For all of our Southeastern US readers, be safe and don’t be stupid as Hurricane Matthew bears down.
An 11:03 pm Wednesday fix from the Air Force hurricane hunters found that Matthew had finally closed off its eyewall, and the central pressure had dropped to 959 mb. In its 11 pm EDT discussion, NHC noted that Matthew’s eye–once again distinct on satellite imagery–has contracted to about 17 miles wide, another sign of strengthening. It may take until midday Thursday for any substantial drop in Matthew’s pressure to result in a stronger wind field. NHC predicts that Matthew will again hit Category 4 intensity by Thursday evening. The 00Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast gave an 11% chance that Matthew would intensify enough to become a Category 5 storm again by Thursday night….
Should Matthew continue on its due-northwest track, it would come uncomfortably close to making landfall along the urban corridor from Miami to Palm Beach. Our most reliable track models insist that Matthew will begin angling just to the right before landfall, which would keep the southern part of this corridor on Matthew’s weaker side. Broward County (including Fort Lauderdale) is in a hurricane warning, while Miami-Dade County is in a tropical storm warning. The risk of dangerous impacts, including hurricane-force winds, ramps up greatly from Palm Beach northward. The most recent NHC forecast (see Figure 2 above) keeps Matthew as a Category 4 hurricane as it reaches the Melbourne area on Friday morning and a strong Category 3 by Friday evening just east of Jacksonville.
A reminder, Category 5 is what Andrew and Katrina were. Big, bad voodoo. Sandy despite all of her destruction was only a middling Category 1 storm when it came ashore in New Jersey. Matthew is a big powerful storm so please don’t be stupid, get away from the coast if possible and please don’t go surfing.
Unless you’re a lurking repub, in which case BANZAIIII!
Wunderground maps have this seemingly glancing the coast, not actually moving onshore. So is this worse, in that it stays mostly over water and keeps its strength longer, or better that the eye never strikes land? If the eyewall does indeed rake 100s of miles of the coast, goodbye FL insurance premiums next year, as 2016 claims would be in the billions.
@Punchy: Even if the eye never makes a landfall, a Cat 3/4 storm with an eye 20 to 50 miles out to see that grinds up the Florida coast will cause a lot of damage. Yeah, the Florida hurricane insurance fund is fucked in that scenario.
I didn’t know that they believed it would be a 4.???
The trouble is that the east coast will get hit with the storm surges, and the rest of the state is going to get high winds and flooding.
And if the models are right, Matthew is going to do a barrel roll and circle back to cross OVER the state a few days later and head into the Gulf where it’ll threaten everyplace from Mexico to Mobile. Fun times.
Still plenty of time to move away. If you stay remember, storm surge and flooding inland are the greatest killers so stay away from coastal areas and areas that flood easily. If in that type of area you really should leave now and don’t wait.
I’m in Palmetto Bay, south of miami and the first real bands of rain are starting to come through. Winds are not bad either. Going to be a boring couple of days at my location with lots of rain and spiffy winds. I usually support several friends with weather updates and prognostications for their specific area during storms. One has a house on New Smyrna beach which is at risk, my brother lives near west palm beach, a friend is a boat captain on a 115′ mega yacht, my daughter lives in Ocala which which is looking better with the latest forecast, and lots of friends up and down the coast. And since I am basically south of where the mayhem (not Mayhew) will occur I am at the ready to load up my trailer and truck and deliver whatever they need in the aftermath.
@Wayne: Remember, storm tracks can change quickly and you may not be missed. Not likely but possible so be ready too for the storm surge/main storm.
Iowa Old Lady
@Woodrowfan: You have to say “Thanks Obama/Clinton” now. They worked as a team making all policy and running the country for years, as far as I can tell from R talking points.
@Iowa Old Lady: O’Clinton!
One bit of news today that does not make a lot of sense. They claim that Hillary is carrying more white voters than President Obama did in 2012. How is that possible with her lead being so narrow? Either polls are way off or she is missing a lot of normally democratic voters.
Wife and I tried body surfing near Destin while Andrew trecked east to west to the south in the Gulf. The waves were so unpredictable – at one point I was standing on the samd with the wife spinning in a wave I’d guess 30 feet in the air. We both were thrown violently down into the sand spinning . One time the waves retreated far from the beach and my father and kids decided to look for starfish. When the ocean came back we thought all three would die. We all made it, but yes, don’t surf.
