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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / Early Morning WTF Open Thread: With Donald Trump, It Can Always Get Weirder

Early Morning WTF Open Thread: With Donald Trump, It Can Always Get Weirder

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Epic fiction may be the only way to get a proper handle on the dumpster fire behind the fertilizer plant that is Donald Trump’s presidential campaign. Gonna be a long day for political reporters, this Wednesday.

As of right now (pre-dawn), my best guess is that Trump’s handlers are using this last-minute visit as an excuse for Trump to put off/cancel his big Phoenix Immigration Pivot(tm) Speech, because he can’t do morning fundraisers in Los Angeles, jet down to Mexico City, meet with Presidente Nieto, and get to Phoenix in time for prime-time news coverage.

Josh Marshall has what seems like the most sensible take — “Can Trump Be This Stupid? Not A Trick Question”:

… It’s a general rule of politics not to enter into unpredictable situations or cede control of an event or happening to someone who wants to hurt you. President Nieto definitely does not want Donald Trump to become President. He probably assumes he won’t become president, simply by reading the polls. President Nieto is himself quite unpopular at the moment. But no one is more unpopular than Donald Trump. Trump is reviled. Toadying to Trump would be extremely bad politics; standing up to him, good politics…

Remember that the central force of Trump’s political brand is dominance politics. Trump commands, people obey. Trump strikes, victims suffer. It will be extremely difficult for him to manage anything like this in the Mexican capital. He comes with a weak hand, no leverage and the look of a loser. All Peña Nieto needs to say is no.

Again, when you’re in a campaign under constant scrutiny you do your best to control every situation, reduce the risk of unpredictable, embarrassing or damaging events. You try not to cede control to others. You especially try not to cede near total control to someone who has every interest in the world in harming you. The maximal version of that ‘big thing you’re not supposed to do’ is precisely what it looks like Trump is doing.

Trump’s Razor helps here. It’s tempting to assume that there’s some angle Trump has here, some plan or understanding with Peña Nieto to make this not as silly a decision as it appears to be. I’m tempted because how could they think this was a good idea? Trump’s Razor tells us to resist this temptation. “The stupidest scenario possible that can be reconciled with the available facts.” I think that’s what we have here. It’s as stupid as it looks. Who knows? Maybe Trump will handle this deftly and it’ll be a huge success. But Trump’s Razor has yet to fail me. So I’m going to stick with it.

Proper planning prevents poor performance…

But what of the inviter?

Surely Mr. Trump has a clever plan…

Count on Our Elite Media to treat this visit with the seriousness it deserves…

Some of Trump’s followers are very impressed…

Back to the (intentional) fiction…

Reader Interactions

75Comments

  4. 4.

    Keith G

    Well, at least if things go to plan, later today there will actually be a slight chance that policy and not personality will be a center of discussion.

    I sort of hate the fact that this campaign may boil down to a referendum on Trump’s fragile psychology and not a full consideration of what the rest of the Republican Party wants to do to this country.

  7. 7.

    shomi

    Remember that the central force of Trump’s political brand is dominance politics.

    Oh for fucks sakes….lol. MSM makes me want to guzzle antifreeze. Trying to paint the drumpster fire as an idiot savant rather than just an idiot.

    dominance politics….lol. Is that the new politically correct media term for thin skinned ego driven small fingered idiot school yard bully with no political experience who doesn’t know what he is doing.

  8. 8.

    Jeff

    Had a political phone survey last night. Asked to participate. Asked how long it would take. Was told twelve minutes. The tone was decidedly right wing. The questions very leading and anti Hillary. One question when I said I wouldn’t vote for Trump was why? My reply was “He’s an asshole.” The guy doing the survey was laughing as he typed it in. It was only a job for him. At one point I did say this was obviously a rightwing poll as the questions were so leading. No wonder right wingers don’t understand why their polling isn’t correct.

  9. 9.

    Mustang Bobby

    Maybe Trump’s plane will develop engine troubles and have to land in Nogales and strand him in the middle of the Sonora desert…and he drinks the water and gets a gnarly case of Hershey-squirts.

  13. 13.

    Viva BrisVegas

    @Baud:

    I wonder if Trump and Nieto will have tacos for dinner.

    Only if they are imported from the Trump Tower Grill.

  14. 14.

    Betty Cracker

    @shomi: Marshall is saying the exact opposite of what you think he’s saying, and in plain English too. Maybe you should lay off the anti-freeze.

  15. 15.

    amk

    Has the msm called donnnie dick a maverick yet? Or mcangry has killed that meme for ever along the “POW” ?

