My baseline assumptions for Debate 1:
—Pundits/reporters 60-70% likely to say Trump wins.
—Instant polls 60-70% likely to say Clinton wins.— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 15, 2016
NBC is streaming next Monday’s presidential debate in VR https://t.co/y4PUK9kPmQ pic.twitter.com/bEH9y2xvr7
— The A.V. Club (@TheAVClub) September 22, 2016
I feel like this may not be the thing that launches VR into the mainstream https://t.co/V9DhSvIOZA
— Dan Pfeiffer (@danpfeiffer) September 22, 2016
Most predictable prediction ever: in Monday debate Trump will have to answer for Birtherism and HRC for "deplorables." Neither will do well.
— Jeff B/DDHQ (@EsotericCD) September 21, 2016
One will have to answer for promoting racist lies; the other for observing that his supporters believed those lies. https://t.co/iRQXSf6uQY
— Kevin M. Kruse (@KevinMKruse) September 21, 2016
One way Clinton is preparing for Trump: Watching a highlight reel of his primary debates & noting what agitated him https://t.co/AmwNRT2KG5
— Dan Merica (@danmericaCNN) September 20, 2016
I don't care how much Trump's campaign tries to lower expectations. In a 90 minute 1-on-1 debate without interruption he'll underperform.
— Daniel Drezner (@dandrezner) September 23, 2016
I think we can agree that Donald Trump has been preparing his whole life to yell at a woman for 90 minutes.
— LOLGOP (@LOLGOP) September 23, 2016
Hillary wanted to rattle Trump big-time and it worked—just imagine if she'd picked someone from H&R Block!
— Gabe Ortíz (@TUSK81) September 25, 2016
Trump camp: @HillaryClinton's cramming her head with "microchips and binders" for debate https://t.co/BUgeYpwk2n | Getty pic.twitter.com/Eg5Fnywyfy
— POLITICO (@politico) September 23, 2016
In the debate, Clinton actually having coherent positions and command of facts will be spun as "smug."
— Bob Schooley (@Rschooley) September 23, 2016
Source tells @KatyTurNBC Trump's debate prep is minimal; top advisors sit in a circle and throw questions at him.
— Ali Vitali (@alivitali) September 23, 2016
This sounds like a lot of debate prep to me. https://t.co/GIPVfq3B7I
— Daniel Drezner (@dandrezner) September 23, 2016
Fact this is showing up in multiple outlets proves this is concerted Trump campaign expectation lowering spin. And media is falling for it https://t.co/o7i9b6klGG
— Adam Blickstein (@AdamBlickstein) September 23, 2016
May also be that those who could conceivably be blamed are distancing themselves. Hard to now take any credit if he actually does well. https://t.co/faYOvr1YzW
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) September 23, 2016
Your daily reminder that the GOP presidential nominee has the attention span of a flea https://t.co/aKJ2neFaqi pic.twitter.com/qhlbn75qb2
— Michael Cohen (@speechboy71) September 24, 2016
Trump campaign: Our candidate is like a brain-damaged chimpanzee, but way less likable https://t.co/nmKzEe2sWW
— Jonathan Chait (@jonathanchait) September 23, 2016
Don't fall for this. Right now Bornstein's filling Trump with Adderall & Ludovico'ing him into replacing sexism with Frank Luntz soundbites https://t.co/JexgF3VK6m
— Zeddonymous (@ZeddRebel) September 23, 2016
Idea that Trump is not prepping for debate is silly. Of course he is. He's not studying facts. He's studying how to make facts not matter.
— Sarah Kendzior (@sarahkendzior) September 25, 2016
On Fox & Friends, Trump says moderator's job isn't to fact-check: “I certainly don’t think you want Candy Crowley again." pic.twitter.com/rBo6cgpzyd
— Michael Calderone (@mlcalderone) September 22, 2016
Tells you something when one of the candidates' goals is to be allowed to lie a lot. https://t.co/TPj5HgqoGD
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) September 22, 2016
Has any presidential candidate ever works the refs the way Trump is with debate moderators? Kind of awesome. https://t.co/l0Shb9N9nh
— adam nagourney (@adamnagourney) September 22, 2016
Yes, Bush. But since you were one of the refs they successfully worked, understandable you wouldn’t remember https://t.co/YBOSLXmAfk
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) September 23, 2016
.@KellyannePolls on Trump: "He's a brilliant debater…He’s like the Babe Ruth of debating. He really shows up & swings & does a great job."