The cells are converging!
FL insurance premiums never got unfucked after the 2004 storms, at least for us coastal dwellers. We had damage from Charley, never made a claim and State Farm still kicked us to the curb, and we could only get expensive, crappy coverage through Citizens. I guess they’ll jack up our rates even more and cover less if this is nasty one.
PS: Stay safe, everyone.
I eagerly await the destruction to become bitter campaign fodder, as Rubio claims Murphy is against rebuilding, and HRC claims that climate change is making this worse, and Scott and Pat Robertson blame gay liberals for this, Alex Jones calls the whole thing a hoax, and Sean Hannity and Limbaugh lose their entire houses right after they let their insurance coverage lapse.
@Cermet: Millenials are still weak and a lot of Obama votes are still parked in Stein/Johnson or Undecided right now. Undecided is still higher than it was in 2012. Those numbers are going to get compressed in the next three weeks so as long as Clinton holds her white support, she should be looking at least an Obama 2008 level of victory if not higher once her marginal voters come home.
I read on one of the sites, that Hillary bought ad time on the weather channel. The viewership should be high.
Hopefully the storm moves through with minimal damage to the United States, but that is looking unlikely.
Will Trump use the storm damage as an excuse to not debate?
@Richard Mayhew: I think you’re right. I expect Clinton to win by a wider margin than Obama did, primarily because Trump is so awful and will be on the wrong end of a record-setting gender gap, IMO.
@JPL: He’ll almost certainly use the storm to grandstand in some way. I hope it backfires on the pig.
@Richard Mayhew: New poll this morning says Obama approval up to 55%. But then Bill’s approval was high in 2000.
Obama going to NC to campaign for Hillary.
Some colleagues at work are at an international conference in Orlando that ends tomorrow. There’s talk of them renting an SUV to make the trek back home, but one can imagine I-95N being a parking lot for much of the way. I’m sure many of the foreign attendees are freaking out.
I’m reminded that even seemingly not-so-bad storms can kill. A few years ago we heard stories of oldsters dying in their homes because of an extended power outage after a snow storm that brought down some trees. They lost power so their oxygen concentrator pumps died, and they ran out of bottled oxygen because the roads were blocked too long…
Be careful, everyone.
@Richard Mayhew: PEC’s model regards an Obama 2008-level victory as nearly impossible at this point–less likely than Trump winning. Remember, Obama won not just Ohio and Iowa, but also Indiana, in addition to NC. Nothing like that is going to happen.
A win roughly comparable to Obama 2012 is well within reach.
@Wayne: Howdy, neighbor. I’m also in Palmetto Bay. Very quiet now…but I remember the same situation before Katrina and Wilma.
@Matt McIrvin: I wouldn’t say “impossible”. Reagan’s 1980 landslide didn’t appear until very, very late. Few expected the senate to flip when the day started.
There are still lots of rakes for Donnie to step on before 11/8.
But we can’t take things for granted.
I have to laugh a bit at those who were predicting a big Clinton win when she was up after the convention for a spell, grew silent when that lead evaporated and are now predicting a big win again.
@Matt McIrvin: Obama 2008 was +7.5
Right now with a lot of undecided and people in 3rd parties Clinton is showing +6 or so averaged out. Assuming the 3rd party leaners if forced to choose one of the big two helps Clinton (a reasonable assumption as Clinton does better H2H than 4-way) and some of the undediced break her way AND the GOP ground game is a shit show, I could see an extra net point or two.
@RK: Agree. Dems are collectively bipolar.
@Cermet: Clinton is opening up a wide lead in latest polling starting to come out i past 48 hours. In fact, it is so bad that the GOP hierarchy are running for fresh diapers and discussing exactly how soon and when to dump Trump and try to save the down ballot races in the Senate and House. Latest projections give Hillary Clinton 82% chance of winning, and chance of Dems taking Senate has pushed to about 57%.
@Richard Mayhew: Very good points that I overlooked/didn’t consider. Just hope she makes President Obama’s 2012 level of victory! If her debates keep Florida blue (and the Hurricane reminds many people there why they want a functional Federal Government), she will, I am sure.
