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You are here: Home / Nature & Respite / Faunasphere / Friday Morning Open Thread: An Inspiration to Us All

Friday Morning Open Thread: An Inspiration to Us All

by Anne Laurie|  October 7, 20165:50 am| 226 Comments

This post is in: Faunasphere, Hillary Clinton 2016, Open Threads, Daydream Believers

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Via beloved commentor SiubhanDuinne. Hillary Clinton has an excellent media team supporting her.

And for comic relief, an inspiration to all us chair-rooted bloggers, from the Washington Post:

… Wombats are epic burrowers. Their warrens can be 10 feet deep, 16 feet long, and include up to 50 entrances. What’s more, a wombat may use up to 10 different burrows within its home range. With all that subterranean infrastructure, the wombat would much prefer to duck inside a hole than stand and fight with a dingo. The only catch is wombats are kind of chubby, weighing up to 80 pounds, which means those burrows have to be sort of large.

So what prevents a predator from plunging down the hobbit hole after a wombat? Oh, only one of the most formidable fannies in the animal kingdom.

“A wombat’s rump is very tough,” says Alyce Swinbourne, a PhD candidate at the University of Queensland. “Their dermal shield is essentially four fused back bones or plates covered in cartilage, fat, thick skin, and fur.”…

… All of that gristle is the wombat’s primary defense against dingoes and other predators. The wombat simply dives into its burrow and plugs up the end with its caboose. The predator can claw and bite at the wombat’s backside all it wants, but those buns of steel protect it from any significant harm.

There’s even evidence that a wombat dermal shield can be used as an offensive weapon, a la Captain America. It’s thought that when a predator becomes too persistent, the wombat can slam its butt against the roof or walls of the burrow and literally crush the skull of its enemy…

Apart from hoping that ‘Sir Diermahl Shielde’ shows up as a minor character in next season’s Game of Thrones, what’s on the agenda as we wrap up the week?

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Previous Post: « Early Morning Open Thread: Professional Reporters (Also) Sick of Trump’s Shtick
Next Post: Hurricane Update »

Reader Interactions

226Comments

  1. 1.

    MattF

    October 7, 2016 at 5:54 am

    Natural selection works!

  2. 2.

    Sm*t Cl*de

    October 7, 2016 at 5:56 am

    The last thing a fox sees — on-coming wombat arse.

  3. 3.

    rikyrah

    October 7, 2016 at 6:02 am

    Good Morning?, Everyone?

  4. 4.

    Luthe

    October 7, 2016 at 6:02 am

    Wombats also produce cube-shaped poop./the more you know

  5. 5.

    Debbie(aussie)

    October 7, 2016 at 6:03 am

    Don’t you just love Aussie animal. Pouched roos’s, barbed platypus, the afore mentioned big arsed wombats and not forgetting the jellyfish, snakes and sharks. Hoping like crazy that the east coat states of US are not to severely damages, excepting of course Mar-A-Largo.

  6. 6.

    Cermet

    October 7, 2016 at 6:05 am

    I am sick of news sources saying that the Hurricane has been down graded to Cat III; the way they are phrasing this gives an impression that the storm is now weak; yes, it weaken from Cat IV to III but 120 mph winds with gusts to 160 mph isn’t a weak storm but a monster killer storm! Normally, such storms rarely last as Cat III when it hits shore. But this monster is running up the Florida coast as a Cat III. Ridiculous news reporting.

  7. 7.

    Sm*t Cl*de

    October 7, 2016 at 6:06 am

    @Debbie(aussie):

    not forgetting the jellyfish, snakes and sharks

    The totally adorbs blue-ringed octopus deserves a mention too.
    And the spiders. And the dropbears. And the antivax campaigners.

  8. 8.

    raven

    October 7, 2016 at 6:09 am

    @Debbie(aussie): Had lunch with a friend and her dad yesterday. They are from Safety Bay and he was here for a reunion of the USS Frank E Evans and members of the HMAS Melbourne. I had no idea but the Melbourne rammed the Evans in an accident in 1969 and 74 Americans died. While both ships we in and out of the designated Vietnam War “zone” they were outside of if at the time of the accident and the names of the sailors killed are not on the Wall. He was quite a guy, 12 years in the RAN and worked in mining for years.

  9. 9.

    satby

    October 7, 2016 at 6:12 am

    @Cermet:

    Ridiculous news reporting.

    It is a day ending in y.

  10. 10.

    bystander

    October 7, 2016 at 6:13 am

    Maybe Trump had a wombat ass fused to his head. That would explain a lot.

  11. 11.

    Sm*t Cl*de

    October 7, 2016 at 6:18 am

    “I was bitten by a radioactive wombat. Ask me about my superpowers and how I fight crime!”

  12. 12.

    scav

    October 7, 2016 at 6:29 am

    @Luthe:

    Wombats also produce cube-shaped poop

    Next step in evolution will be caltrop shaped poop which they will lay in a trail behind them so slow down pursuing dingos, or forcibly expel in the face of extremely persistent ones.

  13. 13.

    Immanentize

    October 7, 2016 at 6:32 am

    Hello, All. Friday, at least. I will be off to see
    My aging Mom tomorrow who is still living in (now by herself) the four bedroom five level split level house I grew up in. It will be her 86th birthday. She says she is now just about ready to downsize. I hope I have half her grit and independence at that age.
    Bonus — fresh apple cider from a press near where she lives

  14. 14.

    raven

    October 7, 2016 at 6:33 am

    @Immanentize: Happy trails.

  15. 15.

    Villago Delenda Est

    October 7, 2016 at 6:33 am

    Ahem, nerd pedant time.

    “Ser Diermahl Shielde”

  16. 16.

    Chet

    October 7, 2016 at 6:36 am

    Took the day off, so I can get my car registration replaced. It’s paid for, but I must have tossed the card when they mailed it to me. The only way to replace it is to go to the DMV and fill out a form, and pay $5. License renewals usually involve a two-hour wait, though, so I am not looking forward to it.

  17. 17.

    Immanentize

    October 7, 2016 at 6:36 am

    @Sm*t Cl*de: I was wondering how you were able to dig that well so quickly….

  18. 18.

    trnc

    October 7, 2016 at 6:40 am

    Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha …
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/daughter-of-trump-surrogate-rudy-giuliani-backing-clinton/2016/10/07/a4187396-8c74-11e6-8cdc-4fbb1973b506_story.html

  19. 19.

    Keith P.

    October 7, 2016 at 6:43 am

    Been up since 2am checking for my first paycheck showing up in my account (it hasn’t). Out of work for 2 months post-hospitalization (2nd month was pure delays starting the job), so I am all out of IOUs and lateness on bills. Needless to say, not seeing a paycheck in my account amped my stress levels up to no end. Constantly having to count on other people to adhere to a schedule is one of those triggers that lead me wanting to cut off what remaining interaction I have left with the outside world. Inevitably, they fail, and inevitably, I’m the one who has to take the shit for it (this one is trying to keep the lights on and my car from being repo’ed…I get hella upset thinking about it because I was telling the agency weeks ago that I am stretched to my limit, but I still had another 3 weeks of delays on starting work, now I’m getting delayed on getting paid for it)

  20. 20.

    SFAW

    October 7, 2016 at 6:43 am

    Speaking of wombat asses: just perused a “news” article in the formerly-liberal Boston Globe, discussing Michelle Obama’s campaigning, and calling her mic-tap appearance “strident.” The “reporter” lamented how Michelle’s campaigning is unprecedented, how Lady Bird (insert obligatory “Fuck LBJ!”) was not a campaigner, how Laura Bush only did joint appearances with Cindy McCain, etc.

    Interesting choice of the word “strident.” I guess the “reporter” decided “shrill” belongs only to Krugman. And, maybe I missed it (because the article seemed to be more-of-the-same bullshit), but I didn’t see a whole lot about how often Mrs. Obama has been attacked during this Presidency.

    Fuck the Globe, fucking Herald lite

  21. 21.

    Beautifulplumage

    October 7, 2016 at 6:45 am

    Honey Badger + Wombat = ???????

  22. 22.

    workworkwork

    October 7, 2016 at 6:46 am

    Having trouble sleeping.

    Looks like I’ll be getting a splenectomy later today. (short version: immune system problems, no platelets, no clotting, potential cerebral hemorrhage)

    Originally they were going to wait a few days for observation but yesterday I spoke with the surgeon and hematologist and they decided to move the timetable up pretty dramatically. I’m not sure if this indicates they feel I’m at such risk that they felt doing it sooner was a better choice. Maybe they just need the bed.

    Also on my mind: my oldest brother called me from the road last night and instead of offering me his support, he started an argument with me. A really stupid one, too. He asked me a medical question about my condition, I did a search to find an authoritative answer and he argued with the answer. As an educator, this is one of my hot buttons so I went off on him. (I can’t do this with students.)

    He hung up on me.

    So I’ve been awake for a while replaying the conversation in my head in different ways and decided to get up, send him an email about it (no f-bombs) telling him that if he wants to engage me as a brother, he’s more than welcome. But if he’s going to act like some random stranger sitting next to me at a Kodiak bar, then I’d appreciate it if he’d wait until after I get through the surgery. I reminded him that even though I’m almost sixty, I’m still his little brother and I deserve that much consideration.

    Sorry to dump this on all of you, but sometimes I have to get the thoughts out of my head so I can get back to sleep and writing is my main way of doing that.

  23. 23.

