It’s pretty clear that nine of ten words in media coverage of this election will be about Trump, and the 10th will be about how Hillary was mean to him. This means that Congressional races, which are all but ignored in a normal election year, are getting even less attention. So we asked an expert, David Nir, who runs Kos Elections, to put together a list of competitive seats for this election. Here’s his best shot, which both DougJ and I think is reasonable:
Senate:
Katie McGinty (PA)
Maggie Hassan (NH)
Catherine Cortez Masto (NV)
Deborah Ross (NC)
Jason Kander (MO)
House:
Morgan Carroll (CO-06)
Monica Vernon (IA-01)
Jim Mowrer (IA-03)
Angie Craig (MN-02)
Rep. Rick Nolan (MN-08)
Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01)
Jackie Rosen (NV-03)
Ruben Kihuen (NV-04)
Colleen Deacon (NY-24)
Steve Santarsiero (PA-08)
Tom Nelson (WI-08)
As David would be first to point out, there’s a lot of controversy about which races are actually winnable this year, and many of these candidates could lose. But let’s look at just one of these races, Colleen Deacon in NY-24. That seat (which was NY-25 prior to 2012) has bopped around between Democrat Dan Maffei and a generic Republican during the last couple of cycles. With Obama at the top of the ticket, Maffei wins easily, since Obama won that district handily in ’08 and ’12. On the off years, Maffei, who was a lackluster fundraiser and mediocre candidate, lost. Colleen Deacon is a single mom and staffer for Kirsten Gillibrand. She has a real shot this cycle, and perhaps someone who knows what it means to work to support a family single-handedly can work hard enough to win in an off year.
Here’s the link to our ActBlue campaign of winnable races. If you have cash to spare, throw some this way:
PsiFighter37
No Patricky Murphy or Ted Strickland? Guess you liberals really are a reality-loving crew. /srv
PF37 +5
Princess
What about Brad Schneider running against Bob Dold in IL-10? They have basically traded it back and forth between each other the last few cycles, and Schneider wins in presidential years. The margin is always 2 or 3%.
MattF
Note also that Sam Wang’s Princeton Election Consortium site has a list (in the right hand margin) of Senate races where contributions will be effective.
TheMightyTrowel
*bookmarked for next payday*
patroclus
It’s nice to see Duckworth-Kirk as not even competitive enough to make this list.:-)
observer
John Katko (R) Colleen Deacon’s opponent, seems to have a pretty large war chest and the local media lap up his every word. He loves to pretend to be independent by criticizing Trump and pretending to be against various House bills (while voting for them). I think Deacon will have a tough hill to climb – gerrymandering has diluted the Syracuse vote with the angry white Trumpsters that makeup a large part of rural upstate NY.
Betty Cracker
Patrick Murphy really could shit-can Lil’ Marco! So fuck this list! ?
Omnes Omnibus
Tom Nelson is a pretty good guy.
PsiFighter37
@Betty Cracker: Seems like your state is full of too many idiots and will send Marco back to a sweet payday for 6 more years.
BGinCHI
IL Senate?
BGinCHI
@patroclus: Ahhh, I see….
msdc
@PsiFighter37: I don’t know, I can see Murphy putting in the hustle to knock off low-energy Marco. It’s too bad he had to spend the entire fucking year fighting off hedge-fund manager, wife-beater, and netroots darling Alan Grayson.
mistermix
@MattF: There’s a lot of overlap between this list and Sam’s.
All: If your favorite isn’t on here, by all means give directly to them! This is just an interesting alternative for those of us who have some cash after giving to our favorite races.
sharl
@MattF: Ah, you beat me to it – direct link to Sharon Machlis’ site. Her site setup makes comparisons to mistermix’s list a bit cumbersome, but I did the 250-mile radius around DC-area, and looked a bit beyond that.* I’m surprised at the lack of common campaigns. Machlis’ map is based on Cook Political Report analysis. Maybe I’ll revisit this stuff later when I have time, to compare methodologies of Machlis and Act Blue.
*What Machlis map says are competitive races within 250(+)-mile radius around DC listed below (nothing in South except VA, everything else PA/NJ and north). Some districts in West, Great Lakes states also showing at Machlis’ national map, but I didn’t check those.
