Here’s a little story to leaven the gloom cast by Nuremberg on the Cuyahoga*…
…I’d guess it’s kind of intuitive, but now we can point to Science! as we divide our fellow Americans into their respective Hogwarts houses.
Trump supporter: Slytherin
Those who recognize Trump’s cousinhood w. he who must not be named, and that Godwin fellow too — off you go. It’s Hufflepuff, Ravenclaw, Gryffendor, as your particular talents and qualities lead you. [via Lenika Cruz at The Atlantic]:
…a forthcoming study from the journal PS: Political Science and Politicsmakes a better case for how lessons learned from fiction can influence people’s political preferences. The researcher Diana Mutz, a professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania, found that Harry Potter book readers are actually more inclined to dislike Trump. This was the case even after Mutz controlled for variables such as age, education, gender, party identification, evangelical identification, and ideology.
The key question here is the arrow of causality, which is what Mutz’s study attempts to study. As Cruz notes in her write up,
There will always be limits to the usefulness of comparing real people to fictional characters. And so far, there has been only one other empiricalstudy exploring the political impact of reading Harry Potter (unlike Mutz, the researchers didn’t control for important factors such as political ideology.)
But it seems less specious to argue that the bestselling book series of all time could instill values that affected how its readers—especially its younger fans—now think about the world.
I’m not going to depend on my mastery of a Riddikulus! spell to deal with the real and deadly serious menace of the Republican nominee. But perhaps maybe the long-view approach to helping our Trump-dazed Wingnut-American fellow citizens is to hand them a book. (Or even better, the magnificent audio books for those long, dark, nighttime journeys of the soul.)
A boy can dream.
*Stolen from somewhere on the ‘Tubes, but I can’t remember where. Apologies to the author…
Image: poster for a revival of Gilbert and Sullivan’s The Sorcerer, 1884.
rikyrah
Trump’s Outrageous Foreign Policy Views
by Nancy LeTourneau
July 21, 2016 3:32 PM
Recently I’ve noticed that I have developed two lines of defense against the kind of panic I would feel about an actual Trump presidency. First and foremost is the fact that the odds against him being elected are enormous. The Upshot recently calculated that Clinton has a 76% chance of winning.
Running a distance second to that defense is the fact that, as Stephen Colbert put it, “If he doesn’t ever have to mean what he says, that means he can say anything.” As soon as Trump says something truly outrageous, he and his campaign get busy walking it back. Just to demonstrate the level of outrageousness expressed by Trump, I actually fear his unpredictability less than I do what he says.
I must admit that the second line of defense tends to crumble with stories like the one Kevin Drum reports with this headline: “Donald Trump Just Invited Russia to Attack Eastern Europe.” Or how about this one from Jeffrey Goldberg? “It’s Official: Hillary Clinton Is Running Against Vladimir Putin.” Neither one of these men are the type who are prone to hyperbole. Here’s more from Goldberg:
Major Major Major Major
I don’t see how liking a particular book can account for political leanings after you’ve already accounted for political ideology, but then again it’s 6:30am and I didn’t read the study. Especially since the HP books are rather ethically straightforward. The bad guys hate and torture and are corrupt, and the good guys, less so. And Voldemort didn’t even make the trains run on time.
OT: Ezra Klein shows his age: Donald Trump’s nomination is the first time American politics has left me truly afraid.
Gin & Tonic
I think you mean “Cuyahoga.” And the footnote doesn’t go anywhere.
schrodinger's cat
I haven’t read the Harry Potter books and have seen only the first 3 movies. They are OK, not great but I feel the same way about The Lord of The Rings too. So may be British/English fantasy is just not my thing.
SFAW
@Gin & Tonic:
I figured it was Tom riffing on Cuya-HUGE-a.
Although the asterisk-leading-nowhere is troubling. I think it means brown people waylaid Tom, or are coming to kill all of us, just like Deadbeat Donnie said they would — unless he becomes Fuehrer.
ruemara
I’ve been calling rank & file Republicans “ravinians” from the Pendragon book series for quite a few years now. I think, since most books deal with good and evil, especially kids books who often look at institutional evil, this is not terribly surprising.
Also last call for the SDCC meet up at Karl Strauss in Mira Mesa. Email to my nym if you can. But drop in at 7 p of m if you just get a wild hair up your butt.
Major Major Major Major
Jim “dumbest man on the internet” Hoft has a headline today that says that Peter Thiel came out of the closet at the RNC, because he’s the dumbest man on the internet.
But it’s generally nice to see that 90% of the headlines are about how Manhattan Mussolini is just that. I mean, I guess. Strictly speaking it’s better than the alternative, but something is still very wrong with the situation.
@schrodinger’s cat: The movies get way better as you go through, although if you didn’t like Azkaban…
@ruemara: Your nym is not an email address. If I were in SD, which I’m not, I would be disappoint.
Elmo
To me this isn’t all that surprising. One forms one’s worldview based on inputs. Parents are an input; peers are an input; and literature, arts, entertainment are all inputs.
I know that my own conceptions of honor, duty, strength, fairness, and the like were formed in part by what I read as a child, and then either reinforced or not by the world around me. If you immerse yourself in worlds where the hero is not only strong but kind, and the highest goal is to seek justice as well as victory, that can’t help but inform your worldview.
JohnPM
Tom, it has been great seeing you back here and reading your posts.
scav
@Major Major Major Major: You can think of it as the books are explaining a trend in the data still seen after the statistical contribution of ideology and religion (their explanatory contribution) have been removed. It’s got a smaller predictive value, but still helps. Two identical people, one having read HP the other not and all you know is whether they’ve read the book, it would help you make a better bet as to who they’d vote for.
jonas
Historians have long recognized the seminal role of the modern novel in forging the cultural context for the human rights revolution of the 18th-19th century (abolitionism, suffragism, workers rights, etc.). As readers identify with characters, particularly characters facing injustice or struggling to right a wrong, they develop empathy that then comes to inform how they see the wider world.
I suspect many on the authoritarian right — aka Trump’s base — have one thing in common: they don’t read novels. Hence their capacity to have empathy for those outside their immediate circle of friends and family who may be facing struggles in life has never matured.
bluehill
@rikyrah:
Clinton’s odds of winning in 538’s poll of polls has been steadily falling. I just hope that the pollsters are able to avoid whatever the issues were with the Brexit polling, which show Remain ahead. I think that some Trump sympathizers won’t broadcast their support but will vote for him.
