I know that the general in question was hardly what you’d call a political liberal, but I’ve just spent a happy while in a reverie on what would have happened if George Patton had ever gotten ten minutes with Donald Trump into a windowless, sound proofed room.
I get that the real Patton might have been a Flynn analogue, but after the McCain POW diss, the “I know more than the generals” declaration, and above all, today’s “I’ve sacrificed” bathos, I’m going to stick with the notion that he would have left the Cheetos-faced ferret-topped shitgibbon* breathing through his colon.
In which happy imagining, I give you this, perhaps the most comprehensive scenery mastication in the history of film:
More thread, y’all, open as a fireworks stand on July 3.
ETA: I do realize, as many commenters below have pointed out, that it is vanishingly unlikely that the real Patton would have had too much trouble with Trump. Though I do think the attack on a gold star family wouldn’t have sat well. But I’m just responding to the mash-up of Scott and Patton rolling around in my head as a way to lighten up the truly grim possibility that Comb Over Caligula might actually win.
Also — FTR: feeling rage at the simple meanness shown to the parents of a soldier who died in war != being pro-war.
*Just the most satisfying phrase to say out loud. Enunciate “shitgibbon” with exquisite clarity to get the full effect.
buenspbesq
After Gen. Allen’s speech on Thirsday, I’m not sure there’s enough of Trump’s ass left to rip him a new one.
Schlemazel Khan
Patton would have been on board with Drumpfs refusal to honor any one who had been captured.
RepubAnon
Mangled Apricot Hellbeast has a spot in my heart – if nothing else, great name for a cocktail, or a dessert.
Tom Levenson
@RepubAnon: A fine bit of invective, that.
amk
Does ‘asshole’ makes fywp reach for the couch?
eta: Ok, it doesn’t. Isn’t patton generally considered an asshole by the executive side?
lgerard
Don’t forget that the military training he received at that school for screwups was better then most soldiers and Marines get.
Major Major Major Major
You are correct.
maya
Drumpy was holding back. His oldest heir, Don Jr, got a serious boil on his ass while mailing out slicks for Trump University. He was posteriorously awarded the Orange Heart.
Schlemazel Khan
@amk:
Remember, it was Patton that used tanks against WWI veterans who came to peacefully protest in Washington DC. Yes, he was led by Pershing but he was only too happy to join in. He had no compunction when it came to slapping men who broke under combat condition & envisioned himself as some sort of superman with his pearl-handled .45s. He was Drumpf with a West Point Degree.
Felonius Monk
“Vacant orange nut-sac” does it for me.
dmsilev
@Schlemazel Khan: Nitpick: It was McArthur, not Pershing, who was in charge of the troops that attacked the Bonus Army. Speaking of megalomaniacal asshats….
redshirt
Even though the Democratic Party is now the Party of War and Patriotism and Gung-ho, I’d still like to note for the record I am anti-war, hate war, wish we could banish war, etc.
War is bad, m’kay?
Also voting for her.
Amir Khalid
Isn’t Patton out of uniform in that scene? I’m not aware that riding pants were part of a general’s uniform in WW II.
Peale
I’m really not all that bent out out of shape if the prima donna, emotionally unstable general would have been with or against trump. I’ve never thought of hi as on “my side” politically, so who cares.
Major Major Major Major
Say what you will about MacArthur, he had excellent fashion.
Chris
@Schlemazel Khan:
Wasn’t MacArthur involved in that, too?
japa21
@redshirt: Wanting there to never be war is, in and of itself, not being anti-war. It is being pro-peace but one can still recognize that there may be times it is the only recourse.
Schlemazel Khan
@dmsilev:
You are right, I was typing without thinking. Yes, a man that was a legend in his own mind.
Mnemosyne
I would just like to see George C. Scott take on Trump. Sadly, he’s been dead for years now.
Major Major Major Major
@redshirt: What @japa21: said.
maya
@Amir Khalid:
He was in the US Cavalry as many pre-WWII officers were. Those jodhpurs were cavalry tradition.
hitchhiker
Oh man. I just need Hillary to pull way ahead of him, like right now, in every single battleground state. If things stay wobbly I’m gonna need much better drugs than are currently available.
Schlemazel Khan
@redshirt:
Well, war seems to have become an acceptable fashion accessory for both parties at the moment. It is my fervent hope that this is only a fashion accessory for the Dems and it will pass quickly but I like the odds of Ms. Clinton not getting kids killed for no reason a lot better than the enraged circus peanut’s likelihood.
Baud
Speaking of McArthur, if Trump were President, there would be high risk that our senior military leaders will face the prospect of having to disobey a direct order from their commander in chief.
I can understand why Gen Allen is displeased with how close Trump is to the presidency.
D58826
NYT politicsal reporter is saying on Twitter that Trump is now forcing the GOP to support him or the family of an American soldier killed in action.
The response from Paul Ryan is he has made it clear that he rejects the Muslim ban. But he will continue to fund raise for Trump. I’m old enough to remember the questions about where were the GOOD Germans during the rise of Hitler. Well I’m not sure if that question has a definitive answer but it looks like we know where the ‘good’ Gop stands. And at this point the ‘silence’ of the Bushes, Romney and other is no longer enough. I realize for political expediency they will not endorse Hillary so as to retain a future in the party. Well with Trump there may not be a party to go back to.
Schlemazel Khan
@Amir Khalid:
He actually worn the stupid things. I’m sure it made him feel connected to some great tradition even though the US cavalry was never big on them.
Jeffro
@hitchhiker:
Check out some of the recent articles – I think the NYT has one up just today – about how narrow Trump’s path to 270 EVs actually is. The Clinton camp is already feeling pretty good about CO and VA and is shifting its focus to very winnable AZ and MO. It’s quite possible that with the “D Justice League” (Obama, Biden, Warren, etc) out there campaigning for her and helping with GOTV she will rack up a very nice landslide.
BUT
Better to ‘run scared’ all the way through 11/8! =)
Call your local party office and ask how you can help!!
Jeffro
@D58826: Ryan, McConnell, etc cannot bring themselves to realize – this is going to crack their party when he loses. They’re also never, NEVER, going to be able to wash off this Trump-stink they’re accumulating. I refuse to let them.
Baud
@hitchhiker: Early post convention polling is good. But I think Clinton’s strategy will be to try to maximize her lead in November.
D58826
@Baud: They aren’t going just for the win, they are going for the KILL!
amk
Wish the cowardly deadbeat had the guts run against the kenyan in 2012. He would have been drawn and quartered.
maya
@Baud: One of them could bring a suitcase bomb to war room meeting and leave it under the table.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@dmsilev:
McArthurMacArthur.;-)
Cheers,
Scott.
Baud
@maya: That never works.
