The post-convention Dump Trump movement among Republican operatives and strategerists is growing and getting louder. Politico has the scoop:
Republican insiders in key battleground states have a message for The Donald: Get out.
That’s according to The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of activists, strategists and operatives in 11 swing states. The majority of GOP insiders, 70 percent, said they want Trump to drop out of the race and be replaced by another Republican candidate — with many citing Trump’s drag on Republicans in down-ballot races.
I have two big questions. The first is a bit of taunting —“Why the hell could you not organize an orgy at the Bunny Ranch in January?”
Secondly, why the hell would Trump agree? A Dump and Replace Trump movement has severe mechanical limitations. Ballots will start to be printed in the next couple of weeks so there is a hard time constraint on any Trump Replacement movement. More importantly, any Dump and Replace Trump action has two major players who have to agree and a hostile player who has a say. A successful Dump Trump action needs the “establishment” Republican Party to agree to the action (they’re as an institution is either there or close to it) as well as Donald J. Trump to agree to be replaced.
The Republican insider argument is that Trump will cost them the White House, will cost them the Senate and will significantly reduce (best case scenario) the current GOP majority in the House. That means Trump will cost them the Supreme Court median vote. All of those are probably true and they are high salience to Movement Conservatives.
Does Donald J. Trump and his voters care deeply about any of those items except for the White House?
No!
He does not care about the House, he does not care about the Senate. He does not care about policy outcomes. He has a very limited shadow of the future and a very narrow give a fuck space that barely intersects with Republican insider give a damn space.
What is the gain for Trump to step aside? His brand is underwater as his name is currently toxic. If he is to step aside, his brand (and his ego) won’t recover quickly. His best chance of re-establishing his brand (and his ego) is to double down and win. If he wins the White House in November even if there are 98 Democrats in the Senate and 431 Democrats in the House, he won, and the Republican establishment are full of losers. His brand would take off and he could make odd speeches at golf courses while Mike Pence attempts to govern.
If he steps aside, the party insiders are better off, but his brand is shit and his ego is bruised as he would be the loser genuflecting to the wills of the loses that he beat in the primary process.
What can the Republican Party insiders offer to Trump that is worth enough to Trump to make it worthwhile for him to step aside?
Until I see a good answer to that question, I am assuming that the Dump Trump movement is merely a stage of grief and not an actual strategy.
Keith P.
They could offer him more (and legal) cash than his campaign will raise (net) to drop out. At this point, unless he is off his rocker, this whole thing has to be a way to pull in campaign money for profit. I have no other reason for why someone would raise 10s of millions of dollars, spend almost none of it, and then act
like a buffoonin a self-destructive manner every day on TV and radio.MomSense
Didn’t der Trump name his price several months ago?
dr. bloor
Heard a Repub operative on NPR yesterday suggesting that it might already be too late to viably swap him out. He mentioned that the deadline to get off the ballot in NC was 8/5, and finding a path for a Repub to win by sacrificing NC was very difficult indeed.
BR
We need to have someone leak that Rubio and Pence are being vetted by the RNC to replace Trump at the top of the ticket. Hilarity will ensue.
Bodacious
Could being drubbed in the election and crowned ‘LOSER’ have any impact? I don’t really believe he’ll bolt, but if polling continues to go south, he just hates to be seen as a loser.
But no, he doesn’t give one wit to what that party wants/thinks/begs.
AnotherBruce
Ten…..Billion…..Dollars (Dr. Evil pinky)
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@BR: I vote a rat fuck that says party insiders are talking to a receptive John McCain about a draft and replace movement. The toxic yam would go nuclear and maybe take McCain out in the primary. /bloggy wishful thinking
ETA: Just clicked on MSNBC long enough to see Tamron Hall trolling the shit out of Hugh Hewitt, who looked most unpleased– saying that either he knew something about Trump she didn’t or he’s been infected by the Trump cancer, apparently turning HH’s words around on him. I’m sure her boss will be getting a call from the (how did Betty C put it?) “Ambulatory Cream Cheese Statue”
BR
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I figured having Rubio’s name on the “replace” list would be excellent because it would make him attack Rubio, dividing loyalties in Florida which is must win for the GOP.
BR
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
On second thought, there are enough pissed off nevertrumpers with deep RNC ties, so if only someone could get word to them to start this rumor…
Patricia Kayden
This whole thing is beyond farce, beyond hilarious, beyond spectacle. No one could have predicted that Donald would do such a great job of tearing down the GOP. There’s not enough popcorn for this mess.
Couldn’t have happened to a nicer bunch of bigots.
dmsilev
@dr. bloor: Was just going to post that. Basically, the GOP has until 5 PM Eastern _today_ to get a not-Trump on the ballot in NC.
Yeah, good luck with that.
(If there was a serious dump-Trump movement, I suspect a lawsuit against NC forcing them to accept the replacement would be part of the package. However, by end of August and mid September at the latest, states will be actually printing ballots, since absentees and vote-by-mail folks get their ballots in early October. So, the GOP really has maybe a month. It’s wankery anyway; if they couldn’t get Trump out before the Convention, how are we to believe that they could do it now?)
dmsilev
@BR: Can Donald Fire(tm) Pence? Let’s find out!
Mai.naem.mobile
I think he said he would consider $150 million. This was a few months ago.
Peale
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: LOL. I believe it was Hugh who was floating around the idea of replacing Trump with Ivanka or Donald Jr. Like promising to run his children in his place (even though they aren’t old enough to constitutional take the office.) If the convention taught us anything, its that the children aren’t actually any better than the father in their make a buck at all costs foolishness.
gvg
@dr. bloor: I assume that the GOP establishment has already assumed losing the Presidency either way. They are trying to save the rest of Congress…and may already assume that they will lose some of that but with a less toxic name at the top they may decide fewer individual Congressmen will lose. I think their problem is deciding on which bad option is the least bad with no prior history enough like this to really tell them anything. Making a decision under those conditions is hard. Even harder is making the same choice because it’s a collective choice. Other than against Obama and us they really haven’t been that good at acting together for quite some time which is why Trump was able to hijack them.