@Mart: On 30A?
@HeartlandLiberal: Drum has similar comments this morning:
It’s hard to see Donnie doing better as more people start paying attention.
Just saw the ultimate all-Trump all the time moment on CNN. I had tuned in because my Mom lives in Ponte Vedra Beach and I wished to know something about Matthew. There’s Mike Pence’s mug with the caption “Pence on the Hurricane.” I’m going to assume he was against it.
@Thing Three: You are stupid, irrelevant to this thread and frankly, trying to be an ass here as a troll.
Interesting question. He might tweet “Unlike my opponent I CARE about the devestation therefore I will be touring the damage and will not debate. Crooked Hillary will be hiding out on the debate stage. What is she afraid of?”
Ceci n'est pas mon nym
@germy: When a ditto head is standing in water caused by a sea level rise, and listening to Rush telling him there is no sea level rise, which does he believe?
@Ceci n’est pas mon nym: I’ve seen their beliefs evolve over the past two decades. First they were “There’s no global warming.” Then they were “Well, there’s some climate change, but that’s normal and natural, not manmade.” “Now they’re all “Climate has been changing ever since the earth was created. Sometimes it gets hotter, sometimes it gets colder. But none of this has anything to do with the fossil fuel industry.”
@Richard Mayhew: I see people who were anti-Clinton actually getting into the Clinton boat.
@germy: Limbaugh’s place in Palm Beach is right in the target area of the hurricane. Karma strikes twice.
@Mustang Bobby: Rush owns multiple residences. It won’t even be a blip on his radar if his Palm Beach house is destroyed. Wealth is an excellent insulator.
@Cermet: You are correct but I am safely out of the margin of error. I am also located on the highest elevation in my area.
@Betty Cracker: A year ago I got kicked out of Citizens. Forget who I am with but the premiums actually went down some.
@Mustang Bobby: Nobody expects
the Spanish InquisitionInstant Karma!
@Wayne: I’m alongside the canal that runs parallel to SW 77th Avenue. They’ve lowered the water level and I’m hoping it we won’t see the 3 to 5 inches they’re predicting.
@Thing Three: I lived thru Sandy and it was a big deal. I lost my house because of insurance fraud. One trick the adjusters use is rigged software. They didn’t actually consider the extent of the damage, but based their results on sq. ft. FEMA, NFIP are instruments of the insurance industry.
So, I would say it was a big deal.
@Baud: But Gore did not want Clinton to campaign for him (BIG mistake, IMHO). Obama AND Michelle are doing everything they can for Clinton. So not the same scenario.
@Mustang Bobby: Yes sir! I remember you. It’s always amazing how it can go from quiet to crazy in a short time.
@yellowdog: Agree. Just saying that high approvals don’t necessarily translate into the same party winning the White House. Could also point to Ike/Nixon in 1960.
@Wayne: Yeah, I remember Wilma went from zero to disaster in two hours. But as long as the power stays on and the poinciana in the back yard doesn’t take out the roof, I’ll consider myself very lucky.
@Mustang Bobby: My wife and I ride out bikes in your area. I noticed the water level was down at coral reef park. We’re located off 87 ave, 147 terr.
Just called my Mom. She, my cousin and her husband, who all live in the same golf course gated community, are evacuating to Tallahassee this morning.
Ike is running this year?
@Wayne: I’m near SW 168th & Old Cutler Road. This house survived Andrew so I guess it will make it through this one.
@Baud: Ike pretty notoriously didn’t go all out for Nixon in 1960.
@Baud: Ike didn’t do Nixon any favors when a reporter asked him what contribution Nixon had made to the Eisenhower administration and he replied, “Well, if you give me a week, I might think of something.” Even so, the result was that Kennedy won by a hair.
Hurricane Matt is liable to….flatten….large parts. Matt may….finish…off small cities on the coast. I wouldn’t want Matt at the door of my house. Or….gym, either.
@Baud: good morning. Also, Never forget the Palm Beach ballot misdesign. Thousands of Gore votes, going to par Buchanan. Gore won the nationwide popular vote by 500,000. Gore squeaked it out in 2000. We got Boy Blunder care of the Supremes, Jeb, ands horrible ballot design error. Sorry for typos. iPhone.