Baud
@D58826: Right. Which means not peaking in August.
buenspbesq
For some reason, i have it in my head that if Gen. Allen were still on active duty he would really relish having gay and trans Marines on his staff. I think he’s heavily invested in the idea of the Corps reflecting the best of America.
hitchhiker
@Jeffro:
Already on that train — since I live in the bluest part of deep blue Seattle, it’s likely to be doing phone GOTV during the crunch. I just have to train myself to look away from polls.
patrick II
Open thread question. Some time ago Trump said he “contributed” 50 million dollars to his own campaign. It turned out he had loaned the money, not contributed, and was caught out by the press at which time he said he would be changing it from a loan to a contribution. Did that ever happen? Did anyone follow-up? Or is this just another matter of so many lies no time to follow them all?
redshirt
@D58826: FINISH HIM!!!
Jeffro
@hitchhiker:
Awesome! I hear you about polls…so much media interest in keeping this a horse race, when it’s likely to be an EV blowout (and even a big popular vote win in the end). BJ needs a poll-disregard support group! (maybe we already are)
lgerard
@patrick II:
He did send a letter to the FEC at the end of June forgiving the loan
Major Major Major Major
One of my BoB’ers on Facebook is trying to convince me that there is something wrong with patriotism.
maya
@Jeffro:
11/8? Donald will probably want to change it to 11/9. Tuesday’s are his masseuse days.
hellslittlestangel
@Jeffro: Clinton will win in a landslide, but we mustn’t be complacent: the goal in November is to take back the House.
Major Major Major Major
@maya: I can’t believe crooked Hillary and the lapdog media would schedule the election on masseuse day.
@Jeffro: ‘feeling quite good’ about CO? Last I saw, they yanked all their ads. That’s feeling GREAT!
sukabi
The Guardian has an article detailing drumpfs advisors connections to Russian oligarchs, one of them says that because Bill Clinton vacationed there while a Rhoads scholar that he’s the one with Russian ties.
ETA, Paul Manafort supposedly made off with millions of a Russian mobsters money… interesting read.
Villago Delenda Est
@Baud: She’s thinking downticket. She’s got an excellent chance to flip the Senate, and it’s no longer inconceivable that she might flip the House.
maya
@Major Major Major Major: Nor I. The sacrifices that he has had to endure to become our Orange Ozymandias.
amk
@sukabi:
I just hope hrc campaign has a plan for hitting the treasonous thug 24×7 for his russian mob connections till the election day.
MattF
@Villago Delenda Est: It’s quite possible that if the post-election R margin is only a couple of votes, then the Rs won’t be able to elect a Speaker. The R dead-enders in the House may well be able to convince themselves that ‘worse is better’.
Omnes Omnibus
@maya: Hey, I’ve heard that soulectomies are quite painful.
Eric U.
@Amir Khalid: Not sure at what rank, but the phrase, “generals can design their own uniforms” is stuck in my brain for some reason. Nowadays, it’s usually minor variations
MattF
@Omnes Omnibus: A soulostomy, though, is just disgusting.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@lgerard: The summaries for June for Clinton and Trump are a study in contrasts.
E.g. Donnie claims to have raised $21.9M in June ($7.8M itemized from individuals) while Hillary raised $23.8M ($17.8M itemized from individuals). Why the huge difference in the proportion that was itemized? Is there something fishy about Donnie’s contributions?
Donnie had $20.2M cash on hand while Hillary had $44.4M at the end of the month. Sad!
Cheers,
Scott.
D58826
Apparantly ‘old little hands’ has expanded on his comments to the Khan family. He would tell them about the problems we are having with Islamic terrorism. And reading the comments on that twitter item are disgusting. They are in total agreement with Trump. So much for any ‘good Germans’ in the GOP.
MattF
@D58826: I guess his staff has managed to hog-tie him and take away his phone. But it won’t last.
Roger Moore
@Schlemazel Khan:
They’re ivory. Only a pimp from a cheap New Orleans whorehouse would carry a pearl-handled pistol.
Major Major Major Major
@Roger Moore:
scav
@D58826:
Paul knows that like NATO allies, dead American soldiers and their families, that Trump will only have their backs if he personally judges them to still be contributing to his satisfaction. Gotta feed the beast.
D58826
@efgoldman: True but he occupies a position of well respected elder statesman for the country and within the party. His coming out and saying that he will vote for Hillary, which isn’t really the same as an endorsement of her policies, would have a powerful impact on GOPer’s torn between voting for Trump or Hillary. For a family that prides itself on service to country and honor it is the right and honorable thing to do.
MattF
@Roger Moore: One learns something new every day.
SiubhanDuinne
@maya:
? Very nice indeed. ?
jl
@D58826: One hope that we have going for us is that Drumpf is so delusional he’ll think he is on a roll when he is actually digging a deeper hole.
His first criticism of the Khan’s was that the wife was subservient. A minute of internet search would refute that. She’s given interviews, spoken for herself, husband has made it clear that it is equal relationship. She certainly talks like it is an equal relationship. She didn’t feel comfortable speaking to the convention, so she didn’t. But husband says she is emotionally stronger, and he could not have spoken if she had not been at his side.
All the babble I’ve read or heard from Drumpf in the news today is stupid empty nonsense. But in sound bite I heard, it seems like he is swaggering like he thinks he is hitting it out of the park. Please proceed, you vicious dingbat.
Face
@hellslittlestangel: You can say this, but current polling (yeah yeah I know) doesnt bear this out. Nate Silver (yeah yeah I know) has given the edge to Don Dollar.
Tom Levenson
@D58826: Romney’s doubling down on the useful idiot choice: not voting for either Trump or Clinton.
Tom Levenson
@Face: Sam Wang not so much, but yeah — it’s way too early to assume this is safe.
lgerard
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet:
I think this may be because trump received substantial contributions from events that were held in conjunction with the RNC, and they just break off a piece for him. Not sure though. I would not put much faith in any numbers trump shares, ever.
I think Hilary also has some of those types of contributions, but she shows them as “transfers from another committee” in her reports. trump is probably doing it wrong.
scav
For the growing theme: Extremism thrives because of cowardly collaborators (NB: The Guard, so last bit wanders across the pond). Still.
Villago Delenda Est
@MattF: The prep for it is brutal. The procedure, with proper sedation, is tolerable.
redshirt
@Tom Levenson: It’s entirely reasonable to assume this election is safe. All predictors indicate a huge Democratic win.
Let’s work with that. Increase that?
Villago Delenda Est
@redshirt: It’s not safe until every contested seat in the Senate goes D and the entire House is D.
RaflW
Donald Trump has now fabulized a letter from the NFL. Deadspin isn’t pulling any punches:
NFL Says Donald Trump Is Full Of Shit; League Never Sent Him Letter About Debate Schedule
gogol's wife
@Jeffro:
I love all your comments.
SiubhanDuinne
@efgoldman:
Bush Sr caused me to not despise him quite as much as I do the rest of his family, 20+ years ago, when he resigned his Life Membership in the NRA on principled grounds. I’d like to see him very publicly renounce the party he served in so many capacities. You’re right, he has (in Bubba’s poignant phrase) “more yesterdays than tomorrows,” so in one sense it would be a fairly empty gesture. But I would hope that he still commands enough respect among party regulars that he might inspire others to quit the GOP.
