow media might say “look, a grown-up.”
NY Times, Tom Friedman: The (G.O.P.) Party’s Over
[Friedman hopes we would get gun control — an Assault Weapons ban at minimum, infrastructure rebuilding, a carbon tax, and actual improvements to Obamacare.]
It’s a great column, although Friedman studiously avoids including mega-gazillionaire donors in his “mishmash” mix. Or Fox News and the rightwing wurlitzer, which has radicalized the Republican party and destroyed civil discourse. I think it’s taking down the mainstream media too.
Yet, still Republicans hold the majority of governorships and state legislatures. It’s appalling.
SiubhanDuinne
Testing. Just had a comment eated.
Patricia Kayden
@Iowa Old Lady: So the political exploitation of Benghazi will never end for Republicans, even though under the Bush regime, Americans lost more of their fellow citizens in a terrorist attack than any other domestic terrorist attack. Disgusting and shameful.
Kay
@Punchy:
Netroots can be “ahead” – you hear people who are working on things that haven’t become “national” yet- not yet covered nationally. Two examples I heard about there are “Fight for Fifteen” and “Black Lives Matter”. “Black Lives Matter” as a (named) movement didn’t exist yet, but of course there have been activists who understood that issue for decades. I heard a group of them from Detroit at Netroots. The same is true for “raise the minimum wage”. I heard from the people who put a minimum wage increase up to referendum in 6 states in 2006. There’s a long arc to these things- they have a history. It’s not mutually exclusive, either. They continue through a series of political cycles and candidates.
Iowa Old Lady
When I think of it, what really wore me down this week was Colbert joking about what a total and complete liar the FBI had proven Clinton to be. It was on the same level with Reince Priebus telling Wolf Blitzer that Clinton had lied to the FBI. Even Blitzer felt compelled to interrupt and say Comey said she didn’t. It’s out there now, reinforcing the narrative. It’s not ever going to be corrected. Not by the hearing two days later. Not by other things like Politico showing that Clinton was the most truthful of the candidates they tracked.
Elizabelle
@Patricia Kayden: It’s breaking news on the NY Times as well.
What do they expect, after running days upon days of misleading headlines and throwing everything they can at Clinton? Cruise the NY Times website, just to look at the scolding headline about all things Clinton. (John McWhorter says she got her speech on race wrong.) Do you think most people pay for a subscription, or just glance?
They maximize her missteps (even things that are not); they minimize her successes. (Endorsement by Bernie Sanders? Meh.)
The notorious RBG is getting a taste of this too, although history is going to be kind to her for speaking out against Trump.
I hope this is a bump; think it will be.
What does worry me: voting protections being inadequate, and a constant barrage of negativity from the press, because they want controversy and bread and circuses. And they don’t like Hillary.
Elizabelle
@Iowa Old Lady: RE Colbert: heard about that. I think he would be chastened by some letters and emails. He is a better person than most in media and public life.
I hope that will have been his low water mark.
Patricia Kayden
@Elizabelle:
I’m not sure if that is true though. We have a pattern in this country where mid-term elections are won by the non-ruling party. I can imagine Republicans simply biding their time until they retake the House and Senate in 2018 and then obstruct full force. We’re talking about a party which is doubling down on opposing marriage equality, even though that should be a settled issue. They’re still figuring out ways to disenfranchise minority voters. They’re still working towards diminishing reproductive rights. I just don’t see Republicans moderating even if they lose big in November.
Iowa Old Lady
@Elizabelle: Writing an email to Colbert is a good idea, but when I think about doing it, I realize how tangled and pervasive the narrative is. I have trouble even sorting out all the details and who said what, and then when I put it together, it sounds like it’s written by a conspiracy nut. It shows me how insidious this kind of slime is. The best I wind up with is urging him to watch the hearing with Comey, and that thing is several hours long.
LanceThruster
He’s vile…and yet HRC might lose to him.
Great job, DNC!
Betty Cracker
@Elizabelle:
I agree. RBG is speaking out because she is a patriot. It’s the cowardly shits who are acting like having a hateful racist demagogue as a major party candidate is normal who are behaving inappropriately.
El Caganer
Re GOP deeply held religious beliefs:despite all the horseshit in this year’s platform, Peter Thiel will be on stage at the convention. Does he have gay cooties or is he an acceptably. vindictive billionaire? It’ll be Jesus vs. Benjamin, and my bet is that Jesus will hit the canvas 20 seconds into the first round.
Baud
@LanceThruster:
Technically speaking, it’s Great job, white people. Everyone else has their head on straight. It’s his vileness that makes him attractive to the people who would put him over the top.
Betty Cracker
@LanceThruster: Haven’t you vowed to do your part by voting for Stein? The Democrats will win this election. No thanks to you.
satby
@rikyrah: Hope you’ve got a car by now! How’s everything going with the repairs on yours?
Patricia Kayden
@El Caganer: What is it like to be a gay Republican who knows that your Party’s platform is against your very being? Cannot imagine.
BlueDWarrior
@Elizabelle: Because they have successfully poisoned the well for Democrats. They’ve made voting for a Democrat a traitorous action to the community where Republicans are their strongest, so the very idea becomes total anathema. That’s why turning the House back over to a Democratic majority will be such a tough nut to crack, because you are dealing with constituencies that automatically see the D as basically reading [Traitor] before anything even comes out of the candidates mouth.
MattF
@Betty Cracker: I agree. Ask the people who are complaining about Ginsburg “How do you feel about German judges who said nothing about Nazism?”
Baud
@Betty Cracker: Oh that’s right. He’s not even part of the effort. And then he’s going to blame others.
BTW, re: polls, be very afraid.
BlueDWarrior
@Baud: No one should be freaking out about the polls unless they start showing Trump +3-5 for a month straight. Unless he’s going to win 80% of the white vote, he can’t win nationally with the horrid numbers he has amongst minorities.
And I defy anyone to show me where he can win 80% of the white vote outside of singular counties.
gogol's wife
@Iowa Old Lady:
You may be consoled by the fact that Stephen Colbert has become completely irrelevant. It saddens me to say it.
Chyron HR
@LanceThruster:
Wow, did you finally figure out that blaming the 75% of blacks who are “too stupid to vote the right way” didn’t make Bernie look good?
MattF
@Schlemazel Khan: Jeb! was pathetic, and that was one of the things that led to Trumpism. Preibus’ brag about the ‘deep bench’ actually lends some insight into what went wrong with the R party. The R lies accumulated to the point where no capable politician could survive, and they were left with a scrum of mediocrities.
And, btw, Benen has a useful post on what Paul Ryan is and what he is not.
