Fresh off of last night’s policy speech on immigration in Phoenix, Donald Trump is holding a rally in Wilmington, OH today. Currently Rudy Giuliani is warming up the crowd with a lot of red meat.
Vice President Biden will be doing a campaign rally for Secretary Clinton at 7 PM EDT tonight in Cleveland, OH and I’ve got an embedded live feed scheduled to go live for that at 6:50 PM EDT.
CONGRATULATIONS!
He can be lord of Jackass Nation after loses in November to sane people.
Hey, wow, really didn’t notice that gasping thing y’all were talking about until I heard him on the radio yesterday with Señor Chamberlain. He sounds fucking horrible.
Bobby Thomson
It wasn’t a god damn policy speech.
Christ.
Shell
Trump called Guiliani one of ‘our heroes.’ to the American Legion. Uhh, as far as I know, he never served in the military.
Adam L Silverman
@Bobby Thomson: For good or for ill he laid out ten specific policy points. That makes it a policy speech as much as it was also a rally the base speech.
Adam L Silverman
@Shell: He didn’t.
eric
@Adam L Silverman: said another way: crazy policy is still policy.
eric
@Adam L Silverman: he was on the front lines of fighting crime in New York and setting a first responder command center in tower 7.
OGLiberal
When you’ve lost Ron Fournier…
Ron Fournier @ron_fournier 14 hours ago
Hey, people on tv today yammering about “optics” & how presidential Trump looked: You watching tv now??
#DangerousBigotryOfLowExpectations
He’s actually hitting the media more than Trump – we are in bizarro world now.
Of course, a good number of his tweets are still about Hillary and email and how she screwed up by not being more upfront. But at least he’s come around to the fact that Trump is a danger and the media covering Trump are being played. And for that, the wingers are accusing him of being some lefty lover.
dmsilev
@Shell: No, but he strode around NY with a purposeful look on his face after the city’s emergency management center was destroyed in the WTC attack, and that counts, right?
Major Major Major Major
Rudy’s not looking so good. He should eat less red meat.
Kay
They’re the real voters. All the rest of the people are special interest groups.
The vast majority of people are not of interest to cable pundits.
Kay
Well, if Trump wins someone will finally look at Rudy’s business interests. He’s been cashing in on 9/11 since the smoke cleared at that site.
It will be too late, of course. He’ll be the attorney general.
germy
@Major Major Major Major:
More pink slime smoothies.
MattF
@Kay: As everyone knows, non-white or non-male votes count for only 3/5 of a white male vote.
germy
@Kay:
I thought Chris Christie for Attorney General; Rudy for Sec. Of State.
germy
@MattF: And press conferences in front of Black & Hispanic journalists don’t count for HRC.
Bobby Thomson
@Adam L Silverman: “they’re gone in the first hour” is an aspirational, nay, ludicrous goal, not a policy.
There was nothing in Trump’s Phoenix speech that wasn’t already covered in Clinton’s Reno speech.
Iowa Old Lady
I’m running behind everyone else, but I didn’t listen to any of the Phoenix speech until a little while ago, and I’m deeply distressed. I feel like something horrible is happening right out in public and too many people are either ignoring it or saying it’s not so bad.
Obviously you all know this already. That speech just drove it home to my gut.
Kay
@MattF:
They have to do something about it. I’m a white female and I hear it loud and clear. I can’t imagine how blatant it must be to the other “special interest groups”. There’s the standard voter and then all these sub-standard voters who are compared to the white male group. They have to stop doing this. It’s time.
Kay
7 is nice, so cheer up Balloon JUicers! 7 is plenty.
rikyrah
But but but…the Clinton Foundation!
Uh huh
Uh huh
David FahrentholdVerified account
@Fahrenthold
300, and counting. Still looking for evidence that @realdonaldtrump gave his own $ to charity, as he says.
rikyrah
brutal, but true.
……………
Greg SargentVerified account
@ThePlumLineGS
Journalists will literally be embeds in deportation cattle cars, covering mass removals, and they’ll still be saying, “he’s softening!”
Jibeaux
@Shell: well, he didn’t get captured, did he? Hero.
Hal
Has Rudy brushed his bottom teeth?
mdblanche
@germy: Christie would be Secretary of Transportation.
glory b
On msnbc now, “large scale” resignations from Trump’s Hispanic advisory panel, one member says he feels he was “duped.”
germy
@mdblanche: Or he could run Health & Human Services.
hovercraft
@Shell:
None of these chicken hawks ever do, at least morons like Gen. Flynn, know from what they speak, the Gullianis, Christies and all the rest, didn’t even have the guts to fight in these wars. If you’re too old how about your kids, for all that I find McCain to be wrong about everything his family has been putting themselves on the line for generations.
Adam L Silverman
@eric: That’s hazardous duty man, right there!
Adam L Silverman
@Kay: No, he’ll be White House Counsel is my guess. Christie will get AG.
MattF
@Kay: A cheerier note.
But I’ll have to add that people just don’t understand how what a random time series looks like. There’s a popular misconception that ‘random’ means ‘sorta evenly spaced with fluctuations’– but that’s just wrong. A much better notion of random motion is ‘every possible kind of motion interrupted unpredictably’. Better to follow one of the metadata nerds, e.g., Sam Wang or the folks at Huffpost.
Anoniminous
Statistically a Trump supporter is white, middle class male, earning $20,000 to $60,000 above the average wage. This is the group most threatened by the actual decline of the middle class and they think* this decline will continue as their jobs and professions are either off-shored or automated. Basically Trump is whipping up the hysteria of the predominately white white collar downward mobile following Reagan’s earlier success with blue collar workers facing the similar economic situation. Problem for Trump and the GOP demographic change has be paid to that tactic. In 2012 Romney won whites by 20 points (Roper) when whites were 72% of voters and went on to lose. This year whites will be ~69-70% of voters. Whites are a necessary bloc in the Democratic Party coalition a keeping them in the coalition is a necessary task. Whites are the only thing the GOP has got and there’s just not enough of them to flip 2012 Obama states given the Clinton/OFA GOTV infrastructure.
* accurately
Kay
@glory b:
I’m sure he’s a nice man but there was nothing about Donald Trump’s entire career that made him think he might be a huge liar who dupes people? It’s the defining issue of his character. You literally can’t miss it.