@Baud: Ike despised Nixon, didn’t campaign for him, IIRC.
peach flavored shampoo
/looks at projected path again, sees zero change from last night
Tallahassee? WTF? Is the entire state going to bail?
Why do you hate Florida Man?
@Elizabelle: The infamous “butterfly ballot”. And hanging chads. And lots and lots of really old, nearly blind voters. Sigh.
@peach flavored shampoo: They are evacuating to Tallahassee not from Tallahassee.
Unless, you actually know what you are doing. Surfing in Japan revolves around typhoon swells. Surfers are honed at watching the storms progress and picking and choosing the best points and times to take advantage of the swell. Genuine surfers on the Atlantic coast of the US do the same. It is a 100% certainty that there are groups of surfers moving up the Atlantic coast, keeping ahead of the storm and finding the best surf. I’ve surfed scores of typhoon swells. It can be done quite safely if one understands the weather and ones own ability.
@peach flavored shampoo: TO Tallahassee
Gin & Tonic
Probably the first jazz record I bought was Ahmad Jamal playing Poinciana
Stay safe, Florida Juicers.
Florida hasn’t had much of anything happen TS related in about 10 years. and n that time the east side has grown a lot. lots of completely-ready-for-a-hurricane types around.
Jeff Masters at Weather Underground this morning:
And it was Gore’s stupid decision to not capitalize on that. Hillary is not so stupid. Obama has her back and she has his.
A number of wingnut friends (some of whom I had considered persuadable) hauled off and did early voting. They were very gleeful about it – “Ain’t nothin’ changin’ mah mahnd ’bout Donald Trump!” I’m wondering if the GOP is suddenly calling on the base to go vote now so they don’t lose any more to Sudden Onset Reality.
We’ve seen our share of hurricanes here in NC, but this one reminds ‘those who know’ of Hazel…luckily, the science has gotten pretty accurate and evacuation orders will be mandatory.
A ‘major’ hurricane is its own animal, and the dread is well earned. Hugo dropped down to tropical storm strength right over my apt back in ’89, tho 70mph vs 74mph wasn’t much of a break and I’ve learned that any organized storm is deadly; anybody who poo-poos Sandy is a know-nothing fuckface
lots of NOT ready that is.
@Betty Cracker: Mar-a-Lago will be literally in the eye of the hurricane. He’ll be able to write off another huge loss next year.
@Cermet: The recent polls have not been all that narrow, certainly not as narrow as the Obama/Romney polls four years ago. My view in 2012 was that the percentage of white people voting Republican had probably peaked, because of implicit or explicit bias against Obama. My view has always been that Clinton may lose votes due to bias against women or more specifically, women in power, but now, with Trump, there will probably be fewer of those because of how crazy Trump is as a candidate. I really don’t know whether Trump’s explicit appeal to white privilege will result in more whites voting for him, or whether we are just seeing people who are very loud and happy to be able to scream their racial grievances. There are many people who are offended and even frightened by him. As the election moves closer and voters ask themselves whether his great potential downside will more than offset his perceived potential reward (which I don’t see but apparently many voters do), it would not surprise me if they became more risk averse and either voted for Clinton or didn’t vote at all.
BTW: In my midnight blue county, I have seen very few Trump signs but saw for the first time a sign that said, simply, “Write in Kasich.”
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OT: Harry at FiveThirtyEight has a little thing out saying Trump’s doing worse with white voters than Romney did, so, I guess we’re doomed.
EDIT: Dang, missed it by that much.
peach flavored shampoo
@Starfish: Ah, reading not my forte this morning. My bad.
Actually a lot of the state will evacuate. We are a long skinny piece of land, pretty flat, big population and hurricanes are never perfectly predicted in paths. Ya’ll may be looking at the track and thinking we know where it’s going. Experience has taught us, it’s going to do something a bit different so we have to imagine 6 or 7 tracks. Look up spaghetti tracks for this hurricane (or any hurricane) that will show you all the different forecasts from different models and most of them are right some of the time. Just a tiny pressure differential at some point and the storm will veer and hit somewhat different than the plans. Andrew did that. I think Charlie did too, last minute slight veer. Anyway what that means is people try (if they have money or friends) to get well away from the projected paths AND the wind bands. Then we wait which is usually tedious and boring, especially if you lose power and have bored kids. Florida has more hotel rooms per capita than most states but not enough to handle millions of sudden migrators. We go stay with friends. It’s cheaper and the next one, it will probably be the friends staying with you. My parents coastal friends of 50 years come stay with them every storm because they are inland. Hurricanes lose power over land, so if one comes in one coast and goes out the other, the power by the time it exits is a lot less. Knowing to get out early before the traffic jam and then go sit patiently, saves lives. 2004 was bad because by the time #4 came, lots of people were running out of money to evacuate and had lost wages from shut down times. Where your friends or family with a couch lives, is also a factor in evacuating further than the hurricane itself. Also hotels just beyond the projected paths will be full so you may have to go further.
