Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

It’s easy to sit in safety and prescribe what other people should be doing.

These are not very smart people, and things got out of hand.

In my day, never was longer.

Our messy unity will be our strength.

Giving in to doom is how we fail to fight for ourselves & one another.

Republicans got rid of McCarthy. Democrats chose not to save him.

Text STOP to opt out of updates on war plans.

The gop is a fucking disgrace.

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

No Kings: Americans standing in the way of bad history saying “Oh, Fuck No!”

The Giant Orange Man Baby is having a bad day.

If you tweet it in all caps, that makes it true!

I desperately hope that, yet again, i am wrong.

“Facilitate” is an active verb, not a weasel word.

Giving in to doom is how authoritarians win.

How any woman could possibly vote for this smug smarmy piece of misogynistic crap is beyond understanding.

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Do we throw up our hands or do we roll up our sleeves? (hint, door #2)

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

The line between political reporting and fan fiction continues to blur.

Hi god, it’s us. Thanks a heap, you’re having a great week and it’s only Thursday!

The cruelty is the point; the law be damned.

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Monday Morning Open Thread

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According to ever-uplifting commentor MomSense:

Korra is practicing her debate watching faces.

He said what??? Please make him stop.

Distinguished commentor Omnes Omnibus linked to the following clip, and Adam was sad that he’d been “beaten to the punch”. But not everybody here reads the comments, especially on weekends, so I gave Adam 36 whole hours to front-page it… sorry, Adam, we need the eggs laughs:

“I will spoil every episode of Game of Thrones!”

Apart from stockpiling supplies for this evening, what’s on the agenda as we start another week?

Reader Interactions

230Comments

  2. 2.

    Tokyokie

    I don’t plan to watch any of the debate tonight because I know it could prove terminal for my blood pressure or my flat-screen.

  5. 5.

    bemused

    I watched very little news yesterday but was soon sick of msm panels, all of them Katie, advising Hillary in great detail how to debate Trump. Sounds like media is still at it this morning and no doubt will be at it all day. I will watch the debate but only on C-span, msm is intolerable.

  7. 7.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    I’ll skip Morning Hoe today, I’m on my 3rd reinstall of Linux Mint on my triple boot machine(Win10, MacOS Sierra, and Linux Mint 18 KDE). I had it installed just fine, and made the mistake of doing an update.

  8. 8.

    eclare

    Supposedly summer has finally ended in Memphis. Yesterday’s high was 94, today’s prediction is 76. Here’s hoping.

  10. 10.

    Mustang Bobby

    @?BillinGlendaleCA: My home laptop, set up as a PC, took over an hour to install the Win 10 update last week. It brought back Cortuna or whatever-its-name-is and dumped my Nikon Coolpix downloading software. Now and then it freezes, and when I hit CTRL+ALT+Delete to go to Task Manager, it basically says, “Oops, we goofed. Sorry about that; we’re re starting (tee-hee).” What a bite in the crank.

  13. 13.

    Michael Bersin

    Representative Emanuel Cleaver (D) yesterday afternoon at the opening of the Hillary Clinton campaign HQ in Kansas City:

    “….Look, Donald Trump….this is personal, this is personal. Let me say this so I can get it, get through with it and have a nice evening [laughter]. When I hear Donald Trump say that African Americans are worse off than they have ever been in the history of this country, uh, I am just angered, uh, to the bone. Uh, because Frank Harrison Cleaver, uh, my great great grandfather who died when I was four, who had been in slavery, uh, would, would be insulted, uh, that, that, you know, that somebody could be so ignorant, uh, in twenty sixteen….”

  17. 17.

    Baud

    Some observations from my recent overseas fact finding mission:

    * Dogs are awesome everywhere.

    * Europeans don’t seem to realize that they are not free. Or they are good at hiding it. Sad!

    * I wonder why scooters aren’t more popular with the urban crowd in the States.

    * Google photo translate is amazing.

    * I’m both saddened and relieved about how the world carries on in my absence.

    * Why can’t we have nice things?

    * I’m thinking of getting gargoyle downspouts for my house.

    * Walkable cities rule.

    * Whatever else is messed up about America, we have comparatively great nonsmoking policies. USA! USA!

  18. 18.

    MomSense

    @Baud:

    We’ve missed you. Hope you had a fun trip and feel good because we are going to need you to get through the rest of this election.

  19. 19.

    qwerty42

    @?BillinGlendaleCA: … and made the mistake of doing an update.
    What is your boot manager? The Linux one (which I assume is no longer Lilo, though have not had a Linux box in many years)?

  20. 20.

    Immanentize

    Hello, All. The season is turning — 45 degrees here north of Boston. My in-laws are visiting from Texas starting Wednessay — they may need heat if it stays like this.

    Sounds like you had a great trip, Baud!

  24. 24.

    Schlemazel

    @Baud:
    Check out any university campus, scooters are a very big thing*

    “Admittedly a small sample on my part of a half dozen large universities but assume it is not just a midwest thing.

    BTW – welcome back & please note we kept your campaign alive during your absence

  26. 26.

    PsiFighter37

    Hoping that Hillary devastates Trump tonight, or, more likely, that Trump shoots himself in the dick repeatedly.

  27. 27.

    Baud

    @MomSense: I missed you guys too. Now I’m wondering whether it’s emotionally healthy to feel that way about a collection of text-based lifeforms.

  35. 35.

    James E Powell

    @Tokyokie:

    I don’t plan to watch any of the debate tonight because I know it could prove terminal for my blood pressure or my flat-screen.

    I, too, am going to find something else to do, then go online, probably here, to read the reactions. No doubt videos of any “there you go again” or similar Big Moments will be readily available.

  45. 45.

    germy

    Jury selection has begun for the Charleston church shooter.

    Roof’s attorneys have said repeatedly their client is willing to plead guilty if the death penalty is taken off the table. But U.S. Attorney General Loretta Lynch has said the government is seeking death because of “the nature of the alleged crime and the resulting harm.”

