This morning Martin Longman made what I think is the first correct interpretation of what happened with Ted Cruz last night. Yes, the Trump campaign had Ted Cruz’s speech in advance. I am sure that they read it. They almost certainly discussed it with Cruz. So how could such a disaster happen with their eyes open?
The answer is that it all happened just like Trump wanted. In wrestling terms Trump lured Cruz on stage and surprised him with a heel turn.
A sensible person would tell me that could not possibly be true. That speech blew apart the Republican party. The crowd screamed for Ted’s head and the donor class almost killed him. The whole idea of party unity is dead like Chef in South Park. If Trump had a breath of hope in November this screwup put the last nail in that coffin, epoxied the lid, welded the seams, encased it in reinforced concrete and dropped it off a cargo ship with the GPS turned off.
That leads us to 2020. Ted Cruz just saw his stature go up a hundred times with the faction of Republicans who would normally fill all those empty seats. And that convention is missing a lot of Republicans (NSFW article title). Erick Erickson should start talking about Cruz 2020 any day now. The No Homers Trumps Club will have the driver’s seat in four years, so Cruz just became the de facto leader of post-2016 Republicans.
From a strategic perspective that makes last night an unmitigated catastrophe. The only thing worse than the Cruz meltdown was the raging insanity that Trump said about NATO to the NYT, which is almost too big a deal to blog. I want to leave that to Adam Silverman if he’s still with us. It is hard to process how dumb Trump would have to be not only to allow the Cruz thing to happen but make it worse by orchestrating a crowd riot. But never forget Josh Marshall’s guiding maxim about Trump.
“Trump’s Razor: Ascertain the stupidest possible scenario that can be reconciled with the available facts”.
So I have to disagree with everyone but Longman about this. The stupidest possible scenario is not Trump blindly stumbling into an ambush by Cruz. Laziness maxes the stupid meter at maybe a six or seven. It’s a sin of omission. The stupidest possible thing Trump could do is set the trap for essentially selfish/malicious reasons and then congratulate himself like Hannibal from the A-Team when the disaster sets his campaign on fire just like he planned.
Consider a few things.
* First, never forget that Trump came to reality TV by way of pro wrestling. He may not be able to business his way out of a paper bag but Trump showed up on the WWE circuit like he was born to be there. He showed a natural talent for syntax of the business, a mix of aggressive bullshit and classic show biz. Nobody had to show Trump how to wrap a room of screaming morons (yes I know, #notallprowrestlingfans) around his stubby fingers. That part came natural. I think I could make the case that a frothing WWE crowd has a lot in common with Republican base voters who constitute his faithful core. I hope I do not need point out that pro wrestling informs just about everything he does in this race. That time he crashed Glenn Beck’s anti-Trump Cruz event? WWE in a nutshell.
* Trump never lets go of a grudge. This one neurosis overrides basically every other consideration Trump ever has, about anything. The man has a fruit fly attention for anything except who bows to Trump and who doesn’t.
* That last point is really important. You do not work with Trump. You submit and then he proves it by humiliating you. Hi Chris! If you don’t submit then you are his enemy. There is no such thing as a ‘friend’, ‘partner’ or ‘ally‘. Ted Cruz gave a moving, and often false (hi LBJ!), paean to the Republican party. If anything his words sound like a plea to support the GOP regardless of the guy at the top of the ticket. If you cut out the audience riot it reads like a speech that tries quite hard to thread the party unity needle. The problem is Trump gives not one tiny shit about the GOP. Ted did not submit. After that primary how could he? Trump rules being what they are, that makes Cruz the enemy.
* Martin Longman is right, someone orchestrated that chaos. The New York delegation is Trump’s core people. They knew when going apeshit would put Cruz in a certain light. Look at Trump’s entrance during the Cruz speech and ask yourself how he would have timed it so well if Cruz’s speech surprised him. Remember, Cruz did not drop the not-endorsing bomb out loud until just before Trump walked in. Trump read the speech. He talked about it with Cruz. If nothing else trust that Trump’s gossamer ego would keep him awake and sweating until he knew exactly what his greatest internal enemy would say about him on prime time TV. This is a guy who installed a special switchboard so he could listen to employees gossiping. Trump’s famous laziness covers every imaginable topic except Trump and what people say about Trump.
To summarize, Trump thinks about politics in wrestling terms. I doubt he has the capacity to think of it any other way. He does not care about the GOP nor about anyone in it. Policy bores him. In fact, there is pretty good evidence that he does not care much about winning the race at all. He is here for the show and that’s it. He likes having crowds shout his name.