After they make the choice, bad things will happen and it will be easier for the other choice to say “see, you were wrong and it would have been better if we had done what I wanted” and no one will actually be able to prove the choice made is the lesser evil, so they will stay devided.
Kylroy
@Mai.naem.mobile: I recall $5 billion being his “I’d have to think about it” number.
AnotherBruce
TPM pointing to a new poll showing Hillary up by 4 points in Georgia. I’m trying very hard not to start celebrating.
dmsilev
@Peale: I think Ivanka will be of age by the time January rolls around, so in theory, she could replace him. In theory. Of course, in theory, _I_ could replace him, though granted I’d run on a platform of “vote for Hillary, she’ll be a lot better at this Presidenting thing than I would”.
Although, come to think of it, that’s arguably Trump’s campaign message right now anyway, so maybe I should be giving the RNC a call.
Captain C
Pay off all of his Russian debts, rename the party the Trump Rules Party, and replace him on the ticket with Ivanka?
fuddmain
Please proceed, RNC.
MattF
You know the ‘This is fine’ meme (dog, sitting at a table with a cup of coffee, room is on fire)… The cartoonist has drawn an RNC-appropriate sequel: ‘This is not fine‘.
gex
Those 70% of insiders could have done something earlier this year to keep Donald from the nomination. They, as right wing parties are wont to do, rather liked his extremism. They thought they could use it to allow the other candidates to be just a little less extreme and seem moderate in comparison. And, as right wing parties are wont to do when they “use” this kind of populist movement, they lost control.
If any of dozen+ spoiled babies that ran could have stopped pursuing their own personal interest and help consolidate the not-Trump vote they could have avoided this. So I don’t particularly care that they wish they didn’t have him as a nominee now when they did jack all to prevent him from becoming the nominee. Stepping up now and saying “Someone should do something!” is a really pathetic way to close this all out.
yellowdog
@Peale: Ivanka’s birthday is in October. She will be 35 by election day. Does the candidate have to be 35 to be nominated or elected or to take office?
Kay
@gex:
I agree. It’s nonsense that they couldn’t. These are the same people who tried to remove the democratically-elected Bill Clinton and installed George W Bush in 2000. This idea that they’re honor-bound to support the meaningless and mostly unenforceable rules of the RNC is just hogwash. They were waiting for something to happen so they wouldn’t have to act- an earthquake, a flood, anything.
Rommie
The only thing that would make this even more sweeter is being October, not August. Right now, I just want to get to the first debate, and either enjoy the spectacle, or Herr Trump doesn’t show his yellow-y orange self up and gets called chicken. I have a feeling that’ll be the boiling point for The Donald, just like a Mr. McFly…
Denny Kolb
I told someone yesterday that I saw two ways that this ends for Trump. First, an axiom: Trump cannot bow out because the polling is bad, because it cannot be, he is “He, Trump”, so all of the polls must be wrong. If he drops out before the election he will concoct some story that his followers will swallow that he is not being treated “fairly” by the RNC or some similar gambit that allows him to blame his exit on someone else and he could continue to claim that the polls were wrong. This probably craters the Republican brand. The other and more dangerous is if he stays in and loses badly. He’s already planting the “I was robbed” seeds and a large number of his supporters are a) dim witted enough to believe that and b) heavily armed; November could be a very dangerous month for our democracy.
dr. bloor
@gvg:
Makes some sense, and I thought that might be the point. Even so, it’s pretty hard to see voters–not even taking into account those who become thoroughly pissed when the Tangerine Savior is knocked off the ticket–getting excited enough to show up to vote for a dead guy walking.
p.a.
Josh TPM all over this issue
BR
So, whose turn is it to troll Trump and get him off message again? Paging Sen. Warren…
Though I think getting NYPD chief Bratton to troll Trump a bit more might be more impactful — he can repeat his “I don’t think Trump has ever taken a punch” line a few times.
larrybob
As Rick Perlstein has pointed out, the #NeverTrump crowd never even tried to organize at the convention, absolutely no outreach to the delegates (and it’s not as if Trump made any effort to organize his own delegates). They’re still scared of turning off the base, just as Paul Ryan is because he has an open primary on Tuesday; I do think on Wednesday, if he survives, Ryan will reject Trump. So they’ll make mild protests and the like, but they have chosen to ride the tiger of white resentment. Good riddance is all I can say.
redshirt
The always excellent Josh Marshall has a column up about this subject.
I agree with his take: No way the RNC can remove Trump. And while Trump could drop out, that seems highly unlikely.
They’ve made their dumpster fire bed. Now they get to sleep in it. With the fishes, I hope.
JanieM
Wikipedia says Donald Trump Jr. is 38. They wouldn’t need Ivanka.
MattF
@Denny Kolb: I think, specifically, Roger Stone is trying to whip up panic among Trump’s opposition. But just saying crazy stuff doesn’t make it so.
Keith P.
@BR: Someone in Redstate comments floated a Biden/Cruz unity ticket the other day. The most surprising part was that the suggestion was “Biden/Cruz” and not “Cruz/Biden”…at least they’re not completely delusional.
Denny Kolb
@yellowdog: The constitution just says: “neither shall any person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years”. It’s never been tested but it reads to me like one could make the case that so long as they were 35 by the date that they are sworn in that it would pass muster.
germy
I want drumpf to stick it out to the very end. I want him to lose historically to the Hildebeast. I don’t want the GOP hiring any smooth talking fascist to take his place.
Peale
@Keith P.: I really can’t see Biden enjoying any kind of “unity” or even a good night’s sleep with Cruz hanging around the White House.
Patricia Kayden
@yellowdog: How the hell would Ivanka be a credible Presidential candidate? This is madness.
Peale
@germy: Actually I would like Ryan’s primary opponent to beat him. It will show what we all know – that the republican primary voters trust Trump more than any of these RNC insiders. Which is funny because Donald isn’t trustworthy. But is he less trustworthy than RNC Weasels? Not by very much.
Patricia Kayden
@Keith P.: Why would a Democrat need to run on a unity ticket when the nominee of their Party is leading in the polls? More madness.
