Hillary’s back up to 8 points up in TPM’s polltracker (I can’t embed the picture here for some reason).
There aren’t enough polls yet to say for sure, but there are now three that show Hillary with a seven-point bounce.
by DougJ| 173 Comments
This post is in: Election 2016
Hillary’s back up to 8 points up in TPM’s polltracker (I can’t embed the picture here for some reason).
There aren’t enough polls yet to say for sure, but there are now three that show Hillary with a seven-point bounce.
Comments are closed.
RaflW
Trump gonna eppp-splode!
Roger Moore
Do you want to come back to my place, bouncy-bouncy?
Warren Terra
Slightly off-topic: is there a Balloon Juice ActBlue page or some such? I’d like to donate to beat Donald (and possibly to the DCCC/DSCC), and it makes sense to do so in some way that will encourage them to listen to their base.
Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (Formerly Mumphrey, et al.)
And in other news, Donald Trump has already begun letting us know that if he loses in November, it’ll be because the Democrats stole the election. I seldom say shit like this, but Donald Trump is the kind of guy who just needs to be taken out back and put down. After the election, needless to say.
Thoroughly Pizzled
They must answer for their crimes. We will bury them. Nothing less will satisfy me.
CONGRATULATIONS!
Trump’s a hard sale and getting harder to make every day.
OT: Keep expecting RedState to cave and do what comes naturally to conservatives, which is to grovel before the Chosen One. So far, much to my shock, they have not. They’re more anti-Trump than most liberal sites…which is definitely cause for pause. We should be doing better than that.
ranchandsyrup
oh. i was wondering where all of the “bernie would have won by 25 points and carried a bunch of red states” chatter was coming from.
RaflW
is there a Balloon Juice ActBlue page or some such?
+1
I don’t mean to sound braggy, but rather how damn serious I think this cycle is, that I just forked over a combined $500 before the 7/31 deadline to three candidates (Hillary being one of them). Woulda loved to have had that credit a BJ pitchforks & cranks fund at ActBlue.
I have further contributions to make over the next 60 days. So yes, dangit, can we get a BJ ActBlue rolling! Please!
BR
@Warren Terra:
Also sign up to volunteer for Clinton.
Trentrunner
Well, isn’t this interesting and very, very sad, from Reuters:
Emphasis added for maximum schadenfreude.
Dupe
PEC shows a 7 point bounce as well.
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/08/01/post-democratic-convention-bounce/
Roger Moore
@CONGRATULATIONS!:
That’s because they aren’t spending any time and effort on being pro-Clinton/Kaine.
patroclus
And poblano (er, Nate Silver) just updated his three projections: (1) in his polls-plus category, it’s 66.8% to 33.2%; (2) in polls-only, it’s 60.3% to 39.7%; and (3) in nowcast, it’s a whopping 78.3% to 21.7%. Clinton was trailing in the latter two just two days ago.
CONGRATULATIONS!
@Trentrunner: I read that a few minutes ago and wept, because I could not stop laughing. He has fucked up good and can’t fix it.
This is, of course, only the beginning. He’s going to fuck up all the time. Already has, we know that. And none of his “fellow Republicans”, besides that depraved monster Sessions, is going to do anything for him at all. Just gonna let him swing.
Kay
Crazy- person Trump now has entire, elaborate conspiracy theory about fire marshals.
Odd that such a wildly successful “builder” doesn’t understand fire codes. Complete fraud.
RaflW
FFS, Reuters. “freewheeling, unorthodox”? Oh how the press still feels the need to be genteel with our insane circus peanut.
FlipYrWhig
@Trentrunner: I’m telling you, if Republicans thought it was going to be a close election they’d be putting on a brave face and standing with Trump, going to the convention, picking fights with his foes, throwing rhetorical punches, etc. They aren’t the brightest bunch but they know the calculus of getting and holding power. The fact that they’re staying clear is the most telling sign that they know it’s going to be a wipeout.
jl
@CONGRATULATIONS!: What is interesting about that sad, but also hilarious, but also disturbing, Reuters story, is that the Trump campaign still doesn’t understand that it needs to reverse course. They are asking for backup to go with them on a disastrous and doomed course. They still have no clue.
Hope those idiots discredit themselves completely asap. That is he best we can hope for now.
Baud
It’s interesting that there were a couple of times in the past when Clinton and Trump were fairly close in the polls.
I wonder what effect the Olympics will have. On one hand, people may be distracted from Trump’s daily outrage. On the other hand, it highlights our desire to look good to the world and to be the best, which Trump isn’t except in the eyes of his die-hard base.
BR
@Kay:
I thought I just saw something about a firefighters union (maybe a local?) that just put out a statement out bashing Trump.
He’s really picking fights with the best opponents these days.
FlipYrWhig
@Kay: I _so badly_ want Hillary to run a commercial with the fire marshals Trump has picked on.
Mnemosyne
@RaflW:
I wouldn’t be surprised if the internal polling is even worse, which is why he’s doubling down on the smears. Because if there’s one thing we know about Donald Trump, it’s that he’s incapable of backing off an attack even when it starts hurting him.
A normal politician would be doing some kind of conciliatory damage control. Donald is getting his surrogates to start accusing the Khans of being Islamic sleeper agents.
RaflW
@patroclus: Silver’s data work of late has been crazy. He’s had the poll sensitivity cranked to 11. The levels of gyration have rendered 538 pretty useless the past 10 days.
BR
@RaflW:
I think it’s ok for them to use restrained adjectives when reporting straight news. As long as they Nancy Smash him with their reporting about his nonsense.