VA-10 LuAnn Bennett (D) vs Barbara Comstock (R, incumbent)
PA-08 Steve Santarsiero (D) vs Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
NJ-05 Josh Gottheimer (D) vs Scott Garrett (R, incumbent)
NY-03 Tom Suozzi (D) vs Jack Martins (or Philip Pidot ???, both R)
NY-19 Zephyr Teachout (D) vs John Faso (R)
NY-22 Kim Myers (D) vs Claudia Tenney (R)
NY-23 John Plumb (D) vs Tom Reed (R, incumbent)
{What’s the deal with NY-03, “Jack Martins or Philip Pidot” as GOP candidate??}
mistermix
@observer: Agreed, but Maffei did win it in ’12, after gerrymandering, 49-43, with a Green candidate taking 8%. Turnout in the ’14 race was 80K less than in ’12. It’s winnable.
sharl
Oh, and thanks for doing this mm; Congress matters a lot! {Still pouty ‘n’ shit about Citizens United…}
phantomist
MI -(1) Largest district by area east of the Mississippi.
Bart Stupak’s old district (good on everything but abortion).
Democrats spend nothing up here, to know who the Democrat is is to see negative commercials from republican pacs. Current Rep. Benishek (R) is retiring. In the last Pres. election 2012 it was the second or third closest house race with Benishek beating McDowell 167,060- 165,179.
A little spending would go a long way up here.
The Democrat running in this open seat is Lon Johnson, he wasn’t my first choice in the primary, but neither was Hillary.
People who want to contribute to Dem’s who have a chance but can’t find good pick-up opportunities, here you go.
Miss Bianca
I would add Gail Schwartz, CO District 3, to the “winnable” list. That seat, currently held by corporate tool Scott Tipton, was in the hands of John Salazar (Ken’s brother) till the 2010 debacle.
Princess
@mistermix: Oh, absolutely. My mention of Il-10 wasn’t a complaint. I’m just interested in the logic behind the list.
PsiFighter37
@msdc: Dude floats lighter than Ali. Yeah, he’s better than Grayson, but that’s not saying much. No accomplishments and a former Republican with no progressive boba fides.
Democrats in Florida need to figure out how to win shit. They have an abysmally awful record outside of Bill Nelson.
observer
@mistermix: I forgot about the turnout differential in 2012. The DC Dan commercial (fairly accurate IMO) and his aversion to actually being in Syracuse outside of election season along with low turnout sealed his fate. Nobody has polled the Deacon / Katko race
Prescott Cactus
Much further down ballot but an important and symbolic race is Sheriff Joe Arpaio. vs Paul Penzone.
David Nir also has a post up at Kos about this race.
Please consider…
msdc
@PsiFighter37: Kicking incumbent representative Allen West out of Congress is accomplishment enough in my book.
As for progressive bona fides… it’s Florida. Murphy would fit squarely on the “more” side of “more and better Democrats,” but as long he votes for Dem majority leaders and judicial nominees he’s already a better use of that seat than Marco Rubio will ever be.
sharl
@phantomist: In my non-expert opinion, one of the best “amateur” analyses of a Congressional district I’ve ever read was of MI-01. It was authored by “Rayne” at the now defunct Firedoglake blog, and was posted in late 2009, in response to the impending 2010 election and what then-Congressman Bart Stupak had just done back then during crafting of legislation for President Obama’s ACA, an act which (rightfully) pissed off a lot of Democrats nationwide.
Fortunately Rayne’s post was preserved at the site that succeeded FDL; unfortunately, her post wasn’t very optimistic with respect to women’s health advocacy coming from MI-01 (as you noted): The Bad News: You’re Stuck with Stupak.
I gotta depart for awhile, but would be interested what you think of Rayne’s description of your home district, e.g., is it still accurate/relevant in 2016. [I’ll swing back here after the thread is dead, to check on further comments on this or anything else…]
piratedan
very surprised not to see Kirkpatrick vs McCain up there, afaik all of the recent polling shows that within the margin or error
also Heinz vs McSally (AZ – 02) should be competitive, McSally won on a recount by 167 votes, so I have no idea on why that isn’t on the list. She hasn’t done anything to show that she’s not falling in line with the GOP agenda of doom
divF
For those of you looking to pick a fight in California, Darrell Issa (R, CA-49) has a quite viable Dem. opponent in Doug Applegate. Some of our SoCal Juicers have pointed this out previously, but it is worth saying again.
Prescott Cactus
@piratedan: Was hoping to see Kirkpatrick too.
pat
What, no Russ Feingold vs Ron Johnson??? I’ve been canvassing for Hillary and Russ for months now ….. If Hillary takes Wisconsin, I think she will bring Russ back to the Senate. Ron Johnson is basically dumb as a box of rocks…..
FlipYrWhig
@PsiFighter37:
Next to Jar Jar Binks, Boba Fides is the worst character in the Star Wars prequels.