JudyinSD
People are having fun on Twitter with #TrumpSacrificies
redshirt
@Villago Delenda Est: Agreed. Every single seat must be contested at full power.
gogol's wife
@D58826:
Oh, right, they don’t know anything about the problems we are having with terrorism.
Schlemazel Khan
@Jeffro:
You give the press and the GOP too much credit. On November 9th we will learn that Drumpf was never really a Republican and he only was fooling the poor abused party. The press will forgive them and start to smear President Clinton as the GOP House cranks up the investigation machine & provides full employment for Congressional aides involved in trying to find something to pin on her.
RaflW
@Face: I popped over to 538, and their model has had Trump closing in on Clinton in MN. She still has the lead, but it has plummeted in the past two weeks.
Minnesota. The state that voted Trump third in the primary. The only state to vote Dem in 1984. Trump is gaining on her! Oh noes!
hovercraft
@D58826:
These people are more despicable than Trump because they know better, Trump has spent decades with toadies blowing smoke up his ass by toadies that tell him his every utterance is brilliant. Trump will come back by Monday saying that he never compared creating jobs to losing a son. Republicans are allowed to say ridiculous shit and they get away with it (remember when Mitt said his sons had sacrificed for their country by working on their fathers campaign). So as disgusting as this is he will not pay a big price for this. If a democrat says something slightly off, they are crucified but rethugs are given a lot of leeway because they are ‘patriots’.
redshirt
@RaflW: I’d laugh along, but then I remember that neighbor Wisconsin has been conquered and poisoned. How long till Minnesota falls prey?
D58826
@Tom Levenson: He is more than a useful idiot. Whither Trump wins or loses, the GOP owns Trumpism. They own the damage that is being done to the political system, civil discourse and America’s reputation around the world. They own Trump appearing in Daesh recruitment videos. If a terrorist wanna-be is influenced by one of those videos to act then they own that also.
This really is different than the good Germans of the 1930’s. Opposing Hitler was worth your life. What is Mittens sacrificing/risking by publically saying he will vote for Hillary? Like Trump – nothing.
By equating Hillary with Trumpism they are saying that Hillary and the democrats are enemies of the America. But I guess that is to be expected from old 47% Mittens
gogol's wife
@Schlemazel Khan:
But History Has Its Eyes on Them
scav
@RaflW: The NFL. Can’t wait for the calls for immediate boycott.
SiubhanDuinne
@lgerard:
Say it ain’t so!!
patrick II
@lgerard:
Thanks.
MazeDancer
Have to thank Tom for tweeting the link to tonight’s Pittsburgh rally on the Clinton Kaine bus tour.
Headliners not there yet. But saw a bit of Hillary on the stump earlier. She’s very good.
redshirt
@scav: The NFL gets it’s replays wrong.
Makes you think……
The Ancient Randonnuer
gogol's wife
@The Ancient Randonnuer:
Yes, that’s really good, I’ve bookmarked it. I love the entry on “Once to Every Man and Country.”
redshirt
A Gay Dan
gogol's wife
@gogol’s wife:
I mean “Once to Every Man and Nation.” Can’t edit on BJ any more since the upgrade.
ThresherK (GPad)
@RaflW: As long as he doesn’t.do for the CFL what he did for the USFL. The NFL has too many big-ego owners with more sense than Trump to be in danger.
rikyrah
@Baud:
That’s why General Allen and others were there..they were sending up the bat signal…
Our country is distinct in that the ELECTED President is the Commander-in-Chief of the military.
What does the military – the people who have spent their professional lives, learning to navigate in the geopolitical waters that we have, imperfect though they may be – do when they come upon a President of the United States that is absolutely insane?
What would we want them to do?
Doug R
@redshirt: Al Franken won’t let it happen.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@efgoldman: O-man’s given his last SOTU.
RaflW
@redshirt: I won’t say never (I mean, Mme Bachmann was from here fergawdssake), but we aren’t quite as drunk or racist as WI.
Jay
Officers are responsible for buying their own uniforms with a set of guidelines as to how they should look. For that reason, uniform allowances are always a contentious point. I didn’t see that the allowance went up with rank, however the higher the rank, the more likely the uniform is custom tailored.
No matter how long we’ve supposed to have been a meritocracy, for better or worse the military still has that “officers are from the privileged classes” attitude.
hovercraft
@Jeffro:
Chuck Todd was saying yesterday that at this point without Florida, which looks very tough with the large latino population, which means that in order for him to win he has to sweep the midwest states, WI, OH, MI, IA, PA, and that along with the second district of Maine would get him to 271. The only problem with that narrow path which at this point is the only viable one, is that he has not led in a single poll in MI, WI or PA except that one Q poll in PA. So he said that basically if Trump cannot pull ahead or at least even in the polls in those three states by the September, there is no race, there is no path. Winning IA, OH, and NH are meaningless without those other three, and oh by the way that also assumes that he wins Nevada. So as much as the media wants to promote the horse race, Chucky for some reason decided to deliver a reality check.
The Ancient Randonnuer
@gogol’s wife: Yes, it really does hit home this election cycle. We are indeed at one of those pivotal moments in our nations story. We are witnessing just how fragile an experiment this truly is.
Roger Moore
@Tom Levenson:
From a Republican stalwart, I’ll take that. In fact, I’d be really happy if plenty of Republicans just stayed home in November to protest their terrible presidential nominee.
redshirt
@RaflW: I worry for MN
redshirt
@Doug R: You can’t deny you’re getting more extreme.
Cat48
@D58826:
Romney isn’t quiet, he just said.yesterday that Clinton was bad candidate. He thinks Trump might win. @TPM
Gravenstone
@Major Major Major Major: Patriotism? Nothing inherently wrong there. Patriotism run rampant and given over to blind jingoism and nationalist fervor? That’s where the train leaves the track.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
George Takei speaking in Spanish on the importance of voting to defeat Trump (4:30)
(via France24 TV news channel)
Cheers,
Scott.
RaflW
@redshirt: We’ve reelected Franken and Dayton. I know we’re not solid blue (and we lost the MN Senate last cycle but Minnesotans still kinda like old-school divided gov’t), but we are not really all that purple.
Tom Levenson
@redshirt: I don’t believe that’s true. #NotAllPredictors. More seriously — Nate Silver may well be wrong; but he’s showing a very tight race now. State by state polls show a much stronger picture for Clinton, but it’s hardly bulletproof. Truly lock down PA and confirm that MI, WI and MN are still as solid Dem as they’ve been in recent presidential years (though not, as we know to our sorrow at the state level), and then, yeah. And obviously if when FL and/or OH move solidly towards Clinton then you (I) can exhale.
But as that NYTimes article notes, there is a still-unpredictable proposition being tested. While the reportesr write
They also note that
IOW: Trump has a very hard electoral college lift. But he has access to voters through free media that no one before him has, and he has some themes that really work for certain voters, including some who may have had a history of voting Democrat in certain key states. May not happen; probably won’t. But I don’t think that it’s 90-10 yet for the good guys, and it may not yet be 60-40.
Or maybe I’m just on the fainting couch and I shouldn’t be. But I’m going to assume it’s a knife edge until I have a much longer series of data that suggests it’s not.