WaterGirl
@Major Major Major Major: I think it’s her nym @gmail.com
Matt McIrvin
@rikyrah: [quoting Nancy LeTourneau]
That’s not enormous. That’s worse odds than Russian roulette.
FlipYrWhig
@bluehill: I think the vast majority of Trump supporters aren’t embarrassed by it at all — the whole point is to be in your face.
jonas
@Major Major Major Major:
IIRC, Thiel was in fact outed by the Gawker website a while back, which he never forgave them for and set out to destroy by backing Hulk Hogan’s lawsuit against them. Proud to be gay indeed.
Matt McIrvin
@Major Major Major Major: I do hope we can now all stop talking about Peter Thiel as if he were a sage thought leader of the future.
Major Major Major Major
@scav: Ah, so it’s curiosity, v. incuriosity, a willingness to read fiction v. not.
Kylroy
I’ve always thought Voldemort’s “There is only power, and those too weak to take it” is a pretty good summation of the current Republican philosophy.
Baud
@Matt McIrvin: As long as he’s criticizing Democrats, he’ll always have a place in our political culture.
MattF
I admit to being an HP fan. Kidlit is a literary genre and it has various conventions just like any other genre– and Rowling does it very well.
O. Felix Culpa
Clinton will – and must – win. She is out-organizing Trump and her superior GOTV will be, in the end, all that matters.
The noxious Slytherin gathering in Cleveland has had a wonderfully galvanizing effect on the House of Gryffindor: huge turnout for yesterday’s HRC phone banking event in Santa Fe and lots of new volunteer sign-ups. Texas Senator Wendy Davis came to encourage the troops (to boldly mix my metaphors). Stronger Together.
SiubhanDuinne
Lovely to see The Sorcerer — I was just listening to it a few days ago.
The couple pictured are Sir Marmaduke Poindexter and Lady Sangazure. And to show that Dickens wasn’t the only 19th-century Englishman who came up with funny and apt names for his characters, “Poindexter” literally means “right-handed fist” but is also a term for “a boringly studious and socially inept person,” while “Sangazure” is “blue blood.”
Baud
@O. Felix Culpa: Excellent. And thank you.
geg6
This does not surprise me at all. Literature is powerful. Exhibit A: Uncle Tom’s Cabin.
O. Felix Culpa
@MattF:
While I enjoyed HP, I prefer Alexander Lloyd’s “Chronicles of Prydain” as a coming of age story and learning responsible use of power.
schrodinger's cat
@Major Major Major Major: I plan to eventually see them all. I liked Azkaban well enough but am not a crazy fan who uses HP references for everything.
Feathers
This shouldn’t be a surprise at all. It was the explicit intent of the novels. In her commencement address at Harvard, which should be required viewing (link), she says that the Harry Potter series was deeply informed by her time working at Amnesty International. I’m going to include a long link, but your should read the whole thing Text Link:
The Harry Potter books are seen as just being about kids at a wizard school, but they are also about how a dictatorship comes to power, the sorts of people who give in, and the sorts of people who fight.
BR
I’ll say it again — we need to mock Trump, mock him over and over. Fearing him and expressing our fear to others won’t do it. Mockery will do it. Public mockery by comedians, celebrities, etc. will work even better because Trump will overreact and make himself more mockable. And mockery takes away his power — he’ll look ridiculous rather than strong, and that will be a feedback loop.
It works in person too — you don’t have to mock supporters of his, just mock Trump and only Trump. His appear to them is his seeming power, and if he seems like a joke they won’t like him as much.
bluehill
@FlipYrWhig: True, but that group isn’t enough to win. They are that 40% ceiling that the pundits refer to. I just think there’s some smaller, less vocal group that will vote for him and that pollsters could miss. Hope it’s really small.
scav
@Major Major Major Major: That, a wonder to be found in positing worlds different from one’s own, the things above about moral codes outside of the narrowly religious, the ability and desire to read longer than 20 pages . . . “Further Study Is Required.”
BR
@BR:
I should add — the one thing mocking him for that might not be as effective is his hair. I think he’s too used to it that he knows how to roll with the punches on that. But mocking him about other things, especially his businesses and such, will work.
Major Major Major Major
@bluehill: the Brexit result was well within the margin of error. And the lousy weather in Remain strongholds didn’t help.
@jonas: he was out before that. Just didn’t talk about it much around investors.
bluehill
@Major Major Major Major: Good point.
Terry chay
@jonas: he was never outed by Gawker. he was already out. After the fact he made that claim to create a frame for his actions that people would support.
burnspbesq
The better G&S reference would be to The Mikado: Trump is running for Lord High Executioner, and he’s got a little list (which you’re probably on).
And as for the RNC, thank heaven that’s over.
geg6
@bluehill:
I think if what you’re saying is true, we’d have seen that effect in the primaries. But we didn’t, so I don’t think those people actually exist.
Amir Khalid
Gsk ,tsk. It’s Gryffindor, not Gryffendor.
Donald Trump has the business ethics of a Mundungus Fletcher and the hunger for power of a Tom Marvolo Riddle. I suspect that in him there is also the barely concealed cowardice of a Lucius Malfoy.
Major Major Major Major
@Feathers: but this is *after* controlling for political ideology. So a person’s politics being influenced by the books is already counted into the analysis and they STILL found a “Harry potter effect”.
When I first saw the headlines I had the same thought but I guess they did control for that.
gvg
there is also the self sorting of who likes to read, then read good versus evil with good defined as kind and not torturing not as adhering to certain rules (religion).
Trump and many of his supporters don’t seem to read and as time goes by they get further and further behind everyone else and them blame others. My nephew is dyslexic and reading is such an effort that he said he hated reading which my reading says is pretty common. 2 years of therapy and switching to a private school seem to have finally paid off and he now manages to read new things without being afraid. I worried that he would get left behind. He didn’t do anything to cause this. It makes me wonder though how so many people resent knowledge. My nephew had a whole family of book lovers backing him. Others don’t. That may be one factor in the Harry Potter survey-whose background provides them with lots of books. Books are a major way to learn to imagine being someone else. A long time ago I noticed that “conservatives” seemed not to understand anyone who wasn’t exactly like themselves.
