.
Politico, no doubt prepping for their big post-Labor-Day Amazing Trump Comeback!!! switcheroo:
Donald Trump and his new team think they have 71 days to turn this campaign around. They’re wrong…
Trump may not have that kind of time. Early voting begins in 26 days in Minnesota and in 32 other states soon after that. And already, as summer inches to its end, 90 percent of Americans say they’ve decided. For all the televised daily drama this race has provided, the final outcome itself is shaping up to be less dramatic than any presidential election since 1984.
“Kellyanne is good at this, but she’s got a very damaged candidate and it’s very late in the game,” said Tony Fratto, a GOP operative in Washington and former deputy press secretary to President George W. Bush. “I think it’s too late, in fact. I don’t believe he can change. All of this is trying to trick voters into thinking there is a better Donald Trump out there. There is no better Donald Trump.”
Although Trump has been seemingly slow to realize it, the more than $2 billion in free media he rode to the GOP nomination was simultaneously hardening the broader country’s negative view of Trump just as it was endearing him to the conservative base. The cascade of Trump-created controversies following the conventions that precipitated Conway’s hiring appear to have irrevocably damaged his credibility as a plausible commander in chief and could prove to be the turning point in the general election itself…
With the electoral map tipping so sharply in Clinton’s favor in the weeks following the two party conventions (her lead has widened beyond the margin of error in seven of 11 swing states), Trump’s new team is scrambling to stay afloat even with his robust campaign regimen that has him doing four times as many events as Clinton. Recent efforts to muddle the GOP nominee’s hard-line positions on immigration — catnip for conservative primary voters but repellent to many general election swing voters — and to couch them in softer language are part of an eleventh-hour effort to broaden his narrow appeal beyond older, mostly white men. Trump’s direct overtures to Hispanic and African-American voters last week were made with the same purpose…
Figuring out how to triage a presidential campaign when you’re bleeding in every swing state, all of which seem vital, is a difficult enough equation — and that’s without Trump spending time and resources last week in places that aren’t swing states at all. Trump sandwiched one rally in Tampa, Florida, between appearances in Texas and Mississippi, both solidly red states he’s unlikely to lose. And on Friday, his campaign announced a rally to be held Tuesday outside Seattle in Everett, Washington, home to a Boeing plant that ships planes overseas — a location that’s well suited for Trump to rail against global trade deals but makes no sense electorally…
The bigger Trump loses, the better for every other American. And if we can tie more down-ticket Repubs’ fates to his electoral anchor, better still.
Apart from renewing our GOTV efforts, what’s on the agenda for the start of another week?
satby
Moar moving! Thank heavens I don’t think I’m ever going to have to do this again!
P.S. Good morning, happy Monday.
Phylllis
New washer and dryer delivered this afternoon. And none to soon, as we didn’t plan this very well & have been without for about ten days. Down to the ‘wear as a last resort’ closet items.
Glaukopis in Ohio
@satby: my sympathies are with you. Just moved from California to Ohio, and in temporary digs now. Stressful but very glad I did it. It’s also helping to simplify my life a bit.
NorthLeft12
Starting week four of a kitchen reno. Never realized how much we would miss our dishwasher.
rikyrah
Good Morning ?, Everyone ?
rikyrah
@satby:
It will be over soon enough☺??
rikyrah
@NorthLeft12:
But, I am sure that you will love the new.one that.much more
??☺
Elmo
Headed to the airport for an absurdly early flight to the Second City. I love Chicago, but this is Trip No. 6 since July 8.
Charlotte
El Paso
Dallas
Louisville
Portland OR
Now Chicago.
I am very, very tired of my suitcase. But! Next week starts my first two-week vacation EVER. Headed to San Diego for part of it, for a week at the beach and my old stomping grounds.
I need it.
?BillinGlendaleCA
Mika thinks they need to get a shrink on the show to talk about Trump. The panel agrees he’s kind of nuts. I’m sure they’ll get to Hillary’s emails shortly.
OzarkHillbilly
Taking the day to do all the things I wasn’t able to do over the wkend ’cause Mrs Ozark monopolized all my time after being gone for 5 days. Sucks to be me ;-) I made her a pork tenderloin using Tim F’s recipe (it has ruined me, I can’t make one any other way it is so good) with chanterelles I picked out of one of my hollers. Thought I’d died and gone to heaven.
bystander
Moanin’ Joe is going after “Amnesty Don” hammer and tongs.
Glad I wasn’t the string of pearls around Chuck Todd’s neck when David Plouffe called Trump a psychopath
Waldo
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Mika, Joe and Donald need a sit down with Dr. Phil. I would uncut the cable to see that.
OzarkHillbilly
This morning in WTF: Man hurls Molotov cocktail into 70-year-old woman’s car as she’s driving to church
I got nothing.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Waldo: I walked by his studio last Monday.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym
Why would anyone think that a factory that sells something for export would be well suited for a speech opposed to global trade deals?
mike in dc
I do believe that a Softening of Trump’s support will happen, followed by a Widening of the gap in the polls. It won’t be more than 5 points of his supporters leaving him, but it will be accompanied by a few points of undecided voters moving clearly to Clinton. We’ll see it happening between now and the eve of the first debate.
msdc
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym: Beat me to it! Clearly, Trump has a great brain. The best.