It clearly delights Trump whenever an opponent submits. Carson was a gimme and Christie was desperate, and the Republican leadership basically didn’t have a choice. Each time Trump twists their thumb a little extra just to make sure slower folks in the audience get the point. However, Kasich wrote him off completely and Rubio sent a video, probably guessing that Trump would pull some bullshit if he showed up in person. Cruz, on the other hand, gave Trump a unique opportunity. Wrestlers need rivals. You could think of Hillary as Trump’s main rival, but Hillary is a hard target. He has no power over her, she doesn’t need his voters and she is better at this game than he is. Ted Cruz on the other hand is a great rival. He is the strongest anti-Trump Republican still standing. He is a pretentious, oily asshole who makes ordinary people uncomfortable and professional Republicans already hate him as much as Trump, and Cruz desperately needs to please the same crowd of [uncharitable adjective/noun] who are shouting Trump’s name. That my friends is an opportunity.
In professional wrestling, a heel (also known as a rudo in lucha libre) is a wrestler who is villainous or a “bad guy”, who is booked (scripted) by the promotion to be in the position of being an antagonist…They are typically opposed by their polar opposites, faces, who are the heroic protagonist or “good guy” characters.
In order to gain heat (with boos and jeers from the audience), heels are often portrayed as behaving in an immoral manner by breaking rules or otherwise taking advantage of their opponents outside the bounds of the standards of the match.
Donald Trump obviously sees himself as the good guy in his own story. But the only stories Donald Trump ever paid attention to is pro wrestling. That means he needs a rival or people will lose interest. Picking a rival as far out of his league as Hillary Clinton would be stupid*. Ted Cruz is a vastly better choice. As long as he headlines the GOP Trump has a natural power to set the narrative. Amazingly Cruz still looks pretty loathsome even next to Trump (taking credit for the Civil Rights Act? Really?). Cruz put up a pretty solid fight but he’s also kind of a chump. I sincerely believe that Trump set up Cruz for a face-heel rivalry where Trump gets to play the betrayed good guy. There’s one problem with that (via tvtropes).
A wrestler’s heel turn is often a sign that he or she is about to see his or her popularity skyrocket. Indeed, it is very common, once they have turned, to remain heels for their entire careers. Heels that become really popular may end up “naturally” becoming faces again, but it is just as likely for heels to be beloved because they are heels. In fact, as paradoxical as it might seem, a heel turn can help an otherwise despised wrestler become likable[.]
May god save us all.
(*) I suggest we set aside Trump’s Razor exclusively for cases that involve pro wrestling.
Emma
Maybe. But they haven’t, before now, given any indication that they think past A–>B. B–>C seems to escape them. Why should it be different now?
Amaranthine RBG
I believe Marshall attributes Trumps Razor to John Scalzi.
Mnemosyne
Interesting and on the topic of elections: Mormon Press, of all places, has an interesting meditation on gender and why people assume Hillary is a huge liar when the facts show otherwise.
(Trigger warning for atheists: there is a short discussion of how this all relates to Mormon religious doctrine.)
Origuy
The link to the article with the NSFW title is broken. Somewhere in the land of Kinja lies the article.
ETA: Is this it?
Tim F.
@Origuy: Thanks! I fixed it.
Peter
Maybe it’s both. Maybe Cruz did submit a different speech to the campaign, and Donald suspected he might stab him in the back so he set the NY delegation up to crash the show if he went off-script.
Either way, it was a huge misstep from Trump. Massive. Cruz’s non-endorsement would have been a bit of a hit, but that on top of half the convention booing and heckling the speaker, on national TV on the one day when the general populace is actually kind-of paying attention to what Republicans do? Catastrophic. And yet, inevitable, because Drumpf is Drumpf.
Major Major Major Major
@Emma: I think the problem republicans have is that they interpret “a->b” mathematically, where the whole statement chain evaluates true as long as the premise ‘a’ is false.
SiubhanDuinne
@Origuy:
Ivana Wall! LOL, so very perfect!
Tim F.
@Emma: I suggested above that we suspend Trump’s razor when talking about pro wrestling. I sincerely think that is the one context where Trump can strategize and make what most people would think of as a coherent plan. I would think of him like Ron Suskind’s autistic son who cannot interact with the outside world except through Disney characters.
dmsilev
@Amaranthine RBG: I think the history goes that Marshall came up with the principle, and then Scalzi gave it its name. Collaborative work.
srv
You people have this benevolent, White Man’s Burden view of the world. Trump is a realist. The Middle-East, EU, NATO, all of them have been taking advantage of the US and we’re just chumps. The world needs to submit to our will or they can go it alone. Somehow, the poor old $18 Trillion GDP EU is some helpless damsel in distress and our boys need to die for their withering, elistist socialist culture.
The only thing worrisome about the switchboard story is that Trump might be more of a micromanager than we’re led to believe. Not very Reaganesque.
Emma
@Major Major Major Major: They flunked both math and logic a very long time ago. They also flunked all the skills listed under what one of my (long time ago) professors called “society-building 101”.
dmsilev
@Peter: Apparently the speech Cruz gave was exactly the same as the version that the RNC sent to reporters a couple of hours earlier (under an embargo). So, the one scenario we can rule out in this mess is the Cruz false-flag double-cross. It could have been a Trumpian triple-cross setup, it could have been Trumpian vetting incompetence, etc., but Cruz telegraphed what he was going to do.