Iowa Old Lady
John Lewis surfed the crowd on last night’s Colbert show. I see it on Kos, but it’s probably elsewhere too. There’s good in this world.
TaMara (HFG)
@Kay: I want it to be brutal. So brutal he doesn’t even show up for a concession speech. There was a hate-filled legislator here in Colorado that was voted out of office so decisively she didn’t concede and I don’t think anyone has heard from her again. Best testament is I cannot remember her name.
That’s what I want for the Drumpf.
Kay
@glory b:
Change “feels” to “was” and we’ll be getting somewhere. He was duped.
Miss Bianca
Dear God, I keep thinking that if I looked hard enough I’d see members of my own family in that crowd…*shudder*….
Kay
@TaMara (HFG):
I’m a shallow person so I look forward to the concession speech in a way that is not healthy :)
I also want a documentary following Don Jr that day.
hovercraft
@glory b:
Alfonso Aguillar is one of them, this past weekend he was on AM Jot spewing hatred, defending Trump and saying that he was better that Hillary because he didn’t do things like support Margaret Sanger who supported eugenics, and founded Planned Parenthood which is engaged in genocide against black and Latinos right now. Now he feels betrayed. SAD !!!
CONGRATULATIONS!
@Kay: My betting margin is 6 points against the office Trumptard, but Johnson/Stein are fucking up my Christmas as I said Hillary would pull 53% of the vote, which ain’t happening now. Can they drop out? I REALLY want to rub this in my co-worker’s face.
Anoniminous
Speaking of Sam Wang …
The 2016 Senate Forecast:
If you live in a state with a Senate race it is REALLY IMPORTANT to get out there and do what you can to flip or keep the seat.
Highway Rob
Proposed: Trump is xenophobic and bigoted like a fox, or at least thinks he is. His anti-immigrant rants are directed at taking the 2012 electoral map and flipping the rust belt & Iowa. That’s 276-262 in favor of opening the sixth seal. It’s a longshot, but it may be the only shot he has, and the polling averages show that Michigan and Wisconsin in particular are far closer than they ought to be.
Counter-proposed: Marshall’s “Trump’s razor.” And the fact that even if that is his strategy, it’s not working.
Final proposal: Seething Christ, I’ve become a concern troll. Someone link me to Biden’s speech, stat.
Adam L Silverman
@CONGRATULATIONS!: They’re not on the ballot in every state. Especially Stein. So their effect on the electoral vote will be smaller than the polling indicates.
VOR
@dmsilev: Didn’t Rudy 9/11 locate the command center in the WTC partially in order to use an attached apartment as a love nest? Or was that Bernie Kerik? Or both?
Adam L Silverman
@Highway Rob: He’s not on till 7 PM, but here’s the link if you want it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_xaeWZ0Pew
germy
Saw this on LGM from Shakezula, about the media and their reporting this campaign season:
The Dangerman
I still wonder what happens with all these assholes that have crawled out from under their rocks; they aren’t going anyplace (sadly). How many McVeigh’s and Nichols’ have been created?
Also, I wonder, if Trump loses (I think I agree with 538, that’s about 70% now, maybe a little less), if he runs again in 2020? Yes, age will be a problem, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t run (or, perhaps, it’ll be one of the kids). I’ve posited that Hillary is a one termer so he would surely be a recurring danger 4 years out.
Roger Moore
@germy:
No, that’s Martin Shkreli’s position.
germy
@The Dangerman: Saying repeatedly “This is it, folks, this is our last chance! If my opponent wins we won’t have a country anymore” will surely lead to violence when he loses.
Fair Economist
@Kay:
Plenty to win the Presidency, sure, but not plenty to win the House.
It’s also depressing that *SO* many Americans would support such a monster.
TaMara (HFG)
@Anoniminous: It seems strange, but I haven’t see the GOP put any effort into the Colorado Senate race and Bennett was far ahead last time I heard.
germy
@Roger Moore:
I see Martin running the FDA under a trump administration.
JPL
@Adam L Silverman: Do you know which states, where they will be on the ballot?
Thunderbird
@The Dangerman: I don’t think he’d run again, but if he did, he’d get the “this guy lost to Hillary freaking Clinton” tag hung around his neck immediately, and his ego wouldn’t be able to take it.
Iowa Old Lady
@JPL: I think I’ve read that in the past, fewer people actually voted for a third party than picked them in a poll. Confronted by the unfamiliar name on a ballot, people hesitate.
Mnemosyne
@Anoniminous:
Here in CA, we’re getting ready to elect a half-Black, half-Indian woman to our Senate seat. I honestly don’t even know who the sacrificial Republican is this time, and nobody seems to care.
Tracy Ratcliff
@The Dangerman: I prefer Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium, though that may be because I want to hear, “Most boring election since WWII, Clinton by 6 or 7 just like I said in March.”
I can’t see Trump coming back in 2020, the “Trumpists” will hare off after another savior or two, and Trump has enough legal and financial problems to occupy him.
rk
@Kay:
His concession speech will say that the election was rigged and crooked Hillary won unfairly. That’s who he is. His supporters will believe it.
There is nothing good in him. I don’t think that this man has a single redeeming quality. I can’t think of one thing about him (from public information) which shows a good quality or anything which shows his generosity. Nothing. Even his love for Ivanka seems sick and twisted. In an absolute dictatorship he’d be an Idi Amin or Saddam Hussain.
I just don’t get his male supporters, because everyone has seen this kind of boss, the guy who doesn’t care about you and will fire you in a heartbeat if somehow it helped his bottom line.
Brachiator
@Anoniminous: Again, it’s not just whites. White men and white women vote differently. Younger voters are not the same as older voters.
PaulWartenberg2016
I want Obama out here speaking for Hillary. He can help get her numbers back up.
Miss Bianca
@TaMara (HFG): Very different from last time, when he just eked out a win over Ken Buck…
I wonder what the difference is this time round…
Anoniminous
@TaMara (HFG):
The last poll had Bennett at +13 and Clinton ahead by 11.8.
With those numbers I’ll bet they have written off Colorado and will put their money into other states.