Baud
@Kay: Fun fact: Judas Iscariot was a fire marshal. #NotAFact
RaflW
@Mnemosyne: While ineffectual begging GOPers in Congress to “tamp down the controversy” re Khan!
Trump’s campaign can’t find two glutes with an all-hands-on-deck order.
hkedi
@Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (Formerly Mumphrey, et al.):
I think that when Trump loses the election, his fall is going to be pretty far and reasonably fast, probably ending up in jail or running off to Russia. He’s pissed off enough of the 1% (and the Republican establishment, that there will be enough of a consensus to make an example from him, especially for losing the presidency. They managed to Jail Martha Stewart for securities fraud, what makes you think Trump has done 100 times worse?
FlipYrWhig
@Baud: Lucifer means light-bringer. Like fire! HELL fire! SUDDENLY IT ALL MAKES SENSE
Baud
@FlipYrWhig:
We didn’t start the fire
It was always burning
Since the world’s been turning
We didn’t start the fire
No we didn’t light it
But we tried to fight it
Trentrunner
Well, because it’s been hours since Trump demeaned and insulted women, we now have this from USA Today:
Emphasis added for maximum gobsmacking.
The Dangerman
@Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (Formerly Mumphrey, et al.):
I see him bailing out (I assume Pence takes over); he got a week in Cleveland of having his pole polished every day (and, more importantly, getting Ivanka some TV time to try and sell clothing) but now it’s a long, hard slog and he knows he will lose. Better to call it “rigged” and walk now (if not this, I can easily see a “medical crisis” popping up soon). He will then say he would have won but for rigged/crisis/whatever for the rest of his life.
jl
@Baud: We can now add fire marshals to the list of GOP politiical bogymen, and hitherto undetected fifth column undermining national greatness.
These are the kinds of electoral innovations one would expect from the Baud! 2016! campaign.
It was just as incoherent and insane as the Trump campaign. Why didn’t it take off? There is no justice.
Roger Moore
@jl:
It’s the whole “dominance politics” thing over again. Trump can’t back down because it would mean he had been beaten, and he is pathologically incapable of admitting mistakes. He can’t even let the whole thing drop; he has to keep swinging to prove what a tough guy he is.
Baud
Seriously, expect to see photos of firemen rescuing cats in some Hillary ads soon.
debbie
Aside from Trump’s honesty and mommy issues, he’s definitely on the course of self-destruction. I think he’s working all kinds of angles to save face and what he thinks is his reputation. Yeah, he’s hard at work setting up voter fraud scenarios, but I think he’s also trying to force the GOP establishment to fire his ass.
At his Ohio appearance today, Trump badmouthed Ohio’s economic conditions — in direct opposition to John Kasich and Rob Portman’s constant touting of an awesome recovery delivered by them. I cannot wait for their reactions.
hilts
Biggest Asshole of the week not named Donald Trump –
Charles Hurt, contributor to The Hill and columnist for the Washington Times
Hurt: “Khizr Khan is a fine American and the father of a true American patriot. But now he is also everything that is wrong with American politics today. It is not entirely his fault, though he has only himself to blame for allowing his dead son to be used for the most hideous of purposes and dragged through the gutter of nasty and dishonest partisan politics… why would Khizr Khan choose to insert himself into politics and demean his son’s sacrifice by lying at a political convention on national television? The answer is simple: He allowed himself to be tricked into it. And the Clinton campaign was all too eager to take advantage of him and his family and Capt. Khan and use them for their own political partisan purposes.. Politicians like Hillary Clinton do not see people like Capt. Humayun Khan as a soldier who made the ultimate sacrifice on a foreign battlefield in defense of his country. Politicians like Hillary Clinton see him only a demographic, a dispensable political pawn to be scooted around an electoral map, the way generals used to move armies across giant maps of the lands they were invading.”
rikyrah
@Kay:
For real, Kay?
For real?
Ridiculous ???
Baud
@jl:
I blame voters.
rikyrah
Anymore reports from Ferret Head’s rally?
rikyrah
@hilts:
Phuck.outta.here
Frivolous
The bounce is very welcome. Lots of people like myself in other countries are terrified of a Trump presidency.
Roger Moore
@Baud:
Won’t help, and might actually hurt. One of Trump’s major problems is that he has an intense desire to be the center of attention. If people are paying attention to anything other than him, he will do something to try to get the attention back on him. The bigger the distraction, the bigger an ass he has to make of himself to pull people away from it.
BR
@Roger Moore:
He is capable of changing the subject, though. I’d bet that it won’t be more than 2-3 days before he’s created a new controversy and we’ve moved on from the Khans.
Baud
@hilts:
Pure projection. That’s exactly why the Khans spoke at the DNC — because Hillary recognized the sacrifice they made.
Calouste
@RaflW: Nate Silver has completely lost it this election. He wrote an article in November, when Trump had been leading nationally and in most NH and IA polls for 4 months straight, that Trump had less chance to win the primary than other candidates. The fame seems to have gone to his head.
Kay
@BR:
He parachutes into these cities and immediately starts bellowing orders at local officials. Seriously, fuck him. They have absolutely no duty to take orders from this clown and his ridiculous entourage.
He’s 70 years old and he doesn’t have basic, essential social skills, let alone “charisma”. THAT’S privilege.
RaflW
@Trentrunner: So she shouldn’t stand up for herself in this hypothetical? Or give even a passing thought to other women who could be victimized?