    Villago Delenda Est

    October 7, 2016 at 6:48 am

    @SFAW: Well, blah, you know.

  24. 24.

    JPL

    October 7, 2016 at 6:51 am

    For those without cable, weather.com is streaming the weather channel online. The good news so far is that the eye is staying further off the coast, but the storm is still dangerous.

  25. 25.

    Immanentize

    October 7, 2016 at 6:53 am

    @Beautifulplumage: a hard-ass, ball buster? Like my last boss?

  26. 26.

    OzarkHillbilly

    October 7, 2016 at 7:02 am

    @Debbie(aussie): You left out the snakes, the poisonous snakes.

    @Cermet: It did weaken from a IV to a III, did it not? How exactly are they supposed to say it?

  27. 27.

    kindness

    October 7, 2016 at 7:02 am

    Is Chris Cristie playing Sir Buttsalot?

  28. 28.

    Matt McIrvin

    October 7, 2016 at 7:04 am

    @JPL: It’s great news, but it’s also going to play into all the Drudgian conspiracy-mongering.

    People are playing such foolish, dangerous games when they erode people’s trust in storm predictions with conspiracy theories. There’s always uncertainty, and forecasters have a responsibility to warn people of the reasonable worst case. But now everyone who listens to Limbaugh is going to be that much more reluctant to evacuate for the next storm.

  29. 29.

    SFAW

    October 7, 2016 at 7:05 am

    @Keith P.:

    Well THAT sucks. I hope it arrives in your account today. Being made to wait to get paid sucks.

    Good luck!

  30. 30.

    Beautifulplumage

    October 7, 2016 at 7:08 am

    Imannentize: Bite my ass, I don’t give a fuck?

    Baud…..2020 slogan?

    (and safety + minimal damage to all dealing with hurr Matthew )

  31. 31.

    SFAW

    October 7, 2016 at 7:10 am

    @Villago Delenda Est:

    Yeah, but still, it’s the fucking Globe. John Henry has (I’m guessing) a moderate amount of love for bringing World Series rings back to Boston, but his (and Michael Sheehan’s) destruction of the Globe has been upsetting (to me, at least). I wish the ghost of Kay Graham would come to him, Marley-esque.

    PS: Michael Sheehan is the Globe CEO

  32. 32.

    Villago Delenda Est

    October 7, 2016 at 7:18 am

    @Matt McIrvin: Just think of it as Darwin in action.

  33. 33.

    debbie

    October 7, 2016 at 7:19 am

    @Keith P.:

    Never mind.

  34. 34.

    Baud

    October 7, 2016 at 7:20 am

    Saw my first Trump ad on MSNBC. It was sad. Like an ad you’d see for a Congressional seat.

  35. 35.

    debbie

    October 7, 2016 at 7:21 am

    @Villago Delenda Est:

    More woman than blah, I think.

  36. 36.

    Keith P.

    October 7, 2016 at 7:21 am

    @SFAW: I just now got word that it’s being sent to me (would have been REAL nice to have known that ahead of time so I could, uh, PLAN FOR IT!). It’s supposed to arrive today, but given it’s a paper check, there’s very strong odds that Bank of America will put a 2 week hold on the check (been a recurring problem with them and paper checks…they randomly do that) This means that I have to take even more time out of my day to go deal with *that*…drive to the bank, wait in line, explain that I can’t afford any holds on the deposit, get runaround, speak to a manager, etc. So very, very sick of living in society. I tell people I am at the end of my rope, and they still push…I try to avoid having to deal with people, then I get forced into having to do it, and it ends up being a shitshow. I don’t exaggerate when I tell people that I’m not really all that broken up about being near the end of my life, as it’s not really particularly enjoyable. Basically a bunch of this shit almost every week, for years on end.

  37. 37.

    debbie

    October 7, 2016 at 7:22 am

    @Baud:

    Tough to do when your writing abilities only extend to 140 characters.

  38. 38.

    Hal

    October 7, 2016 at 7:28 am

    @Keith P.: can you take the check to the bank listed on it, cash it, and then deposit the money at bofa? I did that years ago when I had a boban account with a check from Wells Fargo.

  39. 39.

    Cermet

    October 7, 2016 at 7:30 am

    @Keith P.: Really sorry to hear; hope the AO’s get their act together and pay you!

  40. 40.

    Iowa Old Lady

    October 7, 2016 at 7:30 am

    @Keith P.: Oh man. First of all, a paper pay check? I haven’t seen one of those in decades. I hope the bank surprises you by being cooperative. Hang in there. Enjoy some small pleasure.

  41. 41.

    OzarkHillbilly

    October 7, 2016 at 7:31 am

    @Keith P.:

    there’s very strong odds that Bank of America will put a 2 week hold on the check

    You need a new bank. I recently deposited a $3K check. They put a 3 day hold on it, and then released it 24 hrs later.

    This is a small town bank w/o all the Wall Street shysters figuring a way to make a few extra cents on a dollar they hold for 2 weeks. Probably the difference.

  42. 42.

    Villago Delenda Est

    October 7, 2016 at 7:32 am

    @debbie: You’re probably right.

    The mic tap thing was, IMHO, brilliant.

  43. 43.

    Keith P.

    October 7, 2016 at 7:36 am

    @Iowa Old Lady: Sadly, about the only thing I get pleasure from is being left in peace. But no matter how hard I try, I’ve always got somebody up my ass (I fucking HATE smartphones…it’s a hub for people to go up my ass. All day and night, it’s alert after alert from people wanting something from me) It’s amplified by being on dialysis, because not only am I now required to interact with people 3 times a week, it’s medical staff, who are a bunch of stubborn, passive-aggressive dickheads who all assume my #1 concern is dealing with them, and none of them coordinate, so it’s often a *line* of them one after another demanding my attention. Quite sick of it all. I just want to make it through the Twin Peaks revival and the end of Game of Thrones….after that there’s nothing left that the world has to offer me.

  44. 44.

    Cermet

    October 7, 2016 at 7:37 am

    @OzarkHillbilly: They need not report the storm becoming Cat III in a manner that creates an impression that it is weak; this is obvious even to some of the news sights since they often add that it is still dangerous. Some radio news is really bad with leads of “It has weaken to a Cat III” and no mention of how really powerful such a storm is. For instance: “Mathew is now a Cat. III hurricane”; rather than “Mathew has weaken to a Cat III.” Or “Mathew, now a Cat III storm, with wind gusts of 160 mph …” Not to difficult to be both clear and precise.

  45. 45.

    Betty Cracker

    October 7, 2016 at 7:39 am

    @Matt McIrvin:

    But now everyone who listens to Limbaugh is going to be that much more reluctant to evacuate for the next storm.

    Oh well! Circle of life, etc.

  46. 46.

    Cermet

    October 7, 2016 at 7:41 am

    @Keith P.: Not that it matters at all this instance, but you are being paid and don’t have to wonder how you will start to pay your bills. It is looking up! Remember that, at least. Again, sorry for the terrible hassle you are having.

  47. 47.

    raven

    October 7, 2016 at 7:41 am

    @OzarkHillbilly: Hey! How’s it hangin?

    We’re having a screen door made by a guy who looks to be a very good carpenter. I don’t know why but or builder made the space for the screen door 3/4 so we are suck with that for the door thickness, He found some recycled heart pine and is going to use that. He’s got it paled and cut and it looks great. We were going to paint it but it seems a shame to paint that beautiful wood so we want to use oil on it. He recommends WaterLox for the job and I just wondered what you thought?

  48. 48.

    Chris T.

    October 7, 2016 at 7:41 am

    In Oz-stralia, even the trees will try to kill you!

    Obligatory SWLG video

  49. 49.

    JPL

    October 7, 2016 at 7:42 am

    @Keith P.: I’m sorry. Maybe the bank will surprise you.

  50. 50.

    Cermet

    October 7, 2016 at 7:45 am

    @Keith P.: Consider depression meds; they can help a lot. Also, look into alternate therapies for dialysis – some can reduce the need for that a great deal – look up charcoal therapies. Of course, consult with your MD before trying such things.

  51. 51.

    debbie

    October 7, 2016 at 7:47 am

    @Keith P.:

    Back when I was freelancing and was paid with paper checks, the bank would make a portion of each check available immediately. BOA doesn’t do anything like that?

  52. 52.

    Kay

    October 7, 2016 at 7:49 am

    @debbie:

    I hope she pulls a little further ahead in Ohio. It isn’t necessary for her to win the state but if it’s as close as it looks right now (PPP has her at 2 points up) we could get into contested territory. Imagine the shitshow of all of cable screeching about voter fraud and weeks of misinformation and moronic reporting coming from people who don’t know election process and law. These are the people who regularly report that “dead people are voting” when they find deceased people on voter rolls, and they will ALWAYS find deceased people on voter rolls.

    They still haven’t mastered the difference between “registered” and “voting”.

  53. 53.

    Baud

    October 7, 2016 at 7:52 am

    @Kay: I can’t believe the dead don’t have the courtesy to change their voter registration information.

  54. 54.

    Keith P.