Emma
@srv: Oh good. The real srv is back. Had you been off your regular meds lately?
CONGRATULATIONS!
I am profoundly uncomfortable with how alike US politics are to the world of the WWE.
Oh well, it’s what I have, not what I wanted.
Peter
@srv: Wow, you completely missed the irony in Kipling, didn’t you?
@dmsilev: Ah, the last I’d heard was ‘RNC sources’ saying that the speech he gave was different from what they’d gotten.
comrade scott's agenda of rage
This does sound more plausible than anything else. The problem is that the Villagers won’t see it that way and won’t report it that way.
I’m actually amazed that the headlines are more or less “Republicans in disarray” and I never thought I’d see that line of reporting from the Villagers. They’ll all shriek “the Republican party splits!” and if it didn’t happen after Goldwater, it won’t happen now. The right will simply look at this again as conservatism being failed, in this case not getting the “right” candidate. Of course that ignores the fact that Trump is the “right” candidate in that he’s the id of the modern Republican party, it’s just that he doesn’t give a crap about the party as an institution.
It’s always a good time to bring up the recent Thomas H Crown piece on Trump’s Campaign as a Real Estate Deal:
Iowa Old Lady
@Mnemosyne: That’s a good article. Thanks for the link.
Kristine Smith
@Mnemosyne: I retweeted that link/article–thanks for posting it.
And yes, I think it’s true.
Judge Crater
Maybe Ted Cruz is a better card player than Donald Trump. And, maybe, he has some principals. Trump, after all, smeared his wife and his father and Cruz himself. And Cruz probably understands the art of political in-fighting better than Trump. Cruz now looks like a man of principle (especially after this morning’s performance in front of the TX delegation) who took the blows and did it his way.
Finally, it seems unlikely to me that Trump understands subtleties in which he gets praised for being too nice a guy. He’s the guy that dishes it out, not the one who takes it. Nope I think Trump got sandbagged by Cruz.
Amir Khalid
Your link in paragraph 4 goes to a 404/not found error page.
Donald can’t avoid Hillary forever. He’s shown himself deficient in every way as a presidential candidate, and he’s come this far only because of the feeble opposition from within his own party, But there is no one else left to fight in this cage match. At some point soon after the conventions he has to face her.
As for Ted, I don’t get him. People hate him in DC, even his own party. He can’t hope to get much there to boost his presidential aspirations. He might win reelection because there’s a sizeable contingent of R voters in Texas who like arseholes, but I just can’t see him building the alliances he’d need for another serious run at the White House.
MJS
@srv: Trump is a “realist” who came to national prominence as a politician by promising 1) a huge wall along our border with Mexico which 2) Mexico will pay for. Ooookay.
dmsilev
@Peter: See this from TPM last night:
So, whatever happened, the RNC and the Trump campaign either knew or were mind-blowingly lax in their reading comprehension.
trollhattan
@srv:
“Realist”? Literally not a shred of Trump’s life or world view is realistic. Not. One.
Chyron HR
@MJS:
Mexico will pay for the wall once Trump makes them
respect our authoritahsubmit to our will.Agrippa
@Mnemosyne:
I read the article; and, it makes sense.
Peter
@dmsilev: Yep, then Donald just shot himself in the leg for no fucking reason.
Iowa Old Lady
@dmsilev: Holy crap. That’s even worse than I thought. Why did Trump allow Cruz to do that? Did he honestly think that speech would help him?
I conclude he was looking for a chance to step all over Cruz. I don’t know if he succeeded in doing that though.
Ian
@srv:
Wow… wow. You sure about that one?
FoxinSocks
Remember, Trump used to be involved in the WWE. So yes, I agree with this interpretation as well, that Trump drew on his WWE experience to set Cruz up. The booing from the NY delegation, Trump’s sudden appearance on the convention floor…that was all planned.
Except Trump and his people are so dumb, they didn’t realize that what might play well at the convention would be seen in a completely different light by the wider, non-insane audience. Especially because Trump tried to confront Cruz while Cruz was speaking about liberty and voting your conscience, quintessential American values. It made Trump look small and petty.
Central Planning
@Tim F.:
What, did his head finally explode from all the stupidity at the convention?
Agrippa
@comrade scott’s agenda of rage:
I think that the Thomas Crown article is pretty accurate.
Mingobat f/k/a Karen in GA
All these theories about Cruz and Trump are interesting, and one may very well be right — but I can’t get past the fact that they’re asking me to believe there are pockets of actual planning, organization, and forethought within this disaster of a circus-monkey-filled shitshow.
Bodacious
I would submit that I think the biggest winner last night is BOTH the Republican congress and the sane liberal voter. The standard repubs have always, and still do, HATE Teddy with a passion. They ain’t so happy with Trump. Hmmmm, who could we blame for a loss of Trump in November???? Cruz, the betrayer. What that one move did seal last night, whether orchestrated by Trump or not, sealed Cruz as the one guy that will have a laser on his back in 2020 – Ted Cruz. He can talk a good conservative game, but they now have proof he is unfit to represent them. A pass for future fealty.