    Miller Shealy, an attorney who teaches criminal law at Charleston School of Law, said the challenge for the defense is finding a jury that will keep Roof out of the death chamber.

    “You’re trying to apply a little common sense and the best social science and psychology you can get to determine how you can pick a jury that is as non-lethal as possible,” he said. “The government is trying to pick a jury that actually will give the death penalty based on the facts and the circumstances.”

  47. 47.

    JMG

    Nate Silver, who has been very defensive about his models lately (don’t know why, he shows a close race with a high degree of uncertainty, which not many dispute) made a good point yesterday. The election is still a long way off, The conventions being in July skewed the campaign clock. Also Nov. 8 is the latest Election Day possible.

  48. 48.

    satby

    @germy: I don’t support the death penalty, even for truly heinous crimes like this one. Without insisting on the death penalty he would have already been sentenced since he’s ready to plead guilty. He did it, he admits it; no sense dragging it out.

  49. 49.

    germy

    My local newscaster just said there will be “a record number of people watching tonight’s debate” which is a good thing, right? Would it be depressing if most citizens didn’t care enough to tune in? I’ve also read that a record number of people are registering and seeking absentee ballots.

  54. 54.

    NorthLeft12

    Just finished reading the NYT editorial that endorses Sec. Clinton for President. Then I read the comments. While the great majority of comments affirm their support of Hillary, the naysayers still stubbornly hold to their beliefs about her.
    I am no expert about these things, but in my limited contact through the internet and discussions with other Canadians living in the states, I just don’t see people who support Deadbeat Donald suddenly reversing course. They have already been through hell defending and promoting this miserable excuse for a human being. They have absorbed his ignorance, bigotry, and hate eagerly, and laughed off his lies and missteps.
    I think the best outcome is that these people become discouraged enough by his weak and embarrassing debate performance that they don’t show up at the polls. Convincing them to turn is just not going to happen.

    Please continue to work hard to GOTV of decent people across your country. Good luck.

  55. 55.

    Baud

    @germy:

    I’ve also read that a record number of people are registering and seeking absentee ballots.

    Odd, since the conventional wisdom is that people are tuned out since they hate both candidates.

    I just hope minorities turn out. If we have to lose, I’d rather it be because of white racism than minority apathy.

  56. 56.

    MomSense

    @germy:

    They are acting like she inserted her opinion into the debate when all she did was confirm that the President did in fact make a public statement when he said he did. It was a basic factcheck.

  59. 59.

    Kay

    @JMG:

    I wonder why they’re predicting such a white electorate. I don’t necessarily doubt it but I don’t know what it’s based on.

    I don’t know what she can do about the huge gap with white men because some of them must have been Obama voters. The percentages don’t make sense unless some portion of them voted for Obama but won’t vote for Clinton. They don’t self-identify as Democrats, either, or her percentage of Democrats would be lower. So they’re white male older “Independents” who went from Obama in ’12 to Donald Trump? WTF?

  60. 60.

    Matt McIrvin

    @NorthLeft12: A majority of the potential US electorate is not going to vote for Trump, and the people who will are never changing their minds. This is going to come down to whether or not enough people who are opposed to Trump vote for Hillary Clinton, or vote third-party or stay home.

  61. 61.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @germy: I have never watched a political debate in my life. Not because I don’t care but because they are absolutely superfluous. They are nothing more than a contest over who has the best one liners**, and besides, I have better things to get my blood pressure up over.

    ps: now that I’m home, these drugs they got me on are even worse

  64. 64.

    bystander

    @Baud:

    about America, we have comparatively great nonsmoking policies. USA! USA!

    Job-killing regulations, you mean. Why do libbies always hate farmers?

  66. 66.

    NorthLeft12

    @germy: She retired, and frankly I doubt she would ever wish to perform that job again.

    I’ll say this again; my prediction for tonight is that Deadbeat Donald pulls a full Palin and completely ignores whatever questions are asked to just free flow his ignorance, lies, and bigotry. Most of it aimed at Sec Clinton.
    Last thought; I think Hillary has a fine line to walk here. I hate saying this but unfortunately I think it is true, if she completely humiliates and exposes Trump for the fool he is, it will be held against her. She will be portrayed by the RW media as the mean smart girl. While somehow, Trump adopts the role of the well meaning doofus who is hopelessly outmatched.
    Best outcome is if Trump exposes himself as a whiny, privileged, stupid bully with a small assist from Hillary.

  67. 67.

    germy

    @MomSense:

    They are acting like she inserted her opinion into the debate when all she did was confirm that the President did in fact make a public statement when he said he did. It was a basic factcheck.

    And from what I understand, Obama had used that word during an earlier interview with… Candy Crowley. So I think she really couldn’t let Mitt put that lie out there unchallenged.

  68. 68.

    Taylor

    Adam Nagourney got mentioned (and dissed) in a tweet in the earlier post.

    Isn’t he the guy that Cheney said in 2000 (“accidentally” into a live mic), “That guy’s a real asshole” and Bush responded, “Major league.” This after a negative story about Bush’s Texas in the NYT.

    A warning to the press, and one that took.

  71. 71.

    debbie

    Anyone else listening to NPR? There was an interview with a Trump supporter who was weighing whether to join a group of patriots planning to overthrow the government if Clinton’ elected. Hope there’s planning to deal with an event like this.

  73. 73.

    Kay

    @?BillinGlendaleCA:

    I’m not sure I believe that. I know they’re saying they’re voting against Clinton and not for Trump but if that’s true why are the models so white? if they were genuinely voting “against” and it’s Independents then they shouldn’t be “likely voters”. They should be more likely to stay home.

    I felt like the lower Great lakes states were weak for Democrats since ’12 and I’m afraid it’s true. I hope it isn’t a shift because they have to replace those states w/something reliable if it is. The replacements are CO and VA.