    October 7, 2016 at 7:52 am

    @Cermet: I know you are trying to help, but seriously (and I unfortunately have had this conversation too many times), alternative medicine for something like ESRD* is not just foolish, but deadly. 1 week without it, and I am swollen and nauseous (I’ve only dared going 5 days without it). 2 weeks, and I am dead. No charcoal is going to fix that. To your credit, you didn’t suggest watermelon juice, which a friend of mine has…repeatedly. Why? Because he saw some show on TV that said cooking food is killing us by destroying essential enzymes. The problem is that a) watermelon juice is fluid, which I *must* avoid, and b) it’s loaded with potassium, which can cause sudden cardiac arrest. Given how many times I’ve been in the hospital with heart failure, I don’t even want to be polite about saying “no thanks” any more because I’m literally getting deadly advice over and over again (from the same people)

    * End-Stage Renal Disease, meaning my kidneys are DONE. No lemon juice, aromatheraphy, charcoal, enemas, or whatever is going to change that. There are two destinations – kidney transplant (most of my friends stopped being friends once I needed a transplant) and death.

  55. 55.

    workworkwork

    October 7, 2016 at 7:52 am

    I think FYWP ate my first comment in this thread.

    Didn’t use any bad words or bare links, I think.
    Can one of the mods check this?
    They’re planning the splenectomy for today. I couldn’t sleep and decided to vent here.

  56. 56.

    OzarkHillbilly

    October 7, 2016 at 7:53 am

    @raven:

    He recommends WaterLox for the job and I just wondered what you thought?

    It’s as good as anything else out there.

  57. 57.

    Cermet

    October 7, 2016 at 7:53 am

    @Kay: @Kay: Anything that suck’s oxygen from the tRump coffers is very positive. Rather than being in Florida (they are suffering enough, one would think?) the tRump will have to spend time in Ohio …which might be justice for both parties … .

  58. 58.

    Punchy

    October 7, 2016 at 7:53 am

    I once dated a chick with an ass like that.

  59. 59.

    raven

    October 7, 2016 at 7:55 am

    @OzarkHillbilly: K den.

  60. 60.

    debbie

    October 7, 2016 at 7:56 am

    @Kay:

    Don’t listen to NPR this morning if you want to keep your hopes alive. They’ve been interviewing people in and around Cincinnati. I’m beginning to hate Buckeyes.

  61. 61.

    WereBear

    October 7, 2016 at 8:00 am

    @Keith P.: That is a massive load of stupidity and inefficiency. Illness in the USA: dealing with even higher levels of such crap: while sick!

  62. 62.

    Baud

    October 7, 2016 at 8:00 am

    @debbie: The media had been promoting anti-Hillary people and silencing Hillary supporters. It’s a known thing.

  63. 63.

    satby

    October 7, 2016 at 8:01 am

    @Keith P.: Been there, but without the health issues. Hang in there, and let us know if it never shows up. Take care of you, try to let this other stuff roll off.

  64. 64.

    rikyrah

    October 7, 2016 at 8:01 am

    @Kay:
    Family members need to contact the voting jurisdiction when a family member dies. Election authorities have enough to worry about.

  65. 65.

    Cermet

    October 7, 2016 at 8:02 am

    @Keith P.:Sorry but currently, charcoal is being used as the therapy for people over 80 who do not want to use dialysis; that said, I never suggested they not use dialysis nor, in any manner not follow know medical therapies not under their MD’s approval. For instance, diet restrictions are also an alternate therapy as well that MD’s suggest for many issues, including kidney failure. What makes you think that alternate means not currently used by the medical profession? You are jumping the gun, there cowboy. I never suggest alternate MEDICINE! Only alternate therapies – for instance, some times stains are dangerous for a given person so using an alternate therapy is required; like a drug that uses a different method – Bile elimination, for instance. Mellon juice? Really? LOL

    Aside: I do NOT support alt medicine; only scientifically proven therapies.

  66. 66.

    donnah

    October 7, 2016 at 8:02 am

    Hillary’s TV ads are great. Her team has taken footage and audio of Trump’s actual words and shown them in all their hateful glory. The “ugly” girl commercial and the Trump finger on the red button are perfect ways to show him at his worst and weakest. And he can’t dispute what he said.

    Trump’s ads are just starting here. The NRA-sponsored ones with the woman whose house is broken into and the one with the woman who faced off with a mugger are pure fear mongering. His other ad is about tax breaks, which ought to have a tag line about how much it will increase the national debt.

    Another month of this horrible clown show. ugh.

  67. 67.

    Keith P.

    October 7, 2016 at 8:02 am

    @debbie: They make $100 available, which doesn’t help me since I’ve got a -$450 balance (I had multiple autodeductions go through all on 1 day, then BofA hit me with a blanket $35 overdraft fee plus $35 for each transaction plus another $35 for the negative balance lasting for over a week.) They’ve actually hit me with that extended penalty before even after I deposited a paycheck because they kept a hold on a check as I kept eating auto-withdrawls (they’re not supposed to do that). I had to raise serious hell to get them to return my money, which ticks me off because it’s a headache I just don’t need.

  68. 68.

    Central Planning

    October 7, 2016 at 8:03 am

    @Keith P.: awkward sentence but: try going to a branch of the bank where the check was drawn. Cash it, since the account should have the cash in it.

  69. 69.

    OzarkHillbilly

    October 7, 2016 at 8:03 am

    @Keith P.: I got nothin’, except wish it weren’t so.

  70. 70.

    Kay

    October 7, 2016 at 8:05 am

    @debbie:

    Oh, I have more than “hope alive”. She won’t win by more than three but I think she’ll win. Her campaign people are doggedly (if warily) optimistic.

    Ohio is always a couple of points. They’re judging her using a bullshit margin. They’ve decided she should be 10 points up.

  71. 71.

    satby

    October 7, 2016 at 8:06 am

    @workworkwork: What happened? I thought you were heading home for outpatient care?

  72. 72.

    Face

    October 7, 2016 at 8:07 am

    @Kay: None of this will matter when the Russians hack the systems of all the swing states and give Trump resounding 88% to 11% wins. And no, that wont look suspicious at all.

  73. 73.

    SFAW

    October 7, 2016 at 8:08 am

    @Keith P.:
    I thought Federal law changed so that it can only be a three-day-hold maximum? (I’m assuming you weren’t just exaggerating for effect with the two-week hold comment.) Of course, BofA being a bank for which the phrase “dickheads” was coined, they’d probably make it three full business days (i.e., you show up at 9:32 AM on a Monday, but their “day” starts at 8:00 AM, so the three-day-count starts on Tuesday, and they drag it out to 5 PM on Thursday, etc, etc.

    The above is all speculation; I might be completely fucking wrong about everything (except Bank of America being dickheads). But you might consider calling another bank, and asking them about the 3-day-hold thing, whether it’s law, or merely “common practice.”

    Best of luck, I’ll keep you in my thoughts. (Not that doing so will do you any good.)

  74. 74.

    Kay

    October 7, 2016 at 8:09 am

    @rikyrah:

    It works okay without that if people would stop freaking out and reporting misinformation. There’s a process for inactive voters. They get 2 years of inactivity and then a series of notices. It’s a due process protection and it protects everyone. We don’t want aggressive culling of voter rolls. There will be errors. Better to err on the side of the voter.

    It worked fine before there was a “voter fraud!” grift on the Right. They discovered dead people weren’t removed for 2 years and they blew it up into “scandal!”

  75. 75.

    JPL

    October 7, 2016 at 8:09 am

    In today’s news, why did the chicken cross the road.. link

  76. 76.

    Cermet

    October 7, 2016 at 8:09 am

    @Keith P.: Forgot to add: I am extremely sorry for your condition; I too, have major organ failure (solely due to stains; turns out liver tests can be worthless) and understand how difficult these issues can be. I have no alternative except living on the edge waiting for the final push – you are lucky that there is something you can do to alleviate your organ failure.

  77. 77.

    OzarkHillbilly

    October 7, 2016 at 8:10 am

    @raven: Oh, and make sure you finish ALL 6 SIDES, including top and bottom. Otherwise it will close just fine in the winter and not at all in your humid summers. (can’t count the # of times I’ve told people that only to be called back to trim a door they never finished the bottom of)

  78. 78.

    Eunicecycle

    October 7, 2016 at 8:10 am

    @debbie: I know, as a fellow Buckeye, if Trump wins Ohio I want to leave because I can’t stand the thought of living with so many nutcases. On the other hand, I do know Republicans who are voting for Hillary (anecdotes not data, I know!). Do you notice the media seems to seek out Trump supporters? I hardly ever hear anyone interview a Hillary supporter. I think it’s because Trump supporters are more likely to say something, shall we say, noteworthy.

  79. 79.

    TheMightyTrowel

    October 7, 2016 at 8:10 am

    Don’t be fooled by their cute faces. Wombats are deadly killing machines.

  80. 80.

    raven

    October 7, 2016 at 8:12 am

    @OzarkHillbilly: Thanks, we’re paying a premium for this door so I’ve got no problem making sure he does so.

  81. 81.

    MomSense

    October 7, 2016 at 8:13 am

    @Keith P.:

    Damn, Keith P I’m sorry. It seems like direct deposit shouldn’t be this difficult to set up.

  82. 82.

    SFAW

    October 7, 2016 at 8:13 am

    @Face:

    None of this will matter when the Russians hack the systems of all the swing states and give Trump resounding 88% to 11% wins. And no, that wont look suspicious at all.

    Sam Bee’s kids interviewed some Trumpidiots regarding the election being “rigged.” Well, you coulda knocked me over with a feather when they each said that if Hillary wins, the election was rigged, but if Trump wins, it wasn’t.

    The lack of self-awareness and intelligence would be stunning, had it not been obvious for so long.