And for myself, a death kneel for Teddy is a win for us in 2020….he is unsuited to lead this country. See, we can agree at times.
Peter
@Iowa Old Lady: That’s exactly why he did it, but it’s so absurdly self-defeating that if it was anyone but Trump, I wouldn’t believe it.
hovercraft
@Mnemosyne:
Good read, I’m not surprised that people refuse to believe their lying eyes, and cling to what they just ‘know’ Hillary’s a liar. At least people are finally beginning to recognize that Hillary Derangement Syndrome is going be perhaps more virulent than ODS.
Rommie
Sometimes you have to accept a weasel will be a weasel. They let TT go out there and gave him the choice of being a backstabbing git or not. And the weasel delivered. Now he’s the modern-day Brutus, and if they can’t find a viable alternative for 2020, they’re already screwed and they know it.
Bobby Thomson
@Emma: the real srv? Is that a zen koan?
dmsilev
@Iowa Old Lady:
That’s Tim F.’s thesis. Not really sure I agree with it (I’m more in the “they’re not competent enough to try to orchestrate anything like that” camp), but it’s worth thinking about. It’s a way to pass the time while we waiting for the Crowning Clusterfuck Of The Week, i.e. Trump’s speech tonight.
Tim F.
@Central Planning: If Trump said something about science as stupid as his comments about NATO, and the world expected me to write about them, it really might kill me.
Ian
@Judge Crater:
This caused vomiting.
Short Bus Bully
Great write up.
I grew up watching pro wrestling, it was an awesome part of my younger years and friends and I still loudly discuss our favorites over beers. Nature Boy Ric Flair is my avatar on Twitter. Woooooo!
But it is an acquired taste, to be sure. To imagine that the pro wrestling schtick will resonate with anyone outside of its already acquired fan base is ludicrous. Trump does not know how to do anything else, but for all the red meat this is to his fan base, it’s a huge turn off to anyone on the fence who is not a racist, ignorant redneck.
Emma
@Mnemosyne: That article reaffirms my belief that, when it comes to Hillary, appealing to the haters’ sense of fairness, or for that matter, factual reality, is a waste of time. Leave them be. Concentrate on your coalition and trying to pull in those people who may really be on the fence.
lamh35
this may be but it stepped all over “poor” Mike Pence. last night was supposed to be HIS night
Tim F.
@lamh35: Wait, are you implying that Trump gives a shit about Mike Pence?
Emma
@Bobby Thomson: More of a limerick.
lollipopguild
@Chyron HR: Trump will pay for the wall by stealing the money that Mexicans in this country send home to their families in Mexico. “We don’t need no stinking badges” becomes “We don’t need no stinking rules or laws”
Cacti
I think Cruz is positioning himself for 2020 a la Reagan in 1976.
He’s calculated that Trump is going to lose, going to drag down the GOP congressional majorities to an undetermined extent, and he’ll get to be the guy who steps in and says “I tried to warn you”.
Original Lee
I think I said this a couple of days ago, but I’m becoming more convinced with each passing day of the convention that Trump has three goals: 1) get someone to give him $10B to go away; 2) screw the GOP elites; and 3) enhance his brand.
Adam L Silverman
I’m not sure the Chef/South Park analogy is how you want to play this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NyB1Ocmh4IY
nominus
@Amir Khalid: That’s always been the paradox of Ted Cruz: either he really believes what he says, which means he’s so far beyond deluded that “fantasy world” doesn’t begin to describe his thought process, or else he knows that he’s shoveling horseshit, and that makes him the worst of the oily weasels that politics tends to attract. Either option equals a terrible choice for a leader of any kind – you wouldn’t even play a board game with someone like that. I’ve tried to figure out if that’s a false dichotomy and maybe there are other options, but so far I haven’t found any.
msb
Of course, CDS is well established and Hillary is a woman.
Gian
When I thought about it, what was missing was the sound system playing “Oh Canada” for Ted at the end of his Vote Ted 2020 speech. That would’ve been f-n awesome
rikyrah
this is a good post. The wrestling angle is good.
Bruce K
The thing that keeps drawing me up short is that the wrestling “heel” hypothesis seems to depend on the assumption that Trump and Cruz are playing the same game and following the same rule book. And I can’t believe that’s the case. It’s pretty much established that Cruz doesn’t give a damn about anyone but Cruz, and it’s blindingly obvious that Trump’s only in it for his own ego, and both have a pretty severe disconnect from reality (Cruz’s evidenced by his actions in the government shutdown crises, and Trump’s evidenced by … well, take your pick).
One thing’s for damn sure, they weren’t playing to the same audience last night. Trump was playing to the crowd in the arena, Cruz was playing to … I don’t know – the Never Trump hard-core right-wing evangelicals? Was he trying to cast Trump as the heel while Trump was trying to do the same to Cruz?