I don’t know why I thought Trump might, possibly have a tiny, teeny bit of sense when it comes to his own wife or daughter. Like a fully-predictable sociopath, he can’t even empathize with kith or kin.
eric
warren buffett introducing Hillary at rally. Not sure i had read anything about this ahead of time. #realbillionariesforHill
ETA: yes, in nebraska
jl
@debbie:
” Trump badmouthed Ohio’s economic conditions ”
Remember that the day after the GOP Convention, Trump was publicly plotting how he would destroy those dirty heels what crossed him in front of everybody, Cruz and Kasich. WTF is a stinking election for president when you got some scores to settle? TrumpWreck is a winner, not a loser, buddy. And don’t you forget it.
Grumpy Code Monkey
Three more months, with an electorate that has trouble remembering the last three minutes.
This will be flushed down the memory hole, and
PutinAssange has promised more leaks to “destroy” Clinton.We have to hope that Trump continues to self-immolate on a daily basis all the way to Election Day.
JPL
The local news in the Atlanta area, highlighted how close the race in GA was. If Trump keeps on his manic ways, he is not winning the state of GA. Since I live in a conservative burb, from what I’m hearing, it’s possible.
A teenage girl and boy were found murdered behind a supermarket where I shop this morning. They suffered from head trauma, and as much as I appreciate the good Democratic news, I’d like an update on that.
Mnemosyne
@Kay:
As other people have said, most builders and contractors HATE fire marshalls because they’re always getting slapped down for violating codes.
BR
@Kay:
I’m in my own bubble here in a very diverse deep-blue city, but it seems to me that losing veterans and firefighters would be the biggest strategic mistake he could make demographically, because they’re the most trusted groups among the remnants of white non-college educated men.
Trentrunner
@Grumpy Code Monkey:
Judging from the past 72 hours, I’m thinking this is a distinct possibility. Seriously.
Patricia Kayden
@hkedi: Your speculation that Trump could run away to Russia after he collects a much deserved electoral beatdown in November made me laugh out loud. What makes you think that Putin wants a loud mouthed American in his country, competing with his ego for attention?
Trump will find a cozy home on Fox News until even they tire of him.
jl
@Calouste:
” The fame seems to have gone to his head. ”
Seems like he is going with hunches, hiding behind models that are not real models anymore because of too much tinkering behind the scenes.
Quinerly
@eric:
I had read about it earlier. Nice intro. He also challenged Trump to show his tax returns. Buffett said he would release his too. Plus he is promising to personally take at least 10 people to the polls election day
RaflW
@jl: What is so utterly nuts about this is that any half-wit GOP operative who has run a campaign for even a city council seat understands that police and fire unions tilt right.
Trump does not have a campaign. Its a small collection of hecuvajob-Brownies with zero past damage control experience flailing around at the margins of Trump’s incendiary ego.
debbie
@Kay:
I’d bet none of his buildings meet code. That’s why they’re so Yuuuuge.
Baud
@eric: Great intro.
Kay
Imagine Hillary Clinton making a habit of critiquing how local officials conduct rallies. Christ, I could hear the outrage from political media in outer space. Why is this behavior acceptable from the Trump entourage? Why is there a double standard, where this is considered “unique” when it’s Donald Trump and “acting like an asshole” from anyone else?
I SAW the Obama campaign interact with local law enforcement in Toledo. They was gracious and polite and his campaign went out of their way to thank them.
Mnemosyne
@FlipYrWhig:
That’s another thing that makes me think that the internal polls (as opposed to the public polls) are absolutely dreadful for The Donald. These rats wouldn’t be fleeing the ship so quickly if they didn’t know it was sinking.
FlipYrWhig
@Kay: Wasn’t he pulling something similar in the primaries, offering more tickets than the venue could safely accommodate so that it would look like he was so popular they’d have to turn people away? So now he’s creating this fable about how THE GOVERNMENT is trying any means necessary to stop his crowds from massing, probably on the personal orders of Hillary and Obama.
hilts
The Khans are now being interviewed on the PBS NewsHour
BR
@Trentrunner:
I think the more important thing is that if Trump self-immolates faster than we expect, and loses another 5% in the polls in the next two weeks, we could see the GOP run for the exits, and Trump might fake a medical emergency to quit the race. Which would be fine, because his 25% base would never vote for Cruz or Ryan or whomever.
Miss Bianca
@hilts: A Harvard-educated lawyer – presumably a man with more than two spare brain cells to rub together – was”tricked” into making a major speech at the DNC? And then what – was he “tricked” into doubling down on Donald Trump later?
“See, not only is Mr. Khan a Mooslim, he is a not-smart Mooslim”.
What’s on beyond “shameless” as a descriptor at this point?
Roger Moore
@hilts:
What lie is he alleged to have told? Or are they just calling him a liar because it’s an easy way to slander him?
FlipYrWhig
@Mnemosyne: Yup. Because it ain’t like they’re known for their refined senses of shame and good judgment.
eric
@Baud: saying she will be the greatest president. a ringing endorsement. I was not aware he felt that strongly
patroclus
@Kay: Hillary actually has advance people who check the sizes of venues and then try to calibrate the expected attendance to the right size of building. They’ve run campaigns before and know how to do it and how much advance time is needed for stuff like that. Trump just does his campaign on the fly, gives out way more tickets than they have room for and schedules whatever building they can find. That’s why he has such frequent problems with fire marshals and the like.
hilts
@rikyrah:
@Baud:
Charles Hurt has morphed into the male equivalent of Ann Coulter.
OT
Let’s go Mets and fuck the NY Yankees
FlipYrWhig
@Miss Bianca: LETS SEE HIS TRANSCRIPTS is probably next.