  83. 83.

    Betty Cracker

    October 7, 2016 at 8:13 am

    @donnah: The only Trump ad I’ve seen so far is one that shows him bellowing dumb platitudes at a rally. Not very effective. There are some PAC-funded anti-Hillary ads showing her in sinister lighting and alleging many misdeeds.

  84. 84.

    PIGL

    October 7, 2016 at 8:15 am

    @Chris T.: it’s like Middle Earth, that way.

  85. 85.

    Kay

    October 7, 2016 at 8:16 am

    @Face:

    They won’t be able to do it in my county because we have a paper ballot with a scanner. The paper ballot is there for an audit.

    There will be immediate questions if precincts and counties skew wildly from past elections because they’re not that volatile. In my county we are fighting over 1000 swing votes. That’s it. It can be 8000 for the D or it can be 7000 for the D. It just doesn’t work like that, where a weird result would go unnoticed.

    Campaigns have swing states down to a science. They know what they are looking for in each of Ohio’s 88 counties-the same is true in Florida.

    They COULD hack it if there isn’t paper or a digital trail for an audit AND they kept it close AND they didn’t do anything dumb like 80/20.

  86. 86.

    TheMightyTrowel

    October 7, 2016 at 8:16 am

    @OzarkHillbilly: previous owners of my flat in Britain did that. They also double glazed without ventilating properly. My first winter in that flat Mr Trowel and i had to strip plaster off a wall so affected by damp it was growing mold; drill holes in a bunch of the exterior walls and hang a new door after the unfinished one got so damp inside it rotted from the inside out.

    Protip: never install a new door and frame in mid winter. Brrrrr!

  87. 87.

    MomSense

    October 7, 2016 at 8:17 am

    @workworkwork:

    Wait, what?? Here we all were happily thinking you were going home. Really, sorry triple W.

  88. 88.

    OzarkHillbilly

    October 7, 2016 at 8:18 am

    @workworkwork: Better vent it while you still can. ;-) (sorry for the gallows humor but I could not resist)

  89. 89.

    Gin & Tonic

    October 7, 2016 at 8:24 am

    @workworkwork: You may not be in the best position for this now, but did you get a second opinion on the splenectomy? My son recovered well from his ITP without a splenectomy.

  90. 90.

    Kay

    October 7, 2016 at 8:25 am

    @Face:

    I personally think they should always retain a paper voter record. Trust in the process is important. If people want that for reassurance they should get it. Trust is undervalued, IMO.

    I see it in courts. We have big class divisions where I live. Lower income people are often convinced that fancy people, people in power, are rigging things against them. It affects everything from the high school basketball team to the court. I understand this and sympathize with it. If I can explain to them that their petition was denied (or whatever!) because there are a set of rules that apply to everyone they are reassured. It ISN’T arbitrary. The reason they didn’t get a grace period on property tax is BECAUSE of something- they missed the 15 days, they didn’t file something. They ALL think it’s bias and most of the time it’s not. They have very little trust.

  91. 91.

    OzarkHillbilly

    October 7, 2016 at 8:26 am

    @Betty Cracker: If Hillary shaved her head she’d look just like Lex Luthor.

  92. 92.

    satby

    October 7, 2016 at 8:29 am

    @Cermet: Sorry to hear that as well Cermet. No option for transplant for you?

  93. 93.

    MazeDancer

    October 7, 2016 at 8:33 am

    @Keith P.:

    Take the check to the issuing bank. As others have said, they will give you the cash. That is what a check is. Promise the issuing bank will give you money from the signer’s account. You show ID, they give you money.

    So sorry you have so much swirl of difficulty around you. May a ray of light shine through.

  94. 94.

    OzarkHillbilly

    October 7, 2016 at 8:33 am

    @Kay:

    Trust is undervalued, IMO.

    Not by Republicans. That’s why they undermine it every chance they get: “Taxes are theft!” “The govt is going to steal your guns!” “Planned Parenthood kills babies!” “Voter fraud!”

  95. 95.

    Face

    October 7, 2016 at 8:36 am

    @Kay: True, but Russians dont know elections that go anything but 90-10. So thats what they’ll go with.

  96. 96.

    MomSense

    October 7, 2016 at 8:36 am

    I love Samantha Bee. Her take down of LePage and warning about der Trump is wicked good.

    Maine

  97. 97.

    nonynony

    October 7, 2016 at 8:38 am

    @Kay:

    They ALL think it’s bias and most of the time it’s not. They have very little trust.

    I can’t blame them because it actually is bias, just not in the way they think. The rich guys can afford to pay people to remember things for them and experts to figure out what the procedures are for them. The not-so-rich-but-still-okay among us can afford to do that every once in a while when it’s really important (like hiring an accountant to do tax returns for you – or even paying for Turbotax for that matter).

    If you’ve got little to no money you can’t do that.

  98. 98.

    Kay

    October 7, 2016 at 8:39 am

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    It amazes me when people piss it away because it’s so hard to earn! It’s like money in the bank, it really is and none of CURRENT people earned it. They’re gleefully pissing away something of value someone else earned and gave them.

    It isn’t a given that The Supreme Court has institutional credibility. There are plenty of places where courts are discredited. That was HANDED to them. It’s a godammned gift. Treat it like one.

    I shudder when I see it, because people with no power are waiting for this- they started with the assumption things were rigged against them. Don’t feed into it! Don’t have every fancy person in town kids play in the basketball game and the other kids sit on the bench because they are looking for this! They recognize it immediately.

  99. 99.

    Oldgold

    October 7, 2016 at 8:40 am

    At Kos there is a remarkable diary concerning Trump’s involvement in the modeling ‘industry.’ It is long, but very much worth taking your time to read. Probably the best diary i have ever read st Kos. Shocking stuff.

    http://m.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/06/1578544/-The-Untold-Story-of-Trump-Model-Management-A-Daily-Kos-Exclusive-Part-1

  100. 100.

    Kay

    October 7, 2016 at 8:43 am

    @nonynony:

    Oh, there’s bias. It’s just not every time or even most of the time. It’s enough to make the grain of truth and that’s all they need. I don’t blame them but it honestly gets in their way a lot. You need SOME trust to operate in any system. It can’t be missing or you won’t try.

  101. 101.

    OzarkHillbilly

    October 7, 2016 at 8:49 am

    @Kay: The only Hillary signs I’ve seen around here is “A vote for Hillary is a vote for the end of Democracy”. It’s the only coin they have and they spend it on everything.

  102. 102.

    Bruce K

    October 7, 2016 at 8:52 am

    If you find anything about wombats interesting, I can recommend the webcomic/graphic novel Digger, by Ursula Vernon, winner of the 2012 Hugo Award for Best Graphic Story.

    Even if you don’t find anything about wombats interesting, my recommendation stands. Oh, and it extends to all of her writing, including stuff written under her occasional pen name of T. Kingfisher.

  103. 103.

    Phylllis

    October 7, 2016 at 8:58 am

    @workworkwork: Saw what you did there. Throwing out good vibes to the universe for you. And Keith P. as well.

  104. 104.

    Jeffro

    October 7, 2016 at 8:59 am

    Gawd that’s an awesome ad…I may have to drop one more donation in her bucket just for being that amazing…

    Bonus: if you re-watch it and picture Trump trying to say the exact same words, sincerely, you’ll bust out laughing and scare your co-workers. BELIEVE ME.

  105. 105.

    eyelessgame

    October 7, 2016 at 9:04 am

    I find it hilarious that the Washington Post would write an article about a form of Australian wildlife and include the word “fannies”. “Fanny”, which we Americans use as a breezy synonym for gluteus maximus, is in Australia a rude and offensive slang synonym for female genitalia (that is, it is the Aussie equivalent of the C-word.)

  106. 106.

    eric

    October 7, 2016 at 9:09 am

    @eyelessgame: it’s all English, mate. not as if you need cultural fact checkers. just ask Reebok on its “Incubus” running shoe in Japan.

  107. 107.

    Kay

    October 7, 2016 at 9:14 am

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    I try not to be mad all the time but I admit the “lock her up” signs get to me.

    Fuck off with locking people up, you fascists.

  108. 108.

    WaterGirl

    October 7, 2016 at 9:16 am

    @Keith P.: You are probably long gone for today, but I believe that they NEVER put a hold on a payroll check. So you may be just fine!

  109. 109.

    WaterGirl

    October 7, 2016 at 9:17 am

    @Iowa Old Lady: A paper check is quite common for the first check at a new job – they often don’t have the ACH payments set up yet and they want you to get your money.

  110. 110.

    The Golux

    October 7, 2016 at 9:19 am

    @Luthe:

    Wombats also produce cube-shaped poop.

    And, per Wikipedia, a group of wombats is called a wisdom.

  111. 111.

    OzarkHillbilly

    October 7, 2016 at 9:21 am

    @Kay: You and me both. If one’s answer to your political opponents is to throw them in jail, yes you are a fascist. Still trying to come up with the right words to piss off all the Trumpsters, but doing it in such a way that to react is to acknowledge their assholeness.

  112. 112.

    eric

    October 7, 2016 at 9:25 am

    @OzarkHillbilly: i think it is more nuanced than that, because if Dick Cheney were to run for something now, i think the near universal chorus among the Left is that he should be in jail. It is not the “lock her up” that is offensive, but the emotional and factless drivers behind the sentiment.

  113. 113.