Hob
I just chipped in to the ActBlue pool. Seems like solid choices and I’ve been putting it off too long.
Also @divF, thanks for reminding me about CA-49. I don’t want to get my hopes up, but getting rid of Issa would be a wonderful thing. I will try to do something for Applegate.
RaflW
@pat: I’ve given to Russ a couple times this cycle. Neighboring state, and my partner’s family live in WI and have suffered (and done doorknocking and other solid campaign work!) the past several years.
I suspect Russ isn’t on there because he’s actually got a pretty solid lead. Never hurts to give if one has the capacity to good guys like Russ, but I gather these on the BJ Act Blue are the more swing races?
Smalla
@Omnes Omnibus: I live in Madison, so Mark Pocan is my rep. I would love to see Tom Nelson bring WI-08 back to the blue column though. When we drove through this area a few weeks ago (Door County vacation), I only saw signs for the opponent. I’ve seen a couple of sites though list this race as competitive. You think Nelson has a chance?
burnspbesq
Thanks for the reminder. The town I grew up in is now in NJ-5, and Scott Garrett is really an odious piece of shit. Money going there, as well as to CA-49 (close enough to think about volunteering) and to NC-GOV. I already have a Roy Cooper t-shirt, but thankfully I can afford to do more.
J R in WV
So far we’ve hit up Anne Kirkpatrick against Senator Fussbudget (R-USN), Tammy Duckworth against Kirk (I think), Emily’s List, a forever monthly to Planned Parenthood, a bigger monthly to Hillary til the election, a little money to the local Hillary office, planning to do time there on phones, if my knee holds out, canvassing in Ohio some.
That’s a big if, though. Today it’s fine, but I’ve stayed off it for three days. Mrs J is having her knee done in late October, so I can’t start my knees until next spring. We have a trip bought and paid for in May, so it has to last until June. Ouch!
sharl
@phantomist: Lon Johnson looks like he might have at least a plausible shot at winning MI-01 for the Dems, though he’s not favored (MI-01 “leans GOP” according to Cook Political Report). As you noted, there will be no leftie liberal coming from that district in the foreseeable future, but this guy doesn’t look too bad, at least to an outsider. He has a bunch of ties with national and state Dems, so I’m wondering if he is regarded with some suspicion by the regular folks in that district.
I’m still researching him, especially opinion on him from newspapers and various Dem factions within that district. Although that’s a strongly anti-choice district, I see he was endorsed by Planned Parenthood of Michigan for his unsuccessful 2012 statehouse run, so I’m wondering if he is now getting beaten up over that. If he refuses to support Nancy Pelosi for Dem leader (or whomever the GOP is demonizing at the time), it might be a deal-breaker for me. Otherwise I might just send him a contribution.
My Dad hails from those parts, and I’ve enjoyed my visits up that way, so there’s a sentimental value beyond the politics…
Stan
@observer: Right – I don’t live in this district but I am nearby and the level of Trump support there is scary.
WaterGirl
If you don’t think the senate race in Illinois is winnable, I’m gonna go slit my wrists now.
phantomist
@sharl:
Johnson has all the right endorsements (Dingell, conyers, UAW. planned parent hood) and his wife worked on the Obama re-election campaign, so he definitely won’t be a thorn in side of leadership.
The campaigns are both accusing each other of being carpetbaggers, of course one is far more true than the other.
The other big issue is an oil pipeline running across the straits of Mackinac. Enbridge has increased the pressure on the 2 pipelines which now move 23 million gallons a day and would be an ecological nightmare if it were to ever leak. This is pumping canadian oil through Michigan to Canada via port huron. Of course Michiganders are aware of Enbridge following the company’s oil spill into the Kalamazoo River – the nation’s largest-ever land-based oil spill. Anyway, Johnson has been strongly against this pipeline, which was probably the issue that won the primary for him, as his opponent was late in coming out against it, he’s also against fracking.
His opponent is a retired Military officer, who retired in 2009 in Louisiana and stated he loved it and would retire there. He wants to privatize the V.A., social security and Medicare.
gngr
I work with the Mowrer campaign, and I can say that the support that Balloon juice has directed us has made an incredible difference. The last two days has been truly humbling knowing how generous people all across the country are. Please please please keep it up. This is a grass roots campaign, and the only way that this is successful is if everyone does what they can. Tell your friends, email blast your contacts. Spread that contribution link around and let people know Mowrer can and will win if we have the resources we need. jimforiowa.com
Adam L Silverman
@gngr: If you all need any national security, defense, foreign policy/strategy inputs for the campaign, please shoot me an email using the connect tool off to the right.