O. Felix Culpa
@Amir Khalid:
Shorter: Trump = Voldemort
Roger Moore
@jonas:
Again, though, you have to wonder about cause and effect. Do they not develop empathy because they refuse to read novels, or do they find novels boring and unreadable because they lack the empathy to enjoy reading about somebody substantially different from themselves?
Major Major Major Major
@O. Felix Culpa: at least he doesn’t make you get your loyalty oath tattooed. Yet.
Joel
@bluehill: There will be a convention bounce for Trump — history is a strong precedent here, regardless of how his speeches are received — but Clinton’s lead has been fairly steady since the outset. There’s always going to be a lot of variance in the polling, particularly early on. McCain even led Obama for a significant part of 2008 (following the Palin nomination), and we know how that turned out.
Clinton has a strong firewall. Based on current polling, Sam Wang has Clinton pegged for an 80% chance of victory, based on Bayesian priors. 80% is far from 100% but it’s very hard to build that kind of insurmountable lead at this point of the campaign.
One thing that conerns me is that the Democrats have a razor thin margin in the Senate. That wasn’t supposed to happen this year, and their margin is almost entirely attributable to Bayh’s re-entry into politics.
Matt McIrvin
@BR:
Most people already find Trump foul and ridiculous. Our biggest problem right now is that too many centrists and liberals who dislike Trump also dislike Hillary Clinton, for whatever reason, and have this cynical “pox on all their houses” attitude. I don’t know if mocking Trump does anything to break that: you can just set against it some old image of Hillary as Tracy Flick or Nurse Ratched and, ha ha, they’re equally mockworthy. It’s all just a big silly JibJab revue.
On the other hand, anyone who isn’t crazy enough to believe old Scaife propaganda knows that Hillary Clinton is not going to put a bullet in your head for disliking her, and we really, really don’t know that about Trump.
Major Major Major Major
@Joel: why does that concern you? A few months ago ‘taking back the senate’ was in the nice-to-have column, now it’s likely.
Bobby Thomson
1. The arrow is definitely in the wrong direction. The themes against racism are not at all subtle.
2. The very anti-Trump Slytherins I know would not be happy with this.
ruemara
@Major Major Major Major: been saying my nym @ gmail.com for a bit, pedant cubed.
Thanks terribly much, Watergirl. Missed the end of that since I’m barely woke and trying to plan all the details.
Gin & Tonic
@BR: True. I think the two turning points in the 2008 campaign were Tina Fey’s impersonation of Sarah Palin, and David Letterman’s “You want me to call you a cab, John?”
Grumpy Code Monkey
If Trump wins, I’m heading to MSNBC headquarters to slap Tweety, Hewitt, and even Rachel. Then down to CNN headquarters to do the same. And every other fucking news outlet in the US.
Had these people done their fucking job, we’d be poking fun at Jeb Bush right now. But no, Trump made for good TV, so they gave him free airtime and didn’t push back when he got creative with the truth. Fucking Hewitt gave that horrorshow of a speech a B-, and only that low because Trump didn’t pay sufficient fealty to the troops.
Even Rachel didn’t push back on the most outrageous aspects of that speech.
If Trump wins in November, it will be the American news media that put him over the top.
scav
@Major Major Major Major: Getting into the weeds probably, but it could also be that the controls for political ideology that they removed somehow missed the HP effect. Makes sense that reading, especially at a certain age would shape world and political views. Could be entirely / at least somewhat artificial which bucket some of the influences get tossed under. Plus all the other things. Does reading HP have the same predictive value as reading the Percy Jackson series, or is it just reading in general (more educational bucket?) or or or.
Shell
The one lie that makes me want to pull my hair out is that Clinton wants to abolish the 2nd amendment. (Funny, isn’t that the same thing they’ve been accusing Obama for the past 8 years)
And even if that was remotely true,…Hey, Assholes. A SITTING PRESIDENT CANNOT, REPEAT, CANNOT REPEAL A CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT!
Sorry for the all caps.
gene108
Campaign volunteer question. I live in a safely Republican Congressional district in NJ (represented by a Republican 17 of the 19 years I lived here).
Should I volunteer my time for NJ voter registration, for example, or hop across the border and work in PA?
There are no NJ Senate races and Hillary will win NJ easily.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Major Major Major Major: Yeah, my recollection is retaking the Senate has always been about a 50/50 shot. My (admittedly somewhat superficial) take on the polls and stories I’ve seen over the last few months: Incumbents Ayotte, Toomey and Portman have maintained slight leads, Iowa’s a longshot, and people here have said Judge just isn’t a great candidate, FL has never been a given, the GOP in CO shot itself in the foot just a couple weeks ago. Even in IL and WI, the Republicans have never been as weak as we, and common sense, might think they should be.
Matt McIrvin
@Joel: Convention bounces aren’t certain: Romney’s in 2012 was so tiny as to be barely detectable. His biggest gain of the entire election campaign came from his genuinely good performance in the first general-election debate (which he would not repeat in the second or third ones).
But even when convention bounces do happen, they tend to be short-lived. So we can’t bank on the persistence of any good numbers coming out of the Democratic convention, either. The conventions are really unusually early this year, and there will be a slow silly season around the Rio Olympics between the DNC and when the convention really gets rolling. It’ll be… interesting to see if the Democrats can stay united against Trump through that.
Frankensteinbeck
I love the Harry Potter books. Fun reads. Still, the prejudices inherent in the depiction of the Houses bothers me. Slytherin was bad because it was taken over by racists, which is not inherent in the concept of ambition to be great – the defining feature, a virtue, and the one that almost got Harry sorted into Slytherin. By the same token, Gryffindor could have been taken over by violent warmongers. We may currently be living through a time of chickenhawks, but historically it was brave men who looked for any excuse to get their conquest on, and led from the front. And HufflePuff is shuffled into the background, when the virtue of hard work and tolerance are pretty damn great.
CONGRATULATIONS!
@Major Major Major Major: LOL someone didn’t live through Reagan. I’d tell him “imagine this same guy you saw giving the speech tonight, but senile, and running one side of an undeclared war where over 12,000 nuclear misslies were primed, aimed, and ready to fire. THAT is when you will know what it is to be afraid of a presidential candidate.”
bluehill
@Joel: Yeah, I’m expecting that and we won’t have a good idea of the net convention effects until mid-week after the dem convention. Sam’s polling is more reassuring, but I vaguely recall in last mid-term (?) he and Silver got into a little tiff because their models were pointing to different results and then a couple of weeks (?) before the election Sam’s model started agreeing with Silver’s. Could be totally different scenario and not applicable to this year’s elections.