OzarkHillbilly
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym: You caught that too, eh? That reporter is as much an idiot as Trump.
Wapiti
And why waste precious time campaigning in Washington State, which is solidly Democrat at the Presidential level?
Luthe
@NorthLeft12: It was the sink for us. We did a gut kitchen reno and washing dishes in the bathroom sink gets old very quickly.
May the contracting gods smile upon you and your reno be quick and easy.
OzarkHillbilly
@mike in dc: from the Guardian: Trump’s slump in Nascar country deepens Republican fears of defeat
Betty Cracker
The New York Post claims Anthony Weiner has been texting dick pix again and posts photographic evidence. If true, Jeebus, what a low-life piece of crap.
Mustang Bobby
I heard Trump supporters on NPR tell us that they support him even if they’re not sure of what his policies are. Hello, lemmings.
Oh, and yesterday they held a rally for Latino support in Anaheim under the title of “Operation Taco Bowl.” Seriously.
What’s next, “Operation Watermelon” in Watts to get out the black vote, or is that too on the nose?
MattF
@mike in dc: I’ve been thinking that too. Slow leakage, one R at a time realizing he/she can’t vote for Trump. At the same time, I see zero evidence of leakage from HRC.
Matt McIrvin
If I were a betting man, right now I’d buy Trump on the prediction markets. Not because I think he’ll actually win. But we’ve got enough time for at least one more big “the polls are narrowing and Trump might actually win” panic, the media desperately want one, and I think it’s starting. 538 and Linzer are talking about the convention bounce wearing off on the basis of national polls, and electoral-vote.com has Florida going to a tossup.
tobie
@Betty Cracker: please say it ain’t so. Otherwise it’s just too awful.
p.a.
Good Morning! Didn’t pay attention this weekend; any Trump horrors? (relative I know. He runs at 10; any 11+?). If not, prepare for a week of PIVOT/emails! (Thank FSM Benghaaazzziiiii is sinking under the waves)
Raven
Wtf-k
OzarkHillbilly
@Betty Cracker: Sounds like obsessive compulsive behavior to me. Seriously, the man appears to have an illness.
Matt McIrvin
@p.a.: Paul LePage’s more-Trump-than-Trump racist meltdown kind of knocked Trump’s embarrassments out of the spotlight.
bystander
@Betty Cracker: Yes, but clearly Hillary is covering for him so we should all discuss why Hillary is condoning Weiner’s behavior and making a living hell for the poor women on the receiving end of Weiner’s depravity.
amk
@Matt McIrvin: Glad Drew is back. Don’t know why he has CT, PA & VA as swing states where hillz is in clear lead. Guess too early to put them in dem column?
Anoniminous
Infotainment companies need a horse race to gather ye advertising dollars while they may. So a … HORSE! … RACE! … there shall be.
Central Planning
@NorthLeft12:
Truth! Ours was broken for FOUR MONTHS while the warranty company tried to fix the problems. That sucked with 5 kids. Never buy a KitchenAid dishwasher.
greennotGreen
Thank goodness for this Monday morning open thread! I thought today was Sunday.
Dmbeaster
Latest Trump outrage, which should get some play this week, is this.
Trump tweeted a pants on fire lying chart that has been sourced to nazi sympathizers which claims that 81% of murders of whites are committed by blacks. True figure is that more than 80% of murders of whites are committed by whites.
debbie
@Mustang Bobby:
That woman was laughing, knowing how ridiculous her statements of undying support were. What a country!
debbie
@Dmbeaster:
Dems need to call him on this immediately. I nominate Warren.
Davebo
@OzarkHillbilly:
OK, now I’m intrigued as I’ve wanted to do a tenderloin after a period of beef overload.
I’m going to give it a try this week. What kind of cream did you use? And how much water, a half inch or so?
Dmbeaster
Here is Politifacts pants on fire rating of the tweet.
Here is the sourcing of the chart tweeted by Trump to a neo-nazi
Matt McIrvin
@amk: Drew is being very hedge-y this year, in sharp contrast to last time when his model gave Obama the most unchanging and solid lead. Sam Wang seems to be sticking his neck out the most.
debbie
Breaking news from the Conservative World (via my FB): Megyn Kelly has been kicked off Fox for supporting Clinton.
opiejeanne
@Mustang Bobby: According to what I just read, only 100 showed up, only half were Hispanic, and most were not from Anaheim. The event was within walking distance of my previous house.
Considering how heavily Hispanic Anaheim* is that’s a pretty crappy turnout.
*52% according to the latest census
Iowa Old Lady
@Dmbeaster: Did he retweet that again? Because I think he first retweeted it a couple of months ago.
gene108
@Betty Cracker:
The New York Post is a Murdoch owned rag and is not always grounded in reporting the truth.
I’ll wait and see if actual news sources are reporting this before reacting.
Betty Cracker
@bystander: I have no doubt the incident will be used to shame Weiner’s wife and, by extension, her boss. It’s always the woman’s fault. And there will be much Beltway media speculation about the Clintons’ relationship, blah blah blah.