JPL
@Elizabelle: I agree. She gave a great speech on race, which was lost, because the media was busy following Trump around. He doesn’t need campaign cash, because the media will campaign for him. I truly believe that if he wins, and blows up the world, the media will view it as ratings gold.
Kay
@Punchy:
The “up and coming” thing can be fascinating at Netroots. I watched immigration activists take over a Netroots. They dominated. That’s what activists do- they push. Ohio doesn’t have a politically crucial Latino vote and it’s not a border state, and things look pretty grim for immigration right now- Trump and the EU- right now it looks bad. Still, if I were a betting woman I would bet on them, long term. They’re young, they’re organized and they are passionate. It’s a moral crusade. They will ultimately prevail. It will flip. They have a huge structural advantage too, because unlike crim justice reform or voting rights, immigration is federal law. They can focus on the federal offices. That’s a huge advantage. That’s the value of a grouping of activists- a convention, a meeting. They need the collective energy to keep going, especially when it’s grim.
Elizabelle
@BlueDWarrior: Poison is right.
@Patricia Kayden: re improving Democrats’ midterm turnout: this could be a job for Obama.
Now that’s it’s no longer his presidency, he can get out there and say “dudes! What were you thinking? You made it so much harder for me with not turning out in the midterms, and for local elections. You need to vote for change like your lives depend on it, because they do.”
Longterm, I’d like to see an end to midterms and off-year elections. Make congressional terms 4-years, run their elections concurrent with presidential elections. It’s not like Congress is that responsive, and elections are expensive enough. (Also, why should broadcast and cable be getting all that sweet negative advertising money so frequently?)
Lots of early voting, and mail-in voting. Paper trails galore.
We need to make elections work for citizens, not just the politicians, campaign industrial complex, and big media.
Even for citizens who appear too disengaged or even lazy to turn out to vote. That needs to change.
Maybe this could be a crusade for President Obama (and — dog willing — Jimmy Carter, who is still with us!)
hovercraft
Morning Ho is says that Christie is the best pick and that Bridgegate is a non issue, all Christie has the perfect counter for it when asked, I was investigated for one bridge, Hillary was investigated for endangering America. Mr Good News for John McCain says yesterday in Indiana was the most fascinating day he has ever spent in politics, because Trump and his family are so unique.
As to the polls, it’s early and she is still ahead, the focus on Ohio being pivotal only really applies to the gop, they can’t win without it but she can. PA is critical for us and she is holding steady there, Florida is also important and the Q poll is an outlier. As polarized as we are Trump would have to take a shit in public and smear it all over himself before most republicans abandoned him, and even then he would maintain his core 27 %.
Iowa Old Lady
@gogol’s wife: I know. His show has a few interesting moments spread over a lot of time. The ratio is not good enough to keep me watching.
But then I’ve never watched late night stuff, so maybe this is what it’s always like.
eric
@gogol’s wife: who?
satby
@Botsplainer, Neoliberal Corporatist Shill: I know you’re frustrated and hurting right now, but lots of old whites are NOT voting for the hatemaster, including some reliably Republican folks I know which honestly surprises me. So don’t let it get to you yet.
MrSnrub
@Randy P: I’ve heard mixed things about the Septa stuff. For some it hasn’t been bad, for others it’s a nightmare. I’ll keep my fingers crossed for you.
We will be at PHL tomorrow on our way overseas, so maybe we’ll bump into each other.
It’ll be fascinating to view the GOP convention from Belgium/UK.
Iowa Old Lady
@Kay: This is one of the reasons I think that in the long run Texas may be a better state for Ds than Iowa and the rest of the upper Midwest. The Texas shift will result from demographics, not from convincing white voters to become enlightened.
satby
@Baud: I think everyone who is sane is a bit scared that this country has devolved to the point that Drumpf could be a nominee.
LanceThruster
@Betty Cracker:
Too soon to decide, but #NeverHillary is for certain. Her numbers are terrible even with her massive campaign outlays. Does not bode well for her.
Elizabelle
@LanceThruster: In my best French: fuck off. You are so damn tiresome.
Couldn’t you find something better to do with your time? Or come back in a few months, maybe? Or not?
Why are you here?
LanceThruster
@Chyron HR:
And yet Drumpf is blamed on stupid whites, and Bernistas will be blamed for Hillary’s loss.
Guess a lot of people fucked up,
Betty Cracker
@satby: The rise of Trump is appalling, of course. But fuck all this Chicken Little-ism! Let’s look at it as an opportunity to deliver a stinging defeat to the retrograde dickheads who nominated Trump or those who make excuses for him. We’re not a passive audience. We have a role to play.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
As I think one of the recent Trump-as-Calvin C&Hobbes mash-ups said, negative attention is still attention.
rikyrah
@Betty Cracker:
yep
MomSense
I may start playing PokemonGOTV
Gotta catch ’em all! Voters and Pokemon.
rikyrah
@satby:
I’m still trying to get an appointment with an adjuster. :(
Baud
@Elizabelle: I think they think if Hillary loses, people will turn to them to pick up the pieces.
LanceThruster
@Baud:
The DNC, the MSM, andHillary were basically too cowardly to try to go toe to toe with Bernie. They used questionable tactics and ran out the clock.
The general is not the primary. The Hildebeast has given the disenfranchised no reason to support her.
I refuse to reward her and the DNC for her reprehensible actions.
She is this year’s Joe Lieberman…a tone-deaf war hawk.
Kay
@Iowa Old Lady:
It isn’t just Latinos, either. I read 1.5 million of the undocumented are Asian. This was just my feeling, but I got a sense that they’re “rising”, adding activists. There’s always this narrative that these things spring up out of nowhere- that Black Lives Matter “appeared” but there’s a whole base group who keep at issues and THEN we get the big break-out on the national scene.
Voter suppression was scoffed at even by some Democrats – “what’s the big deal with ID?” until it kind of “tipped” in 2012. All of a sudden the NYTimes had editorials. That’s how these things “happen” IMO. Over decades :)
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Brian Beutler raised a couple of points about RBG, similar to the ones Irin Carmon made on the Hayes show last night
Carmon also pointed out that she’s offended by the normalization of Trump, which I think might explain RBG’s little shot at the media about his taxes. I wonder if she’ll amplify that point, or if she’s done, as in “I tried to tell you dumb mother fuckers, it’s on you now.”
El Caganer
@Baud: Nach Trump, uns.
Elizabelle
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Yeah. Usually I skip the creeps here and just think “coconut cream” or “lemon meringue”, but this one is just about groping himself in front of us this morning. Too early in the day, and too persistent.