Aimai
@Elmo: yes. Umberto eco had a great piece years ago–a short essay defending war play/imagionary hero play as a place where honorable and coursgeous virtues can be formed. I dont hVe a link and i read it years ago but i think it makes this point.
Matt McIrvin
@CONGRATULATIONS!: I don’t know, I think I’m about equally scared, except that Reagan had a much higher chance of winning. With Reagan the danger was a nuclear holocaust, with Trump it’s a plain old Holocaust.
I guess the nuclear kind could happen too once Putin starts invading Europe, though if Trump just lets him do it, the US could be spared from direct attacks (unless they’re from our former allies in Western Europe).
Feathers
@Major Major Major Major: But a person’s politics and being able to recognize totalitarianism and the personality traits of an authoritarian or sociopath are two different things. My guess is that the Harry Potter readers are picking up on what is “off” about Donald Trump, regardless of their political leanings. As well as the excuses people are making for following him.
MattF
@Feathers: Rowling is very clear about torture– the revelations about Neville’s parents and the overall arc of Neville’s story are an unmistakeable thread in the larger story.
Dadadadadadada
@gene108: I live in the Bronx, and I concluded long ago that PA is where it’s at. Though there’s more value in flipping a mostly-red district than in adding half a shade of blue to a bright-blue district, so YMMV.
Major Major Major Major
@bluehill: On a general level, Sam is better because a) he’s not in it for clicks and b) he publishes his code.
On a model level, Sam accounts for random drift and Nate does not, so their models would tend to converge towards the end. At least, we think so, since nobody knows how Nate’s model actually works.
bluehill
@Matt McIrvin: Yes, different kinds of horrors. With Trump, I feel like he’s dividing the country in a way that Reagan wasn’t. I wasn’t worried about the possibility of an internal purge of undesirables. The most terrifying words now are “I’m Donald Trump and I am your voice.”
Major Major Major Major
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
They do have a way of doing that.
Matt McIrvin
@bluehill: I think that some Clinton supporters won’t broadcast their support but will vote for her.
It’s been a tough time to be a vocal supporter of Hillary Clinton, so far–you can’t even really be enthusiastic about it in liberal/progressive circles; the Bernie dead-enders, tech dudes who mostly adulate Ed Snowden and pox-on-all-houses progressives will dogpile on you. Even with Obama and Bernie endorsing, the coalescence just hasn’t quite happened yet. There’s so much “I just don’t like her and I don’t know why.”
I’m not actually sure that Trump is the one whose poll numbers are artificially depressed by social-desirability bias.
Joel
@bluehill: Their differences were largely because Sam’s model allowed for less uncertainty in the prediction, and Nate’s model introduced a lot of (unknowable to the reader) variables that may not improve the accuracy of its predictions. Notably, Silver’s “extra variables” failed pretty badly in the primaries this year.
In a sense, both were right and both were wrong, and in the general they’ve (quietly) introduced what I perceive as minor tweaks to their predictions. Foundationally, I think Sam’s model is stronger because it is so simple: just state polls. I also appreciate his transparency and willingness to engage with readers.
Dadadadadadada
@Matt McIrvin: For every racist gooper afraid to tell a random pollster how racist there are, there are multiple gooperettes who will vote for Clinton and are too afraid to tell anyone, possibly ever.
Matt McIrvin
@bluehill: Sam Wang has admitted that his model just wasn’t that good at predicting midterm results. His theory is that polls are just much less predictive in a midterm, where turnout is dramatically lower and motivated groups can easily swing an election.
The question is whether, as Presidential elections go, this is going to be a high-turnout election or a low-turnout one. I could see it going either way.
gogol's wife
@Matt McIrvin:
I can’t tell you how many times in the last few weeks I’ve had my “liberal” friends tell me how terrible the e-mail scandal is. When I ask them to explain what exactly she did with her e-mail that was so bad, they can’t tell me. Then they pivot to talking about “perception.” I have started really reading them the riot act.
FlipYrWhig
@Matt McIrvin:
My hunch is that you’re right, and that Dadadadadadada has identified one of the prime drivers.
lollipopguild
@gvg: Many conservatives that I know simply stay away from anything-books-TV-movies that might cause them to question any of their beliefs. Everything must support the world they have created for themselves hence the success of Fox news,
Kay
@gene108:
Canvass in PA.
gogol's wife
Please get rid of the audio autoplay ads.
schrodinger's cat
@Matt McIrvin: Everyone of us has a choice, to stand up and fight or keep worrying and cower under the bed. I choose to stand up and fight. I don’t see what your nervous Nellie comments about Trump achieve.
dexter
I spend a lot of time lurking around here, but do not enjoy having music I did not ask for suddenly hit my ears. I would appreciate it if one of the powers that be would send me an email to tell me when you stop because I will not be back until then. Thanks.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Dadadadadadada: I would be wiling to bet that a whole lot of elected/hope-to-be-elected Republicans who tepidly endorse Trump will be voting for HRC in the booth where their more google-eyed constituents can’t see them, and maybe even more of those will vote Johnson
Major Major Major Major
@Joel: yeah, that’s the other thing. Sam Wang is far less impressed with Sam Wang than Nate Silver is with Nate Silver, and it’s reflected in their analyses.
Kay
I love the “what ifs’ on Twitter.
What if Hillary Clinton had 5 children by 3 different fathers? There would be think pieces galore, at the very least
Brachiator
Someone is not paying attention. The official GOP party platform embraces Trump’s plan to build a wall. The party and GOP supporters have signed on, and don’t care what Trump says.
I listened to a public radio interview with some Latino Trump supporters (there are some!). One man, Felix Viega, was actually a delegate for Trump. He actually supports Trump on immigration as the only politician willing to do something about the problem, not just talk about it. And let me quote him correctly, here.
“Donald Trump has all the money in the world. He’s got a beautiful wife and family. He’s got a lot of power. Why would he jeopardize all this unless his motives were pure?”
Bad news for Trump. Other Latino Republicans interviewed feel totally insulted by Trump, and said they will vote their conscience.