— Philip Rucker (@PhilipRucker) September 25, 2016
"He wants to remind people that he's a great counterpuncher," @KellyannePolls says on @ThisWeekABC about Trump/Flowers tweet
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) September 25, 2016
tbh it felt more like he took an angry swing, missed, and fell into the hors d'oeuvres table https://t.co/wBxM1oXpFv
— daveweigel (@daveweigel) September 25, 2016
redshirt
“Clinton goes hysterical at Trump line”
geg6
Obama on Anthony Bourdain right now. In Vietnam.
N M
How much does the blog earn when I click Trump or newsmax ads?
? Martin
Supporters of both sides will think their candidate won. Trump will lie but point toward some inherent truths that his supporters will respond emotionally to. Never tell your wife that by virtue of her being a pound lighter than the median female weight for someone her size, she technically isn’t fat – the correct answer is ‘of course you don’t look fat’ to every variation of the question.
We will think Clinton won because she pointed to specific policy issues that the majority of experts believe will work. She will focus on measurable problems in society and put aside the ones that data suggests shouldn’t be priorities. She will call out his lies.
I’m guessing the media will back Trump on this because they never really understood the emotional appeal of GWB but recognize the fact that he won twice and therefore, there must be something to this gut thing even when it’s totally racist and more than a little fascist.
Bobby Thomson
@redshirt: the articles are already written
“Clinton shrieks in response to Trump accusations, firing wildly in several different directions.”
OR
“Low-energy, soulless Clinton ignores Trump broadside, repeating the same points robotically.”
Or both. Yeah, most likely both. Since some media outlets still hype them, get ready to freep the shit out of those post-debate online polls.
? Martin
@geg6: The writeup was interesting as well. If you can dig it up, the Top Gear Vietnam Special is my favorite from the series. The three guys go to Vietnam, act like the idiots they pretend to be, and reveal a really amazing country.
Mnemosyne
I am really enjoying the musical episodes of “Bob’s Burgers.” They had another one on tonight.
Major Major Major Major
I think Silver is likely right. Other than that, Hillary is due a small poll bump this week anyway so she’ll get one and that will be spun as whatever. I doubt the debate will matter much.
eric
Dana Houle hit that one HARD. Yikes. that will leave a mark
Another Scott
Since it hasn’t been posted by a front-pager recently, remember, there’s a List of Winnable Down-Ballot Races that could use your contribution. If you can spare it.
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
@geg6: That must be very uncomfortable for Anthony Bourdain. You’d have thought the White House travel office would have arranged for chairs.
Major Major Major Major
@Adam L Silverman: did you just call Obama fat?
Adam L Silverman
@Major Major Major Major: Most certainly not. But he is very tall and lean muscle is denser – and he seems to be mostly lean muscle. I can’t imagine he’s enjoying it very much either. Bourdain does not appear to be made out of temperpedic material.
Mai.naem.mobile
Does anybody think the debate is going to change any opinions or gain any votes for either side? The comments I see on Twitter and elsewhere from Trumpkins always excuse whatever awful thing Trumpy does. I don’t see current Clinton voters voting for Trump period. Unless there’s a total complete meltdown on either side the debate is just going to be ratings getter.
chopper
i’m sure people in trump’s campaign have all sorts of ideas and strategies but that assumes trump gives a shit. he doesn’t. he’s just gonna wing that mother.
Geoduck
@? Martin: “Do you think [Jeremy’s] enjoying his first biking experience?” “I AM THE MOST MISERABLE HUMAN BEING ALIVE!”
Omnes Omnibus
@Mai.naem.mobile: There are people who are just starting to really tune in. Not everyone is a politics nerd. We need to recognize that.
Steppan
@Geoduck:
I think that episode may well be the greatest Top Gear episode of all time.
? Martin
@Steppan: It is absolutely the greatest episode of all time. Bolivia Special is quite good too, but they do such a good job revealing Vietnam and what life is like there and the people to the audience.