I can’t figure out what any of these guys are thinking any more, and frankly, it’s starting to scare the hell out of me.
Adam L Silverman
@Tim F.: Tim, don’t know if you saw my 10 AM post on the NATO thing. Also, good post. I think a lot of what Trump does runs on the model, espoused by Eric Bischoff in the title to his autobiography and about pro wrestling, controversy creates cash!
https://www.amazon.com/Eric-Bischoff-Controversy-Creates-Cash/dp/1416528547
gogol's wife
@Original Lee:
I read that as $108. I thought, is he really that desperate? But I did believe it for a second.
cmorenc
Devastating upcoming Clinton speech/debate line: “If Donald Trump can’t even make a great deal with Ted Cruz about a speaking spot at the Republican Convention, how can he make a “great deal” with Putin or any other world leader?
Adam L Silverman
@Central Planning: No, he missed my 10 AM post on the NATO thing.
gogol's wife
So if the wrestling analogy is valid, has not-the-Connecticut-Senator-or-Governor Linda MacMahon commented?
waspuppet
Where you been? They do that constantly. It’s as GOP mainstream as — well, Trumpism.
Waldo
I totally buy the idea that Trump stage-managed the reaction to Cruz’s speech to make Ted look like a heel. Trouble is the heel in this case wasn’t in on the plan. That’s not how it works in pro wrestling, and it didn’t work for Trump last night.
Fair Economist
This morning Cruz was saying he can’t support somebody who attacked his wife and his father. Keep in mind Cruz is in the South, i.e., in honor culture. He has to fight back against insults like this, even at personal cost, or he’s “unmanned”. He’s certainly trying to extract a possibility of future gain out of this too, but after those comments this morning I’m getting more of a feel that he felt he had to do this and is just making the best of it.
Miss Bianca
@Chyron HR: I read that as “Mexico will submit to our wall.” Same thing, really, in this case.
Tim F.
@Adam L Silverman: Yeah, I saw it after I posted. Characteristically you gave it far more thought and care than that moron ever deserves. I also kind of hotfooted Richard’s thing, although I would argue twenty minutes is outside the statute of limitations.
@Bruce K: Right, I never implied that Cruz had any idea what Trump would do. They are working with wildly different worldviews here. Cruz is playing chess and Trump is playing WWE RAW 2K16 AAARGH!! for XBOX One.
Wapiti
@lamh35: Yup. The one solid thing they’ve done during this convention is botch the control of the media cycle. Every day something has stolen thunder from what should have been the take-away.
Dmbeaster
This analysis jives with the rumors that the booing was scripted by the NY delegarion, and Trump then made his appearance right at that time. Not a coincidence.
Forget carnival barker. Trump is the pro wrestler persona, as well as the Kim Kardashian of reality TV politics.
Someone should distribute artwork of Trump as a pro wrestler.
Archon
Both Cruz and Trump made calculated risks. Cruz is banking on a landslide, historic Trump defeat where every conservative that endorsed Trump gets tarnished as unprincipled. In that scenario Cruz would be the obvious choice for conservatives in 2020. Trump on the other hand is looking for something that would help with a, “stabbed in the back” narrative in case of a (relatively close) loss. Look for Trump to argue that Ted Cruz (along with other fifth columnists conservatives) divided the party and hurt his chances if he loses.
So I think they both got what they wanted.
Mnemosyne
@dmsilev:
There was a claim yesterday (that I now can’t find) that the TelePrompTer was showing the endorsement speech while Cruz was giving the “conscience” speech. If so, I could see the RNC not bothering to cross-check that the media and the convention organizers were given the same speech.
Bruce K
@Tim F.: Whatever game Cruz is playing, I’d hesitate to say it’s chess. He seems to be the sort of guy who’d counter a Ruy Lopez with a Chewbacca Gambit, and that doesn’t tend to work very well in this galaxy…
Emma
@Fair Economist: One other thing you’re all missing is that he’s Cuban. Insults to family — even that 3rd cousin you only see at Christmas, weddings, and funerals and you can’t stand and you gossip about within the family group — are not tolerated. When it comes to closing ranks, we make every clan in GoT look like amateurs.
Comrade Scrutinizer
@Bruce K: There’s a term in wrestling called a worked shoot. In this case, Der Trumpentooten reads the speech that Cruz submitted. That’s the shoot part—absolutely true reflection of what Cruz intends to do. The work part is that Der Trumpentooten use the shoot to create a story – – – Cruz heel turn (double crossing traitor!!) booed by Das Trumpenproletariat and barely escaping by the skin of his teeth. That creates better reality TV (which is all Der Trumpentooten really cares about) than an announcement that instead of Cruz, one of the spawn of Der Trumpentooten will harangue the crowd again.
Comedy gold.
Emma
@Bruce K: @Bruce K: He’s playing fizzbin. So is Trump. Which is why it’s so difficult for us to figure out.
Mnemosyne
@Dmbeaster:
Hey, at least Kim Kardashian is a frickin’ liberal who tweets out in support of LGBT and BLM, even if she is a bit of a dim bulb.