Kay
@debbie:
“His buildings”. Please. Donald Trump isn’t poring over blueprints. For one thing, he spends 9 hours a day on Twitter.
Mnemosyne
@hilts:
He’s gonna need his own multiplex if he wants to keep projecting that hard, because those were exactly my thoughts when Sean Smith’s mother spoke.
Baud
@eric: That was something. MSNBC cut off after Buffett finished. They are probably going to Trump. Assholes.
hilts
@Miss Bianca: @Roger Moore:
Charles Hurt is either auditioning to become a host on Fox News Channel or he’s just a fucking moron or both.
Soylent Green
Trump isn’t attacking the fire marshals, he is calling attention to how many thousands of fervent supporters he has, so many thousands of loyal supporters that they always overflow the space available. Countless thousands of supporters. If only we had more room! So much support!
We will be hearing a whole lot more from him about the unfair, rigged, stolen election that he must know he is going to lose. Above all he must save face.
Miss Bianca
@FlipYrWhig: Don’t give them any ideas!
debbie
If anyone here has an in with the Clinton campaign, tell them to cut out the late shit. Yesterday, people had to wait 90 minutes in a non-air conditioned building while she conducted some sort of impromptu appearance at a small restaurant along the way. Respect the people you’re going to need, dammit.
JMG
Nate Silver has the problem of success. Something he began as a hobby became a big deal, big enough that ESPN/Disney hired him away from the Times and put 538 on the front page of one the biggest Websites in the world. So now Nate CAN’T be wrong about a general election. It’d ruin his business. Therefore, he creates three wildly different models as a hedge, and hedges his language even more than his numbers. It’s not dishonesty, it’s seeking insurance in a racket where he’s working without a net.
Quinerly
@Baud:
Lost the feed. They went back to HRC. It’s a great speech. She’s changed it up a bit. Think Buffett choked her up a bit. He said she “will be the greatest president.” She just gave a shout out to firefighters, too.❤
jl
Occurred to me that TrumpWreck’s meltdown is just beginning. He probably has an alert on his smart phone every time new poll numbers come out. Just coming off high that more people watched his acceptance speech than HRC’s, he expected rapturous boost in the polls.
But turns out people didn’t like what they saw, or many just tuned in to watch a TrumpWreck and laugh. Let’s see what happens as he absorbs today’s development in the polls, in another famous billionaire campaigning against him, in the horrifying realization that the fire marshals are out to get him.
Baud
@Quinerly: Thanks. Back on.
scav
Just for linkage and tangent past research topic, interesting little detail about credit card and personal info security over on the Trump site. C&L: Think Twice Before Buying From Trump’s Campaign Store. Because hackers, gotta protect against those Russian Hackers, otherwise …
Chris
@jl:
And why should he? He won the Republican primary by never backing off, never apologizing, always doubling down and being as crude and offensive as possible. He still hasn’t hit the wall that tells him where to stop, and I’m not sure he’s even aware that there is such a thing.
Which makes him a microcosm of the GOP, really. From Nixon to Reagan to Dubya to the shitshow of the last eight years, they’ve been getting steadily worse for fifty years. And for the most part, the country has let them. The elites have figured out that the rules may be changing, but most of the base still hasn’t, and that’s why they’re not going to back off on supporting him.
gogol's wife
@eric:
Whoa! I didn’t realize he was on board.
hkedi
@Patricia Kayden: I doubt he would last long in Russia even if he made it there. Probably have an “accident” or Putin would hand him over to the US when an extradition order went out as a show of “good faith and respect for the rule of law” ;)
As for Fox news, I don’t see him ending up there, remember the shenanigans with Fox earlier this year with him threatening to blackball them? No love lost there.
He either wins the presidency (oh god no), and dooms everybody in the dumpster fire of his administration, or he loses and is personally doomed. He has burnt so many bridges behind him, and has raised the visibility of his utter lack of any moral ethics, that only the most brain dead will do business with him. (So no fox news, AM radio maybe)
Baud
@debbie:
Why does such a thing exist?
Soylent Green
Sure they would. Most of them would. They will fall in line to vote for anyone but Hillary.
Mnemosyne
@eric:
Buffett has been on the Democratic bandwagon for years now and says that it’s a disgrace that our tax codes let him pay a smaller percentage of his income in taxes than his secretary does.
FlipYrWhig
@debbie: Then again the beneficiaries of the “impromptu appearance” was probably impressed/happy.
jl
@JMG: Probably furiously fiddling with the model to correct what he thought was his last mistaken fiddle, or to get what he thinks a ‘good’ model should produce. Doesn’t bode well.
Kay
@patroclus:
Because the fire marshal should adjust his schedule and rules to fit the lazy, poorly-managed Trump campaign. The fire marshal has nothing better to do than coddle a reality tv star and the C-list celebrities and relatives he travels with.
Trump’s cheap. That’s why he won’t hire a competent manager. Whoever he hires I hope they get the money up front.
Baud
Finally, someone is mentioning record graduation rates.
eric
@gogol’s wife: and he is someone that you DONT pick a twitter fight with. there are very few americans with a brand as clean as Buffett’s.
Quinerly
@Mnemosyne:
He got his dig in in his intro right then…”trickle down doesn’t work.”
dmsilev
@Mnemosyne: What makes you think the Trump campaign _has_ internal polls? I mean, sure, normal campaigns do. But, well, Trump. Do you think he’d let some “data” from some “polling experts” tell him what states to visit and what messages he should push?
debbie
@Baud:
Underfunded public education.
Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (Formerly Mumphrey, et al.)
@BR: The difference here, though, is that somehow I get the feeling that the Khans have not moved on, and will be only too happy to keep going with this, and, as Joe Biden would say, God love ’em for it.
sukabi
@Patricia Kayden:
ifwhen drumpf craps out at this election , he’s not going to be able to deliver to or pay back the Russians, it would be the LAST place he’d willingly go.Baud
@debbie: Jesus, kids go to a non-air-conditioned school?!
eric
@Mnemosyne: I have heard the tax line before. but not the overt candidate praise. i may just be old and not remembering correctly. thanks for the heads up
Roger Moore
@JMG:
I think there’s a bit more to it than that. The biggest thing is that when he was running his own site for the fun of it, he set his own pace. He only had to produce articles when there was something he thought was newsworthy. Now he’s part of a big media empire, and they need to deliver eyeballs to ads every day to justify the cost of running the place. That means producing new “content” every day, whether there’s anything newsworthy to talk about or not. IOW, he has been caught in the same need to play the horserace narrative that drives the rest of the media, with predictable consequences for his credibility.
Quinerly
@Baud:
I told you…she’s changed her speech up quite a bit. Very good, very confident. More relaxed, too.
Patricia Kayden
@hilts: So what about the Mother who bad mouthed Secretary Clinton in regard to her son’s death in Benghazi? That woman has accused Clinton of killing her son which is a straight up lie.
FlipYrWhig
@jl: I have a feeling he’s trying to pick up the political equivalent of “who’s playing best right now.” After all, his background is in sports prognostication, where that’s a common question, especially as the playoffs or bowl season come around. “Here’s what will probably happen 3 months from now” doesn’t have a bunch of fun fluctuations.
sigaba
@The Dangerman:
I assume some enterprising internal pollster is testing this proposition, though honestly I can’t see Trump doing this without some external pressure and I don’t see Reince or anyone else laying a hand on him to do anything. I think in order for the Grownups to even countenance such a decision would require positive evidence that Trump would loose and Pence would win, and I just don’t see that materializing.
Imagine if Bernie decisively won the Democratic nomination, selected Hillary as his Veep and then announced after a few weeks of bad polls that he was dropping out. And then set the coefficient of Crazy to 5.6E50. Much better for all the Republicans involved to let Trump lose and blame him or Hillary, instead of signing their own death warrants (metaphorically??) with their own base.
Baud
Goddamn, MSNBC. Stop interrupting. You wouldn’t interrupt Trump.
Kay
Who runs the fake-Trump empire while the CEO spends 9 hours a day attacking war heroes and fire marshals on Twitter? Has anyone ever witnessed Donald Trump actually working?
Baud
@Kay: Real estate investments kind of just . . . sit there, don’t they?
Shana
@Baud: I suspect Trump will up the crazy during the olympics because he just cannot stand not being the center of attention. I dearly hope it gets much worse for him.
Warren Terra
@Baud:
1) Schools aren’t hosting a lot of students in the summer.
2) Maybe just a non-air-conditioned gymnasium/auditorium? It’s a huge space often with big windows in which kids are expected to sweat (and even that not so much in summer).
BR
@jl:
I hadn’t seen anything of his RNC speech (didn’t watch), but just saw some clips last night from John Oliver’s recent episode. Trump’s speech was terrible, from the little I saw. His speaking style was more stilted than Clinton, and the ambiance was just…off. I know I’m not his audience, but he really didn’t come across as commanding in the way I think he wanted.
jl
@Patricia Kayden: Democrats, including HRC, knew best thing was to not respond. The situation was so ugly, the poor grieving deluded woman so poisoned and exploited by ruthless manipulators. It was so ugly, the wise and humane thing to do was not attempt an immediate response of any kind, at least not a direct one.
Trump and his bunch don’t have enough common sense or decency to understand.
Mister Forkbeard
@hilts: That guy is an asshole, all right.
Do you know what they mean by “he lied during the convention”? I’ve seen that one a few times, but no one appears to actually be able to tell me what he did. It’s just sort of generally assumed that he’s lying because something, I guess.
Baud
Do we believe Trump believes in negative polls? Romney didn’t.
Johnnybuck
@Roger Moore:
Which was the whole point of 538, to get beyond the horserace.
schrodinger's cat
@hilts: Text book definition of a racist. If Mr. Khan spoke it must be because he was coached. Yes, because he can’t think for himself unlike “smart” GOP voters.
Patricia Kayden
@hkedi: But he will be appearing on both the O’Reilly and Hannity shows tonight so it appears that he’s alright with Fox News. They are still shilling for him pretty hard.
But you may be right that a crushing defeat in November could change that. Fox News has gotten bored with Palin, after all.
Quinerly
@Baud:
But we have “Boris” with his accent. Hopefully he will deny the Russian connections. That always makes me laugh. Halperin is actually committing journalism with Katrina.
Richard Mayhew
@FlipYrWhig: agreed, his now cast as an analytical/predictive model is useless until mid October but it drives clicks. His polls plus is the useful predictive model now
jl
@FlipYrWhig: But you can do that in a disciplined way. Some of Sam Wang’s Princeton Election Consortium is that kind of ‘snapshot’. I wonder if Silver can give a coherent explanation of how his model works anymore. When I have time I will go to his site and see if he has any recent explanation of how his model works.
