First presidential debate:
Lester Holt, Anchor, NBC Nightly News
Monday, September 26, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY
This debate will have six sections of 15 minutes each on topics chosen by the moderators.Vice presidential debate:
Elaine Quijano, Anchor, CBSN and Correspondent, CBS News
Tuesday, October 4, Longwood University, Farmville, VA
This debate will consist of nine sections of ten minutes ueach.Second presidential debate:
Martha Raddatz, Chief Global Affairs Correspondent and Co-Anchor of “This Week,” ABC and Anderson Cooper, Anchor, CNN
Sunday, October 9, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO
This debate will be town-hall style (think chairs and not podiums). Members of the audience will be able to ask questionsThird presidential debate:
Chris Wallace, Anchor, Fox News Sunday
Wednesday, October 19, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, Las Vegas, NV
This will be the same as the first presidential debate
I can’t even begin to contemplate what these debates will look like…but I’m sure as long as the Cheeto doesn’t begin drooling and piss himself, the media will declare him Presidential.
If you need something more pleasant to wrap up your Friday, try this:
or this…
Open thread….
Mnemosyne
What are the current Vegas odds on Trump actually showing up to the debates? 100-1?
Mnemosyne
Really? You guys left me here all alone with srv?
Thanks a lot. That’s the last time I go out with you assholes.
Adam L Silverman
@srv: Amazing what happens when you actually go to 538:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
Chance of winning
FiveThirtyEight
Hillary Clinton
72.2%
Donald Trump
27.7%
Major Major Major Major
Everybody Sam Wang Tonight
Adam L Silverman
@Major Major Major Major: Shouldn’t that be Sam Wang Chung Tonight?
PhoenixRising
Aw, Mnen, I’m sorry. Stepped out for a bit to see a man about a horse (no, really, unless one of you wants favorable Juicer pricing on a lovely thoroughbred mare…good mind, smart, fast as lightning and doesn’t like to jump).
I won’t take that bet. He’s showing up for the first one, and the Villagers will declare him the winner if he doesn’t soil himself. He will be described as having made a successful pivot, appearing presidential, etc if he avoids mention of the size of his genitals. He will then feel he has won, and come eagerly for the next one.
At which Hillz will slay him dead with the technique of offering him her time. She did it to Trey Gowdy and that slimy low-rent Draco Malfoy hasn’t and won’t recover. ‘No’ is a complete sentence, a fact that The Donald has never had reason to learn.
rikyrah
@srv:
Did they not change their methodology without revealing that they did?
Uh huh
Uh huh
Major Major Major Major
@PhoenixRising: The media was waiting for a pivot when he gave his convention speech but he let them down. They were begging for a pivot so bad this week that they wrote about one before he even gave his speech. He still didn’t do it. He can’t help himself.
Adam L Silverman
@PhoenixRising:
Is this a reference to the horse or the guy?
amk
@srv: Idiot’s world.
Omnes Omnibus
@srv: Have you ever considered not being a silly person?
You really are good at the archives here. Own that. Or be an asshole whose assholishness destroys any credibility you have at your actual skill.
PhoenixRising
@Major Major Major Major: But they’ll say he did.
He presaged multiple violations of due process and international law on Wednesday and they refused to describe what they could see and hear.
Hillary knows this, so her prep will rely heavily on suckering him into attacking when he needs to look serious.
Adam L Silverman
I’ve got FX channel on. They just ran an add for the first debate. On Fox News/branded as the Fox News debate. Methinks someone in advertising doesn’t know how to read a press release or a calendar.
Major Major Major Major
@PhoenixRising: They’ll try to say he did, but they can’t if he does what he did at the convention or this week, when he spoke insanely and loudly enough that everybody noticed. I really don’t think he can help himself. He’s that bad.
PhoenixRising
@Adam L Silverman: Meeting the man for the first time tomorrow so I can’t say. The horse is a descendant of Big Red himself, won 10 of her 28 starts and is in her prime for breeding; the man has a good reputation among breeders.
The horse kind. I can’t speculate as to his reputation among straight people, before you ask.
Mnemosyne
@PhoenixRising:
I still think Hillary needs to get an improv comedian to be her debate prep partner. Someone who will be able to pull completely insane bullshit out of their asses so she can practice her dead-eyed stare and her quips.
If she works in, “There you go again,” I will send an extra $100 to the campaign.
Calouste
@srv: In English? Seems like a great way to make sure you accurately measure the Latino vote.
PhoenixRising
@rikyrah: Yep. Celinda Lake explained on Tweeting Machine that she had to un-fuck-up their model (obviously I’m rephrasing not quoting) to account for the commitment level from the voters they would typically sample as ‘registered but unlikely’.
Because they were giving answers to ‘how likely are you to vote?’ along the lines of Cole’s ‘I will crawl across burning broken glass to vote for Clinton’–Democrats and Latino/Black samples had to be adjusted.
ETA: IOW, these voters will save the nation and get no credit for it because the saner 5% of GOP voters will be part of the landslide me-tooing with ‘I finally figured out my party is fascist’…or as people of color probably call it, Tuesday.