ETA: the Harry Potter support proves that JK Rowling really is a wizard. Conservative pearl clutchers need to confiscate those novels, which may really be influential instruction guides.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@gogol’s wife: I had that conversation with my mother last week. She’s a reliable vote for Clinton but pretty much a text book low-information voter. She reads (skims) the paper every day (dead tree), but when I try to take her into details she just waves her hands and says something like “These politicians, I just don’t know…”
FlipYrWhig
@gogol’s wife: IMHO there’s the “harmed national security” connotation (but that’s not the one lefties are partial to) and the “thinks the rules don’t apply to her” connotation. Personally I think the whole thing is idiotic.
Major Major Major Major
@lollipopguild: hence the regular lists of movies and books and TV shows and songs that they’ve deemed acceptably conservative. the corollary of course is that those which aren’t on the list must be avoided, possibly through legal means.
gogol's wife
@FlipYrWhig:
When I suggested to some people last night that it was our duty to say positive things about Hillary, they seemed astounded. But then they admitted I had a point. I intend to keep having this conversation.
Chris
Perhaps, but the more I see of Republican politicians (and voters), the 1%ers who fund them, the media and “intellectuals” who back them, et al, the more appreciation I have for Hollywood’s fondness of cartoonish villains powered by ridiculous egos and other intangible things – Bond villains, comic book villains, Kim Possible villains, you name it. A terrifying number of people are exactly that way in real life – petulant brats who never grew up and just happen to have lucked into (usually by birth) enough money and power to force the rest of us to endure the consequences of their personal issues and anxieties.
(For decades now, one of the biggest influences on our political system has been a dynasty of Kansas oilmen driven by a crusading hatred of the left… rooted in the fact that Josef Stalin refused to extend their daddy’s oil contracts with the Soviet Union. It’s more disappointingly mundane than whatever made Norman Osborne become the Green Goblin, but it’s just about as petty and inane. And the less said about George Bush’s daddy issues, Donald Trump’s narcissism complex, and Sarah Palin’s determination to become the Real Housewife From Fox News, the better).
When I was a kid, I used to roll my eyes at the scene where Kirk baits Khan into an obvious trap with a belittling comment about his “superior intellect.” Not anymore. I get it now. It’s “please proceed, Governor” in space.
gogol's wife
@gogol’s wife:
And we don’t have to be baldfaced liars about it, the way the other side does (see srv’s comment #85).
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Ana Navarro,, who is described by the media as a power player in FL and the GOP (Jeb Bush’s chief adviser on immigration issues, a featured player in McKay Coppins account of the battle between Rubio and Jeb! in FL) was strongly denouncing Trump’s speech on CNN last night.
Major Major Major Major
@srv: who?
rikyrah
Two Narcissistic Bullies Duking It Out
by Nancy LeTourneau
July 21, 2016 9:26 AM
If you read what I wrote yesterday about Ted Cruz’s long-term plans, his non-endorsement speech last night in Cleveland didn’t come as much of a surprise. He’s taking a big risk. But ultimately Cruz decided to go all-in on a bet he’s making about how this plays out. Dara Lind came up with a good analogy.
We’ll see how that works out for him. One of the reasons for the rise of Donald Trump is that the GOP has been leaderless ever since the Bush/Cheney administration ended in such a disaster. All of the so-called “establishment candidates” in this year’s primary simply embraced the same failed policies that got us there in the first place. In addition, they completely missed the fever that had been ignited among the Republican base in order to fuel the post-policy positioning of total obstruction. Trump didn’t offer a policy alternative. Instead, he fanned the flames of the fever. In many ways, the party remains leaderless and in his own imagination, Ted Cruz thinks he can fill that void.
Matt McIrvin
@srv: Scott Adams believes that gravity is a hoax.
FlipYrWhig
@srv: I thought the Romneys were the new Kennedys. Hey, maybe every group of Republican children can be equated to Kennedys by a process of wishful thinking!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Along those lines, I am not a fan of Kaine as Veep, mostly because I think some kind of excitement factor would be a boost to the ticket, but I am conscious of the fact that my first choice, Perez, may not be as good on TV and the stump (which still count) as he is on paper. So if Kaine is what we’re gonna get, here’s Clinton-skeptic, Bernista and VA native Krystal Ball:
Dadadadadadada
@lollipopguild: Quite right. I was raised super-religious, and access to certain things (TV, pop music that was less than 30 years old, movies rated higher than PG, anything at all that more than vaguely referenced sex, anything that cast my particular religion or religion in general in a not-fully-positive light, etc.) was simply not allowed. I’m quite sure that a whole lot of people from similar backgrounds live their whole lives without ever figuring out that their view of the world just fails to account for a huge chunk of reality.
jonas
@O. Felix Culpa: Is Cruz Snape, then?
Joel
@FlipYrWhig: They’re all Michael Kennedys.
burnspbesq
@Grumpy Code Monkey:
They did their job. Their job is not to inform the American people. Their job is to deliver advertising revenue.
burnspbesq
@gene108:
If you’re in NJ-5, volunteer locally. I think Garrett can be beaten this time.
Brachiator
@Aimai:
Wait. Are you suggesting that Eco was playing Dungeons and Dragons in his spare time? ;)
Major Major Major Major
@jonas: I saw a picture of Cruz as Snape one time during the primaries. I’m not googling it. You can look it up your damn self.
Matt McIrvin
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: To me the only downside of Kaine is that he’s yet another Senator (albeit one who isn’t going to have his replacement appointed by a Republican). This isn’t Jim Webb we’re talking about.
Dadadadadadada
@Brachiator: Do you not know that conservatives have been trying (sometimes successfully) to ban HP from school libraries, because it “teaches witchcraft”? It’s probably died down by now, but about ten years ago it was a really real thing.