Mike in DC
Trump would have to do one or more of the following to be forced out by the combined forces of the party, the media and his family:
1) post a dick pic on twitter
2) Use the N word or other ethnic slur
3) call Clinton a b—- or a c—
4) hot mic moment calling his supporters stupid rubes
5) punch a reporter
6) punch a baby
7) spill whatever he gets told in his national security briefing
8) double down on his feud with the party
9) suggest his supporters should riot if he doesn’t win
10) endorse increased regulation of banks, a one time wealth tax, and a higher marginal rate
11) say something blatantly anti-semitic or anti-israel
12) promise to work with the democrats in Congress to strengthen the ACA
MattF
@Keith P.: Despite some recent spasms of relative sanity on a few subjects, Red State is not the place to go for rational proposals. IMO, they’re just hyperventilating.
Richard Mayhew
@Denny Kolb: I think Ted Kennedy had a birthday that made him eligible for the Senate after his first election.
BR
@Mike in DC:
Someone needs to tweet this list to Trump — he’d get busy doing it (if only subconsciously).
MattF
@Mike in DC: In a slightly more serious vein, Trump has a limited repertoire. Things he hasn’t done yet are unlikely to happen. With Trump, what you’ve already seen is, most likely, what you will continue to get.
catclub
@germy:
Just like Obama was not really elected if you count only white men, this would be the reason that a woman was not really elected: because she was running against a crazy person.
Patricia Kayden
@germy: Yes. Let Trump do us the honor of destroying the Republican Party from the inside out. This will allow our side to take on other projects like convincing Democratic voters to come out in 2018 for the mid term elections.
Eric U.
the theory that replacing trump would help the down ticket races doesn’t make sense to me. I’m sure someone has gone through the logic above. The down ticket races require trump voters to vote for the Republicans, and if they replace him that isn’t going to happen. Plus, I wonder if Trump hasn’t just peeled off a batch of republican leaning independents that see the whole party as damaged goods. I’m sure it’s wishful thinking, but he could have killed the party
? Martin
Regardless of presented state deadlines to be on the ballot, they will allow a change on the ballot. Y’all are getting a bit too carried away with protecting the benefits of Democrats and overlooking the fact that the courts, when presented with a situation of the nation electing a president, effectively, undemocratically, that they will override the state deadline and allow the candidates name to be changed. There is no way the courts side with some bureaucratic deadline over democracy as an underlying ideal.
That said, Richard is correct – Trump sees no incentive to drop out. Yes, he’s losing badly in the polls, but dropping out is a greater, not lesser failure. And I suspect in his mind, he’s actually doing great. I suspect he views the world through a ratings lens – where the studio audience is representative of the population at large. So if his rallys are still well attended, and they are excited, then everything is going well. One of Trumps biggest weaknesses as a businessman is that he does not heed market research. That is, every decision he makes is based on anecdotal evidence. Sometimes that pays off, sometimes it doesn’t. That’s been true for 30 years. So if the polls are bad, and the vote is bad, but the rallies are great, then of course there was fraud, of course it was rigged. How could the election turn out for Hillary when that crowd in the arena was so loud and supportive?
Because the most important thing to Trump is adulation, he shapes his message to the audience before him, so even if the public widely abandons him, he’ll always be able to present a message that will fill arenas – and I suspect that’s the drug that carries him through this, rather than whatever payoff might come from winning an election. If you want to stop Trump from within, turn off the rallies and the media. And that’s why these two candidates are so perfectly different – Clinton obviously does not enjoy campaigning (but is responsible enough to do it anyway), she so desperately just wants to do the job. Trump is the perfect opposite.
Everyone is trying to envision arguments around Trump that are sensible, but none of them make any sense with Trump. Trump is not what anyone would consider a rational actor. His incentives are not like yours or mine, they are not like any other politicians. If you start seeing arguments that are designed for a narcissist, then they might be taking this seriously enough to get somewhere, but until then, forget it. Fear of failure might prevent him from trying it, but now that he’s in it, he’s in it.
Amir Khalid
@Keith P.:
Joe Biden on a ticket with Ted Cruz? I can’t imagine Joe agreeing to such a thing. His sense of self-preservation wouldn’t allow it.
catclub
@BR: He has already done most of those.
I know of: 4,8,9,10,11
The Dangerman
1) Promise of a Mount Trumpmore someplace?
2) Hands replacement surgery?
MattF
The problem is that Republican Party insiders can’t offer anything even remotely on the level of having your finger on the nuclear button. And that’s what Trump wants.
patrick II
@gex:
They live by the unwritten law that there is no such thing as the “collective good”. Individual decisions will be guided by the invisible hand (of god?) so that things will always work out for the best. And they have worked out for the best — for the country, not the republican party.
BR
@catclub:
Ok, well then I guess remove those from the list and tweet the rest of the list to Trump…
? Martin
@larrybob:
It’s worse than that. The reason NeverTrump went nowhere is that they can’t agree on who should replace Trump. The Cruz and Kasich factions are no closer to compromise than they are with the Trump faction. There is zero consensus on who would replace Trump, which is why names like Ryan and Romney keep popping up. Those names aren’t solutions but further evidence that the GOP is much more badly damaged than people are acknowledging. Even if the face of Trump, they can’t find agreement.
So there is no ‘base’ to the GOP now. There’s roughly 3 bases each representing maybe 15% of the electorate, and whatever detente existed previously is broken now. Which faction will emerge on top is anyone’s guess, but you can’t build a national party on 15% of the electorate. That’s why the GOP has been defined so strongly by Cleeks Law – the only common ground they’ve had was opposing Democrats, and if there’s a distilled heart to that, it’s opposing Hillary Clinton and Obama. And even that isn’t holding any longer. The GOP needs to find a way to define who they are not in opposition terms, but it’s been so long since they’ve done it that I don’t think they know how any longer. If I had to guess, Ryan will emerge on top and will define the new GOP. But will they have any voters? Who knows. That will probably depend somewhat on how hard the Democrats reach for the brass ring.
patrick II
So, while reading these comments, I have not seen a consensus candidate the republicans should pick. If it is not Cruz and lot of Cruz people will stay home. If it is Cruz everyone else will stay home. I feel terrible about that.
trollhattan
@Keith P.:
Literally the weirdest thing I’ve read in this, the weirdest campaign of my lifetime. Biden -Cruz is matter-antimatter.