  16. 16.

    John D.

    @shomi: Dude, stop. Just stop.

    Not only are you misreading John Marshall’s text about as badly as it is possible to read it, but Josh Marshall is TPM — purely online media, not MSM *at all*.

    Trump’s entire brand is dominance politics. He doesn’t even attempt to win through logic, persuasion, or rational argument. He bullies people into submission, period. I have no idea what you think is meant by the term, but maybe educate yourself in the future before popping off?

  17. 17.

    JGabriel

    @Keith G:

    I sort of hate the fact that this campaign may boil down to a referendum on Trump’s fragile psychology and not a full consideration of what the rest of the Republican Party wants to do to this country.

    I’m ambivalent on that dichotomy, as I’m not sure there’s a significant or meaningful difference between a referendum on Trump’s fragile psychology and a full consideration of what the rest of the Republican Party wants to do to this country.

    After all, it was the rest of the Republican Party, or at least a plurality of it, that nominated him.

  18. 18.

    OzarkHillbilly

    Maybe a cartel will kidnap them all off the tarmac 5 mins after landing, hold them hostage for billions of dollars. Of course no one will pay. So eventually they will drop the demand to millions. Still nobody will pay. A couple hundred K$? Nope. Eventually they will be dumped in a Juarez alley and have to walk to the bridge. Of course, they’ll never get there, because they will have to ask directions. But they don’t speak Spanish. And even if they did make themselves understood, the answer would always be the same: “Dos la calle, derecha.”

    (long time joke amongst cavers in Mexico: Asking directions is pointless. The locals are never sure just exactly what you want either because your Spanish is horrible or because they can’t figure out why in Gawds name would you want to go there, but they are WAY too polite to say “WTF, gringo?” and just reply with some variation of “Go 2 blocks and take a right.” figuring maybe somebody there can figure out what the hell this pinche gringo wants.)

  20. 20.

    Unknown known (formerly known as Ecks, former formerly completely unknown)

    @Betty Cracker: Yep, exactly.

    “Dominance politics” is all about playing the alpha dog to impress the proles. It worked in the R primary, a little bit because his opponents share too much of the crazy to call him on it, but mostly because a large chunk of the Republican base see politics as, essentially, pro wrestling (R’s are the face, D’s are the heel, and their job is to lustily scream “yay” and “boo”, and “hit her with the chair!”, and to roar with pleasure when the nominal ‘bad guy’ finally gets their face humiliatingly kicked in. It’s not about helping people, it’s about simplistic and petty morality plays, satisfyingly paired with ass kickings).

    It’s not playing so well to the larger electorate, because most of them either don’t like open nastiness, and/or value actual job-appropriate skills, and/or just aren’t authoritarian enough to enjoy bullying as the #1 virtue they look for in a celeb/prez.

  21. 21.

    SRW1

    Here’s a bet: After having talked to President Nieto during the day, Trump will water down THE WALL in his highly anticipated immigration speech at 6 pm to a “Immigration-related building activities program. The best program.”

    And tomorrow he will ridicule the media for not getting his snark.

  23. 23.

    Bruce K

    “Surely Mr. Trump has a clever plan…”

    I swear I just saw a light bulb illuminate over my head. If you posit that Edmund Blackadder and Baldrick are working somewhere in the bowels of the Trump campaign, then all of a sudden it all makes perfect sense.

  24. 24.

    PaulWartenberg2016

    I can think of a few reasons why Trump is doing this:

    1) It’s a chance to preen before more cameras. His vanity compels him to do this.

    2) As an impulsive creature, any off-the-wall proposal given to him will be accepted as a challenge.

    3) Trump thinks this will help his “pivot” to win over White voters horrified by Trump’s racist anti-Latino statements of the past year lifetime as well as stop more Latino voters from joining African-American voters in the #NeverTrump coalition.

    4) The Mexican President Nieto making the offer must have thrown in an offer of a free lunch.

    5) Trump’s really bat-shit crazy.

  25. 25.

    DissidentFish

    Sorry for being such a geek but — if you have to refer to the president of Mexico by one name, that name is Peña. Nieto is his mother’s family name.

  26. 26.

    Ian

    I have never understood the “we will build a wall and they will pay for it” thing. How exactly do we enforce that? The only suggestion the orange hued fuckwad has are claiming remittances. Which implies that the Republicans are okay with a massive siezure of private property (specifically money). It seems that the rethugs have done a whole 180 degrees on the ‘it’s my money not the gubmints’. The only logical route I can see out of this maze is that the rethugs don’t think that Mexican-American’s money is worth the protection and gaurentees of white Americans.