As for the recipient of Weiner’s text, if the NYP story is accurate (and lord knows that’s not a given), she willingly bantered with Weiner, whom she’s never met, via text and sent pictures of herself in her undies to him. She also told him she was a Trump supporter, and the idiotic Weiner never suspected their texts would eventually become public. Or maybe he did and this is a demented cry for help.
Joel
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym: Trump bought into the stupid media narrative about his working class support. It’s not true, and it’s sure as shit not true in a union town like Everett.
David ?▶️Hillary/Harley Quinn 2016▶️? Koch
Let’s not be so hard on Weiner.
TS
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
They spent 30 minutes on the Clinton Foundation and how terrible it was to do all this good work while Hillary was SoS. And terrible that a detailed diary of her days of SoS won’t be fully released until after the election. Did we EVER see a detailed diary from any other SoS?
NJDave
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym: Because only final assembly takes place in Washington state. A huge proportion of sub-assemblies are made ex-US. Boeing is also a case study for why this, taken to the extremes Boeing took, is a terrible idea. They’ve found that it’s impossible to stay on top of quality and deadlines with literally thousands of sub-contractors all over the world.
Dmbeaster
@Iowa Old Lady: You are right. I misread Digby.
debbie
@satby:
Good luck with the move. The only way to get through it is to believe it’s the last time. I’ve completed about five final moves, myself.
amk
@Matt McIrvin: This being his first post since 2014, I would cut him some slack. Anyhoo, the polls start having some ascending relevance from mid-september.
SFAW
@rikyrah:
I imagine you chose that style of phrasing for its ambiguity, but that wording has often been used by persons about to kill the person to whom they are speaking. (At least, in books and movies/TV, which of course are just like real life).
MattF
@debbie: Twitter says it’s false.
Baud
@TS: USA Today seems to have a daily anti-Clinton front page article.
TS
@Baud: Only reason she is not up by 20%. Got to have a horse race.
satby
@debbie: OMIGOD, five?
Baud
@TS: I doubt if the GOP were the clear front runner, the media would be trying to tear him down to promote the horse race. Hopefully, we’ll never test that theory.
OzarkHillbilly
@Davebo: I use half and half, about a 1/4″, and skip the water all together. Also I don’t salt the meat as most bullions have more than enough for me. As Tim said, the main thing is the low temps. Slow cooking keeps it tender. It is so good, and so simple, that everytime I think I am going to make one another way, I just can’t.
Iowa Old Lady
@Dmbeaster: It’s easy to get lost in the flood of Trump crud.
OzarkHillbilly
@NJDave: Ah. Now it makes more sense
Matt McIrvin
@Iowa Old Lady: Say one racist thing and it ruins your campaign. Say 1,000 racist things and they stop really hurting you after a while; it just becomes your brand.
Iowa Old Lady
@Matt McIrvin: That is so true. “Macaca” seems quaint.
SFAW
Apropos of nothing in particular: a belated Happy Birthday (so to speak) for Jacob Kurtzberg, who would have been 99 years old yesterday.
Mr. Kurtzberg was also known as Jack Kirby.
[I wonder why he changed his name? Maybe Deadbeat Donnie has an opinion. ]
SFAW
@Davebo:
Unpossible, you goddam commie. This is ‘Murika!
The Thin Black Duke
@SFAW: Thank you. As a hard-core comic fanboy, Jack Kirby was an integral chapter of my childhood. Excelsior!
Joel
@Matt McIrvin: I was perusing the predict wise odds; the markets have too much confidence in state results and too little in national results. Meaning there’s a middle bet to be played somehow, if that’s your interest. I’m no bettor and I would hate to deal with all the legal hassle anyways.
Jeffro
@The Thin Black Duke:
Seconded here – thanks SFAW!
craigie
@mike in dc:
Maybe. But what I would like to see starting after Labor Day is Clinton running ads and generally trying to convince people to vote for her instead of against Trump (or not at all). I think she could get a couple of percentage points that way, people who right now think “Crap, I hate them both” could realize that she’s actually going to be an excellent President and be happy to vote for her.
It would be another way to help run up the score, and give her a bit more momentum before she hits the brick wall that will be the GOP on Nov 9.
gene108
@SFAW:
Happy belated birthday Jack!
Spider-Man Spider-Man does whatever Jack Kirby wants him to do because Jack Kirby is awesome.
Kay
@Matt McIrvin:
I talked to two canvassers Sunday and they think it still feels mushy- they’re still hearing that Trump is a great businessman (which may be the single biggest lie of this campaign). One of the canvassers is this older guy who may as well be a pro he has done this so many times. I don’t know what lists they’re using, whether they’re including independents or what. OTOH they said Democrats are really solid and that was the source of much handwringing a month ago.
amk
donnie dick’s base ain’t so bright.
raven
@Kay: And I get constant hysterical emails from the Hillary campaign, “OMG, WE ARE SO FUCKED. Not another dime when they do that shit.
SFAW
@amk:
Well, they do seem to gravitate to grifters.
SFAW
@raven:
I especially like the ones from Bold Democrats (I think), saying something like “Why does SFAW hate Hillary and is voting for Trump?” when I don’t respond to their idiotic surveys. Way to piss off your (former) friends, morons!