Archon
I’m afraid of Trump getting replaced because I know the media would hail it as an act of patriotism and civic virtue by Republicans in getting rid of their odious nominee. The person that replaced him would get a ton of positive press and the beltway can go right back to what they always want to do, treat every election as a referendum on the Democratic Party.
burnspbesq
I have a simpler, short-term goal. I just want somone to ask Trump how he feels about having a devout, hijabi Muslim woman represent the dear old USA in the Olympics.
m0nty
@Mike in DC:
On the tweflth day of Trumpmas, FSM gave to meeee…
No but seriously, if he does all twelve of those, maybe the Trumpkins might start having second thoughts.
gex
I actually have to wonder if removing Trump would be worse for their down ticket races. If you get the Trump supporters/Tea Party extremists staying home, that could put the House in play. Because there’s the damage Trump does but there’s also the need to GOTV and Clinton’s clocking them on the GOTV effort. Can they afford to turn their most enthusiastic base voters off?
Fair Economist
@Denny Kolb: It’s been true since the very start of the Republic that you can *run* for and be elected to an age-limited Federal office while younger than the limit as long as you’ll reach the limit before taking office. John Dennis won election to the House at 24 back in 1796. I’m sure there are others.
? Martin
If this GA poll holds, and I would guess AZ will follow once they poll it, then every swing/lean red state is now blue/leans blue. They’re going to have to start looking for some new swing states.
South Carolina and Missouri are up next (Clinton -3), and then I have to say it – Texas and Mississippi follow (Clinton -5). If Hillary Clinton wins Texas and we don’t get a rapture, then I call shenanigans on the whole rapture concept.
Mike in NC
The odious Charles Krauthammer has finally written a column on Trump that I found delightful (WaPo, no link).
MattF
@Mike in NC: Yeah, he’s thrown in the towel. But he couldn’t resist taking shots at Obama. Pathetic, IMO.
BR
I don’t think Clinton will end up winning GA or AZ. It’s mostly GOPers who are just telling pollsters they won’t vote for Trump. Clinton’s not really gaining, it’s just that Trump is losing support. In the end I think a fair number will hold their nose and vote Trump because it’s what they’ve done their whole life. The main benefit would be to force Trump to have to put money into those states, but the thing that’s funny is that his campaign seems to be holding events in states that make no strategic sense (Maine?).
germy
I had a feeling something was “rotten in denmark”. I paid a $60 fee to join AARP (about ten years ago) and started receiving their little newspaper and glossy magazine. Every editorial said “Don’t retire! Keep working!!”
Today I see this
jnfr
No way he’s dropping out while he can bring in $80 million a month. That’s way too much potential grift for him to pass up.
Denny Kolb
@Mike in DC: With the definite exception of 12 and the possible exception of 10, none of these would cause Trumps supporters to abandon him. Also, no-one can “force” him out – he would have to drop out of his own volition.
CONGRATULATIONS!
He’s not leaving, and every Dem voter should be grateful.
Mike E
The Brooks piece in the nyt is interesting, if only for the many readers’ comments which riff on the theme, “chickens coming home to the GOP roost”…my fave snip:
If they (GOP) try to figure out what they honestly think about Trump, they will soon discover that they have dropped their moral compass into a sea of lies.
MattF
@germy: I agree. It’s possible that AARP has devolved over the years, but I’m definitely not interested.
dr. bloor
@? Martin:
The list of facts not admitted into evidence here is pretty long.
Betty Cracker
@Archon: Bingo. I don’t think it’ll happen, though. Trump is too much of a narcissist to drop out. He might drop dead — that’s the only scenario I can envision where he wouldn’t be the candidate.
JMG
@Fair Economist: Joe Biden turned 30 during the course of his first election to the Senate in 1972.
Fair Economist
@? Martin:
It interesting that the next state to flip after GA/AZ would be South Carolina, but you never read discussions of that; discussion of other “deep flips” focuses on MO, UT, and IN, all of which have wider natural R leans. It’s like the punditocracy just can’t conceive of South Carolina, birthplace of the Confederacy, birthplace of Strom Thurmond, and traditional opinion leader for racism, voting against the racist.
MattF
@Betty Cracker: I agree. Suppose, e.g., that Ryan ‘takes back’ his endorsement. So fucking what?
Mike E
@burnspbesq: see, baiting a megalomaniacal demagogic narcissist is as easy as whispering faint praise, then stepping back for about an hour (or a coupla days)
MJS
Trump will not be dropping out, or allow himself to be replaced. Remember, after “The Art of the Deal” came “The Art of the Comeback.” If ( a big if) he even recognizes that he’s failing badly right now, then in his mind, that is just going to make the “comeback” all the more remarkable. Unfortunately, we have virtually every media outlet chomping at the bit to see one iota of evidence that Trump is “pivoting” or “gaining traction” so that they can breathlessly report on that “comeback.” Oh how I wish this was October 28th or so.
low-tech cyclist
To sum up:
1) Trump would have to quit, he’s got no reason to quit, and damned if he’d quit if the GOP asked him to.
2) They don’t have an agreed-upon replacement, and there’d be one hell of a fight over who gets to be the new nominee.
3) A lot of Trump voters would walk, regardless of who the replacement was.
Like Richard said up top, this is a stage of grief, or maybe several of them. They’re cycling through denial, anger, bargaining, and depression, but never getting to acceptance.
one_particular_harbour, fka Botsplainer
@AnotherBruce:
I’m not a chick, but that Georgia news made me wet.
catclub
@jnfr: I agree. But will fundraising like that continue if he plummets in the polls and is bound for defeat?
It was also the first month they actually worked on fundraising. I bet there was pent-up money then.
eric
The GOP has it wrong. Trump is not the problem, the voters are the problem. The trump voters deeply WANT trump because he gives voice to their violent ids. The GOP has incubated the violent ids with thinly-masked sexism, racism, and other -isms for years. For al of his faults, trump is an unabashed new yorker….he says EXACTLY what he is thinking and has for years (which is why everyone in NY long ago knew who he was). Replacing trump does not replace the trump voter who is going to want another trump, not a kasich or a cruz.
Bobby Thomson
@Mike in DC: 10 and 12 are the only ones that would hurt him with the party.