  30. 30.

    Peale

    @Ian: why? It’s just the money of regular people…non-citizen minority money to boot. That’s fair game. That’s not the money conservatves anywhere are all that interested in protecting. no hypocrisy. Heck, it’s money that was earned from wages, which barely counts as money at all.

  31. 31.

    NorthLeft12

    Gotta love the Dreamers [yes, I chose that word on purpose] in the Trump mob who actually believe/hope that the Donald will come back with a check from the Mexican President for his wall.

    I can see it now, Deadbeat Donald steps off the plane waving a scrap of paper in his hand saying “We have wall in our time! I have made a fantastic deal for us and this is the first installment of many checks to come! Just terrific!”

  33. 33.

    SFAW

    @Sunny Raines:

    Golden opportunity for ICE to not let trump back in the country!

    Well, since his mommy was supposedly not a ‘Murican citizen when Deadbeat Donnie arrived, then perhaps they could investigate that. Maybe Arpaio can help.

    Even if the “Mrs. Trump was not a citizen” thing has been completely debunked, it would be irresponsible not to check into it, anyway.

  34. 34.

    NorthLeft12

    BTW, No More Mr. Nice Blog has a nice take on why the Repub Presidential candidate seems to poll better in the year before the election than after his nomination.
    That is because the candidate in the previous year is not an actual person, but a fictional, non-existent creature that has been created by the media. This calm, responsible, personable, moderate, and accommodating person gets replaced by an actual human being with a record, flaws, and a platform that horrifies most people.
    I know this has been discussed before, but it always bears repeating as most of the RW pundits never seem to get it. And still keep scratching their heads and asking “What happened?” in the run up to November.

  35. 35.

    gvg

    @Ian: They don’t actually have any respect for property rights, just their individual privileges. Look at the drug money seizure laws that allow law enforcement to take suspicious cash and cars without a conviction and confiscate property if any drug activities happen on a property. the first I regard as highway robbery and have always expected a lawsuit to overturn it. Hasn’t happened because the majority of our population remains phobic about drug crime. The second is just problematic, not as clearly just robbery. These laws are decades old and don’t get much attention, but they prove a lack of respect to real property rights. Yes democrats voted for and some still support these laws but it started with republicans.

    I don’t understand Trump but I will speculate that he accepted the Mexican Presidents invitation because of his simplistic idea’s of what our Presidents job is and he thinks meeting foreign Presidents and having them fawn over him with lots of press is what the job is that he wants. Something stupid like that anyway.

  36. 36.

    El Caganer

    So The Donald arrives in Mexico City, the government announces that he doesn’t have proper travel documents, they hold him in a secure facility for two weeks, then deport him to the US?

  38. 38.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Unknown known (formerly known as Ecks, former formerly completely unknown): “Dominance politics”, basically being the bigger bully and framing the other guy as a wimp (if he can’t fend off my bullshit attacks, what can he do against $FOREIGN_BAD_GUY?), worked pretty well for the Republicans in the 1980s, and it got W. Bush a win in 2004 when we were really still in the post-9/11 period. It takes a little bit of subtlety to do it right, though; you have to come across as a basically respectable guy.

    And if your opponent is Hillary Clinton, who is both a woman (which makes certain kinds of attacks seem gross) and someone whose reputation is not for wimpiness, it probably upends some of the assumptions.

  39. 39.

    Matt McIrvin

    …Though if it were still, say, 1984, I think the “what if she’s on her period when she gets the 3 AM call?” kind of attack actually would have been effective. People used it against Geraldine Ferraro.

  41. 41.

    Weaselone

    @El Caganer:

    I would think it was hilarious if they did so, but I suspect it would raise Trump’s chances of winning the Presidency if this was done. It would be 2 weeks where here couldn’t put his foot in his mouth and some of the individuals who would be rightfully ticked about a foreign government imprisoning a US presidential candidate might continue supporting him after his release.

  43. 43.

    scav

    @Denali: Frantic Spotlight Hugging is all very well, so long as one is a person that can reliably be trusted to put on your pants first. Every time. Right way round.

  44. 44.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @shomi: Let me translate Josh for you; Trump is a bully, and Trump is walking into a situation were he can be bullied badly and made to look like a coward by someone who has every interest in the world to humiliate Trump.

  45. 45.

    trnc

    @JGabriel:

    I’m ambivalent on that dichotomy, as I’m not sure there’s a significant or meaningful difference between a referendum on Trump’s fragile psychology and a full consideration of what the rest of the Republican Party wants to do to this country.