Adam L Silverman
@The Dangerman: Its not how many have been created, they’re always there. Seething away at the extremes. The question is how many have been pulled into the mainstream, or how much of their beliefs, and how many have been empowered to take action win or lose.
eric
@germy: that horse is named RonArtest
PaulWartenberg2016
@Tracy Ratcliff:
If the major parties have any sense, they’re going to set caps on those who can run for the Presidency by insisting their candidates be 1) thoroughly vetted on their taxes, and 2) that the candidate have some prior elective or public office experience (governor, congress House or Senate, Cabinet post, military position of high rank like the Joint Chiefs).
eric
@PaulWartenberg2016: not call mexicans rapists…..and the like
Betty Cracker
@Iowa Old Lady: I watched it this morning and am feeling the same way. It was truly Hitleresque in many ways: the scapegoating, the hyping up of threats, the absurd promises about the remedy, etc. I’ve seen subtitled videos of Hitler rallies, and the lines people really went nuts for were outlandish lies about producing 10,000 warplanes, etc., just as the Trumpsters go nuts over how Mexico is going to pay for the wall or Trump will kick out thousands of people within an hour of being sworn in — transparent lies.
@Kay: You and me both!
Roger Moore
@Anoniminous:
It’s not quite true that whites are the only thing the GOP has left. They’ve also won around 25-30% of the Latino and AAPI vote the past couple of elections, and winning more than that was a key part of how George W. Bush was able to win in 2004 and keep 2000 close enough to steal. Trump seems to be doing his level best to bring that 25-30% down to the <10% of the black vote that Republicans have been left with, which will make it even harder to win using only white votes.
Adam L Silverman
@TaMara (HFG): Also helps that the GOP candidate seems to be nuts.
http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/news/a48129/colorado-senate-race-darryl-glenn/
CONGRATULATIONS!
@Fair Economist: In all seriousness, what else are they going to do? Vote for Hillary, when they sincerely believe she’ll be the end of America and possibly their lives? And I don’t question the sincerity. Every Trump voter I know is, at the core, terrified. I don’t blame them for supporting a monster, because that monster has promised to save them.
Yes the belief is ridiculous, utterly, but it is what they believe. Really not possible to argue someone out of a deeply held belief. The only “fix” for this is media controls that this country won’t and probably shouldn’t accept, but the media are the root cause of the trouble in our body politic.
Anoniminous
@Brachiator:
I keep harping on “whites” because Trump and the HORSE! RACE! fantasy being peddled by our Infotainment Mediums depends on them flocking to Trump.
ETA: the massive lead Clinton has with “college educated women” is almost certainly a lead with “college educated white women”
@Mnemosyne:
Granted there are some safe seats which means you can go help out in Arizona or Nevada in your copious free time! :-)
TaMara (HFG)
@Mnemosyne: Oh, you’re here. Have you seen this? I smiled.
shomi
Just want it to end at this point. Every headline makes me want to guzzle antifreeze. The one today was that Trump AND Clinton voters driven by fear. So both sides do it and it’s like totally going to be a close horserace according to MSM.
Trumps idiocy and incoherence and flip flopping from hour to hour has been fully normalized at this point to make it comparable to Clintons competency and consistency….and there are still ‘questions’ about her emails…..sigh.
Adam L Silverman
@JPL: The Libertarians claim to have ballot access in 46 states and DC.
The Greens are supposedly on in 36 states.
https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_for_major_and_minor_party_candidates
Those both seem high to me. But the information is likely correct.
Mnemosyne
I’m sure there will be people who are going to start saying that we shouldn’t act too triumphant and not crush Trump too hard because it will hurt the delicate fee-fees of his followers.
You know what?
Fuck.
That.
I am spiking the motherfucking ball right in those assholes’ faces. I want Trump to lose so bad that they’ll be embarrassed to ever admit watching a single episode of “The Apprentice,” much less voting for the guy.
Because of the right-wing noise machine, McVeigh actually thought he had a secret army of angry white dudes behind him who were just waiting for their cue to start massacring non-whites. I don’t want Trump and his Trumpistas to have even that sliver of belief. I want to crush them and make them despair, because any shred of hope that someone is on their side will only make them act out.
eric
@shomi: i am driven by a fear of kristallnacht
Jim Parish
@Mnemosyne: The Republicans already got sacrificed; the top two candidates in the jungle primary were Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez, both Democrats.
Roger Moore
@Kay:
There isn’t going to be a concession speech. There’s going to be an “I was robbed! Election Fraud! Election Fraud!” speech. He’s already setting it up.
Adam L Silverman
@Iowa Old Lady: And in this case I think the likelihood is that Johnson/Weld is going to pull from Trump – it’ll be a landing place for Republicans that don’t want to stay home and want to still vote for somebody for President. I expect Stein to do as poorly as she’s polling. The people that support her were never going to support any Democratic nominee.
SoupCatcher
@Mnemosyne:
That’s because there is none. It’s D on D. No R made it out of the jungle primary.
eta Or, what Jim Parish said.
Miss Bianca
@Adam L Silverman: well, yeah…there’s that…but only marginally more nuts than most CO Republicans…
Adam L Silverman
@Miss Bianca: Absolutely nutso opponent. See my reply to TaMara at comment 69.
Peale
@Roger Moore: Its also not quite true that whites are irrelevant to the prospects of the Democrats. But I’m kind of hoping that Latinos, Asians and Caribbean Islanders will come out in numbers that reflect their current voting power. I didn’t hear Trump spending a lot of time talking about exemptions for Cubans last night, did you?
The Dangerman
@Adam L Silverman:
Beyond winning and losing, which are post-11/8 concerns, I worry about violence on election day; if they believe Trump is the “last chance” and the Supreme Court, which has been “theirs” for generations is lost, who knows how far they go to try and win? Are there enough police to go around to the obvious districts (i.e., the minority majority locations). As I said last night, I’m basically checking out for about 6 weeks starting early October and am glad that I will be missing a lot of this “excitement” (I’ll be busy hugging Redwoods and watching sunsets over the ocean, THANK GOD).
Roger Moore
@Anoniminous:
Been there, done that. My state’s Senate seat is guaranteed not to flip. We get a choice between the biracial Democratic woman candidate and the Latina Democratic candidate. There isn’t even going to be a Republican on the ballot. So I’ve sent my money to the Act Blue page Dr. Wang has set up.