  74. 74.

    germy

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    ps: now that I’m home, these drugs they got me on are even worse

    I hope you’re doing better and you’re satisfied with the care you’re receiving.

    Every time I deal with a physician, I half-suspect they’re incompetent. My latest experience combines a doctor who contradicts himself with every visit, and a completely disorganized (and sarcastic) front desk staff.

  75. 75.

    JMG

    @Kay: I first noted the extreme hostility of some white men of my acquaintance to H. Clinton in 2007, long before emails. It has to be a real resentment of the growing power of women in society. After all, it is very easy (sadly) for a white male in our country to never have anything but cursory social contact with minorities. Harder to do that with women.
    PS: Was in your state this weekend for a wedding. Boardman, a suburb of Youngstown. Saw one Clinton sign, one Trump sign. That was it. No Trump voters in family I met, but tended to discuss him as some outside force, like bad weather, to the extent he was mentioned at all (not hardly).

  76. 76.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    @Kay:

    why are the models so white?

    I think the assumption they’re working from is that Sec. Clinton will not be able to bring out the non-white vote like Obama did. I’m not sure I agree there will be that much of a drop off.

  77. 77.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @NorthLeft12:

    While somehow, Trump adopts the role of the well meaning doofus who is hopelessly outmatched.

    Somehow or other I just don’t see that role working for Trump. Not the greatest business man ever, who is the greatest at everything and is so smart about military matters he will just fire all the generals and…..

    THAT would be a pivot to end all pivots.

  78. 78.

    NorthLeft12

    @germy:

    But U.S. Attorney General Loretta Lynch has said the government is seeking death because of “the nature of the alleged crime and the resulting harm.

    Personally, I think the most powerful statement that could be made here is to forgo the death penalty and ensure that Roof is incarcerated for a minimum of fifty years before any kind of parole is considered. And I am not saying that in the hope that his fellow inmates or guards make his life a living hell. The death penalty is wrong, always will be IMO, and using it to avenge the loss of life he inflicted on those people and the harm he did to their families and community and the nation, is just not right.

  79. 79.

    Kay

    @debbie:

    I don’t know why they’re letting the “pulling out of Ohio” thing take hold. Even if they are pulling back in Ohio they shouldn’t allow the story to spread because it affects peoples’ perceptions in PA and MI.

    Just do an event in OH. Trump will seize on this as proof he can take PA.

  80. 80.

    Hal

    Meh. I think Trump is going to bomb and drop out of anymore debates. The press will play the game a few more days and wait for public opinion to shift in Hillary Clinton’s favor and then the media will start doing its job.

  81. 81.

    JMG

    I question whether the debates will have that much impact. First, they don’t usually move that many votes. Second, opinions of Trump and Clinton are so set in stone, almost all viewers will see what they expect to see.

  83. 83.

    BR

    @Kay:

    If you imagine that some fraction of them who voted for Obama in ’08 went to Romney in ’12, the same demographic group might again be shifting away, with the next batch who voted for Obama in ’12 going to Trump in ’16. It is frightening to see the degree of racial and gender polarization in the polls.

    I had a strange line I thought Clinton could use in the debate (she wouldn’t but I thought it’d be interesting): “Trump has tried to make my candidacy as a woman an issue. Let’s take that off the table. So imagine for a moment, while you evaluate our views, that both Donald and I are women — and look at our values and our plans for the country and make your decision based on that.” Trump and his supporters would blow a gasket imaging that, and he might make a sexist comment to top it off.

  84. 84.

    opiejeanne

    @?BillinGlendaleCA: You don’t always label your photos, and you don’t seem to notice you have comments (from me) under a few of them.
    Is there a series at the Huntington Library? Is that where the large pond is?

    Edited to add, you do notice but you don’t answer.

  85. 85.

    NorthLeft12

    @OzarkHillbilly: I do not mean that Deadbeat Donald would willingly take that role [he is completely oblivious and will claim he did great no matter what] but that the media will cast him that way.
    They are laying the ground work now; not preparing[supposedly], “wing it”, rely on Trump’s counter punching, etc. to ensure that the curve is adequately bent for hm.

  86. 86.

    Kay

    @?BillinGlendaleCA:

    This is just my theory- it’s based on nothing “empirical” – but I feel like it’s important to Democrats to believe they are winning. More important than it is to Republicans. It just seems like if they start to feel like they’ll lose it builds. That’s why I never believed in “complacency” as a threat with Democratic voters. They’re skittish as hell. They don’t ever need to be told they’re losing.

    if they start to think they’re losing it discourages them and it builds. I’ve never seen this fail.

  87. 87.

    bemused

    Jonathan Chait said media has played a big role in not only the normalization of Trump but the abnormalization of Clinton. Yes!

    Krugman says if media reports on the debates as they did in 2000, how Hillary comes across, her facial expressions while minimizing Trump lies, and we get a Trump WH, history will not forgive these people. I rather doubt msm will pay a price for grading Trump on a very low curve and hounding Hillary. They don’t seem to have suffered much scorn for being all in for invading Iraq and the aftermath nor learned anything either.

  89. 89.

    BR

    @Kay:

    I hope you’re telling your local Ohio organizers this. Especially coming from someone like you with years of local organizing experience, it matters.

  91. 91.

    Kay

    @BR:

    I don’t think she can do anything about bias based on sex. It’s irrational. Rational appeals don’t touch irrational beliefs. It’s what she is. There’s no getting around some knee-jerk objection to what she is.

  92. 92.

    Betty Cracker

    @satby: I agree. Just lock the bastard up and throw away the key. Meanwhile, I hope there has been a thorough investigation to find out if anyone encouraged that wormy little kook to murder people. The U.S. government droned that al Awlaki shithead for inciting others to violence. It should also prosecute any racist hate groups here who inspired the moron in Charleston.

  94. 94.

    Central Planning

    Since it’s an open thread: any chance there will be a BJ live stream of the debate tonight? That was fun at the last election when we could all chat live.