/Rant-Panic over.
The Fat Kate Middleton
I’ve worked in so many elections since I registered as a Democrat in 1970 – especially including the election of 2012. I can’t express how much I want to work this election, especially for the down ballot elections – and how frustrated I am that my back doesn’t make that possible. I’ve had out-of-state volunteers lodge at my house during the election season before – may have to do it again.
Villago Delenda Est
Jay @ 100: Officers get a clothing allowance ONCE. When they’re commissioned. After that…they’re totally on their own as far as the uniform is concerned. Comes out of their base pay.
Enlisted soldiers get monthly uniform allowance to maintain their uniforms.
hovercraft
@lgerard:
And you know they had to hold his hand over the letter to get him to sign that letter, and then he cried like a baby. No wonder he hates the media, they cost him a lot of money. God dammit he was planning to quietly repay himself at the end of all this.
redshirt
Right.
hovercraft
@Major Major Major Major:
Well duh, it’s pro war, automatically.
Baud
@Tom Levenson: Last probability estimate I saw said 70-30. That was before our convention.
Dadadadadadada
tl;dr: Chill. Clinton’s got this.
Some numbers to settle the angst: 19 states have gone for every Democrat since 1992. Those states are: Oregon, Washington, California, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, Maine and Hawaii. I think it’s safe to conclude that Clinton will win them all with little trouble, though CNN et al keep telling us that PA and the upper Midwest are lead-pipe locks for the Angry Circus Peanut.
Between the 19 of them, they account for 245 electoral votes. Let’s be conservative and say that WI and IA are in play, so Clinton has a “floor” of 229 EVs. That means she would need 41 additional EVs from the states that are in play this year.
10 states are considered “in play” in this election: Wisconsin and Iowa (which appear on the above list of solid blue states, and which I’m not worried about), Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.
Those 10 states account for 120 EVs. Clinton would need to win only 41 of those 120. If she wins WI and IA (as every Democrat since 1992 has), Florida alone puts her over the top; she could lose NH, NV, CO, MO, OH, VA and NC and still win the election.
Of the 10 doubtful states, Obama won Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, and New Hampshire in both his campaigns. He won North Carolina in 2008. The only state of the 10 that never went to Obama is Missouri.
Thus we see that the deck is heavily stacked in favor of Clinton this time around, especially when you consider that Ohio’s Republican governor refused to appear at the RNC or endorse Il Douche, that Trump doesn’t appear to have any kind of ground game in any of the states in question (or even any apparent understanding of what a ground game is), that NC and WI just lost court battles over their vote-suppression laws, that a very popular Virginian is on Clinton’s ticket, that the two candidates have recently been pretty much even in gooper strongholds like Georgia, Mississippi and Utah, and that the Clinton camp has essentially declared victory and withdrawn from Colorado already.
Victory for Clinton seems almost assured; I’m personally rooting for her to win all 10 battlegrounds (a reachable goal, I think) as well as 4 or 5 “red” states. (Utah!)
Obama 2008 won 358 EVs; given all of the above, I think Mrs. Clinton might get 375 or more.
West of the Rockies (been a while)
@maya:
Fabulous connection! Trumpmondias.
redshirt
@hovercraft: Duh?
Dadadadadadada
@SiubhanDuinne: I think the GOP was done with HW Bush the moment he lost the White House to that upstart, what’s his name, Bill something…
Villago Delenda Est
@Dadadadadadada: “The Usurper”
lgerard
@hovercraft:
I’ve read news reports about the letter. I have seen copies of the letter online. I haven’t seen any confirmation from the FEC that they have received the letter however, With someone like trump, that would be the only proof I would accept.
It is amazing that no one can seem to find any evidence of trump ever making any charitable contributions of any kind.
In the aftermath of 9/11, when other celebrities were all making donations, trump managed to turn the situation into a profitable event..
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@Baud: Sam Wang at the PEC says Hillary has a 65% to 80% chance of winning (depending on the model), 320:218 EC votes, with a 50:50 Senate – he doesn’t update those numbers very often, so I think they’re a floor.
But I want it to be a blowout that put’s Reagan’s 1984 win in 2nd place. No, I’m not greedy! ;-)
Cheers,
Scott.
Tom Levenson
@Baud: Nate’s will move in our direction w. post – convention polls, but he’s at 50.x-49.x as of this aft.
debbie
@Mnemosyne:
“I’m not saying we won’t get our hair mussed…”
Tom Levenson
@Dadadadadadada: Not true: it’s 18, with 242 electoral votes (I think you’ve got Iowa wrong –and while I won’t be surprised to see us get Iowa, it’s a more Trump-friendly demographic than many.)
I do think a couple of states, at least, that aren’t on that list are safe, most obviously New Mexico (all of 5 EV). I’d be surprised to lose Nevada, given Harry Reid’s personal attn., and the growing Latino share of the vote there, but it’s a definitely still a swing state. Not sure what to make of Colorado, though the campaign certainly thinks it’s in the bag, similarly VA.
Anyway, I’m cautiously optimistic. Far from ready to say She’s Got This and take a nap.
Baud
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet: I want the same thing. If it’s close, even if Hillary wins, I may consider Canada.
Baud
@Tom Levenson: I don’t care for Nate since I started reading his awful book.
hovercraft
@Major Major Major Major:
Chuck Todd had a moment of lucidity yesterday. He pointed out that FL is looking very tough for Trump, even though it is his second home, without it he has to sweep the mid-west. He needs to win PA, MI, WI, IA, and even with that he would also need to win NH, NC, and NV. Out of those he has so far only been competitive in NH, IA and PA, and in PA, other than the Q poll in PA even that has not been very competitive. Never mind that NV seems like a stretch given the demographics. Sweeping these states plus one congressional district would give him 271 electoral votes. Chuck’s bottom line was that if Trump cannot pull ahead or at the very least even in MI and WI by September, there will be no viable path to victory for him. So come on you cheeseheads and wolverines, America and the world are counting on you.
Jeffro
@gogol’s wife: High praise indeed – thank you! Let’s all be happy warriors for the next 100 days, shall we? =)
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@lgerard: It’s in one of the filings at the FEC site (one of the text links with about 30 characters on the page). It’s just one sentence saying that the loans were a gift.
(I can’t find the link at the moment.)
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jeffro
@JudyinSD:
As well they should – if you think about it, it’s at least as good as the Romney “47%” remark.
Let’s see if we can get HRC to add #IllBeThere to her tweets, to really pound it home that Trump’s a coward when he inevitably bows out of the debates. She won’t back down – why is he running?
FlipYrWhig
@Tom Levenson: I don’t understand how Trump has any greater appeal to disgruntled working class Fuck All Y’alls than Sarah Palin did. I have to think that all of those people are already Republicans, so there’s no net gain from running Trump, and then they lose some of the old school Scowcroft/Powell types besides. The only thing I can see as a problem is leakage on the left from people who liked Obama but think Hillary is a warmongering neoliberal.
Hal
Is this race, at this point in time, unusually close, or is the expectation that because it’s Trump, Hillary should be 10 points ahead? If it’s the former then I might start to worry, but if it’s the latter, I’ll give it a couple of weeks before I panic.