    WaterGirl

    October 7, 2016 at 9:27 am

    @raven: hey raven. I had my screen doors made for the new porch this summer, and I love love love the product he used. The doors were made out of douglas fir and they are a gorgeous color, and I couldn’t be happier with the result.

    It was called General Finishes Exterior 450. He used FLAT, but he has used their SATIN product on some interior surfaces and he said that’s nice, too, if you want more sheen.

  114. 114.

    hovercraft

    October 7, 2016 at 9:32 am

    @SFAW:
    WTF.
    Is she overstepping her bounds again? What the hell is wrong with her, first she tells us to eat healthy and to get our kids to exercise, and then she says we need to waste time and money educating girls? Now to top it all off, she’s out there stumping for Hillary? What part of just smiling and saying I support my husband, does she not understand? This is what happens when you let them get uppity.

  115. 115.

    OzarkHillbilly

    October 7, 2016 at 9:35 am

    @WaterGirl: Obviously, you never worked for some of the people I worked for.

  116. 116.

    raven

    October 7, 2016 at 9:38 am

    @WaterGirl: Ah cool, here’s what it looks like.

  117. 117.

    OzarkHillbilly

    October 7, 2016 at 9:39 am

    @eric: point taken.

    ETA: the difference being Hillary as far as anyone can figure out is not guilty of anything more than a misdemeanor and Cheney is a self admitted war criminal.

  118. 118.

    workworkwork

    October 7, 2016 at 9:39 am

    @satby: Given that my platelets weren’t coming up, they could not let me walk out of here. At least not without signing a release that if I did that, bumped my head and died, it’s not their fault since they warned me.

  119. 119.

    raven

    October 7, 2016 at 9:39 am

    @WaterGirl: A bunch of my friends are there for the Red Lion Reunion this weekend. They say this is the last one.

  120. 120.

    workworkwork

    October 7, 2016 at 9:42 am

    @MomSense: Me, too. But when I wasn’t improving, we switched to thinking about how to get me out of here safely in as short a time as possible.
    Options:
    Another three weeks in hospital to see if the chemo works. If not, then splenectomy.
    Go ahead with the splenectomy then 3-4 days recovery in hospital, 4-6 weeks at home.

  121. 121.

    SFAW

    October 7, 2016 at 9:43 am

    @efgoldman:

    Except it isn’t, at least not on line.

    I know.
    My comment was in the vein of “You’re the fucking Globe! Have some self-respect!” Similar to how some of us feel about the NYT, and their Trump-fluffing — it’s the Times, goddammit! It’s not some rag like the Lowell Sun (disclaimer: how the Sun was 15 years ago, don’t know how it is now).

    I’ve done the digital-subscription thing for the Globe when they run a sale, but I find I don’t go there. Plus, the last time I actually did, it was a PITA to navigate.

    But it’s somewhat depressing to think that there’s no large liberal paper here any more.

    Thanks, Obama.

  122. 122.

    Punchy

    October 7, 2016 at 9:43 am

    The wombats I saw in Brisbane looked like ginormous guinea pigs. Didn’t pay much attention to their caboose, though.

  123. 123.

    workworkwork

    October 7, 2016 at 9:46 am

    @OzarkHillbilly: Thanks. My brother is the oldest and has always been a bit of a jerk.

    On the brighter side, my brother-in-law displays very little emotional empathy (Republican, but voting for Hillary) and he called to discuss any concerns I had about handling the finances for my care and that of my wife and offer his assistance and advice. So there’s that.

  124. 124.

    workworkwork

    October 7, 2016 at 9:47 am

    @Gin & Tonic: Details?
    They started with platelet infusion and immunoglobulin then moved to Rituxan. The counts aren’t budging so far.

  125. 125.

    workworkwork

    October 7, 2016 at 9:49 am

    @Phylllis: Thanks. Looks like we all could use some extra hugs.

    The puppy posts help.

  126. 126.

    SFAW

    October 7, 2016 at 9:51 am

    @hovercraft:

    On the plus side, they’re not (yet) asking her to sing “Swing Low, Sweet Chariot” or “De Camptown Races.” Nor are they asking her to emulate Lincoln Theodore Perry.

    I was also going to mention her being uppity, but you got that covered.

  127. 127.

    MomSense

    October 7, 2016 at 9:52 am

    @workworkwork:

    I can imagine your hematologist is not thrilled about surgery with your platelets in this state or have the numbers improved? Chemo may be safer but I don’t know how it may adversely affect the platelet problem. Did they discover the problem with the spleen after they were planning your discharge? Ok, forget answering my stupid questions unless you feel like venting.

    Ugh. I’m sorry you are dealing with all of this. I have a platelet disorder that creates all kinds of problems (not the same thing you have) so I do appreciate how frustrating it can be.

  128. 128.

    MattF

    October 7, 2016 at 9:52 am

    @The Golux: And, despite rumors to the contrary, a group of baboons is a ‘troop’, not a ‘congress’.

  129. 129.

    Major Major Major Major

    October 7, 2016 at 9:54 am

    @MattF: But a group of owls is a ‘parliament’!

    I think my favorite is probably “a confusion of weasels”.

  130. 130.

    MomSense

    October 7, 2016 at 9:55 am

    On a lighter note, I am no longer afraid of seeing another bear in the woods. I’m more worried about clowns!

  131. 131.

    a thousand flouncing lurkers (formerly fidelioscabinet)

    October 7, 2016 at 9:58 am

    @workworkwork:
    You know, even if all your brother’s BS was displacement, it was still dickish. And counterproductive, if he was trying to express concern, however incompetently. Because nothing says “You are my brother and I am both worried about you and freaked out by what’s happening,” like starting a fight.

    I hope surgery goes OK.

  132. 132.

    MomSense

    October 7, 2016 at 9:59 am

    @Cermet:

    Really sorry to hear about your condition.

  133. 133.

    OzarkHillbilly

    October 7, 2016 at 9:59 am

    @Major Major Major Major: A ‘murder of crows’ still wins hands down.

  134. 134.

    Barbara

    October 7, 2016 at 10:04 am

    @Keith P.: Keith, if you can contact me offline I will try to help you. It’s sad and infuriating that you are in this position. Not sure how to connect, and I hesitate to publish my “real” email, but if you use the one attached to the blog, or maybe go through one of the moderators, and tell me that you have emailed me — I will respond. Or maybe if you are not afraid of publishing yours, I can email you offline.

  135. 135.

    Tenar Darell

    October 7, 2016 at 10:05 am

    @Bruce K: She’s GOH at Arisia this upcoming year ?

  136. 136.

    Gin & Tonic

    October 7, 2016 at 10:05 am

    @MomSense: If, as I suspect, www has what my son had, the theory is that the spleen is eating the platelets. The problem with the splenectomy is that a) it’s invasive surgery at a time when your blood isn’t clotting; b) once you remove it, it’s gone for good; and c) it may not help anyway. We leaned heavily against the splenectomy, but my son was much younger than www, and the circumstances of his hospitalization were different. After about 10 days, after IG didn’t work they thought they saw slight progress with the rituximab (that’s what www is referring to as “chemo” if I’m not mistaken.) Once he got above 10,000 they were more inclined to let him out. That’s still dangerously low, but not critically low, and he lived only a couple of blocks from the hospital so it was almost-but-not-quite AMA.

  137. 137.

    Barbara

    October 7, 2016 at 10:05 am

    @OzarkHillbilly: Wow, so I now know the origin of the title of the Counting Crows song “Murder of One.”

  138. 138.

    Miss Bianca

    October 7, 2016 at 10:07 am

    @workworkwork: Ohh…sadness. Such familial stress on top of surgery! Wishing you well from the Central Mountains!

  139. 139.

    OzarkHillbilly

    October 7, 2016 at 10:07 am

    @MomSense: I don’t get the being afraid of clowns thing. I just don’t get it. 3 yr olds playing with Mom’s gun at Walmart? Sure, but outside of a Stephen King novel, when has a clown hurt some one?

  140. 140.

    Major Major Major Major

    October 7, 2016 at 10:10 am

    @OzarkHillbilly: It’s a little played out, don’t you think?

  141. 141.

    Matt McIrvin

    October 7, 2016 at 10:13 am

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    Not by Republicans. That’s why they undermine it every chance they get: “Taxes are theft!” “The govt is going to steal your guns!” “Planned Parenthood kills babies!” “Voter fraud!”

    They’re fine with trust, as long as it’s trust of the right people: police, soldiers (unless they turn out to be Democrats), their pastor, powerful white daddy figures in general. The institutions they mistrust are any that they see as working to upend the hierarchy they want in place.

  142. 142.

    Barbara

    October 7, 2016 at 10:13 am

    @workworkwork: This is far afield. Where I grew up we have a lot of old brick roads with ruts that cars have worn in them over time. Some are so deep you don’t even need to use the steering wheel — the car just goes where the ruts do. It was a favorite trick of my older sister to demonstrate that was the case when she got her driver’s license and she was allowed to take the car by herself. That’s what family dynamics often become — so well-worn they just happen automatically, and it takes enormous effort and, usually, separation, to break the pattern. Good luck with your treatment. You can live without a spleen, I know people who have done it.

  143. 143.

    Denali

    October 7, 2016 at 10:14 am

    @Keith P,

    I am sorry. Hope today is better for you.

  144. 144.