    After all, it was the rest of the Republican Party, or at least a plurality of it, that nominated him.

    You know that. I know that. Keith knows that.

    But the villagers don’t. Or, at least, they’ll give right wing voters the benefit of the doubt and claim Clinton gets no mandate, regardless of the margin.

  46. 46.

    Chris

    @Jeff:

    I really don’t understand these polls.

    I’m phone banking for the Democrats right now. We’re given three bland and generic questions – are you supporting Hillary Clinton, are you supporting Chris Van Hollen, are you supporting Jamie Raskin. That’s it. (And, if they’re supporters, you then ask if they want to volunteer and if they’d like a yard sign). It all seems far more sensible than… what you had.

    I can’t even see the point of leading questions as a way to influence people, because most of the people who pick up are cranky and irritated at being interrupted in the first place – bullshitting them will make them more so, not less.

  49. 49.

    Dmbeaster

    @Chris: Its called push polling and has a long history as a device to sway opinion or interject damaging rumor. For example, would your opinion of Sen McCain be affected if you knew he had a black baby? Along with other crap, all spread by push polls in South Carolina in 2000 by Rove.

  50. 50.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Chris: I think this kind of thing works better with lonely retirees who might actually find some diversion in talking to somebody on the phone. It’s one of the reasons that so many phone scams are aimed at them.

  51. 51.

    The Other Chuck

    @Ian: Seizing remittances? He really suggested that? Wow. My gob. Smacked it is.

    Not all Latinos are pro-immigration, and some would even like to pull the drawbridge up. But between this street-corner-shakedown business of taking the desperately needed cash going to families in Mexico, and the whole ethnic cleansing of 11 million, Trump is pulling a Pete Wilson on the whole goddam country.

    Mantano chingado que el pollo, Señor Trump.

  52. 52.

    shortribs

    Trump is going to Mexico so he can say “I told them to their face they’ll pay for the wall”, Besides he knows he can just lie about what was said and he won’t get called on it in any meaningful way..

  53. 53.

    Scotian

    @Bruce K:

    Damn but you have something there! There really does seem to be something truly Blackadderish about the Trump campaign no matter who is running the infrastructure, and you can just hear the words “I have a cunning plan” running around Trump’s head as he explains his latest “idea” to his group of Baldrics around him. Thank you for one of the few real laughs I’ve had lately, especially as regards the Trump insanity!

  54. 54.

    JaneE

    Trump thinks it is a win win. Either he gets Nieto to agree to something proving he is the best negotiator ever, or he gets dissed which further inflames his base and gets his rallies hopping.

  55. 55.

    Elie

    @shortribs:

    Nieto is a fool if he lets Trump get away without a press conference of some type…. And Nieto should have the last word as host…..

  57. 57.

    Enhanced Voting Techinques

    Well maybe it’s that fancy new campaign advisor’s of Trump’s idea of giving Trump some foreign policy credibility. See, like Hilary, Trump talks to foreign leaders and doesn’t just hire their henchmen. Nieto can’t get to abusive with Trump or Nieto will anger the GOP establishment at Mexico so maybe they figure this is safe enough.

    Oh and, yes, Trump’s Dreamer base will be convinced Trump got the check for the wall no matter what actually happens.

  59. 59.

    Citizen_X

    Jesus, who’s stupid enough to believe that Trump’s going to leave Mexico with a check for a wall in his hand? (Looks.) Oh, Joe Walsh. Never mind!

  60. 60.

    artem1s

    Oh plz let Obama schedule a last minute press conference during Donnie’s visit to Mexico. RE: #2 ISIS guy dead. and OBL also still dead, too, BTW.

  61. 61.

    Jibeaux

    I like the formulation of Trump’s Razor. And I like how Marshall figured out Spanish nomenclature midway through the piece. (His last name would be Pen~a Nieto or just Pen~a. Nieto would be his mother’s last name and is called the “second last name” but is not his main last name. It’s his mother’s main last name.)

  62. 62.

    Peale

    @The Other Chuck: Yep. I wish we’d spend as much time focusing on the “pay for it” part of the plan as the “build a wall” part of it. That “pay for it” is actually the part that would mobilize voters outside those of Mexican origin. Yeah, the wall is insulting, but it isn’t new and Republicans have won elections on promises to build it for years now. I think even McCain had to finally promise to finish the wall when he was running. While voters of Mexican and Central American origin are the largest share of Latino group, Cubans, Dominicans and Puerto Ricans don’t share the illegal immigrant story. I haven’t found a whole lot of sympathy for Mexican among the Filipinos I tend to hang with (quite a bit of resentment, actually, since they came here legally, why can’t the Mexicans?), so I am guessing that there are a lot of immigrant groups that aren’t really all gung ho for tearing down Trump over immigration because he’s been very specific about who he is targeting and its not them. Undocumented labor a problem for Indians? Koreans? Hmong? Not really. A problem for immigrants who are citizens and can vote? Nope. But if the topic of remittances turns up, you’d really have a great deal of outrage come up since pretty much every group goes through a period where they send significant amounts of money home to keep their families afloat.