Mnemosyne
@Anoniminous:
I did actually kind of promise the campaign I would do that. I even have an almost-new car that I could road trip in. I just need them to propose a weekend that I don’t already have previous plans for!
@TaMara (HFG):
So many t-shirts, so little time.
Also, too, are you going to have another Authors Among Us thread anytime soon? I have a question about pen names that I would love to get opinions on, though I am still very far from publication (still assembling a first draft of a first novel).
Adam L Silverman
@TaMara (HFG): Do they come in a moisture wicking men’s XXXL? Asking for a friend who’s into dueling. And wears a XXXL. And likes his t shirts moisture wicking…
Peale
@Adam L Silverman: Yeah. I’m kind of happy to see that she’s polling around 1-2% in polls that I’ve seen. Probably won’t be a spoiler in any race that matters. That points to me that the Bernie-or-bust voters have grasped that Trump would be a lot worse than the Clinton monster they created.
Anoniminous
@shomi:
It’s all about the ad dollars. Clinton is ahead by 11.8 points in Colorado so she nixed her August advertising. A million or so gone *poof*
Mnemosyne
@SoupCatcher:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAA!
Ahem. Sorry, the evil laugh just couldn’t be suppressed. I knew Harris had won the primary, but I thought some no-name Republican had managed to squeak past Sanchez.
Adam L Silverman
@eric: Try this:
http://www.3m.com/3M/en_US/company-us/all-3m-products/~/3M-Safety-Security-Window-Films-Ultra-Prestige-Series-for-Residential?N=5002385+8709314+8710037+8710654+8710938+8711017+8721691+3292716676&rt=rud
Roger Moore
@Iowa Old Lady:
This is actually even reflected in the polling when you dig into the crosstabs. They ask the respondents not just who they favor but also how sure they are they’ll vote that way. The major party candidates get “mostly sure” or “very sure”, while the third party candidates tend to get a lot more “somewhat sure” or “not very sure”. So the people who say they’re going to vote third party are already hedging their bets.
TaMara (HFG)
@Adam L Silverman: gawd, I hadn’t even looked at carefully at him – of course he won, batshit crazy eastern voters always show up.
Anoniminous
@Mnemosyne:
Preach it sister.
I want the Trumpsters and the rest of the GOP humiliated beyond bearing. So much so that they go away and DIAF.
Good for you re: out of state campaigning. I’m stuck here in NM but will do some phone banking.
redshirt
I wonder what Bernie is up to….
sigaba
@rk:
Most everybody doesn’t want to get fired. However, some people harbor the secret wish they could be the one doing the firing. Indeed, they believe in a just world they would be doing the firing, and those damn liberals are what stand between them and the just world.
Also, a lot of people get laid off with the boss saying something like “I’d have been able to keep you all around except for Obamacare/TPP/foreign competition/regulations” and a lot of people believe that.
I agree Trump reminds me of every shady producer or sound supervisor I’ve ever worked for. Just total flimflam. But a lot of people kinda like being flimflammed, particularly when the flimflam venerates some deeply held belief.
“Sure Trump might snowjob all of us, but he’s a billionaire and a negotiating genius, that’s just what he does! I’d do that if I were him! I wish I could do that! I love living in a world where that’s possible! At least he said Mexicans are rapists, screw the presidency, that’s all we really wanted.”
Miss Bianca
@TaMara (HFG): Ha! That’s geeky on an untold number of levels!
@TaMara (HFG): Plus, El Paso County. That’s a crazy tell right there.
Adam L Silverman
@The Dangerman: I fully expect we’ll see violence between now and election day – including election day. I’m surprised we haven’t seen more already. All the conditions are there. If this was going on in a foreign country and I was doing the analysis I would be doing most deadly course of action estimates updated daily.
Citizen Alan
@Mnemosyne:
There isn’t one. CA’s (horribly named) jungle primary ensured that there are two Dems on the final ballot.
Calouste
@PaulWartenberg2016:
That would have gotten rid of Bernie Sanders, that fraud. And I think 2) should be governor, House, Senate, or Cabinet for that party. I don’t think high ranking military should become politicians, and if they want to, nothing stops them from trying it at one level lower first for 4-6 years, after their retirement.
Roger Moore
@Mnemosyne:
There is none. Loretta Sanchez was second in the primary, so our choice is between two minority women Democrats.
Adam L Silverman
@Peale: I’m not sure those guys and gals, and I’m talking the hard core dead enders, not the reasonable folks that comment here and have reconciled to the party’s nominee, were never going to vote Democratic even if Sanders was the nominee. He’d have done something to betray them before the election.
catclub
All the latino advisors quitting the Trump team after wednesday night’s speech seems to have been missed in the big media.
sinnedbackward
@Mnemosyne: No Republican. The other survivor of the jungle primary was Loretta Sanchez, also a democrat. (I see lotsa folks beat me to it.)
Anoniminous
@Roger Moore:
A friend is trying to get me to work for a no-hope House race. I’ll be doing that or phone banking for Kirkpatrick in AZ.
germy
@catclub:
I missed that myself. I wonder if it’ll be mentioned on the tv news tonight?
Peale
@catclub: I sort of feel for them. But I can’t believe that they looked at Bannon and Sessions and thought “they really want to do Latino outreach now.” They really don’t. Seriously, Latino Republicans. They don’t want to have to ever have to do anything that will attract non-white voters.
shomi
@Kay: You do realize that Prez elections are won by electoral college right? You can have less that 50% and still win the Prez.
Also, just for arguments sake, 7% is a joke because Drumpf is a joke. It should be 4x that.
The Thin Black Duke
@catclub: Really? That happened? (sitting quietly behind the keyboard, a smile widens on my face)
The Dangerman
@Adam L Silverman:
Agreed; we are up to our ankles in gasoline and Donald is trying to strike the match. I’m being literal here; ANY violence, foreign or domestic, is a net win for Trump.
I read someplace this morning that this might be the worst crisis since the Cuban Missile Crisis. I think I’d push it back further to WWII (and a significant, if still minimal, driver on why I’m headed for the hills for a while); no one died during the CMC (ok, I might be forgetting a pilot of a spyplane but too lazy to look it up) but I’d be shocked if this didn’t end in significant loss of life someplace directly attributable to Trump and his minions.