    Matt McIrvin

    October 7, 2016 at 10:17 am

    @OzarkHillbilly: I get it. Traditional clown makeup was for the circus and was made to be seen from a long way away, which turns it into just a jolly cartoon face. See a clown close-up, either in person or on TV or something, and you see the real face underneath competing for attention with the makeup, and it just turns into an unsetting Uncanny Valley experience. Human but not-human. The clown becomes a disturbing liminal creature.

  145. 145.

    OzarkHillbilly

    October 7, 2016 at 10:18 am

    @Major Major Major Major: The classics never die.

  146. 146.

    Matt McIrvin

    October 7, 2016 at 10:21 am

    @OzarkHillbilly: …or, as Jack Handey once said: “To me, clowns aren’t funny. In fact, they’re kind of scary. I’ve wondered where this started, and I think to goes back to the time I went to the circus, and a clown killed my dad.”

  147. 147.

    MomSense

    October 7, 2016 at 10:22 am

    @Gin & Tonic:

    Ah, got it. Is your son better now?

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    People are either terrified of clowns or meh about them. Well I do live in Stephen King country so that could have something to do with it. I think this clown mess started with attempted abductions and maybe one of them pulled a knife on a kid?

  148. 148.

    OzarkHillbilly

    October 7, 2016 at 10:22 am

    @Matt McIrvin: I just see a person with a bunch of crap on their face, but I understand what you are saying.

  149. 149.

    Gin & Tonic

    October 7, 2016 at 10:31 am

    @MomSense:

    Is your son better now?

    Yes, thanks. This was a few years ago, so while it took several months for his counts to get back in the normal range, he is fully recovered (and still has all his original organs.)

    But, honestly, taking medical advice from random anonymous people on the Internet is probably not a good plan.

  150. 150.

    RaflW

    October 7, 2016 at 10:32 am

    It seems we don’t need to reserve our schadenfreude for the GOP. It seems the lead Brexiteers and party of racist Trumpster Nigel Farage are falling apart.

    A punch-up and a party plagued with problems: What the hell is happening to UKIP?
    By Europe correspondent James Glenday

    Brexit was meant to be the UK Independence Party’s crowning glory: the moment UKIP showed it was more than just another minor party.

    Instead, it has triggered another bout of brutal infighting that threatens to tear the organisation into tiny shreds.

    Why is UKIP in disarray?
    Well it doesn’t have a leader, after Diane James sensationally quit after 18 days in charge.

    Overnight, the favourite to take over, Steven Woolfe, was taken to hospital in a “serious condition” after a punch up with a colleague.

    Oh, and UKIP’s facing an existential crisis.

    It was set up to get Britain out of the EU. That mission was partly accomplished by on again, off again ruler Nigel Farage, who has again controversially reclaimed the title of interim leader.

    …

  151. 151.

    OzarkHillbilly

    October 7, 2016 at 10:33 am

    @MomSense: You’re from Maine? Well, that explains a lot. ;-)

    The first I heard of it was “Somebody called 911 and reported seeing a clown.” Everything, and I mean EVERYTHING, I have read since then has all been mildly disturbed bordering on full on meltdown. It’s all been the equivalent of “My buddy has a friend who’s cousin’s sister….” Now we have people threatening to shoot anyone who looks like a clown (why is Trump still alive?) to cops threatening to arrest anyone who dresses as a clown (when did wearing white make up and a red nose and an orange wig become against the law?).

    It is pure hysteria bordering on the ludicrous. Monty Python needs to make a movie about 2016.

  152. 152.

    peach flavored shampoo

    October 7, 2016 at 10:33 am

    TPM has a schizophrenic “poll tracker”. Just ~12 hours ago, HRC had a 5-6% lead in nat’n polls. Suddenly that’s down to 1.5%. Can this really be due to a VP debate? If so, why would HRC’s decline precipitously while Trump’s numbers also decline, but slightly? Wouldn’t a bump from a debate keep the “loser” about even while raising the “winner”s numbers?

    No, I’m not really worried, esp. when one looks at the state polls. But something seems extraordinarily unstable about Josh’s algorithms, unless somehow, indeed, HRC is tanking in many major polls simultaneously.

  153. 153.

    amk

    October 7, 2016 at 10:38 am

    @peach flavored shampoo:

    Drew Linzer (who got it perfect in 2012) via dkos. – From a low 62% to 86% today in just two weeks for hillz.

  154. 154.

    RaflW

    October 7, 2016 at 10:40 am

    Oh, also that HRC video was great. I like the semi-subtle digs at Trump with the skyscraper and bank account lines.

    Things like this do help me feel more like I’m voting for Hillary rather than just against Trump/the GOP. Which I’m sure is the goal. She’s gonna need the support of a lot of Dems when she is elected and the grinding maw of the GOP hate-machine + the media’s well known Clinton bitterness comes to force, in, say, about 12 seconds after the votes are in.

    So good for her and her team for doing some positive policy & biography work. CW is that you do that early, but it I think works now too, as part of the larger media mix with the hard-hitting attacks.

  155. 155.

    oldgold

    October 7, 2016 at 10:41 am

    @peach flavored shampoo:
    I like Josh and TPM, but the TPM Poll Tracker is as worthless as tits on a boar.

  156. 156.

    Major Major Major Major

    October 7, 2016 at 10:43 am

    @amk: Sam Wang was at 92% last I checked and I very much like his model, methodologically.

    @peach flavored shampoo: frankly that graph looks like it has to be a typo. HuffPo shows nothing.

  157. 157.

    WaterGirl

    October 7, 2016 at 10:46 am

    @raven: nice!

  158. 158.

    Matt McIrvin

    October 7, 2016 at 10:48 am

    @peach flavored shampoo: Looks like about four polls with historically Republican leans happened to drop around the same time. Rasmussen, UPI/CVOTER, the LA Times one, and Morning Consult. Rasmussen and UPI were the only two I can find that showed Trump not just ahead but gaining after the first presidential debate.

  159. 159.

    WaterGirl

    October 7, 2016 at 10:48 am

    @raven: wow, 50 years! i had no idea it was this weekend.

  160. 160.

    Omnes Omnibus

    October 7, 2016 at 10:51 am

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    but outside of a Stephen King novel, when has a clown hurt some one?

    Three words: John Wayne Gacy.

  161. 161.

    hovercraft

    October 7, 2016 at 10:51 am

    @peach flavored shampoo:
    The 2 new polls they added today are very GOP friendly, Rassmussen and Morning Consult

    RCP Average 9/26 – 10/6 — — 48.1 43.8 Clinton +4.3

    Huffpo
    Clinton44.1%
    Trump38.7%
    Johnson8.0%
    Undecided6.0%
    Other3.3%

    538 has her at 79.3 and Trump at 20.7

    Princeton
    Snapshot (167 state polls): Clinton 323, Trump 215 EV Meta-margin: Clinton +3.3%
    RSS
    Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 88%, Bayesian 93%

  162. 162.

    Matt McIrvin

    October 7, 2016 at 10:52 am

    …I think the USC/LA Times one is one of the RAND-style polls that tracks a constant set of voters over time, so any systematic sampling problems with that group are permanently baked in. You’d expect it to track short-term changes well (apart from any distortions that come from these people not being a naive sample) but not the overall absolute state of the race.

  163. 163.

    hovercraft

    October 7, 2016 at 10:55 am

    @Matt McIrvin:
    You are correct, just an FYI, UPI/CVOTER, the LA Times, are3 not included in the average according to his chart. But yes TPM sucks at this.

  164. 164.

    Matt McIrvin

    October 7, 2016 at 10:55 am

    @OzarkHillbilly: There have been some real cases here and there, but they seem to be copycats inspired by the hysteria. Clown-fear is something that was slowly baking in pop culture for decades, but I think this one literally started with nothing, a pure kid rumor that blew up, got media coverage and then inspired actual crimes.

  165. 165.

    Major Major Major Major

    October 7, 2016 at 10:55 am

    @hovercraft: why would TPM show such a hockeystick graph though? Pollster/HuffPo has those included and it’s same as it was yesterday.

    ETA: at any rate, keep calm and read Sam wang, the stablest American presidential election since the advent of modern polling.

  166. 166.

    raven

    October 7, 2016 at 10:56 am

    @Matt McIrvin: They are going to have a ell of a time at the Athens Wild Rumpus

  167. 167.

    Matt McIrvin

    October 7, 2016 at 10:58 am

    @hovercraft: I see. I think that if you aggregate national polls, heavy smoothing is probably called for, because a lot of the short-term variation is just differences in the systematic biases of whichever firm dropped last.

  168. 168.

    germy

    October 7, 2016 at 10:59 am

    @Major Major Major Major:

    I think my favorite is probably “a confusion of weasels”.

    Why am I reminded of a republican congress?

  169. 169.

    Matt McIrvin

    October 7, 2016 at 11:00 am

    @hovercraft: …they don’t include Rasmussen but they do include Gravis/Breitbart, which is probably worse.

    Probably better to look at state aggregates, anyway.

  170. 170.

    liberal

    October 7, 2016 at 11:05 am

    @Cermet: “Stains”? You mean “statins”?

  171. 171.

    Major Major Major Major

    October 7, 2016 at 11:05 am

    @germy: how dare you! The weasel is a noble creature. Surely you wouldn’t say something like that about their close cousins the otters.