Major Major Major Major
@Gravenstone: @hovercraft: it’s funny, though, he really hates the TPP and supports Bernie’s protectionism because it’s safer for American workers.
Er, not that there’s inherently anything noble about American workers.
Being a BoB’er must be hard. So many conflicting ideas to hold!
schrodinger's cat
Trump is an awful candidate, half of his party despises him. There is no reason to panic. Now we roll up our sleeves work hard to consign Agent Orange to the dustbin of history.
Doug R
@FlipYrWhig: What’s a neoliberal?
mike in dc
Actual billionaire Mark Cuban warmed up the crowd in Pittsburgh for Hillary Clinton. Actually called Trump a “jagoff”. That will get an angry tweet, I’m sure.
schrodinger's cat
@Major Major Major Major: Being proud of your country/heritage etc is fine so long as it does not involve denigrating others.
Jeffro
@Schlemazel Khan:
Oh, I know come Nov 9th he won’t ever have been a Republican…just a vulgar Dem in GOP clothing. But we’ll have the Senate, possibly the House, and the green light to start filling SCOTUS vacancies. Meanwhile, the bloodletting on the GOP side is going to be In. Tense. Trump’s base will never forgive the Establishment for their half-hearted support of Trump…heck, Trump himself is going to want to purge the party, while people like Cruz try to do the same to Trumpkins. It’ll be AWESOME
I have no doubt that HRC can ride out any silly investigations (assuming the GOP keeps the House to begin with).
ding
A little Pittsburghese Mark Cuban just called Trump a JAGOFFf at Hillary’s rally in Pittsburgh
daverave
@Baud:
I’ve only seen the poll from RABA that showed a ten point bounce for Clinton. I found this quote from RABA, uh, interesting:
“Hillary Clinton enjoyed a bounce this week, but can she sustain it?” said Tim Albrecht, a Republican partner with RABA Research. “All of the speakers at her convention this week have day jobs* and cannot devote all of their time helping to prop her up on the campaign trail. It remains to be seen if her support is fleeting, or if it is a forecast of things to come.”
*As opposed to the Trump campaign staff that is made up primarily of his family and other sycophants that want in on the grift.
Baud
@Doug R: No one knows.
FlipYrWhig
@schrodinger’s cat: What I keep coming back to is this: if Republicans really thought Trump had a viable chance, they wouldn’t be trying so hard to distance themselves from him. They’re ruthless. They don’t have shame. They just want to win. If they thought Trump was a winner, they’d be right by his side. They’re not. Like Sherlock Holmes realized, sometimes the key evidence is the dog that ISN’T barking.
p.a.
@redshirt: well now that DWS is out of the pic at least we can go after her Florida Repub buddies.
Lizzy L
Thinking about the “good” Germans who claimed “We didn’t know” — I have a picture in my mind of Paul Ryan pulling the shutters on the house windows and turning up the volume knob on the record player so as to mask the noise of the trains on their way to the camps.
He is a good German. Fucking Republicans. Unless they publicly disavow Trump, they all are. I wish there were a way to make them own it.
Bokonon
@hellslittlestangel: I think this election is going to be a lot closer than people think. The Democrats and all allied anti-Trump forces need to aim beyond the polls. Far beyond.
And never discount the possibility of voting fraud. Remember what happened in Ohio in 2004. Or more recently in Kansas (with the sudden rush of last-minute ballots supporting Governor Brownback that seemed to come from nowhere, and conflicted with all the exit polling).
Those of us who oppose Trump need a margin of support going into election day that can’t be overcome with caging, eligibility challenges, long poll lines and shutdowns, or outright electronic ballot flipping. A margin that makes it too difficult to cheat.
FlipYrWhig
@Doug R: It’s a way to say “I don’t like Hillary Clinton” but sound intellectual about it.
lgerard
Please note that so far none of America’s oligarchs have stepped up to support trump to any great degree
SAD!
Jeffro
@Cat48:
And again, in a sane world, it would be pointed out to Romney and all these other pearl-clutchers: these are the choices. This problem is easily solvable (since your party couldn’t seem to solve it in the primaries). Vote. Clinton. If you weren’t so besotted with 3 decades’ worth of your own slimy anti-HRC propaganda, you’d see you’re electing a pretty moderate game-manager of a Democrat AND CAN STILL reasonably say you’re holding on to your principles. Support Trump in any way and you forfeit that not only in regards to whatever comes from a Trump administration, but to how history will view you.
Jeffro
@Tom Levenson: Trump is going to lose Florida, and therefore, the election.
Major Major Major Major
@schrodinger’s cat: yes, and he’s saying there’s something inherently wrong with the former.
Jeffro
@The Fat Kate Middleton:
By all means please do – and you can also sign up to make GOTV calls from anywhere, to anywhere. You can also donate $$ and write op-eds/letters to the editor.
hovercraft
@Face:
Nate said his model is much more volatile than others because he gives more weight to individual polls, so the convention bump swung the model a lot, which also means that any bounce she gets will be reflected in his model faster than in any of the others.
Bokonon
@schrodinger’s cat: You know, half of the GOP may despise Trump, but I only know a few GOP members that aren’t falling in line and planning to vote for him anyway. They are working themselves into a truly epic frenzy of anti-Hillary anger … to give themselves permission to go ahead and vote for Trump (as a way to keep her out of office).
It scares the hell out of me to watch them doing this. You can’t reason with them, and can’t talk with them.
JPL
@mike in dc: Trump is going to “hit him with his verbal”.
FlipYrWhig
@hovercraft: That sounds like one of those college football models that weights recent victories more highly so that you can get a sense of who’s playing best right now. But the thing is, there’s only one game and it’s still 3 months away. Seems like an odd way to model an election.
Matt McIrvin
@Schlemazel Khan: I have a possibly vain hope that Mr. Obama will not fade into the West but will continue to give President Clinton pieces of his mind concerning the whole “don’t do stupid shit” theory of international relations, particularly as regards Syria.
But even if one regards Hillary Clinton as a fanged bloodbeast, it’s hard to believe that the guy who wants to tear up the Iran nuclear agreement on day one and proudly brags about his love of torture is the true peace candidate, and it’s utterly bizarre that there are people who believe this.
Baud
@Bokonon: Some folks have to make up the 27%.
Jeffro
@FlipYrWhig:
I don’t think he has more appeal than Palin did, but now “Palin”s at the top of the ticket. This is why they’re losing college-educated whites faster than they’re gaining non-college educated whites. WHICH REMINDS ME…on a side note…Steve Kornacki, who I normally don’t care too much about one way or another, was bloviating about the college/non-college whites thing as a general ‘economic class’ issue (i.e., as if Clinton had a deficit with ALL working folks). She doesn’t. It is a white thing that’s not even limited to class.
An earlier thread was kicking this around and I mentioned that Trump’s strongest support is from white voters who are not even particularly that badly off, w/ the question being, “Why are they buying into this view of an America that’s crumbling all around them?” I attribute 99% of that to the Fox News effect…that’s all they see, hear, and discuss (BREAKING NEWS!!)…and so they think this is reality.