Peale
@gex: Yeah. That “Poll” of “Insiders” (whatever that is) is really a poll of a bunch of sausage-brained pooh-bahs. I would be curious for that “Poll” to include such question as:
1) Obama is a Christian
2) Hillary and Bill often kill their associates and cover up those murders as suicides and accidents.
Let’s see how they answer those two. Those “savvy” insiders have actually been in control of the message that their voters have been receiving for years. I don’t actually think they are that savvy. They spread these rumors because they believe them themselves.
Keith P.
One positive about Trump is that it might provide enough motivation for the government to finally provide serious funding to time travel research.
CONGRATULATIONS!
@eric: I think most of us have it wrong as well. Because, let’s face it, having to stand in front of a mirror and say into the quiet air of your morning prep “just about half my fellow citizens are really into racism, violence, and willful, forcible stupidity” is a real downer to starting your day.
But it’s true and you’re right: Trump is a symptom, not a cause.
Mike E
@eric: The GOP is a totally fraudulent enterprise and no serious, self-respecting pol would helm that limping oil tanker. End game.
jnfr
@catclub:
That’s a great question and I have no idea. Should make for an interesting autumn, if you’re into politics watching. And I am :)
patroclus
@? Martin: I think Alaska and Utah would flip before Texas.
Steeplejack
A nine-figure dollar amount and an ironclad excuse.
mike in dc
I think he’s not going to quit, which leaves only a few options for the Rs assuming things remain this bad or get even worse:
1) RNC pulls its resources from supporting Trump and focuses down ballot.
2) Establishment figures pull their endorsements after a series of escalating confrontations.
3) They suck it up, double down, and ride the rocket ship straight into the ground.
I expect defections by Republican donors, former office holders and a handful of current ones to continue. The crossover vote will be significant.
Frankensteinbeck
I argue that Trump’s voters care about congress. They believe that a vast majority of whites are just waiting to have their hate unleashed, and will win the whole pot in any free election, or in the race war following a stolen election*. Contrary facts must be fake.
*This war will not happen. They’re too chickenshit and disorganized.
@Keith P.:
Ego. Never, ever underestimate the self-destructive irrationality people will descend to if it strokes their ego.
mike in dc
@Steeplejack:
He’d have to fake a developing health complication over the next 4 weeks. After early September it’s too late.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Good god, I saw that idea floating around on twitter yesterday and it was yet another “The Onion? Or FoxNews?” moment. Just as likely the days it came from The Favorite Face of MNSBC Daytime.
schrodinger's cat
@mike in dc: #3 is what happens. They don’t have an exit strategy, brains or a backbone.
raven
@Denny Kolb: Fuck em.
Immanentize
@Kylroy: if Trump did get 5 billion solid and walked away from the run, I would have to admit that this was the best most awesome shakedown negotiation ever. EVAH!
His brand would be stabilized for all knowable time into the far future. The deal would be studied in all the world’s elite institutions of higher education. Ph.D Dissertations would abound. Entire business school curriculums would be created from the DEAL. He would become a verb.
rikyrah
Military and overseas voters will begin being mailed ballots September 24th.
BY LAW.
People don’t get it. Changing ballots is way more complicated than you think.
Getting a ballot from beginning design to print is a series of deadlines that need to be met.
Offices are working the prep for ballots NOW.
eric
@Immanentize: “trump” is a verb from bridge. Though it would fit, but would have to written in gold, all caps.
Aleta
He would bargain, having the upper hand, to get his real and concocted debts paid and then some. His name now has proven power to attract viewers on cable and sell tickets to speeches, a way to profitably turn away from his real estate fiascos. He sees his kids as ads for himself, so he’s also in it to launch them. Rs can offer them positions on advisory boards, other lucrative work. His achievement is his block of followers, and he’ll still hold on to that and its influence.
Booger
@redshirt: That’s quite the metaphor you got going there.
Kay
Completely.
Gerald
@Keith P.:
LOL …He IS off his rocker!
THAT is their problem.
I say “Let them have at it”.
Immanentize
@? Martin:
When I lived in Texas I had a good friend who was raised in the Church of Christ (motto — “We speak when the bible speaks and we are silent when the bible is silent”). When a kid, together with her buddies, she told me they would all often imagine the rapture like — “What happens if the rapture comes when we’re riding the school bus and the Lord takes Walter (the driver)”. Also, they would compare notes about whose parents would go in the rapture by revealing all their home secrets. Funny thing was, she said, no kid ever thought they would go in the rapture.
catclub
@Kay: He sure hopes so.
Metavirus
I think we’re looking at this from the wrong angle. Trump WANTS to lose. Of course he doesn’t want to govern. He just wants to set up the loss so it looks like the election was stolen from him, thus making him a martyr, and keeping all that sweet unconditional adulation coming, without all that pesky stress. He wouldn’t have lost — he was cheated //cue outrage//.
eric
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/8/5/1557115/-Clinton-campaign-ad-asks-What-is-Donald-Trump-s-connection-to-Vladimir-Putin#read-more
eric
eta…cannot link, but new hillary putin ad at GOS
1,000 Flouncing Lurkers (was fidelioscabinet)
@Fair Economist: Both Mississippi and South Carolina have large, well-organized African-American voting blocks, Traditionally, Mississippi has had, since the late 1960s, the largest number of African-American elected officials nationwide. In 2012, Romney only had a 12% advantage over Obama and in South Carolina 11%, as opposed to the 20% in Tennessee and 22% he managed in Alabama. Missouri was at 10%, Georgia at 9&, and North Carolina at only 2%. It’s my understanding that in Mississippi only about 10% of the white population voted for Obama–but how many, especially women, will go for Hillary? It’s an unanswered question, but I think it’s worth the money to find out.
I feel this way especially strongly given the place these two states held in the Confederacy, along with Georgia. Make Alabama feel a draft on both sides!
Even if these states are not ultimately obtainable for the Democrats in this election, the GOP should still be made to fight and pour money into them, in every race possible. the presidential losses in 2008 and 2012 were disheartening to a lot of GOP stalwarts, which is one reason so many donors are sitting on their hands. Make them spend that money at a party level, even if Trump tries to hang on to his.