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman: re The Family Dynamics in Israeli politics that you mentioned the other night. ZeddRebel via Cole’s Twitter feed:
Hmmm… :-(
Cheers,
Scott.
hellslittlestangel
For anyone who hasn’t noticed, the news media have caught up with everyone else and is sick and tired of Little Gloves’ repetitive bullshit. Clinton is going to do much better in the debate scoring than you think.
geg6
@? Martin:
Bourdain is madly in love with Vietnam and has been for years. He’s at his most lyrical whenever he films in or writes about Vietnam. He’ll move there when he retires, for sure. It was a beautiful episode and a mash note to the country tonight.
geg6
@Adam L Silverman:
Heh. Obama was his cool self. Bunh cha and beer. Yum.
Omnes Omnibus
@geg6: Ever see him on France?
geg6
@Omnes Omnibus:
Yes. It’s nothing compared to his absolute adoration of Vietnam. I’ve seen every episode of all his series. He’s my secret boyfriend.
Mnemosyne
@Omnes Omnibus:
“Hi, I’m Rocco di Spirito and welcome to my new restaurant, Rats a’ Poppin!”
Omnes Omnibus
@geg6: I see it the other way. His heaven would be Paris with great pho. I would not argue with him. Paris has great pho.
Major Major Major Major
@Omnes Omnibus: I have heard from no small number of people that the best pho is in San Jose.
Aleta
First, I feel sick about everything.
Second, Trump pulled off his G. Flo. attack–why, there it is in the NYT! I hope it dies away, but I’m sure it will seem like forever during the ‘exciting’ lead-up period tomorrow. Cause it’s ‘news’ now. Then after the debate we’ll have to ponder as a nation how much it might have damaged her. (“How Much Do Voters Blame Hillary for Being Scorned?” etc.)
Third, do I really want to handle watching a smug older guy with no conscience bully a woman who can’t look weak but mustn’t be
ugly-strong, needs to show skill but not show off, better not say anything wrong but will never do everything right.
It’s frightening me really. I’m probably overreacting to the media. They’ll stay on their own trip but I don’t have to join them. I guess the main thing is not to watch it alone.
Omnes Omnibus
@Major Major Major Major: Okay. I did not mention the word best.
Susan K of the Tech Support
Prediction: There’s going to be a massive spike in people signing up to volunteer to help Hillary GOTV.
(No predictions on people willing to hand over ID and sign NDAs to volunteer for little hanDonald.)
shortribs
I hope that’s one of the things Hillary points out early on. A President requires a depth of knowledge and ability to focus on the topic at hand. Trump has neither of those qualities.
Related: A Silicon Valley titan is putting money behind an unofficial Donald Trump group dedicated to “shitposting” and circulating internet memes maligning Hillary Clinton. Palmer Luckey founded Oculus, probably the biggest VR tech company out there (and somewhat recently bought by Facebook).
schrodinger's cat
What is monging? shouldn’t it be rumor mongering, instead.
Fair Economist
As usual, Silver has the trends right but is underconfident of the result. It’s virtually certain Clinton will win the polls, because she’ll sound like she knows what she’s doing and has good plans for the country. It’s also virtually certainly Trump will win the pundits, because he won’t take a poop onstage and the media will be amazed he has that much self-control.
Omnes Omnibus
@Aleta: So you have a ledge? Step off it. HRC has never been behind.
piratedan
suspect that there’s a fair amount of narrative pre-baked into the stories. The question is going to be for those folks just now tuning into the election, how bad will their cognitive dissonance be and will they believe what the pundits spin as to what is being said.
Let face it, DT could take a poop on stage and the Faux news folks will talk about it being a bold statement on the nature of politics…
CNN will ponder whether or not HRC is hiding something by not also taking a dump on stage
CBS, NBC and ABC will censor the plop but not the steaming pile itself, because of reasons
Breitbart and Drudge will applaud Trumps bravery for “telling it like it is” and indicate that this is essentially Trump, see no racism here.
MSNBC will lament about HRC not having a valid response to the act itself and say that she needed to dress better
Hillary will spend roughly 20 minutes discussing policy that is concerned with Jobs, kids, women and economics
The NYT will discuss the lack of a coherent policy that were tied to e-mails sent to her from her Foundation
The WaPo will mention Hilary’s policy proposals on page 13 but will lead on the opinions about Trump’s performance
That’s what I expect on Tuesday….