@Mike E: Tropical cyclones are intense. But in Japan, there is little for anyone to do but sit tight and hope. There is literally no where to evacuate to. Some people are brought down out of the sparsely populated villages in the mountains as the interior is actually more dangerous than river plains we all live on. Landslides in the steep rugged mountains are a real danger with the heavy rain. This year my town had a “rain typhoon,” and we got 315mm of rain from the storm. We were lucky and missed any ones with big wind this year. I sat through a Category 3 storm (like I said, we got no where to go…I mean where would we go…Korea?) and at the most intense moments our three story solid concrete apartment building was swaying in the wind gusts. I pray a Category 5 never comes this way…but…
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@Barbara: Emoji Martin said last night that the internals in both campaigns are just brutal for Trump, and that internals tend to push ‘undecided’ voters a lot harder than other pollsters. So there could well be a sizable chunk of Trump-curious voters out there who nonetheless see Trump as a bad idea.
One imagines something similar might have happened if the Brexit campaign had rolled along for, I don’t know, a year.
@Thing Three: I live in Virginia and when Sandy came through my house literally shook for at least three hours. In any event MOST hurricane related damage, certainly most loss of life, is due to rain not wind. The Saffir-Simpson scale is misleading because it is based solely on wind, so people think a category 2 or 3 storm is no big deal. Hurricane Agnes was a category 2/3 storm that was one of the worst storms of all time. Certainly, Camille, still the only storm to have made landfall in the U.S. as a category 5 was the worst storm of all time prior to Katrina, but that was because the intensity of the wind combined with the intensity of the storm surge. Most people who died drowned. Also true with Hurricane Katrina.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Just saw on MSNBC that Trump is holding a last minute town hall to practice for Sunday. I wonder how closely Kellyanne and the Borises are screening the questions. They announced it publicly, to the media will be watching closely
Friends who live on Amelia Island decided Mobile AL was probably far enough, but if your scenario holds true, they may decide to relocate to, say, Wyoming.
Major Major Major Major
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: That’s hilarious, like doing one big super-brush right before the dentist to make up for years of not flossing.
Or a clown. WTF with all the clown sightings? They’ve made it all the way up here now. Is nowhere safe???
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
New entry in the Band Naming Contest!
I’m still holding out for Black Velvet Elvis.
@gvg: You’re right on about the uncertainty in the projections. We were in a mandatory evac area for Charley but decided to stay put because we could see it take an unexpected turn south of us. Then it tore up the interior, which is where we would have gone had we heeded the order. My stepmom and granny spent the night in a hotel hallway and had their vehicle pelted to death with rocks from a hotel next door with a gravel roof. They’d have been fine if they stayed home. You just never know. It’s definitely smart to get away from a potential coastal storm surge. But the wind, rain and tornadoes can follow you all over the state.
The news on NPR says that reports now coming out of Haiti say that it may be the most catastrophic event since the earthquake. Florida isn’t Haiti, of course, but the potential for catastrophe is still there. Keep safe!
@Cermet: I live in Coastal NJ and live on the shore….about 1/4 mile from the beach. And until the lead dude from Weather Underground, when I emailed him, told me that based on elevation (very close to the beach but 20 ft above sea level) that I didn’t have to worry, (lost some siding but that’s it….town lost part of the boardwalk, most houses OK) I was thinking about where I’d go. Dogs and cats so most hotels wouldn’t accept us..if there were any left with vacancy. Closest family lived on a bay shore but one that turned out to be as dangerous as the ocean shore (although they were spared). I’m not rich but I’ve got enough to pay for whatever hotel has vacancy…if they have vacancy. While some are stubborn “I can weather this” idiots, I think most people stay because there is nowhere else to go. (and yes, many shelters have an “eff your pets” policy…sorry, I ain’t leaving my pets to face a danger I’m fleeing)
Maybe because it’s the first storm I really remember as a kid, I have a fascination with Hurricane Camille:
It is estimated that it hit land with winds at 200 mph, but no one will ever know because it took out every wind measurement gauge that was in its path.