Grumpy Code Monkey
Think about all those Trump supporters – the open-carrying, unhinged, paranoid wing of the Republican base who feel Trump is their champion against the hordes of dusky-hued sub-groups out to destroy White America? How would they react to the GOP replacing Trump at the top of the ticket?
It’s too goddamned late to change horses now. Trump won the nomination, fair and square. They had multiple opportunities over the last year to knock him out of the primaries, but because “acting for the common good” is such an alien concept for these people they couldn’t do it.
The only way Trump is off the ticket is if he kicks. And as bad a shape as he’s obviously in, I don’t see that happening before November.
By which time we’ll all have died of asphyxiation from non-stop laughing, and he wins handily.
Frankensteinbeck
@Aleta:
Trump will not hold onto his followers if he quits. They don’t care about him. They care about white power. If he’s not a presidential candidate, he can’t offer that. They’ll forget him and demand another.
I grant that Trump doesn’t know this, and the GOP may not be willing to admit it to themselves.
Miss Bianca
@Immanentize: I think it might have been Jenny Lawson (aka “The Bloggess”) who had a poignant/terrifying bit about how she came home one summer afternoon when she was a little one, and all the doors to the house were open and her whole family was gone. She was absolutely terrified that they had been Raptured away and had left her all alone.
And that’s when I decided that Rapture talk like that – where kids end up terrorized – might actually count as child abuse. At least in my book.
Immanentize
@eric: I was seriously musing whether bridge might have to find a new word if “trump” gets too toxic. Kinda like “niggardly. ” Unuseable regardless of derivation.
Immanentize
@Miss Bianca: I agree. So did my Texas friend. It was so often used as a threat in her home — just like that description — “Shape up or we will leave you alone.”
raven
@1,000 Flouncing Lurkers (was fidelioscabinet): I there were just some way to wrestle Athens back from these districting fucks!
eric
@Immanentize: lol. International Bridge Commission hereby adopts the term “Obama” to replace “trump,” for, shall we say, obvious reasons.
bemused
@Immanentize:
Garrison Keillor had a great rapture mystery bit on PHC years ago when GW was president. A little girl calls saying she can’t find her parents. GK calls around to find out who has been raptured including Bush, Billy Graham and the Pope.
Emma
@eric: They should translate it into Spanish and run it 24/7 in the South Florida Spanish language tv and radio stations.
Feathers
What strikes me about these laments is that they aren’t talking about the main thing separating the Democrats and Republicans – the grift. The Democrats just don’t have people running sham Presidential campaigns so they can get rich. All of the other nastiness can be pushed into the politics column. The worst of it (birtherism, Benghazi!!!, Vince Foster, climate change denial) can probably be put down to grift as well, because people are making good money, with their only job being pushing that nonsense.
That was the original sin. Grover Norquist claiming that it didn’t matter who was President, as long as there was an R next to his name. That is the attitude that got us to Trump.
? Martin
@dr. bloor: There’s plenty of situations when the courts have allowed candidates to be replaced past the state deadlines, for lesser races. Torricelli in NJ was accused of misdeeds (not even indicted) and dropped out of the race a month after the deadline. The courts allowed Lautenberg to be placed on the ballot. They indicated that election laws should be broadly interpreted in order to allow voters the opportunity to make a choice – so long as the election officials can prepare the election. So there’s is still a deadline, but it’s based on when the SOS needs to start printing ballots, and not on what the legislature said (which was really designed to give the SOS a nominal amount of time to do that).
Election lawyers all seem to agree that the courts are going to side with the interest of the voter in having an ability to make a choice over the interest of the party or of the legislature.
Cermet
The best solution would be if tRump’s plane manages to hit Cumulus Granite while flying him to some western state. Otherwise, he remains in and they are just SOL.
Booger
@Betty Cracker: Do you think Roger Stone is enough of a ratfvcker to ‘give him a push’?
Steeplejack
@Mike in NC:
For those who dare: Charles Krauthammer, “Donald Trump and the Fitness Threshold.”
Frankensteinbeck
@Immanentize:
Heh. I wrote half a book based on the premise that He’ll is full of children, because part of growing up is convincing yourself YOU are not going to Hell. I didn’t finish it because I was just blowing off steam. I will have to be much, much more famous before any publisher would consider Princess Knives and Her Many Fantastic Adventures in Hell.
Anoniminous
I am very sorry to hear this.
Quinerly
Did anyone else see/hear this mini press conference Hillary just gave?
Immanentize
@Booger: I really don’t think Roger Stone cares a bit about Trump winning. He cares about Roger Stone being in a position to rodent hump. And he is in such a place right now — one old man’s last run at stirring the soup. And now we can see that Stone really doesn’t care which rats, R or D, he fucks. He seems to be having the time of his life!
rikyrah
Watching Chris Hayes last night and he was talking with some reporter about the GOP finally getting the little donations – but, that’s tied to TRUMP.
cursorial
@Mike in NC: I would normally avoid a Krauthammer column like the plague, but that one is entertaining. This line, for instance, made my morning:
eric
@Immanentize: he will even fuck thai rats!
Immanentize
@Frankensteinbeck: I would consider it! Young adult fiction is big stuff. Almost all of it built around feelings of alienation, shame, remorse and (ultimately) redemption. You should finish it!
Immanentize
@eric: sorry, but I am missing a reference here…. Thai rats?
rikyrah
@? Martin:
I don’t believe Texas is possible.
Mississippi?
Yes.
All Hillary needs is 16% of the White vote.
ONLY 16%
These are the White women that defeated Personhood in Mississippi. Surely, there are enough of them to get Hillary to 16% of the White vote.
I think it’s possible.
Geoduck
@germy: After a storm of negative feedback, AARP quickly announced they’re cutting ties with ALEC.
Anoniminous
@? Martin:
The current GOP does not have the necessary requirement to redefine themselves: a group of people capable of Creative and Critical Thinking. Plus, the overwhelming majority of Conservatives and God-Bothering Cretins cannot make a valid argument and wouldn’t know a valid argument if it bit them in the ass so even if the former necessity was met the GOP coalition members wouldn’t accept it.