  95. 95.

    bystander

    @rikyrah: Bright Side Dept.: That atrocious Xarelto commercial with has been/never was Kevin Nealon will have to be taken out of rotation.

  96. 96.

    rikyrah

    @Kay:
    Remember, Willard won Sixty percent of the White vote in 2012. I hope that Hillary does better, but, even if she doesn’t, if we turn out, she wins

  97. 97.

    Baud

    @bemused: Kos has a theory that progressives were now strong enough to take on the national media. Even if we win, that’s clearly untrue.

  98. 98.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @germy: I long ago realized that one has to constantly remind doctors of allergies and pre-existing conditions. Just figured they had their minds on so may different patients with so many different problems it is hard to keep ’em all straight.

    As to this situation, I have long been leery of general anesthesia but more because I hate how I feel coming out of it than the dangers of it. I had wanted to talk to the doc about doing it local only but never got the chance and did not feel like the day of the surgery was the best time to do so. Safe to say, I won’t make that mistake again.

    The anesthetist fucked up. The post op fucked up. It damned near killed me.** I’m not gonna sue anyone but my insurance company might object to paying for other people’s screw ups.

    **possibly hyperbole, but I honestly feel that if I lived just 10 miles further away from the hospital, I wouldn’t have made it.

  99. 99.

    opiejeanne

    @bystander: I wish someone would yank the smarmy-voiced car commercials being run for Mazda. I think that’s the right company. I don’t know who the narrator is but I want to smack him every time I hear his smug, sing-song ads.

  100. 100.

    Betty Cracker

    @Kay: I don’t like to cite sexism unless there’s no other plausible explanation, but I think it’s safe to assume older white male independents who voted for Obama in 2012 and are now voting for Trump are motivated by sexism.

  102. 102.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    @opiejeanne: The large pond with the Asian buildings is the Chinese Garden at the Huntington. I’ve tried to start labeling my pics a bit more often. To answer your question, the pyramid tomb is at Rosedale Cemetary just south of Koreatown(Pico and Normandie). I think that tomb dates from mid 20th century, though there are graves from the Victorian period.

    ETA: I also have some pics of a sightly larger pond with trees surrounding it(no Chinese buildings), that’s Upper Franklin Reservoir(the Andy Griffith opening was filmed there).

  105. 105.

    JAFD

    On WQXR’s news this morn…
    “Meanwhile, the big story in New York is two people, who do not want to be in the same space at the same time, but who are pushed together by forces they neither understand nor control…

    No, not the presidential debate. The Metropolitan Opera begins its season tonight with Wagner’s Tristan und Isolde”

    And happy George Gershwin’s birthday, everyone!

  108. 108.

    JMG

    I have no idea what Clinton will do tonight, but I think speaking past her opponent directly to the voters is her best tack. She has policies, she has a record to point to with pride, she has, you know, facts. She has the same opportunity to show that her negative image is a distortion that Trump supposedly has.

  109. 109.

    bemused

    @Baud:

    What does he mean by progressives “taking on” the national media? I don’t see any indication that msm will or would be different than they have been for years.

  110. 110.

    Baud

    @Betty Cracker: I’m now a race-firster in my political thinking. I note that the polls started to tighten after Clinton’s race speech in August.

    White male Obama voters started moving away in 2012. This is just part of the process. Some people only vote Dem when the GOP puts their 401k at risk. See 1992 and 2008. Obama’s economic success gives them the freedom to focus on other issues.

  113. 113.

    Kay

    @rikyrah:

    Letting “pulling out of Ohio” spread is the first time I’ve doubted the campaign. They have thousands of volunteers in Ohio and NW Ohio isn’t just “Ohio”- it’s eastern Michigan. Something like 30% of the Toledo Blade readers are in Michigan. they’re see that and think MI is in play.

    It’s bad. It feels deliberately spread, too. Planted.

  114. 114.

    Emma

    @efgoldman: Thank you. Democrats bitch about the Clinton’s “triangulation” but keep trying to triangulate the vote. It is what it is. The misogynists and racists are not going to change their minds. Democrats have to stand for what they stand. If we get “disheartened” or “depressed” and don’t vote we deserve what we get.

  118. 118.

    Matt McIrvin

    @?BillinGlendaleCA:

    I think the assumption they’re working from is that Sec. Clinton will not be able to bring out the non-white vote like Obama did. I’m not sure I agree there will be that much of a drop off.

    I’ve been hearing all these anecdotes about black millennials being generally unenthusiastic about Clinton and even being Jill Stein-curious. It’s entirely possible that the numbers will drop just from low youth turnout–old people are whiter.

    Also, I strongly suspect that more people will be afraid to vote than in the last couple of cycles. I expect a lot of armed white supremacist activity around polling places.

  120. 120.

    bemused

    @JMG:

    I agree with Hillary talking directly to voters and that could trigger a Trump tantrum. We know Trump can’t tolerate anyone talking past him or taking full attention away from him.

  121. 121.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Emma: I’ve noticed that the people most upset about Clinton’s triangulation on trade and foreign policy are often the people most likely to want her to triangulate on race.

  124. 124.

    satby

    Facebook can be a cesspool, but I take a lot of heart from the older white union guys I know on it, who the pollsters probably assume are Drumpf supporters but are in fact avidly supporting Clinton. Anecdata sure, but it’s good to see them commenting and sharing anti-Drumpf memes.

  127. 127.

    Eric S.

    @Baud: welcome back. I had similar observations on my trips to Germany and Spain. Hankering to get back next year.

    One other thing we do better, hearty breakfasts. If you are in to that kind of thing which I am about one or twice a week.

  128. 128.

    satby

    @BR: Unions do a lot of canvassing and my friend is a rep, so he’s hitting it hard. Never misses a vote either. I’m early voting next week!

  130. 130.

    Schlemazel

    @Schlemazel:
    Ozark. Sorry for abriviated reply. I am at dr office about my fun stuff and he walked in just as I was typing.