Felonius Monk
@lamh35:
Mike Pence = Trump’s Pet Rock
Emma
@Mnemosyne: I think she’s actually very, very clever. She wanted to be a star, made a list of her assets, decided how to use them, and hasn’t stopped since.
Adam L Silverman
@Tim F.: No worries. Just didn’t want anyone to think I was derelict. I actually wrote that thing between 1 and 2 AM after someone posted the link to the Times story in one of the comment threads. I’m just glad the scheduling function worked right this time as I was away from my computer at 10.
trollhattan
@msb:
Double-whammy: a woman and a Clinton. Besides,old habits die hard.
gorram
@FoxinSocks: Part of it (which we’ve seen elsewhere with the Trump campaign) is that he hasn’t yet really felt the contrast between what plays well in the physical room and what plays well in the broader world. The convention marks the end of the GOP primary contest, and suddenly, the bigotry that played well in both is going to stop working out so well in general. Or at least, as consistently.
The other part of the problem is that Trump thought Cruz had crossed a line because his failure to endorse Trump was very offensive to He, Trump. That’s the level that Trump is at in terms of being able to conceptualize how others think: zilch. What Cruz said offended him (recall that that heel works best when it’s seen as cheating), so he thought he could pull that type of WWE move that uses Cruz as a heel and come off as this grand victor. But all that Cruz did was break with the expectation to endorse a member of your own Party, particularly if you attend the convention. His reasoning why – about freedom and conscience and such – was rooted in values that most people esteem more than Party procedure, let alone loyalty to Donald Trump. In short, Trump made him a heel in a way that makes sense to him, but to vanishingly few other people besides.
Jeffro
@Judge Crater:
Sorry but as a former elementary school principal, I must object…you mean ‘maybe he has some principles‘
Whew. Just had to get that over with. Please let’s proceed.
Jeffro
@Amir Khalid:
All IQ, no EQ, is my take on it.
Felonius Monk
@Mnemosyne:
I saw that, but IIRC the gist was that the Trump/RNC people rewrote his speech believing he would just read it off the teleprompter — Idiots.
Seanly
I didn’t watch any of this, but I was wondering this morning if it was a coordinated move. The pro wrestling’s faked drama is an excellent comparison – the people most likely to fall for that swill are already leaning towards Trump anyway.
Of course, it’s disappointing to see that once again, the media seems to have no bullshit meter. They just seem to happily lap up whatever drivel is poured in their dishes.
Bruce K
@Emma: So, given that the speech was given on a Wednesday after sunset … who got dealt the king?
Emma
@Bruce K: We don’t know yet. The receiver had the option to have it dealt face down.
Adam L Silverman
@Jeffro: How do you know he doesn’t have some principals? Have you checked his basement?//
Jeffro
@nominus:
Cruz obviously wants to rule the world, and his IQ makes him feel like he can solve for X to put in there. Unfortunately, his lack of EQ isn’t processing all available feedback from the rest of the world: “we don’t want you anywhere near us, creep”.
In a way, it is a relief. If Ted Cruz’s brain would allow for the possibility of him being the power behind the throne, he could get Trump through this mess and probably on to a real nail-biter vs Hillary Clinton.
He’s already figured out how to solve about half of his 2016 problems as he “pivots” for 2020…again fortunately for the country, the other half will never go away as long as he’s breathing.
Jeffro
@Adam L Silverman:
I haven’t had nightmares in years but now I’m not so sure about tonight…thanks a lot Adam
catclub
@Original Lee: My number was $500M.
And no one will do it because all those GOP billionaires are also cheapskates. And if they contributed, but somebody else did not, loss of face for being suckers.
Net result: Trump does not get $500M to go away and the GOP is still stuck with him.
Central Planning
@Tim F.: Well, if he does, please don’t write about it ;)
Adam L Silverman
@Jeffro: de nada.
catclub
@Adam L Silverman: In Paper Moon, Addie Pray yells at her dad: “If you have any scruples I bet you stole them from somebody else” or words to that effect.
FoxinSocks
@gorram:
I like how you put that, especially the last part.
MCA1
I tend to agree that this was just a predictably horrible miscalculation by Team Trump, thinking that the dynamics inside the arena would be perceived by a television audience and the chattering class the same way they would by the WrestleMania fans inside the hall.
On the other hand, if there was any larger GOP signoff on this, it’s the smartest thing Reince Priebus has done in his stint. They have (i) a toxic candidate who succeeded in a party coup and would destroy “their” party were he to win the election, and (ii) a hardline, true believing, unelectable radical that no one could stand, who posed a threat to future reconciliation after the powers that be do their best to undercut the usurping Frankenstein’s monster this year, but who nevertheless was willing to strap a bomb on his back. So they let him do it. Cruz blew up his own future in national politics (unless the Party actually falls apart and he can align some coalition of teavangelicals and libertarians and raise a new GOP out of the ashes), and slung yet another albatross around Drumpf’s neck all in one. Win win for whatever’s left of the establishment Republicans.