JosieJ (not Josie)
@Mike in DC:
I actually think #9 is highly likely. He’s already started laying the groundwork.
Feathers
Great article from Sarah Kendzior: Donald Trump and his followers could destroy America even if he loses
Sicilian Dish
They are ridiculous. This is their guy. As divisive as Lee Atwater and the Southern Strategy, as morally bankrupt as Oliver North doing Treason the in the White House basement, as dishonest as Dick Cheney inventing the case for war with Iraq, as stupid as GWBush elevating 9/11 criminals to a status equal to the United States Marines, as delusional as any rabidly credulous Alex Jones Conspiracy Nut. And as destructive as the the ‘war on terror’ which is responsible for creating ISIS and blowing up the Middle East. Trump is the whole package. He is their guy.
Enhanced Voting Techinques
I could see Trump going on about being stabbed in the back by the RNC and suspending his campaign Ross Periot style if the polling gets bad enough. That way Trump can claim he didn’t quit, gets his excuse out and punishes the Republicans for not being Trump enough for Trump’s exacting tastes+*.
* My god, consider that sentence, there is no way that buffoon can ever be president.
? Martin
@patroclus: Demographically, Texas should flip a lot sooner, but turnout isn’t there to do so. Texas is the GOP firewall. If the Dems can breech it, it’s game over for the GOP. If the Dems can drive turnout particularly in the rural latino areas (nontrivial) then they should be able to get Texas.
? Martin
But it’s really remarkable that the odds went from 1:1 to 6:1 for Clinton in the span of a week. That’s just amazing.
Steeplejack
@mike in dc:
His team could check old episodes of The Colbert Report. The Prescott Pharmaceuticals bits always had plausible-sounding medical conditions as the side effects of Prescott drugs.
(Damn it, can’t find any clips!)
Frankensteinbeck
@Immanentize:
That is sweet of you. Maybe when I’m feeling more financially stable. Right now it’s the middle school girl supervillain that brings in the bread and butter. My experience is that the weirder the book, the less likely it is to sell. On the other hand, ‘dark’ works just fine. Quite Contrary outsells Please Don’t Tell My Parents I’m A Supervillain sometimes, just not consistently.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
Trump hates Republicans more than Hillary or the Democrats at this point, although Obama, personally, is probably his 2nd most intense object of hate. Since he acts out of a need for dominance, Obama isn’t in his league and everything Trump says about him is a provable lie anyway – high risk, low reward to focus on Obama. Republicans OTOH are ripe for humiliation, since he’s already dominated most of them, and they’re compliant spineless helpless children at this point – his favorite kind of target. He’s not going anywhere, and he’ll make sure every last one of them who didn’t work to get him elected will be blamed and punished by bringing them all down with him.
Doug R
@dmsilev: Canada prints about 20,000,000 ballots in about 28 days. Where’s that American can-do spirit?
Frankensteinbeck
@Sicilian Dish:
And when he’s gone, the base will want another like him. That’s going to get weird.
eric
@Frankensteinbeck: So Trump could simply say “it’s not you, it’s me” and walk off the stage….
dr. bloor
Completely off topic, but to quote Haydn, this will make the ladies scream.
Prominent Anti-Hillary Researcher Dead at 54.
D58826
OT but just watched the newly released video of the cops in Chicago killing that 18 year old black man over an alleged stolen car. What struck me was the number of shots that were fired and missed in a residential neighborhood. Looked to me like the citizens were in more danger from wild uncontrolled police shooting than anything that the kid in the car did.
1,000 Flouncing Lurkers (was fidelioscabinet)
@raven: I hear you. Maybe come 2020!
Mnemosyne
@Miss Bianca:
Scarring as Catholicism was in many ways, at least I never had to fear that my entire family would abandon me. I think I saw Fred Clark post her story and say that he had similar fears as a child raised in the same type of church.
eric
@dr. bloor: sploosh
Peale
@dr. bloor: Yep. Saw that. It is really a good facebook-cleansing moment as anyone who posts up with a something about the “46 mysterious deaths, three in the past week alone” will be getting dropped as friends and disowned as family members.
Trollhattan
@dr. bloor:
Or as I like to call it: going Breitbart. Pity.
rikyrah
@D58826:
Shot in the back…’RESISTING ARREST’.
That was invented just for Black people.
rikyrah
@? Martin:
so true.
so true.
geg6
@dr. bloor:
Agreed. It’s never happened in a presidential contest, but it’s happened plenty of times for senate, house, and statehouse races. The courts could certainly order it done, but it wouldn’t work logistically, which is why those other races had to go ahead with the ballots as is.
Mnemosyne
@Frankensteinbeck:
It’s probably because “Quite Contrary” is a $1.99 deal pretty often — I know that’s when I picked it up. Haven’t had time to read it yet, though. ? I’m still trying to survey my genre and see if I need to update my style. Oh, the harsh life of having to read Tessa Dare and Eloisa James …
JosieJ (not Josie)
@JosieJ (not Josie):
I should clarify that I think Trump is laying this groundwork to rationalize an ass whupping at the polls, not as an excuse to drop out of the race. Nor do I think the GOP establishment can or will do anything other than bleat ineffectually about it. They have no leverage over him to force him to do anything he doesn’t want to do.
geg6
@Kay:
He prays that’s true. I doubt that very much, myself.
PatrickG
He does not care about the House.
Such things do not concern a louse.
He does not care to win the Senate.
His outsized ego? Epidemic!
He does not care about the Court.
Who cares if it’s the last resort?
He does not care for policy.
In details takes no solace he!
I do not like this vulgar man,
This walking, talking human yam.
[With deep apologies to the late Dr. Seuss]
Frankensteinbeck
@Mnemosyne:
Quite Contrary on sales outsells Supervillain on sales. I got to #18 in the paid Amazon store once. It’s a very popular book, and indeed I’m proud of it. It doesn’t catch the eyeballs like Supervillain does, I think.
catclub
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
reminds me of Samson. He had big hair, too.