    My experience with doctors is that you have to let them know when stuff is not working the way you want it to. They may not be able to fix it but if you don’t let them know they for sure won’t.

    Hope it gets better soon

  132. 132.

    FlipYrWhig

    @Kay:

    I feel like it’s important to Democrats to believe they are winning. More important than it is to Republicans. It just seems like if they start to feel like they’ll lose it builds.

    I feel like it’s important to Democrats to believe they are losing, because then they can wallow in it. Democrats never, ever think they’re winning. They always think all bad news is disastrous and every ambiguous event is the beginning of the end. They have no confidence and get masochistic pleasure from woe and anxiety. It’s beyond irritating, and it happens every. fucking. election.

  133. 133.

    opiejeanne

    @?BillinGlendaleCA: Aha! It’s been many years since I visited the Huntington Library, probably the early 70s was the last time, back when they had a beautiful Japanese garden. The Chinese garden may have replaced it, which is a pity because it was one of the nicest Japanese gardens I’ve ever seen.
    When I was a teenager I used to try to spot the Romneys in a room, which wasn’t too hard because they all had the same face as well as a faint five-o’clock shadow, men and women.

  134. 134.

    Botsplainer

    Prediction:

    1. Trump will rant and prevaricate for 90 minutes. He has no problem with with bragging at himself or ranting at a woman.

    2. He’ll talk over her repeatedly. May even say “shut up”.

    3. She’ll sigh, and in the collective wisdom of the Village, the consensus will be that she lost.

  137. 137.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @Botsplainer: She needs to use that infamous deep Hillary belly laugh, you know, the one that says “This is too ridiculous for words”. I love that laugh.

  138. 138.

    Elizabelle

    @Baud: Welcome back! You turn out to be a calming presence on this blog, believe it or not.

    Glad you got some away from cray cray therapy. AND you are back with us to liveblog the debate tonight, if you’re not too jetlagged.

  140. 140.

    JPL

    Tonight Trump will appear to be drugged and give nonsensical answers to policy questions. He’ll be declared the winner.
    Hillary will embarrass him though, and overnight he’ll start tweeting out insults. Unless they lock him up in a padded room tomorrow, he’ll go off script all day.

  142. 142.

    Elizabelle

    @NorthLeft12: I would not give Dylann Roof the death penalty. (1) He’s very young. (2) better to show some mercy and give him a long, long sentence. Perhaps with the possibility of parole once he’s on the other side of middle age.

    I didn’t like the death penalty for younger Tsarnaev either. I hope we do away with the federal death penalty before his number comes up.

    ETA: I would think Tsarnaev has a Supreme Court appeal issue — the “death” empanelled jury. If you need to screen jurors for only those willing to impose the death penalty, that is not a jury of peers. Further, the greater community was not down with the death penalty.

    Don’t think Scott Petersen should be on natural death row in California either. That’s death penalty via Nancy Grace.

    Californians: what do you think will happen with the death penalty ballot issue?

  147. 147.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @JPL: As a going away present at 2 am the vein I had my IV in collapsed while I was getting my last dose of IV antibiotics. The pain finally woke me up enough to become aware of my predicament at 2:30 when I noticed my hand was a balloon. I really felt sorry for the nurse, cause I’d been stuck so many times and the few veins left just weren’t cooperating. The situation just kept going down hill from there. My hand is still bloated.

  149. 149.

    Bruce K

    I’m seeing Nate Silver in my Twitter feed and it’s getting me more scared by the minute. I’ve already sent off my absentee ballot, but I’m seven time zones east of Washington, so there’s not a lot I can do to volunteer.

    We’ve already seen how much damage a bad president can do in four years, and W is a wonderful administrator when compared to Trump.

    I don’t know whether to be glad that I’m going to miss tonight’s debate. I’m terrified of what the headlines are going to say tomorrow morning.

  151. 151.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @FlipYrWhig: last week I linked to a screen shot of Romney leading in swing states in Oct, 2012– Betty front-paged and called me “valued”! But I still don’t get a fancy color background for my comments. I remember in September ’08, Rachel Maddow was predicting a McCain win. I myself am a congenital pessimist and will probably panic at some point.

  152. 152.

    Redshift

    @Baud:

    I thought Clinton was in Ohio just the other day. I was away, so maybe I’m wrong on timing.

    No, you’re right, there were events with the cast of The West Wing in Ohio this weekend:

    ‘West Wing’ cast hits real campaign trail for Clinton

    The actors will discuss why they are supporting Clinton and urge Ohioans to register to vote. Cleveland, Toledo, Sandusky, Dayton and Columbus are among the cities to be visited by the former fictional White House staffers.

  153. 153.

    Elizabelle

    @Eric S.:

    One other thing we do better, hearty breakfasts.

    Truly. I was starving in Barcelona for the first week until acclimated. Bread and coffee do not cut it. US prisoners get more than that.

    Then I realized that it’s probably because Barcelonans’ stomachs are still busy digesting octopus, in its many forms. It was hard to see so much octopus at dinner. (Fried calamari would be one thing. But no.)

    #Squid lives matter!

  154. 154.

    JMG

    @Bruce K: As of now, the race is effectively tied. As of now. Maybe Trump will continue his slow gains at Clinton’s expense. Maybe. But remind yourself — we don’t know anything yet.

  156. 156.

    Joel

    @JMG: He’s defensive because people are starting to move towards simpler/more transparent models (e.g. Sam Wang) and the NYT has found a capable replacement in Nate Cohn.

  158. 158.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: The O-Bros of the Keepin’ 1600 podcast like to remind people that McCain and Romney were favored to win FL in ’08 and ’12, so much so in ’12 that they stopped polling a couple weeks before the election. Nevada is said to be notoriously difficult to poll accurately.

    Quinnipiac, unless they’ve changed their model, uses numbers that reflect the off-year elections. And I think that’s what all the polls say when you un-skew them. If turn-out looks like 10 or 14, Trump stands a good chance, if it looks like ’08 or ’12, Clinton is a strong favorite.