@OGLiberal: Having pets is what kept my friends in Gulfport when Katrina made a direct hit on the town. Fortunately their house, which flooded to counter height, was on higher ground and beyond a railroad embankment, which reduced some of the storm surge. Theirs was literally one of the only houses left standing after Katrina.
And where they would have gone, north of I10, was swept away and a family member killed.
@OGLiberal: Yeah it isn’t as simple as it sounds. I suppose you could gas up the car, load everyone in and just keep driving and driving ever westward, ever westward. But if you guess wrong and get stuck weathering the storm in your car…that would be double plus ungood.
Has any Republican declared this to be Obama’s Katrina yet?
We lived in Brevard County when Andy blew through South Florida. I mentioned on the early morning thread that we had several people tell us hurricanes would never hit that part of Florida because of some magic they believed the Gulf currents created. I hope those people do not really believe that BS and got prepared & got the hell out but some of them are just not that bright so it could be really bad for them.
I am at National Airport in DC (DCA) and just got accosted by a local news crew asking if I was having travel issues because of the weather. She was looking for a story. The thought briefly crossed my mind to make up a real sob story and see if I could work up some tears about my kids & when she asked where they were I would say “Out on the frozen tundra” & tell her I was headed to the Midwest. But I decided against it. I guess I am slipping in my old age.
Major Major Major Major
@magurakurin: I did that one time, it’s how I ended up in San Francisco.
In all seriousness though y’all stay safe! I can’t even imagine how stressful this must be!
@satby: I just read a report that said less than 1% of buildings in the capital are unharmed. This is just another blow that will take years to recover from, even with international assistance.
Bobby, Wayne, I am just a few miles south of you. I’m with Bobby. If we manage not to have one of our mango trees crash on the roof, we’re ahead of the game.
@Major Major Major Major: actually, that’s how I ended up in Japan…
Major Major Major Major
@Barbara: my grandma (what’s left of her, FY Alzheimer’s) is named Camille. She was not amused when that one rolled around.
Rolling from Satellite Beach to Orlando now. The Beeline is surprisingly, uh, uncongested, considering. (We’re near the Turnpike exit.)
I’m betting against an east-to-west crossover. The storm socking the beachside condo we’re renting is… not worth the relentless angst.
It was amazing to learn after Katrina of how there were networks of systems to deliver drugs and oxygen all over the rural bits of Mississippi.
I had never given it a thought. Civilization is complicated!
@OGLiberal: and then there is taking your animal loving game to a whole other level….cat man
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@magurakurin: I’ve only ever gone there from the west, silly me.
@Major Major Major Major: I left Philly for Arizona, Arizona for Oregon and then Oregon for Japan. I went so far west I ended up in the Far East.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I heard it was invitation only. The questions may be self-screened – or of the “How high are you going to string up that bitch?” variety. Which is not really helpful for the debate townhall with Hillary.
The best thing for Trump would be to get real challenging questions to get practice.
Josh Marshall is worried that the hurricane will keep Florida red because the destruction will be concentrated in the most Democratic-voting areas of the state. Florida’s Democrats may be too busy reassembling their lives to vote. Remember that the lasting political effect of Hurricane Katrina was that it turned Louisiana into a deep red state by physically removing so many of its African-Americans.
In my experience evacuation is often worse than riding it out depending of course on how far you are from the coast.
Hurricane Rita was a good example. 107 deaths due to evacuation.
The issue is never stay and it turn’s out your call was correct; that does occur but only for a very tiny minority; for the millions in its path, best to leave. As for pets, we solved that one by calling ahead and getting a reservation at a pet friendly place before the mass stampede (many years ago when the West coast of Fl was nailed.) Solutions are there but one must be on their game … .