Helen
@geg6: Watching the re- run on the East coast now. Had a friend who went to Vietnam a few yrs ago. Her biggest takeaway was how friendly the Vietnamese were to Americans.
Another Scott
@Aleta: Hillary’s dealt with Trump’s kind for decades. And don’t forget visited 112 countries as SoS. She’s dealt with people who represent countries that view women as only being good enough to lock up at home unless some male family member escorts them around, etc., etc. Read her recollection of taking the law school entrance exam.
She was at (one of) his weddings. She knows how to deal with Donnie.
Don’t worry. :-)
Cheers,
Scott.
Major Major Major Major
@Omnes Omnibus: I shall never share unasked again!
Aleta
@Aleta: I guess the main thing is not to watch it alone.
Oh yeah, and to not get slightly suicidal.
Steeplejack (tablet)
@Aleta:
“G. Flo.”?! Please don’t try to make that a thing. She’s not going to be around that long.
Aleta
@Omnes Omnibus: I appreciate that. But this stuff cuts deep. Sometimes it takes energy to keep it in its place.
Aleta
@Another Scott:
Thank you !
JGabriel
NYT on Debate Prep:
Question: What the hell kind of world is Trump living in where Bedminster, NJ has more distractions than Manhattan? Is there some sort of strip club in Bedminster that Trump just can’t stop going to?
Aleta
@Steeplejack (tablet): I’m surprised it’s not already a thing.
Aleta
@JGabriel:
His son wanted to say hello? His wife has legs and it’s her fault?
Mnemosyne
@Aleta:
It’s going to be all about turnout. If you volunteer whatever time and/or money you can spare towards getting voters to show up, you may feel less helpless. I’m going to Las Vegas next weekend (from Los Angeles) to help there since California is going to go for Hillary by a large margin.
Betty Cracker
The G. Flowers thing just makes Trump seem like a crass, crude dick to the very voters he needs attract if he wants to win.
Mnemosyne
I hope I survive the debate party I’m going to tomorrow night — it’s going to be dry since the two hosts are recovering alcoholics (they each have their 10-year chip, so I ain’t doing anything to get them off their groove). Hopefully the group jeering and mocking of The Donald will make up for the lack of alcohol.
JGabriel
Because that’s what women like to hear from a Presidential candidate: that he’s going to “punch” the first female Presidential nominee.
Fanatastic word-choice there, Kellyanne. No, truly: Kudos.
Helen
I bought a whole buncha Skinny Pop popcorn for tomorrow. Not for the Ha Ha Popcorn thing but because I’m thinking it’s gonna soak up the alcohol.
A HUGE part of me doesn’t want to watch. I certainly don’t watch Trump anymore. I can’t stomach him. I just want Nov 8th to get here and be over.
I’ll most likely watch here and monitor Wonkette. They got me through the 2014 midterms without killing myself.
Omnes Omnibus
@Aleta: Use the energy you need. Rest in late November. Until then, let’s fight.
Kay
If anyone needs any motivation to vote for Hillary Clinton, this will do it. It’s an in-depth look at what the Trumpkins are planning:
Newt Gingrich seems to be in charge they’re planning a massive purge of lower level federal employees and also basically repealing Obama’s presidency.
Oh, and they’re bringing back the UnAmerican activities Congressional witch hunt- Muslims will be interrogated to see if they’re patriotic enough. Gingrich has big plans.
Ivanka gets a no-show Cabinet position- we know that. I wonder what they’ll do with Eric? He strikes me as a real Right winger. He can administer the patriotism tests.
JGabriel
Betty Cracker:
And like the crass, crude dick his self-aggrandizing supporters want in the Presidential office to reflect their Dunning-Kruger delusions of competence and dominance.
Peter H Desmond
@Aleta: always remember to breathe.
JGabriel
@Aleta:
Heh, LOL’d.
Upon further investigation, it turns out to be even worse. Bedminster, NJ is the home of the … wait for it … Trump National Golf Course.
The inflamed orange asshole can’t take a Presidential debate seriously enough to not be distracted by a fucking golf course.