Major Major Major Major
@Dadadadadadada: that was the other factor I could think of–the intersection of “parents think Harry Potter is witchcraft”, “didn’t read Harry Potter”, and “supports Trump” is probably pretty big.
boatboy_srq
@SiubhanDuinne: G&S were brilliant – if occasionally quaint bordering on racist/sexist by modern standards – when it came to characters’ names. Mikado, Pirates of Penance, HMS Pinafore (the show’s name itself a play on RN ship naming conventions) and Iolanthe are filled with similar character names.
rikyrah
Trump’s Speech: An Appeal to His Supporters’ Id
by Nancy LeTourneau
July 22, 2016 9:36 AM
Donald Trump’s speech last night had the fact-checkers geared up to overdrive. He threw out a lot of numbers and made a lot of claims. In summary, most of them turned out to be distortions and/or lies. You can check out the results at Politifact, Vox and the Washington Post. Overall, he proved Stephen Colbert to be a modern-day prophet by coining the word “Trumpism,” meaning, “If he doesn’t ever have to mean what he says, that means he can say anything.”
The other thing you might have noticed about Trump’s speech is that he didn’t offer any real solutions. Here are just a couple of examples from Peter Suderman:
So what it boils down to is that Trump provided a collection of lies to define a set of problems to which he offered no solutions. That would be the kind of analysis that comes from people who are reality-based. But Frank Rich identified what that misses about what was going on last night.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Matt McIrvin: or Mark “The Deficit!” Warner. One possible upside to a Kaine pick
I’ll defer to Virginians if Perriello isn’t as impressive as I remember him being as part of the anti-war class of ’06
Dadadadadadada
@srv: Considering the sketchy/flat-out criminal way that Joseph Kennedy made his fortune, and his obviously cynical plan to use his photogenic sons to take over the country…yeah, I’m seeing a parallel here. The key difference is that the Kennedys were actually rich, actually popular, and had political stances that weren’t odious. Also, if you can imagine any Trump handling the Cuban Missile Crisis as deftly/non-world-endingly as JFK, you have more imagination than I.
Elmo
@Matt McIrvin: The hatred for Clinton is jaw-dropping. I’m FB friends with a guy I went to high school with, and he’s as upset as anybody about Trump’s racism, ignorance, belligerence, etc. He’s made it very clear he would never ever vote for Trump. But he casually, almost as noting the obvious, calls Hillary Clinton a “murderer.” When I asked him, in all seriousness, what he was talking about, he said she’s been responsible for the deaths of many people investigating her crimes. As evidence, he sent me an article about the accidental death of the White House chef and about the murder of the manager of a local DC Starbucks.
It’s pathological.
boatboy_srq
Does anyone else get the sensation that the GOTea is populated not by Death Eaters but by the extended Dursley clan? Almost all the “build the wall” and “Those People” comments sound more like Petunia Dursley’s rants about Lily being a witch than anything else I can think of.
Dadadadadadada
@Chris: ROBERT MOSES, A TOTALLY REAL PERSON WHO IS JUST AS YOU DESCRIBE, LITERALLY BUILT HIMSELF A SECRET ISLAND LAIR.
Seriously, read The Power Broker if you haven’t already. I’m half convinced that a large part of the Bond-villain template is directly based on Moses.
Barb2
Off topic
Many here have referenced the behavior of cops after they shoot an African American. With the last police shooting of the mental health professional in Miami we see an unarmed victim of police violence, hand cuffed and then not given first aid by the cops.
This treating victims as non humans is fairly common. Article in Huff Po.
Feathers
@rikyrah: This. The Republicans can’t move on from the post Bush/Cheney collapse because the MSM won’t admit that there was a disaster. They are just as implicated in both the financial crisis and Iraq War as the Bush Administration.
That is one of the reasons Iraq is worse than Vietnam. The refusal to admit it was a complete fuckup, right from the start, means that we can’t begin the real work that needs to be done on cleaning up the mess. Foreign and domestic.
Brachiator
@rikyrah:
This kind of thing rarely works.
Go back and look at all the pundit BS about how Jeb Bush was saving himself for a 2016 presidential run. How did that work out?
And Cruz has created some intensely bad feelings among Texas delegates and others throughout the party. Even Boehner said of him, “Lucifer is back.” Cruz seems to have a knack for doing exactly the thing that will make him more hated by people in his own party. It is unlikely that he will ever be a national figure again.
FlipYrWhig
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Oh yeah, I forgot all about that guy! I liked him too.
MattF
Picture of Mike Pence watching Trump’s behavior at today’s news conference.
Chris
@Feathers:
I thought a lot of the story was really well done in reflecting the complexity of real life in these issues. The way there’s a whole spectrum of bigotry, ranging from prejudice against the Muggle-born (it’s widespread, but so is pushback against it and it’s usually not legally codified – the Muggle-borns still get to go to Hogwarts and enter the government) to prejudice against creatures like house-elves which are practically universal. The fact that the bigotry is allowed to touch even the heroes (Ron is rightly outraged by slurs like “Mudblood,” but thinks nothing of house-elf enslavement; even people as out-there as Hagrid pretty much shrug it off). The whole portrayal of the Death Eaters’ rise – in some ways they’re a revolutionary movement threatening all of society but in other ways they’re just all of society’s prejudices taken to their logical end and are also pretty well embedded in it. The way that affects the authorities’ response – the Ministry would rather obsess on mostly imaginary conspiracies among the weird and non-conforming parts of society (i.e. Dumbledore and his ilk) than acknowledge the far right movement rising right under their nose. Etc, etc, etc.
Brachiator
@Dadadadadadada:
The local bookstore here always has a banned books display. And the tradition of scapegoating fiction that deals with sorcery and witchcraft goes way back. There was even some high ranking Catholic Church official who tried to put the hex on the Potter novels.
Oddly enough, stuff like the Exorcist is OK for some of these folk. And a few of them buy into the “authenticity” of the Conjuring movies because they appear to endorse Christian doctrine.
satby
@Elmo: Yeah, a new Clinton death count meme is going around, repositioned with a swipe at Snopes as a Democratic organization, not a fact checking website.
Villago Delenda Est
I’m a Ravenclaw, myself, but we Ravenclaws stand with Hufflepuff and Gryffindor against Drumpf.
Chris
@Frankensteinbeck:
Yeah, that was the one thing about the book I wasn’t crazy about – the fact that Gryffindor and Slytherin are too easily synonymous with “Team Good” and “Team Evil,” and beyond that, the weirdness of having the Gryffindor jocks being defined as the opposite of Slytherin ambition. When they really could and possibly should have been complementary. In real life, it’s usually the Slytherins (politicians, corporate types) who give the order and the Gryffindors (cops, feds) who carry them out.