@Davebo: @Davebo: Again, works for you but is totally wrong advice for millions that look to be directly in its sites; yes, experts (who are ussally right for reasons that are heavily backed by science and extensive detailed studies) can get some cases wrong but that isn’t logic but being the lucky one with the winning ticket – still a suckers bet.
@Another Scott: 1980 happened in a period of much lesser polarization and greater volatility in US politics. Big late swings were much more likely then. There was also a third-party candidate who was much more prominent than Gary Johnson or Jill Stein, until he faded late in the campaign–that made everything much more uncertain.
Evacuating 3 million people in less than 24 hours hours is a catastrophe waiting to happen. And that’s just Miami to Ft Lauderdale.
Since 2000 there have been 63 storms affecting Florida resulting in 69 direct fatalities. While property damage has been horrific loss of life just hasn’t been that staggering.
@Major Major Major Major: Just try to think how Katrina of “Katrina and the Waves” must feel. Talk about unfortunate coincidences . . .
@Matt McIrvin: It’s October 6. I have more faith in Obama’s willingness and ability to assist Florida than in W’s willingness and ability to assist New Orleans.
Major Major Major Major
@Davebo: just spitballing here, but that might have something to do with evacuating people who are in danger?
peach flavored shampoo
@Matt McIrvin: I’d agree with Josh if the election was ~10 days away. But a month seems like sufficient time to get most of these people back and in the area to vote. I see his concern but it’s a nothingburger.
@Major Major Major Major: Not necessarily. Hurricanes are most dangerous to people who are not properly sheltered. That means people in their cars on roads where it is not clear how deep the water is, people in trailers, and the stupid people standing on the beach. Here are a list of shelters in central Florida.
The NHC is predicting 6-10 inches of rain along the coast from FL to NC, with areas of 10-15 inches in SC and NC.
This has the potential to be a devastating storm… :-(
@Another Scott: Ack. Link fail. I’ll try to fix it here, and delete the previous…
The NHC is predicting 6-10 inches of rain along the coast from FL to NC, with areas of 10-15 inches in SC and NC.
This has the potential to be a devastating storm… :-(
And they used to say “modeling is fake science because it’s not hard data.” (As they used their TVs, timers, temperature sensors and other transistors; flew their planes according to forecasts; baa baa baa.)
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@Starfish: there’s also the question of post-storm support though right? If the infrastructure (water etc.) will be damaged/constricted it becomes important that those who can leave, do?
@Mike E: I was thinking that Hazel was the hurricane that blew down part of the Yankee Cannonball roller coaster at Canobie Lake Park in NH… but, no, that was Carol, which was also in 1954–and Edna hit New England ten days later. But Hazel killed a bunch of people in Toronto.
@Major Major Major Major:
The aftermath of the storm is the worst part in my experience mainly loss of electricity. After Ike my power was out for over 2 weeks.
But I can’t leave and stay gone for two weeks, that’s just not possible. My late wife and I would go everyday to a friends restaurant that had power. The A/C and wifi was nice but you just can’t spend all day drinking margaritas for too many days!
I strongly beg to differ.
@Cermet: uh–my 87 year old mother in law has pneumonia and she is the guardian for my 90 year old father in law with dementia. They cant go anywhere.
@Emma: Yeah, those trees coming down on roofs is teh sux. I had experience.
@Dork: It does make sleeping without air conditioning easier.
@Aimai: I read after Katrina that Cuba consistently has lower fatalities during hurricanes because their disaster preparedness includes evacuating medically impaired people as well as allowing people to bring their pets along. Sounds like something a state should test out if they wanted to improve compliance.
Latest update on track has it actually hitting higher up on FL, closer to Melbourne or Daytona Beach. That would seem to spare Mar-a-lago from the worst. And keep the Democratic base in SoFla largely intact.
So the bad and the good, respectively.
I was really surprised how much damage Sandy did in New Jersey right at the Delaware river. Knocked down a lot of really big trees. Lots of damage to houses. Strangely, right across the river in Pennsylvania, it wasn’t as bad
In-laws are coming to Pennsylvania from Charleston SC. They were evacuated, so they are coming here for a visit
I assume you mean they can’t move permanently, not that they can’t evacuate if there’s a mandatory evacuation order. IIRC, local hospitals are often able to shelter people with medical issues.
Cuba has one of the best hurricane-ready infrastructures in the world.