Kay
@raven:
I agree on the hysteria. I also think money can only do so much. These two canvassers were volunteers. It’s pretty cut and dried. The goal would be 8k Hillary voters in this county. They just try to limit the damage in conservative counties, but every little bit really does help. She can run hundreds of ads in Ohio and they still have to find and contact 8k voters in this county.
magurakurin
@raven: I don’t read them. I just send more money when I can. I want her to win and Trump to lose. The emails don’t mean shit to me. They need money. I give what I can, when I can. Just gave 50 more dollars yesterday.
Kay
@raven:
I only get upset if I think they’re doing a bad job. If I think they’re doing a good job then it’s just up to voters and I don’t control what they do. I think Clinton is doing a good job so I’m fatalistic. She can only do so much.
amk
@magurakurin: Yup. One could always unsubscribe from the emails.
mike in dc
@craigie: Yeah, I’m sure they focus group every policy idea, so they might as well run ads promoting what are likely to be her most popular policy proposals. The student loan debt relief, tuition free public college, minimum wage increase and infrastructure spending are all likely to be pretty appealing to working class and middle income Americans.
SFAW
@amk:
What?!?!?!? And deprive us of our FSM-given right to complain/whine pointlessly? (Myself included, by the way.)
amk
@Kay: Are her ads effective in OH?
OzarkHillbilly
@amk: How does one do that?
Ben Cisco
Heading back into work feeling pretty relaxed after a pretty good weekend. Caught Chris Stranding in concert on Saturday.
O. Felix Culpa
@Betty Cracker:
Sounds like compulsive/addictive behavior to me. Creepy nonetheless. And sad.
ETA: Ozark got there ahead of me. That’s what happens when you’re a timezone and a cup of coffee behind.
amk
@OzarkHillbilly: Don’t the e-mails have the minutest possible ‘unsubscribe’ button somewhere?
PsiFighter37
@Betty Cracker: What a goddamn idiot. If Huma stays with him after this, one really wonders what the hell is going on with their marriage.
Weiner is a fucking idiot. Anything / everything will be made public in this day and age.
magurakurin
@amk:
Kay
@amk:
They are. They’re good ads. I’m probably the target audience for one of them- where the kids are listening to Trump’s hatefulness- and it upset me a little. It’s awful, what he says.
Trump’s on the other hand are dull. They’re generic.
Clinton has one ad that uses “she” over and over. It got my attention. I wonder of it’s deliberate ” she will do this, she will do that” almost a list. Of course it could just be because I’m not using to hearing “she” in a Prez campaign :)
OzarkHillbilly
@amk: I don’t know, I never read them because when I donate I always use my old defunct but still working e-mail address. ;-)
magurakurin
@PsiFighter37: made public when the Post deems it fit to do so. This “scandal” is from last year. Funny they are telling us now. I guess they just found out…wink wink…say no more….
NorthLeft12
@rikyrah: Actually, we are reusing the appliances [except the microwave which is getting mounted over the stove] its just that when the kitchen was demolished, everything had to be moved out, and the stove and dishwasher are now sitting in the garage. The fridge is in the living room, plugged in and operating fine.
We are barbecuing most food, and using our camp stove and electric skillet for other stuff.
MattF
@SFAW: FWIW, I contributed to Hilz and the ensuing flood of email all went into my gmail spam filter– and when I eventually found them there, I unsubscribed. And that worked. So, we shall see.
OzarkHillbilly
RNC pulls worst fundraising numbers in recent years
Eric U.
@amk: I just set up a filter to send political emails to a folder, and it’s no problem to delete them.
Far prefer a flurry of emails to the constant fundraising calls. That pisses me off on any number of levels
MattF
@OzarkHillbilly: Only surprise is that the RNC 1) lent Trump money and 2) he paid them back.
amk
@magurakurin: There you go. It’s a well written e-mail, btw.
amk
@Kay: Glad she is not blowing away the money on useless ads. I am a bit worried that she is spending a bit too much on ads.
NorthLeft12
Read this today from Ryan Lizza in the New Yorker;
I am a little surprised that this is a surprise to anyone. One of the most quotable Americans ever, got it right one hundred and fifty years ago…….
Mark Twain
Although in my opinion, there are people who are open and tolerant and welcoming even though they have not travelled widely, or at all. Its just harder.
Immanentize
@OzarkHillbilly: Bey Ozark! This Molotov story sounds completely fabricated. Down to the “I stopped her from going back for her bible.” Race of victim? Race of assailants? Molotov explodes in her car while she is driving and she is unhurt? Hmm. My spidey sense is tingly.
Kay
@amk:
I think the Clinton ad with Trump being so brutal to the handicapped reporter is effective because he’s old-fashioned. The truth is that isn’t liberal or conservative. No one talks like that anymore. Not in the workplace, not anywhere. That kind of “humor” is a decade out of date. For me it goes to his privilege that he doesn’t know that. He never HAD to pick up on social cues and “norms” and that’s a position of privilege. It’s a special exception that very few people get.
I’m in a book club. 8 of the 10 members are Republicans. Not one of them would approve of that. The world changed, for the better.