@Betty Cracker:
This is true. Needs repeating.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Some truth to that. Few people wanted to listen to the shrieks of the hysterics and expose themselves to the doxxing of truly nutty, and neither Bernie!’s past nor the full impact of his proposals was ever seriously explored. Neither the media nor the Clinton camp ever gave Bernie! a taste of what a real campaign was like.
ETA: @Elizabelle: just FTR, I wasn’t telling you not engage him, I’m a post what you like kind of guy– don’t much care for bloggy hall monitoring. I just think the neediness of this kind of troll is odd, and worth pointing out to them.
JPL
Watch this new Hillary ad.. link
The media will probably say it’s over the top, and she broke child labor laws.
Betty, Think about putting this on the front page.
Kay
@MomSense:
I think the Pokeman people are cute. I saw them out on my home from work yesterday- teenagers. The whole thing makes me smile- it’s so odd! They’re looking for imaginary figures, right? I can’t imagine wanting to do it but I’m happy they found something fun :)
Gheyduke
@LanceThruster:
Yup. Behind in Florida, Ohio, and PA in the new Q poll. Not good.
Matt McIrvin
@BlueDWarrior:
The critical number isn’t 80%; it’s down in the sixties. If I recall correctly, he could win with zero votes from minorities if he can manage something like 67% of the non-Hispanic white vote.
Now that, in itself, is nearly impossible. In Reagan’s 49-state sweep in 1984 he only got 66% of the white vote; it’s hard to imagine Trump doing better, especially considering the titanic gender gap he’s going to have. But the real number is a little lower than that because Trump actually will get some minority votes.
Tilda Swinton's Bald Cap
Sam Wang today:
Snapshot – Clinton 310 EV, Orangutan 228 EV
Meta Margin – Clinton +2.96
Clinton win probability – random drift 65%, Bayesian 80%
MomSense
@Betty Cracker:
I think we have the opportunity for a wave election this year. It means donating and volunteering from now until polls close on election day. We can do this.
I want the HOUSE back! Fuck Ryan and those tea party idiots. Bunch of state legislatures I’d like to win as well. Seriously der Trump is a huge gift if we seize the opportunity his nomination provides.
Cat48
On Monday nite, along with Benghazi, they plan to reveal all of Bill Clinton’s sexual misdeeds. Giuliani is speaking that night too. I don’t know which he will cover. I figured he would be the race relations specialist. No, he’s had his share of affairs, so maybe he’ll reveal his.
Frankly, I don’t remember a Convention starting this way before. I still think it’s pathetic.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Gheyduke: and tied or ahead in those states in other polls released on the same day. Why don’t you go work out your anxiety volunteering for a down ticket campaign, even if it has to be for one of the 99% of candidates who didn’t meet Bernie!’s standard of purity.
rikyrah
Paul Ryan: ‘This is not the Democratic Party of the mid-1990s’
07/13/16 12:49 PM—UPDATED 07/13/16 01:07 PM
By Steve Benen
House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) participated in a town-hall forum last night, and CNN’s Jake Tapper asked a good question: is Ryan prepared to work with a President Hillary Clinton, should she win in November? Here’s his response:
This is the sort of assessment that many Beltway pundits will probably like, because it reinforces the agreed-upon narrative that both parties are always to blame for all things, even when that doesn’t make any sense. Sure, the argument goes, Republicans are more conservative, but Democrats have moved “far, far, far to the left.” If only today’s Dems were more like ’90s-era Dems, just imagine the wonderful bipartisan compromises we’d see!
Kay
@rikyrah:
They say the same thing every cycle. John Kerry was the “most liberal Senator, as was Obama. I’m pretty sure Jake Tapper nodded his head sagely at the Leftist radicals then too.
gene108
@Patricia Kayden:
More embassies, consulates and foreign offices were attacked under Bush, Jr too. More foreign service personnel were killed. None of them were ambassadors though, so Ambassador Stevens death sticks out and gets brought up as unique and a shameful lapse in security, while the dozens more foreign service personnel killed under Bush, Jr go down the memory hole into oblivion.
Peale
@Tilda Swinton’s Bald Cap: Yeah. Not too worried, except it looks like on 1 day out of 5, Trump might win. I’d kind of like that to be one day in a millennium.
satby
@rikyrah: I can’t give you much comfort there, it took almost two weeks AFTER the tree fell for one to come to my house (finally got here Monday).
rikyrah
Opioid bill to become law, but not without grumbling
07/14/16 08:40 AM
By Steve Benen
The good news is, Congress has approved legislation addressing an important issue, and with bipartisan backing, the policy is on its way to becoming law. The bad news is, the bill should have been a whole lot better.
This same bill passed the House by a similar margin a few days ago. As the New York Times’ report explained, the measure intends to “strengthen prevention, treatment and recovery efforts, largely by empowering medical professionals and law enforcement officials with more tools to help drug addicts. It would also expand access to a drug that emergency medical workers could use to help reverse overdoses and improve treatment for the incarcerated.”
The White House announced that President Obama will sign the bill, but the administration isn’t exactly thrilled with the way the legislation turned out. “Congressional Republicans have not done their jobs until they provide the funding for treatment that communities need to combat this epidemic,” the White House said in a written statement.
The process wasn’t supposed to work this way. As regular readers may recall, in March, the Senate approved the Comprehensive Addiction and Recovery Act (CARA) on a 94-to-1 vote. Stakeholders assumed the bipartisan package was well on its way.
It wasn’t. The GOP-led House said the Senate bill invested too much in prevention, and not enough in enforcement, so the lower chamber went its own way. Both chambers eventually passed their own competing alternatives, and the resulting compromise is what is now headed to the Oval Office for a signature.
But there’s a reason Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) called the bill “a half-measure.”
El Caganer
@MomSense: State legislatures are the ticket – that’s how the Republicans have managed to tie the country into knots, even in supposed Democratic strongholds like here in PA.
BlueDWarrior
@Tilda Swinton’s Bald Cap: So we’re slipping from ‘hilarious blowout’ to ‘Obama 2012’… if that’s the worst we’re doing I say we’re doing fairly well.
Peale
@Cat48: Really, only 1 night devoted to Clinton Sex? He’s obviously slowed down.
Jeezus.
Shalimar
@tybee:
That was just fashion consultants fucking with trend followers because it was funny.
MomSense
@Kay:
Ok I may have captured a charmander when I left work to pick up a sandwich for lunch yesterday.
@JPL:
That’s a great ad. I’ve been saying since the early Republican debates that I would never let him babysit my child, dog sit for that matter, and I think we have to keep making the point that he is unfit because of the bullying, racism, and violent rhetoric.