FlipYrWhig
@Kay: Remember how his son and consigliere both said that he was more of a CEO not a COO, and that he’d need a VP to take charge of foreign and domestic policy while he handles “making America great again”? I assume his day job is the same way. He sits on his butt as people come up to him with ideas, which they tell him aloud because he doesn’t like to read, and he says “sounds good, do that” or “sounds like shit, do something else,” and he’s been that way pretty much his whole life.
lesbonnesfemmes
@RaflW: Indeed. That’s why I stick to polls+ mostly. By the way, I am rolling percentile dice every day for the Election, and will have a General Election World Series right around the time of the real World Series. I use six different forecasts, pick one for the day, and roll for the winner. I’ve done sixteen days so far. Hillary is up 11-5, and on a four “game” winning streak.
The Dangerman
@sigaba:
I don’t see the RNC doing a thing externally; they need the beatdown to excise the cancer from their party. Their next “autopsy” should be fascinating.
My point is Trump isn’t going to let a beatdown happen; “he’s a winner, dammit” and getting crushed is so not in his DNA.
Kay
@Baud:
They spent 12 months analyzing Hillary Clinton’s email management, meanwhile, they completely neglected to do even basic due diligence on the GOP nominee. “He has Russian connections?” In less than a hundred days this person could conceivably be President of the United States and I know more about Hillary Clinton’s server than I do about Donald Trump. They know nothing- not what he makes or what he owes and who he owes, who his business associates are- they thought his wife had a college degree until a week ago. Oh, and BTW, the Trump’s lie about everything, so everything they said up to now was complete bullshit. They don’t even have TIME to vet him now. They better hope he doesn’t win. If he does we’re all in for some nasty surprises.
jl
@Baud:
” Do we believe Trump believes in negative polls? Romney didn’t. ”
Romney also did not have a need for constant evidence of approval and winning. Josh Marshall and some commenters here might be right about that too. Trump is entering the early phase a general election campaign where there will be no frequent slam-dunk high of a win or smash ratings hit. (Edit: and the drought in instant affirmation and acclimation highs will drag on until the first debate, which he is trying to chicken out of already) What is an approval and attention junkie gonna do? Looks like he will go mad in front of our eyes.
dmsilev
@Richard Mayhew: There are issues even with his ‘polls+’ model. He applies a house effect correction to each pollster without much information on how that’s calculated. There’s also some weird method for using national polls to reweight and shift the state polls. Etc. He’s created a kitchen-sink model, and the problem with that is that there are so many knobs and arbitrary parameters that you can get the model to say whatever you want it to say (or, it will say something, but you won’t know whether it’s meaningful or just a side effect of your particular choice of tweaks).
FlipYrWhig
@Richard Mayhew: I’m no expert but it reminds me of a thing that used to appear in the NYT sports section, probably 25 years ago now, with computer rankings of the NFL teams–like a prototype of the BCS computer.
RaflW
@Chris: I think Trump literally had no idea that winning a plurality of committed GOP primary voters would turn out to have been easier than running in a general election.
He really has zero, zippo, nada real world experience.
debbie
@Baud:
Some schools here still aren’t air conditioned. I know Fort Hayes is a historical building, but I can’t tell for sure if there’s AC.
RaflW
@Kay:
I suspect that there are few competent managers who would work for Trump at this point for any amount of money (up front, naturally). If they are competent, they know he and his jet-powered shitshow are unmanageable.
FlipYrWhig
@RaflW: I think it’s just “whatever I say, the idiots lap it up. Everywhere I go they tell me I’m awesome. I’m rich and famous and I’ve never had to work for it and I’m half-assing this and I’m dominating all comers too. How could I possibly lose?”
Old Broad in California
@hilts: Benghazi much?
encephalopath
I suspect that when Trump loses the election, he won’t live to see Clinton’s inauguration. He doesn’t look well and behaves as if he has taken leave of his senses. Despite his protestations that a rigged system stole the election from him, his ego won’t buffer him against the humiliation of that kind of loss and he will simply dissolve in a pool of his own bile.
Mnemosyne
@dmsilev:
I don’t think Trump has internal polls. I think the RNC does, and that they’re frantically waving them in front of Donnie’s face while he ignores them.
Trollhattan
@Frivolous:
Don’t worry, we got this. #MightGotThis #LongDamnTimeTilNov
RaflW
@Baud: The entirety of Trump has been reduced to couple dozen (or some such) licensing deals. A small office of bookkeepers is all that is needed to maintain the “empire.”
This is the real reason the tax returns will never, ever, be seen (unless Assange decides to back a different horse at some point)
Kay
I’ll be watching to see if any other Presidential candidate gets the special “Trump Treatment” after Donald Trump loses, or if the complete pass he got on any kind of transparency or disclosure applies to anyone else.
We already know the black guy didn’t get this kind of deference, and either did the woman. They were investigated to within an inch of their lives. This must be the “white rich guy rules” we’re operating under here.
CNN sent a reporter to Indonesia to vet Obama. His godammned grade school. Have any of them left their desks to vet Trump? He must have thousands of business associates over 40 years. Why haven’t we heard from any of them? They take statements from his relatives.How is this due diligence? My immediate family thinks I’m great too!
I got more questions applying for a job at IHOP, when I was 19.
Trollhattan
@Patricia Kayden:
First fall show of the post-Ailes regime: “Donald Yells at People.”
It’ll kill, I tell ya.
scav
@debbie: There were some elementary schools in at least one suburb north of Chicago that didn’t have AC until recently (one district I’m sure of, and not in a poor town).