The Moar You Know
We have a storm warning saying here in SoCal: when in doubt…paddle out.
We get great hurricane waves, but those waves come from about 800 miles away minimum. Water’s too cold here to support a hurricane.
For now, anyway. Our land climate has definitely changed and I see no reason the same won’t happen to the ocean.
@Aimai: Wow, I hope they come through the storm safely.
@Emma: Yep, crashing broken trees and their pieces are basically my only fear with this storm. I have food, fuel, generator and ahem, booze. I be ready.
Katrina was Cat 3 when it came ashore. OTOH, it had been a Cat 5, but the real point is that the storm surge was huge – far higher than for Camille.
The Category system does not correlate well to storm surge. It is driven by a combination of size, strength, and duration.
@Dork: Or at least test thoroughly to find out what is too many days of drinking margaritas all day
After Katrina some rules were changed so shelters can take pets but I think you have to crate them. We have a largish dog and his crate takes up too much room in the car. We need to look for a folding one I guess.
People with medical issues can too evacuate and probably should earlier.
Obama hired Florida’s FEMA director instead of a big donor friend so I don’t expect the response to be incompetant. I think Bill Clinton also hired ours away after he was elected. Bush I’s loss was partly credited to the poor Andrew response.
It was incredibly aggravating to watch the other states turn out to be so unprepared for Katrina and Rita? right after. I had always assumed the other states had paid attention to Florida’s problems after Andrew and how much better things worked for us in 2004 (first real test of our improved plans) but it turned out the other states hadn’t bothered. Its not ALL the Federal government. the state FEMA’s make a huge difference and you have to have the will for them to actually work. Texas couldn’t even figure out how to change the lane directions so their interstates could use all lanes for evacuation. You can’t wait to plan and practice these things. In the Florida newspapers each winter their will be these little conferences for planning between government and private companies. Utility companies, insurance companies, highway department…..all sorts of mini conferences to plan different aspects of the problems. Big companies plan how to protect their businesses. Specialty companies like Home Depot plan how to ship in the supplies people need. Walmart rents big parking lots to both government and suppliers as staging areas. I found out that Florida “stages” repair supplies and people across the state line away from the possible wind zones waiting for it to be over, in large walmart parking lots. Then when it’s gone, they hit the interstate and head down to where they are needed. Watch the interstate afterwards and there is this impressive convoy traffic of 100’s of utility trucks, national guard, grocery and home repair sources, insurance people heading to where the storm actually hit. It’s impressive how organized it is, like watching an invasion. Makes me proud of humans. but i didn’t realize till Katrina that what I saw in 2004 was mostly Florida not the Feds. Bush II didn’t care even though his dad supposedly lost reelection partially because of Andrew. Of course Katrina was after his reelection…
Florida also now tends to put in traffic lights that can be lowered to the ground when a hurricane is coming, then raised again after so we don’t get as many lines down totally. When they can afford it, places put in underground utilities too. fewer powerlines on the ground after a storm.
@Barbara: Saffir-Simpson focuses on sustained winds- wind gusts can get much higher.
Also, wind is deadly to those in manufactured homes, which are plentiful in Florida. That is why many Florida counties required residents of manufactured homes to evacuate even if they are away from the coast, depending on the sustained wind speeds.
If you have the financial, physical, mental, and technological capability to evacuate, please do so.
@gvg: Something else to Florida’s credit (rare coming from me) is that the building codes take hurricanes into consideration. Other Gulf states lag far behind in that department. I don’t believe Texas has any building codes reflecting hurricane risk.
@catclub: Also, the levee system was supposed to be able to handle a storm surge from a Cat 3 (but not from a Cat 5), but some of the floodwalls were defective.
@LurkerExtraordinaire: Right, but a “lesser” hurricane that dumps a lot more rain because it is big or sticks around for a long time can be just as deadly. Obviously, everyone should worry about a category 4 or 5 hurricane — but they should also worry about ones with lower ratings as well, which is how the scale ends up being somewhat misleading.
@Barbara: Right. The scale doesn’t cover all factors, so forecasters really try to hammer home the rainfall aspect as well.
They are already concerned about river flooding inland along the Saint Johns river. Inland areas are at risk from wind, rain, and floods, too.
Stay safe, fam.