D58826
Some what OT but in today’s NYT there is a piece by the mayor of Bloomington Ind. and the problem the city has with ‘good guys and a gun’. He included a picture of a couple of said good guys in the 4th of July parade. Now I am not a gun expert but even I know that you don’t use a tri-pod mounted weapon for dear hunting or home protection. But he is a good guy. How fo I know that – well he is white
Brachiator
@gogol’s wife:
Rightly so. If I find the cult of personality surrounding Trump to be offensive, why would I sign up for one involving Hillary?
I think that Mrs Clinton has enough positive attributes that justify supporting her. But you cannot reasonably demand obedience to some official positive group think.
Matt McIrvin
@Chris: Reading the series, I wondered if some of that complexity arose accidentally, from Rowling not entirely realizing what she was doing in the earlier books, and then figuring it out. In “Goblet of Fire”, Hermione is mostly made a figure of ridicule for championing freedom for the house-elves when they don’t seem to want freedom, and there’s no indication that the author feels differently. By the later books in the series, it’s become much more nuanced. The house-elves really are in a terrible position as victims of abuse (even by the “good guys”), and Hermione turns out to have been basically right; where she was wrong was that she was just a victim of the wizard version of What These People Need Is A Honky feelings, casting herself as the savior without understanding what she was getting into.
boatboy_srq
@srv: That only works if Jacqueline Bouvier had been a centerfold and not a debutante from a respectable family.
There’s a real difference between “class” and “[being] classy.” The Trumps are definitely in the latter category.
boatboy_srq
@Matt McIrvin: Rowling read and followers but didn’t “get” the faerie story genre – at least at first. It’s also very clear that her first attempt or two were specifically targeted at the “young adult” reader. She grew quite a bit between each book.
Carl W
@Joel:
Silver didn’t have a model for the primaries.
Villago Delenda Est
@burnspbesq: THIS
Gin & Tonic
@Dadadadadadada:
Um, WTF?
Original Lee
@MattF: Isn’t holding your victory sign backhanded like that basically saying f**k you?
Matt McIrvin
@Carl W: Yeah, Silver was just being a pundit, talking from his gut against what every poll could have told him. Now he seems to be overcompensating by playing up Trump’s general-election chances, but to some extent this is what he does every cycle; his model usually seems to overstate uncertainties.
Chris
@Dadadadadadada:
I believe it. (Various Bond villains have been based on real life people, some more blatantly than others). Also, the reimagining of the Kingpin in the new Daredevil was based on Moses, I’m pretty sure. I’ve meant to read The Power Broker a few times, but I admit the size of the book has been a deterrent, especially since there are always other books to read.
(Shameless plug: the book I just finished, “The Badass Librarians of Timbuktu” is worth a look if you can get a copy. It’s mainly about librarians’ work saving ancient manuscripts from areas controlled by jihadists, but it also includes a fair amount of description of jihadism in the Sahara region – the origins in the Algerian civil war of the nineties, and the way it’s interacted with events like the Tuareg separatist insurgencies in Mali or more recently the fall of Qaddafi. It’s practically worth reading for those things alone).
Eric U.
@gogol’s wife: I had to install ad blockers for this site alone. Although the local newspaper has something that really make a mess out of things even with ad and cookie blocking on.
I wish people would realize that their ads are problematic and do things about it. This is in general, not just BJ. Newspaper sites are some of the worst. Somehow the video ad manages to turn the audio back on when it’s muted. That’s incredibly obnoxious. It better be paying a lot of money, but I doubt it. The blog might be almost top-5000 if not for that ad
catclub
@Brachiator: I would count “She has been attacked and vilified for 25 years and she is still standing and more popular than she was 25 years ago.” as saying something positive. Could you say that, rather than say nothing?
Dadadadadadada
@Gin & Tonic: The Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority (Moses’s main vehicle of power) headquarters was built into the Triborough Bridge (Moses’s biggest project to that date) toll plaza, on Randall’s Island, in such a way as to be invisible from the roadway, and since that roadway was the only access to the island, it was, if not totally secret, at least well-hidden. It was on an island, and it was his main base of operations for a decade or more.
It fits the definition of a secret island lair.
Bobby Thomson
@Carl W: he didn’t have a clue for the primaries. Warmed over CW.
Now, becaus he got burned so badly ignoring the polls, he thinks the problem is that Trump is just unpredictable.
Dadadadadadada
@Chris: Book-related suicide pact: I’ll read the librarians book if you read The Power Broker. It really is one of the most remarkable documents of the 20th century, and it explains an awful, awful lot not just about Moses himself (whom I’m guessing most Americans have never heard of; I basically never had until after I moved to NYC) but about how American society developed between the 20s and the 60s.
Robert Sneddon
@Dadadadadadada:
What, you mean threatening to start WWIII because his administration wouldn’t remove medium-range nuclear missiles from Turkey and Italy when the Soviets asked nicely? After the furore died down the American missiles were in fact removed but it was because they were effectively obsolete, replaced by submarine ballistic missiles and land-based missiles with intercontinental range.
JFK has been treated a lot better by US historians than he really deserves — it was his administration that ramped up the Vietnam war and there was the rather dubious appointment of his underqualified brother as Attorney General, just for starters.
D58826
@Matt McIrvin: Well I hope your right. What is disheartening is that the race is as close as it is. It will be interesting, after last night’s performance, if Trump gets a bounce or a dip (unprecedented I know). Are there that many Americans who can vote for a candidate who talks like that. I understand that people , i.e. reasonable GOOPERS, might not want to vote for Hillary as a positive affirmation that they agree with her but given the stakes voting against Trump (i.e. pulling the Hillary lever) seems like a reasonable thing to do.
I am assuming there are reasonable Republicans out there or are we looking for the equivalent of all those ‘good Germans’?.
Chris
@Matt McIrvin:
I think it’s pretty clear that Rowling definitely grew along with her books and probably figured out a lot of stuff as it went. I’m not sure whether or not house-elves fall under that. The first time we see them is Chamber of Secrets, and there’s no indication that we’re supposed to take it as anything other than straight-up slavery and horrifically wrong. Goblet of Fire is when it begins to be made more complex.
D58826
@Robert Sneddon: Hate to be harsh but JFK’s hallowed place in history was cemented by his assassination.
Dadadadadadada
@Chris: I mean business. I just reserved The Bad-Ass Librarians of Timbuktu at the library, so you’re on the clock now.