Peale
@shomi: Oh, please. For every tightening poll there’s a good news poll these days. Reuters just published one that has Clinton up by 3. In Nebraska. Nebraska. Do I think she’ll win Nebraska? No. Do I think being up 3 in Nebraska based on a survey of 138 likely voters is a good sign anyway? Indeed I do.
CONGRATULATIONS!
@Adam L Silverman: They make this as car window tint and I have it. It was not cheap. It’s the best thing I’ve ever bought for the car. Roll up the windows and the temp drops by 10-20 degrees. Freaking amazing stuff.
redshirt
@The Dangerman: Trump sucks, but that seems majorly extreme. What Trump inspired violence could hope to compare to nuclear war?
The Dangerman
@Adam L Silverman:
Actually, I’d love an explanation of exactly what you mean there. Thanks.
FlipYrWhig
@Fair Economist:
I’d be curious to see the approval rating for Trump among people who have every intention of voting for Trump. I can’t imagine that he’s particularly popular even among his own voters. There are diehard Trumpiacs out there and then a huge number of people who are Republicans and vote for the Republican because it’s what you do, not because they like the guy, think he’s competent, or have any hope that he’ll ever get better.
Calouste
@redshirt: Other than trying to bilk his dead-enders out of more $27 donations so that Weaver can cream 15% of the top when buying TV ads?
FlipYrWhig
@Peale: And isn’t almost every “tightening poll” a change from an 8-9 margin to 6-7 anyway? That’s not a trend, that’s noise.
FlipYrWhig
@redshirt: He’s doing everything in his power to get Hillary Clinton elected. It’s just that he doesn’t have a lot of power, apparently.
catclub
@The Thin Black Duke: Yep. Slate article refers to Politico article.
@The Dangerman: I have the opposite feeling. Less than a nothingburger. A bunch of loudmouths will shut up quietly on Nov 9. I guess we will find out in the future.
My point of reference is 47% unemployment in 1933 in Germany. They were desperate. People here say they are desperate.
Another might be Greece the past 5 years with 25% unemployment. That is not really what US citizens are facing.
catclub
@The Thin Black Duke: here: Slate.
Trump’s Hispanic Allies Are Self-Deporting From His Campaign
The Dangerman
@redshirt:
I’m going back and forth between forward looking and looking in the rearview mirror here; obviously, looking back, the nukes didn’t fly and I have no great idea how close they ever were to flying (just a guess, but we were probably far closer in 1983 in the Petrov incident, actually).
germy
Roger Moore
@Adam L Silverman:
Note, though, that “ballot access” is not necessarily the same thing as being on the ballot. Some of the material I saw included the right to write in a candidate as “ballot access”.
What’s also important is where each party has access and where it doesn’t. Since the normal assumption is that the Greens are going to take votes mostly from the Democrats and Libertarians from the Republicans, looking for tightly contested states that have one and not the other gives you a better idea of where they could play spoiler. For example, that Ballotpedia article says the Libertarians are on the ballot in Nevada and North Carolina but the Greens are not. That could be an important difference, since those states are likely to be close. OTOH, Ohio appears to have the Greens but not Libertarians, which might help Trump.
shomi
@catclub: What were they doing there in the first place? Are they just now realizing who it is they are working for?
The Thin Black Duke
@catclub: Thanks!
germy
@Calouste: Bernie Sanders just bought his third house for nearly $600,000. I think it’ll be a summer place; lakefront. I’m guessing he and his family are relaxing there after the grueling campaign.
Betty Cracker
@germy: Alternate headline: Chickens Set to Bail on Colonel Sanders.
geg6
@Anoniminous:
Been at it here in PA to get McGinty elected over Toomey. I hate Toomey with a white hot passion, so even though McGinty wasn’t my first choice, it was never an option not to go all in for whomever won the Dem primary. He must be crushed.
Latest I’ve heard, she’s beating him pretty handily in current polling. That just motivates me more.
shomi
@Peale: 139 people? Guess you can take that one to the bank…not. But then again it’s Nebraska and there is only what….tens of thousands people living there…part time, during crop season?
redshirt
@The Dangerman: We were very close to the nukes flying during the missile crisis.
Trump inspired violence will be what? A handful of white guys shooting some people? Is that really that different than any other day in America?
germy
@Betty Cracker: As chickens go, so goes the nation…
SgrAstar
@Mnemosyne: There is no sacrificial repub, cuz you have a system which pits the top two primary winners against each other, regardless of party. Kamala Harris’ opponent is another dem, Loretta Sanchez.
Adam L Silverman
@CONGRATULATIONS!: I’ve got good tinting in mine as well. First addition I made to the car. Fortunately since I was on civilian mobilization orders in PA, I was able to keep the car registered at my permanent non-deployment address in FL. So I was able to tint it to FL specs, which are much, much darker than PA.
comrade scott's agenda of rage
@Adam L Silverman:
I call those types “Embarrassed Republicans”. The ones I know are white collar, college educated and have never (and never will) vote for a Democrat. Many try to trot out that old 80s/90s bullshit “socially liberal/fiscally conservative” crap to hide their inherent right wingyness and justify their Republican voting record since 1980. As such, they can’t stomach Trump so are going full-tilt Glibertarian in Johnson.
Which is great. Let em. Voting 3rd party is the electoral equivalent of sending your thoughts and prayers.
Jeffro
@PaulWartenberg2016: Agree completely on both counts. It’ll be interesting to see how each party’s base reacts, though.
Haydnseek
@Mnemosyne: Pro tip: Make sure you have a set of at least eight to ten rock solid, well rehearsed songs before you start worrying about names for the band.
Peale
The CNBC folk are concerned about whether Trump hardened or softened his position on immigration last night. You know, I’m really finding that whole question to be obnoxious. It was supposed to be a policy speech. Why not instead of asking whether or not those policies are hard or soft, get down and ask how much that beautiful wall and 500,000 border patrol agents will cost? And whether unleashing policemen into minority communities to round up the bad ones is actually a good idea from a standpoint other than “will it appeal to soccer moms.” Or bring in someone to ask whether releasing “2 million criminals” from our jails into third-world countries is actually a good idea or if that would further exacerbate their own crime problems. Hard or soft? A lot of this crap is just really bad policy.