FlipYrWhig
@RaflW: I have a feeling it’s another similarity to Saddam Hussein. I bet Trump’s organization has for a long time been telling Donald that he’s splendidly wealthy, not to have a care in the world, everything’s peachy keen, all the while hoping that they keep getting paid and no one ever finds out it’s all built on quicksand. Maybe the kids know. Or it’s like one of those Downton Abbey-era elite families where they own a bunch of stuff, because it’s in their houses, but they have no income, they’ve been buying everything on credit for years upon years, and it’s socially and legally difficult to make them pay up.
Kay
@scav:
We had two elementary schools and a high school w/out air conditioning until this year. One was built in 1906. I have a picture of a horse-drawn wagon delivering milk to the school that we found when we were trying to sell the levy for the new school. The road in front wasn’t paved.
They retired the school last year, because they could no longer patch it up to code. Other than that, it would have stood, I don’t know, forever?
Chris
@RaflW:
True. But then, the idea that they’re the only voters who matter and/or the Silent Majority is deeply ingrained with a lot of people in his party.
Roger Moore
@dmsilev:
That was actually in his original model back in 2008. He uses a combination of the swing in national polls and in similar (e.g. nearby, similar demographics) states to guesstimate the swing in states with sparse polling.
The underlying problem is that there’s a trade off between stability and responsiveness. If you put more weight on recent polls, you get a system that is more responsive to real shifts in public opinion but is also more sensitive to polling noise and 24 hour news cycle-driven shifts. If you put less weight on recent polls, you get one that’s less responsive to real changes but is also less “flighty”.
So you can tune the model to get one that’s more horse-racy or one that’s more stable. Naturally, the one that’s tuned to be horse-racy is good for people who want to drive interest. IMO, the best idea- and one that ISTR Nate using in the past- is to change the sensitivity of the model over the campaign. With 100 days until the election, it doesn’t make sense to go crazy with a model that responds too rapidly to noise and short-term news driven changes, so you should use relatively low weights for recent polls. As the election gets closer, you can turn up the sensitivity to capture last-minute swings.
Punchy
@jl: His NowCast went from Trump 55.x % to win to now, upper 30s. Insane swing.
PatrickG
@patroclus:
In the time since you posted that comment, the now-cast is up to 82.2% Clinton win. If these trends continue…!
ThresherK
@hilts: Just a prediction: This will be the least-bullcrap PBS Newshour in years. Someone in front of, or behind, the camera, will faint at the direct language in use.
muddy
@Kay: Oh grade school, was it? I heard it was a madrassa, of course they had to investigate that. Because they can’t google the translation of the word madrassa. Just the sound of it is scary and if they looked it up they might get a radical Islamic terrorist virus in their computer.
SiubhanDuinne
@Kay:
Remember when they (I don’t know whether it was CNN or some other media outlet) discovered that Obama had declared in Kindergarten at age 5 that when he grew up he wanted to be President, and the media went batshit berserk citing this as absolute proof of his unbounded, insatiable, stomp-on-everyone-who-gets-in-your-way ambition.
Mike in NC
Polls mean squat but ABC News says DNC ‘bounce’ for Clinton was 9 points.
Grumpy Code Monkey
@Kay:
We must now assume that the Village is actively aiding Trump, and that they desire a Trump presidency. Either for the ratings, or for perks of being friendly to an autocrat, or because they’re in the tank for Putin, but all of them are putting their thumbs on the scale specifically to aid Trump. Even Rachel. Yeah, they dug the speeches at the DNC, but they were actively undermining Clinton at the same time by relentlessly focusing on the Berners.
The Village will do its goddamndest to get Trump elected.
Gelfling545
@scav: Here in Buffalo most schools are not air conditioned. It was not uncommon for students to faint or develop nose bleeds from the heat during June exams. Usually, only the principal’s office has ac ( window unit), if there is any. My school, built in 1928, didn’t have the wiring to support ac.
FlipYrWhig
@Grumpy Code Monkey: But that’s just it: it seemed like they were going to do that, basically by treating Hillary the way they treated Al Gore, but since the Khans it now feels like they’re swinging a different direction. Because Trump’s reaction forced them to see that Wacky Donald Trump Antics aren’t cute anymore. The regulars here kept saying that news personalities would smile every time a Trump story was coming. I don’t think they’re smiling now. He’s so gross it’s bad for business to smile at him.
Roger Moore
@RaflW:
FTFY. As far as I can tell, Assange is doing Putin’s bidding, at least in areas where Putin has an interest, probably because Putin has Snowden as a hostage for his good behavior. It would be interesting to see how Wikileaks is being funded.
Aimai
@debbie: oh for fucks sake. Have you never been to a political rally before? Hundreds of things can effect timing. Has nothing to do with “respect.”
Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (Formerly Mumphrey, et al.)
@Mister Forkbeard:
The proper construction of this is, “He’s lying because reasons.” He’s lying because shut up, that’s why!” is also acceptable.
Roger Moore
@Punchy:
That’s not a crazy swing for the NowCast, which is supposed to show you the best guess based on current polls. Trump got a convention bounce, which made the race close, and then Hillary got a convention bounce that made it less close again. That’s the behavior you expect from something like that. What’s crazy is that his “polls plus” model, which is supposed to factor in convention bounce, also showed substantial shifts in the race. IOW, his model needs some serious work.
debbie
@Aimai:
As I said, she was delayed because she decided to stop off at a small restaurant along the way to talk to the few patrons there — far fewer than the number of people who were waiting for her at the scheduled appearance. We’re not talking about something uncontrollable like a late flight or bad weather.
Fuck you. I don’t care how in the tank you are for Hillary, rude is rude.