Kay
@amk:
It’s different than GOP ad blitzes though because those are from various groups. This is a strategy. They have the same tight control that Obama had over the campaign. The focus matters. Democrats didn’t have it in ’04. There were all these groups saying different things and it was just a big mess.
amk
@NorthLeft12: We call them the frogs in a well. They live and croak there.
debit
Morning everyone. Walter continues to be awesome. We had steak and eggs this morning for breakfast and he and Ellie split the left overs; Walter took each bite with a soft mouth. He’s so sweet and gentle. He’s seeing my vet this afternoon for a once over and so I can establish any prescriptions he might need. I can’t wait; Dr. Barb is going to love him.
OzarkHillbilly
@Immanentize: Read the article. again. That should scratch the itch.
germy
Re: Anthony Weiner: How long before the NYpOst’s favorite candidate makes this a “Hillary’s poor judgement” issue?
He’s always annoyed me. I remember seeing a video where he entered a bagel shop (for a photo op?) and women were behind the counter making bagels and cleaning up. Activity stopped briefly while he made his grand entrance. Then in a loud voice he commanded the bagel shop employees “Get back to work, ladies!”
He reminded me of every entitled, douchebag prick small-business boss I’ve ever seen.
JMG
To repeat myself. You can’t understand this election without trying to grasp why Clinton is unpopular, because it is a fact that she is. Much of it is old-fashioned sexism, but I think a lot of it is that she has the identity of Career Politician, a stock villain in the American psychodrama. Citizen Plain Businessman Ready to Save the Republic With Common Sense is a stock hero in our wealth-worshiping society. If Trump wasn’t so obviously insane and horrible even when sane, he’d be 20 points ahead in the polls. So I wouldn’t count on Clinton winning by more than Obama’s margin over Romney.
SFAW
@debit:
Did Walter let you have any?
raven
@debit: big ole sweet pup!
OzarkHillbilly
@Immanentize: Think of it as an escalation of the ‘knockout game’.
debit
@SFAW: He was so good. Most dogs would beg, but he just sat to the side and waited.
@raven: He really is a doll.
SFAW
@JMG:
And yet, interestingly enough, her negatives were significantly lower until around two years ago. Now, what could have happened two years ago that turned her into the evil, shrieking harpy (in the eyes of the electorate)? Maybe it was that she confessed to kidnapping the Lindbergh baby? No, that doesn’t fall within that timeframe. Was it her murder of Vince Foster? No, same thing, wrong timeframe.
Hmmm … thinking … what ever could it be?
ETA: And when I become God-Emperor of this country, those treasonous motherfuckers that run the Rethug Partei will end up in “a spot of a bother,” so to speak.
SFAW
@debit:
I’m glad you and he “found” each other.
Thanks,
ObamaCole!Betty Cracker
@magurakurin: According to TPM, the photo on the front page of the NYP is from 2015, but Weiner was texting the woman as recently as last month. Just unbelievably stupid and self-destructive if true, and given that he destroyed his own career twice like this, I tend to believe the story, even if it is being published by a Murdoch rag.
amk
@JMG: Lot of hypothetical concern trolling there.
Immanentize
@OzarkHillbilly: I know. But but. They don’t identify the 70 year old woman, only politicians are involved. It is clear the assailants are black (and from across the border — Illinois) but still. A Sunday morning picnic at a Catholic church? The whole thing doesn’t track. It sounds like Susan Smith or Charles Stewart reporting to me….
MomSense
@debit:
Walter is a pro! My dearly departed lab was also quite skilled in the art of not-begging begging. You are in good paws with Sir Walter. He will make offering him a treat he seemingly did not want so enjoyable for you that you will delight in offering him treats. He will ever be the most grateful recipient.
OzarkHillbilly
@Immanentize: One more thing, I don’t know why the Post Disgrace no longer identifies the race of accused criminals, even when the police are asking for help in solving crime (shrug) but the attacker was almost certainly black (he had braids) and the victim was almost certainly black as well (a 70 yr old woman in that neighborhood going to church, not very likely to be white).
Immanentize
@debit: This is such a great ending to such a heartbreaking start. Thank you, debit (and Cole!)
SenyorDave
@JMG: If Trump wasn’t so obviously insane and horrible even when sane, he’d be 20 points ahead in the polls.
MY friends think I’m nuts when I say things like this, but I agree completely with you. If Trump just acted like a sane person, he could play the businessman to the rescue narrative and he would be hard to stop. The media would be totally behind him, he’d be getting 99% of the Republicans and a huge portion of the independents. Thank God he’s such a horrible candidate and either isn’t bright enough to know he just had to play it cool, or that he’s just plain nuts and couldn’t control himself.
Immanentize
@OzarkHillbilly: I don’t know the neighborhoods. Just an odd tale. I sure hope this version of the game, if game it is, does not spread….
magurakurin
@JMG:
I’ll take it. As long as she wins. Even is she wins 50 states she won’t be given a mandate. I’m putting my money on 347 with her taking NC. The absolute best she can do I think is 414 and that is a dream number with her taking IN, MO, SC, GA, UT, AZ and MT.
raven
@SenyorDave: And if Hillary was Joe Biden she’d be up by 50 points. So what?
magurakurin
@Betty Cracker: not defending Weiner, he’s been dead to me since the first time. But still questioning why we are hearing about this only now.