Kay
@Matt McIrvin:
I just keep running up against that when I panic. That’s a fact. He has an uphill climb. There’s also the fact that more educated voters have higher turnout than less educated voters. He not only has to attract white working class- he has to find them and get them out. They have the same problems with ID and transient addresses as all low income voters.
rikyrah
The Media and the Horse Race
One poll does not a narrative make.
by Nancy LeTourneau
July 13, 2016 3:42 PM
Ever since Sam Wang pointed out that presidential polling is the most inaccurate from May – July, I’ve been trying to avoid paying any attention to them. I’ve never hung my hat on individual polls, but trends over time combined with polling aggregates can provide us with information that is both interesting and useful. It’s just that, until we get through the conventions, an awful lot of people simply aren’t paying that much attention. So none of this is as important as it will be in a few weeks.
But today something happened with polling that tells us more about the media than it does about the candidates. The day began with screaming headlines like this one from Politico: “Swing-state stunner: Trump has edge in key states.” Nice alliteration, huh? What we have is a “swing-state stunner” from Quinnipiac showing that Trump is leading Clinton in Florida and Pennsylvania, while they’re tied in Ohio. What is most stunning to the authors is that “in Pennsylvania — which hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 1988 — Trump leads, 43 percent to 41 percent.” Notice that they didn’t say that Trump is leading Clinton in this particular poll. They simply say, “Trump leads…” That was posted at 6:00 am (EDT).
Seven and a half hours later, Politico reports swing-state polling that doesn’t appear to be “stunning.” An NBC/WSJ/Marist poll has Clinton leading Trump in Pennsylvania by 9 points. They also show her leading Trump by 2 points in Iowa and tied in Ohio. Do you really think that the voters of Pennsylvania swung 11 points in Clinton’s favor over 7 1/2 hours? Nah, didn’t happen. That’s why you don’t write headlines that say “Trump has edge in key states” based on the results of one poll.
But what’s even more ridiculous is that the authors of this second piece feel the need to point out that “The polls contain some worrying signs for Clinton” – but not for Trump, who is either losing or tied in these “important swing states.” Such is the advantage of running as the underdog: our media that craves a close horse race will forever pump your “stunning” positives and completely ignore the negatives.
Just in case you’d like to know where swing-state polling actually stands in this week before we head into the conventions, here’s what Real Clear Politics has on that:
Pennsylvania: Clinton +3.2
Florida: Trump +0.2
Ohio: Clinton +1.3
Colorado: Clinton +7.0
Iowa: Clinton +4.3
Virginia: Clinton +4.0
North Carolina: Clinton +0.7
Georgia: Trump +4.2
New Hampshire: Clinton +2.7
BlueDWarrior
@Cat48: Are they really going to go Monday night with “Bill Clinton was a serial chode at best and a serial rapist at worst”? Of all the things that you could actually hit Clinton on regarding her policies from the right (which is about everything given how Republicans think these days), they go with BILL CLINTON IS AN EVIL SERIAL RAPIST WORSE THAN COSBY?
I shouldn’t be surprised, and yet I am…
Kay
@MomSense:
“Charmander” is a cute word. They have a language! I’m not joining but I’m glad they have a club.
Tilda Swinton's Bald Cap
@BlueDWarrior:
MomSense
@El Caganer:
It’s definitely where they have been dismantling workers’ rights, abortion rights, voting rights, environmental regulations, and denying people access to health care by refusing Medicaid expansion.
Kay
@rikyrah:
Cook political report is pretty consistently gloomy for Trump. Skeptical. I was looking at their Twitter feed yesterday because they’re the opposite of “alarmist”.
Shalimar
@LanceThruster:
No one is going to remember Bernistas in November. If Hillary loses, it will be blamed on the media for propping up Trump and excusing his existential horror.
rikyrah
One year later, Obama gets the last laugh on Iran deal
07/14/16 08:00 AM—UPDATED 07/14/16 08:57 AM
By Steve Benen
It wasn’t easy, and the process nearly collapsed more than once, but exactly one year ago today, Americans learned of a historic diplomatic breakthrough: the United States and our negotiating partners had completed the Iran nuclear deal.
And despite all the far-right apoplexy, and the dire warnings about the agreement creating a security crisis, the editorial board of the New York Times noted the other day what is plainly true: the nuclear deal “is working” and has “made the world safer.”
gene108
@JPL:
I don’t know about child labor laws, but it looked like those kids were sitting way too close to the TV. Not good for young eyes, probably some sort of child endangerment expirement by the Hilldabeast.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
one upside to all this hand-wringing, maybe it will kill the notion that Clinton can just pick the boring white guy as Veep– no offense to Tim Kaine who I’m sure has many wonderful qualities
O. Felix Culpa
@Botsplainer, Neoliberal Corporatist Shill:
Here in New Mexico, the HFA and Democratic Party are already gearing up for GOTV. Hillary Fellows’ training is underway, we’re having a Democratic Party Unity tour/celebration throughout the state this weekend, and phone banking and volunteer development start next week. I imagine that other state organizations are similarly engaged. Volunteers are welcome! You can make your interest known through Hillary Clinton’s website or your local party/HFA organization. Every one willing to lend a hand is warmly received…and put to work!
ETA: GOTV activities will really ramp up after the convention, but the groundwork is already in process now.
El Caganer
@MomSense: That tired old saw that the states are laboratories of democracy omits that they can also be laboratories of something very different.
Matt McIrvin
@Kay: On the other hand, Trump may actually get an advantage of a percentage point or two from the Electoral College, unlike Romney or McCain, because his weakest states relative to past Republican candidates are deep-red states. On the other other hand, Clinton’s weakest states relative to past Democratic candidates are deep-blue states, though it’s less pronounced.
I primarily look at state-poll aggregators: Sam Wang and 538. In 2008 and 2012 they both did a much better job of giving a picture of the national race than national polls did (Wang did slightly better than 538, usually). One thing you’ll see with these sites is that their numbers don’t jump around as much: Wang’s median EV count and Meta-Margin just jinked down a bit, but they still make it clear that Clinton has a national lead. The worst thing to do is to go by news stories about individual poll results, because by the nature of news reporting, they will emphasize surprising outliers, which are the least important polls to pay attention to.
gene108
@LanceThruster:
Unless you are a convicted fellon, whose voting rights are not restored or someone, who cannot get necessary ID in a voter ID state you are not disenfranchised.
You are choosing not to vote of your own free will.
AxelFoley
Nutroots is still a thing?
Peale
@MomSense: I think Hillary should consider using at least some of her cash to off Niantic to make all polling places Poke Stops that day and hire workers to drop lures. Or maybe just ask Niantic to release Dragonites that day. Although I don’t think there’s enough money to get Niantic to increase the number of Dragonites.
Matt McIrvin
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: There’s been a strange amount of buzz about Admiral James Who The Hell Is That.