FlipYrWhig
@Bokonon: Are rank and file Republicans ever NOT like that, though, in all elections against all Democratic opponents? I just don’t see that the reaction to Trump or Clinton is somehow unique.
Major Major Major Major
@FlipYrWhig: Nate has three models. The media tends to focus on the “Now-Cast” though. Which is funny, because it’s basically a polling average. But they get to report it as a “Nate Silver says Trump is* winning!”
M31
@maya:
I met a traveler from an antique land
Who said: “Two small and shrunken hands of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, an orange visage lies, whose frown,
And Chinese cap, and pout of petulant command,
Tell that its sculptor well those tantrums read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The wig that mocked them and the heart that fed:
And on the pedestal these words appear:
‘My name is Trumpiemandias, Yuge of Yuge!:
Look on my works, believe me!, and my hair!’
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The bankrupt casino parking lot
Of cracked and empty asphalt stretches far away.”
Schlemazel Khan
@Roger Moore:
In fact he wore a pair of Colt .45 revolvers through most of the war. He gave one to some Hollywood guy & then started carrying a .357
D58826
@hovercraft: Remember Chuck was the Nate Silver numbers guy a couple of cycles back. So doing the number thing is is area of expertise.
Trentrunner
@Jeffro: GOPers refusal to say they would vote for Hillary instead of Trump is the same kind of obstructionist mindset that culminated in Trump.
Wasn’t so long ago a wide swath of American voters could vote for either a Dem on GOPer, depending on the candidate. (You don’t go from Carter win in 76 to Reagan landslide in 80 without significant switching.)
redshirt
@efgoldman: What?
M31
@maya:
I met a traveler from an antique land
Who said: “Two small and shrunken hands of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, an orange visage lies, whose frown,
And Chinese cap, and pout of petulant command,
Tell that its sculptor well those tantrums read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The wig that mocked them and the heart that fed:
And on the pedestal these words appear:
‘My name is Trumpiemandias, Yuge of Yuge!:
Look on my works, believe me!, and my hair!’
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The bankrupt cas1n0 parking lot
Of cracked and empty asphalt stretches far away.”
Schlemazel Khan
was in the process of posting the above when I discovered that the basement drain was backing up. Spent the last hour trying to sop up water & am waiting for the drain guy
Major Major Major Major
@FlipYrWhig: in 2008 there was at least a veneer of not thinking Obama was Saran.
M31
lol it got sent to moderation first because of the C word
but you can’t have Trumpiemandias without the C word
Trentrunner
@Matt McIrvin: Clinton already said in an interview that she will be relying on Obama for advice if she’s elected.
Also, ‘twould be stupid not to. She’s a listener, after all.
rikyrah
@mike in dc:
I bet he won’t. He doesn’t clap back at Cuban.
Major Major Major Major
@M31: very nice. Sent it to my parents.
Feathers
I mentioned my Army grandfather’s fanboying of General Patton in the previous thread. Watching the clip, I have to wonder, because my grandfather was stateside until after the war. Important in today’s context to note that he later also enthusiastically supported George Wallace. After he retired, he lived in Laurel, MD, and was at the rally where Wallace was shot. (To the mortification of his wife and daughters, I only learned about this years after he passed.)
About the horses – they stuck around for quite a time. My mother said that growing up, the horses were her favorite part of the Army base. She said it was a sad, sad day at Ft. Meade when the Army shipped out the last of the horses, after pitched bureaucratic warfare. Funny to think of the NSA as being built on the Army’s old polo fields. Even after the Army shut down their polo program, the games continued on the Mall, at least through the seventies. I loved horses and we spent many Sundays there. If the Coen brothers are reading this, they really should make a movie about the Army’s battle for the polo ponies.
Schlemazel Khan
@Matt McIrvin:
BHO has not exactly a peacenik. That is one of the complains from the bernie folks. It is a matter of degrees and there is no doubt that there is going to be less blood shed under Clinton than Drumpf
Matt McIrvin
@Tom Levenson: If I recall correctly, Trump can win without NC if he wins PA, OH, FL, IA and NV (and IA and NV look Trumpier than NC right now). It is literally a 270-electoral-vote win, no margin at all, though he could get a few more by flipping NH or Maine-2nd district.
All these states are theoretically gettable, but it’s an unlikely scenario simply because he needs them all. If he loses even one of PA, OH or FL, it’s almost impossible for him to win. And he’s not looking good in Pennsylvania right now.
FlipYrWhig
@Major Major Major Major: Seemed pretty satanic to me, complete with a supporter saying “God damn America.” Since Atwater ran the Bush ’88 show, the Dem has always been an un-American apocalypse in the making.
Jeffro
@Bokonon:
Don’t waste your time on it. There will be a few Rs here and there willing to put principle above party – a few, but a few’s all we need. Go “high” as MO said and talk with them and whatever independent voters might be willing to consider the choice they have in front of them. And then GOTV like all heck in November!
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Schlemazel Khan: I had to clean out my kitchen sink drain last night, fun times.
Schlemazel Khan
@Feathers:
I happened to have a brief chat with a 3rd Armor vet from WWII, he was on a plane returning from a reunion of the guys. He was much less enthralled with the general than Hollywood or your grandpa.
hitchhiker
@Cat48:
Actually TPM chose to run a story today about an interview R-Money gave a month ago. Before Comey, before the conventions. Someone should ask him if he still thinks she’s a terrible candidate today.
He’d know, of course. I also read that as Mitt’s subtle way of saying that he lost because he had to run against a really good candidate. Not his fault at all.
Schlemazel Khan
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Yup, damn Romans & their plumbing!!
I’m joining the Peoples Front of Judea!
jl
Drumpf now saying making lots of money and hiring people are great sacrificies.
Khizr Khan says dying for your country, sending someone you know and love off to war and enduring their death are sacrifices, engaging in public debate and serving your community with respect and humility are sacrifices.
Gee, I wonder who will come out ahead in that debate? Keep it up Donny.
Edit: bit on how public debate and community service are worthy sacrifices is from interview of Khan I saw, not the convention speech.
M31
@Major Major Major Major:
sweet!
redshirt
Like some kind of jelly, I prove I was here. You were here. We were here.
Is it the same? Follow me…
? Martin
Poor GOP. They couldn’t even hire a not-exactly-popular-with-the-youth foreign act to play at the RNC.
Major Major Major Major
@FlipYrWhig: compared to 2016 and 2012 though? One of the debates ended with 15 minutes of senators bickering about school vouchers, for crying out loud.
@M31: My dad said “nice job, Internet!”
Jeffro
@efgoldman:
1) ‘Skeletor Coulter’ = win, thank you so much, that is awesome.