Jeffro
Btw..not only do I have a new life goal, I’m doubly impressed by a long-time hero, Rep. John Lewis. His Colbert Show interview/segment is excellent but wait ’til you see him crowd-surf (at age 76!) around 7:45 in the video.
(Lewis’ MARCH, a series of graphic novels devoted to the civil rights movement, is outstanding btw – both my kids are huge fans!)
D58826
LAtest Clinton ‘scandal’ from Politico – seems Bill has been using government money to fund the CF. Several breathless paragraphs later after talking about optics and smoke and blurred lines the writer mentions that Clinton bills GSA for certain post-presidential expenses under a law that has been on the books for decades. But the lede makes it sound like Bill stops by the government printing office and picks up a few bundles of C notes. I really hjope these folks enjoy living under the Trump presidency.
CONGRATULATIONS!
@Adam L Silverman: I may have violated some vehicle code laws with the darkness of my coating, but fuck it. It’s not like they check here in CA (no yearly inspections).
Adam L Silverman
@The Dangerman: Tactical level estimates generally come with two Course of Action (COA) estimates. Most Likely Course of Action and Most Deadly Course of Action. For tactical level cultural operation reports my teammates and I created a Least Deadly Course of Action estimate. Basically what you’re trying to do is, based on the available data and information, conceptualize out what either the response will be to an action under consideration (will the response be likely, most deadly, least deadly) or whether the action itself is most deadly, most likely, least deadly. The analytical intent is to provide the decision makers with a range of possible effects/responses so they get a feel for the risks involved in choosing a course of action of their own.
ETA: We were estimating responses within the host country population. This is different than how these estimates are traditionally done by the intel folks who are focused on the enemy.
Miss Bianca
@catclub: I look at that and all I can think is, “wow…Trump actually *had* Latino/Hispanic advisors?”
Seanly
@Highway Rob:
Many of the Rust Belt states have the following:
1) African American voters
2) Hispanic voters
3) White Catholic voters who aren’t unfriendly to immigrants/others nor as conservative as the American bishops
Ted Cruz’s math on both white & conservative Christian voters was wrong. Trump’s is even more wrong. We might lose one of the Rust Belt states, but cement Florida and NC. I’m worried because anything can still happen, but at this point, the field favors Clinton.
Trump’s path to White House is very narrow. Relying on angry old white dudes who don’t usually vote won’t be very effective if there’s no ground game.
Aside from the racist grandmas seen in so many viral videos of Trump supporters, I think there may also be more women who vote for Clinton than currently indicated. Even just a smidge of half a percent of hidden support can make a difference.
The Ancient Randonnuer
@Peale:
He is 70 so that is not an unexpected outcome for a man in his apparent physical condition.
Mnemosyne
@Haydnseek:
Social media apparently changes the game quite a bit when it comes to pen names these days and some people have very strong opinions about whether it’s worth having to do the work of creating a whole new “person.”
And I have an MFA in Screenwriting, so I’m not super-concerned that I won’t produce something that a publisher will want to buy, arrogant as that may sound. ?
MomSense
@CONGRATULATIONS!:
It’s like a snort gasp. I wonder what’s going on.
glory b
@Miss Bianca: Another benefit of being Black!!
Miss Bianca
@glory b: LOL!! Now let’s get out there and vote and SAVE ME FROM MY FAMILY!!
Omnes Omnibus
@glory b: Yeah, but that also means, if your family members are there, they are easy to find in sea of pasty white.
Percysowner
@Anoniminous: Sadly, I live in Ohio. Strickland has so totally blown his chance that I don’t see much hope for flipping the seat. I’m going to work to have him win, but honestly he has just tanked.
Gelfling 545
@Peale: I expect that they looked at some financial or political advantage that might accrue to them from being connected to a presidential campaign. Now they find even the family dog won’t associate with them & need to get out quickly or have their integrity ( or sanity) impugned for life.
Terry chay
@Mnemosyne: the sacrificial Republican is a Hispanic Democrat because the CAGOP in a last gasp to remain relevant passed a jungle primary proposition on our state. Anyone who thinks the Republicans will learn from a Trump loss needs to look at California. They are headed to the wilderness where they will rely on their diminishing control of state and local legislatures to sooth themselves as they blame “liberals” for every ignominy they’ve doused on themselves as they give kickbacks to their friends and collect their state paychecks.
As for violence. I think in the long term this is good. America has toyed far too long with fascism and it’s about time we saw its ugly face so that people can be scared rightly. It can happen here and the only thing preventing it is our diversity. Let it come and let the majority of Trump voters realize that yes, you voted for that.
Haydnseek
@Mnemosyne: Don’t get me wrong. I wish you every success. I’m just saying that it’s a lot easier to create a whole new “person” than it is to create something that might interest total strangers in that entirely unknown person. ……..and yeah, that does sound arrogant, but if it’s the right kind of arrogant it comes with a big scoop of confidence. If you don’t have that, your dead before you start. I guess I’m saying that I learned the hard way that you do the hardest thing first. Everything after that becomes much easier once you have nice body of quality work safely tucked away. It will warm you at night, and help you fight off self-doubt. Be well.
Adam L Silverman
@CONGRATULATIONS!: They ticket in PA. So if I had FL legal tinting, but PA plates, I’d have been in a wee spot of bother.
Rand Careaga
@comrade scott’s agenda of rage:
Except that sometimes—sixteen years ago, for example—the prayers are answered. By Moloch.
shomi
So the latest antifreeze guzzling headline is that Drumpf apparently ran an immigrant teen model sweatshop.
The antifreeze guzzling part is that we will see more headlines about Clinton sending emails because both sides do it. Teen model sweat shop or sending emails from a home computer…it’s exactly the same thing.
Adam L Silverman
@Seanly: Its not that Senator Cruz’s math was wrong. Rather its that everyone’s assumptions, because that’s what they turned out to be no matter how much empirical evidence there was for calling them conclusions prior to this election, about what self identified conservative Christians wanted in candidates turned out to be wrong. He was working off of the same understanding as everyone else: they were looking for a candidate that actually walked the walk. What we now know is that a minority of them do. The rest are looking for an authoritarian figure. And Trump out authoritarian figured Cruz and everyone else.