Matt McIrvin
@Joel: I think Trump’s actual chance of winning at this point is very low, like Sam Wang-low. But I also think the chance of a supra-Obama Clinton landslide is very low; in the end this is going to be more like 2012 than anything else, and we’ll have some media rollercoaster moments in the last couple of months.
SFAW
@raven:
But but but Neil Kinnock!
How’s your recovery progressing, by the way?
SFAW
@Matt McIrvin:
Won’t be for lack of trying on their part(s).
Elizabelle
In Florida. Very effective Hillary ad here, wondering why Trump’s products are not made in the US.
I am sick of the MSM and their harping on Hillary’s unlikeability, untrustworthiness, the Clinton Foundation appearance of impropriety (shame on Hillary), the fucking emails.
They’re driving this. Although I wonder if any of it is backfiring and propelling Hillary voters ever more to the polls. Think this will be another year where the wired for Republicans media complex is behind the public on attitudes.
But it’s frightening.
satby
@magurakurin: probably because nothing else was getting any real traction against Clinton, but if this blows up it could deprive her of a trusted aide.
glory b
@Matt McIrvin: Heard this morning on cbs (getting ready for work, didn’t see who was speaking) that Hillary is sooooo unpopular, and that number just keeps creeping up. Anyone else see that one?
SiubhanDuinne
@OzarkHillbilly:
@Immanentize:
Not to mention that the apparently self-appointed spokeswoman about the incident and the guy who offered assistance (and kept her from going back for her bible) both just happened to be officials from the Second Ward. Is it some kind of ploy to make him look like a hero in a tight election race or something? I agree, the whole thing seems very unlikely.
OzarkHillbilly
@Immanentize:
It’s the Post Disgrace, a sad excuse for a newspaper. I’ve been reading it so long I’ve just accepted their shoddy reporting. I kind of doubt she was going to the Catholic Church picnic (possible, but in my experience most Catholics don’t carry their Bibles with them, that’s the kind of thing Baptists do) it just happened near it. The PD rarely identifies victims in first run reporting, a follow up article may or may not identify her (I would hope not- that could open her up to intimidation from the perps before charges even get filed) As to the 2 politicians- one interviewed, the other a rescuer- the only surprising thing to me is that her rescuer did NOT want to be interviewed (being a lowly ward committeeman he may have decided to let Flowers get the press) That Flowers was at the church picnic is sort of a “of course she was” thing, and the way the article is written it is clear to me that she did NOT witness it but is just relaying what she was told of it. As to the molotov cocktail “exploding” in the car and the old lady escaping unhurt, at first that sounded wrong to me too, but looking at the car it becomes obvious there was no “explosion” at all, just typical PD hyperbole, instead just a ‘whoosh’. It may seem strange that she could get out unhurt, but I have seen far stranger.
raven
@SFAW: Good, back at work. Walked the dogs a couple of miles this morning. I can’t swim until next week and I’m sure adhering to the “no lifting” limit for 6 weeks will be a challenge. thx
glory b
@Elizabelle: I find it scary too. Trump hates the media, why even do this? One the one hand, they say that the public has email scandal fatigue (no one mentions that they’ve been on this for the last 18 months, with nothing, Jason Chaffetz says the next batch have to be the smoking gun!), on the other hand, they say that this just feeds into the upward ticking numbers of Americans who find her untrustworthy.
SFAW
@raven:
Glad to hear it. i feel your pain re: the no-lifting thing.
But be careful if you go swimming in the ocean — those Gulf waters can be treacherous!
Iowa Old Lady
@glory b: Has there been recent polling on likeability? I wondered if the numbers had changed.
Juju
@NorthLeft12: paper plates are your friend.
hovercraft
It seems that something has upset the Donald this morning. He’s gotten a hold of his phone again.
raven
@SFAW: I won’t be going down there until November, I will start back at the Y next weeks with my laps.
NorthLeft12
@Luthe: Yes, my wife does it in the bathroom sink, and I do it in the bathtub. We use a plastic container [our camping sink] to wash the dishes, then rinse them in the sink/bathtub.
I use the bathtub as I also set up a dish rack to let the stuff drip dry. My wife can’t do that as she is still bothered by bad knees.
OzarkHillbilly
@SiubhanDuinne:
He is a ward committee man, one of the faceless doing the thankless unpaid but time consuming work that very few volunteer for and those who do, do it for the hope of a future career in politics.
As to any tight elections, we just had the primaries, there are no Republicans running for anything in STL.
NorthLeft12
@Juju: We discussed this briefly, but don’t like the waste. Eight weeks or so of paper plates is too much IMO.
SFAW
@hovercraft:
I am SO tired of seeing that “Crooked Hillary” bullshit. In a rational country, 90 percent of the electorate would say to Deadbeat Donnie, “What are you, a goddam seven year old? Grow the fuck up, already.”
On the other hand, I would dearly love it if someone were to start tweeting about “Deadbeat Donald Trump” or “Tax Dodger Donald Trump” or “Putin Apologist Donald Trump” or “Failed Businessman Donald Trump” every fucking hour. It would drive him around the bend, especially the “Failed Businessman” thing, I bet. Only question is: who would be the best person to do that?