2) Yes, for Trump himself to go where even a normal-level-of-evil GOP campaign goes through its lower operatives is just amazing. I abhor the hate more of course, but the sheer stupidity is mind-boggling
3) And I agree, I’m sure this is just more fuel for anti-Trump ads…how they can even keep up at this point, I’ll never know. I might just pony up to send some pizzas and diet Pepsi to HRC’s Brooklyn HQ. (and it’s. not. even. August yet!)
dmsilev
@Matt McIrvin: The NYT has a nice widget for exploring paths to victory for both candidates (scroll down to the bottom of the page). Florida in particular is must-win for Trump; without that, he’s got to basically run the table everywhere else.
? Martin
@efgoldman: I get the sense that this Clinton campaign will have that list ready to go. One benefit of walking in behind someone from your own party – the transition is 20x easier.
jl
@? Martin: Either Bieber has some self-respect, or he was afraid he would be boo’d off the stage as an immigrant menace. Not sure which. Maybe both. Or he is smart enough to know that too many of his fans would puke if he did something for that shit show.
Keith G
I can’t get too excited about the wealth of speculative discussions I have seen on the web today. Patton might have been a bit antagonistic, but Stonewall Jackson might have been sympathetic and Bedford Forrest would have undoubtedly been willing to lend Trump his white robe.
I mean just for a point of comparison, how would tough ol Gen Patton have felt about William Clinton’s draft avoiding behavior? Or, the similar behavior of George W Bush?
Of course the real issue here is that Donald Trump shit on the memory of a fallen American of the Muslim faith while he was hectoring the deceased soldiers parents. This is an extraordinarily fucked up move no matter what other comments a theoretical General Patton could add to the argument.
I do hope the Hillary team will pay whatever amount of money it takes to be able to use the George Stephanopoulos clip as part of a campaign ad attacking Trump.
West of the Rockies (been a while)
@M31:
Well done sir/madame!
Jeffro
@efgoldman:
Great point! I’m sure she does have that 89 + 12 name list ready.
President Obama must laugh himself to sleep every night…I still say he should call Mitch McConnell up every night to remind him that the Garland nomination’s only good through Election Eve. “After that, it’s bombs away, Mitch, and I won’t be able to help you.” ;)
Bokonon
@Jeffro:
I wish I could avoid those discussions and ignore these people. But they are close friends and family members – and they are incandescent with rage at Hillary Clinton right now. They engage about this stuff at every opportunity they get.
And the rage at Clinton is DIRECTLY related to not wanting to engage about Donald Trump or think about the consequences of voting for him. I am sure that psychologists have a term for it.
hovercraft
@redshirt:
According to the media. Hippies hate America, repubs love it so their criticism is okay, while ours shows our disdain. Michelle and Rev. Wright ‘s criticism is reprehensible, but Donald calling it a divided crime scene full of stupid losers is patriotic.
debbie
@mike in dc:
Cuban also did some sort of anti-GOP rap thing with Colbert during the convention.
ETA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=An2eb6dKPps
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@M31: *applause*
jl
@Bokonon: I am in CA, so maybe different than other places, but I think over half the GOPers I know are either hissing out through splintering teeth that they will vote for HRC or will sit out presidential vote. I’ll take it. Anyway, the GOPers I know here are not all falling in line. Which is good for my blood pressure, since I have to deal with some of them on daily basis.
Hope Trump still thinks he has a chance in California. I want him to spend a lot of time here.
p.a.
Don’t forget, ‘good’, ‘bad’, or ‘indifferent’, a majority of Germans didn’t elect Hitler. If Trump wins, it would probably be by 50%+ 1 person; I doubt 3rd party plurality elections or W’s 2000 electoral vote
stealwin / popular vote loss will happen again. Would be a real shining moment in American history.Source:
To put the results into perspective, the 43,9% for the NSDAP in the 1933 election was the best result any party had ever had in the Republic of Weimar from 1919 to 1933[3] (second best was 37,8% for the Social Democrats immediately after WWI)[4]. Governments were habitually formed without any democratic basis at all, so the result of the 1933 election might have looked like a step forward.
It turned out that there is yet another way to govern without a majority – in March 1933 the german parliament passed what is known as „Ermächtigungsgesetz“ (Gesetz zur Behebung der Not von Volk und Reich), a law that allowed the Nazi/Deutschnationale Coalition to govern without the consent of the parliament. That this was in fact an unconstitutional law is a mere technicality – it was passed with a vast majority that would have allowed to change the constitution in any case, so the parliament skipped a step[5].
So,since Hitler and the NSDAP had more votes than any other party during the Republic of Weimar and governed on the basis of a law that had been passed by the absolute majority of the parliament is seems reasonable to conclude that he was indeed democratically elected.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@? Martin: …and no missing H’s on the computer keyboards.
Jeffro
Not that we didn’t already know this, but…we’re not just on the right side of history, folks. We’re actively making life better
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/opinion/campaign-stops/the-path-to-prosperity-is-blue.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share
sukabi
@lgerard: who needs them when you’ve got the Russians?
hovercraft
Yes before he became just another political hack primarily concerned with the narrative.
rikyrah
@dmsilev:
Yes…that’s the one..
If Hillary wins Florida..
Ferret Head’s path to 270 is down to ONE.
ONE PATH.
While Hillary has over 900.
Matt McIrvin
@dmsilev: It’s interesting to see what they consider swing states. I think New Mexico and Virginia are basically certain Democratic wins at this point, and Georgia is going to go Republican, barring something really weird happening. Setting those states up at the top of the widget makes Trump’s road hard. Not impossible, though.
Tom Levenson
@Jeffro: Your lips to the FSM’s ear.
Schlemazel Khan
@p.a.:
Nice name for the bill. It almost seems the GOP has used that sort of thing as a model. I would offer that the law did not, in fact, reduce the distress of the people or the realm.
Jeffro
@Bokonon:
I hear you, I have a number of those folks in my family (and certainly in my Gen Xer cohort). You’re right about them raging at Clinton to avoid thinking about Trump. A couple options:
1) Don’t engage…the last time a FB argument changed someone’s mind was never. But if you simply must…
2) Ask them (individually, not in a post) to consider general D positions vs gR positions
3) Ask them if they would consider a ‘generic’ D vs Trump…”given everything that Trump has said and done, even against his fellow Rs”
4) Ask them what exactly about Clinton is so radical (compared to Sanders, maybe?) and note that most Ds view her as a pretty normal/moderate/game-manager of a D
5) If none of that gets them to chill, then ask them how much Fox News they watch (kidding, kidding! That’ll just set them off =)
Schlemazel Khan
@Tom Levenson:
A mighty fortress is our pasta, rAmen
Emma
@Bokonon: walk away the moment they start. It might lose you a few friends but you might retain your sanity.
D58826
@Bokonon: SNL did a skit the other night about handing out free Trump bottled water. Most folks handed it right back. Now for those from the Phi;a. area will know that the public water is no great shakes in the taste department. So I sent my Clinton hating sister an IM about having a hard time deciding on Philly water or Trump water. Kinda riff of the old Jack Benny your money or your life routine. It was a joke. Her response – Hillary would double the price and steal the profits. But then she blamed Obama for BP failure to cap the deep horizon well. She has a masters degree so she isn’t some low information person. The hatred has passed beytond any logical explanation.
Roger Moore
@Matt McIrvin:
The belief starts with desire for a reason not to vote for Hillary and progresses from there.