Betty Cracker
@Kay: My daughter showed me the app and how the game works yesterday. I think it’s kind of cute too, all these kids running around bagging imaginary creatures. I’m surprised no one came up with such a scheme before. (Actually, someone probably did — they just didn’t hit upon linking it to a long established game before.)
Matt McIrvin
Oh, God, Paul Campos is freaking out on LGM.
O. Felix Culpa
@Elizabelle:
Support VoterRiders.org, the League of Women Voters, and become a voter registrar yourself. It’s easy and fun and you’re actively supporting democratic rights. What could be better?
JPL
@gene108: lol
The mask has been taken off the evangelicals. They could care less, about family values. What they want to see is the minorities, to know their place, and the fetus to thrive.
Betty Cracker
@gene108: Replace “the disenfranchised” with “fart-huffing morons,” and it’ll make more sense.
@JPL: Powerful ad. It gets to the embarrassment factor, which I believe will ultimately be Trump’s undoing.
Tilda Swinton's Bald Cap
@Matt McIrvin: You’d think he would be a little more circumspect given the other front pagers over there.
MomSense
@Peale:
Or a Snorlax. I could bring voter registration cards out with me for the next couple months.
Kay
@Betty Cracker:
We have a local “kid” who writes for the newspaper. He went to high school with my son and I always liked him. He wrote this great piece about the local players where he revealed at the end that he joined the game while covering it. It was one of the best things I’ve ever read in that paper- funny and lively and original. They front-paged it with big photos. I’m happy for him.
Matt McIrvin
@BlueDWarrior:
I think what they’re trying to do here is get out in front of any attacks on Donald Trump’s personal behavior.
Notice how his fans constantly make accusations about Bill Clinton’s association with that guy with the child-rape island, even though Trump knows the same guy and actually vacationed there? How they make cracks about Monica Lewinsky even though Trump’s cheating on his various wives (sometimes with people who then became his wives) was all over the newspapers for years? How they like to call Bill Clinton a rapist while there are moderately credible accusations that Trump is a rapist? They’re trying to neutralize the issue preemptively by getting in their retaliation against Hillary Clinton’s husband first.
jayackroyd
@Punchy: In the beginning it was like a giant meetup for the blogosphere.Nowadays there’s more focus on activism training I think. Ironically the event seems to have peaked in 2008, the last year it was called YearlyKos
eric
@Matt McIrvin: He is freaking out because Trump has a 25% chance of winning, i.e., non-zero chance. Just think of the apoplexy if Hillary had a 25% chance of winning. I put his odds at less than that because Trump’s unforced errors are of a type that can alienate whole cities and states at a time
Matt McIrvin
@Tilda Swinton’s Bald Cap: To his credit, Campos is not too unrealistic about Trump’s chances of winning; the main thing that irritates me is his emphasis on a SHOCK POLL news story.
…and just the way he leads with the PANIC!!!!!!! line.
Matt McIrvin
@eric: I actually didn’t mind that bit of his post: I mean, I’ve seen estimates elsewhere that Trump’s chances from polls alone are somewhere in the 15-25% range, which is basically Russian roulette odds-nothing to be sanguine about.
Tilda Swinton's Bald Cap
@Matt McIrvin: Inoculation !
ThresherK
@Kay: Remember when Tom Daschle, of all people, was the craziest crazy who ever crazied?
(I mean, before they discovered Max Clelland.)
Chyron HR
@LanceThruster:
Remember, folks, when Lance and Kropadope and all the rest are consumed with anger and grief after Clinton wins, it’s totally different from Republicans being consumed with anger and grief because from the left.
Blueskies
@Botsplainer, Neoliberal Corporatist Shill: You are blaming the victim, here. There really is a vast rightwing conspiracy, it has lots of money, it’s been operating since the 70s, and a big part of its strategy is to suppress voting on many levels using many tactics. Your screed is one tiny example of this influence. Don’t blame people for not voting until you’ve gone into poor neighborhoods and worked directly with those citizens in trying to help them 1) get registered and 2) actually vote. It is staggeringly difficult, it’s made intentionally difficult, and the outcome serves only those who are already in power.
Glidwrith
@MomSense: You joke, but that is a thought. Why not have voter registration at Poke spots?
hovercraft
@rikyrah:
They want a horse race dammit and they’re gonna get one evidence be dammed. What they are going for is a self fulfilling prophecy, she lied, she’s in trouble, did we tell you she lied and is in trouble, hey looky hear we’ve found a poll that confirms what we said, she’s in trouble. What’s that you say, there’s a poll that shows her ahead, well that’s not the important one this one where she’s down is.
Trendlines do show her taking a hit after a week of being pounded on by the media and the gop, but she is still where she needs to be, ahead. We need to take this dip to stay motivated and fight for every last vote that can be brought into the light. I’m looking at you, white people get with the program, seriously what the heck ?
(Not to sound like that Bernie Bro Thomas Franks, but what the hell is wrong with you white people).
rikyrah
@Kay:
I’m not going to fall for the Chicken Little …not now. The metrics are on our side. We do the work that we’re supposed to do, and we will be fine.
Willard got SIXTY PERCENT OF THE WHITE VOTE.
Never forget that.
And, it didn’t even matter: Popular vote or Electoral College Wise.
Willard got 27% of the Latino vote.
Trump is polling in the low to mid teens with Latinos.
Please show me where he makes up for that with White votes, and I’ll begin to panic.
Trentrunner
Randoms:
1. It’s good that the media narrative a few days before the GOP convention is “the polls are tightening.” If Hillary were running away with it right now, greater chance Trump would be dethroned at the convention. So with “polls even” bs, Trump’s safe. Which is good for us.
2. That new Hillary ad with the kids is very, very effective.
3. RBG is right to have spoken out, but I wish her words had been both more apocalyptic and more self-aware of what she was doing: “If you look at my history you’ll see I’ve never done anything like this before, but Trump represents an unprecedented threat to our democracy…[followed by numerous examples].” Saying tepid things like he’s a “faker” and “where’s his tax return?” sounds like she’s just blowing off steam, and she’s getting just as much pushback as if she’d laid out the actual existential threat Trump is.
MomSense
@Glidwrith:
We should try it.
eric
@rikyrah: As I continuously say, look at the Latino cross tabs for every “good” Trump poll. If they dont make them public, the poll aint worth much. Trump will not get 27% AND there will be more Latino voters in 2016 than 2012. AND there are a fair amount of Latino voters in some of the key “swing” states.
CONGRATULATIONS!
Rather burn my eyes out with lye, thank you. Only worse convention I can think of would be the GOP’s.
Glidwrith
@Tilda Swinton’s Bald Cap: I am on a tablet, so no embed, but Wang’s site also has projection for control of the House. The graph is on the left side.