James E Powell
@Mnemosyne:
There’s no way Trump misses the first debate. No way.
If he didn’t already know it, the last two weeks have shown him and anyone else paying attention that the corporate press/media will not allow him to destroy himself. They will prop him up and they will continue to invent scandals to keep Clinton from running away.
He surely knows that he is losing badly and that he cannot win. But Clinton can lose and in order to produce that Trump needs a spectacular event. He needs Clinton to meltdown or go crazy on TV when everybody watching. He needs to provoke her and his only chance to do that is the first debate.
I say the first debate because if he fails to get what he wants I can see him refusing to do any more. He will invent a bias or some other perceived flaw and back out.
Major Major Major Major
@PhoenixRising: Good friend of mine has a cutter line-bred from Doc Bar. Total asshole. (The horse.)
Feebog
While the Donald was flitting around the western hemisphere making a fool of himself, HRC gave a serious speech to the American Legion on Wednesday and attended several fundraisers. So the media asks where is she? Did it ever occur to the morons in the MSM that part of this week might have been devoted to debate prep? Actual prep for a presidential debate takes a lot of time; reading, getting briefings, discussing issues with advisors and simulations. The Donald can’t be bothered with debate prep. He will wing it, as usual, and the result will be the Hindenburg II.
cokane
If 2012 is any guide, the first one is the most crucial. This seemed to be kind of true in this year’s primaries too — Trump made a big splash in the first debate, and the rest was basically history.
No idea what to expect, as this year has taught me. I just know that Trump (and Republicans generally) get held to a bullshit lower standard, where many mainstream outlets focus on their optics or how impressive they were as opposed to doing the real fucking work of journalism — fact checking. The bush league strikeout by major news outlets in the first 2012 debate is the only thing that gave Romney a fighting chance in a race that should’ve been a blowout, if honesty was a virtue.
Mnemosyne
@James E Powell:
IMO, the fact that the MSM is propping him up is the reason he won’t bother to show up. He knows they’ll cover for him no matter what, so why bother to go to all that effort? He’ll just have a speech where he blusters about how he’s not even willing to be in the same room as Crooked Hillary and the commentary will all be, Does America hate Hillary as much as Trump does, or even more?
cokane
@Mnemosyne: You’re living in an isolated bubble if you think Trump doesn’t want to (at the very least) do the first debate. I could see him backing out of the third if the post-first spin is terrible. But you have not been following the plot if you think he’s at all skittish right now.
Major Major Major Major
I’m leaning towards @cokane‘s position right now. For the same reason that Trump will probably never pivot–Trump does what Trump wants, and Trump wants to be Trump. He’s not some sort of savant, or master manipulator, or whatever, he’s just an idiot and an asshole.
?BillinGlendaleCA
I went on one of my adventures today, the Shakespeare/Disney adventure(East Hollywood/Los Feliz). I remembered that the Labianca murders(by the Manson Family) were in Los Feliz. Turns out that I was a couple of blocks from the house they were murdered in and it’s next door to the former convent that Katy Perry’s buying.
seaboogie
@Mnemosyne:
I’m in. Especially if she says “There you go again…pause…”Donald”.
Major Major Major Major
@srv: The Brexit polls were accurate, you fuckstick moron. They had a high (and stated) margin of error.
James E Powell
@Mnemosyne:
I could imagine a Trump no-show; he’s already complained about the schedule & set up. He could demand changes to the format and when they were not accepted, he refuses to show. The corporate press/media would then convene “balanced” panels on whether the debates were rigged or not, whether debates should be held or not, and so on. Then Trump would pull some stunt that totally changes the subject.
But I still think he shows up with a pocket full of character attacks and “scandal” allegations. My money’s on Hillary to show up prepared and poised.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym
@efgoldman: There are five MLB teams with worse records than Oakland’s.
Peale
I don’t know. When the topic of the debate turns to immigration, he’ll probably respond to her statements with descriptions of rape and murder and it will all sound alarming.
Steeplejack
Easy-going Santana (with Michelle Branch): “The Game of Love.”
Mai.naem.mobile
I am a little concerned about Chris Wallace being the last debate because obviously they’ll want to screw with Hilz. But… that’s assuming that Murdoch doesn’t want to also destroy Trumpy.Obviously Hilz left Wallace for the last as a carrot for Trumpy.
RadioOne
@cokane: I don’t think it’s the most crucial, but the first debate will obviously be the hardest one for Clinton to win with the media if she’s still the favorite and ahead in the polls. The underdog in the race almost always wins the first debate in the media because of low expectations and the hope of a horse race.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@efgoldman: OK, I think it’s safe for you to get your beauty sleep now.
Major Major Major Major
I finished my second draft of part 2 of my book, I’m at 43,000 words or so. Yay! Coming along nicely.
seaboogie
@Steeplejack: I am becoming convinced that our consciousness is evolving, and the *angry* white guys are not happy with losing their free pass…so I welcome the sunlight on the festering wound, and the music – and I get to know more good music and free my formerly well-behaved whitebread soul. Thanks, Steep.
ETA: I know how to observe nature and find wonderful new things there – you help me to find new music, which is harder to come by for me than interesting insects showing up. Monastic life.