  65. 65.

    burnspbesq

    Biased Judge Curiel zaps Trump again. Motion fot decertification of plaintiff class denied.

  67. 67.

    Aleta

    Quotes from Mexican citizens’ twitter, from a buzzfeed post.

    Politicians, celebrities and average citizens all quickly began tweeting their dismay at the invitation. Former First Lady Margarita Zavala de Calderón made a particularly strong impression with her tweet:
    Sr. @realDonaldTrump aunque lo hayan invitado, sepa que no es bienvenido. Los mexicanos tenemos dignidad y repudiamos su discurso de odio.
    — Margarita Zavala (@Mzavalagc)

    “Mr. Donald Trump, although you were invited, know that you are not welcome,” Zavala, who is said to be considering a run for the presidency of her own, tweeted.

    And while Trump attempted to use former President Vicente Fox — who famously said Mexico would not “pay for that fucking wall” — as cover for his visit, Fox was having none of it.
    @realDonaldTrump, I invited you to come and apologize to all Mexicans. Stop lying! Mexico is not yours to play with, show some respect.
    — Vicente Fox Quesada (@VicenteFoxQue)

  68. 68.

    louc

    I’m afraid this is a political ploy that will be a win-win for Nieto and Trump. Nieto, who’s not very popular, gets to thump his chest and stand up to Trump. Trump gets the publicity because that jerk in Mexico was rude to him and his followers and fence-sitters get offended by Mexico’s bad attitude.

  69. 69.

    schrodinger's cat

    @Peale: Most immigrants know that undocumented Mexicans are just an easy target right now and their number is next if Trump succeeds. Obama won the vote of the newly naturalized by a huge margin both the times he ran. Also the Jewish vote, the black vote, the South Asian vote, the Asian vote and so on. Most minorities know that Democrats have their back while the Republican will plunge a knife in their back. There was a time when Republicans used to win the Muslim vote but now no more.

  70. 70.

    NorthLeft12

    @Peale: I doubt that most Americans [and that includes the authorities] can tell the difference between various Latinos. Targeting Mexicans means that South Americans, Cubans, Puerto Ricans, Central Americans, hell even Spaniards and the Portugese will get hassled as well.
    It is disingenuous to claim that it will only impact illegal Mexicans.

  71. 71.

    bluefish

    Nieto means grandson in Spanish. Enrique Pena Nieto basically spells out that the fellow is the third Enrique Pena in a row. In English he would be Enrique Pena III. In Latin America he becomes “Nieto.” So, forgive the pedantry, but he’s either Pres. Pena Nieto or Pres. Pena. Not Pres. Nieto.

    I wonder if anyone will clue Donald into this before he opens his little mouth to address the Mexican President. I’m predicting that this little visit by the three amigos will end with all three bearing egg on their faces. Shameless. Anything, really, to shift attention to what I also predict will be an incoherent speech tonight in Arizona. Don’t need a crystal ball for that one. Trump will have had, no question, believe me, the BEST visit with President Nieto EVER! The Wall is practically built! Pinky swears and blood oaths exchanged.

  72. 72.

    daves09

    If Pena gives Trump anything his support will go to 3% He’s a corrupt greedhead,a total throwback to the glory days of the PRI. All Mexican presidents steal but Pena is apparently going for the record.
    Once again Trump is inexplicable, you can’t make these things up.

  73. 73.

    Scotian

    @burnspbesq:

    For me Blackadder. I would feel sorry for the poor ol’ Wiley, whereas the Blackadder I always felt got everything he had coming to him, which is how I feel about Trump. As well, until I see Trump go down in blazing defeat I am reluctant to equate him with Wiley because he never ever won anything, whereas Edmund got the occasional small victory even though the larger ones always were beyond him. Now, if Trump should lose as disastrously as he could, then I might be willing to equate him and Wiley, but even then only for the level of losing and being against someone he could never catch, but until then…I am taking nothing for granted. 8 years of President Cheney…oops I mean GWB and 9 years of PM Stephen Harper have long since cured me of counting anything nor anyone out until after the final votes are in and the concession speeches made.

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