It has us taking the House.
bemused
@JPL:
Terrific ad. It’s appalling that a presidential candidate needs a warning to parents that he is unsuitable for children to watch containing language, violence….
Wapiti
@Patricia Kayden: Even if we don’t count 9-11, five died in the anthrax attacks (in Bush’s time), compared to the four at Benghazi.
Shell
Im with you fellas, after seeing that speaking list, Ill think Id be better spending my primetime going outside and trying to catch fireflies. Hope TCM has some good movies on their schedule.
I don’t even recognize half the names and is there a family Trump that isn’t speaking sometime over the four days? Wheres all the showbiz and big sports names that DT promised?
LanceThruster
@Chyron HR:
“Don’t blame me, I voted for Kodos.”
http://ih0.redbubble.net/image.120439492.1330/flat,800×800,075,f.u2.jpg
Blueskies
@gogol’s wife: True, sadly. His show is barely watchable.
hovercraft
@BlueDWarrior:
Don’t you know that Bill has the most fascinating penis in history, Hastert’s, Vitter’, Newt’s, Gulliani’s, Trump’s, thses are boring penises where they are inserted is of no interest or import to anyone. This is kind of like “you built it” night back in 2012, the gop and the media thought it was such a devastating rebuke they wasted a whole night on it, but it only served to stimulate the already converted. Bill penis night will titilate the base and no one else, we already know that he had a very curious penis that enjoyed exploring the depths of new places, peak penis has been achieved so what’s their point ? For anyone that is just discovering this penchant for exploration, they are already more cynical about politicians and aren’t surprised to discover they lie especially about sex.
Ruckus
@gene108:
Little people are not important. They have no place on the social structure. Enlisted personal, embassy staff, etc. Important people have titles, when important people with titles die, democrats can be blamed, when unimportant people die they are just collateral damage or they were too stupid and in the wrong place at the wrong time. Dumphf is the republican nominee. That makes him important. In the same way that there are leaders who need to know where the crowd is going so they can get out in front and lead, followers need people with titles so they know who to follow.
Substance is not important bullshit is. That’s why drumpf is the nominee, he excels at bullshit. His whole life is built on bullshit. As is the republican party. Name one thing they want or believe in that isn’t bullshit.
hovercraft
Can a moderator please save me from moderation, thanks.
Shell
@LanceThruster: Sweet Jesus, you’re a fucking bore. As somebody already said upthread, hit the bricks.
ThresherK
@Wapiti: Did any of those anthrax attacks (or phony ones with talcum powder) ever get addresed to anyplace but Democrats’ offices, or non-partisan gummint bldgs? I’m too lazy to look it up.
I don’t remember a single one to the likes of the NRA, Lockheed-Martin, NatRev, or some chickenhawk congresscritter.
Paul in KY
@rikyrah: Hope everything turns out well for you.
MattF
@Matt McIrvin: I don’t suppose it would help to offer a lecture on the meaning of ‘probability of future events’ in this context. But uncertainty always increases as you look into the future, and correctly computed probabilities of future events have to reflect that. From that standpoint, a 25% probability of some event in November is actually pretty small.
Kropadope
@gene108:
True child endangerment would be if she had make them listen to the actual audio of Trump’s speeches. Man, those kids looked sad.
Paul in KY
@Kay: Saw my first one yesterday out in ‘meatspace’. A teenager & his father walking around with the smartphone held up in front of them.
LanceThruster
@Betty Cracker:
Yeah…voter roll purges are a fucking riot.
Elizabelle
@O. Felix Culpa: Thank you. Had not heard of Vote Riders.
Trentrunner
Well, apparently RBG just issued a written apology to Donald Trump. My comments were “ill-advised and I regret making them.”
Huh.
JMG
Facts everyone forgets until it’s election year and then they freak out. 1. Any nominee of either major party has a non-trivial chance of being elected President and has since 1988 (Dukakis had a 17 point lead at one point.). 2. A “landslide” in the 21st century means a six-point win (Obama-McCain).
A specific fact about 2016 that’s unpleasant but whaddaya gonna do? Clinton is unpopular. Doesn’t matter why (my guess, she is Career
Politician, a stock supervillain in the hazy minds of the low-information, apathy-bound segment of the electorate). It’s going to prevent her from opening up a big lead.
So, it’s going to be close. All elections are close these days. And if it isn’t, it will likely break one way or the other in the last week.
My advice. Save the panic for October when it might be needed.
Cat48
@BlueDWarrior:
I guess they are. I read that in two different places, but maybe it was a head fake or something. The schedule in this thread only has Benghazi. The first schedule I saw didn’t have many names & those 2 subjects were listed & was yesterday evening.
StringOnAStick
Consider that if the whole country is thinking “why trouble myself to vote, Hillary’s so far ahead I don’t need to bother”, that would not be a good thing at every level of each states ticket. A little nervousness can encourage better focus and certainly for the narrow bit of the voting public that is barely involved but decides election outcomes, we have to keep them interested.
LanceThruster
@Elizabelle:
Your French is magnifique!
Did not know you were the gatekeeper. Pardon me that I might express an un-Elizabelle thought.
hovercraft
@O. Felix Culpa:
Pah, what is wrong with you sighting actual facts and things that you do to get out the vote, Drump is once again commanding the airwaves and will therefor be the next president. GOTV is so passé.
O. Felix Culpa
@JMG:
Seconded. And further advice: Don’t panic – support voter registration and GOTV efforts! It’s not hard and it’s even fun! Just do it.
Paul in KY
@Chyron HR: I look forward to their sweet, sweet tears.
O. Felix Culpa
@hovercraft: I’m ashamed. So sorry to be troubling the internets with practical action steps.
//
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Trentrunner: Damn.
Damn, damn, damn, damn, damn and damn.
I think of all the ways she could have handled it, including vaguely apologizing to the Court or the country, that was the worst.
Dog Dawg Damn
@Tilda Swinton’s Bald Cap: still looking like Ivanka is gonna be the VP pick.
O. Felix Culpa
On another note, Happy Bastille Day, everyone! To the ramparts!
Liberté, égalité, fraternité!
Trentrunner
@Dog Dawg Damn:
1. Is Ivanka yet 35 years old?
2. Also, does it matter that her father’s most memorable words to her were, “Mmmm…You taste just like your mother”?
Shell
But considering the historic nature of this election, there will be people (me!) who want to remember they cast their vote for the first woman president.
D58826
@Blueskies:
I’m reading Jane Mayer’s Dark Money. I can only get thru 20-30 pages at a time it is so depressing. The Koch’s and their billionaire allies have so infiltrated the political process that elections almost do not matter any more. The most frightening thing about it is that it all being done below the radar. It’s almost impossible to trace the money back to these people. And if a bit of information slips out and someone is investigated, they just buy the judge or the prosecutor. End of story.