Central Planning
@Jeffro: No worries – we’re all pedants here.
Shell
Well hey,it worked on Ron Burgundy
Josie
@Amir Khalid: You have to remember that Cruz is a true believer, who has been raised hearing that he is “the one” who will save us all. He might honestly think that there are hordes of other true believers out there that will rise up in 2020 and elect him president if he just keeps on keeping on. He is a strange combination of great intelligence and great delusion.
TriassicSands
Nonsense. Apparently you’ve forgotten who will be voting in November.
Hint: Amurkins.
I’m not saying Trump will win, but that last night didn’t end Trump’s chances.
Dadadadadadada
@Shell: And I’m sure it would have worked on Donald Trump. They just assumed that everyone is as clumsy-minded as he is, and would just read the wrong speech without incident.
Steeplejack (phone)
@Mnemosyne:
I, too, saw (a reference to) that claim, but I remain extremely skeptical until the actual picture shows up somewhere.
Kelly
Many years ago during the Bill Clinton administration Trump saw the dangerous trajectory the Republican party was on and courageously began his secret kamikaze mission to sink the Republican party. His sacrifice will not be recognized in our lifetimes but songs will be written in his honor in our future socialist utopia.
Miss Bianca
@catclub: Near as I recall, that exchange goes like this: LongBoy to Addie:”Because I’ve got scruples. Do you know what scruples are?”
Addie to LongBoy: “No, but if you’ve got ’em it’s a sure bet they belong to somebody else!”
(Why yes, I *have* watched that movie over and over and over again. And the book it’s based on, “Addie Pray”, by Joe David Brown, is one long solid delight. “Paper Moon” is that rara avis, an adaptation worthy of its source material!)
Gelfling 545
@Amaranthine RBG: Scalzi named it. Marshall expounded the principle.
West of the Rockies (been a while)
@Bruce K:
I’d guess Teddy boy was addressing Pentecostal tongues-speaking, bugout bag-having, conspiracy theory-believing yahoos.
Gelfling 545
@dmsilev: i still think it was that the Trumpsters thought voting your conscience would not be an issue to anybody they knew.
catclub
QOTD from Kevin Drum
catclub
@Miss Bianca: Longboy? Was it Mose(s) Pray in the movie?
West of the Rockies (been a while)
@Bruce K:
Sci-fi and chess chat… My brother!
Miss Bianca
@catclub: yep, you’re right – he’s Moses Pray, but in the movie he’s called Moze, and in the book he’s called Long Boy. I saw that as I posted and I was too damn lazy to do anything about it!
West of the Rockies (been a while)
I wonder what David Frum thinks about the state of his party now in his heart of hearts… He and Michael Steele and a few others seem to know the wheels are falling off the wagon.
Jeffro
@Kelly:
At this point, a significant portion of the GOP has to be thinking this…
Aleta
Trump thinks in units of TV viewers, clicks, headlines and press pieces to measure his success. That’s how he defines “showbiz” — by quantitative attention paid, not reviews. (Not saying he’s not affected by critics, just that he has a different bottom line.)
I don’t believe he will win, but I believe he’s able to see the convention as a personal success. In particular because it’s a coming out party for his kids to display their “poise” (CNN likes to call it) and polish. (Hey CNN: Neither prove he is a great father or they are good people.)
If he loses but his hotels fill up and countries like China and Russia invite his family to talk bigger business, I think he’ll call it good. “All the world’s a stage.” (Melania Trump as quoted by Baud.)
That is, world money is where it’s at; fuck the US if it can’t take a joke.
Jeffro
@West of the Rockies (been a while): Frum and Steele and Gerson and K. Parker and a few others (just a few) have been saying this for about a year now. While that is about a decade too late, I have to give them a little credit for noting that Trump is not merely extreme – the word doesn’t begin to cover it – he’s actually off-planet in terms of unacceptability. That’s more than can be said for Christie, McCain, Palin, Gingrich, Perry, Cotton, Ernst, Rubio, and so very many others (including Nikki Haley – hey Nikki’s, how’s that last-second “of COURSE” [I’ll be voting for Donald Trump] look in the light of day today???)
philadelphialawyer
I don’t buy it. If Cruz did submit his real speech, then Trump and Co. didn’t bother to read it.
Nothing was “set up.” Trump and his stooges reacted to be being dissed.
And then back filled the elaborate “double cross” explanation to give the gullible press their proper “Trump is a genius showman” story.
But, even at that, the press doesn’t know which way to play it….is Trump the WWE genius, who got the better of Cruz? Or did Cruz, in the words of the RNC Snipes guy on CNN, violate “the norms.”
The last bit is really amazing, as Trump has violated every norm imaginable, during his whole campaign, and his whole life. Specifically, he insulted Cruz’s wife on the basis of her appearance, AND said that Cruz’s father was involved in the assassination of a US President. Still, somehow, Cruz is obligated to play by the rules? Why would that be?