Highway Rob
@Adam L Silverman: Libertarians and Greens both seem high to me too. I’ve always assumed it’s because they are.
Brachiator
@germy: It’s amazing that only half are ready to go.
Put together at the last minute and already breaking apart.
Mnemosyne
@Haydnseek:
No worries, I know what you’re saying, but I’ve gotten very good comments from professional writers on my work and positive feedback on my outline, so now I’m at the Butt + Chair = Book stage … which, as we all know, is the hardest one!
Peale
@catclub: Yeah. When polls say that the country is facing a crisis at the moment, I think that crisis is either drummed up by Trump or is actually Trump himself. There is no crisis actually. We are not living in Syria. We are not facing an imminent collapse of the economy. Kids are actually more moral than adults for a change. The economy is not “secretly worse than the statistics say and really its a disaster”.
nonynony
@Adam L Silverman: I think his assumptions were wrong in a different way. I think that a number of Republicans have forgotten that “evangelical voters” are an unholy union of tribal identity Christians, Christian extremists and hardcore racists who use Christianity as a justification for their racism. Cruz overestimated how many were in camp #2 and way underestimated how many were in camps #1 and #3.
Highway Rob
@Seanly: I think the ground game portion of the analysis is key to why my paranoid rantlet is incorrect. One occasionally discussed lesson of the primaries is that Trump hits his numbers in the polls, or misses them by a smidge, but never outperforms them. All the reports were that Cruz won Iowa because of a superior GOTV operation. If the Clinton campaign can repeat that, then there’s your outcome. I just wish, as I did in 2012, that I could Rip Van Winkle it to November.
Haydnseek
@Mnemosyne: I’m really glad to hear it! Yeah, that Butt plus Chair thing…..that’s the killer. Please keep us posted. Can’t wait to see it on Amazon………
GregB
White men of a certain age are having a crisis of self-confidence and they need to be coddled by everyone else or they are going to try to bring the house down on everyone elses’s head.
Mnemosyne
@Haydnseek:
I’m partly thinking of it here because I might start using said pen name around these here parts and link it to my existing nym.
seaboogie
@Roger Moore:
Upside (to him) of being such a complete and utter douche is that many more people can now spell his name correctly. Downside: we turn our heads and spit after writing it.
Darrin Ziliak (formerly glocksman)
Listening to Mayor 9/11 warming up the crowd for Trump reminds me of newsreels from the 1930’s showing Rudolf Hess warming up the crowd for Der Fuhrer’s appearance.
My tweet about his speech last night.
Haydnseek
@Mnemosyne: Good idea. Sounds like smart marketing. I sort of have a thing about names, and pay a lot of attention to them. The first time I saw the White House press secretary on TV, I did a spit take. This guys name really is Josh Earnest…
Brachiator
@Adam L Silverman:
You mean, something like what recently happened in Gabon?
Roger Moore
@Terry chay:
Spoken like someone who doesn’t expect themselves or anyone they know to be a target of said violence. I’d be much happier if all the threats were shown to be a bunch of hot air, so that nobody took the people making them seriously again. That way we’d avoid having to help victims and the people making the threats of violence would lose. If there is violence, I’d be far more worried that it would be effective in scaring politicians into granting concessions to the perpetrators so that we’d be faced with future blackmail threats.
bluefish
@Mnemosyne: Thank you. I needed that today. Me too. Badly.
SoupCatcher
@Roger Moore:
We’ve already seen what a successful terrorist action looks like in this country; it’s our job to teach people about the rise of the Klan and how membership was overt, a benefit to career advancement in many places (including careers in politics), and led to decades of control.
It’s not like Klan members a hundred years ago were ashamed. They were out, proud, and the majority of governing bodies in locales scattered around the country. So, yeah, terrorism has worked here before.
different-church-lady
Wasn’t Giuliani sane at one point?
randy khan
@Kay:
@TaMara (HFG):
I’ve got about 50-50 odds he doesn’t give a speech if he loses. The other 50% is split between a snarling speech about how the election was stolen (30%), a snarling speech about how ‘murica is going to go down the tubes (19%), and the closest he can come to gracious (1%, but that requires rounding up).
There’s probably also a small chance that he sends out Mike Pence instead of going out himself (or that Pence says somebody has to concede and gets stuck with the job). True comedy gold would be if he had Chris Christie do it, but that’s too much to hope for.
Brachiator
Trump’s visit was a big hit in Mexico. From the Guardian:
Bill
@comrade scott’s agenda of rage:
Every single “socially liberal/fiscally conservative” I’ve ever met votes Republican. I guess their love of money is greater than their love of everyone else’s freedom.
Mnemosyne
@different-church-lady:
No. SATSQ.
Barbara
@Anoniminous: Yes, but as with the Blue Collar workers who supported Reagan, they are blaming the wrong people for the loss of their status and looking for the wrong solutions. The logic seems to be, “I don’t like you anyway so I am going to blame you for my distress.” People who are coming to America are not responsible for outsourcing, not under any reasonable perspective.
Barbara
@CONGRATULATIONS!: Well, typically, the number of people who actually vote third party becomes much smaller by election day. Polling two months out is a way of registering a certain amount of hesitation that is hardly a statement of definite intent.
Roger Moore
@Bill:
I consider myself to be socially liberal and fiscally conservative. Of course I think fiscal conservatism means having a plan to pay for the government you’ve asked for, not an undying commitment to tax cuts. The right’s worst perversion of the English language has been their redefinition of fiscal conservatism to mean reflexive opposition to taxes in any form.
Cacti
While the polling margins seem to be tightening up a bit, I’ve noticed one consistent feature about Trump’s numbers.
He has a floor around 40% and a ceiling of about 45%. Regardless of what an individual pollster says about Hillary’s numbers, Trump never moves above 45%.
That’s why I don’t think he’s going to win. There just aren’t enough embittered white voters to put him above 45% nationally.
trnc
Does anyone have any idea about who is allowed to pay for foreign travel by a campaign? I’ve been trying to find an answer, but no dice so far. I assume that’s because no one would ever have thought it would be an issue before Deadbeat Donald and the Magnificent Grift topped the charts.