Kropadope
@LanceThruster: What voter roll purges? The only state with voting irregularities and legitimately registered voters not being allowed to vote was Arizona. This had little to do with the Democrats, but rather was a result of Republican incompetence and indifference to voting rights.
Mike in NC
Made the mistake of having MSNBC on in the background this morning while fixing breakfast. It’s all Trump, all the time, with giddy airheads bringing in GOP bottom feeders to gloat over his fake poll numbers. They really want this lunatic to be their Entertainer-in-Chief. Couldn’t take more than 10 minutes of that swill.
PaulWartenberg2016
The Republicans are going to dedicate an entire night to BENGHAZI even though the Congressional investigation turned up nothing, the FBI emails investigation established what Hillary did wasn’t criminal, and there’s been enough public admissions from fellow Republicans that the whole thing is specifically to embarrass Hillary and not an act of justice or legality.
And then they’re going to dedicate an entire night to Bill Clinton’s penis, even though THEIR OWN PLATFORM says “no porn allowed”.
I pray to God that this drives viewership down to single digits and Trump’s polling numbers to 27 percent.
There is no dignity left in this shambling zombie of a political party.
FlipYrWhig
@Matt McIrvin: Paul Campos is a fuckface.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@O. Felix Culpa: I remember reading a piece by French reporter living in DC, commenting on the French love of mass demonstrations and strikes, said something like “we overdoes on liberté to compensate for the total absence of fraternité and égalité“
PaulWartenberg2016
@O. Felix Culpa:
Lafayette shipped the Bastille Key to George Washington as a gift. http://www.mountvernon.org/digital-encyclopedia/article/bastille-key/
LAO
@Trentrunner: I LOVE RBG — but a sitting Justice should not be commenting on the Presidential race or politics in general.
FlipYrWhig
@Mike in NC: MSNBC loves them some Trump. It’s made them unwatchable. I can stand about 12 minutes of Maddow, which most days is the prolonged introduction to one story. Lawrence O’Donnell has regressed back to pure hackdom. I suppose Hayes has interesting guests at the end.
pseudonymous in nc
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: yeah, as Josh Marshall says, demanding apologies and climbdowns is the Trump M.O. — the domination politics thing.
At least Hillary Clinton ain’t going to apologise to that fucker for shit.
SFAW
@MomSense:
I was hoping you’d wish for Elliot Cutler to commit seppuku on the pier at OOB. I mean, it wouldn’t be as thrilling as Minority Leader Zombie-Eyed Granny Starver, but it might be a nice start.
SFAW
@pseudonymous in nc:
Or, as they say in Deadbeat Donnie’s home town, “Yeah, I got yer apology RIGHT HERE, ASSHOLE.”
LanceThruster
@Kropadope:
http://m.motherjones.com/politics/2016/04/new-york-primary-voter-purge
cmorenc
@Betty Cracker:
RBG’s comments were a HUGE tactical mistake – as a sitting SCOTUS justice, however correct her public criticisms of Trump’s character and politics are, she loses more in her legal standing to counter and resist the potential damage the GOP and her right-wing colleagues on the court can inflict on the country and its legal system than she gained by the comments. Consider what Scalia’s appearances of political partisanship in his comments and actions did to undermine his reputation (outside right-wing circles) as a purportedly brilliant conservative legal scholar and transform his impression into that of a partisan hack. RBG has more integrity in her little finger than Scalia ever had in his entire body, but one of the most valuable resources a SCOTUS justice has is the appearance they can be fair-minded and objective even when deciding cases involving litigants across the spectrum of political inclinations and even personal character. The right loved Scalia’s verbal antics, and likewise we progressives love RBG telling it like we think it is regarding Trump – but how effective is that really with the larger public? The right-wing Wurlitzer will now be better-positioned to attack every opinion (including concurrences and dissents) she writes from now on whose effect is to favor progressive causes or democrats (even indirectly) or disfavor right-wing causes or republicans. It just wasn’t worth her speaking out in the long run, given her position on the court. She’ll be pressured to recuse herself in cases where before there would be no arguable sound basis to do so.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Trentrunner: @Jim, Foolish Literalist: This doesn’t look so bad, especially if it wasn’t a formal apology to the bully
I hope that means the next thing she’s going to say is pretty much the same stuff about (the press) normalizing race-baiting, misogynist, authoritarian bigotry without naming any names.
eclare
@Elizabelle: Excellent idea, I was appalled as well. Will send sharply worded email this weekend. Used to love the Report. Sad!
SFAW
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Fixed to add the part of her comment that the MSM “mislaid.”
Paul in KY
@O. Felix Culpa: Viva la France!
Betty Cracker
@cmorenc: Under normal circumstances, I’d agree. These aren’t normal circumstances. That said, Ginsburg has now apologized for her comments. Hopefully we can all now stow our pearls for the next outrage to national dignity.
Dog Dawg Damn
@Trentrunner: she will be 35 before her inauguration. That’s enough, right?
NobodySpecial
I was at the first YearlyKos in 2006. Still have the book, my invite badge to Warner’s shindig at the Stratosphere, and the memory of meeting a lot of really nice liberals. It was a very different time, though, we had been pasted for a few years after the Bush election and even just meeting together for base strategizing felt really good. All in all, it was a product of it’s place and time, and that’s pretty much gone now.
scav
@LanceThruster: Va te faire foutre avec ton propre lance de fer rouillé. C’est mieux, O! toi qui n’a rien autre a faire?
D58826
@Betty Cracker: Odd that she has to apologize but GOOPERS suggesting that Obama is a traitor are just fine. (sigh) I know the answer
Miss Bianca
@Matt McIrvin: saw that. Honestly, when did they turn into such a nest of hand-wringers?
Ruviana
@Miss Bianca: Seems to be mostly Campos, FWIW.
ETA: Spelling
Matt McIrvin
@Miss Bianca: Campos was a strong Bernie supporter of the “Hillary is unelectable” persuasion, and there are a bunch of commenters there who are similar; they’re all going told-you-so. I’m not sure what the strategic benefit of panic is supposed to be.
hovercraft
From Greg Sargent
Stay calm for now.
piratedan
what I hate about the right is that anything and everything is fair game to be used as a fucking symbol to trash the left, no matter what the fuck it is… for example Benghazi…
You want to invoke Benghazi, then fine… lets name names, how many GOP talking heads can actually name the four people who were killed? How many of those same talking heads will admit, that the GOP is the party that voted down the SOS budget requests earmarked for greater staff security in the budget? How many media mouthpieces will actually connect those two pieces of information? I really don’t mind having the discussion about the deaths of Stephens, Smith, Doherty and Woods. Lets really talk about it but all we get are surface and symbolism, the GOP cares no more about the deaths of those folks other than as a way to use them to further their agenda. How many times is it stated that these were two separate attacks? That they took place hours apart? Yet any kind of nuance, much less substance is lost in all of the posturing and counting of coup. I keep thinking we’re going to have a moment of epiphany where someone finally stands up and recites that Michael Douglas line from The American President and says that these are serious times that demand thought from serious people and frankly GOP, your 15 minutes are up.