  160. 160.

    Schlemazel

    @OzarkHillbilly:
    YIKES!!

    Never had that but I did have an iv come out after surgery one time. It was my painkiller and the nurse refused to believe something was wrong. Big fun. But yours sounds much scarier

  162. 162.

    Tazj

    I don’t know about anyone else but I needed to see this.

    Greg Sargent@ThePlumLineGS-8m
    Obama campaign guru @davidplouffe: Don’t fret about polls. Clinton is winning & can finish the job tonight

  165. 165.

    Redshift

    I encourage everyone to vote in any online polls we can find of who “won” the debate. I firmly believe that the organized effort to stuff the ballot box on such polls in 2004 helped stop it from being like campaign 2000 where W was declared the winner of he managed not to drool on himself.

    You and I know such polls are completely unscientific, but many in the press are very stupid about such things, and will try to seem wise by making sure their analysis matches “public opinion.” I also agree with the earlier comment about Twitter, which may be more effective for that purpose than online polls now.

  166. 166.

    JMG

    @Tazj: No offense, but what the hell else would Plouffe say? Not too many fight managers say their tiger is in real trouble days before the fight.

  167. 167.

    Schlemazel

    I got great news at the doctors this AM. No surgery and he thinks it might be possible to treat me in a way that I wouldn’t have to catheterize any more.

    In the grand scheme of a shitty 2016 it is not much but it is the best news I’ve gotten in 7 years.

  168. 168.

    Matt McIrvin

    @FlipYrWhig: Can you blame them? Democrats have not had a really big, crushing win in a national election since 1964. The closest was probably the 2006 midterm, which was a reaction to the worst Presidency of the modern era. Our victories are always hard-fought and fundamentally close in the popular vote.

    In that period the Republicans have had, by my count, at least six massive, opposition-destroying landslides in which they just rolled over the whole country, if you count midterms. Granted, the presidential ones were all earlier in that period, and the midterms were later. You could make a case for eight, if you include the post-9/11 midterm of 2002 and the power consolidation of 2014.

    But any Democrat who is over 40 vividly remembers what the Reagan era was like, and any who is over 30 remembers the post-9/11 period. That’s something that permanently affects a person’s outlook on politics.

  170. 170.

    FlipYrWhig

    IMHO the simplest answer to what’s happening with polls is that every election we’re ever going to have is bound to be close enough to 50-50, just due to basal partisan polarization, and that’s hard to poll. 54-46 would be a blowout result in the real world; it’s always going to be possible for a 54-46 “true” result to be sampled such that the sample, extrapolated, looks like 50-50. And that’s what we’re seeing. I have faith. I’m constitutionally a pessimist but come ON, he’s disgusting, and it’s obvious, and on top of _that_ he’s not putting in the work, and there’s no way it’s going to turn out well for him.

  171. 171.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @Schlemazel: It’s not scary, just painful. It is not an uncommon occurrence in older people, especially after an IV has been in for a few days and had a lot pushed thru it. Veins lose their elasticity over time. It’s the first time it ever happened to me tho, hence my indifference to the increasing pain. Next time I’ll pay more attention and wake up sooner.

  172. 172.

    CarolDuhart2

    @JMG: But Plouffe isn’t managing this time around. He’s working for Uber, so he’s freer to say what he thinks about the race. Robby Mook is the manager this time around. Amazing-he’s only 35 and doing an incredible job overall.

  174. 174.

    FlipYrWhig

    @Matt McIrvin: A record of sporadic hard-fought victories could create a culture of tenacity and commitment where it’s always possible to pull it out, and next time we’ll get ’em for sure. But that’s not what happens. It’s always, _always_, WERE DOOMED AND EVERYTHING SUCKS ALACK ALAS WHATLL WE DOO. I know we like to forecast worst-case scenarios in hopes that they _don’t_ come true, but it testifies to something deep in the leftish temperament.

  176. 176.

    Brachiator

    So, now that the NYT has endorsed Hillary and published a long op-ed piece detailing why Trump should never be considered to be presidential, is it OK to subscribe to the Times again?

  180. 180.

    NorthLeft12

    @JMG:

    It has to be a real resentment of the growing power of women in society.

    This^^^!! I work in an industry and company that women are making some solid headway in moving into management positions. Some of the comments I have heard directed at them, especially in confidence are pretty nauseating. I have asked a couple of guys not to repeat that shit again. One privately, the other in front of a small group. I got the lame excuse that they were just joking in both cases.
    I have a BIL who I no longer speak to who regularly trashed his female supervisors. First I stopped asking him about work [he works in IT as a contract worker and seems to never get his contracts extended (shocking)] then just gave up completely after he turned his ire onto other women in his life, including my wife [his sister]. If he was American, he would be all in with Trump and would be smearing Hillary full time.

    Not sure how these people can be reached or rehabilitated as they have an unshakeable belief that they have been wronged. I am normally a strong believer in inclusion and forgiveness, but these guys need to demonstrate that they recognize they have a problem and want to change before I would consider spending time on them.

  181. 181.

    JPL

    @FlipYrWhig: I have faith because at some point, the public is going to wake up and say I don’t want to party like it’s the late 1800’s Trump doesn’t even believe in food safety, which I think is because his restaurants failed inspections

  183. 183.

    Tazj

    @JMG: No offense taken, I understand what you’re saying. I guess it keeps me from screaming “WTF white people( I’m white) get your shit together!”
    In all seriousness, I’m just hoping that the poll averages which have mainly been in her favor mean that she is ahead and will win.
    I will contribute to her campaign today. I’m unable to go out of town to canvass, because of my kids and I work on the weekends.

  184. 184.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @FlipYrWhig: I’m not wetting the bed yet, but it is massively depressing that so many people are willing to vote for the racist pig

    also, as long as polling is a topic, this was buzzing around twitter on Friday

    Benjy Sarlin ‏@ BenjySarlin Sep 23
    Obama lost white under-30 vote in 2012 by a 51-44 margin
    —Josh Kraushaar @ HotlineJosh
    —-Greenberg poll (D) only has Clinton up ONE pt (!) over Trump w white millennials, 33-32%. Wow.