NorthLeft12
@MomSense: It must be in the genes. Both of my Labs [one yellow, one chocolate] both just sit and wait. Although Gus [my current Lab and chocolate] will start drooling if you hold any food out to him. He also will tap you with a paw if his breakfast or dinner is late.
hovercraft
@Iowa Old Lady:
This is from last weeks Quinnipiac poll
amk
@SFAW: the fucking media pushed ‘pivot’ never came.
SFAW
@amk:
It’ll be here before we know it — even if he doesn’t, the MSM will say there is, and do so until 11/8/16.
OzarkHillbilly
@NorthLeft12: Same here.
Immanentize
@NorthLeft12: I know this is too late for anyone who has had or is going through a kitchen remodel — but we did our about 3 years ago and it lasted 4 months (there was a build out for about 40 sq ft. Our contractor put up a temporary kitchen in our dining room. We had a sink which he ran through a floor vent and we bought an apartment size electric stove. This saved us — especially the dish washing. I even cooked Thanksgiving dinner in that little shitbox. But no dishwasher :-(
Matt McIrvin
@glory b: Oh, constantly, but it’s actually not true: Clinton was gradually getting more unpopular until the Democratic convention, then her unfavorability dropped about one point and stabilized. Any motion in August has been imperceptible to the eye.
I think a thing that freaks people out is that they look at the little thumbnail on the Huffington Post site that seems to show a steep rise in unfavorability, but it’s because the chart covers six and a half years, whereas the one from Trump covers a little over one year.
rikyrah
@OzarkHillbilly:
HUH?
A 70 year old woman?
hovercraft
@SFAW:
That would have the media lamenting that she has descended to his level, and we expect better from her. The both siderism is beyond out of control, all weekend they kept saying that both sides had dragged the discourse into the gutter. Fortunately the public seems to be holding him more accountable than her. Unfortunately the constant she’s not honest and trustworthy is having an impact. But at the end of the day people are choosing the ‘liar’ over the crazy person so there’s that.
We’re back to the Hobbsian choice from back in the day in Louisiana, “Vote for the Crook it’s Important.”
@Iowa Old Lady:
Here’s the link to the Q poll.
Matt McIrvin
@hovercraft: I think the “alt-right” speech may have actually played poorly, because a simple statement of the facts in the case sounds hysterically crazy, like she’s flinging around wild McCarthyite accusations.
SiubhanDuinne
@OzarkHillbilly:
Okay. I don’t pretend to know the different levels of city officialdom in St. Louis. But it seems almost beyond credulity that there would be two separate officials right there on the scene. Not impossible, because few things are, but highly unlikely.
hovercraft
@SFAW:
I think try as they might, Donald can’t help being Donald. They’re trying their best but he keeps shi**ng all over their narrative, that he’s changing. The media is all but begging, “please let us help you, we don’t want Hillary, she’s boring and she hates us.”
MomSense
@NorthLeft12:
At the end of his life when he slept about 23 out of 24 hours every day, he would always wake up at 6:58 a.m. and 4:58 p.m. and stand next to his food bowl with a “what is taking you so long” look.
Immanentize
@SiubhanDuinne: @OzarkHillbilly: OK. On last incredulity on my part — that is one pretty sweet ride for a 70 year old driving to church AND the picture makes it clear that the hood was pried open (look at the V break in the hood.) That looks like a plain old car engine fire to me rather than an incendiary device attack.
But we will probably never know.
Steeplejack
@Dmbeaster:
Er, that tweet was from last November.
Juju
@Betty Cracker: I looked at the picture with the child, and that does not look like a four year old to me. I could be mistaken, but the child looks more like a two or three year old. The child is almost five now.
hovercraft
@Matt McIrvin:
I’m not sure, but when even the likes of Morning Joe and his merry band of sycophants are in agreement that it was her most effective speech to date, I’m inclined to think it was effective. They posited that the speech will be her equivalent of Obama’s Race speech in Philly after the Rev. Wright blow up in 2008. The coverage of it I saw was very positive, and they kept emphasizing that she didn’t even need to embellish anything because his words and deeds were devastating enough. The too negative bs came from the commentators lamenting the tone of the campaign.
Calouste
@Dmbeaster: Also note that the image mentions San Francisco. About 1/3 of the population of San Francisco is Asian, and they are apparently neither victims nor perpetrators of murders.
amk
@Matt McIrvin: Nonsense. She just said what he said and is still saying. While the rethugs establishment were being cowards, she spoke the truth. 3rd rate media ‘perception’ is not reality.
SFAW
@hovercraft:
Yes, I understand that. I just think they’ll keep pushing the “pivot” thing until after the election. Would be quite happy to be wrong.
Shana
@debbie: My philosophy for moving is to remember that military families do it all the time and that my rare moves are nothing by comparison. Most of the time it’s helped.
SFAW
@hovercraft:
I’m assuming it would be someone like LOLGOP, but with a larger following. Katy Perry, Taylor Swift, Jimmy Fallon, LeBron, Bill Gates all have more than 30M followers. [I guess not too many of those are “someone like LOLGOP.” Still …] They’re not generally associated (directly) with Hillary’s campaign.
I was also going to suggest Alicia Keys, but I’d rather follow her in a different (non-stalking) way.