Bill
@Elizabelle: A good piece by Friedman. I’m certainly hoping for the same outcome he is. But I predict that if we get it, the GOP will just double down again and continue the quest for the “one true conservative.”
Irony Abounds
@hovercraft: The maddening thing is that this thing shouldn’t even be close, not by a mile. It is just so frustrating that the Dems are nominating the one candidate that Trump would have even a prayer against. What should have been a cakewalk, where everyone could just laugh at the hideous aberration of a candidate the Republicans are nominating, is instead going to be a hideous display of the ugliest kind of politics. Not to mention that with a quality candidate at the top the Dems would be guaranteed retaking the Senate and have a shot at the House. Now, even if Hillary squeaks by it will be a much tougher job to retake the Senate.
LanceThruster
@Shell:
And a happy “Eat Shit & Die!” to you too.
dogwood
@D58826:
There really is a difference between an elected official and a non-elected justice. And viewing RBG’s comments as unwise is not an indictment of her, her career, or her character. Being troubled that she inserted herself into the election is not some sign of insufficient fealty to progressivism. She isn’t just a progressive icon; she’s a complex human being. Her close friendship with Scalia indicates she has the ability to separate the personal from the professional. I’m not surprised that she issued the statement of regret because that’s what good, decent grown-ups do who have the ability to reflect after the fact and decide something they did or said wasn’t wise.
cmorenc
@Betty Cracker:
As someone who practiced law for years before moving on to other callings (though always retaining my law license in good standing), I can perhaps more keenly appreciate why RBG’s public comments were a grave tactical mistake for someone in her position than can an otherwise intelligent, well-informed lay person such as yourself. The upside of the public influence of her truth-telling (I agree completely with what she said) is hugely outweighed by the downsides to her institutional position on the court, where such comments perversely cost her credibility (I know lay progressives have a hard time seeing that since Trump is seemingly such an obvious toxic, dangerous buffoon – but unfortunately I know where this kind of thing goes in terms of ethical and legal effect within lawyer-world).
LanceThruster
@scav:
“Fuck you with your own spear of rusty iron . This is better , O! you who has nothing else to do ?”
Bring it, douche-nozzle.
LanceThruster
Cole himself changed parties when the right became too loony.
For me (and many others), Hillary is a bridge too far.
Answer me this. If most of the Hillary camp is of the “BLUE no matter WHO!” persuasion, and many here have said that they would have supported Bernie as the Dem nom if he was the clear winner, why wouldn’t this make him the prefered and safer candidate, taking into account the considerable number of progressive voters who will not vote for her under any circumstances?
hovercraft
@Irony Abounds:
WE nominated the best candidate, go ahead and delude yourself into believing that St. Bernie would have fared better if you want. There is a reason the gop has spent the last year tearing her down and building him up, she is the strongest candidate, period. Now go play in some traffic.
Shalimar
@LanceThruster: Clinton won the New York primary by 290,000 votes. There was no reason she would need to purge “over 100,000 voters”, no evidence this “purge” was intentional, no reason to think it was done somehow by the Clinton campaign, no evidence that the voters purged were more likely to vote for Sanders than Clinton, and no evidence it changed the winner.
Other than that, nice conspiracy theory.
Shalimar
@LanceThruster: I did vote for Bernie in the Democratic primary in Florida. I would have preferred that he were the candidate over Clinton. He lost. Even he knows it. Time to move on and deal with the choices that are still available.
Cat48
Easy today for RBG to apologize since she’s jetting off to Europe for an extended vacation. A few weeks teaching & a few weeks touring for her & when she returns, hopefully Trump is losing. Hope she has safe travels.
LanceThruster
@Shalimar:
The MSM declared her the presumptive nomine before the CA primary for chrissakes and an actual vote tally flipped quite a few counties.
It’s no one thing for me, but an accumulation of disturbing occurances.
People here slam Bernie over a supposed tax tranparency issue, but she claimed to be under sniper fire in Bosnia.
Stupid, self-serving, and easily debunked statement does not engender trust. She’s overcompensating and that worries me.
Tilda Swinton's Bald Cap
@Irony Abounds: Do you understand that any republican has a built in floor of about 45%? Have you even paid attention to the last 4 POTUS election cycles? It’s always going to be close. Do you think that with that kind of built in floor for ANY Republican that we are on the cusp of a great leftist revolution in this country?
LanceThruster
@Tilda Swinton’s Bald Cap:
It’s only close because so many progressives stay home. Bernie mobilized incredible numbers without DNC help, without massive corporate and super-pac donors, without proportionate media coverage, and despite the hurdles his supporters needed to deal with to vote. The primaries were heavily weighted in her favor from the get-go, and he was supposed to be a protest vote at best.
The fact that she is such a subpar candidate meant she squeaked by a relatively unknown (whose numbers continued to climb the more people got to know him).
Hope there are truly enough people “Ready for Hillary” if not resigned to her.
Matt McIrvin
@LanceThruster:
I’ll give you a serious answer. If you look at all the state polls, it’s clear that the critical states are the same ones that were key in the last few election cycles: Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania. Minority turnout is key to the Democratic coalition in those states, and was crucial for getting all three of them in both 2012 and 2008.
Given that, who do you want? The candidate who established strength among minority voters early and consistently in the primary campaign, and won the Democratic primaries in all three of those states? Or the candidate who has the loyalty of a bunch of mostly white progressives who dominated in Plains-state caucuses and are dithering over whether to vote third-party?
Uncle Ebeneezer
@Elizabelle:
Yeah well, he’s also the guy who wrote lengthy pieces on why Ta-Nahesi Coates is totes wrong and overrated, Blacklivesmatter is misguided and Jon Chait is right about the creeping danger of Political Correctness! So I think he’s playing to form, yet again.
The Lodger
@cmorenc: Note she never went after Trump’s racist attack on the impartiality of a federal judge. That, at least, would have been a justifiable defense of a lower-ranking member of the judicial branch.
Justice GInsburg regrets her comments, and I think she’s said all she has to say.
LanceThruster
@Matt McIrvin:
It better be enough then,