Joeff
Public perceptions of debates often deviate from MSM CW and are more accurate.
Also in 2012 Obama got knocked down in 1st debate but came back to shred Romney.
seaboogie
@Major Major Major Major: Congrats!
Steeplejack
@seaboogie:
Santana, “Europa” (live, 1976).
That Fillmore poster that Raven linked to in the earlier post showed Yusef Lateef as one of the openers for Santana. Here’s his version of the “Love Theme from Spartacus.”
seaboogie
@Steeplejack: Oh…see now you are bringing me home…I played flute in JH/HS band…had a Jethro Tull songbook – but I was never a real musician. I did recognize Yusef Lateef’s name as a flautist ‘tho – and deep thanks to you for re-introducing me to him.
Moving into new digs day after tomorrow. Sitting, meditating and music will be a big part of the new phase of my life. Places get smaller as consciousness gets bigger. Interesting journey, this life has been – and I’m going with the flow…
Steeplejack
@seaboogie:
Some Marin County music: David Crosby, “Tamalpais High.”
Jesse Colin Young, “Ridgetop.”
Steeplejack
@seaboogie:
One last one, and I’m out. Carlos Santana’s brother Jorge was in the band Malo. “Suavecito” (1972).
. . . Eh, my intuition is telling me to finish up with Jefferson Airplane, “It’s No Secret.” Kinda rounds out that late-’60s San Francisco vibe.
Good luck on your move!
Groucho48
Trump will find it virtually impossible to avoid talking over/interrupting/insulting/condescension towards Clinton. She will be ready for it and she will flip it around.
There will also be long stretches where she absolutely crushes him on policy.
The MSM reaction will be that she made the mistake of getting down in the dirt with Trump and that her detailed explanations of policy bored viewers who felt more comfortable with Trump’s visceral simple solutions. They will rule it a win for Trump, then will be shocked and mystified as Trump’s support with women and minorities drops another 10 points.
The next day, they will misinterpret more emails and discuss whether the Clinton Foundation is worse than the Nazi Party.
seaboogie
@Steeplejack: Thank you dearie – you are my most bestest personal deejay…good slumber to you.
Steeplejack
@seaboogie:
Herbie Mann (with Cornell Dupree on Guitar), “Sunny.”
seaboogie
@Steeplejack: Grace Slick had a boutique down on Ark Row in Tiburon – well before I lived around there – where I met Tom Snyder….prolly just a few feet from her joint back in the day. Sometimes my life confounds even me. I’m from Minnesota. This doesn’t happen – until it does.
ETA: And my late husband was a young sound technician on the Rock Train across Canada with Janis Joplin and The Grateful Dead. Curiously, I am learning so much about music – as a novice, today.
MoeLarryAndJesus
@Adam L Silverman: No.
Adam L Silverman, where humor goes to die..
MoeLarryAndJesus
@Adam L Silverman: “Methinks”
He’s never going to stop, is he? What dreaded Montessori outpost created this horror?
scav
Polls don’t matter so very very much in the post-Brexit world that srv frantically drags one out in position 2, thus attempting to maintain an imagined vital but slight lead in utter pointlessness of contributions and flameyness of factual comments over his cherished orange furred orb.
I’m somehow reminded that things appear larger than they really are when reflected in the rearview mirrors.
JGabriel
That sucks. I can’t believe they’re giving the third and last debate debate to a moderator as clearly biased as Chris Wallace.
I’m beginning to wonder if people in the media really are trying to rig the election for Trump. I mean, seriously, Chris fucking Wallace?
raven
Stil on Carlos, I started a good one. Now, can I go back to sleep?
seaboogie
@raven: Good work, Raven – rest well…
Aleta
@Steeplejack: That one was fantastically cooling. Thanks for all the ones above too. Tthat JC Young one surprised me ; + is great. Seaboogie is right, you’re a personal dj and introduce us to melodic intelligent surprising stuff. Now back to sleep I hope. Thanks for dreamy waking interlude. .
Applejinx
@seaboogie: The Festival Express? That’s awesome :)
Frankensteinbeck
Trump does not think on his feet well, and there’s no teleprompter in a debate. He can manage schoolyard level taunts, and that’s it. Imagine an hour of his sad, sad tweets, but on stage.
@Omnes Omnibus:
Srv is deliberately a silly person. I’m convinced of it. Too many comments aren’t conservative, they’re just the weirdest thing anybody could say on the topic.
@efgoldman:
Smirking. She’s quite good at it. Her condescension will drive him to repetitive elementary school spluttering.
laura
@seaboogie: Festival Express! Wow, what a journey that must have been:
Janis,
Grateful Dead
The Band
Buddy Guy
Ian and Sylvia
The footage of scads of hours of film was discovered and edited into a swell documentary. Worth a viewing if you get the chance.
Gee
@srv:
We accept your surrender.
grandpa john
@srv: Poll is flawed, check crosstabs, IBD poll shows independent vote at almost 2 to 1 for trump. other polls during the same time period have independent breakdown as almost equal , some slightly more for trump others slightly more for Clinton