Roger Moore
@Grumpy Code Monkey:
I think you’re missing the big picture. The media isn’t in the tank for Trump so much as they’re in the tank for more news. Yes, Trump generates a lot of news, but that’s not why they covered the BoBers at the convention. They covered them because they were an easy news story.
Iowa Old Lady
@Baud: My teacher DIL’s school in suburban Chicago is not air conditioned.
philadelphialawyer
@patroclus: Pablano is so full of shit with his three headed monster. How can he be taken seriously, with this “nowcast” jive? There is no election “now.” There was no election when Trump had his convention, and before Hill had hers. So, duh, Trump got a bounce and, zoe my God! that means he is “now winning.” Even though Hill’s convention bounce was as likely as the sun coming up. Fuck you, Nate Silber,
@Roger Moore: Back in law school, during moot court, this one student would not get the hint from the folks playing appellate judges, who were throwing her softball after softball, by asking her if she would concede some point which not only did nothing to hurt her argument, but actually made it stronger. Kind of hard to explain, I guess, but the response they were looking for was something like, “Yes, your honor, if that extreme situation was the case here, then, yeah, the outcome would be different, but since it is not the case, my client should still win,” instead, she kept saying no instead of yes. She had apparently been convinced that you should never concede anything…so she repeatedly responded with “No, your honor.” They did it over and over again, as if to see how far she would go. As I recall, she never did get it.
Trump reminds me of this…he seems to have picked up the notion that no concessions, ever, is the way to go. That anything other than doubling down, no matter what the hand, is a sign of weakness, and one should never do it. Bush II had some of this too, but Trump takes it to a whole other level.
Shalimar
@Roger Moore: Why would Assange care about Snowden’s welfare? Snowden seems to have made a point the last few years of distancing himself from Assange’s goals and methods, most recently with his criticism of the Erdogan email disaster.
I agree that it would be interesting to see Wikileaks’ funding, and there could be a Russian connection there.
Grumpy Code Monkey
@Roger Moore: Snowden’s not a hostage. He’s a defector, if not in name, then at least in effect.
RedDirtGirl
This link to mockpaperscissors has some interesting polling info…
https://mockpaperscissors.com/2016/08/01/important-2016-goat-rodeo-update-2/
TriassicSands
@JMG:
American voters make polling increasingly perplexing. It’s hard to overstate the fickleness of many of our voters. It seems like, independent of chaos theory, a mere flap of a butterfly’s wings can change the polls. I thought the Democratic convention was very successful, but not a reason for Clinton to get a 6-7 point bounce. It’s not like she’s a newcomer, relatively unknown, and with a hidden political agenda. I’d be curious to see a name recognition poll for M. Obama and H. Clinton.
On July 12, 538 had Trump’s chance of winning at 22.5%. Then came the Trumpocalypse in Cleveland and and on July 31 he’s all the way up to 49.9%. Suddenly, Trump’s chances were dead even. And now, a day later, apparently with butterflies frantically flapping their wings across the globe, he’s back down to 36.7%. That’s a greater than 13% swing. Amazing. Could Mr. Khan be responsible? If so, it just adds more evidence of the flakiness of American voters.
Of course, the only numbers that will count toward Silver’s future reputation are the last set before the election and how well those percentages agree with the actual vote totals. Good luck, Nate.
Groucho48
So, Maddow is doing a long segment on how no Presidential debates is common and no big deal.
Groucho48
Okay, to be fair, she switched direction and is now saying backing out is kind of a big deal.
Shalimar
@Groucho48: You are hearing what you want to hear out of a long segment of historical research. That it would be no big deal for Trump to pull out is not even one of the points the segment is making.
Matt McIrvin
As far as I can tell, these crazy swings in Silver’s models are just encodings of the shifts in national polls (since there’s not much new state info to go on). His “trend line adjustment” is doing nearly all the work, state polls nearly none. You might as well just look at the HuffPo national averages. Wang’s is more stable because he’s just aggregating state polls and there aren’t as many. But it has the side effect of smoothing out things like transient convention bounces.
J R in WV
@hilts:
Wow, is that despicable and loathsome, or what~!!! I’ve never heard of this guy, but he is truly a modern-age monster of slander and libel. Perhaps worse than Trump, actually, when you get down into the details. As hard as that is to believe.
I don’t think Trump has called Mr Khan a liar yet, has he? It’s obvious that it’s true that his son Captain Khan died in defense of our nation. It’s obvious that Trump has been insulting American Muslims who are working hard on behalf of our nation.
So what does this dweeb claim was a lie in Mr Khan’s address to his nation?
Oh, wait. He didn’t tell us that, did he? Hoping he is diagnosed with, hmmm, pancreatic cancer. That sounds appropriate.
liberal
@Mnemosyne: Internal polling? LOL. What makes you think his campaign does any?
J R in WV
@RaflW:
Trump didn’t even win a majority of Republican primary voters… the other guys split about 60% of the vote up 12 or 14 ways, Trump topped out around 37% at the most.
I’m amazed that he’s doing as well nationally as he is so far, and I’m firmly convinced that he won’t quit without an actual real medical emergency, which he may deny for some time. No matter how bad the “twisted, fixed, Democratic” polls get for him.
I’m really expecting an historic crushing defeat, with both houses of congress flipping as well… wish me luck! I’ve been wrong before.
We’ve been contributing for some time, monthly to Hillary, occasionally to various Senatorial candidates, which I do in every election. One year every person we contributed to won!!! WOW that was cool. So the next election, I carefully picked out people we needed to win, and only hit about .500…