NorthLeft12
@Immanentize: We converted a spare bedroom next to the kitchen into a storage and prep area and small appliance [microwave, kettle, coffee maker, electric skillet] area. It’s working out pretty well.
NorthLeft12
@MomSense: Yes, Labs have a very accurate internal clock. Gus gets two spoons of plain yogurt every night at 7:30, and if you are late he really lets me know [nose poke in the upper leg or side]. His clock also knows when it is time for a walk [4:00 PM] right after work.
They are amazing and amazingly lovable beings.
NorthLeft12
@hovercraft: It was not one of those rousing or emotional speeches, but it was measured, precise and devastating regarding Trump’s actions and words, and also for the questions it asked of long time Republicans regarding their party and their principles.
I especially liked how she named names and used examples of other Republicans doing the “right thing”.
Ruckus
I did phone banking yesterday and sitting next to me was a gentleman who stated he was a republican but we had to get rid of Trump. Another was a woman who said she had not voted in years as she didn’t believe in the system, it is broken but we can not elect Trump. So not only voting against him but actively helping Clinton. That’s two of the five people I spoke with. Now this is CA which is pretty much royal blue now but the republican party is not dead here. Some of the people I work with would normally vote republican without hesitation but they are questioning doing that now. Many remarks using the word buffoon or some such. I wonder if they will vote at all. I’m playing the long game and letting them see how ridiculous he is and waiting for questions. It seems a better ploy than any other, wait for their defensive/combative attitude to be destroyed by Trump and then just answer questions if they have them. Maybe we can turn some rather than just get them out of the way.
JR in WV
@mike in dc:
I’ve always thought that making all those education loans either interest-free or setting their interest equal to the rate the Fed pays in interest (currently, what, -0.01% or something like that?) would make a huge difference to those debtors.
Mrs J had a small private bank loan when she graduated, no government involved. It was low interest because a student interest rate and we paid it off easily because we didn’t have to make payments larger than the interest rate charges being added to the principal.
Federal loans to individuals shouldn’t have interest, why should the government make money off of aid to citizens?
MomSense
@NorthLeft12:
My dog now is soooooooo high maintenance compared to my labs. I love her to pieces but she definitely didn’t get the laid back lab genes. When she sees me get out of the car her vicious attack barking turns to whole body wiggling and wagging. It’s completely adorable but as soon as I come in the door she tries to steal something of mine and hold it ransom for cheese. Since I started walking in empty handed she decided to try and steal my shirt with me still in it. It really is incredible. Now I think I will have to pick up cheese on the way home for peace offerings.
Ruckus
@satby:
I’ve done 3 long distance moves and several across town. And I live in a big town. (LA) It’s a pain in the ass is what it is but I also find it refreshing and an adventure, in a looking for a new challenge kind of way. OK most of them have been refreshing.
SFAW
@MomSense:
Or a live lobster, to put some fear into her. Well, maybe not fear, but confusion certainly. (You’re still in Maine, right? You had said something once about moving, but I don’t recall seeing anything since.)
Daddio7
@Mustang Bobby: OK, one more time, to conservatives, any Republican candidate is better than the best Democratic candidate. There was a three way race for the Republican race and the two losers split 60% of the vote. There should have been another vote between the two with the most votes. For God’s sake, why do you want a more electable Republican candidate?
JR in WV
@NorthLeft12:
Paper plates cut down the load on the bathroom sink a lot. We got those wicker plate holders, makes it pretty nice when the kitchen is out of commission.
Matt McIrvin
@Iowa Old Lady:
Yes, but the numbers haven’t changed. They became slightly more favorable for Clinton during the DNC and have been stable since then. Her favorability slide was always pretty slow on the time scale of the presidential campaign but I think it’s at a halt now. Trump’s numbers go up and down more, though he’s always very disliked.
JR in WV
@NorthLeft12:
Ours lay their heads on our knees while we eat, but they really don’t disturb us at all, they just want to be sure we don’t forget they’re down there waiting patiently for their dinner.
Plus they really enjoy the smell, and there is the occasional little spilled bit of something they really shouldn’t have but which is delicious in a 1 gram size. So win-win for them. They are SO sweet.
MomSense
@SFAW:
Still heah! She has met lobstahs and is quite fascinated by them. Poor things had rubber bands around their claws so the meet and greet was probably much scarier for them.
Matt McIrvin
@glory b:
Drama gets clicks and eyeballs. If the presidential race is boring, people tune out.
SFAW
@MomSense:
More political correctness gone wild! I’m gonna complain to Gov LePage about that!
Assuming he isn’t out-and-about, gunning for Drew Gattine. (Of course, if he goes looking for trouble in Westbrook, he better hope he doesn’t get thrown into the mill’s smokestack — from either end)
ETA. I forgot to include “Ayuh.” Blows my Maine cred all to hell. Merde!
Grumpy Code Monkey
@debbie:
Via Ars Technica: Facebook fires human editors, algorithm immediately posts fake news
Short version – Ignore the “Trending” feature on Facebook (at least if you’re interested in actual, happening-in-the-real-world news).
debbie
@Grumpy Code Monkey:
I’m not surprised it wasn’t true, but the number of comments and the intensity of their vitriol was enough to make me think it might be true.