Brachiator
@Anoniminous:
I don’t understand this carping about a “horse race fantasy.”
Do you really believe that a Clinton victory is a certainty? Based on what? Polls are not prophecies.
@Cacti:
We don’t have national elections. Some swing states still appear to be in play.
Mnemosyne
@Brachiator:
Right now, all indications are that Hillary will win the same states Obama did in 2012 and therefore win the election by a large margin in the electoral college, too. There is no credible polling that shows that she will lose Florida or California.
Cacti
@Brachiator:
Thanks for the clarification, professor.
Which ones are in play that get Trump to 270?
that_guy
@The Dangerman: Major Rudolf Anderson Jr.
Bobby Thomson
@Brachiator: that was because Gabon had actual election fraud. Returns in most provinces were 60-70% for Ping, but the Haut Ogue reported a few days late (to give them time to get the math right) and claimed 99.98% turnout. Ali’s dad Omar got into the job through murder and the atanga doesn’t fall far from the tree.
Turgidson
@rikyrah:
Sargent tries to stay in at least moderately good standing with the Village, despite being a solid lefty and obviously more sympathetic to the Democratic view – he at least tries to give the GOP position a fair heaing even when you can tell he thinks it’s total nonsense. But he is, wisely in my view, letting go of that toehold in the face of the Trumpocalypse. That tweet is his version of “at long last, have you no SHAME?”
Not that the subjects of his derision will care. They’re going to try to go the Kent Brockman route: “And I for one welcome our new Trumpian overlords. I’d like to remind them that as a trusted TV personality, I can be helpful in rounding up others to toil in their FEMA reeducation camps for all who are not white men.”
Mnemosyne
@Cacti:
TPM has a new poll up claiming that Trump is within a couple of points of Hillary in VA. I’ll want to see some internals on that before I freak out.
Brachiator
@Mnemosyne:
Actually, there is some polling by some USC outfit that the LA Times has been using that shows Trump ahead.
“Donald Trump still has a path to victory, but it’s a tough one, USC/L.A. Times poll shows “
MomSense
@Mnemosyne:
I’m stuck there and I’m only trying to write a children’s book.
Barbara
@Mnemosyne: I don’t know about the internals but it’s one of these college polling outfits and it is preceded by two Ipsos polls showing that her lead grew from 7 to 11 points as of August 25. I am never complacent but it really is just one poll.
Brachiator
@Cacti:
It’s not a clarification. It’s a statement of fact that a reference to national percentages is meaningless.
Again, my question is, Do you really believe that a Clinton victory is a certainty? Based on what?
Cacti
@Brachiator:
That L.A. Times poll doesn’t use the methodology followed by…pretty much every polling org in existence. Rather than random sampling, they selected a panel of respondents at the outset, and ask the same people each week who they support. Compared to random sampling, it has averaged a +6 Trump bias throughout the election cycle compared to the national aggregate numbers.
Bobby Thomson
@Brachiator: based on Trump losing women, POC (esp. black voters), Catholics, the college educated, and those under 45. If he doesn’t turn it around with at least one of those groups he.can’t.win.
Mnemosyne
@MomSense:
Trust me, Butt + Chair is THE hardest part of writing. But it’s the only way.
Cacti
@Brachiator:
Based on the fact that no combination of states where Trump is leading or tied puts him at 270 electoral votes.
Your “statement of fact” is non-factual. In 57 historical presidential elections, the candidate with the larger share of the national vote has won the electoral college 55 times. In terms of percentages, the candidate who won the national vote also won the electoral college in 97% of the contests. If your position is that the above numbers aren’t statistically significant, make your case.
Brachiator
This discussion of polling reminds me of a recent essay in the New York Review of Books, “Can the Monster Be Elected,” by Michael Tomasky. He notes the conclusion of some social scientists that the electorate has become polarized into hardened tribes:
So, I suppose that the presidential election is a fight for a few votes. The Democrats appear to have an edge if they can get out a reliably Democratic vote. On the other hand, the GOP still has the edge in the House of Representatives, where gerrymandering has yielded a comfortable number of reliably Republican districts. The Senate can swing one way or another, depending on the political mood.
But can there be any electoral surprise on the presidential level? The LA Times poll shows Trump tracking more strongly than other polls in part because the Times gives more weight to people who say they did not vote in 2008 or 2012, but are energized by Trump. Other polls tend to exclude these people from their pool of likely voters.
SFAW
@Shell:
But Giuliani’s father served. Well, not in the military, but serving time is almost the same.
SFAW
@different-church-lady:
Perhaps. But he has always been an asshole.
SFAW
Thread’s already dead, I guess, or close to it, but:
Relative to yet another case of projection, albeit a longstanding one, it appears that Deadbeat Donnie can now be called Crooked Donnie, since his Foundation apparently gave illegal campaign contributions, and also failed to report said contributions to the IRS.
It seems unlikely that any of our Amerikanskiy Правда outlets will do anything about this, since Hitlary still has 17 e-mails that don’t mention Benghazi or some such, but one can always hope SOMEONE IN THE FUCKING MSM would actually start reporting on this until Crooked Donnie releases his taxes.
Villago, wherever you are: I appreciate your nym more and more, every day.
Brachiator
@Cacti:
Yep. The Times stubbornly stands by its methods. And they have been spectacularly wrong before. Their polling indicated that Arnold Schwarzenegger would not win the California recall race. It’s an outlier, but still of some interest.
Ella in New Mexico
Been visiting NY and Ellis Island today, and all I can say is this latest anti-immigrant mood in America has been done before. But we always seem to survive it, and the beautiful, determined faces on these walls who endured so much hardship to come here are testament to Good rising above Evil.
What I think was most inspiring was listening to literally dozens of languages spoken by tourists from almost everywhere in the world, all in amazement at the sight of the Statue of Liberty.
They still come here, we keep growing and progressing in spite of the Know Nothings. Somehow, I know deep down that this time will be no different.
Adam L Silverman
@Darrin Ziliak (formerly glocksman): Wrong hand! (I think that’s also and old Hogan’s Heroes joke).
Darrin Ziliak (formerly glocksman)
@Adam L Silverman:
That it is on both counts, and Major Hochstettler thanks you for your attention.