BR
Important reminder: if you have a twitter account, be active on twitter tomorrow during and after the debate. The press lives on twitter, and my understanding is that the narratives that dominated on twitter in 2012 influenced the coverage substantially.
Major Major Major Major
@JGabriel: Wow, that link makes his campaign sound like a disaster.
hellslittlestangel
Mirrors, portraits of Trump, things with Trump’s monogram on them …
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: When did we open an embassy in Mississippi?
Emerald
@Helen: I’m not watching. I can’t stand it. I’m going to see “Sully” and come home and read the BJ live blog about it. Then I can watch a re-run if it turns out to be not horrendously horrible.
But I would have to mute every syllable Trump spoke, so nope.
Aleta
@Peter H Desmond:
I’m writing this down.
And I’ll get on it right away : ) Thanks.
JGabriel
@Mai.naem.mobile:
Nope. Though there is the possibility, if Trump is bad enough or looks weak, that he could lose votes from it.
Steeplejack (tablet)
Watching the rerun of Bourdain with Obama. The Vietnamese diners in the background are doing a great job of pretending to ignore that POTUS is in the house. Hilarious!
I remember the news coverage when this was shot. There was practically Beatles-level rioting in the neighborhood.
Adam L Silverman
@Aleta: No, he decided to go hang out at the Hooters at the Trump resort and golf course there. Someone was tweeting pics of it earlier.
https://twitter.com/stuartpstevens/status/780022358077603840
hovercraft
@JGabriel:
In Jersey he is at his resort, which is not as secluded as his penthouse which takes up the top 3 floors of Trump tower, where he is completely isolated and soundproofed from the sounds of NY. And as mentioned above, he probably left his wife and son back in Jersey.
Aleta
@hellslittlestangel: ha
Adam L Silverman
@JGabriel: Its not the golf course, its the Hooters at his marina:
https://twitter.com/stuartpstevens/status/780022358077603840
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: These things happen.
Aleta
@Steeplejack (tablet): Legal question: I know he can’t be Prez again, but does Prince Charles have the power to make him an honorary Beatle?
Anne Laurie
@Aleta: Do what I plan to do — keep the debate open in a muted tab, just in case, but “watch” along with the commentors here & the liveblog at the Guardian, where the reporters know a hawk from a handsaw.
Peter H Desmond
@Adam L Silverman: hilarious. i wonder who in the campaign stomped their foot and ordered him back to manhattan?
JGabriel
@Adam L Silverman:
So the Pig in a Wig’s Bedminster’s distractions are a golf course and a sort of strip club!
Dessert Wax, meet Floor Topping.
Steeplejack (tablet)
@Aleta:
I think only Brian Epstein had that power, and it died with him. Probably for the best.
jc
Clinton should say right up front: Mr. Trump, I hope you can seriously engage the issues here tonight, and keep your trademark ‘shoot-from-the-gut’ outrageous slurs to a minimum.
Trump doesn’t need to prepare for the debate because he has no intention of engaging in honest debate. It will be up to Clinton alone to shoot his BS full of holes.
Why do you keep dodging the substantive details of important issues, Mr. Trump? That wall you keep talking about is a joke. Your deportation proposals are ludicrous. Tell us something that doesn’t sound like policy crafted by a 12 year old.
Brachiator
No idea. The opinions of the base won’t change, on either side. But there are folks in the enthusiasm gap (both Trump and Clinton) and Trump hating Republicans looking for a final destination.
Hopefully, Trump has overestimated his appeal, and underestimated the degree to which his lies and embrace of right wing racism has alienated voters. And there is his sexism, which still has not hurt him with married white women as much as it should.
But he is a salesman, and he will try to sell himself hard to America as the man who doesn’t have to know policy because he knows how to pick the right people.
I think that Clinton will be able to deflect Trump’s attacks. I hope that she can deliver more responses Benghazi testimony style, shorter answers that get straight to the point.
Her biggest challenge will not be to prove that she knows a lot of shit, but that she can be an effective leader who understands the nation’s problems and can solve them.
The pundits don’t care about policy, but will whine that they didn’t get policy if the debate gets “too negative.”
Most viewers don’t care about policy. They may have key issues important to them, but they are looking to see which of these two people they will entrust with their faith, hopes, and possibly lives.