    #not all millennials (are precious white Bernistas)

    (and I especially enjoyed it because Kraushaar is such a smarmy little prick, and I suspect a Fournier protege)

  185. 185.

    Botsplainer

    @gogol’s wife:

    Both the Greeks and the Lebs built in pews as an adoption of American culture. The Greeks went whole hog, though, and a lot of their parishes have organs, too – it’s a little odd (my own parish is Antiochian, but we really embraced pan-Orthodoxy and my parish has pretty much all ethnicities represented, even some Greeks who are at odds with their own parish – likewise, they absorbed some of ours as well).

    I do love the liturgy, even though I’m no longer a believer. Very peaceful.

  187. 187.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: buzzing around twitter on Friday

    also buzzing around twitter on Friday was an NBC polls that showed HRC up by eight points in a two way, six in a four way. Deep breaths, people

  188. 188.

    Gelfling 545

    @Botsplainer: It’s a shame HRC has had no experience as a teacher. Then she could “teacher face” him. It’s very effective as everybody has experienced it some time. Still, as she’s an experienced mother, she at least has the rudiments. Everybody lnows The Look.

  189. 189.

    Botsplainer

    @Matt McIrvin:

    But any Democrat who is over 40 vividly remembers what the Reagan era was like…

    “Morning in America”, if you had inherited wealth or were a hedgie or bond trader. For everybody else, it was a long, slow, unlubed assbang that was supposed to be fun but left you really uncomfortable.

    I’m convinced that the “Black Swan” of ’87 actually reflected true market fundamentals, and occurred for valid reasons.

  191. 191.

    Schlemazel

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    . . . it is massively depressing that so many people are willing to vote for the racist pig

    This. Its not like I need any help getting depressed but it makes me want to abandon hope that any more than a tiny minority of this once proud nation can support some so obviously unqualified and unprepared.

  193. 193.

    Comrade Scrutinizer

    @Betty Cracker: The problem with ascribing white men voting for Trump primarily to sexism is that the Anyone but Hillary impulse has been so carefully crafted by the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy, abetted by the media, for the last 25 years. I don’t doubt that sexism is at play as well, but that meme is so well embedded in popular opinion that unpacking it is damned near impossible.

  194. 194.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    another obersvation on Plouffe

    Daniel ‏@ Taniel 10m10 minutes ago
    FWIW (he obvi has agenda, campaign assumptions can be wrong)—Plouffe says HRC private polling show her in good shape

    referring again to the KI1600 podcast, the reason those “internal polls’ we hear about are different from media/public polls is they are much more granular, targeted and campaigns spend a lot more money on polling than the media. And they’re not trying to gin up headlines

    @Gelfling 545: Still, as she’s an experienced mother, she at least has the rudiments. Everybody lnows The Look.

    Oh, I imagine she has a whole repertoire of “Looks”, not so much from Chelsea who I suspect wasn’t much trouble, but she’s been married for going on 40 years to a man who manifests all kinds of immaturity, from getting caught with his hands in the cookie jar to getting caught with his hands in…. never mind.

  195. 195.

    Schlemazel

    @Major Major Major Major:
    But there was a brief period, from around the mid 60’s to the 80’s where it was not cool to be publicly racist. They had to craw back into their shells and shut the fuck up.

    And even before that an enflamed asshole like Trump would have never led a major party

  196. 196.

    CaseyL

    OzarkHillbilly – The anesthesiologist screwed up?? OMG, that’s scary. It sounds like you still have all your marbles, though, which is a good thing. Give ’em hell when you see your doctor!

    Schlemazel – Congrats on not needing surgery. Hoping all works out well for you!

    Welcome home, Baud! We will need your keen insights for tonight’s debate, which I may or may not watch (can’t stand watching Trump) – but will definitely follow here and probably the Guardian liveblog.

    (The Guardian is fundraising. I sent them some money. Since I cancelled my subscription to the NYT, I’ve needed another “main news source,” and I’ve been visiting the Guardian regularly for years.)

  197. 197.

    Brachiator

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: The stuff about Obama losing the white under thirty vote, and a lot of the stuff about Clinton and Trump is incomplete because dopes insist on looking at national vote totals and national polls.

    This is wrong not just because we vote by states not national voting, but because some regions of the country are so racially skewed. There are places in the South where Romney got 90 percent of the white vote, including voters in all demographics.

    That said, it will be interesting to see what Southern demographics look like in the upcoming election.

  198. 198.

    JMG

    @Botsplainer: One thing about the ’80s. We white middle-class Boomers were really getting our footing in life, establishing careers and families. The working couple with children was also becoming a thing. As our lives expanded, I think a lot of us we relatively unaffected by Reagan even if we disapproved of him. I know I was less political then than now.

  199. 199.

    1,000 Flouncing Lurkers (was fidelioscabinet)

    @bemused: They haven’t suffered with each other. Let us consider, for a moment, how few people watch the news on television, whether CBS/NBC/ABC or cable–or listen to it on the radio–and how few now subscribe to newspapers, even on-line. I think a lot of that comes from disgust over the way they’ve met the challenges of the Clinton and Bush years, and I don’t think anything they’ve done during the Obama administration has redeemed them much in many eyes. Consider how few younger people are getting their news from television and newspapers these days, especially, and look at those newspapers they do read. It still astonishes me how much coverage we’re getting from The Guardian these days–and I think they’re aware they are filling a void in American media coverage, or they wouldn’t waste the space. TPM and Huffington Post wouldn’t have the impact they possess if people still felt the older media outlets were worth their while.

  200. 200.

    Schlemazel

    @Schlemazel:
    I also want to add that even during the 50’s it had become impolite to lynch black men. It was no longer a community celebration with photos and music but something done in the dark and not bragged about. Progress no matter how small is a point of pride and encouragement that this will be better.