I still think the simplest explanation is the best one: Cruz burned Trump. Trump is negligent and sloppy and lazy (ie he didn’t even read the proposed speech) or just flat out stupid (ie he didn’t see how “vote your conscience,” the motto of NeverTrump, was a direct shot at him). Trump IS not some evil genius, and even his instinct for low cunning is overstated.
Gelfling 545
@Ian: well, you k ow, some restrictions apply.
Splitting Image
In the long run, I don’t think it matters who burned who. The entire point of a party convention is to minimize the differences between the candidates and bring the entire party together behind whoever won the primaries. The Republicans used to be really good at this, but this time around almost every story coming out of the RNC has been about how different camps within the party have different stories about what is going on.
The events surrounding Trump choosing Mike Pence as VP? Disputed. Was Melania’s speech plagiarized? Disputed. Who did the plagiarizing? Disputed. Will Trump actually do any work as President? Disputed. Does Trump actually support jailing Hillary Clinton? Disputed, at best. Will the US honour its NATO commitments if Trump is elected? Disputed. Did Cruz endorse Trump? Disputed.
Party unity my ass. This time for real.
J R in WV
@Fair Economist:
Yes, this!
And President Bill Clinton grew up in the southern Honor Society too. This is why he denied any sexual relationship with Monica, to protect both Monica AND Hillary from the scandal about to erupt.
Don’t forget, if Monica hadn’t kept that blue dress, AND told a Republican mole about keeping the dress [why, oh, why did she talk about it, to anyone?] Bill would never have been contradicted about that story.
Emma
@J R in WV:
Because she wanted to boast. I have never understood the ‘poor little seduced girl” narrative here. She was fully aware of what she did. She expected something to happen. She didn’t expect a political circus.
Tim F.
@philadelphialawyer: I don’t see why Trump planning the whole thing necessarily means that it was not also a disaster for Trump. Both of those two seem consistent to me. He loves that kind of show, but he is also a fucking idiot with no perspective. Successfully pulling off the ambush does not remotely suggest that the results will help him or the GOP in any possible way.
Cal D
One point in Tim F’s post above brought to mind something I read on TPM the other day, so I went back and found it again. This was in a blog post by Josh Marshall on 7-16 titled Dominance and Humiliation, No Middle Ground.
I really thought that, “you are either his enemy or his property” was a nice turn of phrase that made the same point succinctly.
Jeffro
@philadelphialawyer:
I think Josh Marshall calls this “Trump’s Razor” – go with whichever explanation fits with Trump’s stupidity, or something like that.
Dadadadadadada
@Jeffro: The stupidest explanation that fits the facts. (I cribbed that from a BJ post of earlier today.) A theory developed by Josh Marshall and John Scalzi.
philadelphialawyer
@Splitting Image: I completely agree with this too. Even if every single one of these instances was “set up” by Trump, they still work to his disadvantage. Sure, in the world Trump usually operates in, any publicity might be good publicity. Because you only need a small percentage of whoever hears it to buy, or watch, or whatever. As long as the absolute number of suckers who respond positively generates a profit, it doesn’t matter if even the overwhelming majority of folks exposed to the publicity are repulsed, disgusted, etc. But, when it comes to the general election, Trump needs a majority of actual voters to respond favorably…the proportion is what matters, not the absolute number. Literally tens of millions of suckers might buy into the con, but that isn’t good enough. At the convention, sure, the story is all about Trump, one way or the other. But that was always going to be the case, and it actually does matter what the content of the story is, and not just that it is “free publicity.”
philadelphialawyer
@Tim F.: I agree. It doesn’t actually help Trump, even if he did set it up. But I still don’t believe he did.
chopper
@West of the Rockies (been a while):
i wonder if someday frum will just walk away entirely and change his last name to ‘Frei’.
JustRuss
@Amir Khalid:
I don’t know, Nixon managed to pull it off.
Soylent Green
Trump is in this for bigger stakes than his hotel revenues. He wants to be king of the wingnut welfare circuit. It’s all about the brand. A gig running his mouth on Faux News, lots of ghostwritten book sales, and Clinton-level speaking fees. He thinks because he has gotten this far that he will be celebrated by the nutjob masses as a brilliant political sage until his dying day. And he may be right, although I doubt it.
EBT
Another link on the same topic from last year. http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2015/09/14/3701084/donald-trump/
Upbeatred1
@gogol’s wife: McMahon was never elected to office in CT.
your brother in sin
you are all self-parodies who assert as truth the first emotionally appealing thing that comes into your head
Paul in KY
@Short Bus Bully: Bobo Brazil was my favorite.
Paul in KY
@cmorenc: Shorter: ‘If Trump can’t deal with Ted Cruz, how can he deal with Iran or Putin?!’
Paul in KY
@J R in WV: They should have known that evil Linda Tripp was a freaking Republican & ensured she was not in there to freaking begin with!!!
andy delbon
if hillary wins we start a ballroom blitz