SiubhanDuinne
@mike in dc:
@ding:
“Jagoff.” Heh. Heh.
@M31:
That was absofuckinlutely brilliant. I am dropping a deep and respectful curtsy in your general direction.
hovercraft
@? Martin:
What the hell is wrong with these people? Do they like rejection are they masochists, they have an entire genre that is made up almost completely of republicans, just play country at your rallies and convention, throw in a little Lee Greennwood, Kid Rock, Matthew Mathers and good ole Ted Nuggent and you’ll have no complaints. This desire to appear hip when neither the party or their voters are is stupid, they rail against pop culture constantly and yet are constantly trying to appropriate it. Just stop already, you’re being ridiculous.
Keith G
@? Martin:
Sarcasm?
The Beibs has been a monster on the charts for much of the last year and even considering a bit of a dip in 2014 has been doing pretty good for himself since 2009.
Matt McIrvin
@rikyrah: With their current definition of swing states, they say he has 5 paths left to win if Hillary wins Florida, and one that’s a 269-269 tie (which would probably be a Trump win in the House, though these days, you never know).
That’s versus 506 paths for Clinton. And those six are fairly implausible; they all involve Trump winning Virginia, which I am pretty sure is not going to happen. Give Hillary Florida plus Virginia, and we’re done.
There are still paths to a Trump win where Clinton gets PA+VA and OH+VA. Personally, though, I think Trump winning New Mexico is implausible as well. For Clinton winning PA+VA+NM or OH+VA+NM, he’s got one path left, which involves sweeping every other swing state, including New Hampshire, and one of those is a 269-269 tie.
(They don’t include the possibility of Trump winning the Maine 2nd district, which could turn the tie into a win. But these scenarios where Trump loses a big swing state but somehow sweeps all the little ones are pretty unlikely anyway.)
Roger Moore
@Schlemazel Khan:
My grandfather served in the 3rd Army under Patton*, and he had a mixed opinion of him. He didn’t think much of his speech- first he said he wasn’t going to tell them how to fight because they had proven they already knew how, then proceeded to tell them how to fight- but felt he was a highly effective commander. Of course some of that is because his division was transferred from Bradley’s 1st Army to Patton’s (new) 3rd Army just as the breakout from Normandy started.
*90th Infantry, which was the first division to land in Normandy after the initial invasion.
Matt McIrvin
@Keith G: Yeah, the singles from his latest album have been playing all over the stations my daughter insists on listening to in the car.
Shana
@Matt McIrvin: Wasn’t there a poll that came out this week showing Georgia basically tied? Am I misremembering that?
SiubhanDuinne
@Jeffro:
James Fallows, in his most recent Atlantic “Time Capsule,” quotes Joseph Welch addressing McCarthy in 1954: “Until this moment, I think I never really gauged your cruelty.” Then he paraphrased it to apply directly to Drumpf for his comments on the Khans.
Dee Loralei
@M31: truly a comment for the ages. Mc.h applause to yo! Bravo! I asked Betty Cracker to the artwork.
FlipYrWhig
@D58826: Her remark doesn’t even make sense as a slam on Hillary Clinton. Had Hillary ever done anything remotely like that, gouging customers and getting rich? Even if the “joke” is supposed to be something about corporations it doesn’t work. I don’t get what the thing is that “the left” thinks Hillary Clinton did. Vote for the Iraq War and give speeches at Goldman Sachs? These don’t seem like particularly grave political sins.
Matt McIrvin
@Shana: There was one, but I suspect it’s an outlier with a possible convention-bounce contribution, like the recent poll in which Trump was crushing Clinton in New Hampshire. Georgia has been closer than usual this year but I seriously doubt the Dems get it, unless Trump’s meltdown is so spectacular that Mississippi becomes a swing state (it’s closer than usual too).
Steve in the ATL
@Shana:
There was such a poll, but Hillary will not win Georgia. It won’t even be close.
Greg
The ghost of George C. Scott watched the Republican convention and here’s his reaction.
The Fat Kate Middleton
Guys, guys, guys. Remember the rules: don’t take polls seriously until October.
Feathers
@Schlemazel Khan: @Roger Moore: Doesn’t surprise me at all.
Also, the Laurel movie theater at the shopping center where George Wallace was showing Bollywood films last time I was by. Kind of a poetic justice, eh? Wanted to catch a flick on principle, but had to be somewhere.
dww44
@Steve in the ATL: When you say “it won’t even be close” what sort of margin of victory do you see Trump getting?
liberal
@FlipYrWhig: you don’t get a lot of things, like why turning Libya into a stateless hellhole was a bad idea.
Uncle Cosmo
@Steve in the ATL: Even if it’s a lift too heavy this year, make the bastards defend every damn office. Death of a thousand paper cuts. Not to mention good practice & stage-setting for General Assembly in 2018, not to mention 2020 (Presidential & Census redistricting).
Uncle Cosmo
@liberal: Infinitely preferable to your situation, unable to find your arse with anything but your head shoved high into your colon. Fuck off & die.
Major Major Major Major
@The Fat Kate Middleton: I thought it was August.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@D58826: I have an old friend in Ohio like that. He says he absolutely will not vote for Hillary. He hates the Democrats. “ABC” he tells me – “Anybody but Clinton”. He knows Trump is an idiot and unqualified, but he doesn’t care. He has convinced himself that too many poor people have too much money (not in so many words) and they’re wrecking the country, and Obama has made it much worse, etc., etc.
I don’t think Hillary can reach him – he wouldn’t give her the time of day to hear her pitch. The only way to reach him is through surrogates (I don’t know who could reach him though), and by Trump somehow going too far (if he hasn’t gone too far yet, what would it take??). Even then, he probably would sit out the election rather than vote for her. Flipping him back to rational political discourse is probably going to take years.
If it looks like Hillary is going to win in a landslide, I think that will help turn a lot of people. Most people want to back a winner, and that will help encourage people on the fence to turn out. The ones who are ABCs, well, I dunno.
There’s still time for us to make a better future!
Cheers,
Scott.
liberal
@Face: IMHO Sam Wang is better than Nate.
maya
@M31: Very good. I had been playing around with it but you got it just right.
Love that Percy Bysshe Shelley Adelson. One of my fave poets.
Librarian
No, I disagree that Trump is anything like Patton. Patton was an educated, well-read, intelligent man. He would consider Trump a draft-dodging, yellow bellied, cowardly ignorant loudmouthed buffoon. If were Patton were alive today, he would slap Trump’s face.
M31
@maya:
:-) thanks, and thanks for the inspiration
once I got the “small and shrunken hands of stone” the rest was easy, lol
ms_canadada
@Baud: I’ve got a spare room :^) and lots of records! (if you don’t mind 2 dogs & a 22 yr. old male university student included in the package).
Dmbeaster
I loved the movie (46 years ago, damn. And it came out only 25 years after WWII ended), but the real Patton was a major league asshole. He just happened to be in a job where for a short period of time, that was an asset . Kinda like Churchill who appropriately got the boot by the British people at the first opportunity.