Fair Economist
@PatrickG: I think the late Dr. Seuss would be quite tickled with that if he were able to see it.
hovercraft
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
Why can’t the mean black man just bow down and acknowledge Trump’s greatness, if he’d only just take the shots from Trump and not fight back everything would be fine. But instead of showing everyone how superior Trump is, the stupid Kenyan Muslim loser keeps fighting back, and he does it so cuttingly and with a smile. Why must he keep making me look bad, dammit why do so many people say he’s cool and smart, right now the only person saying I’m cool and smart who is not on my payroll or related to me is Chris Matthews.
People said he got bigger cheers at the DNC than I got at the RNC, this is supposed to be my time to be idolized. It’s Just Not Fair!
SAD !!
NR
I think if Trump did drop out, his voters would abandon the GOP en masse. They would never believe he went willingly. And I don’t think the alt-right would have any problem sacrificing the Republican downballot, either. They already hate the GOP establishment with a passion anyway.
I think they’re stuck with Trump.
catclub
@Quinerly: Isn’t that the point? She has gone very quiet, with mostly local news coverage only, on purpose to let Trump shoot himself in all the media.
PatrickG
@Fair Economist:
Yes well, but he’d have written it better. :)
catclub
@NR:
Yep. If they did believe Trump went willingly – abandoning THEIR crusade, he would be in danger.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@hovercraft:
That is exactly what he thinks, but with the n word sprinkled about. That WHCD was the worst night of Trump’s life.
Just One More Canuck
@Frankensteinbeck: @Immanentize: agreed – the premise sounds like it could work
randy khan
@Denny Kolb:
To add to the list of examples, Joe Biden turned 30 between the election and his swearing-in as a Senator.
NR
@catclub: A ton of conspiracy theories would pop up overnight about how the Republican establishment threatened Trump’s family or something to get him to drop out. I honestly think that would be an even bigger disaster for the Republicans than what they’re facing now. But we’ve got three more months until the election so who knows.
Ben Cisco
@germy: That’s disappointing. We had (and I still have) a membership there. Time to jettison it.
patroclus
@? Martin: Yeah, but politics isn’t entirely demographics. I was born and raised in Texas and much of my family still lives there. The Democratic party is so disorganized there and the costs of becoming competitive there are so high and Clinton hasn’t even made motions about even starting to try to do that, that it is just inconceivable that it’ll flip. It will be a lot closer than usual, but all that means is a high single digits loss rather than the usual blowout. It’s not gonna happen, and other states, despite demographics, are better targets. Utah is quite possible especially given that a lot of Mormons just despise Trump and might make Johnson competitive enough that it’ll swing to Clinton. Same with Alaska – it’s predominantly Republican but not really Trump-kind of Republican. Even Indiana would flip before Texas.
Ben Cisco
@Peale: Were it possible, I’d give you a +1 for “sausage-brained pooh-bahs.”
Groucho48
They should offer Trump funding for the Trump News Network. Tell him how huge it would be and how influential. Guarantee it would beat Fox in the ratings because a waiting nation is yearning for just such a network. His kids could have their own shows. It could all be done from Trump Tower.
He could say a routine checkup found a heart murmur and his doctors insisted the rigorous campaign schedule was very risky.
I hear Ailes might be available to help manage.
Mary G
@dr. bloor: According to the article, suicide is suspected. I’m sorry for feeling so mean, but I just imagine him looking at at the polls and realizing that his life’s work of demonizing Hills has all been in vain, so there’s nothing to live for. I’m sorry for his family and friends.
The Republicans getting rid of Trump will never happen as it would be going from the frying pan to the fire. They’re probably sending him KFC and McDonald’s in hopes of inducing a heart attack.
tybee
@one_particular_harbour, fka Botsplainer:
here, there’s not a dry seat in the house.
J R in WV
@burnspbesq:
You are soooo good!
And sooo eviil, too.
Thanks for that picture!
boatboy_srq
It’s probably been said already, but Drop add Replace tRump has as much chance as Repeal and Replace PPACA did. For that gambit to work, the GOTea would need a reasonable candidate as replacement. They don’t have one.
GOTea candidates acceptable to the mainstream got trounced repeatedly in the primaries. Anyone not similarly b#tsh!t-crazy eked out single-digit ballot results. HEB?, Walker, Kasich and the rest are just plain insufficiently acceptable to the GOTea base, especially after tRump and Carson put the full-on cray-cray on display and got massive support for it.
Conversely, the only candidates likely to get a plurality in the general election are just as nuts as tRump. Cruz is the lawful evil to tRump’s chaotic evil; Fiorina and Ryan are marginal improvements at best; Carson is as likely to melt down; the list goes on.
There’s nobody the GOP VSPs will accept that’s palatable the base of the party. Dump and Replace is lovely language; the problem with it is that the GOTea needs a candidate that can rally the base and simultaneously appeal to “undecided” voters. There’s nobody in that position, and tRumpery has encouraged more wingnuts than usual to campaign (David Duke is just the most visible of those). This is not the cycle for the GOTea to pluck Teh Donald out of the race and expect anything but humiliation – for exactly the same reasons “repeal and replace” fails: for the gambit to work there has to be a reasonable replacement, and they just plain don’t have one – and all their options for a genuinely-selected one have been rejected already in the primary process.
boatboy_srq
@Mike in DC: Haven’t 7, 9 and 11 already happened?
J R in WV
@Ben Cisco:
AARP disposed of their relationship with ALEC the moment it became public knowledge. Maybe seconds before that, actually. That’s how quickly that happened.
Still hypocritical ?? Oh yeah! But MRs J’s supplemental Medigap health coverage is via AARP… so I’m glad they jettisoned ALEC so promptly.
sinnedbackwards
@dmsilev: My understanding is that if a dead, disabled or even resigned Trump’s electors (who are the real ones on the ballot) are chosen in North Carolina, they still convene in December to transmit their choices to the Congress. I cannot say what might be the likelihood that all states he might hypothetically win after defaulting or decamping would support the RNC’s replacement, but these are Republicans. Wouldn’t we expect our own elected electors to support a legitimately chosen replacement candidate? Talk me down anybody?
The only proper response is to keep working like we’re behind, and fight like hell for the House and Senate too.
Little Sonny's Bubbie
@Feathers: In case nobody else has suggested this: Maybe that’s why Trump ran in the first place. Maybe he didn’t expect to win but thought it would be a cool way to grift some big bucks from the rubes.