And in the end, Clinton must convince the viewers that they want to watch Trump on tv entertaining them, but that they want to put her in the White House protecting them. All of them. Including the dumbasses who have fallen for Trump’s BS.
Aleta
@Steeplejack (tablet):
In that case it should have been George Martin.
Steeplejack (tablet)
@Aleta:
Some soothing music to calm the nerves: Nite Flyte, “4 a.m.” Dangerously close to smooth jazz, but we’re not afraid to go there, are we?
Steeplejack (tablet)
@Aleta:
George Martin was an errand boy sent by grocery clerks to sweeten the mix. Which he turned out to be a genius at.
Steeplejack (tablet)
@Steeplejack (tablet):
The Rippingtons, “Hideaway.”
Aleta
@Steeplejack (tablet):Bien sûr que non!
opiejeanne
@Aleta: What really helped me stay focused was volunteering, although I wasn’t quite in need of being talked off of the ledge. I will go back to it soon. Just an hour helps the campaign and I think is pretty steadying. I put in 3 hours the first time but that was an hour too long for me so I cut it back to 2 hours.
I’ve worked for Hillary for a while, now I’m thinking about doing what Mnemosyne said she’s doing: going to another state that needs the help. Or maybe I’ll work for one of the WA down-ballot candidates that needs it; mine probably don’t, but there are pockets of red and I’d like to flip the statehouse.
Steeplejack (tablet)
@Aleta:
Freddie Hubbard, “À Bientôt.”
opiejeanne
@Mnemosyne: I wish I could join you but I don’t think I can get away yet.
Aleta
@Steeplejack (tablet): Tout à fait belle.
seaboogie
@Peter H Desmond: At this point, it would be safe to assume “All of them, Katie.”
seaboogie
@Aleta: How do you do the French accents in this space? Je pose cette question pour une amie.
Steeplejack (tablet)
@Aleta:
Miles Davis, “Générique.”
Steeplejack (tablet)
@seaboogie:
If you’re on a tablet or phone, you can press and hold a letter and a context menu will pop up with the accented possibilities. Dunno about a Mac, but on a Windows machine you have to copy and paste from another app or call up the on-screen keyboard—which I don’t remember how to do right now.
Here is a good explanation for Macs and PCs.
Aleta
@Steeplejack (tablet): funny you should say this, because I had:
Miles Davis – Flamenco Sketches
and Rosalia de souza - Bossa 31
seaboogie
@Steeplejack (tablet): Merci, Steep!
Aleta
@seaboogie: I didn’t like how it looked without one, so I just went and found one and pasted.
Aleta
@Steeplejack (tablet): god it’s amazing. Merci mon ami.
Steeplejack (tablet)
@seaboogie:
When I’m on my “real” computer I usually have Word open and do my composing there, if it’s longer than a one-liner. Lots of convenient shortcuts there for exotic characters.
Steeplejack (tablet)
@Aleta:
Nice. That Miles album is in the late-night rotation here a lot.
seaboogie
@Steeplejack (tablet): Thank you – I had not considered that at all. I’ll explore more when I’m not such a tired pup. You are so generous and helpful with your tech support et aussi avec la bonne musique – je te remercie!
sukabi
@Steeplejack (tablet): thank you, did not know that.
Steeplejack (tablet)
@seaboogie:
Writing and editing (and spell-checking) are much nicer in Word (and if FYWP eats a comment you’ve got a backup). Just copy your Word text and paste it into the Balloon Juice comment form.
rikyrah
@Kay: You are on this
Kay. I learn more about these horrid people from you everyday. Thanks
Enhanced Voting Techniques
I take they already posted or published their articles about how Trump exceed expectations in tonight’s debate?
Enhanced Voting Techniques
OMG, they are priming the press to make it a win for Trump if he just stands at the lectern the entire debate! ROFL
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Mai.naem.mobile:
Yes, Trump’s got a lot of conservative women back, if Trump comes across as bashing Hilary for being a woman, he loses them again. Also, if he looks like a sulky little boy next to Hilary, he loses voters.
JGabriel
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Fox Pundit:
MikefromArlington
Just remember Palin, the biggest know nothing of all time won according to many. I wouldn’t expect trump to do worse than her.