  172. 172.

    germy

    October 7, 2016 at 11:06 am

    Rudy Giuliani’s Daughter Is Voting for Hillary Clinton

  173. 173.

    germy

    October 7, 2016 at 11:06 am

    many associates of Giuliani’s have parted ways with him in this election: Some of his former staffers have endorsed Clinton, while others have declined to join him in supporting Trump and have expressed concern over his decision to endorse Trump’s extreme positions on issues like immigration and policing.

    ny magazine

  174. 174.

    Matt McIrvin

    October 7, 2016 at 11:07 am

    @Major Major Major Major: Different averaging protocols. They can make a lot of difference. Among other things, HuffPo tracks 2-way and 4-way averages separately. And even on that site, you can often get a radically different picture of the state of the race by making a custom graph with different smoothing procedures. Pick “less smoothing” on the 2-way and it drops to a one-point Clinton lead, I think entirely because of the Rasmussen.

  175. 175.

    germy

    October 7, 2016 at 11:08 am

    @Major Major Major Major: The weasel has gotten a bad reputation over the years because of comparisons to the republican congress. I apologize for adding to the confusion.

  176. 176.

    germy

    October 7, 2016 at 11:10 am

    People on Trump’s side are pointing to a magical, unreported voter who will vote for Trump but is too ashamed to admit it to pollsters.

    I’ve also seen the same point made here, that many republican women will quietly vote for HRC but are too afraid to admit it to pollsters or their wingnut husbands.

  177. 177.

    SFAW

    October 7, 2016 at 11:11 am

    @Major Major Major Major:
    Hell, even I am pretty calm about this, and we know what a worrier I have been. I’m semi-obsessive about checking updates from Nate and Sam (looking more for trending variations than anything else), and it’s all been pretty damn good since the debate. In a normal year, I would not have thought that a single debate would have had so much effect. But I expect people finally saw Trump for the nutcase that he is, and combined with his Machado-bashing, I imagine a lot of people were going “WTF?”

    Only thing left to worry about is making sure that turnout is high. Gotta make sure I contact Craig (?) McMahon.

  178. 178.

    SFAW

    October 7, 2016 at 11:13 am

    @germy:

    People on Trump’s side are pointing to a magical, unreported voter who will vote for Trump but is too ashamed to admit it to pollsters.

    Maybe they can get Dean Chambers to help them with that.

  179. 179.

    Major Major Major Major

    October 7, 2016 at 11:14 am

    @SFAW: there’s been little to panic about as the race hasn’t really changed since February. But then again I would say that, I’m part of the Cult of Wang.

  180. 180.

    Matt McIrvin

    October 7, 2016 at 11:14 am

    @germy: The problem with the shy-Trumpster hypothesis is that Trump’s primary polling didn’t particularly underrate his performance (people speak of his win as a surprise, but if you believed the polls instead of a bunch of pundits, it wasn’t at all). So now you have to posit some reason that the shy Trumpsters would come out for the general election but not for the primary. You can come up with such hypotheses–maybe they’re Trump Democrats or independents, maybe it’s a socioeconomic thing. But you do have to pile explanations on explanations.

    A lot of this is just reasoning by vague analogy from Brexit or the FARC vote in Colombia, which are real apples-and-oranges comparisons. It ultimately comes down to Romney-yard-sign sorts of arguments.

  181. 181.

    germy

    October 7, 2016 at 11:18 am

    @Matt McIrvin: That’s true. They weren’t shy during the primaries. I think it’s just wishful thinking that some of his supporters are embracing.

    He’s sewing the seeds for “it was rigged, she stole the election!” which I’m concerned may lead to violence. And it won’t be the pundits who are attacked.

  182. 182.

    Matt McIrvin

    October 7, 2016 at 11:19 am

    @germy: And fearful thinking from Democrats, because Democrats are really good at that.

  183. 183.

    germy

    October 7, 2016 at 11:20 am

    @SFAW: Dean Chambers. Is he the one who calls Obama “The Great Destroyer”?

  184. 184.

    catclub

    October 7, 2016 at 11:22 am

    @Baud: Yep. Find the lifelong union member who is voting for Trump.
    Find the educated suburban white woman who is voting for Trump.
    …
    Find the black guy who is voting for Clinton.

  185. 185.

    germy

    October 7, 2016 at 11:23 am

    @Matt McIrvin:

    @ And fearful thinking from Democrats, because Democrats are really good at that.

    Hillary pulled her ads from the Weather Channel because republicans found it unseemly. If it had been a republican running those ads, and democrats complained, the republicans would be all “Fuck yeah we’re running them! And fuck you!”

    Something about decent people running against assholes.

  186. 186.

    SFAW

    October 7, 2016 at 11:25 am

    @Major Major Major Major:

    Well, I disagree to some extent. Hillary’s trend from early August to early/mid-September was pretty bad, even at PEC. Back in August, her random and Bayesian numbers were in the low-to-mid-90s, I think. Then she (seemingly) took the rest of August off.

    Anyway, I’m glad things are where they are, and I hope she has another winner in the Town Hall — were that to happen, I would expect it would queue up another Deadbeat Donnie meltdown.

  187. 187.

    germy

    October 7, 2016 at 11:27 am

    @SFAW: Do you know anything about the townhall audience? I’m curious if the so-called undecideds are the same folks who troll progressive blogs by saying “I’m not a republican!” and then repeat every stupid wingnut talking point known to man.

    Will HRC be asked about Vince Foster, emails and whitewater?

  188. 188.

    Matt McIrvin

    October 7, 2016 at 11:28 am

    @SFAW:

    Then she (seemingly) took the rest of August off.

    Fundraising. We’re likely seeing the fruits of that now; it may have been unavoidable.

  189. 189.

    Major Major Major Major

    October 7, 2016 at 11:28 am

    @SFAW: there was one week where I told myself I’d start actually worrying if the PEC Bayesian got any lower, but it didn’t. She was just at the low end of a standard deviation at that point. It was after the Ipsos/Reuters super iffy batch of state polls got added in IIRC.

  190. 190.

    SFAW

    October 7, 2016 at 11:29 am

    @germy:

    Is he the one who calls Obama “The Great Destroyer”?

    Don’t recall that (not disagreeing, just don’t recall).

    Dean Chambers was the “Unskew the Polls” nutjob. He also, after Romney’s wipeout, started a website “Barack O’Fraudo” claiming quelle surprise) that Obama won due to voter fraud. He (thanks be to FSM!) seems to have disappeared from the public eye.

  191. 191.

    SFAW

    October 7, 2016 at 11:33 am

    @germy:
    No idea how the audience is selected.

    I don’t think she’ll be asked about Foster and Whitewater (I’m assuming you were joking), but I fully expect her to be asked about e-mails, servers, and Benghaziiiii!!! And, for bonus points, how she helped start up ISIS.

  192. 192.

    SFAW

    October 7, 2016 at 11:35 am

    @Matt McIrvin:

    Yeah, I got it re: fundraising. And part of it was the MSM doing their “let’s see how long we can pretend Hillary doesn’t exist” combined with Gore-ing her. But her (apparent) absence was still disconcerting, and certainly contributed to her drop in the polls.

  193. 193.

    germy

    October 7, 2016 at 11:38 am

    @SFAW: I don’t remember where I read it (maybe on balloon-juice) but someone said the debate is being held in a “red” district and that many audience members and question askers lean republican.

    I know HRC will do fine and I’m sure drumpf will do his usual performance. I noticed how Pence mocked Kaine during their debate for seeming too prepared: “Did you spend a long time practicing that one?” etc.

  194. 194.

    Major Major Major Major

    October 7, 2016 at 11:38 am

    @SFAW: I’ve learned that things go best if I just tune out most of August during presidential years TBH.

  195. 195.

    SFAW

    October 7, 2016 at 11:41 am

    @Major Major Major Major:

    I think it was more than one batch of polls, and I think it was more than one SD, but I think you and I are (now) generally on the same page.

  196. 196.

    hovercraft

    October 7, 2016 at 11:43 am

    @germy: As I said yesterday, when you’ve lost Joe of the morning and his merry band of sycophants, you’ve reached rock bottom. They all lament that the once”great, America’s Mayor” has lost his mind, and is now just like a lunatic who you would find roaming the streets of Manhattan. Even Fat Boy has not descended to the depths that Rudy has, he’s pathetic.

  197. 197.

    eric

    October 7, 2016 at 11:45 am

    The problem with the “shy trump voter hypothesis” is that trump voters are not shy by disposition. the “shy hillary voting woman hypothesis” has more merit because there are readily apparent reasons not to admit that information,

  198. 198.

    Matt McIrvin

    October 7, 2016 at 11:46 am

    @germy:

    I don’t remember where I read it (maybe on balloon-juice) but someone said the debate is being held in a “red” district and that many audience members and question askers lean republican.

    They’re undecided voters in Missouri. Anyone who is undecided in Missouri has got to be whiter than white, and right-leaning.

  199. 199.

    Major Major Major Major

    October 7, 2016 at 11:47 am

    @SFAW: she had been flagging in the polls already when the Reuters/Ipsos batch came out and really smacked her down in his model. Her slump was starting to fade at that time but they had been in the field during her worst period even though they were released later so it made it look longer than it was. He had a podcast about it.

    Could’ve been more than a SD though, thought it wasn’t, not going to look it up ?

  200. 200.

    Gelfling 545

    October 7, 2016 at 11:47 am

    @Matt McIrvin: Well, sad to say, if they’re that dumb they probably weren’t long for this world anyway.

  201. 201.