    This feels more like pre-1964 again.

  203. 203.

    Elizabelle

    Love the photo of Korra. Caption could be “I’m dubious.”

    Seriously, I think every morning thread, and an afternoon thread, should include a photo of a pet for every day through the election. Can be up there, accompanying whatever the other artwork and graphics for the post are.

    So much doom and gloom and anxiety here. We need Balloon Juice therapy mascots.

    If need be, spotlight a pet that needs a forever home. Who can ever forget “Julia” in her disco dog scarf?

  204. 204.

    germy

    I’m going to play a drinking game during tonight’s debate. Every time I want to throw the remote at the TV I’ll take a sip instead.

  208. 208.

    Betty Cracker

    @Comrade Scrutinizer: I can believe that explanation for white men who voted for Obama in 2012 and are voting 3rd party in 2016. But people who are moving from Obama to Trump? Nope. They don’t get the benefit of the doubt.

  211. 211.

    1,000 Flouncing Lurkers (was fidelioscabinet)

    @Schlemazel: I’m beginning to think that every years is a shitty year one way or anther these days, but that sounds like some really great news to receive. I hope things continue to do well for you, health-wise.

  213. 213.

    CaseyL

    @Iowa Old Lady: Waterloo! Wasn’t Waterloo flooded really badly some years ago? I remember because a photo of a guy carrying his two ginger kitties to safety went viral.

  214. 214.

    rikyrah

    @Matt McIrvin:

    I’ve noticed that the people most upset about Clinton’s triangulation on trade and foreign policy are often the people most likely to want her to triangulate on race.

    that’s some truth there.

  215. 215.

    schrodinger's cat

    @Botsplainer: I know what you mean,even though I am agnostic at best. I love Sanskrit aartis and shlokas, also Urdu Qawwalis, and bhajans, aartis and abhangas in Marathi and Hindi. Very Peaceful.
    I would love to formally learn Sanskrit someday. It is lyrical language.
    Here is the hymn of creation (actual translation would be the hymn of nothingness)
    In short: No one knows how everything came into being from nothingness.

  217. 217.

    Brachiator

    @gogol’s wife:

    @WaterGirl:

    It would be easier to justify my keeping my subscription if some of that editorial-page wisdom ever made it to the front page.

    Tough crowd!

    I think the Times laid out an excellent case for Clinton and a damning case against Trump. This stuff belongs on Facebook feeds and other places.

    BTW. a sidebar to the Clinton endorsement was a link to brief summaries of every NT Times presidential endorsement since Lincoln. Fascinating peak into history.

  218. 218.

    Brachiator

    @Iowa Old Lady:

    Here are some pics of the flooding where I live, which is Waterloo-Cedar Falls, two towns that have grown into one.

    That’s some serious high water. Hang in there!

  222. 222.

    JR in WV

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    I think I got the best after my shoulder work. But it was different, you had rotator cuff repairs and tendon repair, correct? While I had bones sawed out and titanium-steel replacements installed.

    Second shoulder took twice as much painkiller post op, as tendons were more damaged than first one. Oxycodone IIRC. Was harder on me by far – bigger incision, puncture wounds from the clamps to hold things open, etc.

    Rehab went about the same, once I was ready for that. Same therapist. I already instructed you about PT, find someone you get along with, do what they say.

  224. 224.

    JR in WV

    @?BillinGlendaleCA:

    I like all your photos, not as into the fisheye as you are, but tastes differ. Like opiejeanne, I wish you would label the photos on flickr. Mostly you talk about them here on the blog, and if one clicks into the photostream from the blog that helps. But still… since you aren’t doing the smelly darkroom thing, commenting about the pix would be a good thing.

  225. 225.

    JR in WV

    @Kay:

    Hell, we’re in WV and are recruited to travel up into Ohio the weekends before the election to canvass door-to-door. And are calling into Ohio from WV right now, today. Followed by a debate watching party at a sports bar managed by a Hillary supporter.

    May not go into town, as all the broadcast channels will be carrying the proceedings. And can cuss that M-Fing Trump monster repeatedly, and get drunk w/o needing to drive home.

    Haven’t been drunk in a very long time, this may be obligatory tonite.

    Where does “pulling out of Ohio” come from? Local pols? Cause we aren’t here next door!

  226. 226.

    Lyrebird

    @germy: I care, I want to sleep at night, and I will NOT watch. I will toss some money at the NV-Sen, AZ-Sen, and NC-Sen races, though! And maybe MoveOn or somebody for GOTV.

  227. 227.

    JR in WV

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    For my actual surgery, they did a nerve block, by shooting lidocaine or similar right into the nerve line running into the shoulder and arm. The anesthetist used a probe with electric to find the nerve, my arm flopped like a dying fish when he hit it, and then he shot that spot with a ton of numbing agent.

    When I came to, I was being rolled down a hall to the “joint connection” ward, a wing that is exclusively reserved for joint repair patients (to reduce infections in people not already infected), where I spent the night on an IV, which they used to push additional meds including a 1 am dose for pain.

    ETA: I forgot momentarily that you also have post-op pneumonia! How’s that going for you now, and is that what you’re complaining about mostly? How’s your F’in shoulder?

  228. 228.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    @JR in WV: Well, the fisheye is my newest lens, so I’m still playing around with it. I do like to use it in a confined space, like a small church.

  229. 229.

    JR in WV

    @?BillinGlendaleCA:

    I have a Panasonic Lumix with one of those mega-zoom lenses, mine “by Leica” which I suspect means designed by Leica and built to their specs. It is a sweet camera, tho.

    Shoots in the dark by taking multiple exposures, tells you to hold the camera still and hold the shutter button down. Then the in-camera computer stacks the pixel bits, aligns all the exposures, makes a picture in the dark look like normal room lighting. Amazing the first time that came up. I think a bic lighter would illuminate a room!

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