(Not really. But do read The Power Broker.)
Brachiator
@catclub:
I didn’t suggest that anyone say nothing. I said that there is no duty to say positive things. This is not North Korea and Clinton is not our Fearless Leader.
Speaking honestly about her best attributes and qualifications should get the job done. And people who insist on hating her are not going to be swayed by forced positivity.
Gin & Tonic
@Dadadadadadada: I have actually read Caro’s book (in fact, I have read all of his books), grew up in NY, and know all about Moses – in fact I’d even met him (although I was small then.) The siting of TBTA offices hardly fits your hyperventilation about Bondish secret lairs.
Dadadadadadada
@Robert Sneddon: The essential fact is that JFK in fact did not start WW3, despite significant pressure from older, “wiser” advisors. Would Trump show such restraint? I severely doubt it.
Dadadadadadada
@D58826: I have similar feelings about Lincoln. Full credit for winning the war, but even he couldn’t have gotten through Reconstruction fully intact.
Chris
@Dadadadadadada:
LOL! I mean, only read it if you’re into that. I enjoy reading about international relations/security stuff in general and the Middle East/North Africa stuff in general, so this was definitely up my alley (and I’d be lying if I said the IndianaJonesish vibe of saving ancient texts from jihadist movements wasn’t an additional selling point).
Didn’t just reserve The Power Broker, but it did get bumped up to the top of my list. I need to return some books to some libraries later today, so I’ll see if they have a copy.
JustRuss
@Brachiator: Christ. Because when your choices are a less than perfect candidate and a Monster From The Id, you might want to say some nice things about the non-monster candidate to counter all the right-wing BS that’s been floated about her for the last two decades. Note that “nice things” doesn’t have to mean ” resounding uncritical praise”.
Ben Cisco
@Chris:
As one who spent quite a bit of time watching with my grandniece, I understood that reference.
gene108
@burnspbesq:
NJ-3.
I don’t see MacArthur getting beat.
2014 was the best shot at flipping the seat, with Runyon retiring. MacArthur won by 10 points, even though the only reason he even qualifies for residence status NJ-3 is he has a beach house in Ocean County. He’s a North Jersey real estate developer.
Chris
@Dadadadadadada:
For me it’s as much the absence of Andrew Johnson as the presence of Abe Lincoln. I’m sure Lincoln wouldn’t have made everything all right, but whatever shape Reconstruction took, it probably would have gone less badly if it hadn’t been sabotaged right at the very start right from the top by a man who was basically a Confederate-minus-the-secession-part.
Chris
@Ben Cisco:
Did babysitting in high school. That’s my excuse. But I’d be lying if I said I didn’t enjoy it too.
Ben Cisco
@Chris: Also, this
was pure gold.
Dadadadadadada
@JustRuss: +1 for the Forbidden Planet reference.
Brachiator
@JustRuss:
Christ on a chew toy, how much more clear could I be? I reject the Twilight Zone “toss your ass in the cornfield” crap that we are required to say positive things about Clinton.
And what is this “less than perfect” candidate shit? I think that Clinton can do the job. I think that she is superior not only to Trump, but to all the Republicans who were stacked against her.
And I am far more interested in talking about what she might do tomorrow than in trying to come up with some unnecessary phony bullshit to offset old right wing bullshit.
I also don’t care about the “ooh, she may be hawkish” pearl clutching that even some of her supporters think is a problem.
From now until election day, I think that Clinton can stand up to an honest assessment. Empty headed cheerleading, whatever the motivation, is best left to high school.
Miss Bianca
@Feathers: Fascinating data about JK Rowling – just makes me respect her more.
Ben Cisco
@Chris: Same here.
Robert Sneddon
@Dadadadadadada: It should never have gotten to that point. JFK was the Man in Charge and the American missiles in Turkey and Italy pointed at Moscow were obsolescent with the new SSBN boats going on patrol and the Atlas missiles based in Montana replacing the land-based IRBMs in Europe. He fucked up in refusing to negotiate their removal and when the Soviets decided to install similar missiles in Cuba to put pressure on the administration he went ballistic (so to speak). This does not speak well of his general abilities as President.
I am straining to think of anything notable he did actually achieve before he was assassinated, other than the “Man on the Moon before the end of the decade” speech which probably would have been quietly forgotten if he hadn’t been sainted. It’s unlikely the Apollo project would have been funded and driven the way it was if he had served out his term(s) without incident.
Dadadadadadada
@Robert Sneddon: I mainly agree that JFK is overrated, but I don’t think that’s what CNN or whoever was going for when they speculated about the Trumps being the new Kennedys. For all of Joseph’s shady dealings, JFK and RFK were real men, overrated as they are due to the timing of their deaths. Ted grew into a straight-up boss, though he probably should have gone to jail for Chappaquiddick. The Trumps have all the shadiness and entitlement, with none of the charm, and I’d be very surprised if any of them ever accomplished anything near what any of the major Kennedys did. Donald’s only job ever was working with his dad; Donald’s kids all work for their dad. It’s like none of them could even get hired outside their immediate family.
Miss Bianca
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: : “the GOP in CO shot itself in the foot just a couple weeks ago”
Hmmm…How do you figure?
Miss Bianca
@srv: Is Scott Adams just too stupid and racist to realize that we’ve *had* “the new Kennedys” in the White House for the past eight years?
Oh, wait. Of course he is! Never mind.
cckids
@O. Felix Culpa:
Trump isn’t smart enough to be Voldemort. V was evil, but really good at what he did.
I’ve always thought that Trump would be the offspring if Gilderoy Lockhart & Belletrix Lestrange reproduced. Vain, stupid, mean and proud of it.
Paul in KY
@schrodinger’s cat: Movies got better as they went on, IMO.
Paul in KY
@BR: Make him continually answer uncomfortable questions about his business practices.
sukabi
@MattF: well that’s an “Are you fucking kidding me?!!?1!!?” look if there ever was one.
KS in MA
@Feathers: What a beautiful speech. Thanks for posting it!
The Lodger
@Feathers: Could Trump be Quirrel? I was always suspicious of that hairpiece myself.
daves09
@schrodinger’s cat: I couldn’t read the books; couldn’t watch the movies; for books about magic they aren’t very magical. But if they make people dislike Trump-YAY!!!!!