    SFAW

    October 7, 2016 at 11:49 am

    @germy:

    I noticed how Pence mocked Kaine during their debate for seeming too prepared: “Did you spend a long time practicing that one?” etc.

    “Not as much time as you spent trying to figure out different ways to pretend that Trump didn’t say what he actually said. And I guess I could have spent as much time on a ‘pretend I have a clue’ squint as you did — except I already know what I’m talking about. Unlike you.”

    I think it would have been good humor if Kaine had gone all Dozens on Pence’s ass, but with Trump being the target.

  202. 202.

    sigaba

    October 7, 2016 at 11:49 am

    @RaflW: UKIP made its name by being a bunch of racists who kept telling everyone “We aren’t racist! We just want independence from the EU!”

    Now that they have that, they have to decide on what they all agree on, and they can’t figure out how to be anti-immigrant without being racist. The EU issue gave them a lot of wiggle room and allowed them to defer a lot of conversations about ideology, it was a very simple platform. Now they have to be more generally anti-immigrant so they have to have all kinds of arguments about who’s a “real Briton” and who has more right to stay than who and UKIPpers have predictably disgusting beliefs about all these things– UKIP politicians have no compunction about telling you that people who have been in the U.K. for three generations have no right to be there, because they don’t “look” British.

    Of course most of the people that might cast a vote for UKIP aren’t this reactionary, so that’s the problem.

  203. 203.

    Matt McIrvin

    October 7, 2016 at 11:51 am

    @eric: My bet is it’s a wash, and the vote will actually track the aggregated state polling pretty closely, just as in every other recent presidential election.

    The Guardian went looking for shy Trumpsters a while back, and found them–but they were among Guardian readers, that is, Americans who would voluntarily read a left-wing British newspaper site. Probably not representative at all. They tended to be affluent Buster heighten-the-contradictions types who wanted to Trump to win to bring the revolution, or because it would be funny and Hillary was boring. I think they surveyed them again months later and found that some had changed their minds.

  204. 204.

    SFAW

    October 7, 2016 at 11:52 am

    @Major Major Major Major:

    Yeah, it’s not worth it, since we’re here now. Thank FSM.

  205. 205.

    hovercraft

    October 7, 2016 at 11:53 am

    @germy:
    Aha, you are referring to the “Shy Tory vote”, Hugh Hewitt has proclaimed that Trump has created a new class of voter with his unique brand of populism. These are the more than 5 million white voters wo stayed home and cost RMoney the 2012 election, well Trump has awakened this beast, and their numbers have swelled way beyond the 5 million. The media have forced them underground with their constant accusations of racism, sexism and xenophobia, but the are out there, and will rise up to shock us all November 8 th.
    The only problem is that if they did exist, Trump made no effort to register them so they could vote for him, actual “data” shows no new hordes of white registrations, and where there have been upticks, they are more than countered by new voters of color.
    There will indeed be a shock on election day, it will come when the RWNJ’s realize that they are well and truly outnumbered by the sane people in the country.

  206. 206.

    hovercraft

    October 7, 2016 at 11:55 am

    @germy:
    The guy behind the “Unskew” the polls website back in 2012, who had the real numbers that consistently showed that RMoney was going to win.

  207. 207.

    Matt McIrvin

    October 7, 2016 at 11:56 am

    @sigaba: Over on what remains of Google+ I’m currently watching this British nationalist guy repeatedly slag off on Americans for being horrible, hate-filled racists for supporting Trump, while simultaneously extolling the virtues of Brexit, and announcing that Britain was now ready to become the world’s leading superpower when the United States disintegrates.

  208. 208.

    germy

    October 7, 2016 at 11:56 am

    @Matt McIrvin:

    They’re undecided voters in Missouri. Anyone who is undecided in Missouri has got to be whiter than white, and right-leaning.

    Exactly

  209. 209.

    Gelfling 545

    October 7, 2016 at 11:57 am

    @MomSense: Since direct deposit became a thing I’ve worked for a couple of places where your first (and the last, as well) check had to be a printed check for some reason. No one ever said just what that reason was.

  210. 210.

    germy

    October 7, 2016 at 12:00 pm

    @SFAW: As much as I despise drumpf (my nephew was severely disabled and my WWII POW father suffered from undiagnosed PTSD), I really hate Mr. tobacco lobby Pence (“cigarettes don’t cause lung cancer!”) because I lost a favorite cousin to smoking-related lung disease.

    I want them stomped to fucking death this November.

  211. 211.

    Major Major Major Major

    October 7, 2016 at 12:00 pm

    @hovercraft: I also imagine the shy toriesracists would have come out in, I don’t know, 2012?

  212. 212.

    SFAW

    October 7, 2016 at 12:12 pm

    @germy:

    I want them stomped to fucking death this November.

    “Make it so, Number One.”

  213. 213.

    Larkspur

    October 7, 2016 at 12:12 pm

    There are no undecided voters except for the ones who don’t know whether they’ll vote at all, and by now those folks pretty much know what they’re going to do. Undecided voters are actually “decline to answer the question” voters, maybe because they’re nervous about stepping out publicly, but mostly because they like to fuck with the media and the polity in general.

  214. 214.

    Mnemosyne

    October 7, 2016 at 12:17 pm

    @workworkwork:

    I am a woman myself, but I have 4 older brothers, and I’ve definitely seen the dynamic in play where they can’t admit to feeling anxious or upset about something, so they pick a fight instead so those emotions have somewhere to go. It was the right thing to do to stand up for yourself because you don’t need the extra stress, but I think his picking the fight came out of a place of him not knowing any other way to deal with his worry and anxiety about your health.

  215. 215.

    Larkspur

    October 7, 2016 at 12:20 pm

    @Keith P.: I shouldn’t be surprised, but damn I hate to see a bank doing its very best to make money off of your situation – with the late fees and overdrafts and crap – all while they are using your money and making money off your money as well as the money you have to pay to get your money. If I could, I’d love to see you walk into the bank with Elizabeth Warren at your side. Banksters weeping and cowering and mewling, “Please, Keith, here is your money and here is the money we made off your money, and here is the refund of the stupid fees we charged you, please, Keith, just ask Senator Warren to leave…AIEEEEEE!” Then the surveillance video melts and you live happily ever after.

  216. 216.

    hovercraft

    October 7, 2016 at 12:20 pm

    @Major Major Major Major:
    Not overtly racist enough, they assumed that everyone was going to go out a get rid of the niclang, so they didn’t have to.

  217. 217.

    Mnemosyne

    October 7, 2016 at 12:26 pm

    @SFAW:

    I’ll bet she does a fabulous version of, “I Get A Kick Out Of You,” tho.

  218. 218.

    scuffletuffle

    October 7, 2016 at 12:38 pm

    @Keith P.: Banks around here do not put holds on paychecks. Make sure they know its your wages.

  219. 219.

    Sir Nose D'voidofucks (fka nastybrutishntall)

    October 7, 2016 at 12:48 pm

    Does anyone have any thoughts about this Obama Justice Department own-goal ? Deciding to send fewer election observers, this year in particular, without even being ordered to? What the everloving fuck is this shit. Lynch and Obama, deciding to let racists intimidate black voters just because it might be in violation of an SC decision? This is ridiculous caving-in.

  220. 220.

    workworkwork

    October 7, 2016 at 1:30 pm

    @Keith P.: Do you have a PayPal or something so we can pass the hat around?

    Would that be appropriate in this case?

  221. 221.

    workworkwork

    October 7, 2016 at 1:36 pm

    @a thousand flouncing lurkers (formerly fidelioscabinet): Yeah, as the oldest sib, he’s always been kind of a jerk. This did throw me, though. I walked a bunch of laps around the ward just to calm down.

  222. 222.

    workworkwork

    October 7, 2016 at 1:43 pm

    @Gin & Tonic:
    Thanks for sharing that.

    There may be a non-surgical option but I’m waiting to hear from a radiologist. (There was a bit of a bump in the count last night that suggested this as a possible outcome.)

    Also, while I’m in here, my wife has to be in respite care in a local nursing facility (M.S., etc.). We don’t have family in the area so I’m her primary caregiver.

    And, yeah, Rituxan is technically chemo. They won’t let any pregnant staff near me and for about 48-72 hours after the infusion I have to be careful about skin-to-skin contact. They even moved my next door roommate out so I have our shared bathroom to myself. (that part’s kind of nice, though.)

  223. 223.

    SFAW

    October 7, 2016 at 1:54 pm

    @Mnemosyne:

    I’ll bet she does a fabulous version of, “I Get A Kick Out Of You,” tho.

    If only she could do a duet with Cleavon Little. That would be awesome in so many ways. Oh well.

  224. 224.

    SFAW

    October 7, 2016 at 1:55 pm

    @workworkwork:

    Do you have a PayPal or something so we can pass the hat around?

    Or GoFundMe, maybe?

  225. 225.

    Origuy

    October 7, 2016 at 2:20 pm

    Someone on my Facebook feed posted:

    Magicians – our plan is working! The clown market shall soon be destroyed and all parties shall be ours! All OURS. Keep dressing up and acting creepy. We are almost there.

  226. 226.

    JR in WV

    October 7, 2016 at 2:27 pm

    @Chet:

    I misplaced a registration card, and went online to see how much it costs. I was able to complete a form online and pay with my usual credit card, the registration card came in the mail the next mail delivery. In the meantime, I could print out my online receipt as proof of registration if needed.

    So check it out, no waiting.

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